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M.E., Final Project On Sale Forecasting...
M.E., Final Project On Sale Forecasting...
SUBMITTED BY:
GROUP NO. 2
KAPIL SARIN (08/06)
SAURABH KAPOOR (10/06)
CERTIFICATE
The real life project Demand Forecasting of
Sales for ASIAN PAINTS LTD, submitted by:
Group 2, Section: B, PGPM / 2006, is a record
of work carried out by the group under my
guidance and supervision.
CONTENTS
1. Acknowledgement
2. Objective
3. Introduction of paints
4. What is paint?
5. Paint industry in India
6. Sensitivity Factors
7. Overseas Expansion
8. Major market players
9. Research methodology
10.
Analysis of questions
11.
Demand analysis
12.
Findings & Limitations
13.
Bibliography
14.
Annexure
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
OBJECTIVE
To understand the various economic
indicators affecting demand of Asian
Paints India Ltd.
To forecast the sales figures.
INTRODUCTION
Introduction to Paints
Paint: A historical background
Modern Perceptive
Modern houses are made of concrete and bricks which are porous in
nature and allow water penetrate. Concrete is highly alkaline by
nature and hence protects the reinforcement made of steel form
corrosion. However carbon di oxide from the atmosphere reacts with
the alkali in the cement forming calcium carbonate which gradually
reduce the alkalinity of concrete exposing the reinforcement to the
attack o corrosion. This cannot happen in dry conditions; but in the
presence of water coming trough plaster the reinforcement get
corroded and weaken the structure. Since corroded material occupies
more volume than the steel, they push the plaster out culminating in
cracking and flaking.
The painting of an exterior wall serves both the purpose of preventing
carbon dioxide and water penetration into the inner parts of concrete
protecting the reinforcements and structure.
spent on the preparation of surface is more than that required for the
actual application of the paint. In total analysis this exercise is worth
while because most of the paint failures arise from the poor surface
preparation. This first step before any painting is the thorough
inspection of the building, checking for peeling paint, cracks,
leakages, rusty nail heads and microbial growth. In short the success
or otherwise of any painting job will be decided by the above factors.
What is a Paint?
Paint can be defined as a fluid material which when spread over a
surface in the form of a thin layer, will form a solid adherent and
cohesive opaque film. Paints are used in building industry for various
purposes.
Purposes such as: As a preservative to steel, timber, and metal surface
To provide smooth finishes to surfaces and emanate freshness
in buildings
To provide aesthetic appeal and increase beauty of the building
Nowadays,
color
combinations
are
used
as
tools
of
Pigment
Binder
1) Pigment
A pigment can be defined as a finely divided powder which can be
dispersed in media of various types to produce paints is insoluble
in the medium.
Some of the important properties of pigments are as follows: Color
For decorative effect or aesthetic appeal.
Tinting strength
An ability of a colored pigment to tint a white base to desired
shade (pastel shade) is referred to as tinting strength. Ability of
the white to resist tinting is refers to as reducing strength which
is applicable to whites. In short the weight of colored pigment
required by a given weight of white to produce a given depth of
tint is an indication of the tinting strength. Tinting strength varies
with particle size.
Opacity
This is known as hiding or obliterating power and can be
defined as the ability of a pigment to hide or obliterate a surface
when dispersed in a medium and spread in a uniform film over
the surface. The hiding power depends on the difference in
refractive index of pigments and mediums: wider the difference
better is the opacity.
Fastness to light
The ability to retain its color when exposed to light is referred as
light fastness of the pigments. When assessing light fastness
properties of a pigment, it is essential to ensure that the organic
binder is unaffected.
Resistance to heat
Many paint films encounter heat either during stoving process,
which may be in the region of 120 -50 degree C for periods of
few minutes to an hour as they may be applied to surfaces
which remain at high temperatures for long periods . So it is
essential that the pigments used in such paints should have
resistance to these temperatures.
2) Binder & Resins
To bind or cement the pigment particles into a coherent film and
to
adhere to the substrate. In modern paints, the mechanical and
resistive
properties of the film are controlled very largely by the binder .this
is a
film forming material of the paint and can be aptly referred as the
heat of
the paint. Durability of the paint depends on the quality and the
quantity
of binder used.
