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Σημειώσεις μακρο PDF
Σημειώσεις μακρο PDF
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of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems, Graciela L. Kaminsky Carmen M.
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Times, Princeton Essays in International Finance No 215.
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1.5 ........................................................................................................... 27
............................................... 1
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1.1. ............ 1
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1.2 .................................................... 5
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1.1. .......................................... 7
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1.4. .............................................. 7
1.5. ; ............................... 8
1.6. ......................................................... 8
1.7. ................................................................. 9
1.8. : ........................ 9
1.9. 1990 ...... 10
1.10. 2001 .............................................. 10
1.11. , 1980 1996 ........................................................ 11
1.12. ........................................... 12
1.13. .......................................................................... 13
1.14. 1995 .............................................................. 14
1.15. () 2001 ............................................ 14
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1.19. ..................................................... 19
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1.20. Tell-Our-Mom Test Test ..................... 20
1.4 , ......................................................... 21
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........................................................................................................... 23
1.2. ................................................. 24
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1.5 ........................................................................................................... 27
28
, 2
2
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To achieve the objectives set by the Treaty on European Union, and more specifically Economic and Monetary Union, we need high-quality statistical instruments
which provide the Community institutions, governments and economic and social
operators with a set of harmonized and reliable statistics on which to base their
decisions.
( European System of Accounts ESA 1995
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1990
2000
. ,
2000 .
. , : ,
14
, 2
, . .
,
. . , ,
- . .
: , , . 2009.
, 2010,
. , 2009 , 2010. , ,
2009, 2010.
2.1. ,
.
2.1.
Utopia 2009 ( 2),
2010 ( 3) 2009 ,
2010 ( 4 5).
,
. , : 1 +1
, 0.
2009, , 1%.
: 2009
&
2009
2010
: 2010
1
100
102,5
101,5
103,5
=70
=71,5
=71,5
=71,5
+20
+22
+22
+22
+1
+15
+15
+15
+15
+20
+21
+21
+21
25
27
27
27
, .
, 2010 2,5%.
2010, 102,2, 2009, 100.
2,5%
2009 2010.
1 , 1,5%
( = [ 101,5 100 ] / 100 ), :
2010 2009,
-
15
, 2
. .
, , 2 , 3,5% ( = [ 103,5 100 ] / 100 ), : .
, .
. , ,
, ,
.
.
, , 2005 100% : ,
. , , , , , , .
, , NX = X IM, . , 3% ,
.
2.5. -
...
.
-, 20% ,
... ( 11% , 15%) (11% 10%, ). , ... .
;
2000
[% ]
[% ]
20
20
15
15
10
10
...
...
- . , ..., , -
. ,
, 13.41% -, 1.88%. , ... .
( 1995-1999)
...
18.27
13.41
6.65
17.22
13.83
5.84
16
, 2
3.61
3.93
1.88
2.49
6.70
4.28
4.00
3.22
___________________________________________
: ECB Montlhly Bulletin, 2000, . 53.
-
2.1 .
. , .
, , ,
, , . ,
, :
, , , . , ,
. ,
( 2.4 2.5).
, ,
2.1.
.
. , . .
,
, ,
.
, ,
, .
. ,
, . , ,
, , . ,
, , .
,
,
. t zt. , t yt
xt. yt = ( 1 + zt )xt. t+1
yt+1 = ( 1 + zt+1 )xt+1. ,
z+1 = zt, o .
2.6.
1/3 . 2002-03
The Size of the Shadow Economies of 145 Countries All Over the World: First Results Over the
Period 1999 to 2003, by Friedrich Schneider, IZA DP No. 1431, 2004.
. (-
17
, 2
, , ), .
, 28,2% ,
25,7%. 22%, 21,9%, 21,0%.
..., 8,4%, 9,4% 10,9%.
- 16,3%.
, 30,8% , , 40,1%, , 43,2%,
, 43,4%.
. 1987, 17%.
.. .
, ,
.
25% 2006. . , ,
.
,
3% , Maastricht. Financial Times 29 2006 : Oldest
profession helps boost Greek national output by 25%.
.
. , ,
.
, ,
.
, 2005 2007,
2005,
. 2007
2008 2006.
2.1.
. , . , , , , .
, , , , , .
...
. Bureau of Economic
Analysis, ,
, advance report, 30 . , ,
.
18
, 2
3
. -
.
, , .
. , . ,
. ,
.
. 25 ,
1,5% ( 70 ).
, , , ,
.
. , , , , .
,
. , , - 2006 2,5%,
. , , , 0,6% .4
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Data Bank: A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review, September/October
2000, . 18.
4
Box 4. Seasonal and Calendar Effects of Euro Area GDP, ECB Monthly Bulletin, August
2006, pp. 45 47.
19
, 2
3.1 .5
2.3
2.3 ,
, ,
. , , ,
. , GDP = GNP. ,
, GNP .
, , GDP GNP .
,
GNP GDP. FA Foreign Assets, , FL Foreign Liabilities.
.
, .
. , .
. 2.2
.
,
.
Balance of Payments Manual (5 )
(www.imf.org). .
, 2.2
, . :
/
, .
, ,
, .
, .6
, Manual.
Seasonal Adjustment (
2003).
6
. , , . , , , .
20
, 2
2.2. ,
&
&
&
&
. , ,
.
,
, .
. :
. Microsoft :
. .
.
,
. :
.
.
.
. , :
.
- , ,
.
2.3 13 17. ,
XXI. Reserve Assets Balance of Payments Manual.
,
- :
: ..., , , -
, .
-
21 .
, 2
. .
. .
.
, .
,
-
. ,
.
. ,
,
.
. ,
. .
, , . , ,
.
.
. , ,
. , - .
- .
hot flows
.
,
.
(, , ) , . hot flows.
.
Official flows. . ,
.
,
Official Flows. ,
100 . ,
official.
,
non-official.
, , .
,
.
2.5.
22
, 2
2.5.
. (=++)
. (=++)
)
&
)
&
. (= )
= +
=
-
. -
, - .
NAP Net Asset Position.
& &
&
&
NAP = FA FL
(2.3)
.
, , . , , . ,
,
23
, 2
. ,
.
,
, - , , NAP > 0, .
, NAP < 0, . ,
,
.
.
2.7.
. 2005,
-150 , 75% .
2005 , . 9 75% .
, ,
, 130.094 ,
279.281 ..
2.5, , .
2005
[ .]
[ .]
130.094
279.281
59.319
) :
11.530
) :
24.743
83.212
)
)
)
171.326
1.945
559
56.741
149.187
= 130.094 =
= +
: , 2007.
,
. , 2000 43,9% 83,3% 2006 93,7% 2007.
. ,
. ( NFI
Net Factor Income).
, FR Factor Receipts, ( 3
2.2) .
, , FP Factor Payments, ( 3 2.2) .
24
, 2
,
NFI = FR FP
(2.4)
GNP GDP.
=
+
(2.5)
(Y)
=
= (C)
+ (I)
+ (G)
+ (X)
(IM)
&
&
(NFI)
(CA)
(NX)
2.8.
, , ,
, .
. .
=
+
=
+
+
+
+
=
&
=
25
, 2
.
.
( ).
.
. , ,
/ .
,
.
,
.
, , . , .
.
:
,
.
, , 2.7. . .
2.7.
& ,
CA
CF
. ( CA Current Account.)
:
2.6, o
. ( = ) .
, ,
2.3.
26
, 2
2.3.
= &
NX
NFI
+
=
CA
. , ,
, ,
,
.
, . ,
,
. , , .
Balance of Payments Manual . , . ,
, .
, ,
+
+
=
, .
. ,
CA = NX + NFI
(2.6)
. .
.
.
, (2.1), , (2.2) (2.6),
GNP GDP, (2.5),
DD
CA
(2.7)
27
, 2
>
.
.
<
,
. .
2010
DD = C + I + G_
105 = 80 + 10 + 15
105 = 60 + 30 + 15
, 80
, 30 .
, . . ,
,
.
Utopia.
,
.
, 110 2011, , , . . .
, NV2. .
2011
DD = C + I + G_
108 = 63 + 30 + 15
, ,
,
.
28
, 2
, , 2.13.
. ( CF Capital
Flows.) .
, , .
2.5.
. ,
,
, , . ,
. ,
: , ,
.
.
2.5 2.3 .
:
.
. ( BP Balance of Payments, -
). . , CA, , CF.
= +
BP = CA + CF
(2.8)
( ) . , ( ).
2.2 .
2.2. BP > 0
,
, ,
. ,
,
.
.
29
: () =
()
...
, 2
: 50
: 10
: 60
NX = 50 60 = 10
: 15
NFI = 10 15 = 5
CA = NX + NFI = 15
: 100
= 50 + 10 + 100 = 160
: 80
CF = 100 80 = 20
= 60 + 15 + 80 = 155
BP = CA + CF
= -15 + 20 = 5
( ) ( ) = 160 155 = 5 = BP
, , .
, , .
,
BP , .
14 16,
Mundell Fleming.
,
(pure float), , . ,
, .
.
2.4
.
CA:
,
CA
. ,
, .
, ,
2.9, , . , ,
CA :
.
.
30
, 2
, :
, . .
2.5,
.
. ,
.
,
, ( ). , . ,
,
.
2.3.
Utopia 2010 :
Utopia 2010
. (=++)
10 . (=++)
4
0
4
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
. (=)
0
8=10-2
, 2010
4 NV, 6 NV. , 10 NV.
, Utopia
2 NV. .
, , 8 NV (= 10 NV 2
NV).
: 2010 5 NV.
Utopia 2011
. , .
31
CA < 0
CF > 0
, 2
1: .
Utopia 2011
. (=++)
5=4+1 . (=++)
)
)
4
0
4
6-5=1
2
2
0
. (=) 3=5-2
5, 6 1.
5 , 10 5.
, , 8 3.
2: .
Utopia 2011
. (=++)
10 . (=++)
4
0
4
0
)
. (=)
7
7=2+5
2
0
5
0
3=10-7
, ,
5 . , 8 3.
3: 1 NV,
2 NV 3 NV. 1 NV .
Utopia 2011
. (=++)
)
)
)
9=2+7 . (=++)
6=5+1
2
0
4-2=2
0
5=2+3
2
0
3
0
0
7=6+1
)
)
1
1
. (=)
3=9-6
, 2, 4 2,
1, 6 7. 1,
10 9.
, 3, 0
3, 1, 0 1. ,
32
, 2
3, 2 5, 1, 0 1.
4, 2 6.
5.
, , , ,
.
, .
, . , .
. , , .
, , . ,
, , , .
, , , 3 ,
.
.
, , ,
.
, 13 17.
,
FA , , FA , . , , .
,
CA < 0 FA FA = NAP
, .
,
. .
, . (=
) ,
.
.
,
(2.9)
(2.9)
t , NAPt
t CAt t.
,
33
, 2
2.10. :
, 2004 . . ,
! ; ( , , 9 2008).
.
1980.
[$ ]
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
. 1998 .
. 2006, $30 , 13,8% .
, 10 $3.000 . , $100
1986, $13,8 .
, , 2.7, .
, 2006 $44,3 . ,
.
. ,
. , 1990,
.
, $19,4 2006, , .
.
.
, ,
, .
, .
1990
. , , .
...
.
,
: , ,
34
, 2
, , , .
,
. 13 17.
,
, , 1990. . .
.
,
.
, ,
.
:
,
. .
2.11.
2.11.
.
,
, : , .
, CA > 0, , NAP ,
.
, , CA < 0, , NAP , .
&
CA>0
NAP
CA<0
2.2, . ,
, I, . , .
. .
2.12.
35
, 2
...
1980 ,
.
2006, 20% .
, $2,54 . !
, $788 2006. ... 2006 , ,
.
, , ,
.
... , 1980 2006
(% )
45
$1,81
30
15
0
$2,54
-15
-30
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
(% )
$170
2
0
-2
-4
$788
-6
1980
1985
1990
J
1995
J
2000
2005
...
1980, -
... .... ,
, .... , ,
, .
, , : , , .
, ! ... 1980 : , , .
, 1980 , : . Economist
Trading Places 25 1999, Step aside, Japan: China has taken over as economic
enemy number one. The crime: Americas trade deficit with China is bigger than with any other
country.
, , .
, .
The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries Philip R. Lane Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti (2001),
Journal of International Economics, Vol. 55, 2001, pp. 263-294.
36
, 2
.
, , .
, ,
, , , ,
, . , , .
. .
. ,
, , . .
BP = CA + CF BP < 0 ,
. ,
. ,
CA<0
BP = CA + CF 0 CF C
.
. CF, 2.5. . , , .
, . ,
. 1
2.3,
.
. ,
. , . ,
. , . .
, , , . , ,
: ,
, . , -
37
CA<0
, 2
. ,
CA < 0 NAP
, , , , , ,
.
, , :
.
, .
, , . ,
. , ,
. .
, . 2.4
.
2.4.
, .
, 3.4
3.5,
.
, , ,
.
Utopia, NoValue, t = 1
.
.
FA1 = FL1 = 0 NFI1 = 0 & NAP1 = 0
, , ,
IM1 = 120 NV X1 = 100 NV.
IM1 = 120 & X1 = 100 NX1 = 20
NX1 = -20 & NFI1 = 0 CA1 = 20
, , ,
. , 1% NoValue
1% 1% .
t = 1 .
, z%, :
X = zX1, () IM = zIM1.
38
, 2
t = 1.
,
X1 1 = | CA1| zX1 (zIM1) = | CA1| z100 + z120 = 20 z = 0,0909 [9,09%]
9,09% t = 1
, .
, , i = 0,10 (10%). , .
. , :
NFIt = i*FLt
CAt = Xt IMt + NFIt
FLt+1 = FLt + CAt
CA < 0
FL
IM
NFI
CA
z [%]
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0,00
0,1
100
120
0,00
-20,00
9,09
-20,00
0,1
100
120
-2,00
-22,00
10,00
-42,00
0,1
100
120
-4,20
-24,20
11,00
-66,20
0,1
100
120
-6,62
-26,62
12,10
-92,82
0,1
100
120
-9,28
-29,28
13,31
-122,10
0,1
100
120
-12,21
-32,21
14,64
-154,31
0,1
100
120
-15,43
-35,43
16,11
-189,74
0,1
100
120
-18,97
-38,97
17,72
-228,72
0,1
100
120
-22,87
-42,87
19,49
-271,59
0,1
100
120
-27,16
-47,16
21,44
,
.
:
, FL , , NFI ,
, CA .
, 10 , 21,44%, 9,09% 1 .
.
, , :
. . .
,
. 17.4
.
, , .
, : -
-. -
. ,
, .
, , . -
39
, 2
, 13 .
.
2.5
. . , :
, .
, SP Private Saving,
, YD Disposable Income, .
S P = YD C
(2.10)
o, GNP, , TR
TRansfers, ,
INT INTerest, , TA
TAxes.
, , , ,
2.8.
+ +
YD = GNP + TR + INT TA
(2.11)
, SG Government Saving,
. , . ,
, G, , TR,
, INT. , Sg < 0, , . , , , , , INT, .
,
=
=
40
, 2
=
+
+
S G = Y G TR INT
(2.12)
, SN National Savings, .
=
+
S N = S P + SG
(2.13)
(2.1) (2.5) .
= +
S N = I + CA
(2.14)
S P + S G = I + CA
(2.14)
.
, . .
CA < 0 I > SN
, (2.5) , DD >
GNP.
. 2.13.
2.13.
CA < 0 C + I + G > GNP,
.
-
, , .
CA < 0 I > S
, , ;
41
, 2
, , , , .
1
2
CA = S I
5 = 10 15
5 = 30 35
, 15 , 10. .
, 35 . , , . .
, , .
CA > 0 I < S
.
.
1980. , 1990
. 5.13 , 1999 2005.
,
: , . , , .
CA > 0 I < SN
.
, .
2.5. : CA < 0 CF > 0
, Acadia Utopia, ,
, NoValue ( NV). /
/ ,
.
, , Acadia -5 NV, CAACADIA = -5 NV. H Utopia
CAUTOPIA = +5 NV.
Acadia 5 NVs ,
Utopia .
, , . . ,
.
Utopia Acadia , , Acadia.
, , .
Utopia, 2.5, 5 NV . Acadia,
.
5 NV Acadia Utopia. ,
CAACADIA = -5 NV CFACADIA = +5 NV
42
, 2
CAUTOPIA = +5 NV CFUTOPIA = -5 NV
Utopia Acadia.
,
. , () .
, (14) , , ,
. , SG < 0,
, CA < 0. , SG , , CA :
SP + SG = + CA
, !
.
, , !
SG ( 10). (13), . , , ,
. .
. ,
.
. ,
( [2.9]). ,
, . ,
, , ,
. 2.4.
, , . .
, , ,
-. , .
. 20% , 3 4%.
( ),
. .
2.8 .
43
, 2
2.8.
,
1990
1995
2000
2005
, , .
.
44
, 2
.
,
:
..., , , ,
, ,
,
,
-
, GDP
GNP
S
Sp
Sg
YD
NAP
Foreign Assets
Foreign Liabilities
FA
FL
DD
IM
X
I
G-7
Trade Balance
Net Factor Income
Capital Flows
Balance of Payments
Current Account
Government Consumption
Private Consumption
Durables
Non-Durables
Services
Government Transfers
Unilateral Transfers
Economic Policy
Fiscal
Monetary
Foreign Exchange
Value Added
Interest
Taxes
NX
NFI
CF
BP
CA
G
C
TR
INT
TA
45
, 2
............................................................ 1
2.1 ............................................................................................................................... 1
2.2 ............................................................................................ 3
..........................................................................................................4
2.1. ........................................................................................ 5
2.2. ................................... 5
2.3. ............................... 6
2.1. ......................................................................................... 8
...........................................................................................................9
2.1. .......................................... 10
2.2. ................................................................................ 11
2.3. & ...... 13
2.4. ................. 13
2.4. [% ] 1960 2005, , ..., .... 14
2.1. .............. 15
2.5. - .................................................. 16
2.6. ........................................................... 17
2.1. ................................... 18
2.3 ....................................................................... 20
, . ............................................................. 20
2.2. , .................................... 21
2.5. ...................... 23
2.7. ........................................................ 24
2.6. & ................................. 25
2.8. .......................... 25
................................................................................................................................ 26
2.7. ................................... 26
........................................................... 26
2.3. .................... 27
2.9. ............. 28
2.2. BP > 0 .............. 29
2.4 .................................................. 30
........................................................................................................................... 30
2.3. .... 31
2.10. : .......................... 34
2.11. ................................. 35
2.12. ....................... 35
............................................................................................................... 37
2.4. . 38
2.5 .............................................................. 40
2.13. .................... 41
2.5. : CA < 0 CF > 0 ............... 42
2.8. ................................. 44
2.9. [% ], 1986 2005 .............................. 44
. ............................................................................ 45
46
, 3
3
Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as
deadly as a hit man.
(Ronald Reagan, ..., 1980 1988)
, .
As little as two years ago, most of important people had no doubts about the
equation Free Markets + Sound Money = Prosperity. Unfortunately, life isnt that
simple; and thats what weve found out in the last couple of years.
(Paul Krugman, chapter 9 Challenging Conventional Wisdom in
Pop Internationalism, 4th printing, 1996, page 198, MIT Press)
,
+ = .
, , .
R. Reagan , P. Krugman
.
3.1
. ,
, , ,
.
.
, ,
. . , .
,
. ,
1980, . ,
.
,
, .
,
,
..
, , :
, 3
. , ,
, ,
. , ,
, ,
.
.
,
, .
. Galbraith
. , ,
,
.
, . ,
. , ,
, ,
.
,
. 6
.
, 20 .
, .
. ,
.
, , .
3.2
. 1
(1914 1918), ,
, , .
.
( ) ,
,
, , , Seignorage
, seignorage income. income
,
.
.
, ,
- . Kenneth Rogoff, .
, ,
..
, , :
, 3
, , .1
3.1,
20 , , , .
3.1. , 1969 2005
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-69
-74
-79
-84
-89
-94
-99
-04
, 1960
, 3%,
-. .
1960,
,
... .
1970, 1973 , 1979,
, ( 3.7), 15%
.
. ,
, ,
1990 .
,
, , ..., , ,
, , , . ..., 2 ,
9,7% 1982 5.8%
1979. , 1983
7,9% 3,2% 1979. .. 10,5% 4,0%,
11,9% 7,5%.
.
1
Globalization and Global Disinflation, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas
City, Fourth Quarter 2003, pp. 5-43.
..
, , :
, 3
3.1. The Law of Living Memory
,
, .., , 1970
.
, . ,
, .
, ,
2001 , ..
. 3.2 , 5.13 , 1999
.
2005.
Robert Reich, Harvard, The Law of Living Memory.
- 2%
. 5.5
. , 2000
.
, , . 2 (1939 1945)
1970 , 1930 (
6.8 1930) . , ,
.
..
.
1990,
. , 1980
- , ,
Debt Crisis. 1990,
.
, .
.
, , - , . , ,
.
.
(credit rating agencies), Standard & Poors,
,
, .
3.2, 1960
..., . ,
. , ,
,
. , ,
1980
.
..
, , :
, 3
3.2. [%] , , ...,
,
35
30
25
20
15
10
...
0
-5
-60
-70
-80
-90
-00
,
: . 5 , , , .
3.3,
Economist, , , . , . , 1997,
Economist, 440,
2003. , 80 2001 2002 67% 135, 2003
173 2001.
3.3. Economist
() ( )
600
500
400
513
489
494
481
433
423
417
442
424
392
300
200
173
135
100
0
20
49
66
40
1997
1998
1999
2000
: www.economist.com.
82
80
2001
2002
2003
2004
55
45
2005
2006
3.3
.
,
. ,
..
, , :
.
.
, 3
t +1 =
Pt +1 Pt
Pt
(3.1)
t , t+1
t+1, P .
100 ,
(%). % .
t +1 = % Pt +1 =
Pt +1 Pt
100
Pt
(3.1)
3.1.
P2005 = 200 P2006 = 213.
(3.1), 2006
2006 =
(3.1)
t+1, Pt+1,
.
Pt +1 = (1 + t +1 ) Pt
t > 0,
t < 0,
(3.2)
,
. ,
, Pt+1 > Pt , , t+1 > 0.
, Pt+1 < Pt t+1 < 0. ,
, . , Pt+1 > Pt > Pt-1
0 < t+1 < t.
. , ,
, 5 , . , 2%, = 0,02,
, , = - 0,02, .
3.2. ,
1990, 20% 4%,
1995 2005,
. OECD Economic
Outlook.
..
, , :
, 3
1990
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
, , 1991 1997
1,8%. , , 1980 1990 0,7%, 19%.
, ,
, 1998 2005 4,2%, 3,5%.
1995 2005
4
3
2
1
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
-1
, 1995
2005 , (
5.13 , 1999 2005).
. , , . , , 30% , .
.
..
, , :
, 3
3.2.
t=0 P0 = 1.
, P12 = (1+)12P0. (3.1).
0,20% ( = 0,002),
1,024. 0,3%, 1,037.
1 12
140
129,746
120
100
80
56,694
60
40
23,298
20
1,024
1,037
1,062
1,127
1,796
3,138
0,20%
0,30%
0,50%
1,00%
5,00%
10,00%
8,916
0
20,00%
30,00%
40,00%
50,00%
, , .
10% . 10% ( = 0,1) 3,138, 50% 129,746.
wtR =
1100
w
=
= 11 " "
Pt 100 /" "
t +1 = 10%,
1100
wt
=
= 10 " "
Pt +1 11 0/" "
..
, , :
, 3
wtR+1 =
w
w Pt
1
=
= wtR
Pt +1 Pt Pt +1
1 + t +1
, > 0, , ,
. , , , w(1 + t +1) = 1100(1 + 0,1) = 1210.
2005
2006
100
100
NV/
NV
10
25
1.000
2.500
. , . , .
(3.3)
, ,
. , , .
.
.
=
..
, , :
, 3
- , .
. ,
(nominal GDP),
(real GDP).
3.5
. , , ,
.
3.5.
, .
, / .
( 2
4) ( 5 7), (
), , 2005, 2006 2007.
, QM Q, , PM P,
, , , %PM %P, .
, , : 2005,
2006 2007. ,
5% (=100*[2,1-2,0]/2,0) 2006 9,5% (=100*[2,3-2,1]/2,1) 2007.
2005 .
QM
PM
%PM
P
%P
2005
10
2,0
30
3,0
2006
20
2,1
5,0%
40
3,3
2007
30
2,3
9,5%
50
3,4
10*2,0+30*3,0 = 110
10*2,0+30*3,0 = 110
10,0%
20*2,1+40*3,3 = 174
20*2,0+40*3,0 = 160
3,0%
30*2,3+50*3,4 = 239
30*2,0+50*3,0 = 210
( 100
)
P2005 =
110
* 100 = 100,00
110
P2006 =
174
* 100 = 108,75
160
P2007 =
239
* 100 = 113,81
210
2006 =
P2006 P2005
108,75 100,00
* 100 =
* 100 = 8,75%
P2005
100,00
2007 =
P2007 P2006
113,81 108,75
*100 =
*100 = 4,65%
P2006
108,75
. ,
.. 110 2005 174 2006,
.
, . ,
110 2005 160 2006
, , .
..
, , :
10
, 3
,
.
,
( 3.4 Laspeyres Paasche. ,
2006, 2006 = 8,75%,
, 5% 10% .
2007. ,
100.
,
N
Q j,t Pj,t
=
j =1
N
Q j ,t Pj,t
j =1
(3.4)
0
, , t t0 . j /, Q P .
, Qj,t / j t,
Pj,t .
()
=
&
&
(3.5)
- ,
.
.
,
K
Q j P j ,t
=
j =1
K
Q j P j ,t
j =1
(3.6)
0
Q1, Q2, Q .
3.6
.
3.6.
, 30 20 . , = 2, Q1 = 30 Q2 = 20.
2005, 2006 2007
30*2,0+20*3,0 = 120,00
30*2,1+20*3,3 = 129,00
30*2,3+20*3,4 = 137,00
..
, , :
11
, 3
P2005 =
120,0
*100 = 100,00
120,0
P2006 =
129,00
*100 = 107,50
120,00
P2007 =
137,00
*100 = 114,17
120,00
2006 =
P2006 P2005
107,50 100,00
*100 =
*100 = 7,50%
P2005
100,00
2007 =
P2007 P2006
114,17 107,50
*100 =
* 100 = 6,20%
P2006
107,50
, 100 .
,
.
, . , 100.
,
. .
. ,
. ,
8,75% 2006 4,65%
2007, 7,50% 2006 6,20% 2007.
.
3.1.
, , :
Pt Pt 12
*100
Pt 12
.
1) y-o-y t: t =
2) yr/yr t: t =
Pt Pt 1
* 100, P t
Pt 1
12 t.
t .
Pt Pt 1
* 100
Pt 1
.
3) m/m t: t =
..
, , :
12
, 3
62,0
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-90
-20,1
-93
-96
-99
, , :
Pt Pt 4
* 100
Pt 4
.
1) y-o-y t: t =
2) yr/yr t: t =
P t P t 1
* 100, P t Pt 1
4 t.
t .
P Pt 1
3) q/q t: t = t
*100
Pt 1
.
4) q/q,ar t: AR,t = (1 + t ) 4 1 , t . :
t
y-o-y, yr/yr,
4 (=1 ).
q/q, q/q,ar,
q/q,sa,
q/q,saar.
..
, , :
13
, 3
5) q/q,sa t: SA,t =
PSA,t PSA,t 1
PSA,t 1
*100 , PSA,t
. . (3).
6) q/q,saar t: SAAR ,t = (1 + SA,t ) 4 1 . (4), .
, .
,
,
, , , .
. , ,
.
.
, , ,
:2
.
. ,
. , . ,
:
,
.
,
, . =4%, . , ,
4%, 2%
8%. ,
, ,
.
(Office for National Statistics) ,
www.statistics.gov.uk/pic, , Personal Inflation Calculator,
, . , Bureau of Labor Statistics ... ,
www.bls.gov/cpi, ,
.
2
, Journal of
Economic Perspectives, vol. 17, no. 1, Winter 2003: i. The Consumer Price Index: Conceptual
Issues and Practical Suggestions, by Charles L. Schultze, pp. 3 22, ii. Sources of Bias and Solutions to Bias in the Consumer Price Index, by Jerry Hausman, pp. 23 44, iii. Towards a
Cost-of-Living Index: Progress and Prospects, by Katharine G. Abraham, pp. 45 58.
..
, , :
14
, 3
. .
.
2005 1990
2000. 1995.
, . . , .
. ,
,
. -
. Journal
of Economic Perspectives, 3
,
(www.oecd.org) (www.imf.org).
.
. ,
$50 1994 $111 1999. 1% 1,7% .4
.
- .
20%, .
. , ,
.
,
. ,
.
. , -
, .
3.3. Laspeyres Paasche
,
, : Laspeyres
Paasche, .
, , Laspeyres, , , Paasche.
Laspeyres,
. /
/.
. .
(3.6)
- , Henning Ahnert
Geoff Kenny Quality Adjustment of European Price Statistics and the Role for Hedonics, Occasional Paper Series No. 15, 2004, European Central Bank.
4
Jerry Hausman (2002), Sources of Bias and Solutions to Bias in the CPI, NBER Working Paper
No. 9298 (October).
..
, , :
15
, 3
K
Pt =
Q j Pj , t
j =1
K
Q P
Q j Pj , t 0
j =1
Pj , t
Pj , t 0
Q P
j j,t0
j j,t0
j =1
j =1
K
Pj , t
Q j Pj , t 0
=
K
Pj , t 0
j =1
Q j Pj , t 0
j =1
j =1
Pj , t
Pj , t 0
Qj ,
Q j Pj , t 0
j j = K
.
Q P
j j,t 0
j =1
,
(=2). .
/ j , .
, , . ,
, , .
Paasche
. /
. , .
, Paasche
K
Pt =
Q j , t Pj , t
j =1
K
=
j , t Pj , t 0
j =1
j , t Pj , t 0
j =1
Pj , t
Pj , t 0
Q
j =1
j , t Pj , t 0
K
Pj , t
Q j , t Pj , t 0
=
K
Pj , t 0
j =1
Q j , t Pj , t 0
j =1
j =1
j,t
Pj , t
Pj , t 0
Qj,t ,
Q j , t Pj , t 0
j,t j , t = K
.
j , t Pj , t 0
j =1
, Paasche
-
.
, Fisher, Irving
Fisher 1922.
Laspeyres, , Paasche, .
, . ,
, , ,
.
3.4. ;
*** ***
, 0,5% (Measurement of
the CPI, by Ken Ariga and Kenji Matsui, NBER Working Paper No. 9436, January 2003).
..
, , :
16
, 3
; ,
, , , .
2,5% 1,5%.
, ,
, . , Economist 1%
... $140 (The unmeasurable lightness of being, 23 1996, . 85-86).
$107 (Economic Report of the President, 1998, . 373).
, 2006 23,5 ,
22% , 1%
0,235 , 0,2% .
, 1%
.
.
. , ,
,
,
. ,
, .
3.5.
,
.
Alan Greenspan,
Fed
.
Paul Volcker, Greenspan, Fed
1980, .
( )
. ,
.
.
, HICP, 2%.
, 5.5 .
:
. ,
,
.
, .
, ,
. , .
1980 . ,
2,5% 1984,
, -0,1% 1988,
1,8% 1989. , , -
..
, , :
17
, 3
, 0,5% 1986 1987. .
!
. , ,
300% 1985 1990,
.
. , ,
.
1990,
. ,
. 5.13
, 1999 2005.
, , 2000 .
,
.
.
.
.
, ,
, . ,
, ,
. , , ,
, ....
, ,
. , . , .
. . ,
, .
. , , ,
, . , ,
.
(Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices
HICP)
.5 HICP -, 5
..
, , :
18
, 3
. ,
-, HICP Maastricht.
, ,
.
, ,
. (3.3).
=
(real consumption), , , .
, .
3.6. Chain-weighted
, .
,
. , .
, , /,
, .
, Bureau of Economic Analysis ...
chain-weighted. ,
, .., 2006, 2005 2006 :
2005 2006. 2005 2006, 2005, . 2006. , .
, www.bea.gov Bureau of
Economic Analysis. - , to
Chain-weighted: The New Approach to Measuring GDP, by Charles Steindel, Current Issues in
Economics and Finance, Vol. 1, No. 9, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, December 1995.
3.4
3.4 , .
, .
,
, .
, ,
.
, . ,
, -
..
, , :
19
,
.
, 3
,
.
, , ,
(, ), , ( , , ,)
. , ,
, (
) , Super Market.
, ,
() .
3.4.
TA
Pw
TA
Pw
Pcons
S, Pf
Pout
Pout
Praw
Super Market
. W: , i: , Praw: , Pout: ,
Pw: , Pcons: , S: ,
Pf: & , : .
, .
, Praw , , Pout , , Pw ,
, Pcons .
,
, w,
, i, , Praw ,
. , Pf, , S. ,
, Pout ,
(), .
.
, , ,
,
. ,
, , ,
. .
..
, , :
20
, 3
, ,
, , - ...
, Pcons . 3.7
. , ,
.
3.7.
, ,
50 , 10 , 25 15
. , , = 0,1 (10%).
100 (=50+10+25+15),
Pout = 100*(1+) = 100(1+0,1) = 110.
, , 8%. 54 104.
. , Pout , .
110 104
=
= 0,058 5,8%.
104
, .
Pout = ( )*(1+) = 104*(1+0,1) = 114,4,
(114,4 - 110)/110 = 0,04 4%.
, . , . , , , , .
. . ,
50, , ..,
25 21.
. ,
.
. ,
. . , . .
3.7.
,
, , .
( ) ( ), 1960 2005. International Financial Statistics .
,
, $3 $12 300%, , $12 $36 200%. , . 2000, -,
. , ,
1980, $30 $10.
..
, , :
21
, 3
[$... ]
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1960-
1970-
1980-
1990-
2000-
, .
, 1980
- 16 ,
.
[$... ]
4000
20000
3000
15000
2000
10000
1000
5000
0
1960-
0
1970-
1980-
( )
1990-
2000-
( )
,
.
(price stickiness) .
,
.
, . , .
. t t+1.
d, tCk,t+1. k ,
t
t.
, ,
. ,
. .
t,
..
, , :
22
, 3
= (1 + )*
,
Pk ,t +1 = (1 + d ) E t C k ,t +1
1+d =
Pk ,t +1
Et C k ,t +1
, Pk,t+1 , tCk,t+1. .
tCk . ,
t .
. .
. .
, , Ck,t+1,
, Ck,t+1 EtCk,t+1. , .
1+ =
Pk ,t +1
Ck ,t +1
Pk ,t +1 Et Ck ,t +1
Et Ck ,t +1
= (1 + d )
Et Ck ,t +1 Ck ,t +1
Ck ,t +1
14
24
3
(1+ d )
1+ d
1
424
3
,
,
Ck ,t +1 Et C k ,t +1
.
, Ck,t+1 > EtCk,t+1, EtCk,t+1
/ Ck,t+1 < 1 ,
< d. , . , :
3.5.
t+1
, d
, EtCk,t+1
Pk,t+1=(1+d)EtCk,t+1
, Ck,t+1
(1+) = Pk,t+1/Ck,t+1
, . tPt+1, t w
~ R .
w
..
, , :
23
, 3
~R =
w
w
Et Pt +1
t+1 ,
Pt+1 EtPt+1,
~ R . ,
, w R w
wR =
w
w Et Pt +1 ~ R Et Pt +1
=
=w
Pt +1 Et Pt +1 Pt +1
Pt +1
, ,
. , EtPt+1/Pt+1
~R.
w R < w
, , , . ( )
.
. ,
. , , .
(MENU COSTS). .
.
. ,
supermarkets,
, . ,
, , .
.
,
,
.
, .
.
. , ,
,
.
,
. 3.4 ,
. , . , .
.
..
, , :
24
, 3
.
.
, . , .
, , ,
,
.
. .
, , , Pw ,
Pout .
. ,
, , , .
. ,
. ,
3.7. coordination failure.
, ,
. ,
.
. ,
, , ,
.
. ,
, ,
. ,
, .
.
, ,
.
, ,
,
.
, , ()
.
..
, , :
25
, 3
. 0,99, 9,99, 99,99, 1, 10 100 ,
.
.
3.8.
. , , .
: )
)
.
,
, , ... .
:
1. Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices, by Mark Bils and Peter J. Klenow (Journal
of Political Economy, vol. 112, no. 5, pp. 947 985, 2004), ...
2. Price Chnages in the Euro Area and the United States: Some Facts from Individual Consumer
Price Data, by E. Dhyne, L.J. lvarez, H. Le Bihan, G. Veronese, D. Dias, J. Hoffmann, N.
Jonker, P. Lnnemann, F. Rumler and J. Vilmunen (Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 20,
no. 2, pp, 171-192, Spring 2006, ... (..)
3. Inflation Persistence and Price-Setting Behavior in the Euro Area, by Filippo Altissimo, Michael
Ehrmann and Frank Smets (ECB Occasional Paper Series no. 46, June 2006), ...
. , . ..., 29% , , ,
15%. , 6,7 13
.
,
. , .
.
, ,
.
, , , , ,
, . .
, .
, (surveys) /,
, . , ,
. , ... 522 Macroeconomics (fourth edition), N.
Gregory Mankiw (Worth Publishers, New York 2000).
.
, . , ,
, ,
.
, , . ,
, -
..
, , :
26
, 3
. , ,
. , 3.13
,
.
3.9.
, , ,
,
.
,
(unprocessed foods) (core) . . , , ,
.
, ,
.
, , , ,
. ,
, . , , .
, , , .
3.4, , , .
, ,
, , . , , , .
,
, ,
, , .
, , . , , , ,
, .
.
.
, , .
, , . ,
. , . , . ,
.
.
..
, , :
27
, 3
,
.
3.10.
, , , . , .
, .
, , . ,
,
. : .
, , ,
.
, , ,
,
. ,
, ,
.
, . ,6
G DD = C + I + G .
, , IS/LM
, , . , Mundell Fleming,
. .
. ,
i , C , X = C + I + G + X .
,
.
, ,
, .
, ,
. ,
, .
, ,
13.
: ,
, . . ,
,
.
. ,
. , 6
( ):
() = (C) + () + (G) + () ()
..
, , :
28
, 3
.
, ,
.
3.11.
) ,
)
) ,
.
,
Inflation Report , , : 1) (Money and Asset Prices), 2) (Demand), 3) (Output and Supply), 4) (Costs and Prices), 5) (Prospects for Inflation).
)
) . ,
(retail spending). ,
.
. ,
( ). .
, , , (
7).
. .
, , .
,
(manufacturing) (services). .
(capacity utilization rate) . , 80%,
.
, (output gap), , .
, . ,
. ,
.
,
, .
, , .
- (non-wage labour cost) .
, , (unit labour costs). .
.
, ,
,
(
). , .
3.12.
1990 - . ...
..
, , :
29
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
non-wage
labour cost,
unit labour
cost
....
, 3
,
: , , .
,
, . .
, , , . , , .
, , - ... , NASDAQ, . , 2000
1998 8000 2000.
NASDAQ (Total Returns Index)
9000
2000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1/1/1990
1998
1/1/1995
1/1/2000
2002
1/1/2005
: DATASTREAM.
, 2000 2002,
: .
,
.
, , . .
, 1998 ,
;
, ,
. , ,
,
. , Old Economic Logic in the New Economy (California Management Review, Vol. 41, No. 4, Summer 1999, pp. 64-83) Laura Tyson
, .
, Are Networks Driving the New Economy (Harvard Business Review,
NovemberDecember 1998, pp. 3-7) Peter Bernstein .
1980, , .
, , , ,
:
... 1990.
,
, .
,
.
1995. ,
1957
International Financial Statistics ....
..
, , :
30
, 3
, , , , , NASDAQ.
3.5
, , .
3.6,
.
, , . . , , .
. ,
. ,
, , 12.
, ,
, , .
.
3.6.
TA
Pw
TA
Pw
Pcons
S, Pf
Pout
Pout
Praw
Super Market
. W: , i: , Praw: , Pout: ,
Pw: , Pcons: , S: ,
Pf: & , : .
,
, : , ,
,
..
, , :
31
, 3
. ,
.
.
,
. , , ( ...).
, ... .
, , , . , , , . .
3.13.
sacrifice ratio, 1% .
, . ,
, , , . , .
, S. Fisher, R. Sahay C. Vgh, Modern Hyper- and High Inflations
(Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. XL, pp. 837-880, 2002) .... 2,9 () 0,8 (, ..). , 1% 2,9% 0,8% .
.
;
, , . , ( 5 ). , . , ,
.
3.14. ,
, .
,
.
, ,
. ,
.
, .
.
. .
, , , -. ,
, ,
. , ,
, .
..
, , :
32
, 3
; . . , ,
10%.
.
,
.
,
, .
. ,
.
, , ..., .
. --
. ,
-, , -
.
.
3.6 . ,
, .
,
. ,
.
,
. ,
, Super Market
,
.
.
3.15.
.
. , .
. Utopia
.
:
.
, . , ,
. , .
.
(core CPI).
,
- .
( 3.8 ).
, , HICP ( ) : , HICP (
..
, , :
33
, 3
). . ,
1%. , .
HICP (Headline) (Core)
3,5
HICP
3
y-o-y [%]
2,5
2
1,5
HICP excluding
Energy & Unprocessed Food
1
0,5
0
-97
-99
-01
-03
-05
: Eurostat.
, , .
, 2000 2001 2005 2006. ,
.
, . , , ,
. .
. .
, , Eurostat epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu, HICP.
HIC Food, HIC Alcohol & Tobacco, HIC Clothing, HIC Housing, HIC Household
Equipment, HIC Health, HIC Transport, HIC Communications, HIC Recreation & Culture,
HIC Hotels & Restaurants, HIC Energy, HIC All Items excluding Energy & Food, HIC All
Items excluding Energy, Food, Alcohol & Tobacco,
, , .
.
IV. Measuring and Assessing Underlying Inflation
OECD Economic Outlook 2005, . 125 141.
,
.
.
, , ,
,
. 1,25% 2006, , 1,5%, , 2,5%,
- 2%.
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34
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36
, 3
..................................................................................... 1
3.1 ............................................................................................................................... 1
3.2 ......................................................................... 2
3.3 ...................................................................................... 5
3.4 .......................................................................... 19
3.5 .............................................................................. 31
..................................................................................... 1
3.1 ............................................................................................................................... 1
3.2 ......................................................................... 2
3.1. , 1969 2005 ......................................................................... 3
3.1. The Law of Living Memory........................................ 4
3.2. [%] , , ..., ................................. 5
3.3. Economist .................................................. 5
3.3 ...................................................................................... 5
. ...........................................................................................................................5
3.1. ............................................................ 6
3.2. , ............................ 6
3.2. ......................................................... 8
3.3. ................................... 8
3.4. , ........................... 9
. ............................................................................................................9
3.5. ....................................... 10
3.6. ....................................... 11
3.1. ............................................ 12
. ............................................................................................................ 14
3.3. Laspeyres Paasche ................................................................ 15
3.4. ;.............................................. 16
3.5. ................................................................. 17
3.6. Chain-weighted ........................................................... 19
3.4 .......................................................................... 19
3.4. ....................................................... 20
............................................................................. 21
3.7. ................................... 21
3.7. ................................................................ 21
3.5. ............................................................ 23
3.8. ........................................................... 26
3.9. .............. 27
. ..................................... 27
3.10. .......................................................... 28
3.11. ........................................ 29
3.12. ...................................................... 29
3.5 .............................................................................. 31
3.6. ....................................................... 31
3.13. ......................................... 32
3.14. , .............................. 32
3.15. ............................................................................ 33
3.16. ... ......................................... 35
3.17. , & .......... 36
..
, , :
37
, 4
4
if creditors can be sure that prices will remain stable in the future, they will not
demand an inflation risk premium to compensate them for the risks associated
with holding nominal assets over the longer term. By reducing such risk premia in
the real interest rate, monetary policy credibility contributes to the efficiency with
which the capital markets allocate resources and thus increases the incentives to
invest. This in turn fosters economic welfare.
(The Monetary Policy of the ECB, , 2004)
( ) ,
.
,
. .
, ... , . .
4.1
1980, 14,5%.
2000 7,7%. 100 ( ), 14,5 1980 7,7 2000. , 2000
1980.
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, 26,1% y-o-y 1980 3,9% y-o-y 2000,
. , 2000
1980.
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, 4
3,8% 2000 -11,6% () 1980. , 3,8% 2000,
11,6% 1980.
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, 4
, . , .
, , , , , . , , , , .
. t = 1000. . , t,
iD,t = 0,05 (5%)
, t+1. . . , , .
, Pt = 10 ,
Qt = At / Pt = 1000/[10 ] = 100 . . .
, , , , At, iD,t*At = 0,05*1000 = 50,
At+1 = (1+iD,t)*At = (1+0,05)*1000 = 1050. ,
t+1, t, , .
,
t+1, . , t , 1000 t 1050
t+1. ,
Qt, , Qt+1.
, , t.
, At+1,
Pt+1.
, , Pt+1, Qt+1 = At+1/Pt+1,
Qt . , .
, , . ,
, Ett+1 = 0,07 (7%), , EtPt+1 = (1+Ett+1)*Pt =
(1+0,07)*[10/] = 10,7/ , ,
, tQt+1.
E t Qt +1 =
(1 + i D,t ) At
At +1
=
E t Pt +1 (1 + E t t +1 ) Pt
(1 + 0,05) 1000
1050
=
= 98,13 " ".
(1 + 0,07) 10/" " 10,7/" "
4.1 , t.
4.1. ,
..
, 4
t+1
:
A)
Qt =
1000
At
=
= 100 " "
Pt 10/" "
B) ,
9 At = 1000
9 At+1 = (1+iD,t)*At
= (1+0,05)*1000 = 1050
9 Qt +1 =
At +1
Pt +1
: &
9
At = 1000
Pt = 10/
iD,t = 0,05 (5%)
Qt = At /Pt = 1000/[10/] = 100
At+1 = (1+iD,t)*At = (1+0,05)*1000 = 1050
9 t+1
tt+1 = 0,07 (7%)
EtPt+1 = (1+ tt+1)*Pt = (1+0,07)*[10/]
= 10,7/
EtQt+1 = At+1 /EtPt+1 = 1050/[10,7/]
= 98,13
, Qt,
, EtQt+1.
E t rt +1
(1 + i D ,t ) At
A
At +1
A
t
t
(1 + E t t +1 ) Pt Pt i D ,t E t t +1
E Q Qt E t Pt +1 Pt
=
= t t +1
=
=
At
At
1 + E t t +1
Qt
Pt
Pt
. , iD,t, , .
, .
, . ,
. , tt+1 = 0,02 (=2%), 1+tt+1 = 1 +
0,02 1. ,
= Et rt +1 =
i D ,t Et t +1
i D ,t Et t +1 (4.1)
1 + Et t +1
14
4244
3
Et t +1 ,
1+ Et t +1 1
..
, 4
, Etrt+1 < 0, ,
, , , EtQt+1 < Qt,
. 5% (=it) ,
7%
(=Ett+1). , t .
, Etrt+1 > 0. Ett+1 = 0,03 < 0,05 = it Etrt+1
0,05 0,03 = 0,02 (2%).
2% . ,
t+1/EtPt+1 = 1050/[(1+0,03)*10/] = 101,94 , 2% Qt.
,
. , ,
, . , .
, . ,
. , , i = 0, ,
. , i = 0, rt+1
= t+1. , i 0,
.
, . .
4.2.
/, , . , , , . , ,
.
, . ,
, ,
..., 1970 1999. ,
International Financial Statistics
. 1999,
...
, . , 1999 . ... 2001.
..
, 4
[%] , , , ... 1970 - 1999
25
...
20
15
10
0
-70
-75
-80
-85
-90
-95
, . 3.2,
, , , , .
.
1990 , Bundesbank,
.
1989. ... 1990
, Fed,
, , , ,
.
.
. 1988,
, . , . , 4.7 .
i D ,t t +1
Q Qt
= rt +1 = t +1
= ... =
iD ,t t +1
1 + t +1
Qt
14243
(4.2)
t +1 ,
1+ t +1 1
..
, 4
3.4). , t
t+1 , , , ,
. , t+1 = Ett+1
.
. , t+1 > Ett+1, , t+1 < Ett+1, .
, , rt+1 <
Etrt+1. , t+1
t .
, rt+1 > Etrt+1.
4.1.
4.1, t+1 = 0,09 > 0,07 =
tt+1, Pt+1 = (1+0,09)*10/ = 10,9/ > 10,5/ = tPt+1, Qt+1 =
At+1/Pt+1 = 1050/(10,9/) = 96,33 < 98,13 = EtQt+1. , rt+1 =
(Qt+1 Qt)/Qt = (96,33 100,0)/100,0 = -0,0367 < -0,0187 = trt+1.
, , , .
, .
, ,
, 0,018 (1,8%), .
,
, .
4.1, t+1 = 0,04 < 0,07 = tt+1, Pt+1 = (1+0,04)*
10/ = 10,4/ < 10,5/ = tPt+1, Qt+1 = At+1/Pt+1 = 1050/(10,4/) =
100,96 > 98,13 = EtQt+1. , rt+1 = (Qt+1 Qt)/Qt = (100,96
100,0)/100,0 = 0,0096 > -0,0187 = trt+1.
, .
4.2 ,
t iL,t = 0,10 (10%).
t t+1,
.
..
, 4
4.2. ,
t+1
:
At = 1000
9
1000
A
= 100 " "
Qt = t =
Pt 10/" "
At+1 = (1+iL,t)*At
= (1+0,10)*1000 = 1100
9
A
Qt +1 = t +1
Pt +1
: &
9
At = 1000
Pt = 10/
iL,t = 0,10 (10%)
Qt = At /Pt = 1000/[10/] = 100
At+1 = (1+iL,t)*At = (1+0,10)*1000 = 1100
9 t+1
tt+1 = 0,07 (7%)
EtPt+1 = (1+ tt+1)*Pt = (1+0,07)*[10/]
= 10,7/
EtQt+1 = At+1 /EtPt+1 = 1100/[10,7/]
= 102,80
,
, Etrt+1 = (EtQt+1 Qt)/Qt.
(4.1) iD,t
iL,t.
, (4.2)
iL,t iD,t.
, , t+1 > Ett+1,
: . , t+1 < Ett+1 .
4.3.
4.1 4.2, iL,t iD,t. . iD,t iL,t .
,
/ . 4.3 .
, (interest rate spread), .
, . , t+1 tt+1, .
. 4.1, , .
..
, 4
4.1. -
4.4.
, ,
, .
, .
. Utopia r d = 5%. t
,t+1 = 7%.
, 12% (= r d + ,t+1
= 5% + 7%). (4.1) tt+1 = ,t+1.
, , , .
, , Ett+1 = 15% (0,15).
, , , ,
r d = 5%. ,
iD,t = r d + Ett+1 = 5% + 15% = 20%.
, t+1 = ,t+1 = 7%, . 5% rt+1 iD,t - t+1 = 20%
- 7% = 13%.
, , , .
, , iD,t = 20%, iL,t = 23% ( 3%). ,
iL,t - t+1 23% - 7% = 16%, iL,t t t+1
= 23% - 15% = 8%.
, ,
:
.
, : , . ,
.
.
,
. /. ,
, /
.
-
.
4.5.
,
, .
, 4 Inflation Stabilization and Nominal Anchors Guillermo
A. Calvo Carlos A. Vgh, Approaches to Exchange Rate Policy IMF
Institute 1994.
,
, . , ,
, t+1 < Ett+1, .
..
, 4
.
t=0 = 40%.
1/5 . ,t+1 = 0,8*t.
, Ett+1 = ,t+1 = 0,8*t. , ,
, Ett+1 = t. ,
.
. . . .
. , t+1 = ,t+1 = 0,8*t.
, , Etrt+1 = r = 5% ,
r = 5%, .
, Etrt+1
= r, it r + Ett+1 = r + t,
rt+1 it t+1 = r + t - t+1. . .
t=0
40,00
32,00
25,60
20,48
16,38
13,11
10,49
8,39
6,71
5,37
4,29
3,44
2,75
2,20
1,76
1,41
1,13
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
= i t t+1
13,00
11,40
10,12
9,10
8,28
7,62
7,10
6,68
6,34
6,07
5,86
5,69
5,55
5,44
5,35
, ,
.
40
35
Ett+1 = t
30
25
20
t+1 =
,t+1 = 0,8*t
15
10
Etrt+1 = r = 5%
..
0
0
10
6
10
11
12
13
14
15
, 4
( ) (
), ( ) (
).
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4.3
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. ,
.
. , , tt+1 = 5%
(0,05).
A iA,t = 2%, EtrA,t+1 -3% (= 2% - 5%).
A 3% .
,
. , 5% .
..
11
, 4
, , , , B, , , 3%, 4%, 5% 6% . E,
iE,t = 6% 1% (= 6% 5%). . , , .
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(financial repression). -
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5
,
Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system
was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments
can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their
citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily;
and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of
this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security but [also] at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.
Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become "profiteers," who are the object of the
hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of
the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and
creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.
Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning
the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all
the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.
(John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919), www.pbs.org)
( ) . , , ,
. , , , .
.
, , ,
. ,
, ,
.
.
. , .
.
. , Keynes,
, Carl Marx,
, . , ,
..
, 5
,
Keynes,
.
5.1
, , , : , , ;
:
2% 3% ;
,
,
. , ... - 2%. Fed ,
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3.13 , ,
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...
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. Paul Krugman,
Princeton, one of the dirty little secrets of eco-
..
, 5
nomic analysis.1
, . ,
4% 5% . 10% .
,
,
. , Harvard Kenneth Rogoff, ... 2001 2003,
accutely damaging
40% .2 , 10%. , ,
2% 3% 4%.
, , :
, , ,
, - .
3.1 .
5.1. :
Inflation figures to signal direction for interest rates
Financial Times, 13 2006
Drop in US inflation raises hopes of rate cut next year Financial Times, 17 2006
Concentrated focus on inflation and interest rates hurts sentiment
Financial Times, 3 2007
Contrasting positions on UK and US inflation spark sharp moves
Contrasting news on inflation in the UK and US triggered sharp moves in financial markets yesterday, spurring sterling to finally breach the $2 mark against the US currency
Financial Times, 18 2007
,
Dollar resumes slide on benign inflation data
Financial Times, 14 2006
Dollar rallies as Greenspan warns on inflation
, ,
World stock prices fall as fears grow of rising inflation Financial Times, 16 1999
,
Spectre of inflation in US puts brakes on Treasury bond rally Financial Times, 3 2006
,
Hard times for Indias mortgage holders.
1
The Age of Diminished Expectations U.S. Economic Policy in the 1990s, by Paul Krugman,
MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1992, . 52.
2
Globalization and Global Disinflation, by Kenneth Rogoff, Economic Review Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Fourth Quarter 2003, . 45 78.
..
, 5
The central banks determination to beat inflation is hitting homeowners as well as consumer demand
Financial Times, 25 2007
,
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;
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1.
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)
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ii.
iii.
2.
3.
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4.
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) (foreign exchange risk premium)
) (default premium)
..
, 5
5.
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6. ,
7. , .
:
.
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.
1.
, , . , .
) . , 4.2, -
.
, t+1 > tt+1,
, rt+1 < trt+1, .
, t+1 < tt+1. ,
.
. ,
, r, , i. .
5.1.
t = 1000 r = 0,03 (3%), . , ,
, t, Pt = 10/,
.
Qt = t / Pt = 1000/(10/) =
100 .
Qt+1 = (1+r)Qt = (1+0,03)*
100 = 103 .
Qt+1 = At+1 / Pt+1 Pt+1 = (1+t+1)Pt, At+1
t+1 (= ),
Qt +1 =
At +1
A
= (1 + r )Qt = (1 + r ) t
Pt +1
Pt
At +1 = (1 + r )
At
P
Pt +1 = (1 + r ) t +1 At = (1 + r )(1 + t +1 ) At
Pt
Pt
{
=1+ t +1
, t+1, .
, , t+1 = 0,05 (5%), At+1 = (1+0,03)(1+0,05)*
1000 = 1081,5. t+1 = 0,10 (10%), At+1 = (1+0,03)(1+0,10)*1000
= 1133.
..
, 5
t,
. , , 3% (=r)
.
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.
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..
. . 5.2 , .
, .
.
, , . ,
,
. , , , . .
, .
5.2.
. . ,
, . .
. ,
20%, t YN,t = 1000, t+1 t+1 = 10% 0%.
t+1 YN,t+1 = (1+t+1)*YN,t = (1+0,1)*1000 = 1100. ,
YN ,t +1
Pt +1
YN ,t
Pt
YN ,t +1 =
Pt +1
YN ,t = (1 + t +1 ) YN ,t
Pt
{
=1+ t +1
. / , , , . .
,
.
, ,
. . ,
,
,
..
, 5
, ,
.
, 50 , , 100.000 5%.
5.000 80 ,
100.000. 65 ,
100.000. , , , ,
.
, ,
.
,
100.000. , , . .
- ,
, t+1 tt+1, , t+1
= tt+1, .
. , ,
, , , .
. , .
,
. ,
, .
) . , . .
i. . , .
ii. . , , : , , , . . , Milton Friedman,
Chicago University,
.
..
, 5
. t
YN,t = 1000, Pt = 10/,
M0,t = 50. 50,
. - 5%
(=50/1000), M0,t / Pt =
50/(10/) = 5 . t
5 .
, , t+1 t+1 = 10%.
Pt+1 = (1+t+1)*Pt = (1+0,10)*[10/] = 11/, 50
4,55 ( = 50/[11/]). 50
,
4,55 , 10%
50 .
5 4,55 .
, , t, t+1 . , .
, , , it = 0, , rt = 0 t+1 = t+1.
.
iii. - . .
15% 10,000. 10,000, 10,000
0,15. , , 2005 10,000
P2005 = 10/.
1000 (=10,000/[10/]). , 2006, P2006 = 12/,
2006 = 0,20 (20%).
, 20%,
12,000, 2006
2005, 1000 .
,
. , 2006 300 , 15% 2006. , 12,000 10,000 = 2,000.
11,700 ( = 12,000 300), (11,700)/[
12/] = 975.
2006 25 , .
. ,
, 12,000,
.
, , . . ,
..
10
, 5
.
. ,
, , ,
.
iv. . 1990
200,000. , , , 400,000. , . , ,
10%,
0,10*(400,000 200,000) = 20,000. , 400,000 20,000 = 380,000,
. .
2. ,
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5.2. -
1000 NoValues, t = 1000 NV, NoValue Utopia.
, , NV10/.
, 100. ,
1000NV / ( NV10/ ).
NV20/, NoValue 50%,
, 50.
,
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, Exchange Rate-based Stabilization Programs. ,
Inflation Stabilization and Nominal Anchors Guillermo A. Calvo Carlos A.
Vgh, 4 Approaches to Exchange Rate Policy IMF
Institute 1994, Macroeconomic Adjustment as a Priority, 4
Crisis and Reform in Latin America From Despair to Hope Sebastian Edwards, (World Bank) 1995.
5.3. Exchange-Rate-based Stabilization Programs
. , . ,
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40
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[%] 1990-2005
: International Financial Statistics.
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) (inflation premium).
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..
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L = = 0,8* = 0,2*
, r d = 3%.
,
it = r d + Ett+1 = r d +
: rH, , rL, .
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, 50% - 50%.
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, ,
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.
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rd
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d
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= 0,6%, rH = 5,4%. = 6% -1,8%
7,8%.
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17
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= 20%. , H = 36%, 13%. .
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it = r d + Ett+1 + RP = r d + + RP
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, ,
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RP.
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Utopia NoValue, NV, .
NoValue St = NV10/.
1 NV10. , - ,
.
. , : St = St+1 =
NV10/. Utopia, .
Utopia
it = 3%, t = 1000, .
At = 1000 Wt NoValues
Wt = At*St = 1000*NV10/ = NV10000
Wt it
t+1
Wt+1 = (1+it)*Wt
= (1+it)*At*St
= (1+0,030)*NV10000 = NV10300
Wt+1 t+1
At +1 =
=
..
Wt +1 (1 + it ) Wt
=
St +1
St +1
(1 + it ) At St
= (1 + it ) At
142
4 43
4
St +1
S t +1 = S t
18
, 5
..
19
, 5
, , ,
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, : .
5.7.
Utopia
.
, . .
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, ,
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1 = 0,10 (10%). .
.
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.
, , .
Utopia it,
(1 + it) = 0,90
0
1 = 0,10
it ,min =
1 + t
1 > t
, ,
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, : . . , ,
.
Utopia, 1.000.000
5%. , 50.000 . S = NV10/, 50.000 NV500.000.
20%, S = NV12/,
20% NV600.000. , , .
.
..
20
, 5
, ,
, .
5.8.
Determinants and Impact of
Sovereign Credit Ratings Richard Cantor Frank Packer (Economic Policy Review, Federal
Reserve Bank of New York, October 1996, pp. 77 53) Standard & Poors Moodys,
.
, (sovereign credit ratings), ,
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Keynes
.
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, 6
In fact, the new economy has created such downward pressure on prices that it is
safe to say inflation is dead dead as a doornail.
.
The real threat to the economy right now is not growth but the government putting
an artificial stop to it by raising interest rates.
The new economy is strong and resilient. At the same time we are experiencing
dramatic growth, we are experiencing deflationary pressures.
(The New Economy Is Stronger Than You Think, by William A. Sahlamn, Harvard Business Review, November December 1999, pp. 99-106.)
( ) , .
.
. , .
, .
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2000.
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(business cycles) , (expansion
growth) (recession contraction). ,
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Depression) 1930 ( 6.8). , 1 Keynes,
. , (stagflation), ,
1973,
, ,
.
. , ,
.
6.2
. , , . , .
, Victor Zarnowitz,
, 2
recurrent sequences of alternating phases of expansion and contraction that involve a great number of diverse economic processes and show up as distinct fluctuations in comprehensive series on production, employment, income and trade
aspects of aggregate activity. The end of each expansion is marked by a cluster of
peaks in such series; the end of each contraction, by a cluster of troughs.
John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, 1936.
Business Cycles Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, by Victor Zarnowitz, Chicago
University Press, 1992, p. 283.
..
, , :
, 6
, . ,
Zarnowitz, ,
.
(Business Cycle Dating Committee) ... National Bureau of Economic Research NBER
(www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html),
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income,
employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins
just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy
reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they
have been rare in recent decades.
, ,
, , , . (business cycle indicators).
, .
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NBER Center for International Business Studies Columbia
. -, Center for
Economic Policy Research CEPR 2003 ,
www.cepr.org/data/
Dating. NBER.
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NBER 17 2003, .
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12.000
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9
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3
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1960:1
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(GDP potential growth rate) , 6.2. ,
6.1.
,
6.1. 6.2, ,
-, 1960 1974, 1975 1995
1996 2005. - .
..
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, 6
, , .
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4
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6.2 . , : 0,93% 1960 1974, 0,77% . , 0,80%. ,
-. ,
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6.3,
. 6.1,
6.2.
(peak)
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, .
..
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, 6
(turning points).
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, 4 5, , , 6 13, , .
6.3.
10
11
12
13
14
10
11
12
13
14
6 10 ,
, 11 13 , . ,
7 11, 6, 12 13.
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gap), , . , , , 6,
. , 7 9,
. , (positive output
gap) 10 13,
.
(recovery) ,
. 6.3, 6, 7 8.
6.1.
.
,
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.
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0,7% , 40%
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. , ,
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, , , .
(depth)
(diffusion).
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, . , , , , . ,
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NBER : .
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www.nber.org/cycles/#announcements. , 1854 2001
32 , 55 17 38 .
, 1945 2001, 10
, 67 , , 10 , , 57 , .
-, CEPR
1970.
1974:1
1975:1
1980:1
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..
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6.3
, , , . , , . , , , , , .
,
, , , .4 , 1930, . , , . ,
,
1970, .
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, , Zarnowitz,
.
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, .5 4
,
, Business Cycles in International Historical Perpsective, by Susanto Basu and Alan M. Taylor, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 13, No. 2,
Summer 1999, pp. 45 68. 15 , 1870 20 , .
.
5
, . Business Cycles Theory, History,
..
, , :
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,
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(depression). , ,
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. .
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1990,
,
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.
=
+ +
+
( )
,
.
. , . , , . , ... 1980,
, ... 2000, , 1999 ( 5.13
, 1999 2005).
Indicators, and Forecasting Victor Zarnowitz , . , , . Recessions and Depressions Understanding Business
Cycles, Todd A. Knoop, Praeger Publications, 2004, , .
..
, , :
10
, 6
,
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6
, Theory and History Behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the
Onset of a Golden Age?, by Victor Zarnowitz, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 13, No. 2,
Spring 1999, pp. 69 90.
..
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11
, 6
, .
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(soft landing) ,
(hard landing).
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, Rudiger Dornbusch, ..., 1997: 40
. Fed. Fed ....
.
.
.
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, 6
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,
, 1992 2004.
. , 5.13 , 1999 2005.
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1960 Fed.
, 2000.
, .
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). , .. ,
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.
, .
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.
... 1990,
G. Bush.
. ,
. , .
, ,
, , . ,
, .
, . () . , 1990 ( 5.13 , 1999
2005). , 40% .
, ,
7
,
VII Cycles and the Financial System, 71st Annual Report, Bank for International Settlements, pp. 123-141.
..
, , :
13
, 6
.
, .
, , ( ) . 5.12 5.13.
, :
, ,
, . , , ,
.
,
, .
.
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6.3.
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7 .
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,
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6.4.
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, . 1,5
, .
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, .
6.5.
1990 . , ,
.
1920 ....
. , , 1914
,
. The Adjustment of
Expectations to A Change in Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve, by N.
Gregory Mankiw, Jeffrey A. Miron and David N. Weil, American Economic Review, Vol. 77, No. 3,
pp. 358 374.
1929. , Irving Fisher (plateau). .
, 1960, .
..
, , :
15
, 6
. ..., , NBER, 1961 1969. 1968 (Department of
Commerce), ,
Business Cycle Digest Business Conditions Digest.
,
1990 , ,
, .
, .
,
, 1994, .. , 1997, .
, .
.
1947 o Arthur Burns,
NBER,
For all over a century, business cycles have run an uneasy round. They have persisted
through vast economic and social changes; they have withstood countless experiments in
industry, agriculture, banking, industrial relations, and public policy; they have confounded
forecasters without a number, belied repeated prophesies of a new era of prosperity and
outlived repeated forebodings of chronic depression.
, , ,
. , . , .
, , , . , 1929 1933 ..., 1990
.. .
.
,
200 10 . , -
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, ,
, .
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. ,
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, 6,9 3,6 ,
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, 86,6% 75,3%.
6.1. 120
[%]
-4,3
-8,1
-2,1
-2,5
[]
1,3
1,8
1,1
1,5
24,7
29,4
5,2
13,4
58,9
77,4
63,6
96,2
[%]
19,8
34,6
102,9
26,9
[]
3,6
3,7
10,3
6,9
75,3
70,6
94,8
86,6
[%]
2,8
3,8
5,3
2,6
: 3.1, Recessions and Recoveries, chapter 3 in World Economic Outlook,
International Monetary Fund, April 2002, p. 108.
. . , : )
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) .
6.6.
, , , : ,
, ,
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1. .
9 , .
. , . ,
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9 , ,
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9 (automatic fiscal stabilizers)
. -
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, 6
9
9
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debt deflation ( 5.11 5.12).
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1930 ( 6.8 ), Fed (depression).
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1930.
. , 4.6 Regulation Q.
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18
, 6
.
.
.
, , ,
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, . 1999 2005 ( 5.13).
6.4
, . , .
, ..., . : , , .
Robert Lucas, University of Chicago, .
,
. Lucas
,
... ,
1% (1/10 1%) .
, ,
. ,
20%,
2%.8
.
, , : , . , , ,
, , , ,
.
.
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Lucas . , 8
The Cost of
Business Cycles and the Benefits of Stabilization: A Survey, by Gadi Barlevy, NBER Working
Paper 10926, November 2004. Lucas Models of Business Cycles, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1987.
..
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19
, 6
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. , 7%
1990 1996 ( ), 1998: -6,9% , -7,4% , -10,5% -13,1%
. , ( ).
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..
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21
, 6
, , 1999, . ,
1999 2005 (
). 2,1% () 4,1% ().
:
2005
1990 1996.
37% , 55% , 58% 70% . ,
.
, 2005
. !
.. [%],
10
2
-2
-5
-10
-15
-6
-10
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
12
10
12
-4
-4
-8
-8
-12
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
, 1) , 2) , 3)
..., 4) , 5) .
.
, (1), (2), (3) (5)
. (4) (5)
.
,
, Anne Kruger.
, Kruger
Devaluation then left financial institutions facing massive losses, or insolvency The
contraction in GDP that most crisis countries experienced made things even worse, of
course, because the number, and size, of non-performing loans grew rapidly. The further
weakening of the financial sector inevitably had adverse consequences for the economy
as a whole. In short, the crisis economies found themselves in a vicious downward spiral.
.... ,
6.6,
..
, , :
22
, 6
,
.
. . ,
.
6.8. 1930
1930, Great Depression,
.
, 1929 1930 , ,
1992 1993, 25% 30% ,
, ... , 10% 15% , , , ,
. , 10%.
,
. , , , Keynes 1936,
, .
, ( Box 3.2. The Great Depression
World Economic Outlook):
...,
(Gold Standard).
, Fed 1928,
.
.
, : , 1929. 1929.
. 9000 , . ,
. , 5.11
5.12 & .
Fed, , ,
, , .
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. ..., 40%
, . ,
..., ,
.
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,
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13 14, 13.6 -- .
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23
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6.5
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. . , ,
, , (business cycles indicators). , , NBER, Center for International
Business Research Columbia Conference Board
(www.conference-board.org/economics), - ,
.... ,
- . NBER.
:
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(leading), (coincident)
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, Cyclical Indicators and Business Tendency Surveys, OECD, 1997,
.... (www.oecd.org).
(europa.eu.int), Conference Board (www.conference-board/economics), Economic Cycle Research Institute (www.businesscycle.com)
..
, , :
26
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6.4
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28
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2%. -2%. 1990
2% ( , 1990 1991).
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Leading Economic Indicators Divining the Future, January 13, 2005).
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....
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(report)
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(moderate)
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11
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1990, . NBER, 1990 1991. Bush
.
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9 , 19 . .
6.6 , , .
1960 2006.
6.6.
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140
120
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19
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..
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32
, 6
.............................................................................................................. 1
6.1 ............................................................................................................................... 1
6.2 ......................................................................................................... 2
6.3 ........................................................................................ 9
6.4 .......................................................................... 19
6.5 .......................................................................... 24
.............................................................................................................. 1
6.1 ............................................................................................................................... 1
6.2 ......................................................................................................... 2
. ............................................................................................................................3
6.1. ... [$], 1960 2005 .............................................4
6.2. ... [%], 1960 2005.....5
.......................................................................................................................................5
6.3. ...................................................6
6.1. ...........................................6
6.2. ..............................................................8
6.3 ........................................................................................ 9
6.3. ............................. 14
6.4. .................................. 14
6.5. .................. 15
6.6. .............................. 17
6.1. 120 ................................................................... 17
6.4 .......................................................................... 19
6.7. .. ......... 21
6.8. 1930 ....................................... 23
6.5 .......................................................................... 24
. .......................................................................................................................................... 24
6.4. .......................................................... 27
6.9. .................................................................... 24
6.5. ..................................... 28
............................................................................................................. 28
6.10. ............... 28
6.11. ........................................................ 29
6.6. ...................... 31
6.12. ....... 32
..
