tvif;&eH@ *sme,f trSwf(1)?

'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf

v_id ;f awG
bma-umifh b,fvjdk zpfco
Jh vJ
okdufekdif0if;

'Drkdua&pDv_dif;awG bma=umifhjzpfay:cJhovJ? b,fvkdqifhuJjzpfxGef;cJh=uo

vJ? tm;vkH;od+yD;wJhtwkdif;ygyJ? 'Drkdua&pDv_dif;qkdwm EkdifiHawGtpkvkduftòyHvkduf 'Drkd
ua&pDpepfqD tcsed u f mvwcktwGi;f rSm ul;ajymif;vmwmukd &nf!e$ ;f wmjzpfygw,f?
ya'o&mZf/ oufOD;qHykdifbk&ifpepf/ zufqpf/ ukdvkdeD/ wygwDuGefjrLepf/ qkd&S,fvpf/
yk*~Kdvfa&;ukd;uG,fr_/ ppftm%m&SifpepfpwJh tkyfcsKyfr_ykHpHtrsKd;rsKd;uae 'Drkdua&pDul;
ajymif;r_jzpfpOf[m pdwf0ifpm;zG,faumif;ovkd/ twk,lp&mawG&Sdygw,f? 'Drkdua&pD
ul;ajymif;a&; ¶kef;uefóud;yrf;aewJh zGH@òzd;qJEkdifiHrsm;twGuf avhvmoifcef;pm ,lp&m
awG wif;=urf;jynfhjzpfygw,f?
orkdif;ukdjyef=unfh&if wkdif;jynftoD;oD;eJ@ EkdifiHa&;pepftrsKd;rsKd;rSm wlnDwJh
jzpf&yfawG&Sd+yD;/ wòydifeufwnf; wlnDwJhjzpfysufr_awG &Sdwwfygw,f? 1848 ckESpf
Oa&mywkid ;f jynfawGrmS awmfveS af &;awG trsm;}uD;jzpfcyhJ gw,f? 1968 ckEpS f urBmw h u
dk f
}uD;rsm;&JΠwkdif;jynftrsm;pkrSm tpkd;&qef@usifwJh ausmif;om;v_yf&Sm;r_awG jzpfcJhyg
w,f? vufwiftar&dueJ@ tmz&duwkdif;jynfawGrSm tm%modrf;yGJawG +cdrfh+cdrfhoJyJ?
'DvkdyJ wkdif;jynfawG 'Drkdua&pDul;ajymif;=ujyefawmhvnf; tkHeJ@usif;eJ@waysmfwyg;}uD;
‘v_dif;’ vkd@ukd wifpm;=u&w,f? 'ga=umifh 'Drkdua&pDul;ajymif;r_v_dif; ay:aygufatmif
wGef;ykd@ay;wJh aemufcHta=umif;t&if;awGukd avhvmqef;ppf=unfhoifhygw,f?

v_dif;awGjzpfcJhykH

tcsdefumvwcktwGif; EkdifiHawGtpkvkduftòyHvkduf 'Drkdua&pDul;ajymif;r_

jzpfpOfawGudk ajc&maumuf=unf&h atmif? yxrqk;H Ekid if aH jcmufcrk mS 'Dru dk a&pDjzpfxeG ;f
r_ (democratization) ukd,fpDjzpfay:w,fvkd@ ,lq=unfhyg? 'Drkdu&ufwkdufaZ;&Sif;
jzpfwmukd ‘x’ oauFweJ@ ukd,fpm;ðyxm;yg? EkdifiHajcmufckrSm ‘x’ awGjzpfcJhw,fxm;?
tcsed u
f mvwpfcrk mS tJ'EhD idk if aH jcmufct
k wGi;f ‘x’ awG bma=umifh jzpf&wmvJ? olw@dk rmS
‘x’ awG jzpfay:zkd@b,fvkdta=umif;&if;awGu wGef;ykd@wmvJ?
jzpfEkdifajcawGtrsm;}uD;&SdwJhteuf tjzpfEkdifqkH;ta=umif;w&m; av;csuf&Sd
ygw,f?
16
trSwf(1)? 'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf tvif;&eH@ *sme,f
(1) wpfckwnf;aomta=umif;w&m; (Single Cause)
Ekid if aH jcmufc&k ŒJ ‘x’ jzpf&yfajcmufcpk vk;H [m wpfcw
k nf;aomta=umif;w&m;
a=umifhjzpfcJhw,f? wpfckwnf;aomta=umif;w&m;qkdwmu tiftm;}uD; plyg yg0g
topf ay:xGufvmjcif;rsKd; (okd@) EkdifiHwumqufqHa&;rSm t"duuswJhtm%mcGJa0r_
tajymif;tvJawG&Sdvmjcif;rsKd;jzpfw,f? tjcm;vl@tzGJ@tpnf; trsm;tjym;tay:
tusK;d *,uf jzpfapr,fph pfy}JG uD;awG ta&;}uD;wJjh zpf&yf ta=umif;&if;rsK;d awGjzpfw,f?
Oyrm/ 'kwd,urBmppfrSm r[mrdwfwkd@atmifyGJcHEkdifr_ t"duta=umif;w&m;u
EkdifiHtcsKdŒrSm ‘x’ &vm'fawG zGH@òzd;apcJhw,f? 1945 eJ@ 1946 rSm vufwiftar&du
wkdif;jynftrsm;pk[m 'Drkdua&pDpdwf0ifpm;vm+yD; trsKd;om;a¶G;aumufyGJawG ukd,fpD
usif;yvm=uw,f? 'Dvkd t"duwGef;ykd@ay;wJh yifrta=umif;w&m;ukd ‘A’ tjzpf
oauFwxm;vkdufyg? 'gqkd yifrta=umif;w&m;ukd ‘A’ a=umifh EkdifiHajcmufckrSm 'Drkd
u&ufwkdufaZ;&Sif; ‘x’ awG ukd,fpDjzpfay:cJh&w,f?
x1
x2
A x3
x4
x5
x6

