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SINERGI DAN KETERPADUAN
PEMBANGUNAN KAWASAN
JABODETABEKPUNJUR
Ernan Rustiadi
P4W IPB
Background
Three Global major problems (Beatley, 2000):
(1) the increase in food demand
(2) population growth and
(3) environmental degradation
Cities and urban areas are viewed as one trigger
of the problems (OECD, 2010).
concentric shape
polycentric shape
leapfroging
sprawl
conurbation along transportation corridors.
Global Urbanizaton
More than half of the worlds population now
lives in urban.
The United Nations (UN) expected that by
2050 about 66% of the worlds population will
live in cities (UN 2014).
Rapid urbanization in Asian developing
countries have been followed by excessive of
the urban population concentration in very
large urban agglomerations (megacities).
List of 18 megacities
Megacities Issues
Urban sprawl
Environmental Impact
Food Security
Impact of High Consumption
Increase of Disaster Risk and Hazard
Governance
Jakarta Megacity
(Greater Jakarta = Jabodetabek)
Largest megacity in South East Asia
seems to be underestimated, either by global
institutions (eg. UN) as well as by Indonesia
institutions
UN (2014): Jakarta Megacitys population =
10.2 million
RIHN (2014): Jakarta megacity as 2nd largest
megacity in the world with 27 millions
inhabitatns in 2010
30,000,000
Jakarta
Botabek
25,000,000
Jabodetabek
Population (person)
Jabotabek
20,000,000
Bodetabek
15,000,000
10,000,000
Jakarta City
5,000,000
-
1961
1971
1981
1991
2000
2010
POPULATION
1961
1971
1981
1991
2000
2010
Jakarta
2.906.533
4.576.009
6.555.954
7.108.359
8.385.639
8.502.818
Botabek
3.011.455
3.762.068
5.543.986
9.425.983A slowdown
12.814.688
due
18.253.144
Jabotabek
5.917.988
8.338.077
12.099.940
Indonesia
16.534.342
1971-1981
1981-1991
43,27
The peak of
47,37
suburbanization
40,89
growth45,12
rate
(Bodetabek)
22,79
26,93
Jabotabek
Indonesia
1991-2000
8,43
17,97
70,02
A slowdown due
Asian Economic
36,65
crisis since 1997
20,90
80.00
Jakarta
70.00
Botabek
28,22
? 26,21
11,21
16,80
Indonesia
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
1961-1971
1971-1981
1981-1991
1991-2000
1,40
35,95
42,44
Re-suburbanization
Jabotabek
60.00
2000-2010
2000-2010
Jakarta (I)
Botabek (II)
Percentage (%)
10.00
Jabotabek (I+II)
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
1961
1971
1981
1991
2000
2004
2008
2010
Year
A slowdown due
Asian Economic crisis
in 1997
Kondisi
Eksisiting
(Nilai Riil PDRB
(Xi,l) )
Otokorelasi
Spasial Lokal
Model GWR
(Koefisien i,l )
Perluasan interaksi spasial ekonomi
Pulau Jawa yang ditunjukkan dari nilai
koefisiennya justru di luar wilayahwilayah yang secara aktual merupakan
basis industri. Sektor ini menunjukkkan
kekuatan yang cukup signifikan di
bagian tengah/sebagian besar Jateng
hingga ke DIY terhadap pertumbuhan
total PDRB baik terhadap wilayahnya
sendiri maupun terhadap total PDRB
Pulau Jawa
Peran PDRB sektor Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran terhadap pembentukan Total PDRB
Kondisi Eksisiting
(Nilai Riil PDRB (Xi,l) )
Otokorelasi
Spasial Lokal
(Kekuatan keterkaitan
(Ii,l ) )
Perluasan sektor
perdagangan, hotel dan
restauran di wilayah
sekitar JabodetabekBandung, bagian barat
Jawa Tengah, dan
beberapa wilayah di
bagian barat dan selatan
Jawa Timur
Model
GWR
(Koefisien
i,l )
Area (Hectare)
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Built Up
Paddy Field
Water Body
Forest
2005
2010
2015
The fastest expansion of physical urban space was in the period of 1992-2000,
the
Tahunin
1983
Tahun 1992
late period before the monetary crisis (before 1997).
