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ChinaThaiCanal

WilltheKraCanaleverbebuilt,orisitjustapipedream?
TheideaofbuildingacanalthroughtheKraIsthmuscameuphundredsof
yearsago,andithasbeenresurrectedmanytimessince.
Chinesemediareportedthisweekthattwoorganisationsthe
ChinaThailandKraInfrastructureInvestmentandDevelopment,andAsia
UnionGrouphadsignedamemorandumofunderstandingtoconstruct
thecanal,buttheChinesegovernmentquicklysaiditwasnotinvolvedin
theproject.
Ifthecanalmaterialises,Singaporewillcertainlybeimpactedasshipswill
beabletobypassSingapore'sportandtheStraitsofMalacca.
Hereismoreabouttheelusivecanal:
1.WhatistheKraCanal?
TheKraCanalwouldcutthroughThailand'sKraIsthmus,thenarrowest
neckofSouthThailand,connectingtheGulfofThailandwiththeAndaman
Sea.Approximately102kmlong,itcouldtakeeightto10yearstobuild.
CurrentestimatesputbuildingcostsataboutUS$28billion(S$37billion).
SkippingSingaporeandPeninsulaMalaysia,
shipscouldcutupto72hours
ofsailingtimeor1,200kmindistance.
Theywillalsobeabletoavoidthe

congestedStraitsofMalacca,whichhasseenincreasedpirateactivityin
recentyears.

2.Aprojectwith400yearsofhistory
TheideawasfirstmootedbySiameseKingNaraiasfarbackas1677.
Everysooftentheidearesurfaces,forexampleinthe1870s,afterthe
SuezCanaldemonstratedthatamanmadecanalwasviable.The1946
AngloThaitreatyforbadetheSiamesegovernmentfrombuildingsucha
canalwithoutprioragreementoftheBritishgovernment.TheBritish
deemedthecanalathreattothedominanceofSingaporethenaBritish
colonyasaregionalshippinghub.
Theideawasrevivedinthe1950sandthe1970s,andthethreadwas
pickedupinthe1980sbytheJapanese.Itmadeanappearanceevery
decadeorso,andoftenwhenanewadministrationcomesintopowerin
Thailand.AsChina'seconomyboomed,theThaishaveturnedtothe
Chinesetolendsupporttheproject.
Proponentsoftheprojectcontinuetopushforit.Lastyear,businessman
PakdeeTanapura,amemberofaKraCanalCommittee,toldTheStraits
TimesthatthecanalcouldbepartofChina'sMaritimeSilkRoute,whichis
aimedatimprovingconnectivityandtradethroughtheSouthChinaSea.

3.ImpactonSingapore
Thewaterwayislikelytoreducethenumberofshipstravellingthrough
Singapore.Themaritimeindustrycontributedabout7percentto
Singapore'sGDPin2014.Butsomeexpertssaytheimpactmaybelimited.
DrLiZhenfufromDalianMaritimeUniversitysaid:"Distanceisimportant
butshipshavetoconsiderservicesandfacilitiesaswell.Thefoundation
andreputationthatSingapore'sporthasbuiltupcannotbereplicated
immediately."
4.ImpactforThailandandChina
Thailand'seconomycoulddowithaboostfromsuchaproject,and
potentialbenefitsincludeportfees,tolls,foreigninvestmentand
infrastructuredevelopmentsaroundtheregion.ForChina,theshorterroute
wouldmeantimeandcostsavingswhenimportingoilfromAfricaandthe
MiddleEast.ItcouldgiveaboosttoChina'sportsinShanghai,HongKong
andShenzhen.

5.Whyitmayneverhappen
Analystssaythatforthecostofbuildingthecanal,thesavingsofaround
72hoursforshipsisnotsignificantenough.ThePanamaCanalcutsabout
12,000kmoffajourneybybypassingSouthAmerica,whiletheSueztook
10,000kmoffatripbetweenEuropeandSouthAsia.Therearealso
environmentalconsequencesandsecurityconsiderationsfortheKra
Canal.ManyintheThaiestablishmentwouldnotbehappywithacanal
thatappearstoseparatethecountry'sfoursouthernmostprovincesfrom
therestofthecountry.TheprovinceshavehistoricallyresistedBangkok's
ruleandaretornbyseparatistinsurgency.Iftheseobstacleswere
overcome,questionssuchaswhattodowiththetonnesofsoilexcavated
andwheretorelocatemillionsofpeoplewholivealongtheproposedsite
stillhavetoanswered.

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