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PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION - II
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
e x
x = 0,1,2,.......
x!
(Statement only). Expression for mean and Variance. Simple
problems.
3.1 Definition:- P (X = x ) =
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
3.3 Fitting of a straight line using least square method (result only)
simple problems.
3.1 POISSON DISTRIBUTION
Introduction: Poisson distribution was discovered by the French
Mathematician and Physicist Simeon Denis Poisson (1781-1840) in
the year 1837. Poisson distribution is the discrete distribution.
e x
P (X = x ) = x!
0
x = 0,1,2,.......
otherwise
229
Note:
1.)
Solution:
e x
x = 0,1,2,.......
x!
Given P (X = 3) = P (X = 4)
P (X = x ) =
e 3 e 4
=
3!
4!
1
=
=4
6 24
SD = = 4 = 2
230
2.)
Solution:
np =
1000 p = 1
P =
3.)
1
= 0.001.
1000
S.D.=
S.D.= mean
Solution:
2
100
n=200
2
200=4
100
P(no defective fuse) = P(X=0)
mean =n p=
e 0
= e4
o!
231
e
, x =,01,2,3,.........
x!
PART- B
1.)
e x
x = 0,1,2,.......
x!
P(X=1) = 0.2
1
P(X=2) = 0.15
e 2
= 0.15
2!
e
= 0.2
1!
e = 0.2
e 2 = 0.3
(2) = e
(1)
e
0.3 3
=
0.2 2
=1.5
e 0
= e = e 1.5 = 0.2231
0!
The Probability that a man aged 50 years will die within a years
is 0.01125. W hat is the probability that of 12 such men at least
11 will reach their fifty first birthday?
P (X = 0 ) =
2.)
Solution:
e 0 e 1
+
0!
1!
3.)
[e
= 0.0498
Solution:
e 0
= e = e 3 = 0.0498
0!
=1 {P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3 )}
e 0 e 1 e 2 e 3
= 1
+
+
+
+
1!
2!
3!
o!
9 27
= 1 e 3 1 + 3 + +
2 6
20 1
=
100 5
1 4
q =1 p = 1 =
5 5
p = 20% =
n = 10
2
1 4
(i) Using Binomial Distribution, P( X = 2) = 10C 2
5 5
= 45.
48
510
= 0.3020
1
=2
5
e 2 e2 .22
=
= 0.1353 2 = 0.2706
2!
2
f (x ) =
1
2
1 x
(1)
< x <
< <
>0
Mean =
Variance = 2
Standard deviation =
The graph (shape) of the function given by (1) is called normal
probability curve or simply normal curve and is shown in the following
diagram.
1.)
2.)
3.)
4.)
5.)
6.)
1
2
7.)
8.)
The ordinate at the mean of the distribution divides the total area
under the normal curve into two equal parts.
1
2
1
z2
2
< z <
Remark: (i)
a)
b)
(ii)
Note:
236
1.)
Solution:
(i) P (0 z 1.2)
= 0.5-0.4032
= 0.0968
v. P ( 1.2 z 2.5)
P ( 1.2 < z < 0 ) + P (0 < z < 2.5 )
P (0 < z < 1.2) + P (0 < z < 2.5) (By symmetry)
=0.3849+0.4938
=0.8787
238
vi P ( 1.2 z 0.5 )
=P ( 1.2 < z < 0) P ( 0.5 < z < 0)
=P (0 < z < 1.2) P (0 < z < 0.5 )
=0.3849 - 0.1915 (By symmetry)
=0.1934
239
2.)
Solution:
3.)
Solution:
Given mean = 12
S.D = 2
To find P (9.6 < X < 13.8)
When x =9.6, z =
X 9.6 12 2.4
=
=
= 1.2
2
2
When x =13.8, z =
X 13.8 12 1.8
=
=
= 0.9
2
2
P (9.6 < X < 13.8) = P ( 1.2 < z < 0.9 ) = 0.3849 + 0.3159 = 0.7008
240
PART - B
1.)
Solution:
P (0 X 8)
When X = 0, z =
X 06
=
= 1.2
5
When X = 8, z =
x 86 2
=
= = 0.4
5
5
When X=-4, z =
X 4 6 10
=
=
= 2
5
5
When X=16, z =
16 6 10
=
=2
5
5
241
2.)
2 x 2 + 4 x
< x <
Solution:
1
2
= 2 (x 1) 1
2
= 2(x 1) + 2
2
e 2x
= e 2(x 1)
+ 4x
+2
1 x 1
2 1
e2 . e 2
, < x <
2x 2 + 4 x = 2 x 2 2x = 2 x 2 2 X + 1 1
Consider
Ke
1 x
2 x 2 4 x
1 x 1
2 1
e 2e 2
1
2
1 x
1
2
1 x
1
1
, = 1 and e 2K =
2
2
1
1
K=
. 2
1
2 e
2
W e get, =
2e 2
2
242
3.)
