NGUYN KHNH DUY

Ging vin Khoa Kinh t Pht Trin

Trng H Kinh t TPHCM

BI GING
(Bn tho ln 1)

THC HNH M HNH CU TRC TUYN TNH (SEM)

VI PHN MM AMOS
Chi-square= 1595.832

e28

gts1

e29

gts2

e30

gts3

e31

gts4

e32

gts5

e33

gts6

.40
e24

lrs1

e25

lrs2

e26

lrs3

e27

lrs4

e37

gss7

e38

e10

lcs1

e11

lcs2

e12

lcs3

.77
.79
.77
.76
.63

.20
.79

.50

.15

.86

cfls

cos1
cos2

e18

cos3

lcs5

.24

.69

lcs

.50

.59

.79

.79

oss

.46

.76
.72
.77

cos5

.80
.81
cos6
.83

.38

cs

-.11

aws1

.90
.92

z3.81
.95
.95

ls
.88
.87
.65

cos7

e34

e8

gqs4

e7

gqs3

e6
e5
e4

gss4

e3

gss2

e2

gss1

e1

.41

oss3

e41

oss2

40

oss1

e39

ls1

e42

ls2

e43

ls3

e44

.84
.21

.74

cos4

cos8

gqs5

z2

.77

e23

e9

.34

.73

.54

.69
.82
.67

e17

.32

.69

.88

gqs6

.73
.74 gss6
.76
.79 gss5
.80

gs_gqs

lrs

.78

e16

e22

.66

.66
.75

cgss4

e21

.72
.80
.82
.75

z1

.67

e15

e20

.54
.65

e14

e19

gts

.72

.63
.71
.67
cgss1

e13

.36

gss8

df= 1007
P-value= .000
Chi-square/df= 1.585
TLI= .915
CFI= .921
IFI=.922
RMSEA= .053

ls4

e45

ls5

e46

ls6

e47

.60

.46
.71

e35

.69
aws2
.78

e36

aws3

Thng 5/2009
TRNG I HC KINH T TP.HCM
(Lu hnh ni b)
aws

LI NI U
M hnh cu trc tuyn tnh (SEM) c cc nh nghin cu trn th gii s dng t
rt lu. Vit Nam, khong t nm 2000 tr li y, SEM c nhiu nh nghin cu s
dng trong cc cng trnh nghin cu hn lm, cng nh cc nghin cu ng dng phc v
cc chng trnh t vn doanh nghip, t vn chnh sch cho cc Tnh/thnh ph.
Gn y, vic hc tp / p dng m hnh cu trc tuyn tnh (SEM) ni ring cng
nh cc k thut phn tch nh lng ni chung trong kinh t, qun tr kinh doanh, ti chnhngn hng c ng o bn tr gm sinh vin i hc, hc vin cao hc, nghin cu
sinh quan tm gii quyt tt nht nhng mc tiu nghin cu t ra.
Bi ging ny nhm h tr cc bn bc u tip cn SEM di gc thc hnh vi
phn mm AMOS c d dng hn, nhanh chng hn m trc mt l lm ti liu hc tp
mang tnh trc quan phc v cho chng trnh bi dng c nhn ti nng do on Khoa
Kinh t pht trin Trng H Kinh t TPHCM t chc (ch ny hc trong 2 bui), hay
cc kho o to ngn hn ti Trung tm T vn doanh nghip v Pht trin kinh t vng v
Phn tch d liu v d bo trong kinh doanh. Bn cnh , trong qu trnh hc tp, cc bn
sinh vin/ hc vin s c pht cc ti liu c v mt l thuyt SEM, cc bi bo khoa hc,
cng trnh nghin cu c p dng SEM bng ting Anh/ ting Vit khc
Do SEM kh phc tp di gc ton hc v trnh ca tc gi cn hn ch nn
nhng sai st trong qu trnh bin son l kh c th trnh khi. Tc gi rt mong nhn c
s ng gp kin, ph bnh ca bn c quyn bi ging ny trong ln ti bn tip theo
s c hon thin hn, mang li nhiu li ch hn cho bn c xa gn. Th gp xin gi v:
Nguyn Khnh Duy
Khoa Kinh t Pht trin Trng H Kinh t TPHCM
a ch: 1A Hong Diu Qun Ph Nhun - TPHCM
Email: khanhduy@ueh.edu.vn hoc nkduy2002@yahoo.com
in thoi: 098.900.1766
Mong rng bn c s tip tc n nhn nhng quyn sch tt hn lin quan n ch
kinh t lng, phn tch d liu & d bo nng cao do cc ng nghip & ti bin son
(c xut bn chnh thc) trong tng lai.
Xin chn thnh cm n v chc cc bn thnh cng!
TP.H Ch Minh, thng 5 nm 2009
Tc gi
Nguyn Khnh Duy

LI CM N
Ti liu hc tp ny khng s v cht ch nh nhng quyn sch khc, bi n c
vit di gc trc quan, ng dng N c hon thnh trong thi gian rt ngn nhm
phc v trc mt cho chng trnh bi dng c nhn ti nng do on Khoa Kinh t Pht
Trin t chc, cng nh cc kho hc ngn hn v Phn tch d liu v d bo trong kinh
doanh. Tuy vy, quyn bi ging ny cng l mt kt qu ca s tch lu lu di t trong qu
trnh hc tp, ging dy, cng vic, nghin cu t trc ti nay. V qu trnh y, tc gi
c s h tr tn tnh ca qu thy c gio, bn b, cc em sinh vin, v nhng ngi thn
trong gia nh.
Nm 2004, khi AMOS, ti liu v SEM cn rt him; c Trn Kim Dung, thy inh
Thi Hong (Khoa QTKD, Khoa Ton-Thng K-H Kinh t TPHCM) gii thiu, khuyn
khch, ng vin ti trong qu trnh tm hiu v SEM, v gi tng ti nhng ti liu, phn
mm c lin quan. Nh s gip ca qu thy c m vic tm hiu v SEM ca ti nhng
thi gian u rt thun li. Ti xin c gi li cm n n Thy Nguyn Hu Lam; thy
nhit tnh hng dn lun vn tt nghip bc thc s nghin cu u tin m ti s dng
SEM (nm 2006). Trong mn phng php nghin cu, Thy L Nguyn Hu vi cu ni
SEM tht n gin!, SEM d hn m hnh hi quy nhiu! khuyn khch nhiu hc
vin chng ti tm ti v n. Ti chn thnh cm n thy Nguyn nh Th v nhng gi m,
nhng hng dn tn tnh ca thy dnh cho chng ti. Nhng nghin cu ca thy l
nhng ti liu rt qu cho nhng ngi lm Marketing hay bt c ai ang lm nghin cu
ngnh qun tr kinh doanh, v nhng ai tm hiu v SEM... Thi gian hc tp bc i hc,
sau i hc c bit bao k nim vi bn b, v s tri n ca hc vin chng ti vi tt c qu
thy c tham gia ging dy.
Ti mun c gi li cm n ca mnh n thy Hong Trng v nhng quyn sch
v phn tch d liu bng SPSS m thy tham gia bin son (t 1997 n nay). N l
nhng ti liu tht qu gi i vi ti cng nh nhng bn am m, hay mun tm hiu v
phn tch d liu trong nghin cu; tht khng ng quyn sch u tin ca thy (vit cng
vi thy V Vn Huy, c V Th Lan) m ti ngu nhin tm c nh sch khi mi bc
chn vo ging ng i hc hng ti n vic lm nhiu nghin cu khoa hc vi
phng php nh lng khi cn l sinh vin.
Ti xin c chn thnh cm n thy Nguyn Trng Hoi, Thy Cao Ho Thi to
iu kin h tr, ng vin, hng dn ti trong cng vic ging dy v phn tch nh lng
t nhng ngy u ma thu nm 2007 chng trnh ging dy Kinh t Fulbright.
Xin gi n Thu Hng li cm n chn thnh v rt nhiu iu, bn ng hnh,
chia s, h tr ti trong sut thi gian hc tp/ nghin cu bc i hc, sau i hc
Xin cm n nhng bn ng nghip: anh Quc Duy, anh Thanh Bnh, anh Thanh V
v nhng ngi bn khc lun h tr, ng vin, trao i, chia s nhng kin thc, kinh
nghim v phn tch d liu, cng nh h tr ti trong cng vic, trong nghin cu.
Quyn bi ging ny vit ra ch yu dnh cho cc bn sinh vin i hc khi kinh t qun tr. Cng nh s ham hc tp, s kht khao khm ph v nhng tnh cm tt p m cc
bn sinh vin i hc (m ti c dp gp g Trng H Kinh t TPHCM, Trng H
Ngoi Thng (CS2), Trng H Ngn Hng TPHCM, chng trnh o to c bit ca
Trng H M TPHCM) dnh cho ti trong thi gian qua gip ti lun c nhng nim
vui trong cng vic, v nghin cu. Xin chn thnh cm n cc bn!

Bi ging ny cng hng n nhiu i tng bn c khc, c bit hng n cc

bn sinh vin Khoa Kinh t pht trin ang tham d lp bi dng c nhn ti nng do on
Khoa t chc. Lp hc ny kh c th thnh cng nu khng c s h tr, to iu kin
ca rt nhiu thy c gio, ca cc bn trong ban t chc, cc anh ch em phng qun tr thit
b, t chc hnh chnh, phng cng ngh thng tin, phng iu phi ging ng thi kho
biu, chi on, chi hi, ban cn s cc lp v s n lc ca tng bn sinh vin.
Cc v d trong quyn bi ging ny; cc bi tp/ tnh hung km theo v cc quyn
sch trong tng lai s c nhng cht liu, ngun d liu t cc nghin cu khng ch ca ti,
m cn ca cc bn b, ca cc bn sinh vin, cng nh rt nhiu tc gi khc. Xin chn
thnh cm n bn Nguyn Th M Thun, bn Mai Thu Ninh, anh V c Th, anh L Vn
Khoa v nhng d liu m cc bn, cc anh kho st rt cng phu. Xin cm n cc tc
gi ca cc quyn sch, tp ch, bi vit m ti tham kho; v s am m v nghin cu
nghim tc ca h gip ti hiu r hn v nhanh hn nhng vn cha bit. Xin cm n
anh Phm c K v thy Bi Nguyn Hng Khoa Qun l cng nghip H Bch Khoa
TPHCM v cc bi vit m quyn bi ging ny gii thiu trong ph lc cc bn sinh
vin tham kho thm.
Cui cng, ti khng qun gi li cm n chn thnh n b, m, em Khnh Hng v
nhng ngi thn v tt c!
Nguyn Khnh Duy

MC LC

Li ni u
Li cm n
Mc lc
Trang
1. Trao i vi cc bn sinh vin lp bi dng c nhn ti nng &
gii thiu m hnh cu trc tuyn tnh (SEM), phn mm AMOS......................................6
2. Phn tch nhn t khm ph (EFA_ Exploratory Factor Analysis) ..............................14
3. Phn tch nhn t khng nh (CFA_Confirmatory Factor Analysis) ..........................20
4. M hnh cu trc (SEM_Structural Equation Modeling) .............................................48
5. Kim nh Bootstrap .....................................................................................................54
6. Phn tch cu trc a nhm ...........................................................................................57
Li kt
Ti liu tham kho
Ph lc

1. TRAO I VI CC BN SINH VIN LP BI DNG C NHN TI NNG

& GII THIU V SEM, PHN MM AMOS
T u hc k n nay, lp chng ta hc v cc ch T duy sng to (Thy
Nguyn Hong Bo, trong 3 bui), phng php nghin cu nng cao i su vo khung
phn tch v nghin cu nh tnh (Thy Trn Tin Khai, trong 2 bui), M hnh Logit
(Thy Lng Vinh Quc Duy, trong 1 bui), Cc ch ca kinh t lng ti chnh v d
bo nng cao ARIMA, SARIMA, ARCH-GARCH (thy Phng Thanh Bnh, trong 4
bui), Phn tch k thut (Thy V Thanh Sn, trong 2 bui). C Trng Cng Thanh
Ngh chia s vi cc bn v kinh nghim lm nghin cu, v gii thiu cc gii thng
nghin cu khoa hc sinh vin, kinh nghim hc tp ca mt th khoa u vo cng nh u
ra Kho 28 ca trng H Kinh t TPHCM; anh Hong Anh (K hoch u t K31) chia
s kinh nghim ca anh trong vic hc tp ca mt ngi i trng t gii nht cuc thi
Kinh t hc - tm nhn bn v ti cuc thi do Khoa KTPT chng ta t chc vi hn 5000
th sinh t 11 trng i hc pha Nam - cng nh nhng nghin cu m anh ang n lc 1 ,
anh Nguyn Ngc Danh cng trao i vi cc bn v nghin cu ca anh v sc kho tr
em vi phng php 2SLS (l lun vn tt nghip chng trnh cao hc Vit Nam-H Lan
ca anh Danh)
Bn cnh , nhng bn sinh vin lp nhn lc, mt s bn lp KHT, Thm nh
gi cng tng nghe ni v SEM cng nh bit c s ph bin ca n trong cc nghin
cu khi tham d bui bo co chuyn ng dng phng php nh lng trong nghin
cu qun tr ngun nhn lc v hnh vi t chc do c Trn Kim Dung bo co. Sng nay,
v chiu nay, mt ngy ch nht, chng ta s tm hiu nhng vn quan trng nht, c bn
nht ca SEM, CFA v th tm hiu xem ngi ta vn dng n trong nghin cu v
qun tr, Marketing, nhn lc, hnh vi trong lnh vc ti chnh chng khon, tm l hc
khu vc t cng nh khu vc cng nh th no t cc bn c th t hc su hn v
SEM v vn dng mt cch sng to vo nhng nghin cu m cc bn ang p . Gi ra
chi sng nay, Anh Hong Nam (Sachvang), l admin v cng l ging vin tr ca Khoa
Qun tr Kinh Doanh s gii thiu vi cc bn Forum caohockinhte.info l mt din n rt
hp dn v si ng ca cng ng cao hc kinh t Vit Nam, v trn y cng c mt mc
dnh ring cho cc bn sinh vin i hc yu thch hot ng nghin cu khoa hc (mc C
nhn v thc s ti nng tng lai).
Trong nhng nm gn y, khng ch nhiu ngi nghin cu trn th gii v Vit
Nam c p dng SEM 2 (Cc bn xem thm trong ph lc, ti liu pht, cc file gi qua
email v nghin cu ca thy Nguyn nh Th, c Mai Trang, c Kim Dung, nghin cu
ca ti, v nghin cu ca cc tc gi khc) m mt s bn sinh vin i hc, hc vin cao
1