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33
, 6
, , , .
.
..
, , :
34
& 7
We would love to have three laws that explain 99% of economic behaviour; instead we have 99 laws that explain maybe 3% of economic behaviour.
(Andrew Lo, MIT Professor, quoted in The Economist, May 18th 2002)
99% . , 99
3% .
. Andrew Lo, (MIT),
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& 7
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, UNC. , i, .
Disposable Income , Expected Disposable Income , Wealth
, Uncertainty interest rate .
(7.2). , +
: +
, . . ? .
+ ?
+ +
C = C YD, EYD, UNC , W , i
(7.2)
+
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= C , , ( ), ( ), ( )
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,
1 2.
YD = 100,
Ew = 80.
EYD = Ew + ( 1+ i ) SP1,
(Life-Cycle Hypothesis) Franco Modigliani (Permanent Income Hypothesis) Milton Friedman. , 15 Macroeconomics (3rd
Edition) N.Gregory Mankiw, Worth Publishers, New York, 1997. , , , 7.4.
. &
SP1 . ,
, ,
i = 0.
, . , . ,
, , ,
C1 = C2.
,
,
C1 + C2 = (YD - SP1 ) + ( Ew + ( 1+ 0 ) SP1 ) = YD + Ew.
, ,
C1 = C2 = (YD + Ew)/2.
.
, , , C1 = C2.
1
YD = 100
EYD = Ew + ( 1+ i ) SP1
= 80 + ( 1+ 0 ) SP1
C1 = 90
SP1 = YD - C1 = 10
C2 = Ew + ( 1+ 0 ) SP1 = 90
,
, C1. ,
YD C1
Ew EYD C1 .
, ,
YD, , Ew + (1+i)SP1, YD
Ew .
, YD 1, C1 1, 0,5. Ew 1.
. , , , , C1 > C2,
, C1 < C2. , ,
, SP.
SP = YD C,
YD, . , YD=100, C
= 90 SP = 10. , SP = 10 C = 90.
10
& 7
, YD, , .
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7.1 = 10.
.
, F. Altissimo, E. Georgiou,
T. Sastre, M.T. Valderrama, G. Sterne, M. Stocker, M. Weth, K. Whelan A. Willman Wealth
and Asset Price Effects on Economic Activity, European Central Bank, Occasional Paper No.
29, 2005.
11
...
. &
YD = 100
EYD = Ew + ( 1+ i ) SP1
= 80 + ( 1+ 0 ) SP1
C1 = 95
SP1 = YD + - C1 = 15
C2 = Ew + ( 1+ 0 ) SP1 = 95
7.1. ,
,
.
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3 5 cents. ,
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; 1999,
101%, NASDAQ 210%
485%.
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1,5% 2,5%, .
, ,
0,75% 0,5% 2001 2002 (Greece: Economic & Market Analysis, AprilMay 2002). , EFG Eurobank,
10% 0,16% 0,11% (Eurobank Research & , 5, 15 2006).
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Eurobank 1,82% 1,22%.
.
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& 7
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i = 0.05 (5%).
, , : , C1 = C2. ,
, .
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0.10 (10%) .
1
YD = 100
Ew = 80
i = 0,05 (5%)
C1 = 90
SP1 = YD - C1 = 10
i = 0,10 (10%)
1
C1 = 89
SP1 = YD - C1 = 11
C1 = 90,3
SP1 = YD - C1 = 9,7
, , SP1 = 11 10 , 1, C1 =
89 90 , 2,
C2 = 92,1 90,5.
,
1, 90,3 90, , 9,7 10,
2, 90,67 90,5, .
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(7.2), ,
~
C . (7.2), + ~
C .
+
~ +
C = C EYD, UNC , W + bYD
(7.2)
C = bYD.
,
=
*
, The Economics of Saving and Growth Theory, Evidence and Implications for
Policy, edited by Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel and Luis Servn, Cambridge University Press, 1999, .
8.
4
, .
14
& 7
7.4.
YD YD+1.
~
C = C + bYD
~
~
C ' = C + b(YD + 1) = (C + bYD) + b = C + b.
C = C 'C = b.
, YD,
~
~
C ' = C + b(YD + YD) = (C + bYD) + bYD = C + bYD.
C = C 'C = bYD.
(7.2) YD.
.
~
b = 0,9, C = 0, YD = 100, YD = 1,
C = 90, C ' = 90,9 C = 0,9.
b . , ,
,
.
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7.2. b
, ,
.
. , 0,97, b.
1960-2005 97 cents .
.
1960-2005
( 2000), , $
30
25
b = 0,97
20
15
10
5
5
10
15
20
25
30
YD
: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
15
,
.
. &
, .
1,
, b > 0, 1, b < 1.
0<b<1
, ,
, b < 1. ,
, b = 1. ,
1, 1, b > 1.
7.3. b
< 1 , , .
7.3. b
, . ,
. , .
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C1 = C2 = (YD + Ew)/2.
. , ,
, .
.
, YD = 100 Ew = 200, 50 (S1
= 50), C1 = C2 = 150. , . ,
,
: Ew = 200 > 100 = YD.
.
, YD = 100 Ew = 200, 50 (S1 = 50).
, ,
, : C1 =
YD = 100 < 150 = (YD + Ew)/2.
, YD = 220 Ew = 100, C1 = 160 S1 = 60.
, .
, , , C1 = YD = 100,
, , .
.
9 , . .
9 , , , .
9
, , .., , , , , , , .
9
.
b .
YD .
16
& 7
, 0,5.
, 4, YD = 4,
3, C = 3. , b = C/YD = 3/4 < 1.
, .
,
.
0 < b < 1, -
. , -
, SP, . ,
~
S P = YD C = (1 b)YD C
S P = YD C = (1 b ) YD
(7.3)
(0 < 1 b < 1)
(7.3)
1,
b < 1,
(1b) <
1,
, , b. , .
, , - b
. ,
.
YD, b C SP .
.
, , , NFI = 0.
NFI
. , , Y, ( [2.5])
NFI = 0 GDP = GNP
, .
, INT,
, TA,
, TR INT, (7.4)
YD = Y TA + TR + INT
(7.4)
,
= ( ) +
+
, , , , . , , .
-, , ,
, ,
, . , -
17
. &
, .
, ( ) .
,
.
, , .
NFI = 0 ( [2.6]).
NFI = 0 CA = NX = -
.
, : (), , , , ,
, , TA,
( 7.5), t
. ,
TA = tY
( 0 < t < 1)
(7.5)
( ) = *
t . , ,
( TR). !
, . , ,
. , .
, ,
.
, (7.5)
. ,
.
(7.4) (7.5)
YD = (1 t )Y + TR + INT
YD = (1 t ) Y
(0 < 1 t < 1)
(7.4)
(7.4)
, ,
Y, , YD,
, t, . , :
. . ,
18
& 7
Y, t YD = ( 1 t ) Y.
, (7.2) (7.4)
+
~ +
C = C EYD ,UNC ,W + b (1 t )Y + bTR + bINT
(7.2)
C = b (1 t ) Y
1424
3
(7.2)
YD
, ,
Y, , b , , t . ,
Y > 0, b t C =
b (1 t ) Y
14243
YD
.
, , ,
, . , .
, ,
. , , . .
,
. ,
, . ,
, , .
, . , ,
. , , .
, , , i,
, INVx,
, MPK.
19
,
,
.
. &
MPK
INVx
i
. :
7.4.
7.4.
MPK
INVx
. :
i
.
(7.6) . +
.
+
I = I i , MPK , INVx
(7.6)
,
+
( ) = (), ,
. , ,
. , ,
, .
, , 7.4, . -
20
& 7
. . , 7.4.
7.4.
, , , ,
, , , . ,
. , .
%
1970 1985
..
...
44,1
55,2
33,7
72,0
66,9
41,5
21,1
40,7
21,4
23,1
10,6
2,1
3,5
4,9
0,8
2,3
0,7
3,1
0,8
9,7
: Franklin Allen Douglas Gale (2001), . 52, Comparing Financial Systems, The
MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
,
.
. , 1980 , 4.4, ,
.
, . []. .
=
= MPK*P []
=
= A*i []
[]
= *i []
,
, P.
MPK
Marginal Product of Capital.
(, , , ,), MPK
, , . , .
MPK, ,
. .
(, ...). . , , -
21
MPK
.
MPK:
.
. &
Toyota 1000
. 1000
( ), Toyota , 500,
500 ( ).
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i, . i .
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(7.6).
22
& 7
7.5. ;
i . ,
, , , (, ,).
Datastream 100
, 50 .
, 2003, 45
. (harmonized)
..., - . , The Use of Harmonized Interest Rate Statistics,
ECB Monthly Bulletin, 2005, . 8592.
, .
.
. ,
. .
i ,
.
.
10 11.
(7.6) ,
. (7.2).
~ +
(d>0)
(7.6)
I = I MPK , INVx di
~
I ,
d.
d . ,
I = d i
(7.6)
= *
i (>0) , < 0, . , ,
d. ,
i > 0, d = d i < 0
b m, d . .
23
. &
.
, G, .
t, , TR. , , ,
, .
.
SG.
S G = TA G TR INT =
tY3 G TR INT
12
(7.7)
( 7 .5 )
, Yf, .
, ,
. , , ( 7.4 7.2 ). ,
, , .
.
7.5.
Yf
. :
, -
24
& 7
. , . .
13.3 , , R. , R ,
, , R , .
, .
, , ,
.
.
, , , . , . ,
.
, . 13.
(7.8).
+
X = X Y f , R
(7.8)
,
+
( ) = ,
. ,
. , ,
.
, . , , .
.
, , Y, , R.
, , .
.
7.6 7.9.
25
..
. &
7.6.
. :
+ +
IM = IM Y , R
(7.9)
,
+
+
( ) = ,
, (7.9)
~ +
IM = M R + mY
(0 < m < 1)
(7.9)
~
M .
b , m, , . ,
,
.
,
IM = mY
(7.9)
= *
, Y, m
, IM. ,
Y, m = m .
26
& 7
,
. , ,
,
. , , ,
.
, .
CA = NX + NFI = X IM + NFI
(7.10)
. , :
. ,
= .
AS = AD
(7.11)
, .
AS = Y
(7.12)
, ,
,
Y.
(7.9 )
~
~
AD = (b (1 t ) m )Y + C + bTR + bINT + I + G + X M
(7.1)
, , , b m,
, t.
AD = (b (1 t ) m )Y
(7.1)
AD = (b(1 t ) m )Y = b (1 t ) Y m
Y
{
123
IM
14YD
243
C
, , . -
27
b, t
m.
. &
, Y,
9 : t YD
9 : b C
9 : m
IM.
,
AD
= b (1 t ) m Y = b (1 t ) Y m
3
Y
1
424
1
424
3
IM
YD
1442
44
3
C
, > 0,
. , C > 0,
, > 0. ,
, AD > 0. , b(1 t ) m > 0. 0 < b < 1 0 < t < 1,
28
& 7
7.3. &
AD = C + I + G + X IM
(7.1)
~
~
= (b(1 t ) m )Y + C + bTR + bINT + I + G + X M
AD = (b(1 t ) m )Y
(0 < b (1 t ) m < 1)
+
+
C = C YD, EYD, UNC , W
+
~ +
= C EYD,UNC ,W + bYD
(0<b<1)
S P = YD C
S P = YD C = (1 b)YD
(7.1)
(7.2)
+
~ +
= C EYD,UNC ,W + b(1 t )Y + bTR + bINT
C = b YD = b(1 t ) Y
(7.1)
(7.2)
(7.2)
(7.2)
(7.3)
(0<1b<1)
YD = Y TA + TR + INT
= (1 t)Y + TR + INT
(7.4)
(7.4)
(0<1t <1)
(7.4)
TA = tY
(0< t <1)
(7.5)
NFI = 0
TR, INT:
(7.6)
(0<d)
(7.6)
= di
(7.6)
SG = TA G TR INT = tY G TR INT
(7.7)
+
X = X Y f , R
(7.8)
+ +
IM = IM Y , R
(7.9)
~ +
= M R + mY
(7.3)
YD = (1 t)Y
+
I = I i , MPK , INVx
~
= I MPK , INVx di
(0<m<1)
(7.9)
IM = mY
(7.9)
CA = NX + NFI = X IM + NFI
(7.10)
AS = AD
(7.11)
Y = AS
(7.12)
, & .
29
. &
7.4
,
, , .
- . , (), ()
().
,
. ,
.
, , ,
~
C. , . , ~
~
I M . , X. 8.4.
.
, P. -
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. . ,
, .
,
.
, . 5.3
.
5.4 .
. ,
, EYD, . , , , , .
. ,
, . , EYD.
, . ,
, . : , , ,
( 5.4).
:
.
. .
, , . ,
= 3% imin = 0,
rmin = imin = 3%. , ,
. ,
,
30
& 7
. , ,
. ,
.
, ,
.
. 1990 ( 5.13).
, . ,
, . , .
, ,
.
. ,
. 7.7.
, , ,
, .
, ,
.
, , .
,
, .
x y ,
y , ,
x .
7.7.
31
,
.
. &
. .
7.1 7.3.
, . ,
,
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.
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,
. , , ,
.
. , ,
5
- .
(credit
.
channel)
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, .
, .
, , , , , , , , , . , .
, , ,
1990, : .
, ,
. , ,
. , , . .
,
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.
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- : , . . 10.5.
32
& 7
1 2 7.8.
7.3.
7.8.
YD
EYD
UNC
i
,
, ,
. :
3, 4 5 .
, 7.3 7.8
,
.
. ,
, . , YD . , , .
Laursen-Metzler-Harberger effect.
, ,
. , , ,
, .
, , , .
. 5.3 Exchange-Rate-based Stabilization Programs 14 15.
, , .
.
33
. &
.
. ,
, :
.
, :
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.
, , ,
, . , ,
.
, , ,
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.
1990 .
, ,
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.
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, .
.
, S < I, , CA < 0,
.
, CF . .
, , , , , , .
: , .
, , , . , , .
, - . .
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34
& 7
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:
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James Tobin q, Tobins q.
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/ .
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q ,
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.
q. ,
MPK (7.6).
.
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MPK (7.6).
,
.
35
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. , , . -
1999.
, , ,
,
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.
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7.8, 7.9 . 7.4,
1 4 .
7.9.
MPK
INVx
4
1
2
. :
36
& 7
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,
MPK. ,
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.
.
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37
. &
& .
,
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.
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, .
, , Utopia $10 NoValue NV8/$.
NV80 (=$10.*NV8/$). NoValue NV10/$,
NV100 .
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:
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.
Uncertainty
Tariffs
Corruption
Subsidies
Aggregate Demand
Exchange Rate
Nominal
Real
Variables
Endogenous
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Households
Credit-Constrained
Myopic
Rational
Marginal Propensity to
Import
Consume
Environment
Institutional
Political
Wealth
UNC
EYD
AD
S
R
m
b
38
& 7
Quotas
Access to Credit
Aggregate Supply
Relative Cost
Technical Progress
Excess Inventories
Life-Cycle Hypothesis
Laursen-Metzler-Harberger
Laursen-Metzler-Harberger effect
Stock Market
AS
INVx
.
1.
,
, UNC, , EYD, .
2.
. AD
= AS = Y, .
3.
4.
3, 4 5 7.8.
5.
7.4, ,
7.9.
6.
. 1980 ( 4.4).
,
.
7.
AD = AS = Y,
) , ,
,
)
.
8.
39
. &
................................................................................. 1
7.1 ............................................................................................................................... 1
7.2 .................................................................................................... 2
7.3 & ..................................................... 7
7.4 .................................................................................. 30
....................................................................... 38
............................................................................................................................. 39
................................................................................. 1
7.1 ............................................................................................................................... 1
7.2 .................................................................................................... 2
. ..........................................................................................................................................2
7.1. ......................................................... 2
. ............................................................................................3
7.2. .................................. 3
7.1. , ........................ 3
. ....................................................................................................................................4
7.2. ...................................... 4
...............................................................................................................................................5
. ............................................................................................................6
7.4 .................................................................................. 30
. ............................................................................................................................... 30
7.7. .................................................................... 31
7.8. ...................... 33
. .................................................................................................................................. 34
7.9. ............................................... 36
. ......................................................................................................... 37
& . ......................................................................... 38
........................................................................ 38
.............................................................................................................................. 39
40
7
.
.
. .
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26
.
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.
/
1.
,
, UNC, , EYD, .
...
,
.
2.
. AD = AS
= Y,
.
UNC
AD = C + I + G + X - IM
AS = AD
Y = AS
....
3. .
1 :
, INVx
, I
AD = C + I + G + X - IM
AS = AD
Y = AS
2 :
, MPK
, I
AD = C + I + G + X - IM
AS = AD
Y = AS
4.
3, 4 5 7.8.
3
W
( )
5
,
,
( )
,
, .
5.
7.4, ,
7.9.
.
6.
.
1980
( 4.4).
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.
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). .
.
10, .
8.
,
,
.
, .
, !
& 8
,
There are three kinds of writings in economics: Greek-letter, up-and-down, and
airport.
(Paul Krugman, The Age of Diminished Expectations, The MIT Press, 1994, p. ix)
: -, , .
Paul Krugman, , Massachusetts Institute of
Technology MIT Princeton, 2008,
. .
Greek-letter economics
, ,
. , .
,
.
up-and-down economics , , .
, , , . , , .
, .
airport economics (best-sellers)
.
. ,
, , , . ,
.
, , . .
, :
Greek-letter economics up-and-down economics , , . , airport-economics.
. &
8.1
Keynes
: .
, , IS/LM,
The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money
John Maynard Keynes.
1936, 1930 (
6.8).
.
,
,
, , .
, .
. , 1960
(
6). ,
, Robert Lucas,
1995.
, .
. ,
,
.
, ,
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,
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:
,
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& 8
.
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, , ,
, . 7.2 7.4,
. ,
,
. , .
,
IS/LM. , , , , .
, . , ,
,
.
, , . ,
up-and-down economics. , Greek-letter economics ,
.
8.2
.
, -
, -
.
.
7.3.
.
8.1
. , .
, .
,
, (
[7.7]), . .
, .
. &
8.1.
EYD,
UNC,
MPK
.
. , UNC MPK .
~
9 EYD UNC C
( [7.2 ])
9 MPK ( [7.6]).
. . ~
() C
( [7.2 ]), .
NFI (=0),
TR, INT
. ,
.
INVx
. , . ( [7.6]).
I, i
IS/LM .
.
t, TR. , .
X, R
Mundell-Fleming.
, R, ( [7.8])
( [7.9]). ~
M .
Yf
.
Mundell-Fleming . ( [7.8]).
: :
, .
.
.
,
, 7.3 7.6
8.1. , ,
.
& 8
8.1.
TR
YD
~
C
/ t
R
EYD
UNC
i
,
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C
YD
TR
/ t
EYD
UNC
i
,
, ,
. &
.
, . , ,
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. ,
-
& = & =
AD = AS = Y
(7.1), (8.1)
. .
(7.1 )
(7.11), (7.12)
~
~
AD = (b(1 t ) m )Y + C + bTR + bINT + I + G + X M =
AS =3
Y
14444444444
4244444444444
3 1424
:
,
b, t, m
:
.
YE =
1
~
~
C + bTR + bINT + I + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
(8.1)
(8.1),
~
~
, C , TR, , , G, X M , b, t, m.
, , .
7.3.
(8.1) .
8.3 . , ,
( 7.3), .
0 < b(1 t ) m < 1
1
>1
1 b(1 t ) + m
(8.2)
. , . 8.2.
& 8
8.2. &
: AD = Y
AD
AD
AD
E
AD(Y ) = (b(1 t ) m )Y
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
I +G+ X M
~
~
+ C + bTR + bINT + I + G + X M
AD: b(1 t) m
: AD(YE) = YE.
45
Y
,
AD
ADB <YB
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
I +G+ X M
AD
ADA>YA
45
h h h h h
g g g g g
, ADA
> YA:
ADA,
,
,
.
,
, AD<Y.
Y
,
. &
. . 8.3,
: ADA(YA)
AD(Y)
45.
. , , ,
.
.
, . , ,
, . , , .
.
8.1. &
, b, t m,
. :
b = 0,8
~
C =3
t = 0,25
m = 0,1
TR = 2
INT = 3
I = 15
G = 21
X = 16
~
M =9
NFI = 0
. , , , , , , , .
.
(8.1)
YE =
=
~
~
1
C + bTR + bINT + I + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
(3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 + 15 + 21 + 16 9) = 2 * 50 = 100
1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1
.
= t*YE = 0,25*100 = 25
(7.5)
DE = YE TA + TR + INT = 100 25 + 2 + 3 = 80
~
CE = C + bYDE = 3 + 0,8*80 = 67
(7.4)
SP,E = YDE CE = 80 67 = 13
(7.3)
(7.7)
(7.10)
DE = CE + I + G + X IME = 67 + 15 + 21 + 16 19 = 100
(7.1)
ASE = YE = 100
(7.12)
(8.1)
Y = AD
SP,E + SG,E = I + CAE
(7.2)
(7.9)
& 8
.
(7.1), , AD, , Y:
~
~
AD(Y ) = (b(1 t ) m ) * Y + C + bTR + bINT + G + I + X M
100
120
AD = 50 + 0,5*Y
90
100
110
&
AD
110
CA = 55
I = 15
G = 21
X = 16
IMA = 17
90
50
AD
E
: 0,5
45
80
h h h h h
100
g g g g g
120
CB = 79
I = 15
G = 21
X = 16
IMB = 21
Y
,
, .
8.4. 1 2 ,
, ( [7.4]) ( [7.9]), .
8.4 , ,
.
, , C, I, G, X ,
. .
.
. &
8.4.
2
Y
1
TR
YD
MPK
/ t
INVx
Yf
EYD
UNC
i
,
, ,
. :
. : , .
:
1. 1 2 , (
[7.4]) ( [7.9]), .
2. , .
10 .
& 8
8.3
b, t
m, ,
. , .
, , .
.
, ,
.
, .
,
.
, ,
.
, (8.2), YE
~
C , TR, INT, G, I X , ~
t M . , 8.2.
YE =
1
~
~
C + bTR + bINT + I+ G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
(8.3)
YE
~
~
C , TR, INT, G, I X , t M .
8.2
,
.
,
. .
.
, G ,
.
.
. G
YE =
1
G
1 b (1 t ) + m
(8.4)
(8.4) (8.1)
G.
11
=
=
=
. &
YE
G
1
1 b(1 t ) + m
, G+G G
(8.1). ,
YE =
> 1
YE > G.
~
1
1
~
C + bTR + bINT + I + [G + G ] + X M = YE +
G
1 b(1 t ) + m
1 b(1 t ) + m
, G, , b m, , t. b t m
,
, . . , ,
, ,
(7.1) .
, (8.4) ,
, YE > G. , G = 1, 1, . , .
, 7.3,
, G, , b, t m. 8.2 . ,
(8.4), .
12 .
& 8
8.2. G
8.4 (8.3)
AS
AS = Y
(7.12)
AD
, AD = AS
(7.11)
YD
(7.4)
YD = (1 t )Y +TR + INT
~
C = C + bYD
TA
(7.5)
IM
TA = tY
~
IM = M + mY
(7.9)
NX, CA
NX = X IM
CA = NX + NFI
(7.10)
SP = YD C
(7.3)
SP
SG
(7.2)
: , G , .
.
, 8.4.
,
AD G
AD. AD 45 ,
YE.
8.4 , YE = YE , (8.4). .
13
. &
8.5.
G
AD
AD
0
0
AD
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
I +G+ X M
45
E
Y0
Y
,
YE
. : , ( ):
AD = CE + I + G + X IME = AS = Y.
G, : 0.
0, 45, G.
ADA0 = CE + I + (G+G) + X IME = ADE + G = YE + G > YE
AD0 = G
, 0
0.
, G.
, ,
.
. , ,
,
: 0 ( 45,
0 00 .).
, , . ! . Y0 = G, ,
(7.4),
(1 t)0,
, (7.2),
C1 = b(1 t)Y0.
14 .
& 8
, (7.9),
IM1 = mY0.
, , (4.1),
YDi =
(1-t)Yi-1
Ci =
bYDi =
b(1-t)Yi-1
ADi =
Ci + Gi + IMi
Yi = ADi
Gi
IMi =
m Yi-1
(b(1 t ) m ) Y0 =
(b(1 t ) m) G
(1 t ) Y0
b(1 t ) Y0
m Y0
(b(1 t ) m) Y0
(1 t ) Y1
b(1 t ) Y1
m Y1
(b(1 t ) m) Y1
(1 t ) Y2
b(1 t ) Y2
m Y2
(b(1 t ) m) Y2
(b(1 t ) m) Y2 =
(b(1 t ) m) 3G
(1 t ) Y3
b(1 t ) Y3
m Y3
(b(1 t ) m) Y3
(b(1 t ) m) Y3 =
(b(1 t ) m) 4G
(1 t ) Y4
b(1 t ) Y4
m Y4
(b(1 t ) m) Y4
(b(1 t ) m) Y4 =
(b(1 t ) m) 5G
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
(b(1 t ) m) Y1 =
(b(1 t ) m) 2G
.
.
.
8.3, , n
Yn = (b(1 t ) m )n G.
15
. &
0 < (b(1 t ) m ) < 1,
n . ,
. ,
(b(1 t ) m )n 0
n Yn 0 n .
.
. ,
.
, Yi, (8.4).1
, ,
.
( 8.4: 0),
.
: AD(Y), , , , . .
, ,
.
8.6. ,
,
. ,
, . ,
2 1 8.4.
(8.4), G b, t m.
(7.1).
8.6.
AD = C + I + G + X IM = AS = Y
YD
, G
. , , t, , b,
, . ,
m, , -
16 .
& 8
.
.
8.2. G
8.1, G = 1, G
= 21, G+G = 22.
2 ( [8.2]),
1
1
1
=
=
=2
1 b(1 t ) + m 1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1 0,5
(8.4)
2*G = 2*1 = 2.
. 8.3.
( ), 0 1. 7.3. , 0 1.
,
. , 0 ADA0
G+G = 22 (=21+1) G = 21 .
G =1
AD
0: G+G = 22
ADA0 = 67 + 15 + 22 + 16 19
= 101 > YE = 100
1 1:
50+1
AD
0:
YB0 = AD0 = 101
AD
G = 1
50
:
CE = 67. I = 15. G = 21. X = 16. IME = 19
ADE = 67 + 15 + 21 + 16 19 = 100 = YE
45
100
102
Y0 = 1
Y
,
YE = 2
17
. &
8.4 .
YDi =
(1-t)Yi-1
Ci =
bYDi =
b(1-t)Yi-1
IMi =
m Yi-1
Gi
ADi =
Ci + Gi +
IMi
Yi = ADi
(1-0,25)*1
= 0,75
0,8*(1 0,25)
*1 =0,6
0,1*1 = 0,1
[0,8*(1 0,25)
0,1]*1 = 0,5
[0,8*(1 0,25)
0,1]*1 = 0,5
(1 0,25)*0,5
= 0,375
0,8*(1 0,25)
*0,5 = 0,3
0,1*0,5 =
0,05
(1 0,25)*
0,25 = 0,1875
0,8*(1 0,25)
*0,25 = 0,15
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
[0,8*(1 0,25)
[0,8*(1 0,25)
0,1]*0,5 = [0,8*(1
0,1]*0,5 = 0,25
0,25) 0,1]2*1= 0,25
.
.
.
.
.
.
(
):
(7.5)
(7.4)
(7.3)
(7.7)
(7.10)
(7.2)
(7.9)
(7.12)
1 (G = 1).
, .
. , .
18 .
& 8
. 8.5 , INT,
. , ,
AD 8.2.
, AD .
, , 7.
, (8.4).
AD = AD(Y).
8.5.
&
YE
AD
G G > 0
1
G > 0
1 b(1 t ) + m
~
~
C C > 0
EYD
UNC
W
~
1
C > 0
1 b(1 t ) + m
TR TR > 0
b
TR > 0
1 b(1 t ) + m
I I > 0
i
MPK
INVx
1
I > 0
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
X > 0
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
~
M < 0
1 b(1 t ) + m
X > 0
Yf
R
~
~
M M > 0
R
t t > 0
(1 b(1 t ) + m )2
t < 0
AD.
:
~
~
1. G , C , TR, I , X , M , t
.
2. t
(8.1) t.
8.5
,
.
~
~
, C , TR, , M
G. , TR, .
, .
19
. &
, , ,
, .
~
C .
, EYD , , UNC , , W , : , , ,
7.3, C, IM, TA, AD, AS YD, SG, SP,
NX CA. ,
MPK, i INVx.
. 8.5.
: , TR ,
, t .
~
~
, C , C , , ,
AD(). ,
~
~
M M .
G. 8.6,
G
C
~
C
~
M
TR :
AD() bTR. 8.5 b
.
, t t t > t,
AD b( 1 t ) m b( 1 t ) m. 8.6
.
8.7.
AD,
AD
AD(Y ) = (b(1 t ) m )Y
~
~
+ C + bTR + bINT + I + G + X M
AD
AD
AD: b(1 t) m
t t > t
AD
E
AD(Y ) = (b(1 t) m )Y
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
I +G+ X M
~
~
+ C + bTR + bINT + I + G + X M
AD: b(1 t) m
45
20 .
Y
,
& 8
. ,
. , .
TR,
( [7.4]):
YD = TR.
, YE,
0<
b
1
<
1 b(1 t ) + m
1 b(1 t ) + m
144244
3
144244
3
,
. , (7.4),
YDE = b( 1 t )YE + TR + INT.
, ,
.
8.3. TR t
8.1, , ADE = YE = 100,
YE = 100
TAE = 25
YDE = 80
CE = 67
I = 15
G = 21
X = 16
IME = 19
21
. &
YDE = (1 t)YE + TR + INT = ( 1 0,25)*100+3+3 = 81
, , 0,8:
AD E = CE + I + G + X IME = 63 + 15 + 21 + 16 19 = 96
, , : YE = 100 > 96 = ADE.
8.1. AD
, x, y z:
y = 0,5 x + z
, .
, ,
.
,
: . ,
, .
z
= 1 z = 2.
z = 1 y = 0,5 x + 1
z = 2 y = 0,5 x + 2
, x = 2. z =1 y 0,5*2+1 = 2, z =2 0,5*2+2 = 3.
, z y = y(x).
/
7
6
y = 0,5 x + z
5
z=2
z=1
3
2
1
2
(7.1).
22 .
& 8
9
9
9
9
AD(Y) y(x)
Yx
b(1 t ) m 0,5
~
~
z C + bTR + bINT + I + G M
, , ~
~
C + bTR + bINT + I + G M AD.
, .
8.6
.
.
8.6 .
8.6. &
~
G
t
TR
I
C
i
EYD
MPK
UNC
INVx
W
X
Yf
~
M
R
AS, AD
YD, C
TA
IM
NX, CA
SP
SG
. AD(Y)
:
1. : SP + SG = I + CA.
2. , AD .
8.4
, : ,
. (8.3) 8.2 8.4. , ,
, .
, , .
(8.2) 8.2 8.4.
23
. &
. , 7.2 7.4,
, . , ,
.
, 8.7
8.8 .
7.8, 7.9. ,
.
8.8.
YD
~
C
EYD
UNC
i
,
, ,
.
:
. : , , .
, 7.4, : .
, , , . ,
( 7.3 b
).
,
, .
, , . , ,
, , ( - , 4.4).
24 .
& 8
8.9.
MPK
INVx
.
:
. : , , .
7.4, , , .
,
. ,
.
.
. , , , .
,
. , ,
.
,
.
6 .
, ,
~
, , C . , .
,
, ,
~
M .
25
. &
, . ,
8.3.
, 8.10 , .
8.10.
~
C ;
G,t,TR;
X;
~
M ;
, .
8.1,
. 8.10,
;
;
.
, . , , 7.4, .
26 .
& 8
.
. W .
, EYD UNC .
, , , Gf ,
: , , , Yf .
:
Gf Yf
, 6 8.7.
8.7. 6
,
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
AD 8.1.
8.5 8.2.
, , AD 45.
. , ,
7.3.
.
: , 6 .
6.3 6.4 .
8.5
Shock
Subsidies
Equilibrium
Multiplier
Excess Demand
Excess Supply
8.6
1.
,
,
.
2.
, ,
.
3.
(8.4) 7.3,
8.6.
27
. &
4.
, , ,
SG, , CA, :
, G , , ,
, .
5.
( ).
, ,
;
6.
.
. , .
.
7.
( ). , ,
: .
.
8.
. , ,
, (pegged) . , , . , , .
; , , ;
, ,
.
9.
. 1990,
Maastricht , . . .
,
Maastricht.
10. 30 2008,
, Economist
, , ,
.
,
.
. , ,
.
28 .
& 8
, .................................................................................... 1
8.1 ............................................................................................................................... 2
8.2 ........................................................................................................... 3
8.3 .............................................................................. 11
8.4 ................................................................... 23
8.5 ....................................................................... 27
8.6 ............................................................................................................................. 27
, .................................................................................... 1
8.1 ............................................................................................................................... 2
8.2 ........................................................................................................... 3
. ......................................................................................................................3
. ...................................................................................3
8.1. ....................................................... 4
8.1. ......................... 5
. ......................................................................................................................................6
8.2. & ............................................. 7
8.3. .................................................................................... 7
8.1. & ....................................... 8
8.3 .............................................................................. 11
8.4. ................................................ 10
. ......................................................................................... 11
8.2. G .................................................. 13
8.5. ........................................................... 14
8.3. G .................................................. 15
8.6. ........................ 16
8.2. G ........................................... 17
. .............................................................. 18
8.5. ...................................................................... 19
8.7. ............................................ 20
8.3. TR t ........................ 21
8.1. AD ................................................ 22
8.6. & ...................... 23
8.4 ................................................................... 23
8.8. .................................... 24
8.9. .................................................... 25
6 . ..................................................... 25
8.10. ......................................................... 26
8.7. 6 ................................... 27
8.5 ....................................................................... 27
8.6 ............................................................................................................................. 27
29
& 9
IS/LM
&
As the model became more dominant theoretically, it lost its Keynesian character
with respect to practical policy issues. Friends and foes of Keynes alike used it to
promote or confute Keynesian policy prescriptions. Monetarist conclusions and
Keynesian conclusions were presented as special cases of the more general IS/LM
framework.
However, to present-day macroeconomic theory the IS/LM model is an obsolete instrument, defective for its lack of microfoundations and neglect of expectations.
On the other hand, because no other model has proved so pedagogically adaptable, the IS/LM model remains the cornerstone of undergraduate textbooks. In
business and government and other non-academic environments, the IS/LM has
also survived. Partly, this is because it was so fully developed for practical and
econometric applications
What we see, then, might be characterized as the rise, fall, and strange persistence and uncertain future of the IS/LM model.
,
.
.
IS/LM.
, , IS/LM
,
.
,
, IS/LM
. ,
- , IS/LM .
, , , , ,
IS/LM.
2003 HOPE Conference.
The IS/LM Model: Its Rise, Fall, and Strange Persistence, Duke.
, ,
IS/LM.
Greekletter economics .
( Greek letter economics
.) , .
,
: .
:
,
. &
. Greek letter
economics .
9.1
IS/LM John Hicks 1937,
Keynes. ,
,
IS/LM
. ,
,
...
1937 ,
,
.
, IS/LM, , .
, . , -
, ,
,
, .
, . ,
.
, IS/LM .
, 7 8,
: -
,
. ,
. ,
3
17.
, IS/LM,
, ,
.
, ,
.
,
. , ,
, ,
.
,
. ,
,
,
, , ,
...
.
, .
, ,
. ,
.
& .
.
,
.
& 9
,
, , ,
. , , .
, ,
,
.
.
,
.
(fault lines) ,
.
;
( 7.2),
IS/LM. ,
, .
9.2 &
.
.
7.3.
, , ,
(7.6), ,
(7.6).
~ +
I = I MPK , INVx di
(d>0)
(7.6)
.
.
8.1 .
, 7.4,
, 9.1.
9.1 (7.6), , ,
.
9.1.
, () ()
~
I
MPK
INVx
MPK
INVx
&
.
&
.
. &
. :
9.2.
. : , .
,
& 9.2,
.
.
&
.
~
~
~
Y = AS = AD = (b(1 t ) m )Y + (C + bTR + bINT + I di + X M )
123 1
424
3
123
.
.
. ( 7.6 )
1444444444424444444444
3
( 7.12) ( 7.11)
( 7.1 )
,
YA =
1
~
~
~
C + bTR + bINT + I di A + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
(9.1)
, :
, YA iA.
&
.
Y i. .
,
() .
.
,
: Y i.
, ,
,
, YE i. , 7.3,
,
.
, ,
. , , Y,
, i.
Y i, ,
.
, ,
, : ,
, iA, , ,
(9.1). , (YA, iA)
.
, .
& 9
YA =
1
~
~
~
C + bTR + bINT + I di A + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
, .
YA =
~
1
~
~
C + bTR + bINT + I di A + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
, &
. ,
(Y, i)
:
(9.1).
,
(9.1) .
Y =
d
1
i =
I
1 b(1 t ) + m
1 b(1 t ) + m
(9.1)
i
1 b(1 t ) + m
=
<0
Y
d
, b,
d m,
(9.1)
,
i,
, b, d m,
t. 8.5.
. ,
.
9.2. 9.2
8.
b, t, m d,
iA YA
9.2. , iA YA
, ,
& . ,
.
iB, YB:
.
, ,
IS, (Y, IS:
i) & .1
,
=
,
I = S.
. &
9.2. IS
AD
AD
0
0
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
~
I diB + G + X M
AD
I = di > 0
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
~
I di A + G + X M
.
:
,
iA.
:
(YA, iA).
.
45
Y
,
iB < iA.
iA
i = iB i A < 0
iB
Y =
1
I > 0
1 b(1 t ) + m
IS
B
Y
,
IS ,
= , = S. X = IM = NFI
= 0 , , CA = 0. , S = I + CA,
, S =
I.
9.1. IS
8.1.
~
. I = 20 d = 1, (7.6)
~
I = I di = 20 1 * i
b = 0,8
~
C =3
t = 0,25
m = 0,1
TR = 2
INT = 3
d=1
~
I = 20
G = 21
X = 16
~
M =9
NFI = 0
& 9
(9.1)
YA =
=
~
~
~
1
C + bTR + bINT + I di A + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
(3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 + 20 1* i A + 21 + 16 9)
1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1
iA = 5%,
YA =
=
~
~
~
1
C + bTR + bINT + I di A + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
(3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 + 20 1* 5 + 21 + 16 9) = 2 * 50 = 100
1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1
7.3,
:
= t*Y = 0,25*100 = 25
(7.5)
D = Y TA + TR + INT = 100 25 + 2 + 3 = 80
~
C A = C + bYDA = 3 + 0,8*80 = 67
(7.4)
(7.2)
SP,A = YDA CA = 80 67 = 13
(7.3)
(7.7)
IM A
(7.6)
~
= M + mY A = 9 + 0,1*100 = 19
(7.9)
(7.10)
DA = CA + IA + G + X IMA = 67 + 15 + 21 + 16 19 = 100
(7.1)
ASA = YA = 100
(7.12)
i = 3%.
YB =
=
~
~
~
1
C + bTR + bINT + I di B + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
(3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 + 20 1* 3 + 21 + 16 9) = 2 * 52 = 104
1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1
7.3,
( )
= t*Y = 0,25*104 = 26
(7.5)
D = Y TA + TR + INT = 104 26 + 2 + 3 = 83
~
C B = C + bYDB = 3 + 0,8*83 = 69,4
(7.4)
(7.3)
(7.7)
(7.2)
(7.6)
~
IM B = M + mYB = 9 + 0,1*104 = 19,4
(7.9)
(7.10)
(7.12)
. &
(7.6) i = iB iA
= 3% 5% = 2% 8.5. .
.
.
IS
AD
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
~
I diB + G + X M
= 3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 +
20 1 * 3 + 21 + 16 9
= 52
AD
I = di
AD
= 1 * (2)
=2>0
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
~
I di A + G + X M
= 3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 +
20 1 * 5 + 21 + 16 9
= 50
45
100
iA= 5%
104
CA = 67
IA = 15
IMA = 19
i = i B i A
= 3% 5 %
= 2% < 0
iB= 3%
1
Y =
I
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
=
2=4>0
1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1
100
CB = 69,4
IB = 17
IMB = 19,4
IS
104
Y
,
IS, ,
. ,
, :
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9 .
(7.2), (7.6) (7.9).
& 9
IS, (9.1),
.
.
, &
. 8.5,
. 8.5 G,
.
i < 0.
I=-di>0
d
AD = C + I + G + X IM = AS = Y
YD
IS, :
, > D, ,
AD > Y. , 0 9.2,
.
ADA = ASA, 0
. , ,
, . 9.1.
M .
AD ,
IS.
,
AD ( ) IS ,
. , 8.1
AD .
, ,
, G .
, . ,
, IS .
, , IS, (YA, iA).
9.3.
(Y, AD).
,
IS: .
.
9.3.
, G
,
. , IS ,
. IS , IS.
,
&
.
. &
Y = Y A Y A =
1
G
1 b(1 t ) + m
. ,
9.3,
(, AD).
,
AD ( 8.5) , ,
. , . IS
, IS.
9.3. IS
AD
AD
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
~
I di A + G '+ X M
AD
G = G 'G > 0
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
~
I di A + G + X M
45
Y
,
IS.
IS.
:
,
(YA,
iA).
:
G
G = G + G
:
iA, G
: YA >
YA.
:
, ,
(YA, iA).
A
1
Y =
G > 0
1 b(1 t ) + m
IS
IS
A
Y
,
.
, , (YA, iA), &
( ):
10 .
& 9
ADA = CA + IA + (G+G) + X IMA = ADA + G > ADA = ASA = YA
, , ,
: .
Y =
1
G
1 b(1 t ) + m
, .
IS.
IS
:
, . ,
.
8.5 ,
9.1 .
9.1. IS
G G > 0
1
G
1 b(1 t ) + m
~
~
C C > 0
EYD
UNC
W
~
1
C
1 b(1 t ) + m
TR TR > 0
b
TR
1 b(1 t ) + m
I I > 0
MPK
INVx
1
I
1 b(1 t ) + m
X > 0
Yf
R
1
X
1 b(1 t ) + m
~
~
M M > 0
R
1
~
M
1 b(1 t ) + m
t t > 0
(1 b(1 t ) + m)2
IS:
,
.
.
:
1.
, IS
.
2. t,
(9.1) t. , ,
IS, .
11
. &
9.2. IS
, IS,
G = 21 G+G = 21+1 = 22.
, 9.3
.
.
IS
1
1
G =
*1 = 2
1 b(1 t ) + m
1 0,8 * (1 0,25) + 0,1
YA = + = 100 + 2 = 102
YA (9.1).
9.3
(
):
(7.5)
(7.4)
(7.3)
(7.7)
(7.6)
~
IM A = M + mY A = 9 + 0,1*102 = 19,2
(7.9)
(7.10)
(7.1)
ASA = YA = 102
(7.12)
(7.2)
9.3
:
.
, .
, Y, , i.
+
= L , = L ( ), ()
, ,
. , , ,
: ,
, . , ,
. ,
, ,
.
12 .
& 9
.
, , ,
. ,
. .
, , .
, (9.2).
& ,
=
.
+
Md
= L Y , i = kY hi
P
(k>0, h>0)
(9.2)
(9.2), M d ,
, d / P ,
.
,
. , ,
.
, 3.000 . ,
10 , 30 .
100
, : .
k h
. ,
kY.
Md
= kY
P
k h
(9.2)
, i
hi.
Md
= hi
(9.2)
P
& , .
k h .
9.1.
Markuss Knell Helmut Stix, Three Decades of Money Demand Studies.
Some Differences and Remarkable Similarities (Working Paper 88, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, 2004), 900 , 196
1972 2002.
(9.2).
. ,
,
-0,30. 1%
, 1%
0,3%.
13
. &
,
,
. ,
= =
,
.
,
, , Y, ,
,
.
9.3.
8, 4/.., ..
, 10 ...
(4/..*10..) / 8 = 5.
,
.
,
( 5.2 ),
M d V = PY
Md 1
= Y
P
V
V , PY
, .
, :
. ,
.
,
. ,
,
V = V(i) V/I > 0.
(9.2). (9.2), ,
.
9.2. ;
, ,
, , ,
(phone banking) (e-banking),
, .
, ,
.
14 .
& 9
, 1960 2000
/
2
M1
1,5
M2
M3
0,5
0
1960:1
1970:1
1980:1
1990:1
,
. , M1, M2
M3, .
, 1 1,5
6 1960, 1 1998,
.
2 3 .
, (instability)
,
.
9.3 .
, , M d , ,
, P, , M, .
, M,
.
, 11 12.
.
,
= ,
(9.3).
(Y, i)
.
M Md
=
= kY A hi A
P
P
(9.3)
. &
,
(Y, i). k / h.
15
. &
, ,
( / P) = kY hi.
,
: (/P) = 0. ,
(/P) = 0 kY hi = 0 i /Y = k / h.
IS, LM
, k h.
. , ,
. 9.4.
, (YA, iA), (9.3).
.
, (Y, iA), Y =
YB ,
: M d / P = kY,
.
9.4.
LM
LM:
Liquidity
Money,
LM
B
Md
= hi < 0
12P3
Md
Md
+
=0
12P3 12P3
A
Md
= kY > 0
12P3
.,
kY+(-hi)=0.
,
LM
i/Y = k / h.
Y
,
,
. i
, hi,
, kY.
,
kY = hi
. ,
,
.
kY = hi LM
i / Y = k / h.
9.4. LM
k = 0,25, h = 0,5 M / P = 20. (9.3) :
16 .
& 9
9 = 90: 20 = 0,25*90 0,5*iA iA = 5
9 = 100: 20 = 0,25*100 0,5*iB iB = 10.
LM
LM
10%
Md
= hi = 0,5 * 5 = 2,5
12P3
5%
A
Md
= kY = 0,25 * 10 = 2,5
12P3
90
100
Y
,
LM
, k, , h.
, k = 0,3 h = 0,4,
.
, Y = YB , k
,
( [9.2])
. LM. ,
, k i ( i / )
, Y = YB , k
, h
( [9.2])
. LM.
9.3.
, , h
LM . , LM .
, V.
M
1
= kY = Y
P
V
k =
1
V
17
. &
, Quantity Theory of Money, .
. ,
,
. 10.7 .
,
.
, , :
. , ,
;
.
,
%
1
%M % P = % + %Y
V
V, = . ,
, ,
.
,
%M = + %Y
.
2,5% - 3,0%, ,
5% - 6%, . ,
10%,
, , 100%,
, %
%.
, --
. , % = 5% %M = 100%, = 95%
100% = %. %M = 1000%, = 995%
1000% = %M.
,
,
,
.
, %Y
= 4%, %M = 7%.
= 3% (= 7% 4%).
9.4. LM
LM
. LM, 9.4,
. ,
, / .
,
. ,
. ,
, .
, LM ,
,
.
M .
LM
, M/P, , M/P,
18 .
& 9
LM. IS (
8.1 AD ).
M P. , ,
.
,
, .
LM, (YA, iA).
:
M d / P| = kYA hiA = M/P.
M, M > ,
, ,
M / P > M / P = M d/P| = kYA hiA.
, ,
,
.
9.5
Y = YA
kY = M / P = ( ) / P.
, . LM,
LM.
9.5. LM
LM
LM.
LM
M
P
LM.
A
M
P
= kY > 0
Y
,
, , YA,
. ,
, M / P = h(iA iA ).
LM.
, LM
.
9.5. LM
19
. &
9.4,
M / P = 1. , , LM,
(, iA) = (90, 5).
. ,
20+1 = 21, k hiA = 0,25*90 0,5*5 = 20.
5%, Y
, kY = 0,25*,
, 1. = 4. ,
1 = / P = k = 0,25* 1 = 0,25* = 4
To , . LM
.
LM
LM
5%
LM
A
1=
P
= kY = 0,25 * 4
A
90
94
Y
,
, ,
. , .
LM.
3%.
, , LM
, . , P
, .
9.4
.
. , YE iE,
,
: b, t, m, , ,
d (9.4) (9.5).
.
(9.1) (9.3).
, YE iE
7.3.
:
YE =
~
~ d M
~
C + bTR + bINT + G + I + X M +
h P
(1 b(1 t ) + m ) + d k
h
1
20 .
(9.4)
& 9
iE =
1M
1
+
k
h P (
1 b(1 t ) + m ) + d
h
~
~ d M
~
C + bTR + bINT + G + I + X M +
(9.5)
h P
. 9.6,
IS LM. ,
(YE, iE), .
9.6.
M
LM
P
iE
IS LM
.
.
+
+ +
C~ EYD, UNC ,W . I~ MPK , INVx .
IS
+
+
~
G , t , TR . X Y f , R . M R .
IS/LM, 9.6 IS
LM, ,
. , , UNC ,
~
C , , IS ,
.
9.6. IS/LM
&
b = 0,8
~
C =3
t = 0,25
m = 0,1
TR = 2
INT = 3
d=1
~
I = 20
G = 21
~
M =9
X = 16
NFI = 0
k = 0,25
h = 0,5
M/P = 22,5
~
~
~
1
C + bTR + bINT + I di E + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
(3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 + 20 1* i E + 21 + 16 9)
=
1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1
= 2(55 1* i E ) = 110 2i E
YE =
21
. &
, (9.3)
M
= kYE hi E 22,5 = 0,25Y E 0,5i E
P
= 100 iE = 5%.
7.3
.
= t*Y = 0,25*100 = 25
(7.5)
D = Y TA + TR + INT = 100 25 + 2 + 3 = 80
~
C E = C + bYDE = 3 + 0,8*80 = 67
(7.4)
(7.2)
SP, = YD C = 80 67 = 13
(7.3)
(7.7)
(7.6)
~
IM E = M + mYE = 9 + 0,1*100 = 19
(7.9)
(7.10)
DE = CE + IE + G + X IME = 67 + 15 + 21 + 16 19 = 100
(7.1)
(7.12)
9.7,
8.4. o 1 , ,
( [9.2]).
2 3
.
9.7 , ,
.
8.4,
C, I,
G X, , .
.
22 .
& 9
9.7.
TR
YD
MPK
/ t
INVx
Yf
EYD
UNC
i
Md / P
M / P
1
,
, ,
. :
. : , .
:
1. o 1 , , (
[9.2]).
2. 2 3 .
3. , .
23
. &
9.5
IS
LM
24 .
Money Demand
Nominal
Real
Transactions Demand for Money
IS Curve
LM Curve
Opportunity Cost of Money
Money Quantity
Quantity Theory of Money
Money Supply
Nominal
Real
Money Velocity
Md
Md / P
M
M/P
V
& 10
10
IS/LM (B)
. , ,
.
William McDonough,
( 1993 2003).
. McDonough,
,
.
,
,
.
,
. . McDonough,
,
- ,
,
. , , ,
,
. IS/LM.
10.1
.
, ,
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,
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,
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.
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:
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. , ,
,
.
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,
. , Maastricht
- .
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.
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.
5.3 Exchange-Rate-based Stabilization Programs.
, ,
.
. . ,
.
.
.
, ,
: ,
.
,
.
.
, .
, ,
. .
, ,
. The sky is the limit.
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(9.4) (9.5), 9.6,
IS/LM . , ,
,
.
,
10.1. 8,
. ,
,
.
& 10
10.1. 6
IS/LM
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
: , .
:
LM, &
IS.
, IS LM.
, iE.
,
7.3.
.
, 10.2
.
10.2. IS/LM
EYD,
UNC,
MPK
.
. , UNC MPK .
~
9 EYD UNC C
( [7.2 ])
9 MPK ( [7.6]).
.
.
()
~
C ( [7.2 ]), .
NFI (=0),
TR, INT
. ,
.
INVx
. ,
. .
I ( [7.6]).
.
t, TR.
, .
X, R
Mundell-Fleming.
, R, ( [7.8])
( [7.9]).
~
M
.
Yf
.
Mundell-Fleming .
( [7.8]).
. &
.
M , Y, i
, .
.
: :
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10.2 8
:
, , ,
i , . ,
. , , ,
, .
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.
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6.1.
. LM, , LM.
6.2. ,
& .
.
10.1.
,
& 10
i
LM
iE
LM
iE
IS
E
Y
,
6.3. ,
,
.
. 10.3.
. &
10.3.
10.1 (9.4)
10.1 (9.5)
AS
AS = Y
(7.12)
AD
, AD = AS
(7.11)
YD
(7.4)
YD = (1 t )Y +TR + INT
~
C = C + bYD
TA
IM
NX, CA
TA = tY
~
I = I di
~
IM = M + mY
(7.2)
(7.5)
(7.6a)
(7.9)
NX = X IM
CA = NX + NFI
(7.10)
SP = YD C
(7.2) (7.4)
SP
0 < b < 1,
. ,
.
SG
S G = tY G TR INT
(7.7)
: ,
, M ,
.
6.4. .
Y i.
. , .
, ,
( ).
:
M Md
=
P
P
kYE hi E
14243
& : ADE = C E + I E + G + X IM E = AS E = YE
14444244443
&
M > M,
: , :
M Md
M > M
>
=
= kYE hi E
P
P
P
144444424444443
& 10
, Y ,
, i , .
, .
, :
,
. , , . ,
i
, . ,
, ,
& : .
.
. ,
i AD AS Y
, ,
,
( [9.2]),
Y i .
i ,
(9.4) (9.5).
YE =
i E =
~
~
~ d M
C + bTR + bINT + G + I + X M +
k
h P
((1 b(1 t ) + m ) + d
h
1
1M
+
h P
~
~
~ d M
C + bTR + bINT + G + I + X M +
h P
(1 b(1 t ) + m ) k + d
h
1
10.1.
9.6, = 22,5
= 24,5.
()
& , (9.1)
YE =
=
~
~
~
1
C + bTR + bINT + I diE + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
(3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 + 20 1* iE + 21 + 16 9)
1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1
= 104 iE = 3%.
7.3
(
).
= t*Y = 0,25*104 = 26
(7.5)
D = Y TA + TR + INT = 104 26 + 2 + 3 = 83
(7.4)
. &
~
C E = C + bYDE = 3 + 0,8*83 = 69,4
(7.2)
(7.3)
(7.7)
(7.6)
~
IM E = M + mYE = 9 + 0,1*104 = 19,4
(7.9)
(7.10)
(7.1)
ASE = YE = 104
(7.12)
, , 2
.
,
Md
= kYE = 0,25 * (104 100) = +1
P
Md
= kiE = 0,5 * (3% 5%) = +1
P
,
.
,
,
,
, .
10.2.
10.2.
M M M d
>
=
P
P
P
M M >
= kYE hiE
AD = C + I + G + X IM = AS = Y
YD
&
,
LM. , IS/LM
, ,
.
& 10
10.1. &
10.2
:
, .
, , . ,
.
1990 ( 5.13
, 1999 2005), , ,
.
(credit channel) .
(7 2002) Lufthansa:
, .
, , ,
2000. 1.3
, .
, .
INVx /
MPK ,
. , ,
.
, ,
, .
.
, ,
,
.
, ,
: ,
, ,
,
, ,
.
,
,
, . ,
.
, , , ,
(too little, too late). ()
, () ,
.
,
: ,
, , . ,
.
10.2.
, Econometric
Models of the Euro-area Central Banks (edited by Gabriel Fagn and Julian Morgan, Edward Elgar
Publishing Limited, 2005), ,
1%, 0,2%
. &
, , 0,4-0,5%,
.
, ,
, ,
i.
,
,
:
, , ,
, , .
, , .
. 2
14 17,
.
, 10.5 ,
,
.
, ,
. 10.1.
, , (
10.3) ( 5.4),
.
, , 10.3
.
10.3.
: , ,
.
, .
.
,
,
, : .
.
1990, 5.13 ,
1999 2005.
.
M d / P = 0,5Y 10i.
LM, M/P = 100
M/P = 150.
i = 0
M / P = M d / P = 0,5Y 10i . ,
.
, M/P = 100, 200. M/P = 150,
300.
,
.
i = 0, LM.
10
& 10
M/P=100
10
7,5
M/P=150
5
2,5
E
0
IS
-2,5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Y
,
,
, .
100 150
.
, .
.
10.4.
11
. &
Eurozone rates cut by a quarter-point to 2.5%
Eurozone interest rates on Thursday matched their lowest level since the European Central Bank
came into being after the banks governing council eased monetary policy in response to stuttering
growth in the 12-nation block.
This outcome will disappoint the narrow majority who had been looking for a 50 basis point reduction, and will leave the ECB open to criticism that it is not loosening policy sufficiently aggressively, said James Knightley at ING Financial Markets.
Financial Times, 6 2003.
.
. , , .
,
, G , 10.3.
6.1.
. IS, ,
IS.
6.2. ,
&
.
.
10.3.
,
LM
iE
iE
E
1
G
1 b(1 t ) + m
IS
IS
E
Y
,
6.3. ,
,
.
. 10.4.
12
& 10
10.4.
10.3 (9.4)
10.3 (9.5)
AS
AS = Y
(7.12)
AD
, AD = AS
(7.11)
YD
(7.4)
YD = (1 t )Y +TR + INT
~
C = C + bYD
TA
IM
NX, CA
SP
TA = tY
~
I = I di
~
IM = M + mY
(7.5)
(7.6)
(7.9)
NX = X IM
CA = NX + NFI
(7.10)
SP = YD C
(7.2) (7.4)
0 < b < 1,
, .
S G = tY G TR INT
SG
(7.2)
(7.7)
, .
S P + S G ? = 1
I 4+
.
2CA
43
: ,
, G ,
.
6.4. .
, Y
i.
.
, ,
.
M Md
=
P
P
kYE hi E
14243
& : ADE = C E + I E + G + X IM E = AS E = YE
14444244443
&
,
& : .
13
. &
ADE = C E + I E + (G + G ) + X IM E = ADE + G > ADE = AS E = YE
, Y .
,
&
//
, , ,
, .
, ,
Y i .
,
Md
P i
M
:
, . ,
, , , ,
, ..
i ,
(9.4) (9.5).
YE =
i E =
~
~ d M
~
C + bTR + bINT + G + I + X M +
k
h P
(1 b(1 t ) + m ) + d
h
1M
+
h P
~
~ d M
~
C + bTR + bINT + G + I + X M +
h P
(1 b(1 t ) + m ) k + d
h
1
10.2. G
9.6, G = 2, G
G+G = 21+2 = 23.
()
& , (9.1)
~
~
~
1
YE =
C + bTR + bINT + I di E + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
(3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 + 20 1* i E + 23 + 16 9)
1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1
= 2(57 1* i E ) = 114 2i E
, (9.3)
M
= kYE hi E 22,5 = 0,25YE 0,5i E
P
= 102 iE = 6%,
14
& 10
7.3
(
).
(7.5)
(7.4)
(7.2)
(7.3)
(7.7)
(7.6)
~
IM E = M + mYE = 9 + 0,1*102 = 19,2
(7.9)
(7.10)
(7.1)
ASE = YE = 102
(7.12)
, ,
10.3 .
, = 104. . ,
.
,
,
,
, G , .
10.4.
10.4.
&
C
YD
AD = C + I + G + X IM = AS = Y
d
Md
= kYE hiE
P
:
10.5. ,
/
Keynes,
.
, ,
, , 5 ,
2.400 Keynes.
15
. &
,
, , , , ,
.
, ,
.
,
.
. ,
, , 19,
,
.
. ,
,
.
, , ,
14 20.
10.6.
,
/ .
Keynes revisited
This week, with little ceremony, President George W. Bush quietly brought to a close more
- than a decade of US economic policy orthodoxy. By signalling his support for lower taxes and
higher public spending in the next year that could reach as high as $130bn 1.3 percent of gross
domestic product he threw the US administrations weight behind the proposition that a temporary deficiency in aggregate demand should be met by a shift in government finances from surplus
to deficit.
This argument, the simplest distillation of the teachings of John Maynard Keynes, has been
- out of favour in much of the industrialized world for 10 years or more. But with the worlds three
largest economies the US, Japan and Germany all in recession or close to it, the conventional
wisdom is up for re-assessment. At Saturdays gathering in Washington of finance ministers and
central bankers from the Group of Seven leading industrial nations, the burden of expectations will
fall on governments to play their part in averting global recession by cutting taxes and boosting
.
public spending.
Financial Times, 6 2001.
,
, ,
.
2000 ( 1.3).
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. ,
2009 ???, ??? . , ???? ****.
: *****
.
16
& 10
,
, . 1930,
,
,
13.6
6.8 1930.
. 1970,
( 13.6),
. ,
1992,
. 16.3 George Soros
1992.
10.7.
10.3, b, d, t m,
G LM.
k/h. LM .
, b, t, m d G
IS. , LM
.
,
, ,
.
.
, LM,
.
, , h = 0, LM
, .
,
.
( 9.3).
(Crowding Out)
LM
YE =
iE
1
MV
P
IS
IS
Y
,
= CE + IE + G + X - IME
= CE + IE + G + X - IME
,
IE + G = IE + G IE IE = G G (IE IE ) = G G
17
. &
, . ,
.
.
,
, .
, , .
.
,
, ,
.
,
:
iE.
10.5.
10.5.
&
LM
G
M
2
LM
iE
IS
IS
E
Y
,
, , YE
, YE . ,
1
Y = YE Y =
G
1 b(1 t ) + m
8.
.
10.8.
Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks
1% 0,6% ()
1,3% () . ,
0,6% () 1,4% (),
18
& 10
. , 0,7%
1,0% .
. ,
, 10.3 10.5,
.
,
.
,
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,
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, ,
10.3, ,
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1
,
> 1.
1 b(1 t ) + m
,
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, , ,
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: ,
.
10.9.
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19
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E1
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LM
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IS
E2
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IS
E
12
Y
,
10.5,
.
20
& 10
10.5.
AS, AD
, Y12
YD, C
, Y12
TA
, Y12
IM
, Y12
NX, CA
SP
, YD C
SG
.
.
, , ,
,
. ,
.
10.4
10.6
& . 10.3 10.4,
Y i ,
7.3.
, .
, 10.6.
IS/LM .
21
. &
10.6. &
~
~
G
t
TR
C
I
EYD
MPK
UNC
INVx
~
M
R
X
Yf
AS, AD
YD, C
TA
IM
NX, CA
SP
SG
. IS
:
1.
: SP + SG = I + CA.
2. ,
IS
.
10.6
IS/LM. 10.7
.
10.7.
IS
~
t , M
~
G , TR , C
~
I , X
iE
LM
iE
IS
IS
E
IS
Y
,
22
& 10
, ,
.
.
- . ,
EYD ,
, , Y ,
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~
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C
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-
& .
, ,
.
-
,
14 15.
. , ,
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7,
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.
10.10. 2001
World Trade Center
, 11 2001, George Bush
.
, ,
3.000 ,
.
, ,
.
,
,
. , , /
.
10.11.
/
.
, , .
,
9 , ,
9 ,
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23
. &
9
9 .
9 , ,
9
9
9
9 , ,
9 (limits to production)
9
9
9 .
(Consumer confidence indicator) Eurostat,
,
Economic Sentiment Index. (
) Industrial (40%), Services (30%), Consumer (20%), Construction (5%)
Retail trade (5%) confidence indicators.
, , 110,000
33,000 . The Joint Harmonized EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys User Guide,
Eurostat.
, Michigan,
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index,
.
, .
,
, . ,
~
W C C AD
.
, ,
~
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, .
10.12.
.
,
, , , ,
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( 6.4 ).
10.12. -
,
, - :
,
. .
- .
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.
24
& 10
NASDAQ
,
1.13 .
. ()
~
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~
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.
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2.5 -.
,
.
10.13.
,
Financial Times 11 1993. , ,
.
25
. &
The Clinton administration would work with its trading partners particularly Japan to expand
exports.
, , - ,
, (locomotive)
. ,
,
/ .
.
10.14.
US urges Tokyo to spur demand to ease Asia crisis
Financial Times, 26 1998.
:
. , R , , X ,
~
, M , ,
, , .
.
, :
( [7.9]).
, ,
, X
CA .
S P + S G = I +CA ? CA
14243
4
, . ,
.
CA = X IM ?
10.15.
,
. X, IM, NX CA.
,
CF.
Mundell-Fleming.
.
, .
26
& 10
.
1998
.
.
, ,
,
.
, Warnings in Tokyo of pain to come Banks forced to cut domestic
lending further, Financial Times, 12 1998.
10.5
.
IS/LM . ,
: ,
.
, , :
.
10.8
.
, , , ,
.
t0 , G ,
, M .
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.
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t0. t0,
.
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,
t t0 t0 .
10.8.
Y
,
t0
27
. &
10.16. Bloomberg
Bloomberg - .
, , , ,
,
. ,
,
Michigan.
,
/
, , ,
,
.
2006 -2,0% -1,5%
. , , 8:00 30
2006 -1,7%: ,
.
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,
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.
. 10.9.
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28
& 10
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.
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1990,
. , G
- EYD / UNC .
,
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,
.
13 17.
,
.
1980
. , G -
29
. &
EYD UNC ,
.
, .
, , .
(Credit Cycles).
. .
.
, .
7.4 7.8 7.9.
, ,
.
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,
.
.
. ,
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.
. 10.10,
9.7 8.8 8.9.
. ,
.
.
30
& 10
10.10.
YD
TR
MPK
/ t
INVx
Yf
EYD
UNC
i
,
, ,
1
. :
. : , .
: o 1 , ,
.
31
. &
.
, 8.9,
~
I ;
10.6
Money Demand
Nominal
Real
Md
Md / P
IS
IS Curve
LM
LM Curve
Money Quantity
Money Supply
Nominal
Real
Money Velocity
32
M
M/P
11
The simple rules by which central banks lived have crumbled. A messier, more
political future awaits
IN THE world that existed before the financial crisis, central bankers were triumphant. They had defeated inflation and tamed the business cycle. And they had developed a powerful intellectual consensus on how to do their job, summarised recently by David Blanchflower, a member of the Bank of Englands monetary policy
committee, as one tool, one target. The tool was the short-term interest rate, the
target was price stability.
This minimalist formula fitted the laissez-faire temper of the times. A growing
array of financial markets could price risk and allocate credit efficiently. Central
bankers had merely to calibrate their interest-rate tools and all other markets
would automatically adjust. Central banks still cared about financial stability and
full employment, but could argue these were best served by stabilising prices
without, if you please, interference from politicians.
The financial crisis has upended all that. The business cycle was supposedly
subdued, yet the world is in the deepest recession since the 1930s. Deflation has
become a more dangerous enemy than inflation; with interest rates in many countries at or close to zero, central banks have had to reach for other tools.
More fundamentally, the collapse of stable relationships in financial markets
has forced central banks to make judgments they once left to the private sector.
From lenders of last resort, they became lenders of first resort when banks stopped
trusting each other. They are, increasingly, arbiters of which types of borrowers
get credit. With the reputation of market discipline in tatters, central bankers will
get vast new supervisory powers. All this is dragging central banks back towards
political turf from which they had been distancing themselves for years.
(The monetary-policy maze The Economist, April 23, 2009)
, ,
2007 ( 1.3).
Economist
.
11.1
, , ,
. , , . ,
, , .
,
, , . ,
.
1.3
, .
.
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.
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10 :
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11.2
: . , ,
100% .
, . ,
, .
, , , .
.
. ,
. ,
: , , ...
, , , .
,
.
, :
. ,
. ,
- .
.
11.1.
11.1.
, ,
CU
D
cu =
CU
D
RE
re =
RE
D
.
9
.
9
.
9 .
9
.
=
+ ( )
M = CU + D
(11.1)
=
+
H = CU + RE
(11.2)
(11.1) .
11.1.
(11.1). , (
11.2), ( 5.2
):
.
: 1, 2, 3, ...
, ,
, .
. ,
, ,
.1
, Measurement of Monetary Aggregates Across Countries, by Yueh-Yun C. OBrien, Discussion Paper #2007-02, Finance and
Economics Discussion Series, Federal Reserve Board.
.
, N X I (Monetary Financial Institutions MFI). .
-
9
9
2
3
()
2
, ,
/ ,
/ . ,
, .3203/2004. .
1 (narrow money). , ,
,
.
M2 (intermediate) . M1, .
1, , , , , .
M3 (broad money).
2, MFIs, , (),
, ,
1.
,
: - , 7% 3.
3
3%
4%
8%
7%
18%
37%
23%
()
, ,
, .
re, ,
. .
. .
RE < D
RE
re =
<1
D
(11.3)
(11.1) (11.2) cu re
1.1,
M =
1 + cu
H
re + cu
(11.4)
re < 1, (11.4), ,
. mm
(money multplier).
mm =
1 + cu
>1
re + cu
(11.5)
,
=
*
, . . ,
| M |= mm | H |>| H |
(11.6)
(11.6) 11.5. ,
(11.6) ,
,
, (11.1).
(11.4)
. ,
cu, , re, .
. (policy rates). ,
, .
11.1.
11.1.
,
M=
1 + cu
H
re + cu
. .
11.3
re, ,
.
, .
, - .
, ,
. . , (
-).
, .
,
, ,
( - , 1.3
). .
.
. 11.2.
,
,
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11.2.
(RE)
(D)
&
()
, , R, .
, , .
. , , .
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, : ,
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. , , , .
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.
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.
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.
.
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,
.
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. , , : , .
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.
, , , ...
, , .
, ,
.
,
(11.7)
: . , , , .
= + ( ) +
= ( ) + +
(11.7)
-
= + ( ) +
(11.8)
11.3 :
.
11.3.
. -
(.., )
= +
, .
, , .
.
11.2
. , ,
.
10
, ,
, ,
:
. ,
, . - .
: (risk transformation), (maturity transformation) (size transformation). , .
11.2.
. ,
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. .
,
, , ... . , ,
.
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.
, : ,
, . ,
. , . , , .
. ,
. , .
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. ,
,
11
. -.
, , . , (credit risk).
, . ,
/, (moral hazard).
11.6.
, , , .
,
.
( ). , .
, , , , credit scoring. ,
, , ,...
, . , ,
.
. , ,
. . , ,
, .
, . , , ,
/.
,
, credit derivatives, .
11.1.
CreditBank . , 200,
, 10, , 190. , 120,
, 60, , 20.
12
CreditBank
(RE) 10
(D) 120
190
& 60
() 20
200 =
, ,
CreditBank, 15, 190 175.
, 200 (=10+190) 185 (=10+175). ( [11.7]).
15,
.
CreditBank.
, .
. 15
.
CreditBank .
CreditBank 15
(RE) 10
(D) 120
190 175
& 60
() 20 5
200 185 =
, 25, CreditBank .
165 (=190-25) 175 (=10+165). 180 (=120+60). -5 (20-25).
, 175
(=10+165), 180.
5 , -5.
Credit Bank .
13
CreditBank 25
(RE) 10
(D) 120
190 165
& 60
() 20 -5
200 175 =
.
.
.
. , .
. -
. , , , .
.
, .
, /
. , , .
, , . , , .
. , , .
,
,
, .
.
11.3.
. , t=0, AB
=100 .
, t=1 100 t=1 t=2. .
,
14
t=0
= 100
t=1
= 100
= 100
t=2
= 100
.
, , .
,
.
.
( ),
. , 100 t=0,
100 t=1, .
, .
, .
.
, ,
, , . ,
.
, :
,
.
. ,
, ( ) ( ) .
,
. ( 11.3).
11.2,
, () ()
.