(2) t+ydKifzGH@+zdK;r_ (parallel development)

Ekid if aH jcmufc[
k m pD;yGm;a&;zG@H òzd;r_toD;oD;a=umifh 'Dru dk a&pDqaD ¶GŒvmcJw h ,f?
olwkd@&JŒ pD;yGm;a&;tòydifzGH@òzd;r_[m ‘x’ awG ukd,fpDjzpf xGef;cJhygw,f? okd@aomf EkdifiH
ajcmufc[ k m pDymG ;a&;zG@H òzd;r_a=umifh ‘x’ awG ay:xGwcf ahJ yr,f/h pDymG ;a&;zG@H òzd;r_ypHk aH wGu
ukd,fhvrf;a=umif;eJ@ukd,f jzpfaeygw,f? wpfEkdifiHu wpfOD;csif;0ifaiGeJ@trsKd;om;xkwf
ukef (GNP) jrifw h ma=umifjh zpfr,f? tjcm;Ekid if u
H pmwwfajrmufrE_ e_ ;f tm;aumif;vk@d
jzpfr,f? tjcm;EkdifiHu vlvufwef;pm;eJ@ tqifhjrifhenf;ynma=umifhjzpfr,f?
'DEidk if aH jcmufcpk vk;H rSm 'Dru
dk a&pDjzpfxeG ;f zk@d pD;yGm;a&;zG@H òzd;r_ a&cHajrcHaumif;
aew,f? ukd,fhjynfwGif; ukd,fcHtm;ukd,fpDa=umifh wcsdefwnf; wòydifeufwnf; ‘x’
awG jzpfapcJhw,f? 'gayr,fh pD;yGm;a&zGH@òzd;r_ta=umif;w&m;u wausmif;w*gxmvkd
jzpfwJh twGuf vGwfvyfwJhudef;&Sif (a1,a2,a3) tjzpf ,lygr,f?
a1 x1
a2 x2
a3 x3
a4 x4
a5 x5
a6 x6

(3) ESif;abmvkH;jzpfpOf (Snowballing)

EkdifiHwEkdifiHrSm ‘x’ ukd jzpfapwJh ta&;}uD;wJh ta=umif;w&m;u tjcm;wkdif;jynf
awGrmS vnf; ‘x’ jzpf&yftoD;oD;awG ay:xGuaf pygw,f? Ekid if w H pfEidk if &H ŒJ xl;jcm;xif&mS ;

17
tvif;&eH@ *sme,f trSwf(1)? 'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf

vGef;wJh EkdifiHa&;jzpf&yf[m tjcm;urBmhwkdif;jynfrsm;twGuf todynmeJ@oifcef;pm

,lp&mtjzpf csufcsif;ul;oGm;apygw,f?
txl;ojzifh qENjyyGJ&v'fawGu tjcm;EkdifiHawGukd tm;usap+yD;/ tvm;wl qEN
jy+yD; tpkd;&qef@usifðzwfcsr_rsKd;awG tjcm;EkdifiHrsm;rSm jzpfvmapygw,f? 'Dvkd xl;jcm;
wJhjzpf&yfwpfcku EkdifiHwpfEkdifiHrSm ‘x’ukd jzpfapr,f? tJ'Dh ‘x’u tjcm;EkdifiHawGrSm
yk H p H w l r sKd ; awG w rk [ k w f c sif ; quf j zpf o G m ;+yD ; ES i f ; qk y f v k H ; ypf a yguf v k d u f o vk d
t[kefjyif;jyif; jyef@usJxGufoGm;ygw,f?
x4
x2

x5

a1 x1 x3
x6

(4) acwfpm;vmwJh ukd;q,fhajcmufyg;aq; (Prevailing nostrum)