Ti ngy mai, th hai (11/5/09), 4 bn thuc lp chng ta (Hong NLK32, Phng BSK32, Hi & Cn
TG K32) s l 1 i i din cho trng ta tham gia vng chung kt cuc thi Nh kinh t tng lai do
trng bn H Ngoi Thng (CS2) t chc ti Nh vn ho thanh nin. Tuy mng qun tr kinh doanh
khng phi th mnh ca cc bn SV khoa KTPT, nhng tham gia cuc thi ny cng l mt mi trng hc
tp, rn luyn, th hin bn thn, v giao lu! Chc cc bn y may mn, vui, v hc tp c nhiu iu b
ch!
2
Ti c nh hun luyn thm cho lp v mt s ch khc na, nhng nhng ch ny ch c mt vi
nhm s dng v mt kh nhiu thi gian khi trnh by trn lp: M hnh h phng trnh (mt s nhm c th
s dng trong d bo cc ch tiu v m), Kinh t lng vi d liu bng (Nhm bn Mnh Dng, Thanh Hng,
Thanh Thu lp Thm nh gi K32), Khai thc b d liu VHLSS vi phn mm STATA (Nhm ca Th
Hng v bt bnh ng trong thu nhp KHT K32, Nhm bn Khng lp Nhn lc K32) cc bn c th
lin h vi ti qua email, hoc trao i trc tip ti phng gio vin H103 vo tra th nm hng tun v nhng
vn ny. V ti cng bit, lp ta c kh nng t hc rt cao!

hc cng p dng SEM trong nghin cu ca h. Hai bn sinh vin i hc Kho 31 m

ti c dp hng dn cng s dng trong vic o lng cht lng dch v khch sn
Nha Trang (kho st c khch du lch quc t v khch trong nc), cc yu t to ng lc
lm vic cho cng nhn cc Khu cng nghip ti TPHCM, Bnh Dng. Nm ngoi, mt
bn sinh vin Trng H Kinh t - H Nng cng s dng trong ti NCKH sinh
vin ca bn, v ti bit nhiu bn sinh vin khc cng lm, s lm
AMOS c vit tt t Analysis of MOment Structures (Phn tch cu trc m
mng). Phn mm ny dng thc hin mt phng php chung trong phn tch d liu l
Structural Equation Modeling (SEM_ m hnh cu trc tuyn tnh). SEM cng c nhng tn
gi khc nh Analysis of Covariance Structures (Phn tch cu trc hip phng sai), hay
Causal Modeling (m hnh nhn qu). Trn ng ln tham quan bc tng Cha giang tay
thnh ph bin Vng Tu (Mi Nghinh Phong), bn s thy mt hnh nh ca v thnh cng
c tn l AMOS!
Bn hy xem qua mt v d v CFA. Pont & Quilken (2002) kho st 348 khch
hng cc ngn hng v s dng phn tch nhn t khng nh (vit tt l CFA, Xem Hnh
1.1 ci s lng nhng vi my ci mc hai u trn) kim nh thang o cht
lng dch v ngn hng (BANKSERV) do Avkiran xut nm 1994 nc c (k tha
17 item o lng cht lng dch v ngn hng ca Avkiran 1 ). Trong phn tch nhn t
khng nh, Pont v Quilken ch ra rng thang o ny hin nay khng ph hp, v Chisquare=419.15; P=0.001 (<0.05), df = 113, CMIN/df=3.7 (>2), Cc ch tiu TLI=0.86,
CFI=0.88, GFI=0.87 (u <0.9) 2
Tuy nhin, Theo bn v sao kt qu li nh th? Lm th no tt hn?
(bn hy c k li nghin cu ca Pont v Quilken trong file gi vo email chung!)
Bn c thy rng: nm 2002, Pont & Quilken (c l 2 bn ny ang l hc vin sau
i hc) p dng y nguyn thang o BANKSERV do Avkiran xut t nm 1994 m khng
c s iu chnh no c? Pont khng b sung bin quan st no, khng hiu chnh g, khng
EFA li Khng cn lm nghin cu ny cng bit l p dng y nguyn th n s khng cn
ph hp, bi qua thi gian mi iu thay i. Trong CFA, bn cng c th c cch hiu
chnh m hnh, ci thin mc ph hp vi th trng bng cch thm cc tng quan gia
sai s Trong CFA ta cn quan tm n nhiu iu khc na!

Avkiran, N.K, (1999), Developing an instrument to measure customer service quality in branch banking,
Internation Journal of Banking Marketing, 12 (6), 10-18
2
Bn hy nhng ng thc c in m trong ngoc n, nu cc ch tiu tng ng ri vo trng hp
nh vy th m hnh o lng (hay m hnh nghin cu m bn s tip cn sau ny) khng ph hp vi th
trng

Hnh 1.1

Cc bin trong s trn c gii thch nh sau:

Trong ch ny, ngi ta khng ch ngh n vic kim nh m hnh o lng

thng qua CFA, m iu quan tm hn na l xy dng, kim nh m hnh nghin cu 1
thng qua m hnh nhn qu, hay thng gi l m hnh cu trc (SEM).
Ch Mai Thu Ninh (sinh vin i hc ngnh k hoch u t Kho 31 m ti may
mn c dp hng dn) ang lm ti tt nghip v nh gi mc tho mn ca khch du
lch i vi cht lng dch v khch sn ti thnh ph Nha Trang. Ninh pht trin thang
o cht lng dch v khch sn (Qualification of Hotel Service) ca Saleh and Ryan (1990)
v thang o cht lng dch v du lch ca Kanampully (2001) vi mt s thnh phn mi
nh v tr, thng tin, v quan tm n yu t gi c. Kho st 107 khch du lch quc t v 73
khch ni a, sau khi EFA, Ninh lm CFA v t yu cu, sau thc hin m hnh cu
trc xem xt nh hng ca cht lng, v tr, gi c n s tho mn v lng trung
thnh th mt kt qu ban u nh Hnh 1.2:
Bn nhn xt s b g v mc ph hp ca m hnh? C cch no ci thin m
hnh c tt hn?
- Bn s nhn nh rng m hnh ny cha tt, cha ph hp phi khng? ng th!
- C nhiu cch thc hiu chnh m hnh. V d nh: thm vo cc h s tng quan gia
cc sai s; iu chnh mi quan h gia cc khi nim; b bt mt s bin quan st, mt s
khi nim trong m hnh nghin cu khng t yu cu; thc hin li cc phn tch trc EFA
- Cn cch no khc na khng? Khi ti ang vit bi ging ny, cc em c bit ch Ninh
ang lm g khng? Mc d chuyn tt nghip xong, ch cng ang chun b bo v,
v tham gia ti NCKH sinh vin, m hnh tm c (Khng phi l m hnh nh Hnh
1.2), nhng ch ang trn chuyn tu v Nha Trang kho st thm khong 100 khch quc
t, 100 khch ni a na ti cc khch sn, phng ch sn bay, mt s khu du lch v ch
trng hn cht lng ca cuc phng vn ngoi ra, ch cng ch trng thm v kho st
nh tnh. Ti ngh, c l ch y mun khm ph, v khng nh mt iu g , mun ng
gp mt iu g c ngha, mun nghin cu ny khng ch b vo trong th vin cc
kho sau tham kho, hay ch ng trn cc tp ch hn lm!

M hnh th hin cc quan h tng quan, v quan h nhn qu gia cc khi nim. N thng c biu din
bi s , phng trnh.

Hnh 1.2
.60

e1
e2
.12
e3
.32
e4
.23
e5
.25
e6
.15
e7
.46
e8
.23
e9
.06
e10
.29
e11
.25
e12
e13
e14
.53
e15
.15
e16
e17
.30
e18
e19
e20
e21
e22
.18 e23
.63

che1 .51
chi-square= 2406.583 ; df= 534 ; p= .000 ;
che3 .80
chi-square/df= 4.507 ;
reab1.81
cfi= .811 ; tli= .790 ;
reab2.74
rmsea= .140
reab3.79
.77
reab4.79 .72
.90
res1 .83 .90
.86
res2 .78 .89
.89
res3 .77 .91
.88
res4 .74 .88
.86
res5.92
.85
res6.94
.88 chatluong
e39
e38
.89
res7 .80
.67
.85
.62
.89
ser1 .91
.73
.79
ser2 .82 .87
thoa man
trung thanh
.85
ser3 .76 .88
.97 .91
.94
ser4 .78 .86
.90 .82
.87
.91
.93
.82 .94
.89
.81 .67
ser5 .73 .93
.95
.53
sat1
sat2
sat3
loy1
loy2
loy3
loy4
ser6 .75 .81
.11
.83
ser7 .86 .81
.24
e33 e32 e31 e34 e35 e36 e37
tang1.66
-.63
tang4.66
.13
.32
tang5.76
.87

.33

e26
e27

loc1 .72
loc2 .88

e28
e29
e30

pri1 .88
gia ca
pri2 .35
.59
.94
foo2

vitri
.85
.94

.48

Sau khi hc xong ch ny, bn s khng ch c nhng hiu bit cn bn v m hnh

cu trc, nhng thao tc trn AMOS, m cn gip bn bit cch xy dng, hiu chnh, hon
chnh m hnh. V bn c kin thc nn tng c th d dng hiu c cc nghin cu
(c p dng SEM) m cc tc gi trong v ngoi nc lm! iu ny gip bn i nhanh,
v xa hn trong tip cn nhng tri thc mi, v to ra tri thc mi trong khoa hc.

10

Trong gn 100 em ang hc y, ti ca nhm em no c th p dng CFA, SEM?

D nhin, s c nhiu em c th lm c, v nhiu ti c th s dng SEM, bi
cc em hc lp ny l lm tt hn cc nghin cu m cc em ang lm, ng gp mt
iu g c ngha cho x hi ngay trong khong thi gian ging ng i hc, v
chun b hnh trang cho cng vic/hc tp sau khi tt nghip i hc! V d nhng ti ca
mt s nhm: cht lng dch v bnh vin, k tc x, my bn hng t ng, dch v vn
ti hnh khch ca tu Thng Nht, dch v gio dc; ng lc lm vic ca nhn vin trong
khu vc cng, yu t nh hng n kt qu lm vic ca nhn vin, xu hng mua, hnh vi
ca nh u t trn th trng chng khon, vn ho t chc, phong cch lnh o 1 .
Mt s nhm s dng kinh t lng vi d liu bng (nh ti cc yu t nh ng
n FDI vo cc quc gia ang pht trin), hay ti p dng k thut kinh t lng truyn
thng (c lng TFP, cc yu t tc ng n thu nhp ca lao ng tr Vit Nam), k
thut d bo vi ARIMA, SARIMA, VAR, ARCH-GARCH (d bo gi vng, khch du lch,
FDI trong bi cnh khng hong kim nh tnh hiu qu ca th trng chng khon, th
trng vng ) hay ch p dng thng k m t cng ng lo lng, v hy tip tc hon
thin nghin cu theo hng ! Phng php nghin cu no, phng php phn tch d
liu nott c ch l cch thc, cng c cc em t c mc tiu nghin cu! Vn
quan trng l la chn phng php ph hp t c mc tiu m thi!
Thi gian gn y, trong mt bui hun luyn v phn tch d liu vi SPSS cho cc
bn SV nghin cu khoa hc ca Khoa Thng Mi Du Lch Marketing do on Khoa
bn y t chc, mt nhm bn sinh vin c trao i vi ti v nghin cu s tho mn ca
khch hng i xe bus vi m hnh Kano (s dng EFA, v thng k m t)... Hay mt s bn
sinh vin cc Khoa trong trng chng ta tham gia kho hun luyn v phn tch d liu
nghin cu vi SPSS do on Trng t chc cng trao i v nhng nghin cu: Cc yu
t nh hng n tnh hnh ph sn (anh Bo - Khoa TCDN, p dng phn tch phn bit),
cc yu t nh hng n xc sut ri vo tnh hnh n xu ca cc doanh nghip (anh Thnh
Khoa TCDN, p dng Logit), ti v ngn hng in t (EFA, Hi quy), Marketing a
phng (anh Chinh Khoa KTPT, p dng Thng k m t, nghin cu nh tnh), nh v
thng hiu Vnh Tin (ch Phng Linh, khoa KTPT, p dng EFA, Hi quy, MDS) Rt
nhiu bn b (Kho 32), cc anh ch sinh vin (Kho 31) trong trng cng ang lm cc
nghin cu nh cc em!
Mt gi nghin cu dnh cho cc bn sinh vin k hoch u t, bt ng sn, thm
nh gi?
Hy xem qua bi vit Investment Management and personality type ca Mayfield,
Perdue, Wooten va ng trn tp ch Financial Service Review, s 17 nm 2008 ( c
gi qua email). Hnh 1.3 th hin mt m hnh m cc tc gi lm Hoa K. Cc bn th
nghin cu vn ny Vit Nam! Mt mt ngn hng c m sn giao dch vng cng t
hng ti nghin cu hnh vi ca cc nh u t trn th trng vng Vit Nam, cc bn th
xem xem liu rng nghin cu ca Mayfield & ctg (2008) ny c h tr g khng?

Chng ta cn nh vo gia thng 6/2009, on Khoa KTPT s t chc hi tho khoa hc v Cc vn

Kinh t X hi ca Vit Nam v th gii qua phn tch nh lng, m ngi bo co, ngi tham d chnh l
cc em, v mt s bn sinh vin NCKH ca khoa bn, trng bn, v mt s anh ch Kho 31.

