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2Q13 Power Transactions and Trends
2Q13 Power Transactions and Trends
Contents
Q2 2013 activity and outlook..... 2 Global snapshot......................... 4 Spotlight.................................... 6 UK water sector heats up Transaction volume and value.... 7 Global contacts.......................... 8
Section 1
Q2 2013 activity and outlook: mega deals spark global M&A activity
M&A rebounds on the back of a handful of big ticket deals as search for growth continues
Generation*
T&D Americas
Renewables Europe
Asia-Pacic
*Excludes two deals in Africa with a combined value of US$426m in the generationsegment.
1 NRG Yield files for up to $400 million IPO, Reuters, www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/07/ us-nrgyield-ipo-idUSBRE9560KI20130607, 7 June 2013.
2 Centrica, Qatar Petroleum Buy Suncor Assets, The Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/ article/SB10001424127887324030704578423990527940454.html, 13 April 2013 3 State Grid Corp buys 60pc of Singapore Powers Australian assets, The Australian, www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/state-grid-corp-buys-60pc-of-singaporepowers-australian-assets/story-e6frg9df-1226645099071, 17 May 2013. 4 China State Grid Buys Stake in SP AusNet for A$824 Million, Bloomberg, www.bloomberg. com/news/2013-05-17/china-state-grid-buys-19-9-stake-in-sp-ausnet-for-a-824-million.html, 17May 2013.
Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Total deal value (US$b) Deal volume
Expand geographical Integrated presence and customer base Achieve cost-and-revenue synergies by allocating resources and capex more effectively Access to strategic interconnection point in European gas markets; part of Totals divestment strategy Expansion in regulated European market to add stable cash flows Access to North American shale gas supplies; produce greater proportion of energy from own assets Integrated
5 Apr
France
3,119
T&D
17 Jun
Hong Kong Consortium led by Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Centrica Plc; Qatar Petroleum International UK; Qatar
1,257
15 Apr
Suncor Energy (South and Central Albertabased gas and oil assets)
Canada
987
Transaction outlook
T ransactions in the US power sector will continue as utilities struggle to manage growth. Sponsors will be active in generation opportunities. Look for lower utility valuations as the Federal Reserve tapers its bond-buying program. E uropean asset sales are expected to ramp up after a relatively quiet quarter. Countries including Turkey, Finland and Greece are expected to expedite privatization plans, bringing regulated assets into the market. In Germany, grid divestment by EnBW and operating wind farms are likely to be on the watch-list of investors. The Q2 slowdown in asset sales looks to be more a matter of timing than an issue of problematic market conditions, as we anticipate further grid divestments in Norway, Sweden and Finland later this year or early next year. But any reduction in buyer appetite would be troubling for large players with big divestment programs underway: in many cases, capital has been committed to projects elsewhere or to reduce leverage.
E merging nations will continue to witness capital inflows, particularly from Western Europe, where weak energy demand has eroded margins. While E.ON has targeted Russia, Brazil and Turkey for growth investments in 20132014, RWE is looking to increase investments in Eastern Europe. Enel will continue to build presence in Latin America, with the percentage of earnings from Italy and Spain versus growth markets to reach 5050 by 2017. O utbound Chinese M&A will continue as the search for strong regulated assets continues. The 42% stake in New Zealands second-largest electricity and gas distribution company, PowerCo, is likely to attract interest. Regulated assets in Western Europe will continue to be a focus. C hinese power companies and Japanese trading houses are emerging as major financiers of African renewable energy projects, which saw investment quadruple to US$9.3b in 2012. The trend is likely to continue with African nations opening up markets for foreign investors in exchange for capital.
Section 2
Global snapshot
Spain
There is continued uncertainty on renewable energy regulation as the debate over subsidies between utilities and government heats up; the latest news is that subsidies will be cut and a more complex formula will be introduced for determining the guaranteed income that producers receive for the electricity they generate from wind and solar energy projects. In May 2013, Iberdrola and Acciona lodged separate appeals against the latest decree abolishing support for renewable energy in the form of feed-in tariffs. The Government intends to impose a cap on profitability across all renewable technologies. If applied, this is expected to push developers toward emerging markets with more favorable regulation, sparking M&A.
Turkey
Turkey is preparing to launch a new energy exchange by October 2013 to introduce electricity futures and derivatives trading. The move aims to transform the existing spot power trading platform into a more transparent market. The Government is launching tenders for up to 2GW of state-owned electricity generation capacity in the coming months, and plans to finish privatization of thermal plants by 2015. Aside from domestic conglomerates, foreign investors are likely to queue up to gain a foothold in the growing energy market.