Solutions:
X 12 8 4
=
= =2
2
2
243
4.)
function is given by f (x ) = Ce x
Solution:
+ 3x
, < x <
1
2
consider x 2 + 3 x = x 2 3 x
1 x
, < x <
9 9
= x 2 3x +
4 4
3
9
= x
2
4
e x
=
+ 3x
9
e 4 .e
3 9
x +
e 2 4
X
2
3
9
x
2
4
e .e
Comparing,
Ce x
+ 3x
9 x 3
C e. 4 .e 2
x 3
1
2
1
2
9
C .e. 4 .e 2
1
2
1
2
1 x
1 x
e 2
1
2
=
C=
1 x
2
e
3
1
, =
2
2
1
.e
2.
244
Ce 4 =
9
1
2
5.)
6.)
To find P (z h) = 0.99
P (0 < z < h) = 0.49
(from the tables )
h = 2.33
X
h=
X 64.5
2.33 =
3.3
7.686 = X 64.5
X = 72.189
X = 72.19
Marks in an aptitude test given to 800 students of a schools was
found to be normally distributed. 10% of the students scored
below 40 marks and 10% of the students scored above 90
marks. Find the number of students scored between 40 and 90.
Solution:
245
z1 = 1.28
z1 =
1.28 =
40
40 = 1.28
P (z > z 1) = 0.1
z 2 = 1.28
z2 =
246
1.28 =
Solving,
90
90 = 1.28.
90 = 1.28.
40 = 1.28.
50 = 2.56
Sub = 19.53 in (2)
90 = 1.28 (19.53 )
= 19.53
90 = 24.998
To Find P (40 < X < 90 )
= 65
X 40 65
=
= 1.28
19.53
90 65
= 1.28
When X=90, z =
19.53
When X = 40 ,
z=
= 0.7994
No. of students = (0.7994 )800
= 639.52
= 640 students
7.)
In a test on electric light bulbs , it was found that the life time of
a particular make was distributed normally with an average life of
2000 hours and a standard deviation of 60 hours. W hat
proportion of bulbs can be expected to burn for more than 2100
hours.
247
Solution:
When x = 2100
z=
60
60
= 0.0446
4.46% of the bulbs will burn for more than 2100 hours.
3.3 CURVE FITTING
Introduction:
(1)
y=f( x )
(1)
MiQ i = f (x i ),andMi Pi = y i
Q i Pi = Mi Pi Mi Q i
= y i f (x i ),i = 1,2,3........, n
249
di2 = [y i f (x i )2 ]
E=
i =1
i =1
residual.
If E=0, i.e., each di =0, Then all the n points Pi will lie on
di
i =1
(x i y i ax i2 bx i ) = 0
n
and
i=1
i =1
i.e., a
(y i ax i b) = 0
i =1
i =1
i =1
x i2 + b xi = x i y i
i =1
i =1
(1)
x i + nb = y i
(2)
Since x i , y i are known, equations (1) & (2) give two equations in
a and b. solve for a and b (1) and (2) and obtain the best fit
y = ax + b .
Note
1. Equation (1) and (2) are called normal equation.
2. Dropping suffix i from (1) and (2), the normal equations are
a x + nb =
y and a x 2 + b x =
xy which are got by
3.
x a
y b
,Y =
reduce the linear
h
k
equations y = x + to the form y=Ax+B. Hence, a linear fit is
another linear fit in both systems of co-ordinates.
Transformations
like
X=
1).
10
15
20
25
Y:
15
19
23
26
30
Solution:
x + nb = y
a x 2 + b x = xy
a
To Calculate
x, x 2, y, xy
xy
16
25
80
10
19
100
190
15
23
225
345
20
26
400
520
25
30
625
750
75
114
1375
1885
(1)
1375a+75b=1885
(2)
251
Let X =
x 15
, Y = y 23
5
XY
16
-2
-7
14
10
19
-1
-4
15
23
20
26
25
30
14
10
-1
35
=0.7x-10.5-0.2
y=0.7x+12.3
2.)
Fit a straight line to the data given below. Also estimate the value
of y at x=2.5
x:
y:
18
3.3
4.5
6.3
Solution:
Let the straight line be y = ax+b
The normal equation are
x + nb = y
a x 2 + b x = xy
a
xy
1.8
1.8
3.3
6.6
4.5
13.5
6.3
16
25.2
10
16.9
30
47.1
3.)
12
24
36
48
y: 35
55
65
80
90
x 24
,
12
Y=
y 65
10
Let the line in the new variable be Y=AX+B The normal equation
are A X + nB = Y ;
A X 2 + B X = XY
x y
XY
0 35
-2
-3
12 55
-1
-1
24 65
36 80
1.5
1.5
48 90
2.5
10
13.5
(x 24)
y 65
= 1.35
10
12
(
x 24 )
y 65 = 13.5
12
= 1.125 x 27
y = 1.125 x + 38 is the equation of best fit.
