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The Insites: Vishnu Prayag Hydro Power Project (400Mw)
The Insites: Vishnu Prayag Hydro Power Project (400Mw)
Jaiprakash Associates
The InSites
Takeaways from site visits
En-route to Vishnu Prayag: GVK's Alaknanda HEP, NTPC's Tapovan Vishnugad, etc. On our way to Vishnu Prayag
hydro power project, we came across four-five hydro power projects including GVK's Alaknanda HEP (at Srinagar),
NTPC's Tapovan Vishnugad, GMR's Alaknanda HEP and also proposed power projects by NHPC. The two projects where
construction work is going on at a full pace were GVK's Alaknanda and NTPC's Tapovan Vishnugad.
JPVL project portfolio of 13GW: JPVL has power project portfolio of ~13GW, comprising of 7.9GW of thermal power
projects and 5.1GW of hydro power projects. Of this, 400MW Vishnu Prayag hydro power project is already operational,
while 1GW Karcham Wangtoo project is under construction and is expected to be commissioned by May / June 2011.
Thermal power projects in advanced stages include 500MW of Bina power project (total size 1.3GW), and 1.3GW of
Nigrie thermal power project based on two coal blocks (Amelia and Dongri Tal) allotted to Jaiprakash Associates.
Equity funding of JPVL at Rs40-45b+ till FY12: Based on the projects under construction and the pipeline, we
expect equity requirement at Rs55b+, of which Rs10b+ has already been invested till March 2009. The balance funding
requirement stands at Rs40-45b+ till FY12, of which Rs18-20b is required in FY10.
Valuation and view: We expect Jaiprakash Associates to report net profit of Rs11.8b in FY10E (up 38% YoY) and
Rs11.5b in FY11E (down 2% YoY). Based on SOTP methodology, we arrive at price target of Rs227/sh. Stock trades at
PER of 24.6x FY10E and 25.1x FY11E. Maintain Buy.
The project is run-of-river (RoR) project on river Alaknanda in Chamoli district in the
state of Uttarakhand and was commissioned in October 2006. The plant is designed to
generate 1,774 MU in a 90% Dependable Year, and actual generation stood at 1,871MUs
in FY08 and 2,033MUs in 2009.
Before descending to the turbine, the water passes through a settling tank or “forebay”
in which the water is slowed down sufficiently for suspended particles to settle out. The
forebay is usually protected by a rack of metal bars (a trash rack) which filters out
water-borne debris.
Penstock transports the water to the turbine: A pressure pipe, or “penstock,” conveys
the water from the forebay to the turbine, which is enclosed in the powerhouse together
with the generator and control equipment.
Process flow 2: Turbine and generator convert the kinetic and potential energy
in the water to electrical energy. After this, the water is discharged down a “tailrace”
canal back into the river.
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The InSites
The blockage on
the river Alakananda is
created by building a
barrage to divert the water
into intake channel
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The InSites
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The InSites
A shaft is connected
to the turbine (below),
which is in top connected to
the generator
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The InSites
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The InSites
Mouth of Head
Race Tunnel
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The InSites
Vishnuprayag 100 Hydro 400 - Free power: 12% for the entire project life
Uttarakhand - 100% PPA based on CERC norms (16% ROE)
Karcham-Wangtoo 55.36 Hydro 1,000 - Free power: 12% for first 12 years, 18% for remaining 28 years
Himachal Pradesh - 704MW PPA (CERC norms, 16% ROE), 176MW merchant for first 12 yrs
- Post 12 years, 116MW merchant
Nigrie Thermal 100 Thermal 1,320 - Madhya Pradesh has first right of refusal for upto 30% of power
Madhya Pradesh on CERC tariffs
- 7.5% of generation to Madhya Pradesh govt at variable cost
- Fuel linkages in place from Amelia and Dongri Tal coal blocks
Lower Siang 89 Hydro 2,400 - Free power of 12% for first 10 years, 15% for remaining years
Arunachal Pradesh - All clearances received
- Government of Arunachal Pradesh has the first right of refusal for
additional power for the first 90 days.
Hirong 89 Hydro 500 - Free power of 12% for first 10 years, 15.5% for remaining years
Arunachal Pradesh - All clearances received
- Government of Arunachal Pradesh has the first right of refusal for
additional power for the first 90 days.
Kynshi II 74 Hydro 450 - Free Power of 12% to states, PPA signed for 171MW
Meghalaya - Balance 225 MW on merchant basis
Umngot 74 Hydro 270 - Free Power of 12% to states, PPA signed for 103MW
Meghalaya - Balance 135MW on merchant basis
Karchana 100 Thermal 3,300 - Levellised tariff of Rs2.97/unit,
- 4.68m tons of coal linkage received from NCL.
Bara 100 Thermal 1,980 - Environment clearance received, levelised tariff of Rs3.02/unit
- 7.02m tons of coal linkage received from NCL.
Bina power project 100 Thermal 1,250 - 500MW EPC order placed to BHEL, Linkages received for 500MW
- Based on CERC notes
Total 12,870
Source: Company/MOSL
Equity funding of JPVL at Rs40-45b+ till FY12: Based on the projects under
construction and the pipeline, we expect equity requirement at Rs55b+, of which Rs12.5b
has already been invested till March 2009. The balance funding requirement stands at
Rs40-45b+ till FY12, of which ~Rs18-20b is required in FY10.
E&C Business Construction FY11 EV/EBIT 8 77,181 55 At par with Industry Average
Cement Business Cement FY10 EV/ton 85 99,994 71 At par with Industry Average
Coal Mining Mining Book Value 9,000 6
Cash Book Value 14,850 11 Book value FY09
Firm Value 201,024 143
Debt Book Value 123,650 88
Equity Value (A) 77,374 55
Subsidiary Companies
Jaiprakash Hydro Hydro Power Mkt Price (Rs/sh) 93 21,692 15 Based on 25% discount to current price
Jaiprakash Power Hydro Power NPV of project 18,018 13 At 25% discount to NPV of
Ventures Ltd. development project development
Jaypee Karcham Hydro Power Investment 3 28,500 20 Expected ROE = 30%+, as 20%
Hydro Corp Ltd. power on merchant basis
Total (B) 68,210 49
Real Estate / BOT
Jaypee Greens Real Estate NPV of project 15,475 11 At project NAV
development
Yamuna Expressway
BOT Expressway Road NPV of project (15,924) -11 NPV of project development
development development
Real Estate Real Estate NPV of project 128,740 92 At project NAV
development
Total (C) 128,292 91
Treasury Stock (D) 45,398 32 At Target price
Total ( A + B + C + D) 319,274 227
Source: MOSL
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The InSites
Jaiprakash Associates
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The InSites
N O T E S
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The InSites
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