United States
The Department of Energy (DOE) cleared the way for increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe and Asia by giving the green light to the Freeport LNG project in Texas, a US$10b facility. US energy self sufficiency remains a key talking point, both domestically and throughout the world. Amid rising US GDP and interest rates, Morgan Stanley lowered its view of the US regulated utility sector from attractive to in-line. We believe that valuations will decrease, potentially lowering at least one hurdle to large utility mergers. With a new paradigm comes an adjustment to valuations. The current P/E multiples are likely to be unsustainable in the long run as highlighted by the recent pullback. A revision to mean may not be the case though. We expect valuations to settle somewhere between the 10-year historical average of 15.4x (trailing P/E) and the early May peak of 20.6x.
Brazil
Rapid emergence of wind power continues. A total of 655 wind projects (combined installed generation capacity of 16,040 MW) have registered to participate in the August 2013 power supply auction. Installed capacity of 9GW will be operational by 2017, with a total investment of approximately US$10b. Wind power operators snapped up 55% of the contracts to sell power auctioned off in 2011 and 2012, undercutting the conventional producers on price. However, this is likely to change in the upcoming auctions as the Government looks to boost fossil fuel production to enhance grid reliability. The Government has announced a change in rules for these auctions to prevent wind farms from competing head-to-head with other sources of power; separate auctions will be held for conventional and renewable sources.
Africa
Continued infrastructure build out presents significant opportunities for foreign investors. Power Africa, a multi-billion dollar power initiative, has been unveiled by US President Barack Obama to help tackle the continents power deficit. The US Government has committed an initial investment of US$7b over the next five years, while private investment in the region is expected to exceed US$9b.5 After KEPCOs $407m acquisition of a 70% stake in the Egbin power plant in Nigeria, we expect a heightened M&A activity in the country led by Asian Investors, in the upcoming power plant privatizations.
5 Obama unveils $7bn Africa power initiative, Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1e423b34-e183-11e2-b79600144feabdc0.html#axzz2Yd9sHpmz, 30 June 2013.
United Kingdom
UK energy regulator Ofgem proposed increasing competition in the UK electricity market so as to provide a more competitive environment for independent suppliers to buy and sell power. According to the proposal, utilities will be required to post prices at which they buy and sell wholesale electricity up to two years in advance. The UK continues to be the center of M&A activity in Western Europe, attracting a number of foreign buyers. Canada-based Aquila Group acquired a minority stake in Thames Water. US-based private equity firm KKR acquired South Staffordshire Plc. As debate on the role of shale gas in the UK energy mix gained momentum, Centrica acquired strategic gas production assets in domestic and global markets.
Germany
In line with its strategy to restructure its regional utility business in Germany, EON sold a 62.8% stake in EON Westfalen Weser AG for US$472m to a consortium of municipal utilities. The deal reflects a growing trend of re-municipalization in the country. We expect municipalities to be a key contender for upcoming asset sales such as EnbWs shareholding in Stadtwerke Dusseldorf. The rapid expansion of renewable generation and a gradual shutdown of remaining nuclear power plants pushed the Government to pass the US$13b investment plan for high voltage transmission infrastructure, including 36 new high voltage power lines. The investment is crucial to integrate rising renewable energy supplies in the country.
Japan
The country has seen a significant spike in renewable energy investments, particularly solar, led by its feed-in tariff program. Goldman Sachs announced a US$2.9b investment in Japanese renewable energy projects over the next five years. Domestic investors, such as Softbank Corp., Orix Corp and Mizuho Financial Group Inc., are also betting big on solar energy. Japans solar installations grew 270% (in GW) from Q1 2012 to Q1 2013. Utilities continue to invest in US shale gas projects. In April 2013, Tokyo Gas acquired a 25% stake in the Barnett Basin shale gas development project. Sumitomo signed a 2.3mmtpa off-take agreement with the Cove Point LNG export project.
India
Regulatory reform continued to boost investor confidence in the Indian power sector in Q2 2013. In June, the Government allowed power companies to pass on the costs of imported coal to customers, a move that could help bring up to 78 GW of idle generation capacity online. The Government also revised the pricing mechanism for domestically produced natural gas. Natural gas wellhead prices are expected to double from March 2014, incentivizing additional domestic exploration and production.
China
The state-controlled grid operator proposed investing close to US$100b in an ultra-high voltage network, enabling integration of resources including wind, hydroelectricity and nuclear power. With renewable and hydro energy expected to constitute a large proportion of Chinas energy mix by 2020, smart grids and high voltage direct current (HVDC) network projects should attract significant investment in the future.
Australia
To alleviate an expected 20% increase in retail power prices in Queensland starting in July 2014, the Queensland State Government has announced plans to merge Ergon Energy and Energex, the two Government-owned power retailers. Energex operates primarily in southeast Queensland; Ergon operates largely in regional Queensland. The Government anticipates savings exceeding US$580m over seven years. The major drivers for the increased retail power prices have been the significant increase in network costs (reportedly doubling over the last five years) and the increased costs as a result of climate change policies.
