كتاب الملتقى الدولي الرابع -الأزمة العالمية وتداعياتها على دول المينا

‫ﻜﺘﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺒﻊ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻭل ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻤﻘﺭﺍﻁﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﻌﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﻠﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻝﻌﻠﻤﻲ‬
‫ﺠﺎﻤــﻌـﺔ ﺩﺍﻝﻲ ﺍﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ )ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ(‬
‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﻡ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻴﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻛﺘﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻠﺘﻘﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ‬
‫ﺣﻮﻝ‬
‫"ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﻫﻨﺔ ﻭﺍ‪‬ﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎ‪‬ﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬

‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﻝ‬
‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ ﻭﴰﺎﻝ ﺇﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ"‬

‫ﻓﻨﺩﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﺴﻲ )ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ(‬
‫‪ 09 - 08‬ﺩﻴﺴﻤﺒﺭ ‪2009‬‬
‫‪www.veecos.net‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﻬﺭﺱ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ‬
‫‪" - 1‬ا" ه! ه ر زﻡ ا واد ا ااه
؟‬
‫‪03‬‬ ‫‪..........................................................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ﻣﺴﻌﻮﺩ ﺍﳎﻴﻄﻨﺔ ‪ -‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ‪) -‬ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ(‬
‫‪ - 2‬ﻡ'ﻡ& وأ ب ا‪#‬زﻡ ا ا م ‪ 2008‬واﻥ‪ /‬ﺕ‪ *+, -‬ا)ول ا
ﻡ ‪.‬‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪..............................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﻳﻮﺳﻒ ﺃﺑﻮﻓﺎﺭﺓ‪ -‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺱ ﺍﳌﻔﺘﻮﺣﺔ‪) -‬ﻓﻠﺴﻄﲔ(‬
‫‪ - 3‬دور ا‪#‬ﺏد ا‪+‬آ ‪5‬دارات ا‪)9‬ات اد ‪ 2‬ا‪ 7‬س وا‪25‬ح ا‪)9 2 3‬وث ا‪#‬زﻡت‬
‫ا ‪ :‬درا ﻥ>‪.‬‬
‫‪39‬‬ ‫‪.................................................................,...................‬‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﷲ ﺍﳌﻮﻣﲏ‪ -‬ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ‪ -‬ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻧﻴﺔ‪) -‬ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ(‬
‫‪ - 4‬ا‪ #‬اق ا ﺏ @ ا?‪9‬ت ا

وﺕ‪ G 73‬ا‪#‬ﻡ@ ادي ﺏ)ول ‪E‬ل إ‪ 72‬وا‪C‬ق ا‪#‬و ‪.B‬‬
‫‪67‬‬ ‫‪...........................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﻋﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﺮﻱ‪ -‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﳏﻤﺪ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻳﺴﻲ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺎﻁ‪) -‬ﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ(‬
‫‪ - 5‬دور ا
ك اآ‪ 2 M‬ﻡ‪ L‬ا‪#‬زﻡ ا ااه
ﻡ‪ K‬إ‪E‬رة ‪I‬ﺹ )ول ﻡ
?‪ 7‬ا‪C‬ق ا‪#‬و ‪B‬‬
‫و‪E‬ل إ‪. 72‬‬
‫‪78‬‬ ‫‪...................................................................................‬‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﺯﻳﺪﺍﻥ ﳏﻤﺪ – ﺃ‪ .‬ﺣﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﺮﺯﺍﻕ‪ -‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺣﺴﻴﺒﺔ ﺑﻦ ﺑﻮﻋﻠﻲ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺸﻠﻒ ‪) -‬ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ(‬
‫‪ - 6‬ا‪#‬زﻡ ا ااه
وﺕ)ا‪ ,‬ﺕ‪ *+, -‬ا‪#‬داء ا‪P ' K‬ر ا‪#‬ﺝ
ا‪ 9 -E‬ا‪ML‬ا‪.‬‬
‫‪92‬‬ ‫‪. ........................................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍ‪‬ﻴﺪ ﻗﺪﻱ ‪ / -‬ﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﳉﻮﺯﻱ ﲨﻴﻠﺔ )ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ(‬
‫‪ - 7‬ا‪#‬زﻡ ا ا وأﺙه ‪ *+,‬ا ‪P‬رات ا وا‪ . 7 73‬درا ﺕ? ‪
, *+, 7‬ﻡ@ ا‪C‬آت‬
‫ا)رﺝ ‪ 2‬ﺏرﺹ ‪,‬ن وراق ا ‪.‬‬
‫‪.......................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻴﺪ ﺃﲪﺪ ﺻﺎﰲ ‪ -‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﺮﺍﺀ ‪ /‬ﺩ‪ .‬ﺷﻘﲑ ‪ -‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺮﺍ – )ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ(‬
‫‪105‬‬
‫‪ - 8‬اﻥ‪ /‬ت ا‪#‬زﻡ ا ااه

‪ *+,‬ادت
ن‪.‬‬
‫‪..........................................................................................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﺭﺍﻣﺰ ﺍﻟﻄﻨﺒﻮﺭ‪ -‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳉﻨﺎﻥ‪) -‬ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ(‬

‫‪131‬‬
‫‪ - 9‬ﺕ)‪ ,‬ت ا‪#‬زﻡ ا ا وأﺙه ‪ *+,‬اد ا

‪.‬‬
‫‪................................................................................................................................................................,..................‬‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﳏﻤﺪ ﳛﻲ ﺍﻟﺮﻓﻴﻖ ‪ -‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺫﻣﺎﺭ‪) -‬ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻦ(‬

‫‪140‬‬
‫ﻫل "ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ" ﻫﻲ ﺴﺒﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ؟‬
‫ﻤﺠﻴﻁﻨﻪ*‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﻤﺴﻌﻭﺩ‬
‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﻜل ﻓﻲ ﻋﻼﻗﺘﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪la financiarisation‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ "ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﻤﺩﺍﺨﻠﺘﻨﺎ ﻝﻡ ﺘﻨﺸﺄ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻡ‪ .‬ﺒل ﺘﻌﻭﺩ ﻨﺸﺄﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺫﻫﻠﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﺎ‬
‫ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺍﻨﻁﻠﻕ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﺒﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺇﻨﺠﻠﺘﺭﺍ ﻭﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻤﺘﺩ ﻝﻴﺸﻤل ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻁﺎﺭ ﻤﺎ ﺴﻤﻲ ﺒﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻭﺍﺸﻨﻁﻥ ‪.consensus de Washington‬‬
‫ﻴﺭﻯ ﻤﻨﻅﺭﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻀﻤﻥ ﺘﺨﺼﻴﺼﺎ ﻋﻘﻼﻨﻴﺎ ﻝﻠﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ .‬ﺍﻝﺴﺅﺍل ﺍﻝﻤﻁﺭﻭﺡ ﺃﻴﻥ ﻨﺤﻥ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ‪،‬‬
‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻭﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﻝﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﺘﺴﺎﻉ ﻨﻁﺎﻗﻬﺎ ﺒﻘﺩﺭ ﻝﻡ ﻴﺴﺒﻕ ﻝﻪ ﻤﺜﻴل ﻫﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻤﻌﺎﺵ ﻤﻨﺫ ﻋﺩﺓ ﻋﻘﻭﺩ‪ .‬ﻗﺩ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻤﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﺒﺫﻝﻙ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺠﻴﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻝﻜﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻻ ﻴﺼﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻭﻤﺎ ﺃﻜﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﻴﻭﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﺒﺩﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺴﻤﺢ ﻝﻠﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺒﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻭﺯﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻨﻁﺒﻕ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺨﺎﺹ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺇﺸﻜﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﺤﺕ ﻤﻭﻀﻌﻨﺎ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﺅﺍل ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻭﺭﻱ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ‪ :‬ﻫل ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﻤﺎ ﺘﻤﺨﺽ ﻋﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺒﺘﻜﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ؛ ﺴﻴﻤﺎ ﻭﺃﻥ ﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓ ﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫*‬
‫ﺃﺴﺘﺎﺫ ﻤﺤﺎﻀﺭ ﺒﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻴﻴﺭ – ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺩﺍﻝﻲ ﺍﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ – ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬ ‫ﺤﺴﺏ ﻋﻠﻤﻨﺎ‪ ،‬ﺤﺘﻰ ﻏﺎﻴﺔ ﻤﻁﻠﻊ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،2009‬ﺃﻱ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﻗﻴﺎﻤﻨﺎ ﺒﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻝﻡ ﺘﺘﻡ ﺘﺭﺠﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﻁﻠﺢ‬
‫ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻝﺫﺍ ﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﺒﺘﺭﺠﻤﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﻁﻠﺢ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﻫﻭ ﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ‪financiarisation.‬‬
‫ﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩﺕ ﺨﻼل ﻤﻭﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﻝﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ؟ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﺍﺏ ﺒﺎﻹﻴﺠﺎﺏ ﻋﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺴﺅﺍل‪ ،‬ﻜﻴﻑ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﻤﺜل‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ؟ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﺴﺌﻠﺔ ﻓﺭﻋﻴﺔ ﺘﺴﺘﺤﻕ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﺡ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻗﺩ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ‪ :‬ﻫل‬
‫ﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻤﻤﻜﻨﺎ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻴﻪ ﻤﻥ ﻨﻤﻭ‬
‫ﻤﻔﺭﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺎ ﻴﺸﻜﻼﻥ ﻤﺤﺭﻜﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬ ‫‪dèconnection‬‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ؟ ﻤﺎ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺼﺤﺔ ﻓﻜﺭﺓ ﺍﻨﻔﺼﺎل‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ؟‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺘﻨﺎ ﺇﺸﻜﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﺴﻨﺤﺎﻭل ﺇﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺼﺤﺔ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻰ‪ :‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺭﻜﺯ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل ﻭﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺘﻡ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻋﺠﻭﺯﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺘﻘﺘﻀﻲ ﺇﻓﺭﺍﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﻴﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺤﺘﻤﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺄﺯﻤﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻭﻝﺩ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻨﻅﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﺘﻨﺘﻬﻲ‬
‫ﺤﺘﻤﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ؛‬
‫‪ I‬ـ ﻤﻘﺘﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﻲ ﻭﻤﻭﻀﻭﻋﻲ ﻝﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻭﺇﻥ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻅﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻥ ﻴﺜﻴﺭ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻹﺸﻜﺎل‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻀﺨﻤﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺍﻨﻔﺠﺭﺕ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺴﺒﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻐﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﻀﻠﺔ ﺘﺨﻤﺔ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻋﺭﻓﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺁﻨﺫﺍﻙ‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻝﻸﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻭﺘﻁﻭﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻜل ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻗﺘﻀﻰ‬
‫ﻓﺴﺢ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺎل ﻝﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻫﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻨﺎ ﻤﻨﻁﻠﻕ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻨﺤﻥ ﺒﺼﺩﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻝﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ؛ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺘﻜﺭﻴﺱ ﻫﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺘﻡ ﻓﺭﺽ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺴﻴﻴﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻋﺎﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻻ ﻴﻘل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻥ ‪ %15‬ﻜﺤﺩ ﺃﺩﻨﻰ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻻ ﻴﺘﻌﺩﻯ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ـ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ـ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺤﺴﻥ ﺍﻝﻅﺭﻭﻑ ‪ %4‬ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‪ .2‬ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺅﻻﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﻴﻥ ﻴﻬﺘﻤﻭﻥ ﺒﺎﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﻻ ﺍﻝﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﻫﻭ ﺃﻤﺭ ﺨﻁﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻗﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﺒﻌﻴﺩ‪ .‬ﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﻝﻠﻭﺯﻥ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻤﺜﻠﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻭﻥ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺘﻴﻭﻥ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻭﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﺴﻴﺭﻱ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺤﺘﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺒﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻴﺨﻀﻌﻭﻥ ﻹﺭﺍﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﻴﻥ ﺨﻭﻓﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻗﺩ‬
‫ﻴﺘﺴﺒﺒﻭﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺭﺩﻭﺩ ﺃﻓﻌﺎﻝﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﻭﻀﻌﻴﺎﺘﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻝﺨﺭﻭﺝ ﻜﻠﻴﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﻤﺎل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ‪ .3‬ﺇﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺎ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﻴﻤﻴﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻭ ﺇﻝﻐﺎﺀ ﻭﻅﻴﻔﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻝﻘﺩ ﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺠﺭ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻔﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻬﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻗﺼﺩ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺭﺒﺢ ﻤﻤﻜﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﻷﺠﺭ ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺒﻨﻲ ﻭﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ ﺨﻁﻁ ﺍﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺘﻘﻀﻲ ﺒﺘﺴﺭﻴﺢ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻼﺯﻡ‬
‫ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﺤﻀﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺌﺎﺕ ﺒل ﺒﺎﻷﻝﻭﻑ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻝﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺩﺍﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻝﻬﺩﻑ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﺭﺒﺢ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻔﺴﺭ ﺠﺯﺌﻴﺎ ﺍﻝﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫‪levier d’endettement‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻋﺭﻓﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﺒﺩﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺤﺘﻤﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل؛ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻌﺎﻅﻡ ﺤﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻭﻤﻥ ﻜﺘﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﻘﺩﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﻊ‬
‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺘﻌﺩﺍﺩ ﻋﻤﺎﻝﻪ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ‪ .4‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺤﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺓ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻘﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻴﻔﻭﻕ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺤﺼﺹ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﻌل ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻔﺭﺩﻱ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﺒﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻤﺜﻴﻠﻪ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﻤل ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﺩﻯ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ‬
‫‪statut social‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻀﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻝﻠﻭﻅﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺠﻌﻠﻬﺎ ﺤﻠﻤﺎ ﻭﻤﺒﺘﻐﻰ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﺴﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﺎﻤﻌﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﺨﺒﺔ ﻤﻨﻬﻡ‪ .‬ﺒﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‪،‬‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻓﻜﺭﺓ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﻀﻭﺡ ﻭﻜﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﻠﻤﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻤﻔﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻜل ﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺤﺴﻥ ﻭﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻠﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪Michel Rocard,la crise actuelle est née en 1971, interview, le temps, jeudi 23 octobre 2008.‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪Marie Paule Virad, Faut-il avoir peur du marché, problèmes économiques,n°2495, 20 novembre 1996, pp.17 – 20.‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪Paul Jorion, comprendre la crise, http://contreinfo.info/article.php3,d_article=2216, consulté le 15 mai 2009.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﻬﻭ ﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻲ ﻜﻠﻪ ﻭﻋﻪ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺔ‪ .5‬ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻔﻜﺭﺓ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ‪ ،‬ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻤﻨﺫ ﻤﻁﻠﻊ ﺍﻝﺜﻤﺎﻨﻴﻨﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺸﺭﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺘﺤﻅﻰ ﺒﺎﻝﻘﺒﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﻹﻋﺠﺎﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ‬
‫ﻓﻜﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺴﻨﻌﻭﺩ ﺇﻝﻴﻬﺎ ﻻﺤﻘﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺍﺨﻠﺔ ﻭﺴﻨﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﻋﻼﻗﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ـ ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻭﺤﺎﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻠﻴﺒﺭﺍﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺠﺎﺀ ﺒﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻜﻼﺴﻴﻙ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﺩ ‪ ،les nouveaux classiques‬ﻭﻤﺎ ﺘﻀﻤﻨﺘﻪ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ‬ ‫‪néoclassiques‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻨﻴﻭﻜﻼﺴﻴﻙ‬
‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﺼﺩﺭ ﺇﻝﻬﺎﻡ ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬ ‫‪،dérégulation‬‬ ‫ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﻀﺎﻫﺎ ﺇﻝﻐﺎﺀ ﺒﻌﺽ ﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﻀﺒﻁ ﻭﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻵﺨﺭ‬
‫ﻝﻠﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ؛ ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﺴﻨﺭﻜﺯ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺭﻗﺘﻨﺎ ﻫﺫﻩ‪ .‬ﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﺠﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻝﻡ ﻴﻜﻥ ﺒﺈﻤﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻝﻭﻻ ﺍﻝﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﻨﻭﻝﻭﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻬﺎﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﺨﻀﺕ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺜﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﻨﻭﻝﻭﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺯﺩﻭﺠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺜﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺼﺎﻻﺕ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﺠﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻋﺭﻓﺘﻬﺎ ﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺎ ﺭﺍﻓﻘﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺠﻭﺯﺍﺕ ﻤﺯﻤﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻨﻅﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﺸﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺼﺤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺸﻜﻠﺕ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺃﺤﺩ ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺒﺭﻭﺯ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ‪ .6‬ﻤﺒﺩﺌﻴﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﺒﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺘﻼﻩ ﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻝﻜﻥ ﺍﻜﺘﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻝﻡ ﻴﻜﻥ ﻝﻴﺘﻡ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻨﺩﻤﺎﺝ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺇﻝﻐﺎﺀ ﺘﺨﺼﺹ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﺇﻝﻐﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺤﻭﺍﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺘﻔﺼل ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ .‬ﺒﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬
‫ﺴﻭﻕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪S. Johnson, Comment la finance a conquis et ruiner l’Amérique, http://contreinfo.info/article.php3?d_article=2683,‬‬
‫‪consulté le 25/6/2009.‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺘﻤﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺸﻴﺨﻭﺨﺔ ﺴﺒﺏ ﻝﻬﺎ ﻋﺠﺯﺍ ﺍﺸﺘﺭﺍﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻤﻤﺎ ﺩﻓﻊ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺌﻤﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﻋﻥ ﺤﻠﻭل ﻜﺎﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍل ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺒﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺭﺴﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﺴﺒﺏ ﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﻝﻠﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﻝﻐﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺘﺩﺨل ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻋﻤﻼﺕ ﺃﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺠﺩ ﺤﻠﻭﻻ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺘﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺫﻝﻙ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﻤﻭﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﻝﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺒﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺯﺩﻫﺭﺕ ﺒﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﺎ ﺘﺴﻤﻰ ﺒﺎﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﻤﺎ ﺴﻨﺤﺎﻭل ﺇﺒﺭﺍﺯﻩ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺍﺨﻠﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ ﺘﺠﺩ ﻤﺼﺩﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺴﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﻝﻠﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻹﻓﺭﺍﺯﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻫﻤﺎ‪ :‬ﺘﺤﻭﻴل ﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﺘﺴﺎﻉ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻤﻴﺔ ‪،risques systémiques‬‬
‫ﻭﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺭﻜﺯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل ﻝﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪ ،‬ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻹﻓﺭﺍﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﻜﻤﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ـ ﻭﻝﻴﺱ ﻜل ـ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻤﻴﻘﺔ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﺴﻨﻌﺎﻝﺠﻪ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪dérégulation financiére‬‬ ‫ـ ﺇﻝﻐﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩ ﺒﺈﻝﻐﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻝﻴﺱ ﺇﻝﻐﺎﺀ ﻜل ﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﺒل ﺇﻝﻐﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺒﻌﺽ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﻌﺩﻴل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻵﺨﺭ ﻭﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﻀﺒﻁ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺤﺴﺏ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻘﺘﻀﻴﻪ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ ﻓﻌﻼ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﺒﺘﺩﺍﺀ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻨﺘﺼﻑ ﺍﻝﺴﺒﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺒﺨﺼﻭﺹ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺍﻨﻁﻠﻘﺕ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺇﻝﻐﺎﺀ ﺃﻫﻡ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻀﻭﺍﺒﻁ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺜﺭ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻝﻌﺎ‬
‫‪1933‬‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﻗﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺠﺎﺀ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫‪1999‬‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫‪glass- Steagall‬‬ ‫‪ .1929‬ﻭﻜﺎﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ ﺇﻝﻐﺎﺅﻩ ﻫﻭ ﻗﺎﻨﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻝﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﻐﺭﺽ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻐﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻀﺒﻁ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﺄﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﻭﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻭﺒﺄﻗل ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ؛ ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﺤﺼل ﻓﻌﻼ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﺸﺘﺩﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﻤﺎ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﺍﺯﺩﻴﺎﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﺸﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻀﺎﻋﻔﺕ ﺒﻘﺩﺭ ﻤﺫﻫل ﻝﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻥ ﺘﻌﺎﺩل ﻤﺎ ﻻ ﻴﻘل ﻋﻥ ﺜﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻀﻌﺎﻑ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ .7‬ﺍﻝﻤﻼﺤﻅ ﻫﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺍﺌﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺒﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﻼﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﺍ ﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺼﺎل ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻻﺒﺘﻜﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺴﻤﺤﺕ ﻝﻠﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻜﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﻼﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺫﺍﺘﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻨﻤﻭﻩ‪ .‬ﺒﺘﻌﺒﻴﺭ ﺁﺨﺭ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻝﻡ ﺘﻌﺩ ﺘﻘﺘﺼﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺤﻜﻴﻡ ﻓﻘﻁ ﻤﺜﻠﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻕ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﺍﺘﺴﻊ ﻨﻁﺎﻗﻬﺎ ﻝﺘﺸﻤل ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻓﺈﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻭﻅﻑ ﻋﺩﺓ ﻤﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻲ‪،Actif sous – jacent‬‬ ‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﺘﻰ ﻭﺇﻥ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺘﺴﺘﻨﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺼل ﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻷﺼل ﻭﻫﻲ ﺘﺴﻤﺢ ﺒﺫﻝﻙ ﻝﻤﻨﻔﺫﻴﻬﺎ ﺒﺈﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻋﺎﺌﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻤﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﻀﺒﻁ ﻴﻜﻤﻥ ﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻘﻼﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪.8‬‬
‫ـ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ ﻝﺘﺒﻠﻎ ﺤﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺫﺍﺘﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﻜﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻋﺭﻓﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻌﺒﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﻫﺎﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻜﺭﻴﺱ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل ﻭﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺍﺕ ﺇﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﻲ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻜﻜل‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل‬
‫ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻭﻅﻔﻭ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻴﺘﻘﺎﻀﻭﻥ ﺩﺨﻭﻻ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫‪1980‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻤﺜﺎل‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫‪2007‬‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻁ ﻋﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل ﻓﻲ ﺒﺎﻗﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻲ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫‪%10‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺭﻕ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﻝﻴﺒﻠﻎ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ .9%50‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻜﺘﻠﺔ ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1980‬ﺘﻤﺜل ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‪،‬‬ ‫‪ %2610‬ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ ﻝﺘﺒﻠﻎ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ‬ ‫‪2007‬‬ ‫‪ %13‬ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻜﺘﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺘﻌﻭﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻻﺒﺘﻜﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﻝﻰ ﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻔﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻀﻐﻭﻁ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﺎﺭﺴﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺘﻴﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﻡ‪ .‬ﺇﺫ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻴﺩﺨل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺼﻔﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻋﺩﺓ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﺜﺎل ﻻ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﺭ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﺘﺘﻡ ﺼﻔﻘﺔ ﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻜﻨﺩﻱ ﻭﻓﺭﻨﺴﻲ ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻤﻭﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻭﻓﻕ ﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﻗﺭﺽ ﻤﺼﺩﺭ ﻭﺒﻤﺒﻠﻎ ﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻤﺤﺩﺩ‬
‫‪7‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻲ‪ ،‬ﺤﺴﺏ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺒﻠﻎ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ 450000‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‬
‫ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﺒﻠﻎ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2008‬ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ 50000‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺒﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ‪ 9‬ﺃﻀﻌﺎﻑ‪.‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪Gibert Joseph, L’appel des économistes pour sortir de la pensée unique, le piège de la finance mondiale, édition la‬‬
‫‪découverte, 2000.‬‬
‫‪9‬‬
‫‪Pau Jorion, Comprendre la crise, http://contrinfo.info/article-php3?id_article =2216, consulté le 7 décembre 2008.‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪Paul Jorion, o.p.cit.‬‬
‫ﻭﻝﻴﻜﻥ ‪ 1‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻨﻬﺎ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻘﺘﻀﻲ ﺇﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺼﻔﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﻓﻲ ﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺇﺒﺭﺍﻡ ﻋﻘﺩ ﻗﺭﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺭ ﺒﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ؛ ﺘﻡ ﺘﺘﻡ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺭﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺘﻘﻠﺏ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﺃﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻜل ﻤﻨﻬﻤﺎ؛ ﻭﻫﻤﺎ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺘﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺘﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻠﺘﺎﻥ ﺘﻘﺘﻀﻴﺎﻥ ﺤﺼﻭل ﻜل ﻤﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻗﺭﺽ ﺒﻨﻔﺱ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺘﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺘﻡ ﺘﺤﻭﻴﻠﻪ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﻠﻎ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻭل؛ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗل‬
‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻤﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﺩ ﺍﻵﻥ ﺨﻤﺴﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻝﺼﻔﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﻜﺩ ﺃﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺴﻴﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻝﺠﻭﺀ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺭﻀﺔ ﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻨﻴﻥ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﺩﻴﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪les swaps de garantie de crédit ou crédit‬‬ ‫ﺃﻱ ﻝﺠﻭﺀ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺩﻋﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ ﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬
‫ﻤﻥ‬ ‫‪1995‬‬ ‫ﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ ﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻫﺫﻩ ﻷﻭل ﻤﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫)‪.défaut swap (CDS‬‬
‫ﻝﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﺴﻭﻗﻬﺎ ﺭﻭﺍﺠﺎ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺍ ﻻ ﻤﺜﻴل ﻝﻪ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2000‬ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ 900‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫‪،J P Morgan‬‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻑ ﺒﻨﻙ‬
‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫‪62000‬‬ ‫ﻓﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺤﺩﻫﺎ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ‬ ‫‪2007‬‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ؛ ﺃﻤﺎ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﻁﻠﻊ ﻋﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻘﺎﺭﺏ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺒﻜﺎﻤﻠﻪ ﻝﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﺒﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﻭﺠﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ ﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﻨﺘﻭﺠﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻗﺎﺒﻠﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﺩﺍﻭل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜﻠﻬﺎ ﻜﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﻭﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺘﻡ ﺘﺤﻭﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﻭﺴﻴﻠﺔ ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻭﺴﻴﻠﺔ ﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﻝﺘﻠﻌﺏ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﻫﺎﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺨﻼﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﻭل ﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻜل ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺼﻔﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺜﺎﻝﻨﺎ ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻋﺎﺌﺩ ﻝﺼﺎﺤﺒﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺒﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺠﻭﻫﺭ ﺘﻌﺎﻅﻡ ﺤﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺓ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻜﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻝﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﻼﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺫﺍﺘﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﻩ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍل ﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻫﻭ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻋﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺒﺘﻜﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﻤﻭﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﻝﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻝﻘﺩ ﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩﺕ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺠﻌﻠﻪ ﻴﻜﺘﺴﺏ ﺼﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﻼﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺫﺍﺘﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻁﻭﺭﻩ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﻩ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻨﻤﻭﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺫﺍﺘﻴﺔ ﺠﻌﻠﺘﻪ ﻴﻬﻴﻤﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻔﺭﺽ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺸﺭﻭﻁ ﺘﻤﻭﻴﻠﻪ ﺍﻝﻬﺎﺩﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺃﻤﺭ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻴﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﺌﺩ ﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻻ ﻴﻘل ﻋﻥ ‪ .%15‬ﺇﻥ ﻜل ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻁﺒﻌﺕ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﺘﺠﺩ ﺠﺫﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻷﺴﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﻏﻨﻰ ﺘﺸﻜﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﻭﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻔﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﻭﺍﺴﻊ‪ .‬ﻝﻘﺩ ﻋﺭﻑ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ‬ ‫‪exponentielle‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻬﺎ ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺤﺴﻭﺴﺔ‪ .‬ﺘﺠﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﻫﻨﺎ‬
‫ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺠﺯﺀﺍ ﻤﻌﺘﺒﺭﺍ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻴﺘﺄﺘﻰ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﻭﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.11‬‬
‫‪ II‬ـ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻻﺒﺘﻜﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻜﺭﻴﺱ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺠﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻨﺠﻤﺕ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺘﻡ ﺒﺎﺒﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺩﺓ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﻤﻜﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻌﺭﻀﻭﻥ ﺃﻨﻔﺴﻬﻡ ﺇﻝﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﻫﻡ‬
‫ﻴﻤﺎﺭﺴﻭﻥ ﺃﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‪ ،‬ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻝﻐﺎﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺒﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﻫﻭ‬
‫ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻔﻬﺎ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻝﻜﻥ ﻤﺎ ﺤﻘﻘﺘﻪ ﺍﻻﺒﺘﻜﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﻫﻭ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺠﺭﺩ ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺭﻓﻬﺎ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫‪ 20‬ﺇﻝﻰ‪ ،%30‬ﺫﻝﻙ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬ ‫ﺒل ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺒﺘﻌﺒﻴﺭ ﺁﺨﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﻤﺘﺄﺘﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﻤﺯﺩﻭﺝ ﻝﻠﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻨﻤﻭﻩ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﺎﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﺭﺽ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﻪ ﺍﻝﻬﺎﺩﻑ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﺢ ﺍﻝﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﻴﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ؛ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺘﺒﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺄﺘﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺤﻜﻴﻡ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ـ ﺇﺼﻼﺡ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻡ‪ ،‬ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺘﻤﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺘﻌﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﻴﺨﻭﺨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ‬
‫ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﻨﻴﻥ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﻜﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﻴﺔ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺕ ﺃﻋﺒﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺼﺤﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺠﻌل ﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ ﺘﻌﺠﺯ ﻋﻥ ﺼﺭﻑ ﻜﺎﻤل ﻤﻌﺎﺸﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩﻴﻥ ﻭﺘﻌﻭﻴﻀﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﺝ‪ .‬ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻋﺎﻨﺕ ﻭﻻ ﺯﺍﻝﺕ ﺘﻌﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻜل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
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‫ﺤﺴﺏ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ 20‬ﺇﻝﻰ ‪ 30‬ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺎﺌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻤﺘﺄﺘﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻘﻭﻝﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺨﺎﺹ ﻤﻨﺫ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﺘﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺼﺭﻡ‪ .‬ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺘﻬﺎ ﻝﺠﺄﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺇﺼﻼﺤﻴﺔ ﻋﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﺇﻁﺎﻝﺔ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﺸﺘﺭﺍﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻝﺘﺒﻠﻎ ﻤﺎ ﻻ ﻴﻘل ﻋﻥ ‪ 42‬ﺴﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ؛ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﺠﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻝﻡ ﻴﻜﻥ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺎ ﻝﺴﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭ ﺤﺘﻰ‬
‫)ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﻤﻴﺯ ﺒﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺴﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺴﺎﻋﺔ(‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﺤل ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻝﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺇﻝﻴﻪ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﺍﻷﻨﺠﻊ‬ ‫‪1800‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻨﻅﺭ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻷﻨﺠﻊ‪ ،‬ﻝﻡ ﻴﺒﻕ ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﺴﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺒﺈﺼﻼﺡ ﺠﺫﺭﻱ ﻷﻨﻅﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭل ﻤﻥ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺌﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬
‫‪système par‬‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻝﺭﺴﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ‬ ‫‪système par répartition‬‬ ‫ﺍﺸﺘﺭﺍﻜﺎﺕ‬
‫‪ .capitalisation‬ﻝﻘﺩ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺴﺒﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺒﺎﺩﺭﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1974‬ﻤﺘﺒﻭﻋﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺩﻭل ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻋﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﺘﺠﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ ﻋﺭﻓﺕ ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍ ﻤﺫﻫﻼ‪ ،‬ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻗﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻜل ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫)‪California public Employées Retirement (calpers‬‬ ‫ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﺜﺎل ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻥ ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ‬
‫ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻜﺎﺸﺘﺭﺍﻜﺎﺕ ﻝﻤﻼﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﺎل ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻭﻅﻔﻴﻥ‬ ‫‪80‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﻝﻭﻻﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻝﻴﻔﻭﺭﻨﻴﺎ ﺒﺘﺴﻴﻴﺭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﻋﻥ‬ ‫‪system‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻜﺎﻝﻴﻔﻭﺭﻨﻴﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ‬
‫ﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﻅﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺘﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﺸﺘﺭﺍﻜﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺎﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﺜﻠﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﺼﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺸﺘﺭﺍﻜﺎﺕ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺠﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻨﻔﺴﻬﻡ ﺒﺩﻭﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﺸﺎﺕ ﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ ﺃﻭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪.2002‬‬ ‫‪Enron‬‬ ‫ﺃﺤﺴﻥ ﺍﻷﺤﻭﺍل ﺒﻤﻌﺎﺸﺎﺕ ﺃﻗل‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﺤﺼل ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﻓﻀﻴﺤﺔ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺔ ﺇﻴﺭﻨﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺘﺠﺩ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻔﺭﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺘﻴﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﻝﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻻ ﺘﻘل ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﻜﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻁﻕ ﺘﺼﺭﻑ ﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪،‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪%15‬‬
‫ﺃﻱ ﻤﻨﻁﻕ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﻲ ‪ .capitalisme actionnarial‬ﺒﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﻓﺭﺽ ﻤﻨﻁﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻘﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺭﻏﺎﻤﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﻜل‬
‫ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﺢ ﻻ ﻏﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﻫﻭ ﺃﺤﺞ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻜﺭﻴﺱ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻝﻴﺱ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﻱ ﺘﺒﺭﻴﺭ ﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻴﻘﺩﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻫﻡ ﺍﻷﻜﺒﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺭﺃﺱ ﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻔﺭﺽ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻜﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺤﺴﻥ ﺍﻝﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﻫﻲ ﻻ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﻋﻥ ﺃﺭﺒﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫‪ %1512‬ﺍﻝﻤﺎﺌﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل ﻭﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺘﻡ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻤﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺭﻭﺽ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﻝﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﻤﻨﺎﺼﺏ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل‪.‬‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﻻ ﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺒﺭﺍﺯﻫﺎ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﺠﻠﺘﺭﺍ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺇﺼﻼﺡ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻤﻌﺎﺸﺎﺘﻬﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﻭﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ﺘﻭﻓﺭﺕ ﻝﻬﻤﺎ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺨﺎﺹ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺒﻨﻔﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭ ﻝﻐﻴﺭﻫﻤﺎ‪ .‬ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﻭﺍﻝﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺘﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺘﺎﻥ ﻜﺎﻨﺘﺎ ﺴﺒﺎﻗﺘﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻭﻀﻊ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﺸﺎﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﺭﺴﻤﻠﺔ ﺤﻴﺯ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﺘﺎﺡ ﻝﻬﺎ ﻓﺭﺹ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻋﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﻀﺨﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺠﻌل ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻷﺼﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﻝﻴﺒﺭﺍﻝﻴﺔ ﺼﺩﻴﻘﺔ ﻤﻔﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺴﻜﺎﻨﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﺒﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﺃﻭﻀﺢ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻀﺨﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺤﻘﻘﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺩﻭل ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻀﻤﻥ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺘﻤﺘﻊ‬
‫ﻤﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩﻴﻬﺎ ﺒﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﻌﺎﺸﻴﺔ ﺃﻓﻀل‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺃﻭﻝﻰ‬
‫ﻓﻬﻭ ﻴﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﻜﻭﻥ ﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﺸﺎﺕ ﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺒﻘﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻜﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺠﺩﺍ ﺘﻤﻜﻨﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﻐﻼل ﺍﻝﻔﺭﺹ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﻓﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻵﻥ ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺘﺒﻨﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﺸﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﺃﻭﺴﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻴﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺘﻀﺎﺅل ﻓﺭﺹ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺴﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﺵ‪ .‬ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻔﻜﺭﺓ ﺘﻨﻁﺒﻕ ﻝﻴﺱ‬
‫ﻓﻘﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺤﻘﻘﻪ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ ﺒﺎﻝﺭﺴﻤﻠﺔ ﺒل ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺘﻜﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺴﺒﺎﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻔﻬﺎ ﻤﻨﺫ ﻤﻨﺘﺼﻑ ﺍﻝﺴﺒﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺸﺭﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﻴﺒﻘﻰ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﻝﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻐﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ﺘﻬﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﺒﻐﺽ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ‬
‫ﻝﻠﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﻭﻝﻬﺎ‪.13‬‬
‫ـ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻝﻌﺒﺕ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﻫﺎﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻜﺭﻴﺱ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل ﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺍﺌﺢ ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻨﺫ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺜﻤﺎﻨﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺼﺭﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
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‫‪Journal Le Monde. Supplément économique, mardi 23 mai 2006.‬‬
‫ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﻭﺍﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﻤﻨﻪ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﻫﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﺎ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻨﺫ ﻋﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﺒﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻲ ﻗﺩ ﻋﺩل ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل‪/‬ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﻝﺼﺎﻝﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭل ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻤﻜﺭﺴﺎ ﺒﺫﻝﻙ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﻭﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺓ ﻝﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﻜﺘﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻜﺘﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ‪،‬‬
‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺩﻤﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻘﺕ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺤﺼﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻗﺩ ﻋﺭﻓﺕ ﻨﻤﻭﺍ ﻤﺘﻌﺎﻅﻤﺎ ﺨﻠل ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻝﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﻭﺍﺌﺩ‬
‫ﻨﺼﻴﺒﺎ ﻤﻌﺘﺒﺭﺍ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺘﻔﺎﻋل ﻋﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﺍﺜﻨﻴﻥ ﻫﻤﺎ‪:‬‬
‫ـ ﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺨﺯﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺭﻑ ﺒﺎﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ؛‬
‫ـ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻭﺯﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺒﺭﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻜﻭﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺩﻭﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺼﺎﻝﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﺴﺎﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺌﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻷﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺃﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﻼﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺸﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﻔﺠﺭ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫‪% 290‬‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ‬ ‫‪%400‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻨﻔﺠﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ‬
‫‪ .1929‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﻊ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻓﺎﺭﻕ ﻤﻬﻡ ﺒﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻌﺘﺒﺭﺍ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 1929‬ﻜﺎﻥ ﻨﺎﺘﺠﺎ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﺭﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻰ‪ .‬ﺒﺎﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻁﻠﻘﺔ ﺘﺒﻠﻎ ﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻷﻋﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﻴﻥ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﻁﻠﻊ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪2009‬‬
‫ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ 50‬ﺘﺭﻴﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﻋﻥ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﻀﻌﺎﻑ ﻨﺎﺘﺠﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ـ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺎ ﻭﺭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﻘﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺤﻭل ﺩﻭﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻜﺭﻴﺱ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﻝﻌﺒﺕ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﺠﺭ ﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﻤﺎﻤﺎ ﻤﺜﻠﻤﺎ ﻝﻌﺒﺕ ﻨﻔﺱ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﺭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺼﻴﻑ ‪ .1982‬ﺇﻥ ﺴﻌﻲ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻨﻴﻥ ﻝﺘﺴﺩﻴﺩ ﺩﻴﻭﻨﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬
‫‪ ،déflation‬ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺠﻌل ﺃﺜﺎﺭ ﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ‬ ‫‪des actifs financiers‬‬ ‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﻴﻌﻤل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻜﺱ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻨﻴﻥ ﻭﻗﺩ ﻴﺠﻌل ﻭﻀﻊ‬
‫ﺴﻲﺀ ﻝﻠﻐﺎﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺒﺘﻌﺒﻴﺭ ﺁﺨﺭ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻗﺎﻡ ﻋﻭﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺒﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺩﻴﻭﻨﻪ ﻓﻬﺫﺍ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺇﻝﻴﻪ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻴﺫﻜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻝﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﻝﻜﻥ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺴﻌﻰ ﻜل‬
‫ﺍﻷﻋﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺩﻴﻭﻨﻬﻡ ﻭﺘﻁﻬﻴﺭ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺘﻬﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺒﻴﻊ ﺠﺯﺌﻲ ﻜﺎﻓﻲ ﻷﺼﻭﻝﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ،deleveraging‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺘﺴﺒﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ‬
‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﻤﺎ‪.14‬‬
‫‪ III‬ـ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺩ ﺫﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻝﻴﺴﺕ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻝﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﻜﺩ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﺭﻓﺕ ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍ ﻜﻤﻴﺎ ﻭﻨﻭﻋﻴﺎ‬
‫ﻤﺫﻫﻠﻴﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﻬﺠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﺎﺒﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﺘﻭﻅﻴﻔﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﻭﺍﺴﻊ ﺘﻭﻝﺩ ﻋﻨﻪ ﻤﺨﻁﺭ ﻴﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻌﺭﺽ‬
‫ﻝﻬﺎ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺩﻭﻥ ﺸﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻀﺨﺎﻤﺔ ﻤﺒﺎﻝﻎ ﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﻭﺍﺌﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻜﺒﺩﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻨﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﻝﻴﺱ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺜﺎل ﺍﻝﻭﺤﻴﺩ ﺒل ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﺜﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﺄﺯﻤﺔ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﺘﺘﻡ ﺒﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﺒﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺠﺯ ﻤﻼﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﻼﺕ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﺩﻴﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻝﺸﻲﺀ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻝﺼﺭﻑ‪ .‬ﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﺘﻨﻁﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﻤﺠﺭﺩ ﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺒﺄﻗل ﺃﻭ ﺒﺄﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻨﻁﺒﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻤﺨﻀﺕ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﺒﺭﺘﻥ ﻭﻭﺩﺯ؛ ﻝﻜﻥ ﺘﺤﻭل ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﺤﺭﺓ ﺯﺍﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﻁﻭﻱ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﺒﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﺼﻴﻎ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜل ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻜﺎﺯ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻌﻭﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺍﺭ‪،‬‬
‫ﻝﻡ ﺘﺤﻭل ﺩﻭﻥ ﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﻝﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻭﻝﻡ ﺘﻘﻠل ﻤﻥ ﺩﺭﺠﺘﻬﺎ ﺒل ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻝﻘﺩ‬
‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﻫﺎﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺩﻭل‬ ‫‪ancrage monétaire‬‬ ‫ﻝﻌﺒﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﻁﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻜﺎﺯﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺸﺭﻕ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪.1997‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ ﺃﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﻓﻘﻁ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻻ ﺘﻘل ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ؛ ﻭﻗﺩ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺠﺯ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻓﻊ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺸﻴﻭﻋﺎ‪ .‬ﺘﺠﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﻤﺨﻁﺭ ﺍﻹﻓﻼﺱ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ ﻭﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺃﻀﻌﺎﻓﺎ ﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬
‫‪14‬‬
‫‪- Paul krugman, le symptôme de la déflation salariale, http://contrinfo.info/article- php3?id_article=2699,consulté, le‬‬
‫‪20 mai 2009.‬‬
‫‪- Thomas Pelly, Les risques de la liquidation, http://contreinfo.info/article.php3?article=2117, consulté le 20 mai‬‬
‫‪2009.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﺎل ﻗﺒل ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺯﺨﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺩﺍﻝﺔ ﻝﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻡ ﺨﻼل ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺕ ﺒﻘﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺃﻀﻌﺎﻑ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻓﻬﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﻫﻲ‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅ ﻝﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﺘﻌﺎﺩل ﻤﺎ ﻴﻘﺎﺭﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺘﻀﺨﻤﺕ ﻤﺭﺍﺭﺍ ﻭﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭﺍ‪.‬‬
‫‪ IV‬ـ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﻜﺭﻴﺱ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﺘﺴﺎﻉ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻨﻭﻋﺎ ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺩﻓﻌﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﺨﺒﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﺼﻴﻥ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﺒﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻗﺼﺩ ﺍﻝﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺒﺘﻜﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻵﺠﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﺘﺤﺕ‬
‫‪.Dérivés financiers‬‬ ‫ﺘﺴﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻴﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﻤﺢ ﻝﻨﺎ ﺇﺒﺭﺍﺯ ﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻜﺭﻴﺱ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل ﻭﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺴﺒﺒﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻭﻝﺩ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻨﻅﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻝﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻷﻭل ﻓﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻀﺨﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺤﻘﻘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺴﻊ ﺍﻝﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺃﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻓﻴﺨﺹ ﺁﻝﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺯﻡ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 1‬ـ ﺍﻝﺨﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ‪les options‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺨﺫﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﺜﺎل ﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﺨﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ‪ ،‬ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺒﺨﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺃﻭ ﺨﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻴﻊ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻘﻀﻲ ﺩﻓﻊ ﻋﻤﻭﻝﺔ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺃﻭ ﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺨﻴﺎﺭ ﻝﻠﺒﺎﺌﻊ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﺸﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺃﻱ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻝﺸﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻝﺨﻴﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭ ﻴﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻭﻝﺔ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﻤﺎﺭﺱ ﺃﻭ ﻝﻡ ﻴﻤﺎﺭﺱ ﺸﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﻴﺎﺭ ﺤﻘﻪ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻨﻁﺒﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺨﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ ﻴﻨﻁﺒﻕ ﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﻤﺎﻤﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺨﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺠﻤﻴﻌﺎ ﺘﺤﻘﻕ‬
‫ﻝﻠﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﻭﻻﺕ ﻤﻌﺘﺒﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪les swaps‬‬ ‫‪ 2‬ـ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﻲﺀ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﻴﻨﻁﺒﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺘﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﺌﺩ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﻗﻴﺎﻤﻬﺎ ﺒﺈﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍل ﻝﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﻓﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺎﻗﺩﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻨﻴﺎﻥ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﻓﻌﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻏﺎﻴﺘﻬﻡ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺭﺍﺌﻬﺎ ﺘﻨﻭﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻨﻭﻴﻊ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺒﻭﻀﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻔﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺃﻭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺃﻭ ﻏﻴﺭﻫﻡ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻝﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪ .‬ﻓﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻻﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﺜﺎل‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺘﺒﻊ ﻝﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻝﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺴﻴﺩﺭﻙ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﻤﻔﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻫﻭ ﺘﺤﺼﻴل ﺤﺎﺼل‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺃﻨﻪ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻤﻴﺯﺓ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻨﺠﺩ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺠﺭﻋﺔ ﺒﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻫﻭ ﺃﻤﺭ ﻻ ﺒﺩ ﻤﻨﻪ‬
‫ﻷﻨﻪ ﻤﻔﻴﺩ ﻝﻠﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻴﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﺇﻨﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺒﺘﻜﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻝﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺌﻨﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻤﻨﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪ .‬ﻭﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﻝﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺭﻓﻬﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬
‫ﺒﺒﺴﺎﻁﺔ ﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺌﻨﻴﻥ ﺒﻤﻘﺒﻭﻀﺎﺕ ﻓﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﻀﺨﻤﺔ ﻭﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺓ ﺒﺤﻜﻡ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻤﺨﺯﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻨﻁﺒﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﻴﻨﻁﺒﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﺎﻗﻲ ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 3‬ـ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﺠﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻗﺩ ﻅﻬﺭ ﻷﻭل ﻤﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪1972‬؛ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﻌﺩﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻔﻬﺎ ﻴﻘﺘﺼﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻝﻘﺩ ﻋﺭﻓﺕ ﺴﻭﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﻨﻤﻭﺍ ﺴﺭﻴﻌﺎ‬
‫‪effet de‬‬ ‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺨﺹ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ‪ .‬ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ ﺍﻝﻔﻜﺭﺓ ﻨﻭﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺜﺎل ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ‪ :‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻗﺎﻡ‬ ‫‪levier‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﺒﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻋﻘﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﺒﻤﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 6000‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺩ ﺴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ‪ 6000‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ‪= 10 x‬‬
‫‪ 60000‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻴﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﺃﻭ ﻴﻀﺎﺭﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﻤﺒﻠﻎ ‪60000‬‬
‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ ﻫﻲ ‪ 20‬ﻀﻌﻔﺎ‪ .‬ﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﻝﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﺸﻜل ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﺇﻤﺎ ﻝﻠﺜﺭﺍﺀ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺨﺭﺍﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﺭﻴﻌﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻤﺎﺴﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﻴﻥ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﺠﺌﻭﻥ ﺇﻝﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺒﻘﺩﺭ ﻤﻜﺜﻑ‪ .‬ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﻬﻲ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻝﻌﺒﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﺒﺎﻝﻎ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﺭﻁ ﻝﻸﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻘﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺼﺎل ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺘﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻰ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﺘﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل ﻭﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺍﺕ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻓﺄﻜﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪swaps de garantie de crédit‬‬ ‫‪ 4‬ـ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ ﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ ﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﺒﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺸﺎﺭﻱ ﻝﻪ ﻭﻫﻭ‬ ‫‪assureur‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻗﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻁﺭﻓﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺌﻊ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍل ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻠﻌﺏ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺅﻤﻥ ﻝﻪ ‪ .assuré‬ﻴﺩﻓﻊ ﺍﻝﺸﺎﺭﻱ ﻝﻠﻌﻘﺩ ﻋﻤﻭﻝﺔ ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺒﺎﺌﻊ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺘﺤﻤل ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭ ﻝﻤﺨﻁﺭ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﺩﻴﺩ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻥ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻓﻊ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺎﺭﻱ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻗﺩ ﺨﺴﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻭﻝﺔ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﻴﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻌﻭﻴﺽ ﻝﻜﺎﻤل ﺤﻘﻭﻗﻪ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻐﻴﺭ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻝﻡ ﻴﺤﺼل ﻋﺠﺯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻓﻊ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺌﻊ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻗﺩ ﺭﺒﺢ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻭﻝﺔ ﻭﻝﻡ ﻴﺘﺤﻤل ﺃﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﻭﻴﻀﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﺭﻓﺕ ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍ ﺴﺭﻴﻌﺎ‪ ،‬ﺒﺤﻴﺙ‬ ‫‪1995‬‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﻷﻭل ﻤﺭﺓ ﻋﺎﻡ‬
‫‪2009‬‬ ‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ ﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺤﺩﻫﺎ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﻁﻠﻊ ﻋﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺘﺭﻴﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺎﺩل ﻤﺠﻭﻉ ﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻤﺠﺘﻤﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻥ‪ .15‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﻁﺔ‬ ‫‪62‬‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ‬
‫ﺩﻭﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻝﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻝﺤﺠﻡ ﻜل ﻤﻥ‬ ‫‪effet de levier‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻴﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ ﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻋﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﻜﻭﺴﻴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ‪ ،‬ﻝﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺴﺭﻋﺎﻥ ﻤﺎ ﺘﺤﻭﻝﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﺨﻁﻴﺭﺓ ﻝﻌﺒﺕ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﻫﺎﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ ﻭﻤﺜﻠﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻘﺕ ﺇﻝﻴﻪ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﺍﻝﺜﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻝﻠﺴﻤﺎﺴﺭﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺘﺘﺴﺒﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻓﻼﺴﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻷﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ‪.16‬‬
‫ـ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﻭﻀﻌﻴﺔ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﺃﺼﻭﻝﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻠﺹ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﻁﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺃﺼﻭﻝﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻁﺎﻑ ﺘﺼﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺩﻑ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻫﻭ ﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ﺭﺒﺢ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺴﻊ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ‬
‫‪15‬‬
‫‪- Paul Jorion, Goldman, Morgan et le piège des CDS, http://contrinfo.info/article- php3? Id_article=2176, consulté le‬‬
‫‪11 juillet 2009.‬‬
‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪Paul‬‬ ‫‪Jorion,‬‬ ‫‪CDS :‬‬ ‫‪monstrueux‬‬ ‫‪contraire‬‬ ‫‪d’une‬‬ ‫‪assurance,‬‬ ‫‪http://contrinfo.info/article-‬‬
‫‪php3?id_article=2171,consulté le 11 juillet 2009.‬‬
‫‪16‬‬
‫ﻨﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺎ ﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺔ ﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ ﻻﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ ﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺽ ﺒﻘﻴﻤﺔ ‪ 10‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺴﺘﻔﻠﺱ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﺴﻴﻘﻭﻡ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺎﺌﺔ ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻹﻓﻼﺱ ‪%2‬ﺒﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺘﺄﻤﻴﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﻝﻴﻜﻥ ‪ 10‬ﻤﺘﺤﻤﻼ ﺒﺫﻝﻙ ﺩﻓﻊ ﻋﻼﻭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜل ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍل ﻭﻝﺘﻜﻥ‬
‫‪x = 10‬ﺒﻌﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ﻭﻝﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺜﻼ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻰ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺏ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻗﺩ ﺨﺴﺭ ﻋﻼﻭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻭﻗﺩﺭﻫﺎ ‪ 200000‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬
‫‪ 100 = 10‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ؛ ﻭﺍﻝﻔﺎﺭﻕ ﻭﻫﻭ ‪ 98‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﻴﺸﻜل ‪ 2000000x‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻭﺭﺒﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﺭﺍﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ‪10000000‬‬
‫ﺭﺒﺤﺎ ﺼﺎﻓﻴﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻴﺒﻴﻥ ﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻘل ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺩﺨﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺼﻐﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺤﺘﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻏﺎﻝﺒﻴﺔ ﻀﺤﺎﻴﺎﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ‬ ‫‪Enron‬‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻥ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﻠﺴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﺜﻠﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺇﻴﻨﺭﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺨﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺼﻐﺎﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻠﺹ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﻭﺍﺴﻊ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﺸﻬﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‬
‫ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻘﺩﺭ ﺒﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺘﻭﺯﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ﺒﻤﺜﺎﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻗﻨﺒﻠﺔ ﻤﻭﻗﻭﺘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻨﻔﺠﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺇﻝﺤﺎﻕ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻓﺎﻀﺤﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺤﻭﺯﺘﻬﻡ ﺩﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻡ ﻤﻨﻬﻡ‬
‫ﺒﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﺒﺘﻌﺒﻴﺭ ﺁﺨﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﺒﻤﺠﺭﺩ ﻤﺎ ﺘﺄﺨﺫ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﻠﻲ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻲ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻨﻀﻭﺏ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ .17‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻀﻭﺏ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺎ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫‪2008‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﺒﺘﺩﺍﺀ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﺘﻭﻅﻑ ﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻜﺈﺨﺭﺍﺝ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺴﻤﻭﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻭ‪/‬ﺃﻭ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻭﺴﻊ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﻴﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻝﻴﺸﻤل ﺩﻭل ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﻜﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‬
‫ﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﺤﺼﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺤﻠﻭل ﺘﻭﺍﺭﻴﺦ ﺍﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻗﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻥ ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻨﻤﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﻘﺩﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﻨﺎﺴﺏ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺍﺸﺘﻘﺕ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ـ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻝﻨﻘل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺤﻘﻘﻪ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻜﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺘﻡ‬
‫ﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺘﺨﺼﻴﺹ ﺃﻤﺜل ﻝﻼﺩﺨﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻫﻴﻜﻠﺔ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻋﻭﺍﻥ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻘل ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺨﻁﻭﺭﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻨﻪ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ‪ ،‬ﻴﺸﻜل ﺇﺤﺩﻯ ﺃﻫﻡ‬
‫ﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻨﻘل ﻋﺩﻭﻯ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﺒﺭ ﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﺘﻡ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺱ‬
‫ﺘﺘﻌﻤﻕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻭﺘﻨﺘﻘل ﻋﺩﻭﺍﻫﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ؛ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻝﻘﺩ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺘﻴﻭﻥ ﺒﺈﺨﺭﺍﺝ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺎﺘﻬﻡ ﻭﺘﺤﻤﻴل ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻝﻐﻴﺭﻫﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻭﺴﻊ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺤﻭﻝﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻓﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺇﻝﻰ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﻨﻘل ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻭﻯ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪.‬‬
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‫‪Ben Bernanke. B., Le canal du crédit et le rôle du système bancaire, www. Larevuedesidées.fr/De-la-crise-de-1929-a-‬‬
‫‪celle-de-htlm#nh1.‬‬
‫ـ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺃﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﺼل ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻨﺴﺘﺨﻠﺼﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺘﻨﺎ ﻝﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻤﻔﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜل ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻝﺴﻤﺎﺴﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻘﻭﻤﻭﻥ ﺒﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﺘﻤﻜﻨﻬﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﻝﻎ‬
‫‪.garantie‬‬ ‫ﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ‪dépôts de‬‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺸﻜل ﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬ ‫‪marge‬‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻀﻌﺎﻑ ﻤﻀﺎﻋﻔﺔ ﻝﻤﺎ ﻴﻘﺩﻤﻭﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻫﻭﺍﻤﺵ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﻝﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﺘﺸﻜﻴﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻓﻌﺎﺕ ﺘﺒﻠﻎ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻌﺽ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ‪ 200‬ﻀﻌﻑ‬
‫‪contraction foreign‬‬ ‫ﻭﺩﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﻀﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺭﻭﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﺠﻠﻴﺯﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﺴﻡ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻗﺎﻡ ﻤﻀﺎﺭﺏ ﺒﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻋﻘﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻴﻤﺘﺎﺯ ﺒﺄﺜﺭ ﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻝﺘﻜﻥ‬ ‫‪.Exchange‬‬
‫‪ ،200‬ﻓﺒﺈﻤﻜﺎﻨﻪ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻤﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 200000‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﻭﺩﻴﻌﺔ ﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﻫﺎ ‪ 1000‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻓﻘﻁ‪ .‬ﻝﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ ﺍﻝﻔﻜﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻨﻭﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺜﺎل ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ‪ :‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻝﺠﻨﻴﻪ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺍﺀ ‪ 1‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭ= ‪ 1.9750‬ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ ﺼﺎﺭ ‪ 1‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭ = ‪ 1.9850‬ﺠﻨﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﺒﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺼﺎﻝﺤﻪ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻴﻜﺴﺏ ‪ 100‬ﻨﻘﻁﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺫﻝﻙ ﻴﺭﺒﺢ ﻤﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 1000 = 10 x 100‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭ؛ ﻭﺒﺫﻝﻙ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻗﺩ ﻀﺎﻋﻑ‬
‫ﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻪ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻜﺴﺔ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﺴﻴﻔﻠﺱ‪.‬‬
‫ﺨﻼﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﻭل‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺃﺤﺩ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺼﺎل ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺼل ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ؛ ﻭﻫﻭ ﺒﺫﻝﻙ ﻴﺸﻜل ﻤﺼﺩﺭﺍ ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪conflits d’intérêt‬‬ ‫‪V‬ـ ﻨﺯﺍﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬ ‫‪délit d’initié‬‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻨﺯﺍﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﺒﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻋﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺠﻨﺢ ﻓﺸﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺘﺤﺼل ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﻴﺭﻴﻥ‪18‬؛ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﻨﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻷﺨﻼﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺎ ﺘﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ ﻭﻤﺩﻗﻘﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﻭﻜﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻘﻴﻁ؛ ﻭﻜﻠﻬﺎ ﺘﻠﺤﻕ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﺭ ﺒﺎﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﻠﻌﺏ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ ﻭﻤﺩﻗﻘﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺒﻴﻭﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻘﻴﻁ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﻫﺎﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺼﻨﻊ ﺴﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻜﻠﻔﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻅﻔﺔ ﻝﻬﻡ ﺒﺎﻝﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﻭﻅﺎﺌﻔﻬﻡ‪ ..‬ﻗﺒل ﺃﻥ ﻨﺩﺨل ﻓﻲ ﺼﻠﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬
‫ﻝﻨﺘﺴﺎﺀل ﻋﻥ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺼﺤﺔ ﻭﺘﻨﻘﻴﻁ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﺩﻗﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺠﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻅﻔﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺤﻠل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻫﻲ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺃﻭ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻝﻠﻤﺤﻠل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﻤﻴﺯﺓ ﻤﻊ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﻴﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﺒﻌﺩﺓ ﺇﻁﻼﻗﺎ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺘﺭﺒﻁﻪ ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﻗﺩﻴﻤﺔ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﺃﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺭﺍﺤﺎ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺘﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻤﻐﻔﻼ ﻋﻤﺩﺍ ﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ‬
‫‪conflits‬‬ ‫ﻭﻤﺨﺎﻝﻔﺎﺕ ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺼﻁﻠﺢ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺒﻨﺯﺍﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ‬
‫‪ .d’intérêts‬ﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻴﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺼﻐﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻫﻡ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺌﻤﺎ ﻀﺤﺎﻴﺎ ﺍﻝﻔﻀﺎﺌﺢ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺨﻼﺼﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻨﺎ ﻝﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﻀﺘﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺒﺘﻜﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﻡ ﺘﺤﻭﻴﻠﻪ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﺒﻌﺩﻤﺎ ﺃﻭﺠﺩﺕ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﺎ ﻝﻠﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻨﺨﻠﺹ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﺜﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻝﺼﺤﺔ ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺘﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪18‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2006‬ﻜﺸﻔﺕ ﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻴﺭﺒﺎﺹ ﺒﺘﺴﺭﻴﺏ ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻫﺎﻤﺔ ﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬
‫ﻋﺎﺌﻠﺘﻪ ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﻡ ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﺠﻨﻴﺒﻬﻡ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻤﺤﺩﻗﺔ ﺴﺘﻨﺠﻡ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺨﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺠل ﻓﻲ ﺘﺴﻠﻴﻡ ﻁﺎﺌﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫‪A‬ﻤﻥ ‪380‬‬
‫‪ 1‬ـ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻝﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل‬
‫ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻭﻤﺎ ﻨﺠﻡ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ ﻭﻝﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻗﺩ ﺴﻤﺢ‬
‫ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﻝﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺒﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻤﻘﺒﻭﻝﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺴﻤﺢ ﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺩﻭل‬
‫ﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﻋﺩﺓ ﺒﺎﻻﻨﻁﻼﻕ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺎﻕ ﺒﺎﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻁﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻭ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺼﻭل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﻝﻸﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺇﺫ ﻋﺭﻓﺕ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺍ‬
‫ﻤﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻓﺭﺽ ﻤﻨﻁﻕ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﺢ ﺍﻝﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻭﻝﻬﺎ؛ ﻭﻫﻭ ﺃﻤﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻝﻠﻐﺎﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 2‬ـ ﺇﻥ ﺘﺤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻀﺨﻡ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﻘﺩﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺠﻌﻠﻬﺎ ﺘﻜﺘﺴﺏ ﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺫﺍﺘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﻷﺼﺤﺎﺒﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻋﺎﺌﺩ ﺘﻔﻭﻕ ﺒﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻨﻅﻴﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻜﺭﺱ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﺭﻁ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل‪.‬‬
‫‪ 3‬ـ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺃﺩﻯ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ ﺘﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺯﻥ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻜﻜل‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺘﻡ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺤﺴﻭﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺼﺘﻪ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺘﺴﺒﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻭﻝﺩ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻨﻅﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺨﻁﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻜﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 4‬ـ ﺇﻥ ﺭﺍﺒﻊ ﻭﺃﻫﻡ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺠﺫﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻋﺭﻓﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺘﻨﻁﻭﻱ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻨﻅﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﺜﻠﻬﺎ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻋﺭﻓﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‪:‬‬
‫‪1 - Michel Rocard,la crise actuelle est née en 1971, interview, le temps, jeudi 23 octobre 2008.‬‬
‫‪2 - Marie Paule Virad, Faut-il avoir peur du marché, problèmes économiques,n°2495, 20 novembre‬‬
‫‪1996.‬‬
‫‪3 - Paul Jorion, comprendre la crise, http://contreinfo.info/article.php3,d_article=2216, consulté le‬‬
‫‪15 mai 2009.‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪S.‬‬ ‫‪Johnson,‬‬ ‫‪Comment‬‬ ‫‪la‬‬ ‫‪finance‬‬ ‫‪a‬‬ ‫‪conquis‬‬ ‫‪et‬‬ ‫‪ruiner‬‬ ‫‪l’Amérique,‬‬
‫‪http://contreinfo.info/article.php3?d_article=2683, consulté le 25/6/2009.‬‬
5 – Gibert Joseph, L’appel des économistes pour sortir de la pensée unique, le piège de la finance
mondiale, édition la découverte, 2000.
consulté le 7 Jorion, Comprendre la crise, http://contrinfo.info/article-php3?id_article =2216, 6 - Pau
décembre 2008.
7 - Journal Le Monde. Supplément économique, mardi 23 mai 2006.
8 - Paul krugman, le symptôme de la déflation salariale, http://contrinfo.info/article-
php3?id_article=2699,consulté, le 20 mai 2009.
9 - Thomas Pelly, Les risques de la liquidation, http://contreinfo.info/article.php3?article=2117,
consulté le 20 mai 2009.
10 - Paul Jorion, Goldman, Morgan et le piège des CDS, http://contrinfo.info/article- php3?
Id_article=2176, consulté le 11 juillet 2009.
11 - Paul Jorion, CDS : monstrueux contraire d’une assurance, http://contrinfo.info/article-
php3?id_article=2171,consulté le 11 juillet 2009.
Ben Bernanke. B., Le canal du crédit et le rôle du système bancaire, www. Larevuedesidées.fr/De-la-
crise-de-1929-a-celle-de-htlm#nh1.
2008 ‫ﻤﻼﻤﺢ ﻭﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬
*
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻜﺘﻭﺭ ﻴﻭﺴﻑ ﺃﺒﻭﻓﺎﺭﺓ‬
:Abstract ‫ﻤﻠﺨﺹ‬
‫ ﻫﻲ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺤﺩﺜﺕ ﺒﻔﻌل ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﺘﺭﺍﻜﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺁﺨﺭﻫﺎ‬2008 ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ‬
‫ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺕ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻠﻑ ﻋﻥ ﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﻓﻌﺎﺕ‬،‫ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ‬
‫ ﻭﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺕ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺤﺒﺱ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺠﺩﺍ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ‬،‫ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺠﺩﺍ‬
.(\]^_`a) ،O‫ﺡ‬QLRST‫س ا‬WXT‫ ا‬OYJHZ ،FGHIJ ‫ذ‬HLM‫* أ‬