EkdifiHtoD;oD;rSm ‘x’ ukd jzpfapcJhwJh rlvta=umif;&if;cHawGu vkH;0rwlbJ
wpfausmif;wpf*gxmwpf¶Gmwpfyk'fvkd uJGjym;aer,f? okd@aomf tJ'Dh rwlwJhjy\em
awG óuHae&wJh EkdifiHtoD;oD;[m olwkd@udpPukd wkef@jyefajz&Sif;zkd@ aq;!$ef;wpfckwnf;
ukdyJ ,kH,kH=unf=unf rsufpdrSdwfukdifqGJvkduf=uw,f?
vlajcmufa,muf[m a&m*gwpfa,mufwpfrsK;d jzpfaeayr,fh &rf;ukay;wJh aq;0g;
wpfrsKd;wnf;yJ twlwlrsKd=uovkd/ EkdifiHajcmufEkdifiH[mvnf; olwkd@&JΠwpfausmif; wpf
*gxm jy\empkHukdajz&Sif;zkd@&m tpkd;&ajymif;vJa&;ykHpHrSmyJ twlvm xdrd=uygw,f?
wpfEkdifiHu aiGa=u;azmif;yGr_ óuHae&w,f/ aemufwpfEkdifiHu Oya'pkd;rkd;r_ ysufjym;ae
w,f/ aemufwpfEidk if u H vnf; pD;yGm;a&;usqif;+yD; tvkyv f ufrxhJ al er,f? tjcm;Ekid if H
wpfcku ppfa&;¶_H;edrfhvkd@jzpfr,f pojzifh?
'Dvjdk zpf&yfrsK;d rSm/ Ekid if aH wG&ŒJ oD;jcm;jy\em ta=umif;w&m;uk, d pf u
D dk (a1,b2,c3)
pojzifx h m;? olw@dk &ŒJ jy\emrsm;twGuf ,k, H =Hk unf=unfupk m;tajz&SmwJh enf;vrf;
wlnrD u _ dk (z) vkd@,l? aemufqkH; EkdifiHajcmufEkdifiHrSm ‘x’ awG toD;oD;xGufvmygawmh
w,f?
a1 z x1
a2 z x2
a3 z x3
a4 z x4
a5 z x5
a6 z x6

tckazmfjycJhwJh 'Drkdua&pDv_dif;rsm;tay: zGifhqkd&Sif;vif;csufav;ck[m b,f

tcsdef b,ftcgrSmrqkd a¶GŒvsm;aewwf+yD;/ EkdifiHa&;v_dif;awGukd ajz&Sif;jyzkd@ óud;pm;
tm;xkwfwJhtcgwkdif; xnfhoGif;pOf;pm;xm;&r,fh armf',fawGyJjzpfygw,f?

18
trSwf(1)? 'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf tvif;&eH@ *sme,f
vGwfvyfudef;&Sifrsm;