The proper selection binder plays in important role in paint
formulation.
Many film properties depend on the binder.
The binder helps: To convert from the liquid coating to a solid dry film (on
application)
To provide gloss to the coating
To make the coating adhere to the surface
To give elasticity to film
To provide resistance to water , chemicals and abrasion
To disperse the pigments and extenders
To hold the pigment in suspension
The choice of binder for the paint depends on the end use of the
paint.
There are a wide variety of binders available to be used in paint
industry.
Alkyd resins
Amino resins
Epoxy resins
Polyamide resins
Vinyl resins
Cellulosic resins
Acrylic resins
3) Thinner or solvent
This is used to render the pigment/ binder mixture sufficiently fluid for
the transfer from one tin/ vessel to another and also or application to
a surface in the form of a uniform film. The shiner should then
evaporate completely to leave a film consisting of pigmented binder
only .choice of solvent influences viscosity, drying and flow and
leveling .when solvent evaporates into the air, it becomes loss. it is
not surprising , therefore that there is much interest in coating that a
re wither solvent free or contain a solvents that reacts chemically o
become part of the film .
An individual solvent or combinations of solvents are used in making
thinners for the paints.
Thinners should be colorless so as not to affect the color of the
paint to which it is added
They should be completely evaporate and form no part of the
dried paint film
They should act only upon the medium and not react with the
pigments to cause precipitation
They should not be powerful enough to disturb or soften up
previous coatings
They should be free from residues which may affect the film
It might be thought that as solvents are not present in the film they
do not add to the quality of the finish, but in fact, the choice and
proportion of solvent components can have a profound effect on
gloss, flow and appearance of the coating and may even affect
flexibility, hardness and chemical resistance of the final dried film.
Thinner is common on use include a wide rage of organic solvents
hydrocarbons, alcohol, ketomes, etc and water (in latex emulsion and
water soluble paints)
4) Additives
Additives constitute that group of products which
is
used
in
Industrial Paints
Industrial segment constitutes automobile and other segments such
as sales to Government, Railways, Powder Coating paints and
Marine paints and with a slated annual growth of 10 to 12 per cent
Decorative Paints
In India, around 80% of the demand for decorative paint is from the
housing sector and is highly price-sensitive and also cyclical.
Monsoon is a slack season while the peak business period is Diwali
festival time, when most people repaint their houses. In the
decorative segment, it is the distribution network that counts while in
the industrial segment the deciding factor are technological
Market Profile
The leaders in the organized paint industry are Asian Paints (India)
Ltd. (APIL), Goodlass Nerolac Paints Ltd. (GNPL), Berger Paints,
Jenson & Nicholson Ltd. (J&N) and ICI (India) Ltd.
Asian Paints is the industry leader with an overall market share of
45% in the organized paint market. It has the largest distribution
network among the players and its aggressive marketing has earned
it strong brand equity. The Berger Group and ICI share the second
slot in the industry with market shares of 10% & 9%, respectively.
GNPL has a market share of 17% in the organized sector.
The market can be further split into decorative paints and industrial
paints. The demand for decorative paints is highly price-sensitive and
also cyclical. Monsoon is a slack season while the peak business
period is Diwali festival time, when most people repaint their houses.
The industrial paints segment, on the other hand, is a high volumelow margin business. In the decorative segment, it is the distribution
network that counts while in the industrial segment the deciding factor
are
technological
superiority
and
tie-up
with
automobile
Sensitivity Factors
Various factors that have influenced the pricing of paints are
summarized below:
The industry is raw-material intensive. Of the 300 odd raw materials,
nearly half of them are imported petroleum products. Thus, any deficit
in global oil reserves affects the bottom-line of the players.
The major raw materials titanium dioxide, phthalic anhydride and
peutarithrithol constitute 50 per cent of the total cost. Besides, this,
there are other raw materials such as castor, linseed and soybean
oils, turpentine. The raw materials cost sums up to a whopping 70 per
cent. Any increase in the prices of these raw materials could
adversely affect paint prices.
Most of the paint majors have to import nearly 30 per cent of their raw
material requirements thus changes in import policies can affect the
industry.