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‫ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﻓﻌﺎﺕ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺭ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺴﻭﻕ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻗﺩ ﺩﺨﻠﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻋﺯﺯﺕ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﻭﻗﻭﺓ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ 2008‬ﻭﻋﻤﻘﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺭﺍﻙ ﻝﺩﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ ﻭﻝﺩﻯ ﺼﻨﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺠﺫﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺃﻤﺭ ﺼﻌﺏ ﺠﺩﺍ ﻭﻗﺩ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺴﺘﺤﻴﻼ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﺒﻨﻔﺱ ﺃﺴﺱ‬
‫ﻭﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩﺕ ﺩﻋﻭﺍﺕ ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺓ ﺘﺅﻜﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺸﺎﻤﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻝﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﺘﺼﻔﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ‪ 2008‬ﺒﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻼﻤﺢ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ‪ :‬ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻝﺴﻬﻠﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﺩﻴﺌﺔ ‪) Bad Loans‬ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﻨﻅﻡ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺸﺭﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻀﻌﻴﻔﺔ ﻭﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺸﺭﺍﻑ ﻭﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻀﻌﻴﻔﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻘﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ ،‬ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻁﺎﻝﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﻫﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺸﺒﺢ ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻝﺤﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﺭ ﺒﺎﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﺒﻁﺒﻘﺎﺘﻬﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻬﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻋﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺩﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﺕ ﻤﺩﻴﺭﻱ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺭﺍﺌﺩﺓ )ﻴﺘﻘﺎﻀﻭﻥ ﺃﺠﻭﺭﺍ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﺠﺩﺍ( ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺫﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺃﻨﺫﺭﺕ ﺒﺎﻷﺨﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻀﺭﺒﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺒﻭﻗﻑ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻭﻗﻭﻉ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺭﺴﻴﺦ ﻭﺘﻌﻤﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺒﻌﺩ ﻭﻗﻭﻋﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻫﻡ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل‪ :‬ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺘﺭﺍﻜﻤﺔ ﻭﺘﻌﺎﻅﻡ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ )ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻀﺨﻡ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻀﺒﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ )ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻝﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﻋﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﺠﺸﻊ ‪ Greed‬ﺍﻝﺫﻱ‬
‫ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻫﻭ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﺜﻘﺎﻓﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺃﺨﻼﻗﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻝﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺸﺎﺌﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺩ‪‬ﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﻔﺴﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ‪ :‬ﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬
‫ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺒﻘﺎﺌﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ )ﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻁﻠﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻜﺸﻔﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺨﻠل ﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ )ﺒﻌﺩ ﺃﻥ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺸﻔﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ ﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺸﻔﺕ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺼﺎﺭﺕ ﺘﻠﻌﺏ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﻜﺒﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻴﻥ ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻐﻴﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﻵﻝﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻋﻤﺎل ﻭﺃﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﻨﻔﺼﺎل ﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪ .‬ﻭﺃﺩﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﻜﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﻓﻠﺴﻔﺔ ﻤﻨﻅﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﻌﺩﻡ ﺠﻭﺍﺯ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﺒﺘﺩﺨﻠﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﺃﺩﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ )ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻔﺠﺭﺕ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻭﺍﻀﺤﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ (2008‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﻜﺎﺭﺜﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺩﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻝﻴﺱ ﻝﻠﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻘﻁ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﻀﺭﺒﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺘﻤﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺸﺩﺓ ﻫﻭل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻁﻠﻕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺯﻝﺯﺍل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻤﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺘﺴﻭﻨﺎﻤﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺼﺩﻤﺔ )ﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻨﺩﻻﻉ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ( ﻫﻭ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺘﻔﺠﺭﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺝ ﺯﻫﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﺸﺒﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﻁﻠﻘﺔ ﻝﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﻜﺭﻱ ﻝﺘﻤﻴ‪‬ﺯ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻭﻗﺩﺭﺘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺼﻤﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﺍﻝﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻤﻥ ﻴﺭﻯ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺠﺎﺀﺕ ﻝﺘﺒﺭﻫﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺍ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻗﻴل ﻋﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻝﻡ ﻴﻜﻥ ﺼﺤﻴﺤﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻗﺩ ﺃﺨﻔﻕ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺤﺎﻭل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻼﻤﺢ ﻭﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2008‬ﻭﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻷﻭل‪ :‬ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ‪Global Financial Crisis 2008‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪:2008‬‬
‫ﻫﻲ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺤﺩﺜﺕ ﺒﻔﻌل ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﺘﺭﺍﻜﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺁﺨﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺼﻴﻑ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2007‬ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺕ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻠﻑ ﻋﻥ ﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﻓﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫‪ Mortgage Defaults‬ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺠﺩﺍ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺕ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺠﺩﺍ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺤﺒﺱ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ‬
‫‪ Foreclosures‬ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﻓﻌﺎﺕ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻝﻤﺴﺎﻜﻨﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺭ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺴﻭﻕ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻗﺩ ﺩﺨﻠﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻀﻭﺀ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻠﻑ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﻭﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺤﺒﺱ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺍﺘﺠﻬﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻜﻥ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬
‫ﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻭﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺤﺎﺩ‪‬ﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﺩﻯ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺠﺩﺍ )ﺘﺭﻴﻠﻴﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭﺍﺕ( ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺓ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺴﺎﻜﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ‪Interbank Credit Market‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻝﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ‪ Collapse‬ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺩﺕ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻁﺎﻝﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل ﻓﻲ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﻜﺴﺎﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺃﺤﺩ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻘﻑ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺍﻝﻜﺎﻓﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﻋل ﺒﻭﻗﻭﻉ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺎﺭﺜﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻫﻭ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻗﺩ ﺠﺎﺀﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻋﻘﺎﺏ ﺴﺒﻊ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺘﻔﻊ )ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ(‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻥ ﻜﺎﻨﻭﺍ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﻭﺍ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺒﺩﺃ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪ Slowdown‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﻤﻼﻤﺢ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ‪:2008‬‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﻜﻴﺏ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻴﻭﻱ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺸﺭﻴﺤﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺒﺴﻁﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺄﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻋﺭﺽ ﻷﻫﻡ ﻤﻼﻤﺢ ﻭﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﻜﻴﺏ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻴﻭﻱ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﻭﺴﻌﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Partnoy,2009‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﺒﻌﺩ ﻭﻗﻭﻉ ﻓﻘﺎﻋﺔ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﻴﺏ ‪ Dotcom Bubble‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﻭﻗﻭﻉ ﻫﺠﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺩﻱ ﻋﺸﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ )ﺃﻴﻠﻭل( ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2001‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬ ‫‪،2000‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻗﺩ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺘﺴﻭﺩﻫﺎ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﻭﺴﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺤﺎﻓﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻘﺎﺀ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﺒﻨﺠﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﺜﺎل ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﺩﺭﺍﻝﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻲ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ 27‬ﻤﺭﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻋﻭﺍﻡ ‪.2003-2001‬‬
‫• ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺇﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺴﻬﻠﺔ ‪:Easy Credit‬‬
‫ﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‪ (Nan-Kuang, and Hung-Jen,2008‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺤﻔﻴﺯ‬
‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻭﻨﻤﻭ ﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل )ﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﺩﻭل ﺃﺨﺭﻯ( ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ ﻝﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺯﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺭﺩﻴﺌﺔ ‪) Bad Loans‬ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ(‪:‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﻭﺕ ﻗﺩ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ‪ ،‬ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ‪ .Mortgage Lending‬ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Richard,2009‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻜﺜﺭﺕ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻤﺘﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﺩﺓ )ﺍﻷﻗل ﺠﻭﺩﺓ( ‪ ،Subprime Mortgage‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪1.3‬‬
‫ﺘﺭﻴﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻻ ﻴﻭﻓﺭ ﺍﻝﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻜﻔل ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺒﺈﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺩﻓﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻨﻅﻡ ﻭﺘﺸﺭﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻀﻌﻴﻔﺔ ‪ Weak Regulations‬ﻭﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺇﺸﺭﺍﻑ ﻭﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻀﻌﻴﻔﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻘﺩﺓ ‪:Weak Supervision‬‬
‫ﻴﺭﻯ )‪ (Xiong & Liu 2009‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻝﻘﺕ ﺍﻝﻀﻭﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﺼﻭﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ‪ Risk-Management Tools‬ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺭﻫﻨﺕ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﻘﻭﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻝﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﻝﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Turbide, Laurin, Lapierre, and Morissette,2008‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﻜﺎﻻﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﻭﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺃﺨﻔﻘﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻭﻴﻡ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﻭﻴﻡ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﻘﻴﻡ ﻻ ﺘﻌﺒ‪‬ﺭ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻤﺕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻭﻴﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﻀﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺩﻭﻥ ﻤﺭﺍﻋﺎﺓ ﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺼﻤﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻝﻬﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺘﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪:‬‬
‫ﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‪ (Tsuo, 2009‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ ‪ ،Hoarding of cash‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﺎ ‪‬ﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ‪ ،Consumption Declines‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ )ﺃﻤﻴﺭﻜﺎ ﻭﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﻓﺭﻨﺴﺎ ﻭﺃﻝﻤﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻴﻁﺎﻝﻴﺎ ﻭﻜﻨﺩﺍ ﻭﺍﻝﻴﺎﺒﺎﻥ(‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺩﻓﻌﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ )ﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻝﺤﻘﺕ ﺒﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﻝﻤﺕ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ( ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺴﺤﺏ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ )ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ( ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻝﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻼﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻜﺎﺭﺜﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻬﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻷﺼﻠﻴﺔ )ﺍﻷﻡ( ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪:‬‬
‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Pounder,2009‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺇﻀﻌﺎﻑ ﻭﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﻭﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ )ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ(‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺴﺒﺒﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Markowitz,2009‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﺄﺜﺭﺕ ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺸﺎﺒﻙ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺒﻁﺎﻝﺔ ﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺓ‪:‬‬
‫ﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‪ (Meltzer,2009‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻌﻤﻴﻕ ﻭﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﻋﻤﻴﻘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻅﺭﻭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻁﺎﻝﺔ ‪ Unemployment‬ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﺴﺘﻐﻨﺎﺀ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﻋﻥ ﻤﻼﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻭﺘﺴﺭﻴﺤﻬﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺠﻡ‬
‫ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻝﻡ ﺘﻘﺘﺼﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻁﺎﻝﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﺍﻤﺘﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ ﻭﺇﻝﻰ ﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﺜﺎل ﻓﺈﻥ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ 20‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺸﺨﺹ ﻓﻘﺩﻭﺍ ﻭﻅﺎﺌﻔﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺼﻴﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺃﻗل ﻤﻥ ﻋﺎﻤﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﻭﻗﻭﻉ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻋﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺼﻴﻥ )ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ ‪.(Export Sector‬‬
‫• ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‪:‬‬
‫ﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‪ (Dowd,2009‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﺴﺒﺒﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻤﻌﺩ‪‬ل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ %50‬ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ‬
‫‪ ،2008‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ %60‬ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻝﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل )ﻤﺜل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺼﻴﻥ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ %30‬ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻝﺩﻭل ﺃﺨﺭﻯ )ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﺒﻌﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻐﻨﻴﺔ(‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‪ (Turbide, Laurin, Lapierre, and Morissette (2008‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻋﺒﺔ‬

‫ﻭﺍﻝﻜﺎﺭﺜﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻨﺠﻤﺕ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻫﺒﻭﻁ ﺤﺎ ‪‬ﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻀﻁﺭﺍﺏ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ‪Turmoil‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻭﻓﺎﺀ ﺒﺎﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ )ﺍﻹﻴﻔﺎﺌﻴﺔ ‪ (Solvency‬ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺘﻬﺎﻭﻱ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻤﺘﻠﻜﻪ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺃﻤﻭﺍل ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻝﻬﺒﻭﻁ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﺎ ‪‬ﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﺩﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺤﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﻭﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻼﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻭﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺼﻌﻭﺒﺔ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼل ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﻠﻭل ﻓﺎﻋﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﺸﺎﺭ )‪ (James, 2009‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﻤﻘﺕ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺸﻬﺭ ﺘﺸﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻭل‬
‫‪ 2008‬ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ 25‬ﺘﺭﻴﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻡ ﻴﻜﻥ ﺃﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺜﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﺒﻔﻌل ﻫﻜﺫﺍ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺸﺒﺢ ﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﻋﻅﻴﻡ‪:‬‬
‫ﻴﺭﻯ )‪ (Uludag, and Louis, 2008‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻝﺤﻘﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﺜﺭﻭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﺴﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻨﻜﻭﺹ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻭﻭل ﺴﺘﺭﻴﺕ ‪Elite Wall Street Companies‬‬
‫ﻗﺩ ﺩﻓﻌﺕ ﻭﺤﺜﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻘﻴﻥ ‪ Commentators‬ﻓﻲ ﻤﺤﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺫﺍﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻠﻔﺯﻴﻭﻥ‬
‫)ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺼﺤﻑ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺠﻼﺕ( ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺤﺩﻴﺙ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺭﻋﺒﺔ ﻭﻤﺨﻴﻔﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺸﺒﺢ ﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﻋﻅﻴﻡ ﺴﻴﻀﺭﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺇﻝﺤﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﺭ ﺒﺎﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻀﺢ )‪ (Sinnakkannu, and Nassir,2008‬ﻭ )‪ (Hawes, 2009‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﺩﺕ‬
‫ﺇﻝﻰ ﺇﻝﺤﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﺭ ﺒﺎﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﺭ ﻭﻗﻊ ﺒﺄﺸﻜﺎل ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺃﻨﻤﺎﻁ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﻭل ﺃﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻏﻠﺏ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻏﻨﻴﺎﺀ ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﺍﻋﺘﺎﺩﻭﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻤﺘﻼﻙ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺍﻷﻀﺭﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺨل‬
‫‪ Income‬ﻫﺅﻻﺀ ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺜﺭﻭﺍﺘﻬﻡ ‪ .Wealth‬ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‬
‫ﺁﺨﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺁﺜﺎﺭﺍ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﺤﻘﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺎﺱ ﺍﻝﻔﻘﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﻻ ﻴﻤﻠﻜﻭﻥ ﺃﻴﺔ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﺤﻘﺕ ﺒﻬﻡ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ‪.Indirect Impact‬‬
‫• ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‪ (Xiong, and Liu,2009‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺘﺴﺒﺒﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﻭﻀﻊ ﻗﻴﻭﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﻘﺭﺍﺀ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻬﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻋﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ‪:Financial Panic‬‬
‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Musil,2009‬ﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺒﻁ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺫﻋﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺭ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺴﺭﻴﻌﺔ ﺠﺩﺍ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺴﺒﺏ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻤﺘﻨﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺴﻠﻴﻑ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺒﺩﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻜﺈﻋﺼﺎﺭ ﻤﺎﻝﻲ ‪ Financial Hurricane‬ﻴﻀﺭﺏ ﻭﻴﺴﺤﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ )ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ(‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺫﻝﻙ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺠﻬﻭﺍ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻹﻨﺫﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺫﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻷﺨﺫ ﻜل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻌﺩﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻝﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺎﺭﺜﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻨﺎل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Nguyen,2008‬ﻭ)‪ (Nguyen,2008‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻗﺩ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﻋﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺃﺭﺠﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻴﺎﺒﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺘﻔﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺭﻨﹼﺢ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﺨﻭل ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻀﺤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ .2008‬ﻭﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‪ (Taylor,2009‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺸﻠل ﻝﻠﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻷﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﻭل ﺴﺘﺭﻴﺕ ‪ Wall Street‬ﺒﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﺕ ﻤﺩﻴﺭﻱ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺭﺍﺌﺩﺓ )ﻴﺘﻘﺎﻀﻭﻥ ﺃﺠﻭﺭﺍ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﺠﺩﺍ( ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺫﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺃﻨﺫﺭﺕ ﺒﺎﻷﺨﻁﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻀﺭﺒﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪:‬‬
‫ﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‪ (Shore, and Manwani, 2009‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺸﺠﻌﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﻴﻥ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ )ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ( ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻻﻝﺘﻔﺎﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺫﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﺫﺭ ﺒﺄﺨﻁﺎﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﺒﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻫﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل‪ :‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻴﺸﻬﺩ ﻨﻤﻭﺍ ﻤﺸﺠﻌﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻫﺅﻻﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﺭﻭﻥ ﻴﺘﻘﺎﻀﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻭﻴﺅﻜﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺄﻋﻤﺎﻝﻬﻡ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻴﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻁﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻴﻐﻀﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﺠﻌﻠﺘﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ‬
‫)‪ (Simkovic,2009‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﻝﻎ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﻫﻅﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺘﺩﻓﻊ ﻝﻠﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﺒ‪‬ﺭ‬
‫ﻋﻥ ﺨﻠل ﺨﻁﻴﺭ ﻭﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﺱ ﺍﻝﺤﻭﻜﻤﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﺒﺘﻌﺎﺩ ﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﻋﻥ ﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﺍﻝﺤﻭﻜﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﻴﺩﺓ )ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﺸﻴﺩ‬
‫ﻝﻠﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ( ‪ Good Corporate Governance‬ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﺴﺘﺭﻴﺕ‬
‫‪ Wall Street‬ﻭﻀﻌﺕ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻠﻡ ﻝﻸﺠﻭﺭ)ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻝﻠﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ(‪ ،‬ﻤﻊ ﺭﺒﻁ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻡ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺤﻘﻘﻪ ﻫﺅﻻﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﺭﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺘﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺩﻓﻊ ﻫﺅﻻﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﻌﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺜﻴﺙ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬
‫ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﺒﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻗﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻘﻭﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﻭﻗﻑ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ‪:‬‬
‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Nan-Kuang and Wang,2008‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﺘﺠﻬﺕ ‪-‬ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩ‬

‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ -‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺒﺫل ﻜل ﺍﻝﺠﻬﻭﺩ ﻭﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ ﻜل ﺍﻹﻤﻜﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺩﻋﻡ ﻭﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺠﻌﻠﻬﺎ ﺘﺘﺨﺫ ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﻭﻗﻑ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ‪ Stop Lending‬ﻭﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻤﺎ ﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﺎﻝﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ‪ ،Operational Costs‬ﻭﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﺘﺠﻬﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﺀ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺴﺭﻴﺢ ﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺎﻤﻠﻴﻬﺎ ‪.Laying off Workers‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻝﺜﺎ‪ :‬ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ‪Causes of Global Financial Crisis‬‬
‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺜﻭﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﺼﻭﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺒﺎ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻭﻗﻭﻉ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻔﺠﺭﺕ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،2008‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ‬
‫ﻤﺎ ﻴﺄﺘﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺘﺭﺍﻜﻤﺔ ﻭﺘﻌﺎﻅﻡ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ )ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ(‪ :‬ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻝﻠﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺒﻠﻎ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ 9‬ﺘﺭﻴﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻏﻠﺏ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺩﻴﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻋﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ )ﺤﻴﺙ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ 6.6‬ﺘﺭﻴﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ(‪ .‬ﻭﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻌﺎﻅﻡ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻭﺼل ﺤﺠﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪18.4‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‪(Herrmann, , Pornupatham, and Vichitsarawong 2008‬‬ ‫ﺘﺭﻴﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻡ ﻤﻨﺤﻬﺎ ﺒﺭﻫﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﻋﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ )ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ( ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻤﻨﺤﺕ ﺒﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﺸﺠﻌﺕ‬
‫ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻤﻊ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻭﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻭﻤﺸﺠﻌﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺤﺠﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺤﺼل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺇﻤﺎ ﻝﻐﺭﺽ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﻥ ﺃﻭ ﻝﻐﺭﺽ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺃﻭ ﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺫﻝﻙ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺭﻯ )‪ (Uludag, 2008‬ﺃﻨﻪ ﺤﺘﻰ ﺘﺴﺘﻔﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻓﻘﺩ‬
‫ﺍﺘﺠﻬﺕ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺴﻌﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻨﻭﺤﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﺩﺍﻭﻝﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ )ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻨﻴﺩ( ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺒﻴﻊ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﺍﺸﺘﺭﻭﺍ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺒﺭﻫﻨﻬﺎ ﻝﺩﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻝﻠﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻭﻨﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻜﺭﺭﺕ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ‪ -‬ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ‪ -‬ﻝﻠﺤﺼﻭل ﺒﻀﻤﺎﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﺩﺕ‬
‫ﺇﻝﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﺠﻭﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻀﻭﺀ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﻝﺩﻯ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺘﺤﻤل ﺍﻝﺯﺒﻭﻥ )ﺤﺎﻤل ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺩ( ﺭﺴﻭﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻝﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﺼﺎﺤﺏ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭ‬
‫)ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺕ ﻤﺜﻼ(‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Rizzi, 2008‬ﺍﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻨﺫ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2007‬ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﻗل ﻤﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺩﺍﻭﻝﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺒﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻝﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻏﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻗﺎﺩﺭﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺭﺍﻜﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻝﻭ ﺍﻀﻁﺭﻭﺍ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺒﻴﻊ ﻋﻘﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻫﻭﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺇﻝﺤﺎﻕ ﺃﻀﺭﺍﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻓﺎﺩﺤﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺌﻨﺔ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺯﺒﺎﺌﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻨﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﻴﻭﻨﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺤﺎ ‪‬ﺩ ﻭﻫﺒﻭﻁ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻝﻠﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺌﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻡ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻥ ﻋﻥ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Liu, and Rizzi,2008‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ ﺸﻬﺩﺕ ﺍﺯﺩﻫﺎﺭﺍ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺍ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻷﻋﻭﺍﻡ ‪ ،2006-2001‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺯﺩﻫﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺸﺠﻌﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺴﺩﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﻓﻌﻬﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺒﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ )ﻜﺴﺏ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ(‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‪ (Mun, 2008‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﺘﻨﺎﻤﺕ ﻭﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺒﺎﻝﻎ‬
‫ﻀﺨﻤﺔ ﺠﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ‬
‫‪ 2006‬ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ 700‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺠﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺨﺹ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺽ ﻴﻘﻀﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻰ ﻓﻲ ﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﻓﻭﺍﺌﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺽ ﻗﺒل ﺃﻥ ﻴﺒﺩﺃ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺴﺩﻴﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺽ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺽ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﺩﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺘﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﻭﺍ ﻋﺎﺠﺯﻴﻥ ﻋﻥ ﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺍﺨﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2006‬ﻭﺒﺩﺍﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ‬
‫‪ 2007‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺕ ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻓﻊ ﻭﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺭﻀﻴﻥ )ﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻫﻭﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻋﺎﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻘﻀﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺭﻀﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ‬
‫ﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺜﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻝﻡ ﻴﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺴﺩﺍﺩﻫﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ 100‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺎﺕ ‪ 2007‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺯﺍﺩ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ )ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻜﻥ( ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﻤﻌﺭﻭﻀﺔ ﻝﻠﺒﻴﻊ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ ،%75‬ﻭﺒﻠﻎ ﻋﺩﺩ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ )ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻜﻥ( ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ 2.2‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﻋﻘﺎﺭ )ﻤﺴﻜﻥ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ﻴﺸﻜل ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ %1‬ﻤﻥ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻜﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻅل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻌﺕ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل )ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺃﻡ ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺭﺒﻁ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﻗﺎﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ ﻭﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻊ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻨﺎﻤﺕ ﻭﺘﻁﻭﺭﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻭﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺃﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﺭﺍﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺼﺎﺭﺕ ﺘﺩﻋﻰ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪.2008‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‪ :‬ﻴﺭﻯ )‪ (Lim, 2008‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺴﻭﺀ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻭﻯ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻭﻓﺎﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﺩﻓﻌﺕ ﺒﺎﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺘﺠﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺩﻋﻭﻥ ﺒﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺴﺤﺏ ﻭﺩﺍﺌﻌﻬﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺩﻯ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺤﺎﺩ‪‬ﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻡ ﺘﻨﺠﺢ ﺘﺩﺨﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‪ (Shore, and Manwani, 2009‬ﺃﻥ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ‪ Bankruptcy‬ﻤﺼﺭﻑ "ﻝﻴﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﺭﺫﺭﺯ" ﻗﺩ ﺃﺩﻯ‬
‫ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻌﻤﻴﻕ ﺤﺩ‪‬ﺓ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺎﻥ ﺇﻓﻼﺴﻪ ﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻝﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺠﻌل ﺜﻘﺘﻬﻡ ﺘﻬﺘﺯ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﻨﻅﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﻜﺎﻨﻭﺍ ﻴﻌﺘﻘﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ ﻝﻥ ﺘﺴﻤﺢ ﺒﺈﻓﻼﺱ ﻤﺼﺭﻑ ﻤﻬﻡ‬
‫ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻑ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ )ﻋﺩﻡ ﺇﻨﻘﺎﺫ ﻤﺼﺭﻑ ﻝﻴﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﺭﺫﺭﺯ( ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺭﺴﺨﺕ ﻭﻋﻤﻘﺕ ﺤﺩ‪‬ﺓ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺠﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺼﺭﻑ "ﻝﻴﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺒﺭﺫﺭﺯ" ﻗﺩ ﺃﻓﻠﺱ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻌﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺴﻬﻤﻪ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ %90‬ﻭﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭﻩ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ﺴﺒﻌﺔ ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻀﺨﻡ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻀﺒﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﻝﻘﺩ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻝﻠﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﺍﻝﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻨﻭﻋﺔ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺩﺍﻭﻝﺔ ﻭﺘﺭﺴﻴﺦ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Markowitz, 2009‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻤﻊ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻨﻭﻋﺔ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺠﻭﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻴﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﺘﺠﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﻌﻴﺩﺍ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻝﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺒ‪‬ﺭ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻴﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻤﺎﺩﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺃﺼﻭل ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺒﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﻭﻋﺏﺀ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻴﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‪ (Horton, 2009‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﺘﺴﺎﻉ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺠﺩﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻨﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺯﺍﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺭﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺘﺘﻌﻠﻕ‬
‫ﺒﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﻫﺅﻻﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻨﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺴﺎﻋﺩﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻫﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ )‪ (Pounder, 2009‬ﻭ)‪:(Richard, 2009‬‬
‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﺍﻝﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﻋﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺝ‪ -‬ﺍﻝﺠﺸﻊ ‪ Greed‬ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ )ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ(‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺸﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺴﻴﻁﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺠﺸﻊ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‪:‬‬
‫• ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﺍﻝﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺴﺏ ﻝﻠﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -5‬ﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﺜﻘﺎﻓﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺃﺨﻼﻗﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺠﻬﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻫﻭ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻻ ﻴﻭﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺨﻼﻗﻲ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻴﺅﻤﻥ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﻫﻲ ﺴﺎﺤﺔ ﻝﻠﺼﺭﺍﻉ‬
‫ﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺭﻴ‪‬ﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻻ ﺘﺤﻜﻤﻬﺎ ﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﻭﺍﻀﺤﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻗﻴﻭﺩ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺃﻓﻕ ﻤﺘﻁﻭﺭ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﺃﻥ ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯﻫﺎ ﻴﻨﺼ ‪‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻘﻭﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺒﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻗﻭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻌﺯﺯ ﻫﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﻯ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻀﻌﻴﻑ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Park, and Lee, 2009‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺎﻓﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺨﻼﻗﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺩﻓﻌﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﻜﺽ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺯﻴﻴﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻹﻋﻁﺎﺀ ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺘﺠﻤﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺒﻌﻴﺩﺍ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -6‬ﺍﻝﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻝﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻹﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻔﺎﻋل ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻠﻌﺒﻪ ﻭﺘﻀﻁﻠﻊ ﺒﻪ ﻭﺴﺎﺌل‬
‫ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﻫﻭ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻭﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻤﻨﻅﻭﻤﺔ ﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻜﻔل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻤﺎ ﻻ ﻴﻌﺯﺯ ﺃﻴﺔ ﺜﻘﺎﻓﺔ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺴﻠﻭﻜﻴﺎﺕ ﺨﺎﻁﺌﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺭﻯ )‪ (Pauly, 2008‬ﺃﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺘﺸﺎﺒﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺭﻜﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺇﺒﺭﺍﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﺒﺊ ﻭﺘﻨﺫﺭ ﺒﺄﺯﻤﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻗﺎﺩﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﺭﻜﺯﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺠﻤﻴل ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻝﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﻝﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻔﺠﺭﺕ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪.2008‬‬
‫‪ -7‬ﺍﻝﺸﺎﺌﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﺸﺎﺌﻌﺔ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻗﻭﺍل ﻭﺭﻭﺍﻴﺎﺕ ﻴﺠﺭﻱ ﺘﻨﺎﻗﻠﻬﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺱ ﺤﻭل ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻭﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺼﺩﻗﻬﺎ ﻭﺼﺤﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﺘﺴﺘﻨﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻤﻭﺜﻭﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﺘﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺎﺌﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺠﺯﺀﺍ ﺼﻐﻴﺭﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻓﺨﺎ ﻴﻘﻊ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻝﺒﻌﺽ ﻹﺴﻘﺎﻁﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺠﺯﺍﺀ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺎﺌﻌﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬
‫)‪ (Trussel, and Rose, 2009‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺎﺌﻌﺔ ﺘﻭﺼﻑ ﺒﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﺘﺘﻀﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﺸﺎﺌﻌﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ )ﻤﺜل ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺫﻝﻙ(‪.‬‬
‫‪ -8‬ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺩ‪‬ﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‪ :‬ﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Cowen, 2009‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪2007‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2008‬ﺸﻬﺩﺕ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺍ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻨﺎﻤﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -9‬ﺍﻝﻔﺴﺎﺩ‪ :‬ﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‪ (Partnoy, 2009‬ﻭ)‪ (Markowitz, 2009‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺤﺩ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻭﻗﻔﺕ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﻔﺴﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻔﺴﺎﺩ ﻭﻗﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻫﻭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻝﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻝﻠﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻝﻜﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺴﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬
‫ﺘﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻊ ﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﻭﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻀﺤﺔ ﻜﺄﺤﺩ ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻔﺠﺭﺕ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪.2008‬‬
‫‪ -10‬ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺍﻨﺘﻬﺠﻬﺎ ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﺍﺭ ﻋﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺩﻭل ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺓ )ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ ﻭﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ(‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺭﻯ )‪ (Taylor,2009‬ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻗﺩ ﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺠﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ .2008‬ﻭﺍﻝﻐﺭﻴﺏ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺃﻨﻪ ﺭﻏﻡ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻝﻌﺒﺘﻪ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺼﺩﺭﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬
‫ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ 500‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺘﻪ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ )ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﻤﺔ ﻝﻨﺩﻥ(‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺜﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺔ ﻝﻥ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻔﺎﻋل ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺭﻏﻡ ﺩﻋﻡ ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ‪ :‬ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫‪Reflections og Global Financial Crisis on Developing Countries‬‬
‫ﻝﻘﺩ ﺒﺩﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻜﺈﻋﺼﺎﺭ ﻤﺎﻝﻲ ‪ Financial Hurricane‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺸﻙ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻀﺭﺏ ﻭﻴﺴﺤﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ )ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ(‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺫﻝﻙ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺜﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ ﻭﺠﻬﻭﺍ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻹﻨﺫﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺫﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻝﺙ ﻷﺨﺫ ﻜل‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻌﺩﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻝﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺎﺭﺜﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻨﺎل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﻕ ﻨﺎﻗﻭﺱ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻰ ﺇﺤﻜﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺫﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺩﻋﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺌﻤﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺩ ﹼ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻌﺩﺍﺩﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻝﻠﺘﻌﺎﻁﻲ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻤﺘﺩﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺠﻌﻠﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻠﺯﻤﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ‪ ،Financial Development‬ﻭﻭﺠﺩﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﻠﺤ ﹼﺔ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻌﻤﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺼﻼﺡ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﻫﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺘﺘﻌﺎﻅﻡ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺸﺎﻤﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻝﻴﺴﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺯل ﻋﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺜﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻌﻭﻥ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺤﺎ ‪‬ﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺒﺎﺤﺜﻴﻥ ﺁﺨﺭﻴﻥ ﻴﻨﻅﺭﻭﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻬﺩ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺘﻔﺎﺅﻻ ﻭﻻ ﻴﺘﻔﻘﻭﻥ ﻤﻊ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺒﻔﻌل ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺭﻯ )‪ (Lin, 2008‬ﻭ )‪ (Taylor,2009‬ﻭ)‪ (Harsch, 2009‬ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺘﻌﺯﺯ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻜﻬﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻔﺎﺌﻠﺔ ﺒﺨﺼﻭﺹ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻗﻠﻡ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻴﻁﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻜﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻝﻤﺎ ﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻝﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺠﻴﺩ ‪Good Growth‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺃﻓﻀل‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻌﻠﻤﺕ ﺩﺭﻭﺴﺎ ﻤﻔﻴﺩﺓ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻵﺴﻴﻭﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪.1998‬‬
‫• ﺇﻥ ﺒﺭﺍﻤﺞ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ )ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺄﻤﻭﺍل ﺨﺯﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺔ( ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺠﺭﻱ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫﻫﺎ ﺘﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻔﻴﻑ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻭﻤﺩﺓ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺘﺩﺍﺒﻴﺭ ﻭﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻴﺠﺭﻱ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﻝﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺭﻯ )ﺍﻝﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩ( ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﺤﺩﺙ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﻋﺏ ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﻋﺏ ﺴﺘﻀﺭﺏ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺒﺒﻁﺀ ﻭﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺘﺘﻴﺢ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﻌﺎﻁﻰ ﻤﻌﻬﺎ ﺒﻔﺎﻋﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻥ ﺼﻤﻭﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺴﻴﺘﺭﻙ ﺁﺜﺎﺭﺍ ﻭﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺭﺒﻁ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻭﻝﻴﺱ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﺤﺎل ﻓﻲ ﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺘﺤﺴﺏ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻝﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﺄﺜﺭﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺒﺄﺸﻜﺎل ﻭﺃﻨﻤﺎﻁ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﺜﺎل‪ ،‬ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﻭﺭ ﻭﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﺘﺎﺝ‬
‫ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺒﻘﺎﺌﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻝﺜﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺄﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﻭﺭ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﺘﺎﺝ‬
‫ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺒﻘﺎﺌﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺒﻭﻗﻭﻉ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﻭﻑ ﺍﻷﻜﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﺃﺭﺠﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﺨﻭﻑ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺭﻋﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻝﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻝﻌﺩﻭﻯ ﻭﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺼﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺘﺘﺼﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺱ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﺼﺩﺭ ﺨﻁﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻴﺠﻠﺏ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺄﺘﻲ‪:‬‬
‫• ﻴﺭﻯ )‪ (James, 2009‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﻘﺩﺭ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻤﺘﻠﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺼﻭل ﺘﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺒﺎﻝﺭﻫﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﺩﺓ ‪ ،Subprime Mortgage‬ﻭﻝﻜﻥ‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﻭل ﺃﻨﻪ ﻝﻐﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻵﻥ ﻝﻡ ﺘﻠﺤﻕ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻀﺭﺍﺭ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﺒﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁﺎﺕ ﻭﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁﺎﺕ ﻭﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺁﺨﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩﺓ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ )ﻭﻤﺜﺎل ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ ﺍﻝﻼﺘﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ(‪.‬‬
‫• ﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Meltzer, 2009‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻌﺯﺯﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﺒﺭ ﻤﺎ ﻭﻗﻊ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﺎﺕ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺯل‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻭﻨﻘﺹ ﻓﻲ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺃﻤﻭﺍل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﺴﺒﺏ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩ ‪ Cash‬ﺍﻝﻼﺯﻡ ﻭﺍﻝﻜﺎﻓﻲ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺩﻓﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻻﺒﺘﻌﺎﺩ ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺠﺎﻡ ﻋﻥ ﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺩﻋﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺘﻌﺯﺯ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻭﺃ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻨﺎﺭﻴﻭﻫﺎﺕ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻘﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﻔﺎﺌﻴﺔ ‪ Solvency‬ﻓﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﻏﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻭﻓﺎﺀ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﻐﻴﺭ ﻭﻗﺩ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺒﺈﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻫﻴﻜﻠﺔ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺃﻤﻭﺍل ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻴﺭﻯ )‪ (Dowd, 2009‬ﺃﻥ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ )ﻝﻸﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ( ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻤﺘﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻁﺎﻝﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Tsuo, 2009‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻘﻭﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺇﻀﻌﺎﻑ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻭﺇﻀﻌﺎﻑ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺤﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻔﻘﺭ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‪ (Turbide, Laurin, Lapierre, and Morissette,2008‬ﻭ)‪ (Harsch, 2009‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ‬

‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺃﺜﺭﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ‪International Financial‬‬
‫‪ Capital‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻗﺩ ﺍﺘﺠﻬﻭﺍ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺴﺤﺒﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺴﺒﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﻫﻭ ﻗﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻫﺅﻻﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻭﻗﻭﻉ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺠﻌل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬
‫ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﺓ ‪ More Risk‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ )ﻤﺜل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺯﻴﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‪:‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻤﻜﻨﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺠﻨﺏ ﺍﻷﺫﻯ ﻭﺍﻝﻀﺭﺭ ﻭﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﻤﻜﻨﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺠﻨﻴﺏ ﻨﻅﻤﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻶﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻻ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬
‫ﺇﻏﻔﺎل ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺭ‪‬ﺓ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺩﺨﻠﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺭﻜﻭﺩ ‪ ،Recession‬ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ‬
‫)‪ (Takeuchi, and Nakamichi, 2008‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺭﻜﻭﺩ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻴﺠﻠﺏ ﻝﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻀﺭﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﺫﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﺫﻯ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻠﺤﻕ ﺒﺎﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻫﻡ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺭﻭﻑ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺃﺴﺴﺕ ﺠﺯﺀﺍ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ‪،Export‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻀﺤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺭﻯ )‪ (Monaghan, 2009‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻋﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻻ ﻴﻘﺘﺼﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﻗﺎﺌﻡ ﻭﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﺎﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﺍﻀﺤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻫﻲ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﻜﻭﺭﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﻤﺎﻝﻴﺯﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻝﻴﺎﺒﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺜﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻋﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﻔﻌل ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ )‪ International Monetary Fund (IMF‬ﺃﻥ ﻴﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ‪ %7.4‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2006‬ﺇﻝﻰ ‪ %2.1‬ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺍﺨﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪.(Macartney, 2009) 2009‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﻫﻡ ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ‪ :‬ﻴﺭﻯ )‪ (Coonan, 2009‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ ﻴﻠﺤﻕ ﺃﻀﺭﺍﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻝﻌﺩﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌ ‪‬ﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﻥ ﻝﻠﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ %19‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪) 2009‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻻ‬
‫ﻴﺸﻤل ﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻭﺍﻝﻁﺎﻗﺔ(‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Macartney, 2009‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﺩﺩﺍ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺘﺩﻋﻴﻡ ﻋﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺘﻘﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﺒﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻀﺎﺌﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ ﻗﺩ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻋﺎ ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅﺎ ﻭﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺠﻴﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻠﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﻝﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﻨﻴﻜل ‪ Nickel‬ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺤﺎﺱ ‪ ،Copper‬ﻭﺍﻝﺒﻼﺘﻴﻥ‬
‫‪ Platinum‬ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﻝﻜﻥ ﻤﺎ ﺤﺩﺙ ﻫﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻤﻨﺫ ﺸﻬﺭ ﺃﻴﻠﻭل ‪ ،2009‬ﻭﻗﺩ‬
‫ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺒﺭﻤﻴل ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺒﺄﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ %70‬ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻨﺼﻑ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ ،2008‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﺘﺠﻬﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺒﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﻀﺤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﺘﺄﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺒﺎﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ ﻫﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ‪ South Africa‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺼﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺭﺌﻴﺱ ‪ Major Exporter‬ﻝﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻼﺘﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻌﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻗﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﻋﺠﺯ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﻀﻐﻭﻁ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺩﻭﻝﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ‪،Currency Value‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻌﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺭ‪‬ﻨﺩ ‪) Rand‬ﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ( ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ %40‬ﻓﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺁﺨﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺃﻜﺩ )‪ (Te Velde, 2009‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻼﺘﻴﻥ ﻗﺩ ﺃﻋﻠﻨﺕ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻘﻠﻴﺹ ﻓﻲ ﻁﻭﺍﻗﻡ ﻋﺎﻤﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺸﻤل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻠﻴﺹ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ 10,000‬ﻋﺎﻤل‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺸﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺠﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻊ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺘﻘﺘﺼﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺒل ﺇﻥ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﺜﻤﺎﻨﻲ )ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻭﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﻭﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﻓﺭﻨﺴﺎ ﻭﺃﻝﻤﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﺇﻴﻁﺎﻝﻴﺎ ﻭﻜﻨﺩﺍ ﻭﺍﻝﻴﺎﺒﺎﻥ( ﻗﺩ ﺍﻤﺘﺩﺕ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻝﻡ ﻴﻘﺘﺼﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Coonan, 2009‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺤﺼﺔ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫‪ Imports‬ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ ﺘﺄﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺘﺸﻤل ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺘﺸﻤل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﺜﺎل ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺒﺭﻤﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩ )ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺘﻜﻨﻭﻝﻭﺠﻴﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ( ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﺘﺴﺠل ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻌﺎ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ‪ :Tourism Demand‬ﻴﺭﻯ )‪ (McClatchy, 2009‬ﺃﻥ ﺃﺤﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬

‫ﺍﻝﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﻋﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻌﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ‪ ،Tourism‬ﻭﻤﻨﺫ‬
‫ﺃﻴﻠﻭل ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2008‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻓﺭﻴﻥ )ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﻭﻁ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﻴﺔ( ﻗﺩ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺤﺎﺩ‪‬ﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Douglas, Hanks (2009‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺠﺯﺀﺍ ﻤﻬﻤﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻔﺭ ﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ‪ ،Business Purposes‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻴﺘﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﺎ ﻭﺍﻀﺤﺎ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻗﺩ ﺨﻔﻀﻭﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺇﻨﻔﺎﻗﻬﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻝﻜﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺭﻓﻴﻬﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻹﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻨﺎﺯل )ﺒﻴﻭﺕ( ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل‬
‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ )ﻏﻴﺭ ﺩﻭﻝﻬﻡ( ﻝﻘﻀﺎﺀ ﺍﻹﺠﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺯل‪ ،‬ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺼﻌﻭﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ‪ ،Second Mortgage‬ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﻐﻴﺭﺓ )ﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﺨﻭﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ( ﻗﺩ ﺴﺠﻠﺕ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻌﺎ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺠﻭﺯﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﻨﺎﺩﻗﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻝﺜﺎ‪ :‬ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (Financial‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺩﺨﻭل ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ‪Lin, 2008‬ﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‬ ‫ﻤﻥ ﺒﻘﻴﺔ ‪Inflows‬‬
‫ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺇﻝﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺤﺘﻰ ﺘﺴﺎﻫﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺴﻬﻴل ﻭﺘﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‪،‬‬
‫( ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﻀﻤﻥ‪Pounder, 2009 :‬ﻭﻴﺭﻯ )‬
‫• ﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ ‪.Official Development Assistance ODF‬‬
‫• ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ )ﻓﻲ ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺃﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ(‪.‬‬
‫• ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ‪.Trade Credits‬‬
‫• ﺍﻝﺤﻭﺍﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ ‪.Remittances‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻌﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﺘﻘﻠﺼﺕ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫( ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ‪Cowen, 2009‬ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﺸﺎﺭ )‬
‫ﻝﻠﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺍﺨﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2008‬ﻗﺩ ﺒﻠﻎ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪Financial Resources‬ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ 300‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﻠﻎ ﻗﺩ ﻭﺼل ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ 400‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺼل ﻴﻭﻤﺎ ﻤﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻤﺄﻤﻭل‪ODA ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ‪Monterrey‬ﻭﻝﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﺘﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2002‬ﺘﻡ ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻕ ﻭﺇﺠﻤﺎﻉ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﻨﺘﻴﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺒﺨﺼﻭﺹ ﺍﻻﻝﺘﺯﺍﻡ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻝﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺘﻔﺎﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻉ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻜل ﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺃﻝﺯﻤﺕ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻜﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﻝﻠﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺘﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ‪GNP‬ﺒﺄﻥ ﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗل ‪ %0.7‬ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺘﺠﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﻤﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﻝﻠﻤﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻋﻘﺩ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪) 2008‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﺤﺔ ﻝﻤﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﻭﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻻﺘﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2002‬ﺒﺨﺼﻭﺹ‬
‫ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ( ﻓﻘﺩ ﺍﺘﻀﺢ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻠﺔ ﺼﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺯﻤﺕ ﺒﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ ﺘﻌﻬﺩﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻗﻁﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪) 2002‬ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ‪ %0.7‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗل ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺘﺠﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﻤﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ(‪ .‬ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺇﻋﻼﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﺤﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺹ ﺒﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﻏﻠﺏ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺃﻋﺎﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﺯﺍﻡ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻹﺒﻘﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻌﻬﺩﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺴﺭﻴﻊ‬
‫ﺫﻝﻙ ﻗﺩﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻁﺎﻉ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺠﺩﻻ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﺯﻤﺕ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ )‪ (2008-2002‬ﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺘﻌﻬﺩﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﻜﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻭﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﻤﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺴﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﺏ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺇﻏﻔﺎل ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﺠﻡ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬
‫‪Currency Depreciation.‬‬
‫( ﺃﻨﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ‪Lin, 2008‬ﻭﻴﺭﻯ )‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ‪ ،‬ﻏﻴﺭ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﺠﻨﺏ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺤﺠﻡ‬
‫ﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺠﺩﺍ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﺎ ﺒﺎﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺠﺭﻱ ﺇﻨﻔﺎﻗﻬﺎ ﻹﻨﻘﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﺨﺭﺍﺠﻪ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺃﺯﻤﺘﻪ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺩﻭﻻ ﻤﺎﻨﺤﺔ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻗﺩ ﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﺼﻴﻥ‪.‬‬
‫( ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺹ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ )ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﺇﻝﻰ ‪Markowitz, 2009‬ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ( ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻴﺘﺠﻬﻭﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺤﺭﻴﻙ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﻡ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬
‫‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻴﺘﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅ ‪Safer Havens‬ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻼﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺃﻤﺎﻨﺎ‬
‫( ﺃﻥ ﻨﻘﺹ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅ ‪ .Meltzer, 2009‬ﻭﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‪FDI‬ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺤﺼﻭل ﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺹ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‪ .‬ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺁﺨﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺘﻜﺎﻝﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ )ﻭﻜﻼﻫﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ( ﻗﺩ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺤﺎﺩ‪‬ﺓ ﻭﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Harsch, Ernest (2009‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺠﺯﺍﺀ ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ﻭﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻏﻠﺏ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ‬
‫ﺃﺠﺯﺍﺀ ﺃﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﺘﺠﻠﺒﻪ ﻭﺘﺤﻔﺯﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ‪ Resource‬ﻓﻲ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﻁﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﺘﺘﻀﺎﺀل ﻭﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﺩﺭﺍﺝ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻫﻲ ﺃﺤﺩ ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺅﻜﺩ ‪Remittances‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫( ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺠﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ )ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﺎﺠﺭﻴﻥ ‪)Markowitz, 2009‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻭﻴﺤﻭﻝﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﺇﻝﻰ ﺩﻭﻝﻬﻡ( ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﻭﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻫﺅﻻﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﺎﺠﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﺃﻭﻝﺌﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲ‬
‫)ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻌﻠﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﻫﺅﻻﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﺎﺠﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﺘﺸﻜل ﻤﺎ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﻋﻥ ‪ %10‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﻤﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫(‪GNP .‬‬
‫( ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻗﺩ ‪Simkovic, 2009‬ﻭﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‬
‫ﺘﻨﺎﻤﺕ ﻭﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺕ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺴﺒﻘﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ‪ 2008‬ﻭﺼﺎﺭﺕ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2007‬ﻤﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 240‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﻠﻎ ﻴﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﺒﻤﺭﺘﻴﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪.2007‬‬
‫ﻤﻘﺘﺭﺤﺎﺕ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻔﺠﺭﺕ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2008‬ﺍﻝﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺄﺘﻲ‪:‬‬
‫• ﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﻭﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﻴﺠﺭﻱ ﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﻫﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺭﻗﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺘﻌﻤل ﺒﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﺘﻤﺘﻠﻙ ﺼﻼﺤﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﺀﻝﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺇﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺁﻝﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﻭﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩ‬
‫ ﻭﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻔل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕ ﻤﻨﻊ ﻫﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﻭﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﺃﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺩﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬،‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ‬
.‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ‬
.‫• ﻭﻀﻊ ﺒﺭﺍﻤﺞ ﺘﻜﻔل ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﺔ ﻭﻜﻔﺅﺓ ﻝﻠﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‬
‫ﺓ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬‫• ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻨﻌﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻴﺸﺎﺭﻙ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻌﻤﻴﻕ ﺤﺩ‬
.‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫• ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺩﺭﻭﺱ ﻝﻠﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻹﻨﻘﺎﺫ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﻤﺎﺡ‬
‫ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻝﻸﺠﻬﺯﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬،‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﺘﻌﻤﻴﻕ ﻭﺘﺭﺴﻴﺦ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
.‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻜﻜل‬
‫• ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺤﺎﻝﻴﺎ ﻭﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ﻴﻜﻔل ﻝﻜل ﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺭﻴﺎﺕ‬
،‫ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻴﺢ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺭﺒﻁ ﻋﻤﻠﺘﻬﺎ ﺒﺴﻠﺔ ﻋﻤﻼﺕ ﻴﺠﺭﻱ ﺍﻻﺘﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺒﺘﻬﺎ‬
.‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻲ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺴﺎﺌﺩ ﺤﺎﻝﻴﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬
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"International Economics and Economic Policy", Vol. 4, No. 4; pp.331-347.
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‫ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻜﻴﺔ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ‬:‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
*
‫ ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﻋﺒﺩ ﺍﷲ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻤﻨﻲ‬.‫ﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻠﺨﺹ‬
‫ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻰ ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻜﻴﺔ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ‬
‫ ﻭﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺩﻑ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬.2008 ‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺨﺭﻴﻑ‬
‫ﺘﻡ ﺃﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻷﺴﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺃﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻷﺩﺒﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻋﺎﻝﺠﺕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬
‫ ﻭﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻜﻴﺔ‬.‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻝﻰ ﻤﻅﺎﻫﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺤﻘﻕ ﻤﺼﺎﻝﺤﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﻴﺔ‬،‫ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﺃﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺇﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻅﻤﺔ ﻝﻌﻤﻠﻬﺎ‬
‫ ﻭﺨﻠﺼﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬.‫ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺸﻑ ﻏﺵ ﻭﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﻪ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﻴﺯﺓ ﻤﻥ‬
.(‫ردن‬t‫ )ا‬-O]s‫رد‬t‫ ا‬OYJHuT‫ ا‬-O‫داری‬l‫م ا‬Q`YT‫د وا‬HoLpq‫ ا‬O]`‫ آ‬W]Sh *

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‫ﻭﻝﺩﻴﻬﺎ ﻋﺠﺯ ﻓﻲ ﺤﻭﻜﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻝﻀﺒﻁ ﺴﻠﻭﻙ‬، ‫ ﻭﺃﻥ ﺜﻤﺔ ﻗﺼﻭﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻁﺒﻘﺔ‬.‫ﻗﺒﻠﻬﺎ‬
.‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
.‫ ﺍﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬،‫ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬،‫ ﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬،‫ ﺍﻻﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻜﻴﺔ ﻝﻼﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬،‫ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬،:‫ﻜﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﻔﺘﺎﺤﻴﻪ‬
Abstract
This study investigates the role of behavioral dimensions of corporate
management on transactions of accounting measurement and disclosure that
cause financial crises which affected the financial market all over the world in
autumn 2008. To achieve this objective, the research used deductive and
analytical approaches, through financial press and publications regarding
behavioral dimensions of corporate management on transactions of accounting
measurement and disclosure related to this crisis. The research concentrates on
causes of crisis and self motives and intervention approaches that used in
measurement and disclosure. The result indicates that there is a shortage on
accounting standards and corporate governance. So, they note that the positive
approach is dominant and it has an important role in the financial crises as a
result of biased accounting practices by management. The research suggests
some related recommendations.
:‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻡ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻨﺘﻘﻠﺕ ﻋﺩﻭﺍﻩ ﺇﻝﻰ‬2008 ‫ﺸﻬﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺨﺭﻴﻑ‬
‫ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻨﺸﺅ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬،‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻋﻭﻝﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬
‫ ﺇﺫ ﻓﻘﺩﺕ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺠﺯﺀﹰﺍ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺴﻬﻤﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﺤﻤﻠﺕ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬،‫ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺴﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻝﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻁﺎﻝﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻝﻔﻘﺭ ﻭﻀﻴﺎﻉ ﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺃﺼﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬
‫ ﻭﻓﻘﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ‬،‫ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ‬
‫ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺭﻀﺕ‬،‫ ﻭﺘﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻤﺘﺩﺍﺩ ﻻﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺤﺩﺜﺕ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻴﺔ‬،‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
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‫ﻝﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺩﻭل ﺸﺭﻕ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ ﻭﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ ﺍﻝﻼﺘﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺭﻭﺴﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺤﺩﺜﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﻤﺜﺎل ﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﺎ ﺤﺩﺙ ﻓﻲ ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻨﺭﻭﻥ ‪ Enron‬ﻭﺭﻝﺩ‬
‫ﻜﻭﻡ‪ World com‬ﻭﻫﺎﺭﻜﻥ‪ Harkin‬ﻭﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻫﻠﺙ ﺴﺎﻭﺙ‪ ،....‬ﻭﻤﺎ ﺘﺒﻌﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻓﻼﺱ ﻭﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﻓﻘﺩﺕ‬
‫ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺜﻘﺔ ﻏﺎﻝﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺭﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﻙ ﺒﺈﺩﺍﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻝﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺯﺍﻫﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺩﺍﺀ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻴﻌﺯﻯ‬
‫ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴ ﹰﺎ ﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻷﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻌﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﻴﺯﺓ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺅﻭل ﺍﻷﻭل ﻋﻥ ﻨﻘﺹ ﺍﻝﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺒﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻅﻬﺎﺭ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻻ ﺘﻌﺒﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺸﺭﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﻌﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻬﻡ ﻝﻠﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻘﺭﻀﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﺍﺌﻨﻴﻥ‪،....‬ﻝﺘﺴﺎﻋﺩﻫﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺘﻬﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺸﻴﺩﺓ ‪،‬ﻓﺎﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﺩ ﻭﻓﻕ ﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﻤﺘﻌﺎﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﻤﻘﺒﻭﻝﺔ ﻗﺒﻭﻻ ﻋﺎﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺴﺠﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻁﻠﻭﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻱ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺍﻥ ﺘﺴﺠل؟ ﻭﻤﺘﻰ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺍﻥ ﺘﺴﺠل؟ﻭﺍﻱ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ؟ ﻭﺍﻱ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺍﻋﺩﺍﺩﻫﺎ؟‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﺘﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻌﺒﺭ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺒﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺘﺼﺩﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﺔ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﻤﺤﺘﻭﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻬﻲ ﺘﺨﺘﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻫﺘﻡ ﺍﻻﺩﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻭﻯ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺒﺼﻔﺎﺕ ﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﻻﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻫﺘﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺒﻌﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻜﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻝﻠﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻗﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺘﻀﻠﻴل ﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻴﻤﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺼﺩﻕ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﺍﻻﺤﺩﺍﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺤﺩﺜﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻥ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻼﻋﺏ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﺤﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﻰ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﺨﻴﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺔ ﻝﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻓﻀﺎﺌﺢ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺴﺒﺏ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﺨﺭﻭﺠﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﺎﻝﻠﺤﺎﻕ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻝﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻘﺭﻀﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻀﺭﻭﺭﻱ ﻤﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻴﻬﺎ ﻝﺘﻘﻴﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬
‫ﺒﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﻝﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻭﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻻﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻜﻴﺔ ﻝﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻀﻠﻴل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻭﺍﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﹶﺘ ‪‬ﺩ ﹼﻨﻲ ﺠﻭﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﹶﺜ ‪‬ﻡ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺜﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﺒﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺇﺨﻔﺎﺀ ﺤﻘﺎﺌﻕ ﻭﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﻭﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻝﻠﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻻﻁﻼﻉ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺠﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺇﻥ ﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺒﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻴﻬﺩﻑ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻫﺘﺯﺍﺯ ﻭﻀﻊ ﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻗﺩ ﻴﺼل ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺇﻋﻼﻥ ﺇﻓﻼﺴﻬﺎ ﻭﺨﺭﻭﺠﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻠﺨﻴﺹ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻻﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﺘﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻜﻲ ﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ؟‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻤﺎﻫﻲ ﺍﻻﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻁﻠﻭﺒﺔ ﻝﻠﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻝﺘﺠﻨﺏ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ؟‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻤﺎ ﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﺩﻗﻘﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻝﻜﺸﻑ ﻏﺵ ﻭﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‬
‫ﻝﺘﺠﻨﺏ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ؟‬
‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻻﺘﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻝﻺﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ‪.2008‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﺩﻗﻘﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺸﻑ ﻏﺵ ﻭﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ‬ ‫‪-4‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻔﻀﺎﺌﺢ ﻭﺍﻻﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻓﻼﺱ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻌﺎﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻜﺒﺩﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻭﻥ ﻭﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﺭﺒﺎﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﺴﺏ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺴﺎﺭﻉ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻋﻭﻝﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻻﻤﻭﺍل ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‪ ،‬ﻗﺩ ﺃﺸﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﻝﺼﺤﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻘﻑ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻹﻋﺼﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪ ،‬ﻜﻐﻴﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻭﻀﻭﺡ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻐﺎﻀﻲ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﺨﻁﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻀﺨﻴﻡ ﺍﻻﻨﺠﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻭﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺨﻴﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﺴﻬﻡ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻤﺒﺭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻭﺍﻁﺅ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺴﺅﻝﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﺩﺍﺌﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻔﺴﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺌﻭﻝﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﺸﺎﻭﻱ ﻝﻤﺴﺌﻭﻝﻴﻥ ﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﻥ ‪ .‬ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﺠﺎﺀﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻝﺘﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺩﻭﺭ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺎﻫﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻻﺴﺘﻌﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻨﺸﺎﻁﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﺜﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ‪،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻝﻤﺎ ﺘﺤﻤﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﺠﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﺠﺩﺕ ﻝﻜﻲ ﺘﺴﺎﻫﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺩﻋﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭﺘﻨﺸﻁ ﺍﻝﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺘﺴﺎﻫﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺭﻓﺎﺓ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻻﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﻝﻜﻥ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺸﻬﺩﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻀﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﺩﺕ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﺘﺴﺒﺒﺕ ﺒﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬
‫ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻝﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻁﺎﻝﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻝﻔﻘﺭ ﻭﻀﻴﺎﻉ ﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﺼﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ‬
‫ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻘﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻋﺯﻱ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻔﺴﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻭﺍﻓﺘﻘﺎﺭ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻴﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺸﺭﺍﻑ ﻭﺍﻝﻰ ﻗﺼﻭﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﻝﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻅﻬﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺒﺭ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﹰﺎ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺘﺩﺨﻠﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻤﻌﺎﺭﻓﻬﻡ ﺒﺎﻝﻘﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﻨﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﻪ ﻝﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺠﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﻭﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻘﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺸﻔﻬﺎ ﻭﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﺩ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺸﻜل‬
‫ﻼ ﻤﻬﻤ‪‬ﺎ ﻝﺘﺠﻨﺏ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﻭﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺘﺄﺘﻲ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻤ ﹰ‬
‫ﺇﺤﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﻀﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺭﻜﺯ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺩﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎ ﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﻭﺼﻭﻻ ﻷﻓﻀل ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻝﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻜﻴﺔ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻝﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻁﻘﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻝﻠﻜﺸﻑ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻁﺒﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﺍﻝﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺘﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁﻲ‬ ‫‪-1‬‬
‫ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻁﻘﻲ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺠﻲ ﻝﻤﺤﺎﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﻁ ﺒﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻜﻴﺔ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﺘﺎﺌﺠﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻻﻁﻼﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻜﺘﺎﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﺩﺜﺕ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻝﻠﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﺴﻨﺘﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﻝﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻝﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺇﺴﻬﺎﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﻝﻠﻭﻗﻭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻝﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ‪.‬‬
‫ﺨﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﺍﻻﺘﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻷﻭل‪ :‬ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ‪ :‬ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻻﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻜﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻝﺙ‪ :‬ﺍﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺒﻊ‪ :‬ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﻤﺱ‪ :‬ﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﺩﻗﻘﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺸﻑ ﻏﺵ ﻭﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺩﺱ‪:‬ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻷﻭل‪ :‬ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻝﻺﻋﺼﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ‪2008‬‬
‫ﻝﻡ ﻴﺴﺒﻕ ﻝﻠﺼﺤﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﻭﺴﺎﺌﻠﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺕ ﺒﺄﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﻨﺴﺏ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺸﻬﺩﻩ ﻤﻨﺫ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺃﺼﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺤﻘﻘﺕ ﺒﻴﻭﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻫﺎﺌﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻘﺩﺭ ﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺤﻘﻘﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ ﻭﺤﺩﻫﺎ ﺒﺨﻤﺴﻤﺎﺌﺔ ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺱ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺎ ﻴﺸﻌﺭﻭﻥ ﺒﻨﻘﺹ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻨﺘﺸﺭ ﺍﻝﻬﻠﻊ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﻁﻨﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺤﺩﺍ ﺒﺎﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻭﺼﻔﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺘﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻘﺭﺭﺕ ﻀﺦ ‪ 700‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﺩﺩﺓ ﺒﺎﻹﻓﻼﺱ‪.‬ﻭﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺘﺭﺡ ﻓﻲ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻭﻙ ﺒﺘﺤﺼﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺘﻌﺒﺭ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﻝﻴﺱ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻤﻘﺭﺍﻁﻴﻴﻥ ﻋﺎﺭﻀﻭﺍ ﻭﺠﻬﺔ ﻨﻅﺭ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺱ‬
‫ﺒﻭﺵ ﻭﻗﺎﻝﻭﺍ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺒﻤﺜﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﻜﺎﻓﺌﺔ ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﺩﺩﺓ ﺒﺎﻹﻓﻼﺱ ﻭﺠﻌﻠﻬﺎ ﺭﺍﺒﺤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻝﺫﺍ ﺘﺤﻭل ﺍﻝﺭﺃﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ‬
‫ﺃﻤﻭﺍل ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺜﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻤﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺒﺩﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻝﺤﺭﺹ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﺩﺨل‬
‫ﺒﺈﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺨﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺩﻋﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﺠﺘﻤﺎﻉ ﻝﻠﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺴﺒﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺎﺭ ﻓﺘﺒﻨﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺒﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺩﻋﻡ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺒﻴﻴﻥ ﻗﺭﺭﻭﺍ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ‬
‫ﻋﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻝﻴﺴﺕ ﻤﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﻡ ﺩﻋﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﺠﺘﻤﺎﻉ ﻝﻌﺸﺭﻴﻥ ﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺒﻌﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻜﺎﻝﺒﺭﺍﺯﻴل ﻭﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﺼﻴﻥ‪ ،......‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺠﺎﺀ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﺘﺎﻤﻲ ﻝﻤﺅﺘﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺸﺭﻴﻥ ﻝﻴﺅﻜﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺩﻋﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻁﺎﻝﺒﺔ ﺒﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻀﻭﺍﺒﻁ ﺭﻗﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻘﻀﻲ ﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﻋﺒﺭ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺒﻭﺵ ﺒﻤﺼﻁﻠﺢ‬
‫"ﺇﺼﻼﺡ ﺍﻝﻌﺠﻼﺕ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻝﻬﺎ"‪).‬ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻤﻨﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﺎﻀﻲ‪.(2009 ،‬‬
‫ﻝﻌل ﺃﻫﻡ ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻹﻋﺼﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻥ ﺘﻜﻤﻥ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ( ﻋﻭﻝﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ‪.‬‬
‫ﺝ( ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﺭ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩ( ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬
‫ﻫـ( ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭ( ﻀﻌﻑ ﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﺩﺭﺍﻝﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪.‬‬
‫ﻱ( ﺍﻻﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻜﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻷﺘﻲ ﻋﺭﺽ ﻤﻭﺠﺯ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻭﻝﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃ(‬
‫ﺃﺩﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﺍﻝﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﺠﻤﺭﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺒﻌﺩ ﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﻭﺍﺘﺴﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻭﻝﻤﺔ ﻝﺘﻐﻁﻲ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺃﺭﺠﺎﺀ ﻜﻭﻜﺒﻨﺎ ﻭﺘﻬﺎﻓﺕ ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻨﻔﻭﺫ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺠﻨﺴﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺴﻴﻁﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻭﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻨﻴﻪ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺤﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺠﻨﺴﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺭﺴﻡ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﺒﺎﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺃﻨﺤﺎﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺼﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺔ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺼﻤﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺠﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻅﻤﻰ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺒﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎل ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻔﺘﺕ ﺸﺭﺍﺌﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﺴﻁﻰ ﻝﺘﻨﻅﻡ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺸﺭﻴﺤﺔ ﺍﻝﻔﻘﺭﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻌﺎﻅﻡ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻜﻠﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻏﺎﻝﺒﻴﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺠﻨﺴﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﻨﺴﻴﺔ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺩﻓﻬﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺩﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻴﺩ ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺩﻓﻌﻬﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻨﻘل ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﺃﺠﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻴﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﺍﺌﺏ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺘﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺼﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﻌﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻴﻴﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺼﻴﻥ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻝﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻤﺼﻨﻭﻋﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺼﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﺒﻁﺎﻝﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻔﺸﻲ ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﻋﻤﻠﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺘﺩﺭﻴﺠﻴﹰﺎ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻜﺎﻝﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺃﻨﺤﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺤﻴﻥ ﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺌﺔ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻝﻠﺒﺭﻤﻴل ﺼﺎﺭﺕ ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﺤﻲ )ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺜﺎﻨﻭل(‬
‫ﻤﺒﺭﺭﺓ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﹰ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺤﺒﻭﺏ ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﻐﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻫﺩﺩ ﻋﺸﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻼﻴﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺠﺎﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﻓﻊ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻌﻴﺸﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻝﺠﺄﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﺴﺘﺩﺍﻨﺕ ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻻﹰ‪ ،‬ﺃﻋﺎﺩﺕ ﻀﺨﻬﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺩﺍﻓﻌﻲ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﺍﺌﺏ‬
‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل ‪ $800‬ﻝﻜل ﺩﺍﻓﻊ ﻀﺭﺍﺌﺏ ﻝﻤﺤﺎﻭﻝﺔ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻭﺘﻼﻓﻲ ﺤﻠﻭل ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺭﻴﻥ ﻻ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺸﻔﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻴﺽ ﺒل ﻴﺭﻴﺤﻪ ﻤﺅﻗﺘﹰﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺝ‪ -‬ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺘﺴﻌﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺎﺠﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ )‪ (Derivatives‬ﻤﻥ ﻋﻘﻭﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﻥ ﺃﻭ ﺁﺠﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻭﻻﺕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﻠﻎ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺃﻀﻌﺎﻓﹰﺎ ﻤﻀﺎﻋﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺍﻭل ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻌﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺎﺡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل‬
‫ﻤﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ )‪ (IAS39‬ﻤﻨﻊ ﺒﻘﺎﺀ ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺎﺕ ﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻝﻜﻥ ﻀﺨﺎﻤﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﻨﻭﻋﻬﺎ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺠﻌل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﻤﺩﻗﻘﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺼﻌﻭﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩ‪ -‬ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﻠﻌﺏ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﻥ ﺩﻭﺭﹰﺍ ﻗﻴﺎﺩﻴﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻌﺩ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺴﻭﻗﹰﺎ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﻜل ﻤﺎ ﻝﻠﻜﻠﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﻨﻰ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺠﺭﺩ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺒﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺯل ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺸﻘﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻱ ﻤﻭﺍﻁﻥ‬
‫ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺩﺨﻠﻪ ﺃﻭ ﻭﻅﻴﻔﺘﻪ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻴﻭﻗﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﺭﻱ ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺒﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺒﺎﺨﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻝﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﻥ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺤﺎﻝﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺸﻐﻴل ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﻓﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﻗﻠﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻁﺎﻝﺔ ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﻭﺍﺘﺏ ﻭﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ ﺘﻜﺎﻝﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ ﻜﻠﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺴﻌﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻭﺭﻗﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﺼﺤﻴﺢ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﻥ ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻪ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﻝﺤﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﺒﺎﻝﺸﺭﻜﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﻗﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻠﺘﻴﻥ ﺘﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﻥ ﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻡ )‪2008‬ﻡ( ﺇﻝﻰ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﻫﺎﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺘﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﺒﻨﻙ )‪ (Leman Brothers‬ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻴﺘﻌﺎﻤل‬
‫ﺒﺎﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﺍﺸﺘﺭﺕ ﻤﻨﻪ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﺃﻭ ﻤﻥ ﻏﻴﺭﻩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺜﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻜﺫﺍ ﻋﻡ ﺍﻹﻓﻼﺱ ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻨﻴﻭﻴﻭﺭﻙ ﺜﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪ .‬ﻭﻜﺎﻥ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﺭﺓ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﺘﻘﺭﺭ ﻀﺦ‬
‫‪700‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺘﻘﺩﻤﻬﺎ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺨﺯﺍﻨﺔ ﻹﻨﻘﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻗﻑ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﻤﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺜﺭﺓ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﺸﺭﻜﺘﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﻠﺴﺘﻴﻥ ﻝﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﻋﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﺒﻨﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻴﺔ ﻜﺈﻨﺠﻠﺘﺭﺍ ﻭﺒﻠﺠﻴﻜﺎ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﻝﻜﻥ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﻓﻲ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻫـ‪ -‬ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﺩﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﺭﻭﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺨﺎﻀﺘﻬﺎ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺍﻕ ﻭﺃﻓﻐﺎﻨﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﻜﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﺠﺯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺯﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﻴﺸﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺇﻀﻌﺎﻑ ﺍﻝﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭ‪ -‬ﻀﻌﻑ ﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﺩﺭﺍﻝﻲ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺴﺒﻕ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻋﻔﺕ ﻤﺼﺭﻑ ﻝﻴﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﺭﺍﺫﺭﺯ)‪ (Leman Brothers‬ﻤﻥ ﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﺩﺭﺍﻝﻲ‪ ،‬ﺒﺩﻋﻭﻯ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺩﻋﻡ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﻥ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺘﺨﻀﻊ ﻝﻘﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺒﺎﺯل ﺍﻝﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﺤﺭﺼﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﺴﺭﻴﺘﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻜﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻷﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‬
‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻨﻅﺎﻤﹰﺎ ﻤﻔﺘﻭﺤﹰﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﻅﻭﺍﻫﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﻗﺎﻨﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻨﻭﻋﺔ ﻭﻤﺘﺸﺎﺒﻜﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻻ ﻋﺎﻤ ﹰﺎ ﻝﻀﺒﻁ ﻭﺘﺭﺸﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺨﻀﻊ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺒﻭﻝﺔ ﻗﺒﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﺨﻀﻊ ﺃﺴﺱ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻷﻫﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺭﻏﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺘﺄﺜﺭﺓ ﺒﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻝﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺒﺎﺩل ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺩﺨﻼﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺨﺭﺠﺎﺕ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻴﻁﺔ ﺒﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﻴﻑ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺀﻤﺔ ﻤﻌﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺭ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﻝﻠﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺘﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻤﺤﺼﻠﺔ ﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺨﻀﻌﺕ ﻷﺴﺱ ﺍﺘﺒﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﺭﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻭﻓﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﻝﻨﻭﻉ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻤﺜل ﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺍﺤﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻹﻫﺘﻼﻙ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺘﺴﻌﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‪...‬ﺍﻝﺦ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺴﻤﺤﺕ ﺒﺘﻌﺩﺩ ﺒﺩﺍﺌل ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻨﺴﺠﻡ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻴﻁﺔ ﺒﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺘﺴﺘﻐل ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺘﺭﻏﺏ ﺒﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﻌل ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻝﻠﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒﻠﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻬﺎﺌﻲ ﻝﻠﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﻭﺍﻝﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻠﻭﻜﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﻗﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﺍﺌل ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺴﺒﺒﻴﻪ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻝﻠﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻁﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﻝﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺒﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻤﻜﺎﺴﺏ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻝﻬﺎ ﻭﻝﻠﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻗﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻷﻁﺭﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﺒﺭﺯ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﻝﺘﺭﺸﻴﺩﻫﻡ ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻭﻋﻴﻬﻡ ﺒﺩﻻﻻﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻬﻡ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭ‪ .‬ﺃﻥ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﻝﻴﺴﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻓﻬﻲ ﻗﺩﻴﻤﺔ ﻤﻨﺫ ﻨﺸﺄﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺜﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻜل ﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺨﺘﺎﺭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻨﺎﺴﺒﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺍﻨﺤﺼﺭﺕ ﺍﻻﻋﻤﺎل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺔ ﺒﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﻥ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻭﻤﺎ ﺼﺎﺤﺒﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻨﺩﻤﺎﺝ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻴﺤﻀﻰ ﺒﻘﺒﻭل ﻋﺎﻡ ﻴﻘﻠل‬
‫ﺍﻻﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻴﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﺭﻗﺎﺕ ﻭﻝﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻝﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻝﻠﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻝﻘﺩ‬
‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺕ ﺍﻋﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﻭﺴﻌﺕ ﻭﺘﻌﻘﺩﺕ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺍﻜﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﺴﺘﺠﻴﺏ ﻝﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺘﻤﺎﺭﺱ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺒﺄﺘﺒﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﺍﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﻭﺍﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻝﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺒﺎﻻﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻭﺍﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﻁﻠﺤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺩﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺒﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺩﺨﻠﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﻁﻠﺤﺎﺕ ﻤﺼﻁﻠﺢ ﺘﺠﻤﻴل ﺍﻝﺩﺨل )‪ (Income Smoothing‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﺘﺩﺨل ﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﻠﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻨﻤﻭﻩ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻘﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻝﻠﺸﺭﻜﺔ)‪ ، (Belkaoui, 2004, P.450‬ﻭﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻴﻴﻥ ﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﻁﻠﺤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺒﺄﻭﺠﻪ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﺃﺨﺫ ﻭﻗﺩﻤﻭﺍ ﺨﻼل ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻬﻡ ﻭ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻬﻡ‬
‫ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺭﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﺃﺒﺭﺯﻫﺎ ﻤﺎ ﻗﺩﻤﻪ ﺠﺭﻓﻠﺜﺯ )‪ (Grifliths‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،1986‬ﺇﺫ ﻋﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺒﺩﺍﻋﻴﺔ)‪ (Creative Accounting‬ﺒﺄﻨﻬﺎ "ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﺎﺭﺴﻬﺎ ﻤﻨﺸﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺤﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻡ ﺘﺸﻜﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻫﺎﺩﺉ‪ ،‬ﺒﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺨﻔﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻝﻔﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺠﺭﺍﺌﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻋﺘﺒﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺨﺩﺍﻉ ﻜﺒﺭﻯ )‪ .(Griftiths, 1986,1‬ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﻋﺭﻓﻬﺎ ) ‪(Blake, et al.,‬‬
‫‪ 2000, PP: 136-137‬ﺒﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻤﺩﺭﻭﺱ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﻥ ﻝﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻝﻠﺘﻼﻋﺏ‬
‫) ‪Bolkaoui, 2004, p.‬‬ ‫ﻼ ﻝﻬﺎ ﻭ ﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺠﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﻠﺨﺎﻭﻱ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻌﻁﻲ ﺍﻨﻁﺒﺎﻋﹰﺎ ﻤﻔﻀ ﹰ‬
‫‪ (59‬ﺇﻥ ﻤﺼﻁﻠﺢ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺒﺩﺍﻋﻴﺔ ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺒﺎﻝﺼﺤﺎﻓﺔ؛ ﻝﻴﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻝﺸﻙ ﻭﺍﻻﺭﺘﻴﺎﺏ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺏ‪ ،‬ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻓﻀل ﻤﻤﺎ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺃﺼﻼ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺇﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﻭﻴل ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻭﻀﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺎ ﺘﺭﻏﺏ ﺒﻪ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺩﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺼﻁﻠﺢ ﺍﻝﻐﺵ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ‬
‫)‪ ،(Fraudulent Reporting‬ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺒﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩ ﺒﺘﺤﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻝﻠﺸﺭﻜﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺃﺜﺭﺓ ﻤﺎﺩﻴﺎ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻌﺩﻱ )‪ (Violation‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺤﻭ ﻻ ﺘﺴﻤﺢ ﺒﻪ‬
‫)‪ .(Weidman, 1999‬ﻭﺒﺭﺯ ﻤﺼﻁﻠﺢ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ )‪ ،(Management Earnings‬ﺇﺫ ﻋﺭ‪‬ﻓﻪ ﺴﻜﻭﺕ‬
‫)‪ (Scott, 2003, P.369‬ﺃﻨﻪ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﺭ ﻝﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻋﺭ‪‬ﻓﻬﺎ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬
‫ﻫﻴﻠﻲ ﻭﻭﻴﻠﻴﻥ )‪ (Healy&Wahlen, 1999, P. 368‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺩﺨﹼل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺘﻌﺩﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻝﺘﻀﻠﻴل ﺒﻌﺽ ﺫﻭﻱ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ )‪ (Stakeholders‬ﺤﻭل ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻝﻠﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺎﻗﺩﺓ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻤﻁﺭ )ﻤﻁﺭ‪ ،1997 ،‬ﺹ‪ (116 .‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﻥ ﻤﺼﻁﻠﺢ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﻼﻗﺔ ﻴﻤﺜل‬
‫ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻠﺠﺎ ﺇﻝﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺴﻌﻴ ﹰﺎ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﺼﻭﺭﻱ )ﻏﻴﺭ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ( ﻓﻲ ﺭﺒﺤﻴﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻤﺭﻜﺯﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﺴﺘﻐﻼل ﺍﻝﺜﻐﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﺍﺠﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺘﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﺍﺌل ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻅﻬﺭﻫﺎ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻸﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺃﻭ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻝﻠﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺘﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻡ ﻝﻭﺼﻑ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺇﻅﻬﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻝﻤﻨﺸﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺼﺎﺩﻗﺔ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻔﻀﺎﺌﺢ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺸﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﻤﺜل ﺇﻨﺭﻭﻥ ‪ ،Enron‬ﻭﻭﺭﻝﺩﻜﻭﻡ‬
‫‪ ،Worldcom‬ﻭﻫﺎﺭﻜﻥ ‪ ،Harkin‬ﻭﻤﺭﻴل ﺍﻨﺩﻴﻜﻭﺍ ‪ Merill Endico‬ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻕ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺼﻁﻠﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﻭﺍﻝﻐﺵ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺒﺩﺍﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺨل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻤﺩﻱ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﻤﺩﻝﻭل ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺠﻌل ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺨﻼﻓﹰﺎ ﻝﻸﺼﻭل ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻏﺎﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻝﻠﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺌﻬﺎ ﻜﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻀﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﺘﻜﺎﻝﻴﻑ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪..........‬ﺍﻝﺦ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻕ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻗﻭﺍﺴﻡ ﻤﺸﺘﺭﻜﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﻁﻠﺤﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺒﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺘﺩﺨﻠﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻠﺨﻴﺼﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻻﺘﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺸﻜل ﺘﺩﺨل ﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻬﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻴﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻗﻴﻡ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺜﻐﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻗﺎﻨﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺒﻘﻴﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺎﺭﻑ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻗﺎﻨﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺨﺭﺠﺕ ﻋﻥ ﺇﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺎﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﺘﺩﺨل ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﻝﺩﻴﻬﺎ ﻗﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻬﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻤﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺒﺎﻝﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻜﺎ ﺘﺭﻏﺏ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺘﺭﻴﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -5‬ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺇﺤﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻓﺎﺌﺩﺘﻬﺎ ﻝﻐﺭﺽ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻻﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -6‬ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -7‬ﻴﻌﺩ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻤل ﻏﻴﺭ ﺃﺨﻼﻗﻲ ﻴﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﻀﻠﻴل‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻝﺙ‪ :‬ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﻠﺘﺩﺨل ﺒﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‬
‫ﻝﻘﺩ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺕ ﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﻀﻌﻴﺔ ﺒﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﻀﻠﻴل ﺍﻻﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ)ﻜﺎﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ‪،‬ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻘﺭﻀﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺩﺍﺌﻨﻴﻴﻥ‪ (...‬ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺨﻔﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﺭﻓﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺱ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒﻠﻬﻡ‪ .‬ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﻌﺩ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﺤﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻝﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﺘﺱ ﻭﺯﻴﻤﺭﻤﺎﻥ)‪(Watts and Zimmerman, 1978‬‬
‫ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ)ﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ( ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺒﺄﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻝﻠﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ﻤﻨﻔﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﺎﻷﺠﻭﺭ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻜﺎﻓﺄﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﻭﺯﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﻬﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻌﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺍﺘﺱ ﻭﺯﻴﻤﺭﻤﺎﻥ ﺭﻜﻨﹰﺎ ﺍﺴﺎﺴﻴﺎ ﻝﺒﻠﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ‬
‫ﺭﺒﻁﺕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺘﺩﺍﺨﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻥ ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﺍﻝﺠﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺩﻩ ﻝﻠﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ‪ .‬ﺴﻜﻭﺕ‬
‫)‪ (scott,2003.p.368‬ﻭﻭﺍﺘﺱ ﺯﻴﻤﺭﻤﺎﻥ )‪ (Watts and Zimmerman, 1990‬ﻗﺩ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺩﺨﻠﻴﻥ ﻝﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺩﺨﻠﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻫﻤﺎ ‪ :‬ﻤﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﻤﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻗﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻜﻼ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺨﻠﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺩﺒﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﺸﺭﺡ ﻭﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻗﺩﺍﺕ ﻴﻨﻅﺭﺍﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻜﺎﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻜﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﺍﺌﻨﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ‪. .‬ﺍﻝﺦ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻘﻭﺩ‬
‫ﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﺍﻻﻁﺭﺍﻑ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻨﺸﺄ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﻜل ﻁﺭﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ﻤﻨﻔﻌﺘﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻗﺩﺍﺕ ﻴﻔﺴﺭ ﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻗﺩﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﻬﺭﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻹﻴﻔﺎﺀ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﺯﻤﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻗﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻝﺘﺘﺠﻨﺏ ﺍﻻﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻝﻠﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻝﻼﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻯ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻤﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻔﺴﺭ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻭﺼﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻼﺀﻤﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺎﻻﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﻷﺩﺍﺌﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻔﻌﻠﻲ‬
‫)‪ .(Holthausen,1990‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻫﻡ ﻤﺎ ﻗﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺨل ﺍﻻﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻔﻜﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻴﻔﺴﺭ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺘﺠﺎﻩ‬
‫ﺒﺩﺍﺌل ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻝﺘﻜﺎﻝﻴﻑ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺈﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫)‪ (Athanasaken, et al, 2009‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﺒﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻝﻠﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺼﻨﻴﻔﻬﺎ ﻝﻠﻤﺼﺎﺭﻴﻑ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺃﺠﺭﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺜﺎﻥ )‪ (Cheng and Warfield, 2005‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ‪Equity Incentives and Earnings :‬‬
‫‪Management‬ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻭﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻝﺩﻴﻬﺎ ﺨﻁﻁ ﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﻝﻠﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻝﺩﻴﻬﻡ ﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻓﺘﺭﻀﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﻝﺩﻴﻬﻡ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﻤﻠﻙ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﺩﻴﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻝﺒﻴﻌﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻨﻬﻡ ﻴﻘﻭﻤﻭﻥ ﺒﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺔ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻗﻴﺔ ﻷﺴﻬﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪.‬ﻭﺨﻠﺼﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻝﺩﻴﻬﺎ ﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ ﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﻝﻠﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺤﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻤﻁﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻝﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﻗﺭﻴﺒﺔ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻝﻤﺩﻴﺭﻱ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﻝﺩﻴﻬﻡ ﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ ﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺒﺒﻴﻊ ﺃﺴﻬﻤﻬﻡ ﺒﻌﺩ ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻠﺔ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﻝﺩﻴﻬﻡ ﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ ﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻝﺩﻴﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻝﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻝﺩﻴﻬﺎ ﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ ﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﻝﻠﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺤﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ‪ ،‬ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻻ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻝﺩﻴﻬﺎ ﺨﻁﻁ ﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ ﻝﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺜﺎﻥ ﻫﺎﻨﻕ ﻭﻭﺍﻨﻕ )‪ (Hang and Wang, 1998‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺘﺸﻜل ﺩﺍﻓﻌﹰﺎ‬
‫ﻝﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﻠﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺒﺄﺭﺒﺎﺤﻬﺎ ﻝﺘﺘﺠﻨﺏ ﺭﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻔﻌل ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻴﻨﻅﺭ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻜﺎﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﺒﻊ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒﻠﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ‬
‫ﻤﺎ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺘﻪ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻭﺍﻝﻐﺎﺯ ﺇﺒﺎﻥ ﻏﺯﻭ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺍﻕ ﻝﻠﻜﻭﻴﺕ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،1990‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻝﻐﺯﻭ ﺒﺎﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬
‫ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻝﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻝﻜﻥ ﺃﺜﺒﺘﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺘﺠﻨﺒ ﹰﺎ ﻝﻠﻀﻐﻭﻁﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺩﺨﻼﺕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻔﺭﺽ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻜﻠﻑ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺠﺎﺀ ﻤﻨﺴﺠﻤ ﹰﺎ ﻤﻊ ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻴﻥ ﻗﺎﺒﻠﻪ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺒﺄﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺠﻭﺩﻓﺭﻱ ﻭﺠﻭﻨﺯ)‪ (Godfrey and Jones, 1999‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺃﺜﺒﺘﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺤﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺘﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻨﻤﻭﻩ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻤل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﻝﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﻜﺎﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺒﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﺒﻨﻭﺩ‬
‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺭﺍﻑ ﺒﺘﻭﻗﻴﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﻭﺴﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻗل ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺤﻬﺎ ﺘﺠﻨﺏ ﺍﻝﻀﻐﻭﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻁﺎﻝﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﺒﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﻤﻘﺩﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻓﻊ‬
‫ﺃﺠﻭﺭﻫﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺠل ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺎﺘﻬﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻪ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻓﻌﺎل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺩ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻀﻐﻭﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﻴﻤﺎﻭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﺭﻀﻪ ﻝﻠﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻬﺩﻑ ﻝﻠﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻼﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻝﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻴﻁﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺒﺎﻹﻓﺼﺎﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‬
‫)‪ (Environmental Disclosure‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺘﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺒﺄﺭﺒﺎﺤﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﻝﺘﺨﻔﻴﻀﻪ ﻜﺎﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺸﺭﻜﺔ‬
‫ﻝﻠﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻀﻐﻭﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ )‪.(Patten and Trempeter, 2003‬‬
‫ﺍﻤﺎ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ )‪ (Field, et al., 2001‬ﺒﻴﻨﻭﺍ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﺩﺨل ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻫﻭ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺏﺀ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﻴﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﺇﻥ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻤل ﺃﻥ ﻴﺤﻔﺯ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﻔﺭﺽ ﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ‬
‫ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻻﺤﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﺍﺌﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺭﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺤﻔﺯ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻭﺭﺓ ﺒﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﻝﻠﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﺫﻝﻙ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﻓﺭ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﻴﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺘﺤﻘﻘﻪ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﻻ ﺘﺭﻏﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻔﻘﺩﻩ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺘﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻩ ﺒﺄﻨﺸﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪ ،‬ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﺨﺘﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺫﻝﻙ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺠﺫﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺘﻭﺠﻴﻬﻬﺎ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﻼﺯﻡ ﻝﻠﻔﻌﺎﻝﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﺩﺍﻭل ﺃﻭﺭﺍﻗﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺘﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺩﺍﻭﻝﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻭﺍﺌﺩﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﻀﻴل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﻠﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﻔﺎﻀﻠﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻭﻋﻭﺍﺌﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺘﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺎﻗﺒﺔ ﻭﺘﺘﺠﻨﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ )‪.(Field, et al., 2001‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺒﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺴﻬﻤﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻴﺤﻔﺯﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻨﻤﻭﻫﺎ ﻝﻠﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻫﻡ‬
‫ﻝﻼﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻝﻸﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺃﻭ ﻝﻠﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﺒﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻨﻅﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﻝﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻜﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﻝﻠﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﺒﺎﻹﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻓﺎﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻭﻥ ﻴﺘﺠﻨﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺤﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻤﺘﻘﻠﺒﺔ )‪(Beidleman, 1973‬‬
‫ﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺩﻋﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻻﺴﺘﻐﻼل ﻨﻔﻘﺎﺕ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻬﻴﻜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻘﺩ ﺒﻴﻥ )‪ (Moehrle, 2002‬ﺃ ‪‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﻨﻬﻡ ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻭﻨﻬﺎ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﻭﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻝﻤﻘﺎﺒﻠﺔ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ ﻝﻸﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻗﺭﻴﺒﺔ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻝﺘﺠﻨﺏ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻝﺘﺠﻨﺏ ﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻠﺨﻴﺹ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﺘﺩﺨﻠﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﺒﺎﻻﺘﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻻ‪ :‬ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺘﻌﺎﻗﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻱ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﻻﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻗﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺫﻝﻙ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻭ ﹰ‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﺍﻝﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻝﻼﺩﺍﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻝﺘﺎﻜﻴﺩ ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﻨﺠﺎﺤﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬
‫ﺨﻁﻁ ﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯﻫﺎ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ﻤﻨﺎﻓﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﺎﻝﻤﻜﺎﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺠﻭﺭ ﻭﺍﻻﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﻅﻴﻔﻲ‬
‫ﻝﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺸﺭﻭﻁ ﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﻠﺘﺩﺨل ﻝﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻭﻁ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﻴﺩﺓ ﻝﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﺴﻌﻲ ﻝﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻜﻠﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﺭﻭﻀﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺭﻀﻴﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﹰﺎ‪ -‬ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﻀﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﺘﺨﻔﻴﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻭ ﻝﻠﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺭﻏﺏ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻝﺜﹰﺎ‪ -‬ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺘﺸﺭﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻤﻁﺎﻝﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺸﺭﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻝﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﺠﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻭﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﻋﻤﻠﻬﻡ ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﻝﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﻴﺘﻬﺎﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‪.‬‬
‫ﺭﺍﺒﻌ ﹰﺎ‪ -‬ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻝﻠﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻠﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﺴﻬﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺘﺤﺴﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻘﺎﺒﻠﺔ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺒﻊ‪ :‬ﺃﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻌﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﺨﻼﺼﺔ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ‬
‫ﻴﺨﻀﻊ ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩﻫﺎ ﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﻭﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻌﺎﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺘﺤﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻭﻗﻴﺎﺴﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﺠﻤﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﻭﻋﺭﻀﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻓﺈﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩﻫﺎ ﻭﻤﺤﺘﻭﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺘﺨﺘﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﻹﻅﻬﺎﺭ ﻤﺭﻜﺯﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﺒﺄﻓﻀل ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺇﻥ‪ ‬ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻭﻀﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﹰﺍ ﻝﻤﺎ ﻝﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺎﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻭﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻘﺭﻀﻭﻥ ﻭﺍﻷﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺤﺕ ﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﻭﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻐﻠﺔ ﺒﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻝﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﺃﻏﺭﺍﻀﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻻ ﻴﺘﻨﺎﻓﻰ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻅﺎﻫﺭ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺒﻭﻝﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻀﻠل ﻭﺘﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺒﺎﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺇﻅﻬﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺒﺸﻜل‬
‫ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻻ ﻴﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺸﻜﻭﻙ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺠﻬﺔ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺘﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺒﺎﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻝﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﻝﻠﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﻀﻪ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺘﻪ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻨﻤﻭﻩ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﻴﻌﻁﻲ ﺍﻨﻁﺒﺎﻋ ﹰﺎ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻴﺩﻓﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻘﻕ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻝﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ‬
‫ﻝﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻜﻠﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻭﺸﺭﻭﻁﻪ‪ ،‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻜﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺘﻌﻁﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﺯﻥ ﺍﻷﻜﺒﺭ ﻝﻘﻴﻡ ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪ ،‬ﻝﻤﻌﺭﻓﺘﻬﺎ ﺒﺄﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺃﺩﺍﺌﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﺤﺎﻭل‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺘﻘﻠل ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺘﻪ ﻝﻠﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺘﻪ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻨﻤﻭﻩ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﻭﺃﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻹﻅﻬﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻥ ﺘﻘﻠﻴل‬
‫ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻝﻠﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﻴﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻭﻑ ﻝﺩﻯ ﺍﻷﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﺘﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺇ ‪‬‬
‫ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﻗﺩ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻱ ﻝﻠﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺒﻘﺼﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺭﻜﺯﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺒﻴ‪‬ﻥ )ﺍﻝﺠﻬﻤﺎﻨﻲ‪ (2001 ،‬ﺃﻥ ﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺘﺠﻤﻴل ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻻ‪ :‬ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﻤﻴل ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ )‪ (Naturally Smoothing‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﻭﻝﻴﺩ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﻱ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﻤﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩ )‪ (Intentionally Smoothing‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺘﻨﻘﺴﻡ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﻗﺴﻤﻴﻥ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﺠﻤﻴل ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ )‪ (Real Smoothing‬ﻭﻴﻤﺜل ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺭﺍﻫﺎ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻬﻴﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫‪-1‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﺸﺎﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺒﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺩﺨل ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺘﺭﻏﺏ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﺠﻤﻴل ﺼﻭﺭﻱ )‪ (Artificial Smoothing‬ﻭﻴﻤﺜل ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ‬ ‫‪-2‬‬
‫ﺸﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺒﺎﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺘﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺒﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻤﺘﻨﻭﻋﺔ ﻭﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﻐﻼﻝﻬﺎ ﻝﻠﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ ﻜﺎﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺇﻫﺘﻼﻙ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺘﺴﻌﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺍﺤﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺼﺼﺎﺕ ﻜﻤﺨﺼﺹ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﺼﻴﻠﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺨﺼﺹ ﺍﻝﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ‪.....‬ﺍﻝﺦ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﺎﻝﺘﺠﻤﻴل ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻴﻤﺜل ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻷﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜﺎل‬
‫ﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺒﺘﻭﻗﻴﺕ ﺤﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻜﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺘﺄﺨﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﻤﻴل ﺍﻝﻭﻫﻤﻲ ﻓﻴﻤﺜل ﺘﺩﺨل‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺘﻼﻋﺒﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻭﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻜﺎﻝﻴﻑ ﻤﻥ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﻻ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺒﻴ‪‬ﻥ ﻜﻭﺒﻼﻨﺩ )‪ (Copeland, 1968‬ﺃﻥ ﺘﺠﻤﻴل ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﻫﻭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻤﺘﻜﺭﺭ ﻝﻠﻤﻘﺎﻴﻴﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻫﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻏﻭﺏ ﺒﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺤﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ‬
‫ﻝﻘﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺒﻨﻤﻁ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﺒﺎﻝﺩﺨل ﻗﻠﻴ ﹰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺠﺏ ﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﻭﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﻠﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻜﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﺃﻱ ﺍﻝﺘﺯﺍﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺃﻥ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﻜﻡ ﻤﻬﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺘﻔﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺒﻭﻝﺔ ﻗﺒﻭﻻ ﻋﺎﻤﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﺎﺩﻱ )ﻓﺭﻭﻗﺎﺕ( ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﻤﻥ ﺴﻨﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﻓﻘﻁ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﺃﺭﺼﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -5‬ﺃﻥ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﻤﻨﻔﺭﺩﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﺭﺍﺒﻁ ﻤﻊ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺎﻗﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ ﺍﻝﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﺭﻜﺯﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﻤﻴل ﺍﻝﺼﻭﺭﻱ ﻝﻠﺩﺨل )‪ (Artificial‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﻻ ﺘﺸﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻷﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻐﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﺭﻜﺯﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﻝﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﻭﻻ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل‬
‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺒﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﻌﻠﻤﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻷﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺘﻤﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺨﺒﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺩﺍﻓﻊ ﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﻭﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒﻠﻬﺎ ﻭﻗﺩ ﺒﻴ‪‬ﻥ ﺒﺎﺭﻨﺎ ﻭﺍﺨﺭﻭﻥ‬
‫)‪ (Barnea, et al., 1976‬ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﻠﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻭﻗﻴﺕ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻷﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺭﺍﻑ ‪(Through events occurrence and/ or‬‬
‫)‪ recognition‬ﺃﻱ ﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﻓﻲ ﺘﻭﻗﻴﺕ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻘﻠل ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﺨل‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻐﺎﻝﺏ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻤﺨﻁﻁﻪ ﻤﺴﺒﻘﺎ ﻝﺘﻭﻗﻴﺕ ﺍﻷﺤﺩﺍﺙ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜل‪ :‬ﻤﺼﺎﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺼﻴﺎﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻹﻋﻼﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻝﻸﺤﺩﺍﺙ )‪ (Through allocation over time‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺘﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺤﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺒﺫﻝﻙ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜﺎل ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺭﺴﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﺎﻝﻴﻑ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺭﺴﻤﻠﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻝﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺍﻹﻫﺘﻼﻙ ﻝﻸﺼﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻁﻔﺎﺀ ﺘﻜﺎﻝﻴﻑ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ )‪ (Through Classification‬ﺃﻱ ﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﻠﺘﺩﺨل ﺒﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻜﺭﺭﺓ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﻜﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﻋﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻋﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﺭﺘﻭﻑ )‪ (Bartov, 1993‬ﺒﺩﺍﺭﺴﺘﻪ ﺒﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ ‪The Timing of Assets and‬‬
‫‪ Earnings Manipulation‬ﺇﻥ ﻤﺩﻴﺭﻭ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻴﻠﺠﺎﺅﻥ ﻝﻠﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺒﺎﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻭﻗﻴﺕ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺭﺍﻑ ﺒﺩﺨل‬
‫ﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﻐﻼل ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﺘﺩﺨﻠﻬﻡ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻬﺎﺯﻱ ﺒﺘﻭﻗﻴﺕ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺭﺍﻑ ﺒﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒﻠﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺩﻑ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺩ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺘﺠﻤﻴل‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ )‪ (Earnings- smoothing hypotheses‬ﻭﻓﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ‪(debt-‬‬
‫)‪ equity hypotheses‬ﻝﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺒﺎﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻭﺘﻨﺹ ﻫﺎﺘﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺘﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﻝﻠﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺒﺄﺭﺒﺎﺤﻬﺎ ﻝﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬

‫• ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺘﺠﻤﻴل ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ‪ :‬ﺘﻨﺹ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃ ‪‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻅﻬﺭﻩ ﺤﻭل ﻤﺴﺘﻭﺍﻩ ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺘﻨﺹ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﻝﻠﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺒﺄﺭﺒﺎﺤﻬﺎ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ‬
‫ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺘﻜﺎﻝﻴﻑ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺸﺭﻭﻁﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺒﻴﻨﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺘﺅﺨﺫ ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺨﻁﻁ ﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ )‪.(Bonus plan‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﻴﺒﻲ)‪.(Tax effects‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺍﻭل )‪.(current ratio‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﻜﺩ )‪ (McNichols and stubben,2008‬ﺃﻥ ﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺘﺩﺨﻠﻬﺎ ﺒﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺘﺸﻭﻴﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺫﻜﺭ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﺃﻥ ﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺤﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻠﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺩﺕ ﻭﺴﺎﺌل‬
‫ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺘﻨﺎﻭﺭ ﺒﺎﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﻭﻗﻴﺕ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺭﺍﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻝﻸﺤﺩﺍﺙ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺼﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﺩﺍﺌل ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﻻ ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﺃﻱ ﺍﻝﺘﺯﺍﻡ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺒﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﺘﺒﻊ ﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﻓﻘﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل‬
‫ﺤﺴﺏ ﻤﺎ ﺘﺭﺍﻩ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺎ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻓﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﺒﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺘﻪ ﻝﻠﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻓﺘﻤﺜل ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺘﺒﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻤﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺨﻁﻁ ﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ ﻝﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻤﺎ ﻴﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺒﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺘﻜﺎﻝﻴﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻭﺸﺭﻭﻁﻪ ﺃﻭ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻝﻠﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻗﻴﺔ ﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺃﺠﺭﻴﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒﻠﻬﺎ ﻝﻠﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻏﺒﺔ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Changes Accounting‬‬ ‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺩﻴﺔ ‪Classification of Extraordinary Items‬‬
‫‪Provisions Restructuring‬‬ ‫‪ -3‬ﺘﻜﻭﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺼﺼﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺴﻨﺘﻨﺎﻭل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﻀﻴﻊ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻔﺼﻴل‪.‬‬
‫ﻻ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺩﺨﻠﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‬
‫ﻝﻠﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺘﺴﺘﻐل ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻝﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﻤﺎ ﺘﺴﻤﺢ ﺒﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺒﻴ‪‬ﻥ ﺸﺭﻭﻴﺩﺭ )‪ (Schroeder, et al., 2003, pp:102-104‬ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﻨﺎﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺭﺃﻱ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ )‪ (APB‬ﺭﻗﻡ ﻋﺸﺭﻭﻥ‪ ،‬ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﺤﺩﺩ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﻝﻠﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ (Change in an Accounting Principle) :‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ‬

‫ﻑ ﻝﻤﺒﺩﺃ ﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﻭﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺸﺎﺓ ﻤﺜﺎل ﺫﻝﻙ‪:‬‬
‫ﻻ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺨﺎﻝ ‪‬‬
‫ﻴﺤﺩﺙ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﺘﺘﺒﻨﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻤﺒﺩﺃ ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴ ﹰﺎ ﻤﻘﺒﻭ ﹰ‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺒﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺘﺴﻌﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ ﻜﺎﻝﺘﺤﻭل ﻤﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ )‪ (LIFO‬ﺇﻝﻰ )‪.(FIFO‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺒﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻹﻫﺘﻼﻙ ﻜﺎﻝﺘﺤﻭل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺴﻁ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﺒﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻹﻫﺘﻼﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺴﺎﺭﻉ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺭﺠﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻜﺎﺴﺏ ﻭﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﺭﺠﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ )‪ (Change in an Accounting Estimate‬ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺘﻀﻤﻥ‬

‫ﻱ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺴﺒﻕ ﻭﺇﻥ ﻭﻀﻊ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻼﺤﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻻ‬
‫ﺃ ‪‬‬
‫ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺩﺃ ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻗﺎﺌﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻨﺫﻜﺭ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻝﻸﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺼل ﻜﺨﺭﺩﺓ ﺒﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﺭﻩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻝﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ ﻝﻠﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻝﻼﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺩﻋﺎﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻘﻀﺎﺌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﺎﺤﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﻤﺨﺼﺹ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻭﻙ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺇﻨﺠﺎﺯ ﻋﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻹﻨﺸﺎﺀ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ )‪ (Change in reporting entity‬ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻋﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻭ ﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻋﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻤﺞ ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ )‪ (Consolidation‬ﺃﻭ ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ )‪ (Subsidiaries‬ﺃﻭ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺩﻤﺠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻤﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﻝﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ )ﺍﻝﺠﻬﻤﺎﻨﻲ‪ (2001 ،‬ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﻝﺠﻭﺀ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﻠﻤﻭﺱ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻥ ﺘﺒﻨﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬

‫ﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺍﺜﺭ ﻤﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﻠﻤﻭﺱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈ ‪‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﺇ ‪‬‬
‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻭﺒﺎﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻭﻗﻴﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺴﺏ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺘﺤﺩﺩﻩ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺩﻓﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺤﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﻻ ﻨﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻋﻤل ﺃﻱ ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻴﺄﺨﺫ ﺒﻌﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺼﺭﻑ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‬
‫ﻭﻓﺼﻠﻪ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻋﺎﺩﻴﺎﹰ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﺒﻔﺤﺹ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﺕ ﻜﺄﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻝﺘﻤﻬﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻨ ‪‬ﻪ ﻴﺤﺎﻭل ﻓﺼل ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺠﺯﺌﻴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺠﺯﺀ ﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻋﻥ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺠﺯﺀ ﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬
‫ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﻻ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺙ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﺘﻜﻭﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺼﺼﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻋﺭﻓﺕ ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ )‪ (IAS‬ﺒﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ )‪(37‬ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺼﺼﺎﺕ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺅﻜﺩﺓ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻭﻭﻗﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺭﺍﻑ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺤﻘﻘﺕ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻭﻁ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺭﺘﺒﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺃﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺘﻀﻤﻨﺕ ﺘﻀﺨﻴﻤﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻝﺘﺴﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻻﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻻ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻤﻌ ‪‬ﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﻬﺩﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺼﺼﺎﺕ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻓﻬﻲ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻝﻠﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺼﺹ ﺘﺅﺨﺫ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻝﻤﺒﻠﻎ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺩﺭ ﻝﻠﻤﺨﺼﺹ ﻭﺍﻝﻅﺎﻫﺭ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺃﻓﻀل ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺒﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﺓ ﻭﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﺘﺅﺨﺫ ﺒﺎﻝﺤﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺼﺹ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺘﺴﺠﻴل ﺍﻻﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻝﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺼﺹ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﻐﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺃﻨﺸﻰﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠﻠﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺼﺼﺎﺕ‪:‬ﻤﺨﺼﺹ ﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﻜﻭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﺼﻴﻠﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺨﺼﺹ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻬﻴﻜﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺨﺼﺹ‬
‫ﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺨﺼﺹ ﺼﻴﺎﻨﺔ ﻭﻗﻁﻊ ﻏﻴﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺨﺼﺹ ﻤﻜﺎﻓﺂﺕ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺩﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺼﺼﺎﺕ ﺇﺤﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﺒﺎﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻴﺨﻀﻊ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻝﻠﺤﻜﻡ ﺍﻝﺸﺨﺼﻲ‪ ،‬ﺘﻤﻨﺢ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺃﺤﺩ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻝﻠﻤﻨﺎﻭﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻤﻁﻠﻭﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺼﺼﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺃﺩﺍﺅﻫﺎ ﻀﻌﻴﻔﺎﹰ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺠﻴﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﺸﺎﺭ ﺒﻠﺨﺎﻭﻱ )‪ (Bolkaoui,2004,p.59‬ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺩﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻝﻠﺘﻼﻋﺏ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﺜل‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺘﺴﺠﻴل ﺍﻴﺭﺍﺩ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻜﺘﺴﺎﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺨﻠﻕ ﺍﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺼﻭﺭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻤﻨﺎﻗﻠﺔ ﻤﺼﺎﺭﻴﻑ ﻤﻥ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﺨﺭﻯ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺃﻭ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﺴﺠﻴل ﻝﻼﻝﺘﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺭﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻤﻨﺎﻗﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺩﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻝﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺍﻻﺼﻭل‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻴﻡ ﻭﺤﺠﺏ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺭﻭﺴﻨﺭ )‪ (Rosner, 2003‬ﺒﺄﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻀﻌﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ )ﺍﻝﻤﻔﻠﺴﺔ( ﻗﺩ‬
‫ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺩﻻﺌل ﻤﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻗﺒل ﺇﻓﻼﺴﻬﺎ )ﻜﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺤﻬﺎ( ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﻠﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫل ﺃﺩﺭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻘﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﻝﻐﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ؟‬
‫ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺒﺎﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ )ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﺭﺒﺎﺡ( ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻌﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺘﻀﺨﻴﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻨﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺤﻘﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺘﻀﺨﻴﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺘﻠﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻌﺩﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﺘﻀﺨﻴﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺇﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﺢ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -5‬ﺘﻀﺨﻴﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤل‪.‬‬
‫‪ -6‬ﺘﻀﺨﻴﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺨﻠﺼﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻝﻠﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﻠﺴﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﻠﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺘﻀﺨﻴﻡ ﻹﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻕ ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﻭﺍﻷﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻝﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﻠﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﻭﻤﺘﻨﻭﻋﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻝﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﻭﺭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜل ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺨﻠﻕ ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺼﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺼﺩﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻨﺸﺭ ﻗﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻀﻠﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻷﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﺘﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﻘﻴﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺒﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻻﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻻ ﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻝﻠﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺤﺩﺜﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺒل ﺇﻥ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺘﺩﺨﻠﺕ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻤﺎ ﻝﺩﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻝﺘﻌﺩﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻝﻠﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺭﻏﺏ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‬
‫ﻷﻫﺩﺍﻓﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﻻ ﺘﻌﺒﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻹﻨﺠﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻝﻠﻤﻨﺸﺎﺓ ﻭﺩﺨﻠﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺼﻭﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﺘﻤﺎﺭﺱ ﻫﺫﺓ ﺍﻻﻋﻤﺎل ﻓﻬﻲ ﺘﻤﺘﻠﻙ ﻗﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻬﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﻤﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺒﺎﻝﻘﻴﻡ ﻭﺘﺤﻭﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻝﻠﺸﻜل ﺍﻝﻲ ﺘﺭﻏﺏ ﺒﻪ ﻓﻬﻲ ﺒﺫﻝﻙ ﻻ ﺘﻌﺒﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﻫﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻝﻠﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﻨﺸﺎﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﻭﻑ ﻋﻨﺩﻩ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻝﻔﻬﻡ ﻭﺇﺩﺭﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﻭﺍﻷﻓﻌﺎل ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‪.‬ﻭﺍﻝﺴﺅﺍل ﺍﻝﻤﻁﺭﻭﺡ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﻭﺍﻝﻐﺵ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺱ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ؟‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺇﻋﻁﺎﺀ ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻝﻠﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝﻪ‪ ،‬ﻝﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﺄﻤﻭﺭﻩ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺘﻬﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺸﻴﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺱ ﻝﻌﻠﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ؛ ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺼﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﻤﻼﺀﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻭﻗﻴﺕ ﺍﻝﺠﻴﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺒﺅﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻤﻥ ﺼﺤﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺍﺘﺨﺫﺕ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﺎﹰ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻭﺜﻭﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻤﻥ ﺼﺤﺘﻬﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺤﻴﺎﺩﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺼﺩﻕ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﻗﺎﺒﻠﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻝﻠﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺴﺎﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﺃﻴﺔ ﻓﺭﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﻥ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩﻫﺎ ﻝﻠﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻡ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻓﻘﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻝﺨﺼﺎﺌﺼﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺼﺒﺢ‬
‫ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻔﻴﺩﺓ ﻭﻤﻀﻠﻠﺔ ﻝﻸﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻝﻤﺠﻤل ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﻼﺹ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻝﻠﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻴﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺁﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﺭﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺠﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺯﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل؛ ﻭﺃﻥ ﺁﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﻌﻤل ﺒﻜﻔﺎﻴﺔ‪ ,‬ﻭﺘﺸﺨﻴﺹ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻼﻋﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺱ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﻨﺎﺴﺏ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻌﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻗﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻨﺎﺩﹰﺍ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﺠﻤﻴﺩ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝﻬﺎ ﻜﺄﺴﺎﺱ ﺃﻭ ﻗﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﻝﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﻭﻁﺭﻕ ﺍﻹﺒﻼﻍ‬
‫ﻻ ﻤﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ‪ ،‬ﻴﻁﺒﻕ ﻋﻤل ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ )‪ (FASB‬ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻗﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺩ ﹰ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﺜل ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ‬
‫ﻴﻀﻤﻥ ﺩﻋﻡ ﻨﺸﺎﻁﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﻱ ﻷﻥ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺼﺎﻤﺕ ﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻭﻤﺭﺘﻜﺒﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﻠل ﻴﻭﺍﺠﻬﻭﻥ ﻤﻌﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺃﻗل‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺃﺨﻼﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎل ﻻ ﺘﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﻨﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻓﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﻤﺱ‪ :‬ﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﺩﻗﻘﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻝﻜﺸﻑ ﻏﺵ ﻭﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‬
‫ﻨﺸﺄﺕ ﻤﻬﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﻴﺎﺩﻱ ﻝﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺤﺘﻰ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺤﻭ ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻋﻲ ﻭﺤﻴﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺠﻤﻊ ﺃﺩﻝﺔ ﺍﻹﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﺍﻝﻔﺤﺹ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺘﻤﺜل‬
‫ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻷﺩﻝﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﺒﺎﻝﺩﻓﺎﺘﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﻴﻭﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﻴﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺩﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﻤﺎ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ‪ ،‬ﺜﻡ ﻴﻘﺎﺭﻥ ﻜﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﻊ ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﻤﻘﺭﺭﺓ ) ﺒﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﺃﻱ ﺃﺴﺱ ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻔﻕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺯﺍﻋﻡ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ‬
‫ﻋﺭﻀﺕ ﺒﺼﺩﻕ ﻭﺒﻌﺩﺍﻝﺔ ﻭﻻ ﺘﺘﻀﻤﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺘﺩﺨل ﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﻴﻭﻓﺭ ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼﻴل ﺍﻝﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻲ ﺘﻠﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻔﻴﺩ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ )‪. (Credibility and Reliability‬‬
‫ﺘﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﺒﻤﺩﻯ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﺒﺄﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻻﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﻹﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺃﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﻀﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﻭﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻝﻠﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻰ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻌﻘﻭﻝﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻁﻤﺌﻨﺎﻥ ﻷﻋﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﻱ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺩﺍﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺒﺘﺤﻀﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻭﻨﺸﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺨﻠﻭﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻐﺵ‪ .‬ﺘﻌﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻝﻠﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻋﻁﺎﺀ ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻤﺭﻜﺯﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻑ ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺒﺄﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺸﻴﺩﺓ ‪،‬ﻭﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻬﺩﻑ ﻴﺠﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻥ ﺘﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺼﻔﺎﺕ ﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﻤﻼﺀﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﻤﻭﺜﻭﻗﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﻗﺎﺒﻠﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻝﻠﻔﻬﻡ ﻭﻝﻠﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺴﺅﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻤل ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﺄ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺭﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﻀﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﺤﺩﻭﺡ )‪ (1999‬ﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻐﺵ ﻴﻨﻁﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺘﺯﻭﻴﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺘﺸﻭﻴﻪ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﺠﻼﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻭﺜﺎﺌﻕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺴﻭﺀ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺤﺫﻑ ﺍﻭ ﺇﻝﻐﺎﺀ ﺃﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﺠﻼﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻨﺩﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺴﻭﺀ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﻌﺩ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﻝﻴﺴﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻓﻬﻲ ﺘﺨﺘﺎﺭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻨﺎﺴﺒﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻫﺩﺍﻓﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻤﺎ ﺼﺎﺤﺒﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻨﺩﻤﺎﺝ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻴﺤﻀﻰ ﺒﻘﺒﻭل ﻋﺎﻡ ﻴﻘﻠل ﺍﻻﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻴﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﺭﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﻝﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻝﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻝﻠﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻝﻘﺩ ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺕ ﺍﻋﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﻭﺴﻌﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺘﻌﻘﺩﺕ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺍﻜﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﺴﺘﺠﻴﺏ ﻝﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺘﻤﺎﺭﺱ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺒﺄﺘﺒﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﺍﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﻭﺍﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﻝﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﺒﺎﻻﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻭﺍﺓ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻐﺵ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻀﻠﻴل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻗﺎﻤﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻬﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻝﻤﻬﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻼ ﻭﻭﻀﻭﺤﹰﺎ ﺘﻌﻨﻰ ﺒﻭﻀﻊ ﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺩﻨﻴﺎ ﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ‪Auditing‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﺒﺈﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺘﻔﺼﻴ ﹰ‬
‫‪ Procedures‬ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻝﺘﺯﺍﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻜﺩﻝﻴل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺘﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﻝﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺎﺭﻑ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﺎ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﻪ ﻤﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ )‪ (AICPA‬ﺒﺈﺼﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (SAS No.82‬ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﻠﻕ‬
‫"ﺒﺎﻷﺨﺫ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻐﺵ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ" ﻨﻅﺭﹰﺍ ﻝﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﻀﺎﻴﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻓﻭﻋﺔ ﻀﺩ ﻤﺩﻗﻘﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻬﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻐﺵ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻀﻠﻴل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺘﻀﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺤ ﹰﺎ ﻝﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻝﻐﺵ ﻭﺍﻝﻔﺭﻕ ﺒﻴﻨﻪ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺄ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻴﻀﺎﺤﹰﺎ ﻝﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻀﻠﻴل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻔﺭﻕ ﺒﻴﻨﻪ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺇﺴﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩﹰﺍ ﻝﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﻝﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺇﻗﺭﺍﺭ‬
‫ﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻤﻀﻠل ﻭﻝﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﻝﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺴﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩﹰﺍ ﻝﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﺩﻗﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩﺓ ﻭﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻐﺵ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩﹰﺍ ﻝﻠﺤﺩ ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻰ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﺘﺒﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﻻﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻐﺵ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻀﻠﻴل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ‪(Arens and‬‬
‫)‪ .Loebbecke,2000,PP:145-148‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻭﺼﻑ )‪ (Rezaee,2005‬ﺍﻝﻐﺵ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻨﻪ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﻤﺘﻌﻤﺩ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﺨﻁﺔ ﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴﺔ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩﻫﺎ ﺒﻌﻨﺎﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻨﺸﺭ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻀﻠﻠﺔ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺨﺩﺍﻉ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﺼﺩﺭ ﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﻝﻠﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﻥ )‪ (International Federation of Accountants) (IFAC‬ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﹰﺍ‬

‫ﺨﺎﺼﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻀﻠﻴل ﻭﺍﻝﺨﻁﺄ )‪ .(IFAC,1999, 95) (ISAs No.240: Fraud and Error‬ﺤﺩﺩ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ 240‬ﻭﺍﻝﺨﺎﺹ "ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻀﻠﻴل ﻭﺍﻝﺨﻁﺄ" ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺍﺘﺒﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺄﺨﺫ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﻀﻠﻴل ﺃﻭ ﺨﻁﺄ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﻭﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻨﺎ ‪‬ﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻝﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻴل ﻤﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ‬
‫ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﻝﻠﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺄﻜﻴﺩ ﻤﻌﻘﻭل ﻤﻥ ﺨﻠﻭ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺎﺫﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻐﺵ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻨﺩ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻏﺵ ﺃﻭ ﺨﻁﺄ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺍﻷﺨﺫ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﺍﻋﺘﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻝﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻐﺵ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺄ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﺎﺩﻴﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻌﻠﻴﻪ‬
‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻼﺀﻡ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻭﻀﻊ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻋﺩل ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ 240‬ﺒﺄﻥ ﺃﻀﻴﻑ ﺇﻝﻴﻪ ﻤﻠﺤﻕ‬
‫)‪ (IASs No.240A‬ﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻲ ﻝﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﻀﻠﻴل ﻭﺍﻝﺨﻁﺄ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻓﻴﻪ ﺘﺤﻤل ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ )‪ (International Standards on Auditing) (ISAs‬ﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻨﻊ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻀﻠﻴل ﻭﺍﻝﺨﻁﺄ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻷﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻜﻔﺅﻩ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻝﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺤﺩﺴﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻤﺭﺍﺤل ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﻭﺍﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺤﻜﻤﺔ ﻤﺒﻨﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺩﻝﺔ ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﻴﺩﻋﻡ‬
‫ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﻴﻨﺎﻗﺵ ﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻤﻊ ﺯﻤﻼﺌﻪ ﻓﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﻤﺩﻯ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺨﺎﻁﺌﺔ ﻭﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻼﻋﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻥ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﻭﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﺍﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﻝﻠﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺎﻜﻴﺩﺍﺕ ﻤﻌﻘﻭﻝﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻠﻭ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻐﺵ ﻭﺍﻝﺨﺩﺍﻉ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﺍﻋﺘﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺒﺈﻥ ﻝﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻐﺵ ﻭﺍﻝﺨﻁﺄ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﺎﺩﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﺒﻡ ﻴﺘﻼﺌﻡ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻭﻀﻊ ﻭﻗﺩ ﺤﻤﻠﺕ ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻀﻠﻴل ﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﻨﺎﺀﹰﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﺇﻥ ﻤﺩﻗﻘﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﻝﺩﻴﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﻭﺍﻻﺤﻭﺍل ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺍﻥ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﻭﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺎﺀﺓ ﺤﻜﻤﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺸﺨﺼﻲ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻝﻠﻌﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺨﻀﻊ ﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﻝﻠﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺩﺨﻠﻬﺎ ﺒﺘﻭﻗﻴﺕ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻻﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻭ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺭﺍﻑ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻝﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺍﻝﻜﻔﺅ ﻴﺴﻌﻰ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻝﻠﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻝﺔ ﺇﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﺘﺜﺒﺕ ﺍﻨﻪ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﺘﺤﺭﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺨﻁﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻰ‬
‫ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻨﻪ ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻝﻠﻘﻴﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻜﺎﻤﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻻ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﺠﻨﺒﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺩﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻥ ﻴﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺘﺤﺭﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯﺍﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻐﻁﻴﻬﺎ ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺇﻻ ﺍﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻻ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﻓﺸﻠﻪ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻤﺴﻙ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺄﺤﻴﺎﻨﺎ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﺴﻙ ﺒﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻓﺎﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺩﺱ‪ :‬ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ ﻝﻤﺎ ﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﻨﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻻﺘﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻭ ﹰﻻ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺘﺭﺍﻜﻡ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺨﺎﻁﺌﺔ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺩﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﻭﺘﻜﺒﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻓﺎﺩﺤﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻭﻗﻭﻑ ﻗﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﻋﺎﺠﺯﻴﻥ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﺤﻠﻭل ﺴﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ ﺘﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻏﻴﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻭﻀﻭﺡ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻐﺎﻀﻲ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﺨﻁﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻀﺨﻴﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺠﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻭﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺨﻴﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﺴﻬﻡ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﻤﺒﺭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻭﺍﻁﺅ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺴﺅﻝﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻭﺴﻊ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺌﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻔﺴﺎﺩ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺌﻭﻝﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﺸﺎﻭﻱ ﻝﻤﺴﺌﻭﻝﻴﻥ ﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻝﺜ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﻴﻠﻌﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺴﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻔﻜﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻀﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﹰﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﻪ‬
‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﻴﺯﺓ ﻭﺤﺭﺼﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺼﻠﺤﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻭﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺨﺩﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﻤﺭﺍﻋﺎﺓ ﺒﻘﻴﺔ ﺃﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺭﺍﺒﻌ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻝﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﺨﺩﺍﻉ ﺍﻻﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﺎﻫﻡ ﺒﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺨﺎﻤﺴ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﻴﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻴﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺨﻼﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﻨﻴﺔ ﻝﻺﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﻨﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻷﻨﻅﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻴﻭﺼﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﺍﺌﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﻭﺍﻷﺤﻭﺍل‬ ‫‪-1‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻜل ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻀﻊ ﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﻭﺃﺤﻜﺎﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻬﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺸﺨﺼﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺱ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺴﻤﺢ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﻓﻘﻁ‬ ‫‪-2‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻘﺼﻭﻯ ﺸﺭﻴﻁﺔ ﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔﺍﻝﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺇﻨﺸﺎﺀ ﻝﺠﻨﺔ ﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫﻴﻴﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻬﻤﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫‪-3‬‬
‫ﺘﺭﺸﻴﺢ ﺘﻌﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺃﺘﻌﺎﺒﻪ ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﺩﻋﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﻼﻝﻴﺘﻪ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺇﺒﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺘﺼﺩﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﺩﻋﻤﻬﺎ ﻝﻠﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻀﻊ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﻭﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻝﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪-4‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺩﻋﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺭﺘﻜﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﺯﺍﻡ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻴﺩ ﺒﻘﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺤﻭﻜﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-5‬‬
‫ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﺯﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﻭﻀﻊ ﻗﻴﻭﺩﹰﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺩﺍﻭل ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﺩﺩﺓ ﺒﺎﻹﻓﻼﺱ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-6‬‬
‫ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻠﺯﻡ ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻴﺩ ﺒﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ‬ ‫‪-7‬‬
‫ﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻁﺒﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -10‬ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﻀﻊ ﻤﻴﺜﺎﻕ ﻭﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﻝﻠﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﻨﻲ ﻝﻤﻥ ﻝﻬﻡ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻠﺘﺯﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻘﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -11‬ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺨﺘﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻬﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻭﻤﻴﺔ)ﺤﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﻬﻡ( ﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻗﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﻫل ﻭﺍﻝﻜﻔﺅ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﻝﻠﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺄﻜﻴﺩ ﻤﻌﻘﻭل ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﻔﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻓﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬
‫‪ -‬ﺠﻬﻤﺎﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﺭ ﻋﻴﺴﻰ‪ " .(2001) .‬ﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺘﻤﻬﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻴﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻤﺠﻠﺩ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺒﻊ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻭل‪ ،‬ﺹ ﺹ‪.142-104 :‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻝﻘﺎﻀﻲ‪ ،‬ﺤﺴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺩﺤﺩﻭﺡ‪ ،‬ﺤﺴﻴﻥ)‪.(1999‬ﺍﺴﺎﺴﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻭﻝﻰ‪ ،‬ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﺭﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‪ -‬ﺍﻻﺭﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻤﻁﺭ‪ ،‬ﻤﺤﻤﺩ )‪ .(1997‬ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﻭﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻌﻪ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻰ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﻜﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺼﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬.(2009) ‫ ﺤﺴﻴﻥ‬،‫ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﺎﻀﻲ‬،‫ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﻋﺒﺩﺍﷲ‬،‫ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻤﻨﻲ‬-

‫ﻭﺭﻗﺔ ﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺅﺘﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﻀﺎﻴﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﻠﺤﺔ ﻝﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻴﺌﺔ‬.2008
.2009 ‫ ﻨﻴﺴﺎﻥ‬15-14‫ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺴﻴﻌﻘﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ‬.‫ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ‬
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‫ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻊ ﺇﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻝﺩﻭل ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ‬

*
‫ ﺯﻴﺩﺍﻥ ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‬.‫ﺩ‬
**
‫ ﺤﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﺒﺩ ﺍﻝﺭﺯﺍﻕ‬.‫ﺍ‬
Résumé :
Depuis le début de la crise financière actuelle (juillet 2007) jusqu'à aujourd'hui, les banques
centrales des pays du MENA sont intervenues à plusieurs reprises pour tenter d'en limiter les effets,
chacune agissant différemment.
Notre communication a pour objectif de déterminer les actions prises par las banques centrales
arabes face à la crises financière, ainsi, d’évaluer le rôle de ces banques afin de tirer des
*
.(‫ ﺍﻝﺸﻠﻑ )ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ‬،‫ ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻴﻴﺭ ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺤﺴﻴﺒﺔ ﺒﻥ ﺒﻭﻋﻠﻲ‬،‫ﺃﺴﺘﺎﺫ ﻤﺤﺎﻀﺭ‬
.(‫ ﺍﻝﺸﻠﻑ )ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ‬،‫ ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻴﻴﺭ ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺤﺴﻴﺒﺔ ﺒﻥ ﺒﻭﻋﻠﻲ‬،‫ﺃﺴﺘﺎﺫ ﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩ‬ **
www.veecos.net
‫ﺘﻤﻬﻴﺩ‪:‬‬
‫ﻴﺤﻅﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻭﻁ ﺒﺎﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺒﺄﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻐﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻝﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺸﻬﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼـﺭﻓﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻹﻋﺼﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻻ ﺘﺯﺍل ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺘﻪ ﻤﻤﺘﺩﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﺎﺩﻤﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻊ ﺍﺘﺴﺎﻉ ﺩﻭﺍﺌﺭ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺍﻝﺠﻬﺎﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﺒﺘﺴﺎﺭﻉ ﺨﻁﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﻝﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﻅـل ﻫـﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺠـﻭﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩﺕ ﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻤﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻭﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﺘﻨﺎﻭل ﻭﺭﻗﺘﻨﺎ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﺼﺭﺓ ‪ -‬ﻤﻊ ﺇﺸـﺎﺭﺓ ﻝـﺒﻌﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺼﻌﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ‪ -‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻠﻌﺏ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻫﺎﻡ ﺠﺩﺍ ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺅﻭل ﺍﻷﻭل ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﺎﺥ ﻤﻼﺌﻡ ﻭﺁﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﻭل‪ :‬ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻀﻤﻭﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﺃﺴﺒﺎﺒﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻐﺎﻝﺒﺔ ﻝﻠﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺭ ﺍﻝﺤﺩﻴﺙ ﺍﻝﻜﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺼﺭﺍﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺎﺭﻀﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻋﺎﻝﻡ ﻴﻤﺘﺩ ﻭﻴﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﻭﺘﺘﺭﺴﺦ ﺩﻋﺎﺌﻤﻪ ﻭﺘﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺘﺘﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﻤﺼﺎﻝﺤﻪ ﻴﻭﻤﺎ ﺒﻌﺩ ﻴﻭﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺩﺭ ﺍﺘﺴﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﺯﺩﻴﺎﺩﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺘﻌﺎﺭﻀﻬﺎ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻜﺎﺘﻑ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‪.i‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﻌﺒﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻜﻤﺼﻁﻠﺢ ﺒﻐﺽ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻨﻭﻋﻬﺎ ﻋﻥ ﺃﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻱ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺃﻭ ﻜﻴﺎﻥ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﺘﻨﻁﻭﻱ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩ ﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﻜﻴﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﻀﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ‪ ،ii‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﺒﺭﺯ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺭﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ )‪ (Mishkin 1996‬ﺒﺄﻨﻬﺎ "ﺍﺨﺘﻼل ﻏﻴﺭ ﺨﻁﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﺸﻜﻼﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻜﺱ∗ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ∗∗ ﻓﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻜﻑﺀ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻜﻘﻨﺎﺓ ﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺤﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ"‪.iii‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻤﺎﺜﻠﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،iv‬ﻭﻴﻘﺼﺩ ﺒﺄﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ ﻋﺠﺯ ﻭ‪/‬ﺃﻭ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺘﻬﻡ ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺩﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ )ﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ( ﺃﻭ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ )ﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ(‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻗﺩ‬
‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻷﺤﻴﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺩﻴﻥ‪.v‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻠﻌﺏ ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﻫﺎﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺼﻌﻴﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻘﺼﺩ ﺒﺎﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺒﺎﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻊ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻜﺱ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺘﺴﺒﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻗﻴﺔ ﻷﺼﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﺎﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻴﻘﻠل ﻤﻥ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺭﻀﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﻝﻼﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺘﺸﺨﻴﺹ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﺭﺠﻊ ﺒﺫﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼل ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ – ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ – ﺒﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻴﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﻴﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺴﺎﻋﺩﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﻨﻭﻝﻭﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﺼﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺜﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺼﺎﻻﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﺯﻭﻍ ﺜﺭﻭﺓ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻋﺒﺭ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺍﻝﺒﻌﺽ "ﺒﺎﻻﻨﻔﺠﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ" ﺴﺎﻋﺩﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﻪ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺘﺼﺎل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺴﺎﻋﺩﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻹﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﻨﻭﻝﻭﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﺼﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺢ ﻓﺭﺹ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺨﺭﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺘﺴﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﻓﻴﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﺩﺍﺨل ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺒﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﺩﻝﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﺹ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻤﺎﻝﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﻔﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺭﺠﻴﺢ ﻜﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‪.vi‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻨﺠﻤﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﺼﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻝﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻰ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺤﻭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘل –‬
‫ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ – ﻋﻤﺎ ﻴﺤﺩﺙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﻴﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺃﺴﺭﻓﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ – ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺃﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺎﺕ – ﺒﺄﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﻴﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻊ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺯﺍﺩ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻨﻴﻥ ﻭﺯﺍﺩ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺃﺤﺩﻫﻡ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﺩﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬
‫ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﺩﻨﺎﻩ‪:vii‬‬
‫‪ 1-3‬ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﺤﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺃﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻁﻠﻕ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﺴﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺒﺎﻝﻐﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻝﻴﺴﺕ ﻤﺠﺭﺩ ﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﻓﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﻤﺎ ﺘﺄﺨﺫ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺸﻜل ﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﻗﺎﺒﻠﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﺩﺍﻭل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﻬﻲ ﺃﺸﺒﻪ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩﺕ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ‬
‫‪ 1915‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ ‪ 2007‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ ‪ ،2008‬ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻓﻘﻁ ‪ 785‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﻴﻭﺭﻭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩﺕ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ‪ 4639‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﻴﻭﺭﻭ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻘﻁ ‪ 2426‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﻴﻭﺭﻭ ﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﺒﻭﻀﻭﺡ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻁﻠﺒﺕ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻝﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺎﻝﻤﺩﻴﻥ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻤﺘﻠﻙ ﺤﺩﺍ ﺃﺩﻨﻰ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺓ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻴﺴﺘﺩﻴﻥ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﺤﺩﺩﺕ ﻝﺠﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺎﺯل ﻓﻲ ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ‪ -‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ – ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺒﺄﻻ ﻴﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻠﻭﻙ ﻝﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﻏﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺘﺭﺍﻗﺏ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﺤﺘﺭﺍﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻨﺴﺏ ﻓﺎﻥ ﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻴﻌﺭﻑ ﺒﺎﺴﻡ ﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻻ ﻴﺨﻀﻊ ﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺘﻭﺴﻌﺕ‬
‫ﺒﻌﺽ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺴﺘﻴﻥ ﻀﻌﻑ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺒﻨﻙ ‪ ،USB‬ﻭﻝﻜﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻻ ﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﻓﻘﻁ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺠﺎﻫل ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻘﻭﻝﺔ ﻝﻠﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻜل ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺍﻜﺘﺸﻑ ﻭﺴﻴﻠﺔ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻝﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺘﺴﻤﺢ ﺒﺘﻭﻝﻴﺩ ﻤﻭﺠﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﻨﺎﺀﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺼل ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 2-3‬ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺃﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺩﺨل ﻓﻲ ﺇﻁﺎﺭ ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﻭﻝﺩﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻝﻤﺎ ﺃﻁﻠﻕ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﺼﺩﺭ ﻝﻺﻗﺭﺍﺽ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺭﻑ ﺒﺎﻝﺭﻫﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻗل ﺠﻭﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﺸﺘﺭﻱ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﻁﻥ ﺒﻴﺘﻪ ﺒﺎﻝﺩﻴﻥ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺭﻫﻥ‬
‫ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺜﻡ ﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﺤﺎﻭل ﺼﺎﺤﺏ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺭﺽ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺭﻫﻥ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﻗل ﺠﻭﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻷﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺭﻫﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﺈﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻌﺭﻀﺔ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻝﻠﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ 1.2‬ﺘﺭﻴﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،2001‬ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ‬
‫‪ 2006‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ 4‬ﺘﺭﻴﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻝﻡ ﺘﻜﺘﻑ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻷﻗل ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﺒل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ "ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ" ﻝﺘﻭﻝﻴﺩ ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻝﻠﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ‪ ،‬ﻓﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻔﻅﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻹﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺃﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬
‫ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻁﻠﻕ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻜﺫﺍ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺘﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ )ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺴﺎﻋﺩﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺭ ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﺤﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 3-3‬ﻨﻘﺹ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻨﻌﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺸﺭﺍﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺘﺨﻀﻊ ﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻜﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺘﻀﻌﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺤﺘﻰ‬
‫ﺘﻨﻌﺩﻡ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻤﺜل ﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺴﻤﺎﺴﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻥ ﻨﻘﺹ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻬﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺼﺩﺭ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻗﺒﺎل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺩﻋﺎﺀ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻘﺎﺩ ﺃﻨﻨﺎ ﻨﻌﺭﻑ ﻜل ﺃﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻜل ﻴﻭﻡ‬
‫ﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ﻝﻡ ﻴﻜﻥ ﻤﻌﺭﻭﻓﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2007‬ﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻘﺎﺩ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻗﺎﺼﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻗل ﺠﻭﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﺜﻡ ﻝﻡ ﻴﻠﺒﺙ ﺃﻥ ﻅﻬﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻜﺒﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺤﻘﻘﺕ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ‬
‫ﺒﺒﻼﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺜﻡ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﺍﻓﻼﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻬﺩﻴﺩ ﺒﺈﻓﻼﺱ ﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻨﺠﻠﺘﺭﺍ ﺜﻡ ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﻼﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺜﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺎﺯﺍﻝﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ‪ ،viii‬ﻭﺘﺘﻠﺨﺹ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎﻴﻠﻲ‪:ix‬‬
‫‪ 1-4‬ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ :‬ﺭﻏﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻤﺘﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻴﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺩﺨل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﺒﺎﻝﻔﻌل ﻓﻲ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﺃﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﺴﺠﻼ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﻤﻅﺎﻫﺭ ﺍﻝﺭﻜﻭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 2-4‬اﻥض ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻭﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭﻩ‪ :‬ﻝﻘﺩ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﺘﺭﻭل ﺒﺄﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ‬
‫‪ 60 %‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻀﻁﺭﺍﺭ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻷﻭﺒﻙ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﻑ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻷﻜﺒﺭ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ ﻭﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺭﻙ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻝﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬
‫ﻝﺫﻝﻙ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 3-4‬ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺤﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺘﻜﺎﻝﻴﻔﻪ‪ :‬ﻜﺎﻥ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻭﺘﻜﺎﻝﻴﻔﻪ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺤﺭﺹ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺒﻠﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﻤﻭﻴل‪ ،‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻜﺎﻝﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻓﺎﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺤﺫﺭﺍ ﻭﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎﺌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 4-4‬ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺜﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬
‫ﻝﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺼل ﺇﻝﻰ ‪. %30‬‬
‫‪ 5-4‬ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‪ :‬ﺃﺜﺭﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 6-4‬ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﻴﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ‪ :‬ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺍﻝﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺘﻘﻠﺹ ﻓﺭﺹ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﻭﺍﺘﺏ ﻭﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺴﻴﻨﻘﺹ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻸﻴﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﺎﺠﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 7-4‬ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﻤﻥ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺘﺄﺜﺭﺍ ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﻋﻼﺕ ﻤﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻀﻌﻑ ﺃﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻀﺭﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻤﻥ ﻀﻌﻑ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺼﻌﻭﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺘﻜﺎﻝﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل‪.‬‬
‫‪ 8-4‬ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﻀﻁﺭﺕ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﺒﺸﻜل‬
‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﻀﺦ ﺃﻤﻭﺍل ﻫﺎﺌﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎ‬
‫ﻝﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺩﻋﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺸﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺘﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺇﺨﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻝﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺸﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻨﺒﺊ ﺒﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﻋﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺠﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺘﺒﺎﻉ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ )ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ‪ ،‬ﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ‪ :‬ﺃﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻻ ﺸﻙ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺩﺍﺤﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺴﺘﻔﺘﺢ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺎل ﺒﺸﻜل ﻗﻭﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﻭﺇﺼﻼﺡ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﻁﺒﻊ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺠﻪ‬
‫ﻴﺜﻴﺭ ﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺓ ﺤﻭل ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻨﺴﺠﺎﻡ ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻤﻊ ﻓﻠﺴﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺤﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻐﺽ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻤﺩﻯ‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭﻯ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻨﺼﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﺫﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻴﺴﻤﺢ ﺒﺈﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺇﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻝﻠﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﺤﺘﻰ ﺍﻵﻥ ﺘﻔﺎﺩﻴﺎ ﻝﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻭﺘﺠﻨﺒﺎ ﻝﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﻜﺩ ﺃﻥ ﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﺩﺓ ﺩﺭﻭﺱ ﻤﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻝﺩﺭﻭﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:x‬‬
‫‪ 1-1‬ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﺎﻨﺔ ﺒﺄﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻴﻡ ﻝﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺭﻁ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻨﺘﺠﺕ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﻔﺎﻑ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻜﺘﻭﺨﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺫﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﺭﺹ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻜﺸﺭﻁ ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﻝﻺﻗﺭﺍﺽ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 2-1‬ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﺒﻨﺴﺏ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺍﻜﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﻭﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺤﺴﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺒﺩﻭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﺩﻤﺎﻥ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺼﻌﻴﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻜﻜل ﺃﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺼﻌﻴﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ‪ 30‬ﻀﻌﻔﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 3-1‬ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺤﺫﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﻝﻐﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﺒﺎﻝﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻘﺩﺓ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﻭﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻹﺸﻜﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻨﺘﺠﺕ ﻋﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻝﻴﺱ ﻓﻘﻁ ﻝﻜﻭﻥ ﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻻ ﻴﻔﻬﻤﻭﻥ ﻭﻻ ﻴﻘﺩﺭﻭﻥ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬
‫ﺨﻁﻭﺭﺓ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺒل ﻝﻜﻭﻨﻬﺎ ﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﺼل ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 4-1‬ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﻝﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺃﺜﺒﺘﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻨﻘﺹ ﺍﻝﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻝﻴﺴﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺨﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻘﻁ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﺃﻥ ﻀﻌﻑ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺃﺨﻁﺭ ﻝﺩﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻝﻰ ﻏﺎﻴﺔ ﻭﻗﻭﻉ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻝﻡ ﺘﻜﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻠﻡ ﺘﺎﻡ ﺒﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 5-1‬ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪ :‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺤﺠﻡ ﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻨﺸﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻜﺸﻑ ﺍﻝﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻝﻠﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻻ ﻴﺴﻤﺢ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 6-1‬ﻻ ﻴﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﻷﻱ ﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻠﺘﺯﻡ ﺒﻘﻭﺍﻝﺏ ﺇﻴﺩﻴﻭﻝﻭﺠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺠﺎﻤﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻴﺘﻌﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺌﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻭﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻭﺒﻌﺙ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﻭﺱ ﺍﻝﺠﻤﻴﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﻴﺘﺄﺘﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺇﻻ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﺠﻌل ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻭﺇﺸﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪.xi‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻝﺠﻬﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﺘﺨﺫﺕ ﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺨﻁﻭﺍﺕ ﻤﻨﺴﻘﺔ ﻁﻐﻰ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻁﺎﺒﻊ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﺘﻠﻲ‬
‫‪ -‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﺒﺩﺕ ﻤﻨﻔﺭﺩﺓ ‪ -‬ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻭﺃﻋﻠﻨﺕ ﺨﻁﻁﺎ ﻹﻨﻘﺎﺫ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﻭﺭﺩ ﺃﻫﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺠﻬﻭﺩ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺨﺘﺼﺭ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:xii‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ ﺼﺎﻍ ﻭﺯﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺨﺯﺍﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻴﺔ "ﻫﻨﺭﻱ ﺒﻭﻝﺴﻭﻥ" ﺨﻁﺔ ﺇﻨﻘﺎﺫ ﺼﺎﺩﻕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻤﺠﻠﺴﺎ ﺍﻝﻨﻭﺍﺏ ﻭﺍﻝﺸﻴﻭﺥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ ﺃﻓﻀل ﻝﻠﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﻤﻼﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﻭﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺩﺍﻓﻌﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻀﺭﺍﺌﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﺤﺩ ﻤﻤﻜﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺤﺩﺩ ﻝﻬﺎ ﻗﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﻤﻬﻠﺔ ﺘﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺒﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2009‬ﻤﻊ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺘﻤﺩﻴﺩﻫﺎ ﺒﻁﻠﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺃﻗﺼﺎﻫﺎ ﺴﻨﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﺇﻗﺭﺍﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻀﺦ ‪ 700‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻝﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻬﺎﻝﻜﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻭﻀﻌﺕ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﺒﻊ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺭﻯ )ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﻓﺭﻨﺴﺎ ﻭﺃﻝﻤﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﺇﻴﻁﺎﻝﻴﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻴﺎﺒﺎﻥ ﻭﻜﻨﺩﺍ( "ﺨﻁﺔ ﺘﺤﺭﻙ" ﻝﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻌﻬﺩ ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺅﻫﺎ ﺒﻤﻨﻊ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺭﻯ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﺘﻔﻘﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﻙ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻜﻲ ﺘﺘﻤﻜﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺭﺴﺎﻤﻴل‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺘﺒﻨﻰ ﻗﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﻴﻭﺭﻭ ﺨﻁﺔ ﺇﻨﻘﺎﺫ ﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺄﻤﻴﻡ ﺠﺯﺌﻲ ﻝﻠﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻀﺭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺴﺘﻨﺩ‬
‫ﺃﺴﺎﺴﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻀﺦ ﺃﻤﻭﺍل ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻀﺭﺭﺓ ﻭﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪ ،‬ﻤﻊ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﻤﻭﻴﻠﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﻓﺭﻨﺴﺎ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺩ ﺍﻝﺒﺭﻝﻤﺎﻥ ﺨﻁﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺭﺤﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻹﻨﻘﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬
‫ﺒﻤﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 360‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﻴﻭﺭﻭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺃﻝﻤﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻓﻘﺕ ﺤﻜﻭﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺨﻁﺔ ﻹﻨﻘﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺘﺘﻀﻤﻥ ﺘﺄﺴﻴﺱ ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺨﺼﺼﺕ ﻝﻪ ‪ 400‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﻴﻭﺭﻭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻗﺭﺕ ﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﺨﻁﺔ ﺘﻀﺦ ﺒﻤﻭﺠﺒﻬﺎ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺼل ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫‪ 250‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺠﻨﻴﻪ ﺍﺴﺘﺭﻝﻴﻨﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻤﻭﺍل ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﺒﻼﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺸﻤل ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺔ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺠل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻭﺇﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺃﻤﻭﺍل ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻝﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺃﺭﺼﺩﺓ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل‬
‫ﻤﻭﺍﺼﻠﺔ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺃﻗﺭ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻤﺎ ﺍﻝﺭﻭﺴﻲ ﺨﻁﺔ ﻹﻨﻘﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻼﺩ ﺒﻘﻴﻤﺔ ‪ 63‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﻴﻭﺭﻭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻤﺒﺎﻝﻎ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﺭﻭﺴﻲ ﻭﺒﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻤﻥ ﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺴﺘﺤﺼل ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺜﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﻝﻎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻜﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﺒﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺴﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺇﻁﺎﺭ ﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺃﺼﺎﺏ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﺴﻡ ﺒﻁﺒﻴﻌﺘﻴﻥ‪:xiii‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻰ‪ ،‬ﺘﺘﻤﺤﻭﺭ ﺤﻭل ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺒﺘﺭﻭل ﻭﻏﺎﺯ ﻝﻠﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ ﻓﺎﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻌﺯﺯ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﺒﻨﻭﻜﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﺘﻰ ﻭﻝﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻌﺽ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻝﻪ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻭﺍﻝﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﻭﺩ ﻝﻠﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﻴﺘﻡ ﻤﺤﻠﻴﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻨﺎﻫﻴﻙ ﻋﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻏﻠﺏ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ ﺘﻀﻊ ﻗﻴﻭﺩﺍ ﻝﺒﻨﻭﻜﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻷﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻊ ﺫﻝﻙ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻥ ﻤﻭﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﺫﻋﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻗﺩ ﺃﺼﺎﺏ – ﺒﺸﻜل ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺭﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺤﻴﺎﻥ – ﺩﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭﺕ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻨﺎﻫﻴﻙ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬
‫ﺒﻭﺍﺩﺭ ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺴﺎﺩﺕ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺃﻋﻁﺕ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺠﻴﺩﺓ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﻭﻀﻌﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻤﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻝﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻕ ﺫﻜﺭﻩ‪ ،‬ﺴﻨﺤﺎﻭل ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻗﺎﻤﺕ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺘﻀﺭﺭ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺒﺎﻝﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺩﻓﻊ‬
‫ﺴﻠﻁﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻀﺦ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻀﺨﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﻭﻴﺘﻴﺔ ﻋﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻝﺩﻋﻡ ﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻹﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﺘﺨﺫﺕ ﺘﺩﺍﺒﻴﺭ ﻭﻗﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺴﺒﻘﻬﺎ ﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﺨﻠﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫﻫﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﻋﻠﻨﺕ ﺤﻜﻭﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺴﺘﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺃﻱ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻷﻴﺔ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﻭﻀﺦ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﻬﺎﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺫﻝﻙ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻓﻲ ﻤﺼﺭ ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻤﺘﻼﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻤﺼﺭ ﻝﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺇﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺎﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻭﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﺴﻠﺒﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻀﻑ‬
‫ﺇﻝﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺘﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺘﺠﻪ ﻫﺅﻻﺀ ﻝﻠﺒﻴﻊ ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺴﺤﺎﺏ ﺒﺄﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﻡ ﻤﻊ ﻫﺒﻭﻁ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺎﺕ ﺒﻼﺩﻫﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻋﻘﺏ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﻊ ﺘﻭﺠﻪ ﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻤﺤﻠﻴﻴﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﻊ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻤﻕ ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﻬﺒﻭﻁﻲ ﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻤﺼﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻠﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﻐﺎﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﻭﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ ﻝﻠﻁﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺒﻨﻰ ﺘﺤﺘﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺸﻴﻴﺩ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻝﻜﻥ ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺃﻗل‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ‬
‫ﺒﺎﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﺼﻌﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻏﻴﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺼﺩﺭ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺭ ﻴﺄﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻨﻌﻜﺱ‬
‫ﺴﻠﺒﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻴﻭﻝﺘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻠﻴﺒﻴﺎ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺃﻋﻠﻨﺕ ﺃﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ %80‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬
‫ﺤﺠﻤﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻠﻴﺒﻴﺎ ﺘﻭﻅﻑ ﺃﻤﻭﺍل ﺍﻝﺒﺘﺭﻭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺼﻌﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺨﻔﻑ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻭﻅﻑ ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﻐﺭﺏ ﺘﺄﺜﺭﺕ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﻀﺎﺀ ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻝﻴﺨﺴﺭ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﻫﺎ ﻜل ﻤﺎ ﺤﻘﻘﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺡ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻤﻁﻠﻊ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،2008‬ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻐﺭﺏ ﻴﺸﻬﺩ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻁﻔﺭﺓ ﻋﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻀﺨﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﻅﺎﻤﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻤﺘﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻝﻜﻥ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺫﻋﺭ‬
‫ﺃﺼﺎﺒﺕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺘﻭﻨﺱ ﻓﺴﻭﻗﻬﺎ ﺸﺒﻪ ﻤﻨﻐﻠﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺘﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﻤﺤﻠﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﻤل ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻻ ﻴﻤﺜل ﻭﺯﻨﺎ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺃﻋﻁﻰ ﻏﻁﺎﺀﺍ ﻭﺍﺴﻌﺎ‬
‫ﻝﻠﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻨﺴﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻝﺙ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺤﺘل ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻤﻜﺎﻨﺔ ﻫﺎﻤﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ ﺒﺭﺍﻤﺠﻬﺎ ﻭﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺘﺄﻤل ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺅﺩﻴﻪ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻝﻠﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻝﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺃﻋﻤﺎل‬
‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺘﺨﺹ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺒﺼﻼﺤﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺘﻤﻴﺯﻫﺎ ﻋﻥ ﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻔﻭﻀﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺴﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻝﺘﻤﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻭﻅﺎﺌﻑ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻬﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻝﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺠﻭﺓ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺒﺄﻜﺒﺭ ﻜﻔﺎﻴﺔ ﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‪:‬‬
‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺼﺎﺤﺒﺕ ﺒﺭﻭﺯ ﻭﺘﻨﺎﻤﻲ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﻝﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻠﻌﺏ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺭﺍﺯﻱ ﻭﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻨﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﺩﻓﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺅﺩﻯ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻭﻅﻴﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻁﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻭﻓﻕ ﺃﺸﻜﺎل ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻨﺠﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺘﺩﺨل ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻭﻅﻴﻔﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻋﻜﺱ ﺩﻭل ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﺃﻴﻥ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺘﺘﻜﻔل ﺒﺫﻝﻙ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻴﺤﺩﺙ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺩﺓ ﻫﻴﺌﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻜﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺭﺍﺭ ﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻴﻤﺎﺭﺱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،xiv‬ﻭﻝﻜﻥ ﻤﻬﻤﺎ ﺘﻌﺩﺩﺕ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺸﻜﺎل ﻓﻼﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﻭ ﺒﺂﺨﺭ ﻝﻠﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻓﻌﺎﻝﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺸﻜﻠﻴﻥ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﻴﻥ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺸﻜل ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ‪ :‬ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺭﺍﺯﻱ ﻭﻓﺭﺽ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺭﺍﺯﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﺴﻴﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺎﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺼﻌﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺭﺍﺭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬
‫ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﺍﻝﺫﺍﺘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺌﻤﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ‪.xv‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺸﻜل ﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ‪ :‬ﻓﺭﺽ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻭﺇﺘﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻴﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻴﻤﺔ ﻭﻓﻕ ﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺤﻭﻜﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺩﻋﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻫﺫﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﻜﻠﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ‪ -‬ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ‪ -‬ﺒﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻭﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻨﺫﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﻜﺭ ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻜﻤﻘﺭﺽ ﺃﺨﻴﺭ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺸﻬﺩﻩ ﻋﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻝﻴﻭﻡ ﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻴﻠﻘﻲ ﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﻠﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻝﻤﺎ ﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺒﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﺴﻌﺔ ﺴﻴﺠﻌل ﺩﻭﺭﻫﻡ ﻤﺼﻴﺭﻴﺎ ﻝﺘﻤﻜﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻔﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺸﺭﺕ ﺼﺤﻴﻔﺔ "ﻭﺍﺸﻨﻁﻥ ﺒﻭﺴﺕ" ﻤﻘﺎﻻ ﻴﺘﻨﺎﻭل ﺩﻭﺭ ﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻲ ﻭﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲ ﻭﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻝﻴﺎﺒﺎﻨﻲ ﻭﻨﻅﺭﺍﺌﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺼﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺒﺭﺍﺯﻴل ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻜﺴﻴﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺩﺒﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻘﻭل ﻜﺎﺘﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎل "ﺭﻭﺒﺭﺕ ﺴﻤﻭﻴﻠﺴﻭﻥ" ﺃﻨﻪ ﻴﺒﺩﻭ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﻗﻊ ﻴﻤﻜﻨﻬﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺤﻴﺎﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﻭﺠﻪ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺩﻝﻴل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺃﻥ ﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻗﺭﺭﺕ ﺨﻔﺽ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻨﻭﻓﻤﺒﺭ ﻭﺩﻴﺴﻤﺒﺭ )‪ (2008‬ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻝﺩﻓﻊ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﻭﺩﻋﻡ ﺍﻷﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎل ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﻨﻁﻕ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ‬
‫ﻴﻘﻭل ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﻱ ﻝﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﻝﻴل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺒﺎﻹﻤﻜﺎﻥ ﺘﻔﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﺒﻨﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﺴﺎ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1931‬ﻝﻭ ﺍﺘﻔﻘﺕ ﺃﻝﻤﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﻓﺭﻨﺴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺨﻁﺔ ﺇﻨﻘﺎﺫ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﻭﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎل ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺠﺎ ﺤﺎﻝﻴﺎ ﻝﻠﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﺩﺭﺍﻝﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻲ ﻭ‪ 14‬ﺒﻨﻜﺎ ﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺎ ﻋﺒﺭ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ‬
‫ﻀﺨﻤﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻲ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻗﺒل ﺃﻥ ﺘﻘﺭﻀﻬﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ ﻭﺁﺴﻴﺎ ﻭﺃﻤﻴﺭﻜﺎ ﺍﻝﻼﺘﻴﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺨﻠﺹ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎل ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻀﻐﻭﻁﺎ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺅﺴﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺃﺠل ﺇﺤﻴﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻝﻜﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺒﻴﻨﻬﻡ ﻻ ﻴﺭﻗﻰ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻭﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺤﺼﻭل ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺸﺒﻴﻬﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺤﺼل ﻓﻲ ﺜﻼﺜﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﺘﺨﺫﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻗﻭﻴﺔ ﻝﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺘﺴﻬﻴل ﺍﻝﻭﺼﻭل ‪-‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﻭﺍﺴﻊ‪ -‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻜﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻝﻡ ﻴﺤﻘﻕ ﺇﻻ ﻨﺠﺎﺤﺎ ﺃﻭﻝﻴﺎ‬
‫ﺠﺯﺌﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﻷﻥ ﻋﻼﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﻅﻠﺕ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺩﻴﺴﻤﺒﺭ ‪ 2007‬ﺒﺘﻭﺴﻴﻊ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺎﻡ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﺩﺭﺍﻝﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻲ ﻭﺒﻨﻙ ﺇﻨﺠﻠﺘﺭﺍ‬
‫)ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ( ﺒﺘﻭﺴﻴﻊ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻀﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺒﻭﻝﺔ ﻭﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﻤﻭﺡ ﻝﻬﻡ ﺒﺎﻝﻭﺼﻭل‬
‫ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻤﻭﺍل ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﻋﻠﻨﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻤﻨﺴﻘﺔ ﺘﺭﻤﻲ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺨﻁﻭﻁ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﺩﺭﺍﻝﻲ ﻝﻠﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺘﻭﺴﻴﻊ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﺘﺨﺫ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﺩﺭﺍﻝﻲ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺎﺭﺱ ‪ 2008‬ﺒﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺘﺢ ﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺨﺼﻡ‬
‫ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﻴﻥ ﺫﻭﻱ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺎﻡ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﺒﺘﺨﻔﻴﻑ ﻤﻭﺍﻗﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﺕ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻴﻁﺔ ﺒﺎﻵﻓﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻝﻠﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺎﻥ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺤﺩﺓ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﺩﺭﺍﻝﻲ ﻤﻨﺫ ﺃﻭﺕ ‪ 2007‬ﺒﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ‬
‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﺍﻝﻔﺩﺭﺍﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﻨﻙ ﻜﻨﺩﺍ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻭﺒﻨﻙ ﺇﻨﺠﻠﺘﺭﺍ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﺒﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻜﺄﺩﺍﺓ ﻝﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻨﺎﺯل ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺒﻲ ﻭﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻴﺎﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻋﻥ ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ‬
‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺴﺒﻕ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺃﻥ ﺸﺭﻋﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺯﻤﺔ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺘﺤﻭﻁﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺤﻴﻠﻭﻝﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺘﺒﻌﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺃﺒﺭﺯﻫﺎ ﻀﺦ ﺃﻤﻭﺍل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻝﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺃﻱ‬
‫ﻨﻘﺹ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺠﻪ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻋﺼﻔﺕ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﻭﺭﺩ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺃﻗﺩﻤﺕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻜﻭﻴﺕ‪ :‬ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻜﻭﻴﺕ ﺒﻀﺦ ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﻜﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻻ‬
‫ﻝﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﻷﺴﺒﻭﻉ ﻭﻝﺸﻬﺭ ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻹﻅﻬﺎﺭ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻝﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻜﺨﻁﻭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻜﻭﻴﺘﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻜﺩﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﺩﺍﺩﻫﺎ ﻝﻀﺦ ﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﺇﺫﺍ ﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﺭﻏﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻭﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ :‬ﻗﺭﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻹﻤﺎﺭﺍﺘﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺘﻴﺢ ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻗﺭﻭﻀﺎ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺴﻬﻴل ﺒﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫‪ 50‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﺭﻫﻡ )‪ 13.61‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺨﺼﺹ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ ﻜﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻨﺤﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻜل ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺒﻘﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠﻠﻬﺎ ‪ 14‬ﻴﻭﻤﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺃﺠل ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺃﻭ ﻴﻘل ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺒﻘﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻜﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﺩ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻝﻸﺠل ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻝﻐﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻗﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﺘﺔ ﻝﻠﺴﺤﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻜﺸﻭﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﻤﺅﻗﺘﺔ‬
‫ﻹﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺍﻝﻘﺼﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺨﻁﻭﺓ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﺃﻋﻠﻥ ﺒﻨﻙ ﺩﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﺨﻁﻁ ﺍﻝﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺘﺸﺠﻴﻌﺎ ﻤﻨﻪ ﻝﻺﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﺴﻡ ﺒﺎﻹﺤﺴﺎﺱ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺭ‪ :‬ﺒﻌﺩ ﺘﻀﺭﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺭ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻝﺨﺭﻭﺝ ﺍﻝﺠﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻝﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺘﻡ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﻗﺭﺍﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻁﺭﻑ ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺒﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ‪ %10‬ﻭ‪ 20%‬ﻤﻥ ﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﺤﺔ ﻝﻸﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﻭﺓ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻀﺦ‬
‫ﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﻝﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺩﻤﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﻭﺴﻊ ﻭﺘﺄﻜﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﻀﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻝﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻜﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻋﻠﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺃﻨﻪ ﺴﻴﻭﻓﺭ ﺃﻱ ﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﺘﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻝﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻁﺭﺡ ﺨﻴﺎﺭ ﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺒﺎﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ‪ %75‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺒﻠﻎ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﻨﺤﻭ ﻤﺎﺌﺘﻲ ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺭﻴﺎل )‪ 53.1‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ(‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻗﺭﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺨﻔﺽ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺒﻨﺼﻑ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﻝﺘﺼﺒﺢ ‪%5‬‬
‫ﻭﺨﻔﺽ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁ ﺍﻹﻝﺯﺍﻤﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﻭﺩﺍﺌﻌﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ‪ 13‬ﺇﻝﻰ ‪ 10‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺭﺩﺓ ﻓﻌل ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺠﻴﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺭﻴﻥ‪ :‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺭﻴﻥ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﻏﻠﺏ ﺒﻨﻭﻜﻬﺎ ﺘﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﻌﺸﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺘﺼﺭﻴﺤﺎﺕ ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅ ﺒﻨﻜﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻴﺱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺘﻌﺭﻀﻬﺎ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺸﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻹﺴﻼﻤﻴﺔ )ﻝﻴﺴﺕ ﻋﺭﻀﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ(‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻋﻠﻨﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺭﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﺴﻼﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ‪ :‬ﻜﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﺒﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫﻫﺎ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺡ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺈﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺭﺍﺯﻴﺔ ﻤﺜل ﺼﺩﻭﺭ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﻨﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﻅﻡ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﺇﺘﺒﺎﻉ ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﻜﻔﺎﻴﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﻭﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻤﺜل ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﻭﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﻭﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﻜﺯﺍﺕ ﻭﺘﻔﻌﻴل ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻜﺘﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺩﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺜﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﺘﻨﺒﻴﻪ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺒﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﻜﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻥ ﻋﻤل ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﻤﺨﺼﺼﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻜﻠﻪ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻫﺎﻡ ﻭﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﺤﺘﺎﺠﺕ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺒﺘﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻁﻠﺒﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻭﺭﺍ ﺨﺼﻤﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺤﺴﺏ ﻁﻠﺏ ﻭﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﻜل ﺒﻨﻙ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﺒﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻝﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺃﻴﺔ ﻤﺒﺎﻝﻎ ﺒﺎﻝﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻜﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻓﻲ ﺘﻭﻨﺱ‪ :‬ﺃﻗﺭﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻨﺴﻴﺔ ﺤﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺼﻌﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﺼﺭﻑ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻼﺩ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻌﺒﺔ ﻭﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﻲ ‪ 2008‬ﻭ‪ 2009‬ﻭﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻨﺴﻲ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺃﻤﻨﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ‪ :‬ﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ – ﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ – ﻗﺒل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺃﺜﺭﺕ‬
‫ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻬﺕ ﺒﺯﻭﺍل ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺹ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺱ ﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﺘﺨﺫ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺭﺍﺯﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻋﺘﻘﺎﺩﻨﺎ ﻤﻜﻨﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻼﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻀﻌﻑ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ )ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻨﻼﺤﻅ ﺃﻥ ﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ﻝﻡ ﻴﺘﺨﺫ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬
‫ﻝﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺼﺎﺭ )ﻤﻨﺘﺼﻑ ‪ (2009‬ﺒﺭﺯ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻬﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ‬
‫ﻗﺎﻤﺕ ﺒﻪ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺴﺌﻠﺔ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻻ‬
‫ﺘﺯﺍل ﻤﻁﺭﻭﺤﺔ ﺤﻭل ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻀﻤﻨﺘﻬﺎ ﺨﻁﻁ ﺍﻹﻨﻘﺎﺫ ﻭﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻌﻬﺎ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻼ ﻤﻊ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬
‫ﻤﻭﺠﺎﺕ ﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺒﻭﻗﺔ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ ﻀﺨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻤﻭﺍل ﻁﺎﺌﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻔﻴﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺒﻨﻲ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﻭﺴﻌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻨﻔﺭﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻤﻨﺎ ﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﺼﺭﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺘﻴﻥ ﻝﻠﺩﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻨﺭﻯ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﺴﺘﻁﺎﻋﺕ – ﺭﻏﻡ ﺘﺄﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ – ﺘﺨﻁﻲ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻝﺴﺒﺒﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻭل ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻬﺎﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻁﻔﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺒﻭﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻴﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺍﺸﺘﺭﺍﻙ ﺒﻨﻭﻜﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺨﻁﻁ ﻤﺸﺘﺭﻜﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻁﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﻐﺭﺏ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺒﻨﻭﻜﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻝﻡ‬
‫ﺘﺴﺘﻁﻊ ﺘﺒﻨﻲ ﺨﻁﻁ ﺇﻨﻘﺎﺫ ﺸﺒﻴﻬﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺒﻨﺘﻬﺎ ﺩﻭل ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺭﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻁﺭﺤﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻴﺱ ﺜﻤﺔ ﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﻨﺨﺭﻁ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﺨﻁﺔ ﻋﻤل‬
‫ﻤﺸﺘﺭﻜﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺘﻨﺴﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺸﺒﻪ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﺘــﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻤﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺒﺎﺭﺯ ﻭﺇﻥ ﺍﺘﻔﻘﻭﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻭﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺒﻌﻴﺩﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺇﻋﻁﺎﺀ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﻀﺤﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻭﻀﻌﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺤﺠﻡ ﻭﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻬﺫﺍ ﻨﺠﺩﻫﺎ ﻗﺩ ﺍﺘﺨﺫﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﻜﻴﻑ‬
‫ﻤﻊ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺴﻴﻕ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺍﺘﺨﺫ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺭﺍﺭ ﻤﺎ ﺃﻗﺩﻤﺕ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ – ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ – ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻝﻘﺩ ﻭﻀﻌﺕ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺨﻁﻁ ﺇﻨﻘﺎﺫ ﺸﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﺨﺼﺼﺕ ﻗﺩﺭﺍ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﺴﺘﺩﺍﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺎﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺤﺎل ﻏﺎﻝﺒﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺜﺭﺍﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﺒل‪،‬‬
‫ﻨﺠﺩ ﺃﻥ ﻜﻼ ﻤﻥ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﻐﺭﺏ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ )ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻐﺭﺏ ﻭﺘﻭﻨﺱ( ﻭﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ )ﻤﺼﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬
‫ﻭﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻭﺴﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ( ـ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﺴﻡ ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﺒﺎﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻀﻌﻴﻔﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻌﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ـ ﻨﺎﻀﻠﺕ ﺒﻐﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻔﻌﺎﻝﺔ ﻝﻸﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺭﺘﺏ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻝﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻝﻠﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺨﻴﺭ ﻁﺭﺡ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺃﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﻼﺼﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻭﺭﻗﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺘﺘﺤﻤل ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﻭ ﺒﺂﺨﺭ ﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺤﺩﺙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬
‫ﻨﻘﺹ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻨﻌﺩﺍﻡ – ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻻﺕ – ﻝﻠﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺸﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻁﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺃﻭﺠﻪ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻴﻌﻭل ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺴﻴﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺤﻭل ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻭﺤﻭل‬
‫ﺘﺴﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻴﺴﻤﺢ ﺒﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻬﺩﺩ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻴﺠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻔﺭﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻨﺤﻭ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﺸﺭﻭﻁ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻝﻠﺠﻭﺀ‬
‫ﺇﻝﻴﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻝﺘﻼﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺠﺎﺕ ﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺒﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﺃﺩﺍﺌﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﻲ ﻭﺍﻹﺸﺭﺍﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ‬
‫ﻤﺎ ﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﻤﻨﻪ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﺨﻰ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻫﻭ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻨﻀﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﻭﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﺜﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻬﻭﺍﻤﺵ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ ﻭﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ‪ -‬ﺤﺎﻝﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ‪-‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺠﻴﺩ*‬ ‫ﺃ‪.‬ﺩ‪ .‬ﻗﺩﻱ ﻋﺒﺩ‬
‫ﺠﻤﻴﻠﺔ**‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻝﺠﻭﺯﻱ‬
‫ﻴﻤﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻤﻨﺫ ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ‪ 2008‬ﺒﺄﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺴﻭﺀ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻋﺭﻓﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪،‬‬
‫ﻨﺘﺠﺕ ﻋﻥ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺒﺒﺕ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺩﻴﺌﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻨﺫ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﻭﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺘﺘﻤﺩﺩ ﻭﺘﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺘﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻌﺩﺓ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬
‫ﻭﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻭﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺸﻤﻠﺕ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﻭﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﺎﺕ ﺤﺎﺩﺓ ﻭﻤﺘﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻤﺘﺩﺕ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺃﻨﺤﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻭﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺭﻜﻭﺩ ﺒﺩﺃ ﻴﺨﻴﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ‪ .‬ﺤﺘﻰ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﻭﺍﻨﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﺼﺤﻑ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺠﻼﺕ ﻭﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻭﺭﻗﺔ ﻨﺤﺎﻭل ﺇﺒﺭﺍﺯ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺘﺸﺨﻴﺹ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﻝﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻀﻭﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﻨﻭﺍﻋﻬﺎ ﻭﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺤﺩﻭﺜﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (I‬ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﻨﻭﺍﻋﻬﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (1‬ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺒﺎﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﻤﺤﺩﺩ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﺭﻴﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺘﺘﻔﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜﻭﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻻ ﻋﻤﻴﻘﺎ ﻭﺍﻀﻁﺭﺍﺒﺎ ﺤﺎﺩﺍ ﻭﻤﻔﺎﺠﺌﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻴﺘﺒﻌﻬﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺩﺍﺌﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻤﺘﺩ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻜﻠﻪ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪.‬‬
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‫‪ (2‬ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻨﻔﺭﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﻭﺘﺘﺨﺫ ﺸﻜﻼﻥ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃ(‬
‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ‪ :‬ﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﺒﻨﻙ ﻤﺎ ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻁﻠﺏ ﺴﺤﺏ ﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫•‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺈﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺃﻭ ﺘﺸﻐﻴل ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻝﺩﻴﻪ ﻭﻴﺤﺘﻔﻅ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺒﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻝﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﻁﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﺤﺏ ﺍﻝﻴﻭﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻠﻥ‬
‫ﻴﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺒﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻝﻁﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺩﻋﻴﻥ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺘﺨﻁﺕ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻤﺘﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪ :‬ﻭﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﻝﻤﺎ ﺘﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ ﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻝﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻭﺘﺭﻓﺽ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺨﻭﻓ ﹰﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫•‬
‫ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻭﻓﺎﺀ ﺒﻁﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﺤﺏ ﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل "ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻔﻘﺎﻋﺎﺕ"‪ :‬ﻴﺤﺩﺙ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺏ(‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﹰﺎ ﺒﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ "ﺍﻝﻔﻘﺎﻋﺔ"‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺩﻝﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬
‫ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺭﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺤﺩﺙ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻬﺩﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻷﺼل ﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻌﺭﻩ ﻭﻝﻴﺱ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺃﺠل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻝﺘﻭﻝﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﻤﺴﺄﻝﺔ ﻭﻗﺕ ﻓﻘﻁ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻝﻤﺎ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬
‫ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻫﹰﺎ ﻗﻭﻴ ﹰﺎ ﻝﺒﻴﻊ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺘﺒﺩﺃ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻬﺒﻭﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﺘﺒﺩﺃ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺫﻋﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﻓﺘﻨﻬﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻭﻴﻤﺘﺩ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺃﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﺕ‪ :‬ﻭﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻝﻤﺎ ﺘﺘﺨﺫ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻗﺭﺍﺭ ﺒﺨﻔﺽ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺕ(‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﻤﻬﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﻜﻭﺴﻴﻁ ﻝﻠﺘﺒﺎﺩل ﺃﻭ ﻜﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻝﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻘﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻐﺎﻝﺏ ﻤﺎ ﻓﻭﻕ ‪ .1%25‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﺴﻤﻰ‬
‫ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺒﺄﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (II‬ﻨﺒﺫﺓ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ‪:‬‬
‫ﻨﺒﺫﺓ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫‪(1‬‬