11.2.
t=0 = 100, ,
iL = 10%.
iD,t=0 = 9%.
iL - iD,t=0 = 10% - 9% = 1%.
15
, ,
100. , , .
t = 1 iD,t=1.
.
t=0
= 100
iL = 10%
= 100
iD,t=0 = 9%
t=1
t=2
= 100
= 100
iD,t=1
t = 0, , , iL, , iD,t=0.
, , , iD,t=1, . .
iD,t=1 iD,t=0:
1. , , iD,t=0 = iD,t=1.
.
2. , .., iD,t=1 = 8%. iL - iD,t=1 = 10% - 8% =
2%.
3. , .., iD,t=1=11%. (): iL - iD,t=1 = 10% - 11% = -1%.
, t = 0, ,
t = 1, t
= 0 .
. ,
, .
. , , t =
1 11.3, . , .
, , . . /, ,
,
. , , ,
, , , , . .
16
,
. 11.4 11.7.
11.3.
11.1,
7, CreditBank 7, 120 113.
7, 193 (=113+60+20).
.
7 ,
10 3. CreditBank . .
, : / .
CreditBank 7
(RE) 10 3
190
& 60
() 20
200 193 =
.
17.
CreditBank 17, 10, . , , , 7 (=17-10).
.
CreditBank: ,
, , , .
, , , ( 11.6)
( 11.2).
11.1. !
,
, CreditBank,
?.
17
CreditBank 17
(RE) 10 0
190 ?
& 60
() 20 ?
200 ? =
7 CreditBank
15. 8 (=15-7).
, ,
, .
, 20, .
, .
.
, , , (lenders of last resort), .
11.4.
,
.
(FX risk), (country risk), (market risk), (technological risk) (operational risk).
.
: .
,
, , .
.
, . ,
, . , (long),
/ (short).
, ( ) :
, .
, ( )
: -
18
, .
1. .
$100.000. S = 0,8/$, $100.000*0,8/$ = 80.000.
9 0,769/$, $100.000*0,769/$ = 76.900
9 0,833/$, $100.000*0,833/$ = 83.300.
2. .
$1.000.000. S = 0,8/$, $1.000.000*0,8/$ = 800.000.
9 0,769/$, $1.000.000*0,769/$=769.000
9 0,833/$, $1.000.000*0,833/$=833.000.
, . ,
, .
CreditBank
. .
, .
CreditBank ,
. . .
.
.
. (sovereign or country risk),
.
,
. 2.3 .
.
.
9
1960 , 2 .
9 1980, , , .
.
(repudiation). (rescheduling), .
9 . , , , ,
.
.
, . 2
19
, .
, .
. . , , ., . ,
,
(trading) .
.
, ,
, , Citibank,
- .
,
.
, ..,
.
.
, , .
,
, , ,
,...
.
. , , , .
/
.
,
.
,
, , .
, , . , , (off balance sheet items), ,
.
1995 Barings, 230 ,
. , .
. , 25 ,
.
Murphy ,
, , .
11.4.
11.1, 15, 60 75.
, CreditBank, 20 5.
20
.
CreditBank
(RE) 10
(D) 120
190
& 60 75
() 20 5
200 =
, CreditBank.
H .
.
, ( [11.6]).
.
. , ,
, .
. .
11.5.
re = 0,10, , 10% .
.
, , 100, = +100,
100 . .
. , ,
, . , , .
100 , (11.6).
, . ,
(11.7).
.
100.
, 100. .
21
+100
+100
: 100 .
.
100
+100
1.
, Bank1.
:
, 100. .
, .
100
+100 100
+100
+100
+100
9 Bank1 +100
+100 100
Bank1
100 ( ) 100 ( ).
Bank1
(RE)
+100
(D) +100
22
D1 = +100 = H.
( [11.1]).
2. Bank1
re = 0,10, Bank1 . , 90% , 90. (
.)
Bank1 = (1 re )*( )
, Bank1,
.
Bank1, 90 ( ), 90 .
Bank1
(RE)
+100
(D) +100
+90
+90
, ,
, Bank2, 90 ( ) ( ).
Bank2
(RE)
+90
(D) +90
Bank2, , : . , Bank1 90
Bank2. .
+100
+100
9 Bank1 +10 (=+100 90)
9 Bank2 +90
Bank1 90
( ) 90 ( ).
100.
Bank1
(RE)
+10
(=+100 90)
(D) +100
+90
+90 90
Bank2 :
23
Bank2
(RE)
+90
(D) +90
+90 90
,
D2 = +90 = ( 1 re )*D1 = ( 1 re )*H
( [11.1]).
3. Bank2
re = 0,10, Bank2 .
Bank1 , Bank2 90% , 81, ,
Bank2 = (1 re )*( )
, Bank2,
.
Bank2, 81 ( ), 81 .
Bank2
(RE)
+90
(D) +90
+81
+81
, ,
, , Bank3, 81 ( ) ( ).
Bank3, , :
. , Bank2 81
Bank3. .
+100
+100
9 Bank1 +10 (=+100 90)
9 Bank3 +9 (= +90 81)
9 Bank3 +81
, , Bank2
Bank2
24
(RE)
+9
(=+90 81)
(D) +90
+81
+81 81
Bank3
Bank3
(RE)
+81
(D) +81
,
D3 = +81 = ( 1 re )*D2 = ( 1 re )2*H.
( [11.1]).
4 . Bank3
, Bank3, ,
72,9 .
, , ...
(11.1)
= CU +D
, CU = 0, ,
1 (1 re)n
1 (1 re )n
H =
H
re
1 (1 re )
1
H
re
11.4 .
H . , , , , , , .
25
, , , , :
.
() . , / . . , .
- .
,
, - .
. .
.
, , .
.
.
,
.
, ,
. , ,
: , , .
.
. . -
. .
, : ,
, ,
.
, .
,
. , , ,
.
11.6.
.
, , .
. BankA 10, BankB .
, BankA 90,
BankB 100.
, BankB .
26
BankA
(RE) 10
(D) 90
90
() 10
100 =
BankB
(RE) 0
(D) 90
100
() 10
100 =
iD = 3%, iL =
5%. .
BankA
4,5
2,7
1,8
BankB
5,0
2,7
2,3
, , , , ( 11.3), , .
,
.
27
. :
,
.
, , , . .
. , ( 11.3).
, . , , ,
.
. , , . ,
.
: , .
(
11.1).
. , :
, .
, :
. , , -, better safe than sorry.
11.5.
(11.8).
,
, .
.
,
.
, . , , ,
, ,
. , / .
.
. ,
& ,
, ,
.
,
.
28
, , . , ,
.
,
,
, .
,
. ,
, .., , . , , .
, , , , ,
. , . :
,
, .
,
.
, .
. , ,
. ,
.
.
, , , . , ,
.
,
. , , 3% , . , ,
. ( ), .
, , ; , , ;
, , ,
.
, ,
. . .
, ,
. , , ,
.
- . -
: -.
29
, , : BankA
: . , .
. , , , .
11.7.
11.7.
, ,
(= ),
.
,
, , . , ,
.
10.
(RE) 10
(D) 75
90
& 15
() 10
,,
.
.
, .
9 , .
9 , 10 75,
, . .
, ,
, .
, . , ,
.
.
, , 90 70.
:
(RE) 10 + 70
(D) 75
90 0
& 15
() 10 -10
80 (= 10 + 70), 75
. 5
30
. 15, .
10 (=5 15).
(-10).
&
. / .
& .
& -
, .
, ,
.
.
, -
, . . ,,
.
. .
. . ,
. , , / .
, .
11.8
4% .
11.8.
CreditBank 11.1. 4% , 7,6 (=4% 190).
-2,8 (= 20 3*7,6).
!
. -
.
,
.
, -
.
, . -,
31
-,
.
, , , , . ,
. , . , .
, ,
.
.
. , ,
.
, , , . , ,
. ,
, :
.
, : , .
, ,
.
, , . ,
, ,
. .
,
, : , ,
. .
, , , : , .
.
. 11.6.
11.6.
:
.
.
, , . , -
32
:
, , , .
: .
...
.
, : ,
.
, .
Akerlof (1970)
,
Akerlof (1970) .3
.
9 : , G, , B. , , .
9 G , B 1-. = 0,4. .
9 G AG, B .
9 , , . , G
AG, B .
9 , ,
AG B. G.
.
9 B .
9 G
.
9 , ,
B .
, , ,
,
, , .
,
.
:
3
George Akerlof, The Market for Lemons: Quality, Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism,
Quarterly Journal of Economics 84, pp. 488-500, 1970.
33
. , ( )
.
,
, ( ) ,
.
,
.
, , , , :
. 11.7.
. :
. , , .
11.7.
1.
2.
3. ,
4.
, 4
34
, ,
5.
6.
- , .
,
/ ,
9
9 (, , )
,
9 ( )
.
. , .
, .
/ .
, , , , .
, , /
, , , .
, (),
. , . , .
,
.
() , .
11.8. Too big to fail
, , . .
, .
11.5
, . ,
, ;
.
, ,
.
/.
, , ,
.
35
rR: .
rR = 0,10 (10%).
100 , 10 90 . rR = 0,05 (5%),
5 95 .
+
= = rR
, , (excess reserves).
.
= +
:
, ,
. , .
, ,
, .
,
, , . , .
11.9.
rR = 0,10. , , RiskyBank . 100, 10 (=0,10*100).
, , : +2 -2, 50%
. 50% 2, 102,
50% 2, 98.
+2, RiskyBank : 2 12 ( 11.5), . 102, 10,2 (=0,10*102) 1.8 (=12-0,10*102).
-2, . 98 8, 9,8 (=0,10*98).
, 1,8.
+5 -5,
.
, +5, RiskyBank
.
-5, . 95 5, 9,5 (=0,10*95).
, 4,5.
36
,
.
, , . ,
.
.
, , . . .
, , ,
. .
. :
, ,
. ,
.
, ,
, iD. .
iD o , , ,
. .
,
:
. ,
, i.
.
,
+
+
, ,
+ +
= , iD , i
+ + +
re = re rR , , iD , i
(11.9)
(11.4)
M=
1 + cu
+
+ +
re rR , , iD , i + cu
(11.4)
37
, H.
.
11.6
.
11.4 , ,
( ) ( ).
, ,
(Money Markets), , (Capital
Markets), . , .
, , , , ,
,
. , . , , .
11.4.
. , , .
, , (commercial banks).
, , (mutual savings banks),
(credit unions),
, Savings & Loans Associations . , universal banks ,
38
, , . ,
(investment banking) (insurance).
: , ;
;
, , ; ;
,
, , . .
, .
. , . ,
. ,
,
, , .
11.6
.
11.5.
,
12% = rA,L
SLoans
AL
BL
9% = rB,L
4% = rB,D
2% = rA,D
BD
AD
QA
DLoans
QB
QE
39
10%,
QA, 12% 2%.
5%,
QB, 9%
4%.
:
9 (transactions costs),
9
,
(contract writing costs)
,
(state verification costs),
40
11.6. &
,
:
9 : , ( ),
( ).
9 : (
), ( )
9 : , ( )
9 : ( ).
.
, .
=
, : ,
, ...
, .
. ,
.
,
.
, , .
, .
, .
41
.
.
. , , :
9
9 / (Pooling
Resources and Subdividing Shares)
9
9 &
9
9 .
.
. -
, ,
: , ,
.
11.4.
, ,
, .
&
: .
,
, ,
. ,
, ,
, .
&
: .
,
.
.
. ;
; ;
,
42
.
()5 .
11.9.
9 (matching) ,
,
9
,
.
, , (clearing
houses / financial supermarkets), (, , ), , , . , , .
, , .
,
, .
) (, , ), .
&
: //, .
, ,
, , ,
. , ,
.
) , , .
9 , .., , ,
&
: .
, .
9 /
&
: ,
, . -
1.1.1, , . 2-25 , . . ,
(2001).
43
.
&
.
9 , , ,
.
: (parallel loans) .
&
(brokers), .
,
.
.
() , , ,
.
,
, ,
. , , -
44
( risk premium), .
.
11.10.
100 4%. , 90% .
, , 100,
( 10%) 1100. ,
, 10%
9 100
9 0 0,9 (=90%) 1100 0,1 (10%)
0,9*0+0,1*1100 = 110
110 - 100 = 0,1, ., 10%.
100
, , 6% (=10%-4%).
100 ,
1 100 . . , , .
) ( ,
), 100 (0.9)100 = 0.000027 0.0027%
90%.
, , 100 , .
) , 3%,
4%+3%=7%.
, , , :
.
.
.
, .
& . ,
,
.
, , , , , . , , .
, . , , .
,
.
, , , , .
. .
45
, ,
(Moodys, S&P, Fitch IBCA), .
,
, ,
.
.
/ , , ,
.
. ABC
.
. .
, ;
) , ,
, , , .
& .
)
,
manager
.
9 , .
, , , ,
, ,
& : /
.
9 ,
, .
, .
.
& : .
,
, . ,
, , .
& : / . ,
, . ,
. .
46
& : ,
,
, .
, . ,
ABC, . , , 10 7
5 ..
; ! . .
. .
9 .
: ;, , 31 5 ; , 6:30;
;
9 .
10km ; 12,5km;
,
, . . , .
& :
.
, .
, .
, , .
,
. .
, .
: - , ,
.
, , . .
. . !
, , ,
47
. , . ()
(market discipline) , , , .
. , .
.
,
.
. , . , .
.
, , ,
, .
. -
, , , , , , , , , , .
: ;
;
, ,
, . . , , , ,
.
, . , , ( )
,
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49
.......................................................................................................... 1
11.1 ............................................................................................................................ 1
11.2 ............................... 3
11.3 ............................................................................... 7
11.4 ........................................ 25
11.5 ................................................ 35
11.6 .............................. 38
.......................................................................................................... 1
11.1 ............................................................................................................................ 1
11.2 ............................... 3
11.1. ....................................... 4
11.1. ............................................. 4
11.1. .............................. 7
11.3 ............................................................................... 7
. ...............................................................................7
11.2. ................................................................. 8
11.2. ............................................................................... 8
11.3. ............................................ 10
. ................................................................................. 10
11.1. .................................................. 12
11.3. ......................................... 14
11.2. .................................................... 15
11.3. ............................................... 17
11.4. ........................................................................................ 18
11.4. ........................................ 20
.............................................................................. 21
11.5. ........................................... 21
11.4 ........................................ 25
11.6. ........................................... 26
11.5. ............................................................... 28
11.7. ................................ 30
11.8. ........................................ 31
11.6. .................................. 32
11.7. ............................................. 34
11.8. Too big to fail ................................................... 35
11.5 ................................................ 35
11.9. ............... 36
11.6 .............................. 38
. .............................................................................................................................................. 38
11.4. ....................................................... 38
11.5. ....................... 39
11.6. &
.......................................................................................................................... 41
. .................................................................................................................................. 42
11.9. .............................................................. 43
11.10. Parallel Loans ............................................................... 44
11.10. .......................................................... 45
. ......................................................................................................... 48
50
& 12
12
Central banks combat inflation
( Financial Times, 11 2007)
.
central bankers, I assure you, are busy with many matters that are related tangentially if at all to monetary policy such as managing the payments system and
supervising banks.
(Alan S. Blinder, Central Banking in Theory and Practice, The MIT Press, 1998, p.
2)
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Princeton - ,
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Fed, The Federal Reserve System Purposes & Functions http://www.federalreserve.gov.
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The European Central Bank and the national central banks together constitute the Eurosystem, the
central banking system of the euro area. The main objective of the Eurosystem is to maintain price
stability: safeguarding the value of the euro.
( http://www.ecb.int/ecb/orga/escb/html/mission_eurosys.en.html)
- . .
The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It was founded by Congress
in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial
system. Over the years, its role in banking and the economy has expanded.
Today, the Federal Reserve's duties fall into four general areas:
conducting the nation's monetary policy by influencing the monetary and credit conditions in the
economy in pursuit of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest
rates
supervising and regulating banking institutions to ensure the safety and soundness of the nation's
banking and financial system and to protect the credit rights of consumers
maintaining the stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk that may arise in financial markets
providing financial services to depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign official institutions, including playing a major role in operating the nation's payments system.
- .
, .
, . Annual Report 2009
The Bank will also play its part in promoting an open and internationally competitive financial centre
in the United Kingdom, using its expertise to help make the United Kingdom financial system more
efficient, where such efforts would be in the public interest and provided that they do not conflict
with its primary responsibilities or those of other agencies.
www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/annualreport/2009/corepurposes2009.pdf
.
&
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13
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the stability-oriented monetary policy strategy.
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15
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17
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, Alberto Alesina Lawrence Summers 14 , 1955 1988.2 1970
1980 ( 3.1 3.2).
Alesina, Alberto and Lawrence H. Summers (1993). Central Bank Independence and Macroeoconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence, Journal Of Money, Credit, and Banking,
Vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 151 162 (May).
20 .
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22 .
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23
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& 12
b = 0,8
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ECB Annual Report 2009.
M3
24 .
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( [9.1]).
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www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/framework.htm.
20 , ,
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25
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27
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Over-indebted
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30 .
Legend. ECB: . IMF: . BoE: .
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31
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33
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39
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42 .
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44 .
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.............................................................................................................. 1
12.1 ............................................................................................................................ 1
12.2 ...................................................................... 4
12.3 ................................................................................................................ 19
12.4 ...................................................................................... 29
12.5 ............................... 42
12.6 ................................................................................................................. 43
.............................................................................................................. 1
12.1 ............................................................................................................................ 1
12.2 ...................................................................... 4
...............................................................................................................................................4
12.1. ............................................................ 5
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. ................................................................................................................................. 11
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. ................................................................................... 13
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12.6. , 1999 2008..................... 15
12.1. ......................... 16
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12.8. ........................................................ 17
12.9. .................. 18
12.3 ................................................................................................................ 19
. .............................................................................. 19
12.12. ................... 20
;............................................... 22
12.10. Paul Volcker 1980............. 22
12.1. .......................................................................... 23
12.11. ............................... 24
Inflation Targeting ........................................................... 25
12.13. Inflation Targeting .......................................... 25
....................................................................................... 25
12.2. ......... 26
........................................... 28
12.14. ......................................................... 28
12.4 ...................................................................................... 29
........................................................................................................................................ 29
12.2. ............................................................................. 30
12.15. ......................................................... 30
12.16. ......................................................... 31
. .............................................. 32
12.3. ................................................ 33
12.17. .......................... 34
. ............................................................................................................ 36
12.18. ..................... 37
..................................................................................................... 38
12.3. ..... 38
12.4. 40
12.19. Lender of the Last Resort & ........... 40
12.5 ............................... 42
12.20. 2007 ................................ 42
12.6 ................................................................................................................. 43
.
45
&
IuvoAAoYIJOTIKEt; laOTllJiEt;
BaaIKEt; -EVVOIEt;
Kal
IUVTOlJfllaTOplKrl
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aTTlV 1[[TU~TI ~laKpoOlKoVO~lK~C; crTaS poTTlTac; Kal aTTI 8laT~PTlaTl o~aAwv 8u=:
rrpoW8EL TTl <JUVOAlK~ OlKOVO~lK~ aWSpOTTlTa Kat TTIV UpWGTll Kat PlW<Jl~TI avu-
7rTU~TI, VW EAaXl<JTOrrou::[ TlC; m8pUGlC; TUXOV 8lawpU~EWV GTTI" EYXWPW Kat TTIV
13.1 ElaaywYrl
01 m.JVUAAUY~UTlKS l()OTl~lS lVat urro Tt<; rrA.OV EV01UCPEPOl)crES XPllj.l.UWOlKOVO~lKES
j.l.ELa~AllTES. ~UXVa - m.lKVa KULaAUj.l.~aVOUV La rrpu)'[ocrEAlOU WU XPllj.l.UWOlKOVOj.l.lKOU
Turrou, urrOTEAOUV W UVTlKElj.l.EVO U\jfllAllS OlKOVOj.l.1Kf]S trrACDj.l.UTlaS, rrpOKUAOUV OEOS
(HOUS OlKOVOj.l.lKOUS rrUpaYOVTES Kat Uj.l.llXUVla crE KU~Ep~crEt<; KUl KEVTPlKES TparrEi;ES,
rrEcpwuv eUj.l.ULa crllj.l.UVTlKWv rrupUVOllcrECDV - Kat 0Xl j.l.OVO urro Uj.l.UllWUS crTU OlKOVOj.l.l
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CPU1VELal VU EXOUV aXEcrll j.l.E TU 8E~EAtWOll OlKOVOj.l.lKa j.l.EyEell.
A.A. A VT~OUA(hoc;
rx~~a
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400 .
23/912000
300
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1,6
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1,2
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Surge in Dollar Surpri ses
Some. Worries Others
28/3/199 1
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5______~. 0,0
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10v-06
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fLtWO~ TaUe; UlIOTtfLl]Ol] TaU SoA.apiou.
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ouvaUaYfLallKwv laOll).lullV, Ka8we; Kat TWV EltImWOEWV TOUe; OT1]V OlKovOfLla Kat T~
xp1]).latoYOpEe;.
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).!EVtto1 6ll 01 to"OllfLle; 8a ara).laTljoouv va altoTtAOUV Eva Eh-1JO"llKO aVTlKtlfLEvO fLEAE
T1]e;. To aVTi8ETo 1ea ava8tlx80uv fLEptKoi alto roue; ltoUOUe; Tp61toue; lIE TOUe; Olt010Ue; Ot
tOOllfLite; 1IT\ PU~ouv T1]V alt680a1] TWV t1tV8UaEWv fLOe; aM.u Kat T1]V Ka81]).lp1VOTTITU
).lae;, 1] 1tOAultAOKOTTIto T1]e; OlKOVO).ltKlje; ~wlje;, Ka8we; Kat Ta ao~apu 81Alj).lfLOto to OltOta
Ka8taTOUV Tl1V UO"K1]O"TI T1]e; OlKOVO).llKlje; ltOAlTlKlje; avuAoY'l fLE T1]V ltpoaltu8tla TtTpayOl
Vta).lOU rou KUdou. Alto T1] 8tllKlj ltAtUp6., 8a cpave( 6ll ).lltOpEi va ltIpA1]8Ei KUltOta TUS1]
OTO xuoe; TWV xp1]).laTOOlKOvO).llKWV tSEAtSWV, 0"1]).lavllK6 ).!Epoe; TOU oltoiou ocpiAcTa1
all.(; olaKU).lUVa~ TWV taOll).llWV.
Avu).lwa ala VOtaCPEPOVla, Ka1 navroTE 1tlKatpa 8E).lara, 8a 1tK).l1]P1W8Ei 011 11 1
aOTl).lia a1tOlAEi svav alto wue; a1]).lavr1K61EpoUe; ala8Ep01t0l1]llKOUe; ).lTlXav10").lolie; 1WV
OlKOVO).llWV T1]e; ayopUe;. LE aUTO ro KcpUAalO avaAuTat ltWe; 01 fLETapoAEe; 11]e; EXOUV Ka
80PtaTlKO pOAo aT1]V 8t6p80laTi ).lyuAwv avtaoppomwv, OltWe; fLEyuAwv AAc1).l).lU1WV 10U
1aoi;uYloU TPXouowv auvaM.aywv, Ka8we; Ka1 aTTIV aVTlfLETWlt1aTl TOlV lt1ltTWO"W V uA
AwV aVlaOppOlt:lWV, 01[We; wu u'If1lAou ltA1]8wp1a).lOu.
Ev auvro).lia, TI ultoTi).lTla1] wu vO).liO).laTOe; Ka8laTU Ta ltpoi6vla TTle; xwpae; Itp1aa6
TEpO avraYOlvlallKu alle; oI8vi.e; ayopEe;, fLE altoTEAw).la va aUSUVOVla1 01 saywyse;, va
fLEullVOVla1 01 taaywyse; Kat, ).lsaw aU1WV, va PAtullVla1 TO 1aoi;UyIO 1PXOUOWV au
vaAAaywv. Eltia1]e;, 1] UltoTi).l1]a1] ~01]8u aTTIV OtaT~PTlO"1] T1]e; avraYWV10"llKOTTIrae; 1WV
ltpoi6vt:WV ).liae; xwpae; 1] oltoia EXEl uljI1]A6 7(A1]8wpta).lo.
To KcpuAatO, O).lWe;, KaAulnl apKETu aUa 8E).lara. 3 EK1VU fLE TOV Opta).lo TWV 8la
cpopWV taOTl).llWV. 01 (1tOVO).la~ofLEv<;) OVOllarnl Kec; taOTl).lite;, aUTSe; 7(OU avacpsp ovra1
awv XPTI).laT001KOVO).llKO 1UltO, Kat auxvu - mJKVU q1cpavi1;0vt:at ara ltpOlWaEAt8a rou,
ov tivat 01 \lOVe;.
LTTI OUVEXta KaAUrrTl sva KEVO aXllKa fLE 1~ mmwaE ~ Ka1 ro OUV1]TlKO KoarOe;
TOU ltA118wpta).lou: 11] aXE(J1] rou fLE 11]V OVO).laaTl~ taoll).lia. AOY1KU, acpou 0 1[A1]8wP1
a).lOe; 8ta~PWVl TTiV ayopClallKlj asia 10U XPljfLOTOc;, 8a 8tappWVl Kat T1]V avraUUKTtKlj
10U asia ar1]v ayopu (JuvaM.uY).laTOe;, 81]Aa8lj TTi V ovo).laaTlKlj taOTl).lia TOU. npay ).lUTt,
A.A.
A VT~ouM w<;
ClUTO au~pClivEl aUlv npelSI1, Clllit ~l1xavta~OS ~taCD wu onolou entpxe~Cll txel ClpKnel
:\EnTel al1iJEtCl ~.et OnOICl xpljt;ouv npoaox~s.
To KE<pell"ClIO rl.lvel iJE ~Iet "')VTO~11 neplypCl<plj TCDV KUpiuJv aua"l~elTCDV auvClnClY
~CltlKci>V taOtl~Ici>V. AUTlj 8C1 npowe6.a! ylCI Evet al1~aVTlKo au~ni:pClO"~CI aXEtlKel iJE ~l1v
mUcorlj wu KClTWI1A.OTEPOU O"uaT1j~ws ~ICl ~let Xci>pet: nClp6. ns KCI~el KCIlPOVS au~pou
Us nEpi ~ou ClVTl8tTou Clno i:yKUpouS ou:8viS XPI1~ClWOIKOVO~IKOVS OPYClVlo"~OUS, oev
unelpxel KClvi:vCl o"Uo"TI1~a TO onoio O"E ~iCl auYKeKpl~i:vlj nEpiooo vet EivCll ~o WlO KetTell,,
l"l1l"O ylCl o:\ES TIS xci>pes. 'OnCDS OEV un6.pXEl KCll KClvtVCl O"VO"TIl~et TO onoio iVCll ~O Evoe
OElY~VO ylCl ~iCl auYKEKPt~ Xci>pCl O"E o:\ES ~u; nEpt600Ue;. H nl"ljpl1S ~EK~l1piuJO"lj wu
8C1 yiv! O"TaOlClK6. O"TCI Eno).lEVCI ~i:aO" EPCl KE<pell"CllCI. EivCll, O~CDS, ~let ClKO~1) ClVTetV6.rl.ClO"1)
wu on OOY unelPXouv ruKo:\Ee; l"uaeu; O"T1)v OIKOVO~I~ t;CDlj.
To npo:\Ex8tv au~rrtpeta~CI aVCloElKWEl nEpCllTt pCD '1 crUVTO~1) entaKo"'lO"1) ~CDV XPI1
",~onoI118tVTOlv Clno TCI Ttl"l1 TOU 19'" CluDVCl auO"TIl~6.~Olv "'OTl~Ici>V. Ano ~o nplv ~ov A'
nClYKOO" ~lO nOl"e~o crUO"T1)~a aTCI8Epci>v laOn~ulJV ~e eniKEVTpo TOV XpuO"o, wv KClvovCI
TOU XpuO"OV (Gold Standard), o"w 6.vC!pXo O"VO"T1)~CI TIle; nEploooU TOU Mgaono U~ou,
O"~o iJE~6. ~ov B' nClYKoa~1O no:\E~o crUaTll~CI O"TCl8epci>v taOTl~Ici>V iJE errtKeVTpo W 00
l"elPlO, ~o yvCDO"TO OlS LVO"~I1~CI Bretton Woods, aTO crUaTll~CI el"eu8i:pOlS KU~CllVO~tvOlv
",on~llilv Cln6 tlS Clpxte; T'lS oEKCle~tCle; TOU 1970, KCI!, TEl"OS, aTO yvOlO"TO CDS 'Bretton
Woods [[' iJEl~O crUa~lWCl O"TCl8epci>v KCll ~ETClPl,,1)Tci>V 1000tl~uDV ano TCI ~tl"ll T'lS OEKClE
~io.c; tOU 1990.
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au~paott;etv, KCll ESClKOl"Ou80uv VCI au~PClOlt;OUV, iJE ~U; yOvtKOtepee; KOlVOlVlKEe; KCIl nOAl
TlKC; ~6.O"eu; ClVCI<poplKa ~E wv KPClTlKO nClpe~pClna~o aT1)V OIKOVO~let KCll ~ouS O"TOXOUe;
~11e; OIKOVO~I~S nol"nlK1\s Eo"Tl6.t;ov~Cle; O"TCI nl"i:ov npoO"q>ClTCI, to LVo"T'l~CI Bretton
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O"E ~let nepiooo ~gy6.Aou nClpe~pClna~v O"T1)V OIKovo~iCl. H EYKClTa:\Etlvlj ~OU, atlS ClpXi:e;
T1)e; OEKClHiClS wu 1970, unt p evoe; O"UO"T1j~CI~OS dw8i:pOle; KU~CllVO~i:vCDv 1000tl~ulJV, 0"11
~CI~o06T1)ae TIlV ClnClPxlj ~OU iJEyaAou KU~ClTOS q>v..o:\Eu8eponolljaeOle; TOU XPI1~CltOOlKO
VO ~IKOU aUO"Tlj~ettOe; nClYKoa~iOJS. H oe O"~po<plj npos o"Vo"T1)~CI netPO~IO ~OU 'Bretton
Woods', O"TO Ti:Aoe; Tile; oEKClnlete; TOU 1990, Clv~ClvClrl.a TOV EVTelvo~oyo npopA1)~Clna~
Otl 1) ClneAEu8tpOlO"1) ~ou XPI1~CltOOlKOVO~IKOV O"UaTlj~CI~oe; O"u~p6.o1aE iJE nol"Us O"UVCll,,
l"Cly~ClnKi:s KCll TpClnet;IKES KpiO"!e;.
H 100~opiCl KUKAoue; K6.vE!, KCll aE ClUTOVe; O"U~iJETEXOUV, MOTE ~E npOlTClYOlVlO"TIKO
POl"O, 01 O"UvClAA.ety~CltlKEs 1000tl~U:e;. BUnnE aXETlKa KCll TIlV Ev6~1)TCI 4.4 "eW~IKO
nAClimo KCll npCly~nKa EnnoKlCI".
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13,2 OvollaaTlKrllaoTlllia
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iJE ou:Svlj crU~POA.et $ KCll ClVTlO"~oiXOJS, 1)IO"on~let
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Ttllit TaU Eupw crE L'.oAapUI
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YnOTtll11cr11 EUpW
S $/
--
S.j,.
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t 0,833 =-.j,.
1,20
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Ta ooA6.ptO UnOTt~lamt. KClt ClVTlcrTpO<pWt;.
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ria TTapcioly~a , ~ia OUyKKPI~tV~ oTlY~~ ~ looTl~ia TOU EA~ETlKOU <PpciYKOU tvavTI TOU upw
~TOV SFrl ,6622/, vw TOU laTTwvlKoU Yltv 164,64/E.
Ano TI <) CUO OUTt,:; laoTil-liEC) l..mopEi va uTToAoYIOTEi '1 IOOTllJiO EAPETIKOU 'PPdYKOU KGI lorrwvl
KOU YltV.
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c,uvonat Ot ec,aywYES, X t , ).IEtOOvo~at at wmywYES, 1M J., Kal ~EhtWveTCtt W looi;uytO
Tpexou0OOv ouvaUayOOv, CA I I = X I - 1M t + NFl.
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oVO).laOTtK"S loon).lias. Mia u1t:o,i).llloll 1:OU EYxwpiou vO).lio).la,os ).lElWVEl 'llv avTCtAAa
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SiOTCt~al cruYKplTtKU aKpl~oTEpa. 01 ElaayroYES auc,uvOVTal, Ol E~ayroyts ).lEt6Jvo~al, Kal
W 100i;uylO TpExouaOOv cruvaUaywv XElPOTEPEUEl.
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tOY EyxOOPlO 1t:All8ropla).lO, 1:OV 1t:All8ropI0).lO trov E).l1t:OP1KWV T'lS ETalprov, Kat ns ).IE'[Ct~O
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vo 1t:apUOEty).la. 'EaTro on T11V 1t:Epi080 I Eva EUpOl1t:a'iKO aUTOKiV'lTO KoaTi!;Et Pe.'
IO,OOO, EVW Eva A).lEptKavtKo ).lE 1t:apO).lOill TEXVtKU xapaKTllPtanKU KoaTi!;et P",1 =
$10.500. H ovo).laanKIi 100n).lta Eival S, = $1,20/.
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TOKlVljTOlv, 1t:PE1t:Et va EK<ppacHouv 01:0 iOw VO).lta).la. AUTO yiVeTat ).IE XPT]01'] T'lS ovo).la
anKIis toon).lias Kat T'lS a,u~c; I'dJ6bov uvv TpUVV (E<paPlloYll 13.1).
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rplwv. LUYKEKpIIJEVa,
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$1 0.500
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KUV\Ka,
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tvavTI TOU 6oAapiou J..lE lllV IOOTIJ..lia va J..lH..iJVETOI m: Sf! = $1 ,08/. 'Eorw, ETTio'lC;, on 6EV IJEToBdAAE
TOI oun: I"] m: i5oAdplo TlJ.l~ TWV AJ..lEPIKOVIKt1N OUTOKIV~TWV OUTE I"] m: EUpW TIIJ~ TWV EUPWTTO-IKWV
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aTTo $12,0 00 cr f10,000'I .08$/E ~ $ 10.800. H 6,aljlopo T~<; TI~~I' TWV EupWTTa'lKwv KOI A~pIKavIKwv
OUTOKIV~TWV J..lEIWVETOI.
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(13.2)
P',t
H EV AOYOl aXEn1Clj n~i] ovo~<it;E1C1.lnpaYflaTlK1I(JOTlflia (real exchange rate).
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JtpCl.WCl.n1Clj uJt01i~'l"1l tOU OOAapiou, Kat aV1\(j'[po<pOl~.
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aXllKft t1~i] olVEtat ano ~laOla11 (13.3). :1:E C1.mi]v, 'l laon~ia eLVCl.t aE ~ov<iOES!aU "b"
(lVa.
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(\3.3)
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In cru~poAii;1 TOV '1lU<nKO AoyapI8~o, 01(0 T'IV l;iuOlu'l (4.3) "POD"'TE! onln(R, /R,.,) = in(S,
IS,. ,) + In(?,.,!P",.,) -In(P,,, IP,,,.,). J\(l~!tvOVTaS urr' O'llIV on X, = x,., + (X,- x,.,), 'I tt~~ ~i(lS
cruV(lPT~UEOlS q>(X,) eiVat q>(X,) = '1'( X,., + (X,- x,.,) ) Kal, 11 (lvtl1lTul;'I KOTa Taylor rrpwtou p08
~u , <p(X,) '" q>(X,.,) + [iJq>(X,.,) I aX,., l*(X, - X,.,), orrou a EivOI to cni~POAO T11S napaywyou. rIO TI]
cruvilPT'I"~ TOU A.oyapi8~u, <p(.) = In, EivOI aln(X,.,)1 ax,., = 1IX,.,. OrrOT, In(X,) '" In(X,.,) + [I I
X,.I l*(X, - X,.I) <=> in(X,) -In(X,.,) '" [1 I X,., l*(X, - X,.,) <=> In(X, IX,.,) '" [1 / X,., l*(X, - X,.l )' AA
Ail, [I I X,.,l'(X,-X,.,) = %'1X" orroTE In(X, IX,.,) z%LJX,. Luv8uai;ovms TO avOlTEPOl 11 T'IV no
TO
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A.A. AvtCouNho~
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V "V"V CJJ
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-011\0 3D I\nOl\l?X DIA9J,odlll?)lJ.Oll(T)dn3 D1 '%~ ' lIDurt!lOlln ~)lI1DOrl OI\O AUl I?l\d31133 '% l - 0'00 I '9 rtO
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I\lH QllO I\no)lQd:DIIlQ :OllJ1Q)lUDII\(T)AOlI\O 3D I\nol\J;>X 311)0 Anoi!Qd3)1 31('10 Oll\9.1.odll I;)I.I.DllMdn3 0.1
'0 ~ '1JJ7% 'A1QUn 10AP )D!nIlOOI )~'"DnAodll )U, ~yog013rl U , )~.,d3n\l10, )Ullryldn3 Qorlold!'lSUYll
J?docbolQ lu 3 r1 liD! IDA!) f!)dn3 n01 lJDlH1!1011n ~)IIlD0r1 0I\O LJ n01l9 'UD(T)11l!d311 ALl! ~lno 33:
"%Z = i".i;1l J9r1D1dmSUYll )Q)lII\O)lld3riV 0 10)1 %L = (';u )9rioldm9
-llyu )Q>(I.Dllmdn3 a '%"- = [3/$]'S17% 101\! 3 C!ldn3 n01 uour1]lOlln ~)lllD0r10J\O l.J 'OId1}1\30 9)11.001 oq
M
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'S Ul ~D(l3d?lOd13X 3TI DlA'91113::1l2DgTIOO A3g lwUTI)lDAD \pIUDmiOAO II lD)I S(1)1l9 'SXl]
A(1)lA910dll A(1)l SDlU19)111DlA(1),cDlAD Slll lwOJ)l"(3g 3TI lllA'9" 13))gDgTIOO A3g UDUTI)lOlLa
\pIllDmiOAO U " 9 3W)3dluDdDU 'Dlmi,c)3glldDll '9)1,d311'3]'9'DaodDll E' EI 013~ o~
'SmID9d lDllAD lD)! 'A(1)A?~ A(1)lllAD"1 A(1)lA910dll A(1))d
-(1)YJ..3 A(1)l Dllus>)lllDlI\(1),cDlAD Alu 13A'll'3TI D8
'~
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- Old,!,YJ..3 AOl 'SXl]TIllODl S\pIllDlln OAO Slu ~"(08Dl3TI D)DllOODOll Alu 'S?lU,,(8D1
-:n1 S)3dl 13X;nd3U '01l9d1 9)11,c0,,( lD)I 9 t11TIO)l AD"1 3TI A'll)llAD)l1d:n1y A(1)lllADA? A(1)lA9',odll
A'll)l),ll11(1)da3 A(1)l SDllU9)111DlA(1),cDlAD SUl S;r'(08m:n1 Sll 13])tIIOAaD (V' E j) llD(1)0)~3 H
:0 = 1117%
:0 < 1117%
:0> 1117%
''9)1llDlDDdDU
'lw UTI)lOlla 3D ~"(08Dl3TI \pIllltAdD '!'A3 ',!,da3 aOl lLDllTI)lDAD \pIllDDnoAO 3 D )3X101DllAD
S~()1ll0DTIOAO SUl ~"(08m3TI D)DllDODOll \pI1l38 ''llda3 '9AD Dld
-If''(O'l S(1) SD)TIllODl Slu (l0l1D1do aOl (1),c9"( 'SllD)1l3 'A'll)llAD)l1d3TIY A(1)lllADA? A(1)lA910dll
'0 < '1117% 'SXl]TIllODl S\pIllDTIA.Dd ll Sill ~"(ogDl3TI Xl]DllDODOll \pI1l3S '(j;I'Elllw(1)D)~3 AU.l3:
("~.u
--------
(HI)
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LT~V TpiT~ TT apaAAay~ , T~V OTTWAElO T~ <; OVTO YWVIOT1KOT~TOC; OTTO TOV U"'~AOTEPO TTA~8w PI
o1J6 , 7% - 2%, EvrEivEI 1"\ OVO lJa aT'K~ aVOTll-lflOrt TOU EUPW Karel 5'0. o!5l1ywvra<; m: OTTW}..[IO Tl'1 C; 0
vraywvloT IKOTIlTOC;' KOTa 1{)o.'O (= 5Q 0 + 5%).
l:T'lV rErapTr) 1Tapa AAay~ , 11 OVO J..laOTIK~ avorilJ'lor) TOU EUpW, 510, EivOI iOr) IJE Til Olorvopa TOU
XO lJilAOTE POU Eupwrro"iKOu OTTO TOV AIJEplKOVIKO nAr]9wpIOlJO, 7% - '::1t, IJEoTTortAEolJO '1 TTpaYIJO
TlK~ IOOTllJ fa va IJTl IJEwj3ciAAnOl. AUT~ 11 TTapaAA.ay ~ Eiva! avciAoYIl TOU j300lKOU ovapiou.
LIllV TtAEUTOfa TTapaAAav~, '1 oVOlJaOTlK~ avorilJrJ or) TOU EUPW, :5%., [ivOi IJIKPOTEPI1 anD Tr] 01
a<popd TOU XOI..1I1A6Ttpo u Eupwrro'iKou OTTO TOV A IJEPI KOVIKO rrAll8wplolJO , 7% - I':;: , j..lE OTIOTtAEOIJ O
fl TTpaVI-lOTIK~ IOOTllJi a va UTTOTIj..lcl TOI KOHl
. To EUPWTTO'IKO rrpoY6vTO Xcivouv Of. avraywvlOTlKO
T~TO KaH] ," Myw T~ C; ovo~aoT1K~C; aVOTI~~oEWC;, aMd KEpoi~ouv ' (- 7% - ,- ) aTTO T~ olOq>opd
TOU TTA~8wpIO~ OU.
, rw
JrEp"mOTEp E<; t EXVLKtC; AEJrtOlltpEtE<;, OUVl<Haml ~ IlEAi1~ 10lV Luca Buldorini, Stelios
Makrydakis and Christian Thim ann The effective exchange rates of the euro, ECB Occasional Pa
per Series No.2, February 2002.
A.A. A v1~OUNirO<;
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01 uTToAolm<; xwp<; ETTia'1<; [ ~TTOP[UOVTOI Kupiw<; ~[ TI<; ~la~~xavIKt<;, DAM txauv uljJ~MT[pa
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mpiaOa 1980 - 2005.
EupWTTa"'K~ -Evwa~
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
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lav-OO
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IOVTWV OTIC; 618vEic:; ayoptc;, Kat 01 600 6ivouv TO [010 OTTOTEAtOj.JOTO . ATT6 AOYIKri<; rrAwpdc;, ., 010
",apa TTA~ewpla~ au aT'1V [~iIJWIJ~ (13.4) EiVat KaVTa ara ~~otv. AVTletTW<;, 01 ~Ta~aAt<; T~<; ava
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Kat '1 Enaoa, EXOUV KOtvO VO~tCl~a, TO eupw. 'Eva eupOl T1j~ EAMoo~ aVTanaClCleTtlt ~
Eva eupOl T1j~ [TtlAla~, '1 01l0la ellimj~ eiVat ~AO~, ~E tCloTt~ia eva lIpO~ Eva. rla ''1V a
Kplpeill, Eva eupOl TO 01100 ,l9eTat Cle KUKAoq>opia ClT'1V E1,.Moa ~1I0pei va XP'1Cl'l'OllOl'1
Sei Cl''1V haAia, 01lW~ Kat Cle 01l0illOT]1I0,e an'1 XOlpa T'1~ EVOlClW~. T'1v oe KOtVlj VO~l
Cl~aTtKij 1I0AtTtKij aaKeL'1 EU pWlIalKij Kev,plKij Tpallei;a.
Ava~Cla ClTtl lIAEOVelC1:T]~aTtl T1j~ vO~lCl~anKij~ eVOlClEw~ ~exwpU;et TO OTt au~paoi
sEt ~e U'V'1A.OTEPO e~1I0ptO ava~wa ClTtl ~1,.'1 T1j~. To OE U'V'1A.OTEPO E~1I0PtO ml~pa1,.AEt
ClT1jV OtKOVO~tKij aVallTU~'1 Kat Cl''1 PE1,.Tlu>Cl1j TOU PtOTtKOU lIl1lEOOU. LE ~la eupUTtl,a
aui;'1T1j8eiCla ~)..ET'1, Ol Jeffrey Frankel Kal Andrew Rose' avaq>Epouv OTt TO E~OptO ~e
Ttl~U TWV XwpOlV - ~1,.OlV ~la~ EVOlClW~ eivat 'PE~ q>opt~ U'V'1A.OTEPO allo OTt TO E~1I0ptO
~ XOlp~ EK,OS T'1S VOlClWS E1ltllAEOV, KaSE 1% aU~'1Cl1j TOU E~1I0plou, WS 1I0ClOClTOU TOU
AEn, au~avEt TO KaTa Kq>a1,.T]V E lClOO'1~ ,0U1,.aXtClTOV KaTa 1,%. XapaKT1jplaTtKa, Ot
Frankel Kat Rose avaq>Epouv OTt '1 eiClOOOS T1j~ n01,.WVlaS ClrllV O.N.E. Sa OO'1YOUClE ClE
au~'1Cl1j TOU Ka,a KEq>aAT]V EtaOOT]~aTOS 'wv KaTOlKwv T'1S KaTa 20%. nOClOClTO Ka901,.ou
euKaTaq>pOV1jTO !
01lWS, 6~wS, lIapaT1jpeL 0 Kenneth Rogoff,' Sa liTtlv lIapaKtVOuveu~vo TO U'V11AO
TEpO E~1I0PlO, Kat Ttl auv amOl OlKovO~tKa Oq>E1,.'1, va all0008Ei alloKAEtClnKa ClT'1 VO~t
Cl~aTtKij EVWCl1j. XP'1Cll~OllotffivTas wS E1ltxeip'1~a T1j otaotKaaia ElClaywyT]S TOU eupOl,
lIapaT'1pei OTt lIapa1,.1,.'11,.a ~ T1jv lIpoe-rOl~aClia TOU KOlVOU vo~la~aTos, Ot XOlpS ''1S
O.N.E. Eq>awoaav lI1,.'18Olpa anwv ~TPWV Yill OlKOVO~lKij evolloi'1Cl'1. Me,pa Ttl 01l01a
KaAUlITtlV allo TO ~Ey90S TWV '1AEKTPtKOlV pUCl~aTWV ~XP" ,0 SW~tKO lI1,.almo TOU XP'1
~aTOOlKovO~tKOU ClUCln'1~TOS, Kat ,WV 01l0lu>V '1 elliopaCl1j ClT1jV avoOo TOU EVOO
Eupw1l(iiKOU e~lIopiou l1TtlV ~aUov ~yaAuTep'1 allo auti] T1j~ aTa8epas taOT'I'laS.
To Cl1j~VTlKOTEPO ~EtOVEKT1j~a eiVat OTt '1 KOtVlj vo~ta~aTtKij 1I0AtTtKij elva\ lIt8a
vov va ~'1V eiVat TO iiilO Ka,an '11,.11 Yill OAES T~ XOlPES - ~E1,.'1 . Amo tClx6el ClT1jV lIepl
7ttwa'1 01l0U Ol OtKovo~lKol TOUS KUdOl OEV eiVat Cluyxpovla~vOl, oev ppiaKoVTat, O'1An
OT], ClT1jV iota q>aCl'1.
rill T1jV O.N.E., TO 1lt8avo amo ~etovi:KT1j~a lIapoumaSe-rat Cl,O Clxil~a 13.4, ~E
XPT]Cl'1 TOU lIapaywYlKoU KEVOU T'1S EA1,.aOOS, T1jS Ip1,.avoias Kat T'1S Eupw-i;OlV1j~. Os u
lIev8u~lCl'1, TO 8eTtKO lIapaywytKO KEVO, TO olloio Cl1j~alvEt on ~ia XOl pa lIapaYEt lIavw
allo TO OUV1jTtKO ellineoo lIapaywyT]~ T1jS, eival eVOE~'1l11,.'18wPlClTtKOlV lItaewv allo T11V
lIAEupa T1jS S'1TT]ClEWS Kat TO aVTiSETO (pAElIe,E TO Ev8w 6.1, "n1,.'18WplCl~OS Kat <Dam1
TOU OtKOVO~lKOU KUKAou"). [ill 01,.'1 T11v lIEplooo TOU Clxil~a,~, 1999 - 2008, '1 Ip1,.av
Ola eiXE 11 ava~voTtlv va EXEt SETtKO lIapaywytKO KevO, evOl '1 EUaoa allo TO 2003 Kat
evTEU8EV. HOE O.N.E., ~ E~aipCl1j Ttl ET'1 1999 - 2001, eiXE apV1jTtKO lIapaywytKO Kevo.
Me paCl'1 aUTa Ttl ClTOlXEia, '1 KaTan'11,.'1 VO~tCl~aTtKi] 1I01,.tTtKij T]TtlV elleKTaTtKij Yill T1jv
Eupw-i;OlV1j allo TO 2002, Kat ClUClTtlATtKij yta T1jV EAMoa allo TO 2003 Kat T1jV IpAavola
yta OA'1 T1jV UlIO E~ETtlCl1j nepiooo.
"An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income", Quarterly Journal of
Economics, May 2002, pp. 437 - 466 .
" Why Not A Global Currency?", American Economic Review - Papers and Proceedings, Vol.
91 , No.2, pp. 243 - 247, May 2001.
A.A. AV1(ouAeXTO<;
16
rx';~a 13.4. napaVWVIKO KEVO KOI m,.,8wpICJ~o e; CJE EMalia, IpAavliia, Eupw-~wv.,
6..------ - - -- -- - - - -IpAavOla
EllAoC;
o
-2
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2Q04
200S
2006
2007
2008
'ETOC;
o xapaKT'lptcr~O<; TOU mJa-ni~aTO<; W<; 1:0U 1[AEOV a1:C!eEpOU ~aal~E1:at aE SUo eEa~tKU Xa
paK1:'lptClUKU 1:0U 1:C! 01[01a Kaeta1:0UV TO KoaTO<; a1[Oxwp1\aEro<; a1[O ~ia vO~ta~(ntK1\ E
vroa'l 1[OAU U'I''lAO. Kaew<; 'l mJ~~ETOxr\ aE ~ia EVro"'l e1vat EeEAoVTtK1\, 11 a1[Oq>a"'l au~
~ETOX1\<; 1\ a1[Oxrop1\aEro<; i Vat a1[01:eAea~a U1[OAOytCl~V KoaTOU<; - roq>EAeia<; a1tO w; EV
OIllq>EpO~VE<; XWPE<; Kat 1:1S 1[OAtnKE<; 1:6.I';EIS 1:OU<;. On81\1[01:E aU~UVt 1:0 6q>EAo<; mJ~~
1:Oxr\<; aU~~UAAet a"lv a1:aeEp0"l1:C! 1:OU mJ<>-ni~a1:o<;. To aU1:o Kat yta on81\1t01:E aU~UVEt
1:0 KOa1:O<; a1[Oxwp1\aEW<;. <DUCltKU, Ot i010t U1[OAoyta~OI taxUOuv ytC! 01t01OO1\1[01:E uUo
crUa"l~a.
IIpw1:Ov, E1tEt01\ at XWPE<; - ~EA'l OEV EXOUV OtKO 1:0u<; vo~ta~a, EUV a1tOxrop1\aouv
a1to "lv Evroa'l, ea 1[PEnEt Va Etauyouv YEO VO~ta~a. Kun 1:0 o1[oio ea O'l~1Ou pyJ]aEt "'l
~aVTtKO KOa1:O<; 1tpoaap~oY1\<; aE OAOU<; 1:OU<; OtKOVO~tKOU<; 1tapaYOVTE<;. Ba 1tPE1tE!, E1[i
a'l" Va O'l~1OupY1\aouv eECJ~OU<; Kat ~'lXaVtCl ~OU<; yta 1:'lV EKOOa'l, KUKAO'POPio. Kat EAeY
XO 1:0U vo~ia~1:0<; - Kan 1:0 o1[oio OEV e1Vat EUKOAO Kat, E1tl1tAEOV, a1[anEI xpOVO.
"'EUTEPOV, Ot eE<l~OI at 01[010t O'l~tOUpY1\e'lKaV yta Va OtEUKOAUVOUV "lV o~aA1\ Aet
1:Oupyia "l<; EvwaEW<; OEV EIVat EUKOAO va EYKa1:C!AEt'PeOUV. Y1tUPXOUV KOtVroVtKE<; O~UOE<;
at 01[0U:<; tXOUV mJ~q>EPOV ylll "l Ota1:1\P'la1\ 1:OU<;. Em1tAtov, Ot eE<l~OI atJ'[oi eE1:OtJV mJ
YKEKPt~EVOU<; KaVOVE<; yta T'l AEnoupyla "l<; OtKovo~ia<; Kat 1:0U xp'l~a1:00tKOVO ~tKOU
aua-ni~a1:o<;, 'l EYKa1:UAet'l''l TroV 01[01roV eO. 0'l~tOupyouaE ~YUA'l a~E~atO"l1:C! Kat OU
aKOA'l 1tEpiooo 1tPOaap~oY1\<;.
Ta OUO aUTO. XapaK1:'lPtClnKU, 1[apon EVtClxU0UV "l a1:C!eEpOT'lW TroV vO~ta~anKWV
EvwaErov Kat n<; Ka8taTOUV W 1tAtOV crW8EPU a1[O 1:a aucrT1\~aw aWeEpWV taon~tWV,
OEV TIS Ka8t<l1:0uv aSuva1:ES. To ma1:01totel TO Ev8no 13 .5.
'EvOuo 13.4. O. No ICJ OTIKi EVWO'EI fl..v EivOi .0 naVYo
Ka! 01 vO~IO~aTlK te; EVWOEle; ~lalluovral . Luv';6we;, uno KOO~OVOvIKte; Via TIe; ETT~pEa~O~EVEe; XWpEe;
OUVeliKEe;.
'1 (510Auoll
Klie; EVWCJEWe; Kal '~ e; T CJExoollo~aKiae; : H TTPW'~ OTle; apxte; '~e; ~EKOETiae; TOU 1990, orav ~lailU6~
K 'l LOPIET1Kr) 'Evwo'l KOI TO rrpOKU4JOVTO aVE~dpTIlTO KPOHI Io~yayav TO (5IKCt TOUe; vOj.Jioj..lom, 11
~EUTEP~ TO 1993, ~ETa TO ~Ellau~lvo , OTTWe; xapaK,~pia'IlKE , ~la~uVla 'Ile; TaExiae; KOI 'Il e; Ha~a
Kiac;-.
LTO napov ,wpa , KOTTala axoilia Via ETTEPXO~EVO ,tllae; '~e; O. N.E., ora npw,a ~';~OTO 'Ile;,
~TOV TTO}..U
np6wpa
KCI uTn:p~oA1Kd.
17
ana
vO~to~anKij
ano
18
O~UlS 11 EKT 10 avtaUo.Ol ~ aya96. Kat UmtpeOteS aE,ias 100 eupw, 'FOt 1tOAA.ct1[A6.mw;
af,ias tOU KOOtOUS 1tapayw'Y'ls. E1tI.1t)J;ov, '\ EKT ~opei va to xpllm~01tOtll0et yta va a
yop6.oet OOAo.pta, ta 01tOla Katatt9t~va 9a ttS a1to<ptpouv Ka1totO tOKO.
Le ~la vo~tcr~attK1\ tvwoll, auto to etcrOo'l~a KataA"Yet OtOUs KatoiKouS OAWV tWV
xwpwv - ~AWV. LtO 'dollarization', o~WS, KataA"yet OtOUs KatoiKouS t'lS eKoioouoas to
vo~tcr~a xwpas. fta 1tapo.Oety~a, to etcrOoll~a a1to tllV KUKAoqlOpia oOAapiwv OtoV ITa
va~a mtyaiVet mous KatOiKOUS tUlV H.IT.A .. at 1ttWXoi ITava~l;o~ xp'I~atoootoUV toUs
1tOAU 1tAOUmOtepOUS popeiouS yeltOVS toUS.
To etOOoll~a Oe auto OeV eival EUKataq>pOVlltO. ITapott OEV ~1tOPel va eKtt~1l9ei ~e
aKpqJla, yta ~la tu1ttK1\ ava1ttuooo~ xwpa aVPXetat atO 5% - 10% tWV eooowv tOU
1tpOii1tOAoytO~OU. Eav a1toAe0gel, Sa 1tP1tl va avtucataota9el a1to aUt,llo'l tWV q>opwv "
va avttOtaS~lmel ~ ~dwoll tWV oa1tavwv: "'uo e1ttAOYS ot 01tOlES OEV dvat Ka90Aou
eUKOAeS. E1timIS, to etoOoll~a tUlV H.IT.A. a1to til XP"Oll tOU oOAaplou ws vo~tcr~a Oe
'dollarized ' XWpeS aUa Kat WS a1t0ge~atlKOU vo~io~atoS eKtl~tal atO J% tOU AEIT.
Ev KataKAeio~ 'I vo~tcr~atlK1\ tvwoll U1teptepei tOU 'dollarization' . E6.v Ot XWpes, 0\
01tOlES xpllm~01t01OuV to vo~to~a ~iaS aUllS, elxav e1tlA0'Y'l, Sa 1tpott~ouoav tllv tVUlC>TJ.
Mil u1tapxouC>TJS autiJs tllS e1ttAoy"S, Sa 1tp1tet va U1to.PXouv Kal 6.UOl1tap6.YOvteS Ot 0
1tOlot, OtOUS 0XetlKOUS U1tOAOytcr ~OUS KomoUS - Wq>eAelaS, KAeivouv tllv 1tAaattyya urrtp
tllS UlOSetiJOecoc; tOU 'dollarization ' . B)J;1tete oxetuco. tllv eV0tllta J 7.5 "LtagePS Kat
MetapAlltS 100tl~teS - LUYKptttK6. ITAeOVeKtll ~ata".
EmrrAov, to 'dollarization' elVat hyotepo OtagePO a1tO Otlll VO~to~atlK1\ tVWOll.
LtO 'dollarization ' OEV U1t6.pXet to 9EC>~lKO unopa9po tllS EVWOeWS Onws oev U1to.PXOUV 11
noAttlK1\ POUAllC>TJ Kat KOtVWVlK1\ ouvaivEC>ll nou auto to unopa9po avtlnpOOW1teUet Kat
EVtOx1Jet. Enm)J;ov, Myw tWV npoavaq>epSt vtWV OUYKPtttKWV nAeOVeKtll ~6.tWV tllS eVW
OeWS, to KiVlltpO yta ' dollarization' elVat a0gevt otepo.
Currency Board.
Auto to ouotll~a Xel ttooepa Ki>pta xapaKtllptOtlK6.. ITPWtOV, to vo~to~a dvat OUVOe
Oe~EvO (pegged) Oe Ko.1t01O tOXUpo f,EvO vO~tcr~a ~ Otagepa tOOtl~ia. "'eutepov, unapXet
eAeUSePll ~tatponiJ tOU eYXUlploU Oto f,tvo vo~to~a avaq>opas: Ono1Ooo,,1tOte OlKOVO
~lKOS nap6.yUlv, Eq>' OOOV to em9u~i, ~noPei va ~etatplJIel ono1Oo"note 1tOOO eYXwpiou
vo~io~atoS OtO f,EvO vo~to~a avaq>opaS, ~e tllv npoKa90ptcr~tVll otagepo. tOOtl~la.
Tpitov, 11 KEVtptK1\ tpa1tel;a OeV ~nopei va oll~1OUPY"Oet eYXWptO xp,,~a Kata pou
AllC>TJ LUyKeKpt~Eva, 'I vO~lO~atlK1\ Paoll KaAU1ttetat eV OAW " eV ~Pet a1to cruvaUay
~atlKa anoSt~ata. E1tetO" ta teAeUtaia OeV ~1topei 11 KEvtP1K1\ tp6.nel;a va ta aut,,,Oet
Kata POUAllC>TJ, Ka90tl1tpoS tOUtO xpeuU;etat 1tAeovao~a OtO tcrol;uytO 1tAlIPW~v, ouot
aOtlKa ane~noAei tll ouvatot1\ta olW1OuPYias eyxwpiou xp,,~atOS Kat tllv ouv autiJ ou
vat0tllta amd]oeWS aUtovO~llS vO~tcr~atlK1\s 1tohnK1\s
A1to texv1K1\s 1tAeUpo.S, 11 vO~to~attK1\ Pao'l elvat evooyevTJS ~taPA'It". Auf,avetat
otav to tOOl;uy1O nAllPw~wv elvat nAeovao~attKO, BP > 0, OUpptKVWVetat otav eivat eA
Ae\j.1~atlKO, BP < O. H Oe KevtptK1\ tpanel;a OEV txet anOAUto tAeYXO OtO tool;uy1O nAll
pw~wv: Nat ~V emtpeal;et, ~OUl tWV enttoKiwv, tlS etcraywyts, tlS et,aywyts Kat to tOO
l;uy1O xpll~atootKovO~tKWV ouvaA.Aaywv, aUa OEV ta e)J;YXet nA"pUlS.
TEAOS, npos evioxuoll tllS af,101ttonas tOU cruotiJ~atOS, UmlpXel geO~lKTJ OO~C>TJ
tWV Apxwv: Ta npollYOU ~eva tpia xapaKtllptOtllCa opil,Ovtat Oe VO~lOUS tOU KpatoUS Kat
OtOV KCltaOtCltlKO x6.ptll tllS KevtptKTJS tpantl;llS. 01tOte, yta tllv eYKCltaAetlJlll tOU ou
onWCltOS ClnCltteltal OxetuciJ VO~0getlK11 pu9~tC>TJ. AutiJ, ~ tll Oelp6. tllS, Cl1tClttel xpovo
Kat Kan010 paS~o KOtVWVlKTJS cruVatvtOeWS. H Oe eq>Clp~O'Y'l tllS OEV elvat tOOO Cl1tA" 000
tllS ClmxpaOecoc; ~taPOA"S tllS tcrOtl~ias onWS OtO e1tO~VO OUOtll~Cl, to 'truly fixed ex
change rate'.
fta tllV KCltClv6'1011 tOU currency board, ClPKel 11 ouyxptC>TJ tOU tOO AOytO~Ou tllS Ke
vtPlKTJS tpantl;llS ~iClS XWPClS 11 onoia to XPllOt~onOtEi ~e tOY tcrOAOYlO~O ~laS tumKTJS
KevtptK1\S tpClntl;llS LtO 1tapaOety~Cl nou ClKOAOUeei 11 VO~1tO~CltlKTJ paC>TJ, 11 1tAeupa tOU
A.A.
Avt~OUAa'tO~
19
EVEPY'1 UKO
TIa8'1 TlKO
EVEPY'lUKO
TIa8'1nKO
KUKAQ(POP01iv Xp~).la
)..lanKa. Arro8z).101a
K01V6
).lo:nKU Arro8tpulO
KUKAoq>opOUV
Kotv6
o Xp~).larOKlpcilTlO
Tp01rEi;rov
Xp ~).lo
o Xp ~!,orOKlpwno
TIi<l'!"'''~ K. T.
Tp(l1[Ei;wv
o KUPEPV~!\KU
KoraetcrEl(; Tp01rEi;wv
o
O!,6AOYO
Allis nl(J'!WOEl!;
KometO'w; Tp01rEi;wv
H KEVTPIKlj TpurrEi;a "1S OrorEP'1S xwpas 1l1wpd va au~ljO'El T'1 VOlllO'lianKlj pUO"l 1<mu
POUA'1O"l Kuvovras rrpu~EIS avolKTTJS ayopus il ausuvovms "1v mO'TwcrTJ "1S (Jllli, Ih
mWIJfil,) rrpos "1v KU~i:PVlIO''1 lj TIS ElllWPIKtS Tpum:i;ES T'1S 1[Pro<'1S OEV Il"opd, otvo
vras OUO'illO'UKU W xtpla "1S.
H avwTtpw crUYKPIO''1 avaOElJCVUEI Kat Eva O:A'-o xapaKTI]pl<HIKO <wv currency
boards: H KtvrPIKlj <pO:1[Ei;a oty tXEI "1 ouva<o"1m va 1[apuO'XEI PEUO'<OT'1m O'<IS TPU11:E
i;ES "1S xwpac;, O't ntpin<wO"l avuYK11S /l.EV 1l1WpEl va AtHOUpyljO'EI wS i5avfilm~, rdfiv
raia, KararpvYllC; (lender of last resort ), YEYOVOS <0 01[oto a uc,uvEI T'1 O'a8po<'1m TOU XP'1
lla<OOlKovollUCOu O'UcrT1jlla<os. Ev avu8EO'Et, O'<IS XropES xw p~ currency board, '1 KEvrPI
Klj <po:ntsa ~l1lopEi va EK11:A'1proO'EI au<lj <'1 AtHOu pyia, auE;o:vovws us 1[[O'TroO'EIS <'1S
1[POS <IS EIl1[OPUCES <po:nEstS ' "1S xwpas. AuE;uvovras, O'1Aaolj, <0 Aoyaploollo AUES
TIIO'<WO'EIS O'''1V 1[AtUPO: <OU t vtpY'1UKOU Kat Kam8EO'EIS Tpa1[Ei;rov O'TIlV 1rAEUpO: <OU
1[as"UKOU ( ~UnE<E O'XEHKU <0 Ev8ETO 11.'1" ).
o Il'1Xav10'1l0S ~O'w <OU onotou W 1000i;uylO nA'1pwl!cilv E1I:'1PEUi;EI "1 vOlllO'lianKlj
~uO"l ElVat rrapoliolOS IlE aUTov K0:8E O'UO'<ljlla<os O'Ta8Eprov 1000Hllu:OV. TIapouolo:i;t<at
aVahnLKO: O"'lv EV0"1W 15.2 "EE;W<EPIKlj AVlO'opporria - AmoliaTOS Lm8EporrOl'1uKos
M'1xavI0'1l0s". Erri <OU rrapovros, tva 1[apo:oElYIlU apKEt.
cO'<w on urro:pXEI rrAtOVaolia O'W 1000i;uylO rrA'1pwllroV. To nAEovaO'lia amo avn
O'TOIXEi O'E U11:Ep~uUouoa i;lj"1O''1 yill <0 vOlllO'lia TIlS xropas (pUnt<E T'1V E<paPlloylj 2.2.
"SP > 0 =:> Y 11:Ep~uUouO'a Zlj<'1O''1 yta TO EyXroplO NOlllO'lla"). TIPOKEllltvou va arro<pEu
X8d '1 ava<ill'1O"l TOU EYXWptOU vOlliO'llawS, '1 orroia 8a urrOvOllEuE w rrproTO ana m 8E
O' IiIKO: xapaK<'1PIO'HKU <ou O'UO'TTJIlUWS, '1 KEvrPIKlj <punEi;a rrapEIiPatVEI O'T'1v ayopo: O'U
vaUO:Yllaws: Ec,aAt1<pEI <'1v urrEp~uUouO'a i;ljTIlO''1 rrouArovras <0 EYXroplO vOIlIO'lla, w
orroio auc,uvEI <'1 VOlllO'liauKlj PO:O''1, Kat ayopui;ovms c,tvo, w orroto auE;o:vEI w ouvaA
AawauKu arr08Ellaw. To aVTIO'Tpo<pO o"1v rrEptn<WO"l tAAttlillaws O'TO 1000SUYlO rrA'1
pWllroV.
To currency board ljmv <0 crUVYJ8ES crUO'''1lla <wv arrOIKu:Ov. EYKaraAEi<ps"KE O'WOI
aKu O'W IlE<u TOV B' TIaYKOO'Il10 TIoAEIiO Xpovta, OWV 01 aVEE;o:pT'1<ES rrMov anolKiEs El
O'ljyayav Ol1CU <ouS VOlltO'llaw. LUIl<pwva IlE w /I..N.T., w 1960 urrljpxav 38 XropES Kat
arrolKiEs 01 orroiEs EiXav currency board. To 1970 dXav IlEWl8Ei O'E 20, EVro TO 1980 O'E
1l0AlS 9.
ErravljA8E, OIlWS, 0'T'1 O'UVtXEta, O<'1V rrpoO'rr0:8Eta rroUrov IlIKProV xwprov va avr1llE
TwrrtO'ouv IlEYUAtS llaKpOOIKOVOlilKES aVlO'opponiEs, Kat 0'1 TOV U'\lTlAO rrA'18wpI0'1l0 . 0
OIKOVOIiIKOS E8vlKlO'Il0S tOWO'E T'1 8tO''1 TOU O'TOV OIKOVOIiIKO rrpaYllaUO'll0. H apxTJ tYIVE
IlE "1v [O'aywylj wu currency board O'TO XOVYK - KOVYK, TO 1983. TIapou TO XOVYK
KOVYK ljwv TO<E BPEWVIKlj arrOlKta aKa 11'1, TO VOlllO'lia ava<popus ljmv w OOAUPIO
H.TI.A..
Ta crUyxpova currency boards txouv ws vOlllO'lia ava<popo:s w OOAUPIO Kat TO EUpro.
Avuw:O'a ow XOVW ws vOlllO'lia ava<popus TO OOAUPIO E;EXWpti;ouv (O'E rraptv8EO"l <0 E
20
m; E'Clayooyi],) TIl, Apyf;Vt'V1j, (1991 ) Ka, TIl, A,80uuvU:u; ( 1994). LTIl A,80uaVlU TO CU
pciJ aVTU((lTEClTIlClE TO OOAUpto Ta 2002. Avu~Cla ma EXOVW 00, v6 ~tcr~a aValOpU, TO
cupciJ SEXooPU;OUV TIl, ECl80via<; (1992), BouAyapla<; (1997) Kat Bocrvla, - Ept;EYO ~[V1l,
( 1997). Tu TEAeUTala up;(1XU Eixav 00, VO~tCl~U ava<popu, Ta [Ep~VtK6 ~UpKO. To ~UPKO
Clw~aTIlCl E Vcl KUKAo<popd 6wv EtcrTtx8'1 TO cupciJ.
H KClTappcuClTj TaU currency board TIl, ApYEvnV1j, 10 200 I, EV ~ClW ~Cl8ui, xp'1~
TOOtKOVO~tKft, Kp[ClEoo" U1lV8U~tcr E Ta opm TOU EV A6yoo ClUClTft~UTO" 61lW<; Kat Ka8E (IU
CllTt~ClTO, CluvuAAuy~nKciJv tcron~'ciJv. KuvEva crUClTIl~u OV ElVat 1lUVaKEtU, OmE ~1lopd
Vcl U1l0KUWClTftClt tva OAOKA'1Poo~VO 1lAUlcrtO OtKOVO ~'Kft , 1loAmKft, ~ crT6xo TIl ~cl
KpOOtKOVO~IKft Kat XP'1~UTOO'KOVO~IKft crw8p6TIlTU. BAE1lT ClXEnKa TO Ev8TO 5.3
"Exchange-Rate-based Stabilization Programs".
:EUYKP1V6~v0 ~ 10 'dollarization ', TO currency board EiVat 1lpOn~6Tpo Ku86n '1
XciJpcl tX1TO 01K6 TIl, V6~ICl~U Kat Elm OV xaV Et TO Etcr6o '1~ Cl1l6 TO EKoonK6 1lPOVO~tO.