okd@aomf bma=umifh'Drkdua&pD ul;ajymif;vm=uovJqkdwJh ta=umif;&if;cH

jy\em[m vG,v f , G uf ul rl [kwyf gb;l ? tcsKŒd uawmh wpfa=umif;qGaJ jymw,f? vlr_
a&;/ pD;yGm;a&;zGH@+zdK;r_eJ@ 'Drkdu&ufwpftifpwDusL;&Sif;jzpfxGef;r_[m vkH;0qufpyfae
w,f? csr;f omwJh Ekid if t H m;vk;H [m 'Dru dk &ufwpfawGjzpfovk/d 'Dru dk a&pDwidk ;f [mvnf;
csr;f om=uw,fqw dk mrsK;d / y¶kw
d ufpwifb h mom[m 'Dru dk a&pD&ŒJ a&cHajrcHyq J w
dk mrsK;d ?
trSefawmh jy\emu 'Dxufykd¶_yfaxG;ygw,f? trsm;pkxifovkd tm%m
&Sifukd z,f&Sm;vkduf&if 'Drkdua&pDjzpfua&mqkdwmrsKd;u vufawG@rSmcufygw,f? 'Drkd
ua&pDr[kwfwJhtpkd;&wpfckukd z,f&Sm;vkduf+yD;/ vufawG@rSm 'Drkdua&pDjzpfvmzkd@xuf/
aemufxyf 'Drkdua&pDr[kwfwJh tpkd;&wpfckyJ tpm;0ifvmwmrsKd;awG &Sdwwfygw,f?
tm%m&SifpepftqkH;owfr_[m 'Drkdua&pD wef;wef;rwfrwfjzpfay:r_ukd OD;rwnfbJ
a0hvnfvrf;acsmfr_awG&Sdygw,f?
aemuf+yD; tm%m&Siftpkd;&wpfck&JΠpD;yGm;a&;qkwf,kwfusqif;r_u tJ'Dh
tpkd;&ukd csdeJ@apygw,f? okd@aomf tm%m&Siftpkd;&wpfck&JΠatmifjrifwJhpD;yGm;a&;
ukdifwG,fr_u 'Drkdua&pDjzpfxGef;zkd@ tajccHaumif;awG jzpfvmwwfjyefa&m?
b,fvkdyJjzpfjzpf ay:vpDqHk;jzwfolrsm; ESvkH;oGif;xm;&rSmu ‘'Drkdu&uf
wkdufaZ;&Sif;’ vkd@ qkdvkduf&if tqifhokH;qifhyg0ifw,f qkdwmygyJ? (1)tm%m&Sifpepf
tqk;H owfr/_ (2)'Dru dk &ufwpftyk cf sKyfa&; wyfqiftoufoiG ;f r_/ (3)'Dru dk a&pDtyk cf sKyf
a&; ,E W&m; uspfvpfckdifrmapr_wkd@ygyJ? tJ'Dh tqifhokH;qifhzGH@òzd;apzkd@u rsm;pGmaom
ta=umif;tcsufawG pOf;pm;wGufcsufEkdifzkd@vkdygr,f?
'Drkdu&ufwkdufaZ;&Sif;awGavhvmzkd@qkd&if oDtkd&Drsm;pGmeJ@ tcsuftvuf
aygi;f rsm;pGm &Sad eygvrd rhf ,f? wpfa=umif;qGeJ @J r&bJ vGwv f yf+yD; rlaor[kww f hJ ude;f &Sif
(independent variables) aygif;rsm;pGm pOf;pm;&ygr,f? 'Drkdu&ufwkdufaZ;&Sif;eJ@'Drkd
ua&pDukdjzpfapwJh ta=umif;&if;awG udef;&SifawGu atmufygtwkdif;jzpfEkdif ygw,f?
- pD;yGm;a&;"eºuG,f0r_ tqifhjrifhrm;r_
- "eESifh 0ifaiGtcsKd;tpm; cGJa0jzef@jzL;&mrSm r#wr_
- aps;uGufpD;yGm;a&;
- pD;yGm;a&;zGH@òzd;r_eJ@ vlr_armf'efEkdufaZ;&Sif;
- uHau|;csajr&Sifya'o&mZfpepf ysufokOf;r_
- t&if;&SifblZGmtm;aumif;r_ (blZGmr&Sd&if/ 'Drkdua&pDr&Sd)
- vlvwfwef;pm;tv$m tm;aumif;r_
- pmwwfajrmufr_E_ef;eJ@ ynma&;a&csdefjrifhr_
- pm;okH;olOD;wnfwJh ,Ofaus;r_
- y¶kdwufpwifhbmom0ifvlOD;a&eJ@ wkdif;jynfrsm;
- vlr_A[k0g'eJ@ ynmwwftkyfpktm;}uD;r_
19
tvif;&eH@ *sme,f trSwf(1)? 'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf

- EkdifiHa&;wGif vlxkyg0ifyl;aygif;aqmif¶Gufr_ESifh ygwDòydifqkdifr_

- vlr_tkyfpkrsm;twGif;Yyif 'Drkdua&pD,Ofaus;r_vkyfxkH;&Sdjcif;
- t&yfom;tay: t=urf;zufESdyfpufr_ avsmhenf;jcif;
- EkdifiHa&;tpGef;a&mufr_/ wyfOD;u|Hr_rsm; avsmhenf;jcif;
- EkdifiHa&;acgif;aqmifrsm;. 'Drkdua&pDa&csdef jrifhrm;r_
- +Adwdo#ukdvkdeDb0 tawG@tóuHaumif; vufcH&,lwwfr_
- qef@usifbuftjrifoabmxm;tay: onf;cHEkdifonfhtavhtx
- tay;t,ltav#mhtwif;ukd azmufjyefonf[krjrifjcif;
- 'Drkdua&pDvkdvm;onfhEkdifiH}uD;u 0ifa&mufodrf;ykdufajymif;vJay;jcif;
- 'Drkdua&pDEkdifiH}uD;rsm;. =oZmv$rf;rkd;r_
- Oya'ESifh wpfOD;csif;tcGifhta&; av;pm;r_tpOftvm tavhtx
- rsKd;EG,fpk/ bmoma&;/ vlrsKd;a&;axGjym;r_ukd vufcHEkdifpGrf;
- EkdifiHa&;ESifh vlr_wefzkd;rsm;tay: trsm;qENvufcHr_
- yk*~Kdvfa&;ukd;uG,fvGef;r_r&Sdjcif;eJ@ tm%m&Sifacgif;aqmifaoqkH;r_
- òrdŒjyjzpfxGef;jcif;/ pufr_xGef;um;jcif;
txufaz: jyyg tcsuftvufrsm;[m 'Drkdua&pDeJ@ 'Drkdu&ufwkdufaZ;&Sif;
jzpfatmifyHhykd;ay;wJh oDtkd&Dta=umif;&if;cHrsm;yJ jzpfygw,f? okd@aomf 'Drkdu&ufwkduf
aZ;&Sif;ta=umif;w&m;rsm;[m wpfae&meJ@ wpfae&m/ wpfcsdefrSwpfcsdef trsKd;rsKd;
uGmjcm;aewwfygw,f? tJh'Dvkdta=umif;w&m; trsKd;rsKd;uGmjcm;jcif;u atmufyg
tqdkðycsufrsm; xkwfay;ygw,f?
(1) Ekid if w
H pfEidk if H (ok@d ) wkid ;f jynftm;vk;H &JŒ 'Dru dk a&pDz@HG òzd;r_udk &Si;f jyzk@d vkaH vmuf
wJhwpfckwnf;aom ta=umif;tcsuftvufqkdwm r&dS?
(2) wkdif;jynftm;vkH; 'Drkdua&pDzGH@òzd;apzkd@ wpfckwnf;aom ta=umif;tcsufqkd
wmr&SdEkdif? rvkdtyf?
(3) wkid ;f jynfwpfcpk &D ŒJ 'Dru dk &ufwu dk af Z;&Si;f jzpfpOfqw dk m ta=umif;w&m;rsK;d pkH
aygif;pkHpkpnf;r_&JŒ&v'fjzpf?
(4) 'Drkdua&pDukd xkwfvkyfay;wJh ta=umif;w&m;aygif;pkH[m EkdifiHwpfckeJ@wpfck
uGmjcm;?
(5) v_id ;f wpfcu k jdk zpfay:apwJh ta=umif;w&m;rsm;eJ@ tjcm;v_id ;f wpfcu k jdk zpfapwJh
ta=umif;w&m;rsm; uGmjcm;?

wwd,v_dif;ukdqef;ppfjcif;

wwd,v_dif; 'Drkdu&ufwkdufaZ;&Sif;ukd qef;ppfzkd@qkd&if ar;cGef;ESpfckukd t&if

ajz=unfzh @dk vkyd gr,f? yxr tJ'w
hD wd,v_id ;f rSm Ekid if o
H ;Hk q,favmufyJ tm%m&Sipf epf
uae 'Drkdua&pDqD ul;ajymif;cJh+yD;/ tjcm;EkdifiHwpf&mausmfu bma=umifh rul;ajymif;
20
trSwf(1)? 'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf tvif;&eH@ *sme,f
EkdifwmvJ? 'kwd, tJ'Dh EkdifiHawG&JΠtpkd;&tajymif;tvJ[m 1970ESpfrsm;eJ@ 1980jynfh
vGefESpfrsm;rSmjzpfcJh+yD; 'Dht&if bmvkd@rjzpfwmvJ?
yxrar;cGef;eJ@ywfoufvkd@ajym&&if EkdifiHawG[m tm%m&Sifpepfuae 'Drkd
ua&pDuu dk ;l ajymif;ovm; rul;ajymif;bl;vm;qkw d mu xdEk idk if aH wG&dS tm%m&Sit
f pk;d &
rsm;&J@ oabmobm0taetxm;ay:rSm wnfEkdifygw,f? wwd,v_dif;rSm 'Drkdua&pD
ul;ajymif;vmwJh tpkd;&awG&JŒykHpHu trsKd;rsKd;ygyJ? wygwDpepf/ ppftpkd;&/ yk*~Kdvfa&;xl
axmifwJh tm%m&Sifpepf/ tom;ta&mif vlrsKd;a&;cGJjcm;r_pepfawG yg0ifygw,f?
'DEkdifiHawG&JŒtm%m&Sifuae 'Drkdua&pDul;ajymif;ykHukd =unfh&if ykHpH (5)rsKd;
(five pattern) xkwf,lEkdifygw,f?

oHo&mvnfykHpH (cyclical pattern)