11

Hnh 1.3

M hnh trn c Chi-square=183.63, df=141, P=0.009; GFI=0.91, CFI=0.95

Trong m hnh nhng yu t nh hng n nh u t ngn hn trn (bn cnh , cc tc
gi cng nghin cu m hnh i vi nh u t di hn), mt s bin quan st o lng
cc khi nim c trnh by trang 13

12

13

Trong bi hc ny, c 1 v d xuyn sut; chng ta s s dng d liu m ch Nguyn

Th M Thun 1 kho st phc v cho ti NCKH sinh vin ca ch lm v d phn
tch. ti ca ch Thun s dng cc cng c phn tch EFA, Cronbachs Alpha, Regression
(cc ch ny cc bn u c hc trong mn phn tch d liu v d bo). V by gi,
cc bn hy th pht trin thm bng cch s dng CFA, SEM xem th no! Tnh hung n
gin v gn gi ny s gip bn d hiu hn v CFA, SEM vi cc thao tc chnh trn
AMOS. Nhng tnh hung vi cc m hnh rt phc tp khc m bn s tm hiu, s lm
c sau ny cng tng t nh th thi!
2. PHN TCH NHN T KHM PH (Nhc li s lc v hc)
Bng cu hi ca ch Thun (xem ph lc) da trn nghin cu ca Dung (2005)
hiu chnh cho Vit Nam. T nghin cu nh tnh, ch Thun hiu chnh mt s bin
quan st (Item), b i mt s Item khng ph hp vi nhn vin trong lnh vc Ti chnhngn hng, bt ng sn, cng ngh thng tin (nhng ngnh mi nhn ca TPHCM) m ch
ang quan tm
Ch Thun phi EFA li, v cu trc ca thang o trong tnh hung ca ch Thun
cha chc ging vi nghin cu trc ca Dung v Nam (2005), v d nhin c th cng
khng ging vi kt qu nghin cu ca Stanton v Crossley (2000) cng nh ca Crossman
v Bassem (2003) m Dung k tha. Ch Thun vi mc tiu l sau EFA s chy
Regression v th khi EFA cho thang o JDI (Tho mn ca nhn vin vi cng vic) ch c
th s dng phng php Principal Components vi php xoay Varimax cng c. Cn bn,
sau EFA bn s lm tip CFA v SEM nn rt quan tm n cu trc ca thang o, cc khi
nim sau khi rt ra c th tng quan vi nhau, v cng rt quan tm n s phn bit r rng
gia cc nhn t. V vy bn nn lm EFA vi nhng i mi sau:
S dng phng php trch Principal Axis Factoring vi php xoay Promax 2
Quan tm n tiu chun 3 : |Factor Loading| ln nht ca mi Item >=0.5
Quan tm n tiu chun: Ti mi Item, chnh lch |Factor Loading| ln nht v
|Factor Loading| bt k phi >=0.3 (Jabnoun & Al-Tamimi, 2003)
Tng phng sai trch >=50% (Gerbing & Anderson, 1988)
KMO>=0.5, Kim nh Bartlett c ngha thng k (Sig<0.05) 4
a. Khi nim s tho mn ca nhn vin vi cng vic
1

Ch Thun l sinh vin kho 30 ngnh k hoch u t khoa KTPT (m ti hng dn ti NCKH sinh vin),
ch Thun cng l lin chi hi ph hi sinh vin ca Khoa KTPT, ti ca ch t gii khuyn khch cp B.
Hin nay ch Thun ra trng c 1 nm v ang lm vic ti ngn hng ACB
2
Theo Gerbing & Anderson (1988), Phng php trch Principal Axis Factoring vi php xoay Promax
(Oblique) s phn nh cu trc d liu chnh xc hn phng php trch Principal Components vi php xoay
Varimax (Orthogonal)
3
Theo Hair & ctg (1998,111), Factor loading la ch tieu e am bao mc y ngha thiet thc cua EFA
(ensuring practical significance). Factor loading > 0.3 c xem la at c mc toi thieu, Factor loading >
0.4 c xem la quan trong, 0.5 c xem la co y ngha thc tien. Hair & ctg (1998,111) cung khuyen ban
oc nh sau: neu chon tieu chuan factor loading > 0.3 th c mau cua ban t nhat phai la 350, neu c mau cua
ban khoang 100 th nen chon tieu chuan factor loading > 0.55, neu c mau cua ban khoang 50 th Factor
loading phai > 0.75
4
KMO l mt ch tiu dng xem xt s thch hp ca EFA, 0.5KMO1 th phn tch nhn t l thch hp.
Kim nh Bartlett xem xt gi thuyt v tng quan gia cc bin quan st bng khng trong tng th. Nu
kim nh ny c ngha thng k (Sig < 0.05) th cc bin quan st c tng quan vi nhau trong tng th
(Trng & Ngc, 2008)

14

Bn cn nh thao tc EFA trong phn mm SPSS? Analyze\Data Reduction\Factor

Hnh 1.4

Hnh 1.5

Hnh 1.7

Hnh 1.6

Hnh 1.8

15

Kt qu ban u
Pattern Matrixa
Factor
1

prom1

.863

prom3
prom2
prom4
work4
sup6
sup5
sup3
sup7
sup4
sup2
sup1
pay4
pay5
pay2
ben4
pay3
pay1
cow1
cow3
cow2
cow4
ben3
ben2
ben1
env3
work3
work2
work1
env2
env1
env4

.753
.689
.651
.436

.351
.268

Cc con s trong
bng ny gi l cc
Factor loading (h s
ti nhn t)
.811
.784
.758
.664
.482
.411
.378

.331
-.301

.325

-.282
.889
.770
.607
.549
.488
.485

.283

.297
.211
.293
.271
.814
.810
.810
.454

.432

.982
.977
.592
.264

.334

.246

.207

Env4 b loi u tin

v con.223
s ny nh
hn 0.5, v t nht

.768
.541
.514
-.279

.213

.541
.478
.232

Extraction Method: Principal Axis Factoring.

Rotation Method: Promax with Kaiser Normalization.
a. Rotation converged in 7 iterations.

Ln lt loi tng bin khng t yu cu (bin no t nht b loi trc):

Env4, env3, sup1, sup2, work4, cow4, env2, env1, pay3, pay1, pay2,
V ben1

16

Kt qu EFA ln cui
Pattern Matrixa
Factor
1

sup6

.841

sup5

.826

sup3

.758

sup7

.628

sup4

.520

.278

prom1

.899

prom2

.707

prom3

.670

prom4

.602

cow1

.913

cow2

.795

cow3

.768

pay4

.907

pay5

.817

ben4

Cc con s trong
bng ny gi l cc
Factor loading (h
s ti nhn t)

.270

.593

ben2

.961

ben3

.952

work3

.915

work2

.791

work1

.545

Extraction Method: Principal Axis Factoring.

Rotation Method: Promax with Kaiser Normalization.
a. Rotation converged in 6 iterations.

Bn c nhn xt g t kt qu EFA?
C 6 nhn t c rt ra.
Nhn t 1: gm cc bin quan st sup3-sup7 c t tn l Lnh o
Nhn t 2: gm prom1-prom4 Thng tin
Nhn t 3: gm cow1-cow3 ng nghip
Nhn t 4: gm pay4, pay5, ben4 lng-thng
Nhn t 5: gm ben2, ben3 bo him
Nhn t 6: gm work1-work4 bn cht cng vic

17

Total Variance Explained

Rotation
Sums of
Squared
Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings Loadingsa

Initial Eigenvalues
Factor

Total

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

7.378
1.880
1.752
1.512
1.359
1.067

36.889
9.401
8.759
7.560
6.794
5.334

36.889
46.290
55.049
62.609
69.403
74.737

.722

3.612

78.349

.564

2.821

81.169

.537

2.683

83.853

10

.461

2.306

86.159

11

.403

2.014

88.173

12

.395

1.973

90.146

13

.365

1.826

91.971

14

.341

1.704

93.676

15

.306

1.530

95.206

16

.252

1.260

96.466

17

.244

1.221

97.687

18

.212

1.062

98.749

19

.182

.911

99.660

20

.068

.340

100.000

% of Variance Cumulative %

Total
7.016
1.726
1.428
1.167
1.022
.712

% of Variance Cumulative %
35.080
8.632
7.138
5.835
5.109
3.558

35.080
43.712
50.849
56.685
61.793
65.352

Total
5.210
5.142
4.015
3.801
2.615
4.584

Tng phng sai

trch/ hay tng
bin thin c
gii thch bi cc
nhn t

Extraction Method: Principal Axis Factoring.

a. When factors are correlated, sums of squared loadings cannot be added to obtain a total
variance.

KMO and Bartlett's Test

Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy.
Bartlett's Test of Sphericity

Approx. Chi-Square

.847
2327.451

df

190

Sig.

.000

Hai bng trn cho bn nhn xt g?

- Tng phng sai trch (hay tng bin thin c gii thch) bng 65.35% (>50%)
- KMO = 0.847 (>0.5) v kim nh Bartlett c ngha thng k (Sig<0.05)
Nn EFA l ph hp.

18

b. Khi nim lng trung thnh

Khi nim lng trung thnh l 1 khi nim n hng (khi EFA, cc bin quan st rt thnh 1
nhn t), nn c th th s dng phng php trch Principal Component Analysis v phng
php trch ny s lm cho tng phng sai trch tt hn.
Bn c nhn xt g nu c kt qu t EFA cho cc bin quan st thuc khi nim lng
trung thnh nh sau?
KMO and Bartlett's Test
.701

Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy.

Bartlett's Test of Sphericity

Approx. Chi-Square

188.787

df

3
.000

Sig.

Total Variance Explained

Initial Eigenvalues

Compo
nent

Total

% of Variance

Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings

Cumulative %

2.146

71.523

71.523

.487

16.230

87.753

.367

12.247

100.000

Total
2.146

% of Variance

Cumulative %

71.523

71.523

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

Component Matrixa

Bng ny ch c 1 ct, cho

thy loy1, loy2, loy3 rt
thnh 1 nhn t

Component
1
loy1

.874

loy3

.834

loy2

.829

Extraction Method: Principal Component

Analysis.
a. 1 components extracted.

- Ch c 1 nhn t c rt ra, nhn t ny cng c t tn l Trung thnh

- EFA cng ph hp v Tng phng sai trch bng 71.53 (>50%), KMO = 0.701 (>0.5), Sig
ca kim nh Bartlett=0.000 (<0.05)
M hnh cu trc tuyn tnh (SEM) bao gm nhiu k thut thng k khc nhau nh
phn tch ng dn (Path Analysis), phn tch nhn t khng nh (Confirmatory Factor
Analysis), M hnh nhn qu vi cc bin tim n (Causal modeling with Latent variable, v
cng thng gi l SEM), v thm ch c phn tch phng sai (Analysis of Variance), m
hnh hi quy tuyn tnh bi (Multiple Linear Regression). Chng ta s tm hiu CFA, SEM.
19

3. PHN TCH NHN T KHNG NH (CFA)

T kt qu ca EFA, gi bn thy rng ta c 7 khi nim chnh s dng trong m hnh
nghin cu sau ny. l

Lnh o c o lng bi cc bin quan st sup3-sup7

Thng tin c o lng bi cc bin quan st prom1-prom4
ng nghip c o lng bi cc bin quan st cow1-cow3
Lng-thng c o lng bi cc bin quan st pay4, pay5, ben4
Bo him c o lng bi cc bin quan st ben2, ben3
Bn cht cng vic c o lng bi cc bin quan st work1-work4
Lng trung thnh: c o lng bi loy1, loy2, loy3

6 khi nim u tin l cc khi nim thnh phn ca khi nim S tho mn ca nhn vin
vi cng vic. Cu trc ca thang o S tho mn nhn vin vi cng vic gm c 6 khi
nim thnh phn nh trn, v cc bin quan st tng ng cho tng khi nim cng c
lit k nh trn. Cc bin quan st quan st sup3-sup7; prom1-prom4; cow1-cow3; pay4,
pay5, ben4; ben2, ben3; work1-work4 to thnh mt thang o o lng khi nim S
tho mn ca nhn vin vi cng vic. Cc bin quan st loy1, loy2, loy3 to thnh mt
thang o o lng khi nim lng trung thnh.
Nhng iu trn to thnh mt m hnh o lng cc khi nim s dng trong nghin cu
ca bn. V by gi Chng ta cn kim nh xem M hnh o lng ny c t c yu cu
khng? Cc thang o c t c yu cu ca mt thang o tt khng? Vic ny chng ta cn
s dng n phn tch nhn t khng nh (CFA)
Trong CFA ta c th thc hin cho tng khi nim, mt s khi nim, hoc thc hin vi tt
c cc khi nim c trong m hnh (gi l m hnh ti hn)
Ve mat ly thuyet, trong CFA, chung ta chu y en mot so van e sau:
e o lng mc o phu hp cua mo hnh vi thong tin th trng, ngi ta thng s
dung Chi-square (CMIN); Chi-square ieu chnh theo bac t do (CMIN/df); ch so thch
hp so sanh (CFI_ Comparative Fit Index). Ch so Tucker & Lewis (TLI_ Tucker & Lewis
Index); Ch so RMSEA (Root Mean Square Error Approximation). Mo hnh c xem la
thch hp vi d lieu th trng khi kiem nh Chi-square co P-value > 0.05. Tuy nhien
Chi-square co nhc iem la phu thuoc vao kch thc mau. Neu mot mo hnh nhan c
cac gia tr GFI, TLI, CFI 0.9 (Bentler & Bonett, 1980); CMIN/df 2, mot so trng hp
CMIN/df co the 3 (Carmines & McIver, 1981); RMSEA 0.08, RMSEA 0.05 c
xem la rat tot (Steiger, 1990); th mo hnh c xem la phu hp vi d lieu th trng, hay
tng thch vi d lieu th trng. Tho & Trang (2008) cho rang Neu mo hnh nhan c
cac gia tr TLI, CFI 0.9, CMIN/df 2, RMSEA 0.08 th mo hnh phu hp (tng thch)
vi d lieu th trng. Quy tac nay cung c s dung e anh gia mc o phu hp cua
mo hnh cau truc muc 4.
Khi CFA, nen thc hien cac anh gia khac nh 1 :
1

Xem thm Th & Trang (2008)

20

(1) anh gia o tin cay cua thang o thong qua: (a) He so tin cay tong hp (composite
reliability) va (b) Tong phng sai trch c (variance extracted), (c) He so Cronbachs
Alpha
o tin cay tong hp (
) (Joreskog 1971 ), va tong phng sai trch (
)

VC

(Fornell & Larcker 1981) c tnh theo cong thc sau:

2
p
p
2
( i)

i
VC = p 2 i=1 p
C = p i =2 1 p
2
2
+
(
1

i i=1 i )
( i) + (1 i )
i =1
i =1
i =1
Trong o

la trong so chuan hoa cua bien quan sat th i; 1- i la phng sai cua sai

so o lng bien quan sat th i, p la so bien quan sat cua thang o.