‫ﻴﺨﻀﻊ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻝﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺭﻑ ﺒﺎﻝﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﻜل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺩﻱ ﻝﻭﺠﻭﺩﻩ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻭ ﻴﻨﺘﻘل ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﻜﻭﺩ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺜﻡ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﻓﻴﻨﻬﺽ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺭﻜﻭﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻋﺭﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﻨﺫ ﺃﻭﺍﺨﺭ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺴﻊ ﻋﺸﺭ ﻭﺃﻭﺍﺌل ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺸﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ :1866‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻌﺭﻀﺕ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻹﻨﺠﻠﻴﺯﻴﺔ ﻝﻺﻓﻼﺱ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬ ‫•‬
‫ﻋﺼﻔﺕ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻲ‪ .،‬ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻝﻠﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺁﻨﺫﺍﻙ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻌﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻗﺩﻡ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺸﻬﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺤﺩﺜﺕ ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺤﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺭﺒﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺸﺭﻴﻥ ﺘﺭﺘﺒﺕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺤﺭﺏ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻰ‪.‬‬ ‫•‬
‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﻜﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ‪ :1929‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺩ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺸﻬﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻭﺃﻗﻭﺍﻫﺎ ﺃﺜﺭﹰﺍ‪.‬‬ ‫•‬
‫ﺇﺫ ﻫﺒﻁﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ 1،%13‬ﺜﻡ ﺘﻭﺍﻝﺕ ﺍﻻﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﺃﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﺸﺭ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﻝﻨﺩﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﻭﻗﻌﺕ ﻋﺩﺓ ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺴﺘﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺸﺭﻴﻥ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﻝﻨﺩﻴﺔ ﺜﻡ‬ ‫•‬
‫ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﻭﻤﺘﺸﺎﺒﻬﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺜﻤﺎﻨﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺸﺭﻴﻥ‪ :‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﻅل ﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬ ‫•‬
‫ﻭﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل‪ ،‬ﺘﻭﺴﻌﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻝﺙ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﻗﺘﺭﻨﺕ ﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﺘﻌﺜﺭ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺇﻋﻼﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻨﺔ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻭﻓﺎﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‪1.‬‬ ‫ﺒﺄﻋﺒﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﻭﺨﺩﻤﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻓﻌﻠﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻜﺴﻴﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 1982‬ﻭﺘﺒﻌﻬﺎ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻝﻨﺩﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻜﺘﻭﺒﺭ ‪.1987‬‬ ‫•‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻴﻭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻋﺼﻔﺕ ﺒﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺸﺭﻕ ﺁﺴﻴﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﺼﻑ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫•‬
‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ "ﻓﻘﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺭﻨﻴﺕ" ‪ :2000‬ﻋﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻨﻭﻋ ﹰﺎ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﹰﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﻝﻡ ﺃﺩﺭﺠﺕ‬ ‫•‬
‫ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺭﻨﻴﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺍﺨﺭ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺸﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ‬
‫ﻴﻌﺭﻑ ﺒﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﻨﺎﺴﺩﺍﻙ "‪ "NASDAQ‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻭﻗﺕ‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪.‬‬ ‫‪2000‬‬ ‫ﺤﻘﻕ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻗﻠﻴل ﻤﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺤﹰﺎ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﻔﺠﺎﺭ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻔﻘﺎﻋﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺁﺨﺭ ﺍﻻﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﻤﺎ ﺤﺩﺙ ﺒﻌﺩ ‪ 11‬ﺴﺒﺘﻤﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﺸﻬﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫•‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﻴﺘﻀﺢ‪:1‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﺒﺏ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﻝﻎ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻻ ﻴﺒﺭﺭﻩ ﺍﻝﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﺇﻨﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﻨﺩﻩ‬
‫ﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﻭﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺭﻜﻭﺩ ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻁﺎﻝﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ ﻝﻠﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺌﻤ ﹰﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﻔﻌل ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﻀﺦ ﻤﺒﺎﻝﻎ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻹﻨﻘﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺜﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‪ :‬ﻴﻭﻀﺢ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ :(1‬ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻜﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻰ‪%‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺔ‬
‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪85-77‬‬ ‫ﺇﺴﺒﺎﻨﻴﺎ‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪93 – 91‬‬ ‫ﻓﻨﻠﻨﺩﺍ‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪92- 91‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻴﺩ‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪89 – 87‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻨﺭﻭﻴﺞ‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪91 – 84‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪95- 94 ، 83– 80‬‬ ‫ﻓﻨﺯﻭﻴﻼ‬
‫‪55– 13‬‬ ‫‪1985، 82 – 80‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺠﻨﺘﻴﻥ‬
‫‪15 – 12‬‬ ‫‪95- 94‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻤﻜﺴﻴﻙ‬
‫‪10 – 4‬‬ ‫‪1996 – 94‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺒﺭﺍﺯﻴل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺭ ‪IMF ,World Economic Survey 1998 P 78 :‬‬
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‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ‪-‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗل‪ -‬ﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ؛‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺸﻬﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻲ ﻜﻼ ﺍﻝﻨﻭﻋﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ‪ ،‬ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻐﺫﻱ ﻜل ﻤﻨﻬﻤﺎ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪،‬‬
‫ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺎ ﺘﺴﺒﻕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺒﻌﺎﻡ ﺃﻭ ﻋﺎﻤﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﺤﺙ ﺍﻝﻌﻜﺱ ﻭﺘﺴﺒﻕ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻨﺠﺩ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻫﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ﺃﻭ ﻋﺎﻤﺎﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (III‬ﺃﻋﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺴﺒﺎﺒﻬﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (1‬ﺃﻋﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ :1‬ﺃﺠﻤﻌﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻋﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻜﻔﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻜﻲ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺭﻀﺎ ﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻬﺭﻭﺏ ﻝﻠﺨﺎﺭﺝ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺒﺎﻹﻓﺭﺍﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﺩﻭﻥ ﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻘﺭﻀﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺨﺎﻁﺌﺔ ﺃﺴﻭﺓ ﺒﺎﻵﺨﺭﻴﻥ ) ﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﻴﻊ( ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺘﻌﻤﻴﻕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻫﻴﻜل ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﻋﻨﺼﺭ ﻫﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻤﻴل‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻝﺘﻌﺭﻀﻪ ﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻴﺅﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﺃﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻭﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﺘﻌﺭﻀﻬﺎ ﻝﻺﻋﺴﺎﺭ ﻭﺘﻨﺸﺄ ﻤﻌﻬﺎ ﺃﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﺭﻏﻡ ﺃﻥ ﻝﻜل ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺨﺼﺎﺌﺼﻬﺎ ﻭﺃﺴﺒﺎﺒﻬﺎ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﻤﺸﺘﺭﻜﺔ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺃﻻ ﻭﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻨﻘﺹ ﺍﻝﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﻭﻴﻘﺼﺩ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺩﻗﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻋﻥ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﻝﻜﺸﻑ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻝﻼﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻓﻘﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻭﻫﺭﻭﺏ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ‪.1‬‬
‫ﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺃﻤﻭﺍل ﻀﺨﻤﺔ ﻝﻠﺩﺍﺨل ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺭﺍﻓﻘﻬﺎ ﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻤﻔﺭﻁ ﻭﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻤﻥ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻼﺀﺓ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﺼﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻝﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﻨﺩﻫﺎ ﻴﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﺴﻤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﺯﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﻭﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ‪.1‬‬
‫ﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻹﺸﺭﺍﻑ ﻭﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﺸﻜﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺤﻭل ﺍﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
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‫ﻭﻗﺩﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﺎﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺨﻠل ﻓﻲ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺘﺯﺍﻤﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻨﻌﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
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‫ﺍﻝﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻔﺴﺎﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻼﻋﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﺌﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﻌﺙ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻲ ﻝﻼﻀﻁﺭﺍﺏ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﻝﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪ 1:‬ﻴﻤﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺭﺍﺤل ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺭﻭﻓﺔ ﻝﻠﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺒﻌﺩ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺒﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﻜﺴﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﺘﻔﻀل ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺃﻨﺸﻁﺘﻬﺎ ﺒﺤﺭﺹ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﺤﻤل ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻌﺎﻤﻠﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﻤﻰ "ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﻭﻁ"‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺇﺒﺎﻥ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ‪ ،‬ﺘﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﺘﺒﺩﺃ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﺎﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺭﻀﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺘﺤﻭﻁ ﻜﺎﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬
‫ﻤﺠﺩﺩﺍﹰ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻜﻥ ﺒﻨﺎ ‪‬ﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻨﻅﺭﹰﺍ ﻷﺭﺒﺎﺤﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻰ‬
‫ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺤﻤل ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﹰﺓ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻰ ﺤﺎل ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻤﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻜﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻴﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﺤﺴﺎﺱ ﺒﺎﻝﺨﻁﺭ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺎﺒﻠﻴﺘﻪ ﻝﻺﻗﺭﺍﺽ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﻜﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻗﺩ‬
‫ﻻ ﻴﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﻀﺦ ﺃﻤﻭﺍل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻠﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺘﺤﻭل ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺅﺩﻯ ﻝﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﻭﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫ﻝﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﻤﺠﺩﺩﹰﺍ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺼﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﻴﻨﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﻝﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻱ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪ ,‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﺨﺫﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﺘﻜﺘﺴﺏ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﻼﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﻨﺫ ﺍﻝﻨﺼﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﺒﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪ ,‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻨﻔﺼﺎﻡ ﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﺞ ﻭﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪ ,‬ﺃﻱ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﻤﻰ ﺒﺎﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺭﻤﺯﻱ ‪.‬ﻭﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻤﻔﺎﻀﻠﺔ ﻤﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‪ ,‬ﻭﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺨﻁﻴﺭ ﻴﻜﺸﻑ ﻋﻥ ﺍﺯﺩﻴﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻁﺎﺒﻊ‬
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‫ﺍﻝﻁﻔﻴﻠﻲ ﻝﻠﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﺼﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (IV‬ﺘﺸﺨﻴﺹ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺠﺫﻭﺭﻫﺎ‪:‬‬

‫ﺭﻏﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻡ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﺤﺘﻰ ﺴﻨﺔ ‪ ،2008‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﺘﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺩﺍﺨل‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻤﻨﺫ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،2000‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻝﺘﺼل ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻗل ﻤﻥ ‪ ،1 % 1‬ﻜﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺘﺯﺍﻤﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻨﻔﺠﺎﺭ ﻓﻘﺎﻋﺔ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺭﻨﺕ‪ ،‬ﺜﻡ ﺃﺨﺫﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ ﻤﻌﻬﺎ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺠﻠﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭ‪ ،‬ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻓﻲ ﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﻨﻭﻝﻭﺠﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺼﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺇﻗﺒﺎل ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﻴﻥ ﺃﻓﺭﺍﺩ‪‬ﺍ ﻭﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻜﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻁﻭﻴل ﺍﻷﺠل‪ ،‬ﻭﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ ﻝﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺴﺎﻫل ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻝﻸﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺫﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺩﺭﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﺩﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺴﻤﺎﺓ ﺒﺎﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ " ﺍﻝﺭﺩﻴﺌﺔ" ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻬﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﺩﺍﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻊ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2006‬ﻭﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺸﺒﻊ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴﻠﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻝﺘﺼل ﺇﻝﻰ ‪25.5‬‬
‫‪ ،%‬ﻭﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻔﻴﺩﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻤﺘﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻗﺎﺩﺭﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺤﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﻡ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺴﻭﺀ‪‬ﺍ ﺒﺎﻨﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺜﺒﺘﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻝﻠﻘﺭﻭﺽ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩﺕ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺤﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﻝﻡ‬
‫ﻴﺴﺘﻁﻴﻌﻭﺍ ﺍﻝﺴﺩﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻝﺘﺼل ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ ،% 93‬ﻭﻓﻘﺩ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ 2‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻤﻠﻜﻴﺘﻬﻡ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺃﺼﺒﺤﻭﺍ‬
‫ﻤﻜﺒﻠﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﻻﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻁﻴﻠﺔ ﺤﻴﺎﺘﻬﻡ‪ .1‬ﻭﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩ ﻝﻠﻁﻴﻥ ﺒﻠﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻤﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻭﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﺒﺎﻻﺘﻔﺎﻕ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺸﺘﺭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺃﻗﺴﺎﻁ ﻭﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﺭﻭﻥ ﻋﻥ ﺩﻓﻊ ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻁ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻤﻁﺎﻝﺒﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺴﺩﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻋﺠﺯﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﻝﺩﻓﻊ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﻭﻴﻀﺎﺕ ﻓﺩﺨﻠﺕ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺌﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺜﺭ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﻼﺱ‪.‬‬
‫ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻝﺨﺼﻡ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ) ﺘﻡ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺸﺎﺒﻬﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﻝﻠﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻝﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﺒﺘﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬
‫ﺃﻗﺴﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻨﻴﻥ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻝﺔ ﻝﻠﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺭﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻭﻥ ﺃﺼﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺯل ﺒﺈﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺘﻘﻭﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﺒﻤﺒﺎﻝﻎ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺼﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﺒﺎﻋﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺼﻡ )ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ(‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺃﺼﺩﺭﺕ ﺒﻤﻭﺠﺒﻬﺎ ﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﻁﺭﺤﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﻭﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺎﺕ ﻝﻠﺘﺩﺍﻭل‬
‫ ﺘﻡ ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ )ﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ( ﻝﻠﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺭﻭﻕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺘﻡ ﻁﺭﺤﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻫﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﺩﺍﻭﻝﻬﺎ ﻤﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻤﺘﺩﺍﺩ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻝﻌﺩﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻭﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺤﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ‪.‬ﻭﺒﺩﺃﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺘﻜﺒﺭ ﻜﻜﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺜﻠﺞ ﻭﺘﻨﺘﺸﺭ ﻝﺘﺸﻤل ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻝﺤﺩﻴﺙ ﻋﻥ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﺼﺩﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﻁﻭل ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ‬
‫ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (V‬ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (1‬ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭﻱ‪:‬ﺇﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭﻱ ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﺎ ﺒﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺴﺘﻬﻴﻤﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻤﺜل ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ )‪ % 98.01‬ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻝﺴﻨﺔ ‪ ،(2007‬ﺇﺫ ﻴﺸﻜل ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺭﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺭ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﻝﻠﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﺘﺭﻭل ﻤﻥ ‪ 147‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭﺍ ﻝﻠﺒﺭﻤﻴل ﻓﻲ ﺸﻬﺭ‬
‫ﻓﻴﻔﺭﻱ ‪ 2008‬ﺇﻝﻰ ‪ 33.87‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭﺍ ﻝﻠﺒﺭﻤﻴل ﻓﻲ ﺸﻬﺭ ﺩﻴﺴﻤﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺒﺎﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ ‪،% 334‬‬
‫ﻤﻤﺎ ﻻ ﺸﻙ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺩ ﺴﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺩﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺘﺩﻨﻲ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻜﻠﻴﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل‬
‫ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺘﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺭﺍﻤﺞ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﻁﻁ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ : (01‬ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭﻱ‬
‫‪34‬وث آ‪5‬د‬
‫ا ا ا ‬
‫ا‪+0‬دي‬
‫اض‬
‫أر ا‬
‫ا إ"ادات‬ ‫‪3‬ه‪8‬ر ر‬

‫ا‪/0‬ل ا‪-‬ز& ‬ ‫ا)(ا' &‪ %‬ا‪ $‬‬ ‫ﺹف ا‪3‬و<ر‬
‫)(ا'‬ ‫ا‪ *+‬‬ ‫ا‪=>"&-‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻝﻪ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭﻱ‪،‬‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻠﺨﻴﺼﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪: 1‬‬
‫‪ .1‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻁﺭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﻝﻠﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺴﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺎﺩﺍﻤﺕ ‪ % 98‬ﻤﻥ ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻓﻭﺘﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ‪ % 50‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺘﻘﻴﻡ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻝﻴﻭﺭﻭ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻌﺎ ﺤﺎﺩﺍ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺩﺍﺨﻴل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻌﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﺇﻥ ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ ‪ 43‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﺎﺘﻨﺎ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺯﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺒﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻻ ﻴﺘﻌﺩﻯ ‪2‬‬
‫‪ ،%‬ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻝﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﺴﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺇﻝﻰ ﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻘﺎﺭﺏ ﺜﻠﺙ ﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﺎﺘﻨﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .3‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ ﻤﻥ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻅﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﻨﻔﺔ )‪ ،(AAA‬ﻭﺒﺎﻋﺘﺭﺍﻑ‬
‫ﻭﺯﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﻨﻭﺍﺏ ﺍﻝﺒﺭﻝﻤﺎﻥ ﺴﻨﺔ ‪ ،2007‬ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺃﻜﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺼﺭﻴﺤﻪ ﺃﻥ ﺠﺯﺀﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ ﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻔﻪ ﻝﺩﻯ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﻥ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﻝﻠﻤﺒﺎﻝﻎ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺩﻋﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺘﺴﺘﻭﺠﺏ ﻤﺯﻴﺩﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺤﻭل ﻤﺼﻴﺭ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻔﻬﺎ ﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺯﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺤﺎ ﻝﻠﺭﺃﻱ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﺤﻭل ﻤﺩﻯ ﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﻨﻔﺔ )‪ (AAA‬ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .4‬ﺇﻥ ﺩﺨﻭل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﺴﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺤﺘﻤﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺤﺭﻭﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺒﺸﻜل ﺤﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻭﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻵﺴﻴﻭﻴﺔ ﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺩﺨل ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺭﻜﻭﺩ ﺘﻤﺘﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻨﺘﻴﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺜﻼﺙ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻁﺒﻘﺎ ﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺨﺒﺭﺍﺀ ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﺘﺭﻭل ﺴﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻭﺘﻨﻬﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻐﺎﺯ ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻻ ﻴﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﺴﻌﺭﻩ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻲ ‪50‬‬
‫‪ %‬ﺒﺎﻝﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﺘﺭﻭل‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺴﺘﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻤﺩﺍﺨﻴل ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺨﻁﻴﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .5‬ﺇﻥ ﺘﺤﻭل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ )ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻜﺴﺎﺩ(‪ ،‬ﺴﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺤﺘﻤﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺤﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .6‬ﺴﺘﺸﻬﺩ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻋﺎ ﻓﺎﺤﺸﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺎﺘﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻗﺎﺭﺒﺕ ‪ 40‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺴﻨﺔ‬
‫‪ ،2008‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻝﻼﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﻀﺨﻤﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺼﻌﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﺎ ﻋﻥ ﻀﺦ ﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻻ ﻴﻘﺎﺒﻠﻬﺎ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (3‬ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃ( ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ﻗﺒﻴل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ‪ (1) :‬ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ‪2007-2005‬‬
‫‪2007‬‬ ‫‪2006‬‬ ‫‪2005‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ‪%‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ‪%‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫‪729‬‬ ‫‪290‬‬ ‫‪52‬‬ ‫‪35‬‬ ‫‪23‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬
‫‪-7‬‬ ‫‪1665‬‬ ‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪1795‬‬ ‫‪1081‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺭ‪ :‬ﻤﻥ ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺜﺔ ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻨﻼﺤﻅ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻭل ﺃﻥ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ﻗﺩ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺘﻴﻥ‬
‫‪ 2006‬ﻭ‪ 2007‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﻝﻼﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺫﺭﻭﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺍﺨﺭ ﺴﻨﺔ ‪2007‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺼﻑ ﺍﻷﻭل ﻤﻥ ‪.2008‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻌﺯﻭ ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺴﻨﺔ ‪ 2006‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻀﺎﻓﺭ ﻋﺩﺓ ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‪ ،‬ﻴﺄﺘﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺴﻬﺎ ﺇﻀﻔﺎﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺸﺭﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻝﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺼﺎﻻﺕ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﻁﺒﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﺤﺼﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﺒﻌﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺭﻭﻗﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺒﺩﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻨﺔ ‪ 2007‬ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﻤﻴل ﺍﻝﺨﻁﻁ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺸﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺭﺍﻜﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻀﺨﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺘﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‪:‬‬