The prices of packing materials such as HDPE, BOPP and tinplate
have reduced considerably. However, the decision of the Central
Government to ban import of tinplate waste could lead to a spurt in
the prices of the tinplate in the near future.
Technology Collaborations
All the paint majors have tie-ups with global paint leaders for
technical know-how. Asian Paints has formed a JV with PPG
Industries Inc to service the automotive OEMs.
Berger has a series of tie-ups for various purposes. It has a technical
tie-up with Herbets Gmbh of Germany in addition to its joint venture
with Becker Industrifag. With the agreement with Herbets coming to
an end in 2001, Berger has now allied with the Japanese major
Nippon Paints to boost its OEM turnover since the Indian roads are
being flooded with Japanese automobiles. It also has an agreement
with Orica Australia Pvt. Ltd. to produce new generation protective
coatings. The company also has tie-ups with Valspar Corp and
Teodur BV for manufacturing heavy duty and powder coatings.
Incidentally, ICI makes paints with the technical support of Herbets,
which has been recently acquired by by E I Du Pont de Nemours of
the US. Interestingly, Du Pont, which is a leader in automotive
coatings in the US, has a technical tie-up with Goodlass Nerolac for
the manufacture of sophisticated coatings for the automotive sector.
Goodlass also has technical collaborations with Ashland Chemcials
Inc, USA, a leader in the petrochemical industry, Nihon Tokushu
Toryo Co and Oshima Kogyo Co Ltd, Japan.
Overseas Expansion
If the global Goliaths are foraying into the Indian paints market
aggressively, the Indian paint companies are also spreading their
wings. Asian Paint exports its paints to over 15 countries. It also has
joint ventures in Fiji, Tonga, Nepal, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands,
Australia, Oman and Mauritius. In October 1999 it acquired 76 per
cent equity stake in Delmege Gorsyth & Co (Paints) Ltd, the second
largest paint company in Sri Lanka with a 12 per cent market share in
Sri Lankas Paint Industry. Within a short span of just five years, the
company has emerged as the number one player in these markets.
Decorative Paints:
Decorative paints form 75% of the Paint Industry in India.
Industrial Paints:
Industrial paints form 25% of the Paint Industry in India.
Organized sector :Organized sector forms 70 % of the market of Indian paint industry.
Some of the major players are :
Asian Paints
Berger Paints
Goodlass Nerolac
ICI India
Unorganized sector:Unorganized sector forms 30% of the paint industry market share by
nearly 2000 small scale units. But with time the share of the
unorganized sector in the paint market has been shrinking. This is
primarily due to a shift in consumer preference for branded goods.
Reduction in excise differentials from 40% to 16% between SSI and
the organized sector between 1991 & 1999 has also helped the shift.
This will result in increased dominance by the major paint companies.
Paints can be classified on the basis of the base used:1. Cement Paints:- Paints using hydraulic cement as base.
2. Distempers:- Paints using whiting as base and water as
vehicle.
3. Emulsions:- Paints using plastics as base.
4. Enamel Paints:- Paints using metal oxides as base and
varnish as carrier.
DM
Office
Plants
Regional
Office
RDC
Depot
Fig(a)
Continuous line shows flow of instruction/authority
Research Methodology
Type of study: Qualitative
The data collected through the research is analyzed qualitatively and
then the final conclusion is drawn on basis of study.
Research design: Descriptive
Research approach: Survey Method
Data collection: This study is based on both primary and secondary
data.
For primary data, questionnaires were used & dealers of Asian Paints
were visited.
Sample Size: 30
Sampling technique: Convenient & Judgmental sampling.
Analysis
Conclusion: Brand name & the demand for the product (Royale
Imulsion) are the 2 major factors that influence the dealers to keep
Royale at their outlet.
Conclusion: By and large, the average lifting weight was more than
5 litres by a customer, as a 10x10 foot room requires 4L of paint.
Trend Analysis
Findings:
The Sales is on the growth path, as there is no
decline in last five years.
Advertisements affect the buying behavior of
consumers.
Contractors play a key role is purchasing Royale.
The customers are mainly from Upper segment.
Brand name plays an important role in consumer
minds.