Ch tieu
,
phai at yeu cau t 0.5 tr len

VC

Theo Hair (1998, 612):phng sai trch (Variance Extracted) cua moi khai niem nen vt
qua 0.5; va phng sai trch cung la mot ch tieu o lng o tin cay. No phan anh lng
bien thien chung cua cac bien quan sat c tnh toan bi bien tiem an
Schumacker & Lomax (2006, 178) cho rang trong CFA, mot van e quan trong can phai
quan tam khac la o tin cay cua tap hp cac bien quan sat o lng mot khai niem (nhan
to); va nh truyen thong, he so tin cay Cronbachs Alpha van thng c s dung. No o
lng tnh kien nh noi tai xuyen suot tap hp cac bien quan sat cua cac cau tra li
Trong kiem nh Cronbachs Alpha, cac bien quan sat co he so tng quan bien-tong
(item-total correlation) nho hn 0.3 se b loai va tieu chuan chon thang o khi he so
Cronbachs Alpha t 0.6 tr len (Nunnally & Burnstein, 1994). Tuy nhien, cung can lu y
rang neu Cronbachs Apha qua cao (>0.95) th co kha nang xuat hien bien quan sat tha
(Redundant items) trong thang o. Bien quan sat tha la bien o lng mot khai niem
hau nh trung vi bien o lng khac, tng t nh trng hp cong tuyen (collinearity)
trong hoi quy, khi o bien tha nen c loai bo.
(2) Tnh n hng/ n nguyen (unidimensionality)
- Theo Steenkamp & Van Trijp (1991), mc o phu hp cua mo hnh vi d lieu th trng
cho chung ta ieu kien can va u e cho tap bien quan sat at c tnh n hng, tr
trng hp cac sai so cua cac bien quan sat co tng quan vi nhau.
(3) Gia tr hoi tu (Convergent validity)
- Gerbring & Anderson (1988) cho rang thang o at c gia tr hoi tu khi cac trong so
chuan hoa cua thang o eu cao (>0.5); va co y ngha thong ke (P <0.05)

21

(4) Gia tr phan biet (Discriminant validity)

- Co the kiem nh gia tr phan biet cua cac khai niem trong mo hnh ti han (saturated
model) mo hnh ma cac khai niem nghien cu c t do quan he vi nhau). Co the thc
hien kiem nh he so tng quan xet tren pham vi tong the gia cac khai niem co thc s
khac biet so vi 1 hay khong. Neu no thc s khac biet th cac thang o at c gia tr
phan biet.
V du: Mot thang o co 2 khai niem spatial va verbal, so quan sat= 73
SE=SQRT((1-r2)/(n-2))

r
spatial

<-->

verbal

0.487

0.104

(1-r)/SE

P-value

4.949

0.000

TINV(0.05,71)=1.993
TDIST(4.95,71,2)=0.000 (<0.05) bac bo gia thuyet cho rang (spatial,verbal)=1
Ghi chu quy tac kiem nh 1 :
H o: =
H 1:

Tnh T =

|r |
o

1 r

; Tra bang phan phoi Student

, ,n 2
2

n2
Neu T > t , ,n 2 th bac bo Ho
2

(5) Gia tr lien he ly thuyet (Nomological validity)

- Cac van e t 1 en 4 c anh gia thong qua mo hnh o lng. Rieng gia tr lien he ly
thuyet c anh gia trong mo hnh ly thuyet (Anderson & Gerbing, 1988)
Khi cac van e tren thoa man th mo hnh o lng la tot. Tuy nhien, rat hiem mo hnh o
lng nao at c tat ca cac van e tren! V du, mo hnh o lng van co the c s
dung khi thang o khong at c tnh n hng

Xem Hoai (2001)

22

Ve mat thc hanh, ta s dung phan mem AMOS v i cch thc Amos Graphics 1
Khi ng AMOS? Start Program AMOS 16 Amos Graphics
Cng dng ca cc nt?

Dng v bin quan st

Dng v bin tim n
Dng v bin tim n v cc bin quan st
Hnh 3.1

Dng v yu t sai s

V h s ng dn, h s hi quy
V hip phng sai, h s tng quan
Lit k danh sch bin
Ngn tay: chn 1 i tng
Bn tay di: Chn tt c i tng
Bn tay ngn: Khng chn na
Di chuyn i tng
Xo i tng
My ph t: Copy i tng
Xoay i tng

Chnh kch c i tng

Tnh ton cc c lng
Di chuyn cc tham s c lng
Copy s ng dn vo Clipboard

Xem kt qu dng vn bn/ bng biu

Trong AMOS, ngoi AMOS Graphics c mt cch thc khc na l g cc lnh VB.NET hay C#

23

To file mi? File\New

M file d liu? File\Data Files (Ctrl-D) Chn File Name Chn kiu file v ch n
file cn m OK
Hnh 3.2

Hin th danh sch bin?

Chn nt sau
Hnh 3.3

Khi bn s thy mt hp thoi nh xut hin, lit k cc bin c trong d liu

Hnh 3.4

V cc bin tim n, cc bin quan st tng ng?

Bc 1. Chn nt
Hnh 3.5

24

Bc 2. R n v tr tng ng v ra 1 vng trn, nhp chut 5 tri nm ci, bn s c i

tng nh Hnh 3.6
Hnh 3.6

Bc 3. Nhp bn tay di, chn c i tng

Bc 6. Nhp t di chuyn i
tng sao cho p
Bc 4. Nhp nt ny xoay i
tng sao cho nh Hnh 3.7
Bc 5. Nhp nt ny Chnh sa
kch c ca i tng sao cho p

Hnh 3.7

Copy i tng?
Hin nay ch c mt Bin tim n vi 5 bin quan st nh Hnh 3.7. u tin bn s chn i
tng cn Copy bng cch nhp nt bn tay di, ri nhp ci my Photocopy, sau r chut
n v tr cn dn i tng c copy. Bn s c Hnh nh Hnh 3.8

25

Hnh 3.8

Bc 1. Chn nt ny
nh du i tng cn
Copy

Bc 2. Chn my
Photocopy copy, sau
r chut n v tr mi bn
s c thm mt i tng
na

t mi

By gi bn Copy xong ri, th hy nhp nt bn tay ngn, khng chn g na.

Tuy nhin i tng mi ca bn ch cn c 4 bin quan st thi. Do bn cn xo i 1 bin
quan st.
Xo 1 ci g ?

Chn nt

sau di chuyn cht n i tng cn xo, nhp chut vo i tng

Bn hy kt hp cc nt v to ra s nh Hnh 3.9:

26

Hnh 3.9

V cc cc mi tn 2 u? (Th hin cho hip phng sai/ h s tng quan)

Hnh 3.10

Bn hy t v ra tip c nh Hnh 3.11 nh

27

Hnh 3.11
1
1
1
1

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

1
1
1

1
1

1
1
1

1
1
1

28

Gp cc bin quan st vo cc hnh ch nht (hnh vung) i din cho cc bin quan
st trn s ?
Hnh 3.12
Nhp bin
tng ng
trong danh
sch v gp
sang

Sau khi gp cc bin quan st vo cc hnh ch nht tng ng. Bn s c s nh

Hnh 3.13.
By gi, bn nn gn tn cho cc bin tim n (Hnh elip) bng cch

Chn nt ngn tay

Nhp vo Hnh elip u tin, Click phi chut, Chn Object Properties (Hnh 3.13)
Hp thoi nh Hnh 14, xut hin. Bn hy nhp tn bin vo Variable name

Bn hy nhp vo nt ngn tay,

cc bin tim n ny.

, sau ln lt nhp vo cc Elip cn li, t tn cho

Hy lm tng t trong vic t tn cho cc sai s: e1, e2 ... (Hnh 3.15)

V by gi bn v song S nh Hnh 3.16.

29

Hnh 3.13

Hnh 3.14

30

Hnh 3.15

31

Hnh 3.16

e1
e2
e3
e4
e5
e6
e7
e8
e9
e10
e11
e12
e13
e14
e15
e16
e17
e18
e19
e20
e21
e22
e23

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

sup3
sup4
lanh dao

sup5
sup6

sup7
prom1
prom2
prom3

thang tien
1

prom4
cow1
cow2

dong nghiep

cow3
pay4
pay5

luong thuong

ben4
ben2
1

bao hiem

ben3
work1
work2

cong viec

work3
loy1
loy2

trung thanh

loy3

32

Th hin mt s ch tiu ln mn hnh?

Nu bn mun th hin mt s ch tiu ln mn hnh s ng dn, hy chn nt Title

, nhp chut ti 1 v tr mun th hin, g cc Macro sau

Hnh 3.17

Khi trn s s c cc dng tng ng (Hnh 3.18)

Hnh 3.18

Khai bo cc thuc tnh cn tnh ton?

T thanh Menu chn View\Analysis Properties
Hnh 3.19

Sau nh du chn nh Hnh 3.20, Hnh 3.21

33

Hnh 3.20

Hnh 3.21

Lu li file S s ? Files \ Save hoc Save As

Trc khi tnh ton, bn nn lu li file s ng dn

34

Tnh ton cc c lng?

Nhp nt

Cc kt qu s c tnh ton
Th hin kt qu?
Hnh 3.22

Chn nt ny th
hin kt qu tnh
ton ln s

Chuyn i cch th
hin dng khng
chun ho/ chun
ho

35

Kt qu dng s cha chun ho

Hnh 3.23

e1
e2
e3
e4

.73
1
.98
1
.71
1
.92
1
1.07
1

sup3
sup4

.92

sup6
sup7

e6

prom1

e7
e8

.81
1
1.39
1
.95
1

e9.52
e10

.61
1

1.48

lanh dao

sup5

e5 1.18
1

.92
.65

prom2
prom3
prom4
cow1

.89
1.00
.96
1.07

1.43

1.03

.83
1.00

1.00

e13

pay4

1.14

1.77
1

pay5

e16

ben2

1.10

.78
1

e19

.93
1
e20.83
1

work1

.41
.73

.47
2.40

.62

.62

1.59 .45

1.03
.34

work2

cong viec
.95
1.00

e21

loy1

1.00

e22

loy2

e23

loy3

1.15
1

1.02

1.00

1.00
.88

work3

1.68
1

1.34

bao hiem
ben3

.97

.41

1.14
1.00

e18

.39

luong thuong

ben4

.40
1
e171.01
1

.87

.97

e15.05

.52

1.23
.71

cow3

e14

.60

dong nghiep

e12.78

.71
1

.67

1.04

cow2

.65

thang tien

e11

.71
1

Chi-square= 403.140 ; df= 209 ; P= .000 ;

Chi-square/df = 1.929 ;
GFI= .858 ; TLI = .909 ; CFI = .925 ;
RMSEA= .068

.94
1.62

trung thanh
.99
1.00

36

Kt qu dng s chun ho
Hnh 3.24
.63

e1

sup3

.39

e2

sup4

e3

sup5

e4

sup6

e5

sup7

e6

prom1

e7

prom2

e8

prom3

e9
e10

.79
.62

.64
.80

lanh dao

.56
.58

Chi-square= 403.140 ; df= 209 ; P= .000 ;

Chi-square/df = 1.929 ;
GFI= .858 ; TLI = .909 ; CFI = .925 ;
RMSEA= .068

.75
.76
.66

.58
.65

.76
.81

.48

thang tien

.41

.60 .64
.78
prom4.72

cow1

e11

cow2

e12

cow3

e13

pay4

e14

pay5

e15

ben4

e16

ben2

.66

.69

.43 .84
.98

.67
.24

luong thuong

.66
.52

.26

.66
.99

work2

e20

work3 .66

loy3

.63

.32

.86

e19

e23

.21

.80
.83

work1

loy2

.57

.71

e18

e22

.51

dong nghiep

.63 .81

ben3

loy1

.28

.85

e17

e21

.48
.45

.55

.93
.74

.44

.43

bao hiem
.23

.65

.70
.17

.63 .80

cong viec

.79

.59

.81
.48
.58 .70

trung thanh

.76

37

Kt qu dng cc bng s liu

Chn nt
Hnh 3.25

, ca s Amos Output s xut hin

Nhp vo cc mc tng ng bn tri ca ca s Output, bn s xem cc kt qu khc nhau:

Regression Weights: (Group number 1 - Default model) Bng cc trng s cha chun ho

Estimate S.E. C.R.

P
sup7 <--- lanhdao
1.000
sup6 <--- lanhdao
.895 .085 10.533 ***
sup5 <--- lanhdao
.919 .082 11.273 ***
sup4 <--- lanhdao
.654 .076 8.637 ***
sup3 <--- lanhdao
.917 .082 11.192 ***
prom4 <--- thangtien
1.000
prom3 <--- thangtien
.826 .093 8.890 ***
prom2 <--- thangtien
1.030 .091 11.360 ***
prom1 <--- thangtien
1.075 .100 10.735 ***
cow1 <--- dongnghiep
1.037 .087 11.968 ***
cow3 <--- dongnghiep
1.000
cow2 <--- dongnghiep
.974 .084 11.619 ***
pay4 <--- luong_thuong
1.138 .122 9.353 ***
ben4 <--- luong_thuong
1.000
pay5 <--- luong_thuong
1.141 .121 9.411 ***
work1 <--- congviec
.881 .086 10.224 ***

Label

38

work3 <--- congviec

work2 <--- congviec
ben3 <--- baohiem
ben2 <--- baohiem
loy1 <--- trungthanh
loy3 <--- trungthanh
loy2 <--- trungthanh

Estimate S.E. C.R.

P
1.000
.952 .086 11.012 ***
1.000
1.096 .101 10.804 ***
.999 .093 10.774 ***
1.000
.985 .106 9.338 ***

Label

Standardized Regression Weights: (Group number 1 - Default model)

sup7 <--sup6 <--sup5 <--sup4 <--sup3 <--prom4 <--prom3 <--prom2 <--prom1 <--cow1 <--cow3 <--cow2 <--pay4 <--ben4 <--pay5 <--work1 <--work3 <--work2 <--ben3 <--ben2 <--loy1 <--loy3 <--loy2 <---

lanhdao
lanhdao
lanhdao
lanhdao
lanhdao
thangtien
thangtien
thangtien
thangtien
dongnghiep
dongnghiep
dongnghiep
luong_thuong
luong_thuong
luong_thuong
congviec
congviec
congviec
baohiem
baohiem
trungthanh
trungthanh
trungthanh

Estimate
.762
.750
.799
.625
.793
.776
.643
.808
.764
.846
.795
.811
.830
.656
.843
.740
.793
.805
.925
.992
.812
.764
.695

Cc trng s ( chun ho)

ny cn > 0.5 thang o c
th t c gi tr hi t.
Trng hp bin quan st no
c trng s <0.5 th bn ln
lt loi ra.

