Production Decline Analysis

Introduction
Production decline analysis is a traditional
means of identifying well production problems
and predicting well performance and life based
on real production data.
It uses empirical decline models that have little
fundamental justifications. These models
include the following:
Exponential decline (constant fractional
decline)
Harmonic decline
Hyperbolic decline

Although the hyperbolic decline model is more

general, the other two models are degenerations of
the hyperbolic decline model. These three models
are related through the following relative decline
rate equation (Arps, 1945):

where b and d are empirical constants to be

determined based on production data. When d = 0,
Eq. (8.1) degenerates to an exponential decline
model, and when d = 1, Eq. (8.1) yields a harmonic
decline model.
When 0 < d < 1, Eq. (8.1) derives a hyperbolic

Exponential Decline
The relative decline rate and production
rate decline equations for the exponential
decline model can be derived from
volumetric reservoir model.
Cumulative production expression is
obtained by integrating the production
rate decline equation.

Relative Decline Rate

Consider an oil well drilled in a volumetric oil
reservoir.
Suppose the wells production rate starts to decline
when a critical (lowest permissible) bottom-hole
pressure is reached. Under the pseudosteadystate flow condition, the production rate at a given
decline time t can be expressed as

The cumulative oil production of the well after the

production decline time t can be expressed as

The cumulative oil production after the production

decline upon decline time t can also be evaluated based
on the total reservoir compressibility:

Taking derivative on both sides of this equation

with respect to time t gives the differential
equation for reservoir pressure:

Because the left-hand side of this equation is q

and Eq. (8.2) gives

Production rate decline

Equation (8.6) can be expressed as

Substituting Eq. (8.13) into Eq. (8.2) gives the well

production rate decline equation:

which is the exponential decline model commonly

used for production decline analysis of solution-gasdrive reservoirs. In practice, the following form of Eq.
(8.15) is used:

Cumulative production
Integration of Eq. (8.16) over time gives an
expression for the cumulative oil production since
decline of

Determination of decline rate

The constant b is called the continuous decline rate.
Its value can be determined from production history
data.
If production rate and time data are available, the b
value can be obtained based on the slope of the
straight line on a semi-log plot. In fact, taking
logarithm of Eq. (8.16) gives

which implies that the data should form a straight

line with a slope of b on the log(q) versus t plot, if
exponential decline is the right model. Picking up
any two points, (t1, q1) and (t2, q2), on the straight

If production rate and cumulative production data

are available, the b value can be obtained based on
the slope of the straight line on an Np versus q plot.
In fact, rearranging Eq. (8.19) yields

Picking up any two points, (Np1, q1) and (Np2, q2), on

Depending on the unit of time t, the b can have

different units such as month1 and year1.
The following relation can be derived:
where ba, bm, and bd are annual, monthly, and
daily decline rates, respectively.

Effective decline rate

Because the exponential function is not easy to
use in hand calculations, traditionally the
effective decline rate has been used.
Since ex 1x for small x-values based on
Taylors expansion, eb 1b holds true for small
values of b.
The b is substituted by b, the effective decline
rate, in field applications. Thus, Eq. (8.16)
becomes

Again, it can be shown that

Depending on the unit of time t, the b can have

different units such as month1 and year1. The
following relation can be derived:

Example Problem 8.1 Given that a well has

declined from 100 stb/day to 96 stb/day
during a 1-month period, use the exponential
decline model to perform the following tasks:
1. Predict the production rate after 11
more months
2. Calculate the amount of oil produced
during the first year
3. Project the yearly production for the
well for the next 5 years

Solution
1. Production
months:

rate

after

11

more

In summary,

Harmonic Decline
When d = 1, Eq. (8.1) yields differential
equation for a harmonic decline model:

which can be integrated as

where q0 is the production rate at t = 0.