254
4.)
1922
1993
1994
1995
1996
28
38
46
40
56
Use the method of least squares to fit a straight line trend and
estimate the number of students in 1997.
Solution:
XY
1992
28
-2
-9
18
1993
38
-1
-4
1994
46
1995
40
-3
-3
1996
56
10
-11
10
29
A= 2.9
y 46
= 2.9(x 1994 ) 2.2
2
y = 5.8(x 1994 ) + 41.6
255
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
12
15
18
23
Production 7
(in tones)
XY
1984
-3
-8
24
1985
-2
-6
12
1986
12
-1
-3
1987
15
1988
18
1989
23
16
-3
-6
19
58
256
PART - A
1.)
2.)
3.)
4.)
5.)
6.)
7.)
8.)
is
good
9.)
PART - B
1.)
2.)
3.)
2
P(X=1) Find P(X=0)
3
and P(X=3)
10% of the tools produced in a factory one found to be defective.
Find the probability that in a set of 10 tools chosen at random
exactly two will be defective.
At a busy traffic junction, the probability p of an individual car
having an accidents is 0.0001. However during certain part of the
day 1000 car pass through the junction. W hat is the probability
that two or more accidents occurs during that period.
258
4.)
5.)
6.)
7.)
8.)
9.)
given by f(x) = Ce 24
(x
6x + 4
< x <
+ 4x
< x <
14.) Students of a class were given an aptitude test. This marks were
found to be normally distributed with mean 60 and standard
deviation 5. W hat percent of students scored (i) more than60
marks (ii) lines than 56 marks (iii) between 45 and 65 marks.
15.) The life of a lamp produced by a factory is distributed normally
with a mean of 50 days and standard deviation of 15 days. If
5000 lamps are fitted on the same day find the number of lamps
to be replaced after 74 days.
16.) The life of automobile battery is normally distributed with mean
36 months and standard deviation of 5 months what is the
probability that a particular battery last 28 to 44 months.
17.) The mean weight of 500 student is 68 kg and the standard
deviation is 7kg. Assuming that the weight are normally
distributed, find how many students weigh between 54kg and
75kg.
18.) In a normal distribution which is exactly normally 31% of the
items are under 45 and 8% are over 64. Find the mean and the
standard deviation of the distribution.
19.) In a normal distribution 7 percent of the items are below 35 and
11 percent of the items are above 63. Find the mean and
standard deviation of the distribution.
20.) The mean weight of 500 students is 151 lb and the standard
deviation is 151lb. Assuming that the weight are normally
distributed, find (i) How may students weigh between 120 and
155 lb? (ii) How may weigh more than 185 lb.
21.) Fit a straight line to the following data
X
12
16
20
24
12
15
19
22
26
30
22.) Fit a straight line for the following data by the method of least
squares
X
10
14
19
26
31
260
Y 9
10
12
11
13
14
16
15
10
12
10
12
14
17
24
25.) Fit a straight line trend by the method of least squares to the
following data. Also estimate the production for the year 1992.
Year
Production
(Rs. In Crores)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
10
12
14
17
24
1965
1966
1967
600
870
930
1985
16
1986
18
1987
19
1988
20
1989
24
ANSWERS
PART - A
1.)
e 3.5 2
2
(2)P=0.002
(3) = 2
(4)
mean=3
(5)SD=1
(9)wrong statement
(16)
(17)
0.4406
18.) 0.9750
19.)
y = a x + nb : xy = a x 2 = a x 2 + b x
20.)
y = na + b x : xy = a x + b x
261
0.4013
PART - B
e 13 (1.3 )
6
1
2e
1.)
= 1.3, e 1.3 ,
(4)
(i) 0.1246
(ii) 0.8754
5.)
(i) e 1.5
6.)
(i) 8e8
(ii) e 8
7.)
=3
8.)
(i) 0.6005
(ii) 0.0902
9.)
0.1429
(10)
11.) = 3, = 12, C = e
12.) C =
(2)
5
24 .
(3)
0.0047
0.1494
1
24
2 2
1
e , = 1, 2 =
13.) 0.0749
14.) (i) 50%
(ii) 21.19%
15.) 0.0548
(16)
18.) = 50 ,
19.) = 50.3 ,
(iii) 84%
0.8904
(17)
409 students
= 10
= 10.36
(ii) 6
(22)
Y=5.4x+9.2
262
(23)19x-20y+145=0
POINTS TO REMEMBER
1.)
p(xi) = 1
i
2.)
3.)
Mean = E(X) =
x i P (x i )
i=0
( )
4.)
E X 2 = x i P (x i )
5.)