Covariances: (Group number 1 - Default model) Hip phng sai

lanhdao
lanhdao
lanhdao
lanhdao
lanhdao

Estimate S.E.
<--> thangtien
.961 .158
<--> dongnghiep
.646 .130
<--> luong_thuong
.671 .143
<--> baohiem
.519 .158
<--> congviec
.875 .158

C.R.
6.070
4.974
4.686
3.287
5.542

P
***
***
***
.001
***

Label

39

Estimate S.E.
lanhdao
<--> trungthanh
.970 .168
thangtien
<--> dongnghiep
.602 .127
thangtien
<--> luong_thuong
.707 .145
thangtien
<--> baohiem
.389 .152
thangtien
<--> congviec
1.017 .166
thangtien
<--> trungthanh
1.002 .168
dongnghiep <--> luong_thuong
.408 .118
dongnghiep <--> baohiem
.408 .141
dongnghiep <--> congviec
.729 .139
dongnghiep <--> trungthanh
.618 .136
luong_thuong <--> baohiem
.470 .154
luong_thuong <--> congviec
.621 .145
luong_thuong <--> trungthanh
1.029 .179
congviec
<--> baohiem
.454 .163
baohiem
<--> trungthanh
.338 .162
congviec
<--> trungthanh
.941 .170

C.R.
5.791
4.745
4.873
2.561
6.136
5.948
3.466
2.886
5.237
4.536
3.058
4.287
5.735
2.784
2.085
5.528

P
***
***
***
.010
***
***
***
.004
***
***
.002
***
***
.005
.037
***

Label

Correlations: (Group number 1 - Default model) H s tng quan

lanhdao
<-->
lanhdao
<-->
lanhdao
<-->
lanhdao
<-->
lanhdao
<-->
lanhdao
<-->
thangtien
<-->
thangtien
<-->
thangtien
<-->
thangtien
<-->
thangtien
<-->
dongnghiep <-->
dongnghiep <-->
dongnghiep <-->
dongnghiep <-->
luong_thuong <-->
luong_thuong <-->
luong_thuong <-->
congviec
<-->
baohiem
<-->
congviec
<-->

thangtien
dongnghiep
luong_thuong
baohiem
congviec
trungthanh
dongnghiep
luong_thuong
baohiem
congviec
trungthanh
luong_thuong
baohiem
congviec
trungthanh
baohiem
congviec
trungthanh
baohiem
trungthanh
trungthanh

Estimate
.661
.480
.478
.276
.572
.628
.454
.511
.210
.675
.658
.318
.238
.523
.439
.262
.426
.699
.233
.171
.588

40

Variances: (Group number 1 - Default model) Phng sai

lanhdao
thangtien
dongnghiep
luong_thuong
congviec
baohiem
trungthanh
e5
e4
e3
e2
e1
e9
e8
e7
e6
e12
e11
e10
e15
e14
e13
e17
e16
e20
e19
e18
e23
e22
e21

Estimate S.E.
1.476 .243
1.431 .232
1.227 .194
1.337 .274
1.586 .255
2.402 .349
1.619 .273
1.066 .131
.920 .111
.707 .092
.985 .108
.730 .094
.947 .123
1.388 .156
.807 .113
1.177 .150
.713 .099
.607 .089
.525 .089
1.765 .202
.706 .126
.781 .130
.403 .214
.049 .253
.934 .136
.781 .118
1.014 .130
1.154 .155
1.680 .202
.834 .129

C.R.
P Label
6.068 ***
6.158 ***
6.336 ***
4.879 ***
6.228 ***
6.888 ***
5.932 ***
8.165 ***
8.297 ***
7.660 ***
9.147 ***
7.746 ***
7.683 ***
8.926 ***
7.120 ***
7.849 ***
7.167 ***
6.816 ***
5.873 ***
8.718 ***
5.601 ***
5.988 ***
1.885 .059
.194 .847
6.855 ***
6.599 ***
7.775 ***
7.456 ***
8.325 ***
6.481 ***

41

Squared Multiple Correlations: (Group number 1 - Default model) thng gi l R2

loy1
loy2
loy3
work1
work2
work3
ben2
ben3
pay4
pay5
ben4
cow1
cow2
cow3
prom1
prom2
prom3
prom4
sup3
sup4
sup5
sup6
sup7

Estimate
.659
.483
.584
.548
.648
.629
.983
.856
.689
.711
.431
.715
.657
.632
.584
.653
.413
.602
.629
.390
.638
.562
.581

CMIN

Model
Default model
Saturated model
Independence model

NPAR
67
276
23

CMIN
403.140
.000
2831.904

DF
209
0
253

P
.000

CMIN/DF
1.929

.000

11.193

RMR, GFI

Model
Default model
Saturated model
Independence model

RMR
.142
.000
.812

GFI
.858
1.000
.262

AGFI
.813

PGFI
.650

.195

.240

42

Baseline Comparisons

Model
Default model
Saturated model
Independence model

NFI
Delta1
.858
1.000
.000

RFI
rho1
.828
.000

IFI
Delta2
.926
1.000
.000

TLI
rho2
.909
.000

CFI
.925
1.000
.000

RMSEA

Model
Default model
Independence model

RMSEA
.068
.226

LO 90
.058
.219

HI 90
.078
.234

PCLOSE
.002
.000

Bn hy da vo cc kt qu trn v nh gi v m hnh o lng?

Mc ph hp chung?
- Chi-square/df = 1.93 (<2); TLI = 0.909 ; CFI=0.925; RMSEA=0.068 (<0.08) nn c th ni
l m hnh ph hp vi d liu th trng.

Tuy nhin, c 1 s ch tiu cha t, theo bn ci thin cc ch tiu ny bng cch no?
Gi tr hi t?

- Cc trng s (chun ho) u > 0.5 v cc trng s (cha chun ho) u c ngha thng
k nn cc khi nim t c gi tr hi t.

Tnh n nguyn?

M hnh ny o lng ny ph hp vi d liu th trng, v khng c tng quan gia cc

sai s o lng nn n t c tnh n nguyn.

43

 tin cy?
p dng cng thc v tnh tin cy tng hp? Tng phng sai trch? V d nht l s
dng Cronbachs Alpha
Bn cn nh thao tc trn SPSS?
Analyze\ Scale\ Reliability Analysis

Hnh 3.26

V d: Vi thang o lnh o
H s Cronbachs Alpha = 0.86 (>0.6) v
Cc h s tng quan bin tng u > 0.3
nn thang o lnh o t c tin cy

Reliability Statistics
Cronbach's

N of Items

Alpha
.860

Item-Total Statistics
Cronbach's
Scale Mean if
Item Deleted

Scale Variance if Corrected ItemItem Deleted

Total Correlation

Alpha if Item
Deleted

sup3

20.31

21.391

.728

.819

sup4

19.70

24.163

.563

.858

sup5

20.06

21.343

.736

.817

sup6

19.80

21.340

.699

.826

sup7

20.44

20.529

.674

.835

44

Vi thang o thng tin

Bn c nhn xt g?
Reliability Statistics
Cronbach's
Alpha

N of Items
.835

Item-Total Statistics
Cronbach's
Scale Mean if
Item Deleted

Scale Variance if Corrected ItemItem Deleted

Total Correlation

Alpha if Item
Deleted

prom1

13.57

14.758

.696

.778

prom2

13.73

15.726

.707

.774

prom3

13.11

16.826

.587

.825

prom4

13.29

15.897

.677

.787

V tng t vi thang o cho cc khi nim khc

45

 tin cy tng hp, tng phng sai trch? bn hy tnh bng Excel

Bn hy tnh tin cy tng hp, tng phng sai trch cho cc khi nim khc nh!

46

Gi tr phn bit?

Cch d nht l h s tng quan gia cc khi nim thnh phn ca mt khi nim ln phi
<0.9 th mi t c gi tr phn bit.
Mt cch khc, cn thn hn, bn kim nh xem h s tng quan c khc bit so vi 1 hay
khng (lm bng Excel)
n=200
Correlations: (Group number 1 - Default model)

<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->
<-->

thangtien
dongnghiep
luong_thuong
baohiem
congviec
trungthanh
dongnghiep
luong_thuong
baohiem
congviec
trungthanh
luong_thuong
baohiem
congviec
trungthanh
baohiem
congviec
trungthanh
baohiem
trungthanh
trungthanh

1.972

SE=
SQRT((1-r2)/(n-2))

r
lanhdao
lanhdao
lanhdao
lanhdao
lanhdao
lanhdao
thangtien
thangtien
thangtien
thangtien
thangtien
dongnghiep
dongnghiep
dongnghiep
dongnghiep
luong_thuong
luong_thuong
luong_thuong
congviec
baohiem
congviec

TINV(0.05,198)

Estimate
0.661
0.48
0.478
0.276
0.572
0.628
0.454
0.511
0.21
0.675
0.658
0.318
0.238
0.523
0.439
0.262
0.426
0.699
0.233
0.171
0.588

0.053
0.062
0.062
0.068
0.058
0.055
0.063
0.061
0.069
0.052
0.054
0.067
0.069
0.061
0.064
0.069
0.064
0.051
0.069
0.070
0.057

CR=
(1-r)/SE
6.36
8.34
8.36
10.60
7.34
6.73
8.62
8.00
11.37
6.20
6.39
10.12
11.04
7.87
8.79
10.76
8.93
5.92
11.10
11.84
7.17

P-value
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000

Hm tnh P-value trong Excel trn l TDIST(|CR|, n-2, 2)

Bn s thy P-value u <0.05 nn H s tng quan ca tng cp khi nim khc bit so vi
1 tin cy 95% (M l h s tng quan th bn c th suy ra tip rng n < 1). Do ,
cc khi nim t c gi tr phn bit.

47

4. M HNH CU TRC (SEM)

Anh ch hy lu li file trn vi 1 tn khc, v d l SEM JDI Loy 1.amw

Sau v li s nh sau. Ch elip ca khi nim trung thnh c 1 sai s e24 (bn c th
k hiu khc, v d l z1 cng c). Mi mt bin ph thuc trong m hnh cu trc phi c
1 sai s.
Hnh 4.1

e1
e2
e3
e4
e5
e6
e7
e8
e9
e10
e11
e12
e13
e14
e15
e16
e17
e18
e19
e20

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

sup3
sup4
lanh dao

sup5
sup6
1

sup7
prom1
prom2

thang tien

e23

e22

e21

prom3
loy3 loy2 loy1

prom4
cow1

dong nghiep

cow2
cow3

trung thanh
1

pay4
luong thuong

pay5
ben4

e24

ben2
bao hiem
ben3

work1
cong viec

work2
work3

Tnh ton bng cch bm vo nt

, bn s c kt qu

48

Hnh 4.2
.63

e1

sup3

.39

e2

sup4

e3

sup5

e4

sup6

e5

sup7

e6

prom1

.64
.80

.58

Chi-square= \chi-square ; df= 209 ; P= .000 ;

Chi-square/df = 1.929 ;
GFI= .858 ; TLI = .909 ; CFI = .925 ;
RMSEA= .068

.75
.76
.66

.58

prom2

e8

prom3

e10

lanh dao

.56

e7

e9

.79
.62

.65

.76
.20

.81

.48

thang tien

.41

e11

cow2

e12

cow3

e13

pay4

e14

pay5

e15

ben4

e16

ben2

e17

ben3

e18

work1

e19

work2

e20

work3

.48
.19

.45

.85

.76

.69

.51.06
.67

dong nghiep
.32

.66

.81
.70

.66

.57

trung thanh

.45
-.09

.83
.71

.98

.48

.21

.80

.43 .84

e21

loy3 loy2 loy1

.28

.66
.63 .81

e22
.58

.60 .64
.78
prom4.72

cow1

e23

e24

.52

.26

.66

.14

.24

luong thuong

.99
.86
.55

.43

bao hiem
.93
.74

.23

.65
.63 .80

cong viec

.79

Nghin cu ca Dung & Nam (2005) ch ra rng cc thnh phn ca s tho mn ca nhn
vin vi cng vic nh hng n lng trung thnh, v iu ny cng c kim nh bi
nhiu tc gi khc nh Yousef(2000), Schepker (2001), Jernigan & ctg (20002). V vy, m
hnh nghin cu ca bn d nh c th nh Hnh 4.1 v kt qu c lng ln u tin nh
Hnh 4.2

49

Kt qu dng bng s liu

Regression Weights: (Group number 1 - Default model)

Estimate S.E. C.R.

P
trungthanh <--- lanhdao
.212 .101 2.096 .036
trungthanh <--- thangtien
.204 .119 1.713 .087
trungthanh <--- dongnghiep
.068 .090 .755 .450
trungthanh <--- luong_thuong
.495 .099 4.983 ***
trungthanh <--- baohiem
-.073 .050 -1.470 .142
trungthanh <--- congviec
.142 .104 1.372 .170

ng nghip khng c
ngha thng k tin
Label
cy 90% v P-value >0.1

Khi nim no khng c ngha thng k tin cy 90% ta s loi ln lt ra khi m

hnh. (D nhin l tm c m hnh tt, bn c th phi th nhiu m hnh khc nhau)
Lu li file SEM JDI Loy 1.amw gi li s (khi cn, c th s dng li)
Lu file SEM JDI Loy 1.amw vi tn khc SEM JDI Loy 2.amw

Hnh 4.3
.62

e1

sup3

e2

sup4

e3

sup5

e4

sup6

e5

sup7

.39

.79
.62

.64
.80

lanh dao

.57
.58

prom1

e7

prom2

e8

prom3

e9

prom4

.65

e23

e22
.57

.75
.76

.23

.81

.27

thang tien

.42
.59 .65
.77

.67

loy3 loy2 loy1

.76

.77

e21
.48

.66

.59

e6

Chi-square= 188.523 ; df= 84 ; P= .000 ;

Chi-square/df = 2.244 ;
GFI= .894 ; TLI = .912 ; CFI = .929 ;
RMSEA= .079

.70

.82
.64

trung thanh

.48

e24
.52

.45

.67

e13

pay4

e14

pay5

e15

ben4

.82
.74
.41 .86

luong thuong

.64

50

Regression Weights: (Group number 1 - Default model)

trungthanh <--- lanhdao

trungthanh <--- thangtien
trungthanh <--- luong_thuong
sup7
<--- lanhdao
sup6
<--- lanhdao
sup5
<--- lanhdao
sup4
<--- lanhdao
sup3
<--- lanhdao
prom4
<--- thangtien
prom3
<--- thangtien
prom2
<--- thangtien
prom1
<--- thangtien
pay4
<--- luong_thuong
ben4
<--- luong_thuong
pay5
<--- luong_thuong
loy2
<--- trungthanh
loy1
<--- trungthanh
loy3
<--- trungthanh

Estimate S.E. C.R.