Limitations:
The company was not ready to provide all the data
Bibliography
1. http://www.asianpaints.com/
2. http://www.apaints.com/
3. http://www.domainb.com/
4. http://www.indiainfoline.com/
5. http://www.domain-b.com/
Annexure:
AMRIT TRADERS
F-49,Main Road
Jagatpuri
G94777
G94786
G94702
G94708
G98503
G94751
G94731
G98556
G94704
G94703
G94711
G94712
G94783
C07503
G94705
G94713
G94781
G94767
G94728
873208
874119
878449
878364
878388
875839
874072
876672
878715
878869
875648
875105
241188
241093
878937
875853
874089
879022
874157
873208
874119
878449
878364
878388
875839
874072
876672
878715
878869
875648
875105
241188
241093
878937
875853
874089
879022
874157
157.93 1505
148.90 1505
130.97 1508
125.28 1508
117.57 1508
114.17 1506
113.48 1505
108.06 1507
102.35 1508
102.10 1508
100.01 1506
96.05 1506
95.91 1505
95.55 1507
95.08 1508
93.00 1506
91.60 1505
89.31 1508
87.51 1505
G94709
G94733
G94720
C00577
G94782
G98355
G94734
D00196
G98505
G94795
878296
874171
875150
246483
873703
876238
873260
877057
878432
877026
878296
874171
875150
246483
873703
876238
873260
877057
878432
877026
81.48 1508
80.47 1505
77.06 1506
75.12 1507
75.00 1505
70.60 1506
68.74 1505
66.00 1507
64.63 1508
62.28 1507
C00640
G98551
G94779
C00540
G94717
G98365
G94721
G94791
C00390
D00255
C00275
247398
877446
241175
875624
875587
876115
876863
877194
874324
873246
249788
247398
877446
241175
875624
875587
876115
876863
877194
874324
873246
249788
51.31 1507
50.20 1507
49.94 1505
49.54 1506
48.31 1506
48.05 1506
46.94 1507
45.80 1507
43.53 1505
43.06 1505
42.75 1508
T-1
5256,Shardanand Marg
WP-483/3
13,Harlal Mkt
Bhai Sahab Bhawan
C-111, Fateh Nagar,
C-567
A-5/23,Lal Quarter Market
134-135
62-63, Main Bzr
35/3103,
B-13
105,Samman Bazar
1449/1-A, Main loni road
10, Shiva Market
4B/5B
Opp. Tanga stand
1985/1, Railway road,
202-A
GP-105,Maurya Enclave
G-11
B-116/1
D-1/135,
198/1
A-46
Shop No. 5, Ravidas Market
Thane Road
I-20,
114,Main Bazar
Pitampura
RZ-240
Village Saidan
254, karkardooma
67A,
WZ-309, Nangal Raya,
B 1&2
Shop No. 2
296, Vijay Path,
E/8,
111-113 Samman Bazar
23/2 MAIN BAZAR
102-103 Shiva Market
Shiv Market
Nahapur village
Clock Tower
Wazir Nagar
Krishna Nagar
Shiva Market
Edward Lines
Saraswati Marg
Ganesh Nagar
Jangpura,
durhapuri, Shahadra
Pritam Pura
Jwala Heri
Qutab Road
Narela
Katra Baryan
New Kondli
Ramesh Market
Dashrath Puri
Gurudwara Road,
Bhajanpura
MAHENDRA PARK,
Laxminagar
Main Market
Vikas Marg
192 M-Block Market
Village Saidan
Plot no. 19,Furniture Bloc
Yamunavihar Road,
Opp. Govt School
Bhogal
YUSUF SARAI.
Pitam Pura
C06197
G94792
C01090
G98557
241103
877200
252291
877545
241103
877200
252291
877545
37.45 1507
30.19 1507
28.79 1507
27.36 1507
C- 8/6
No. 7684,
17/9,Old Rajinder Nagar
S.NO. 6,vashya Panchayati
S.K PAINTS & H/W STORE
Dharamshala
R. R. PAINT & HARDWARE STORE C-35,
GANESH PAINTS & H/W
B-4A
JAIN PAINTS & H/W STORE
X/2572, Raghuhar Pura
Sector - 7,
Clock Tower
Main Road
Madhu Vihar,
Karawal Nagar Road,
Near Gali No.8