'01loo" O~oo" K(ll ~ TO 'do llarization ', OEV ~opEi vu UClKftcrEt aUT6vo~'1 vo~tcr~anKft 1t0
AmKft
E1ll1lAEOV, TO currency board ElVUl EUKoAoTEpo vu EYKUlaAE1<p8d. Aoyoo T'1, U1lap
SEW<; Eyxoopiou VO~iCl~UTO" TO KOClTa, EYKuTUAiljlEW, EiV(ll ~lKp6TEPO a1l6 6n "TllV 1lEpi
1lToocr'1 TOU 'do llarization' .
"Truly Fixed" Exchange Rate.
LE UUT6 TO crUcrTIl~U, '1 KV1PlKft Tpa1lEl;u uVUKOlvrovEl mu8Epa lClon~iu tVUVTL KU1l010U
lClXUPOU VO~iCl~UTO" /)oAupiou, cupro, yliv, ... H /)mlTtP'1Cl'1 TIl, UV(lKOtvoo8lClU, lClon~i
a<; U1l0TAEi otCl~UCITj TIl, KVTP1Kft, TPU1tEI;'1" L1tCl ~ucr'1 '1 01lola l'1piwl E<pOClOV TO
o<pEAO, u1l6 l'1V Tft P'1crTt TIl, SE1lEpVa TO K6C110, u1l6 l'1V uetTIlcrTt T'1'.
H U8E1'1C1Tj, 1taveoo" TIl, t:v Myoo OEcr~ClEoo, DEV U1l0TEAEi 1taveoTE 8t~a UnATt, 1l1
AoyTt,: TIOUE, <pOpE, U1l0TEAei UvuYKuClnKft E1ttAOYTt Ku86n'1 KEV'tplKft lpa1lEt;u OV EXEt
TIl ouvu16TIllU va m'1piSEl TIlv UV(lKOlvoo8Elcru lClon~la. Kut, ~aAtClW, UvuYKucrnKft E1l'
AOyi] u1to n~Ttcroo" '1 01tola i;'1~tillVl TOUS EXOVT, 1lEvoucrw; ClTO v6 ~ICl ~U 1'1, xropu,.
AvsaplTtToo, 1taVToo, TIl, OUVUT01'11U, Tt ~'1 , '1 u8ETIl Cl'1 TIl, /)Ecr~UCI oo, EVEXEt W ClT01
XEla TIl, CluVuUUY~ClnKft, KplClEoo,.
LUYKP1VO~0 ~ TO 1tpO'1YOU~VO crUClTIl~a, TO 1tUPOV iV(l1 Aly6TEpo mu8EpO. E1tI
oTt OV U1taPXE' 10 8W ~IK6 u1tO~Cl8po TaU currency board, '1 aAAClY Tt TIl, ClVUKOlvw8Eicr'1,
lClon~la, it KCll '1 EYKCllaAE lljlTj TOU (lUClTTt,lClTO, Kat u108t1'1Cl'1 Ka1tOtOu Cl1tO TCl 1tO~Cl,
VtXEl ~lKPOTpO K6C1TaS.
Adjustable Peg.
Ol APXt, UVClK01VroVODV ~iCl crlCl8EPTt tcron~la (peg) YClV'tl Ka1tOtOU Cl1t6 TU Kupm vo~i
CI~alCl, KCll U1t6C1XOV'tCll Vcl T'1V ClTIlPii',ouv ~EClCl CI Ko.1tOm 6p'Cl. NCl ~'1V E1tLTPEljIOUV, 0'1
AU0 Tt, ~yo.A, Cl1tOKAlcr14 Cl1t6 ClUTftV. L1mTIlPOuv, 1tl1lAEOV, TO O'KClioo~a Vcl ~ETClPaUouv
TIlv tcrOll~la 6wv 10 1t,~aAAOUV 01 ClUV8TtKE,. 01 ~ETCl~OAE, ClUTt, dVCll ClXEllKo. Cl1to.VL"
~ Cl1tOTtAeCl ~u '1 tcron~iu Va1tClpOUCllai;E' ~yo.AE' 1tEPI600u, mCl8p6TIlw,.
H ClU~1lEpl<p opa TooV lClon~tillv ClE ClUT6 10 ClUCll'1~Cl 8Cl OlX8El ~ 1tpClY~11Ko. ClTOl
XEla Cl1t6 l'1V 1tpiooo lOU 'Bretton Woods', TOU 1tClYKo Cl~iou CluClTft ~alo, tcron~tillv ~la
10V B' TIClYK6C1~1O TI6Ae~0 (PAt1tETE TIlv v6TIlw 13.6). L ClUT6 TO ClUCl1'1~cl, '1 lcron~iu
TooV om<p6poov VO~tcr~o.looV TtWV 1tpOClOlOP1Cl~Vl') tVUV'tl lOU oOAClpiou, ~ 1ll1pm6 6P10
~ pClXUxpoviwv u1toKAiClEwv 1%. 'OlClV, o ~w" U1tTtPX xpovm ClVtcrOPP01tlCl Cll0 tcrOi;uylO
" TPEXoUClroV (lUVClAAClYrov, '1 tcrOll~(Cl ~1tOpOUClE Vcl aAAo.i',l - Ei', OU KCll 0 1tpOClOlOPlCl~6,
'adjustable' .
To ClX"I~ 13.5 1tupoUCluii;l 1'1v tcron~iCl TOU [UAAlKOU <ppo.YKOU, l OU EA~nKou
<PpUYKOU KCll TOU [Ep~avlKou ~a pKou YClVn lOU OOAapiou, ylCll'1V 1lEpiooo a1t6 TOV lu
VOUo.plO 195 7 - 61ClV ClpXii;ouv W ClXllKa ClT01Xla ClTIl ~aCl'1 OEO O~WV International
Financial Statistics, ~EXPI 10V L1EKE~~ P 10 1970 - Aiyo 1tp'V TIlv KUTo.PPEOO'1 l OU ClUCllTt
~ClTO" LE aU16 TO OlaClTIl~, 10 [ClAAtK6 <ppo.YKO U1tOn~Tt 8'1KE lpEL; <popt" ~ TIlV ll~Tt
A.A.
Avt~OUAOt<O<;
21
TaU OOAapiou va aUSUVETaI a1l6 3,5 '1'puYKa avu OOAUplO TOV IClVOUUPIO 1957 aE 5,55 TOV
Auyouam 1969. ,H loonl.tiCl tau EA~EnKOu '1'PUYKOU llape)!elVe OTaeepij, yupw cna 4,3,
Kae' 6ATj TT] OIUpKelCl TOU u1l6 EseTClOTj olaaTij)!aTo<;. HAO<;, TO rEp)!ClVIK6 )!UPKO ClVClU
)!ijeTjKE ODO '1'0pe<;, TOV MUPTIO 1963 KCll TOV OKTW~PIO 1969, '1'epOvtCl<; TT]V laOU)!la Cl1l6
4,2 )!UPKCl ClVU OOAUPIO TOV [ClVOUUplO 1957 OE 3,6.
rx~~a
TI~~
EA~(TIK6
<IlpOyKa Kal
r(p~a VIKO
6 ~
5,5
r ailAIKo <l>p6YKO
EA~Tl KO
4,5
<1>pciYKO
r Ep~aviKO Mo PKO
3,5 ----J
L. I
3 ,
law;O
lav-57
lav.69
Mrjva<;
Crawling Peg.
~e
>
(~nOpIKOl:'e; T~e;
anoia tX(1 uljJ~II6T(po nA~9wPla~a KOHl 1% ~~vla iwe; ana TOUe; Kupioue;
Taipouc;. ria va (IvOi ~ noooonaia ~Ta~oA~ T~e; npawa n K~e; l oaT1 ~iac; T~e; ~~O(
VIK~ , o~Aao~,
A.A. A VT(OUA'lTOC;
%115 - 1%,
22
Kal va
1.111
X6VE1 OE avTOYWVIOTIKOTrITO ,
rrpETTEI
%,15 = 1%
rporrsll<; TO qJTTlon:uovral , TOn: TO VXWPIO TTITOKIO m: ~.H1Vlaia ~6a" 80 [ivOl fao IlE TO (SlEevES: .
auv~ewc;: KClTTOIO ETTITOKIO TaU 50Aapiou H.n.A ~ TOU EUpW , auv 1% - TO TToaooro Tile;: UTTOTlI..nioE
WC; , auv TO orrola aa<poAlorpa KIVOUVOU KOI pEUOrOTllToc;: ~rllouv 01. 019vl<; 1TVOUTC;: Via va ETTEV
Maouv aT~v EV Mvw xwpa (~AimT( KOTWTtpw T~ auv/JI')K'1laOOUva{.lia, TWV WITOKiwv).
Edv, 0IJWC;, 01 ayopt<; (5[\1 j.JmOnUOVTOI TrW KEvrpIKr'] rpOTTEsO, TO (lTiTOKIO So EiVaI TTpoaau
~rH.Jtvo OXI KOla 1%, aAA6 KOla TO avo~Ev61-l[vo OTTO TIC; ayoptc; U4JflAOTPOnooDOTo UTTOTllJriOW C; .
BAimTE aXElIKa T~V E<pap~ov~ 14.5 " E~~VwvTae; TO AaTpovo~IKa ETTIToKla".
T o cra wling peg ~mOp Et va ~Ak1tW) 1tpo<; TO ).I1tpocml ij 1tpo<; tCl1ttClCO. Na a1to<paClii;Et Cl l,
OT\A.aoij, TO 1tOClOCltO tCOV 1)1tOH).IijClEcov ).IE ~a.Cl'l n<; 1tPO~A.t'l' E ~ Yill ttl ola<popa. t01) 1tA.'l
8CO P1Cl).lOU TII<; )(wpa<; Kat t COV E).I1tOP1KWV TII<; natpCOV ij ).IE ~a.<r1l TIl Olarpopa. t'l <; 1tPO'l
Y01)).IEV1l<; 1tEP10801).
Ev9ETO 13.5. To Crawlin
Pe
Ou 0 ia . 1995 - 2001
T ov MapTlo 1995, ~ETd OTTO lJia TTEpiooo I..IEydAwv EOWTEPIKWV KOI [ ~WT [ PI KWV aVlooPPOTTII.i,)v , 11
Ouyyapia ulo8tT~aE aUOT~~a crawling peg. 0 ~~vlaioe; pu8~o~ UTTOTl~~crEwe; aTOclaKa ~ E IWe~ KE
ono 1,9% TOV Mapno 1995 O E 0,2% TOV ATTpiAlo 2001. ETTiollC;, r]100TllJia TT1TpETTorav va KUlJoiv ETOI
OE J.lia ~WV'l 2,5% vUpw O1TO lllv KEvrpIKr') oloAla8aivouaa IOOTIIJio .
To KOTWTt pW ax ~~ a TTapouOla~EI T~V E~tAl~~ T~e; laoTl~iae; TOU <ploplviou (fiorint) we; TTpOe; TO
ECU ( ~ t XPI TO .!IEKt~~PIO 1998) KOI TO Upw (aTTO TOV lavouaplo 1999. Ta aTOIXEia EivOi ~~vlaia KOI
aVo<pEpoVTOI OTO fEAoe; Ko8E lJ~va .
To Crawling Peg T~~ Ouyyapia~,
1995 - 2001
300
!i!'
OJ
U
W
250 .
>
0
200
.~
a.
0
150
100 L
1995
--- -.---- .- ~ -
1997
- --_ ..._-- -
1999
2001
H auvaMawaTlK~ TToAITIK~ ~O~e~aE va ~ElweEi 0 TTA~8wplcr~ o e; aTTo 2 7.5% TOV MapTio 1995 crE
10.3% TOV .!IE Kt~~PIO 1998.
ME TOV TTA'l8wPIOj..JO va oro9pOTTOIEiTOI yupw OTO 10%, lOV MO"io 2001 '1 K(VTPIK~ TpdTTE~a
TrtC; Ouyyapfac; dAAa~E OTPaTrjyIK~ . AVTi va 8ETEI OlOXa Via HI ouvaAAaVIJOTIK~ IOOT1IJia, tSETE OlOXa
Via TOV TTA~eWpla~O. TauToxpova, au~~crE TO opla T~e; ~wv~e; crE 15%.
KAaOcrlK~ TTEpiTTTWOIl OUOT~lJaTOC; TO orrofo <p8aOl: ora 6pla TOU . Km IOXUp~ [VO[I~'l CHI r)
ouvaAAaVIJOTIK~
T o crawling peg 1tEplOpii;El ta 1tEp18 w pla aCllolClECOC; amOvo ).l'lC; VO).llCl).lauoo1C; 7tOA.lHoo1<;
Kata. 1tapO ).lOlO ).IE ta Cl1JClTIt).la ta Clta8EPWV lClOU).I""V tp01tO. Ev Cl1JvtO).lta, a1tO TIl CITlY).Iij
1t01) a 1to <paCl ii;Etat to 1tOClOCltO TIle; 1)1tOT1).l~ClEOlC;, '1 KEVtPloo1 tpa.1tE!;a OEV ).I1topEi va E1tl
USE110 E1tt7tEOO ta1) EY)(Olp(01) 1tltOKlO1). B U 1tEtE Cl)(EtlKa. TIl Cluv8ijK11 lClOO1)Va).ltae; 1COV
E1tltaKtCOV ClTO KEq>UA.aLO 14.
01 Cl)(E1UCOi, O).lco<;, 1tEPlOPlCl).lOt EtVat hY01EPO a1)Cl1'lPo i. H KEvtPUo1"pa.1tE!;a ).I1tOp E(
va a A.AaSE110 1tOClOCltO 1)1tOtl).lijClECO C; ).IE KOCltO<; ).I1KpOtEPO Cl1tO 10 KOClW<; EYKataA.et'l' EOle;
Ka.1t0 Ul<; Clta8EPa.<; lClOtl).lta<;.
A.A.
Avt~O UAalOC;
23
Basket Peg.
To basket peg unotEA.El nup uA.A.uyJ\ tou adjustable peg KUl TOU craw ling peg. LE uUtO to
cr6aTll~U, 11 lcrOtt~ia KA.EWcOVEt(lI) crE EVU aTU 8 ~lcr~VO KuA.a8m ~EVWV vo~tcr~atwv KUl
Ott crE Kanolo cr1)YKEKPt~O lcrZUPO VO~lcr~U. To basket peg <YIlvtcrtamt yw. tcOpEe; Ot 0
noiee; E~nopEuOVmt ~ noA.A.e; aA.A.ee; KUl zpElasOVmt vu btutllPOUV tllV uvmywvtcrnKOtll
m tWV npo'iovtwv tOUe; Ott ~ovov we; npoe; m npolovm KanatUe; ClUYKEKpt~YT]e; tcOpUe;
uA.A.a we; npoe; tunpo"iovm oA.Ci>v tWV E~nOptKcOV taUe; Emlpwv.
Ano A.oytl(Jle; nA.Eupae;, TO ' basket peg' ~nopEI va ElVUl E~ lcrou crW8EPO ~ TO ' ad
justable peg' . LtllVnpa~ll, o~we;, OEVelvat.
Kat' apmv, at tcOpEe; Ol onoiee; avaKOtVcOVOuv 'basket peg' cruvft8we; KpataUV ~u
ClttKlj tT] cruv8ecrll tOU KaAa8 tou vO~tcr ~atwv. E1t1.nA.ov, ~Em~aA.A.ouv upKEta crutya
tOue; cr1JvtEA.eCltEe; ~uputllwe; Ka8E vo~icr~atae;, Ka8taTcOvme; OUClKOA.ll tllV EK"tl~ll Clll Tlle;
cr1JV8EcrEwe; TOU KaAa8lOU ano E~WTE plKOUe; napaTllPllTEe;. ne; anOtEAEcr~a, Ot avaAutEe;
of:\! ~nopouv va KPlvouv Eav Ot napatllPOU~EvEe; anaYEe; Tlle; tcron~lae; avtaVaKA.oUv ~E
W~OA.e; TWV lcron~tcOv TWV vO~tcr~<itWV TOU KaA.a8tou iI uA.A.ayJ\ taU KaA.a8lOU iI a
K6~11 Kat EYKaTaA.etl]l1l tau crucrTiI ~atoe;.
Kat aUTO ElVUt Et ~apoe; Tlle; Ot!lq><ivElae; Kat Tll e; U~to1t1.crtlae; TOU (j1)crtiI~atoe;. Mt
KPOtEPll a~101t1.aTia crll~alvEt ~yaA.UTEPll mClll ano TOUe; E1tf:VOUTEe; Kat ~tKPOtEPll 1t1.Ba
votllW E1t1.PtffiClEwe; tOu cruCln'l~aTOe;.
AKO~ll Kat aT1]v nEplm;wcrll onou at tcOpEe; avaKatVcOVoUv tT] cr1iv8ecrll TOU KaAa
BlOU, TO ClUYKEKPt~VO cr6crtll~ Of:\! EtEl Tll Ot!lq>avEta Kat Tllv KaBap6Tllw/clarity tau
anAou peg. LE KaBE anuyJ\ tlle; tcron~lae;, Ol avaA.UTEe; npEnEl va Kavouv UpKEtOUe; uno
A.oytcr~06e; npOKEt~VOU va E1t1.PE~UtcOcrouv on to cr1icrtT]~a Eq>a p~osEWt onwe; EtEt avu
KOlvw8EL
EK TWV npuy~atwv, A.omov, to 'basket peg' Elvat A.tyOtEPO Clw8EPO an6 TO 'adjust
ab le peg'.
Target Zone.
Ot Kf:VtplKEe; t pa1tEt;u; bEcr~uOvtat va napE~pouV crtT]v ayopa ClU
q>8acrEL KanO tO aVcOwTo iI Kat cOTatO OplO. Ocro
11 lcron~ia K1J~alvEwl ~EClU Clm opw. Tlle; scOVT]e;, Ol KEVTptKEe; TpanEt;Ee; bEY nap E ~palvouv.
ITapoucru'tsEmt napucrWttKa ClTO Clm~a 13.6, ~ EvU un08EttKO VO~tCl~a, ta No
Value tlle; Utopia. H KEVTptKlj Tpa1tEt;a tlle; Utopia napE~palvEl va ClT11P~E l to NoValue
omv 11 lcrOtt~ia TdVEt va ~1[E pacrEt TO aVcOTEpo OptO tT]e; scOVT]e;, OTUV, OllA.abiI, TeivEt va
unOtt~1l8d nEptcrcroTEPo ano Tllv tcron~ia :ji [NV/]. EnlClT]<;, napE~pa(VEt va E~acr8Evft
crEt TO NV (CltT]P~Et to EUpcO) oTav tdvEt vu ~EnEp<icrEt ta KUTcOTEPOOPlO Tlle; scOVT]e; OWV,
ollAabiI, TdvEt va avan~1l8ei nEptClcroTEPo uno tT] v lcron~ia s'- (NV/]. Lne; napE~p<i
ClEll;, 11 EKT ~noPel va cruVE1t1.KOUpei tT]v KEvtptKlj tp<inEsu tlle; Utopia.
LE auto TO
cr6crTll~a,
vanay~aToe;
omv 11
ovo~aClTtKlj lcron~ia
IcroTllJia
NV/
naptlJ ~ocrl)
Via
S" [N V/ ] i -- -- --i-- - -- - -
SL [NV/E] I -- - - -- - - - - -'l- -
nopt )Jj3aoll Via
OT~PI~I) TaU EuptiJ
Xp6""
24
1Ol"~gD9ihL03
sz
'"sOIwEu,(a
Ql
'Z89 - 699 'dd ' 1661 jsnjjny 's 'oN ' 01 '101\ 'SO!UlOU00'3 fo IvuJlwr "In/Jvn(j
PUE souoZ lojjJ~l", u~wjjnl)! In~d n01 oded\, 9"'DDD'(> 01 3131Lnf[ ,
'lE~ ojju~4ox3
0lX>'(~,"3)I - Xlpi oAOX1 00 aXXlW 11lX 5~aoA Xllmil.taX ')13.o ~lI a3gn)I
NVI
IOOTllJfo
NVI
YTToTl~OJal
rJ
IOOTI)Jio
KEVTPIK~ IOOTll.lia ,
S" [NVI]
S" [NYI]
5" [N V11
S' [N VI]
I
xpOlIO<;
xp611O<;
NV/
NV/
IOGnlJia
IOOTl\Jio
S" [NVIj
S" [N V/j
l\IWPUV0I.IVrJ <WVI1
1.1 OW8Ep6 KOTWTOTO aplo .
5"[NVIj
<wv'1 1.1
I.IETo!3aM0I.lEva Ol.llPon:pa TO 6plO .
~1upuv6lJ (V'1
S' [NVI]
Managed Float.
H- CluvaA1.aYflatlKt] lClOtlflia arrocpaClit;tat arro ttJ; OUVUfltJ; tllS ayopus, tllOl, tTlv 7l:pO
arpopa Kat 111 i;r,TrfrJl'f CltllV ayopu CluvaA1.uYflatos. 'OClO Kal va to tlSAav, Ol KvtPlKES
>
tpurrsS, Kat Ol ApX:S yvucotpa, ov flrropouV va Err~ulliuv ClttJ; ayopEs tTlv E71:l8Uflll
ttl yta aUtES lClOtlflia.
To fl6vo rrou flrropouv va KUVOUV Ol KEvtpUCES tPUrrESES Elval va rrapEfl~aivouv CltTIV
ayopu CluvaA1.uYflatOS rrpoClrraSWvtas va E"11PEUClOUV tTlv rrpoClcpopu Kat tll StltTIClll. Na
au~uvouv tTl stltllClll tOU vOfliClflatOS 10 orroio Elval aClSVECltEPO arr6 6tl Sa E71:l8uflOU
Clav, Kat 111V rrpoClcpopU tOU vOfliClflatOS 10 orroia ELVat lClXUp6tpo.
Lt6xoS, ClUvtj8ooS, ElVat 11 arrotporrtj flEYUAOOV flEm~oAwv tOOV tClOtlfltWV. Lrravt6t
pa, 11 rrltEU~l1 KUrrOtaS ClUYKEKPtfl"11S lClOtlfllas
'Orroos Kat CltllV rrEpmtOOClll lOU target zone, Ot rrapfl~UClE tJ; Y[VOVtat fl tpEls tp6
rrous: Ayopu tou vOfliClflatOS otav urrotlflUtat Kal rrWAllC!1j otav aVatlflUml, flm~OAtl
tOOV Errn01QOOV Kat rrpoClrru8Eta "11PWClflOU tOOV rrpoClOOKtWV tTlS ayopus yta tTl flAAO
vtuctltClotlflta.
LtllV rrEpmOOCllI 6rrou Ot APXES rrpoClrra80uv va Clnlp~ouv flia tClOtlflta tllV orroia Ot
ayopES 8CilPOUV urrEptlflllfl"11 tl UrrOtlfl1lfti:v1j, Kat Ol tpEtJ; tp6rrOl EXOUV ppax6~ta arro
tAClflam. E71:lCltpEcpoVtas CltO rrapUOEtyflU tTlS Utopia, ta CluvaA1.aYflanKu arrOeflata
tTlS xwpas Elvat rrplOplClflva Kat OV ea OtaPKEClOUV Erri rroAD yta tTlV ayopu lOU No
Value.
LtTlV 71:Epi71:tOOClll tTlS rrapflPuClEOOS fl XPtlClll tooV E71:ltOKlwV, m u\jfT\A6tpa 71:lt6Kta,
ta orroia arranoDvtat yta tll <m\P~l1 tOU NoValue, ival EtJ; ~uPOS tTlS OlKovOfltKt]S ava
rrtD~OOS (avuAuC!1j fl to urr60etyflU ISILM). AUt6 rrepLOpit;El tTl xpOVlKt] OlUPKEta XPtl
Clews lOUS
AA A vt~ouA6. lO<;
26
Oaov OE o.<pOpU aTOV E1O]pECla!J.0 1WV 1[pOaOOKMV yla TIl !J.EAA.oV1lIC1i taou!J.ia, EUV Ot
UyOpEe; 1[tO"1EUOUV OU TO NoValue ElVUt U1[EPU!J.'l!J.f.VO, Ot 1[pOa1[U8EtEe; 1WV APXcOv vu
1[Eiaouv AU OEV Su U1[OU!J.'lSEi Elvo.t OUaKOA.o VU ivut E1[t1UXElc;. KUl, 1[UV1We;, oxt ytU 1[0
AD xpovo. l1Eptcra01EpEe; 4mO!J.f.pEtEe;, Kat 1[UA.!, 0"10 .vSE10 14.9.
Pure Floal
LE UutO 10 crUa111!J.u 11 KEV1ptKT'\ tpU1[E~U OEV 1[UPE!J.~o.ivEt KUSOA.ou aUlv uyopu auvuA
A.ciY!J.UlOe;, U<pT]VOV1Ue; u e; ouvu!J.Et; TIle; 1[poa<popue; Ko.t TIle; ~11"T]aEWe; vu 1[poaotOpiaouv
TIl (JUVUA.A.uY!J.uuKT'\ taon!J.ia.
13.6.
TcrOTl!liu
1879
1914
Kuv6vac;
'tou XpUCiO\) ,
Lm8Eps
Ia01t~lES
1945
A'&B'
naYKoa~lOC;
n6AE~oC;,
1973
KUlla'v 6~evES IcroTt~(EC;,
LucrTiWa
Bretton Woods,
Adjustable Peg
nEP(OOOC;
MEa01[OAEIlOU
OlKOVOlllKT] DOAttlK!!
np\Op~(J~oi 010
'OX'
i'>18vC; E~llOPlO
LUVaAA.awanKOi
DEPlOPlcr~oi
Kpatucos
napE~Doncrlloe;
, -
'OXl
Nat
'OX'
NOl
DEpalt.op'"
~i",a'1
OlV(OVIKot
& ITOAtrlKOl
'OX'
Nw
Nat
DEPIOPlcrIlO[
Tu EV A.Oyw auatT]!J.(l1u UVU<pEPOV1Ul one; KiJptEe; pto!J.llXUVtKe; XOOp<;. Onwe; 1[POKU1[1l
(mo "'lV UVUAU01l 010 1[UPOV KUt atu E1[O!J.EVU lpia KE<pUA.aIa, Kat aUvO'l'iI;E1Ut 0TIlv EVO
"11"U 17.5 "Llo.SEpEe; Kat MEtU~Alltte; laon!J.iEc; - LUYKPtttKU 1140vEKtT]IlU1U", Ot !J.yu
4e; aE otKOVO!J.tKO J.ttyEBoe; ~tOwlXo.VtKte; XOOpEe; EXOUV t'lV EUXEpEtU EntAoYT]e; auatT]!J.Ul0e;
taOnluOOv. Ot U1[OAOtnEe; XOOpEe;, UVEmUY!J.EVEe; Kat !J.'l, OXt: To CVOEt1CVUO!J.Evo yt' UutEe;
crUO"1'l!J.u E/;UptUto.t U1[O ne; EntAoYEe; tWV 1[pOOlWV xwpOOv.
l1pmpEXOVtUe;, KU1[OtU unO 10. auatT]!J.U1U, 61[we; to LuaTIl!J.u Bretton Woods Kat'l
O.N.E., T]lUV a E !J.EyuAo ~USIlO -KuSon OEV AEtl0upY'lao.V 1[UV1U crU!J.<pwvu !J.E 10V UPXtKO
,. aXEOlaa!J.0-(J.1[01E4a!J.u EU<pUOUe; aXEolua!J.oD, alU 1[Auimu otE8vODC; O"UvEpyuaiue;. f\A
AU, onwc; 0 Kuvovue; tOU Xpuaou (Gold Standard), 1[POEKU'I'UV U1[O KEKtll!J.f.V'1 mxU1'l
m. TEAOc;, KU1[OIa UAA.a, 01[(f)S m auatT]!J.ulu !J.EtU~AlltOOv toOnl.l.tOOv !J.EtU tOY A' l1aYKo
a!J.to f10 4!J.0 Kat !J.EtU TIlV KaluppEu01llOU 'Bretton Woods', 1[poT]A8av a1[o TIlV 1[iE01l
"troy
YEyov61COV.
A.A.
AvtCOUA(ho~
27
AA
Avt~OUNhoc;
28
OA.U 1:U uVOltEP<O 1tl~~atWvouv On 11 otKOV0 I11~ AOYl~ ov aMCtI;lI1 tllv 1tCtpoao tOU
xravou. H aE avacpopcl ae am;a Ka'tOltEpOl elCJllYl1:at on aMCtl;ouv ~ovo Ot auVe~KeS U1tO
ttc; 01t0lS A.ettOupyei. Me CtMa AOyta, 11 OtKOVO~I~ AOyt~ elVUt aLUxroVl~ r
aUat~l1UtOS
auvo'Vii;OvrUl atOv
29
nivaKac; 13.3. Kav6vac; TOU Xpuaou - Kupla 8Ea~IKa & AmouPVIKa XapaKT~plaTIKa
I. Itu8Epij avtaXlcaK1:1Kij oX~o'l HOV VO)llO)l(lTOlV ~Vavt1 TOU xpuoou. AUTo lo08uva)lou
oE ).I.E Otu8EpEe; b1).I.EPEic; oVO)laonKee; 100n)lu:e; ).I.ETa~U OAOlV TOlV VO)llO)l(lTOlV (Eq>ap
)loyij TOlV TP1YOlV1KWV 100n)llWv TOU Ev8ETOU 13.1).
2. EActi8EP'l ).I.ETaTpOml EYXOlPiou vO)lto)laWe; OE xpuoo.
3. KaAUIjI'l wu KU<A.Oq>0pOUVTOe; xpij)laTOe; )lE xpuoo.
4. EActi8EP'l bw.ouVOPillKij KtYllO'l EnvbunKwv KEq>aAatOlv. Ouo1aonKo., bv UmlPXav
ouvaA.A.aY)lanKOt np10p10)lOt (pAEnETE "lV Ev6T'ltu "M1Kpij Xwpa - EltEKTaOEle;"),
onOle; bEV Ultijpxav Ka1lt EplOp10)lOt onc; E~aYOlYEe; Kctl ElOaYOlyee; xpuoou.
5. EAEU8EP'l KtYllOll ayaewv Kctl U"'lPWtWv. 6EV UmlPXav nEplOp10)lOt OTO 8lE8vt<; E
)lnOp10.
'HTav Eva a~lOltlOTO OU0"l)lct 100n)llWv, OE tva q>tAEA.cUeEpO OlKOVO)llKO 1tEp,~aA.A.ov.
KaTa T'l b1apKEtO WU, UmlP~E )lEYaA'l aVa7ITU~'l TOU blE8voue; E)l1tOptOU aA.A.a Ka1 "lS K1
vijOEOle; blE8vwv EnEvbunKwv KEq>aAaiwv. EvbE1KnKa auTije; T'le; avanW~EOlS civctl on tu
nEp10uOlaKa OTOlXEta 010 E~OlTEP1KO Eq>8aoav TO 1914 010 20% TOU ltaYKOO)ltOU AEIT,
ano )lOAIL; 7% TO 1870.
EntOlle;, ,0 EUE1)lfla TOU 100i;uytou TPEXOUOWV ouvaA.A.aymv TOlV ).I.EyaAOlv OlKOVO)ll
Ka XOlpWV, Ka1 0' aV1:iOT01XES pOEe; E1tVbUnKWV Kq>aAaiOlV Y1a ''l XP'l)laT086"loij 'OU,
OUXVa Eq>8avav TO 5% TOU AEIT. 'Eva TET010 EUE1)l)la oij)lEpa, ltapa "lv ).I.EyaA'l avamu
~'l ,00V blE8vwv xp'l)latuyopwv Kctl T'lV ouv auTij )lEyaAuTEP'l WKOAta XP'l)laT080TijoEwe;
TOU, eEOlpcitu1npoaYYEAOe; ouvaA.A.ay)lanKl'je; KpioEOle;. TOTE A.c1TOUPYOUOE an01:EAEO)la
nKa Evas aUTO)laTOe; Otu8EpOn01TlnKOe; )l'lxaVlO)lOS 0 ono[oe; Ob'lYOUOE OE 100ppOnta 1:0
100i;010 TPEXOUOWV ouvaUaywv xOlpic; UltO'{)l'lO'l ,OU VO)ltO)laTOe; TOlV AA.c1)l)lanKWv
XOlpWV.
61Kaiws, 'Inpiobos TOU Kavova TOU XpUOOU xapaK"lpiOT'lK Ole; 11 ltPW"lnpio
bOe; naYKOO)l1OnOlijoOle;. H 8EU'PTl civa1 aUTij T'lV OltOta bl<iyou).I.E ,wpa, evav a1wva )lE
,a "lv npWT'l.
H A.cnoupyta ,ou aUTO)laTOu oTa8pon01'lnKOu )l'lxaV10)lOu )lnopEt va ouvoljl10eci
Ole; E~ije;: Ins xwpe; )lE EAA.c1)l)la ow 100i;uy1O Tpxouomv ouvaA.A.aywv )llOlvOtuV Evbo
YEVWe; TI VO)llO)lanKij KUKAOq>opta. AUTO, OltOle; aVaAUETctl OTO Ev8ETO 13.6, Ob'lYOUO O
mwoTl TOlV YXOlpiwv n)lwv, bTlA.abij avtlltA'l80lP10)l0, TI onoia Ka81mouo Ta y;(mpw.
ItP1000TPO aVtuYOlv10nKa. M XPijOll "le; SlOWOEOle; (13.2), Ob'lYOUOE O npaY)la,lKij
avaTi)l'lo'l. Avt10TOixOle;, OTIL; xwpe; )lE n4ovao)la 010 100i;uylO TPEXOUOWV ouvaA.A.a
ywv, npoKaALTo npay)lanKl'j aVaTt)lTlo'l. MEOOl b ,00V )lEtu~OAWV TTIS aVtuYOlv,onKOT'l
Tae; npxo,av ~OlTP1Kl'j 100PP01ria: ,0 EA.A.E1)l)lanKO 100i;uylO TPXouowv ouvaAAaywv
~AnwVOtuV, ,0 nA.coVaO)lanKO )lElOlVOTUV.
'O)lOlS, TI nhu~TI TTle; ~OlTEP1KijS 100ppOntas ltlTUyxavoTav OE ~apoe; "lS WOlTP1
Kije; 100ppoltias, "'lPai;ovtae; o"lv ltopEia buoavaAoya TIL; a08VEO,pe; OlKOVO)llKEe;
Ta~IL;. 1:UYKEKp1)lEva, 'l )lEiw011 TOlV n)lWV ObTlYOUO O )lE[0l0'l TOlV )l108wv. 1: aV1:i8w'l
)lE oij)lpa, 'l EAA.c1IjlTl 10XUPWV pyanKwv OOl)laTEiwv Ka1 OOOillAlOnKWV - pyanKwv
KO)l)laTOlV Ka8'OTouOE q>lKTij TTIV ltpOe; tu KaTOl EUEA~ta TOlV n)lWv.
'Evac; aUo EpyaA.ctO yill T'lV altOKaTamaOll "le; ,ooppontae; 01:0 100i;uy1O TPEXOUOWV
ouvaUaywv ijtuV Ta E1tnOK1a ,00V KEV,P1KWV TpUltEi;wv. 'Omv m OE XPUOO alt08E)lam
)lEtWvOV1:av, 01 KEvtp1KEe; ,paltEi;ES au~avav 'Ta EltlTOci tOue;. TOlOUTOtpOnOle;, Ta npo
OEAKUO)lEva E1tEvbUHKa KEq>aAa1a XP'l)lctTObOTOUoav TO EAA.c1)l)la TOU 100i;uyiou ,PEXOU
OWV OUVaAA.ayWv Ka1 altoq>wyomv TI EKpOij xpUOoU. Ka1 AUTOupyouoav oTa8Ep0ltOlTln
_Ka. 'O)lOle;, 'l aU~TloTl TOlV EltlTOKiwv Ob'lYOUOE O )lEtOlOll TOlV ltlmWOEOlV Kat, A6yOl au
Tijs, oE )lEtOlO'l TTle; napayOlyije; Ka1 au~'l0'l TTle; aVEpy[ae;, E"'lPE<iI;Ovtae; 8uoavaAoya Ka'
OE auTij T'lV nEpimOlOll HS ao8EVEOTEpEe; OlKOVO)llKEe; '~E'S.
A.A. AV-rCOUMTOC;
30
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lJYo. ',?XOlL3 S3d3~0~"3AlJnrl 30 SOWri\tWClD (lO:>llwrimrioA '(l0"8319 ClOl mlll9d38lJW
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1919 - 1939.
H nepioooS oun] XWpU;ETaL O'e TpeiS unonePI600u<;: TllV nepiooo TWV /.ITa~AllTwv 1000n
)1tWV, an6 TO TEAOS TOU nOA)10U )1EXPI TO 1926 - 6TaV 01 Kilpl<; pl0)111xaVlKE<; XWpeS elxov
e1!lO'TpE",El mov Kav6vo TOU XpuO'Oli. An6 TO 1926 EWS TO J 931, OTaV 11 eYKOTaAel"'l1
TOU Kavova on6 TO H.B. 0'11)10TOOOTIjO'e Kat TO TEAOS TllS npoO'na8elOS e1!lO'TpO,!>1,!S O'TO
npo TOU nOA)10U O'1imll)10. KOI on6 TO 1931 )1EXPI TO I;EO'nOO')10 TOU B ' TIaYKoO')1iou TIo
AE)10U, OTaV e1!lKpaTIjO'e miO'TIj)1a eAEYX6)1eVWV Oilll(1J)1avO'EWV /.1 KilPlO XapolCTllplO'nK6
n <; aVTaYWVlO'HKE<; UnOH)1ijaElS, TOU<; nePWplO')101i<; O'TO 0l8vE<; e)1nOplO Kal Ta OlEl1vij
enevouHKa Ke<j>aAaill.
H npOnOAE)11Ki] 1O'0pponio eiXe X08e ~ xwpi<; OK6)111 )1iO VEa vo EXel ppe8et. TllV eU
peall TllS VEOS laoppoma. ouaXEPOlVOV OlnOAtnKE<; Kat KOlVWVlKES el;eAil,CtI; 01 onou:<;, /.1
TIj aElpa TOU<;, TP0<j>oooTOuaav TIjv aO'Ta8ij 0IKOV0)11Ki] 1000pponio ae EVO <j>auAo KilKAO.
TIepanEpw, KOl11 0IKOV0)11Ki] 8ewplO OeV ijTOV O'e 8E<>1"\ OK0)111 vanpoTeiVel AElTOUPYlKE<;
AUO'etl;.
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TO<;, TOU YVWO'TOU W<; 1:uO'TIj)10 Bretton Woods.
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EXOUV )leTapAllTE<; laOTl)lU:<;, onw<; Kat KaTa TIj OuipKela TOU nOAE)lOU.
o U"'l1AO<; nA118wpla)10<; KOTa Tll OlapKElO TOU nOA)lOU KaL TWV npWTWV )1eWnOAe
)11KWV Xp6vwv, OnOTEAEO')10 eV noUOt<; TllS XPll)10TOOOTijO'eW<; TWV )leyaAwv eAAEl)1)laTWV
TOU npOiinOAOYLa)lOU )le eKTUnWall xpij)lOTO<;, aneKAElE yill Ttl; neptaaOTepe<; XWpe<; TIjV
e1!laTpO<j>ij aTIjv npo TOU 1914 LaOH)llo EvaVTl TOU XPUO'OU. AUTO Oe taxue nOAU neplaO'O
TepO Yill Ttl; XWpe<; 01 onou:<; Enacrxov ano unepnA118wplO')l0. H e)lnElpia T11<; fep)10via<;,
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0')1015", eiVat XOpOKTllPlO'TIKi] .
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OilnOTe aUanl)laTO<; O'W8epwv LO'on)11wv. To KOO'TO<; 8a ijwv npaY)10nKi] OvaTl)111all Kal
onWAela OVToywvlaHK6TIjTa<; YLa ns XWpeS )1e TOV U"'l1AOTepo nA118wpla)10.
<hav EVO aUaTll)lO xopaKTIjpU;O).iEVo ono onoO'Ta8eponollluKi:<; pOES eneVOUTLKWV
Ke<j>OAaiwv. KaL O'e OUTO auvi:poAav Ol OIO<j>OpeUKi:<; nOAtnKE<; Kat KOlVWVlKES auv8ijKE<;
ae aXE<>1"\ )le Ttl; npLV TOV nOAE)10 e1!lKpOTOUO'eS, Ol onou:<; oev enETpenOV Tll AelTOUpyia
TOU O'Ta8eponOlllUKOU )ll1xaVla)10u: Mv Unf]pXe 11 eAaanKOTIjW O'TIjV oyopa epyOO'iO<;,
6nw<; )1eiwall TWV )llaeWV, OUTe Kat KOLVWVIKi] ovoxij O'TIjV avooo TIj<; OVePyiaS, yill TlIV
el;aAEL"'l1 evO<; eUei)l)lOTO<; O'TO ta01;uyw TpeXOUO'WV aUVOAAayWV.
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O'e OAE<; Ttl; KOlVWVlKES O)1aoe<; 011)1LOupyouae /.IyaAll nU:O'l1 O'TtI; ApXE<; vo owaouv /.IYO
AUTePll POPUTllW O'TllV eawTepLKi] laopponia ono OU O'TIjV eI;WTepLKi]. H OLKOVO)1LKi] nO
AmKi] apXLae VO Aa)lpaVEl un' O",IV TOUS ov8pwnous, 0XL)lOVO Ta v0)11a)lanKa )leyc811
AuTf] Oe 11nU:<>1"\ unovo/.lUe TIjv e)l1!lO'TOaUVT] TWV eneVOUTWV O'TIjv npoO'ij Awall TWV
APXwv O'e KanOtO LO'OU)1ia, )le onoTEAEO')lO Tll 011)lIOUPY10 ouro-e1!lPe~OLOU)levwv npoO'
OOKtWV unon)1ijO'eWS: <DO~OIi/.lVOl UnoTI)ll1<>1"\, Ol eneVOurES oneaupov W xpij)10Ta TOUS
ono TIj xw pa, npoKoAWVTa<; Ellel)1)10 aTO 1O'01;UYLO XPll)laTOOlKOV0)11KWV O'uvoUoywv
Kat, )ltaw ouroli, aTO Lao1;liylO nAllpW)1WV. Aur6, )le Tll O'elpa TOU, 0011YOUO'e O'e unOTt)111
<>1"\. Ttl; npoO'ooKiEs yill unOTt)ll1O'l1 eV10'XUe nepOlTEpW TO yeyovoS on 11 061;110'11 TWV e1!l
T01ciwv rill TllV unepaO'nlO'l1 TOU V0)11a)10TOS OeV ijwv nOAtnKa e<j>LKTij.
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01 Kiv i5uvOl
OUTO
o avayvwaT~, iaw, TTapOT~p~a" OTi TTapo~olol TTpop~~~aTla~oi UTTOPXOUV KOI a~~Epa Via TO 151(
8v~ ETTEV15UTlKO KE<pci~OIa Kal Via T~V avdVK~ ETTlPO~~, KOTTOIWV TTEp,op,a~wv aT~v Klv~a~ TOU,.
DAa aAAd~ouVE , KOI 6)..0 TO 10 10 I-ltVQUV..
'Eva O"IJOVTlKO rptinrUJo [ivat TTOU OTOIJOrouv 0 1 avaAoyiEC;: !JHa~u TaU O~IJpa, TTOU ~OUIJ lllV
OEUTEP~ TTEpi0150 T~, TTaVKoa~'OTTo,~aEw" KOI T~, TTEp,60ou ~ oTToia O~~aT0150T~aE TO Tt~O, T~,
TTpWT~" 0 XPOVO, 8a 15Ei~" ...
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A.A.
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35
'row E7nTOKiwV TWV H.TI.A .. 01 H.TI.A. Eixuv UTCOcrKA.tcrl TO H.B. ws KtvtpO TOU 016vouS
OlKOVO)llKOU crUcruli)lUTOS'
:EUYKEKPl.)ltVU, TCOMES XWPS dxav OUlPKli A.A.t)l)lam <ITO UJO~UYlO TPXOUcrwv cru
VuA.A.aywv, uv6.)lEcr6. TOUS Kat TO H.B., m OTCOia XP1WUTOOOTOUcrUV )l lcrPOES K<PUA.UtWV
UTCO TU; H.TI.A.. BUTCeT, TCEPU UTCO TU; KOlVWV1KES cruv6liKES, 0 TCOA.e)lOS eiX UUriSEl KUl
TU; OUCOVO)llKtS: 01 EupwTCulKES XWP S dxuv xacrEl Tllv uvmywvtcrnKli TOUS 6Ecrll crTO
SWTEP1KO, UTCO TU; H.TI.A. crTO ounKo ll)ltcr<pUtplO KUl Djv lUTCwvtu crTllv Acria. M6.A.lcrTU,
01 H.TI.A. UTCO XWPU-XPEWcrDjS TCplV TOV TCOA.e)lO tXE )lETa~A.1l6d cr xwpa-7n<ITwT1i. H O
Neu Y oPKll dX TCapEl Djv TCPWTOKU6EOpia UTCO TO Aovliivo ffi<; ol(tves XPll)laTo01KoVO)l1
KO Kevtpo .
H aUSl1<ll1 TWV A)lEplKaVlKwv 7nTOKlwV TO 1928, crTllV TCPOcrTC6.8lU DjS Fed vu )ll
WcrEl DjV KEPOOcrKOTCia crTll Wall Street, )lEiwcr OpU)lUnKa ns lcrPOtS K<paAuiwv crDjv
Eupw"l1 crTO OUTPO )llcrO TOU tTOUS. M TO A.A.el)l)lU TOU tcro~uyiou TPEXoucrwv vu )lllv
)lTCOPEt vu XPll)lUTooODj8ei, 01 EupwTCulKts XWP ES uvaYK6.crDjKUV va )lCullcrOUV Dj ~liDj<ll1,
TCPOKUA.WVTUS uUSllcrll DjS UVEpyiaS
Tllv KaT6.crm<ll1 XEtpOTEPUcr Kat 11 )lEtwcrll TWV ESUyWYwv TOUS Myw TllS ETCEA.80u
crllS ~a8ias u<pecrWS crTU; H.TI.A .. H ~1O)lllXUV1Kli TCupuywYli )leull611KE KUTa 48% )lEmsU
1929 Kat 1932, EVW 11 UVEpyia uuSli811KE crTO 25 %. Tu UvttcrTOlXU crT01Xiu ycu Tllv f p
)luviu limv 39% KU144%.
01 ETClA.OytS TWV XwpWV limv TCOA.U TCPlOPlcr)ltvS, Ka80n 11 crTu8pa UJon)lia OEV
limv crU)l~uTli )le ETCEKTunKli TCOA.lTlKli ETCKTanKli vO)llcr)lanKli TCoA.mKli 80. TCpOKaA.OucrE
EKpoli TCVOUnKWv K<pUA.uiwv, Myw TWV xa)lllAOTepwv TClTOKlWV . T11v O EKpoli 8u XE1
POTEPCUE KUl 11 TCpOcrooKia "IS u1tOn)llicrEws M yw Tll~ ).!Etc00ECO~ 'tCOV 0uvuAAuy).!un
KcOV mroe).!UtCOv.
KUTa E1PCOVia TllS TUrns, DjV KEPOOO"KOTCia crDj Wall Street dX 'tpo<pooo'tlicrl 11
)liwcrll TOlV A~LP1KUVlKWV ETClTOKlwV 'to 1924, O" )ltU TCPOcrTCU8lU UTCo ~1l8licrEws DjS
TCpocrTCU8EiaS ETCUJ'tpo<Plis TOU H.B . cr'tov Kavova TOU Xpucrou. Aoyw DjS )leullcrWS, E
TCEvomlKa KE<p<lA.aUl uPXUJuv vu ptouv 1tpOS TO H.B. (~UTC'tE <JXEnK6. Djv voDjm 14.3
H :EuVeJiKll Icroouva)lias 'twv Em'toKiww). H TCpoKA1l8eicru UVUTi)lllO"ll 'tllS cr'tEPA.lVUS E
nE'tPE'I' crTO H .B. VU TCtcr'tPE'I'El O"'tov Kuvovu )lE DjV TCpOTCOA.e)llKli lcrO'tl)lia DjS tvuvn
'tou xpucrou.
H OlKOVO)llKli A.oY1Kli, O)lWS, d VUl U)l[),.lKTTj. ETCEtlili TO TCtTCOO n)lwv TOU H.B . limv
cruYKplnK6. U'I'llM'tEpo UTCO TO TWV H.TI.A., cr crXEcrll )le 'to TCpOTCOA.e)lUCO, 11 1tpo 'tou TCO'
UlloU tcron)lia aTCo'tA.OucrE TCpay)lanKli ava'tt)lllcrll DjS cr'tEpA.tVas Kal a1tWA.EUl avmYWV1
cruKoDj'tas 'twv 1tpo16vtWV 'tou H.B .. H )lEiwcrll DjS ~11T1icrEWS yta m TCpo'i ovta DjS xwpas
1tPOKUA.ecrE aUs11crll DjS aVEpyias Kat EKpoli xpuO"ou. H 'tEA.emaia av6.YKacrE 'tllv Tp6.TCE~a
'tllS AyyA.iaS va auslicrn m ETClTOKt&. DjS ATCOTEA.W)la limv TCPUlTEPW avooos DjS avp
yias
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1931-1939. Exovms va TClAEs l ava)lwa crE OUO KaKa, DjV U'l'l1A.li avpyia av TCUPE)le
V crTO crucrDj)la Kal Djv u1tOTi)lll<ll1 av 'to EYKa'tEA.etTC, 'to H.B. EnEA.eS TO OEU'tEPO TOV
:Emt)l~plO 193 I. H UJTOpia E1tavaA.li<p811KE )lE'tD. aTCo 60 TCEpiTCOU Xp6VUl, )le DjV EiO"ooo
DjS crTEpA.lVas crtOV Mllxavtcr)lo :EuvaMaY)lUnKWV Icrou)lullV TO 1990 )l uTCpn)lll).!EVl]
lcron)lia, Kal'tllV ~ialll Eso06 'tllS 'tOY:ETC'tE)l~plO 1992 (~A.ETCTE crXEnKD. 'to Ev8eTO 16 .3).
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TTpo6toYEVPOIJIJvr) OTTO TO 1925. orav TO H.B. rnav~Aet OlOV Kav6vm> !-IE TrW TTPOTTOA.q.lIK~ IOOTl
_ !-lia VOVTI TOU xpucrou.
Eu8u<; e~ apx~<; , ~ Tpam<a T~<; AYYAia<; aVTI~eTl;lTTIOe TTpo~A~~a ~e T~V eKpo~ Xpuoou Kal
T~V ouvaKoAou8~ aTTwAla ouvaMoy~aTlKWV aTT08e~aTwv . ria T~ OlaT~p~O~ T~<; UlT(PTi~~~EV~<;
looTi~ia<;, ~ oTToia [lT~pEa<e apv~TiKci TO IOO<UYIO TPEXOUOWV ouvaMaywv, ~ Tpam<o ~aOl<oTOv
oe Io00~~OTa OTTO UTT~pwiE<; (TOUpIO~O<; , ampciAm<;, VaUTlAIOKE<; ~CTo(pOPE<;) Kal OTTO [lTEVQUOel<;
OTO e~WTeplKo (T6KOI, ~epia~aTO, KEPQ~).
Me opou<; AOYIOTlK~<; TOU loo<uyiou Tpexouawv ouvaMaywv, TO H.B . iXE EMI~~a OTO ICJO<U
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ao 8ta~ TOU we; lilE9vte; XP~~OTOOIKOVO~IKO KtVTpO.
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fl O~loTTloTia OEV ( ivOi UTT08EOfl ~ovo TWV TTp08EOEWV TWV
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TOA~~OOUV T~V Elo~oM , CEV OPKEi ~ rrpOeEO~ TWV KOTOiKWV T~e; va rrt oouv ~txple; EVO~ ~axO~EVal.
- XP(16~TOI KOI fl UTTap~fl TWV IJtowv TO oTToia lJ.TaTpETTOUV Tfl 9AI10'1 O( OUVarOT'1TO .
Ae; TO 8UIJOUVTOI 6oE.e; Kuf3E.pV~OEIe; Kal K(VTpIKe; TpaTTE~(e; 9tTOUV avttpiKTOUC; OTOxOUe; ovo
<pOPIKO IJE. TOV TTA'19wpIOIJO KOI T'1V aVO:TTTU~'1 , (ATTi~ovrae; 6ll tTOI eo OTTOKT~crOUV a~loTTloTio. Apya
~ yp~yopo, TO aVEtplKTO TWV OTOXWV eo UTTOOKChVEI TflV TTOAITIKr'! TOUe; KOI 80 T'1V OO'1y~aEI OE OOIE
~ooo . H E~TTEIpio TOU H.B., Toaa TO 1931000 KOI TO 1992, EivOi EUVAWTT~.
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'JCD3,/<,l11LD"D J~lnOhO)(1O JD)3XDl JI10991d3lL 30 J?,l(1),lD013
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-"9dlL013 J3";rri(J1t311 JCD1L9 'J3lhO,l"9dDlL J\l0)(IX01L3 30 11J13"()3d:>0 h3g D)OlLO U D)lLOddoo
-1hD U 11J")3 JUg<;'>I"(31138 'Jt;J8,d)(D1L3 )3H)1d01gDOdlL D" 0,,(0)(D<,l9 10")3 U 9dDU '''t;J,lDY.
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a", Ol APXE~, 1[po(ma8wvm~ va Emwxouv Ka1[OLOU~ (nOXOD~, Oll)lLOuPYouv KlVljtpa ytIJ.
KatVOtO)lU:~ tIS 01[0u:~ OEV )l1[OPODV va ElcEySODV.
To on to mJatll)la OtIJ.tllPYJ811KE E1[( ODO 1[EpmOU oEKaEtU:~ YJtav a1[01EAa)la!lj~ Ot
EevOD~ auvEpyaaia~ 11 o1[oia to atYJPtSt , Ka8w~ Kat to)V EUVOlKcOV OlKOVO)llKWV auvet,KWV
Kata til OlapKEta tll~ 1[tPlOOOD avaaUYKpotiJaEo)~ to)V Katt atpa)l)lEvO)v a1[O tOV 1[o4)l0
OLKOVO)luOV. DPOOOtUHKa, 1[avtO)~, a1[O tIS apxE~ !lj~ oEKaEtia~ tOD 1950, OWV to OtE
8VE~ vO)lta)lUnKO mJatll)lU OUatIJ.aHKa EAapE TllV aVo)tEpO) 1[EptypacpElaa AEltOUpYlKTJ
JlOPCPYJ, apxtcrav va E)lcpavU;Ovtat Ta 1[pwta 1[pOBAYJ)law.
To mJaTll)la KatEppEUat otav KatEppEUat 11 otE8yiJ~ aDvEPyaaia 11 o1[oia to atYJpt
t;E, EV )lEaO) tvtaaEo)~ TO)V tyytVWV a1[oaw8tpo1[otllnKwv 1[apayovtO)v. Tovit;ovta~, Jll't
AtaW, tllV 1[A1l8wpa yvwatO)v tIS 01[0u:~ 1[PE1[tl va EXtl Eva~ xpll)laToolKoVO)lIKo~ avaAu
tYJ~, 11 otE8yiJ~ auvtpyaaia KatEppEUat U1[O to Bap~ Kat 1[OAtnKcOV tmAOYcOV, C!!lj aKill
10U 1[OAE)lOU atO BtE!vU)l a10V 01[oio EiXav t)l1[A.uKEL ot H.D.A .. Ku8E O)lOtOTllta ).it 10
1[apov OEV ELvat Ka8oAou ruxaia.
Anp00YMIA METABOflHr THI I WTIMIAL ApXU;ovw~ a1[o 10V AiYOtEPO crlj)laVnKO a1[oaw8Epo1[011lHKO rrapuyovTU, to on Ol )lEWPOU~ Tll~ laOH)l(a~ E1[pmE va EYKPl80uv
a1[o 10 L'lNT EKaVE TU; XWPt~ a1[po8u).it~ va to KUVOUV. H Kacaypa<po).itVlj atO axiJ)la 13. 5
aw8EpotllW to)V oVO)laanKWV tcron)ltwv )lOVO ruxa(a OEV YJTav.
Euv ot 1[p08Ea EU; !O)V Apxwv ytIJ. u1[oti)lllcrlj yivovtav yvO)aTE~, 8a 1[poKa4 ito KEP
OOaKomKTJ m(8wll aw vO)lIa)la TIl~ xcOpa~. 01 APXE~ il'av U1[OxptO))lEVE~ va a1[OKAEiouv
Ku8t aKE'i'l1 Yla u1[01i)lllcrlj, yta va )ll1v Ev8appDvouV TIlv EKOYJAwall KEpOOaKOmKTJ~ Em
8EatO)~. LXETit;!at ).it TOV pOAo TO)V 1[pOaOOlClwv, 011:0)~ avaADEwl aW t11:0)lEVO KE<paA.ulo.
rtIJ. va Eival Em1UxiJ~ 11 u11:oTi)lllall, E1[PE11:E va atcpvloluaEI TOU~ 11:UVTt~, Kat Oil TOU~
KEpOOaK011:0U~, Kun TO o11:oio, O)lO)~, ouaXEpalvE 11 otaolKaaia EYKpiatO)~ a11:0 TO L'lNT.
DOAD a11:AU, Ot 11:p08EaEU; TO)V Apxwv EiVat ODaKOAO va 11:apa)ltlVOUv KpU<PE~ Mav aut;l1
TODVWt at 11:0AU).itAEL<; EmTp011:E~, Kat )lUAlaW OWV TO KiVljTpO TOU 1[poaO)mKOD KEPOOU~
Eival11:0AD laxuPO: 01 EXOvtE~ YVcOcrlj to)V 11:p08EatO)V TO)V APXcOv, 8a )l1[OpODaav va E
XOUV aiyoupo Kat xO)p~ KlVOUVO KEPO~, 11:O)A.cOvta~ 10 vO)lta)la TO 011:oia E11:POKEltO va
U11:OTI)l1l8ti.H va 11:apuaxouv Til aXEnKTJ 1[AllPocpopia, m8avov EVavtt avwUuy)la1O~, at
Tphou~.
'Eva~
uUo<; Myo<; yta Tllv a11:p08u)lia u11:on)lYJatO)~ YJtav 0 <poBo~ TaU 11:0AtnKQU KO
AVEsupTllTa a1[o TO EUV 11 U11:0t()lllall YJwv a11:apa(Tlltll Yla Tllv aVTl)lETwmall TO)V
EUtt)l)lUTO)V Tau laot;uy(ou 11:AllPO))lWV, Kal O)~ EK TaDTaU OIKatOA0Y'l)lEVlj --{lV oXt tmBt
BAll)lEVlj )It Baall tllV OIKOVO)lIKTJ AOytKTJ (PU 11:Tt TIS tvo!ljtt<; 2.4 Kat 17.4), ot EKUaTatE
KUBEpyiJatu; <P0BoVTouaav on iaO)<; tKAa)lBavomv a11:O TO KOIVO O)~ Oll)lOOta 11:apaooxiJ
A.uV8aa)lEVlj~ OIKOVO)ltKTJ~ 11:0AtnKil<;. AUto<; 0 <poPo~ YJWV KOIVO<; ytIJ. H~ KUpEpyiJaEIS ).it
yliAo)V Kat )ltKPWVXO)pWv.
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1953 Kat I:
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1985
TIC; aUVWlJoTIKEC; auve~KC; 01 oTToiEC; rrporwouvTov TWV UTTOTl~~awv Tile; rrrplooou TOU 'Bretton
Woods' mplypa<pCl EuyAwTTa tvac; aTTo TOUC; TTpwravwvlaTtc; T~C; EM~VIK~C; TTOAITIK~C; aK~v~c; T~C;
oEKaETiac; TOU 1950, a LTTUpiOwv MapKE~iv~C; , aTOV TpiTO TO~O TOU tpvou TOU Luvxpovn nOAlTlKD 1
A.A.
AVT~ouMTOC;
41
OIKaV
Mia aAA~ tvoEI~~ aTToTEAEi TO KaTw81 aTTO(maa~a aTTo TOV tVKUPO OlKOVOJilK6 Taxuop6Jio:
Av TrOPE1 KOVEiC; ~[p orroorao'l OTTO TO rrpdYIJOTO, TI IVai, TI OTTOTEAEi '1 UTTOTilJ'lotl lOU 1953; riOT!
aUVEXWC; ETTOVEPXETOI orrlv ETTlKOIPOTrJTO ; rlOTi 6Aol Trw 8U~OUVTOI ~/KOI H1V ETTlKOAOUVTOI ;
H orrOVTr,Or] EivOI 6TI ETTPOKElTO Yla rrJv TIlO ETTITUXrIlJV'1 Kivrj0'l oro8EpoTTOiflO'l<; (.Iiae; TToAuTOAOI
- VI' aUTO KOI TTptml TTavra va ~V~~ovEUEral 0 POAO<; TOU r . KapTaA~, TTOU
TTpOEToi~aaE TO toa cpo<; ~E 0lap8pwTlKO ~tTpa , TTPoroU ~ aTpocp~ T~<; TTOAITIK~<; 'PtPEI aTO TT~OOAIO
TOV LTT. MapKE<iv~ , 0 OTToio<; tKavE T~V TAIK~ Kiv~arr--, TTOU T~<; TTpoatowaE ~ovaoIK~ avaTTTU~IO
K~ op~~ . MEplKa xpovla OPVOTEPO OTTO T~ UTTOTi~~a~ TOU 1953, ~ EAA~VIK~ olKovo~io t<~aE T~ Xpu
a~ T~<; 15ETio.
YTToTi~~a~ T~<; l\pOX~~<; - 50 XPOVIO METa, OIKOVOJiIK6, TaxuopoJiO" aEA. 71 - 78.
TTWp~~tV~<; oIKovo~ia<;
01 auv8~KE<; UTTO TI<; oTToiE<; oK6~~ KOI a~~Epo E~ETa<ETOI TO EVOEXO WVO ~[TOPOA~<; T~<; ara8Epa<;
laoTl~io<; OVOOEIKvuovral OTTO T~V UTTOTi~~a~ T~<; opOX~~<; TO 1985, orav uTTouPV6<; E8vIK~<; OIKOVO
~ioe; ~rav 0 ~TtTTlTO TTpw8uTTOUPV6<; K. KwvarovTivo<; L~~iT~<; .
aN - 1
H QvciAuC'fl TOU npoJ3"~I-IOTOc.; N - I 90 yiVEI IJE avacpopa at QVOIJOOTIKEC; IOOTIl-liEC; KOI oro lao~u
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UTTapxouv N - 1 OIO'POPETIKt<; laoTl~i(e;. rio TTapaolv~a, EaV UTTapXOUV ouo XWP(<;, 01 H.n .A. KOI TO
H.B., UTTaPXI ~ovo ~ia laoTl~ia: T~<; Aipo<; tVOVTI TOU ooAopiou . Eov uTTapXI Kai TpiT~ xwpa, ~ 10
TTwvia , UTTapXOUV Duo IOOTllJiEe;: Tfle; Aipae; tvavTI TOU oOAapiou KOI TaU VIV tVOVTI TaU OoAopiou. H
looTljJia Tile; Aipae; VOVTI TaU Vltv TTPOKUTTTEI OTTO TIC; QUO TTpOrWOUlJVEC; (f3AE:TTUE 0XETIKO TO t.v8uo
13.1).
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TOUe; O(iKT<; 1, 2, ... N vo UTTO~~AWVOUV XWPE<;,
Eav 01 N-l Eixav auvoAIKO TTAEovoa~a , ( BP, + BP, + ... + BP,v-1) > 0, 01 H.n .A. 80 (ixov avavmaTl
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TWV H.n .A.. Ev oU~TO~ia, ~ mj~~o~ T~C; TTapaywy~c; TWV H.nA oo~y(i O( au~~o~ TWV (~aywywv
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Edv 01 UTToAOITTEC; XWPEC; OEV EiVaI 0IaT61~tvEc; va OEX90uv aUT~ T~V tvTOO~ TWV TTA~9wPI
OTlKWV TIlEOWV, EXOUV QUO ETTlAoytc;:: No npooop~6aouv TO !..IEiy~o HIe; OIKOVO~IK~<; TToAITIK~<; TOUe;
~E Tpono WaTt va ovmpE80uv 01 OVWTtpW ETTIIDWOEII), 8UOld~oVTOe; o~we; OTIlV TTopEia TOUe; OTO
xoue; HIe; OIKOVO!..lIK~C; Kal KOIVWVIK~<; TOUI) TToAITIK~I) , ~ va EYKowAi4JOUV TO cruoTrHJa.
LTlC; apxtc; TIC; oKaniac; TOU 1970, aVTI~nwTTi~ovTOC; aUT~ T~V ETTIAoy~, ETTtAE~av T~ OEUTp~. Tovi
~OVTQC; , ~dAIOTO , TO aTTp6~AETTTO TWV XP~~OTOOIKOVO~IKWV E~(M~EWV Kal T~V OTV~ oxto~ ~(TO~U
OIKovo!..lial) Kal TToAITIK~I), TIlv anpo8u!..Ifa TWV urroAoirrwv xwpwv va aKoAou8~oouv Trlv 1TKTaTlK~
OIKOVO~IK~ TToAITIK~ TWV H.n.A. EV[OXUE TO on r] TEAi:uwia Ka80pl(6rav EV noMoic; ono TIS avdYKEC;
TaU TToA E~OU OTO BITvcq..l. 'Evav nOAE!..Io OTOV anoia Eixov l..ITTAOKEi 01 H.n .A. ono TIC; apxtc; lrJ<; OE
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uvaA.u8'lKe, OtO Keq>ItA.UW t'lS vO!lla!lUnKits 1I0A.mKits, 01 KevtP1KES tpltlIei;eS emolcOKOuV
1I0UOUS UvtlKPOUOWvouS atoXOUS !le VU !lOVO oPYUVO1I0A.ltlKitS Ei; uvItYK11S, OEV !l"0
pouv VU emtuxouv OA.oUS TOUS atoxOUS, 8EtOUV lIPOtepatoUJteS KUl Suatlti;ouv KltlIOLOUS
atoxOUS aUJv emtEu~TJ twV lIpotePUlOnjtwV UutcOv.
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vtlKpOUO!tEvwv atoxwv Oq>elAc vu A.a!l~ItVel UlI' O'!'IV Kat tOUS atOXOus twV ulIOA.ollIWV
xwpcOv.
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!lIKitS 1I0A.ltLKits twV Rn.A.: To OpO~A.TJ!lU N - I oev EiXe yiVel1[pO~A.TJ!lU UKO!lTJ .
To npOBAHMA THr AIE0NOVr PEVHOTHTAL 'Htav tvu lIpO~A.TJ!lU uvaA.0Yo !lC TI1V 01
U8Wl!lotTJtU xpuaou atov KCtvovu tOU Xpuaou: H Ctu~'laTJ UJS vO!lta!lunKits KUKAO
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KevtPlKitS tpUlIEi;TJS aUJv EVOUJtU 15.2 "E~WtePlKit AVlaOppolIiu - Auto!lutoS L:tu8epo
1I0lTJnKOS MTJxuvta!l0S"). TIpoS tOu~o UlIatt;:ito 1[A.covua!lu ato auVOA.lKO laoi;uylO lIA.TJ
pW!lcOV taus To UVtiatOlXO EAA.cl!l!lU twV Rn.A. 8u lIPOKUA.OUae auppiKVWaTJ UJS VO!lI
a!lunK1\s KUKAOq>Op[US Kat UVtl1IA.TJ8wplanKEs auv81\Kes aUJv 1It:pi1ItwcrTJ 1I0U 01 H.TI.A.
Oev l\taV omte8u!lvCS VU tUlIcOaOUV 1It:plaaOtepU OOA.ltplD..
To lIpO~A.TJ!lU UutO t:1IlAu8'lKE EV!tEPEl W UJV e1[lAoyJ\ m auvuwY!lUtLKIt CtlI09t !lu
" ta va ;:ivUl ae O!lOA.oyu tOU A!lCPlKUVlKOU oTJ!loaiou. NUL !lCv TJ UU~TJaTJ UJS 0lt:9vouS
PWOtOt'ltCtS OCV ulIUltOUaE !lCiwaTJ UJS VO!lta!lUtLKits KUKAOq>OpiaS, uUIt 01 RTI.A. , q>u
atKcO tw Myw, OCV l\tuv 0IUtEgel~VES VU !lolplti;ouv tetOla xpEoypUq>U owpeltv. EmlIA.
OV, UlIl\PXE Kat to 'i'.iA.TJ!l!lU tOU Tpiq>q>lV, lIepi tOU o1[oiou yiVetUl A.OyOS KUtwtepw.
AlIltvtTJaTJ ato "pO~A.TJ!lU TIIS OlE9vouS pwatoUJtas l\mv TJ OTJ!lIOUpyia 1tA.A.WV !l0P
q>cOV auvUWY!lUnKcOV UlI08e!llttwv: twV Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) tou L'.NT. To
SDR ;:[vat EVU aUV8etLKO vO~la!lU to OlIoia UlIltPXel !lOVO ae A.oytatl.lCJ\ !lOpq>l\ !lov~, Os
43
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AUOl t ovlt;ouv on Yj av6.mu~Yj ouvE~aAA otYj ClUVaAAo.y~anKij CltaSEpotYjta, 011~lOUP
YWVTas olE8vffiS tU; KatUUYjAES K01VUlV1KEs Kat 7tOAtttKES ouv8liKES 01 07t01S litav a7ta
paitl]tES yta auTI]v.
AvayvUlplt;ovms 7tAEOV on Kal t o ClUOtYj~a ouvaUay~anKwv lOOn~tcDV Elval .EVOO
YEvtiS ~Eta~AYjtli, Kamvoou~ on Yj aAli8Eta Elvat Ka7tOU CltYj ~crTj. To tovtz;n Kal t o on
ClTYjV ouvaAAay~anKij aOTa8Ela tUlV 7tpffitUlV XPOVUlV alIo tYjv KatappwClYj TOU ' Bretton
Woods' CluvE~aAAav ta ~EylOta Yj YEV1KEU~EVYj ~aKp oo lKOVO~tKl] aCltu8na Yj 07tOUx aKO
Aou8YjOE tYjV 7tpffitYj 7tEtpEAa'(Kij KploYj. Z:Yj~avtlKO xapaKtYjplCluKo tllS litav a maOl~O
7tAYj8UlP10~OS (~AElIEtE ClXH1Ka tU; EVOtlltES 3.2 "H Avooos Kat IhffiClYj taU n A118UlPl
Cl~OU" Kal 6.1 " ElClaYUlyli" ).
A.A.