P
.241 .098 2.463 .014
.291 .106 2.748 .006
.496 .102 4.886 ***
1.000
.898 .085 10.580 ***
.919 .082 11.271 ***
.648 .076 8.569 ***
.911 .082 11.126 ***
1.000
.844 .095 8.886 ***
1.039 .094 11.100 ***
1.089 .103 10.571 ***
1.146 .126 9.120 ***
1.000
1.186 .128 9.267 ***
.994 .108 9.245 ***
1.014 .095 10.653 ***
1.000

P-value ca lnh
o, thng tin,
lng thng u
<0.05. Nn cc bin
ny u thc s nh
hng n lng
trung thnh

V, cc trng s cha
chun ho mang du
dng cng cho thy
cc bin lnh o,
thng tin, lng
thng nh hng t
l thun n trung
thnh

Standardized Regression Weights: (Group number 1 - Default model)

trungthanh <--trungthanh <--trungthanh <--sup7

<--sup6
<--sup5
<--sup4
<--sup3
<--prom4
<--prom3
<--prom2
<--prom1
<--pay4
<--ben4
<--pay5
<--loy2
<--loy1
<--loy3
<---

lanhdao
thangtien
luong_thuong
lanhdao
lanhdao
lanhdao
lanhdao
lanhdao
thangtien
thangtien
thangtien
thangtien
luong_thuong
luong_thuong
luong_thuong
trungthanh
trungthanh
trungthanh

Estimate
.232
.273
.446
.763
.754
.800
.621
.790
.769
.651
.808
.767
.820
.644
.860
.696
.818
.758

- Cc trng s chun ho u
dng, nn cc bin lnh o, thng
tin, lng thng nh hng thun
chiu n trung thnh
- lng thng tc ng mnh nht
n lng trung thnh v tr tuyt i
ca trng s chun ho l 0.446,
ln nht trong 3 s 0.446, 0.273,
0.232.

51

Squared Multiple Correlations: (Group number 1 - Default model)

trungthanh

Estimate
.636

Modification Indices (Group number 1 - Default model)

Covariances: (Group number 1 - Default model)

M.I. Par Change

e22 <--> luong_thuong 4.741
.232
e22 <--> lanhdao
4.312
-.215
e13 <--> thangtien
9.951
-.243
e15 <--> thangtien
6.609
.264
e6 <--> lanhdao
4.899
-.196
-.330
e6 <--> e13
13.166
e6 <--> e15
5.793
.290
e7 <--> e6
7.529
.234
e9 <--> lanhdao
5.466
.189
e9 <--> e14
7.447
.217
e9 <--> e7
6.705
-.202
e1 <--> luong_thuong 10.649
-.238
e1 <--> thangtien
5.395
.160
e1 <--> e22
5.827
-.229
e1 <--> e9
4.866
.164
e2 <--> luong_thuong 4.322
.164
e2 <--> e7
6.723
-.198
e5 <--> luong_thuong 24.137
.421
e5 <--> e14
7.505
.223
e5 <--> e2
4.470
-.173

M hnh c Chi-square cng nh cng

tt. Ct MI gi cho bn xem nn mc
mi tn hai u vo cp sai s no
c th ci thin Chi-square. Nu mc
gia e6 v e13 th hip phng sai gia
chng s l -0.33 v Chi-square s
gim mt lng l 13.166 so vi Chisquare ca m hnh ban u. Khi
GFI, TLI, CFI cng s c ci
thin. Khi thm 1 tham s, nu Chisquare gim khong t 4 tr ln th gi
l c s thay i ng k. Bn nn chn
nhng trng hp m c MI ln u
tin mc trc. Sau , chy li m
hnh, v xem nn mc tip gia hai sai
s no tip tc ci thin
Tuy nhin, mt m hnh khng nn
mc qu nhiu mi tn hai u gia cc
cp sai s!

Bn c nhn xt g v m hnh trn?

- M hnh Hnh 4.3 c th ni l ph hp vi d liu th trng v Chi-square=2.24 (<3),
TLI=0.912, CFI=0.929 (>0.9); RMSEA=0.079 (<0.08). Tuy nhin cc ch tiu ny cha phi
tt lm!

-Xem bng Regression Weights, ta thy c ba khi nim Lnh o, thng tin, lng thng
u nh hng thun chiu n trung thnh v c ngha thng k.
-Xem bng Standardized Regression Weights, ta thy cc trng s chun ho. Tr tuyt i
ca cc trng s ny cng ln th khi nim c lp tng ng tc ng cng mnh n khi
nim ph thuc. Trng hp ny lng thng l yu t tc ng mnh nht (trng s hi
quy chun ho bng 0.446); Mnh nh l thng tin (trng s hi quy chun ho l
0.273) v cui cng l lnh o (trng s hi quy chun ho l 0.232)
-Ba khi nim Lnh o, thng tin, lng thng gii thch c 63.6% bin thin ca trung
thnh.

52

Lm sao m hnh SEM tt hn?

- Da vo ch tiu MI, bn s c th ci thin m hnh tt hn. Hy xem m hnh Hnh 4.4

Hnh 4.4
.63

e1

sup3

e2

sup4

e3

sup5

e4

sup6

e5
e6

.39

lanh dao

.57

sup7
prom1

e7

prom2

e8

prom3

e9

prom4

.63

e23

e22
.58

.75
.76

.23

.80

.28

thang tien

.41
.71 .64
.84

.66

loy3 loy2 loy1

.76

.68

e21
.48

.68

.46

.31

-.33

.79
.62

.64
.80

.58

Chi-square= 164.976 ; df= 81 ; P= .000 ;

Chi-square/df = 2.037 ;
GFI= .908 ; TLI = .927 ; CFI = .943 ;
RMSEA= .072

.70

.81
.63

trung thanh

.48

e24
.54

-.20

.44

.67

e13

pay4

e14

pay5

e15

ben4

.82
.75
.40 .87

luong thuong

.64

Bn hy th so snh cc ch tiu nh gi mc ph hp ca m hnh Hnh 4.3 v m

hnh Hnh 4.4?

53

5. KIM NH BOOTSTRAP
Cc h s hi quy trong m hnh mc 4 c c c lng tt khng? Lm sao nh
gi c mc tin cy ca cc c lng trong m hnh nghin cu?

nh gi tin cy ca cc c lng, trong cc phng php nghin cu nh lng

bng phng php ly mu, thng thng chng ta phi chia mu ra lm hai mu con. Mt
na dng c lng cc tham s m hnh, v mt na dng nh gi li. Cch khc l
lp li nghin cu bng mt mu khc. Hai cch trn y thng khng thc t v phng
php cu trc thng i hi mu ln nn vic lm ny tn km nhiu thi gian v chi ph
(Anderson & Gerbing, 1988) 1 . Trong nhng trng hp nh vy th Bootstrap l phng
php ph hp thay th (Schumacker & Lomax, 2006). Bootstrap l phng php ly mu
lp li c thay th, trong mu ban u ng vai tr l m ng.
V d, t m ng (mu ban u) c 200 quan st. Vi d liu ca mu ban u, ta s tnh
ton c cc c lng (cc trng s hi quy) nh mc 4. Trong Bootstrap, my tnh s
chn ra nhng mu khc v d 500 mu khc chng hn theo phng php lp li, v c thay
th. V mi mt mu lp li c th c cng s quan st vi s quan st ban u: 200. V theo
bn nh vy th trong mt mu m Bootstrap chn ra, c khi no c 2 hay nhiu quan st
trng nhau khng? D nhin l hon ton c th c iu xy ra. V t 500 mu ny c th
tnh c trung bnh ca cc c lng (cc trng s hi quy). Hiu s gia trung bnh cc
c lng t Bootstrap v cc c lng ban u gi l chch. Tr tuyt i cc chch
ny cng nh, cng khng c ngha thng k cng tt.
Khai bo tnh ton Bootstrap?
View\ Analysis Properties

Hnh 5.1

Chn nt

tnh ton.

By gi, ngoi cc c lng bnh thng, s c thm cc c lng bng Bootstrap

1

Trch t Th & Trang (2008, 56)

54

Hnh 5.2

Hnh5.3

Khi ang chn chut ti Standardized Regression Weights, bn hy nhp chut vo mc

Bootstrap standard errors.

55

S c kt qu nh Hnh 5.4
Hnh 5. 4

Parameter

trungthanh
trungthanh
trungthanh

<<<-

luong_thuong
lanhdao
thangtien

Estimate
0.436
0.229
0.278

SE
0.105
0.125
0.132

SE-SE
0.003
0.004
0.004

Mean
0.432
0.236
0.274

Bias
-0.004
0.007
-0.004

SEBias
0.005
0.006
0.006

CR
-0.800
1.167
-0.667

Ct Estimate cho thy c lng bnh thng vi phng php ML, Cc ct cn li c

tnh t phng php Bootstrap. Ct Mean cho ta trung bnh cc c lng Bootstrap. Bias
( chnh) bng ct Mean tr ct Estimate. Ct CR t tnh bng Excel bng cch ly ct
Mean chia cho ct SE-Bias. Tr tuyt i CR rt nh so vi 2 nn c th ni l chch l rt
nh, khng c ngha thng k tin cy 95%.
V nh vy, ta c th kt lun l cc c lng trong m hnh (nh Hnh 4.4) c th tin cy
c.

56

6. PHN TCH CU TRC A NHM

Gi s bn mun xem xt s nh hng gia lnh o, thng tin, lng thng n lng
trung thnh c khc bit gia nhm nhn vin nam v nhn vin n hay khng th phi lm
th no?
Ta s thc hin phn tch cu trc a nhm
Qun l cc nhm?

Bn ang m file SEM phan tich da nhom jdi loy mh1.amw

Hnh 6.1

Nu bn chn File\Data file th s thy nh Hnh 6.2.

Hnh 6.2 ny cho thy file d liu s dng trong phn tch l khao sat nhan vien.sav, v ton
b cc quan st ang c t chc thnh 1 nhm. Bn mun tch thnh 2 nhm l nhm nam,
v nhm n.
Click chut vo nt Grouping Variable Chn bin gioitinh

57

Hnh 6.2

Hnh 6.3

58

Hnh 6.4

Sau khi chn xong bin trong mc Grouping Variable, Nhp tip nt Group Value xc
nh gi tr phn nhm. Chn m 1 (tng ng vi nhm Nam) v OK
Hnh 6.5

Ca s th hin tn cc nhm.

C mt khung nh th hin cc nhm. V by gi mi ch c nhm 1. Vi tn l Group

number 1.

59

i tn Group, to Group mi?

Chn Analyze\Manage Group Hp thoi nh Hnh 6.7 xut hin. Bn c th thay i ch
Group number thnh ch nhom nam. Sau bm New to nhm mi tn l nhom nu.

Hnh 6.6

Hnh 6.7

Hnh 6.8

a d liu u vo cho Nhom nu?

Hy lm li thao tc File\Data files

Bn s thy c sn tn Nhom nu mc group name; Chn Nhom nu. Sau xc nh File
Name cho nhm ny, xc nh bin phn nhm l gioitinh, v gi tr phn nhm l 2 (Hnh
6.9)

60

Hnh 6.9

Chn OK
a vo Title ghi ch cc m hnh trong phn tch a nhm?

Chn Nt
, r chut n v tr thch hp
G vo cc dng Macro nh Hnh 6.10
Hnh 6.10

61

Bn hy th nhp vo tn cc nhm tng ng trong ca s th hin tn nhm. S ng

dn bn phi s hin ra tng ng. V sau ny kt qu nu c tnh ton cng s c
hin ra tng ng vi nhm m bn chn. (Xem Hnh 6.11)
Hnh 6.11

Nhp vo tn nhm
tng ng

62

Hnh 6.12

e1
e2
e3
e4
e5
e6
e7
e8
e9

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

sup3
sup4
lanh dao

sup5

e23

e22

e21

sup6
loy3 loy2 loy1

sup7
prom1

prom2

thang tien

prom3
prom4

trung thanh
1

e24

e13
e14
e15

1
1
1

pay4
luong thuong

pay5
ben4

Phan tich da nhom

Nhom nu
Model Specification

63

Hnh 6.13

e1
e2
e3
e4
e5
e6
e7
e8
e9

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

sup3
sup4
lanh dao

sup5

e23

e22

e21

sup6
loy3 loy2 loy1

sup7
prom1

prom2

thang tien

prom3
prom4

trung thanh
1

e24

e13
e14
e15

1
1
1

pay4
luong thuong

pay5
ben4

Phan tich da nhom

Nhom nam
Model Specification
Phng php chung trong phn tch cu trc a nhm l g?

Phng php phn tch cu trc a nhm so snh m hnh nghin cu theo cc nhm no
ca mt bin nh tnh. Chng hn nh: bn c th so snh m hnh th hin tc ng ca
lnh o, thng tin, lng thng n lng trung thnh theo nhm gii tnh (nam/ n), theo
nhm tui (nhm tr / khng tr), nhm ngnh (ti chnh ngn hng/ khng phi ti chnh
ngn hng) Trong v d ang xt, so snh m hnh nghin cu gia nhm nam v nhm
n.
u tin ngi ta s lm 2 m hnh: M hnh kh bin, v m hnh bt bin (tng phn).
Trong m hnh kh bin, cc tham s c lng trong tng m hnh ca cc nhm khng b
rng buc (Xem Hnh 6.14). Trong m hnh bt bin, thnh phn o lng khng b rng
buc nhng cc mi quan h gia cc khi nim trong m hnh nghin cu c rng buc
c gi tr nh nhau cho tt c cc nhm (Xem Hnh 6.15)
64

Hnh 6.14 M hnh kh bin

Nhm Nam
lanh dao

thang tien

lanh dao

1Nam
2Nam

trung thanh

Nhm N
1N

2N
thang tien

3Nam

trung thanh

3N
luong thuong

luong thuong

Hnh 6.15 M hnh bt bin

lanh dao

Nhm Nam
1Nam

2Nam
thang tien

lanh dao

trung thanh

Nhm N
1N = 1Nam

2N = 2Nam
thang tien

trung thanh

3Nam
luong thuong

luong thuong

3N = 3Nam

Kim nh Chi-square c s dng so snh gia 2 m hnh. Nu kim nh Chi-square

cho thy gia m hnh bt bin v m hnh kh bin khng c s khc bit (P-value > 0.05)
th m hnh bt bin s c chn (c bc t do cao hn). Ngc li, nu s khc bit Chisquare l c ngha gia hai m hnh (P-value<0.05) th chn m hnh kh bin (c tng
thch cao hn). (Xem Th & Trang, 2008, 208).
By gi chng ta bt u c lng m hnh kh bin, m hnh bt bin, v so snh gia 2
m hnh.
Bc 1. c lng m hnh kh bin
Files s ng dn m bn ang m l Sem phan tich da nhom jdi loy mh1.amw
D liu m bn s dng cho n cng c tch thnh hai nhm Nhm nam, v Nhm n.
Hnh 6.12, Hnh 6.13 l 2 s ca nhm nam v nhm n th hin M hnh kh bin

65

Trc khi tnh ton, bn hy chn Views\ Analysis Properties v nh du chn nh sau
trong tab Output. Tab Estimation bn hy mc nh l phng php Maximum Likelihood,
Tab Bootstrap bn khng cn nh du chn g c.
Hnh 6.16

Bn ch cn nhp nt

l c th tnh ton.