‫‪ 2009‬ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻝﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ .2008‬ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﻴﻌﺭﻓﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻤﻨﺫ ﺜﻼﺜﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺸﺭﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﻷﻥ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻴﻌﺩ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻭﻝﻴﺩ ﻭﺍﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺠﻌل ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺃﻗل‬
‫ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺠﺘﺫﺍﺏ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺒﺎﻗﻲ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻘﻠﺹ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻭﺃﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺘﻬﻴﻤﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺼﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺴﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻭﺍﻝﻐﺎﺯ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺠﻬﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺠﺫﺒﺎ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻘﻠﺹ ﺍﻻﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺎﺠﻡ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻨﺩﻤﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻤﻠﻙ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ) ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﺜل‬
‫ﺃﻫﻡ ﺃﺸﻜﺎل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺠﻨﺴﻴﺎﺕ(‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻌﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻔﻘﺎﺕ‬
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‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻼﻨﺩﻤﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻤﻠﻙ ﺨﻼل ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2008‬ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ % 28‬ﻤﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪.2007‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﻋﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ )ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ( ﻭﻀﻌﻑ ﻤﺭﺍﻜﺯﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻡ ﻝﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻓﺭﻭﻋﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ﺒﺩﻻ ﻤﻥ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﺭﺓ ﺃﺠﺭﻯ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻘﻠﺹ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻡ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺒﻴﻊ ﻓﺭﻭﻋﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺒﻐﺭﺽ ﺍﻝﺩﻋﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﺭﻴﻊ‬
‫ﻝﻤﺭﺍﻜﺯﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺤﺘﻔﺎﻅ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻤﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﻼﺼﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻌﺩﻤﺎ ﺜﺒﺕ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻋﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﻭﺍﺌﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺨﻔﻴﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻭﻓﻌﺎل‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺄﺘﻲ ﺨﻁﻭﺭﺓ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻨﻁﻼﻗﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺸﻜل ﻗﺎﻁﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻷﻜﺒﺭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺒﺤﺠﻡ ﻴﺒﻠﻎ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ 14‬ﺘﺭﻴﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺸﻜل ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ %10‬ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﺘﺤﺘل ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻤﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻝﻸﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻝﺫﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺘﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﻝﻬﺎ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺘﻨﺘﺸﺭ ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺒﺎﻗﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺒﺴﺭﻋﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺼﻌﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﻤﺎ ﺴﺘﺴﻔﺭ ﻋﻨﻪ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﺩﻭﺩ ﺃﻓﻌﺎل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻼﻋﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﺘﺘﺒﻌﻬﺎ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺴﻜﻭﻥ ﻝﺤﺭﻜﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺘﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ ﻤﺎﺒﻴﻥ ﺴﻨﺔ ﻭﺴﻨﺘﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻝﻜﻥ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺴﺎﺭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓ ﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺃﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺸﺩﺓ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻋﻤﻕ ﻭﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﻭﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺒﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺭﻜﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻝﻜﻥ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺘﺅﻜﺩ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺩﺌﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ‪ ،‬ﺘﺴﻠﻁ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻀﻭﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺤﺎﻓﺯﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﺫل ﺍﻝﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﻬﻭﺩ ﻝﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ ﻗﺼﺩ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﻁﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺼﻌﻭﺒﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺫﻱ ﻗﺒل‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .1‬ﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﺤﺴﻥ ﺴﺎﻤﻲ ‪ :‬ﻫل ﺘﺅﺭﺥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻝﻌﻭﺩﺓ ﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ -‬ﺭﺅﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،-‬ﻤﺘﻭﻓﺭ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻹﻝﻜﺘﺭﻭﻨﻲ ‪.(2009/03/04) www.centoryarabic.canalblog.com :‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﻌﻭﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻝﻐﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ‪ 10‬ﺃﻜﺘﻭﺒﺭ ‪.2008‬‬
‫‪ .3‬ﺒﻠﻭﺍﻓﻲ ﺃﺤﻤﺩ‪ ،‬ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻋﻘﺎﺭ‪ ..‬ﺃﻡ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ؟ ﺤﻭﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﻌﺎﺀ ﺒﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺃﺒﺤﺎﺙ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻹﺴﻼﻤﻲ ﺠﺩﺓ‪ 22 ،‬ﺃﻜﺘﻭﺒﺭ‬
‫‪.2008‬‬
‫‪ .4‬ﺤﺎﺯﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﺒﻼﻭﻱ‪.‬ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪,‬ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻝﺔ ﻝﻠﻔﻬﻡ‪ ,‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺒﻁ ‪ , http://www.iid-alraid.com‬ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻁﻼﻉ‪. 2009/01/12:‬‬
‫‪ .5‬ﻋﺒﺩ ﺍﻝﺭﺤﻤﺎﻥ ﻤﺒﺘﻭل ‪ :‬ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺴﻴﻠﺤﻕ ﺃﻀﺭﺍﺭﺍ ﺒﺎﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﻗﺔ ﻋﻤل ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻝﻰ ﻨﺩﻭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻴﻭﻤﻲ ﺤﻭل " ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ "‪ 5 ،‬ﺃﻜﺘﻭﺒﺭ ‪ ،2008‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺒﻁ ‪:‬‬
‫‪http://www.echoroukonline.com/ara/economie/26871.html, (17/01/2009).‬‬
‫‪ .6‬ﻋﺒﺩ ﺍﻝﺭﺤﻴﻡ ﺤﻤﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻔﻜﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﺴﻼﻤﻲ‪ 2009/01/18 ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺒﻁ‪www.isegs.com/forum/login.php:‬‬
‫‪ .7‬ﻋﺒﺩ ﺍﻝﻨﺒﻲ ﺇﺴﻤﺎﻋﻴل ﺍﻝﻁﻭﺨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﻜﺭ ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻤﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﺒﺤﺎﺙ ﻓﻘﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻹﺴﻼﻤﻴﺔ‪ ، http://www.kantakji.com:‬ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﺍﻻﻁﻼﻉ ‪.2009/01/25‬‬
‫‪ .8‬ﻋﺒﺩ ﺍﷲ ﺸﺤﺎﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﻭﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺒﻁ ‪www.pidegypt.org/arabic/azma.doc‬‬
‫‪ ،‬ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﺍﻻﻁﻼﻉ ‪.2009/02/14‬‬
‫‪ .9‬ﻋﺭﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﻭﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺒﻨﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻜﻭﻴﺕ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ‪ 25‬ﺴﻨﺔ ‪.2007‬‬
‫‪ .10‬ﻓﻼﺡ ﺸﻔﻴﻊ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﻭﻱ ﻭﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺒﻁ‪, Http:www.apnoor.se/extra/26.doc :‬‬
‫ﺘﺭﻴﺦ ﺍﻻﻁﻼﻉ ‪.2009/01/12‬‬
‫‪ .11‬ﻓﺅﺍﺩ ﻤﺭﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﺠﺩﺩ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ‪ ,‬ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻜﺘﺏ ﻋﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ ,147‬ﺴﻨﺔ ‪.1990‬‬
‫‪ .12‬ﻗﺩﻱ ﻋﺒﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﻴﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ‪ 46‬ﺭﺒﻴﻊ‬
‫‪.2009‬‬
‫‪ .13‬ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﻋﺒﺩ ﺍﻝﺤﻠﻴﻡ ﻋﻤﺭ‪ ،‬ﻗﺭﺍﺀﺓ ﺇﺴﻼﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﻗﺔ ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻨﺩﻭﺓ »ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻤﻨﻅﻭﺭ ﺇﺴﻼﻤﻲ ﻭﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ«‪ ،‬ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻫﺭ‪ 11 ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺃﻜﺘﻭﺒﺭ ‪.2008‬‬
‫‪ .14‬ا‪ O_MST‬ا‪HS~T O]FYT‬ن ا‪HS}LMq‬ر‪ ،‬ا‪F{|T‬ة ا‪ O]`oRT‬ا‪t‬و‪. 2009 yT‬‬
‫‪15.‬‬ ‫‪Robert Boyer, Mario Dehove, Dominique Plihon, les Crises Financières, Paris : la‬‬
‫‪Documentation Française, 2004, p 15.‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﻝﻼﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫*‬
‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﻝﻴﺩ ﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﺼﺎﻓﻲ‬
‫**‬
‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﺸﻘﻴﺭﻱ ﻨﻭﺭﻱ ﻤﻭﺴﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻠﺨﺹ ﺒﺎﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻴﻬﺩﻑ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﻝﻸﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﺍﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ‪ 2008/1/2‬ﻭﻝﻐﺎﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ،2009/3/1‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺜﺎﻥ ﺒﺄﺨﺫ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻝﻌﺸﺭ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺨﻤﺴﺔ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺘﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺃﺼﻭل ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺨﻤﺴﺔ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺘﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺼﻭل ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻝﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬
‫) ‪ (T-test‬ﺘﻭﺼل ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺜﺎﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﺜﺭﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺃﺼﻭل ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺼﻭل ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻴﺸﻜل ﻋﻨﺼﺭ ﺃﻤﺎﻥ ﻭﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻤﺤﻁ ﺃﻨﻅﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺃﺠﻤﻊ ﻭﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺇﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺃﺼﺤﺎﺏ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﻝﻤﺎ ﺘﻌﻁﻴﻪ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻋﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﻭﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﻤﻨﺫ ﺨﻤﺴﻴﻥ ﻋﺎﻤﺎ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﻭﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﻝﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻝﻬﺎ ﻫﻴﻜل ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻲ ﻭﺠﻬﺎﺕ ﺭﻗﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﻻ ﺘﺨﻠﻭ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻷﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻌﻁﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﻤﻲ ﻗﻭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﻤﻲ ﻴﻘﺎﺱ ﺒﺄﺩﺍﺀ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻗﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺼﻠﺔ ﻓﻴﻪ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻤﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜل ﻫﻴﻜل ﻝﻪ ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬
‫ﺨﻠل ﻓﻲ ﺃﻱ ﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻭﻤﻨﺫ ﻨﺸﻭﺀ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻌﺭﻀﺕ ﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺁﺨﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺃﺸﺩﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺃﺠﻤﻊ ﻫﻲ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺃﻴﻠﻭل ‪ 2008‬ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺼﺩﻤﺕ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻝﻤﺎ ﺘﺭﻜﺘﻪ ﻤﻥ ﻀﺭﺭ ﺒﺎﻝﻎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺴﺘﻤﺭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﻀﺭﺍﺭ ﻝﺴﻨﻴﻥ ‪ .‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻝﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻭﻤﺤﺩﺜﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﻨﻭﻝﻭﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺨﻠﻘﺕ ﺘﺸﺎﺒﻜﺎ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﻁﻭﺭﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﺎ ﺤﺼل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺇﻨﺘﻘل ﺒﺎﻝﻁﺒﻊ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﻴﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﻝﻤﺎ ﻝﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﻭ ﺒﺂﺨﺭ ﻤﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﻝﻤﺎ ﺃﺤﺩﺜﺘﻪ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺫﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺸﺘﻰ ﺒﺭﺯﺕ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻨﺎﻭل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﻭﺘﺴﻠﻴﻁ ﺍﻝﻀﻭﺀ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺩﺓ ﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ ﺘﺨﺹ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺘﺭﻜﺘﻪ ﻤﺠﺭﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﺴﺘﺎﺫ ﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩ‪ ،‬ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺴﺭﺍﺀ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻬﺎﺸﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫*‬
‫ﺃﺴﺘﺎﺫ ﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩ‪ ،‬ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺘﺭﺍ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻬﺎﺸﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫**‬
‫ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺤﺼﻠﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻴﻠﻭل ‪ 2008‬ﺃﺜﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻭﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﻤﺘﺩ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﻁﺒﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺨﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻜﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺃﺜﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﻀﺢ ﺍﻹﺨﺘﻼﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺤﺼل ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻜﻴﻑ ﺃﺜﺭﺕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻭﻫل ﻜﺎﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﺃﻡ ﺴﻠﺒﻲ‪.‬‬
‫* ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻜﻴﻑ ﺃﺜﺭﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ؟‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻜﻴﻑ ﺃﺜﺭﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ؟‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻤﺎﻫﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺼﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ؟‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺼﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ؟‬
‫ ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﺫﻭ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﺫﻭ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ ﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﻭﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﻤﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﺍﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﺍﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺃﺨﺫ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ )‪(5‬‬
‫ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺘﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﺍﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭ)‪ (5‬ﺘﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﺍﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺌﻲ ﺒﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ‪:‬‬ ‫‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻹﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻝﻔﺠﺎﺌﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻨﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ) ﻜﺎﻵﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﺒﻨﻴﺔ (‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ) ﻜﺎﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ (‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﺍﻨﻬﺎﺭﺕ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺃﺼﻭل ﻤﺎ ﻓﺠﺄﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻗﺩ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﻠﻜﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺃﻭ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻝﺘﻤﺘﺩ‬
‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺒﺎﻗﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ‪ :‬ﺤﺼﻴﻠﺔ ﺇﻤﺘﻼﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ )ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺃﻭ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ(‪،‬ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻤﻠﻜﻴﺔ )ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺒﺎﻨﻭﺍﻋﻬﺎ(ﺍﻭ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ )ﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺒﺄﻨﻭﺍﻋﻬﺎ( ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻋﺎﺌﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺘﻤﺜل ﺃﺼﻼ ﻝﻴﺱ ﻝﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺒﺤﺩ ﺫﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺇﺫ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﻜﻤﻥ ﺒﺎﻝﺠﻬﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ‪ :‬ﻴﺴﻤﻰ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﻤﺘﻰ ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﻝﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺤﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﺎﺯﺓ ﺃﺼل ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ) ﻜﺎﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻫﺏ( ﻭﻴﻘﺼﺩ ﺒﺎﻷﺼل ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻫﻭ ﻜل ﺃﺼل ﻝﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺩ ﺫﺍﺘﻪ ﻭﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻪ‬
‫ﻤﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﺇﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺸﻜل ﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﻴﻁﻠﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﺇﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻝﻤﺎ ﺘﺤﻘﻘﻪ ﻤﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺜﺭﻭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻓﻔﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ) ﻴﻭﺴﻑ‪( 2009 ،‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻴﻭﺴﻑ‪ ،‬ﻴﻭﺴﻑ ﺨﻠﻴﻔﺔ )‪ (2009‬ﺒﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺠﻴﺔ‪. ،‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﻗﺩ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻠﺴل ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﺭﺠﻭﻉ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻔﻜﺭ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺩﻯ ﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺒﺈﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻭﺘﺭﺍﺠﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻅل‬
‫ﺸﻴﻭﻉ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺨﺭﺠﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺴﺘﺤﺼﺩ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻕ ﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻀﺭﺭﻴﻥ ﺃﻭ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻷﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﻤﻌﻪ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺃﻭ ﺒﺈﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻭ ﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺼﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ) ‪( Taylor , 2008‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺇﺴﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺩﺨﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺸﻬﺭ ﺘﻤﻭﺯ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2007‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻤل‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻀﻌﺎﻑ ﻋﻤل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻭﻓﺎﻗﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﻭﺼﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺭﺠﻭﻉ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻅﻤﺔ ﻝﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ( Berrone , 2008‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ )‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﻨﺎﻗﺸﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻜﺈﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻜﺸﺭﻜﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺘﺄﻜﻴﺩﺍ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺃﺸﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺨﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﻘﻭﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺨﻁﺎﺭ ﺯﺍﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻘﺎﺏ ﻝﻠﻤﺩﻴﺭ ﻭﻻ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﺭﺘﻜﺎﺒﻪ ﺃﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺇﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺓ‬
‫ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺎﻤل‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺼل ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺤﺎﻓﺯﺍ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺴﻬﻼ ﻝﺤل ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل‬
‫ﺴﺭﻴﻊ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻝﻠﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫ﺘﺘﺩﺍﻭل ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻝﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻵﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺎ ﻓﻌﻠﺘﻪ ﺒﺈﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺘﻨﺎ ﻭﻜﻴﻑ ﺃﺜﺭﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺘﻨﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﺤﻭﻝﺕ‬
‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﺼﺒﺢ )ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ( ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻥ ﺃﻤﺘﺩﺕ ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻝﺘﺸﻤل ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ‬
‫ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﺒﻤﺜﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻰ ﻝﻤﺎ ﻨﺸﻬﺩﻩ ﺍﻝﻴﻭﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺇﻀﻁﺭﺍﺒﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺠﺫﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻝﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻭﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺇﺯﺩﻴﺎﺩ ﺃﻋﺒﺎﺀ ﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻋﻘﺎﺏ‬
‫ﻤﻭﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺇﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﻫﺒﻭﻁ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﻨﺫ ﻋﻘﻭﺩ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺠﻭﺯﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺯﻤﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻨﺎﺠﻡ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﺎ ﻋﻥ ﻜﻭﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻴﺭﺍﺩ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺨﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺃﺩﻯ ﻷﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻷﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ‬
‫‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﺠﻴﻥ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺇﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺘﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺭﻱ ) ﻗﻨﺩﺡ‪ ( 2008 ،‬ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﺘﺸﺎﺒﻜﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺤﻔﺯﺕ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻭﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻘﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺯﻤﺎﻥ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﺒﺭﺯ ﺍﻻﺴﺒﺎﺏ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺇﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ )‪ (2006-2001‬ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻭﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺭﻜﻭﺩ‬ ‫‪-1‬‬
‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺤﺼﻭل ﺘﺤﻭل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﻝﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻹﺴﻜﺎﻨﻲ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-2‬‬
‫ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻭﺍﻝﺒﻴﻊ ﻝﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ ﺫﻭ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﺨﻠﻬﻡ ﻤﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﻭﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻝﻠﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻥ ﻭﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺜﻴﻕ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-3‬‬
‫ﺇﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻹﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫‪-4‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺤﺼل ﻋﺎﻤﻲ )‪. (2006 ،2005‬‬
‫ﺇﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻠﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﻭﺇﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺠﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-5‬‬
‫ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺇﻨﻔﺠﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻓﻘﺎﻋﺔ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-6‬‬
‫ﺘﺴﻨﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-7‬‬
‫ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﺍﻹﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻲ ﺒﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺘﺼﻨﻴﻔﺎ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺎ ﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﻻﻨﻬﺎ ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ‬ ‫‪-8‬‬
‫ﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻗﻭﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫•‬
‫ﻴﺭﻯ )ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺴﺒﺔ‪ ( 2008 ،‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺒﻤﻨﺄﻯ ﻋﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻗﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺸﺎﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺠﻴﺩ ﺨﻼل ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،2008‬ﻭﺴﻼﻤﺔ ﺃﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﺨﺭﻯ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻭﺼﻔﻭﺍ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺒﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺒـ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﻝﻐﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺼﻐﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺩﻓﻊ ﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻴﻭﻤﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﺘﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺭﻏﻡ ﻋﺩﻡ‬
‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﺒﺭﺭﺍﺕ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻅﻬﺭ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺒﺎﻨﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺴﺘﻔﻴﺩ ﺇﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻝﻌل‬
‫ﺫﻝﻙ ﻴﺒﺩﻭ ﺠﻠﻴ‪‬ﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺇﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺍﺘﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻹﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺴﻬﻡ ﻭﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺨﻔﺽ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺴﻴﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺘﻴﺢ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺘﺨﺼﻴﺹ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺭﻕ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺘﺸﻜل ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻹﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻋﻡ‬
‫ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﻨﻤﻭﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗل ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺘﺸﻜل ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﻀﺎﻑ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺇﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺇﺴﺘﻴﺭﺍﺩﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺇﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬
‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻘﻤﺢ ﻭﺍﻝﺫﺭﺓ ﻜﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻏﺫﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺇﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺤﺎﺱ ﻭﻤﺎ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻜﻤﻭﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻗﺩ ﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﺘﺄﺜﺭﺍ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺃﻨﻪ‬
‫ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻝﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻤﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺒﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﻝﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻊ ﻓﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺨﻔﺽ ﺘﻜﺎﻝﻴﻑ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﻐﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻅﻔﻴﻥ ﻝﺩﻴﻬﺎ ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺴﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺭﻓﻊ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻁﺎﻝﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻊ‬
‫ﻋﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻝﺨﺼﻭﺹ ﺍﻻﻋﻭﺍﻡ ‪ 2007‬ﻭ‪ .2008‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻰ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺴﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﻌﺎل ﻭﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺴﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻲ ﻝﻠﻭﻗﻭﻑ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﺭﺀ ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‪....‬‬
‫ﺍﻤﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻼﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺸﻬﺩﺕ ﻴﻭﻤﺎ ﻫﺒﻁﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺩﻨﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻫﻭﺕ ﻓﻴﻪ‬
‫ﻭﻫﺒﻁﺕ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻻﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺴﺘﺔ ﺩﻭﻻﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻰ ‪ 81.87‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻝﻠﺒﺭﻤﻴل‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻫﺏ ﻨﺤﻭ‬
‫‪ %3‬ﻤﻊ ﺍﻗﺒﺎل ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻜﻤﻼﺫ ﺁﻤﻥ ﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﻡ ﻤﻊ ﻫﺒﻭﻁ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﻬﻡ ﺒﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻭﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻐﺘﺭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺍﻥ ﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2008‬ﺘﺴﺠل ﻋﺠﺯﺍ ﺃﻗل ﺒﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ‪ ،‬ﻤﺸﻴﺭﺍ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻻ ﺘﺯﺍل ﺘﺤﺘﻔﻅ ﺒﺠﺎﺫﺒﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺩﻭل ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﻥ ﺍﻹﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺸﻬﺩﺘﻪ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤ‪‬ﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭل ﻴﻭﻤﻲ ﺘﺩﺍﻭل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﻭﻉ ﺍﻷﻭل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻭﺨﺴﺎﺭﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫‪ 193‬ﻨﻘﻁﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺤﺩﺙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﺃﻭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻝﻬﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﺤﻤﻴ‪‬ﺔ ﻤﻤ‪‬ﺎ ﻴﺠﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ‪،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺍﻁﻤﺌﻨﺎﻨﺎ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺤﻤﻲ ﺒﺎﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻝﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﻴﻥ ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺇﻗﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤ‪‬ﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﻊ ﺃﻭل ﻴﻭﻤﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺠﺎﺀ‬
‫ﻭﺴﻁ ﻤﺒﺎﻝﻐﺘﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺩﻓﻊ ﻝﻤﻭﺠﺔ ﺒﻴﻭﻉ ﻏﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻤﺒﺭﺭﺓ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻨﺠﺎﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺘﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺓ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻹﻝﺘﺯﺍﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻗﺎﺒﻠﻪ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﻼﺕ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﻫﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻜﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺇﻨﺘﻘﻠﺕ ﺒﻌﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻭﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻭﺭﺍﻓﻕ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﺒﺎﻝﻐﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﻤﻭﻨﺔ ﻭﺘﺒﻌﻪ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺭﻭﺽ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺇﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺜﻤﺎﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﻋﻨﺩﻫﺎ ﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻨﺘﻘﻠﺕ ﻤﻥ ﻝــ ﻭﻭل ﺴﺘﺭﻴﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﻴﻥ ﺴﺘﺭﻴﺕ ﺃﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻲ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺒﺎﻗﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﺸﺎﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺩﺭﺱ ﻝﻠﺩﻭل ﻝﻠﻌﻭﺩﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺇﺘﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻁﺒﻘﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﺭﺍﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻏﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺍﻭل ﻓﻲ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺸﻬﺭ ﺃﻴﻠﻭل ﻗﺩ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ )‪ (357،8‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻤﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ )‪ (%7.25‬ﻤﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺍﻭل ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒﻠﻬﻡ )‪(327،1‬‬
‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺫﻝﻙ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﻗﺩ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ )‪ (30،7‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺨﻼل ﺸﻬﺭ ﺃﻴﻠﻭل‪.‬‬
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‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫•‬
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‫‪- www.alaswaq.net/articles‬‬
‫ﻜﺸﻔﺕ ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺎﺕ ﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ %69‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﻬﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻲ ﺒﺒﻠﻭﻏﻪ ‪ 5‬ﻤﻼﻴﻴﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﻤﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 16.4‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻲ )ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻴﻌﺎﺩل ‪ 0.71‬ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻝﻡ ﻴﻐﻴﺭ ﺸﻴﺌﹰﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻨﺎﺼﻔﺔ ﺘﻤﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺤﺘﻰ ﺘﻔﻭﻗﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺤﻭﺍﺫﻫﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪.%51.4‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺭﻯ ﺨﺒﺭﺍﺀ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺠﺭﺩ ﺼﺩﻭﺭ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ ‪-‬ﻭﻝﻴﺱ ﺴﺎﻝﺒﺔ‪ -‬ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻜﻤﺤﺼﻠﺔ ﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻝﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﺃﻤﺭ ﺠﻴﺩ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺘﻌﺒﻴﺭﻫﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺠﺘﻬﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻗﺭﺍﺀﺘﻬﻡ ﻝﻸﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻬﺩﺌﺔ ﺭﻭﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﻜﺒﺢ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺫﻋﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﻬﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﺭﺍﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻏﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺍﻭل ﻓﻲ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺸﻬﺭ ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ ‪ /‬ﻜﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ ‪ 2009‬ﺒﻠﻐﺕ‬
‫‪ 163.1‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻤﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ ‪ %27.2‬ﻤﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺍﻭل ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻗﺒﻠﻬﻡ ﻝﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ‪ 158.1‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﻭﻀﺤﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺘﻤﻠﻙ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﺘﺼل ﺍﻝﻰ ‪ %50‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺩ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻓﻀل ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺸﺭﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﺎﺫﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﻨﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻔﺯﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻤﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺏ‪ ،‬ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺸﺭﺍﺌﻬﻡ ﺨﻼل ﺸﻬﺭ‬
‫ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻲ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ 146.3‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺸﻜﻠﺕ ﻤﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ ‪ %89.7‬ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﻴﻥ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺏ ‪ 16.8‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺸﻜﻠﺕ ﻤﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ ‪ %10.3‬ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﻴﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺒﻘﺎﺀ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻭ ﺃﻤﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻏﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻴﻌﻠﻡ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪2009‬‬
‫ﻫﻭ ﻋﺎﻡ ﺼﻌﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﺴﺭﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﺒﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺩل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺏ ﻭﺍﻷﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺯﺍﻝﻭﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻭﻝﻡ ﻴﻐﺎﺩﺭﻭﻫﺎ ﻭﻴﺘﺩﺍﻭﻝﻭﻥ ﺒﻴﻌﺎ ﻭﺸﺭﺍ ‪‬ﺀ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺏ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ‪ 138.0‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺸﻜﻠﺕ ﻤﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ ‪ %87.3‬ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺒﻴﻊ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺒﻴﻊ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺏ ‪ 20.1‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺸﻜﻠﺕ ﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ ‪ %12.7‬ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺒﻴﻊ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﻴﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻻ ﻨﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻨﻘﺎﺭﻥ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2008‬ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺍﻤﺘﺎﺯ ﻓﻲ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺘﻪ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻔﺎﺅل ﺒﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2009‬ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺘﺴﻴﻁﺭ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻷﺠﻭﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺸﺎﺅﻤﻴﺔ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﻗﺏ ﺘﺴﻴﻁﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﻜﺎﻨﻭﺍ ﺃﺭﺩﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﺃﻭ ﻏﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺃﺭﺩﻨﻴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﺴﻴﺘﺒﺩﺩ ﺍﻨﺤﺴﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻴﺘﺠﺫﺭ ﻤﻊ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﺴﻨﺔ ‪ 2008‬ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻝﻠﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺒﻠﻎ ‪309.8‬‬
‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ‪ 466.2‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﻝﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪، 2007‬ﻨﺠﺩ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻌﹰﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ ‪.%50‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﺃﻨﻬﺕ ﺘﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ %25‬ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻗﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻤﻭﺩﻋﺔ ﻤﻜﺎﺴﺏ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ %32‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﺼﻑ ﺍﻷﻭل ﻤﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻭﺼﻑ ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﺍﻷﻗﺴﻰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﺴﻴﻴل ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺒﺘﺴﻴﻴل ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻠﻜﻭﻨﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﻝﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﻤﺭﺍﻜﺯﻫﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻠﺩﺍﻨﻬﻡ ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺠﻴﻴﻥ ﻤﻨﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﻝﺘﺘﻀﺢ ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺘﻭﺠﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻲ ﺒﺸﻜﻠﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻨﻬﺎﺌﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺤﺴﺏ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺸﻬﺭ ﻜﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ ‪ 2009‬ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ %49.4‬ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺸﻜﻠﺕ ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺏ‬
‫‪ ،%34.7‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﺸﻜﻠﺕ ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺏ ‪ %14.7‬ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻗﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻠﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ‪ ،%51.4‬ﻭﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ‪ ،%34.3‬ﻭﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ‪.%53.2‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻲ ﻝﻠﺒﺤﺙ‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻝﻭﺼﻔﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺇﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ ) ‪ (SPSS‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻹﺴﺘﺨﺭﺍﺝ ﺍﻝﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺌﻭﻴﺔ ﻝﻭﺼﻑ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺘﻡ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻋﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﻻﺴﻬﻡ ﻝﺨﻤﺱ‬
‫ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺨﻤﺱ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻋﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ‪ 2008\1‬ﺍﻝﻰ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ‪ 2009\3‬ﻭﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﻗﺒل‬
‫ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻱ ﻗﺒل ﺸﻬﺭ ‪ 2008\8‬ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻱ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺸﻬﺭ ‪ 2008\8‬ﺍﻝﻰ ﺸﻬﺭ ‪ 2009/3‬ﻝﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻋﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﻜل ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ ﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﺇﺴﺘﺨﺭﺍﺝ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ ﻹﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻱ ﻫل ﺃﺜﺭﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺃﻡ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻭﻫل ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﻡ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻝﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻋﺎﺌﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﻬﻡ = ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻻﻏﻼﻕ – ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺘﺎﺡ‬

‫× ‪100‬‬
‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻻﻏﻼﻕ‬
‫ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ ﻭﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ‬

‫ﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺜﺎﻥ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺕ )‪ (Independent-Sample t-test‬ﻝﻠﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺒل ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺠﺩﺍﻭل ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﻭﻀﺢ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ - 1‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ‪ t- test‬ﻝﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻻﻝﺔ‬
‫‪0.008‬‬ ‫‪2.668‬‬ ‫‪1.94213‬‬ ‫‪16.24906‬‬ ‫‪%0.93‬‬ ‫ﻗﺒل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫‪1.47199‬‬ ‫‪13.16592‬‬ ‫‪%-5.47‬‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻭل ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺕ = ‪ 2.668‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺩﺍﻝﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ‪ 008.0‬ﻭﻋﻠﻲ ﻭﺒﻨﺎﺀﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻨﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻐﺩﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻨﻘﺒل ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻯ ﺃﻨﻪ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﻕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺒل ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ )=‪(%0.93‬‬
‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ )=‪. (%-5.47‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﺜﺭﺕ ﻭﺒﺸﻜل ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 2‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫‪0.002‬‬ ‫‪3.227‬‬ ‫‪3.10644‬‬ ‫‪18.37793‬‬ ‫‪%4.88‬‬ ‫ﻗﺒل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫‪2.00325‬‬ ‫‪12.66966‬‬ ‫‪%6.76-‬‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻭل ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺕ = ‪ 3.227‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺩﺍﻝﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ‪ 0.002‬ﻭﺒﻨﺎﺀﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻨﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﻝﻌﺩﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﻘﺒل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ )=‪. (%-6.76‬ﻭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﺜﺭﺕ ﻭﺒﺸﻜل ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 3‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬

‫‪0.703‬‬ ‫‪0.382‬‬ ‫‪2.17781‬‬ ‫‪12.88409‬‬ ‫‪-3.0134‬‬ ‫ﻗﺒل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫‪2.16342‬‬ ‫‪13.68264‬‬ ‫‪-4.1920‬‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬

‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻭل ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺕ= ‪ 0.382‬ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺩﻻﻝﺘﻬﺎ =‪ 0.703‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺩﺍﻝﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﻨﺎﺀﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻨﻘﺒل ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻨﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻯ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﻕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺒل ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 4‬ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﻭﻥ‬
‫‪0.54‬‬ ‫‪0.625‬‬ ‫‪4.38429‬‬ ‫‪11.59974‬‬ ‫‪%-1.96‬‬ ‫ﻗﺒل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫‪6.98587‬‬ ‫‪19.75903‬‬ ‫‪%-7.29‬‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻭل ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺕ=‪ 0.625‬ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺩﻻﻝﺘﻬﺎ = ‪ 0.54‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺩﺍﻝﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﻨﺎﺀﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻨﻘﺒل ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻯ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﻕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺒل ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﻭﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 5‬ﻤﻴﺜﺎﻕ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫‪0.72‬‬ ‫‪-0.36‬‬ ‫‪8.57339‬‬ ‫‪22.68305‬‬ ‫‪%-5.79‬‬ ‫ﻗﺒل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫‪6.95949‬‬ ‫‪19.68442‬‬ ‫‪%-1.85‬‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻭل ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺕ=‪ 0.36-‬ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺩﻻﻝﺘﻬﺎ = ‪ 0.72‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺩﺍﻝﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﻨﺎﺀﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻨﻘﺒل ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻯ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﻕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺒل ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻤﻴﺜﺎﻕ‬
‫ﻝﻺﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 6‬ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺎﻤﺨﺔ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪1.86373‬‬ ‫‪4.93096‬‬ ‫‪%10.1‬‬ ‫ﻗﺒل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫‪3.81435‬‬ ‫‪10.78862‬‬ ‫‪-0.12%‬‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬

‫ﺃﻯ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﻕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺒل ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺎﻤﺨﺔ‬
‫ﻝﻺﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 7‬ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻔﻅﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫‪0.86‬‬ ‫‪-0.175‬‬ ‫‪4.46329‬‬ ‫‪11.80876‬‬ ‫‪-2.22%‬‬ ‫ﻗﺒل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫‪4.21808‬‬ ‫‪11.93052‬‬ ‫‪%-1.15‬‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻭل ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺕ=‪ 0.175-‬ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺩﻻﻝﺘﻬﺎ = ‪ 0.86‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺩﺍﻝﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﻨﺕﺀﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻨﻘﺒل ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻨﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻯ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﻕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺒل ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻔﻅﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 8‬ﺍﻋﻤﺎﺭ ﻝﻠﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫‪0.60‬‬ ‫‪0.54‬‬ ‫‪5.37009‬‬ ‫‪14.20791‬‬ ‫‪%4-2.2‬‬ ‫ﻗﺒل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫‪4.62626‬‬ ‫‪13.08503‬‬ ‫‪-6.02%‬‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻭل ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺕ=‪ 0.54‬ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺩﻻﻝﺘﻬﺎ = ‪ 0.60‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺩﺍﻝﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺫﻝﻙ ﻨﻘﺒل ﺒﺎﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﺭﻓﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻯ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﻕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺒل ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺇﻋﻤﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻝﻠﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 9‬ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬

‫‪0.16‬‬ ‫‪1.49‬‬ ‫‪2.21702‬‬ ‫‪5.86568‬‬ ‫‪-4.92%‬‬ ‫ﻗﺒل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫‪3.86546‬‬ ‫‪10.93317‬‬ ‫‪%-11.82‬‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬

‫ﺃﻯ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﻕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺒل ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﺭﻜﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ ﻝﻺﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪- 10‬‬
‫‪0.39‬‬ ‫‪0.88‬‬ ‫‪1.44959‬‬ ‫‪3.83526‬‬ ‫‪%-1.73‬‬ ‫ﻗﺒل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫‪4.60007‬‬ ‫‪13.01097‬‬ ‫‪%3-6.2‬‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻭل ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺕ=‪ 0.88‬ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺩﻻﻝﺘﻬﺎ = ‪ 0.39‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺩﺍﻝﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﻨﺎﺀﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺎﻨﻨﺎ ﻨﻘﺒل ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻯ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﻕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺒل ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪.‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻝﻺﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻤﻭﺍل ﺍﻨﻔﺴﺕ‪- 11‬‬
‫‪0.01‬‬ ‫‪2.93‬‬ ‫‪4.16763‬‬ ‫‪11.02652‬‬ ‫‪7.87%‬‬ ‫ﻗﺒل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫‪3.85744‬‬ ‫‪10.91048‬‬ ‫‪%-8.74‬‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻭل ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺕ = ‪ 2.93‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺩﺍﻝﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ‪ ،0.01‬ﻭﺒﻨﺎﺀﺍ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺈﻨﻨﺎ ﻨﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﻘﺒل‬
‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ )=‪ . (%-8.73‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﺜﺭﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻤﻭﺍل ﺍﻨﻔﺴﺕ ﻭﻫﻭ ﺘﺎﺜﻴﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪– 12‬‬
‫‪0.04‬‬ ‫‪2.24‬‬ ‫‪11.28322‬‬ ‫‪29.85260‬‬ ‫‪%322.1‬‬ ‫ﻗﺒل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫‪3.91500‬‬ ‫‪11.07328‬‬ ‫‪-3.24%‬‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻭل ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺕ = ‪ 2.24‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺩﺍﻝﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ‪ ،0.04‬ﻭﺒﻨﺎﺀﺍ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺈﻨﻨﺎ ﻨﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﻘﺒل‬
‫ﺃﻯ ﺃﻨﻪ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﻕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺒل ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫)=‪ (%22.13‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ )=‪ . (%-3.24‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻝﻺﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 13‬ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ‬
‫‪0.32‬‬ ‫‪1.02‬‬ ‫‪5.79615‬‬ ‫‪15.33517‬‬ ‫‪-1.90%‬‬ ‫ﻗﺒل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫‪2.97852‬‬ ‫‪8.42454‬‬ ‫‪-8.31%‬‬ ‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻭل ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺕ=‪ 1.02‬ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺩﻻﻝﺘﻬﺎ = ‪ 0.32‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺩﺍﻝﺔ ‪ .‬ﺒﻨﺕﺀﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺈﻨﻨﺎ ﻨﻘﺒل ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻨﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻯ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﺭﻭﻕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺒل ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ‬
‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ -1‬ﻜﺎﻥ ﺘﺎﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻭﺴﺒﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻻﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻭﻝﻰ ﻝﻤﺎ ﻨﺸﻬﺩﻩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻻ ﺸﻙ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﺨﺭﻯ ﺍﺩﺕ ﻝﺤﺩﻭﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻻﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﻡ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﺜﺭﺕ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ )ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ( ﻭﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩ ﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺅﺜﺭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪.‬ﻭﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻝﻌﺩﻡ ﺴﻴﻭﻝﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻺﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﻌﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺒﻴﻊ ﻝﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ ﻭﻭﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺘﻜﺭﺭ ﻓﻘﺩ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻋﻭﺍﺌﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ )‪ (3.0134-‬ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ )‪.(4.1920-‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﺜﺭﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻘﺩ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﻗﺒل‬
‫ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ )‪ (% 4.88‬ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﺍﻝﻰ ) ‪ . (% 6.76-‬ﺇﻥ ﺴﺒﺏ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻝﻭ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﻤﻨﺨﻘﺽ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻨﺎ‬
‫ﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -5‬ﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺴﻭﻕ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺒﺎﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺘﺄﺜﺭﺍ ﻁﻔﻴﻑ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﻼﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻘﺩ‬
‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﺴﻭﻕ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ‪ % 24.9‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩﺓ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﺩل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﻤﺎﺩﻱ ﻗﻭﻱ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻥ ﺴﻭﻕ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺴﻭﺍﻕ‪.‬ﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻭﻕ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺒﺴﺴﺏ ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﻨﻔﺴﻴﺔ ﻝﺩﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻬﺒﻭﻁ ﺍﻝﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺭﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻭل ﻴﻭﻤﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -6‬ﺇﻥ ﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﺴﻴﻁ ﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﻫﻲ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺴﻼﻤﺔ ﺍﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﺸﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻝﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-1‬‬
‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻭﻋﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﻋﻁﺎﺌﻬﻡ ﻤﺤﺎﻀﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﻝﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻝﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﻭﺘﺠﻨﺏ ﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-2‬‬
‫ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻜﻔل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺁﻤﻥ ﺒﻌﻴﺩ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-3‬‬
‫ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻻﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﺤل ﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻻﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺴﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﻁﺒﻊ‬ ‫‪-4‬‬
‫ﻫﺫﺍ ﺴﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺍﻭ ﺒﺎﺨﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻨﺎ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺨﻭﻑ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺫﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻤﺜل‬ ‫‪-5‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻝﻡ ﻴﺘﺎﺜﺭ ﺒﺎﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﻤﻭﻨﺔ ﻭﺒﻌﻴﺩﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺫﺒﺫﺒﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫‪-6‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻁﻭﻴل ﺍﻻﺠل ﻴﻜﻔل ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻝﻭﻀﻌﻪ ﻭﺍﻹﺒﺘﻌﺎﺩ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-7‬‬
‫ﺘﺄﻫﻴل ﺍﻝﻭﺴﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﺍﻻﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﺠﻌﻠﻬﻡ ﺃﻜﻔﺎﺀ ﻝﻠﺘﻌﺎﻁﻲ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﻅﺭﻭﻑ‬ ‫‪-8‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺠﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﻝﻴﻜﻭﻨﻭ ﻗﺎﺩﺭﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻻﻓﻀل ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻓﻀل ﺇﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻻﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﻤﻴﺯ ﺒﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-9‬‬
‫‪ -10‬ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻹﻨﺯﻻﻕ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻁﻑ ﻭﺍﻹﺤﺴﺎﺱ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻹﺴﺭﺍﻉ ﺒﺎﻝﺒﻴﻊ ﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻝﺨﻭﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺇﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ )ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻬﺒﻭﻁ( ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻨﻁﻠﻕ ﺘﻤﻨﻲ ﺇﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﺇﻨﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﺍﻝﺴﻌﺭ )ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺼﻌﻭﺩ(‪ .‬ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﹰﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﻘل ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﻁﻕ‪ .‬ﻭﻀﻊ ﺨﻁﺔ ﻭﺍﻀﺤﺔ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺘﺤﺩﺩ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬
‫ﻭﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻝﻠﺩﺨﻭل ﻭﺍﻝﺨﺭﻭﺝ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫ﻗﻨﺩﺡ‪ ،‬ﻋﺩﻝﻲ‪ .2008 ،‬ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪ .‬ﺠﻤﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻥ‪.‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺸﺭ ‪.‬ﺍﻝﻤﺠﻠﺩ ‪.27‬ﻜﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻭل ‪.2008‬‬ ‫‪-1‬‬
‫ﻗﻨﺩﺡ‪ ،‬ﻋﺩﻝﻲ‪ ،2008 ،‬ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻥ‪ .‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺴﻊ‪ .‬ﺍﻝﻤﺠﻠﺩ ‪ .27‬ﺍﻴﻠﻭل‪.‬‬ ‫‪-2‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻤﻁﺭ‪ ،‬ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‪. 2006 ،‬ﺍﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﺌل ﻝﻠﻨﺸﺭ‪ .‬ﺼﻔﺤﺔ ‪.15‬‬
‫‪www. Ammanstock.net. -4‬‬
‫‪ -5‬ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻴﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﺃﺭﺸﺩ ‪. 2004.‬ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺒﺎﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‪:‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﻴﺭﺓ ﻝﻠﻨﺸﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﺭﻤﻀﺎﻥ ‪ .‬ﺯﻴﺎﺩ‪1999 ،‬ﻤﺒﺎﺩﺉ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪ .‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‪ :‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﺌل ﻝﻠﻨﺸﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-6‬‬
‫‪ -7‬ﻭﺴﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻤﻼﻙ‪ ،2008 .‬ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ‪ :‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻬل ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -8‬ﻨﺎﻅﻡ‪ ،‬ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﻨﻭﺭﻱ‪ .1999 ،‬ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻐﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻴﻨﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪.‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‪ :‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﺌل ﻝﻠﻨﺸﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪www.ase.com.jo -9‬‬
‫‪ -10‬ﺍﻝﻴﻭﺴﻑ‪ ،‬ﻴﻭﺴﻑ ﺨﻠﻴﻔﺔ ‪ ،2009 .‬ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ‪ ،358‬ﺹ‬
‫‪. 28 – 14‬‬
‫‪12 – John . B . Taylor,2008: The financial crisis and the policy responses : an‬‬
‫‪empirical analysis and what went wrong . Stanford university .‬‬
‫‪13 – Pascal . Berrone ,2008 : Current global finacial crises : an incentive problem ,‬‬
‫‪University of navara‬‬
‫‪ – 14‬ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺴﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺤﻤﺩ‪ : 2009 ،‬ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ‪ .‬ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻓﻕ ‪ ,‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ‪. 19‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤــــﻼﺤــﻕ‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ) ‪ ( 1‬ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﻭﻥ )ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ(‬

‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻻﻏﻼﻕ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺘﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ‬
‫‪%5.59-‬‬ ‫‪2.70‬‬ ‫‪2.86‬‬ ‫‪2008-1-2‬‬
‫‪%14.07-‬‬ ‫‪2.32‬‬ ‫‪2.70‬‬ ‫‪2008-2-2‬‬
‫‪%1.29-‬‬ ‫‪2.29‬‬ ‫‪2.32‬‬ ‫‪2008-3-2‬‬
‫‪%0.873-‬‬ ‫‪2.27‬‬ ‫‪2.29‬‬ ‫‪2008-4-1‬‬
‫‪% 3.964‬‬ ‫‪2.36‬‬ ‫‪2.27‬‬ ‫‪2008-5-4‬‬
‫‪%19.067‬‬ ‫‪2.81‬‬ ‫‪2.36‬‬ ‫‪2008-6-1‬‬

‫‪%14.946-‬‬ ‫‪2.39‬‬ ‫‪2.81‬‬ ‫‪2008-7-1‬‬
‫‪%15.481‬‬ ‫‪2.76‬‬ ‫‪2.39‬‬ ‫‪2008-8-3‬‬
‫‪%9.420-‬‬ ‫‪2.50‬‬ ‫‪2.76‬‬ ‫‪2008-9-1‬‬
‫‪%28-‬‬ ‫‪1.80‬‬ ‫‪2.50‬‬ ‫‪2008-10-5‬‬
‫‪%37.22-‬‬ ‫‪1.13‬‬ ‫‪1.80‬‬ ‫‪2008-11-2‬‬
‫‪%18.58-‬‬ ‫‪0.92‬‬ ‫‪1.13‬‬ ‫‪2008-12-1‬‬
‫‪%11.95‬‬ ‫‪1.03‬‬ ‫‪0.92‬‬ ‫‪2009-1-4‬‬
‫‪%4.85-‬‬ ‫‪0.98‬‬ ‫‪1.03‬‬ ‫‪2009-2-1‬‬
‫‪%12.244‬‬ ‫‪1.10‬‬ ‫‪0.98‬‬ ‫‪2009-3-1‬‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ)‪ (2‬ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ )ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ(‬

‫‪%2.044‬‬ ‫‪29.95‬‬ ‫‪29.35‬‬ ‫‪2008-1-2‬‬
‫‪%4.888‬‬ ‫‪30.68‬‬ ‫‪29.25‬‬ ‫‪2008-2-2‬‬
‫‪%13.52-‬‬ ‫‪26.53‬‬ ‫‪30.68‬‬ ‫‪2008-3-2‬‬
‫‪%31.77-‬‬ ‫‪18.10‬‬ ‫‪26.53‬‬ ‫‪2008-4-1‬‬
‫‪%9.33‬‬ ‫‪19.79‬‬ ‫‪18.10‬‬ ‫‪2008-5-4‬‬
‫‪%9.499‬‬ ‫‪21.67‬‬ ‫‪19.79‬‬ ‫‪2008-6-1‬‬
‫‪%6.229‬‬ ‫‪23.02‬‬ ‫‪21.67‬‬ ‫‪2008-7-1‬‬
‫‪%5.169-‬‬ ‫‪21.83‬‬ ‫‪23.02‬‬ ‫‪2008-8-3‬‬
‫‪%9.986-‬‬ ‫‪19.65‬‬ ‫‪21.83‬‬ ‫‪2008-9-1‬‬
‫‪%13.48-‬‬ ‫‪17.00‬‬ ‫‪19.65‬‬ ‫‪2008-10-5‬‬
‫‪%18.82-‬‬ ‫‪13.80‬‬ ‫‪17.00‬‬ ‫‪2008-11-2‬‬
‫‪%9.855‬‬ ‫‪15.16‬‬ ‫‪13.80‬‬ ‫‪2008-12-1‬‬
‫‪%11.015-‬‬ ‫‪13.49‬‬ ‫‪15.16‬‬ ‫‪2009-1-4‬‬
‫‪%11.045-‬‬ ‫‪12.00‬‬ ‫‪13.49‬‬ ‫‪2009-2-1‬‬
‫‪%6.833-‬‬ ‫‪11.18‬‬ ‫‪12.00‬‬ ‫‪2009-3-1‬‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (3‬ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬

‫‪%9.328-‬‬ ‫‪2.43‬‬ ‫‪2.68‬‬ ‫‪2008-1-2‬‬
‫‪%11.522‬‬ ‫‪2.71‬‬ ‫‪2.43‬‬ ‫‪2008-2-2‬‬
‫‪%3.321‬‬ ‫‪2.80‬‬ ‫‪2.71‬‬ ‫‪2008-3-2‬‬
‫‪%48.076‬‬ ‫‪3.08‬‬ ‫‪2.80‬‬ ‫‪2008-4-1‬‬
‫‪%72.077‬‬ ‫‪5.30‬‬ ‫‪3.08‬‬ ‫‪2008-5-4‬‬
‫‪%32.075‬‬ ‫‪7.00‬‬ ‫‪5.30‬‬ ‫‪2008-6-1‬‬
‫‪%2.857-‬‬ ‫‪6.80‬‬ ‫‪7.00‬‬ ‫‪2008-7-1‬‬
‫‪%11.911-‬‬ ‫‪5.99‬‬ ‫‪6.80‬‬ ‫‪2008-8-3‬‬
‫‪%11.185-‬‬ ‫‪5.32‬‬ ‫‪5.99‬‬ ‫‪2008-9-1‬‬
‫‪%19.36-‬‬ ‫‪4.29‬‬ ‫‪5.32‬‬ ‫‪2008-10-5‬‬
‫‪%6.526-‬‬ ‫‪4.01‬‬ ‫‪4.29‬‬ ‫‪2008-11-2‬‬
‫‪%7.980‬‬ ‫‪3.69‬‬ ‫‪4.01‬‬ ‫‪2008-12-1‬‬
‫‪%11.11‬‬ ‫‪4.10‬‬ ‫‪3.69‬‬ ‫‪2009-1-4‬‬
‫‪%3.658-‬‬ ‫‪3.95‬‬ ‫‪4.10‬‬ ‫‪2009-2-1‬‬
‫‪%7.594‬‬ ‫‪4.25‬‬ ‫‪3.95‬‬ ‫‪2009-3-1‬‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (4‬ﺍﻤﻭﺍل ﺍﻨﻔﺴﺕ ) ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ(‬

‫‪%1-‬‬ ‫‪1.98‬‬ ‫‪2.00‬‬ ‫‪2008-1-2‬‬
‫‪%5.55‬‬ ‫‪2.09‬‬ ‫‪1.98‬‬ ‫‪2008-2-2‬‬
‫‪%0.478‬‬ ‫‪2.10‬‬ ‫‪2.09‬‬ ‫‪2008-3-2‬‬
‫‪%4.761‬‬ ‫‪2.20‬‬ ‫‪2.10‬‬ ‫‪2008-4-1‬‬
‫‪%1.36-‬‬ ‫‪2.17‬‬ ‫‪2.20‬‬ ‫‪2008-5-4‬‬
‫‪%26.26‬‬ ‫‪2.74‬‬ ‫‪2.17‬‬ ‫‪2008-6-1‬‬
‫‪%20.43‬‬ ‫‪3.30‬‬ ‫‪2.74‬‬ ‫‪2008-7-1‬‬
‫‪%11.81-‬‬ ‫‪2.91‬‬ ‫‪3.30‬‬ ‫‪2008-8-3‬‬
‫‪%10.99-‬‬ ‫‪2.59‬‬ ‫‪2.91‬‬ ‫‪2008-9-1‬‬
‫‪%23.55-‬‬ ‫‪1.98‬‬ ‫‪2.59‬‬ ‫‪2008-10-5‬‬
‫‪%21.21-‬‬ ‫‪1.56‬‬ ‫‪1.98‬‬ ‫‪2008-11-2‬‬
‫‪%0.641‬‬ ‫‪1.57‬‬ ‫‪1.56‬‬ ‫‪2008-12-1‬‬
‫‪%10.82-‬‬ ‫‪1.40‬‬ ‫‪1.57‬‬ ‫‪2009-1-4‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1.40‬‬ ‫‪1.40‬‬ ‫‪2009-2-1‬‬
‫‪%7.85‬‬ ‫‪1.29‬‬ ‫‪1.40‬‬ ‫‪2009-3-1‬‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (5‬ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ) ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ (‬

‫‪%5.444‬‬ ‫‪3.10‬‬ ‫‪2.94‬‬ ‫‪2008-1-2‬‬
‫‪%0.322-‬‬ ‫‪3.09‬‬ ‫‪3.10‬‬ ‫‪2008-2-2‬‬
‫‪%6.796-‬‬ ‫‪2.88‬‬ ‫‪3.09‬‬ ‫‪2008-3-2‬‬
‫‪%4.51388-‬‬ ‫‪2.75‬‬ ‫‪2.88‬‬ ‫‪2008-4-1‬‬
‫‪%2.181-‬‬ ‫‪2.69‬‬ ‫‪2.75‬‬ ‫‪2008-5-4‬‬
‫‪%1.1152-‬‬ ‫‪2.66‬‬ ‫‪2.69‬‬ ‫‪2008-6-1‬‬
‫‪%2.63-‬‬ ‫‪2.59‬‬ ‫‪2.66‬‬ ‫‪2008-7-1‬‬
‫‪%6.1776‬‬ ‫‪2.75‬‬ ‫‪2.59‬‬ ‫‪2008-8-3‬‬
‫‪%1.0909‬‬ ‫‪2.78‬‬ ‫‪2.75‬‬ ‫‪2008-9-1‬‬
‫‪%21.22-‬‬ ‫‪2.19‬‬ ‫‪2.78‬‬ ‫‪2008-10-5‬‬
‫‪%18.72-‬‬ ‫‪1.78‬‬ ‫‪2.19‬‬ ‫‪2008-11-2‬‬
‫‪%15.730-‬‬ ‫‪1.50‬‬ ‫‪1.78‬‬ ‫‪2008-12-1‬‬
‫‪%8.666-‬‬ ‫‪1.37‬‬ ‫‪1.50‬‬ ‫‪2009-1-4‬‬
‫‪%8.759-‬‬ ‫‪1.25‬‬ ‫‪1.37‬‬ ‫‪2009-2-1‬‬
‫‪%16‬‬ ‫‪1.45‬‬ ‫‪1.25‬‬ ‫‪2009-3-1‬‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (6‬ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬

‫‪%1.043-‬‬ ‫‪11.38‬‬ ‫‪11.50‬‬ ‫‪2008-1-2‬‬
‫‪%5.0966-‬‬ ‫‪10.80‬‬ ‫‪11.38‬‬ ‫‪2008-2-2‬‬
‫‪%7.47-‬‬ ‫‪10.00‬‬ ‫‪10.80‬‬ ‫‪2008-3-2‬‬
‫‪%6.5-‬‬ ‫‪9.35‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬ ‫‪2008-4-1‬‬
‫‪%3.850‬‬ ‫‪9.71‬‬ ‫‪9.35‬‬ ‫‪2008-5-4‬‬
‫‪%15.036-‬‬ ‫‪8.25‬‬ ‫‪9.71‬‬ ‫‪2008-6-1‬‬
‫‪%3.151-‬‬ ‫‪7.99‬‬ ‫‪8.25‬‬ ‫‪2008-7-1‬‬
‫‪%9.7622-‬‬ ‫‪7.21‬‬ ‫‪7.99‬‬ ‫‪2008-8-3‬‬
‫‪%5.409‬‬ ‫‪7.60‬‬ ‫‪7.21‬‬ ‫‪2008-9-1‬‬
‫‪%22.76-‬‬ ‫‪5.87‬‬ ‫‪7.60‬‬ ‫‪2008-10-5‬‬
‫‪%26.064-‬‬ ‫‪4.34‬‬ ‫‪5.87‬‬ ‫‪2008-11-2‬‬
‫‪%14.516-‬‬ ‫‪3.71‬‬ ‫‪4.34‬‬ ‫‪2008-12-1‬‬
‫‪%1.0781‬‬ ‫‪3.75‬‬ ‫‪3.71‬‬ ‫‪2009-1-4‬‬
‫‪%86.17-‬‬ ‫‪3.08‬‬ ‫‪3.75‬‬ ‫‪2009-2-1‬‬
‫‪%10.064-‬‬ ‫‪2.77‬‬ ‫‪3.08‬‬ ‫‪2009-3-1‬‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (7‬ﺍﻋﻤﺎﺭ ﻝﻠﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫‪%3.689-‬‬ ‫‪3.14‬‬ ‫‪3.26‬‬ ‫‪2008-1-2‬‬
‫‪%4.140‬‬ ‫‪3.27‬‬ ‫‪3.14‬‬ ‫‪2008-2-2‬‬
‫‪%13.1498‬‬ ‫‪3.70‬‬ ‫‪3.27‬‬ ‫‪2008-3-2‬‬
‫‪%27.027-‬‬ ‫‪2.70‬‬ ‫‪3.70‬‬ ‫‪2008-4-1‬‬
‫‪%4.074-‬‬ ‫‪2.59‬‬ ‫‪2.70‬‬ ‫‪2008-5-4‬‬
‫‪%11.196-‬‬ ‫‪2.30‬‬ ‫‪2.59‬‬ ‫‪2008-6-1‬‬
‫‪%13.043‬‬ ‫‪2.00‬‬ ‫‪2.30‬‬ ‫‪2008-7-1‬‬
‫‪%5‬‬ ‫‪2.10‬‬ ‫‪2.00‬‬ ‫‪2008-8-3‬‬
‫‪%11.904-‬‬ ‫‪1.85‬‬ ‫‪2.10‬‬ ‫‪2008-9-1‬‬
‫‪%31.35-‬‬ ‫‪1.27‬‬ ‫‪1.85‬‬ ‫‪2008-10-5‬‬
‫‪%11.023-‬‬ ‫‪1.13‬‬ ‫‪1.27‬‬ ‫‪2008-11-2‬‬
‫‪%5.309-‬‬ ‫‪1.07‬‬ ‫‪1.13‬‬ ‫‪2008-12-1‬‬
‫‪%7.476‬‬ ‫‪1.15‬‬ ‫‪1.07‬‬ ‫‪2009-1-4‬‬
‫‪%695.8-‬‬ ‫‪1.05‬‬ ‫‪1.15‬‬ ‫‪2009-2-1‬‬
‫‪%7.6190‬‬ ‫‪1.13‬‬ ‫‪1.05‬‬ ‫‪2009-3-1‬‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (8‬ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻔﻅﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬

‫‪%8.9655-‬‬ ‫‪1.32‬‬ ‫‪1.45‬‬ ‫‪2008-1-2‬‬
‫‪%6.818-‬‬ ‫‪1.23‬‬ ‫‪1.32‬‬ ‫‪2008-2-2‬‬
‫‪%10.659-‬‬ ‫‪1.10‬‬ ‫‪1.23‬‬ ‫‪2008-3-2‬‬
‫‪%4.545-‬‬ ‫‪1.05‬‬ ‫‪1.10‬‬ ‫‪2008-4-1‬‬
‫‪%10.476‬‬ ‫‪1.16‬‬ ‫‪1.05‬‬ ‫‪2008-5-4‬‬
‫‪%18.103‬‬ ‫‪1.37‬‬ ‫‪1.16‬‬ ‫‪2008-6-1‬‬
‫‪%13.138-‬‬ ‫‪1.19‬‬ ‫‪1.37‬‬ ‫‪2008-7-1‬‬
‫‪%15.126‬‬ ‫‪1.37‬‬ ‫‪1.19‬‬ ‫‪2008-8-3‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1.37‬‬ ‫‪1.37‬‬ ‫‪2008-9-1‬‬
‫‪%16.788-‬‬ ‫‪1.14‬‬ ‫‪1.37‬‬ ‫‪2008-10-5‬‬
‫‪%4.385‬‬ ‫‪1.19‬‬ ‫‪1.14‬‬ ‫‪2008-11-2‬‬
‫‪%3.361‬‬ ‫‪1.23‬‬ ‫‪1.19‬‬ ‫‪2008-12-1‬‬
‫‪%15.44-‬‬ ‫‪1.04‬‬ ‫‪1.23‬‬ ‫‪2009-1-4‬‬
‫‪%10.57-‬‬ ‫‪0.93‬‬ ‫‪1.04‬‬ ‫‪2009-2-1‬‬
‫‪10.752‬‬ ‫‪1.03‬‬ ‫‪0.93‬‬ ‫‪2009-3-1‬‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (9‬ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺎﻤﺨﺔ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬

‫‪0.363-‬‬ ‫‪2.74‬‬ ‫‪2.75‬‬ ‫‪2008-1-2‬‬
‫‪%1.459‬‬ ‫‪2.78‬‬ ‫‪2.74‬‬ ‫‪2008-2-2‬‬
‫‪%8.99-‬‬ ‫‪2.53‬‬ ‫‪2.78‬‬ ‫‪2008-3-2‬‬
‫‪%3.55‬‬ ‫‪2.62‬‬ ‫‪2.53‬‬ ‫‪2008-4-1‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2.62‬‬ ‫‪2.62‬‬ ‫‪2008-5-4‬‬
‫‪%6.870‬‬ ‫‪2.80‬‬ ‫‪2.62‬‬ ‫‪2008-6-1‬‬
‫‪%1.758-‬‬ ‫‪2.75‬‬ ‫‪2.80‬‬ ‫‪2008-7-1‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2.75‬‬ ‫‪2.75‬‬ ‫‪2008-8-3‬‬
‫‪%3.636-‬‬ ‫‪2.65‬‬ ‫‪2.75‬‬ ‫‪2008-9-1‬‬
‫‪%8.301-‬‬ ‫‪2.43‬‬ ‫‪2.65‬‬ ‫‪2008-10-5‬‬
‫‪%19.341‬‬ ‫‪2.90‬‬ ‫‪2.43‬‬ ‫‪2008-11-2‬‬
‫‪%10.26-‬‬ ‫‪2.63‬‬ ‫‪2.90‬‬ ‫‪2008-12-1‬‬
‫‪%13.2079‬‬ ‫‪2.98‬‬ ‫‪2.63‬‬ ‫‪2009-1-4‬‬
‫‪%8.389-‬‬ ‫‪2.73‬‬ ‫‪2.98‬‬ ‫‪2009-2-1‬‬
‫‪%2.93-‬‬ ‫‪65.2‬‬ ‫‪2.73‬‬ ‫‪2009-3-1‬‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (10‬ﻤﻴﺜﺎﻕ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬

‫‪%19.06-‬‬ ‫‪1.74‬‬ ‫‪2.15‬‬ ‫‪2008-1-2‬‬
‫‪%16.091-‬‬ ‫‪1.46‬‬ ‫‪1.74‬‬ ‫‪2008-2-2‬‬
‫‪%24.7126-‬‬ ‫‪1.31‬‬ ‫‪1.46‬‬ ‫‪2008-3-2‬‬
‫‪%6.164-‬‬ ‫‪1.37‬‬ ‫‪1.31‬‬ ‫‪2008-4-1‬‬
‫‪%2.189‬‬ ‫‪1.40‬‬ ‫‪1.37‬‬ ‫‪2008-5-4‬‬
‫‪%41.428‬‬ ‫‪1.98‬‬ ‫‪1.40‬‬ ‫‪2008-6-1‬‬
‫‪%18.18-‬‬ ‫‪1.62‬‬ ‫‪1.98‬‬ ‫‪2008-7-1‬‬
‫‪%16.66-‬‬ ‫‪1.35‬‬ ‫‪1.62‬‬ ‫‪2008-8-3‬‬
‫‪%2.962‬‬ ‫‪1.39‬‬ ‫‪1.35‬‬ ‫‪2008-9-1‬‬
‫‪%6.474-‬‬ ‫‪1.30‬‬ ‫‪1.39‬‬ ‫‪2008-10-5‬‬
‫‪%24.615-‬‬ ‫‪0.98‬‬ ‫‪1.30‬‬ ‫‪2008-11-2‬‬
‫‪%24.489‬‬ ‫‪1.22‬‬ ‫‪0.98‬‬ ‫‪2008-12-1‬‬
‫‪%15.57-‬‬ ‫‪1.03‬‬ ‫‪1.22‬‬ ‫‪2009-1-4‬‬
‫‪%8.73-‬‬ ‫‪0.94‬‬ ‫‪1.03‬‬ ‫‪2009-2-1‬‬
‫‪%29.787‬‬ ‫‪1.22‬‬ ‫‪0.94‬‬ ‫‪2009-3-1‬‬
‫ﺠﻤﺎل ﺤﻭﺍﺵ‪ ،‬ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻬﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻱ‪ ،2004 ،‬ﺹ ﺹ‪.4-1 :‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬
‫ﺠﻤﺎل ﺤﻭﺍﺵ‪ ،‬ﻤﺭﺠﻊ ﺴﺒﻕ ﺫﻜﺭﻩ‪ ،‬ﺹ ﺹ‪.4-1 :‬‬ ‫‪ii‬‬
‫∗ﻴﻘﺼﺩ ﺒﻤﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻜﺱ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻋﻤﻼﺀ ﺫﻭ ﺠﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻗﺩﺭﺘﻬﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﺩﺍﺩ‪.‬‬
‫∗∗ﻴﻘﺼﺩ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺭﺽ )ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ( ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺘﺭﺽ )ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻴل( ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺨﻁﺭ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﻭ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺭﺽ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻘﺒﻭﻝﺔ ﻷﻨﻬﺎ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺘﺴﺒﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺩﺍﺩﻩ‬
‫ﻷﻤﻭﺍﻝﻪ‪.‬‬
‫‪iii‬‬
‫‪Frederic S Mishkin, Understanding Financial crisis, a developing country perspective, NBER, Working paper‬‬
‫‪series, wp 5600, may 1996, p: 17.‬‬
‫‪iv‬‬
‫‪Goetz Von Peter, Asset prices and banking distress, a macro economic approach, bank for international‬‬
‫‪settlements, October 2004, pp: 1-2.‬‬
‫‪v‬‬
‫‪Jahangir Azia and all, Currency crisis: in search of common elements, IMF working paper, wp/00/67, USA, 2002,‬‬
‫‪p: 05.‬‬
‫ﺤﺎﺯﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﺒﻼﻭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﻗﺔ ﻋﻤل ﻝﻼﺠﺘﻤﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﻝﻭﺯﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪vi‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﻲ ﺍﻻﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻜﻭﻴﺕ‪ 14 ،‬ﻴﻨﺎﻴﺭ ‪ ،2009‬ﺹ‪.05 :‬‬
‫‪ vii‬ﺤﺎﺯﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﺒﻼﻭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻝﺔ ﻝﻠﻔﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ‪ ،335‬ﺍﻜﺘﻭﺒﺭ ‪ ،2008‬ﺹ‬
‫ﺹ‪.33-32 :‬‬
‫‪viii‬ﺤﺎﺯﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﺒﻼﻭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﻗﺔ ﻋﻤل ﻝﻼﺠﺘﻤﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﻝﻭﺯﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺭﺠﻊ ﺴﺒﻕ ﺫﻜﺭﻩ‪ ،‬ﺹ‪.14 :‬‬
‫‪ ix‬ﺠﺎﺴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ‪ ...‬ﻭﻗﻔﺔ ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻘﺎل ﺒﺤﺜﻲ ﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻭﻗﻊ ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ‪ ،2008 ،‬ﺹ‬
‫ﺹ‪ ،06-05 :‬ﺒﺎﻝﺘﺼﺭﻑ‪.‬‬
‫‪ x‬ﺠﺎﺴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ‪ ...‬ﻭﺭﺏ ﻀﺎﺭﺓ ﻨﺎﻓﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻘﺎل ﺒﺤﺙ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻻﻝﻜﺘﺭﻭﻨﻲ ﻝﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﺹ‬
‫ﺹ‪.03-02 :‬‬
‫ﻋﺩﻨﺎﻥ ﺍﺤﻤﺩ ﻴﻭﺴﻑ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ‪،335‬‬ ‫‪xi‬‬
‫ﺍﻜﺘﻭﺒﺭ ‪ ،2008‬ﺹ‪.12 :‬‬
‫‪ xii‬ﺘﺎﻤﺭ ﻋﺒﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺯﻴﺯ‪ ،‬ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ‪ ...‬ﻋﺯﻑ ﻤﻨﻔﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﺘﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻬﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﺤﻴﺎﺀ‪...‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﻁﻤﺌﻨﺎﻥ ﻴﺤﻑ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ‪ ،‬ﺠﺭﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺠﺭﻴﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ‪ ،2008-11-16 ،462‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻻﻝﻜﺘﺭﻭﻨﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪www.aljareeda.com/aljarida/ArticlePrint.aspx?id=85886‬‬
‫‪ xiii‬ﻤﺎﺯﻥ ﺤﻤﻭﺩ‪ 15 ،‬ﺸﻬﺭﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ » ‪ :« Subprimes‬ﻤﺸﺎﻜل – ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ –‬
‫ﻓﺭﺹ ﺍﻝﺤﻠﻭل ﻭ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻨﺠﺎﺤﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ‪ ،335‬ﺍﻜﺘﻭﺒﺭ ‪ ،2008‬ﺹ‪.62 :‬‬
‫‪xiv‬‬
‫‪Jean-Pierre PATAT, Directeur général des Études et des Relations internationales, La stabilité financière,‬‬
‫‪nouvelle urgence pour les banques centrales, BULLETIN DE LA BANQUE DE France, N° 84, DÉCEMBRE 2000,‬‬
‫‪p : 07.‬‬
‫ﻝﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﺭﺍﺯﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﺴﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺭﺍﺠﻊ‪:‬‬ ‫‪xv‬‬
‫‪Chellal Zohir, Réflexion sur la réglementation prudentielle Algérienne, Mémoire de fin d’étude, DESS Banque,‬‬
‫‪école Superieure de commerce, 2000/2001.‬‬
‫ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ‬

‫*‬
‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﺭﺍﻤﺯ ﺴﺎﻤﻲ ﺍﻝﻁﻨﺒﻭﺭ‬
‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻨﺫ ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﻝﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺤﺼل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺜﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺘﺼﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺠﻌﻠﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺠﻬﺎﺯ ﻜﻤﺒﻴﻭﺘﺭ ﻭﺨﻁ ﺇﻨﺘﺭﻨﻴﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺜﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻹﻝﻜﺘﺭﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺤﻤﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﻝﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺴﻴﻁﺭﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺠﻌﻠﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﺘﺭﺩﺩﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻜﺎﻤل ﺃﺭﺠﺎﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻤﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﻭﺤﺩﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﻴﺒﺔ ﺃﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺒﺸﺭ ﺍﻝﻐﻨﻲ ﻤﻨﻬﻡ ﻭﺍﻝﻔﻘﻴﺭ ﺤﺘﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤل ﻓﻲ ﺯﻭﺍﻴﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﻨﻊ ﻝﻡ ﻴﺴﻠﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻜﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻤﺜﻠﻪ ﻤﺜل ﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺨﺼﻭﺼﻴﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻁﺎﻉ ﺤﺘﻰ ﺍﻵﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺼﻤﺩ‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﺭﻴﺎﺡ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻝﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺼﻤﻭﺩ ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ ﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﺫﻝﻙ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻜﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﺅﺍل ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻁﺭﺡ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‬
‫ﺒﻘﻭﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺸﻐل ﺒﺎل ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﻫﻭ‪ :‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺘﻰ ﺴﻴﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺼﻤﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺘﻌﺎﻅﻡ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻭﺘﻀﺨﻤﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺸﻴﺌﹰﺎ ﻓﺸﻴﺌ ﹰﺎ ﻜﻜﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺜﻠﺞ؟‬
‫ﻻ ﺸﻙ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻝﻙ ﻤﻌﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﻋﺩﺓ ﺘﻭﻓﺭﺕ ﻝﻠﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺠﻌﻠﺘﻬﺎ ﺒﻌﻴﺩﺓ ﻨﻭﻋ ﹰﺎ ﻤﺎ ﻋﻥ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﺒﺭﺯﻫﺎ‪:‬‬
‫ﺼﻐﺭ ﻤﺴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 10452‬ﻜﻠﻡ ﻤﺭﺒﻊ ﻭﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩﻴﺔ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫‬
‫ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﺒﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﻫﺎﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻨﺸﻐﺎﻝﻬﺎ ﺒﺄﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻨﻅﺭﹰﺍ ﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻤﻬﺎ ﺒﺈﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ‬ ‫‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل _ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ _ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻻﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺸﻬﺩﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻐﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫‬
‫ﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺩﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺒﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻝﻡ ﻴﺸﻬﺩ ﺃﻱ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺇﻓﻼﺱ‪ ،‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﻓﻀ ﹰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺭﻜﻭﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻭﺘﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺃﺤﻴﺎﻨﹰﺎ‪ ،‬ﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍ ﺒﺎﻹﺠﻤﺎل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻌﺩ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫‬
‫ﺤﻜﻤﺔ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﻗﺩﺭﺘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻤﺴﺎﻙ ﺒﺎﻝﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ‪.‬‬ ‫‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻜﻼﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺼﺎﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻝﻴﺱ ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻘﻁ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﺇﻥ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﺸﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺩﺕ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺃﺩﻓﺎﻨﺘﺞ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺸﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻥ ﺤﺼﺎﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪ :‬ﺭﻏﻡ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ‬ ‫ﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺼﻤﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺠﺎﺀ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻴﺩﺍﻭﻱ ﺠﺭﺍﺤﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﺭﻗﺔ ﺒﻠﻬﻴﺏ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻋﺎﺩﻱ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻨﺠﺩ ﺒﻠﺩﹰﺍ ﻗﺩ ﺤﺼﺩ ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺤﹰﺎ ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻗﻁﺎﻋﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻜﺸﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﻋﺎﻤل ﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻜﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﺎﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﺎﻥ ﻗﻭﺓ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺘﻪ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺇﻥ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻴﺘﺒﻊ ﻋﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻋﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﻼ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬
‫ﻭﺇﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﹰﺎ ﻝﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ )‪ (%34-%33‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺩ ﺩﻝﻴ ﹰ‬
‫ﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﺨﺫ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻭﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺠﻴﺩ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﺎﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻀﺩ ﺃﻱ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺠﺎﺀ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺭﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﻴ‪‬ﻨﺕ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺃﻀﻤﻥ ﺒﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺃﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺒﺘﺼﻨﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻴﺤﻜﻰ ﻋﻥ ﻤﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ ﺒﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﻴﻴﺱ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﻋﺭﻴﻕ ﻭﺍﹸﺨﺘﹸﺒﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺃﺜﻤﺭﺕ ﺼﻘل ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻭﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﻤﻨﺎﻋﺘﻬﺎ ﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‪ (1).‬ﻭﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺘﻘﺎل ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﺎﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺘﺤﻘﻘﺕ ﻝﻠﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﺸﻴﺌﹰﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﻤﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻠﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺸﺭﻭﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺩﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻗﺩ ﺃﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻓﺭﺼﹰﺎ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻝﻠﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻭﺍﻝﺭﺒﺢ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺼﻠﺔ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺤﺩ ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻰ ﻝﻠﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‪ ،‬ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻴﻀﻊ ﻗﻴﻭﺩﹰﺍ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺠﻡ ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻜﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺄﻤﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻹﻓﻼﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻁﺎﻭﻝﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺅﻜﺩ ﻤﺩﻴﺭﻭ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻴﻤﺘﺎﺯ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﺍﻷﻗل ﺘﻀﺭﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﺴﻴﻤﺎ ﻝﺠﻬﺔ ﺴﻼﻤﺔ ﻗﻁﺎﻋﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺤﺎﻓﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺠﻴﺩﺓ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ‬
‫‪ 2008‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻨﻤﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻘﺭﺏ ‪ %12‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﻓﻀل ﺨﻼل ‪ 3‬ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺘﻀﺎﻑ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻨﺴﺏ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺨﻁﺕ ‪ %40‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻓﺎﻗﺕ ‪ %70‬ﻝﺩﻯ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺫﻜﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺴﻠﻑ‬
‫ﺴﻭﻯ ﺤﻭﺍﻝﻲ ‪ %30‬ﻤﻥ ﻭﺩﺍﺌﻌﻬﺎ‪(2).‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻝﻤﺼﺭﻑ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﻪ ﺒﺎﻝﻠﻭﺍﺌﺢ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺍﺒﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻴﻭﺩ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻭﻀﻌﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻠﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺍﺸﺘﺭﻁﺕ ﻨﺴﺒﹰﺎ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻹﻝﺯﺍﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﺎﻥ ﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‪ ،‬ﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﺎﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻀ ﹰ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻜﺒﺕ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻤﺭ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ .‬ﺠﻤﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ل ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻅﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬
‫ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻋﻥ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻝﺠﺩﻴﺭ ﺒﺎﻻﻨﺘﺒﺎﻩ ﺃﻴﻀ ﹰﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺠ ّ‬
‫ﻤﺭ ﹼﻜﺯﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻨﻅﺭﹰﺍ ﻝﻘﺩﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻴﻌﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻝﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﻓﺭﺹ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺯﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻓﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺤﺠﻡ ﻭﻤﺘﻭﺍﻀﻌﺔ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺨﻔﻑ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﻜﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﺩﺍﺌﻤﹰﺎ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﺃﻗل ﺨﻁﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺘﺒﻘﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﺤﺭﻙ ﻭﺘﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻼﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻤﺎ ﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﻨﻀﺒﺎﻁ ﻭﺍﻻﻝﺘﺯﺍﻡ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﺯﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻝﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺇﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ﺒﻭﻀﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺸﺘﺭﻁﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺕ ﺴﺎﻋﺩﺕ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺯﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺭﺝ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺭﺸﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻁﻲ ﺒﺎﻝﺸﺄﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻓﺎﺩﺕ ﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ ﺤﻘﻕ ﻨﻤﻭﹰﺍ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ %8‬ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻡ ‪.2008‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺭﺒﻌﺔ ﻤﺤﺎﻭﺭ ﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻡ ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺹ ﻤﺤﺭﻜ ﹰﺎ ﻝﻠﻨﻤﻭ‪ .‬ﺍﻝﺘﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻬﻴﻜﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ‪.‬ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻻ‪ :‬ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺨﻼل ‪ 15‬ﻋﺎﻤ ﹰﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬‫ﺃﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻷﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻭﺍﺠﻬﺕ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﻴﺒﺔ ﻭﻗﺩ ﻤﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻴﻭﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺩﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺎﺭﻀﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺘﺭﺩﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻝﺜ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﻝﻡ ﻴﺴﻤﺢ ﻤﺼﺭﻑ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺒﺈﻓﻼﺱ ﺃﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻤل ﺫﻝﻙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﻀﻌﺎﻑ ﻭﻨﺼﻑ ﻀﻌﻑ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺭﺍﺒﻌ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﻗﺎﻤﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﺒﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺩﻴﻭﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺼل ﻭﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺩﻭﻝﺔ‪(3).‬‬
‫ﺒﺎﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻹﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺘﺸﻬﺩﻩ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺘﻤﺭ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺄﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺤﺭﺠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺤﺭ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻤﺎﺭﺱ ﻜﺎﻤل‬
‫ﺼﻼﺤﻴﺎﺘﻪ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻀﺒﻁ ﻤﻌﻪ ﺍﻹﻴﻘﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻝﻌﻤﻭﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺨﺭﺠﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺘﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﻌﺎﻓﺎﺓ ﺴﻠﻴﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﻤﺎ ﻓﺭﻀﻪ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻝﻡ ﻴﻤﻨﻌﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻝﻜﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﻓﺭﺽ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺸﺭﻭﺤﺎﺕ ﺤﻭل ﺠﺩﻭﺍﻫﺎ ﻭﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺘﻘ ‪‬ﺩﻡ‬
‫ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻴﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺩﺭﺍﻙ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻝﻠﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻜﺘﻠﺔ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﻓﺭﺽ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺃﻻ‬
‫ﻴﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ‪ 50‬ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻨﺼﻑ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻝﻡ‬
‫ﺘﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‪(4).‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﻼﺼﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺘﺠﺭﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﺒﻊ ﻨﻔﺱ ﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻠﻴﺒﺭﺍﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻐﺭﺏ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻹﺒﻘﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﻭﺍﻝﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﻓﻕ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﻠﻭﺍﺌﺢ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﻌﻨﻰ‬
‫ﺇﺒﺭﺍﺯ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺤﻭﻜﻤﺔ* ﺍﻝﻔﻌﺎﻝﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻫﻭ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺭﺍﺌﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﻴﺨﺘﺼﺭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﻤﻔﺭﺩﻩ‪ ،‬ﺇﻨﻤﺎ ﻴﻘﻑ‬
‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻩ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺴﻠﻁﺘﻪ ﻭﺼﻼﺤﻴﺎﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻘﺩ ﻭﻀ‪‬ﺢ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺤﺎﻜﻡ ﻤﺼﺭﻑ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻜﺘﻭﺭ ﺭﻴﺎﺽ ﺴﻼﻤﺔ ﺒﻘﻭﻝﻪ‪" :‬‬
‫ﻓﺎﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻻ ﻴﻤﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺼﻼﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل‬
‫ﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬

‫ﻭﺠﺩﺕ ﺨﻁﻁ ﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻫﻴﻜﻠﺔ ﻝﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻀﺎﻤﻨﹰﺎ ﺃ ‪‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺍﺌﻴﻪ ﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻜﻴﻑ ﺘﺘﻭﺯﻉ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل؟ ﻫﺫﻩ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻝﻬﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﺄﻤﺭﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻭل ﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﺍﺌﺒﻲ ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺼﻼﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻭﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻝﻨﻭﺍﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻫﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺼﻌﻴﺩ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻜﻜل‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻓﺭﺹ ﻋﻤل ﻭﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻝﻠﺜﺭﻭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﺃﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻻ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻝﻪ ﻓﻴﻪ‪ .‬ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺒﻪ ﻫﻭ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻝﻴﻭﻡ ﺇﺫﹰﺍ ﺍﻝﻠﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ‪ 2009‬ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﺍﻝﻠﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﻗﻭﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﺭﻯ ﺘﺤﺎﻭﻴل ﻨﺤﻭﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺃﻴﻠﻭل ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻴﻭﻡ ﺍﺸﺘﺭﻯ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ 6‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻭﻨﺤﻥ ﻨﻘﺎﺭﺏ ﺒﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺍﺘﻨﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺌﻠﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺒﹰﺎ ‪ 21‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻭﻫﻭ ﺭﻗﻡ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﺘﺭﺠﻡ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﻁﻥ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻝﻴﺭﺘﻪ ﺘﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺘﺸﺘﺭﻱ ﻭﺘﺅﻤﻥ ﻝﻪ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺸﺭﺍﺌﻴﺔ"‪(5) .‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺤﺎﻓﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺜﺒﺎﺘﻪ ﻭﺇﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺘﻪ ﻭﻭﺩﺍﺌﻌﻪ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬
‫ﻼ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻝﹼﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻐﻨﺎﺀ‬
‫ﺠﺯﺀﹰﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ ﺘﻀﺭﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻤﺜ ﹰ‬
‫ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﻋﻥ ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﻜﺎﻨﻭﺍ ﻤﺼﺩﺭﹰﺍ ﻝﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻴ‪‬ﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻭﺯﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻜﹼﺩ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺘﻜﺒﺩﻫﺎ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺜﺭﻭﺍﺘﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻘﻠﺹ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺩﻓﻌﺕ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻝﻼﺴﺘﻐﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻷﻴﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺠﻤﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻐﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪(6).‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻴﻀﺎﻫﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻭ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺤﺭ ﻭﻤﻨﻔﺘﺢ ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﻅﻬﺭ ﺜﺒﺎﺘ ﹰﺎ ﻭﻤﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺠﻪ‬
‫ﺃﺼﻌﺏ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺸﻬﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﺼﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻘﻲ ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻜﺎﻨﺘﻪ ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﻼ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﺍﻉ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺼﺭﺍﻉ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻁﺎﺌﻔﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﻴﺸﻪ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺠﻌل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﺽ ﻋﻨﺼﺭﹰﺍ ﻓﺎﻋ ﹰ‬
‫ﻭﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻝﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﺽ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺘﻤﹼﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻴﻘﻭﻱ ﻤﻥ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﻁﺎﺌﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻜﺔ‪ ،‬ﻝﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﺒﻘﻴﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺸﺩﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺎﻝﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻻﻏﺘﺭﺍﺏ )ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻘ ‪‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻭﻥ ﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺒﻀﻌﻔﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﺩﺍﺨل ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ( ﻴﺤﺭﺹ ﻜل ﻓﺭﺩ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻠﻙ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﻜل ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺭ ﺃﺒﻘﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺎﺭﺘﺩﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﹰﺎ ﺒﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﻨﺸﺭ ﻴﻭﻡ ‪ 23‬ﻴﻭﻝﻴﻭ ‪ 2009‬ﺘﻨﺎﻭل ﺃﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻭﺨﺼﻭﺼ ﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻌﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪" :‬ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺭ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻷﻋﻭﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﺨﻤﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻴﺔ ﺴﺠﻠﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺭﺨﺹ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ‪ 17.6‬ﻭ‪ 12.6‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺍﻝﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺭﺃﻯ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻭﻻ ﻴﺯﺍل ﺸﺒﻪ ﻤﺘﻭﺍﺼل ﻓﻬﻭ ﻨﺎﺒﻊ ﻤﻥ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﻴﻤﻴﻥ ﺃﻭﻷ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻀﻭﻱ ﻝﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻐﺘﺭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩﻴﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺇﻤﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺩﺍﺌﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺒﻐﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺯﻴﺎﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺜﺎﻨﻴﹰﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺨﺼﻭﺼﹰﺎ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺏ ﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﻴﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻭﻥ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻁﺭﺩﹰﺍ ﻭﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩﻴﹰﺎ ﺇﺫ ﺒﻠﻎ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺨﻼل‬

‫ﻭﺃﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺸﻬﺩﺕ ﻨﻤﻭﹰﺍ ﻤ ﹼ‬
‫ﺜﻼﺙ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻤﻌﺩل ‪ 25‬ﺇﻝﻰ ‪ 30‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺌﺔ ﺴﻨﻭﻴﹰﺎ ﻤﻊ ﺒﻠﻭﻍ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ‪ 50‬ﺇﻝﻰ ‪60‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺌﺔ ﻭﺨﺼﻭﺼﹰﺎ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺎﻴﻭ ‪ ،2008‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﺄﻯ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺘﺩﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺄﺜﺭﺕ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺇﺤﺼﺎﺀﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺠﻠﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺸﻬﺭ ﺍﻝﺨﻤﺴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻰ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻨﺔ ‪ 2009‬ﺃﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺸﻬﺩ ﺜﺒﺎﺘﹰﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﺴ ‪‬‬
‫ﻻ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ 4,3‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺍﺘﺒﻌﺕ ﻤﻨﺤﻰ ﺘﻨﺎﺯﻝﻴ ﹰﺎ ﺇﻨﻤﺎ ﺒﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓ ﺃﻗل‬
‫ﺭﺨﺹ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻨﻤﻭﹰﺍ ﻤﻘﺒﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﺒﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺸﻬﺩﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺠﻠﺔ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻌﹰﺎ ﻤﺘﻭﺍﻀﻌﹰﺎ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ‪ 10‬ﺇﻝﻰ ‪ 15‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺌﺔ ﻤﻨﺫ ﻨﺸﻭﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪(7) ".‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﻴﺴﻴﺭ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻁﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺴﺠ‪‬ل ﺘﻘﺩﻤﹰﺎ ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺝ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺃﻭﺩﺕ ﺒﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ‬
‫ﻓﺎﺩﺤﺔ ﻝﻠﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻁﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻐﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺨﺼﻭﺹ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻝﺤﺭﺠﺔ ﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬
‫ﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻁﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺤ ﹰﺎ ﺘﺼل ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺌﺔ ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ‬
‫‪ ،2009‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﻴﺼل ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﺭﻜﺎﺏ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻁﺎﺭ ﺭﻓﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﺭﻴﺭﻱ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﺇﻝﻰ ‪ 5‬ﻤﻼﻴﻴﻥ ﺭﺍﻜﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﻋﻠﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺩل ﺇﻴﺴﺕ ﻭﺒﺤﺴﺏ ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻋﻥ "ﻋﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻝﻨﻘل ﺍﻝﺠﻭﻱ" ﺼﻨﻔﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ‪ 25‬ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺨﻁﻭﻁ‬
‫ﺠﻭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ‪(8).2008‬‬
‫ﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻐﺘﺭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﺘﺩﻕ ﻨﺎﻗﻭﺱ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺭ‬

‫ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻹﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺒﻘﻲ ﺒﻌﻴﺩﹰﺍ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﻤﻼﻤﺢ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺘﻬﺩﺩ ﺒﺈﺩﺨﺎل ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭﺍﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺒﺎﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﻴﺽ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺘﺠﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻤﺎ ﺴﺘﺠﺭﻩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﺘﺴﺭﻴﺢ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﺎل ﻭﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻋﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻐﺘﺭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺘﺄﺜﺭﻫﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﺒﻲ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻨﻴﺎ ﺍﻻﻏﺘﺭﺍﺏ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻌ ‪‬ﺩﻯ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺨﻭﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻠﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺘﺨﺼﺼﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﻴﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺤ ﹼﺫﺭ ﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻓﺅﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻴﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺨﻔﺽ ﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻭﺩﺓ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻭ ﹼﻗﻊ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻗﺩ‬
‫ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻲ ﻨﺤﻭ ‪ 6‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻱ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ %20‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺃﻝﻤﺢ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺼﺩﺩ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻭﺩﺓ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺃﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺒﻼﺩﻫﻡ ﺒﻔﻌل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ,‬ﻓﻲ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺘﻘﻠﺼﺕ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻓﺭﺹ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻝﹼﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺞ‪(9).‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻐﺘﺭﺒﻴﻥ ﻜﻭﺴﻴﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺩﻋﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺴﺎﻨﺩﺘﻪ ﺒﺴﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻐﺘﺭﺒﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2008‬ﻤﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ ‪%20‬‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻘﺎﺭﺏ ‪ 30‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻏﺎﻝﺒ ﹰﺎ ﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻐﺘﺭﺒﻴﻥ ﺘﻨﻘﺫ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻀﻐﻁ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﻜﻴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻨﺎﺩﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺘﺠﺩ ﻋﺎﺌﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻝﺩﻴﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻤﻐﺘﺭﺏ ﻴﻌﻤل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺩﻋﻡ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻐﺘﺭﺒﻴﻥ ﺴﺎﻫﻡ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺃﻝ ‪‬ﻤﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﺒﻠﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻤﺘﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﺤﺭﺏ ﺍﻷﻫﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺃﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻼل ﺍﻹﺴﺭﺍﺌﻴﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻋﺘﺩﺍﺀﺍﺘﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻜﺭﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺨ ‪‬ﻭﻑ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻭﺩﺓ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻐﺘﺭﺒﻴﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺘﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺘﻡ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﻪ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺃﻜﺩﺕ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ ،2009‬ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﺭﻴﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺴﻌﺔ ﻝﻠﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺇﺜﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻁﺭﺡ ﺃﻤﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﻔﻌل ﻓﺈﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﻐﺘﺭﺒﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻫﻭ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺒﺎﻝﻎ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻌ ‪‬ﺩ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﺴﺕ ﺩﻭل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺘﻌﺜﺭ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻐﺘﺭﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺴﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺴﻠﺒ ﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺴﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻀ ﹰ‬
‫ﺴﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻁﺎﻝﺔ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﺠﺯﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ ﻓﻜﻴﻑ ﺒﺎﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻐﺘﺭﺒﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﺨﺴﺭﻭﺍ ﻭﻅﺎﺌﻔﻬﻡ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺠﺯﺀﹰﺍ ﻫﺎﻤﹰﺎ‬
‫ﻤﻨﻬﻡ ﻗﺩ ﻭﺠﺩ ﺍﻝﺒﺩﺍﺌل ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﺨﻠﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺸﺒﻪ ﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﻭﻅﻴﻔﻲ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻭﻜﺎﻝﺔ »ﺴﺘﺎﻨﺩﺭﺩ ﺁﻨﺩ ﺒﻭﺭﺯ«‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﺃﻭﺭﺩﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻤﻨﻔﺼﻠﻴﻥ ﻗﺭﺍﺀﺘﻴﻬﻤﺎ ﻭﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺘﻬﻤﺎ ﻝﻠﺤﺭﻜﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻁﺎﻝﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭل ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺱ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺭﺕ‬
‫»ﺴﺘﺎﻨﺩﺭﺩ ﺃﻨﺩ ﺒﻭﺭﺯ« ﻝﻠﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﹰﺎ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻀﺭ ﺒﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺠﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻜﺄﻜﺒﺭ ﺍﻨﺘﻜﺎﺴﺔ ﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺇﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﺸﺎﺭﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﺘﺸﻜل ﻨﺤﻭ ‪ 27‬ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺠﺎﺭﻱ‪» ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺼﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒـ‪ 19‬ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭ‪ 17‬ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺌﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﻐﺭﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭ‪ 13‬ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺌﺔ ﻝﻤﺼﺭ ﻭ‪ 8‬ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺌﺔ ﻝﺘﻭﻨﺱ‪(10).‬‬
‫ﻝﻘﺩ ﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺒﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﺒﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺱ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﺎﻝﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﺎﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺘﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺸﺄﻥ ﺒﺎﻝﻎ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺤﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻘ ‪‬ﺩﺭ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﺨﺴﺭﻭﺍ ﻭﻅﺎﺌﻔﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﻤﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ ‪%3‬‬
‫ﻓﻘﻁ‪ ،‬ﻜﺭﻗﻡ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺃﺼل ‪ 300‬ﺃﻝﻑ ﺸﺨﺹ ﻴﺸﻜﻠﻭﻥ ﺭﺒﻊ ﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻌﻤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺒ ﹼﻨﺕ ﺍﻝﺠﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻝﺠﺔ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻝﺘﻔﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﻤﻥ ‪ %9-8‬ﻓﻲ‬
‫‪ ،2008‬ﺇﻝﻰ ‪ %3‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪(11) 2009‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﻷﻤﻥ ﻭﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺼﻌﺏ ﺒﻤﻜﺎﻥ ﻓﻬﻡ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻁﺭﻕ ﻝﻠﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺸﻜل ﻋﺒﺌﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺸﻌﺏ )ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻭﺼل ﺇﻝﻰ ﻋﺘﺒﺔ ﺍل‪ 45‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ ﺒﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻀﻁﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻤﺭﺍﻋﺎﺘﻪ ﻭﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺭﺅﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻝﻪ ﻭﻝﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻁﻲ ﻤﻌﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ‪ %162‬ﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2008‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ‪ %180‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2006‬ﻭﺘﻌ ‪‬ﺩ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺨﻁﻴﺭﺓ ﺠﺩﺍﹰ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺘﻜ‪‬ﺒل ﺃﻱ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﺤﺘﺭﺍﺯﻱ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻝﻠﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﺘﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺒﻴ‪‬ﻨﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻁﻲ‬
‫ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺃﺒﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﻤﺴﺄﻝﺔ ﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻠﻔﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻗﻭﺓ ﻭﻤﺘﺎﻨﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺩﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺽ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺍﺨﻴل ﻝﺘﻘﻠﻴﺹ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺭﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺸﺠﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻤﻼﺫﹰﺍ ﺁﻤﻨﹰﺎ ﻝﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﺇﻝﻴﻪ ﻭﻝﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺯﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﻨﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ ﻴﺒﻘﻰ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻋﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺤﻤﻠﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺒﻘﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻬﺩﻑ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ‪ -‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺃﻗل ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‪ -‬ﺃﻻ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻋﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻌﻤل ﻭﺯﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻤﻀﻤﺎﺭ ﻝﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻬﺩﻑ‪ ،‬ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﻻ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﺤﺠﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺩﺍﻨﺔ ﺨﻼل ‪ 2009‬ﻋـﻠﻰ ‪ 4‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﻗﺘﺭﺽ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻓﻘﻁ ‪ 4‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻭﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﻘﺎﺒل‬
‫ﻨﻤﻭ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ % 4‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﺃﻤﺭ ﻤﺭﺘﻘﺏ‪ ،‬ﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ .2008‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺩﺍﻥ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ 4‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﺴﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻤﺠﺩﺩﺍﹰ‪ ،‬ﻤﺎ ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﹰﺍ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻋﺎﺩ ﻝﻴﺘﺨﺫ ﻤﻨﺤﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻌﻴ ﹰﺎ‪(12).‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺸﻜل ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺩﺍﻨﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﻀﻌﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻤﻨﻊ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﻝﺘﺤﻴﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩ ﻋﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﺩﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﺒﺭﺯﻫﺎ ﻗﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﻜﻭﺩ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻠﻭﺡ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻓﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺒﺄﺴﺭﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺒﻭﺼﻔﻪ ﺠﺯﺀﹰﺍ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻭل ﺇﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺒﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻻﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺘﻘﺏ ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻻﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺄﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻝﻴﺱ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻜﺈﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻝﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺘﻘﺏ ﺘﻤﺕ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺭﻭﺍﺘﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻲ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺴﻴﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺨﻔﻴﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻝﻀﺦ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﻭﻝﻠﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻻ ﻴﺴﻤﺢ ﺒﺫﻝﻙ‪ .‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﺤﺼل ﺇﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﻲ ﻓﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺤــل ﻴﻜﻤﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺘﻴﻥ‪ :‬ﺇﻤﺎ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺩﺍﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﺒﺏ ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺌﻡ ﻻ ﻴﺴﻤﺢ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺸﻐﻴل ﺍﻝﻘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺭﻫﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻻﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺴﻴﻀﻌﻑ ﺒﻼ ﺸﻙ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ‪ .‬ﻭﻜل ﺍﺴﺘﺩﺍﻨﺔ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﻨﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻀﻐﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻝﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺘﻴﺵ ﻋﻥ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻝﻠﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﺘﻤ ﹼﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﺘﻜﻤﻥ ﺇﺸﻜﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺤﺩ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﺍﺌﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ‪ ،‬ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﻬﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻀﺭﺍﺌﺏ ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺘ ‪‬‬
‫ﻤﺭﻏﻭﺏ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻠﺤﻅﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺭﺠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﻝﻼﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺠﻤﻠﺔ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻝﺘﺤﺭﻴﻙ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻓﺭﺹ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﻜﺎﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﺍﺌﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻨﺯﺍل ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﻔﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻻﺴﺘﻘﻁﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﺍﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻜﻥ ﺍﻷﻫﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻜل ﺫﻝﻙ ﻫﻭ‬
‫ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺥ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻭﺍﻷﻤﻨﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﻜﺏ ﻝﻠﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻝﺞ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺹ ﻜﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﻭﺘﻤﻴ‪‬ﺯ ﻗﻁﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻤﻥ ﻭﺭﺍﺌﻬﻤﺎ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺤﻘﻕ‬
‫ﺼﻤﻭﺩﹰﺍ ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻭﻴﺅﺘﻲ ﺃﻜﻠﻪ ﺇﻻ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻭﺃﻤﻨﻲ ﻴﺠﻌل‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺠﺯﻴﺭﺓ ﺁﻤﻨﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﻭﺩﻋﻴﻥ ﻭﻤﺤ ﹼﻔﺯﺓ ﻝﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻝﻁﺎﻝﻤﺎ ﺸﻜﻠﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺭﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺼﺭﺍﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻼ ﻝﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ ﻭﻝﻭﻀﻌﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﺜﺎل ﻓﺒﻌﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻨﻔﻘﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻘﺘ ﹰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﺸﻜﻴل ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺘﻴﺔ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺠﻴﺵ ﺍﻹﺴﺭﺍﺌﻴﻠﻲ ﺒﺘﺩﻤﻴﺭ ﺠﺯﺀ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺭﺏ ﺘﻤﻭﺯ‬
‫)ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻹﺴﺭﺍﺌﻴﻠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ‪ (2006‬ﻭﻗﺩﺭﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﺒـ‪ 15‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ )ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻀﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻝﺤﻘﺕ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻝﺒﻨﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺘﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ‪ 3.6‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻤﻊ ﺘﻬﺩﻡ ‪ 15‬ﺃﻝﻑ ﻤﺴﻜﻥ ﻭ‪ 80‬ﺠﺴﺭﺍﹰ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﺃﺼﻴﺒﺕ ‪ 94‬ﻁﺭﻴﻘ ﹰﺎ‬
‫ﺒﺄﻀﺭﺍﺭ ﺃﻭ ﻫﺩﻤﺕ ﺘﻤﺎﻤﹰﺎ(‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺒﻘﻰ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺘﻭﺃﻤﻴﻥ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﺸﺘﻜﻰ ﺃﺤﺩﻫﻤﺎ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻰ ﻝﻪ ﺍﻵﺨﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺒﺩﻭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﻜﻴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺭﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺃﻨﻪ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺤﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺃﻱ ﺨﻠل ﺃﻤﻨﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺇﺸﻜﺎل ﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻥ‬
‫ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻷﻤﻨﻲ ﺃﺸﺩ ﺒﺄﺴ ﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻠﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻴﻭﻡ ﺒﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﻤﺎ ﺤﺼل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺘﺠﻨﺏ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﻫﺎ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﺤﺘﻰ ﺍﻵﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻜﻥ ﺇﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺃﺭﺩﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2009‬ﻓﺎﻷﻤﺭ ﻴﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻭﺍﻷﻤﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﻤﺴﺅﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻜل‬
‫ﻓﺭﻴﻕ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ‪(13).‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﻭﺍﺸﻲ‪:‬‬
‫)‪ -(1‬ﺠﺭﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻘﺒﺱ ﺍﻝﻜﻭﻴﺘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺜﻼﺜﺎﺀ ‪ 14‬ﻴﻭﻝﻴﻭ ‪ 2009‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ‪ ،12977‬ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺃﺩﻓﺎﻨﺘﺞ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ -(2‬ﻋﻠﻲ ﺩﺭﻭﻴﺵ‪ ،‬ﻤﺅﺘﻤﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﻨﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ‪2009-3-14 ،‬‬
‫)‪ -(3‬ﺠﺭﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻘﺒﺱ ﺍﻝﻜﻭﻴﺘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺜﻼﺜﺎﺀ ‪ 14‬ﻴﻭﻝﻴﻭ ‪ 2009‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ‪ ،12977‬ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺃﺩﻓﺎﻨﺘﺞ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ -(4‬ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺅﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺇﻝﻜﺘﺭﻭﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،(www.alrroya.com/node/1284) ،‬ﺠﻭﺯﻴﻑ‬
‫ﻁﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﺎﻭﺭﻩ ﻋﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻁﻴﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺨﻤﻴﺱ ‪ 28‬ﻤﺎﻴﻭ ‪ ،2009‬ﺍﻝﺜﻼﺜﺎﺀ ‪ 14‬ﻴﻭﻝﻴﻭ ‪ ,2009‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ‪1297‬‬
‫*‪ -‬ﻴﻌ ‪‬ﺭﻑ ﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻭﻜﻤﺔ ﻓﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺒﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﻝﻴﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻰ ﺘﺩﺍﺭ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﺩﺩ ﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺸﻐﻴل ﻭﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ ﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﺤﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‬
‫ﻭﺃﺼﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻻﻝﺘﺯﺍﻡ ﺒﺎﻝﻌﻤل ﻭﻓﻘ ﹰﺎ ﻝﻠﻘﻭﺍﻨﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺤﻘﻕ ﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ ﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺩﻋﻴﻥ ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ -(5‬ﺘﻠﻔﺯﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺤﺩﻴﺙ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻠﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺤﺎﻜﻡ ﻤﺼﺭﻑ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻜﺘﻭﺭ ﺭﻴﺎﺽ ﺴﻼﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ‬
‫ﺤﻭﺍﺭﻱ‪.hadiessaa@manartv.com.lb 2009-3-12 ،‬‬
‫)‪ -(6‬ﺠﺭﻴﺩﺓ ﺇﻴﻼﻑ ﺍﻹﻝﻜﺘﺭﻭﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺯﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﺸﻁﺢ‪ ،‬ﺃﺠﺭﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﺒﻠﺔ ﻨﺯﻴﻬﺔ ﺴﻌﻴﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ‪،2986‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﺒﺕ ‪ 25‬ﻴﻭﻝﻴﻭ ‪2009‬ﻡ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ -(7‬ﻭﻜﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻷﻨﺒﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺴﻌﻭﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﺸﻌﺒﺎﻥ‪1430‬ﻫـ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﻓﻕ ‪23‬‬
‫ﻴﻭﻝﻴﻭ ‪2009‬ﻡ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ -(8‬ﺠﺭﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل‪ ،‬ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻠﺔ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺩﻴﺭ ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻁﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﺍﻝﺤﻭﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺨﻤﻴﺱ‪ 23‬ﺘﻤﻭﺯ‬
‫‪ ،2009‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ‪.3371‬‬
‫)‪ -(9‬ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل‪ ،‬ﺤﺩﻴﺙ ﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻝﻭﺯﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ ﻓﺅﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻴﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺠﻠﺴﺔ ﻤﺠﻠﺱ ﺍﻝﻭﺯﺭﺍﺀ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﻌﺎﺀ ‪ 1430/6/2‬ﻫـ ‪ -‬ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﻓﻕ‪ 2009/5/27‬ﻡ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ -(10‬ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺅﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﺭﻭﺕ‪ ،‬ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﻼ ﺼﻐﺒﻴﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺴﺒﺕ ‪ 11‬ﻴﻭﻝﻴﻭ ‪2009‬‬
‫)‪ -(11‬ﺠﺭﻴﺩﺓ ﺇﻴﻼﻑ ﺍﻹﻝﻜﺘﺭﻭﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺯﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﺸﻁﺢ‪ ،‬ﺃﺠﺭﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﺒﻠﺔ ﻨﺯﻴﻬﺔ ﺴﻌﻴﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ‪،2986‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﺒﺕ ‪ 25‬ﻴﻭﻝﻴﻭ ‪2009‬ﻡ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ -(12‬ﺠﺭﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩ‪ ،‬ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻠﺔ ﻤﻊ ﻭﺯﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﺸﻁﺢ‪ ،‬ﺃﺠﺭﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﺒﻠﺔ ﺒﺘﺭﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﺤﺩﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ‪-9 ،1817‬‬
‫‪.2009-03‬‬
‫)‪ -(13‬ﺘﻠﻔﺯﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺤﺩﻴﺙ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻘﺎﺒﻠﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺤﺎﻜﻡ ﻤﺼﺭﻑ ﻝﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻜﺘﻭﺭ ﺭﻴﺎﺽ ﺴﻼﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ‬
‫ﺤﻭﺍﺭﻱ‪.hadiessaa@manartv.com.lb 2009-3-12 ،‬‬
‫ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻝﺭﻓﻴﻕ*‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﻴﺤﻴﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻀﺭﺒﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻻﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺍﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺱ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺫﻋﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺤﻴﺙ ﻭﺍﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻨﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺕ ﺒﺸﻜل‬
‫ﺨﻁﻴﺭ ﻭﻤﺘﺴﺎﺭﻉ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻻﺴﺎﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺍﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺨﻠﻕ ﻤﻭﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﺫﻋﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻭﺘﻌﺎﻗﺒﺕ ﺍﻻﺤﺩﺍﺙ‬
‫ﻤﻊ ﺍﻓﻼﺱ ﺒﻨﻙ ﻝﻴﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﺭﺍﺫﺭﺯ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺍﺩﻯ ﺍﻻﻤﺭ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎﺌﻲ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺒﻭﻕ ﻻﻨﻘﺎﺫ‬
‫ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﻁﺒﻊ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻗﺩ ﺨﻠﻕ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺘﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺘﺤﺎﻭل ﺍﻥ ﺘﻀﺦ ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻻﺭﺍﺕ ﻝﺨﻠﻕ‬
‫ﻨﻭﻉ ﺍﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﻁﻭﻴل ﺍﻻﻤﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﻤﻥ ﻜل ﺒﻠﺩ ﺍﻥ ﻴﺴﻌﻰ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺤﻠﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻝﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻻ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﻴﺤﺩﺙ ﻝﺒﻌﺽ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺤﺩﺙ ﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﻝﻴﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﺭﺍﺫﺭﺯ ﻭﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﺒﺎﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻ‬
‫ﺍﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺍﺸﺘﺒﺎﻙ ﻤﻊ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻭﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻁﺭﻕ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻭﺭﻗﺔ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﺴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻭﺍﺨﻴﺭ ﻴﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺍﺜﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‬
‫ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻭﺍﺌﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻓﺎﻨﻪ ﻗﺩ ﺍﺩﻯ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻝﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻪ ﻋﻤﻠﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ %50‬ﻤﺎ ﻋﺩﺍ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺠﻭﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﺭﻭﺍﺘﺏ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻁﻠﻕ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻜﻴﻑ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻝﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﺍﻥ ﻴﻌﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺤﺼﻠﺕ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-1‬‬
‫ﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻝﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﺍﻥ ﻴﺠﺭﻴﻬﺎ ﻜﺘﻌﻭﻴﺽ ﺒﺩﻻ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬ ‫‪-2‬‬
‫ﻴﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻤل ﺍﻥ ﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﺃﻭ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻨﻘﻁﻊ ﺘﻤﺎﻤﺎ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻤﺜل ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﻨﺒﻊ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻜﻭﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺤﺎﻭل ﺍﻥ ﺘﻌﺎﻝﺞ ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻋﺎ ﻫﺎﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻻﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻝﻬﺎ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﻭﻴﺽ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻋﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺴﺘﻐﻼل ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻯ ﺍﺴﺘﻐﻼﻻ ﺍﻤﺜل‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬

‫ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻝﻭﺼﻔﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻁﺭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺭﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻰ ﻭﺼﻑ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ ﺍﺜﺭ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺨﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﺤﺎﻭﻝﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻘﺩﺭ ﺍﺜﺭ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻭ ﻓﺎﺌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺼﻐﺭﻯ )‪ ،(OLS‬ﻭﺘﻡ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺘﻠﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﺨﻴﺭﺍ ﺍﻝﺘﻁﺭﻕ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻫﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻝﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 1-1‬ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻻﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻴﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﻭﺤﺴﺏ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺭﺍﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﻓﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺒﺎﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﺒﻨﻙ "ﺒﻴﺭ ﺴﺘﺭﻨﺯ" ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺒﻘﻭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺸﺭﺍﺀﻩ ﻝﻸﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﻻﻨﻪ ﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺴﻴﻜﺴﺏ ﻭﻴﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻼﻴﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ‬
‫ﻭﻝﻡ ﻴﺩﺭ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺴﺘﻜﺒﺩﻩ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻓﺎﺩﺤﺔ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺒﻪ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﻴﺩﺭﺍﻝﻲ ﺴﺎﺭﻉ‬
‫ﺒﺘﺩﺒﻴﺭ ﺸﺭﺍﺀﻩ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ) ‪ GBM‬ﺠﻴﻪ ﺒﻴﻪ ﻤﻭﺭﻏﺎﻥ ﺘﺸﻴﺱ(‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺨﺹ ﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﻝﻡ ﻴﻘﺩﺭﻭﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺩﺍﺩ ﻗﺭﻭﻀﻬﻡ‬
‫ﻅﻠﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺘﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩ ﺒﺎﻀﻁﺭﺍﺩ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺇﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻬﺎﻭﻱ ﺸﺭﻜﺘﻴﻥ ﻭﻫﻤﺎ " ﻓﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﺎ " ‪ " fannie mae‬ﻭ"‬
‫ﻓﺭ ﻴﺩﻱ ﻤﺎﻙ" ‪ "..Freddie mac‬ﺍﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﻴﺩﺭﺍﻝﻲ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﺎﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻻﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺨﺎﻝﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻤﺔ ﻭﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻻﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺘﻤﺜﻠﺕ ﻓﻲ "ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻡ" ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺤﻤل ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﻴﺩﺭﺍﻝﻲ ﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﻫﺎﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺘﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺃﺨﺫ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﺘﻘﻪ ﺩﻴﻭﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺒﻠﻎ ) ‪ (5.4‬ﺘﺭﻴﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻝﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻻﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻓﻘﺩ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺨﻁﻴﺭﺓ ﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻅل ﻴﺤﺎﺭﺏ ﻜل ﺍﻻﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺨﺎﻝﻑ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺤﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ) ﺍﻝﻴﻪ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﻀﻌﺔ ﻝﻠﻌﺭﺽ ﻭﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ (‪.xv‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻝﻪ ﺼﺩﻯ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻝﺩﻯ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻻﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻫﻭ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻋﻼﻨﻪ ﺤﻭل ﺍﻓﻼﺱ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ‬
‫ﺭﺍﺒﻊ ﺒﻨﻙ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻫﻭ "ﻝﻴﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﺭﺍﺫﺭﺯ" ‪ Lehman Brothers‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﺫﻱ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺘﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺒﻌﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ‬
‫ﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻤﻭﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭ ﻭﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻼﺯﻡ‬
‫ﻝﻪ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺍﻋﻠﻥ ﺇﻓﻼﺴﻪ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﺒﻨﻙ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ ﺒﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻏﺎﻤﺭﺓ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﻪ ﻓﺎﺸﺘﺭﺍﺀ ﺒﻨﻙ "ﻤﻴﺭﻴل ﻝﻴﻨﺵ" ﻭﺘﻜﺒﺩ‬
‫ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻗﺩﺭﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻫﻨﺎ ﺴﺠﻠﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﺒﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻓﺎﺩﺤﺔ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺸﻬﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻤﻨﺫ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﻅﻴﻡ‪.‬‬
‫‪xv‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﺘﻌﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻤﻨﺫ‬ ‫ﻭﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﺤﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻫﺒﻁﺕ ﺍﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﻬﻡ ﻫﺒﻭﻁﺎ ﺤﺎﺩﺍ ﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﻨﻭﻝﻭﺠﻴﺎ ﻭﻗﺩ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺒﻌﺽ ﻤﻅﺎﻫﺭ ﺍﻝﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺒﺭﺯﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ ﻭﺍﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ ﻭﺤﺎﻭﻝﺕ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺘﺘﺠﻪ ﺍﻝﻰ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺠل ﺍﺴﺘﻌﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻨﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺤﻴﺙ ﺤﺩﺙ ﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫ﻭﻝﻜﻥ ﻝﻭﺤﻅ ﺒﺎﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻻﺕ ﻤﺘﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻭل ﻴﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﻲ‬
‫) ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﻁﻔﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻨﺴﻴﻕ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺒﻴﻥ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺍﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺘﻤﺜل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﻭل ﻓﻲ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻨﻅﻤﺕ ﺍﻝﻴﺎﺕ ﻋﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻴﺯ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻪ ﻤﻔﺘﻭﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﺨﻀﺎﻉ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻰ ﻤﻨﻅﻭﻤﺔ ﻤﺘﺂﻜﻠﺔ ﻭﻤﺘﻨﺎﻗﻀﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻀﻭﺍﺒﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﻨﻭﻉ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻴﺸﺒﺔ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻴﺯ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺢ ﻤﻜﺎﺘﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺇﻋﺘﻤﺩﻩ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻗﺩ ﻤﻊ ﺴﻤﺎﺴﺭﺓ ﺃﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﺎﺌﺩﻫﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻨﺠﺯﻭﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺼﻔﻘﺎﺕ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﻠﻘﺩ ﺨﻀﻌﻭﺍ ﻝﻨﻔﺱ ﻤﻨﻅﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ ﻭﺍﻝﻀﻐﻭﻁ ﻝﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ﺤﺠﻡ ﻭﻋﺩﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺼﻔﻘﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻝﺙ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺠﻬﺯﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻴﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺒﻨﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﺠﻬﺯﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺒﻨﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﺘﺠﻬﺕ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﺎﻫل ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻝﻺﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺒﺭﺯﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﻌﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻜﺭﺭﺓ ﻭﺘﻡ ﺒﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺨﻠﻕ ﻤﺎ ﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﻴﻌﺭﻑ ﺒﺎﻝـ‬
‫)‪ (Sub Manbet‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺤﺩﺙ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺨﻠل ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ (‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻫﻡ ﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻗﺩﻤﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻋﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺠﺩﹰﺍ ﻝﻠﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﺒﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺠﻌﻠﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻠﻴﺒﺭﺍﻝﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺘﺠﺩ ﺤﺭﺠ ﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻷﺨﺫ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻡ ﻭﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﺍﺘﺨﺫﺕ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻋﻤﺔ ﻝﻌﺩﻡ ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ )‪ (AIG‬ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﺸﺭﻜﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺘﺼﺩﺭ ﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺒﺎﺩﻝﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻲ ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﺘﺠﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﻬﺩﻑ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ ﺃﻭﻝﺌﻙ ﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﻴﻘﺩﻤﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻋﻭﻤﺔ ﺒﺭﻫﻭﻥ ﻋﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﻗﺎﻤﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ )‪ (85‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺘﺨﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻥ )‪ (%80‬ﻤﻥ ﺃﺴﻬﻤﻬﺎ ﻝﻠﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻬﺫﺍ ﺘﻤﻠﻜﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﻗﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﺃﻤﻭﺍل ﺩﺍﻓﻌﻲ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﺍﺌﺏ ﻝﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺸﻬﺩﺕ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺨﻁﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻤﺘﺴﺎﺭﻋﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺒﻭﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻲ ﺍﺜﺎﺭﺕ ﺒﻭﺍﺩﺭ ﻤﻭﺠﺔ ﺫﻋﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﻭﺍﻕ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻌﺎﻗﺒﺕ ﺍﻻﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﻤﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻓﻼﺱ ﻤﺼﺭﻑ "ﻝﻴﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﺭﺍﺫﺭﺯ" ﻭﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﺩﻤﺎﺝ ﺒﻴﻥ" ﻤﻴﺭﻴل ﻝﻴﻨﺵ" ﻭ"ﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻭﻑ ﺍﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ" ﻭﺘﺤﻭل ﺁﺨﺭ ﻭﺍﻜﺒﺭ‬
‫ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﻥ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻭﻭل ﺴﺘﺭﻴﺕ" ﻤﻭﺭﻏﺎﻥ ﺴﺘﺎﻨﻠﻲ" ﻭﻏﻭﻝﺩﻤﺎﻥ ﺴﺎﻜﺱ" ﺍﻝﻰ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺘﻴﻥ ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺘﻴﻥ ﻗﺎﺒﻀﺘﻴﻥ‪,‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﺨﻴﺭﺍ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻻﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎﺌﻲ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺒﻭﻕ ﻻﻨﻘﺎﺫ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﻗﺔ )‪ (A I G‬ﻭﻅﻬﻭﺭ‬
‫ﺒﻭﺍﺩﺭ ﻤﻭﺠﺔ ﺫﻋﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﻭﺍﻕ‪.xv‬‬
‫ﻭﻻ ﺘﺯﺍل ﺍﺴﺌﻠﺔ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻋﺎﻝﻘﺔ ﺤﻭل ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﻌﺩ‬
‫ﺇﻓﻼﺱ ﻤﺼﺭﻑ ﻝﻴﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﺭﺍﺫﺭﺯ‪ ,‬ﻫل ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﺨﺭﻯ ﺍﻋﻼﻥ ﺇﻓﻼﺴﻬﺎ؟‬
‫ﻭﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﻗﺩ ﻁﺎﻝﺕ ﻓﺌﺔ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻻﻋﻤﺎل ﻓﻲ ﻭﻭل‬
‫ﺴﺘﺭﻴﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻨﻪ ﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻫﻲ ﻤﻌﺭﻀﺔ ﺍﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻭﺍﻫﺎ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻏﻠﺏ ﺍﻨﺸﻁﺘﻬﺎ ﻝﻬﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﺎﻻﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﻝﻡ ﺘﻜﻥ ﺘﺴﺘﻨﺩ ﺍﻝﻰ ﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻜﺒﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺎﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﺨﺭﻯ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺘﻌﺭﻀﻬﺎ ﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻱ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺘﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺒﻌﺽ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻤﻌﺭﻀﺔ ﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﺒﺎﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻭﻝﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻬﺫﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻥ ﺘﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﻻﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻨﻬﺎ ﻝﻴﺴﺕ ﺒﻤﺄﻤﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻓﻼﺱ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺫﻋﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺨﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﻠﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﺘﺘﺩﺨل ﻻﻨﻪ‬
‫ﻻ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻥ ﺘﺩﻉ ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﻤﺭ ﺍﻥ ﻴﺤﺼل‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺩﻝﻴل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﺎ ﻋﻤﺩﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺘﺄﻤﻴﻡ ﻤﺼﺭﻑ "ﻨﻭﺭﺫﺭﻥ ﺭﻭﻙ" ﻓﻲ ﺍﻴﻠﻭل ‪ 2007‬ﻜﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻗﺎﻤﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﻝﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﺩﻋﻡ ﻤﺼﺭﻑ "ﺍﻱ ﻜﺎ ﺒﻲ" ﻝﺘﺠﻨﻴﺒﻪ ﺍﻻﻓﻼﺱ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ‪ 1995‬ﺠﻤﻌﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻨﺴﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﺼﻭل ﻤﺼﺭﻑ "ﻜﺭﻴﺩﻴﻪ ﻝﻴﻭﻨﻴﻪ" ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﺼﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻻﻨﻘﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺸﻨﻁﻥ ﻋﻤﺩﺕ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻁﻼﻕ ﺨﻁﺔ ﺍﻨﻘﺎﺫ ﻀﺨﻤﺔ ﺒﻘﻴﻤﺔ ‪ 700‬ﻤﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﻝﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﺯﺍﻨﺔ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺘﺸﺘﺭﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﺼﻭﻻ ﻋﻘﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﺠﺯﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺒﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﻻﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﺤﺭﻴﻙ ﻋﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﺒﺎﻥ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻴﻪ ﺍﻱ ﺠﻲ ) ‪ ( A I G‬ﺍﻻﻭﻝﻰ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻝﻠﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻝﻰ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺤﺭﺝ ﺍﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻭﺸﻙ ﺍﻻﻓﻼﺱ ﺍﻻﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺨﻠﻕ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ ﺤﻭل ﻤﺩﻯ ﺘﻬﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﺍﺨﺭﻯ ﺍﻴﻀﹶﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﻥ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻴﻪ ﺍﻱ ﺠﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻨﻭﻴﻊ ﻨﺸﺎﻁﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﻨﺸﺎﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻋﺭﻀﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺘﺄﻤﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺼﻠﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻥ ﻭﻜﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﻗﺎﻤﺕ ﺒﺨﻔﺽ ﻋﻼﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﺍﻻﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺍﺭﻏﻤﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫ﺒﺸﻜل ﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻤﻭﺍل ﺘﺴﻤﺢ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻼﺀﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻻ ﺍﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﻡ ﺒﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻻﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺭﻏﻡ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻝﻡ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻱ ﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺤﺘﻰ ﺍﻻﻥ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﺒﺭﺯ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ ﻝﻤﺎﺫﺍ ﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺩﻋﻡ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﺍﻴﻪ ﺍﻱ ﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﻴﺩﺭﺍﻝﻲ ﺍﻻﻤﺭﻴﻜﻥ؟‪ ،‬ﻭﻝﻤﺎﺫﺍ ﺘﺭﻙ ﻤﺼﺭﻑ ﻝﻴﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﺭﺍﺫﺭﺯ‬
‫ﻴﻌﻠﻥ ﺍﻓﻼﺴﺔ؟ ﻭﺤﻭل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ ﻅﻬﺭ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺍﻓﻌﻭﻥ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻨﺩﺭﻴﺔ ﻝﻴﻔﻲ ﻻﻨﻎ‪ xv‬ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺍﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﻴﺩﺭﺍﻝﻲ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻓﻼﺱ ﺒﻨﻙ ﻝﻴﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﺭﺍﺫﺭﺯ ﻝﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺩﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﻭﺭﺓ ﻝﻌﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﻭﺩﻋﻴﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻼﺌﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻁﻠﻕ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺭﺕ ﻭﺍﺸﻨﻁﻥ ﺍﻥ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻓﻼﺱ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬
‫ﺒﺴﻴﻁﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﺒﺩﻭ ﺒﺎﻥ ﻗﻠﻕ ﺍﺼﺤﺎﺏ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻻﻤﻭﺍل ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻭﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺍﺴﺌﻠﺔ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻫل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺤﺼﻭل ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺎﺕ؟ ﻭﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻗﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺨﺭﻴﻥ؟ ﻭﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻗﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ؟ ﻭﻫل ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺤﺼﻭل ﺍﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ؟ ﻭﺤﻭل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ ﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﺒﺭﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﻤﺘﻘﻠﺒﺔ ﻝﻠﻐﺎﻴﺔ ﻭﻻ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﺤﺩ ﻋﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻬﺩﻭﺀ ﺍﻝﻴﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻀﺭ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺍﻨﻬﺎ ﻻ ﺘﺯﺍل ﺍﻻﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻋﺭﻀﺔ ﻻﻱ ﺤﺩﺙ ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺘﻁﺭﺡ ﺸﻜﻭﻙ ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺤﻭل ﺍﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﻁ ﺍﻝﻤﻁﺭﻭﺤﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻻﻭﺭﻭﺒﻴﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺴﺠﻠﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺼﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻭﺭﻭﺒﺎ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻌﺎ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ‪ 20‬ﻭ‪ %25‬ﻤﻨﺫ ﺴﻨﺔ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻔﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻫﺒﻁﺕ ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺍ ﺤﺘﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻥ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺤﺼﻭل ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ‪.‬ﻭﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻔﻪ ﻫﺒﻭﻁ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ %20‬ﻓﻲ ﻴﻭﻡ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﺍﻭ ‪ %30‬ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻁﻭل‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﻝﻌﻭﺍﻗﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺨﺭﻴﻥ ﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﺍﻭﺩﻋﻭﺍ ﺍﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻭ ﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺘﻜﺒﺩﻭﺍ ﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺤﻴﺙ‬
‫ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻨﺩﺍﺘﻬﻡ‪ .‬ﺍﻤﺎ ﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﻴﺤﺘﺎﺠﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﻤﻭﺍل ﺒﺸﻜل ﻓﻭﺭﻱ ﺍﻭ ﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﺘﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ ﺍﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﻡ ﻨﻘﺩﺍ )ﻭﻓﻕ‬
‫ﺨﻁﺔ ﺍﺩﺨﺎﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﺤﻘﺔ ﻤﺜﻼ( ﻓﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﻤﻴﻠﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ ﺍﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺨﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻱ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻤﺜل‬
‫ﺩﻓﺎﺘﺭ ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ ﺍﻭ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺤﺎﻝﻴﺎ ﻓﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﻤﻐﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺠل ﺍﺠﺘﺫﺍﺏ ﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻨﺸﺎﻁﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﺒل‪ ,‬ﺴﻴﺘﻭﺠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﻻ ﺘﺴﺘﺤﻕ ﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺘﻬﻡ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻻﺸﻬﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺒﻠﺔ )ﻤﺜل ﻤﺒﺎﻝﻎ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺤﻴﺎﺓ‬
‫ﻤﺜﻼ ﺍﻭ ﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ( ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ ﻴﻤﻜﻨﻬﻡ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻅﺎﺭ‪ ,‬ﺍﻥ ﻴﺘﺴﻠﺤﻭﺍ ﺒﺎﻝﺼﺒﺭ ﻭﻴﻨﺘﻅﺭﻭﺍ ﺤﺘﻰ ﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺍﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻤﺠﺩﺩﺍ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻤل ﺍﻥ ﺘﺼﺢ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻘﻭل ﺍﻥ ﺍﻱ ﺍﻤﻭﺍل ﺘﻭﻅﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺩﺍﺌﻤﺎ ﻤﺭﺒﺤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﺒﻌﻴﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻗﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻬﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻓﺎﻨﻪ ﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺼﻠﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺸﺭﻭﻁ ﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺴﻴﻁﺎﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻻﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺴﺘﺘﺸﺩﺩ ﺍﻜﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺭﺍﺽ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺴﺘﺠﺩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺼﻌﻭﺒﺔ ﺍﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻗﺒل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻭ ﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ‪ ,‬ﻻﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺭﻯ ﺍﺭﻴﻙ ﻫﺎﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺨﺒﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ "ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺼﺩ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻨﺴﻲ ﻝﻠﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ" ﺍﻨﻪ "ﺒﻌﺩﻤﺎ ﺤﻘﻘﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻋﺎ ﺒﻤﻌﺩل ‪ %3,1‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ‪ 1995‬ﻭ‪ 2005,‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻥ ﺘﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ %1,9‬ﻋﺎﻡ‬
‫‪ ".2009‬ﻭﺴﻴﻬﺩﺩ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺹ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻤﻭﺍل ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ "ﺍﻭﻝﺭ ﺍﺭﻤﻴﺱ" ﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺼﻌﻭﺒﺎﺕ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ 10‬ﺍﻝﻰ ‪ %15‬ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2008‬ﻓﻲ ﻓﺭﻨﺴﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎ ﺍﺴﺎﺴﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻭﻴﻬﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻯ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻥ‬
‫ﻴﻁﺎﻭل ﺍﻻﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﻤﻴﺯ ﺒﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻓﺼﻠﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﺘﺎﻝﻴﻥ‪ ,‬ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﻴﻭﺭﻭ ﻭﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﺍﻴﻀﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﻋﺏ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻭﺍﺠﻬﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺤﺩ ﺍﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻤﺎ ﺴﻴﻨﻌﻜﺱ‬
‫ﺒﺸﻜل ﺍﻜﺒﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻁﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻠﺫﻴﻥ ﻴﻌﺎﻨﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﺼﻼ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺜﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻏﻴﺭ ﺭﺴﻤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﺏ‪/‬ﺍﻏﺴﻁﺱ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺘﻪ‬
‫ﻝﻠﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻓﺨﻔﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻰ ‪% 3,9‬ﻝﻠﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2008‬ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ‪ %4,1‬ﺴﺎﺒﻘﺎ‪ ,‬ﻭﺍﻝﻰ ‪ %3,7‬ﻝﻠﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2009‬ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ‪%3,9‬‬
‫ﺴﺎﺒﻘﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 2-1‬ﺍﺜﺎﺭ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺸﻌﻭﺭ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻝﻐﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺫﻋﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﺨﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺤﺩﻕ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺭﻏﻡ ﻏﻨﺎﺀﻫﺎ ﻭﺭﻏﻡ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﻗﻭﺓ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻗﻬﺎ ﻭﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻤﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﻭﺘﺤﻤل ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺭﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻡ‬
‫ﻭﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻴﺭ ﺒﺎﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻔﻘﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻻ ﺘﻤﻠﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻤﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﺃﻤﺭ ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﺇﻻ ﻜﺜﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺩﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﺅﺍل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻐﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺎﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﻭﻑ ﺇﺯﺍﺀ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺼﻔﺔ ﺒﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺘﺎﻤﺔ ﻭﺒﺼﺩﻕ ﻜﺎﻤل ﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺴﺘﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﻤﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻝﺴﻌﻲ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﻜل ﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﺯﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺠل ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻔﻴﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺜﺎﺭ ﺘﻠﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻤل ﺍﻥ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﺒﺎﻨﻪ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻓﺎﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺭﻭﻑ ﺒﺎﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻭ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻻﺨﺭﻯ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻭﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﺘﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﺍﻻﺠﻬﺯﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺍﻤﻭﺍل ﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ ﻭﺍﻭﺭﺒﺎ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ‬
‫ﺘﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﻁﻭﻴل ﻭﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻌﺽ ﻴﺘﺴﺎﺀل ﻜﻴﻑ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻀﺭﺏ ﺍﻻﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻻﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﻭﻜﻴﻑ ﻴﻨﻅﺭ ﺍﻝﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺱ ﺒﻌﻴﺩﺍ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ ﻭﺍﻭﺭﺒﺎ ﻭﻝﻤﺎﺫﺍ ﻴﺘﻭﺠﺴﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ؟ ﻭﻫل ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻭﻑ ﻤﺒﺭﺭﺍﺕ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ؟ ﻭﻝﻼﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺨﺒﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻻﻨﺩﻭﻨﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻋﺭﻓﺕ ﻤﺜﻴﻼ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﺭ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻤﻨﺫ‬
‫ﻋﺸﺭ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻫﻭﺕ ﺇﻨﺩﻭﻨﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺤﻀﻴﺽ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻭﺍﺠﻬﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻵﺴﻴﻭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻀﻁﺭﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﺩﻭﻨﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻻ‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻝﻠﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻓﻌل ﺃﻱ ﺸﻲﺀ ﻋﺩﺍ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﻭﺓ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺨل ﻭﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل‬
‫ﺘﻔﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺒﺭﻤﺘﻪ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺤﺘﻰ ﺍﻵﻥ ﻝﻡ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﺭ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻹﻨﺩﻭﻨﻴﺴﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺎ ﻋﺩﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻌﺽ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻤﻥ ﻴﻤﻠﻙ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻨﺫ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻤﺴﺕ ﺇﻨﺩﻭﻨﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪1988‬‬
‫ﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻜﻲ ﺍﻹﻨﺩﻭﻨﻴﺴﻲ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺤﺫﺭﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻌﺎﻤﻼﺘﻪ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺘﻭﺠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺃﻝﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺜﺒﺘﻭﺍ ﺃﻨﻬﻡ ﻗﺎﺩﺭﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺴﺩﻴﺩ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻫﻭ ﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼﻑ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺒﺩﻭ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺨﺹ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻨﻭﺤﺔ ﻭﺸﺭﻭﻁ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﺩﻴﺩ ﻭﻝﻬﺫﺍ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻭل ﺒﺄﻥ ﺇﻨﺩﻭﻨﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﺘﻌﻠﻤﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺱ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ‪ 1988‬ﻭﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻵﻥ ﺘﺠﻨﻲ ﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺭﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺼﻴﺏ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻤﺭ ﺒﻪ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ‪.xv‬‬
‫‪ 3 -1‬ﺍﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﻝﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺍﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻓﺎﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻥ ﻨﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻭﻻ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻫﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺍﺘﺴﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺍﻨﻪ ﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﻋﺏ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺘﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻨﺠﻤﺕ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﺭﺏ ﺍﻷﻫﻠﻴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﻋﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﺘﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﺒﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻤﻴﺯﺕ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺒﻌﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﻨﺸﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻘﺼﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻅل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫ﻻ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻝﻡ ﻴﻨﻔﺘﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﻤﺎ ﻗﺒﻠﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻅل ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻤﻨﻐﻠﻘﹰﺎ ﻭﻤﻨﻌﺯ ﹰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻀﻴﺔ ﻴﺘﺴﻡ ﺒﻌﺩﺓ ﺴﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﺜﻠﻪ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻜﻨﻭﻝﻭﺠﻴﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻔﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺜل ﻝﻠﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻀﻌﻑ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﺘﻜﻭﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺸﺎﻁﻴﻥ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﺴﻤﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻤﺎ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﻁﻭﺭﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺼﻐﺭ ﺤﺠﻡ ﻨﺸﺎﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ‬
‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﺸﺎﺒﻙ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ؛‬
‫ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻅل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻴﻌﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺠﺯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.xv‬‬
‫ﻭﻷﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻝﻡ ﻴﻤﺽ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﻋﻘﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻓﺄﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻻ ﻴﺯﺍل ﻴﺼﻨﻑ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺸﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻗل ﻨﻤﻭﹰﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ ،‬ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩﻴﺔ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩﻩ ﺍﻝﺒﺸﺭﻴﺔ )ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﻫﻠﺔ(‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺎ ﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺘﺩﻨﻲ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤل ﻴﻌﻴل ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺃﺭﺒﻌﺔ ﺃﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻝﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﺠﺩﺍﹰ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺒﻠﻎ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺇﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻭﻤﻲ ﺃﻗل ﻤﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ )ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺎﺩل ﺨﻁ ﺍﻝﻔﻘﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ( ﻝﺫﺍ ﻅﻠﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﺒﺸﻁﺭﻴﻬﺎ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1990‬ﺘﺘﺒﻊ ﺃﻨﻤﺎﻁﹰﺎ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻌﻠﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﻓﺭﻀﺘﻬﺎ ﺃﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺘﺸﻁﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻊ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1990‬ﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﻝﻠﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺇﺭﺍﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻤﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺨﺼﻭﺼ ﹰﺎ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺨﻁﺕ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺴﺭﺓ ﻝﺘﺭﺴﻴﺦ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺒﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪) 1994‬ﺍﻝﺤﺭﺏ ﺍﻷﻫﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺒﺎﻨﺘﻬﺎﺌﻬﺎ ﺘﺭﺴﺨﺕ ﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ (‪.xv‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺴﻤﺎﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻝﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﺘﻤﺜﻠﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﻘﺹ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻬﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺼﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﺎﻨﻲ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ‬
‫ﺒﻠﻎ ‪ %3.02‬ﺒﺤﺴﺏ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻝﻠﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻝﻠﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2004‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﻅﻬﺭ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻝﻠﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬
‫ﻥ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺭﻭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﻴﻥ ‪ 2004- 2003‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻔﻘﺭ؛ ﻷ ‪‬‬
‫ﺒﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻨﺼﻴﺏ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻰ ﻝﻡ ﻴﻜﻥ ﺴﻭﻯ ‪ ،%0.8‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﺃﻗل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺇﺫ ﻴﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ ﺒﻴﻥ ‪-1.2‬‬
‫‪ %1.7‬ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺎﹰ‪ ،‬ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻬﻤﺕ ﺃﻱ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﺨل ﺍﻝﻔﺭﺩﻱ‪.xv‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻝﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻀﻌﻑ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﺤﺼﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺸﺒﻪ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻠﺯﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻠـﻊ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﻜﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﻥ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل )ﻫﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﻗﺭﻭﺽ( ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻨﻜﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ* ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﻥ ‪ %34.4‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1990‬ﺇﻝﻰ ‪ %64.67‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،1995‬ﺜﻡ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ‬
‫‪ %70.94‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ .2004‬ﻭﺘﻌﻭﺩ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺘﺤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺩ ﺍﻝﺠﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻲ‪.xv‬‬
‫ﻼ‬
‫ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀ ﹰ‬
‫ﻋﻥ ﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻝﻠﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‪ .xv‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻌﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻅﺎﻫﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ**‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺠﺯ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﻅﺭﹰﺍ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻬﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻝﻠﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﻨﺫ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ )ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻝﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﻗﻑ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻴﻤﻥ ﺇﺯﺍﺀ ﺤﺭﺏ ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺞ‬
‫ﻝﻠﻌﺎﻡ ‪ (1990‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﻝﺠﺄﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺠﻪ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺃﺫﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺨﺯﺍﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻝﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺠﺯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻹﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻱ )ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﺭﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩ( ﺃﻱ ﺍﻝﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﺘﻀﺨﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺃﺜﱠﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﻭﺩ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻝﻨﻅﺭ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﻤﻥ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺎﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﺒﺭﺯ ﺍﻻﺜﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻝﻘﺩ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﺼﻑ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻴﺨﺴﺭ‬
‫ﻨﺼﻑ ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﺩﻯ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻲ ﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺭﺍﺝ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﻡ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2009‬ﺒﻤﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ ‪ ،%35.5‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ ،%3.5‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺴﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﺴﻠﺒﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻲ ﻭﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻥ ﻴﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ %1.7‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ ،2009‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺒﺤﺴﺏ ﻤﺎ ﺍﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻴﻪ ﺍﻝﺨﺒﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﺍﺤﻤﺩ ﺤﺠﺭ‪.xv‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻗﺩ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻝﻪ ﺍﺜﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻭﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺘﻬﺎ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ %70‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻭﺍﻝﻐﺎﺯ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻤﻥ‬
‫‪ 98.88‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻝﻠﺒﺭﻤﻴل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺨﻼل ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2008‬ﺍﻝﻰ ﻤﺎﻴﻘﺎﺭﺏ ‪ 40‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2009‬ﺍﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻻﻴﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ ﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2009‬ﺒﻤﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ ‪ ،%43.5‬ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻻﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ ﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2009‬ﺒﻨﺤﻭ ‪.%26‬‬
‫ﻭﺤﺴﺏ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﺤﻭل ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﺜﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻓﺎﻨﻪ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﻨﺎﺩﻕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻁﺎﻋﻡ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﻘل ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺼﻼﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ )‪ ،%( 3- 1‬ﻭﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻥ‬
‫ﻴﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺸﻴﻴﺩ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ ‪ ،%4‬ﻭﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﺴﺒﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺹ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺸﻴﻴﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻨﻤﺔ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫ﻤﻨﺘﺠﻲ ﺍﻝﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ ،%1‬ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺴﻴﻊ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﻝﻠﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻭﻀﻊ ﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻋﻤﺎل ﻨﺘﺠﻴﺔ ﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺠﻬﺎﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺃﻭ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺠﻬﺎﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻁﻠﻕ ﻴﺫﻜﺭ ﺍﻝﺨﺒﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺤﺠﺭ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ 2009‬ﻻ‬
‫ﻴﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ‪ %4.8‬ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻥ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻥ ﻴﺼل ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻝﻰ ‪ %7.4‬ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺩﺨﻭل ﺍﻝﻐﺎﺯ ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺨﻼل ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2009‬ﻭﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺘﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺘﺼل ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻰ ‪.%2.5‬‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﺭﻀﺔ ﻝﻼﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ‪،‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺒﺎﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻗل ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻓﺎﻨﻪ ﻝﺭﻓﻊ ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻴﻨﺒﻐﻰ ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻡ ﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬
‫‪ -‬ﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﺩﻭﻝﺔ ﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﺢ ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻨﻌﺩﻡ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻝﻁﻭﻴل ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺘﺯﺍل ﺘﻘﻠﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﺢ ﻝﻠﻴﻤﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﺒﻁﺎﻝﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﻘﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺝ ) ﺍﻫﻡ ‪ 30‬ﺴﻠﻌﺔ ( ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﻡ ﺘﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻜﺎﻝﺒﻥ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﻊ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺍﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻭﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﻭﺩﻉ ﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻻﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻭﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﻭﻗﻌﺕ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻓﺎﺩﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻓﺎﻥ ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﺎ ﺒﺎﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﻬﻡ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻝﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﺎﻨﻪ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﺄﻜﻴﺩ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺴﺎﻤﻴل ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻴﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﻤﻥ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺨﻠﻘﺕ ﺭﻜﻭﺩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺘﺤﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ‬
‫ﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻗﺩ ﺍﺜﺭﺕ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻀﻔﻌﻑ ﺫﻝﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻭﻤﺎ ﺸﺎﺒﻪ ﺫﻝﻙ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻨﻜﺸﺎﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻭﻁﻨﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﺱ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻤﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ ‪ %70‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ‪ ،2007‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﺠل ﺍﻝﺴﻌﻲ ﻨﺤﻭ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻱ ﺍﺯﻤﺔ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﺤﺘﺭﺍﺯﻴﺔ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺎﺱ ﻤﺩﺭﻭﺱ ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺸﺄ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻴﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺭﺸﻴﺩ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﻴﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﻝﻜﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻻ ﻭﻫﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻝﻴﺴﺕ ﺭﺃﺱ ﻤﺎل ﻓﻲ ﺤﺩ ﺫﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻻ ﺘﻭﻝﺩ ﻨﻘﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻻ ﻤﺎﻝﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺎﻨﻪ ﻴﻔﻀل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﺩ ﻻ ﻋﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻴﻀﺎ ﻴﺴﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﺼﻭل ﺒﺩﻻ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻥ‪.xv‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ‪ :‬ﺍﺜﺭ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻭﺍﻝﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻝﻼﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ‬ ‫‪4-1‬‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ‪2009 – 2000‬‬
‫ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﺜﺭ ﺍﺜﺭ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻭﺍﻝﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻝﻼﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﻓﺎﺌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻔﺘﺭﺓ ‪ 2009 – 2000‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺩﺍﻝﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺭﺒﻊ ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻜﺘﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﻱ ﺍﻝﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﻬﺎﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻝﻼﺤﺼﺎﺀ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﻻﻋﻭﺍﻡ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺘﺤﻭﻴل ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺭﺒﻊ ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭﻴل‪.xv‬‬
‫ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻌﻠﻡ ﺒﺎﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺍﻝﻲ‪Xt+1 .‬ﻭ ‪ Xt-1 ،Xt‬ﺤﻴﺙ‬
‫ﻭﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺭﺒﻊ ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﺼﻭل ﺇﻝﻰ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺫﻭ ﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻠﺤﻕ ) ‪ ،( 1‬ﻭﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﻊ ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻠﺤﻕ ) ‪ ( 2‬ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺹ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻻﺘﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪(G -T ) = α0 + α1TRO + α2 CPI +α‬‬

‫‪α3 I + Ut‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫) ‪ : (G – T‬ﻴﻤﺜل ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻭ ﻓﺎﺌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﻭﻫﻭ ﻴﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺒﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻥ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻜﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ ﺍﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻴﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﻭﻀﺢ ﺒﺎﻨﻪ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ) ‪ (G-T‬ﺍﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺼﻔﺭ ﻓﻬﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ‬
‫ﻋﺠﺯ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﺼﻐﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺼﻔﺭ ﻓﻬﻭ ﻓﺎﺌﺽ‪ .‬ﻭﻝﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻋﺠﺯ ﻓﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻤل‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺎﺱ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻭ)‪ (G – T‬ﻜﻌﺠﺯ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻱ ﺍﻨﻪ ﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﺍﻝﻌﺠﺯ‪.‬‬
‫‪ : TRO‬ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪ : CPI‬ﺍﻝﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻝﻼﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪ : I‬ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪ : Ut‬ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻝﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ : α i‬ﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪i = 0 ,1,2,3 ،‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﺤﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ) ‪ ( SPSS‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﺠل ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺼﻐﺭﻯ )‪( O L S‬‬
‫ﻭﻨﻅﺭﹰﺍ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻝﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬
‫ﺘﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺯﻤﻥ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻤﻀﻠﻠﺔ ﻻ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻋﺎل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻗـﺔ‪ .xv‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻓﺤﺹ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻝﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﻨﺠﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻜﻭﻨﻴﺔ )ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ( ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺍﻗﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﺩﻝﺔ ﻭﻨﻅﺭﹰﺍ‬
‫ﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﻭﻥ ﻓﺎﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻝﻔﺤﺹ ﺴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ )ﺘﺎﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﺎﻤل ( ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻨﺠل‬
‫ﻭﻏﺭﺍﻨﺠﺭ ﻭﻫﻭ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ )‪ ،*(CROW‬ﻭﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ )‪ ،( Test DF de Engle et Granger‬ﻭﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ) – ‪Dickey‬‬
‫‪ ( Fuller Test‬ﻷﻨﺠل ﻭﻏﺭﺍﻨﺠﺭ ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﻭل ﻫﻭ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺒﺴﺎﻁﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻝﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻭﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ‬
‫ﻀﻤﺎﻨﺔ‪.xv‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﺩﺍﺭﺴﺘﻨﺎ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺴﻨﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﻭل ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ )‪:(CROW‬‬
‫‪ : Ho‬ﻏﻴﺭ ﺴﺎﻜﻨﺔ ‪ ⇔ µ t‬ﻏﻴﺭ ﺘﺎﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﺎﻤل‪ : H1 ،‬ﺴﺎﻜﻨﺔ ‪ ⇔ µ t‬ﺘﺎﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺒﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺘﺴﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺴﻜﻭﻨﻴﺔ ‪ ، µt‬ﻭﻨﻌﺭﻑ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻝﺩﺍﺭﺒﻥ ﻭﺍﺘﺴﻭﻥ ﺘﺤﺴﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻷﺘﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪n‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫) ‪∑ ( µ j − µ j −1‬‬
‫‪j‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫= ‪dˆ = D _ W‬‬ ‫‪n‬‬ ‫‪= 0.394‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫) ‪∑ (µ j‬‬
‫‪j =1‬‬
‫ﻭﻨﻅﺭ‪‬ﺍ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺩﺍﺭﺒﻥ ﻭﺍﺘﺴﻭﻥ ﺼﻐﻴﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻘﺘﺭﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺼﻔﺭ ﻓﻬﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻡ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﻘﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪ µt‬ﻏﻴﺭ ﺴﺎﻜﻨﺔ ﺒﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺘﺎﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﺎﻤل‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺘﻡ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺒﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﻔﺭﻕ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ*‪ .‬ﻭﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺫﺍﺘﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻤﺭﺘﻴﻥ ﻭﺘﻡ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‪ ،xv‬ﻭﻨﻅﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻥ ﻤﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺒﺎﻝﺴﺎﻝﺏ ﻭﻗﺭﻴﺒﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺼﻔﺭ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺒﻘﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻓﻘﻁ‬
‫ﻴﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﺜﺭ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻭﺍﻝﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻝﻼﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻭ ﻓﺎﺌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻻﺘﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪(G – T ) = 4255.457 – 0.395 TRO + 1110.859 CPI‬‬
‫) ‪t - test ( 1.670 ) ( - 4.898 ) ( 1.409‬‬
‫) ‪P – Value (0.106 ) ( 0.000) ( 0.170‬‬
‫‪F = 13.507 P-Value = 0.000‬‬
‫‪D.W = 1.792 , R = 0.694 , R2 = 0.482 , R2 adjusted = 0.447‬‬
‫ﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﺜﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻭ ﻓﺎﺌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ F- TEST‬ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﻘﺒﻭل ﻭﺫﻭ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ‪ ،0.05‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺩﺍﺭﺒﻥ ﻭﺍﺘﺴﻭﻥ ‪ D.W = 1.792‬ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻰ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﺫﺍﺘﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻴﻀﺎ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻝﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ‪ R2 = 0.482‬ﺃﻥ ﺍ ﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺘﻔﺴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ ‪ ،%48‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺒﺎﻥ ‪ %52‬ﻴﻔﺴﺭ ﺒﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﺨﺭﻯ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺫﻜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺒﺎﻥ ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻨﻪ ﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﺩﻯ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ t - test = -4.898 , P- value = 0.000‬ﺒﺄﻥ ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺫﻭ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻱ ﺍﻨﻪ ﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺒﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺭﻴﺎل ﺍﺩﻯ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻋﺠﺯ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺒﻨﺤﻭ ‪ 0.395‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺭﻴﺎل‪ ،‬ﺍﻻ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻥ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻝﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻥ ﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﻭﻤﻥ ﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﻗﺩ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﺒﺎﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﻤﺭ ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺍﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﻭﺍﺩﻯ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻰ ‪ %50‬ﻝﻜل ﺍﻻﺒﻭﺍﺏ ﻤﺎ ﻋﺩﺍ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﻭل‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﺘﻪ ﺍﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ %75‬ﻤﻥ ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﺜﺭ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻝﻼﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺍﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﺒﺎﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺒﺎﻨﻪ ﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻝﻼﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﺩﻯ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺍﻻ ﺍﻨﻪ ﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻗﻴﻤﺔ = ‪t – test‬‬
‫‪ 1.409 , P –value =0.170‬ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻝﻴﺱ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺍﻱ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ‪.0.05‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻭ ﻓﺎﺌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻨﻪ ﻝﻴﺱ ﻝﻪ ﺍﻱ ﺍﺜﺭ‬
‫ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺍﻨﻪ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻝﺭﺠﻭﻉ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﻬﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻝﺫﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻴﺭﻴﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻥ ﻴﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻭﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻼﺩ ﻭﻝﻜﻥ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺘﺭﻴﺩ ﺍﻥ ﺘﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﻻﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺍﺜﺭﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻴﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻓﺩ ﺍﻻﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 5-1‬ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‪ :‬ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺎﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻓﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻁﺭﻕ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻫﻡ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻝﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ 1-5-1‬ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺠﺎﺕ ‪ :‬ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻫﻡ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺤﺼﻠﺕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺘﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺼﺩﻯ ﻭﺍﺜﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫‪-1‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻬﺎ ﺍﺜﺎﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻝﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﺼﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬ ‫‪-2‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺘﺄﺜﺭﺕ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺎ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﻓﺎﻥ ﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﻻﺜﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻰ‬
‫ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻝﻠﻴﻤﻥ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻨﻘﻁﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﺘﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﻁﺎﻝﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﻘﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺍﺜﺭﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺨﻠﻘﺕ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻤﻊ‬
‫ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺒﻌﺽ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺭﻓﺽ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺒﻌﺽ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﺜﺭ ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻭ ﻓﺎﺌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻝﻪ‬ ‫‪-4‬‬
‫ﺍﺜﺭ ﺫﻭ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﻝﻜﻥ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺒﺩﻭ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﻤﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻋﺎﻝﻤﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺍﺸﺎﺭﺕ‬
‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻭ ﻓﺎﺌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﻝﻴﺱ ﻝﻪ ﺍﻱ ﺩﻻﻝﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -5‬ﺍﺸﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺄﺜﺭﺕ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺒﺎﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 2-5-1‬ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‪ :‬ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻫﻡ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻝﻴﻬﺎ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬
‫ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻻﺨﺫ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻝﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﻝﻤﺎ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻬﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ ﻓﺎﻨﻪ ﺒﺎﻝﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻗﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻭﻗﺎﻨﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﻼﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻫﻲ ﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺘﻭﺼﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺨﻠﻕ ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻨﻭﻋﺔ ﻭﺸﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺤﻀﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻭ ﺍﻝﺭﻴﻔﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺘﻭﺼﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺎﻨﻪ ﻴﺠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﺴﺘﻌﺩ ﻝﻠﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻻﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺘﺤﻭﻴل ﻝﻠﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻜﺘﻨﺯﺓ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺴﻴﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻼﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻰ ﺨﻠﻕ ﻁﺭﻕ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻝﻠﺘﻤﻭﻴل‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﺘﻭﺼﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻗﻴﻭﺩ ﻤﻠﺯﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻨﺸﻁﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﺼﻭل ﻭﺍﻻﻝﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻔﻅ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﻨﺒﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﺭﻑ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -5‬ﻴﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺭﻓﻊ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻤﻭﺍﻝﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻤﻼﺌﻡ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺠل ﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﻤﺘﺎﻨﺔ ﻭﻗﻭﺓ ﻭﺴﻼﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﺘﻤﻜﻴﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﻝﻌﺏ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -6‬ﺘﻭﺼﻲ ﺍﻝﻭﺭﻗﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻥ ﺘﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻴﻀﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﺒﺎﻨﺩﻤﺎﺝ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻭ ﺍﻨﺩﻤﺎﺝ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺤﺘﻰ ﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﻨﻘﻠﺔ ﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻻﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﺩﻴﻬﺎ ﺨﺒﺭﺍﺕ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -7‬ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺴﻌﻲ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺠﺫﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻭ ﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻝﺩﻯ ﺍﺼﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻔﻭﺍﺌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﻴﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻗﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺼﻤﻭﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -8‬ﺍﻝﺴﻌﻲ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﻼﻝﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻭﺴﺭﻋﺔ ﺍﻨﺸﺄ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻝﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻻﺨﺭ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺤﺸﺩ ﻭﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺘﻭﺠﻴﻬﻬﺎ ﻝﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -9‬ﺘﻭﺼﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﺴﻐﻼل ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺒﻼﺩ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻝﻬﺎ ﻤﻴﺯﺓ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﺜل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺜﺭﻭﺓ ﺍﻝﺴﻤﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻝﻠﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺘﺨﻔﻑ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻝﺴﻌﻴﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻤﻁﻬﺭ ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ‪" ،‬ﺤﻠﻘﺔ ﻨﻘﺎﺸﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺔ" "ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ" ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪ ..‬ﺇﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪ ..‬ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﺎﻝﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺍﻝﺜﻘﺎﻓﻲ ﻝﻠﻌﺎﻡ ‪2008‬ﻡ ﻴﻨﻅﻤﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻝﻠﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ )) ﻤﻨﺎﺭﺍﺕ (( ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻌﻬﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻤﻘﺭﺍﻁﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪.2 – 1‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﻝﺭﻓﻴﻕ‪ ،‬ﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﻴﺤﻴﻰ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺭﺴﺎﻝﺔ ﻤﺎﺠﺴﺘﻴﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﻬﺩ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﻭﺙ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻘﺎﻫﺭﺓ‪ ،1993 ،‬ﺹ ‪.63 -46‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺍﻝﺭﻓﻴﻕ‪ ،‬ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﻴﺤﻴﻰ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺴﺭﻋﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺍﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺩﺍﺭﺴﺔ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻁﺭﻭﺤﺔ ﺩﻜﺘﻭﺭﺍﻩ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺴﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺩﻤﺸﻕ‪.2006 ،‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﺍﻝﺸﻭﺭﺒﺠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻤﺠﺩﻱ ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻠﺒﻨﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻰ‪1994 ،‬‬
‫‪ -5‬ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﻤﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪ ،2005- 2001‬ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻷﻭل‪،‬‬
‫ﺹ ‪.9‬‬
‫‪ -6‬ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻝﻠﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻲ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺇﺸﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺴﺘﺎﺫ ﺍﻝﺩﻜﺘﻭﺭ ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﺍﻷﻓﻨﺩﻱ‪ ،2004 ،‬ﺹ ‪.22‬‬
‫‪ -7‬ﺍﻝﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺍﻹﻨﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﻝﻸﻤﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺓ ‪ ،20/20‬ﺘﻤﺕ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻤﻊ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﻭﺒﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺍﻹﻨﻤﺎﺌﻲ ﻝﻸﻤﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ – ﺼﻨﻌﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻤﺭﺍﺠﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺩ‪ .‬ﻴﺤﻴﻰ‬
‫ﺒﻥ ﻴﺤﻴﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﻜل‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪.9‬‬
‫‪ -8‬ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻤﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺭﻴﺎﺽ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺒﻬﺎ ﻭﻨﺘﺎﺌﺠﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻠﻙ ﺴﻌﻭﺩ ﻡ ‪ ،7‬ﺍﻝﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ )‪،(2‬‬
‫‪ ،1995‬ﺹ ‪.346‬‬
‫‪ -9‬ﺍﻝﺜﻭﺭﺓ ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺤﻭﺍﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺎﺫ ﺍﺤﻤﺩ ﺤﺠﺭ ﺍﻝﺨﺒﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﻭﻜﻴل ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﻁﻴﻁ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻌﺩﺩ ‪ ،16225‬ﺤﺎﻭﺭﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺒﺸﻴﺭﻱ‪ ،،‬ﺍﻝﺜﻼﺜﺎﺀ‪ 18 ،‬ﺭﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ ‪ ،1430‬ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﻓﻕ ‪ 14‬ﺍﺒﺭﻴل ‪ ،2009‬ﺹ ‪.5-4‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻜﺎﻤل‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﺸﻴﺦ ﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﺒﻥ ﻋﺒﺩﺍﷲ‪ ،‬ﻤﺤﺎﻀﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻗﺭﺍﺀ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-10‬‬
‫ﻗﺭﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﺼﺎﻝﺢ ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﻋﺼﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻲ ﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺘﻪ ﻭﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻥ ﻭﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﺭﺒﻲ ﺍﻝﺭﺅﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﻌﺎﻁﻲ‬ ‫‪-11‬‬
‫ﻤﻌﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻝﻠﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ " ﻤﻨﺎﺭﺍﺕ " ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻌﻬﺩ ﺍﻝﻴﻤﻨﻲ ﻝﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻤﻘﺭﺍﻁﻴﺔ‪ 14 ،‬ﺍﻜﺘﻭﺒﺭ‪ ،2008 ،‬ﺹ ‪.2 -1‬‬
‫ﺠﻴﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﻴﻨﻴﻪ ﻭﻨﻴﻜﻭل ﺸﻴﻰ ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﺘﺭﺠﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻜﺘﻭﺭ ﻋﺎﻤﺭ ﻝﻁﻔﻲ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﻁﻼﺱ ﻝﻠﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺭﺠﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻨﺸﺭ‪،‬‬ ‫‪-12‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻰ‪.1996 ،‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪1- Hammed s. AL- BAZAI,"The Role of Money in Saudi Arabia , ",j.kau:Econ. & Adm. (1999).VOL.13.No.‬‬
‫‪1, pp37.‬‬
‫‪2- Franklin Allen , Douglas Gale: (1999) : BUBBLES, CRISES , AND POLICY, OXFORD REVIEW OF‬‬
‫‪ECONOMIC POLICY, VOL.15.N0.3‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻠﺤﻕ ) ‪( 1‬‬
‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻭ ﻓﺎﺌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﻭﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻭﺍﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻝﻼﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻝﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬
‫‪2009 - 2000‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻭ ﻓﺎﺌﺽ‬

‫ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻝﻼﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ‬
‫‪80010317‬‬ ‫‪104.59‬‬ ‫‪456208.0‬‬ ‫‪-97462.0‬‬ ‫‪2000‬‬
‫‪85223654‬‬ ‫‪117.05‬‬ ‫‪384104.4‬‬ ‫‪-39712.0‬‬ ‫‪2001‬‬
‫‪1.58E+08‬‬ ‫‪131.37‬‬ ‫‪394041.2‬‬ ‫‪14284.00‬‬ ‫‪2002‬‬
‫‪91750513‬‬ ‫‪145.60‬‬ ‫‪473235.9‬‬ ‫‪88872.00‬‬ ‫‪2003‬‬
‫‪2.53E+08‬‬ ‫‪131.33‬‬ ‫‪584978.4‬‬ ‫‪53213.00‬‬ ‫‪2004‬‬
‫‪1.07E+08‬‬ ‫‪145.51‬‬ ‫‪854037.6‬‬ ‫‪38.795‬‬ ‫‪2005‬‬
‫‪1.33E+08‬‬ ‫‪163.74‬‬ ‫‪1070524‬‬ ‫‪-63939.0‬‬ ‫‪2006‬‬
‫‪1.42E+08‬‬ ‫‪182.46‬‬ ‫‪1006120‬‬ ‫‪294315.0‬‬ ‫‪2007‬‬
‫‪2.95E+08‬‬ ‫‪216.02‬‬ ‫‪1371267‬‬ ‫‪167417.5‬‬ ‫‪2008‬‬
‫‪2.36E+08‬‬ ‫‪207.52‬‬ ‫‪104318.0‬‬ ‫‪197688.8‬‬ ‫‪2009‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺠﻬﺎﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻝﻼﺤﺼﺎﺀ‪ :‬ﻜﺘﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺴﻨﻭﻱ ﻻﻋﻭﺍﻡ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ .‬ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺭ‪:‬‬
‫ﺒﺎﻝﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﺭﻴﺎل‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻠﺤﻕ ) ‪( 2‬‬
‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻭ ﻓﺎﺌﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﻭﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ ﻭﺍﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻝﻼﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻝﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬
‫‪ 2009 – 2000‬ﺒﻌﺩ ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺭﺒﻊ ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻭ ﻓﺎﺌﺽ‬

‫ﺍﺠﻤﺎﻝﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻔﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻝﻼﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺴﻨﺔ‬
‫‪18195033‬‬ ‫‪28.06‬‬ ‫‪99708.06‬‬ ‫‪-15208.5‬‬ ‫‪2000:1‬‬
‫‪19552573‬‬ ‫‪28.83‬‬ ‫‪96356.30‬‬ ‫‪-11644.7‬‬ ‫‪2001:2‬‬
‫‪22141204‬‬ ‫‪29.78‬‬ ‫‪94768.23‬‬ ‫‪-8139.78‬‬ ‫‪2001:3‬‬
‫‪25505426‬‬ ‫‪30.53‬‬ ‫‪93753.17‬‬ ‫‪-4719.24‬‬ ‫‪2001:4‬‬
‫‪38227260‬‬ ‫‪31.55‬‬ ‫‪95003.54‬‬ ‫‪-2290.73‬‬ ‫‪2002:1‬‬
‫‪40560961‬‬ ‫‪32.40‬‬ ‫‪96576.36‬‬ ‫‪1400.95‬‬ ‫‪2002:2‬‬
‫‪40847501‬‬ ‫‪33.42‬‬ ‫‪99787.64‬‬ ‫‪5499.18‬‬ ‫‪2002:3‬‬
‫‪38786918‬‬ ‫‪34.18‬‬ ‫‪103229.6‬‬ ‫‪9759.30‬‬ ‫‪2002:4‬‬
‫‪20306895‬‬ ‫‪36.23‬‬ ‫‪109769.3‬‬ ‫‪19560.95‬‬ ‫‪2003:1‬‬
‫‪19676677‬‬ ‫‪36.62‬‬ ‫‪115071.2‬‬ ‫‪22471.31‬‬ ‫‪2003:2‬‬
‫‪22865394‬‬ ‫‪36.74‬‬ ‫‪121564.5‬‬ ‫‪23735.74‬‬ ‫‪2003:3‬‬
‫‪29159561‬‬ ‫‪36.18‬‬ ‫‪127513.5‬‬ ‫‪23181.22‬‬ ‫‪2003:4‬‬
‫‪60245762‬‬ ‫‪33.10‬‬ ‫‪129817.0‬‬ ‫‪17349.50‬‬ ‫‪2004:1‬‬
‫‪65434727‬‬ ‫‪32.61‬‬ ‫‪139065.2‬‬ ‫‪14829.06‬‬ ‫‪2004:2‬‬
‫‪65991903‬‬ ‫‪32.74‬‬ ‫‪151733.8‬‬ ‫‪12051.81‬‬ ‫‪2004:3‬‬
‫‪61546201‬‬ ‫‪33.05‬‬ ‫‪165324.1‬‬ ‫‪9000.19‬‬ ‫‪2004:4‬‬
‫‪33656172‬‬ ‫‪34.94‬‬ ‫‪190620.4‬‬ ‫‪5407.68‬‬ ‫‪2005:1‬‬
‫‪27160013‬‬ ‫‪35.84‬‬ ‫‪206333.6‬‬ ‫‪1914.32‬‬ ‫‪2005:2‬‬
‫‪23517016‬‬ ‫‪37.00‬‬ ‫‪222470.4‬‬ ‫‪-1804.22‬‬ ‫‪2005:3‬‬
‫‪22333894‬‬ ‫‪37.93‬‬ ‫‪235858.5‬‬ ‫‪-5575.32‬‬ ‫‪2005:4‬‬
‫‪31405824‬‬ ‫‪39.26‬‬ ‫‪258660.3‬‬ ‫‪-26502.4‬‬ ‫‪2006:1‬‬
‫‪32734882‬‬ ‫‪40.35‬‬ ‫‪267449.9‬‬ ‫‪-23882.9‬‬ ‫‪2006:2‬‬
‫‪33975108‬‬ ‫‪41.67‬‬ ‫‪273108.0‬‬ ‫‪-14420.6‬‬ ‫‪2006:3‬‬
‫‪34699041‬‬ ‫‪42.67‬‬ ‫‪272564.8‬‬ ‫‪1110.70‬‬ ‫‪2006:4‬‬
‫‪29081669‬‬ ‫‪43.34‬‬ ‫‪241121.6‬‬ ‫‪59039.58‬‬ ‫‪2007:1‬‬
‫‪31867600‬‬ ‫‪44.68‬‬ ‫‪243474.0‬‬ ‫‪73755.26‬‬ ‫‪2007:2‬‬
‫‪37208747‬‬ ‫‪46.51‬‬ ‫‪254106.3‬‬ ‫‪81135.83‬‬ ‫‪2007:3‬‬
‫‪44261548‬‬ ‫‪48.18‬‬ ‫‪268984.3‬‬ ‫‪80632.12‬‬ ‫‪2007:4‬‬
‫‪67804754‬‬ ‫‪52.57‬‬ ‫‪372786.5‬‬ ‫‪47667.24‬‬ ‫‪2008:1‬‬
‫‪73955364‬‬ ‫‪53.94‬‬ ‫‪369662.4‬‬ ‫‪42135.87‬‬ ‫‪2008:2‬‬
‫‪77101916‬‬ ‫‪54.91‬‬ ‫‪341574.9‬‬ ‫‪39294.23‬‬ ‫‪2008:3‬‬
‫‪76509842‬‬ ‫‪54.85‬‬ ‫‪287790.1‬‬ ‫‪38553.29‬‬ ‫‪2008:4‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺩﺭ‪ :‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻭﻴل ﻝﺘﻘﺴﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻰ ﺭﺒﻊ ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

كتاب الملتقى الدولي الرابع -الأزمة العالمية وتداعياتها على دول المينا

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كتاب الملتقى الدولي الرابع -الأزمة العالمية وتداعياتها على دول المينا

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‫ﻜﺘﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﻠﺘﻘﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭﻝﻲ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺒﻊ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻭل ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻓﺭﻴﻘﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺍﻝﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻤﻘﺭﺍﻁﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﻌﺒﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﻠﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻲ ﻭﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻝﻌﻠﻤﻲ‬

‫ﺠﺎﻤــﻌـﺔ ﺩﺍﻝﻲ ﺍﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ )ﺍﻝﺠﺯﺍﺌﺭ(‬

‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﻡ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﺴﻴﻴﺭ‬

‫ﻛﺘﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻠﺘﻘﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ‬

‫"ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﻫﻨﺔ ﻭﺍ‪‬ﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎ‪‬ﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬

‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ ﻭﴰﺎﻝ ﺇﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ"‬

‫‪ - 4‬ا‪ #‬اق ا ﺏ @ ا?‪9‬ت ا

‫‪ - 8‬اﻥ‪ /‬ت ا‪#‬زﻡ ا ا اه

‫‪ - 9‬ﺕ)‪ ,‬ت ا‪#‬زﻡ ا ا وأﺙ ه ‪ *+,‬اد ا 

‫ﻫل "ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ" ﻫﻲ ﺴﺒﺏ‬

‫ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ؟‬

‫ﻤﺠﻴﻁﻨﻪ*‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﻤﺴﻌﻭﺩ‬

‫‪ I‬ـ ﻤﻘﺘﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻝﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻋﺭﻓﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ـ ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ‬

‫‪dérégulation financiére‬‬ ‫ـ ﺇﻝﻐﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ‬

‫ـ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻤﻭﻝﺔ ﻝﺘﺒﻠﻎ ﺤﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺫﺍﺘﻴﺔ‬

‫‪ II‬ـ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻻﺒﺘﻜﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻜﺭﻴﺱ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل‬

‫ـ ﺇﺼﻼﺡ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺎﻋﺩ‬

‫ـ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ‬

‫ـ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬

‫‪ III‬ـ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬

‫‪ IV‬ـ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﻜﺭﻴﺱ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﺨﻭل‬

‫‪ 1‬ـ ﺍﻝﺨﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ‪les options‬‬

‫‪les swaps‬‬ ‫‪ 2‬ـ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ‬

‫‪ 3‬ـ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪swaps de garantie de crédit‬‬ ‫‪ 4‬ـ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻻﺕ ﻀﻤﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬

‫ـ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺭﻴﻕ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻝﻨﻘل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ‬

‫ـ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺃﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻓﺼل ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‬

‫‪conflits d’intérêt‬‬ ‫‪V‬ـ ﻨﺯﺍﻉ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺎﻝﺢ‬

2008 ‫ﻤﻼﻤﺢ ﻭﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ‬

‫ﻭﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬

.(\]^_`a) ،O‫ﺡ‬QLRST‫س ا‬WXT‫ ا‬OYJHZ ،FGHIJ ‫ذ‬HLM‫* أ‬

‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻷﻭل‪ :‬ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ‪Global Financial Crisis 2008‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪:2008‬‬

‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﻤﻼﻤﺢ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ ﻝﻸﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ‪:2008‬‬

‫• ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﻭﺴﻌﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫• ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺇﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺴﻬﻠﺔ ‪:Easy Credit‬‬

‫• ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺭﺩﻴﺌﺔ ‪) Bad Loans‬ﺨﺼﻭﺼﺎ ﻗﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻝﺭﻫﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ(‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Turbide, Laurin, Lapierre, and Morissette,2008‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻭﻜﺎﻻﺕ‬

‫• ﺘﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪:‬‬

‫• ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ‪:‬‬

‫• ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺒﻁﺎﻝﺔ ﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺓ‪:‬‬

‫• ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺠﻭﻫﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‪ (Turbide, Laurin, Lapierre, and Morissette (2008‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﻋﺒﺔ‬

‫• ﺸﺒﺢ ﻜﺴﺎﺩ ﻋﻅﻴﻡ‪:‬‬

‫• ﺇﻝﺤﺎﻕ ﺍﻝﻀﺭﺭ ﺒﺎﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪:‬‬

‫• ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫• ﺍﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻬﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻋﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻲ ‪:Financial Panic‬‬

‫• ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﻭﻗﻑ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ‪:‬‬

‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ )‪ (Nan-Kuang and Wang,2008‬ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﺘﺠﻬﺕ ‪-‬ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩ‬

‫ﺜﺎﻝﺜﺎ‪ :‬ﺃﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ‪Causes of Global Financial Crisis‬‬

‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﺍﻝﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫• ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﺴﺏ ﻝﻠﻤﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ‪ :‬ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬

‫‪Reflections og Global Financial Crisis on Developing Countries‬‬

‫ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‪.‬‬

‫ﺜﺎﻝﺜﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺄﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ ﻝﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺎﻭﺭ‪:‬‬

‫• ﻴﺅﻜﺩ )‪ (Turbide, Laurin, Lapierre, and Morissette,2008‬ﻭ)‪ (Harsch, 2009‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ‬

‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺼﺩﻴﺭ‪:‬‬

‫‪ - 4‬ا‪ #‬اق ا ﺏ @ ا?‪9‬ت ا

‫‪ - 8‬اﻥ‪ /‬ت ا‪#‬زﻡ ا ااه

‫‪ - 9‬ﺕ)‪ ,‬ت ا‪#‬زﻡ ا ا وأﺙه ‪ *+,‬اد ا