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46
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1 0110,,(,)11>3)1 - 1OlrlOi\OXlOOaX1OW mx
"
Ot )J.tKpOTpe; xrope; TlVOUV va npoooEvoUV TCt. vO)J.tO)J.Ct.Ta TOUe; O EVCt. Ct.no 1CI. K1lpt
a, OOAapto ij up6:> ouvij8we;, ij o KaAa6t vO)J.tO)J.atWV, Aoyw autrov, TO oUoT1j)J.a EXt xa
paKTI\ptoti we; 'Bretton Woods II ' ,
EnmAtov, Ot pOEe; ot8vrov 1l!;VOunKrov Kq>aACt.tWV 'XP'1)J.Ct.tOOOTOUV ta EAAl)J.)J.ata
lOU tcro1;uytOU tpXouorov ouvaAAayrov, mtpEnovrae; O )J.ta xropa va txt )J.yaAa Kat no
AUTij Mi)J.)J.a'w, Katt to onoto OtO nCt.pA8ov oV ij1Cl.V q>tKto: Ta f.lyaAa Mtll)J.UTCt.,
av ov avrtf.ltwnU;ovrav, OO'1youoav O OUVaAAaY)J.anKij KPt01l, Ano 111v apVl']ttKij
nAtupa, auto. 1CI. Kq>aAata anoTAouV Eva tcrXUpo KaVaAt )J.EOW tOU onolou OtatapaXEe;
ano 111 ot8vij otKOvo)J.ta Kat tte; Ot8vL; XP'1)J.a1Cl.yopEe; )J.nopouv va 1rTJpaOOUV )J.ia Ot
Kovo)J.la, )J.tKpij ij )J.yaA'1, KCt.t va unov0f.lUoouv t'1v otKOVO)J.tKij nOAmKij t'1e; (~AEnt
OXttKa t'1V VOt'1ta 14,5 "Iao1;uyto Xp'1)J.alOOtKOvO)J.tKrov LuvCt.AAayrov - I1poootoptOtt
KOt I1apayovte;") ,
H nopda rrpo<; Tl'lv Eupwrra'iKIJ NOlllollaTIKIJ 'EvWOll,
A,
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H nopia npoe; t'1v EupwnatKij NO)J.tcr)J.attKl] 'Evwo'1, '1 onoia KatEA'1C; 0111v wmywyi]
tOU Dpro Kat to KAlOw)J.a tWV toon)J.tcOv tWV vO)J.to)J.atWV tWV xwproV-)J.AcOV 111e; Evro
owe; tOY Javouapto 1999, iX apxtot nptv ano T1jV Katappu01l tOU 'Bretton Woods'.'
H apm tytV atO LU)J.POUAto Kopuq>ije; t'1e; tOtE EupwnatKije; OtKOVO)J.tKije; Evroowe;
(EOK), to 1969, H aXttKij nP01Cl.0'11lC1.poucrtaOt'1K tOY OKtroP pto 1970 Kat ut06tij6'1
K tOY Maptto 1971. 'Htav to 1lovo)J.U1;of.lVO Werner Report, ano TO ovo)J.a tOU Pierre
Werner, npw8unoupyou tOU AouE,)J.pouPYou onolOe; npoijopD T'1e; auvraKttKije; m
tponije;,
H npopAE'I''1 tOU Werner Report ylC/. o'1)J.toupyia otKOVO)J.tKije; Kat vO)J.ta)J.anKije; vro
OW<; )J.E'XPt to 1980 oV uAonotij8'1K, To aOta8Ee; ot8vtc; otKOVO)J.tKO nptpaUov, to 0
nolo 1ltOlVWa '1 ot8vije; uq>011 f.lta 111V nprot'1 ntpEAa'iKij Kpt01l to 1973, ov ij1Cl.V
UVOtKO yta t'1V npopAEn0f.lVl1 01Cl.OtaKij 0'1)J.toupyta tWV 8cr)J.rov Ot onoi.ot 8a nEtpnav
111V ut08E1110'1 ata8prov toon)J.trov f.ltCt.C;u tWV vO)J.to)J.atwv tWV xwprov-)J.AroV Kat v tE
AH t'1v taaywyi] Voe; KOWOU vO)J.la)J.UtOe; )J.taa O )J.ia OKatia, 6.v ij1Cl.V, ntcr'1e;, uvOt
KO yta tOY anattOUf.lvo auY'Xpovtcr)J.o 111e; otKoVO)J.tKije; nOAmKije;: Y no t'1v nLE01l t'1e; u
'l''1Aije; avpytae;, OAe; Ot xrope; OV iXav t'1v ilila anoq>acrtOttKoT1j1Cl. yta t'1v KatanoAt
)J.'1a'1 tOU nA'18wpta)J.ou,
H npoona8ta, 0)J.We;, Eyw, Eq>ap)J.o1;ovtae; tte; npovote; tOU Werner Report, tyw '1
npro111 npoana8ta a1Cl.8ponotijowe; tWV auvaUaY)J.Ct.ttKrov toon)J.trov tWV Eupwna'iKrov
vO)J.tcr)J.atWV )J. atoxo to upoe; OlC/.KU)J.avoroe; tOUe; va ivat )J.tKpOtpo ano TO avr(aTOtXO
tvaVTI tou OOAaplou, 'E)J.W ot'1 ~tpAtoypa'I'ia )J. TO ovo)J.a 'Snake in the tunnel', M He;
v AOYW taott)J.lc; va f.l1CI.~aUovrat ouyxpovta)J.tva t vavtt tau oOAaplou, '1 ypaq>tKij na
paatamj lOUe; we; npoe; to 'XP0vo t)J.Ota1; f.l q>(Ot (snake). Entoij O unijpx 1;roVl'] OlC/.KU
)J.avowe; EVaVtt tOU OOAaplou, '1 onota OT'1 ypaq>tKij napaataa'1 E)J.ota1; f.l tOUVEA, npo
EKU'I' t o unoKOptottKO,
To ' Snake in the tunnel ' OtijPKO )J.EXpt tOY Maptto tOU 1973, otav Ot Eupwna'iKEe;
xrope; anoq>aotcrav va aq>ijaouv ta vO)J.lo)J.ata lOUe; va KU)J.Uv80uv Au8pa Evavtt tOU
OOAaptOU, 'Etat Ef.lW to 'Snake' )J.ovo, AUa Kat auto iX npmttcOo'1 C;At.C;'1 Ka8roe;
111v npi.ooo 1973 - 1978 unijpE,av nollie; aUayEe; atl<; tcrOtt)J.LEe; f.ltaE,iJ t WVvO)J.ta)J.atWV
tWV au)J.f.ltxouarov xwprov Vro napaU'1Aa Kanote; xrope;, uno 111V nLEa'1 tWV avttKpOU
O)J.Evwv atOXwv 111e; OwtptKije; Kat t'1e; E,WtptKije; taopponiae;, q>uyav Kat navEPXo
vtav OtO aU(111)J.a,
To no)J.vo 0po01l)J.O ijtav '1 0'1)J.toupyia toU EupWnatKOU NO)J.tcr)J.anKou Luatij)J.U
> toe; (European Monetary System - OUvtO~LOypaq>ta EMS) tOY Maptto 1979, LtOXOt ijtav
'1 f.llwa'1 tWV ouvaUaY)J.attKrov OtaKU)J.avawv, '1 f.llWO'1 tOU tOt u'l''1AOU nA'18wpto)J.oU
(pMnt to Om~La 3,1) Kat '1 npotot)J.acria yta t'1V EupwnatKij vO)J.tcr)J.UnKij vonot'10'1.
S rlO )..Lia cruVKHKTt UAAO ~aLPttKit rropoucr(ucrTl IT\':; rropda.:; rrpo<; tr1V ONE, cruvtcrl(l-rat 10 ocU
TEpO K<jlOJ"UlO TOU PlPJ,,(OU International Financial Markets - Prices and Policies (Second Edition)
by Richard Levich, McGraw-Hili Irwin (2001).
AA AVT~OUA<X tOt;
48
""uo 1TIlA-cilVES TOD EMS ijmv TO European Currency Unit (cruvtOllOypU<pia ECU) KUt
cruvt0Jloypu
<pia ERM).
To ECU ijmv EVU KUAn8l}) 1:UlV vOJltOJlaTUlV 1:UlV XUlPWV-JlEA-WV 1:'lS EOK. c,V D
mlPSE OE <pDotKij JlOp<pij, Ku80Tt 1t01:E liEV KUKAo<pOP'louv vOJlloJ1Cl1:u ij KEpJlUm ECU, UA-
An JlOVO OE i..oytOTtKij. M1t0poUOE vu XP'l0tJl01tot'l8ei U1tO tlitWTES Kat E1ttXEtpijOEU; yta
Kam8EOEU; Kat TtJl0A-OyT)OEU;, Kat a1tO KEvtPtKES 1:pa1tE~ES UlS ODVUMUYJlaTtKa an08EJ1CI
1:a.
To ERM ij1:UV TO KUplO opyuvo ytU 1:'l lleiUlO'l TUlV ODvUMaYllaTtKWV liUlKUJlaVOE
Ul V. Ot ODIlJlE1:EXODOES XWPES liEOJlEUOvtaV va 1tEptoploouv 1:U; OUlKUJlaVOEU; 1:UlV vOJlt
OJlaTUlV t ODS OE Eva target zone JlE j)aO'l TO ECU. To cUpOS 1:'lS ~WV'lS yupUl ano 1:'lV KE
vtptKij tOOTtllla ijmv yta tU; nEptOOOTEPES XWPES 2,25%. ME E<papIlOyT) TUlV tptYUlvtKWV
tOOTtIltWV(Ev8EtO 13.1), Ot tOOTtJlleS tUlV vOJltOJlatUlV avO. liuo Enio'lS oxmU1ttJ;av ~WV'l'
>1S OU01:'lJ1Cl 01:a8EpWV ODotaOTtKa tOOTtJltWV EVeiXE tODS eyyEVE\<; anoOm8Ep01tOt'l
tUCOUS 1tapayOVtES tUlV np0'lY'l8EvtUlV cru01:'lllaTUlV 01:a8EpWV 100TtJltcilv.
'Evas EntnA.tov anoom8EpOnOt'lTtK6S 1tapaYOvtaS npOEKUIJIE OTljV npaS'l XUlpi<; vu
DnaPXEt OXETtKOS oXEliUlOJlOS: To rEPllavtK6 llaPKO avuoeix8'lKE TO vOlltOlla ava<popaS
t OD cruOtijJ1ClTOS. H Bundesbank, 'l KEvtptKij TpanE1;a 1:'lS rEPJluvias, nupElXE ta 0'llleio
ava<popaS yta T'l VOlltOllcmKij nOA-mKij t UlV D1tOA-OinUlv XUlpcilv.
""ElioJ.tYlls liE TljS anOO1:po<pijs 1:UlV rEPIlUVWV yUl TOY 1t)''leUlptOJlO, Ot DnOA-Ot1tES
XWPES ElC 1:UlV 1tpaYllaTUlV O<pEtA-a V va alCOA-OD8ijooDV T'lV aD01:'lpij avtt-1tA-'leUlptOTtKij
1tOA-mKij t'lS rEpJ1ClVtas. ~DYKEKptllva, E<XV 'l Bundesbank ausavE T(l E1ttt01ClJi "IS yta va
avttJlE1:UlnloEt tU; nA-'l8UlptOTtKE<; ntEOEU; OTlj r EpJla via, Ot DnOA-Ot1tES XWPES o<pEtAaV va
(lDSijooDV T(l Entt01ClJi TODS enlo'lS, npOKEtllvOD vct litaT'lP'leei 'l otCteEpa tOOTtllla VCtVTt
tOD llaPKOD lCat CtvEsap1:ijtUlS EaV ij1:CtV (l1[UPCti-r'lTlj.
DCtpa Tlj IiOJlW011 tUlV crullllETEXODOWV XUlpWV va EVCtPJlOVtOODV 1:11V OtlCOVOJltKij
1tOA-tTtKij tODS, WOtE vct IlEt(()eEt 'l CtvaylC'l CtMayijs 1:UlV KEVtptKWV tOOTtlltWV, 1:tOlS Ctvct
npooapJ.lOYS ijtCtV KUta KCttpOUS CtVCtYKCtleS. T'lV nEplolio 1979 - 1992 A.<lPctV xwpu 12
CtvCtnpooCtpJ.lOyES JlE Tlj cruvCtlvEO'l OA.c.ov 1:UlV XUlPWV-JlEA-WV t'lS EUPUl1tCttKijS EVWOEUlS
'EVOETO 13.13. H rUVO ' K
TOU
OV
Maastricht
urr6 Orll..lIOupyia/ou~~Tr"lcrfl f.l E: MOVTIK~ VOlJlaf.lOTlK~ tvwoll 6q>I,\ov va IKaVOTTOI~aouv TO TTEVT: Af.
AEn
3, nll~ewplo~6
~IKp6TEPO OTTO TOV ~too opo TWV TPIWV xwpwv~,"wv T~C; Evwo,wC; ~, TOV ~I
KpOTEPO TTII~eWpIO~6 ouv 1,5%
4. AnoOoorJ TWV I-l0KpoXpoviwv OfJoA6ywv lOU Of'II..locriou OE aplc I-lIKpOTEPO aTTO TOV !-lEae 6po
TWV avriorolXwv orroooaEWV rwv rplwv xwPWV ~E rov ~IKp6rEpo TTAtleWpla~6 auv 2%
5. LlIOT~p~O~ T~C; loaTl~ioc; OTO ERM xwpiC; UTTOTi~~o~ Yla ~"O XpOVIO.
AUOT~pd KOI TToII" OTTalT~TlKd YIO TIC; OUVe~K'C; TWV oPxwv T~C; ~ 'KaETiac; TOU
6~WC;, IOXUP~ OIKOVO~IK~ IIoYlK~.
1990
KPIT~PIO. Eixov,
H JlEyaA.UtEP'lllpOKA-'lD'l yta 1:0 EMS, OIlUlS, ijwv Ot lCptOEtS tUlV Et WV 1992 - 1993. ME
ta 1:'lV Ct1tOpptlJl'l1:'lS ~uveijlC'lS TOD Maastricht ano 1:OUS ""ctvoUS 1JI'l<PO<P0PODS TOY 10uvtO
1992, Ot KEpiiooKOnOt aPXtOav va 1tPOOOOKOUV on 'l ~\)v8ijlC'l tOUlS va Jl'lv EntKUpUlvoWV.
Eav 'l EOK EJlEVE JlE 1:0 EMS nEptoOO1:EPES uva1tpOOaplloys TWV KEVTptlCWV tOOTtlltWv
ijwv meCtvEs, tOUlS Kat E1tteUIl'lTES. ME T'lV npooliOKta OTt Ot tOOnllleS eu Jl1tOPOUOUv va
"Ctllisouv, at lCEplioolComKES EmeEOEtS EytVaV 0XEliov OiyoDpa 01:OtxT)JlUW (j)A.tnEtE TO
tv8EtO 16.2 "KEplioOKOntKES EmeeoEU; - ElC 1:OU Ao<pCtA-ouS;").
Tov ~EnTEIlPpto 1992 KEpiioOlComlCES Ent8EOEtS EKo'l A.W8'lKav EVaVtLOV 1:'lS OtEp)..L
vcts, 'l onota EylCCt1:EA.etIJlE t o EMS OtU; 16 LEmEJlPploD, Kat t'lS hOA-tiClis A-tpews, 'l onola
uno"rtij8ljlCE mu; 17 ~EmEJlPplou Kat 01:'l OUVEXEtCt eyJCatEA-EtIJlE to EMS. Ot ntEOEU; cru
VEXt01:'llCa v lCat to EnollEVO EtaS, IlE 8uIlCtW W vOlltollata t'lS raA-A-las, 101tavtas, No p
P'lylac;, Dop1:OyaA-tas Kat ~ou'lliias.
A.A.
AVT~OUACho <;
49
VK
at 1UtOe'4 J.l!:ullEh]KaV OTUV OlupuvEhjKav TU opta TIl, i;wVY\, Oe 15%, Kan TO orroio
rrpaKTtKa tOOOUVElJ.lOUOE J.l!: EYKaTUAEt\jll] TOU EMS Kat Ul09ETIlOl] J.l!:TUPAl]TWV tOOnJlullv.
l1apa TauTU, l] POUAl]crl] yta J.l!:yaAUTepl] OtKOVOJltKTj Evorroil]ol] UmlPXe Kat OOiJYl]OE
0TIlV OtKOVOJltKTj Kat No JlLOJlanlCl; 'EvCOOl] (ONE). Kat UmlPXe arro 1l]V rrpol]YOUJleVY\ Oe
KUnia, OTUV l] U\jIl]AiJ avepyia 0TIlv EupwITl] Kat 0 q>oPo, on Ot Eupuma'(KE, e1UXetpiJoe'4
OEV 9a JlrropOUoav va aVTUYCOVLOTOUV T'4 AJleptKaVtKE<; KCLt T'4ICLrrwvtKE, w9l]Oe TOU, Eu
pcorraiou, l]YETe, VCL e7l:l0ull~OUV errmlxuvol] TIl, OtaOtKCLcria, TIl, EupwrrCL'iK!j, OAOKAl]PW
OeW,. H rrpooooKia iJTav on l] eK TIl, OAoKAl]pWOeCO, EVTU"'1 TaU CLVTUYCOVtcr JlOU 9CL w
90UOe T'4 EupoorrCL"lKE, errtXetpl]Oe'4 VCL yivouv rrEpLOOOTepO CLVTUYOOVLOnKE, eKJlnCLAAEUO
JlEVE<; T'4 OtKOVOJlte, KAiJlCLKCL, KCLt q>UcrJlCLTO, OE ITCLvEUpoorrCL"lKo errirreOo. ErretoiJ, OJlCO"
TmOTE 8EV elVCLt xcopi<; KOcrTO" Jlia CLrro n, erri JlEPOU, rroAlHKE" l] KCLTapYlJOl] TWV ou
vCLUCLYJlanKWv rrepLOptOJlWV, K(Ll l] cruv CLmiJ aU~l]ol] Tl], KtviJOeCO, 81E9vwv erreV8mlKWv
Keq>CLACLicov, 8UOXEpCLLVe TOV moxo JleYCLAUTEPl], OUVCLAAoYJlCLTlKTj, oTagep<Yn]TU,.
To EMS CLVTtKUTUoTa9l]KE CLrr6 TIlV ONE TOV jCLvOUUptO 1999, 6TCLV etoiJX9l] TO EU
pw. LTIlV ONE, TO l1p6PAl]JlCL N - 1 e1UAUEhjKe !te TIlv xupaSl] TIl, VOJltOJlanKTj, rrOAt
TlKl'J, CLrro TIlv EUPooITCLoo; KEVTptKTj Tpurrei;a (EKT), l] orroia AaJlPUVEt urr' O\jlLV T'4 ouv
9iJKe, OE OAeS T'4 XciJPE,-J1EAl]. Xcopi<; aJlq>tpoAia, elVat pehiwOl] Evavn TOU EMS orrou
0TIlV rrpUSl] l] fepJlavtK"ij Bundesbank xapaoe TIl VOJltOJlanK"ij rroAlHK"ij, Jle PUOl] TIl, a
vUYKE, TIl, fePJlavia" Kat Ot UrrOAOtltE, XciJpe, eKOUOeS - UKOUOeS aKoAou90uoav.
To 8e ERM avnKaTUmuEhjKE arro TO ERM II TO orroio AeLToupyd 00, rrp09uA.aJ.lo,
Tl], ONE. 'OAES 01 VEeS XWpe,-JlEAl] TIlS Eupwrra"lK"ij, Evwoeco, rrpErret va OUJlJ.l!:TEXOUV,
eVW arraLTElTCLt VCL elval TaUAUXIOTOV 8uo XPOVtCL OTO ERM 1I rrplv yivouv JlEAl] Tl],
O.N.E..
50
rYNAMArMATlKEI: IWTIMIEL............................................................................................. 1
13.4 nAHSOPlrMDr KAI METABOAH THr ONOMAHIKHr IWTIMIAL ............ ... .. ... .. .............. 12
rYNAMArMATIKEI: II:OTIMIEL..................................................................... 1
................... ................. I
Eq)Qp~oy~ 13.1. MnaTpoTT~ TWV IOOTI~lti.lV ~( T~V ATTI-~ Mt6000 TWV T PI!.0V .
...4
.. 5
T'IS O.N.E.
.... ...........
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.. .... 11
Lx~~a
13.1. 01 Luval-l-awaTlKts
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13.3. Mna~oM
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.. .. .. 14
.. ... 14
'Dollarization' . .... ...... ...... . .... .. .... ...... .. ... .. .... .. .......... ....................................... ...... .... ,
.. .. 17
Currency Board. ............... .... .. .. .... .. .... .............. .... .... ............ ...........
.. .. 19
NOlJlaIJOTlK~
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13.6
..........................
...... M
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.. ............... 27
nivaKOS 13.3. Kavovas TOU Xpuoou - Kupla 8W~IKci & AmoupYIKci XapaKT'IpIOTlKci . 30
'Eveno 13. 7. b"ev~ ETTEVOUTlKci K('l'ciAOIa - OAa AMci~oUVE KOI OAa TO 'Iola Mtvouv
.................... 34
'Eveno 13.9. A~loTTIoTia - Eva Mcie~~a TTOU MoAl-ov bEV A'l'0~0IW6~KE nA~pwS .. ... 38
51
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14.1 EIO"aywYrl
Tov AnpiAlo 2007. 0 ~~ep~",OS DYKaS auvaUaywv ar~ OleSV~ oyopa mJvoUaY lioros
~taV -r~S -raSeOlS -rOlV $3.2 tPIS. AatpovollIKD noo6 ! Kill TaXllTCLtO aus avDlleYo ' Tpia
XPOVlO n:PlV tlttXV KUtl Aly6t tpo an:o 60% autou tOU n:oO"ou, yupw O1"a $1,9 tpl<;, tvw 15
x.pOVIO 1(P'V ~taV liGAte; t o 1/5. rUpw CITO $820 OIS.'
rla va ep80uv aUta to. aotpOVO~J.lKa n:ooa crt y~lva ).lEtpa, 1"0 AETI HOV H .n.A. ~tUV
to 2006 1(epinou $13 tpt<;. ';~Aao~, tOY AnpiAlO 2007 to laoDUvalio t~S asias t~S etfJmas
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$3,2 Tpic; S1lePVOliV Kon; 1(oAli KO[ TO lleyoAliTEPO tAAllllla aro lool;UyIO tp eXOUOWV mJ
va)..Aay6w 1(OU tXEI KaToypacpEi at~ V 1(aYK6alllO "'tOpia: nepurou $8 10 ot<;, lWV H.D.A.,
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OIS t~S 1a;<Olvias TO 2006.
o ~llep ~alOS DYKOS auvoUaywv anlv OlESV~ oyopa OUVOAAaYliatoe;, 0 o1(oiae; a1(O
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TlTAn 'BIS Trienniol Central Bank Survey o/Foreign Exchange and Derivotives Markel Activity'.
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To AEYOIJEVO 'carry trade' ovacpEpETaI OE lJio UlpllAou KIVlSuvou ETTEvl5UTIK~ OTPOTIW'Kr'\ iJE VOlJiOiJOTO:
Tov l5avEloJJQ at tva VOIJIOlJO JJE XOJJI1A6 ETTITOKIO KOI Tllv Err!vlSuOIl TWV XPIl).lOTWV OE EVo oMo,
ETTEVl5U Tr'\ ~ aVO).lEvEI va tXtl Ktp150<; OTav 11 i5lacpopci TWV ETTITOKiwv ~ETTEpv6 Tllv ovaIJEVO
IJtVI') TTOOOOTIolo UTTOTIIJllOll TOU vO).lio).lOTo<; IJE U4lI1Ao t TT1T6K10 .
ME opOU<; TWV E~IOWOEWV (14.7) KOI (14.8). tOTW
TO ETTIT6KI0 lJioc; TTE.P1650u TOU YltV EivOI
i K1 = 0,5% , TO OVTiOTOIXO ETTITOKIO TOU 50Aopfou Ntoe; ZI1AovlSlo<; i NZ.I = 5,5%, KOI '1 OVO).lEVOIJEVIl
ouVaAAOYIJOTIKr'\ oTTolSoOIl TWV tm:v5UQVTWV crTI') Nta ZllAav6io
all
A ,A.
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.
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, S,+I[YINZ$]- S, [YINZS]
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15
K, .
o ETTVOUT1KOC; KivZ)uvoC; TTPOtPXTal O:TTO Tl'lV TT18avOTr]Ta r] UTTOTi!-lr]or] TaU VOlJ iOIJOTOC; OTO OTToio
TTVZ)U(l/Z)avf~1 va rival !-IyoMn:pr] aTTo TI) l5lacpopo TWV TTlTOKfwv. .6.r]Aal5~ , f) ouvaJ..AOYIJa nK~
OTTOZ)OO1) va EivOi apV1)TIK~ KOII-lyoMJTpr] O( onoAuTO I-lEy90C; OTTO TI) OIOCPOpO: TUlV ETTITOKlwv.
Ie OpKntc; m:plTTfliJoIe;, TO 8I-lEAIWOr] OIKOV0I-lIKO !-IEy(8 1) Eival TETola WoT a ETTVZ)UTlKOe;
KivZ)uvoe; va ivol oXTIKcl IJIKPO<;. 01 TTVZ)U Tte; 6v (fvOI TTapoAoyol . AvaJ..0lJl3ovouv AEAoYIOIJEvoue;
Klv('5uvOUe;.
.6.uo TETOIEe; TTPITTTWOIe; ivOI TO AVolJvo 'convergence play' TWV xwpwv 01 oTTofe;:
TTl9ulJoUV va vTOx9auv OTI)V ONE, IJ xapOKTf)pIOTIKO TTopa6IYlJa aUTO TI) e; EAAoooe; ora TEAr] Tr] e;:
i5Koniae; TaU 1990, KOI Tl'le; IOTTwviae;: O'TO TTPWTO IJIOO Tf)e;: oEKoETioe; TaU 2000.
Trl~
lipOXl-lriC;:.
ITO TTOlxviol OUYKAioEWC;:, 01 ETTv6uTEC;: TTOVTO:POUV OTI I) UTTOTilJr]OI) TOU VOl-liOI-lOTOC;: I-liae;: xwpoe; 'l
oTTaio CTTlOIWKEI vo yfv1 IJtAoe; Tl'l e; ONE 90 [VOI IJIKpon:p'l OTTO TI) OIOCPOpc'J TWV mToKiwv Tr]e;
EVOVTI TWV ovnoTafxwv TTlTOKiwv TOU EUpW ~ , TTplV T'lV I aoywv~ TaU EUpW, TWV TTlTOKiwv TOU
r PI-l0VlKOU jJO:PKOU. 0 Aovoe; EivOi on TUXOV UTTOTil-l'lo'l 80 ouoxtpalv( T'lV TTpoomi9Elo EVTa~EWe;
OTl'lv O.N.E.: ea i51l1-110UPVOUOE TTAIl9wpl0TlKEe; TTltole; OTTO TrlV TTAupd Tr] e; TTpOOcpOpae; (~AtTTETE
TIlV EVOTI)TO 3.4 "nAr]8wpIOIJ0l; - 'Evae; CllouAoe; KUKAoe;" ), OIOKU~UOVTOe; TI)V TTfTEU~rt vae; K TWV
KPITl)pfwv EVTa~EWe; , aUTO TOU XO jJrtAou TTArt9WPIOIJOU.
AUT~ I) OTPOT'1YIKrl rlTOV 0f'll-l0tpl"-rie; KOI Via TrlV EMI)VIKrl 6paXIJrl OTO Xp6V1O TTplV Tr]V 100 150
Tile; OTf)V ONE TO 2001. Km 0XI xwpi<; Aovo, OTTWe; H:KIJI)PIWVI TO OKoAou90 O'XrllJO TO OTloio
TTa p OUOIO ~E I TIC;: IJl)vlaiEe; aTTo600Je; (VOe; ETTEV6u Trl a oTToioe; oavEI~otaV Via Eva )Jrlva OTI)V
r EPIJOVlKr) oiOTpaTTE~IKti Ovopa KOI EntVOUE TO XPrll-l0TO VIO tva I-Irlvo OT'lV EA"-r] VlKrl 610TpaTT~IKrl
ovapa.
MIlVloiEC; ATTOlioOEIC;: [%] l-IE 'Carry Trade' Tile; lipaXl-Il'le;
4r---------------------------------------------,
: IT~~,,1trlt,~Y-'-'-'-"T"'ll..L..-""
'-.'' '.
~
~2
-4
~ L-------------------------------------------------~
10v-95
10v-96
lov-97
lov-98
I,,,,,,,
01 I-l'lvlaiec;: aTToi5ooEle; riTOV KOn] KOVOVO 8TlKte;. H IJtoll IJr]Vloia OTT0i500r] VIO Tllv TTpioi5o
lovo uopfou 1995 - .6.EKIJ~piou 2000 ~TOV TTpfTTOU 0,5% KOI IllJtOI) TrlO'lO 6,5%. no Tl'1v m:pioOo
Jovouo pfou 1995 - .6.EK)Jj3piOU 1999, TO aVT[oTOIxa IJVt91l ~TOV 0,65% KOI 7,8%.
E VOE IKTl K ~ TaU KIVOUVOU TflC; OUVKEKPl I-IEVI)e; rnEVOUTlK~C;: OTpaTIlVIK~e; EivOI I) lJVoAI1 OPVIlTlK~
OTTOOOOr] TOV Cll~pouaPlo 1998. 'H TOV OTTOTtAEOIJO TI)e; UTTOTI!-Ir1i5Ewe; Tr]e; KEVTPIK~e;: IOOTllJfoe;: TI)e;
~pax~~<;
- 'Carry Trade'.
'Eva ~EUVaPI V0I-lIUIJOTWV Via TO oTToia TO 'carry trade' f)rav TToAu I-lEV6"-o OTIC; apxte; Tile; OEKOTioe;
TOU 2000 OUviOTOTO OTTO TO Vltv IOTTWvioe; KOI TO i5oAaplo Ntoe; ZIlAovi5ioe;. H IOTTwvio EIX TTOA U
XOIJI)Aa Em TOKIO , KOVTa UTO 0%, Mvw TOU aVTlTTAll8wpl0lJou (~AtTTET TO tv8tTO 5.13 "0
AVTmA1)9wplolJ0C; TflC; IOTTwviac;, 1999 - 2005"), EVW fl NEa ZIl"-av6ia EiXE 0XETIKO UlVfl"-a ETTITOKIO ,
Mvw TWV TT"-1)9wPIOTlKWV TTltOEWV TI C;: oTToiEe; av nI-lETW TTl~E I) xwpo.
To KO TWTtpw OXrllJO oEixv1 Tie; IJl1vloiEe; OTTOOOOJe; (oTf)AEe;) EVOe; E:TTEVOUTrl 0 OTTOrOe;
i5ovl ~o rav OTflv OIOTpaTT~IK~ ovapa TI)C; IOTlwvfae; KOI i5aVI~E OTI)V i510TPOTTE~IKrl Tfle; Ntac;
ZflAavoiae; Via Eva lJf)va.
16
lOr------------------------------------------------------,
8
o
2
-6
"' ~------------------------------------------------~
10....01
lay.02
lalJ.03
10 ....04
10 ....06
napa TOV KIV~UVO TWV apVIlTIKWV ano~O~tWV, 01 OTTolioow;: ElvOI IJOMov tAKUOTlKte;: H 1J0'1
!-IllVlOiO OTTCX)OOIl VIO lllv uno .~tTOoll m :pio150 ~TOV rrtpinou 1,2%,11 liE IJEOIl Tr)alO 14,7%.
To 'carry trade' ~nop'i vo o15IlVr)Ol:1 at arrooTa8tporroillTIKfI I5UVOIJIKr) TWV ouvOMaViJOT1KwV
JOOTJIJIWV: H EIOPOr) OTO vOlJlolJa )JE TO ulp'lAon:po EmTOK10 VO rrpoKaAtoEI oVOTf)JIlOr) TaU , EVW 11
EKPOr) orro aUTO Ot urroTil-lllO~ TaU.
AUTr) 11 OUVOIJIKr) tVEXEI KIVI5UVOU<; 0XJ IJOVO VIO TOU<; trrEv15uTEe; aAAa KOI VIO TIlV xwpa I-IE TO
UlpllA6 EmToKIO.
ME avmpopa oro - 'carry trade', VIO TOU<; ETTEVI5UTt<; a Kivl5uvo<; tXEI w<; E~r)~: Edv, via
orrolol5r)TTOTE Aovo, OPKETOi arro aUTou~ arrocpaol~av va KAEfaauv TIe; 8tOEI~ TOU<;, Il aU~lllJtvll
~f!TIlOIl Via VIEV EVEiXE TOV Kivl5uvo TOO'O IJEV6AIl<; avaTlIJr)O'EWC; TOU tvavTI TaU 150Aapiou Ntae;
ZIlAavl5io<;. 0<; OTTOTtAEOIJO. 01.01 01 ErrEv15EUTE<; 80 Eixov ~1l)Jia . Ev OMVOI<;, TO 'carry trade' IJrrOpE; va
KaTOAr)~EI OE IO'opporrfo TaU TpO)JOU t
flo rrEplcrcroTEPt~ AE:TTTOlJtptIE<;, OUVlO'Toral IlIJEAtTIl "Risk in Carry Trades: A Look at Target
Currencies in Asia and the Pacific", by Jacob Gyntelberg and Eli M. Remolona , SIS Quarterly
Review . December 2007. pp. 73 - 82.
no Til xwpa )JE TO U~H1M E:TTlTOKIO a Kiv15uvo<; tVKtlTOI OTO OTI IJnopEi va rrpoKAIl8Ei )JtVaAIl
UTTOTfl-lf101l TaU vO\JiOlJaTO<; orav IJETaf3A'l60uv 01 npool5oKite; Via TO tmTOKIO 1) Tie; auvoMaVIJOTlKE<;
IOOTllJit<;. :[E OUTOV TOV Kiv(Suvo. TlP006tOQTE KOI Tf1 QUOKoAia (SIOXElploEW<; Tile; OIKOVOlJ ia<; t VEKO TIl<;
aTToOTaaEponOIIlTlK~<; I5UVO)JIKr')<; TWV c51E8vwv ETTEVI5UTlKWV K[(paAoiwv, 11 OTloio avaAuEral OTllv
EVOT'1TO 17.2 ".618vr)C; ETTEvl5UTIKO KE<poAOIo - .6IMIJIJOTO
H
~ iE'
> i,,,
Kat
Mul.,ato, orr"" rrpOKU1tTl fl avaouiTaSTj TWV OpolV TTl, SIO"WO"W, (14.7), Tj Otacpopu TWV
1tltoKiwv 800 xwpwv iVOI iaTl fl TI]v ova~cvo~cv1'\ rroaoanoio flTaDol.~ TTl, cruvol.
l.aYflonKi], TOU, laOtlflia,. H Tl.eura(o EivOl i<J1l fl T1'\V OVOflCVOf!CV1'\ cruvoUOYflOnK~
U1{oooa1'\ (s(O"wa1'\ [14.40]).
(14.70)
rEVIKou:pa, ym
81
Y"V ClI
"lPVYO
0 /\ 1OJ.3/q rlOAO IUQ '1\01('0" t\OlDIXQynol ~HDdo 01 CIA '0 10110 01 "!llliIlODI l\!ld38010 Orll.JIDt)O
01D 11l9 1~D orq 3D MOX:}J.3rlrln:r "!!I dn3 01 'DrlDlrfgf\ 012! 01 MOX~ "3 'N"O )La UY1ri - S3dc;JX 10
I'q, =" o!
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13UU)lodll '(DL"v~ ) S(T)3Dl!lDI~3 Slu ~Aor1do d')3 3Lf!J "$/8'03 = 'S IOA.l3 Ojr1110DI ODl)od
(% ~ =) S"O'O = 1"3! IOAJ3 01:>1911113 01 ' l ' v~ SOlDrllfXD no! 0r1AI3QJ;ldoll 01];
DOQ911.\f :MUO
oyyol\nl
tt~ .
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Slu 91 ~91ll!3 01 'P9urillUAU 01\ lD131\:;n10I\IJ Sud C9X ,0}T1 uri.Dlri91\ 011\1)13 <,roX!OlDllAV
~A3TI 9A3nDAn
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AUl
OlA ' UD029lLO t.D lllnrlAU"("(IJI\C\.D ~)lllUl\do UA3ri9A3riDAU I\U1 OlA uriDl.ri91\ 01 91nu 30 '31A
-O~gA31L3
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01 '(.p I
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S(DlLo.
S{T)3.ot;ri1l0lLCl. ' UA?riOA3riOAIJ SUl 910 0DOlt. 0 1 'J:)lU){ 'Jt3.o190lLn S?~1l(l31DCl.0"(1.m S3D}39
-d3dmAuo dll S11 9 11n 'D1Dl'(1}ri lD)I 5DdC!>'X SU,(,,(l? SU1 nOp!.0 111!3 nOl Od319'( u !hn lDl\!3 DI\ l311
-?dll SU1 9\~911lL3 01 !39urfllOllCl. DI\ 1D13A?riUI\)J Sud~X SU}ri uriDlri9A 01 1\1)3 'm 3lL?ACLO Su
[q /o)'S
[q l0j's-[ql"l'+'s'il
(gnl)
lo l
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01 KOVOVI0I-I0! aAAa~ouv, 01 VDI-I0I Tr]() oyopa() OXI. rl ' auro Kal I'] O"I.JYKArol'] TWV ETTITOKiwv IOXUEI
61aXPovIKci OE 6AE() TI() VOIJ10I-IOTIK() EVt.iJOEI().
Eav 10 KD<HO, IiUlt~p~oeUl, t~, OtuOepa, toon~ia, dval ~EYaAO, lilon, 1l.X., arrote
Ad tpoxollEIi~ Yla t~v avooo tUlV e~ayUlYWv Kat t~V OIKOVO~IK~ aVarrtU~~, 01 errevliUT<;
avayvUlpil;ouv 10 Kiv1ltPO tUlV Arxwv va t~V EYKata:\.ell!,ouv. Errelo~ lie OE t EtOlE<; llEPl
mwoEl, to vO~\(J~a auV~OUlS ullon~(ltal, 01 errevliuTts 8a <;~tOUV U\jf~AOtEPO e1l\To<10 UlS
arro<;~~iUl~ Yla t~V apv~n~ auvaUay ~an~ allolioOll ~v olloia 8a U1l0<HOilV EaV
au~PEi ~ U1l0ti~~o~ KaHi. t~ IitllpKEla t~S ellEVOUOEUlS.
Yrrapxouv, errio'l" llEpmtwoElS 01l0U, llapa t~V etl.lKplv~ 8tA'l~ tUlv Apxwv va lil
at~p~oouv t~v 1l0A\t\~ t~S <Ha8Epa, lC5otl~ias, ~ oUVatoT1]ta TOU, Eival llEPlOp\(J~tvT].
AvaYVUlpU;OvtaS aUt~v tw rrpawatlKDT1]ta, Ol errevliutts Kal rr6.l.1 8a <;1]totiv U\jf1]AOtepo
E7t1tOKlO.
I;UY KEKp\~tva rrapalidy~atu
AVIC10
On-if
Kal ETTITOKla
01 XWPE() I-IE I-IEydAE() I-IOKPOOIKOVOI-IIKt() OViOOPPOTTiE() cruv~ew<; txouv u4JI']Mn:po ETTITOKIO. eO' E~E
T6aoUI-IE TPEi() TTEpITTTWaEI(): Xt.iJPE<; IJE IJEy6Aa EMEiIJIJora rou laoi;uyiou TpExouawv ouvaAAoyoov,
XWPE() IJE ulPI']A6 TTAIl8wpIOIJO (UlPIlAoTEpo OTTO TOV TTAIl9wploIJO TWV EI-ITTOPIKWV TOU() ETOipwv), KOI
ria TIl; 6uo TTptiJTE<; aViaoppoTTlt(), J3M"m:: T( TflV EVOTflTO 13.4 "nAfl8wpl0IJO() KOI MEmJ3oAt<; TI']()
OVOlJaOTlK~ IOOTllJio()". Kuplo OUIJTTt pao!Jo Tr]() Eival OTl, OTav UTTapxouv 01 Mo aUTte; aVlcroppoTTfEe;,
fl !Jov!"} oJ3E~aloTflTO !"} oTTofa uTTdPXEI 6EV oc.popo oro crv eO' anoc.pEux8Ei 11 OvolJacrTIK~ UTTOTilJflO'1.
AUT~ E:ival avoTToc.pEUKTIl. AAA6 TO rr6n eO' crUIJ~Ei , KOI TT600 jJEyaAf] eo Eival.
Avayvwpi~oVTO() aUT~v TI']V TTPOYIJOTIKOTIlTO, 01 ETTEV6uTt<; ~I)TOOV aTTo~1"\lJiwO'1 Yla va ETTEV6u
OOUV aro VOIJIOIJO TIl<; xwpa<;, UTTO TflIJOP<P~ TOUUlIJ'l"-OTEPOU : TTITOKlou.
Ooov Oqlopa crTI']V TpiTIl aVloopPoTTia, 01 ETTEV6uTE<; avayvwpi~ouv TOV TTElpaOIJO TWV Apxwv
va XP'1IJQT060T~OOUV TO IJEyciAa EAAEilJlJOTcr TOU TTPOOTTOAoyrolJoU IJE TIl v EKTUTTWOfl xp~lJaTO<;. eO'
aU~1"\TIleE I mo KEqloAmo 20. H EKTlJTTWOI'] XP~IJOTO<; , OlJw<;, KOI " ouvoKoAou81l aU~I']OIl Tr]<; VOIJIOIJO
nK~() KUKAoqlopia(), TTpoKaAouv TTAlleWpIOTIKE() TTIOEI() aTTo TI']V TTAEupO Tr'I<; ~I)T~OEW(). lJ.(.v Eivol E~
ar.,,-ou Tuxoio on 01 TTOOXOUOE<; OTTO UTTEPTT"-fl8wPIOIJO XWP<; EXOUV ulIJI)Ao EMEiIJIJara TOU TTPOO
TToAoytolJ oU
ETTITTAtov, 01 ETTEVOUTE() avayvwpi~ou v TOV TTElpaOIJO TWV Apxwv va IJEIWOOUV TO KOOTOe; E~U
TT'lp('T~aEw<; TOU OUOOWPEUIJVOU xptou<; IJE UljJIlAoTEpo TTAl']eWpIOlJO. KOI AOIJ!3avouv urr' 64J1V TI']e;
TTl8avt() OUVETTElt<; TOU avoql0pJKd IJE TI'] ouvoAAay~oTlK~ aTT06ool']. BAtTTTE 0XETIKO Kal Tflv EVDH1TO
5.2 MTo Kooro<; TOU nAfl8wpJoIJ0(f.
rrt~1!tOV, Tl axt~ ~etoSu t1]S ~EtoPOA~S tUlV E1lltOKiUlV Kat t~S ~EtopoMs tllS (JlJVaA
AaYJlatLK~~ lOOnJl(a~ Bev ctVUl )..lovocr~Jlo.Vtr\ : E~aptatUl ano "IllV altra nou tL~ npOKaAel.
Qs a1l0TAEO~1l, ~ia llti~~~ toU errltoKiou ~ias xwpas ElVal au~pat~ Kat ~E avati
~~~ Kat ~E urroti).lll~ toU vo~i,,~atDS t~S. To arrooElKVuOUV to 1lOpaliEiwata t~S E'l'ap~o~, 14.4.
E
14.4. METa
oAi.
luon IWV
eEwpioTE Tflv Utopia KOI TO VOIJIOIJO Tilt; NoValue. H axtol) (14.6) ypciqlTOI we;
( 1+1 . )=( 1+ ;
N I-.1
.,
).E,S/+l [NV / ]
SJNV/ ]
]9
U ~
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2%. H E.K.T. ~EV oAAa~ E I TO EnnoKlo TI)<; Eupw
~WVI)<;, EVW 01 ETTEV~uTt<; ~EV aAAa~ouv Tl'lv aVOIJEvOIJEVI) IOOTl~io.
ME T1)V avo~o TOU iNv./ OE 0,0164 (:0,0 144 + 0,02), '1 Entv~UO'1 OE NoValue VivtTOI roI KE p~tOTE
PI) H EIOPO~ KE<pOAOfwv crTll Xwpa ou~aVEI HI ~~Tll01) VIO TO VOIJIOIJO: Tlll:; OTI)V ovopa ouvoMaVlJo
TOI:;, IJE OTTOTAEO)..lO T1)V OVOlI),JI)OI) TOU NoValue. H 10OTI)..Iio Yla TI)V onolo anoKa9foTOloi 1) 100ppO
rna TTPOKUTTTEI ono Tl'l AUoll Tlle;: E~loliloE W e;:
9WPIO~OU , ou~6v1 TO ETTlT6KIO Tr)<; Xwpo<; KOHl
(I + [0,144 + 0.02])
To NoValue avoTIIJ~9I1K E KOTa 2% TTEpfTTOU, 600 KOI I) au~'1o'1 TOU ETTlTOKfou TOU .
nEpiTTTWOrr 21"1. H E.K. T. OU~d:VEI TO ETTiTOKIO TaU EUPW KOla 2%, EVW I) KEVTPIK~ Tpam:~O Tr")e;: Utopia
OU~dVEI TO ETTnOKIO KOla 0,5%. H OVOIJEVOjJEVI) looTllJfa ~EV aAA6~EI KOJ TTOAI. H 100Tl)..lla Yla TI)V 0
noio anOKo9ioTOTOI fllCOPPOTTio npOKumEI OTTO Til AUOil Tile;: E~IOWOEW<;
NVII/
(I + [0,144 + 0,005]) = (I + [0.04 + 0,02])'--- => x = NVI O,148 / .
x
To Euplil OVOTI)..I~e'1KE tvavTI TOU NoValue KOla 1,48%, 600 TTEpfTTOU KOI I)
TWV ETTlTOKiwv TOU EUpliJ KGI TOU NoValue.
~Io<popd
OTl<;
OU~~OEI<;
nEpfmwOIl 3r]. no KOTTOIO Mya, 0 OTToio<; 6EV EIvOI TOU lTOpOVTOe;:. 01 TTEV6uTe;: OAAO~OUV TI<;
TOUe;:: npoa6oKouv 6TI TO NoValue
EivOi ao6EvtoTEPO oro jJtM ov alT6 OTi ova~Ev6
Tav IJXPI TWpO . rUYKEKp1IJtvo , r") OVOIJEVO\JEVIlIOOTllJfO OAA6~EI OE E/ S/i I = NV II,5/f, )..IE OUVTTEla 11
ovoIJEv6IJ EVI) unoTi)..ltlol) va OU~1l6Ef ana 10% OE 15%.
E6v 11 KEVTPIK~ TpaTTC~O Tr")e;: Utopia ~EV OU~~OCI TO ETTnOKIO, TO NoValue 60 unOTIIJ'l6Ei KOla
5% (= 15% - 10%) TTEpiTTOU . AUT6 npOKuTTTEI OTTO TI) AlJor") Ttll)" E~ lowcrEWI)"
eo
npoo~oKfEe;:
no
va ~r") V UTTOTII..I1")8Ef TO NoVa lue, I") K CVT PIK~ Tp6TTC~cr nptTTEI va ou~~m:l TO ETTnoKlo K01<l 5%
(= 15%- 10%) TTEpiTTOU. AUTO TTpOKumCI OTTO Til AUOI") TI") l)" E~IOWOEWI)"
.
. .
N VlI ,5/
.
~ I NVI ::: 0,196 (::: 19,6%).
NV IO / '
YnapXEI KOI I") 1J01") AlJCIl . H KEVTP1Krl TPCITTE~O vo aU~~(]EI IJEV TO ETTn6Klo, AIy6TCpO 6~w<; OTTO 5%.
'EOTW OTI TO O U~6 VEI KaYO 2%. Drrwl)" TTpoKumEI OTT6 Til MOl") TI") l)" E~IOWOEWI)"
(I + [0,144 + 0,02)) = (I + 0,04) '
NV I1 5IE
'
=> x = /\11' 10,2749 / .
x
A TPO
,
0)..11
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uatpOVO~lKa
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'Eva uno to. 7tAf:OV Evcha<pf:povta. 9f:).lutU, t((lV aUIO-7ttPPUlOU,Utvoov npocrboKuDv
U110Tt~~()"(j)S, ()"1)i;T)!iTat O"t~v <pap~oy~ 14.9. AS ~~lwai ott autts 01 l1POOOOKlS a
ltOtAOUV ~a<HKO ()"1)otatlKO twv ()"1)VC1nay~atlKrov KpioEWV. 0a avaAuSouv EVOEMXroS
)l-S to u1t688t'Y).lU Mundell - Fleming, 11 to onoio !l1tOPOUV va E~EtacrtOuv at 7tt1rrmat~
tou.:; eXt !lova ala E1tttOKlU, 01tCDS ~mopi va yiVEt IlE ITJV :Euve~tcl1, UAAcl. Kat <rCllV OlKO
vOllin 'YVlKOtEpo..
E a
"
14.9.
n oa60KiE
YnoTl . crEW
'EOTW 6n fl rropouaa IOOTlIJIO lVOI 1000 TOUPKIKtc; Aips ava tUpw , S, = 1000 TAlE, TO ETTITOKIO TOU
upw it :, = 0.04 (4%). TO ompaJ..IOTpa Klvl)uvOU Kal p[uOT6T1'lTOC) 1-I'l 6tv, RP = LP = 0, OTTWC;: Kal 6;'0 TO
K0O'111 TTAr1poq)Qp~awe; Kal auvaAAavwv.
naPOTI I"] TOUPKIK~ KEVTPIK~ TpCmE~a TTpOOTTa8Ef va KpaT~O'EI TI"]V IO'OTllJfa O'T08Ep~ Via va aTTO
<pUVEI TI"]V EvraO'l"] TWV ~(51"] U4JI"]Awv TTAI"]8wpIO'TIKWV mEO'EWV (~AtTTETt TI"]V EvoTflra 3.4 "nAfl8wPI
O'lJoe;: - 'Eva ATTAo YTTo~EIVlJa ~), 01 avopte;: OVOIJEVOUV OTII") Afpa fawe;: UTTOTllJflBtL
'EO'TW 011 TTpocr60Kite;: TOUe; oVTOvaKi.wvTOI CTTO 6TI '1looTllJia Via TrjV EPXO}JEVT) TTEpfol5o ovalJt
VTOI va TTOpt:l lJia EK TWV 600 T1IJWV
!fH
I-
1rH =
0,1
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0,9.
ATTo Trj OUVB~Krjlo06uvojJiae;: ETTITOKiwv TTPOKllTTW OTI TO ETTITOKIO Tile; TOUpKIK~e; Aipae; tlVOI
i TA.1 II; i+ (ErSl" } -
S,)/SI =
AUTO TO ETTITOKIO Eival UqJrjhO, TTh'1V olJwe; 0XI Toao WCTTE I") TOUPKIK~ KEVTP1K~ TpOTTE~a va EYKOTO
AEiqJEI TrjV TToAmK~ T'1e; ora8Epcre; IOOT1IJioe;.
rUIJ~afvEI , oIJWe;, KOTTOIO ytyovoe; TO oTTolo au~avEI Tflv m8aVOT'1TO 1f" OE 0,2 (KOI IJEIWVEI TI")V
1f1. OE O,S). H aU~l")ol") T'1e; ifH OUO'IOOT1Ka ovravoKAo IJEyoMTEPrj avalJEVOIJEvrl uTTOTIIJIlO'1 TI"]e; Alpoe;
Ko90TI TWPO
ErSl _1 =
1f/.
Sf+J.l. +
no va TTopalJEivEJ '1100Tll.lio OE
i T.lJ 'I:I
SI
1fH SH.H
aU ~ '1BEI OE
nOpOTIlPEfoTE Twpa T'1V KUKAIK~ AOYIK~ TWV OUTO-ETTI~E~OIOUjJEVWV TTP00150Klwv UTTOTII.l~OEWe; . 'E
OTW OTi I"] KEvrP1K~ Tpom:~o EivOi (510TE9EljJEVTl vo (5EX8Ei i TA.! "" 24% TTPOKEII.lEVOU va OTTOqlEUXBEI 11
UTTOTi}J'lOTI TOU VOI-.JiOIJOTOe;. (Eav '1 TTOpOUOO looTllJia UTTOTIIJ'18tf OE .s~ = TA I200/ = E,s,_/. TO ETTIlO
KIO looPPoTTioe; IJm.l.lVTOI O iTA .1= 4% = iE.")'
DlJwe;:, Myw TWV OpVIlTlKWV ETTlTTTWOEWV TOU U4JIlAou TTlTOKiou OTI1V OIKov0l.lia, 01 ayope;:
opXf~ouv va I5lolo8d:voVTol 6TI 11 KEVTPIK~ TpaTT~a 8cr avaYKooTEi va oTT06EX8Ei Tllv UTTOTilJ'1o'1 TOU
VOlJiOIJOTOe;:. AUTO 010 TTOp0(5EIYI..I0 }Joe; IJTOcpp6 ~E TOI OE vta OU~'10'1 T'1e; 7Tu. tQTW OE 0,3, KOI oVTi
OlolX'1lJtiwOll T'le;: 1f" OE 0,7.
ME Trlv OVOlJEV0J.JtV'1100Tl}Jfa TWPO
ErSl"d =
TTL 5~ r/. L
OIOT~P'1OTl
!fH SI+J.H =
Av }J iTA., = 24% 01 oyopte; tOlVcrv TTl90v6TI1TO 1fH = 0,3, ~E iTA., = 34% 90 olvouv IJEyahUnp'l. EVTEivo
VTOI , IJE 6Mo A6Yla, 01 TTPOOOOKiEe;: '{Ia UTTOTilJrjO''1. 'EOTW, ~OITTOV , on Twpa TO 1fH OU~OVTOI OE 0,4.
To mToKlo yla HI 6IOT~P'1crl"] Tile;: 1000TllJiae;: SI = T/\ I DOOlE au~6vEI at 44%, TO OTToio }JE Til OElpd: TOU
oU~CrvJ TI1V mBaVOT'1TO UTTOTlI.l~O'Ewe;: .
cpauAoe; aUToe;: KUKAOe; EVTEIVO}JEVWV TTpoo60KIWV YIO UTTOTi}J'lOI1 Kal O'u~aVOlJtvwv EmTOKiwv
Sa OTOl..laT~OEI }JOVOV OlOV UTTOTlIJ'18Ei '1 Aipo ... (TTI~E:~OJWVOVTae;: TIe;: OPXIKte;: TTpoo60KfEe;: UTTOll}J~
OEWe;.
28
DTTWl) OVOM!TOI Of'lV v6T'lTO 17.4 ~ LuvoMaYlJalIKEl) KpioIl)". r] aU~r]oll Till) TTl8crvOTIlTOl)
apVI)TIKO TO laO~UYlo 8ETlKWV - apVI)TlKWV TI)l) TTPOOIl"'woW<; Till) KVTPIK~<;
TpaTTt~'lC; OTI)V TTO"'ITIK~ Tr]C; ora8Epcrc; 10OTllJfa<,;. 0 ~E cpau"'oe; KuKAoe; aVTcrvoK)..(i TO on 01 ETTEVOU~
ftc;, avoyvwpf(ovrac; OUT~ TI)V oMay~, au~avouv ll)V TTl8av6TIlra UTTOTlIJri.OEW'-:
UTTOnlJ~Ow<; TTI)PEO~EI
I:TI)V TTpO~Il . OTTOU TO aocpo)..IOTpa KIV~UVOU KOI PUOTOT'lTOe; EiVai 1J11~~.1I10VIKO , 0 cpou"'o<,; KUK"'O<,;
ETTlflVETaI OTT6 lllV aU~1l0~ TOU<'; . KOI roUTO lSUln 01 ETTvlSuTte; yvwpf~ouv TTW<'; O TT(piTTTWOl) UTTOTI
IJ~OEWl) 80 au.~ry8ouv 01 rrU1),"~FJUIqrJTTr~'ai~~ ..RrXti~tproi:rrl I) OIKOVOIJIKI'I KaTOOTOO'l Kat 80
ou~t'}e(i I) TII6aVOTt'}TO va IJl1v TT"''lpw60uv TT"'~PW<; KOI EYKOipwC;. rIO OE TO aocpO"'IOTPO PEUO'TOTfl
TO<';, yvwpj~ouv OTI OE TTEpiTTTWOfl UTTOnlJ~O(We; ([VOl m8av6v va IJllv UTTOPXOUV apKEToi ETTvOUTEe;
~lOT(9E1IJtVOI va ayopdoouv TOUpKIKEe; Mp(C;.
Oe; OTTOTU.EOIJO , '1 OTTOITOUIJEV'1 OU~110'1 TaU mlToKlou, Yla if1 OUYKPOT'1C1''1 Tile; IOOTllJia<,; Of:
K09 KUK"'O, eo Eival U4'Il"'OTPll.
l1Ev (ivai "'OYIKO on 0 avwTtpw cpou)..oe; KUK"'Oe; "'EITOUPYEi TTO"'O VPr'\yopo , IJI1V mpr'\voVTae;
TTo"'M TTEPISWPIO ovn~pdowe; OTIC; ApxtC;; KOI TO OTI orav ~EKlvd. MOKO)..O O'TOIJOTd 1<01 , OUVETTWC;,
11 KO"'UTEPll (TTI)..oy~ , 11 )..ly6TEpO (TTOXe~C;, iowe; EivOi va aCPEeEf TO VDIJIOIJO va UTTOTllJllei;
TIavTw" '1 ClvCllpeC>TJ TWV CI11AOUOTUTlKWV U1!oS ta WV XUP'1 aTle; 01!0[ee; ec,t\xS'1 '1 EVVe~K~
0!:V flETa~UAAt oumaanKU T'1V 1!PO'1Y'1SlaCl aVUAUC>TJ KCIl TCI c , aUTt'le; cru~11pUa~Clm.
(14.11 )
'Ev9HO 14.9.
napElJl3aa~ O'T~v
H E~iawO'I1 (14.11) O'UVOl4'i~EI /5uo aTTo TOUe; TpEIl) TPOTTOUC; \.IE TOUe; oTToioue; 01 Apxte; lJ iae; xwpae;
Xdplv Tile) OIKovolJfac; TaU KEIIJEVOU, '1 aU~~TIlal1 O'Tld~ETOI 0' TTapEIJ~all TWV Apxwv TI1C; Uto
pia , TTpOKEllJEVOU va OTIlP;~OUV TO UTTO TTiEOf] VIa UTTOTi\.lIlO'l NoValue.
A.A. AVT~OUA.itl0'
29
H TTapt~l3aoll QTTOOKOTTEf OTO va OU~1l8Ei '1 <~TI1011 YIO TO NoValue OTTO TOUt; .TT.VOUTEt;. AUTO
l-JTTopEi va ETTlTEUX8Ei J,JE OU~IlOIl TOU ETTlTOKioU Tile; Xwpoe; ~/Kal CfE. l-lE.TO~oAr) TWV TTpoaOOKIWv Via Til
l-lE.AAOVTlK~ lOOTIl-lia E.TTI TO 8ETlKOTEPOV Via TO VOl-llOIJO. napaOTOnKa, IJE iw .l t ~/KaJ E,sH [NV/E}.l..
KdTToioi OTTO TOUt; TToAUTTA'18E.ie; nOpaYOVTEe; 01 onoiOll-JTTOpoUV va EnllPEOcrOUV ne; npocrtjoKi
Et; avoAUOVTOI KOTwn':pw. H napEIJj)oal1 TWV APXwv OTTOOKOTTEi OTOV EnI1PEOOJ,.JO npoe; TIlV ElT18u
IJIlT~ KOTEU9UVOfl TWV nopOVOVTWV OUTWV. XOPOKTIlPlonKO: EiVOI TO lTapomiYIJOTo TOU Ev9tTOU
14.11.
ndVTWt;, IllTOpEJ.Jj)aOI1 80 EX! IJEvoMTEPIl TTlSOVOTIlTO E.TTlTuXioe; Eav E.fvaJ OUVTOVIOIJEVI1. ru
YKEKpIIJEVa, 11 IJEiWOI'l TWV ETTlTOKiwv TOU wpw So OUJ.J~OMEI OTllv Evioxuoll TOU NoValue. EnrOlle;,
lJio avoKolvwol1 TI1t; EKT on ElTISUIJEi Eva IOXUPOTEPO NoVarue au~6:vEl Tllv m90voTIlTO va Enl1pw
mouv OJ npootjoKIEt; lTpOe; Tllv E1TI8u1J11Tr) KOTu8uvol1 .
o TpiTOt; TpOnOe; aVOqlEpE.TOI OTrlV aJ,JE.of'l OUIJI-lETOX~ OTI1V ovapa ouvoAAoVIJOTOe;. Eelv OJ APXEt; (1TI
SUIJOUV va UlTOOT'1pf~ouv TO UTTO TT1EOll urrOTltJ~OEWe; VOI-lIO)JO TOUe;, lTwAoOv ~t va VOl-lfOJ,JOTO OTTO
TO ouvaAAoVtJonKO TOUe; an08EJ..!OTO K01 oyopd:<OUV TO EVXWPIO vOl-lrolJo . Au~civouv ETOI Til <~TJlOI1
TOU EVxwpiou VOJ,JiOj..lOTOe;. AVTloTOiXwe; , E.elV StAouv va j..lE.I!.i.mouv Tllv lTiEOIl y,a avaTij..lIlO~ TOU, lTW
Aouv E.VXWPIO VOl-lJoJ,Jo KOI avopo<ouv ~tvo .
I\ovw TaU I-lEVciAou 0VJ(OU ouvaAAovwv OTIlv aVopa ouvaAAaVj,JOTOS, !-lio TETOIO nopE!-lpaOll
r5Ev J..!nopEi va Eival OTTOTEAEOIJOTlK~ vro lToM. ITrlV lTPWTIl m::pflTTwOIl, oPV6 - i] - vp~vopa , KGI
J,JaAAov YPIlYopa, TO ouvoMaYIJOTlKO: OTTOStj,JOTO So E~ovTAIlSOUV. ITr] r5EUTEPr] lTEpilTTWO'1, TO 0'1
j,JOOlOVO)JIKO KOOTOe; TWV ouva,\AoYJ,JoTIKWV OTT08qJOTWV (j)" ETTE TE OXEnKc Tllv EVOTIlTO 17.3) So 0
r5rWf\OEI OE TE.pI-lOnO!-lO Tile; nopq.lpOOE.WS
EYPOZONH (KAI AMEr MErAAEr )(nPEr). H aV1:(nOlX~ Ei;,aw<TIl Yla 1~V Eupw~w~ Elvat
(14.12)
TTapOflolE<; ax"aE" flE n <; (I!I. II) Kat (14.12) fl1<OPOUV va amoAoy~eOUV yta ppaXUITpo
e"'flE<; poE<; aXHtK<; flE EITEVOUa"s aE flHOX"S Kat 0floAoya. ME flla Olacpopa: AV1i 1WV
YVWOTWV 1tlTOKlroV, npbrl va xpllm~on:oI1160uv 01 aV1:l01:OtXS; ava~EV6J.JEVES a1'[086oH~,
E';;
Kat
OTOOIKOVO IKWV
IuvaAAa WV KGIIUOTI iE
LTO OUTPO 1..1106 Tile; 6EKOETiae; TaU 1990, 01 /JEyaAE.e; OlTOtjOOEIe; OTO XPIlj,JOTlOT~PIO Tile; NEae; Yop
KIlS rrp0O'IlAKUOV TToM a ElT(VOUnKO KEqlOAOIO OTT6 TIlV EupWlT'1. 01 OXETIKte; tjE pOEe; ElTEVr5UTIKWV
KEcpaAofwv UlTEP-KOAUlTTOV TO TEpaOnO V.AEI~)JO TOU loo<uyiou TPEXOUOWV OUVo""oyWV TWV
H.n.A , IJE OlTOTtAEOIJO TO lool;uVIO lTA'1PWIJWV Til':; xwpoe; va VfVETOI rrAOVOOlJOTIKO KOI TO ooJ..6~o
va OVOTlJ..lOTOI tvovn TOU EUpW.
rTIe; apxte; Tile; r5EKOE.Tioe; TOU 2000, 01 oyopte; KUj)EPVIlTlKWV 01J0A6vwv TWV H.n .A alTO Tie; KE
VTpIKte; TpCrrT<Ee; Hle; Kivas KOI 6""wv AO"IOTlKWV xwpwv OVTlKoTtoTlloav Tie; ItjlWTlKEe; mEv6uOEIe; OE
)JETOXES we; '1 J(UPIQ OUVIaTWOO TOU lTAEOVOOJ,JOTOS TOU loo<uyiou XPIlJ..!OT001KOVOj,JIKWV ouvoMoywv
TWV H.n.A. OJ KEVTPIKt<; Tp6lTE~Ee; aUTwv TWV xwpwv po~6r]crav OTllv OlOTIlPI101l Tlle; looTlj..liae; TOU
OoAopfou, lTOpd TO TEpciOTIO tAAEllJl-lO TOU loo<uyfou TPEXOUOWV ouvoHaywv.
OlTOrO ElpwvEfa T'1e; TUXIle; ! 01 TTTwxte; XWpEe; OTl1pr<OUV TO VOI-IIO)JO Tile; lTAOU010TEPr]S KOI 1
axupoTEPIle; xwpa<; TOU K6oJ..lou.
KOI , J..IaA.loTO, OE J,Jio KOTaOTOO'l looppolTiae; TPOJ..l0U ! rTr] OUYKEKPIj..lEVrj oUVKupio, 01 lTTW
xte; XWpEe;, EXOVTOe; OUOOWpElHJEI TEpOono ouvoMaY)JonKo oTT09tJ..lQm OE i5oA6pla, r5ltTP(XaV TOV
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J..!fa TETOIO lTEpiTTTWOIl, KIVOUVEUE KOI Il OIKOVOIJIKr'j TOUS avdTTTu~r] OlTO TIlv avoI-lEV0I-lEv'1 Mvw Tr]<;
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l.aywv ~ia<; fllKP~<; xwpas. EV1CtaaOV1:at a EIT!1l KilplES Ka1~yop'ES Kat ITapo uaui~ov!m
rrapaa"'"KIl 010 axiwa 14.2.
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H OIKOVOI-lIK~ olTTAw l-laTio, KOI 11 OUV OUT~ 6IE 9v~ e; GUvEPvooia, I-ITTOPEi va ETTIlPEaoEI Tie; TTpoo50KiE e;
VIO Til cruvoAAoVl-laTlK~ 100TIl-iia KOI , I-ltow aUTWV, Kal T'1V ililo T'1V 10OTll-lio.
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22l: ETTTE~~piou 1985, KOI "TO /\ou~pO , "", 22 C!l E ~pouapiou 1987.
I:XE TIKcl I-IE TO IJOKPOOIKOVOIJIKO TTEplllaAAov Tile; ETTOx~e; EKEivIle;, OTTo TO 1981 TO 60Aapi0 ap
XIOE IJIO IJOKpO: TTEpiol)o OvarllJ~OEWe; (IlAtrn:TE TO 0Xr')IJO 13.1), MtXPI TOV <t>EPPOUOPIO 1985, OTOV
t<p90oE OTO OVWTOTO oTJI-IEfo TOU , :IXE ovaTlI-ITJeEf KOtO 50% TTEpfTTOU Evovn TWV KUpiwv VOIJIOIJOTWV.
I:TIe; H.n .A., 11 OVOTfIJIlOT1IJEiwvE Tr)V OVTOVWVIOTIKOTIlTO TWV EVxwpfwv TTP0l"OVTWV , KOI 61l1J10upvou
OE TPI~ tS IJE TOUe; IJTTOPIKOUS rafpoue; TIlS xwpoS KOI 1511 T'lV laTTwvia. I:ne; aAAES !3IOIJI)XOvIKte;; xw
PEC;;, 11 o u oTOAnK~ VO I-IIOlJarIK~ TToAITIKr'j Via va TTEPIOPIOTEi 'l UTTOTilJllOIl TWV V0I-IIOIJOTWV TOUe; TTI)
pta~E opV'lnKa TIlV 01KOVOl-ll KD ovamu~'l . EmTTAtov, r'jrav 61clXU T'l Kalil TTmofellG'l OTI 11 clv060e;
TOU 60Aapiou rlTOV OTTOTEAEOIJO IPOUOKOC;: GTIlV avopa cruvaAMVI-IOToe;.
METd Til ouvdvTIlOl'] OTO ~v060XEfo nAo~o , 01 uTToupvof OIKOVOIJIKWV TWV TTtvT I-IVOAU TPWV
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vwoll OTi eo TTOPEVtpOlvOV oTT6 KOIVOU OTIlV Ovopa ouvoAAciVI-lOTOe; Via va TTPOKOAtO'ou v UTTOTil-lllO'Il
TaU 60Aopfou. limv, OTTWe; EK TWV TTpaVIJOTWV TTlOTOTTOIEiTOI , lJio o~16TT1CiIl ovoKoivWOIl. 01 TTpOO
l5oKiEe; VIO IJEAAOVTI K ~ UTTOTiIJIlOIl TaU l5oAapiou 06~VIlO'ov OE mxuTOTIl mwO'Il TOU.
I:T'l ouvclVT'lOil OTO 1\0u!3po, onlv oTToia oUIJIJTiXE ETTITTMov KOI 0 Kovo6oc;, TO TTp6PArwo
f)rav 610q>OPTlK6: I\ovw Tile; I-IVaAI']e; mwowe; TOU l5oAapiou, 01 EUpWTTO'(Kte; XWpEe;; TTP OP"'l I-lOTI~o
VTQV Via T'lV OVTOVWVlOTIKOTIlTO TWV TTpoToVTWV TOUS. I:UlJqlWvIlO'ov, AOlTTov , va oUVPVOOTOUV VIO
TIlV oT09pOTTOf'l0'l TWV OVOIJOO'TIKwv looTII..miJv aTO TOT uTTciPXOVTO ETTiTTEOO. To OTTOTEAtolJOTO
IPOfVOVTOI O'TO aX~lJo 13.1.
"n,
".
,.
DlJwe;;. 11 6ITTAWIJoTio l)v j30rt8d TTOVTO , AKOI-I'l KOI lJio I)r'jAwail 0PKEi VIO va TTPOKOAtOEI OVETT19UIJ'lTEC; E~Ai~IS. AKOAou80uv l5uo O'XETIKO TTopol51VIJOTO TO oTTofa EXO UV KmaVPOIPEf OTIl OUV
XPOVIl XPIlIJOTOOIKoVOIJIK~ 10TOpla. KOI TO 6uo OVQ(ptpoVTal OTO H.B..
To TTPWTO Eival OTTO Hlv ETTOX~ TaU O'UO'T~IJOTOe; 'B retton Woods'. I:TIll5KoETfo TaU 1960, TO
H.B. IX: MEiIJIJOTO OTO IOO<UYIO TPXOUOWV ouvoAAovwv. ME Tie; KUP[pVr'jOle; TI']t; xwpoe; va lil
OTd~ou v va <poPI-I000Uv ouaroATlKr'j 61l1-l0010VOIJIKr'j TToAITIKrl VIO IJEiwor'] TaUS (~r. E TTn TOV TTivo Ka
10.4), I'] olaT~Plloll TrtC; OTo8EpdC; IO'oTllJiac; ~OO'I~OTOV 0' OdVEIO oTT6 TO aNT KOI OE 61ev~ UTTOOT~
PI~Il OTOV, oIJWC;;, a roAAoC;; UTTOUPY0C;: ~WT EP IKWV 61OTUTTWOE OIJ<PI~OAfEC;; ylO Til crro8EPOTrtTO T'le;
OTEpAivoC;;, AOVw Tilt; OTTpo8ulJioe;; Tile;; BpnOVIKr'je; Kuj3EPVr'jOEWC;; va AOPI TO oTTopoiTIlTO lilOp8wTlKO
TWV EAAEIIJI-IOTWV IJtTPO, 01 oyoPEC; apXloov va olJq:IlPdAAouv VIO T'lV oUVEXIOil Tile; 6lE8vous UTTOOTIl
pi~EWe;. 01 TTPOOI)OKiES UTTOnlJrl0WC;; EVTOeilKov KOI, UTTOKUTTTOVTOS oTO OVOTTOIPEUKTO (<p0PIJOVr']
14 .9), 11 O'TpMvo UTTOTIIJr']9IlKE KOT017% OTIS 18 NOEI-I~piou 1967.