tcsKŒd wkid ;f jynfawG[m 'Dru
dk a&pDe@J tm%m&Sipf epft=um; a&SŒwk;d aemufiif
vGef;xkd;+yD; wvSnfhpDjzpfaeygw,f? 'DykHpH[m vufwiftar&duu tm*sifwD;em;/
b&mZD;/ yD¶l;/ bkdvD;AD;,m; tDauGa'gwkd@eJ@ wl&uD/ Ekduf*sD;,m;wkd@rSmjzpfcJhygw,f?
tm%m&Sifjzpfvkduf/ 'Drkdua&pDjzpfvkduf/ tm%m&Sifjyefjzpfvkduf pojzifh? vltrsm;a¶G;
cs,fwJh 'Drkdua&pDtpkd;&rsm;eJ@ acgif;rmwJh tm%m&Sifpepftpkd;&rsm;t=um; vl;vm;
qefcwf jzpfaeygw,f?
'Drkdua&pDtpkd;&rsm;atmufrSm/ tpGef;a&muft,l0g'&Sdr_/ t*wdvkdufpm;r_/
rwnf+idrfr_awG[m vufrcHEkdifwJh taetxm;tqifha&mufvm+yD; ppfwyfuðzwfcsr_
awGtxd jzpfvmw,f? wcg ppftpkd;&uvnf; wkdif;jynfpD;yGm;a&;jy\em rukdifwG,f
wwfr_eJ@ ppfAkdvfawG t&yfbuf tvGeftu|H0ifpGufvmr_awGa=umifh jynfolu zdtm;
ay;vkd@ a¶G;aumufyGJawG jyefusif;yay;&w,f? 'Drkdua&pDwvSnfh tm%m&Sif wvSnfhpD
jzpfaewmukdu 'Dwkdif;jynfawG&JŒEkdifiHa&;pepfvkd@ ajym&rvm;yJ?

'kwd,t}udrf}udK;pm;r_ykHpH (second - try pattern)

tm%m&SifpepfeJ@wkdif;jynf[m 'Drkdua&pDqDul;ajymif;vmw,f? 'gayr,fh
ajymif;vmwJh'Drkdu&ufwpfpepf[m ratmifjrifbJusqkH;oGm;jyefw,f? ta=umif;u
awmh tJ'w hD idk ;f jynfrmS 'Dru
dk a&pDtwGuv f t
dk yfwhJ vlrt_ ajccHawGr&Sv d @dk / 'Dru
dk &ufwpf
acgif;aqmifopfawGuvnf; tpGef;a&mufay:vpDeJ@ t,l0g'awGuae ru|wfEkdifao;
vkd@/ pD;yGm;a&;uyfeJ@ ppfyGJawGóuHawG@cJh&vkd@ pojzifh? aemufqkH; tm%m&Siftpkd;&yJ
tcsdefumvwpfckxd tm%mjyefukdifcJhygw,f?
okd@aomf 'Dwkdif;jynfawGu 'kwd,t}udrf 'Drkdua&pDpepf&atmif ykdóud;pm;
=uw,f? t&if'rD u dk a&pDusio hf ;Hk &mrSm ratmifjrifcw hJ mawGudk acgi;f aqmifawGu oif
cef;pm,l=uw,f? *smr%D/ tDwvD/ *syef/ =op}wD;,m;/ ukdvHbD,m/ pydef/ ay:wl*D/
*&d/ ukd&D;,m;/ csuf/ ykdvefwkd@[m 'kwd,v_dif;rSm ratmifjrifcJhwmukd oifcef;pm,l+yD;
wwd,v_dif;rSm wkd;wufatmifjrifatmif vkyfaqmifcJh=uygw,f?
21
tvif;&eH@ *sme,f trSwf(1)? 'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf

wef@&yfwkH@qkdif;ykHpH (interrupted democracy)

tcsKdŒwkdif;jynfawG[m umv=um&Snf 'Drkdua&pDwnf&Sdxdef;odrf;+yD;om;
jzpfcJhw,f? okd@aomf tcsdefwpfckrSm rwnf+idrfr_/ tpGef;a&mufr_/ qkd&S,fvpfpepfpwJh
tajctaeawGa=umifh olwkd@&JΠ&SdESifh+yD;om;'Drkdua&pD[m wef@&yfqkdif;iHoGm;cJhw,f?
1970 ESpfrsm;rSm tdENd,eJ@zdvpfykdifrSm 'Drkdua&pDacgif;aqmifrsm;&JΠnHhzsif;r_
a=umifh =um;jywfoGm;cJhygw,f? O¶ka*G;eJ@ csDvDwkd@rSmvnf; a¶G;aumufcH'Drkdua&pD
acgi;f aqmifrsm;nHzh si;f r_a=umifh ppfacgi;f aqmifawG tm%modr;f cJw h ,f? 'gayr,fh tJ'h D
wkid ;f jynfrsm;&JŒ&Snvf sm;wJh 'Dru
dk a&pDtawG@tóuHrsm;a=umifh tm%m&Sif wdr;f !$wcf sif
olawGu 'Drkdua&pDusifhokH;r_awGukd vkH;0rz,f&Sm;EkdifcJhygbl;?