Terbangun
Ruang
Proporsi
ratio
Urban land
Tahun 2000
Tahun 2005
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
1972
1983
10
1992
20
2000
x1 30
2005
40 x2
(Km )
2010
50
x3
60
Jabodetabeks
Land Use Change Scenarios
using
Land Transformation Model (LTM)
1972-2030
hidden
output
Network
File
Estimate error from
observed data seet
Assign weight to
estimate output
Illustration of how the neural nets were used with the driving variabel
2025
2030
2025
2030
2025
2030
Scenario 1. Population
growth follows the target
of economic growth 5 %
per year until year 2025
and 2030
Scenario 2. Population
growth follows the target
of economic growth 6%
per year until year 2025
and 2030
Private-manufacturing sectors
Industrial land development in suburban
China is often planned and carried out by
national state, rather than municipal or local
government (Wu and Phelps, 2008).
Start by government-supported industrial
parks and followed by private industrial parks
(Hudalah et al 2013).
Transportation corridor:
Highway roads
Establishment of highways affect urban form
by causing the population to spread out along
the highways
3 major highways: (1) The first highway is
Jagorawi (Jakarta-Bogor-Ciawi) Toll Road (to
the southern suburbs), (2) Jakarta-Cikampek
Toll Road (heading to Bandung, central and
eastern Java) and (3) Jakarta-Merak Toll Road
Urban Expansion in
Jakarta Bandung Mega Urban
Region (JBMUR)
Situation Map
Bandung
Metropolitan Area
POPULATION DENSITY
JAKARTA-BANDUNG MEGA URBAN REGION (JBMUR):
Population : 40.7 million (2010)
Area
: 18,411 km2
Pop. Density : 2,211 person/km2
Population density (person/km2)
JAKARTA
BANDUNG
JAVA ISLAND
URBAN-RURAL STATUS
Jakarta-Bandung Region (JBR) =
Greater Jakarta (Jabodetabek) + Bandung Metropolitan + Cianjur Regency +
Karawang Regency + Purwakarta Regency
Urban area
Rural area
JAKARTA
Study area
BANDUNG
JAVA ISLAND
CONURBATIONS
CONCEPT
Dadj=Dmax-Dorg (west)
2 Dadj=Dmax+Dorg
3 Dadj=Dmax+130+Dorg (east)
1
0.8
0.9
0.7
ULR_78
ULR_83
ULR_97
ULR_00
ULR_05
Urban Land
Ratio
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
50
Jakarta
100
150
200
Bandung
250
Dadj=Dmax-Dorg (west)
2 Dadj=Dmax+Dorg
3 Dadj=Dmax+130+Dorg (east)
Western side of
Jakarta
Eastern side
of Bandung
Jakarta
Bandung
Impacts of Jakarta-Bandung
Conurbation
(1) land use-cover changes: rice field conversion
(2) Local and Global Environmental Impact
(3) raise disaster hazard
(4) changes in resources consuming pattern.
Toward Sustainable
Mega Urban Region
(Rustiadi et al., 2014)
The fastest expansion of physical urban space was in the period of 1992-2000,
the
Tahunin
1983
Tahun 1992
late period before the monetary crisis (before 1997).