To 6EUTEPO TTopo5EIYIJ0 EivOi TTEploaonpo TTpompoTo, OTTO T'l OKO[TiO TOU 1990. Mlo l)~Awort
TOU TOTE liIOIKrtTr'j lTle; rPIJOVIKr')C; KVTP1Kr')S TpOTTt~TJe; OTi I)EV I-ITTOpOUoOV va OTTOKAIOTOUV UTTOTi
I-II']O'Ie; oTOV TOTE EUPWTTOi"KO M'lXOVIOI-iO IuvaMoVI-l0TIKWV IOOTIIJI WV (MIl), OTTOTtAEOE TO t VOUOIJO
Via TIlV TEAIK~ ETTf9EOll TWV KEp60O'KOTTWV, aTToTEAEol-io Trlt; oTTolat; ~TOV 11 t~olioc;; Tile; O'TEpAivoe;
OTT6 TOV MD O'Tle; 16 I:rnTIJ/3pfou 1992. nEpIO'ooTP<; AETTTOlJtpIEe; aTO tveETO 16..4 "George So
ros KOIIl Kploll TTJe; ITpAivoe; TOV I Emtl-li3Plo 1992".
O L napaYOVTES "TO "x~~a 14.2, Ot o1[oio L E1[~pEa(ouv ns npoaSoKlE<; Yla n<; mJvaUay
~anKts laOTL~U:S, O";(ETil;oVTat ~E 8E~AIWS~ O'KovollIKa ~ EYt8~ . napa mina, aE 1[OA~
XEPl1I(6)O"El<;' Kat b'l O"E nEp l1t'[<i>o"El~ O"uvaAA.a.y~a'tlKrov Kpi.O"EWV, 8'l~lO\)pyd'tat 11 E\trU1I(O
a~ on at rrpoCl80KU:<; Clx~~aTi(ovTat au8aipEta. [1<; AOYIKO mJ~rrtpaa~a, ym T~V 1[poam
<ria T~S SlE8VODS OtKovo~ias an6 T~V L810Tporr~ mJ~1[EpI'POpa TffiV ayopwv, rrpOTElVEWI ~
A~tV~ IlttPffiv y Hl ~dffi~ lffiV E1[l1l1WaEffiV l ffiV IlETaPOAWV lffiV 1[pOaSOKlwv. E1[ElS~, EV
A.A A V"COUAlho,
32
M6AuVIJ'l (Contagion).
XP~I,/a,OOIKOVOIHK~ Jl6AVVI1'~
(Contagion) avacpEpUat
GT~
fluiI50"'l OtKovofllKWV su
OlKOV0J.ltKOU<; ~
cIA&
AOUe; bEC>flOue;. Ot bEC>floi avacpEpoV1al ato tC>O~uyto tpsxouawv GUvaUaywv, 01lWS, yta
napclbaYfla flEYaAo Sfl1l0PtO flSWSu twv 1IT\PW~ofltvOlv XolpWV ~ KOtVEe; ayopte; yta ta
EsaywytKa llpolovta tOUe;, mo IC>O~UYtO xp~flatOOtKovOfl'KWV GtlvaUaywv, Ka8 we; Kat c>S
1!OAlttKOUe; sEaflOUC;.
H miac>~ eLVaL mte; avall,uaC>0flEYEe; xWpEe;, GU~8we; fllKpte; aE OIKOVOfllKO fl EyE
80C;. 0, aU;(VEe; aVQ(I'OpC; aE DIOfl~xavIKte; XWpEe;, fllKpEe; Kat flEYclAEe;, a1l0HAOUV tvbaSll
Kat Ullv8Ufll"'l on Kaflia xwpa bEY EXEt avoaia C>to U1!O au<;~,~c>~ sisoC; floAtiVC>SOle;.
H flOAuVa'l S1llSpcl fltaw SUo KUpiOle; KavaAlwv: tWV llpOaSOKlwv y ,a avwYOlvlmt~
ullotifl~"'l Kat to aC>cpaAlmpo KIVSUVOU. AVaAUTtKOlpa, ~ u1l0,ifl~C>~ lOU VOfliC>flawe;
fliae; xwpae; s'lfltOUpysi aV1aywVtc>nK6 llAEovtKt'lfla y,a m 1!po'iovm ,~e; aTte; blE8vsiS a
yopte;. Au,o S~flloupysi Kiv'ltpO yta tpitEe; XWpEe;, Ot 01l0iEe; Esayouv napoflola llp0'iovta
J.lE t'1v EV A6yw xwpu, va un:otl\..l~aouv to v0J.ll(j!.ui lOUe;.
AXO)ll1 Kat ay 01 Apxtc.; tWV tpitrov xcopciJv 6\1 EXDDY xUJ.lla tetOLO np68EO"ll, OL 61
8vde; ayoptc;, EllaS~ S,aDAtllouv to Kiv'l'PO Kat WI' a;(UIKO 1lElpaC>flo, ausitvouv t'lv 1ll
8avo,~ta u1l0Ttfl~aEWe; tOUe; vOfliC>flaWe;. Ot Apxte; ,wv ,phwv XolPWV ~ 8a 1tttPE'I'OUV
IllY U1tOttJ.lll(Hh ~
CJUVE1tOYOVtUI Yla
J.lE
Ot1 auto.
'Htav 'l fl1lElpia t'le; Kivae; mov allo~xo ,wv auvaUaYflanKwv Kpic>swv 'wv xwpwv
N.A. Aaiae; 10 SUlPO Esafl~vo ,ou 1997.
H flOAUVC>'l fliaw tWV llpocrSOKtWV U1l0Ttfl~C>EWC; flllopd va AEltOupy~aEl Kat xwpie;
10 "'OIXEio t~e; avWYWVtGTtKo''ltae;. Et'lv Kpic>'l ,ou EUpW1!a'iKou M~xavtGflou EuvaA
AaYflaTtKWV [C>OTtfltWv, to KClAOKaipt wu 1992, 01 EY,SIVOflEYSS aflCPtDoAie; yta ''lv ruo
Swa~ t~e; llpocrlla8dae; Elaaywy~e; ,ou supw aUS'las n c; llPOc>SOKu:e; yID ullotifl'lC>'1 'wv
'~e;
V0J.llU\lCttWV '[lOV xroprov - J.lEAWV tvuvn tOu r EpJ.lCtV1KOlJ ~l6.PKOU. B)J;rr'r8 crXEtlKU !T'\
cru
V1ofl~
avacpopa C>'O tv8no 14.11 , Kat Asmofltp"se; a10 tvSno 16.4 "ES1a!;ovtae; ,~v
ASlO1!lC>tla Evoe; Eum~fla1Oe; Target Zone".
'Oc>ov ucpopa mo ac>cpuAlc>tpO KIVSUVOU, '1 aSuvaflla ESU1!'1p1T)aSOl<; tOlv xpsUJv fllae;
xwpae;, aKofl~ Kal flIKp~e; as OIKOVOfllKO flEySSOC;, flllOPSl va E1J:'lPScla" apv'1TtK<l ,oue; S,
s8vEie; SllsvSu,te;: Na ,oue; Kavel va ava8wp~aouv tle; EKtlfl~C>ElC; 1ODe; ylQ t'lv m8avOt'l
ta "'WxeUaEOle; Kat <lA).,wV xwPWV - XPwa,illv, flE a1!O,tAafla va i;'1'OUV U'l''1A01Epa a
acpaAIC>tpO KtVSuvou aKOfl'l Kat allo xwpse; 01 01!Ole; SEY EXOUV SWC>El ,~v llapafltKp~ tv
SEtS'l y,a tttOlEe; SuaKOAlee; Kat OUtE 'x0UV 10V llapafllKpo SWfl0/C>Xta'l flS t'lv ntWXeU
c>aau xwpa.
XapaK1~pIC>TtK<l Eival m llapaSsiYflata C>wv lliVaKa 14.2. H aus~c>'1toU aC>cpaAi
'npou KIVSUVOU llsplypacpstat fIE toy opo "Msiw"'l t~e; TIpoota8tawe; yw AV<lA'1'1''l Klv
Suvou" ("Global Reduction ill Appetite for Risk").
33
~I'
KOlvt<;;
Tpiw;
XWptC;
APXIKO
KpfOI1
n'>"I1VEicro
Xwpa
PwO'roTIlTO all<;
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Kcvoi nlOTllntc;
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np06108tO/:u,x;: VIa
Avci:M}tp'l KJv6Uvou
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--
MIKpO
BpO\IAio
--
MIKpO
1995
XOVYK KOVYK
--
--
Iv60vr)oia
MOAoloia
lIAlTmivt<;
MIKpO
Mn<~_
MIKpO
N. KOPEO
OX'
Y"'~A~
Mn<pO
MtYOAO
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L-Xa~l]A~
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XOVYK
KovYK
ME9KO
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I:tllJ(lWOE1C;.
1. nrw~: World Economic Outlook, llrE8vtc; NOfJro~oTII(6 TOfJlO (llEKt fJ~prOC; 2001)
2. H Pf:UOlOTt1TO ~(TpiTOI w< TTOOO0l6 HlC; o~io~ TWV XOpTOlUAoKiwv TWV 'Hedge Funds'
6u8:i Oll') XWpa.
un
)( (1./1
TO
oTToio
dX m;v
DAtov XapaKTDPlCHlKO Eivat TO lIap6.sely~a T~<; lITWXEUaEW<; TD<; Pwaia<; tOV Auyouaw
1998. DpoKnAaE aU~D<f1) tau acr<paAienpou KtVOUVOU aE XciJPE<;, OlIw<;, D BpaSlAia, TO
MESlKO Kat to XOVYK - KOVYK. Kat at TpEi<; XciJP E<; OV EXOUVKOlVa mivopa, OUtE ppiaKo
VTat "'DV iOla YEwypa<PlK~ 7rEPlOX~ ~E T~V Pwaia, ciJenE va qlOPCLtat KavEi<; on 7rOAmK~
aatnaEla aE aun'!v, ).Oyw tD<; OlKOVOfUKTt<; KpiaEw<;, aa tl<; E1I11PEasE. 11v EXOUV Kat E~lIO
PlKOU<; ocr~OU<;, ciJ<ITE va qlOP 6.Tat KaVE[<; on D Kp ia~ TD<; Pwaia<; ea T~ ElIDP,aSE ~taw
TOU E~7rOPlKOU KavaAlou, O~AaOr1, xa~DAOt'PWV E~aywyciJv at 07rOiE<; aa 7r~pEaSav apv~
nKn tDV atKOVO~lKit tou<; avn1ItlJSD Kat tDVOUvatOtDta E~u7rDPEtr1a Ew<; tWV XPEciJv tOUt;.
Em7rAtov, Ol tpEi<; XciJ PE<; ev EiXav KO LVOU <; E~7rOPlKOU<; Etaipou<;, tpiTE<; XciJP E<;, ~,
crw 1'WV onolwv Sa nllPclSOVtav IlIlEcrW<; ano tl1v Kpicr'l t11<; PooO'ia<;. Ow Kat K01VOU<;
lUaTeotE<; Ol o7roioc, Ex0Vla<; u7roenEi SDfl1s<; <TI'1 Pwaia, aa 7rEptKOmav tD xp~ flatOeOtD
a~ tWV V AOYW xwpciJv. Autit ~ 7rEptKOmj, to tcroouv a~o TD<; EKPO~<; KE<pa).aiwv, Sa ava
YKaSE T~ V ).Oyw XciJPE<; va ausitaouv Ta EmtOKlo. TOU<;. EmlIAEOV, oc CUO alIa n <; tPELs,
BpaStAia Ka, XOVYK - KO VYK, Eixav U'l"IA~ pEUatOTDta.
Dapo).a aUta, Kal Ot tpEi<; ElIDPEaaT~KaV aPVDnKa, fl,aw tOU U'l'~AOT'POU acr<paAi
crtpou KlVOUVOU.
Avaou(vuOVtru; tllV Otax,povlK6tll1'a tOU q>atVOIlVOU, otav 11 tpa1,[EStK~ KPtO'11 crtllv
Auatpia ~Eta06a~KE en'lv fEPflavia tDV lIEpiooo TD<; flEynA~<; UCPE<lEW<; WAtlIEtE TO tvaE
to 6.8 "H MEyaAD I1lESvit<; Y CPE<lD tD<; I1EKaEtia<; TaU 193 0" Kat tDV U7rO-vOtDta "H Ta
paXciJoD<; DEpioeo<; tOU MEaOlroAtflou, 19 19 - 1939" <TIDV VOtDta 13.6), fEPflavoi laU
VOVt<; otarunwvav tllV EKtlllllO'11 Ott at otSvEi<; 1tEYOUtE<; OEY Ilnopoucrav va ~xwpicrouv
to BEpoAlvo alIa t~ BU'VVD Kat tD Bouoalr'aTD. E<;itVla xpovla apyoTEpa, atDv KpiaD TOU
NlLI to 1992, LouDOO( taU VOVl<;, UlIO tDV lrfEml tWV olEavciJv E7rVeuTciJv flEtn t~V Kpiml
crtll <Dt'Aavoia, 1tapanovouvtav Ott Ot otE8vd; n EVoUtt~ OEY Ilnopouaav va ~xoop(crouv
Tt<; LKaVelVaptKt<; XciJPE<; TD flla a7ro t~V an~ (PAtlIETE TO tvaEtO 16.4).
A<; crrlllE1W8i, E1tl tau nupovro<;. on niaoo Kat a1[o 'W oUo KuvaAta tll<; 1l0AuvcrE(j)~
uTrapxouv at 1[POcrOOKiEC; tooV ayoPeDv. AUtE~, 01l00C;, o\! crXIlllatlSOVtat EV KEYeD, OUtE
lrPOEPXOVtal alrO telOrp01tT] ml~7rEPlCPOpci TWv ml~I-U:TEXOVTWV crn<; eu:8vEi<; XPDflatayo
pt.;, tWV KEpOOaKOlrWV mlfllrEptAaflPavofltvwv. Auto TO olroio OtaKLVOUvEtJOUV, TU xp~
!lata tOUe;, EivCll1l0AU GIlllavtlK6 yta va napaaup80uv crE t Et Ota auIl1le:PL<POpa,
A.A. A vr~ouA<iTo<;
34
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A3" o<)o>nriroM C)Ol!)(l)M n01 'UdUD}D){ (l01 ml}'OAClA Ala UlA lD)t 119 '~XdV )11 Dl.t 13Q.X01
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'(I)d ? l(l)A!) IllO '~l "3D<pllLllL3 ',AIlBIlL , \1 AnoJ)J.O~OlLn D9 ' ~J.IlnIl IllO'?' IllJ. A<pXdy A(I)l
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-OlL '~1110AO~10 '~l '~Aonn ~D3e9dlL Il)nm AnoX;J ASg ,?Xdy 10 AD lO)( un9~ y 'OlIll1D;r'(
-310lLIl OX101D)lAO MOX? '~)(1ll'(01L '~)(1110AO~10 '~l ~J.Il'('(Il IllJ. '3))(ogDodlL 10 lO)[
'SIl)110AO)(10 ,~, IlI3A?J.OBIllL )3'(31OlLIl '911Dld(l)e~'(1L '9'(~Jttn 0 ll9 31)39
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cruve~KE<;
OUOOUV <1S fllKpe<; xmp~ arrooq oflEvol XUflTj AOtEpu aoepaAlOtpU KTVOUVOU Kat pEUOrOTIl
'BateD, ytU rrapaoly~a, 6n Ol 1tEVOUtEC; ~lltOUV ampaAlatpO KWOUVOU 6% )'la va .
p~tpa
1tap6~01eDV 0~oA6yO)v tOU A~pIKavIKou oll~ocr(OU tiVat 4%. ZlltOUV, o~roc;, acrepuAlatpO
KlVOUVOU 5% otav II an:6SoCITj nov o~oA6yO)v tOU AjJplKavIKou 5tl~ooiou lVal 30/0.
Mia npoepuv1lS naptvEpYELU EivUl Otl TO KOcrtO<; OUVElCJ~OU rTj<; MEE,lKUVlKTJ<; KUPEP
flStUpaAAetUl nSplGGorspo an6 on TO avricrtolXo KOOtO<; TTj<; AflEPlKUVlK~<;. l:to
1)1[0 ou!;~tTjOTj napaolYflu, Tj unooo<1Tj tWV 0flOA6yooV toU MsE,lKOU fllmaTjKE Kata 3%,
v~aEOO<;
36
(~3 %+5%) ,
evw
~ olIoooa~
1400
-1200
Brazil
1200
-1000
Republic 01
, MalaYSia
Korea
1000
- 800
600
COO 400
200 -
01
Tlrrri:
200
Colombia
1997
98
99
2000
01
1997
98
99
2000
01
ItiVOIIl'1
Ol uvuntpw E1tlOpacrEtc,; dVUl evcSEtK'tlKt~ tOU EUPEW<; <paollato<; tUlV <PUlvollVWV ta orrola
Ilnopouv va avaAu90uv IlE til cruvEhlKTJ looouvalllu<; tWV e1rltOKlwV.
ovaAua~
So lVat
"A~ptaTEP~
UlIOOEIY~O
Mundell
Fleming. Me auto, au ).mopouv va IlAct1190uv 01. E1rLntWOct<; ot 6All tllv OlKOVOIl{a Kat
6XL 1l0VOV ota ErrltOKlU Kat crn~ cruvallay )latlKt~ lOOtlllle<;, orrwt; YlVC'tUl IlEXPl twpa Il
xp~Cllj T~S I;UVSijK~"
I;~fllwaoTE on 1I0UE, OlIO ns ev AOYWEmopaalS eiVOt EKT", TOU EAEyXOU TWV Ap
xwv T~, Utopia. KOlIole, alIa oUTEs, ~aAlma, fle lIpOEsapxouaES T~ vOfllaflonKij 1I0AtTlKij
TWV ~EYalwlv xwpwv, Tl, auv8ijK, aTt, oteSVEl, xp~flOTOyopt<; Kat T~V xp~~aTOO tKOVO~ t
Kij flOAUVCllj, oev EXOUV KOflio aXECllj ~ T~ XWpO. AUeS, miAt, 01I"", Ot lIpoaoOKieS TWV
m evouTwv, lVOl ouaKOAO va rrpopAE<p80uv.
Avaq>EpE'TOl OTT} m:/.... 152 IOU P,P).iou Pop Internationali sm, 1'0'\) Paul Krugman (MIT Press, 4'1
avunl1twO"Tl, 1996).Tu KiIH."VU OE ay1C\JAl; EivaL C1tE~llYTl).lanKt.~ 1tPOcrB~KE: S '[ou yp6.cpov'[Q~.
37
H Utopia, orr,"s Kal Ka8 ~lKpij xwpa, ~1[Qpl va urro<Hi ap"'lTlKts cruVErrtt<;, <JX
KUl ~ lapots KUl ~ KpOtS KljlaAai,"v, aKo~~ Kal av aKoAau8i cruVTij Ot
Kava~tK{l "aAlTlKij T~V orraia mKpaTouv a[ 8t8vdS xp~~aTOyopES Kat EYKpivauv at IjlU
AaKS T~S a[KaVO~[KijS op8a80l;ias, MOlS TO 6NT. AUTES 8 Ol cruVErr\S, flrropi va 08~
TlL;6~S
'Y~crouv a KpiOT{, )1 opallOttKEC; cruVEnEIEC; ym tllv OlKOv0)11a Kat 10Ue; Kat01Kouc; tT]<;
xw
Tas
AAW Kat lIaAI, ~ alIOTAEaflaTlKOT~Ta TaUS 8a ivOl ppaXuPUI K080n Ol XOVTES TO
OlKOVOfllKO Kiv~Tpo OIKavO~lKa[ rrapoyaVTS 8a ppauv Tporra va Taus rrapaKOfl\jlOUV. Kat
flaAlOTa ~ VOfll~O TpOlIa. Ap,"yo O aun]v TOUS T~V lIpaolIa8tta txouv TO xp~flaTOOIKa
VOIlIKO uUcrtTH.l.O to arrato {)\)VX,WC; OTUltOU PYEt KOlV010)11KCt rrpolovta Yla tllV )1ElWO"l1 troy
lIao~s IjlUOOlS ~apQlWV KOOTOUS OTIS OlKova ~tKES cruvaAAayts. BMlIT OxnK<l T~V CVO
T~1O 17.3 "fIpi TOlV l:uvaUaYflanKwv fIPlOpto~<ilv".
Ev KatUKA.lOl, to taO~uyto XPll)1UtOOtKOvO)1tKwV cruvaAAaywv (vm rrpaY)lun to 1
crXUPOtEPO Kat 1tOAUrrAOK6t EPO KavaA1 )lEcrOO tOU arroiOD 11 818v~C; OlKOYOI.da Kat Ot OlE
8v[S xp~fla1Oyopts ~paL;ouv T~V OIKaVOflia KOl TIS xp~flaTayopts flias xwpas, flEYa
A~ S ij fllKpijS KOl ival aUTO TO alIaia OAES Ol X<ilPS AErXauv Kat lI~paL;auv Aty6Tpa.
'Onwc; Kat KUSE tt crIllY OlKOV0)11K~ SWI1, tinotE OV ElVal x.(Op{~ K6crto~. H cru~~EtOX.tl
aTO rraYKoofllO XP~flOTOOIKOVOfllKO oUo~fla 8~fllOUpyi 1I0AAtS uKmpic; Yla 11S fl'KptS
XWPS, ana Kat rraAAOUS Ktv8Uvaus. "Ou81:v mAOv afltYES Ka KOU, KOl rraAI. AlIaTEAd 8
~yaA~ Kat 8~ fllOUPY lKij lIpOKA~O~ ym ~ia fllKpij xwpa va ~EYIOTorralijO1 TO aljltA~ T ~S
OUilflTOXijs, AaXlOTOltOlWVTOS TOUTOXPOVOlS TOUS "XTIKOUS KlV8uvouS (pAtrrT T~V cvo
"110 17.2 "6l8v~ Errv8uTlKa KtpoAata - 6lAijfl~aTa").
A.A.
AV1~ouNho,
38
14.1 ElrACOrH ..... .................... ........................... ...... ....................... " ,....... ,.. ,.... ,...... ".,.".,., .... , 1
14.2 nEPI AnoLlorEClN "., ...... ,.. ,.".,...... ,............ ,."." .. ,',.,.,., .. ,...... ,., .. " .... ,.. ,.,." .......... ..,.. " ...... ,.2
14.4 EnEKTArEIr .... ,.................... ,................... ,., ..... ,... ,.. ,.... , .......... .... ,...... .... ,.. ,....... ... ,...... ,., 21
14.1 EIrACOrH .......... , ,......... ,",..... ,......... .. ,.,.".,. ,., ... ,..... ,...... ,.. ,,.,., ..... " .. ,......... ,........... ... ,... ,... , 1
14.2 nEPI AnoLlOrEClN .... ,.. ,........... ,., .. ,.............. ....... ,...... ,.. ,................ ,. ,.,.. ,.........
..2
Anol>ocruc; AtloypO:qlwv/EntvbuQf:wv. ..
ruvaMay}JOT1Krl Arrol)oo'l . '"
.... . .......................
........ 3
....... 6
. ..... 6
rX~lJa
Eq>apl-loy~
ATT6bl~~.
....
........................... ......9
'Ev8ETO 14.2. 01 XPIlIJOTlKtC; Pote; IJE TOU') E~WT EP IKOO<; Aoyaploo}Jo0C; Tr]<) Xwpac;
12
IUVETTEIE<;.. ...
.. 14
. 18
14.4 EnEKTArEIr
.__ ............... "." ......................... ,........... ____ .____ .
.... 2 1
...... 23
..... .. ...................
.. .. :25
K6O'Ttl IuvaMaywv...
Ecpopl-loy~ 14 .7. Iuvo.v.0YI-l0TlKof nEplOplO'l-loi KOI KOOTOe; IuvoMoywv..
.. .. 25
............... .
....................... w
Aoq)(iAIO'TPO Klv6uvou...
... 26
...27
'Ev8no 14.9.
Ayopa
. 29
npoa6oKIEC;...
.. .... ......................... 31
. ...... ............. .. 32
n~~8wpl(J~6~ ...
.. ..................... 35
IUvoljJ~...
A.A. A vr(ouAcno<;
.. ................... 37
39
'.'
KecpaAa:tO 15
15
"Rohert Mundell has established fhe foundation for the theory which dominates
proc/ical policy considerations of monetary and fiscal policy in open economies.
His work on mone/Dly dynamics and optimum currency areas has inspired
generations of researchers. Although daling back several decades, Mundell's
contributions remain oU/standing and constitufe the core 0/ leaching in
international macroeconomics.
Mundell's research has had such a Jar-reaching and lasting impact because if
combines/ormal - but sr;[f accessible - analysis, intuitive inferprefol;on and resu/Is
wilh immediate policy applications. Above all, Mundell chose his problems with
unCommon - almost prophetic - accuracy in terms of predict;ng the future
development of internaliona! monetmy arrangements and capital markets.
lvlundell's contributions serve as a superb reminder of the significance of basic
research. AI a given paint in time academic achievements might appear rather
esoteric; not long afterwards, however, they may take on great practical
importance.
How are the effec!~ of mane/my and fiscal policy related to the integration of
international capital markets? How do these effects depend on whether a country
fixes the value of its currency or allows it to floal freely? Should a counfly even
have a currency of its own? By posing and answering questions such as these,
Robert Mundell has reshaped macroeconomic theory for open economies. "
(An6 lJrV avaKoiv(t)O"I1. HIS IoU l)&IK~ S AKa&rU.l.lm; EmOl1))Hi)V 11a l11.V ppapcuO"'l.
lOU Robert Mundelillt to Bpaptio NOllnA- om O1KOVOIl IKO: TO 1999.)
(E).xuOtpI) Anooo<JT) 0 Robert Mundell EeEOE ta eqlEA-IU ym 11) 9twpia 11. onolo
KUptaPXd O"tl)V 0:0U)0'l. T'l.S vOJ..l.IOIlOtlKT1<; KUI &'l.J..l.OO"LOVOJ..l.IK~<; nOA-lttK~<; OE avOl
Ktb; OlKOV0 l.l.tt<;. H tpCUVCt t OU aValpOptKU J..l. tl) SUVal.l.1Kll T'1 o; uyop6.<; xp~J..l.atOS
Kat n o; PEA-tlatES vOI.l.IOllanK:<; CVWOIS ExEt EllltVEUOU no)J.t<; yt=VcES CPEUVlltroV .
Tlapotl Upt0J..l.El &EKOcriES sro~s, II O"UvEtoqmpa toU Mundellnupulli:vcl 7rPWt07r0pl
UK~ KUt unotEl.l tll Paoll )'\0 tll ih&ooKUA-ia tl)S ol8vouS J..l.UKpOOtKOVOJ..l.tK~S.
H EPEuvu tOU Mundell exci tOOO Eupdu Kat OtaxpovtK~ an~Xl)Ol) KU1. cniopuoTl,
OtOtt cruvOUUst E1tlOtTl,J..l.OV tK~ -o:ll6 1tp O OtT~ OtOV unw KOOJ..l.o- uvaAuoll , ),O)'\K~
~~YllOll KUeW~ Kat unOtc)J;ollat U J..l.E OJ..l..0TI cq)QpJ..l.oy~ 0Tf\ xapa ~ll "tl)~ OtKOV0 J..l.I
K~S nOA-lnK~ S Tl(XVw uno cAu, 0 MW1dell 1tfM:~ ta eEIlUW tl)S PEUVllS t ou ilL
ucruv~8\Otll - oxcS6v 7rpoq>llllK~ -aKp(pElO avacpoptKU J..l. ns ~AAoVTIK{:~ ~v..i
~lS OtIS St8vd~ OIKovoIlLKe~ OX:OEt~ KUl n<; 8u:8vEiS xpI)~UTUyOpi: ~. H cruvEI0<P0
pu TOU unotAtl aoto\VtlJa-rTl, 1l0pTIJpia Tf\<; OTl,J..l.UOlu<; Tf\<; PUotK~S EpoJV11~. :EuXV6.
Ot uKaoll~a"iKts IlEllicS q>u(vovrUt UO"XETI;S ~E TOV npuy~a1\KO KOO ~O Kal xwpi~
npUKtIKt<; EcpUp~Oyt<;. nptV, OIlWS, nEpaOElnOAU<; x.pOvo<;, uno&EII(vUElat on txouv
llyclAll JtpaKnK~ oll~aoia.
Tl ro<; 10 uJt01d.io~ata tl1.<; VO lltOllattK~ ~ Kat ol) ~OmOVO ~LK~S ltOA.tTlK~S OXed
sOvtOt ~E TI)V OAOKA~PWOll tWV OIEOvWV xpllJ..l.atayopwv; n w<; auto. tU U1fO"tE:A.t
OJ..l.OtO E~OptOOVTat uno to d.cv 'l xwpa OKOA-oued nOltnK~ a-r09Epao; ~ Il:tUP A'l.t~ S
tOOtl~io<;; A~isE I lOV K01fO J..l.ia xwpo va tXCt .5IKO trIO; VOI.l.I0J..l.U; 0ttovtoS EPWt~IlU
Ta omJ)<; outa, 0 Robert Mundell aA.)~a~E t'1 J..l.OKpOotKOVOIlIK~ 8Eropiu Yla UVOlKtES
OIKOV0I.l.lD;.)~
To 1tUKVO OE \IVOlEo; Eloaywyu(o KdllEVO OiVEI Ilia npWtl) uio8WITl trov 8EIl(ltWV,
TU onola Ou E~EtuOtOUV , Kat tll~ npaKttK~S u~ia<; TOU<;. To EUPOS tou<;, OJ..l.WS. ElVUI
lu;yaAUt cpo mro Otl \)1tOVOdtal <JtTlv avmCOlVWIJIl 'ITlt:; w\l '1 ~hl( ~<; Al(ubllllia<; Em
ITtIlIlOW, Km 1tm<; va )lllv dval aq>ou '1 Opa)latlK~ UVa1tTU~'l t ())V ou:8vciw EnEVOUtl
Kmv 1(E:<pOA.(ll())V ano n<; apxt<; t'l~ bO'(l,crlW; toU 1990 txouv aA.A.6.~E: t Opa)latlKO tl~
cruve~l( c<; ()!IlV 1tayKocrl-lla OIKOvo)lia Ku8w<; KaL to\)<; I(avovc<; tOU nmXV10lOl);
TIapa t a"Ota, to unoblYIlU Mundell - Fleming nUpU)ltvf.1 tva E~a\ pEnKo Kn"Ul
OEUtll(O cpyauio yta tllV Katuv6'1cr'1 tOU 1tOAll1tAOKOU KocrllOU ()!OV 0 1[010 ~OUIl .
15.1 Elaaywyr'J
To KliPlO au~llepao~a rou ulloli (y ~aro, MundellFleming ivat on ~ia <;WTp'Kq
(Jopp07ria,
nv,
Ii~Aali~,
BP
= CA + CF ;<0,
SttEl crE KlvTJCHl tvav uut6~ato crta8 EponOl11tlKO )l11xuvlcr )lO 0 onoi~ Sa n.:iVtl va tTJv E
~aAEl,a Kat va 1tava<ptpa c(rorcplK11 I(Jopporcia.
BP =CA + CF=O.
H q>ucr11 autou tou )l11xaVlcr)lOU Esaptatat an6 to crUcrt11~a cruvaAAaY)lattKcDv lcrOtl)lLcDv .
~UYKKpl~Eva, U1l0 mSwrws oraS p wv lO OTl~lWV AlTOUPY(
~ eaUl t~, VO~la~aTlK~, I(U.
KAoljlopia" V
W U1l0 mSwtw, ~ta~A~tWV laon~lwv ~eaUl t~<; ovo~aanK~S laoTl~ia,.
Dapa t~V allAOt~ta tOU au~llpaa~atO" ~ avaAua~ toU V
AOYUl ~~xaVla~Oli Kat
tUlV aU~A1lllipaa wv tOU ~ t~V OlKovo ~(a Kat tL; xp~~atayope<; ~ ia<; xwpaS Ijlaivuat
Tr')
I..HeV
alKOVC
30~
11
l' ,
n
I~
ua
va Uyy{l~,El ta 6p\O tou aouvatou . KOI tOUtO Olon, tK npWTTJ C; o' tWe; tOUAaXlcrtOv, anOl
t d tat flia llA~Swpa IitaIjlOp nKWV unolilYflat Ulv: 'Eva UnOIi lYfla Yla KaS ouvliuuaflo
r UlV llUpafltrpUlV Ol olloi<; .OXtU;Ovt at fl TIl At rouPyla tou. EVOlKTlKO t~<; nA~Swpa<;
HOV urrO Otly~atWv tiVat to cruVtxte; q>ucr~a cruvaUaY)latlKc..lW tcrOtl)llWV (PAtrrttt tTJV E
vot~ta 13.5 "LuaTliflata LuvaUaYflaTlKWV la OTlfllWV - LUvtOfl~ Dplypaljl~"), ym KaS
Oll)ltio tOU orrolou arralttltat oLacpopEtlKf] aVCtAuo11 .
Depav tTlS auvaUaYflanKlis l<lOTlflla<;, an , aXTlKeS llapa~t pOl ivat to OIKOVO'
f.iIKO f.ityc8o~ ~lUC; xwpae;, to anoia npocrotop(C;El KUtU nocro autTt )lrropd va en11peucrEt n e;
olt8vtte; ayopt<; o.ya8wv & V7U1PCJlWV Kat avvaUaYf.io.ro(, 11 a~pavorcoi"qf/, 11 onoio )lrro
pti va lIpOOtatwO"El rrpoowplv6. t11V t YXWPlO OlKovo~ia o.no n e; cruvnEtc; )liae; l;ro,[E'Pt
Kite; aVloopponiru;, Ku8we; Kat 01 (Jovillayjiat/KOi JCepIOPI(Jjiof, Ol 01tOiOl 1tTJp EaC;OUv ne;
KlVtlOlC; trov ol8v<ilv E1tevOUtlKc..IW KEcpaAa[oov .
TtooEpte; rrUpa)lEtpOI, ~E ~EYa.AO apt8~0 m8uvwv Katacrrucr Eoov Yla tTl" Ku8E )lia,
a~~a[Vl ouv~nKa 6,lllPO aplS~6 ananou~lEvUlV U1l00lYflatUlv. rLU napa lielYfla, ~ aopa
vOlloi~a~ flllopd va elVat OAlKli li ~plKli. Lt~V llpwr~ llp[1ltUla~ , ~ mKovo~ia alloflo,
VWVEtOl Katnpocrtat EuEtat 1tAit pWC; urro tlC; OlalCU)lCt.vm:t<; tau LaoC;uyiou nA11pw~wV Ka8'
6AO to lilaar~~u 1l0U olapKei. Lt~ OutP~ llpi1ltUla~ , npoatat u t Ul flPlKW<;. To flIt
y S 09' O r~<; llpoataa[a<; ~apt6.ral ano to ~aS (lo aopavonolliOlo",<;: llX, 30%, 50%,
70% rou nAcovaOflUto<; ~ TOU U d flflUtO<; tOU laoi;uyiou nA~pUlflwv.
'Q~(i)C;, '[0 cpatVo~ evlKa uouvato yivEtat Eq>IK"tO )..1 E tTlv avuAucr11 OUO oKpaiwv KU
tUo'[acrEwv Yla Ku9E ~ia napu~ELpo . ME auto roy tp6no )lElcDVOvrat at mSOVEe; KUtUcrtU
a t<; a Ome~l (= 2', t (aaeplS napa~tpol n[ QUO mtaotao l , yta KaS napafl t po).
KaS vola~w~ Karaata<lT], ta auflnpaa~ata Sa elVUl Evas auvouaaflo, tlDV au
~n EpUO )lUtwV YLU tt.; OUO aKpaLE<; KUtucrtCmEle;.
E1llnAeov, 0 aKOAou8mj (lVos aAyoplS~o<; napa(lEv l a llitoS Yla 01.<; n<; Kataara
Ole;, )l arrOttAcr~a 0 ap19)l6e; tWV urrOOEtY)lUtWV OUO tOOttKa. va 1ItplOpiC;ttat OE tva: to
llpOS nflliv rUlV O'lfl\OUPYWV rou , Robert Mundell Kal Marcus Fleming, 1 lovO(lai;oflVo
unoo l y(la Mundell - Fleming .
'OnUl<; Kal fl to unoolYfla ISILM, to un6 ~traa~ Mundell- Fleming ~e<pcUYl allo
ta ~tpa tWV tU1tlKWV unOOEtnLC'ttWv.. A vU~Ecra OE aAAa, avuOEIKVUEl t OY POAO twv
1tPOOOOKIWV Kat tWV OlSVWV nevoutlKcDV KEq>aAaioov . Totoutotponw.;;, )lrropEi va XPTJ<H
)lOrrOl11 9Ei yw t11v UVUAUO"l1 nA118wpu.;; crevapiwv Kat OlU'!UPUXcDV, ano ta nAOv tUTrtKU
rLa
A.A.
Av,,~ouA.x1O<;
KU~Q\lnOlC
XOntJ.CilCiYOQEC
t(O<; ta 1tA.EOV
e~(Otl1(a
XClt
MaxQootxo\lo~ia
- Ke:qXXActlO 15
1tapaoiy~an,
n<; (J'U
vaUaYflanKe<; Kpi~l<;.
LUYKKp1fl!:va, TO unoolYfla Mundell - Fleming npoepXTCll ano T~ mivSO~ TOU
IS/LM 1' T~ (J1JVS~K~ l~oouvaflia<; HOV mToKilOv. EK KClTacrKU~<;, olaT~pi T~V uA.l~ia
tOU 1tpcinou. E1tlnA..Eov, ~.I.1topf va aVaA.ucreL ta ~WtlKU crEVapLu tT]<; LIE Kat, ~aAlOta,
avaOlKVUOVtU<; tl<; 1t11ttwm:u;, 0Xl ~6vo ota 1tltOKLU, 61tw<; T] tIE, aAAu Kat OtT]V OlKO- .
vo ~ia YvlK6tepa.
H (J1JI;TtT~cr~ ~Klva 1' T~V cpuo~ TOU OTaS p01[O I~nKOu fl~XClv lcrflOU. Luvqil;TCll 1'
cpapfloy!t TOU ClAyopiSfloU avClAuow<; unoolYflaTlOv OTllv Clyopa (J1JVaUaYflaTo<; KCll
T~V nplypaCPit T~<; lcropponia<; crT~V OIKovoflia. To KcpaAaw KAiv[ 1' T~V avaAuo~ TU
1tlKWV oEVapLlOv O1KOVO~I.lK~<; 1tOAlnK~<; Kat KcmOlWV OlUtapaxwv an6 tllV ayopo. cruVUA.
AaYflaTO<;, Yla fliCl fllKPTt xwpa. H avaAucr~ Yla flEYaAll xwpa, KClSW<; Kat cruvSTOTPlOV,
T~V
crvaAucr~
TOU
crTaSponOl~nKOU
flllXClVlcrflOU Sa
avaod~l
n0111tlKO p6AO tWV (J'Uva.A.A.aYJ..latlKWV lOOtlJ.llWV, 1tpi tOU onoio\) J.liu npWt11 J-Lvia tytV
crTO KcpaACllo 13. Ev (J1JVTOflia, ~ OVOflClOTIKit lcrOTlflia aVTClvaKAa Tl<; crUVSitK<; npoocpo
pa<; KCllI;~TTtcrw<; OT~V ayopa (J1JValliWClTG<;. AUT<; iVCll anoTAcrfla TlOV anocpacrwv
EKatO ~~upiwv aVE~apI~IWV Kat E1tlOlWKOVtOOV to ll8ylOtO KEPOO<; OlKOVOlllKWV napayo
VTWV, cr oAov TOV K6crflo, ym ~aYlOYE<;, lcrClYWY<; KCll m:voucrl<; crTll xwpa TOU<; it cr
Kanma an~ xwpa.
Eav, O Ko.n01u (HLYllti, 11 (J'Uvl<Jta~tvTl tOOV uno<po.owv tou<; oe:v lVUl auv1(~<; ~ tTl
crUVSTtK~ lcropponiCl<; npoIJrpopa ~ (irr'l(J1) YlCl Ka1[OlO VOl'lcrl'a, 01 1[pocr1[aSI<; TOU<; va
UA01[OITtcrouv n <; Cl1[Ocp6.crl<; TOU<; Sa npoKClAtcrouv l'TapoA!t T~ <; ovol'acrnKli<; loonflia<;.
H flmpOATt O aUTTt Sa oO~yTtO1 6AoD<; TOU<; QtKOVOfllKOU<; ""payoVT<; va avaSwPTt
crouv lU; arroq>6.al<; t0D<; J-LE ttlOlo tpono WOl tAIKU va nEAOl Tl taopponiu. Kat (JtllV
7tOpEla, avotyouv Ot aaKoi tau AIOAOU Yla Illv ~aKpo01Kovollfa Kal 111<; xp11IlOtayopt<;.
tOU
Kl~tvOU.
A.A. AVTl;ouAa.1:O<;
r elT'
o
T
E
\7
lnbn"'tf
3D 130~J.ltgo
UDltl~J DDnO'('(l'gd3lLn
'I?)l1t\Dg'
U. mA}3 09
unCl,(
o
rll.J)1 -"Oll'r/
'od)ll 08;'
-?~
JodQ1X Stu S(lQ){]OlD)I 91L'O D}3X101D J?)lD1!>Qold311 AQODJ;JdoAD 01\ AQ.OTiOS1ll3 lO]OlL
-010 'J:;lOgl\3lL3 Snorq~ 5(0110)1 'AClOD}dlDlLDI\DlL3 01 DA A<)oTinSllL3 lO}OlLO 10 ~SDdC9X
91'0
Stu
AC980AO
'j13DIf,(001< S11 91LD SI3~I)dlLD13 S11 OriDl1i9A O1d<9X.l.3 30 AOotil?dW13ri DA A~orin91lL3 10]OlLO
lO 'S]3'(00.l.D~3 SOO.1 :mimrigA OA,~ 30 DlDnlfgom3 ~ S I3~I)dlLm3 AOOX:! Sooog 'j00'(9 \l1LD
lD13Xd?od1L SOlDriAl1'('(DAOO I)do,lo Alilo DrimrigA 01d<9Xk! rnA ltOltl~J U ' Dd319>110'(DAV
1 = 08 + , 1 + 09 =
'9dodlDOdU i,ut,,(OACl'J.
08
);doAV
00 (
:)nOI\~~ 3D I\CTlj3XIOlD
AC!l)lOIDnOld3l.1. )13D~V(Y)U
,-= ,1 - 0 1 =I.dN
09
01-= 09 - 0, = XN
:~!.OJJ.DOI3
pd0000dU
nyol\r)DOllA
10)1
o 1 :nlDrl~go"'3
OS :~!.OJ!.o~3
UDU1~Z
= i\('~"H1(T)dl.Jyu no]Anlo.o1
no! Orl.DDA93YU
Sl olx:)"~>?dl3)1 - bfnol'l.mnoo(hCiJW
Ano tl<; Mo ~L(;'aEl<;, ~ OUTP~ EiVUl a~a~, AOYW rou ~~xcrvla~ou r~<; aVTlawS
KPOOOKOnia<; (arbitrage). H npooT~ Amoupy i ~ XPOVlKij uortp~o~, KUSon
~lanKij<;
Ot l(Jay{t)y~
Kat Ol ~aywy<;.
EUEi~~aTO<;.
Y1IO WSWToo<; OTaSEPooV loon~loov, to 1IAEOV(l(Jl1a TOU LGo~uyiou 1IA~PWl1ooV So. oo~yijaEl
O lOO1[OO~ 11 to 1IAEOV(1011(1 aUS~o~ T~e; VO~lOI1(1nKij<; paoEw<;, H, Wl OUVaKOAoUS~
1IoUanM.ola aus~a~ T~e; V0l1l0~anKije; KUKAOcpOp[ae;, M. To tU l l1l1a So. oo~y~aEl aE
~Eiroa~. H av6.Aua~ So. yivEt ~E Oml1a T~V Utopia Kal to VO~lalia T~<;, TO NoValue.
I:uvExi~OVTae; TO 1Iap6.0Ely~a TOU axijl1aTo<; 15.1 , 0.<; U1IOTESi on ~ U1I EppaUOuaa
~ijT~O~ rwv 5 NVs 1IPOtPXTal a1IO tvav stvo m
:voun'] a onoio<; StAl va aYOpaOEtI1TO
xte; OT~V Utopia aUa OEV PpiOKl tvav aVHOU~paAMIiEVO or~v ayopa ouvaUaYliaroe;
yta va ayopaal w NV5 1IA~pWVOVwe; liE stvo vOI1LGl1a. 'GAOl Ol aUot Ol 01IOiOl m
Su
110uaav va ~ETaTpt\jlOUV EUpoo OE NoValues EiXav ppi KanOlov avnou~paUolievo 0 0
noioe; ijSEAE VaI1EWTP\jIEl NoValues aE eupw.
H KevTPlKij Tp6.nE~a T~ e; Utopia rrpiTret va 1Iaptl1PEl ar~v ayop6. auvaUaYl1aTOe;,
nWAooVTa<; 5 NYs I1E aVT6.UaYlia stvo V0l1l0l1a- EOW to eupw, 11 OTOXO va ESaAi\jll T~V
U1IPPUAAoUaa ~ilT~a~ . Euv oev TO KUVEl, TO NoValue So. aVaTtI1~SE~ avatpoovw<; OT~V
1Ipas~ r~v 1IOAlTlKij T~e; awSEpu<; looHl1iae;.
'Earw on ~ KEVTplKij tpa1I E~a oivl arov stvo EnEVouTij Ilia Emrayij asiae; 5 NVs K(ll
EtO'npuul to 100ocSU Va)lo 0 rupw , Auta ta rnpw npoO"ti9,svtOl ora auvaAAay~atlK6. tTl<;
anoSt~oTO. Ol ~E!apoAte; OtoV LGOAOYl0l10 T~<; 1IOpOUOl(l~OVtal KorwTtpw.
IJoS~nK6
+s
KUX:AOCPOPOUV XPll)lu
KOIvo
Xp'1~aTO Klpwna
niarUJoTI K.T.
rpam:t;oov
KUPCPVll!lKCt o).16~
Anyu
AAA~ 1tlcr!(lJOI~
Kataetocl~
TpunEscOv
EmmyTt +5
MaAICJtO, '1 UlJS'lOT) trov o:uvoUay~anK61v 01t09e:J..10H.t)V eivat tOT) J..1t to 1lAOVaO~a
tOU loo~uy iou 1[A'lPW~roV . fiapaOtanKO,
Aul';~o~
:l:UYOAAa.nlattKOOy
AnoSEl1arwv
(IJAeovao~oJ
Io o~uYlou
nA~pWI1WV
o I';tvo<; mevoutfj, OVtaUUOEl ~v E1IlTOyij I1E I1ETo X<; 01';(0, 5 NVs n<; onoie; oyopa~El
01I6 toV yxooplO E1IEVouTij K. MaKpuxtp~.
o K. MOKPUXP~<;, EV ouvEXEio, KOtaStT[ T~V E1Inoyij
OlKOY O/llKO KlYTrrpo ya t o Kay~ Ko9 0n
EYW 0110 It<; KOta9tol<; Ke:pO(~l tOKOU<;.
A.A. A \I1~OIJAO:TOC:;;
ano
OT~V Tpa1IE~O
BetaBank. 'EXEl
.'
01 ~EmpoAES m:OUS LGol.OYla ~OUs tOU K. MaKpuxtpD Kat tDS BetaBank rrapoUGui
sovtCl t Ka.twttpw.
K. MaKpuXEPD Kata
E1It!ay~.
[aoAoYLG~6S
[aoAoYlo~OS K. MaKpuxtpD
BetaBank
MtoXt, - 5
Kaw8ecrw;
Tpa<ts% +5
K.
MaKpuxtp~
+5
[aoAorlal10S BetaBank
EVEPYDtlKO
KUKNl<pOPOtiv Xp~~.a
E."ay~ KcvrPI~,
Kotvo
XP1W.atOK1~cOna
Tpa.tc;~,
lPOl!EScilV
K.
MaKpuxi:p~
+5
-5
KUlu8taelO; (n: K f.
T paru:l;a
+5
Kata8i:m:1S T paJt~wv
./ Bet.Bank +5
E1tltay ~
va
Kata8taw;
V1PI~
A)J,.EO:; 1tlCfTwm':IS
ME ITJV Eltttay~
+5
+5 -5
(lnocrupEtCll, at
'''pw.
[aoAoYlal10S BetaBank
EVEpYDtlKO
KUKAoq>opO-Uv Xp~J.la
KOlVD
XPl1!.wlOKlpoona
't"pa1tswv
EvcpntlKO
TiaBDnKo
Ka't"aOtcsl<; OE. K
VTPLKll T pa1t ~a
KataOtoLS
K. MaKpuxtp'1 +5
+5
Kam9tcsLS TpO:1Tts(OV
./ BetaB.nk +5
A.A. A VT~oul.(hot;
L'~V
,pam;i;a Kal
~ vo~,cr~atlKti ~acrTl
Sa
~El(;'VOVTa,
'OO1[ooa
~t
to
tlli,~~a
tau looi;uyiou
1fA~PW~WV
(15.1)
AUa ~ vo~,o~atlKt] KUKAo<popia ~tta~allitCl\ Ka,a 1[OUCl1fAacrlo 1(000, A6yW ,~s 011 fit
oupyin<; xpti~aws arro tlS EfirrOptKES ,parrEi;ES (PAt1lErE ,~v evo,~m II .?). LuvEXii;ov,Cl<;
,0 1lap6.8tty~a wu rrAtOVaO~aTOS 0100 tOOi;uylO rrA~pw~wV, ~t ,~v atis~crTl ,wv Kam8 t
crEWV m~v Kev,PIKti ,parrEi;a, ~ BetaBank aUSaVtt m a1[OSt~atlK6. ,~s Ka, EXtt 1[Atov ,~
oUvatOtllta va XOPllYTt0l 1!EplaaOtEpo. OaVEla. 'EXtt 1110'1<; Kat to Kiv'ltpo Va to KUVEt
8,otl 0' KClmStcrtlS t~S crt~v KtVTP'Kt] ,pa1rEi;a Ktpoii;ouv E",tOKIO ~tKpO'EPO tOU ,~s a
yopas Kat ot apKE,ts xwpts ,irroTt. ApXii;E' t,crt ~ 8,a8lKCloia o~~lOupytas xpti~aws arro
tlS t~rrOptKts ,parrEi;Es, wS a1lo,tAtcr~a ,~s orroias ~ VO~to~aTtKtl KUKAo<popia auS6.vt,m
Ka,a 1[OUa1lAaOlO 1[006 arro ,~v aus~o~ "lS vo~tO~atlKtlS [l<'lOEWS
'()1[WS Kat m~v rrEpi1rtWcrTl tow KU~atVO~i:vwv 'OOtl~'WV, ~ ~tta[loAtl t~s vo~,ofia
tlKtlS KUKA0'l'0pias Sa <EiVE' va tt;aAtiljlEI ,~v yevEOlOUpy6 ,~S aITia, ,~v ESwnp'Kt] avt
Ooppo1lta (B? '" 0). L'~V rrtpi1rt(j)o~ ,au 1lAtov6.o~a,os, ~ aus~crTl t~S vO~lO~atlKt]SKU
KA0'l'0pias 8a OO~ytiOEt ot ~tiwo~ TOU t1lITOKiou Kal Myw amtjs, crt aus~crTl ,~s 1lapa
YWY11<; Kat trov laayroyrov, Kat (n: J.liwOT\ IOU lao~u)' iou tPEXOUcrt.OV cruvaUaywv, 01(00<;
avaA6S~KE fit to tJ1r08ElYfla ISILM. H ~EiwcrTl wu t1lttoKiou Sa ttiVEt va XE1ponpEtioEt
Kat w toOi;tiYlO xp~~atOO'KoVO~'KWV ouvanaywv.
L'~V rrEpim(j)o~ 'au tUEi~~aTOS, AttTOUpytf
av,impo<pos oTClSEpOrrO'~tlKOS ~~
xavlo~os
IUVOqJll
To
YTT6o(lv~a
Kal AUTOj.JOTOC;:
Mundell- Fleming
Jaoi;UYlo
Icr01:q.J.ia
LT09pTj
~E
MIlXavIIJjJoC;
Mia Mana
nA~pW~WV
BP> 0
BP < 0
~l(i .
MTo~A~T1\
ba9EpOTTOII"')TIXOC;:
alEpa.
Alipavorroll'l0l'l .
ABpoVOl a
VXI J
vtJjJ a 011
VUJ (T
EW
rta va npocrratucra H\V eyxwpw OlKOVOj.lla an6 ttr; OWKUj.J.avcrEl<; Hlr; VOJ.ltcrJ..lo.tLK~<; K\)KAotpopio" Ol onoi, npoKOAoUVTOl ono n, 8l0KUfl(ivau; TOU laoi;uyiou nl.~pw flwv uno
Ka8oTcO<; o'to.8epmv tcronl..1lWV, 1) KEVTPtK~ tp6.ncl;,o. j.J.7topel va npoJ3El O a.bpa.V07CObW'l
(sterilization): LE 7Cpai;w; O:VOIla:~<; u.yopo.<;, oyopt<; Kat nWA1\aEl<; OC,lOypo.tpWV, Ol onoi<;
ovmpmiv n, 7rpOKOAOU~V<; flTO~OAt<; T~<; VOfllaflonK1\, paaEW,.
LIllY 1tepimCO<Jll1tM;DVo.O).J.atOe; tOU loosuyiou 1tAllP(l)~OOV, 11 abpaV01tOLllCTl E1tltuy
XaVETat ~E 7rwl.~an mo KOlV6 OSlOypatpwv oSio, ia~, flE T~V ouc,~a~ TWV auvonoy~on
KOOV a1tOee~(it(l)v. ME tllv 1tOOAllOll, 11 KEVtPlK~ tpU1tEsa acpatpEl anD tllV OlKovo~[a tllV
7rlnAEOV PEU(JTOT~TO T~V o7roio o~~100py~(JE ~ 00c,~an TWV auvonoy~OTtKWV 07r09Efla
TWV Kat ~ otTio OUT1\<;: TO nl.ovoaflo TOU l"osuyiou 7rl..~pwflWV.
Luv;(isoVTO<; TO npo~you~vo 7rOpaoElY~o, aTOV KOTWTtpW laol..oYla~6 TO OC,lOYPO
cpo. ivm lCUPepVllttKU O~DAOYo.. ME Tllv 1tOOAllO~ tOUe; OtO KOlVO, ~ElwveTm loonooa to
VEPY~TlK6 Kat TO 7raS'1TlKO T~, KVTP1K1\s TponEi;~,. XaplV onl.6T~To<;, unoTleETol on TO
KOlVO nA~pWV[ fl 7rlTOy~ T~, ZetaBank.
EVEpy~nKo
XpDcr6, &
~DvaMay
lJaTueD: A1toetl.w"W
+5
nl(J""[OOO"Tl K.T.
KUICAOCPOPOUV Xp~l-Ia
Kowo
XpTll-laTOKlp~rna
lpaTtF.t;wv
Aoru
-5
J\lli.:; 1WJtWO' l S
Tpam:swv
,/ BetaBank +5
,/ ZetaSaok -5
KU-me tO'l':;
EVEpy~nKo
Kud,,~opouV Xp~~ o
~atlK6. A1tOei:~mCl
KOlVO
-5
nIO''(W(T1l K.T.
K vPzpvqTtKa 0
IJ.OAoya
+5
A)J.E~ marmo-Etc;
XprH.l.mmnpcimo
rprl1lcl',.wv
KUfa8i:(n:tS T paTtE~WV
BctaBank -5
ZetaBank +5
ITapo.crtattKU,
Alipuvollo(~o~
lovt~Ovt(tl 1lEpOr[tpw
uno to YEYOVO<;
on Ol
IilUKu~6:voEU; TOU 100SUY(Ou lIA~PW ~"lV lIAElo<aKl<; lIpOKUAounUI uno OIUKU~avoEU; TOu
10ol;uy(ou XP~flU<OOlKOVO fllKWV ouvaUuywv. 01 <EAEU<a(E<; avmvuK),oUV <U; allO'l'aOEl<;
,0lV OlEevWV ElIEVDU,WV H<; '01l0(E<; 0Xl fl6vo DEv eAiyXOuv ~ KEV'PlK~ TpC11leSa K(ll ~ Ku
PEPV~O~ ,~<; xwpa<;, uUo. Kal OD)CVa 081 ~1I0pOUV KaV vu ElI~peo.00uV. E1llllAiov, 01lW<;
uvaAUe ~K e o,~v EVo,~,a 14 .5 "Ioosuyto Xp~~aToolKoVOfllKWV LuvuUaywv - E1llDpo.
OEt<;", Ot 5LO.KU~.l.(ivcrE-u.; t OU tOO ~uy{ou xpll~atOOlKoVO~tKOOV cruvaAAuywv 1tAElOTUKt.c; 0
'l'EiAoV<(ll oE lIUpo.yO"E' (lVe<;o.p,~lOU<; allo T~V XWpCl.
H ClOpo.V01[Ol'lOT\, OJ.1oot;, tXt! Opta. AEV ,.m opEl va OlUpKEGELEXt JlOKp6v, cute Kat va
lIPOO<Cl,cioEl T~V EYXWP lCl OlKOVOfl(U UlIO OlUPK~ EUE(flflum ~ lIAEov6.o~Clm lOU lool;u
yiou lIA11PW~wv.
l:T11v lI ep (mw~ lIAEovo.0flClTO<; TOU lOO!;uy(ou lIA~PWflWV, ,0 OPlO lIpO epXe,(ll UlIO
to 0l1JlOOlOVOJllKO K6crto<; tWV cruvallaYllunKWV anoOqultWv. I:UYKEKPl)..lVo., 11 KEVtP1KTl
,pcmESU T~ <; Utopia KEpoi!;El Ko.1I0l0 e1ll,OKIO yla ,Cl ODvClUClYflClnKo. ,~<; Clll09tflClm: Ei
vat t o EnrroKlo Kota8tCiEwV Ot EUPOO, OOAaplo. ~ of 01t0l00~1[OtE ~tvo VOJllOl..lo. tlVUl to.
0.1[08l1o.to., Avto riVal Kata Ko.vova xa ~rrt'A6n:po ano to E1tltOKlO lWV KU~fPVlltlKWV 0
flOAOYWV TCl olloiu XP~<HflO1l0l0UVTUl YlU H<; lIpo.<;EI<; aVOIK1~<; uyopo.<;. AuTO oe TO ElI110
KIO lIA11PWV EI ~ KUPepv~a~ 01Ou<; Clyopuo,e<; ,WV OflOAOyWV.
E a o 15.1. To A OUIOVO IKO KOUTO T Ali avoTTOI - UEW
0EWpiO"T( Tr"]V TT(pirrTWOl1 orrou TO TTAEOVaOIJO TaU loo~uyrou TTAl1PWIJWV (IVOI NY5 8{<;, 11100TJIJfo S
= NV10/, TO ETTITOKIO TaU NoValue i;w= 8%, TO ErrlTOKIO TaU EUpW if= 5%, K0111100TIIJio oTo9EpO .
.,/ Arro Tllv OU~l1or) TWV auvaMaYIJanKWV arr06(lJelTWV KOTel NV5 01<;, TO orroia OVTIOTOIX0Uv OE
500 Ka"t"o~~upUl (=NV5 olq'[NVIO/) , 11 KEVTPIK~ Tpam :(a Tr)S Utopia K(pl)r~tl TOKOUC; 25 KU
l"0V-JlUpta (= 5
00* O,05). 01 TOKOI aUToi aVTIOTOIXOUV Of: NV250 KUt"0JlJlUpta (= 2 5 "' NV I0/) .
.,/ no TO. NV5
TWV OlJo.Mywv TO orroia rrw~~eIlKav aTO rr;'aiola Tl1C; ai5pavorrol~o(wC;, 11 KU
f3,tpvllOrt rrAr)pwvEI TOKOUC; NV400 ICUt"0IiJlUPIU (=NV5 01<; .. 0,08).
au;
To (5l1IJOOIOVOIJIKO KOOTOC; Yla TIC; ApxtC;, KOI Yla Tl1 xwpa YEVIKOT(pa , ([VUlI") i5lmpopa TWV 1500 aUTwv
rroowv: NVlSO KUt"OJlJlUPIU (=NY400 - NV250).
To KOOTO<; aUTO au~dVETOI IJE TO IJ tYE80<; Tr]<; ai5pavorrol~crEW<; KOI Tr]i5la cpopa TwV 1500 ETTlToKiwv.
A.A.
AVT~ouA<iTO<;
npw
1
a ou
ple~o
Errtoij OL cruv8ijKES npo"rpopas Kat /;T]tij"EffiS "tT]v urra EStn"T] ayopa auvOljli/;ovtat <nO
t"O/;Uy1O rrAT]pm~WV, T] Otp1iVT]"T] TmV aXE"EffiV ~tasu t mv KUpimv ~EraPAT]tWv aVaYE
taL "TT]V OIp1iVT]"T] tmv KUpimv flETClpAT]"nV Ot orrois rrT]pa/;ouv tiS auVt<nw,,S t OU
Auto Ex! ijOT] yiv!, yta ~v to ",o/;uYIO tpxouarov cruvaUayrov <no KErpCWltO 7, YLa
o to tao/;uylO XPT]flatOOLKoVOfltKrov cruvaAAaYrov aTO KtrpaAa10 14.
Xaplv uKoAias tT]S au/;T]t~"ms, avaAutat to '''O/;UY1O nAT]p m ~wv TT] C; Utopia, tvro
o urroAo\1[0S Kaafl0C; aVtLaTOlX" aTT]V Eupm-/;wvT].
To tao/;uY Lo rrAT]pffi~wV tT]S Utopia rrplyparpEtat arro tT]V siam"T] (1 5.2). H flta
pa"T] arra to rrpwT o , ~ , "to O1iTPO EYIV fl pa"T] tT]V si"m"T] (7.8) yta tlS saymyt s,
(7.9) y,a tLS EtcraYffiYS, Kat ( 14. 11) y,a to "'O/;UYLO xpT]~atOOtKovO~LKWV cruvanaywv.
f,a tTl ~titPa"T] ana to OEUttpO ,~, <no tpito, au~1[tUXeT]KaV Ol EStcrwa"s (7.8) KaL
(7.9) "to tao/;uyto tpXou"wv auvanaywv.
BP.
(15 .2)
cruvij8ffiS, ra np0"T]fla +/. rravm ana KaO ~taPAT]Tij rrpo"olOpi/;ow tTl OTI'
Kij/apVTlnKi] rrioparn] ~ias ausiI"Ems TT]S tL~ijs TT]S "to
XaptV uKoAias, ov XPT]""
BP.
DEY
RP+LP,
EnlCJllc;,
to.
PNV
IS; [/NY
pc.,
PNV J
Pc,S, [NV/]
10
Uaov aCjlOp6. aTIlv oVO~aaUK" ",ou~ia, S[NV/EJ. US E~aywys, X. Kat T~V npay~anK~
Lcwn~ia, R, EiVaL E~O)yvi~ urro Ka9atoo<; ata8tp wv la01'l~lci)V Kat EVOOYEVi<; urro Ku8
atWS ~1apl.~tWv taou~tWv.
laopporrfo.
H av6.l.u~ t~S taopponias yiV1at ~ t~ j30~OEta tOU ax~~aTos \5.2. LE aUTO, Ot oElKtES
A, B Kat r npoaotOp il;ouv US EVOOYEVEiS ~Empl.~tts.
Ix~~a
15.2.
laopporriac;
iA . -.... ........... .
~iA
7--------------- f B
Y
EIOOOr'lj.JG,
napaywy~
lVOI 0"1:; 1
to E1UtOKtO.
iA a~t6.pl.~l0
=:> CF.
= CFA
BP.
fta va 1tavt 1.8Et TO taol;uylO ltl.~pwllwv (Je t(J0pp0ltia. ~ lliw(J~ lOU t(Jol;uyiou tpEXou
awv (JUvaUaywv nptnet va avttamO~t(Jti a rro ",orro(J~ aUS~ (J~ TOU l(Jol;uyiou xpl1~aTo
OlKOVOj.l lKCllV cruvaUaymv, CF. f lO. tllV uArulaia a7W tltltUl a.u~l1(nl lO\) tyxwp(ou ll LtO
11
<:1
YV @
D9
'AN!
'ODI911l!3 Olct(!JX..t3 01
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-lriOA l.i 'A(J)!)(011l!3 A(J)l (I)o~n D}TIOAO)(10 IpnlonAodu AUl 13Jl]3dl.ill3 ~l1'''(Olt ~llOnmTIOA
u.
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So "OAodX9.lnOl IOlJ\oi\jA 09 So!docboy)ln>l ~1)>ll1orlotr10/\ ~1J1 1J01J~oo IJ 10)1 S~AMADdoll ~IJJ. IJDIJ100
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nOl UOOdQjll\C ~l(T)Qlonyo AUJ. 313ll~Y Ej) S~AMAodoll SUl LIOU~OO V)lOIQDlD SI,uno ~3 U 10)[ "!!lAOllOQ
/\MjOorlIJQ i\(T)1 uDI.J~OO U S'!'90)[ ' ~)lI.lIYOll ~)llrtOAOI.oOrtIJQ 1)[1l01)l3ll3 J\1J.lD r;>dod>o 32 i\OOO
'OrtlJlOl)lQ Q>lI/\odX ort01l\00 olA 3100 ~AMAodoll i\1.J1 TJot;l3dlJll3 0/\ J3dollnll3Q 1))111
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-3 U 10)1 1 3~!X do 'e!dOln SUl OI)[QIW3 01 10131\C'!'lIJrI Oi\ 10)1 oJdodloY)ln)[ ~)[u.orlDlnoll U I013i\9~nO OA 13~
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' S~ )[UlyOll S~)[llorlDlnOI\ S~)lllDl)(3ll3 SUl 0ld9A3.o 01 C)110 SOlJ\o~jXdv "i\MJ.Ql\oA3A i\Ml SOjXnoyuyyo
~~)llAodX SUl UOol~~3 i\Ul QllO 13llJ.O)lodll 0ldl)A3.o Md1.1.(T)AO 0.1. 3rt SU)I~9AnD SU.l 0JJ\Mdlrln.o H
'01onl;dX SnOl 130C'!'lM A3 AOJ\OX~ 09 ~31/\oA9dOll !O)(lrtO/\O)lIO 10 :!3gr1no 0/\ !3dollrt /\3Q ' 17~
0IoYJ')dl3)1 OlD lJonY!?i\o /\UJ. 3rt o/\(T)mr10.0 ' S(T)r19 '91nV "1J)l1)9AnO U 101321)lgodoll 01\ I013l\jD
'Od319yLH10X 10i\)3
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S~)llllyOll S~)llrlOi\OIDorlIJQ ~~)lI.I.Dl)(3113 ~1J1 nOjdO/\30 nOl , 3 013r1IJD 010 'd7 + dCJ + J{ 3r1 00] -SM
3D9dQI1/\0 S~l(T)Q[Dnyo SUJ. nOQ91d3ll SU1 10)[ SUI\~no/\ogrlDYld3llr1nD- 1101.1\1;11 10i\]3 DB e!dOln SLIl
01)lC)lLll3 01 S3jnUOOI S~d3BO.lD 9lln 119 13.1..l4ygodll U)[~BAnD U f!')i\3 :i\M!)l01Ill3 SDjnOl\nQoDl U)lI;9AnO
lu 3rt Q.logrlno IM)3 i\3Q ~M3rhC) SIJJ.C'!'ldll )13 0IOllo O.l 1111 13Xdl)lln Old9l\30 Oi\3rtf)oAlJodll OI)Q oq
>I .
9"nl 1 3
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LUVEncil~, Kat urro Ko6Otw~ )ltUPATJHDV toot1~llcilv to EmtOKlO loopporriuc; ELVOL i NI'
" ic + RP+LP. Ev a VTl9ott, O~WS, flt TIS maStpts "'OTl~ltS, Kani T~ olapKtla TWV a AU
mOWTWV aVTliipaowv Sa tiVOl E,5" 1 '" S, WI, ~ q)Qp~oYTl T~S <Y1JV9TlK~S looouva~{as
tWV ErrttOKlwv, iNV;;t;. if + RP+ LP.
Q 1IiVaKas 15.6 <Y1Jvolj/l!;a TIS EVOOyvdS Kal t~,"YEViS w:raDA~TES y,a mlOT~~a~
TODATlTWV 100T1fllWV. ria tuKOA6Tp~ mlYKP"''1 flt TIS moSt pES 100Tl~iES, 01 fltTaD)'TlT&;
01 orr01E<; OA"-a.~OUV orro EV50YEVE1<; OE E~WYEVEi<;, ~ ovnotp6cpw~, EmollJ1oivovtU1 Otllv
9E0'11IOU dxav OTOV 1I{vaKa 15.3 ~t 011IATl o1Uypa~~loTi (- ).
EvOEI~'l
MtTa~A~TES
Ayopa
EVOOYEVts
AyaOwv & Y7r17P(flWV AD, C, YD , S" TA. SG, 1M, NX.
CA, AS. Y, I, i,
X.R
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22
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BHMA
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nO.\ITIKri
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23
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-3 Ac:>dD9D~ 'OJl lWOJ)3ri H ")OJ3D~lU) )lU lLDlt~~D AUl )OJd~'(1l13)jri9DlDllAD 'Ac:>AOJ!.D013
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AOJl UO(l]j3ri )(I)30~rillDAD )Ul (1),1.1''( H "00l ~OltrijlDAD )DlA,!,,(mlOdll 1D~ X>lOriAI},(,(XlAOD
I}dO!.D AUlO Dri01rigA O1dc:>XJ.3 01 mA lLDU1~) Ul )DlMAI}~OD 'Ddc:>X UlD mXl'(l}m3~ ""~1l0~ "
-AS1l3 lD"'0~'(300dil "'~ 09lt~OD DA ,,"OA)31 m~911113 Dl ')OlDri~dX I}dOmDOdll 'Ul U1U'(V
-1}13riD 3 W ")OlDri~dX )(I)3D~llt) )lU UOlt~ ~D 30 ') ~10D (I]O~ri 'lD~ )~!.(I]!.DdXlll ) lt1lLDlt~~D
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S,!)lllDldotd3l! liooouqd3lt ,,1.111 :IlDropnlJ.:;:
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av
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( In) UOOOD);3
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a.-! 01U'(g~13rlV
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25
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crx~~a
15.8
A~tT<\PA~To
Ano TO
crx~~a
15.8
AS
i
i
i
AS~Y i
TauT6T~Ta
1:< loopponia, AD AS i
E~{a",a~
(7.11)
E~ia",a~
(7.4a)
C=C+bYDi
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(7.20)
TA
i
i
A~ET(\PA~TE<;
AD
YD
C
YD= (l-f)Y
TA
+TR + INT
= IY i
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SG
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;
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(7.12)
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(7.60)
= x[Y{ ,Ji J.
1M
Sp
M( R.1 }mY t
YD
i -
SG = IYi-G-TR-INT
i= I + CA?
E!;ia",cr~
(7.90)
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(7.2y)
E!;ioroo~
(7.7)
TavroVfra A1I:O'WIIlE:V(Jf;WV
E7U:vovl1ewv.
'-----v---->
ti
:rrivaKo 15.4.
NX = X ; -1M ? aUel
CA;= NX?+ NFl
(7.8)
(BAtnETE <01
'nlvoKo 15.4)
Sp ; +SG
E!;iaroa~
~.u;rap A.rl'ttc;
E!;i oroo~
(7.10)
J.