wkduf&kduful;ajymif;r_ (direct transition)

wnf+idrfaewJh tm%m&Sifpepfwpfckuae wnf+idrfwJh'Drkdua&pDpepfqD ¶kwf
w&uful;ajymif;oGm;jcif;rsKd;ygyJ? 'DjzpfpOfrSm tm%m&Sifpepfukd 'Drkdua&pDpepfu
¶kww f &uftpm;xk;d ,lEidk jf cif;eJ@ tm%m&Sipf epfatmufrmS ykrH eS q
f ifu
h w
J ;dk wufaer_awG
&Sdygw,f? ¶kdar;eD;,m;/ bla*;&D;,m/ xkdif0rf/ ruUpDukd/ *GgwDrmvm/ t,fvfqmaA;'kd;/
[Gef'l;&yfeJ@ eDum&m*Ggwkd@[m 'DykHpHeJ@teD;pyfqkH;ygyJ?

ukdvkdeDy,fzsufa&;ykHpH (decolonization pattern)

'Drkdua&pDEkdifiH}uD;wcku ol&JŒukdvkdeDwkdif;jynfawGukd 'Drkdu&ufwpftifpwD
usL;&Sif;awG csrSwfusifhokH;apw,f? ukdvkdeDwkdif;jynfav;u vGwfvyfa&;vnf;&vm
a&m [kd;t&ifu vGwfvyfa&;&wJhEkdifiHrsm;eJ@rwlbJ/ olwkd@rSm&Sdxm;wJh 'Drkdu&ufwpf
tifpwDusL;&Sif; tavhtxaumif;awGukd xdef;odrf;=uw,f? ygyl0ge,l;*DeD[m tJ'Dh
EkdifiHrsKd;jzpfw,f? 'kdrDeDuef/ pdef@Aif;qifh/ aqmfvrGefu|ef;/ wlAvl; pwJh EkdifiHi,fav;rsm;
[m +Adwdo#tifyg,m&JΠtarGaumif;rsm;ukd vufcHxdef;odrf;EkdifcJh=uygw,f?

tckazmfjycJhwJhykHpHrsKd;ukd oauFweJ@ukd,fpm;jyef+yD; ykHazmf=unfhygr,f? ‘A’

u umvwm&SnfwJh tm%m&Sifpepf/ ‘D’ u wnf+idrfwm&SnfwJh 'Drkdua&pD/ ‘a’ u
umvwkd tm%m&Sifpepf/ ‘d’ u oufwrf;wkd rwnf+idrf'Drkdua&pD 'DoauFwrsm;eJ@
'Drkdua&pDzGH@òzd;r_ykHpH (5)rsKd;ukd ykHazmfcs=unfhEkdifygw,f?

(1) oHo&mvnf cyclical

a d a d a d
(2) 'kwd,t}udrfóud;pm;r_ second - type
A d a D
(3) qkdif;iHh'Drkdua&pD interrupted democracy
A D a D

22
trSwf(1)? 'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf tvif;&eH@ *sme,f
(4) wkduf¶kduful;ajymif;r_ direct transition
A D
(5) ukdvkdeDzsufodrf;r_ decolonization
D/a D

wwd,v_dif;rSm 'Drkdua&pDul;ajymif;cJhwJh EkdifiHtm;vkH;rSm tJ'DhykHpH (5)cku

okdif;0kdif;yg0ifaew,f? 1974 eJ@ 1990 t=um; 'Drkdua&pD ul;ajymif;cJhwJhEkdifiH (39)EkdifiH
teuf (23)EkdifiH[m ,cif 'Drkdua&pDtawG@tóuH&Sd+yD;om;rsm; jzpfygw,f? ,cif ul;
ajymif;wkef;u ratmifjrifcJhwJhtawG@tóuHukd jyefvnfoifcef;pm,lcJh=uygw,f?
aemuful;ajymif;cJhwJh EkdifiHawG&JŒtwGif;ykdif;rSm tòydifzGH@òzd;r_awG&SdcJhygw,f? 'Dtcsuf
rsm;u 'Drkdua&pDul;ajymif;cJhwJhEkdifiHrsm;eJ@ rul;ajymif;wJhEkdifiHrsm;t=um; jcm;em;csuf
jzpfygw,f?

'kwd,ar;cGef;/ 1970/ 1980/ 1990 jynfhvGefESpfrsm;usrS tpkd;&tajymif;