66

Hnh 6.17

e1
e2
e3
e4

.86
1
.93
1
.73
1
.98
1
.86
1

sup4

sup6

prom1

e7
e8
e9

1.84
1
.81
1
.95
1

.03

prom3
prom4

.41

1.04

e22

e21

loy3 loy2 loy1

1.00

1.34

thang tien

.87

.00

1.09

1.15

trung thanh

.83
1.00

1
.44

.38

.72

1.03

e23

.90

1.21

1.92

e24
pay4

e14

pay5

e15

ben4

1.39
1

lanh dao

.77
1.00

prom2

e13

.52
1

1.45

sup5

e6

.38
1

.86
.74
.86

sup7

.08

-.15

sup3

e5 1.41
1

Chi-square= 275.655 ; df= 162 ; P= .000 ;

Chi-square/df = 1.702 ;
GFI= .859 ; TLI = .906 ; CFI = .927 ;
RMSEA= .060
1.52

1.96

.93

luong thuong
1.00
1.00

Phan tich da nhom

Nhom nam
Unstandardized estimates

Hnh 6.18
e1
e2
e3
e4

.57
1
.99
1
.70
1
.76
1
1.26
1

e8
e9

.97
1
.43
1
.82
1

sup6

prom2
prom3
prom4

e23 e22

1.05
1.00

.09

.78

thang tien

.42

.55

.69
1.00
.74

.51

loy3 loy2 loy1

1.00

2.03

e21

1.15

.75

.60

.89

.88

trung thanh
1
.67

e24
pay4

e14

pay5

e15

ben4

2.19
1

1.45

e13

.52
1

.74

lanh dao

sup5

prom1

.95
1

.98
.56
.96

e6
e7

-.30

sup4

sup7

.47

-.38

sup3

e5 1.58
1

Chi-square= 275.655 ; df= 162 ; P= .000 ;

Chi-square/df = 1.702 ;
GFI= .859 ; TLI = .906 ; CFI = .927 ;
RMSEA= .060
1.43

1.59

.63

luong thuong
1.72
1.00

Phan tich da nhom

Nhom nu
Unstandardized estimates
67

Chn nt View Text th hin ca s Amos Output

Hnh 6.19

Hnh 6.20

68

Bc 2. c lng m hnh bt bin

Bn hy lu li file s Sem phan tich da nhom jdi loy mh1.amw. Sau lu li (Save as)
vi mt tn khc Sem phan tich da nhom jdi loy mh2.amw

Ta s xy dng m hnh bt bin (tng phn)

Bm nt

bt u chn i tng no

Chn mi tn 1 chiu t khi nim lnh o hng n khi nim trung thnh, Click phi
chut, Chn Object Properties (Hnh 6.21)
Hnh 6.21

Hp thoi Object Properties xut hin, Chn th Parameters. Nhp Ch Beta1 (bn c th
nhp ch khc cng c) vo Regression weight, v nh du chn All groups rng
buc h s ng dn trn mi tn ny bng nhau nhm nam v nhm n v bng Beta1.
(Hnh 6.22)
Bn hy nhp chut tng t vo cc mi tn t thng tin n trung thnh, t lng thng
n trung thnh, v nhp Beta2, Beta3. (ch nh nh du chn All groups)
V by gi, S nh Hnh 6.23. l m hnh bt bin

69

Hnh 6.22

Hnh 6.23

e1
e2
e3
e4
e5
e6
e7
e8
e9
e13
e14
e15

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

sup3
sup4
lanh dao

sup5

e23

e22

e21

sup6
1

Beta1

sup7
prom1

prom2

thang tien

Beta2

prom3
prom4

loy3 loy2 loy1

trung thanh
1

1
Beta3

e24
pay4
luong thuong

pay5
ben4

Phan tich da nhom

Nhom nam
Model Specification
70

Lu li file s , nhp nt
Hnh 6.24
e1
e2
e3
e4

.84
1
.92
1
.73
1
.99
1
.87
1

-.01

e8
e9

1.73
1
.94
1
.92
1

.01

sup6

1.11

thang tien

e15

ben4

e2
e3
e4

.70
1
.75
1
1.26
1

e5 1.64
e6
.47

e7
-.42

e8
e9

-.29

.94
1
1.00
1
.34
1
.81
1

sup4

loy3 loy2 loy1

.97

1.03

trung thanh
1
.55

.44

luong thuong
1.04
1.00

Phan tich da nhom

Nhom nam
Unstandardized estimates
Chi-square= 285.837 ; df= 165 ; P= .000 ;
Chi-square/df = 1.732 ;
GFI= .854 ; TLI = .901 ; CFI = .923 ;
RMSEA= .061
1.44

.97
.56

.78

lanh dao

sup5
sup6

1.05
1.00

.23

sup7
prom1
prom2
prom3
prom4

1.82

.96

.96

1.46

e22

e21

loy3 loy2 loy1

1.18
.74

1.00

2.15

.72

thang tien

.47

.35

.66
1.00
.85

.44

.56

e23

.93

.93

trung thanh
1
.68

e24
pay4

e14

pay5

e15

ben4

2.18
1

.35

.64

sup3

e13

.55
1

e21

.96
1.00

Hnh 6.25

.99
1

e22

e24
pay5

e1

.83

1.06

e23

1.00

1.11

1.26

prom4

e14

.58
1

.23

1.97

.85

prom3

pay4

1.44
1

.77
1.00

prom2

e13

.53
1

lanh dao

sup5

prom1

e7

1.43

.86

e6

.57
1

.87
.75

sup4

sup7

.20

Chi-square= 285.837 ; df= 165 ; P= .000 ;

Chi-square/df = 1.732 ;
GFI= .854 ; TLI = .901 ; CFI = .923 ;
RMSEA= .061
1.50

sup3

e5 1.48
1

l c th tnh ton. Kt qu nh sau

1.41

.80

luong thuong
1.52
1.00

Phan tich da nhom

Nhom nu
Unstandardized estimates

71

Hnh 6.26 Trng s hi quy trong m hnh bt bin ca nhm nam

Hnh 6.27

Trong Hnh 6.24, 6.25; Hnh 6.26, 6.27; bn c thy cc h s Beta1, Beta2, Beta3 c 2
nhm nam va n u bng nhau khng? Nhn vo cc kt qu tnh ton dng bng s liu,
bn c nhn nh g v mi quan h gia lng thng, lnh o, thng tin vi trung thnh?
Cc mi quan h ny u c ngha thng k tin cy 95%.

72

Bc 3. So snh s khc bit gia hai m hnh

By gi, bn chn m hnh kh bin, hay m hnh bt bin? Ta i kim tra gi thuyt sau
Ho: Chi-square ca m hnh kh bin bng Chi-square ca m hnh bt bin
H1: C s khc bit v Chi-square gia m hnh kh bin v m hnh bt bin
Bn hy m file Excel.
Hnh 6.28

Phn trn cp: Kim nh Chi-square c s dng so snh gia 2 m hnh. Nu

kim nh Chi-square cho thy gia m hnh bt bin v m hnh kh bin khng c s khc
bit (P-value > 0.05) th m hnh bt bin s c chn (c bc t do cao hn). Ngc li,
nu s khc bit Chi-square l c ngha gia hai m hnh (P-value<0.05) th chn m hnh
kh bin (c tng thch cao hn). (Xem Th & Trang, 2008, 208).
Nh vy, P-value = 0.017 (<0.05) nn bn bc b gi thuyt Ho. Chp nhn H1. Ni cch
khc l C s khc bit v Chi-square gia m hnh kh bin, v m hnh bt bin. V bn s
chn m hnh kh bin.
Khi chn m hnh kh bin, ta c th a ra kt lun l C s khc bit trong mi nh hng
gia lnh o, thng tin, lng thng n lng trung thnh gia nhm nhn vin nam, v
nhm nhn vin n.
Trong Hnh 6.19, bn thy rng vi nhm nam, yu t thng tin khng tc ng n lng
trung thnh v P-value = 0.978 (>0.05). Nhng vi nhm n (Hnh 6.20) yu t thng tin li
tc ng n lng trung thnh (P-value<0.05). Ta cng thy rng, vi nhm nam, yu t lnh
o c nh hng n lng trung thnh (P-value=0.002), nhng vi nhm n th khng (Pvalue=0.521).

73

LI KT
SEM rt hu ch cho cc nghin cu thuc lnh vc khoa hc hnh vi ni chung (n
cng hu ch vi nhiu lnh vc khc), v AMOS cng rt d s dng. SEM vi AMOS
khng qu phc tp khi bn tip cn di gc ng dng. Nu bn hiu c hi quy
trong kinh t lng truyn thng th SEM cng d dng vy thi. Bi ging ny trnh by
nhng vn quan trng nht (nhiu ngi nghin cu thng s dng) trong thc hnh
SEM vi AMOS, cc vn khc bn c th t hc thm. iu quan trng hn c l hy p
dng SEM vo nghin cu ca bn, vo cng vic ca bn sao cho hiu qu (khi cn)
Bui hc hm nay l bui hc cui ca lp bi dng c nhn ti nng nn ti mun
ni vi iu vi cc bn. Qua s gp g vi cc anh ch, cc bn cu sinh vin, ti hiu rng:
d ngh nghip sau ny ca bn c l ngi lm nghin cu, l ngi hoch nh chnh sch,
l doanh nhn, l nhn vin cc cng ty/t chc th nhng iu bn hc trong lp hc
ny v trong cc mn phng php nghin cu, phn tch d liu v d bo (m cc ging
vin ca kho hc ny c dp tham gia hng dn cc bn), , nhng iu bn tri
nghim trong qu trnh lm cc ti NCKH sinh vin lun c ch vi bn. Lm NCKH
sinh vin l dp bn gn l thuyt vi thc t, t hc nhiu hn, c ng lc hn trong hc
tp Qua qu trnh y bn cng trng thnh hn, cng t c nhng iu m bn ang
kht khao, ang mun khm ph; v chc chn bn s c thm nhng k nim tht p ca
mt thi sinh vin. Cng ng my mc khi ch p dng cc nghin cu nh lng, cng
ng qu ch quan khi a ra cc quyt nh ch da vo cc nghin cu nh lng. Nghin
cu ca bn c tham kho cc tp ch quc t v t c c cc chun mc quc t trong
nghin cu nhng n kh th c sc sng, v nhng gi chnh sch hp l khi bn khng
su st, c xt vi ngi dn, vi doanh nghip, vi th trng, vi cc nh hoch nh chnh
sch v thiu mt ci tm, mt dng kh ca ngi lm nghin cu.
Trong nm hc ny, nm ti, v sau ny, cc ging vin chng ti lun hy vng cc
bn s l nhng ng lc cho cc ngnh khoa hc kinh t-qun tr cn rt non tr v cn
nhiu iu khm ph Vit Nam. Bi v, chng ti thy mt nhm sinh vin ngnh
thm nh gi ang lm mt ti v M hnh thm nh gi tr tng thm ca thng hiu
xanh, v thm nh gi cc m ti nguyn; mt s bn sinh vin ngnh k hoch u t ang
kho st cc doanh nghip v c lng vn l chn thu nhm cung cp d liu u vo
cho cc cng ty t vn d n, nhng ngi thm nh d n; hay ti p dng m hnh
TGARCH cho th trng chng khon, th trng vng VN; mt nhm bn lp Thm
nh gi, bt ng sn ang nghin cu v Bong bng th trng bt ng sn VN
Nhiu thanh nin Trung Quc (TQ) hin nay ang c mt phng chm l lm g
ngi ta phi knh n TQ, TQ phi l nc b ch ton cu hay tng t nh vy! Trong
dp i Sapa cng tc, tin gh qua du lch mt a phng bn kia bin gii TQ, anh
hng dn vin ch ti mt biu trng ca Trung Quc rt cao (chng 15m) v gii thch
l mt bn tay nm ly c tri t! Rt nhiu khch du lch Vit Nam n chp hnh bn cnh
biu trng y, cn mt vi thy gio trong on th khng, nht quyt khng! Bn c bit
ngi TQ mun ni iu g vi th gii qua biu trng y khng? Ti khng bit iu suy
ngh ca nhiu thanh nin TQ (c th xut pht t mt s lnh o TQ) c tt hay khng;
nhng ti mong bn c mt tnh yu t nc, yu con ngi, yu ho bnh ch khng mun
cc bn c nhng suy ngh dn tc hp hi, hay suy ngh rng mt dn tc c th gim chn
ln cc dn tc khc nh nhiu bn thanh nin TQ y! Hy lm iu g c ch cho c cng
ng, cho con ngi ni chung v c nhiu bn b quc t yu mn, qu trng!
Xin chn thnh cm n cc bn tham gia kho hc! Cc thy c gio chng ti cm
thy rt vui, rt t ho khi c trao i, hng dn cc bn trong thi gian qua. V chng ti
cng mong mi rng cc bn sinh vin s cm thy t tin, t ho khi tng hc tp mt
trng i hc ca Vit Nam (vi cc bn, l Trng H Kinh t TPHCM) d sau ny bn
c hc tp thm, v lm vic bt c ni u trn tri t ny. Chc bn thnh cng!