Expression for the cumulative production is
obtained by integration:

Hyperbolic Decline
When 0 < d < 1, integration of Eq. (8.1) gives

Expression for the cumulative

obtained by integration:

production is

Model Identification
Production data can be plotted in different
ways to identify a representative decline
model.
If the plot of log(q) versus t shows a straight
line (Fig. 8.1), according to Eq. (8.20), the
decline data follow an exponential decline
model.
If the plot of q versus Np shows a straight line
(Fig. 8.2), according to Eq. (8.24), an
exponential decline model should be adopted.
If the plot of log(q) versus log(t) shows a
straight line (Fig. 8.3), according to Eq. (8.32),
the decline data follow a harmonic decline

If the plot of Np versus log(q) shows a straight

line (Fig. 8.4), according to Eq. (8.34), the
harmonic decline model should be used.
If no straight line is seen in these plots, the
hyperbolic decline model may be verified by
plotting the relative decline rate defined by Eq.
(8.1). Figure 8.5 shows such a plot.
This work can be easily performed
computer program UcomS.exe.

with

Figure 8.1 A semilog plot of q versus t indicating an

exponential decline.

Figure 8.2 A plot of Np versus q indicating an

exponential decline.

Figure 8.3 A plot of log(q) versus log(t)

indicating a

Figure 8.4 A plot of Np versus log(q) indicating

a harmonic

Figure 8.5 A plot of relative decline rate versus

production rate.

Figure 8.6 Procedure for determining a- and

Determination of Model Parameters

Once a decline model is identified, the model
parameters a and b can be determined by fitting
the data to the selected model.
For the exponential decline model, the b value can
be estimated on the basis of the slope of the
straight line in the plot of log(q) versus t (Eq.
[8.23]).
The b value can also be determined based on the
slope of the straight line in the plot of q versus N p
(Eq. [8.27]).
For the harmonic decline model, the b value can be
estimated on the basis of the slope of the straight
line in the plot of log(q) versus log(t) or Eq. (8.32):

The b value can also be estimated based

on the slope of the straight line in the plot
of Np versus log(q) (Eq. [8.34]).
For the hyperbolic decline model,
determination of a and b values is
somewhat tedious. The procedure is
shown in Fig. 8.6.
Computer program UcomS.exe can be
used for both model identification and
model parameter determination, as well
as production rate prediction.

Illustrative Examples
Example Problem 8.2 For the data given in
Table 8.1, identify a suitable decline model,
determine model parameters, and project
production rate until a marginal rate of 25
stb/day is reached.

Solution A plot of log(q) versus t is presented

in Fig. 8.7, which shows a straight line.
According to Eq. (8.20), the exponential
decline model is applicable. This is further
evidenced by the relative decline rate shown
in Fig. 8.8.

Figure 8.7 A plot of log(q) versus t showing an

exponential

Figure 8.8 Relative decline rate plot showing

exponential

Select points on the trend line:

Figure 8.9 Projected production rate by a

exponential
decline model.

Example Problem 8.3 For the data given in

Table 8.2, identify a suitable decline model,
determine model parameters, and project
production rate until the end of the fifth year.

Solution A plot of relative decline rate is

shown in Fig. 8.10, which clearly indicates a
harmonic decline model.
On the trend line, select
q0 = 10,000 stb=day at t = 0
q1 = 5,680 stb=day at t = 2 years:
Therefore, Eq. (8.40) gives

Projected production rate profile is shown in

Fig. 8.11.

Figure 8.10 Relative decline rate plot showing

harmonic

Figure 8.11 Projected production rate by a

Example Problem 8.4 For the data given in

Table 8.3, identify a suitable decline model,
determine model parameters, and project
production rate until the end of the fifth year.

Solution A plot of relative decline rate is shown

in Fig. 8.12, which clearly indicates a hyperbolic
decline model.

Figure 8.12 Relative decline rate plot showing

Figure 8.13 Relative decline rate shot showing

Projected production rate profile is shown in Fig.

8.14.

Figure 8.14 Projected production rate by a