tvJawG bma=umifhjzpf&ovJ? 'Dht&ifu bmvkd@ rjzpfovJ? t"dutcsufuawmh
‘jynfolvlxk&JŒ vGwfvyfr_tmomqEN’ [m ykd+yD;}uD;rm;ysHESH@vmjcif;a=umifhygyJ?
uGejf rLepf/ qk&d , S vf pf wygwpD epfrsm;&JΠzdEydS cf sKyfcs,rf r_ sm;/ tm%m&Siq f efrr_ sm;/ pD;yGm;
a&;ratmifjrifrr_ sm;/ vl@tcGit hf a&;qdwo f Ok ;f r_rsm;ukd jynforl sm;u tqk;H pGef ¶G&H mS pdwf
ukefvmjcif;a=umifh jzpfygw,f?
aemuf tJ'q hD ,fcEk pS rf sm;rSm tajymif;tvJ (5)csuu f wwd,v_id ;f rSm yg0if
cJhwJhwkdif;jynfawGukd wGef;ykd@ay;ygw,f?
(1) 'Drkdu&ufwpfwefzkd;awGukd urBmrSm us,fus,fjyef@jyef@vufcHvm+yD;
tm%m&SifpepfawGrSm w&m;0ifr_ (legitimacy) jy\emóuHawG@vm&yg
w,f? pD;yGm;a&;usqif;r_/ 1970 jynfhvGefESpfrsm; a&eHaps;a&Smhjzpfr_awG
a=umifh w&m;0ifr_avsmhus vmcJhygw,f?
(2) 1960 jynfhvGefrsm;rSm róuHpzl;wJh urBmhpD;yGm;a&;wkd;wufr_ &SdcJhygw,f?
vlaer_tqifhtwef;jrifhrm;r_/ ynma&;jrifhrm;r_/ wkdif;jynftrsm;pkrSm òrdŒjy
vlvwfwef;pm; tjyef@us,fvmr_?
(3) 1963-65 rSm 'kw, d t}udrf AmwDuefaumifpu D uufovpfb&k m;ausmif;
rsm;&JŒ t,ltqeJ@ aqmif¶GufcsufawGrSm t}uD;tus,ftajymif; tvJ
vkyfcJhygw,f? trsKd;om;bk&m;ausmif;rsm;rSm ðyjyifajymif;vJr_awG vkyf+yD;
vlr_a&;/ pD;yGm;a&;eJ@ EkdifiHa&;ðyjyifr_awGukd axmufcHaqmif¶Gufygw,f?
(4) jynfyEkdifiHrsm;rSm ay:vpDtajymif;tvJawG &SdcJhygw,f? 1960 jynfhvGef
aESmif;ykid ;f rSm Oa&mybkt H zG@J u tzG@J 0ifw;dk csŒJ a&; t,ltqopfpwifc?Jh tar
&dueftpk;d &u 1974 rSm tjcm;wkid ;f jynfawGrmS 'Dru dk a&pDe@J vl@tcGihf ta&;
wk;d jr‡ivhf yk af qmifz@dk t"durl0g' tajymif;tvJvyk cf ?hJ 1980 jynfv h eG rf sm;rSm
23
tvif;&eH@ *sme,f trSwf(1)? 'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf

qkAd ,
D uf,el ,D &H ŒJ tifyg,mxde;f xm;a&;rludk a*:bmacsmAh u f ajymif;vJypf
cJhw,f?
(5) ESif;abmvkH;jzpfpOf (okd@) qENjyyGJrsm;&JŒtusKd;oufa&mufr_? owif;quf
oG,af &;wk;d wufvmr_a=umifh Ekid if w
H Ekid if &H ŒJ 'Dru
dk a&pDawmif;qkq
d ENjyr_[m
tjcm; rxifrSwfwJhEkdifiHawGqD tvsiftjreful;qufoGm;+yD; wwd,v_dif;
jzpfapzkd@ wGef;tm;ay;cJhw,f?

txufazmfjyyg 'Drkdu&ufwkdufaZ;&Sif;v_dif; ta=umif;w&m;rsm;[m

zGH@òzd;qJEkdifiHrsm;rSm 'Drkdua&pDazmfaqmifolrsm; (democratizers) twGuf wpkHw&m
vrf;!$efr_rsm;ygyJ? ?

&nf!$ef; - The Third Wave: by Samuel P. Huntington

'Drdkua&pDEdkifiHwpfckrSm vlrGJawGu vlcsrf;omawGxuf

tm%mydk&Sdvdrfhr,f/ bmjzpfvdk@vnf;qdkawmh vlrGJOD;a&u ydkrsm;+yD;/
vlrsm;pk&@J qENu t"duusv@kd ygy?J
t&pPwdkw,fvf (bDpD 384-322)
*&dvlrsdK; tawG;tac:ynm&Sif

twdu k t
f cHawGukd b,favmufvw
G v
f yfciG jhf yKvnf;qdw
k meJ@
'Drdkua&pDudk wdkif;wm&r,f?
tufbD a[mhzfref; (1936-1989)
tar&duefvlrsdK; vlr_a&;ESifh
Edik if aH &;wufºuGvy_ &f mS ;ol

tm%m&Sifpepf&J@ taumif;qHk;vufeufu vSsdK@0Sufa&;jzpfayr,fh/

'Drdkua&pD&J@ taumif;qHk;vufeufu yGifhvif;r_jzpfw,f?
Edkif;vfpf bdk&f (1885-1962)
'def;rwfvlrsdK; &lyaA'ynm&Sif/
1922 ckESpf &lyaA'EdkA,fvfqk&Sif

24