BP
Lru8EPO
L \croPPo1t!a, BP
1t'ItOKlOl)
mo Pft[lO 6.3
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26
t.~~omovo~l~
NO~I(J~{m~
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A1[OIA(J~(ln~
AV(l1l01eA(J~(ln~
AV(l1lolA(J~(ln~
A1l01eAe(J~(lnK~
laoTi ia
To TTPOllyoulJEVa Mo oEvciplO IJE IJETO~AIlT~ 100TIIJIo EK TTPWTIl<; o4JtwC; 6tv OUlJqlWVOUV IJE ~uo OU
IJTTEpaOIJOTO Tile; IIE, BtTOVTO<; EV OIJ<PI~OAW TIlV O ~ IOTTlaTio TOU uTT06EfYlJaToe; Mundell - Fleming.
ria Tl"lv IIE OEV TretTOI 91J0 O~IOTTlOTjO<; KoBon, we; oxtail arbitrage, IOXUEI TT(ivro: T 0 oloo(j>oAI~ouv
eo
I flO 1!EPIOOO'tpo avaAunK~ rrapoucr1UOlt, O"I.)VlOTUTOI 'to d.uoollco ap8po ''' Expectations and Ex
Change Rate Dynamics", by Rudiger Dornbusch, Jo urnal qf Political Economy, Vo!' 84, No.6,
December 1976, pp. 11 6 1 - 1176.
A.A. A V1~OUMinOC;
27
i,+RP+LP
Xpovoc;
S[NV/]
laOHl-lia
12
II
__
w ____ : ___________________ _
______ _
H aVaAU01'l Yla TTEKTOTIKr) liI'lIJOOlOVOIJIKr'} rrOAITIKr) ival rrop61J0Ia. AMa I'l liUvaIJIKt) OUIJTTPlqlOpd
TWV VOOYEVWV IJETO~AIlTWV EivOl apKETcl ouv9TOTEPIl . no m :p,ooOTEpe; AETTTOlJtpEIe;, OUVIOTC1TOI
TO TTpoavoc.pEpStv KAaoolKo ap8po TaU Rudiger Dornbusch.
rEVIKOTE:pa, TTC1VTWe;, 11 c.pOlVOIJEVIKr) 15lac.pwvia TOU UTTO(jEiw aToe; Mundell - Fleming 11 Til IIE oc.pEf
ATal V TTOAAofe; OTO OTi TO UTTOOElYlJa EivOI O101IKO. napo uOIo~E I TI']V OIKovolJio OE (juo O1IYIJEe;: rrplv
Til lilorapaXr) KOI Drav txouv TEAmiJOEI 6M: e; 01 aAuolliwTEe; aVTllipaoEIe; TTOU aUTt) rrp0KaAEI. SMTTT
aXTIKo Kal TI']V EVOTIlTO 10.5 "ErrE:KTaOEle; - OIKOVOIJIKr) nOAI TIKr) KOI OIKOVOIJIKOe; KUKAoe;".
(JT~V
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WV~
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IJETtXEI or. tva a~IOTTIOTO OUOTl'1I10 oT08EPWV IOOTI1J1WV, OTTOU TO TTlTOKIO aTToqlooil;nal aTTo Tllv
EKT.
ETTEI(jr), OIJWe;, IJEyaAo I-ltpoe; TOU qmopiou Tile; Eival IJE XWpEe; EKTO':; Tilt; Eupwl;wVI'lt;, OTIt; 0
vaAuoEIe; So TTpt TTEI va AOI-I/3avovTOI UTT' OljJlV 01 (jIOKUl1aVOEIe; TaU EUpW. 01 TEAEUTaiEe; ea ETTIlPEO
~OUV Tie; E~aywyte; KOI Tie; Eloaywvtt; Tile; xwpae;.
OUOI0011KO, I"] EMa(jo EIVOI fJio IJIKpr) Xwpa Yla TO ETTITOKIO KOI TIlV 100TIl-lla Tile; OTTOrae; (jEV
aTToc.paof~EI Il f(jlo . KOI TO Mo ErVOI E~WYVEie; I1EmI3AI'lTte;.
Tt''''pt<; Starapaxt<;:
au~~,,~
au~~a~
TWV aOlpaAl
mpwv KlVOUVOU Kat pEU01"OTTl"ra<;, U1[Ott!lll<JTl TOU vo~.i(J~.aTOC;, Kat aU~ll(JTJ TTJC; avallEVo
~v~S lOoTl~ia<;
(NV/).
fla 1lpaYJ.lattKU yqovota "Ta o1[ota ea 1l1l0pOUOav va 1tpOKaAOouv amtc; 'Ctc; aA)..a~
yES, PAt1IT T~V v6'~Ta 14.5 " ]aoi;6yto Xp~~aTO otKov o ~tKcilv l:uvaUaycilv - EmSpa
28
AIi~'1(nl
K etpdtActlO 15
H avtlAu<J11 rrapoucrt(x1;nat mo (lx,;~a 15.9. XitplV T~S OtKovo~fas TOU Kl~V OU, ~na1;o
VIm tUut Oxpova O11tEpl1t'n\)al<; O'tu8pwv Kat ~ta~AT1to)V laOtl)ltwv.
L aUT6 ~oll8a to on m ~,;~am 6.1 - 6.3 TDU aJ..yop(8~ou ivat m iOla Kat (Ins OUO
1tplmrool<;.
APXLK'; l(lOppo1Tia: mo
BHMA
(lll~io
E.
BHMA 6.3.
<J11~io
E.
LTD E , BP < O.
TWfJrplI(o., to (lll~io E [Vat KaTOl a1Io TTjV Ka~nUAll BP ' ~O.
AOYlKCt, 11 Ulj~l1crTj IOU 1HtOK10U cupro KUt0'1T1O' tl~ 0 8 cupro tm;vouO'l<;
1tl
Ta
6.4.
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BP=O
IS
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29
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KQI PEUOT6TlJra~ .
Dapo).1ota EiVat '1 aVaAUa'1 ).1la~ aus~aEOX; TOU aaqJaAlmpou KLVOUVOU, RP, ~ 'ou aaqJa
)~impou pEUaTOT'1Ta<;, LP.
LtO p~).1a 6.1 , '1 aUS'1a'1 trov aaqJaAlmprov npoKaAEl npo<; ta navw ).1EtatOma'1 ''1<;
Ka).1nUA'1<; BP=O. H ).1ElWa~ tou<;, aE ).1HaToma'1npo<; ta KatW.
H UnOAOt7t'1 aVaAUa'1 EiVat onw<; "P0'1you).lEvro<;.
YTtOTiIlIJO'l.
APXtK~ lCloppo"la ato a'1).1Eio
<J"Tl tou vo,.da~O:to~.
catm
Otl
to No Value
E tou
ax~).1tlTO<; I S.I
U1l0ltJ.lUtOl,
+ RP + LP.
H vf.a toopponia eO. eivat <:ITO crrll.lEio E " .
rX~).10
15.10. M~-Ava).1'v6).1'v~
LM '
i,+RP+LP I---------~:_----~~--- BP =O
IS'
y
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nopaywy~
DapaT'1peimE
on '1 aVaAU"~ Kat '1 VEa taoppo,,[a Eivat "apO).1ot<; ).1E aUtE<; T'1 <; EnEKta
30
APXIK~
'EmOl On ~ ava~vo~v~ taon~ia ~,apaUnaL cr8 E,S,+I [Ny/E] > S, [NY/], orrap cr~
~aiv81 on 0\ ayopE, ava~ouv urro,i~~"'l 'au vo~icr~a,os '~s Utopia.
nEpirrTWO"'l11'1. To v6~lO:lla '[l1S xwpac; U1(Otlllcltal, Kat '1 VEa lOOtlllla rivEtal lO'lIl IllV
aVClIlEVof.lV1l ME to erXWplO 1tltOKIO va ivaI iao 11 to rnttOKlO IOU eupw cruv tn u
crCPclAIOtpa KlVOUVOU Kelt peuotorrrrac;, 11 VEa lO"opponia Sa eivat GtO O'lIllO E" tOU crx~
~alOS 15.10.
v6 ~la~a ,~, xwpa, OV urron~(i1<ll. M8 ,0 8YXWptO 8m,oKto va auSa
no(wmo tTlC; aVUIlEVOIlEvrV; Ul[QTlIl~cre(JJC;, 11 vim tcropporrla Sa lVUl atO
"'l~io E, lOU ax~~alOS 15.11.
nEpinTwIHl
2". To
VEtat Kala to
l:x~~a
En1l6~10
it:
S
S I - +RP + LP f------~o_---___:;,L_---~ BP + -E'-'---!"'-
i,.+RP+LP i----r---;-----.:~-------
BP=O
,S,+I
I}
IS
mJYKPtcr~
TOlV
am~ixTUlV
8E,~Y8i
lOV
lt8\paa~6
~~v
rrpoarrae~aouv va altOTptljlOUV ~ia urroTI~~"'l lOU vo~ia~alOS T~<; xwpaS OTaV O~~IOUp
neotlv rrpoaooK[8S urron~~a80lS. Xwp[s urroTi~~,,~, TO 8YXWPIO 8mTOKIO auSavnal KaL ~
rrapayOlY~ ~8l(iJv8Tal. M8 urroTi~~,,~, ~ rrapaywy~ auE,aV8Tal.
H urroTi~~"'l, o~wS,
",Vat xwp[S apv~nKES "\JVE"';1ES. Mia ltpo<j>av~S TTola ou
VE1tEta lvat '1 EvtCl<rrt tWV 1tA.'19WPlO"tlKWV ntf;aEOOV t6ao uno Illv 7tA.eupa t'1t; npocrq)Qpac;.
Myw T~S urrOTl~~"8UlS lOU vo~i,,~aTos, 6ao Kat arro ,~v rrMoupa ,~S e;~T~"8WS, Myw T~S
oty
aUS~~lEV~S rrapaywy~s
A.A. A VT~OUA"T<X;
31
.'
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"The international monetary system is the glue thaI binds national economies to
gether. lIS role is 10 lend order and stability (0 foreign exchange markets, 10 en
courage the elimination ofbalance-ofpaymenrs problems, and to provide access to
inrernatiotUl/ credits in (he even! of disruptive shocks. Nations find it difJicult to ef
ficiently exploit lhe gains /rom trade and foreign {ending in the absence oj an ade
quately junctioning infernational mone{GlY mechanism . ...
Any account of the development of the international monetary system is also
necessarily an account of the development ojin/ernotional capital markets."
(Barry Eichengreen, Globalizing Capital- A History of the International
Monetary System, Princeton University Press, 1996. p. 3)
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vO'1Tpooap~oYtle; 100T11J10e; OTO TT-".aiolo TOU Mrl Yla XpOVIO. MaAAov OWOTO , 11 aVETTapKtle; OUTf]
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TWV 100TIIJIWV ~E. OVOTilJllOIl TOU IJOPKOU tVOVTI TWV uTTo-".oiTTWV VO ~lcr~CITW V.
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on 0 TOTE 1510IKIlTrl<; TIl<; Bundesbank, J. Schlesinger, EiXE ~1l-".wo1 off the record OE. OUVtVTEU~Il,
11 OTToio 90 DIl~00IEu6Tav TIlV ETToiJEvll Il~tpa, OTI DEV ~TTOpouoov va arroKAloTOUV TTEpalTEpW
UTTOTliJr)OEIe;.
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1500 1500EIe;: OTTO 10% OE 12% KOI OTr] OUVEXEIO OE 15%. Al5uvaTwvrae;, oj.Jw<;, va ora~OTr\o1 Tllv
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~f]vEe; OpyoTEpa. KOI UTTOTliJtl81lKav TTaAI onc; opxte; TaU 1993, lJo(f IJE TIlv Ip-".oviSIKr} Aipa.
ME Tllv mTiaOIl ouvr\8wC; OTa UTTEP-KtpiS'1 TOU George Soras, auv,,9we; TTapoyvwpi( ETOI TO YEyovoe;
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KIVIl9EI.
rUYKEKpllJVa, OJ Marcus Miller KOI Alan Sutherland Eixov TTpo~At~E.1 Tllv TTl9avoTIlTC UTTOTljJr)
OEW<; Tile; OTEpMvoe; aTT6 TO 1990, TOUACIXIOTOV 1% Xpovo TTPIV oUjJ~Ei. H TTpOi3AElVtl TOUe; ~OOI~O
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TIlTO TWV TTpoT6vTWV Tile; xwpoe; EIXE Xr:IPOTEPEUOEI Myw TOU U4JIlAOU TTAIl8wpl01J0U Kal Tile; U4JIlAtle;
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KOTOTTTpl(OTOV OTO I51Eupuv6iJEVO tMEI~iJO TOU lao~uvrou TPEXOUOWV ouvaMavwv, TO oTToio TO
1988 EiXE cp8aOEI OTO 3,5% TaU AEn.
([HI 1tEp1CJo6tEpEe; A1ITO)lEpE~Ee;, pAi:m:tE "The EMS Crisis in Retrospect". by Barry E ichen
~ BllierE to Kt:c.paAaIO "Monetary and Exchange Rate Targets, and After: A Stochastic <Hard
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1990 ano
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21
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24
Target Zones .
AVa<poplKa ~8 TO Mundell - Fleming, oTav TO 8UpOS T~S t;<ilV~S ",val ~lKPO , ~ ava1.ucrTl 8a
Y1V8Tat ~8 cna88p's mOTlIl18S 'Orav dvat 1l8Y6.1.o, 118 ll8TaP1.~T'S IcrouIl18C;.
n 8palTEpOl, TO crUcn~lla target zone anoT8Al Va a7rDT81.WllaUKo 6mlla yla va a
vOAu8d 1t(()~, uno Ota88p~ toon~{~, 11 VO)llcr)lattK~ 1tOAtttK~ rrp1tl va OtU1StUl O"tllV
olaT~p~cr~ TOU crucntl~aTOC;.
BacrlKo crucrTauKo T~C; aVaAucr80lC; arroT8Al ~ olarrlcrTOlcrTl aU ~ napEIlPacrTl cn~v
ayopa cruvaUaYllaToc; Yla U7l8pacrmcr~ TOU crucn~~aTOS 7lPE7l81 va YlV8Tat ~8 ll8TaP01.ES
'tou yxwp{ou eTntOKloU. To. cruvoAAaYIlOttKU orro8)lato elVal 1[OAU )llKpa a O"XOTJ )l to
ouv~uK6 1ly880C; TOU Icrot;uYlou xp~~aTOOlKovoIlIKWV cruvaUaywv. E7licr~C;, 0 81<~p8Cl
crlloC; TWV 7lPO(JOOKIWV 08V ivat 7lavTa 8'1'IKT OS. Ma1.lcrTa, 07l0lC; aVE081~8 ~ crut;tlt~cr~
crT~v U7l0-8VOT~Ta "M~ A~l67ltcrTO ~ucrT~lla ~Ta88pwv Icron~lwv", ~ K8VTPlK~ Tpa7l8t;a
Sa avaYKat;8Tat va 7lap8~palv8l OTaV 01 rrpocrooK18C; ",Vat rrpoc; T~V aVTi8",~ T~C; 81<18u~~
t~~ KUtE'6euVO"l1 - KitH to onolo oumcOAO E1ttruyxaVEtat. E1tt1tAtov, Ot rrpocrooKle<; !dvouv
va dVa! aUTo-8mp8pawull8V8S.
~uYKKPll.lva, K6.8 qmpa rrou 11 lootl)lia ea tiVEl va \)1[Otll..11181 1teplocron:po ano
TO aVWTaTO OPIO T~C; t;wv~C;, ~ K8VTPI~ Tparr8t;a 8a rrpErr8l va au~aV8l TO EYXWPW 81<lTO
KlO. Me aut6v tOY tp6no, So. npooAKUOEl 1IEVOUtLKa KEc.paAata, CF t, au~6:vovra<; tTl
t;~T~cr~ Yla TO 8YXWPIO vOlllcr~a Kal oo~ywVTac; T~V Icrou~ la 8VTOC; TOlV oPlwv ~C; t;wv~C;.
To avrLOtpoq>o K6.9 'Papa. nOD 11 lootlilia 80 ttlVEl va QVO'tl)l118tl 1I:EPlOcrOtEPO uno to
KaTWTaTO OPIO T~C; t;wv~C;,
880lpdcr" T~V rr8plrrTOlcrTl 07l0U TO rupos T~C; t;wv~C; dVa! ~ya1.o. 'ExovTac; ll'Ya1.o
8UpOC; olClKU~avcr80lC;, crrravlOlC; ~ IcrO'(lllia 8a 'I'S6.v8l ma apIa T~C; t;wv~c;. Lrravlwc; 8a
xp8lat;8Tat va 7lap8Ilpalv81 crT~V ayopa cruvaUaYllaTOC; Kat ~ K8VTplKtl Tparr8t;a, ~8Ta
paUOVTac; Ta 8mTOKla T~C;.
'Eva rrpwTO 6'1'81.oC; 8a ",Vat ~ au~~~v~ a~10711mla. Lrravl8<; 7lap8~pacr8lC; crTlllaiv8l
Kat AlyOlEPOUC; rr8lpacrllouc; Yla 8YKUTaAnv~ TOU crumtlllaToc;. Apa Kat IlIKpOT8p~ m8a
VOT~TCl va crullPd.
Em7lUov, ~ K8VTPIKtl Tp6.7l8t;a 8a EX8l Kimoto rr8p18wpl0 1l8TClP01.tlC; TOU 8YXWp(OU
1lttOKiou,
Yia IllV avtq.lElffint<J11 owtapaxffiv KClt, YEV1KOtEpa, <rtCl 1I:Aaima 1'1<; (lVtl
KUKAIKtlC; 1I01.tnK~C;. M8 ~8Ya1.o 8UpOC; T~C; t;wv~C;, ~ ~EYlaT~ OuvaT!l U7l0Tl~~crTl ~ 07l01a
ivaI cru~paTtl 118 ~v a~to711mla TOU crucrT~~aTOC; 8lVCll crX8TlKa ~ya1.~. ~X8UKa 1l8ya1.~
ival KCll ~ 8711Tp7l6).lV~ IliWcrTl TOU EYXWP10U 7lITOKlOU cr8 rr8punOlcr~ 8711ppaouvcr8wC;
T~C; OIKovolllac;.
'Ocro 6~wC; ~81WV8Tal TO 8tipOS T~C; t;wvI1C;, ~ K8VTPIK~ Tparr8t;a 8a xp8lat;8Tat va rra
p8~paiv81 cruxvo1pa m~v ayopa cruvaUawaTOC;. Errl7lUov, 8a x8l IlIKp&r8pO rr8p18<i>
PIO I1TClPOAtlC; TOU 8YXOlp(OU 81<lTOKlou. OumamlKa, ~ vOlllcr~auK~ 7l0AmK~ 8a 7lPEn8\
va 8mlat;8TClI 7l8PlO'(J0T8PO m~ OlaTtlP~crTl TOU crum~llaTOC; target zone.
LTO OPIO, 07l0U TO 8UpOS T~C; t;wv~c; Y1V8TCll Il~08VIKO KCll ~ lcrOTl~la ma88pa, ~ ola
ItlP~cr~ TOU crumit~aToc; IcrOTllllWV 8a a7l0T8Ai T~V rrp":n~ Kal arrOKA8lml~ 7lp01pCllO
T~Ta 1~C; K8VTPIK~C; TparrEt;~c;. H vO~lcrllaTlKtl rro1.tnKtl 08V 8a ~7l0pd va xp~mIl07l01~8d
yla T~V 7l1T8U~~ KClV8VOC; aUou moxou.
n8patlEpW, TO crUm~~a target zone a1l011.1 Va mAO on~a Yla va 0IX8i rrOlC; 01
XPllJ..latOOlKOVOJ..llKOi aVClA.UttC; \..l1tOPOUV va cruvayouv a~t61tl(:Ha (J1JJl1tEp6.aJ.luta )'10 J.lll
7lapaT~pOU~8Va Kat ~~ ll8Tp~m~a WYE8~, 07l0lC; 01 7lPOcrOOKl8C; T~C; ayopac;, a7lo rrapUT~
pou~8Va ~yES~. Mla cruyKKPl~V~ rr8pl71TOlcrTl ava1.U8Tat mo v8no 16.4.
'Ev8no 16.4. E nO:
noAAte;: q:lOptc;,
TIC; rrpocrl5oKie:C;
target zone.
'EOTW OTI
avwroro 1<01 TO
OVTO
TrW A
IOTIIOTia
TO NoValue Hl<; Utopia EXtl target zone IJE TO EUptiJ. To KarwTtpw aX~lJa I5e:iXVEI TO
Korwraro aplc Hl<; ~WVl1e;, SU Kal s", !-IE !,JTTAt oph::;6VTIe; VPOIJIJEC;, Kal TrlV I5laxpovlK~
AYYE1.oC; A.
AVT~ouAiiTOC;
25
KU~EO\lnaEtC
no TI1 XPOVIKI'l OlIYIJI'l I , O(iXVEI HTia'l() TIlV 100TIIJl0 S" Ko9w() KOI TIlV ~ tYIO'lll UTTOTi\JIlOll KOI Til
IJtYIO'lIl OVaTIl-lllOfl aTllv TTEpfmwall TTOU TO aUOT/wa ivOI a~IOTTlOTO, ~fl A ao~, 01 ayopt<; TTPOOOO
KOUV OTI fl laOTll-lia ~EV 9a ~ETTpaaEI TO aPia Tfl<; ~wvrK
MtylOTI1 YnoTiIJIlOIl KOI AVDTil-lllOIl at A~IOTTlaTO LUOTI1\JO Target Zone
NV/
IOOTllJia
SV[NV/
l l -- - - - - - - - -}; -
MYlaT~
. s[!
YTTOTi~~a~
- S-
,
- S,
.. . ! }
Xp6voc;
KOTO TToaov TO ouaTIlI-l0 (iVai o~16TT1aTo I-JTTopEi va auvox8EI OTTO TTOpaTIlPOUIJEVO l-l e:yt91l I-lE E<p0p
I-l oy ~ Hl<; auv9r)KIl() looouvO lJio <; TTlTOKiwv.
To EV AOYW \J e:yt8 'l EivOi TO mlTOKla TaU NoValue KOI TaU EUpW, iNV KOI '(', 'llaOTllJla SI [NV/f].
Ko9w<; KOI TO OPIO Tfl<; ~wVIl<; , SU KGI
M RP+LP = 0, TO mJOTlll-lo d vol o~16TT1OTO OTav '1 lllo<popo TWV mTOKiwv TaU NoValue KOI
TaU EUPW Eival IJIKPOTPIl OTTO HI J.ItYIOTfl uTTOTil-lllOIl K01 I-lEya)..UTEPIl OTT6 Til I-ltYIOTIl QVOTilJllall TTOU
Eivol aUI-l,BoTE<; I-lE TO opla TIl<; .~wVIl<;
s'.
S, [NVIE ]
< 'NV., - '
, S
S, [NV I E]
' NV ,/ - I ,I
' NV,l- I
,I J:::.
S, lNV/ ]
AUT~ Til oxtail , OE auvouoal-l6 I-lE TIlV UTTOT8e:foo TTPOIlYOUI-lEVIl aVlaoTIlTO, 0lljJo fvEl on ,s/ .j >
Om:p ClTOTTOV.
AVTlOTOlxw(), E6v foxu
sU.
'NV,,-/
., <
S, [NV / ]
01 ayopt<; eo aVEI-lEvOV on TO NoValue 80 ovonjJIl8Ef TTEpl OOOTEPO aTTo on EivOi oUjJl3aTo IJE TO KO
TwraTO apia TIl<; ~WVIle; .
BEl3aiwe;, UTTOPXOUV KOI TO ompOAIOTpa KIVOUVOU KOI PEUOTOTIlTOe; TO OTTOrO TTEPITTAEKOUV TO
OXETIKO OU)JrrEpaOjJOTO . ~TIlV rrp6~Il , OjJwe;, oe: I.lll O~I(.'lTT10TO aUOT~lJmo target zone 11 (510<pOpd TWV
ETTITOKlwv ElvaI Toao IJEyaAIl TTOU (5v )JTTOPEi va OTTol509ci OlO cv AOYW OO<pOAIO'lPO.
rllV rrpOKTlK~ o~fo TWV ovwrEpw avollEIKVUEI TO KOTWTtpW OX~I-lO , TO OTToio TTapOUOIa~E l TO TPljJIlVI
ala ETTITO/(la Tile; lllmpam:~IK~e; oyopae; T1")e; 1T0Aiae; /(01 Tile; r Ep\..lovioe;, OC 1"))JPI'lOIO OUXV6T1")TO, arro
TIe; opxte; TaU 1990 EW() TO TUOe; TOU 1995. To ETTnoKlo OtV EIVOI Ot ET~ola ,Baofl. no va TO I.lETOTpt
\.VErt Ot ET~0I0 ~aOTj rroMorrAaOlaamt Enl TEOOCpO.
26
.6.larparrE~IKr'Je;
Ayop6e; -ITaAia,
rEp~avia
lrOAia
5
4
3
:~
r(_p_~___avra
____- r_______ _r -_ __
111/90
111/91
1/1192
1/1193
1/1194
1/11'95
HjJEpa
nr'lYl1lu:OOIJvwV:
Oalastream.
naparrlP~oaTE 6TI aTO I.IEOa rErrTElJ!3pfou 1992, ,\iyo rrplv TIlV t~o(5o Tile; OTEpAivaS arr6 TOV MIl
cmv IllooTllJia TIlS ITO)..IK~S Alphas ~TOV KOVTO OTO avwTOTo OPIO TIlS ~wVIlS,
f) lSIO<pOPO TOU ha
NKOl! OTTO TO avrioTolXO rqJtJOVlKO CTTITOKIO ~TOV m:pi"rrou 3%.
s'.
t.OVI(JIl6~ a
wv.
Y rro OPlcrfltvS mlVS~KS, Tj rrOAIttK~ crtaSpwv tcrOtlfllWV STjfltoupyi crtp~Aa KivTjtpa
crtaD<; KUlOiKOU" tls nlXlp~a\, Kat tls Tparr~, flia, XWpaS. LUflrrtWfla aUTWV twv Kl
V~TPOJV arrotAi 0 urrp~oAIKOS SaVlcrflOs crt l;tvo vOfllcrfla, mlvtrraa to UIjITjAOtpO KO
<J10~ El;u1IT\Pt~(JWC; tOW OUVE1(J)v UK6~ll Kat OUVtWV OlKOVO~lKWV rrapayovt(J)v 6rav EA
81 Tj wpa tTj, aA~ 8aa, - tTj, avarroq>uKH\S UrrOtlfl~crW"
0(J)PEiOtE to uKOAOueO ocvaplO, to orroio, rrapqJ.1t17rr6vt(J)C;, ~6vo eE(J)PlltlK6 5v
dvat. XapaKH\plcrnKo rrap6.SIYfla arrOtAOuV 0\ xwp, tTj, N.A. Aaia, lIplV allo T'lV
KpicrTj tOu 1997.
'EcrtOJ on crta lIAaima t 'l, OlKOVOfllK~, rrOAITIK~" Ol Arxt, tTj, Utopia aKOAou80uv
rrOAIttK~ crtaBpa, 1(J0nflia, tvavn tOU lJpw. H 1I0AIttK~ tTj, crm8pa, taOtlflia" oflOJ"
/iv dvat al;lomcrtTj: Ol ayopt, rrpocr/ioKouv UrrOtlflTjGlj tOU NoValue Kata 1I0crO<>to O.
E,S'+I [NV/)-S, [NV/ ) 0
S,[NV/e ]
>
:EuvrrEiu tWV npocr50Kl<OV tTlC; ayopac;, to f:1tlt6KlO tOU NoValue f:lVUl laO ~
iNlI.1 ~ if,1
+ b + RP+ LP >
ie.1
+ RP+LP
Ol 0IKOVO~tKO{ napa.yovtEC; tTlC; Utopia ~nopo uv va oavEl<J1ouv NoValues J1E rnttOKlO iNV,1
~ lJpW flo En\tOKIO i,:, + RP+LP.
ilaponto iNv., ElVOl u'VTlA.OtEPO tOU i.1 + RP+LP KUtU <5, Ol 5avEl~O~V0\ ea f:1lPE1lE
va EivOl a5lacpopOl ~E'ta~u to\) 5uVlo~oU Of: No Values Kat upW. 'Orrw<; crvaAUtm CHllv
q>ap floy~ 16. 1, to QvaflVO~vo t'l crt1Yfl~ / KO<>TO, taU 8avlcrflou dvat to iOIO.
27
o 16.1.
AOVEIO
OE
::Evo No
10 0
./ S,: NVIO/
./ RP = LP = 0, aTT"ouOH:UTIK~ uTTo80I1
ME (!,OPl-loYrl Tile; OU\!e~I(J1C; looi5uvolJ iaC; TWV ETTITOKiwv
l+iNy., :: ( 1+0,04)*'1 / 10::::)
iNV.t =
i5avEi~ETOI
Tr]
aTIYIJ~ I
A,: I.OOO ,
eo rrpETTEI va TTAI1PWOEI TrjV ur6IJEvll TTEpio~o
A I' !
Ta AI = 1.000 OVTIOTOIXOUV OE
~
B, : A, S,: I.OOO'NVIO/
H uOlpEia OovriOT'lK TO
TWV NV 10.000. eo
lOOOUVQjJO
NVIO.OOO.
TTPETW
l5 va rrArlPwotl Til
OTlVJ.J~ f+ 1 TO 100
iSUvQfJO TWV
B"
Eav ., 1000TIl-lio Til OTIVIJ~ / + I rrpoKUlI'EI fOil IJE Tr\V avo\JvOIJEVIl, i5rV.. a i5 ~ , St_/
rQlpEia 9a TTpOTEI va TTA'lptiJOEI
E',S,./
NY I lIE, '1 E
2:uva~Klllool5uvalJroe;
01 44 (: 14 4%).
'
,
E6:v, OIJWC;, 01 APXEC; Tile; Utopia KOTOr,pE.pOUV va I5lon1P~oouv Tllv 1000TIIJl0 oT09Epa , I5FlAol5~ ,
NV IO/ = SI> 'l TOIPEfo
TTPETTEI va TTA'lPWOl
ea
BI+- I = ( l +if:()A SI
TWV
S / I =
KOI TO at NoValues KOOTOe; OOVEIO\-lOU eo EivOi ioo \..IE TO EmTOKIO TOU EUpW.
0,04 (: 4%).
J- AS, [NV/
AS,(NVlEj
B,., - B,
:o:I le,1
S/ [NV/ ]
Edv TO EUPW aVOTlIJFleEJ, I5FlAaI5~, S/./ [NV/] > 51[NV/E}, TO KOO"TOe; oaVtlo\..lOU OE EUpW T'le; EWIPEloC;
XPOVlK~ OTlYIJ~ t
Edv DE TO EUpW TTPOKU4IEIIOXUpOTEPO TOU OVOIJEVOIJEVOU, S,./ [NV/E} > E,5/"} rNV/ j , TO KOOTOC; Oo ~
VEIO\..lOU OE EUpW eo TTPOKU\I.IEI U\P'lAOTEPO TaU aVOIJEVOIJE.VOU. KOI OvnOTPOr,pWC;.
IlDyTj rUlv "poDAD~a.rmv arrOrEAe' D (npoamplvll) Emruxia rmv Apxwv TIl<; Utopia va/ita
rDPTjaEl rDv laon~ia ma9EpTj. kE aurTj Hlv rrEpinrmall, ro npay~anKo Koaro<; ocrvEla~ou
08 eupoo rrpOKurru:t tTl OtlYIlTl t+ I lao IJ..E ie, + RP+LP, I.UKPOu:pO tOU aV0J..lVolltvou Kat,
AYYEAor; A.
Avr~ouAO"oc;
28
29
AU<f'T'lPOl
EUVaAAaYJUXTLKOi
npLOplaJ,J.oi
M<TQPA~nj
'-_ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ -'l:TQ6'pa
Iao'TlJ,J.la
l<fo'Tl~ia
Ill) Kat IlE O'ta9Epa lO'onllia, 11 vOlltcrllattKtl :n:oAlnKit J.l1IOpe:i va ElVCll a1tOtEAEcrllanKit, va
E1t11PEaaEl to 'YXWptO EItttOKtO Kat tllV nopayooytl_ H a1totEAa~attKOt11t6. '!1lC;. 01100<;, 1tE
pLOpil;ETat ano 1~V EA!:U9EP'l Kiv'lCl~ E7tEY8UnKWV KE<paAaiwv, 61[wS avaAUe~KE Cl1'lV EYO
16.2. rIEpatT tpW, EnOX!:UEt Kat TO rIpopA'l~a N-J (PAt7tETE Tllv EY01'lTU 13.6
"1:umtiflam loon~lwv - 1:uVTOfl'lIClmpltdj Ava8poflt'j").
T~Ta
np6ypa~fla OlKOVO~ltdjS
Eq>tX'tOU<; crroxouC;, E7tllPE6.~Et 9Ettl(0. ttC; rrpOO'OOKlEC; tWV VOlK01<UptWV, tooV E1ttXEtpilaEwv
Kat TWV ayopwv, auf;itvoVTas Eml TIS m9avOT'l1ES E1Il1Uxias mu. rIonw 8E fltiUov, omv
urrOPXEt El.lptia KOtVWVlKit cruvalvEcrl), l) o:n:Ola au~uVE l tllV m9avO'!l1ta E1tt'!UXOU<; E<pap
~oytis
wu 7tPoypti~flQ10S
rEtOta rrpoypo.~~ata. 1l0AAOV crrro.vtCl crtllV rrpocr<patll OtKOVOlltKtl Latopia. ExOUV tll
8uvafllKt'j va EK7tAt'jf;ouv flE 1~V Elllwxia muse No. txouv KaAU1Epa TOU avaflEvofli:vou
1[OTEAtClflaTa.
0.
30
01 ~ciaEI~ TOU eaUJ..lOTO~ ETE91l0aV aro i5EUTEPO !-ItaQ TrlS OEKQETfac; TOU 1980. Xdpf'l Of: auro, " Ip
Aavoio , lJia xwpa TIl<; anolae; 01 vtOI OV9PWTTOI I-IHOVaOU:uav ava~'lTliJVTa<; KoAlm:PIl TUX'l, I-IETE
H l,JTTElpia TIl<; lp'\ov15lo<;, Ol-lw<;, ElVa! Ev15lo'llEpouoa KOI Via Evav OKOIJ'l Aoyo : H E<papIJocr8Ef
aa auaTOATIK~ i5rllJOOlOVOI-IIKrl TToAITIKrl (iXE TO oVTf8no TO U aVOIJEVOIJEVOU OTTOTEAOI-lOTO : AVTi Via
TTl!3pai5uvOll " OK61-11l KOI U<PEOTI. 00r1YIlOE or. ETTITOXUVCff) TrlS avaTTTO~EW<; .
IE aUTO TO tveno eo OTTo)Ju8oTTOlll8Ei TO <dpAOVl)IKO 00UlJo , 8ouIJora E~ aMou i5Ev vfvovral
XP~01IJO
OUIJTTEpcrOlJara
nA~9w
plo~6<;
'ETO<;
1980
1981
[%]
18,3
-.-. -
AVEpyia
[%]
7,3
--20,4
1982
-- - 1983
..
-1984
-
1985
- ..-
-1986 -_._.
1987
-1988
.
1989
1990
9.9
-11 ,4
13,5
17, 1
-10,5
.
8,6
~ J5,0
16,8
5,5
3,8
-_. 17.1
3, 1
__ ~6, 9
2, 1
.. 16,3
4,1
._ 15.1
3,3
12,9
--
MEa", Opo,
1991 - 2000
2000
TPEXoucrWV
LUVOAAOYWV
npOOTTO
E8vIKO
AOYIOI.JO~
[% AEn]
[%AEn]
-10,5
-12, 1_
-1 2, 7
-13, 1
Xpto<;
[% AEn]
71,3
-~
-9,2
-5,8
-_-5,3
-- -3 ,7
-3, I
-0,2
-----0,0
~
- I O ,9
-9, 1
. -1 0,4
_._- _.
~,2_
75,9
8 1,6
92,7
96,8
99,7
110,8
-0,8
-2,8
112L
108,5
99, 1
92,6
---
- -- - ~
-4,3
_ _-_I.]
01J 0 <;"
[.000.000]
3,40
3,44
..
3,47
.. . 3,50
3,53
---_. -
~2
nA~eU
--_
r -j,54
3,54
3,54
3,52
3,52
3,5 1
2,9
11,3
1,6
-0,4
61,1
5,3
5,0
_1 ,4
3,8
35,7
3,8
nl']YEe;: DECO Economic Outlook (i5lcl<pOPE<;" EKl)6oEI<;") KOI Intemational Financial Statistics.
DTTWC; TEKIJI']PIWVETOI oTT6 TO DiOIXEfo TOU avWTtpW TTivOKO, oro TTPWTO 1J106 Tile; l)EKa E Tlo~ TaU 1980
IllpAOVi5IK~ OIKovolJlo EIJ<POVI~E TToMt~ OVIOOPpOTTIE~: ulJ.!I']A6 TTAIl8wp10IJO , l)1lIJ~<PIO TTOOOOTO OVEP
yioe;, Ulpl']AO tMElIJIJo DiO 100~UY10 Tp.Xouowv OUVOAAOVWV, OI4'~q;IO tMEI)JIJO TOU TTPOUTTOAOVI
OIJOU , U4'IlAO KOI raxuTorcr oU~OV6)JEVO E8vIK6 xptoC;.
H KaraOTOOT] ~TOV TOOO clcrxlllJIl, 01 TTpool)OKfEC; T600 OTTOIOlOl)O~E~ KOI 01 EUKOlpfE~ Via TOU~
vtoue; TOOO AfV(e;, TTOU UTT~PXE tvTOvO IJETOVOOTEUTIKO prUIJO. Av OI.pOlptOEI KOVEi<; TI'] q;UOIKr'] OU~Il
all , a TTAI']8uo)J6c:;: Tile:;: Xwpo<; oUOIaonKcl )JEIWvOrav K08' 6AIl Til OIO:PKfJO TI']e; i5EKoETiac; TOU 1980, KOI
6X1lJ6vo ylo TIlv TPIETio 1988 -1990 lTOU <poivnol OTOV TTivOKO.
To ol1IJlo KaI.lTT~e:;: rimv 11 EKAOYr) vEae; KUj)tpVr)Owe; TO 1987. naPOTI i5EV EIX TTAEloIVIl<pia OTIl 80u
Ar) , teoE we; OTOXO TIlv ~uVloVOll TWV i51']l.loafwv OIKOVOIJIKWV: TI'] I-.u:fwo'l TOU E9vIKOU xptoue:;: KO!
TOU EMEfIJ)JoToe; TOU npoUTToAOY10IJOU. To QUOTI']pO TTp6YPOIJIJO, TO OTTOrO TTPOt~AETT IJElWOll TWV
i51']lJoafwv OclTTOVWV, EIX TIlv UTTOOT~PI~Il TaU aTTA8oVTOe:;: ono TI']V E~ouoia KOIJIJOTOe:;:, E~aO(pOAi~o
VTOe; t TOI EUPEIO KOIVWVIKr) OUVOiVEOll
fV.AWOTE, 11 KOTaOTOO'1 Tile; OIKOVOlJioc; ~TOV TETOIO TTOU i5v qlolv6rav vcr UTTOPXOUV TToMte; (
VOMOKTlKt~ TTIAOyt~. 'Evo aMo ora9EpOTTOIl']TIKO TTPOYPOIJIJO , TO 1982, i5EV EIX ETTlTUXio: H nopo
i5IKr) IJEiwOll TaU illEiIJIJOTOe; TOU TTPOUTTOAOYIOIJOU, OE: 9,1% TOU AEn TO 1984 OTTO 13,1% TO 1982,
EiXE IJEY<iA.O KOOTOC;: U<pEO'1 KOI clV0(50 Tile:;: oVEPyiae;. H oVEpyia tcp9oO" OTO 17, 1% TO 1987, OTTO
i\ yyeAoc; A.
Avt~ooAinoc;
3J
11,4% TO 1982. ETTjOI'\~ , TO TTPOYPO]J]JO ~ool~6TOV OE OU~llal'\ T'l~ cpopoA oyio~ 1'\ OTTOrO 0'l\.lloupYEi
KOI avn-KiVl1TpO ylO Epyooio KOI 15rJl..1I0upYIK~ TTpocmdBEIO .
To OToBEPOTTOI'lTlKO TTPOyPO\.l\.lO TaU 1987 EIXE avtATTlOTI'\ ETTlTUxla. UXI ]Jovo \.lElwBf)Kav TO
EBvlKO xpto~ KOI TO EMEIIJI..lO TaU TTPOUTTOAoYIO IJOU TOXUTEPO OTTO 6TI OVOIJEVOTOV, oMo. , TTITTAtov, a
puB\.l6~ au~riaEw~ TOU TTpaY\.lOTlKOU AEn EKnVaXBIlK OTO 4,7% TO 1987, OTTO -0,4% TO TTPOrjYOUIJE
va ETOe;, KOI tcpBoaE TO 7,8% TO 1990.
AVTiBETO OTTO TllY TUTTlK~ OIKOVO]JIK~ avdAuoll, ~TOV lJio ETTEKTOTIK~ OUaTaAnK~ TToAlTlKri (ex
pansionary fiscal contraction) .
KOI 11 ETTITUXio EIXE 15lopKEla. >OiVETOI OTTO ne; OUO TEAE;UTOfEe; YPOIJIJE~ TaU OVWTtpW rriVOKO KOI
TOvi~ETQI orro TO YEyovoe; Oll '11pAov15ia EfXE J,lEXPI TO ).lEOO T'1e; 15EKoETiae; TaU 2000 orro TOUe; u\.jJ'1)..Q
TEPOU~ puBlJoue; OIKOVOIJIK~~ ovorrnj~Ew~ Olf)V Eupw- ~(i)V'l .
TToM t~ aTpE~AwOEI~
'Popau,.
./ BtATrWOll Tr'l<; oVTaywvIOTIKOTIlTO<; TWV TTpoToVTWV Tile; xwpo'e; Myw TIl<; rrpol')YI')BEiolle; TO 1986
U TTOTIIJ~OEWe; TIl<; IpAavoIK~C; Aipa<; (T) KOJ,JTTUAIlIS IJETQTOrri~ETOI rrpo<; TO OE~IO) .
./ MElwOIl TaU OVOIJOOTIKOIJ EITITOKfou laoppoTTio~ (11 KOIJTTUAIl BP::O IJTOTOTTi~ETOI rrpoS' TO KOTW)
A6vw 0) T'1S' UTTOTI]JriOEwe; - ]JEIWB'1KE 0 opoe; (EtSl ;1 - 5/ ) I 5/, KOI \3) TIl<; !JmiloEw<; TOU oocpoAi
OTPOU KIVl5UVOU -RP J.- OTTOTtAEO)JO TIl<; O~loTTloTia<; TaU npoypalJ)JaTOC;.
./ BEArfwOIl Tile; TTpooj3aOEwe; OE (50VEI0!JO TWV VOIKOKUPIWV KOI EITIXElpriOEWV (11 KOIJTTuAIl IS IJE
TOTOTTf ~ETOI rrpoc; TO 15E~lci ) mo TOTEaTTEAEu8EPWVO\.lEVO XP'1]JOT001KOVO!..llKO OUOTr)IJO .
./ nEpalTtpw ~EATiwOIl TWV TTPOOOOKIWV TWV VOIKOKUPIWV, TWV ETTIXElpriOEWV Kal TWV oyopwv Ao
yw Tile; apXIK~e; EIT1TUXioe; TaU rrpoypaJ.JIJOTOe;.
KarrolOI ano TOUe; ovwTEpw rropayoVTEe;, IJE TTPOE~dpxoUOEe; TI<; TTP00l50KiE<; TWV VOIKOKUPIWV, TWV
ETTlXEIPtlOEWV KOI TWV avopwv, EVEPVOTTOltl81lKOV OTTO TO 11510 TO rrpOvp0J.JJ.Ja.
KaTTOIOI 0.,).),,01 rrapaYOVTEe; ~rav rrpol'ov Tile; EUVO\'Ktle; oUYKupia~ . H UTTOTilJll0'l TaU 1986 tYIVE
aTO rrAalOio TaU MH EVW '1 oTTEAEuBtpwOIl TaU XPr'l!JOTOOIKOVO!JIKOO OUOT~!JOTO~ ~TOV OTO TTAofOiO
TIlS' TOTE l5lolJoPCPouJ,JEVIl<; TTaYKOal..liwc; niaEwc; VIO aTTEAEU6tpwaT) T'1e; olKovol..liac; KOI Twvavopwv.
ME TT)V EK TWV uOTtpwv VVWO'1 , Mmov, (5Ev xpE,a~Era, '1 KoracpUVr; 010 UTTEP-CPUOIKO YIO Tt'lV E~r;YIl0'1 Tt'}e; ETTITUXi0S' TOU oT06EPOTTOI'lTIKOU TTPOYPO).lIJOTO<; Tile; IpAavl5ia<;. Avn6tTwc;, Tovi ~:TQl 0 poAoC;
TWV TTPOOQOKIWV K01 '1 a~ia Tile; O~IOTT'OTfO~, KoBw<; KOI '1 8ETIKr; aMIlAErril5poori TOUe;. Tovi~ETol, E
TTiOlle;, on 01 1500KoAE<; OTTocpaOEIS' . 01 EvtXOUOE~ IJEvaAo QUVIlTIKO rroAITIKO KOOTOC; , iow<; EV rtAEI va
EivOI 01 EUKOMTEpEe; KOI va OTTOcptpo uv TToAITIKO ocpEAo~.
nC; OOK'lOf), rrpO~A'l\.laTioTEil[ rrOIOI OTTO TOUe; TTpoavacpEpBEVTE<; TTapo.YOVTE~ l5EV AEITOUPYOOv
OTIl
!Joe;.
xwpa
cnJ;nC'l E'to
ap8po
sionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries". by Francesco Giavazzi and Marco Pagano,
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 5, 1990. pp. 75 - III.
:A YYSAor; A. AVT~OUA(hor;
32
16.1 EIIArorH ............... ............... .. .......... ................. ... .............. ............... ................................. I
LX~lJa 16.2. MEiw0'l TaU 6lE8vouc; ETiiTOKiou IJE IuvaMaYIJOTIKOUC; n EprOpIO\.lOUC; .. .... 6
16.3 MErMH )(nPA - IENAPIA OIKONOMIKHI nOAITIKHI .......... .. .................. ................... ... 10
I.X~lJa
16.3,
EnEKTaTlKIi NOIJ10J..lOTlKr;
IX~lJa 16.4. ETrEl'::TaTlK~
11
......... 13
........ 13
. . .... .....
nOAITIKrl
.. ........ 14
........ 14
.................... 15
Adjustable Peg .. .
IX~lJa 16.5. Adjustable Peg - AUVOIJIK~ TWV ETTITOKIWV KOI TWV laoTllJlwv..
Crawling Peg...
Target Zones , ..
'Ev6ETO 16.4. E~ET6<OVTOI:; Trlv ~loTTIaTio EV6<; rUOT~\JOToc; Target Zone..
......... 15
... ...... 16
........ 17
. 19
.. ......... 22
.. .... 23
............ 24
........ 25
.. .... 25
.6.avEIO\JOe; OE =EVO NO\J1oIJo - To LTpEj3Aa Kiv'lTPO TWV LT08EPWV IOOTlI.IIWV . ... ...... 27
E<pap~oy~
16.1 .
... .................
.. ............ .....
.. .... 28
.. ..... 29
. ..... 29
.. ..... 30
.. ... 31
33
'. ~
'''-
Kf:tp~NxtO
17
17
VOII(t~
QVE~ap!Trta
17,1 ElaaywYrl
H 6lpa <~, uA~SUI, <!pSa,, ! To lIapav K!pUAatO "UVSi:1:l n, ava),';"l, Kat ta (J1)~lI
pa.o~ata OA(J)V tWV npOllYOu~tvwv, ~E ot6XO va KaAlHVt oll~avnKCt. KEVCt. tOU 'puzzle'
tll~ OtKovo~ia~ KUl tWV ayopwv Kal, tOtoutotp61t(J)~, va ~AttcOO El tllv tKavOtllta tWV a
vaYVOJ"t61v va m~6.Al.ouv K6.lIOla t6.~~ "to X6.o, tOJV xp~~atOOlKovo~IK61v 1;Al~OJv.
Tl:AIKO 6q>eAo~ ea e(vat 01 KaAUttptC; ano<paotlc;, Kal, ,Ua1tcrta, Ot tva OIKOVO,U1KO lU:p16
~aAAOV "'0 onolo i)v un6.PXouv anaAUtE, alIavnie1l, a 8IA~~~ata OlKOVO~tK~, MAttI
K1l~ Kat EmX,lpll ~attKcOV Kat 1[EVOUtIKWV a1[ocpa.owv.
To Ke!p6.AatO SeKtv6. ~ t~V nap6.Sea~ tOJV SetlK61v Kat apv~nK61v tOJV i)leSv61v e
1tEVOUtlKWV KtcpaAaiwv, ttKJ.l.llplcOvovrac; tllv Kttllllall Ott to \OO~UY10 XPTJllat001KOVO~.Il
KroV auva1Aa.y6:w ElVaI to 1<JXUPOtEPO KUVaAl J.l. EOCO tOu O1roiou TJ Otev~c; OlKOVOllta Kat 0\
818vei<; xp~~atayop<, 1t~peal;ouv t~V yx61pta OIKOVo~i(l Kal xp~~atuyop'" Ti1toTe
at~v OlKOVO~IKl'j I;OJ~ liev eiVUl XOJpi, KoatO,_ Kat 8~ ta 8leSv~ ellVliunK6. Ke<p6.Ama. A
VaOtlKVUovta~ Ot tOU~ KlVOUVOU~ tOU~ 01[O{OU~ EVtXOUV, ~1tOpOUV va KUVOUV Illa ttntUXf\
Iltv~ OlKOVOIlIKl'j 1l0AlTlKl'j va lI,ael Su~a t~, emwx(a, t~,.
Ell] (J1)VtXlU, ~ (J1)1;~t~a~ Yla tOU, (J1)vanay~atlKOU, lleplOpla~o,;, ava8l1CV,;el,
avCt.~taa a clAAa 8llatU, 6n tttOtol1tpl0Pta~oi, napon Il1[OPOUV U1[O npoij1t0 8taE L~ va
tt8aatuouv 'YlU Kanoto XPOVIKO OlCt.atlllla to. ol8vit 1tEVOUttKCt. Kt<p6.Aaw, oev U1[OttAOUV
naVaKtla: .6.llllIOUPYouv ~)'Ct.AO KoatO~ atOU~ OlKOVO~tKo\)~ nap6.YOvtEC;. E1[I1[AtOV, y\a
va. 1[apa~eivouv a1l0ttAta~atlKOi 1tprnel1tpOOOEUtIKCt va YlVOvtat auOtllP6tEP0l, ~E OJ~o
t'Aa~a <0 aUSavo!lVo KaatO, TOU, KWtOla anw~ va ~enep6.aet TO anoLO 0'1'),6, TOU,.
AKa~~ XlpoTepa, to Koeno, TOJV 1lep lOpla ~61v eivUl liuaavaAoya ~y6.AO yw tOU, aaSe
rl.yysAO( A. A",ouAciTO(
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Kavtva crU'H~~a to altaia etvat to evoeOety~tvo Yla ~ia aUYKKplfl~ xwpa ae OAeS ttc;
nep 1000Ue;.
Auto Of: to crU)l1U~paa!la avrovoKAu 860 paOtKC; OtUmcrtWOEl<; YlO tllV 01KOVO).llK~
!;lo ~ : TIpWtOv, oev ultapxauv uKaAee; AUaete;. H ULOSEt~O"~ OlIo(Quo~note O"UO"t~flatos oev
apKei ym va EntAUSaUv ltpO~A~flata Kat avtaappanieS 1I0U auaampua""at exi ~aKpov.
lJ6ao Oe flaHov otav nonu an6 au,a ta lIpa~A~~a,a ltpaKaAaUvtal ana amaSfl~tOUe;
napaya,,"ee; wus onoiaus 0'" flnoPei va eAtyl;et ~ va elt~peaaa flia xwpa.
L'>eU'epav, rneto~ 01 OlKOVOfllKOi napuYOvtee; oev avtlOpouV fl~xav lKa aUa ltpoaap
flol;ovtat mle; fl"apaUOf1evec; cruvS~Ke;, ~ u106tTI\a~ KanOlOU O"UYKeKplfltvau cru01~flCI
tOe; taanfllmv an EAeUSepWVel OUVUf1le; Ot OlIaiEe; eiVat ouO"KaAo va ltpa~Ae<pSouv el; op
x~e; De; alIOttAeafla, to teAlKO anOttAeafla etvat flaUov alIpO~AElttO, Kat 0Xl ltavta
crufl~a,o f1 ns ltpaO"ooKiEe;.
XapaK,~p(QnK6., m~ OeKaet(a tOU 1980 ~ aUfl~ouA~ lIpas n s avamuO"O"O~evee; XW
pEe; ~tav va <JUv8tcrOl}V to VOj.HO)lU l OUe; m: KanO\O lOxup6. llpOKE1)ltvOU va avrq.l.Etomi
aow toy 'Ote uljI~A6 lIA~6mplO"flo . ~t~ beKaetia tOU 1990, OlIOU '1 opa~lanKit ai>l;~cr~
tmV o"Svwv ",evounKmv <paAaemv aUal;e tOue; Kavov<; 'au lIalYVlolOu, ~ cru~~auA~
~tCIV ~anav aUYKeXU~~: 3eK1vwvtas alIo ne; ltoUt s vafl",~anKts KpiaetS t~S OeKCIe
tias, aUal eta~yau,,"a t~V ulOStt~a~ cruot~~a,oe; ~eta~A~tWV 100an~tWv evw ciUal ,~v
Ulo8ttllO'll crucrt~JlatOC; crta8Eprov 10'Otll.llcllV.
6.ucrKOmovtm; t o tpyo nov
OUYKpttlKCt
JJ XPOVW
aniflatOS, fle KP"~PlO ,~ ouv~nK~ O"ufl~aA~ tOU crt~v exi'ruI;~ tmV atoxmv ,~<; OIKova
fllKitS ltaAmKite;: lKaVOltOl~nKO puS~o OlKOVOfllK~e; avamul;eme;, UIjI~A~ altaaXOA~a~,
ata6epoTI\ta nflmv, el;aAelljl~ tmv flaKpoOlKovofllKmv aVlaOpp01IlwV, KOl, ev ttAe~ t~V
afla rnnuxoue; OlKoVofllKite; noAlHKite;. Mio rnnux~e; 1(OAlHKit auxva O~~lOUpyg( tvav ep
YOO IKO KUKAO taXeiae; avanti>l;elOe;, alma061;lOv npoO"ooKlWV Kat elO"pOWV <paAailOv. TIa
pevtpY"',e; autou tau KUKAau eiVat 01 aVlO"opponiee; 01 anaiEe; oo~yau" ae Kpia~: U1j1~AOe;
nA~SmplO"~6e; ano t~V nAeupci t~e; i;~,~aelOe;, unep-oav1O"~Oe; -~tpae; wu anoiou eiVat ae
I;tva vO~lafla- Kat unep-enevoualS, Olupuvo~eva enifl~ata tau laai;uyiou tpexouawv
cruvaUaywv, ... Xlpa'epeUo,,"ae; m npaYflata, OtaV I;Wltaael ~ Kpi"'l, 0 epyOOlKOe; KU
KAoS ultatpOma!;l ae <pauAo
H avlDttplO mnaypa<peiaa ltOAlHK~, ~ onoia lIEqnet SUfla t~e; e1Iltuxiae; "1e;, altate
Aet flia aK6fl~ tvoetl;~ on atov ouvafllK6 Koa~o O"tav alIaia i;01)~l oev ulIapxouv eU KaAeS
a1Ian~O"ete;: H OtOlpapa ~iae; E1IltUXOUS lIoAmKits alIo flia ltOAmK~ ~ alIoia KataA~yl ae
KpiO"~ eiVatnaAu Aexni. MaAlO1a, rn~pea~"al alto napayonES 01 altaiOl oev eAErxaVtal
alIa ne; ApxtS flias xwpas, 6Jtme; Ol cruvS~Ke; crne; OleSVete; xp~flatayopte; Ol OltoiEe; cruxva
KUflaiva""at fletal;U aKpaTI\e; ru<popiae; Kat f1eyaA~<; alIatmaool;iae;. ~uvrnme;, OAol Ol 01
KovofllKai napayonee; ltpEnel va teAauv O"e cru"eX~ eyp~yapa~
To <paAaLO KAivet ~ ~io crUnafl~ crUYKp,a~ tmv Kupimv cruat~fla'mv cruvoUay
XPllJ.10tOOlKOVOJllKroV
aele; nonte; <popte; anOllOla!;ouv altO tOY O~flO"'O olaAoyo. Onme; 1I0AAEe; <popte; anouala
sEt Kat to UUlOVOl1tO : Kavtva cruO"
tJlllU bEY I.11tOPEL va U1tOKatacrt~cr El Ilia OAOKAllPw~tvll
OlKOVO~tKit 1tOAtnK'li Kat tOU~ lO"XUpOU~ eEcr~O\)~ Ot 07t0(m a7tattOUVtal yta tllV <pap~oyiI
tTv;. lotaltEpa cnov a11jlEpIvO KOcrjlO, OItOU 011tpOaOoK1E'; 1tai~ouv OTljluvtlK6 p6AO, YeO 01
Loxupoi 8EO~oi OU~PaAAOUV o''l o,a8Ep6''l,a ,OUS
KO Kat OPV11tLKci.
EvrEivovra.; t OY npopA'ljlonajlo Yl' aUta, 0\ yYtKc;Ucn:u; Eivm napaKIVOUVEUJltv<;.
Katu n600v to 9ttKO unEptEpouV HOV OPV11ttKWV ono n o; 10LOitEpEe; OUV9ftKE<; KoB xw
pas Kat Ka9E OlKOVO~IKOU napaYOVta SEXWPlata, <a9ws Kat ana tU; YCVIKOtEPES auv8~
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na t'l ~Eiwa'l tWV oUV'lnKWV lIapcvEpYEHnV tOus anamitat auVExits EYp~yopa'l Kat
jltyOA11 nELeapx[o on6 6AOU'; tou.; OlKOVOjlIKOU<; napuyoVtE<;, Kat OU'toue; Ol on0101 ooc.p
AOUV'tat ajlEaO ono ta EV AOYW KEc.paAOla Kat an6 t OU'; unoAoinou.;. Xp11GljlOnoleOVto<;
Hlv OVaAOY[o 'tou Stiglitz o'to EtOOYWYIKO KEijlEVO t ou Kc.pOAO(OU, OAOl Ol OlKOVOjltKOi
napaYOVtES ~[as xwpas lv!n at'lv iota paPKa. Ano 6noLa nAEUpa Kat yw onOloo"nOtE
A6yo va KaVEt VEPU, eo KlVOUVEUOOUV 6AOl Ol Em~atE<;: Kat 't11'; A' @toEw9> Kat tllr;
r' 0E:OE(9).
tt" o~WS, EiVat nOAti EU~EtaPA~tES. En'lPEai;oVtOl OE ano nAtions oaES napa~tpous
1lOUtS EK tWV ono[wv oX' ~ovo oV En~pai;oVtat ano tlS ApXtS ~ias xwpas, aUa, Ent
nAtov, EivOl ouaKOAo va npOpAELp80tiv.
6cv Eivat AOl1l0V K080AOU nEpiEpyo OtlnAEiatES oaES EIlJlElP'KES ~ElliES OCV tEK~'l
pu.i1VOOV ECr.V 'ta 9E'nKU nov OlE8veOv E7tYOUTlKWV KEtpOAatWV onprEpouv 'tWV apVTFlKWV.
Til VEVIK6TEP'l olJ<JI19ulJia 0XETIKO IJE TO i5IEev~ ETTEv(5UTlKO KEtpoAolO EKtppa~EJ TO KaTW9] orr6arra
01-.10. Of. Ef,E(JeEp" oTT60001l, aTT6 ap9po2 TaU tYKPlTOU Economist:
no
I
jlia rcoA:U ICO Atl KUl ruavayvroorll crVvo'!''l '[toV aXT1KWY jlM:tWV, PJ.. br&u: '[0 Kf:<pUAOlO "The
Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No free Lunch", t'l ~ Kristin J. Forbes, m:'A... 17 1
199 (}tov OUA.A.oYIKO '[o jlo Capital Comrols and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies.
Pract ices and Consequences, roy o1toia EIDJ.lAtl9'lKE 0 Sebastian Edwards Kat Ei;bwm: 0 OiKO<;
2 "A Place for Capital Controls" ) The Econo mist, 1~ Maiou 2003.
TT[PIOPIO~OlJ(;
vaAAaYI-IOTIKOf TTEPIOPIO)Jof Sa rrpoatl3oAov TI<; .uolo8rtOiE<; IJO<; TO fOlD OTTW<; KOI 01 6001J0i, <pEP' El
TTEfv, OTI<; IJTTOvavE<;. To 1500 8t~aTO EXOUV TToAAa KOlva, oAAa 6EV EivOl TO [610. Doo Kat va EivOl 60
OTTETTTO, 01 oTT060f Tr]<; EAE08EPIl<; olKovojJio<; TTptTTEl va TTopaiSEx800v OTl KcmolOl ouvoAAoYlJaTlKOf
TTEPIOPIOlJoi, UTTO 0PIOIJEVE<; ouv8~KES , EivOI 6IKOlOAoYIlIJEVO!.
rlOTi TO EjJTT6pI0 OE KECPOAOIO EivOi OIO<POPUlKO OTTO TO EjJTTOPIO OE oya60 KOt UTTrJPEOiES;
600 Kupfws "6youS. npWTOV, 01 i5IE8vi<; XPIlI..IOTOYOPES EivOI ETTlPPETTEi<; OE MBIl, EVW 01 618vEi<;
ayOPES aya8wv OX!. lH:OTPOV, 11 nl..lwpia ylO XPlll..laTOOIKOVOl..IlKO AaBIl IJTTopd vo Eivol 6POKOVTElO,
KOI TEivEI va ETTlTTiTTTEI KOI Of: o8wouS, 0XI IJOVO OE 60VEI~OIJEVOUS KO! TTlOTWTE<;. 01 TEAEUTOfES OEKOE
Ti.<;. Kat liSlOiTEPO 11 iSEKonia TOU 1990, aVE6EI~OV aUT~v Tllv TTpaWOTlK6T'1TO IJE TPOIJOKTIK~ OQ(p~
VEla . MEyaAo KOIJOTO KEcpaAafwv EIOtppEUOOV OTrJV AVOTOAIK~ Aoio KOI OT'l AonVIK~ AIJEpIKr'j Kat
~acpVlKO aV(OTpaq:>'100V. Ev IJIO WKTi, 01 jJEXPI TOTE ETT1TUXIlI..IEV.S OIKOVOl..liE<; ~u8ioTIlKOV OE ~a8la
O<pEOIl )}
no
T'1v a~io TIlS OVWTEPW E~OlJoA.OY~OEWS av06EIKVOEI TO YEyov6<; OTl 0 Economist (ivOi yvwOT6S Ylo
T'lV OX(OOV oOYIJOTlKrl TTioTil TOU OTIS OPEriS Tl'lS (M06EP'1S, xwpiS KpanKO TTopq..ll3anOIJO , OIKOVO
lJia<; .
ItT] crusirCT\011 Kal(!)'"cEpW n:aputteEVtaL tU SE1lKo. Kat UPVTJ1"lKo.. rta va 10VtOn:t 6n OEV
unopxouv ano)..U1f:C; anavtliauc; ata aX1:tKn EPWU'U..I.OtO, KnSE SEnKO
it
opVllnKO OKO
Aou8hat ano TOV axE1tKO aVTiAoyo, i\oym o T~, nOAunAOKOT~Hl(; T~, OlKOVO~lKli, sm
~e;, ~ nA~p~e; avaAua~ K6aTOUe; - mcpAlae; ival satpTlKa 8UaKOA~ Kal Ka~[a aXTlKli
cruS~T~"'l oov ~nopl va [yat nA~p~e;,
0TlKO.
CA<Oc>S<1.
T~V aSlOnO[~a~
LUYKeKpl~tva,
~ npoapaa~
a'
a,
napaaupS'i aE UlI'pPOAIKO
H OEliTEP~ KaTEliSuvo~
oave",~o ~
000 anA~ Km va <paiveTa! aurij ~ ),Ua~, OCV eival KaSOAOU EliKOA~. ITpolinOSTEl 0"
01 KUPepv~nKoi napUYOVTES Sa EXouv TtS yvwaEU;, Tn Kiv~Tpa Kat TIlv 'UEAu;ia va ano
<paait;ouv y,a Tn oxer'KU SEJ.laTa ans auvEXwS fleTUPano~cvcs auvS~K'S a"s o18SveiS
xp~~aTnyopEs. ITpoOnoSETe~ 'nia~s, on OCV Sa UnOKU\]fOUV OTOV nE!pao~o va W<P'A~
SOllV 01 (OlOl, l~ papo~ tOU KOlVWVIKOU aUVOAOU, Kue6n, 6nco~ UVaAUttUt OtllV nO).lvrt
EYOtlltU, 01 <ruVillUYl1atIKOi nEplOptal10t EK!pS!pOUV HI DlO.cp80pu.
AUa
OIKOVO).llKcDV nupayovtwv, aHlv npoana8eta !OU~ va. Ilu:oaouv to KOa!O ~ tWV 1[ptOpt
a).lc:Ov, to KOlVOOVIKU a01KO, Ku96tl 01 I1tyciA~ E1t1XElp~m:u; Kat Ot \)1[OPOl J.l.1l0POUv va
st1tpVOUV tOU~ 6notOU~ npIOplaI10U~ axetlKU UKOAa, Kat Ot Kata Kavova allpopA.Ellte~
napCVEpYEU;S TWV nE plOpta~wv. Mia aiae~a~ TOU J.lcytSouS TWV OTpEpAwa,wv npoKUmEt
ana T~V aVtlAUa~ aT~v CVOT~TU 17.3.
nEPIIIOTEPEl EnENIlYTtKEr EnIAOrEE. ITepLOooTCpES 1ICVOUnKS 1ItAOYEs auv'nu
YOVTm J.lCYaAUTEp~ ev~flEpia y,a TOUS EncvouTES Kal ~,yaAuTEpa KEpo~ yw ns ERlXElpij
aEtS 01 J.lCV EnCVOUTts ~lIOpOUV a ElIlTUxaUV U\]f~A6TEPES alIo86aElS y,a KUS, ElIilI'OO
KIVOUVOU, a, OE enlXElpijaelS J.lnopoUv va , neKTaSouv aE I1Ues xwpes, aSlonOlwVTUS Ta
UVTuycovlatlKa 1[AEOVEKttl).latD. tOU~.
Ev aUVTo~ia, ~[a xwpa ~lIOP E i va ~ETU'I'EPEI E"'OO~~aTn alIO TO lIapov aTO ~EnOV ij
ano TO J.lEnOV aTO napov, otaa<paAit;ovTnS tva aXEnKtl aTaSEpo o,aXPov'Ka EninEoo Ka
TaVaAWOews Ka, UA'K~S EU~J.lepias. H AOYIKij eiva! avaAOY~ aUTijs "fla tva VOlKOKUPIO
ons CVOTllTES 7.3 Km 7.4.
88wpEiaTE, ym napUOEty~a, ~ia xwpa J.lE y~ptioKaVTa nA~Suo~O, onws ~ ]anwvia. H
[anwvia oev XEt apKETi:s 1ICVOUTlKS EUKatp iES y,a va aSlOnOl~oc, oAes n s anOmJ.llEli
~ElS TllS f,' aUTO, esaUou, eXE! olapKTt n),ovuaJ.laTa TOU taot;uyiou TPcxouawv OUVaA
Aaywv: CA > 0 <=> S > J.
To. nAeOVaa).lo.to. tOU taosuy(ou tpXouooov auvaUayoov 1[EVOUOVtUl
ano
IanwvlKs~
ERlXE!pijOEl, Kat 1ICVO UTS OE lIapaywY'KS ~ovuoes, OE OJ.lOAoya Ka! J.leTOxi:s xwpwv 01
:Ayyd..Ot; A,.
Avt~OUA.aiO~
onol<; xOUV KaAUtP<; npOOntt1<E<; OV07t'[U~Ul<; 1<0t, 00<; K tOut au, u1t6axovtut mVT1AOl
pES alloMaElS A1l0 to ,aooa aun;'v TWV EllEVOUaEWV ~ xwpa 8a ~lloptaEt Va olaT~p~aEl
TO plonKO EllirrEOO TWV KawiKWV T~S OTav ~Elw8Ei TO Elaoo~~u T~S AOyw wu y~paa~t
YOU llA~8ua~ou. T6TE, ~ xwpa 8a tXEt tUEl~~a aTO E~1l0PlKO lao!;uylO TO olloio 8a Ka
AumEt ~E llAEovua~aTa aTO lao!;uylO ElaOO~~uTWV. Euv OE EXEl tU,,~~a aTO lao!;UylO
tpEXOuawv auvaUoywv, t1lttol) 80 OO1tovo. 1ttplaaon:po 0.1(0 to l<JOOTUlO: t'1<;' 80. to 1<0
AU1ttEl an01lUlAI)O"tl<; tWV 1lpIOUmaKow atOlXElUlV tll <; ato E~WtEP IKO, 0'1Ao.OI) U1tO EtapO
E<; '1tVOUtlKcllV KEq:>o.A.aLooV.
aWpEU).lEvO
E~WHPlKO
;(ptoS.
Ta OlESV~ EllEVOUnKU KE'l'aAOla O~).llOupyouv KaAuHpa Kiv~Tpa
ns TPo'llE!;ES KOl ns ApXtS, aU).lpaUOVTas aT~ o~~lOupyla ~las llE
KMYTEPA KINHTPA .
Yla n s
ElllXElp~aElS,
vo
xp~~awolKovO~lKO auaT~).la
ITpay~anKo'
toXEipla~.
ITEpaLTtpw, ).lElWVETal
OlllEPlOp"').lO~
KaSws Kal
'OAa OE
Yla OlKOVO
).ll~ aVallTU~~
~ AEyO).lEV~
(<1lElSapxia
T~S
ayopu9l. Ev
auvto~lia, 01 EnevoUtEs, Kat 0'1 Ot l;tvot, 01 onOlOt x.ouv Ko.A.UtEP'1 tqvOYVUlcria, 1lUlAOUV
x.w
EmT~pl]al]
TWV
TOV Kavouv, Ol pot<; KE'l'oAaiwv 8a ns n).lwpijoouv (PAt1CEtE aXEtlKci. T~V EV6T~Ta 14.5
" lao!;UylO Xpl]flatoOlKOvolllKWV l:uvaUaywv - E1ll0PUOE1S" Kat to tv8Eto 15.2 "l:Ta8E
pES 100nflis Kal IT,,8apxia tl]S OlKOVOlll~<; ITOALTLKijS" ) H aJIOTprnnK~ "'XU<; TOOV E
KPOOOV avabUCvUEtUl ano lllv buvat6trtta lOU<; va 1tpOKo.AEaouv cruvaAAaYj.latlK~ Kal
tpa1tESIKT1 Kpia'1 j.lE ~yCtAO KOlV())Vl1<O, OtKoVOj.ltKO KOl1tOAltlXO Koato<;.