6.)
7.)
i=0
Binomial distribution : P (x = x ) = nc xP x qn x
n: no of trails
p= Prob of success
Q: Prob of failure
Mean of binomial distribution = np
Variance
= npq
S.D
8.)
9.)
= npq
e x
, x,0,1,2,3,.....
x
Mean = variance = of a poisson distribution
Poisson distribution P (X = xi) =
1
2
1 x 2
, < x <
12.) To fit the straight line y = ax+b, the normal equations are
y = a x + nb
11.) z =
xy = a x 2 + b x
263
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.0
.0000
.0040
.0080
.0120
.0160
.0199
.0239
.0279
.0319
.0359
0.1
.0398
.0438
.0478
.0517
.0557
.0596
.0636
.0675
.0714
.0753
0.2
.0793
.0832
.0871
.0910
.0948
.0987
.1026
.1064
.1103
.1141
0.3
.1179
.1217
.1255
.1293
.1331
.1368
.1406
.1443
.1480
.1517
0.4
.1554
.1591
.1628
.1664
.1700
.1736
.1772
.1808
.1844
.1879
0.5
.1915
.1950
.1985
.2019
.2054
.2088
.2123
.2157
.2190
.2224
0.6
.2257
.2291
.2324
.2357
.2389
.2422
.2454
.2486
.2517
.2549
0.7
.2580
.2611
.2642
.2673
.2704
.2734
.2764
.2794
.2823
.2852
0.8
.2881
.2910
.2939
.2967
.2995
.3023
.3051
.3078
.3106
.3133
0.9
.3159
.3186
.3212
.3238
.3264
.3289
.3315
.3340
.3365
.3389
1.0
.3413
.3438
.3461
.3485
.3508
.3531
.3554
.3577
.3599
.3621
1.1
.3643
.3665
.3686
.3708
.3729
.3749
.3770
.3790
.3810
.3830
1.2
.3849
.3869
.3888
.3907
.3925
.3944
.3962
.3980
.3997
.4015
1.3
.4032
.4049
.4066
.4082
.4099
.4115
.4131
.4147
.4162
.4177
1.4
.4192
.4207
.4222
.4236
.4251
.4265
.4279
.4292
.4306
.4319
1.5
.4332
.4345
.4357
.4370
.4382
.4394
.4406
.4418
.4429
.4441
1.6
.4452
.4463
.4474
.4484
.4495
.4505
.4515
.4525
.4535
.4545
1.7
.4554
.4564
.4573
.4582
.4591
.4599
.4608
.4616
.4625
.4633
1.8
.4641
.4649
.4656
.4664
.4671
.4678
.4686
.4693
.4699
.4706
1.9
.4713
.4719
.4726
.4732
.4738
.4744
.4750
.4756
.4761
.4767
2.0
.4772
.4778
.4783
.4788
.4793
.4798
.4803
.4808
.4812
.4817
264
.00
.01
.02
.03
.04
.05
.06
2.1
2.2
.07
.08
.4821
.4826
.4830
.4834
.4838
.4842
.4861
.4864
.4868
.4871
.4875
.4878
.09
.4846
.4850
.4854
.4857
.4881
.4884
.4887
.4890
2.3
.4893
.4896
.4898
.4901
.4904
.4906
.4909
.4911
.4913
.4916
2.4
.4918
.4920
.4922
.4925
.4927
.4929
.4931
.4932
.4934
.4936
2.5
.4938
.4940
.4941
.4943
.4945
.4946
.4948
.4949
.4951
.4952
2.6
.4953
.4955
.4956
.4957
.4959
.4960
.4961
.4962
.4963
.4964
2.7
.4965
.4966
.4967
.4968
.4959
.4970
.4971
.4972
.4973
.4974
2.8
.4974
.4975
.4976
.4977
.4977
.4978
.4979
.4979
.4980
.4981
2.9
.4981
.4982
.4982
.4983
.4984
.4984
.4985
.4985
.4986
.4986
3.0
.4987
.4987
.4987
.4988
.4988
.4989
.4989
.4989
.4990
.4990
2.1
.4990
.4991
.4991
.4991
.4992
.4992
.4992
.4992
.4993
.4993
3.2
.4993
.4993
.4994
.4994
.4994
.4994
.4994
.4995
.4995
.4995
3.3
.4995
.4995
.4995
.4996
.4996
.4996
.4996
.4996
.4996
.4997
3.4
.4997
.4997
.4997
.4997
.4997
.4997
.4997
.4997
.4997
.4998
3.5
.4998
.4998
.4998
.4998
.4998
.4998
.4998
.4998
.4998
.4998
3.6
.4998
.4998
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
3.7
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
3.8
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
.4999
3.9
.5000
.5000
.5000
.5000
.5000
.5000
.5000
.5000
.5000
.5000
265