Terbangun
Ruang
Proporsi
ratio
Urban land
Tahun 2000
Tahun 2005
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
1972
1983
10
1992
20
2000
x1 30
2005
40 x2
(Km )
2010
50
x3
60
Rasio urban
0.8
y 2000 = 0.192Ln(x) - 1.242
R2 = 0.62
0.6
1992
0.4
0.2
0
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2000
70000
80000
90000 100000
Number of Desa/Villages
floods
landslides
Years
Numbers of Village
Persentage (%)
2000
26
1.53
2003
95
5.59
2006
134
7.88
2008
305
17.94
2011
170
11.37
644
609
332
305
338
170
134
95
102
Landslides
26
2000
2003
2006
2008
2011
Percentage of Desa/Villages
floods
landslides
37.88%
35.82%
Floods
Years
Numbers of Village
Persentage (%)
2000
102
6.00
2003
609
35.82
2006
332
19.53
2008
644
37.88
2011
338
22.61
22.61%
19.53%
17.94%
11.37%
7.88%
6.00%
5.59%
1.53%
2000
2003
2006
2008
2011
Number of Desa/Villages
floods
Landslides
landslides
Years
Numbers of Village
Persentage (%)
2000
26
1.53
2003
95
5.59
2006
134
7.88
2008
305
17.94
2011
170
11.37
644
609
332
338
170
134
95
102
305
26
2000
2003
2006
2008
2011
Percentage of Desa/Villages
floods
landslides
37.88%
35.82%
Floods
Years
Numbers of Village
Persentage (%)
2000
102
6.00
2003
609
35.82
2006
332
19.53
2008
644
37.88
2011
338
22.61
22.61%
19.53%
17.94%
11.37%
7.88%
6.00%
5.59%
1.53%
2000
2003
2006
2008
2011
Rainy Season
(maximum
discharge)
Katulampa
Flood Control Station
(Bogor)
Flood Status:
- Siaga 1 (High)
- Siaga 2 (moderate)
- Siaga 3 (low)
Dry Season
(minimum discharge)
24 jan & 28
Feb 92
9-14 jan 97
3 Des 92
21 Des 91
26-28 Jan
99
8 Jan 94
10 Jan 93
23 Jan
90
1-2
Feb 07
12 , 17 Jan &
12 Feb 04
12 Mei 98
25 & 26
Mar 95
21 & 23 Jsn
05
6 Feb 01
17 Jan
06
30 Jan 2002
3 Feb 2007
3 Jan 1996
21 Jan
1994
6 Jan 1996
18 Jan
2005
21 Feb 2002
Mm/day
Rainy Season
Dry Season
Changes
Period of 1990-2000
Difference = mu (C1) - mu (C2)
Estimate for difference: 0.167500
95% CI for difference: (-4.496515, 4.831515)
T-Test of difference = 0 (vs not =): T-Value = 0.07 P-Value =
0.941 DF = 21
T-test for Independent Samples (Spreadsheet1) Note:
Variables were treated as independent samples
Var1 vs.
Var2
Mean Group 1
Mean Group 2
9.880.155
9.712.574 0.074727
t-value
df
p
22 0.941107
Period of 2000-2011
Valid N Group 2
12
5.606.942
1.087.348 0.892032
Production Forest
Agriculture
Built Up Areas
Conservation Zone
Built Up Areas
Consistent
574.355,3 Ha
89,79%
Inconsistent
65286,0 Ha
10,21%
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN
LAND COVER AND SPATIAL
PLAN IN
2010
PADDY FIELD
CONSERVATION FOREST
PROTECTEION FOREST
ZONA B4; PRODUCTION FOREST
ZONA B7; PRODUCTION FOREST
MAJOR SPATIAL
INCONCISTENCIES
IN JABODETABEK REGION (2010):
Production Forest
Inconsistency Spa
1990
2001
Upland
Shrub
Rainfed Ricefield
Irrigated ricefield
Idle Land/grass
Consistency (%)
Settlemen
tPlantation
Forest
Inconsistency (%)
Water Body
Upland
Shrub
Rainfed Ricefield
Irrigated ricefield
Idle Land/grass
Settlemen
tPlantation
Forest
Consistency (%)
Inconsistency (%)
Water Body
b) Land use/cover inconsistency to land capacity (%)
Permasalahan
Permasalahan
Permukiman
Permukiman
VS
Status Kawasan
Hutan
(BPLAN Kemenhut 2012)
VS
Penggunaan
Lahan
(Ikonos, 2012)
Concluding Remarks
During the last two decades, the intensity of anthropogenic
disasters in Jabodetabek has increased due to declining
environmental carrying capacity
The decrease in carrying capacity associated with land Use/Cover
Change (LUCC) due to rapid urbanization pressure, especially due to
the decrease of greenery area
LUCC in jabodetabek tends to be inconsistent with spatial plan and
the carrying capacity
Concluding Remarks
Regional Planning system should be supported by strong and
effective Controlling system.
Lingkungan
Indikasi terlampauinya daya dukung lingkungan
Ekonomi
Daya saing Jabodetabek perekonomian nasional
Sosial-Kelembagaan:
1) Lemahnya koordinasi lintas sektoral nasional
2) Lemahnya koordinasi pembangunan lintas
wilayah administrasi (BKSP??)
Urban sprawl
Environmental Impact
Food Security
Impact of High Consumption
Increase of Disaster Risk and Hazard
Governance
Thank you..
Thank You
Sumber:Tjuk 2006
PUNCAK