KU~G:e\l'nQe:tC
Ksq>&:A.cuO 17
tpeXOuO"mv O"uVaA.Aaymv E11:,!ne O"tl~ aO"ae:vEO"tf:p~ KOlVWVIKE~ taSeH; )lEo"CO t11 ~ )lelmO"e
ms t mv ~l,,9wv Klll HIS anaoxoAi)Gms.
T'lv avUA.uOTh Kat tU; aXet1KE<; a11:0qlaat~ otKOVO~lta1<; 1tOA.ltlK~<;. 11:ept1t).:Ke l to on
ot nplOplG~Oi G tGPots ~1l0pOUV va KA~Cjl90uv 8nKit, evw G KpOtS apv~nKit. :Eu
YKKpl~tva, Ot nplOpw~O[ O tOPOS ~nopouv va KA~ Cjl90uv ms ~OpCjli) GUVteUS nOAt
nKi)s (prudential regu lation). E1I<nAOV, ev9ap puvouv Klll t~V aV(l1lru1;~ tmV 'Yxmpimv
xp~~aTllYopwv Ol ono[s, ~ t~ Olpit TOUS, GU~Pillouv GT~V OIKOVO~lKi) avitnTu1;~.
AnD T~V aU~ 1l4upa, Ot nplopw~oi G Kp OtS ~nop i va KA~Cjl90uv ms tvoet1;~ on Ot
ApXtS oev ivat npoo~Am~tvs G OUVeti) OtKOVO~lKi) nOAlTlKi) Kal Xp~ot~01l0l0UV TOUS
nptOplG~OUS yta va KpOiGOUV Xpovo.
1>.MErEr ::::ENEr EnENIIYrEIr. n Atov Tmv llpoava'Pp9tvTlV, ~ GU~POAi) Tmv ou:9vwv
1lVOUnKWv KCjlllAaimv OT~V OtKOVO~lKi) ava1tTu1;~ n ptAa~pavl Kat anous napityo
V1S Ava~wit teUS 1;xmpU;ouv ~ 9nKi) GU~POAi) Tmv it~wmv 1;tvmv 1tevOUGemv Kat ~
~yaAti1p~ npoGCjlOpa xp~~aToooTi)Gm s Kal te auv aUTi) xa~~MTI':po KOGTOS.
Ot U~WS 1;tvs 1tVOUOtS au~PaAAOUV llotKtAOTPOllooS G~V avanTU1;~ : Etoayouv
G ~ia xwpa TXVOyvooGla, OlOlK~nKS tKllVOT~TS Kal o19vi) O[nua olavo~i) s npOfOvTmv.
TOtOU10tp6nwe;, t11<; mtprnouv va a~t011:Ol~al a11:otA.O" )latlKOU;pa tOUe; napaywYIKmJ ~
nopou ~ Kat to. O"UYKPltlKU n).eOVeKt~)lata tll<;. Kat va K1l:atbual to av8pmrtlvo buva~l.l
KO T~S.
XPHMATOlIOTHrH ErxoPloN OIKONOMIKON nAPArONTnN. 'Ooov aCjlopa GT~V wyaAu
TEP~ llpoGCjlopa Kal TO xa~~ MT Ep o KOGTOe; xp~~ateOoTi)oEOOS, OOTlYEi OE llEplGGOTEpEe;
snVbUO'Sl~ an6 talpsise;. Au~6.vst, 1l:(<JT]~ Kat tOY bavsIO")lO TOW vOlKOKUpmv Kal KUPp
Vi)crEooV. BArnET crXEnKit n e; evoT~Te; 4 .3 KaT 4.4 .
Ynapxouv, o~ooe;, cropapa Ouv~TtK(i npopAi)~aTll. AK6~~ KalaV 0 oaVETG~Oe; OEV Ei
Vat Ull EPPOAtKoe;, Ot GUV8i)KES Gne; OlE9vEie; xp ~~aTllYop s ~nopEi va oo~yi)GOUV GE E1;ap
O"ae; Kat mpO"Le; tCOV pomv tWV e1tSVbUtlK<lW Ks<paA.a{wv KUL, )lO"W autmv, 0" sScip al~
Kal UCjlOtc; T% ola9wl~OTTjTlle; xpTj~ateOoTi)crme;. Ta oXeTlKa OtAi)~~aTll, Ta O1loia ava
OEIMovtal <ITO Ev9EtO 17.3, ivai av6.A.oya nov mOtCOtlKWV KUKA.WV (P).11:tS e:vOT11ta
II.?? ). M<iA.1O"ta, 01 tv A.6yw E~QPO"Sle; Kat U<po"Etc; )lnop Ei va ivat 01 Ult{~ tWV rtlOtWtl
KWV KUKACOV.
'Eva aXStlKO 8)la SivUl 6n Yla va aslOnO\1190uv napaycoytKU to. sEva KSqlo).ata, Kat
va a1l:oqlsux8ouv 0 \)1l:ep-oavslo~6c; Kat ot UitSP-S11:EVOUaeU;, XPSUlS0vtUl t Sxvoyvwo(a Kat
U11:0(0)l<;, 8S0)ltK~ Kat OlKOVO)llK~, nou O"UV1;SW<; bEY uno:PXouv O"n~ 1l:eptoO"OtEP S~ ava
1tTucrGO~evEe; XWpEe;. :EUYKEKpl~tva, XPElitt;OVTlll opyavOl~tva Kat KaAa AlTOUPYOUVTll
XP11)lanO'-rtlPla, mO"tE va )lSlmVOVtal to. KOOT11 ouvaAA.aywv KOl to aoc.p6.A.lOTPO PEUOtOtll
Tlle;. A1;l61l1GlOl xpTj~aTOOlKoVO~tKOi avaAuTte; ylll va po~90uv TOUe; 1;tvoue; nevoUTe;
OT~V EntAoy~ Tmv ~10XWV Kal o~oAoymv. :E1ll9EPO ~aKpOOtKOVO~lK6 nEptpaAAOV TO a
noia va ~~v an09appuVEt ne; llapaymytKte; EnevouOEtc;. KaAo 9W~lKO nEplpaUov Kat
npoO"tao[a t11<; tblOKt11a iw;, WOte va )lSlmVOV10l 01 KivoUVOl tWV ~vcov E1l:VbUTOOV ano tll
olll'P90p6. Klll n e; anaTEe;.
"Eva aAAO 00pap6 llpOpA~~a Eival on Ol pote; TooV OlE9vwv EnVOUTlKWV KECjlaAaimv
oev iVatnUVTOTE npoe; T~V KllT1i8UVG~ T~V anoia npopAt nEl ~ 9Empia. :EE nOAA'S nEpl1ttmO"tc;, avtt to. K<paAala an6 n; avsn"ruy)ltvs<; xwpe; va PODV npo<; tU; avantUaao~E
Vee;, yta va eK~1:aAA<u90uv u e; Ki unaPXOUOEe; ~'YaAuTpe; rnVOUTlKte; uKalpiec;, pt
ouv npoe; T~V aVTi9ET~ KaTEu9uv"" (pAtn1: 1ll tvSETll 14 .10 "]Got;UYlO Xp~~aToolKoVO'
~lKWV :Euvanaywv Kal]Gon~ie;", Ka t 16.1 ":EuvaUay~aTlKWV An09 E~uTmv Tll napaoo
1;a"). To np6pA~~a aUl6, lOllliTEpa tvTOVO Tll TA<UTll[a xp6vla, anOT EMi tOxupi) tvOEl1;~
~eyciA.WV aVlaoppomoov as naYK6o~\O rni1l:Eoo.
'Ev8HO 17.2. To CA < II TWV H.n.A. - Kivouvo
ApVIlTIKO.
To. bl!hni ERevbunKa KE<paAma E1(lbElKWOUV E~apcrEIS KUL U'I'tcrElS, b ~Aab ~ , ~EYaAES
Elapots Kat EKPOEs, 0\ onoLES buaXEpaivouv r~v aaK~cr~ t~s OIKOVO ~lKijS nOAlTlKils Kat
He; un:oq:>acrEle; 6AWV t WV otKOVOj..1tKWV nupuyovrwv, Kal KaStcrtOuV 6AC; tle; XWPEC;. j..1LKp Ee;
Kat ~EYaAES, WaAWtES a E KpLcrEIS. l:uXVa OE, Ol ev Myw E~ap crElS Kat U'l'tcrEIS oev aXETi
1;ovral W m SE~EA1Wb~ O IKOVO~IKa ~EYE8~ ~Las xwpas-pAtnEtE crXEnKa r~ au1;ilr~cr~
crr~v Evor~m 14.5 "Icro1;iJylO Xp~~aroolKOVO~lI(WV l:uvaUaywv - Emopal"'S", Kal o~
r~v evor~m crXEnKa ~E r~ ~ETaoocr~ mv apv~nKwv xp ~~aroo\Kovo~lKWV E~E)'iSEWV ana
r~ ~ia xwpa crr~v aM~ (contagion).
Ev auvro~ia , 01 wyaAES Ela poES o~~ loupyoiJv aVlaopponiEs Ol 01[OiES, ""v~SCDS, Ka
raAijyouv aE Esiaou ~EyaMS EKpOES Kat KpicrTl' y1[Ep-OaVEla~o , orav OlOXEtEuovral crt~V
OlKOvoj..1ia j..1toc.u tau t pUnl;lKOU OUOT~j..1aTOC;. Un:EP~En:ev5uaElC; Kat ~Oi)(JKEe;, OTUV 5 LO~
XEtEUOvrUL
~taw
TIl, ayopa,
O~OAOyWV
Kat tOU
xp ll~ancrt~p iou
KUL
r~,
ayopa, aKlvil-
T(1)V.
XSEL aE nOMES XWPEt;, HIS EU6.8os ""~nEptAa~pavo~tv~s (PAt1[ETE to tvSuo 17.3 KatW
r Epw).
Oo~yo r~, aVaAiJaEw, anO'tEMi to axil~a 17 .1. Elvat criJvSEa~ tOU axil~aro, 12.?,
to anoia rrEplyp6.(j>El T11 OUVUlll1<Tt T(1)V EVOOYEVWV mOTWTIK<i)V I(l)KA.c.uV, Kat tOU oXitllUtOC;
14.2, to onoio nEplypa'l'EI n , tnlbpacrElS Eni rou lcrol;uyiou xp~~awOlKovo ~IKWV ""va).
).aywv. 0 1VEES EmopacrEl, Ema~~aivovrat ~E olaKEKo~~tva P E)'~ .
To OTt).1tO KKtvitcrEWC; Eivat TJ E~ap oll tCDV lcrpowv OLES VWV EnvouHKWV Kq:>aAu(~
WV, 11 apx~ v0C; EPYOOlKOU KUKAOU 0 onoloe; Su unotpOmuoEl O cpauAo otav Ol pot.:;
otUj..1atitoouv Kat crtll (JUvtXEIU uvaotpuq:>OUv. H tsapoTt ~.17tOp E( va lVUl an:OttAEO).1a tCDV
auvS~KwV
~anov
tal
.,
M lKQOot IWVOj,ltC( -
KEtpci:MxtO 17
r- AEfl - Y .
la'tTlKliKomvaMv07l - c
II
JJr r I
. cvo LiwfJi:OIpo -
7 ---- AV1;:::',pa _ E YD
A{ic{imo",ra - UNC
ElftTOKIO -
Q rpAe/a ~ ~PK
.-----'
L
';lae'Ol~onl'
. a ';av\lOY
n;'ooro;- W
KamD, -
r.
Ym:ppillOHa
AnoOtpara -INVx
Kh'lltpoYUl
Altota).liwcrTl
~Valio>:l' - /r
AVIlI"vO!,E>71
AIOOtOl!,D
EIQ6ij'IPG - YD
.
npocr60KIE<;:
0'~~:
'P'
i ' OYWytc-X.
AKIV~'WV,
" o~o'Ahywv
,..
r t .
p("'~'\<.>--
Ekcr).lIKO
nJl.a.lmo
E~'OPIKWV
EXtIKO Kocrrot;
npoIo Vt"OlV TllS Xwpat;
E;r:lT(iKIO - i
r
DpaypaTlK'j l(JoTlpia - R
Ttf.1C~.
...
OvopcurrlK'l
!(JoT/pia
=:YO ~
D).'18wpt(JfJOr;
Mtox
t wv
En:roplO<; ....
flAlf8wpl(JfJor;
I
I
~ - - : ==
=--IuO(Vy IO Xp'1WJ:rO!Kc1:JV Lvvallaywl':
- CF
+ t
1 _____ _ -
npoOOoK[~
6
A.V1~O'JA.tit"O<;
I
1
:A.yyeAoc; A.
IEIOOYWY,, -IM-:>
OopaywY'i
E,aipwv Yf
r __ _
TIII{;t; MCtOXOlV,
.
I:U v6 ~ Kt;
one; Il ISyde;
p~~otaYDP'l
L - OIKOVO)ltK1l n OA.It"lK~
n i."Owp/(JI1(x; - P
Contagion
.... - .
10
A yuroppo1ticS
Kzt.pliMXlO 17
AYYZAO"- A . .A v"[~ol)A(XIo<;
10
KEtpCtAalO 1 7
xwpa u
YOO IKOU KUKAOU KanOla anw~ Sa mEASEL, XWPl<; 01 APXE<; va ~nopoilv va a1tOTpE'VOUV
T~V E1tEPXO~EV~ Kpla~.
AUT~ ~ avayvwpla~ KIlSWTn T~
xwpa
avo8o~
TWV E1tltOKlWV EVEXEl tOY Kfvouvo va GnCto"El T] (poucrKa crtT]v ayopa aKlvrltWV
Tux6v ~i(J}al1 T(i)V TlJ.l.cOv T(i)V OKIV ~t(i)V KUl t(J}V J.l.ETOXcOV eo J.l.Ei(i)VE Kat tTl 8toeEOt
~6T~TIl TWV oaveiwv, ~e TEAtKO anoTtAa~a T~V ail~~a~ TWV E1tla<paAetWV T"'V TpanE!;wv.
l:UYKeKpl~Eva, ~ e1tlppaOUva~ T~<; OlKOVO~tK~<; avanTil!;E"'<;, Myw T~<; ~ElwaE"'<; T~<; Ka
tOVOAwcrEW~ Kat twv 1
tEVOUOEWV , jltWVEt tT]V KEpboq)Qpia tWV e1ttX lpf]crEWV Kal obllye(
ae nTwXeilaec<; Kal anOAUaEt<; Epyal;o~Ev"'v. M e TOV Kivouvo TPIl1t el;l~<; Kpiaew<;, au!;n
vovral TIl aa<pMlaTpa Klvoilvou Yla T~
ausavovrll<; T~V 1(\8av6T~TIl ~al;IK~<; eKpO~<;
Ke<paAiliwv.
'OAOI Q[ KlVOUVOl lVIll an~AVOTOI Kill an~AOTpO<POOOTotivTal. 'On",<; aT~V KIlA~
<paa~ OAE<; 01 ~eTa~ OAE<; ~Tav np o<; T~ SenK~ KIlTeil8uva~, aT~V KaK~ <po.a~ ival npo<;
xwpa,
T~V apv~n~.
on
EMox'0el
0 Kivbuvo~
va Q"1'[ucrouv
0\ npoavaq>Epeeiae~
(POUcrKE<;. E1tIttAOV,
Ol
aVlaop
Anio TaU KUKAOU 0 OTTOrO~ m:plypOipETOI OTO KupiwC; KEiIJEVO ( ivOI I'] ETTI6 iw~r'J TToMaTTAWV mox wv
IJE EAOXIOTO opyava VOIJIO}JOTlK~<; TTOAmK~C;, OE ouvl)uOOj..lO IJE OVE~f:,\tYKTE<; E~E)..f~EIe; one; i5IE9vEfe;
xp~~aTavoptc;.
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by Ange los A. Antzoulatos, Journal 0/ International Money and Finance, vol. 2 1, pp. 101 3
- 1034,2002, Kat 2. "Mexico' s Balance of Payments Crisis: A Chronicle of A Dealh Foretold". by
G. Calvo and E. Mendoza. Jo urnal qf International Economics, vol. 41, pp. 235-264, 1996. Bli
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5 "Sudden Stops, Financial Factors and Economic Collapse in Latin America: Lessons from A r
genlina and Chile". by Guillenno Calvo and Em esto Talvi, NBER Working Paper # 11153 , Febru
ary 2005.
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To OE XPTjfla100IKovofl.KO ouorTjfla, flE tTjV WEAlsia KClI rTjv KClIvorOfllK~ npoo.aSEOTj nou
ro IilaKplvE~ roue; pOTj8a va ro npasoDv, oTjfllOuPywvmS ra KIlraUTjACt xpTjflCtrOOtKOvO
J.lIKU npoi:ovto.
EfvUl <pU<JtKO, Aomov, on YIO K0:.8E 7nXEtpTl J.la, to oltoio <JuvTlyopi UltEP tTl~ Enavo
qlopae; rwv cruvaAAaYflCtnKWv llepLOptcrflwv, unapXEt avremXE{pTjfla. OllWe; KClI ylCt \SE
napaoEtYfla E1ll1UxOOe; EqlaPf1oy~e; KU1l0lOU llEPlOptoflOU unapXEt nATjSWpCt napaoElYflci
rwv aVEmruxooc; Eqlapfloy~e;.
on
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H nA~9OOpa TOlV OOV~TlKOOv fLOPCPOOv TOlV llEPlOpwfLOOv avaowcVUETm a1l0 TOU, 1lI9avous
ClUVOOMfLOUS TOlV ola'l'6pmv KaT~yOPIOOV. fla llapao"wa, fL1l0PEi va onaPXI avOOmTO
OPIO EnEVOUClEmv (1l0ClOTlKOSnEplOpwfLOS), yla ~tvooe; (IClpOtS) 9WfL1KOUe; mevooTC; (1
01OOTE,) ClTO XPllfLaTlClTiIPIO (XPllfLaTOOlKOVOfL1Ka nEplOOCllaKa ClTOIXEla) T~e; Utopia.
EmblwK6~EVO
unotf).cr~u Eivat 0
aus~Cl~ TOU KOClTOUe; TOUe; ElTE fLE OlOlK11TlKa fLtTpa. AllOOTEPO, ClTOXO, fLllop d va Eivm ~
~E[(()crll tOU OYKOU tWV ElcrpOcDV Kat EKPOcOV it 11 uJ....J....uyit tll~ crUV9EOECD<; tCDV ElcrpOcOV U
Stye,
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PEi<; Kat Tp(mE!;ce; va OUVlClTOUV ClE ~tvo vO fLlClfLa, una 0\ aVT(ClTOIXce; O~fLOCllEe;, onms
Km ~ KUi3EPV~Cl~ Kat ~ KEVTPIKij TpallEl;a, OEV aVTlflETmllii;ouv TETOIOV llPlOpIClfLO.
<l>UaLKU, U1l:UpXOUV Kat 1l: EPlcrcrOtpO blUKpttlKU ~Etpa
yta
ClfLOU ClE ~tvo vOfLlClfLa. 'Eva nap6.0lYfLa EivCll ~ unoClupCl~ Tmv KUTU9tClEOlV o~fLoClimv
oPYUvtClfLwV allo TpallEi;E, 01 onOLES ouvci!;oVTm ClE stvo VOfL1ClfLa.
MOPlH TON nEPIOPlrMON. Ot lW(JotiKOi 1fP lOpUJ/Aoi . ([\It10t01:(0\ lWV 1l:000crlWcrEOOV
ClTO EfLnoplO aya9wv Kat un~pEClIWV, opi!;ouv tva UVWTUW OPIO ElIevOUClEWV U1l0 stvou,
ClTIt xwpa iI allo KUWlKOUS TItS xwpae; ClTO E~mTpIKO. fla llUpaoE1Yfla, fLllOPEi va UllapXl
avOOTaTO OP10 ClTOV oavclClfLo ClE SEvO VOfLlClfLa lOI(j)TWV, llPOKlfLtvOU va EAEyx9d 0 ClU
VUAAUy~UtlK6<; KivbUVO<;. .0.<; cruVE1l:ElU, 01 Em;vbu'tE<; bEY ~1[OpOUV Va EmtUXOuv tllV Em
9UfL~TiI OlapOpmCl~ TOU XupTO'I'UAaKlOu TOUS, OUTE 01 EnlXlpi!Cll, va aVTAiIClOUV "'1'6.
AUla fLE TO cpO~VOTEPO Yla UUTt, KOClTOS iI vu ElIev8tiClOUV ClE llUpaymYlKES fLovabE<; EKE(
nou npoClboKOUVTO fLyaAUTEpo KEpbos. 01 bE TpanE!;E, oev fLnopouv va Kavouv TItv ElIl
9UfLllTil olaXEipl"'1 evEpYT\nKOu - na9~nKou.
18
AUTtS ~nop d va ~iv Clt paatcr~tv~s aE KClVOV~S TJ va tivat aT'l oUIKpla'l KanOlWV KUPEPV'l
"tlKmV opyav wv. ~~ OAES "tlS n~pl1ITmaElS, 6~wS, O'l~IOUpyO"V ~UVOlKtS cruVSliKES Yla OlU
<pSopa.
EK <puaEWS, 01 OlOlKT\"tlKOi xeplopla~oi rOUV noUts ~op<ptS. flU napaOElWa, ~av
Kanolos 9ilil va ~SaYEl cruvaAAay~a ana T'l xmpa, va OcpdAEl va TO O'lAma~1 aT'S ap~6
OlES un'lp~ai~s TOuAaXlaTov ~ia EPOO~aOa npiv. ME aUTO TOV Tp6no, napE~n08il;Tat 'l
a~tonoi11crTI neYOu"tlKWV UKUlPlWV ato ~ootp1.K6 ~ 11 ano"tAcr~anK~ avn~tti)1IlQ"TI
Kanotas anpOpAEnT'lS aUa ~ndyouaas nA'lpw~lis. Enia'lS, 'l aOEla Esaywyt'l, auvaUay
~aTO, va OiVETClI ana tva ~IKPO ypacp Eio, am unCyEla T'l, KEVTplKTJ, Tpant~'l" aTO onoio
tpya~ETClI ym I1EPIKt, mpE, T'lV 'll1tpa tva, nOAil a XOWaTlKO, -Kal Ol, EK TOI"OU apyo,
aT'l OIK1IEpaiwa 'l TOlV alTt'laEwv-unaU'lAos.
"Eva, 7rEPIOP"'I'O' aE Til'" tXEl va KaVEl ~E T'l XPt'I"'l olaq>o p~"tlKmV cruvaUaYl1aTt
Kmv laOTt~lmV Yla El1nOplKts Kat XP'll1aTOOlKOV0I11Kt, auvaUayts. AUTe, 01 tcronl1i~s
1IpoaolOpi~oVTat OIOIK'lTtKa, o'lAaot'l au9aipEm, Kat auxvli olaq>tpouv KClTa nOA" ano T'lV
laOTll1ia T'lS ayo pa, - aUTt'lv T'lV onoianpoaolOpi~ouv 01 cruVSliKE<; npoa<popa, KCll ~'lTt'I
aEOl,. fla napaoEly~a, Eav 'l tcrOTll1ia aT'lV ayopa auvaUaYl1aTO, EiVCll NV 1O/, tvm Yla
1ltv8tlaEl, XapToq>l)wKiOI) aT'l Utopia t XEl OPlaTEi NV5/, 'l UnEpTlI1'lI1vr] laoTll1ia I1El
mVEl T'l (JuvaUawaTtKt'I an080(J'l TOlV stvwv 81ItvOUTmv, ESi(Jw(J'l (14.3), Kal En'lPEaI;El
apvTIHKtl nr; eneYouaeu; tOUr; crr11 xwpa KaL tlr; avt{crtotXer; potr; nVOUtlKWV Ke<pa)"aloov.
!.Ke<pgefte n OlKOVO~tK6 Kiv11tP O unapxe1 Y1a arbitrage ~et~u tOOv QUO tcrOtq.J.UDV.
Ot
'P6POl
TO 1974.
19
Lxol..toc XOCt
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l..ocOWV EOllQOcrI)EX1OC.
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XDDV Kat cruvaAAoyec; 1teplOucrtOKWV O"TOlXeiwv uno 1<PUtlKOUC; !poptiC;, to lcrO~UYlO XPllIlU
fl~otv,
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ayopwv Kat TOV KaAUTEpo tAEYXO T~S OIKOVOflias. at aGTOXLES T~S ayopas rrEpJ.afl~a
VOUV, XOlpiS va rrEplOpii;oVTat, TIS U1IEP~OAt<; crTT.<; OIESVEiS xp1]flaTayopts, orrOl, Ot KUKAOI
urrEp-atGlOOOSOlV rrpoao01owv, Ta crTpE~Aa Kiv1]Tpa E1IEYDUTWV Kal OaVEli;ofli:vcov, orrOlS
Ta lIEptYPU<jloflEYa crTa i:vS ETa 14.5 Kat 16.5 Kat T1]V EYOT1]Ta 17.2, Kat TOUS ESOlYEYEis rra
paYOVTES 01 orroiOl E1I1]PEa sOUV TO tcrOi;uylO xp1]flaTOOIKoVOflIKWV GUvaUaywv flias xw
pas, OreOle; 10 ~ contagion'.
a OE KaAUTEPOS EAEYXOS T1]S OIKovoflia, p01]Sa crt1]v ErriTEUS1] TOlV crtOXOlV t1]S OLKO
VOflLKTJS rrOAItlKTJ, crE i:va rrEptpaUov 6rrou to IOIOlnKO Kat to D1]flOcrlO GUflCPtPOV OEY
GUflpaoii;ouv 1IaVTa. 1\0yOl autoti, Ot IOICOTLKtS arrocpacr!s OEY EiVat rraVTa cruflBaTts flE
tllV OlKOYO)llK1lnOAttLKyt Kat to E1tlOU:.oKO)lEVO Ku),,6 IOU KOlVWV1KOU crUVOAOU. TU7tlKU au
jl1tlWIlOta 01tOtEAOUV to eK tooV J.lcyO:AWV [to-poffiv Kat tKPOWV OtAT)Jl!lClta, KnOwc; Kat 0
Kivouvo<; Yla crUV(lUaYflaTLK~ Kat Tpa1IESLKfJ KpiG1].
EtOtKOTEpa, 01 GUvaUaYflanKoi rrEplOplcrfloi GuvfJScos tXOUV GTOXO t1] flLCOG1] tOlv
ELOPOWV ~/Kat HOV EKPOWV loW 1tEVOU1tKWV KttpaAaiwv, yta trlV t1[itu~l1 crUYKtKPlJ.1tvWV
GtOXwv t~S OtKOvOfllKfJ, 1I0AltIKTJS "Evas aUOS GTOXO Eivat ~ aUayfJ T1]S cruvStcrECOS TCOV
lcrp OWVUlItp tCOV flEcro-ftaKp orrpoS tcrflCOv crvtL tCOV ppaXUlIpOSecrflCOV.
E~ELbLKEUOvtW; 1ttpULtEPW, EVDElKHKOl crt6XOl lWV 1tEPlOptOJ.1WV crn~ ElOpOt~ tivm Ol
KUtw9t.
./ H arroqlUyfJ rrpaYflanKTJS aVaTtflTJGECOS, OlIOlS crT1]V 1IEpimcoG1] tOU MEStKOti GTO tVSETO
17.2.
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COY, OlICO, crt1]v 1IEpimcocr1] toU avOlrtpco avaq> Ep Si:vToS ' eneaje ' t1]S XJ.~S H EKtifl1]cr1]
tDS DLESvOtiS DtpALoypaq>ias Eival on to 'eneaje' DEY flEiOlGE tiS IGPOtS aUa atis~crE
to 1t0000t6 t{i)V J.1 Ecro- J.1aKp01tp09to),lwv Ot orroiE~ bEV 1[l1pEa~OvtUv arro tOY rrEptOpl
crflO.
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crflan~s 1I0AltlKfJS ~ o1Ioia fllIO pEi va lIpomAtGl rrA1]ScopLOTtKtS meGlS arro T~V
nAtupa T1]S i;1]TTJcrECOS, orrco<; crTa GEYapw T1]S EYOt1]TaS 16.2 "MtKP~ Xwp a - ErrEKTa
crel~" .
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OtKOvoflia Kat TtS EYXW PLE, xp1]flaTayopts
./ H lIpoGTuoia a1I6 ESayopa EYXOlpiOlv talPlWV Kat tpalIESWv.
./ MEiCOG1] TWV GtPEPAwv KtV~rpOlv tWV maSEpwv tcrotlfltWV (EVOt1]Ta 16.5 "EtOIKa 0t
flata") .
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vat 1tOAU OUOKO).O va rreptoplcrtouv Ol eKpot~ KEtpUAUiwv, n~ o7toi~ EVl0xU0UV Ol a7to
ota8po7tOLlltlKt~ 1tpocrboKiE~ D7tOn).1tioEw~, elva1 7tpOtt).10tEPO va E1tlPciAAOVtUl1tPl
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20
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M9'1KOV O'TI1V
q>aAalwv.
AvnoToIxw <;, Via va OTTOqHJVOUV TTEPIOPIO'I.JOU<; OTI S IOPOE<; K/pOAa[wv, 01 ElOOvwVfS IJrropEi
va ITAflPWVOUV IJE KOSUO'TEPflOfl , EITEVMovro S TO XP~/..IOTO OTfl xwpo, EVW 01 ~ovwVEiS va (flTOUV
TT" fl PW IJ~ Evw piTEpO .
I:fllJmiJoOTf: on 01 ApXE<; (lEV IJTTOpOUV f:UKOAO va TEK/..Ifl PIWaOUV on 01 EV A6vw rrpOKnKE<;, 01
OTToIE<; EivOi OUVr,SE.I<; aro qm6pIO EVT6<; Trl<; Xw po<;, orrOTEA OUV TTPOOTTC:lSEla aITo<puv~S TWV TTEPIO
PIOIJ WV. n ' aUT6 KOI (lEV /..ITTOPOUV va TI<; EMV~ouv, IJE OTTOTEAEO\JO Tfl (5 la~p wo fl Tfl<; OTTOTAEOIJOTI
KOTflTOS TWV TTE PIOPI<JIJWV.
H TOXE.io ovdTrrU~fl TaU 61E9vous q.moplou ano TO TEAOS TflS 6EKOETios TaU 1950 OU~1l0E TIS
OXET1KE<; EUKOlpiE<; orrocpuv~<; TWV TTf:PIOP10IJWV , UTTEOK04JE Tflv OTTOTf:AEOIJOTIKOTflTO TOUS KOI ouvt
l30AE OTI)V OPOIl TOUS.
AvaOEIKvuovroS on 01 TTEPIOPI<JlJoi E TTIlPEO~OUV iSuoavoAova TI<; OOSEvtOTEPES KOIVWVIKES olJOiSES
Kal TI <; IJIKPOTEPE<; ETflXE IP~O E I<;, 01 TTOAUESvIKES IJTTOpOUV va TOU<; U TTEp-TT'liS~aouv TTOAU EUKOAO IJE
Tfl X P~Ofl olaKpIT~<; TIIJOA OY~OEWS (transfer pricing).
'EOTW OTI I'} TTOAUSVIKrl ABC, IJE ii5po TIS Bpu~tMES , oVTI\JETwm(EI TTEPIOPIO\JOUS ons EKPOES
K<pOAOfwv OTTO TIlV Utopia KOl alit';; IopoiS OTTO TIlV Acadia. 01 m:ploplolJof ETTI'}PEa(OUV TI'} (lUVQTO
Tf1Ta movorroTplOIJOU TWV KEPOWV oTT6 TIlV rrp wTIl xwpa KOI Til XPflIJOTO iS6TIl0f1 TI'}S SuvaTpIK~<; OTfl
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22
LXOAtLX XLXt EmaYJfJ.tXvaEt~ Mawv EUllQoal'iEXtLX,
KueqvUqelc
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MIKP~ '1 EVoXA'10'1, OIJWC;. ME TO va UTTEP-TlIJOAOYEi 10 TTpoiovro KOI TIe; UTT'1PEOiEe; TTOU TTOptXEI
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OTr) \-l'1TPIK~ OTIe; Bp u ~tAAte; we; KOOTOe; TWV TTPO"iOVTWV KOI UTT'1PEOIWV TTOU TTOptXEI OT'1 8UYOTPIK~
Q'"Hlv Utopia. LT'1V TTEpiTTTW0'1 T'1e; 8UYOTpIK~e; OTr]V Acadia '1 TTOAUESVIK~ UTTO-TIIJOAOYE[ TO TTpoToVTO
KOI UTTr]PEOitC; TTOU TTOpEXE.1. 'ETaI, r) SuymplKr) E.lJqlOVi~ETOI IJE TTAOOIJOTIKO u\.IH1AO: KtpO'1, TO oTToio
XP'1011J0TTOlti v,a T'1V XPI"]lJaTol)oTI"]Ol"] TWV EKE.i l)paOT'1pIOT~TWV Kal ETTEVt5UO(WV TI"]e;.
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T1"lv TTOAUESVIK~. ATTOTEAOUV AOYIOTIKte; Eyypacpte; OTO EVOTTOIl"]lJtVO AOYIO'TIKO TI)e; OUOTr)IJO.
n6VTWC;, ETOIpEiEe; 01 oTToiEe; l)EV txouv T'1V EUXtPEIO TWV TToAuE8vIKWV Ylo l)IOKPIT~ TlI.JOAoy'1
01"] , TToAAte; qlopte; KaTOcpEuyoUV Of:. TTEPIOOOTEPO IJElJmte; TTPOKTIKEe;, OTTWe; E1KOVIKtC; E~OYWYEe; ~ EI
oaywyte;, TTPOKEIIJEVOU va alTocpuyouv TTEPIOpIOIJOUe; OE Elopote; ~ EKpote; KECPOAOiwv.
To 1[UpaotlnLU tOU 1[POllYOUl1tvou EV9twu avUOW(vUEl tvu I1EYnAO oiouYl1u U1[O t~ XP'1
)..1a.tOOtKOVOIlIKTJ. tcrtopia: fta va EiVat anotEAEcr)..1atlKoi Ol 1tEPlOPtcr)..10i, nptnEl va lva.1
I1PO, EVO, E1JPUl, 1tAYl1o.tO , 1[EP10P10f"ilV on, OIKOVOI1'K, opaOt~plOt~tE" To on ij
tav anOH:AO'IJOllKoi Kala l1)V npc:inll oKatt ia tOU O1}(ft~lJatOe; ' Bretton Wood s' avta
Va.KAa. aUt~v tT\V npaY)..1atlKOtllta. Xpllcrt)..10nOlwvtae; to. Aoyta svoe; Kopu<j:mlou OtKOVO
110AOYou, "Controls held back the flood because they were not just one rock in a swiftly
flowing stream. They were part of the series of levees and locks with which the raging
rapids were tamed .,,7
fSVlK6tpa, Ota.v a.AACt.~OUV KCt.nOl~ napa 11ft pOl tOU OlKOVOlllKOU Ka.l KOWWVlKOU
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OEV eyyuntnl to I1AAOV, 600v "'popa. at~V n1[ OtEAEcrI1UttKOt~ta. touS.
Mfa tEtOta napa.lltpO~ Lvm ta unapxovta XPll)..1a.tOOlKOVO~tK6. npol0vta. Ol ayo
pBs EmOE1KvUouv I1EYa.A1] E1Jp~~atlKOt~ta ot~ o~l1lOupyia KUlVOt0l11KWV Xp~l1atOOlKovO
)..11K<ilV npot:ovt(tlV ta onoia pOlleouV lOUe; OtKOV0J.lIKOU<; napayovt<; va. nupaKCt.)lntOUv
tOU, 1[EP10P10I10U, K!ll va I1E1WVOUV tn ES autwv KO"t~. BA1tEt 0XEtlK6. to tv9 EtO 17.8.
vaMav~aTlKWV nEplOpIOIJWV
' Ev8ETO
E)EWPEfoTE TO OKOAou80 O'EvdpiO. Mfa BpETQvIK~ TTOAUE8V1K~ ETalp.fa StAEI va X p'1IJOT060T~OEI TI"]
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pac:;, ~..lTTopi va ~OVEIOTt:f IJE XOIJIlMTEpo ETTITOKIO OTTO on OTI"]V OMov~io: EO'1W 5% tVOVTI 6,5%. AR
VTIOTOixwe;, ~ra OAAav~IK~ TTOAUE8vIK~ , '1 oTToia 8EA(.1 va XPflIJOTa~OT~oEI HI SuyaTplK~ HI<; O'TO
H.B., IJTTopi vo ~av108Ei cp8r}VOTEpa m'1v OAAav6 io OTTO OTI O'TO H.B. : IJE 6% avri 7%.
To I~OVlKO KOI YIO TIC; ~uo TTO'\UE8vIKte; 80 ~TOV va l)avEI<J"ToUv OTfllJ'lTPIK~ TOUe; xwpo KOI va
OTEfAOUV TO xp~IJOTa one; 8uyaTplKEe; TOUe; .
'EvEKo, OIJWe;, TWV cruvoMOYIJOTlKWV TTEPIOP10IJWV, 01 oTToiol oTTayopEuoUV Tie; ~laouvoplaKEe;
KIV~OEIe; 1t5IWTIKWV KECPOAOiwv, aU TO OEV IJTTopri va yiVEI. laIVOIJEVIKO, 01 l)uo tTOlptiEC; EivOi UTTO
XPEWlJtvC; va OOVtlOTOUV IJE U4JI"]AOTEPO TTITOKIO, '1 IJEv BpETaV1K~ IJE 6, 5% OTflv OAAav~ra , 11 ~E.
OMav~IK~ IJE 7% 0'10 H.B ..
YTTdPXEI , OIJWe;, TpOTTO<; va ETTITEUXSEi TO lt5avlKo KOI ylc TIe; t5uo ETOIPEiE<;: H BPETOVIK~ TTOAUE
8V1K~ ~TTOpEf va 6aVEIOTEi IJE 5% OTO H.B KOI va OWOEI TO xp~IJOTa OT'1V OAAav~IKr) 8UYOTPIK~ . Tou
TOXPOVO , '1 OMovl>I1(~ TTO'\UE.aVrK~ ~TTOpEi va t5avEloTEf TO i~IO TTOcrO IJE 6% crr'1v OMov6ia Kal va
~WOEI TO xp~j..JaTa OT'1V BpETOvIK~ 8uyaTpIK~. KerSE TTEpioiSo, fl TTPWT'1 ETOlpEfa So E~UTT'1PETEi TO
TTPWTO t56vIO , fl t5E ~EUTEPfl TO ~EUTEpO.
ME OUTOV TOV TPOTTO, KOI 01 ~UO TTOAUE8vIKEe; j..lTTOPOUV va xpl"]lJaTO~OT~oOU V Tie; 8UyOTPI KtC;
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vaMOYIJOTIKO[ TTEPIOPIOlJoi TTopaKOIJCP81lKOV IJE VOIJIIJO TPOTTO KOI 01 t5uo TTOAUE9vIKte; IJEiwoav TO E~
OUTWV K60'TOe;.
23
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Au OTTOTE:AEa~OTlKa KOI I-IE XO~rjA6 KOcrTOe; .
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no TToAM! rrpol'ovTO, TO OIToio Eivor TUTTOITOrlllJtvo KOI OIOTTpaYIJO'TEUOVTOI OE OPYOVWlJtva xpl1~on
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TWV auvaAAaYIJOTIKwV TTEPIOPIOIJWV, IJE \-lia ~IKP~ ETTtv~uall OTrjV TEX\'oAoyia Hl<; TTAl1p0qlOPIKrl<;.
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po OTTO TOV OTTOTEM:O~OnK6 tAE.yxo TWV Apxwv
Ta avw1tpw rrapao Eiy~am, 01tWS Kat aU1a 1~S EV01~1as 4.4, avaOlKVuouv Kat tva aUo
IH;yo.AO apvTJtlKO trov 1tEplOpla).u:OV: A1toupyouv KUp(c:.oe; KarU 1'CJ.)V aaOevan:pwv KOlvW
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YVW(>ElS yla va ~t1plaUOUV to KoUtOS twv 1tEpIOPIU~WV . TIolOS Epyat;o~EvoS ~ ~IKp6s Errl
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Sd 6nws 01 E1tlX"p~UE\S 10U 1WV OUO 1tpo~you~tvwv EvSt1WV;
TIpoKimm., o~WS, tva uopap6 EpWt~~a: 0a ~rropouuE ~ia xwpa va arroAaucrEl 1a
OE'tlKU t(J)V nEptOptO'J.lWV, J.llWvovrCle; tautox.povwe; to. apVllttKcl tOUe;;
H anavtllu~ dVIll ~illov apV~tlK~. 0EWPEim:E t~v nEpimw"'1 1ttAEKnK~S Empo
A~S <ruvaUay~a1lKWV nEp\Oplu~WV, yla UUYKEKPI~tvO Kill npoKaSoplu~tvo XPOVIKO ola
atrl)..la, yla 1tltUSTJ OUYKKP1)1EvOU Kat )1tpTJO'l)10U ot6xou. AK0)111 Kal av 1tltUXOd a
,noxoe; Kal apSouv Ol1tep\Oplcr~oi, Ol ayopts Sa txouv Kataypa1jlEl t~v rrlSIlV6t~ta E1tl
flOA~S napo~oiwv rrep,opl"~WV "CO ~EnOV Ka~ onwS avaAuS~KE cr1~V EVot~m [4.4, Sa
t;~tOUV U1jIllA.OtPO au<paAlm:po KIVOUVOU.
Kat aut6 [{vat to suvOlKO OevUPIO, Ka96'tt Grav 1tlf3uAAovral K(l1tOtOl 1tptOPlO')10{
ouuKoAa aipovcat. A<p~vovcas Kata ~tpos til ypa<pEIOKpatlK~ aopavEla, 01 1teplOplu~oi
cuvoouv XU1totQu<; 01 onolOl ea t xouv to O1KOVO)1tKO KlvTJrpO va. 1tpoO'1taa~crouv, )1E 9E)1l
ta Kat aSt~l1a ~tua, 1~ olat~p~cr~ couS. "Ouotv ~ovl~6tpov tOU 1tpOUWPlVOU !
EJtt1tA..EOV, '1 avriopaOll1'WV ayopwv, 01 01toiEe; KatU Kav6va avtl)..lrW1[lsOUV apVlltt
Ka touS rreplOplu~OUS AOYW tOU Otl 1tEPlOpit;ouv tiS ErrtAoyts, O~~lOUPYOuv K6m:~ Kat
)1tWVOUV tte; arrooocrl<; tc:.ov m:voU1WV, ~mopi va tx,u a1tp6~A7tt<; O'UV1tEle;. To tvO
to 17.8 to 1tlotonOtEl..
24
LX0I,(O( XO(( e1ttay]f-l1XV(JEtS 1,000wv eo1tQoaOex,O(.
10 101'0U
To orolXEra OUTDU TOU (Vatrou TTpotPXOVTOl ano Tl"lv tYKPITr) KOI KOTa KOv6va KOAO TTAllPoCPOPI"H,lEVIl
CPIl~Epj6a Financial Times ,s
AVTIIJETWTTI~oVTa<;: TO OiArHJ~a TTI.i)!) va OTTOCPUYEI TIlv OVO lJacnIK~ avoTil..l'lO'1 TaU VOl..li0I..lOTOC:;:
KOI Tl'lv OUV aUT~ orrWAEIO OVTOVWVIOTlKOr'lTO<;: Mav umipXEI t~apa'l TWV EIOPOWV TTEVOUT1KWV KE
cpaAoiwv, '1 KEVTPIK~ rp61Te:<a TI,,; TaOMv6rv; ETTt.~aAE Hlv 18f\ .6.EKEJ..lj3pfou 2006 aucJTllPouS TTEPIO
P10IJOU<;: OTIS (Iopats Kq>aAafwv: 30% TWV VEWV (IOPOWV TTavw OTTO $20.000 6cpEIAQV va KQrOTE
8auv aTOKa C1T!1V KEVTP1K~ rpOTT.<a, yla tva Xp6vo . LTI1 TTEpiTT1WOf") avaA~'VEWc.; (VWpiTEpa, 90 txa
1/3 TaU KOTOT8EIIJEVQU TToaou . 01 TTEPIOPIOjJoi aVOKOIVW8'lKOV jJTO: TO KAiOI\..lo TOU XPIl)JO
TlOTrlPfoU Tfl<;: MTTOVYKOK .
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eo ~E iwvav Tfl ~~TflOfl Kal eo oO~avov TflV TTPOOCPOPO TWV TTpOS TTlDArlO'1 ~TOXWV . ~t TEAIKO onaTE;
AEO~O T'1V mWo'1 TaU xp '1~mIOT'1piou : 01 TTEPloplOl.loi 0XI ~6vo eo OTTOSappuvav Til; ~tVES ETTEV6u
OEIr; OE ToO.\ov15t~I KO o~16vpaq)O. OTTWr; 01 ~ETo xtr; . oAM ETTlTT.\Eov So UTTOXPEWVOV OE TTwA~ow;
KOTTOIOUr; ~tvoue; ETTEv15uTlKour; OIKOUS 01 oTToiol 15Ev tTTtv15uov Ot XWpEe; ~E ouvaMaV~OTIKoUS TTEpl
VOV TO
oplcr~o0r;.
TIS TTpoomlKts XEIPOTEPEUE KOI TO 6oXrUJo TToAITIKO K.\il.JO: Aoyw TOU TTpoocpaTou TTpa~IKoTTr'l
!JaTOe;. 01 ~tVO I ETTEv6uTte; 6foTO~av va I5Eo}JEuoouv TO xp~J,JOTa TOUr; OTIl xwpa Via tva ETOe;.
01 Kaoo6vl5pEr; TWV ayopwv ETTo'\1l9U TIlKav. 01 ~EToxtr; ETTEOOV ~tXPI KOI 19% Tllv ETT6~EVIl
~tpa, avoYKa~oVTas Tr) I5loiKIlOIl TaU XPlllJOTIOTIlPiou va 1510Ko4Jtl Hl cruvtlSpfaol) Yla TTplinl"\ cpopd
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01 ApxtS T'1e; TaOAavl5'lS. UTTO Trlv TTiEOfl TWV VtYOVOTWV. ovaKoivwcrav all 01 TTEPIOPlcr~of 6EV
SO ioxuav Yla ETTEVlSuOEIe; OE IJEToxte;.
01 OyOPES ETTlKpoTIlcrav ! napa TO ytyovoe; all tYKUPOI TToPOTIlPIlTte;, 6TTWe; 01 Financial Times ,
Eixav ETTl15oKI~ooEI TOUS ovaKolvw6tVTES TTEPIOPIO ~OU S we; Trlv AIYOTEPO KaK~ aTTo MES TIS ETTIAoytS
TWV APXwv TrlS TaOA6v6'lS. KOI TTapaTI TTOPO!J010l TTEPIOPIOJ,Joi Eixov ETTI!3,\"SEi aMoO, f).\tTTETt TO
'encaje' TIlS XIA~S, xwpfS va uTT6p~ouv TETOIEr; TTapEvtpYEIEe;.
H lpwvEfa ( ivOi OTi 01 APXtS TIlS ToOA6v15I1S TTpocrrra8oucrov va TTEPIOpfoouv TIS KEp15oaxoTTl
Kie; Elopatr; KECPO'\ofwv TIS OTTO fEr; TTPOKaAOOOE I) TOX(io ovdmu~'1. 'EvtKO OUTWV, TO v6f,JI0J.l0 TIlS
xwpas, TO baht, (fXE OVOTlJ,JI)8Ei KOla 16% tVOVTI TOU 60Aopiou TO 2006 , TTPOKO.\WVTOS Til 15uo<popia
TWV E~OVWytwv.
OOPElOt, 1tlO TJe;, tTJv 1tEpi1tHOOT} 1ttPOA1)C; 1tf:PLOPlOJlWV JlOVO 01a lOU!l1lKU KtpuAata.
Kat 0" UUT~ T~V 1lEpimwo~ , OfL"", '1 U1!(iVT~O~ OTO lIpouvu'I'Ep9tv EPWTIlfLU Eivat apv~
llK~. KaT ' apx~v, oev dvat KaSoAou oiyoupo 6Tt OL -ouv,;SWS-OlOPLOfLVES alIO TU; 1(0
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oia ylQ va KUVOUV 10 OWOtO. AKOJlTJ XEtpOtEpa , E{Vat a~tpipOAO on oev ea 1nolW~OUV to
1tpocrOO1tlKO Oq:> EAO<; Ete; papoe; tOU KOtvOOVtKOU ouvoAou.
EmlIAtov, 01 apv~nKts lIpoOOOKiES TWV ayopwv Sa oo~y~oouv OE U'l'~A6TEPO ao'l'o.
Aunpo KlVOUVOU Kal, m9avov, U'VTJAOUpO aotpuAtotpO pruOtOtTJ1at;, Kae61:t AtYOtEPOt ~
llVOUTtS Oa otalIpawum)ovTOl Ta a~16ypCt'l'a KCtl 10 vOfLlOfLa T~S xwpCtS. AUTOs OE 0 Kiv
OUVOS EivaL fLEyaAuTEpos Eo.V 01 UlIOAOl1tES XWPES CtKOAOUSOUV 1I0AmK~ o.pOEWS TWV lIEPl
OPLOfLWV, 6llWS ~TaV 0 KavOvCtS ons Ctpxts T~S OEKaETias TOU 1990. EivCtl 8iJOKOAo va d
Val KCtVEie; ({ Jlaupo 1tp6patO)).
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lOV. 10w<; f:ivat KaAUtEpa va aVtl)lEtWmotOuv Ot mtlE<; aVtl tlOV OUJl1ttWJlUtoov. rLa n:apa
Of:tYJlu, TJ KaAU1PTJ E1ton:tEia tov XPTJJlatOOlKOvOJltKOU ouot~Jlatoc; Jl1topEi va JlElWOt to.
OTpE~Ao. Kiv~TPCt TWV OTa9EPWV loonf!lwv (PAtlIETE T~V ev6T~Ta 16.5 " EtotKo. etfLaTa").
MIKPOOIKONOMIKH 0EOPHIH, Av oE )laKpOOlKOVOJllK6 n:tn150 e:iVat 15uoKoAo va
KtL)lT}SEi 6.v 10. SEnKO. tOOv ouvaAAaYJlattKoov n:EPlOptOJlWV U1[P1POl)V 1WV apVTJttKWV,
OE fLtKPOOlKOVOfLtK6 ERillEllO EivOl fLaAAOV El>KOAO. Ot OTPE~AWOElS TU; 01lOU:S llPOKCtAOUV
ane; an:Oq:>UOL<; Kat to crXEnKo KOOta<; YLa n<; EmXf:Lp ~Ol<; Kat ta V01KOlCU pla ELVal 0l1)la~
vnKE<;.
KaT' CtPX~v, 0' cruVCtAAaYfLaTtKOi llEplOplOfLo~ Jl TO va llEPLOPU;OUV T~ otaSEOlfLOT~
to. KEq:>aAailOv, avc;avouv to K60to<; 15avtoJloU tWV 1tlXElP~O OOV Kal VOLKOlCUptWV. Mo.
AloTa, 600v a'l'opo. ns E1lt:<pp~OElS, ElI~pEo.SEt lIEPlOOOTEPO n s f!waiou KCtl fLIKPOU fLEYt
8 "Thais put baht under tight capital controls", "Capital controls could preven t baht take~off' ,
"Thai retreat on equity controls after shares dive". To 800 npcino ap9pa 8TUWO'lu91)KOV tllV 19 11
~(K(J.lPp(OU 2006, to trito tllV f:1tOj.levll I)J.lipa.
25
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eou~
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1IOAtllKi:, otuauVoeol, ytu vu 1IWq>AT]SOUV U1IO TOU, 1IP10ptaIlOU, (PA1Il TT]V CV01T]
TU 4.4 "0WlltKO flAUiolO KUl flpClYllClllKa Ellll0KtCl").
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llPlOPLOIiOi ouvullapxouv 11 ClVU1wTAOllanKo xpT]llaToOLKoVOIiLKO O"UOTT]lla (cvOTT]Ta
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yaAT] olallpaYllaT!:UnKti OUVUIlT] on, avunoTEAEOIlUTlK, TpallE(E, tvUVTl TWV KamSErWV
Kat nilv oUVt(OlltvwV.
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vouv 1l0AUTlIlOU, uvOpwmvo~ mipou" Kat IlciAuna ano Kopuq>aia aTtAm TOU" O"TllV
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AnAeUSepwaT] TOU XPT]IlUTOOlKOvoIiLKoti ruoTtiliuTo, TT], EUao~". H Oe oLaq>Oopa, T]
onoia tXE. l Koaloc; YlO, tlC; E1tlXE1P1l0EtC;, oraotaKO, EnEKtEiVETat Kat a atJ.C; opaOTllPtot'l
tEe; HOV 111XEtp'ftOEWV nEpo.v uurwv Ot onoiE<; crXti~OV'[Ul IlE tOUe; cruVo'AAaY\lUtlKOUC; 1[
PlOPWlloti,.
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xpT]llaTOoOTtiO"e"" ival OUYKOLvwvouvm Ooxeia.
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OAOU, TOU, OWAtiVe, TOU ouOTtilluT~, wOw, TO KDKAOq>OpOtiv uypo Oa ava(T]Tei TOU, Ol
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autou
K60'tou~ tou~.
o opo, auvaUaYIlUTlK8, KpioL, uvaq>pTUl aTT]V U1l0 TT]V 1IieaT] TWV yeYOVOTWV aUayti
TT], ouvaU aYllaTlKti, 1tOAlTLKft" 01IW, ulloTillT]OT] KUnOLa, muOt pas lOOTlllia, ti Otrupuv
OT] TOU ttipo~ CVO, targel zone. r tvlKOTepa, avuq>pElat KUl OTllV llltO"T] eni TT], LaOTlIl(~
T] onoia OCV KaT8AT]~e ae Konolo ana ra npoavuq>ep9tvra yeyovora oton 01 APXt, aTtiPl
~av lie elIlTIlxia TT]V lOonllia, eiTe lie 1tapIlPaaT] aTT]v uyopa ouvaUawaTo" eiTe 11 a
vooo TWV e1lLTOKiWv, eiTe 11 KtlnOLO auvouaallo TWV liDo (tvSero 14.9 "flaptIlPaOT] OTT]V
Ayopa rUvaUaYlluTo, "),
flUpOTt OL cv AOyW Kpiol, OCV a1l0TAOUV a"wovo q>UlVOlieVO, pAt1tere Yla napa
oLYlia TT]V unO-tvOTT]ra "H TapaxwoIl, nepiooo, TOU MecronoAEllou, 1919 -1939" aTT]V
cvoTT]ra 13,6, n, TeAeuraie, liDo oKaTie, KaTEaTT]aav Slla UlXIl~'. KaT' apxtiv, au~ti91lK to Mty8o~ nov 1tl1ttwm:wv to'U~ OTllV otKOVOI.llu Kat trlV KO\V{i)via. BAt1tt OXtl
Ktl TO tv9ero 6.7 "To MaKpOXPovLO KooTo, TooV Kpiooov - H Elllltpia TT]S N.A . Ao(a," .
AU~IWT]Ke KUl T] O"uXVOTT]Ta TWV Kp(awv. rUYKeKptlltva, o"TT] OKaT(a tOU 1990 u
1ttlpl;uv tp[u KUMUta tttou.ov Kpfcrcov, Ta o1tOta 1tllPEaaav
uvnTuy~tv~
Kat OV01tTUa
aOIlCV, XWPe, a oAo TOV Koallo: TT]v OLTiu 1992 - 1993, 11 SUliara xwpS - IltAT] TOU
Em (pAtnTe TO tv9'T0 16.3 "George Sores KUl T] KpiOT] TT], rTepAiva, TOV l:t1lTIlPPlO
1992"), TT]v OlET(a 1994 - 1995, Il OUlia TO M~IKO aTT] AaTlVlKft AlltPtKti, KUl TT]V o.tTiu
1997 - 1998 , lie Otillara xwpe, TT], N.A. Aoia,.
26
LXOA(C( XC( E1t(rl1fJ.OtvcrE(\; Mt6wv EUTIQOcrOEXTC(,
ouv9f]KS crE ~ia x6Jpa, on{J)S ouvije{J)S ou~paiV1 Ot'lv npei~'l, 01 pots tWV v AOY{J) Ktpa
Aai{J)v avtllvaKAouv ns umipxouoES nA~potp opiS 01 onoits crUV'lYopouv untp TOU avano
<pEUK'tOU tffiV KpiaCDv. kE autr, tllV 1t8pilltcoall, Ol 81lE;VOUtE~, 01 01l0(m pAnouv j..lllpocrta
Kat llpocrna80uv va opouv 1tplV ta Y)'OVOtU, allAti:l~ E1l1taxUvouv tTlv EAeuatl tou~. Mllv
nupopoAEltE Aomov TOUS aYYAlotpOPOUS, Kat O'l otav npocrtp t pouv Keinola K01VWV1KD u
n~pcria ~E TO va 1UtaxUvouv t~ ADljI'l t{J)v avaYKIl[{J)v ~E Peicr'l O'Kovo~IKn KplTT\pla a
1tOq>CmEWV.
Ev ntlml npmt6JcrEt,
cruvaAAay~a
To ICtiPlO ap9po y\O. to. unooti'YI-lutO, }'Il; YL"Vac; dvat "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises",
by Paul Krugman , Journal olMoney, Credit and Banking, Vol. II , No.3, pp. 31 1 - 325, 1979. ria
to. U1toot lyj..lata 2'1~ycvt6:C;, to ap9po ** .
27
LXOAl()( X()(l E1tla1j[.locvaEl<'; Aa6wv EU1l(?OaOEx't()(.
KEt.prlA.o:IO 17
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nol.ltIK~ ~ anoio EivOl auI'POT~ I'E T~ OtOT~p~a~ T~S aT08Epas
laotll'ios
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OElYI'O TOU Krugman (1979), Ot ApXtS OKOAou80tiv ElIEKmTlK~ O~I'OalOVOl'l~ 1I0l.tnK~ ~
olIoio O~l'lOupyEi tHEtl'l'o aTO laol;tiylO TpExouawv auvoUoywv (pl.rnETE axenKo. TO
aevciplo I'E TO UlIOOElYI'0m IS/LM KOl Mundell-Fleming aTa KEq>o.AOlO 10, IS KOl 16).
Mio o.n~ nopal.l.oy~ EiVOl ~ eq>oPl'oyij npoypo.l'l'OTOS <H08EpanOl~aEms po",aflEvo OT~
auvol.l.ayI'OnK~ laotll'io (pl.tnETE TO Ev8ETO 5.3 "Exchange-rate-based Stabilization
Programs"), TO OlIoio oO~YEi oe lIpOYl'OnK~ avoTil'll"~ TOU vOl'iOI'OTOS KOl tl.l.Ell'I'O aTO
taol;tiyto Tpqouowv auvol.l.oywv. eo I'"OpotiaE, Enia~s, vo EivOl ~ onp08uI'io Tmv Ap
XWV va ol.l.o.c,ouv I'ia EnlWmI'Ev~ I'EXPl T6TE lIol.tnK~ EnE10~ al.l.ac,av Ol Ec,mtEplKES
aUVe~KES:
napaOElYI'O, ElIill.8E tiq>Ea~ aTOUS KtiplOUI; El'nOplKotiS Emipous t~S xwpaS
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va ultoaTmiv 1tiS8a~ AOym contagion, oltm<; ~ Kop Ea aTO o!:liTpo !:E,a~~vo TOU 1997, ~!:
Ta T~V uROTi~~a~ TOU vo~ia~aTo<; T~<; TaijAavo~<;. A Ha Kal 01 ~l:'(aAI:<; xwp<; OI:V EiVat
aTpmTI:<;. B AtRET TO ltapaoly~a TOU H.B. TOV L1tTE ~PplO 1992 (EvSETO 16.3).
TIaVTW<;, ~ia xwpa ~ laxupa S~Alwo~ OIKovo~IKa ~I:Y ES~, 6Rms raxEia aV I<1TTuE,~ ,
U\1'~Ati altaax6A~a~ Kal EU\\I'~ ~aKpooIKOVO~IKWV aVlaoppomwv, OI:V (Vat uaAm~ a
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Kar' flvflAoyia, ~la KUPtpvll<J1l '1 on:oia ava~tvral va un:pamuO'tEl !fIV laOtl~(a )1
0'8tvo~ Kat a1tOrAO'lla!LKOrllra, )1O:AAOV c5EV Sa XP ElacHi 1tOre va ro Kavl KaS on 0\
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KoAo. ERl1tUOV, OI:V Eival RavTOTE ltOAtHKa E'I'tKTti ~ aAAayti ~ia<; Em,"x~~~<; OlKOVO
~tKti<; llOAlTtKti<; ~E T~V ltpoaooKia on ~ xwpa (am<; KaraaTet EuaAmT~ aE KEpOOaK01ttKti
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tiaouv oK<ioE<; Ot, ooAapta.
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auv TOt<; aAAot<;, T~ o~~tOupy(a altaaTaSEpaltat~nKwv RpoaoaKtwV (PAtRErE T~V 1:V6T~ra
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OaaKOlttKt<; EmStaEl, OI:V iva< EK TOU a(J(paAoti, (EvSETO 16.2). Ka< ~E n <; otio, Ot <epoo,
OK01tot c5EV ex.ouv KivIlrpo vu 87t1!80uv.
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Devaluations'
ol5rlY~O'1
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15.
Contractionary devaluations due to balance sheet effects . Bordo (NBER, 2003). pp. 11-12
31
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eafllKo rrEplDilAAOV) va aS1OllOlTJaEl aUTo TO llAOVEKT'lfla. Kal aUTO OEV laXVl floVO Yla
avarrTUaaoflEVE, XWpE,. To clff05lKVUEl ~ EflrrElpia T'lS Iarrwvias aT~ oBKania TOU 1990.
BAErrTE aXEnKu 10 EveETo 5.13 "0 AVTmA~eooplafl6s HIS Iallwvias, 1999 - 2005".
EYEAEolA riA THN ANTIMETnmrH t.IATAPAXON . Ol fleraDA~!ES laonfliES rrapExOUV, B
rria'lS, uBAlsia Yla T'lV aVHflBH;'llla'l ESWYEVWV olarapaxwv, flElwvovras TO OlKOVOfllKO
Kat KOIV())Vt1(O KOatOt; rou<;. M E op OU~ )1TlxaVl1(~<;, 01 tcrotl~iE<; )1nopouv va AEltOUpyitcrouv
ws arroppocp'lTE, KpaoaaflWV.
eEwpEiaTE flia xwpa T'lS orroias flByaAo flEP OS TWV Esaywywv Eival rrpWTES VAES,
rrX, 0 Kavaoas TJ flia av amUaaOflEV'l xwpa T~S AcpPl~ S Mia flEyaA'l mw~ T'lS HflTJS
tOOV npWtCDV UAcOV, Kat tt01E<; ntOOals eivat crUVit8E1<; 01tOOs mat 01t01el to tV8EtO 3.7
Yrro flBwD A'lTES laOHfliES, flia U1WTifl'l~ TOU vOfliaflaTOS Sa DO'leij"El va flElooSOUV
01 aVoo!Epoo apv~nKES auvErrElBS: ea aUS'leOVV 01 BsaYOOYES LiU oov rrpoloVToov Kat U1tTJ
PEcrlWV, KOt )ipo<; pyat;,o)1Evoov 01
ra EvSEra 16.1 "KEpSoaK01llKES EmSEaEU; - EK TOU AacpaAous;" KaL 6.7 "To MaKpoxpo
V10 KoaTOS!WV Kpi"ewv - H Efl1tElpia TIjS N.A . Aaias" .
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orroias !a llpOflATJflaW fliaS xwpas 1t'lPEO!;OUV KaL aAAES flE ns orroiES 'l EV \Dym xwpa
5EV EXE l OlKOVOfllKOUS TJ anouS 5aflous. BAt1tE!E aX!lKa T'lV EV6!'lra 14.5 "Iao!;Uy1O
XPTJfla1OolKovofllKWV LuvaUaywv - Em5paalS" .
MIKPOTEPH nl0ANOTHTA AnoToMoN AMArnN. tva Amo auyKpmKo llAOVEKT~fla
TWV fleW[lA'l!WV laonfllwv EivaL on Ol auvEXEis fllKpt, aUaYES !OUS eltlTpt rrouv T'l "w
5la~ 5lopSm"TJ aVlaoppomwv, MOTpEnoVTas TTJ O~flloupyia flEyaAWVaVlaOppOn,,;'v.
ria rrap6.SE1Yfla, 'l aw51aKij oVOfla"nKTJ U1tortfl'la'l 10U vOflt"fla!OS fltas xwpas TJ
onoia EXEl UIjJTJAOTEPO rrA'lSmpl"~lO a1l0 TOUS EflllOP1KOU<; T~S naipous, a1tOTpErrel !'l flE
YOA'l llpaYfla!l~ avaTiflTJa'l 'l olloia, apya TJ ypijyopa, Sa 05TJy00aE '" flEyaA'l urro!iflTJ
all H t EAUtoia 90. AELtOUpyouot onooraeEpmto1llttKCt, avatprovra<; Eva uno ro. aUyKpnl
Kc1 nA.EOVEKt~)1ato roov crra8EpcOv lcrOtl)1lcOV, 10lain:pa 6aov a<popa atll XPll~atOOlKOvO
fll~
ara6EpoTIjTa.
nEPIHOTEP O A=IOniHA l:HMATA Ano T1r TIMEr.
TEAoS, 01
fl EraDA~!ts
l"onfliES, ou
ote; HJlE; 0\ lOlE<;, EVIOXUOUV ta a~~taro roov tt)1oov. Aura. be ro cr~llata., 01tWe; avaAu811KE
aT~V EVOT'lTa 5.2 "To KoaT os 10U I1A'lSWP1C1flou", KaS05~youv TU; wtOCPO"lS oAoov ,WV
01Kovofl1KWV napayoVTmv K(11 auflflaUouv C1TTJ Pt Arl"!TJ Karavoflij TooV lIeplOpl"flEvooV
35
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Vll auyKUpia , f:yKEl'tal (HTlV l[OcrOtlKtl EK'tl)l'lO'1 tll>V aV(OtplO cruYKpttlKcllV 1tAOVEKtrllUl
nov. Keitt to
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aouvato.
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pii;l VI~Ti} aT~ aOYKpla~ ~Ta(;U TUlV cruaT~~aTUlv. Ev auvTo~ia, ov 'l'a[vETOI va u
napXt aUaXETLa~ ~"a(;u TOU aKOAouOou~Evou cruan'waTo<; KOI TOU pue~ou ausijatUl<;
TOU KaTU Kt 'l'aAi}V lIpay ~anKo" laoOij~aTo<;.
Nal ~V Ta cruaTij~aTa aTaeEpooV laon~Loov ivat auaXETtcr~Eva ~t xa~~A6Tpo lIA~
OUlpta~O, aMu EivOl OiJaKoAo va alIo~ovUlOi ~ rr(opaa~ TOU cruaT~~aTO<; ano uMou<;
E(;Ulyvl<; lIUpayovT<;. rta napa8ty~a, ~ btKaT[a TOU 1970, oTav OL ntp",aoTpt<;
pt<; ~ETt p~aav at crtiaT~~a ~"aPA~Toov ",on~toov, xapaKT~pli;oTav alIo U'II~Ao nA~eUlpl
a~o at lItpt680u<; tlpijV~<;. "O~Ul" ijTav ~(a mpaxoo8~<; OtKaET(a, xapaKT~pti;6~v~ , ava
~aa a aUa, ano n , bUO n"pu alKt<; Kp(at<; 01 ono[e<;, KaTa YVtKij napaooxi}, cruvt
paHav Ta ~uU a aT'lV Kp'l1;~ TOU nA~OUlpla~ou. En[a~<;, OtV tiVOl aiyoupo on ~ cruvi>
naps~ TOXia<; avamUStUl<; ~t xa~l]AO nA~SUlpta~O TL<; 8iJ0 npooTe<; 8tKaETi<; TOU crua:'ij
~OTO<; ' Bretton Woods' ijTav alIoTtAa~a KUlOXl atTia T~<; maOEpOTIlTO<; TUlV Lcron~toov.
Mfl PWO"t1tE, En:{crTJ~, va cru)..l1tc:pavu: 6tt to. evolCt)..lscra crucrtrHlata, 'to. onola cruv
5\)ci~ouv to. OUYKPltlKCt 1tAOVtKt~)..lO:ta KO t(i)V auo clKPlOV, Kat E11:rrprnouv !lStUKlVTlO"l1
xoo
36
LXOAlO( Xo(l
smay]flocvasl~
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Kat 10
Etpawo1;o~evo cn\(n~~a:
cn\OT~~a
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va 1(ttpTEI etl~a Tll<; 1lITUXia<; TOU. Na
au~eE<;
TO
tpatVO~EVO
au~P6AAEt, O~Aao~,
!:va EmTUX~~!:v O
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crtlVXtcrr, t Ou Kat va EVblKVUtat f] uvtlKUr<l<Ytaml 'WD arr6 KCt1tolO 6./..AO aUo"tf])la . rla
axntKa 1(apaoiy~aTa pAtm:" TO !:veno 5.3 "Exchange-Rate-based Stabilization
Programs" Kat TO !:veETO 17.3.
KAE(VOVta<;,
OT~ V 1ltAoy~
evo<;
cn>aT~~aTo<;
OEV ~1[a(vouv eUKoAa ato KUAoum K<l.1tOlas 8wpim;. XapaKtllPHHtKCt, to pumo)lf:vo ata
xpua o atiaT~~a ameEPWV 1000n~twv yKaTaAitpe~KE OTaV I;tO'1(aO'E 0 A' naYKOO'~IO<;
nOAt~o<;.
Evw
1ltAoyi] TOU
OUTE Kat
OT~V
KUta
vou
entAoyi] TOU
~na
TTJV
TOV B'
TIaYKoO' ~1O
TIOAl.1O
auaTi]~aTO<; to'on~tWV
auO'T~~aTO<;
U1((XPXEt liKOA~
' Bretton
Aua~ !
10 flO ~ia E:SatP:nl(~ Kat ~11 H:xvn.:ft cru~~tflcr'1. p),m;tt: to apBpo to\) Michael Bordo "Exchange
Rate Regime Cho ice in Historical Perspective", NBER Working Paper N o. 9654, A1t piAlO ~ 2003.
rta ).lia 1tplO"cron;po n:xvucTl crusirtTtOTl, pAi::xCtf. to apBpo 'tOU Jeffrey A. Frankel "Experi ence and
:A yEW, A. A v1(ouMto,
37
LXOAtCl( XCI(t e1lta1]!J.~vaet~ Mt6wv 801lQoaOex'tCl(o
, "'
K:z~ciAa.tD
17
,
l!.IE0NH EnENl!.YTIKA KE<I>AMIA .......................................................................................... I
0ETIKtI...
....... . 4
'Ev6(TQ 17.2. To CA < 0 TWV H.n .A - Kivouvoc; Via ulv nOYKoa".1I0 OIKOvoIJiO; . . .. ..... 7
ApVIlTIKO...
...... . 8
.... 14
Ta~lv6~~a~ ...
.. .... 17
'EV6CTO 17.6. 'Interest Equalization Tax' - rlOXOI KOI (AlTp6[3AElTTO) AlTOrEAEO).lOTO ... 19
I:roXOI. .. .
.. .... 20
.. 25
17.5 l:TAElEPEr KAI METABAHTEr IroTiMIEI - l:YfKPITIKA nAEONEKTHMATA ......... ..... ....... 32
38
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Mtllwv 1)1t(!OUOx't<X.