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Paleo Earth-systems modelling a new approach to managing
exploration risk
Rob Crossley, Jim Harris, Nick Stronach, Tim Hudson, FR-GTS Project
Team, Paul Valdes and Roger Proctor Fugro Robertson Ltd, University of Bristol,
NERC Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, University of Liverpool, UK.

Description and application of work

Management of geologic risk when exploring undrilled sequences requires that predictions be made
about the presence of potential source rocks. The predictive methodology described here reconstructs
the depositional settings for targeted geological time slices and predictively models the processes that
control the deposition of source facies, with a level of accuracy that is useful to the explorationist.
Even in moderately well-explored basins, source facies are rarely encountered since drilling tends to
target structural highs, whereas the source facies tend to occur in structural lows so source facies
distributions often remain a major uncertainty which this work addresses.
This approach utilises high-resolution plate-tectonic modelling (Figure 1), palaeoenvironmental
analysis and palaeogeographic mapping. The resulting digital palaeogeographic maps of land
elevation, river drainage and ocean bathymetry provide the framework on which state-of-the-art
climate and oceanographic models are run, after applying appropriate adjustments for past
atmospheric gas compositions and astronomical orbital parameters. The Hadley Centre HadCM3 fully
coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model is run at Bristol University and the tide/wave models are run
at Liverpool University. The outputs are then used in predictive sedimentological modelling using GIS,
run in-house at FRL.

Figure 1 FRL high resolution plate model centred on SE Asia

The terrestrial components of the HadCM3 Earth-system model include air temperatures, wind
directions and velocities, rainfall amounts and intensities, soil hydrologic responses and run-off,
evaporation and vegetation. The atmosphere interacts dynamically with the vegetation and grows

plants (meaning plant functional types) in response to modelled climate, and the climate in turn
responds to the changes implicit in the transpiration and albedo characteristics of the new plants.
Over oceans, lakes, sea ice and ice caps, the atmosphere responds to the albedo, temperature and
evaporation/sublimation responses of these water/ice masses. The atmosphere also interacts
dynamically with the oceans, creating surface wind-driven currents and deep oceanic density current
circulations.

Figure 2 Components of the HadCM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model

Each palaeo Earth-system model is run for approximately 150 model years and takes 2-3 months to
run on a super-computer, before dynamic stabilities in relation to vegetation and oceanic circulation
feedbacks, are achieved. Monthly parameters from a 20-year sample of many decades of daily results
are used in the predictive methodology.

Observations and analysis

Climate and oceanographic predictions have been compared with geological observations (eg.
evaporites, coals, glacial deposits, palaeowind directions from aeolian cross-beds, reefs, isotopebased ocean water temperature estimates) for 6 time slices. The good fit between predictions and
geological data for the Recent (Figure 3), Tertiary, Cretaceous (Figure 5), Jurassic and Triassic
enhances confidence in the overall methodology.
Global tidal modelling was undertaken for the present day, to validate the methodology (Figure 4) and
was then applied to the bathymetric component of the six palaeogeographies. In addition to
successfully predicting tidal range, the method also predicts the magnitude and direction of tidal bed
stress, which is an important component of the source facies prediction methodology.
Source facies predictions were compared with good quality source rock data and at the basin scale
successfully account for over 80% of the source rock occurrences for the time-slices analysed. The
predictions include original source rock richness and kerogen type, and although there are differences
in detail, the exploration value of the method is clear.

Figure 3 Climate model results for the Recent and distribution of Recent evaporites (red triangles).

Figure 4 Present-day tidal range model results

Figure 5 Late Cretaceous palaeogeography (back globes) and prediction of sea-surface temperatures
(front globe)

Conclusions and recommendations

The plate tectonic model shows that, through the Mesozoic and Tertiary, India has crossed more
climatic and oceanographic zones than any other area on Earth. It has also suffered major drainage
reorganisations as a consequence of Gondwana break-up and subsequent Himalayan collision. It is
therefore particularly important that these changes in the palaeogeographic setting of India are
accurately mapped before undertaking detailed predictive modelling. This would require our globalscale inputs, together with more specific palaeogeographic data from the Indian subcontinent.

Significance and usefulness of work

Alongside source facies prediction, we are applying Palaeo Earth-system modelling successfully to
prediction of other components of the petroleum system including reservoir and seal distributions. It is
evident that this approach is vital to properly assessing geologic risk in frontier basins.
In addition, in those Indian basins which are incompletely explored or are poorly understood, the
method may assist identification of unrecognised petroleum exploration opportunities.