Section 3
increasingly difficult to find. Although nominal and real bond yields have risen slightly, bond yields remain at exceptionally low levels, with 10-year nominal UK government bond yields of 2.26% and real government bond yields of 1.0%, reflecting inflation of 3.2%.6
South Staffs 38% BristolWater Southern Water Cambridge Water 30% 32% 31% 31%Kelda Sutton and East Wessex Water 29% South East Water Surrey 27% Anglian Water 25% 24% Mid Kent 20% 23% 26% Southern Water Bristol Water Cambridge Water 16% 14% Brockhampton South Staffs 10% Welsh Water -2% Dwr Cymru -7% -16% Northumbrian Water Oct 95 Jul 98 Southern Water Northumbrian Water -2% -1% 0% -4% -5% Wessex Southern Water Mid Kent -9% Apr 01 Jan 04 EV/RCV premium Oct 06 Linear (EV/RCV premium)
Sutton and East Surrey Veolia UK 33% Northumbrian Water 30% 25% 23% Bristol Water
Jul 09
Apr 12
6 Water scarcity, Deutsche Bank Markets Research, 3 June 2013, via Thomson One, 2009 Thomson Reuters. 7 Ibid.
Section 4
The quarter witnessed a 66% decline in financial buyer deal activity from Q1 2013. While volume remained flat, the absence of large European divestments that financial buyers are increasingly focused on dragged value down. Renewables, particularly hydro and wind, stayed at the top of the agenda for financial investors who are looking to build a diversified portfolio with stable cash flows; these deals contributed 66% to total deal value in Q2. Japan-based conglomerate Mitsui & Co., Ltd. recorded the largest financial buyer deal, acquiring a 20% stake in the Brazil-based hydro power company Energia Sustentavel do Brail SA from GDF Suez for US$565m. With natural gas increasingly becoming an important constituent of the global energy mix, investors pursued several gas T&D assets, contributing 23% to deal value. Rising demand from Asia-Pacific and Europe make these assets a good addition to the portfolio. While North American and European financial investors are likely to remain dominant in global P&U M&A, we expect new hubs of financial investment to emerge in the coming months, led by Japan and the Middle East. In July 2013, a consortium of Japanese investors, including Japans Pension Fund Association and Mitsubishi Corp, joined Canadian fund Omers to buy a stake in the US$2b Midland Cogeneration Venture, one of the largest gas-fired cogeneration
facilities in the US. With the market for Japanese government bonds shrinking because of a change in policy at the countrys central bank, and restrictions on ownership of power assets in Japan, foreign acquisitions are likely in the coming months. Similarly, cash-rich Middle East investors have started to flex their muscle. Kuwait Investment Authority has announced an investment of US$5b in UK infrastructure assets. Figure 3. Financial vs. corporate buyer deal activity
60
40
26 4 7 15 22 21 4 24 15 20 4 5
20
36
31
18 0
Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Corporate deal value (US$ b) Financial deal value (US$b) Financial deal volume
Segment analysis
Integrated segment dominates global deal activity on the back of mega deals in the US and China; renewables continue to lead in terms of volume. Generation Deal value US$2.4b, down from US$4.9b in Q1 Deal value and volume declined 53.3% and 23.1% quarter-onquarter, respectively. The US recorded the highest concentration of deals. Despite the NV Energy/MidAmerican deal being classified in the integrated segment, the transaction included 21 power plants with a total capacity of more than 9,000 MW. T&D Deal value US$6.6b, down from US$10.5b in Q1 Deal value slid 37% quarter-on-quarter to settle at US$6.6b. Europe witnessed the biggest fall (59%), but the region still contributed nearly 64% of T&D deal value driven by divestments such as EDFs sale of a 49% stake in Slovakia-based Stredoslovenska energetika. Asia-Pacific witnessed the biggest rise, with five deals in the quarter worth US$1.2b, led by a Chinese state-owned grid operators acquisition of a 20% stake in SP Ausnet and a 60% stake in SPIAA. Renewables Deal value US$3.6b, down from US$5.7b in Q1 Deal value was down 38% quarter-on-quarter, largely due to the decrease in Asia-Pacific. Europe continues to dominate in volume, with Germany emerging as the most active bidder (eight deals). Deal value in the Americas shot up 71%, largely driven by hydro power deals in Brazil led by Mitsuis US$565m acquisition of a 20% stake in Energia Sustentavel do Brasil SA. The largest individual
plant deal of the quarter in terms of capacity was Consolidated Edison Inc.s acquisition of Sempra Energys 150MW Mesquite solar plant. Terms werent disclosed. Integrated, water and others Deal value US$20.5b, up from US$4.2b in Q1 While volume remained flat, large value corporate mergers in the US (US$10b acquisition of NV Energy) and China (US$7b merger of China Power and China Gas) pushed value up significantly. The water and wastewater segment in Europe witnessed a surge in cross-border deal activity. Figure 4. Q2 2013 deals snapshot by segment
25,000 20,000 Deal value (US$m) 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 -5,000 Generation T&D Renewables Integrated and others
10
20
30
40
50
*Size of the bubble indicates average deal value Source: EY analysis based on Mergermarket data
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