74

Ti liu tham kho

Anderson, J.C & Gerbing, D.W (1988) Structural Equation Modeling in practice: a review
and recommended two-step approach, Psychological Bulletin, 103 (3): 411-423
Arbuckle, J.L (2008), AMOS 16 User's Guide, SPSS Inc
Albright, J.J (2006), Confirmatory Factor Analysis using AMOS, LISREL, AND MPLUS,
The Trustees of Indiana University, www.indiana.edu/~statmath
Bentler, P. M. & Bonett, D. G., (1980), Significane tests and goodness of fit in the analysis
of covariance structures, Psychological Bulletin, Vol 80, 600
Carmines, E. & McIver, J., (1981) Analyzing models with unobserved variables: analysis of
covariance structures, Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, 65 115
Trn Th Kim Dung, Trn Hoi Nam (2005), Nhu cu, s tho mn ca nhn vin v mc
gn kt i vi t chc, ti NCKH Cp b, Trng H Kinh t TPHCM
Gerbing W.D. & Anderson, J.C (1988), An update paradigm for scale development
incorporating unidimensionality and its assessment, Journal of Marketing Research, 25(2):
186-192
Hair, Anderson, Tatham, Black (1998), Multivariate Data Analysis, Prentical-Hall
International, Inc.
Hair, Black, Babin, Anderson, Tatham (2006), Multivariate Data Analysis, Prentical-Hall
International, Inc.
Nguyn Trng Hoi (2001), M hnh ho v d bo chui thi gian trong kinh doanh &
kinh t, NXB HQG TPHCM
Jabnoun & Al-Tamimi (2003) Measuring perceived service quality at UAE commercial
banks, International Journal of Quality and Reliability Management, (20), 4
Nunnally & Burnstein (1994) Pschychometric Theory, 3rd edition, NewYork, McGraw
Hill
Pont, M., Mc Quilken, L. (2002), Testing the Fit of the BANKSERV Model BANKPERF,
ANZMAC 2002 Conference Proccedings, Deankin University
Steiger, J, H., (1990), Structural Modeling Evaluation and Modification: An Interval
Estimation Approach, Multivariate Behavioral Research, Vol.25 , 176
Schumacker, R. E. & Lomax, R. G. (2006), A beginners guide to Structural Equation
Modeling, Lawrence Erlbaum associates, publisher, London
Nguyn nh Th, Nguyn Th Mai Trang (2008), Nghin cu khoa hc marketing - ng
dng m hnh cu trc tuyn tnh SEM, NXB HQG TPHCM
Hong Trng, Chu Nguyn Mng Ngc (2008) Phn tch d liu nghin cu vi SPSS,
NXB Hng c

75

Ph lc 1

PHIEU KHAO SAT VE MC O THOA MAN CUA NHAN VIEN

PHAN I. Anh/ch vui long cho biet mc o ong y cua mnh ve cac phat bieu di ay. oi vi
moi phat bieu, anh ch hay cach anh dau X vao mot trong cac cac con so t 1 en 7; theo quy c
la 1:hoan toan khong ong y,.. , 4:phan van, , 7:hoan toan ong y; So cang ln la anh/ch cang
ong y.
Ma so

Cac phat bieu

Mc o ong y

work 1
work 2
work 3
work 4

Cong viec cho phep anh/ch s dung tot cac nang lc ca nhan
Cong viec rat thu v
Cong viec co nhieu thach thc
Khi cong viec hoan thanh tot, se c cong ty rat hoan nghenh

1
1
1
1

2
2
2
2

3
3
3
3

4
4
4
4

5
5
5
5

6
6
6
6

7
7
7
7

pay 1
pay 2
pay 3

Anh/ ch c tra lng cao

Anh/ ch thng c tang lng
Anh/ ch co the song hoan toan da vao thu nhap t cong ty

1 2 3
1 2 3
1 2 3

4
4
4

5 6 7
5 6 7
5 6 7

pay 4
pay 5

Tien lng tng xng vi ket qua lam viec

Tien lng, thu nhap c tra cong bang

1 2 3
1 2 3

4
4

5 6 7
5 6 7

ben 1
ben 2
ben 3
ben 4

Cong ty co che o phuc li tot

Cong ty thc hien che o bao hiem xa hoi tot
Cong ty thc hien che o bao hiem y te tot
Anh ch hai long vi che o tien thng cua cong ty

1
1
1
1

2
2
2
2

3
3
3
3

4
4
4
4

5
5
5
5

6
6
6
6

7
7
7
7

env 1
env 2
env 3
env 4

Cong viec khong b ap lc cao

Cong viec khong oi hoi thng xuyen phai lam ngoai gi
Trang thiet b ni lam viec an toan, sach se
Cong viec on nh, khong phai lo lang ve mat viec lam

1
1
1
1

2
2
2
2

3
3
3
3

4
4
4
4

5
5
5
5

6
6
6
6

7
7
7
7

cow 1
cow 2
cow 3
cow 4

ong nghiep cua anh/ch thoai mai va de chu

Anh/ ch va cac ong nghiep phoi hp lam viec tot
Nhng ngi ma anh/ ch lam viec vi thng giup lan nhau
Anh/ ch cam thay co nhieu ong lc trau doi chuyen mon khi c lam viec vi
cac ong nghiep cua mnh

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

prom1

Anh/ ch c biet nhng ieu kien e c thang tien

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

prom2

Cong ty tao cho anh ch nhieu c hoi thang tien

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Prom3
Prom4

Anh/ ch c cung cap kien thc/ ky nang can thiet cho cong viec
Cong ty tao cho anh/ch nhieu c hoi phat trien ca nhan

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

76

sup 1

Cap tren hoi y kien anh/ch khi co van e lien quan en cong viec cua anh/ch

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

sup 2

Cap tren khuyen khch cap di tham gia vao nhng quyet nh quan trong

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

sup 3
sup 4
sup 5

Nhan vien c s ho tr cua cap tren

Cong ty hoat ong co hieu qua
Nhan vien c ton trong va tin cay trong cong viec

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

sup 6
sup 7

Lanh ao co tac phong lch s, hoa nha

Nhan vien c oi x cong bang, khong phan biet

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

PHAN II. Anh/ch vui long cho biet mc o ong y cua mnh ve cac phat bieu di ay
loy1
loy2
loy3

Anh/ch co y nh lai lau dai cung cong ty

Neu co ni khac co li e ngh lng bong tng oi hap dan hn, anh/ch van se
lai cung cong ty
Ve nhieu phng dien, anh ch coi cong ty la mai nha th hai cua mnh

1 2 3

4 5 6

1 2 3

4 5 6

1 2 3

4 5 6

PHAN III. Xin vui long cho biet oi net ve cong viec va ban than anh/ch
1. Bo phan cong tac cua anh ch trong cong ty :
2. V tr cong tac cua anh ch thuoc nhom:
Nhan vien cac bo phan
Can bo quan ly cac bo phan (to trng)
Trng/pho phong ban hoac tng ng
3. Gii tnh:
Nam
N
4. Trnh chuyen mon:
Trung cap
Cao ang
ai hoc
Sau ai hoc
5. Tuoi i cua anh/ch:tuoi
6. Thi gian lam viec tai cong ty:
Di 5 nam
T 5-<10 nam
T 10 - <15 nam
Tren 15 nam
7. Thu nhap trung bnh/thang cua anh ch (tnh ca cac khoan ngoai lng) thuoc nhom:
<3 tr
T 3 -<5 tr
T 5 <7tr
T 7 tr tr len

77

Ph lc 2
Xin gii thiu vi bn c bi vit sau y ca tc gi Phm c K - Ging vin Khoa Qun L
Cng Nghip, i hc Bch Khoa TPHCM
Tm lc l thuyt v SEM 1
Phm c K

Phn ny tm tt ngn gn v khng thin v c tnh k thut ca cc vn cn bn

c lin quan trong SEM, bao gm cc vn c lng, thch hp m hnh, v cc gi thit
thng k.
SEM (Structural Equation Modelling) l mt k thut m hnh thng k rt tng qut,
c s dng rng ri trong khoa hc nghin cu hnh vi. N c th c xem l s kt hp
ca phn tch nhn t v hi quy hay phn tch ng dn. S quan tm trong SEM thng l
vo cc kin trc l thuyt (cc khi nim l thuyt), c trnh by bi cc nhn t ngm
(cc khi nim tim n). Cc quan h gia cc kin trc l thuyt c trnh by bi cc h
s hi quy hay h s ng dn gia cc nhn t. SEM m ch 1 cu trc ca cc hip tng
quan (covariances_hip phng sai) gia cc bin c quan st, cc quan h ny cho ra mt
tn khc l m hnh ha cu trc hip tng quan (covariance structure modeling_m hnh
cu trc hip phng sai). Tuy nhin, m hnh c th c m rng thm bao gm trung
bnh ca cc bin quan st c hoc cc nhn t trong m hnh, lm cho tn m hnh ha
cu trc hip tng quan t chnh xc. Nhiu nh nghin cu ch n gin ngh m hnh loi
ny l cc m hnh Lisrel, iu ny cng t chnh xc. LISREL l ch vit tt ca Linear
Structural RELations (cc quan h cu trc tuyn tnh), v tn ny c Jreskog s dng
cho mt trong nhng chng trnh (phn mm) SEM u tin thng dng nht. Cc m hnh
phng trnh cu trc ngy nay khng nht thit phi tuyn tnh, v kh nng m rng ca
SEM xa hn phng trnh Lisrel ban u. V d, Browne (1993) tho lun kh nng lm thch
hp cc ng cong phi tuyn.
SEM cung cp mt khung thun tin v rt tng qut cho cc phn tch thng k bao
gm cc th tc a bin truyn thng, v d cc trng hp c bit l phn tch nhn t,
phn tch hi quy, phn tch phn bit, v tng quan canonical. SEM thng c minh ha
bng biu ng dn (s ng dn). Phng trnh thng k ny thng c trnh
by trong mt h phng trnh ma trn. Trong u thp nin 70, khi k thut ny c gii
thiu ln u trong nghin cu x hi v nghin cu hnh vi, phn mm thng yu cu ci
t ch r m hnh theo iu kin ca nhng ma trn ny. Do , cc nh nghin cu phi
lc vic trnh by ma trn t biu ng dn, v cung cp phn mm vi 1 chui ma trn
cho cc tp hp tham s khc nhau, nh l h s nhn t v cc h s hi quy. Cc phn mm
c pht trin gn y cho php cc nh nghin cu ch nh trc tip m hnh nh l 1 biu
ng dn. Vic ny hiu qu vi cc vn n gin, nhng c th gy mt mi i vi
cc m hnh c tnh phc tp hn. V l do ny, phn mm SEM hin ti cng vn h tr cc
c tnh k thut ca m hnh loi cu lnh-hay ma trn.
Path analysis (phn tch ng dn) l k thut thng k dng kim tra quan h nhn qu
gia hai hay nhiu bin (bin quan st). Da trn h thng phng trnh tuyn tnh.
Path analysis l thnh phn ph ca SEM, mt th tc a bin m theo nh ngha ca
1

Ngun: http://www.mba-15.com
Ghi ch: nhng ch c in nghing m v trong ngoc n l do ti b sung thm, thng nht cc thut
ng thng dng nhm gip bn c thun li hn.

78

Ullman (1996), cho php kim tra mt tp quan h gia mt hay nhiu bin c lp, hoc l
lin tc hoc l ri rc, v mt hay nhiu bin ph thuc, hoc l lin tc hoc l ri rc.
SEM lin quan n cc bin o lng c (measured variable) v cc bin ngm (latent
variable_bin tim n). Mt measured variable l mt bin c th c quan st trc tip v
c o lng. Bin o lng c cng c bit n nh bin quan st c (observed
variable), bin ch bo hay bin biu th (indicator or manifest variables). Mt latent variable
l mt bin khng th c quan st trc tip v phi c suy ra t measured variable.
Latent variables c m ch bi hip tng quan (covariances) gia hai hay nhiu measured
variables. Chng cng c bit n nh l cc nhn t (ngha l, phn tch nhn t), cc bin
kin trc hay cc bin khng quan st c (constructs or unobserved variables). SEM l s
kt hp gia hi quy a bin v phn tch nhn t. Path analysis ch lin quan n cc bin o
lng (measured variables).
CC THNH PHN CA SEM

C hai thnh phn: m hnh o lng (measurement model) v m hnh cu trc (structural
model).
+ Measurement model: lin quan n quan h gia measured variables v latent variables.
+ Structural model: ch lin quan n cc quan h gia cc latent variables m thi.
K hiu trong SEM:
- Cc bin o lng c: hnh ch nht hay vung
- Cc bin ngm: elp hay hnh trn
- Cc khon sai s: (nhiu ca cc bin ngm) c a vo biu SEM, i din bi
Es cho cc bin o lng v Ds cho cc bin ngm. Cc khon sai s i din phng
sai phn d trong cc bin khng c tnh cho cc ng dn (pathways) c gi thit
trong m hnh.
Tham s ca SEM:
- L cc bin, h s hi quy v hip tng quan gia cc bin.
- Phng sai c th c ch ra bng mi tn hai u kt thc ti cng mt bin, hoc n
gin hn, k hiu bng s trong hp v bin hay cung trn.
- Cc h s hi quy c trnh by dc theo mi tn mt chiu ch ra ng dn c gi
thit gia hai bin (c trng s c p dng cho cc bin trong cc phng trnh hi quy
tuyn tnh)
- Hip phng sai c kt hp vi cc mi tn vng cung hai u gia hai bin hoc cc sai
s v biu th v hng (no directionality). Data cho SEM l cc phng sai mu v hip
phng sai mu ly t tng th (k hiu S, phng sai mu quan st c v ma trn hip
phng sai).
KIN TRC SEM

Mc tiu trong vic xy dng 1 s ng n (path diagram) hay m hnh phng trnh
cu trc, l tm mt m hnh thch hp vi d liu (S) phc v nh l 1 i din c ch
ca tin cy v gii thch chi tit d liu.

79

C 5 bc trong kin trc SEM:

1. Ch nh m hnh (Model Specification)
2. Nhn dng m hnh (Model Identification)
3. c lng m hnh (Model Estimation)
4. nh gi thch hp ca m hnh (Assesing Fit of the Model)
5. Hiu chnh m hnh (Model Modification)
Ch nh m hnh (Model Specification)

L vic chnh thc bt u mt m hnh. Trong bc ny, cc tham s c xc nh l c

nh hay t do. Tham s c nh (fixed parameters) khng c c lng t d liu v c
gn mt cch tiu biu bng 0 (ch ra khng c quan h gia cc bin). Cc ng dn ca
cc tham s c nh c gn nhn s (tr khi c gn gi tr l 0, trong trng hp ny
khng c ng dn no c v) trong biu SEM. Tham s t do (Free parameters)
c c lng t d liu quan st v c ngi iu tra tin rng n khc 0. Vic xc nh
tham s no l c nh hay t do trong SEM l rt quan trng v n xc nh tham s no s
c s dng so snh biu gi thuyt vi ma trn hip phng sai v phng sai tng
th mu trong vic kim tra tnh thch hp ca m hnh (bc 4). Vic chn tham s no l c
nh v tham s no l t do ty thuc vo ngi nghin cu. S la chn ny trnh by mt
gi thuyt tin v ng xu hng trong h thng l quan trng trong th h ca cu trc
lin quan ca h thng c quan st (v d, phng sai mu c quan st v ma trn hip
phng sai).
Nhn dng m hnh (Model Identification)

Vic nhn dng quan tm n vic c hay khng gi tr duy nht cho mi v mi tham s t
do c th thu thp c t d liu quan st. N ph thuc vo vic la chn m hnh v c
tnh k thut ca cc tham s c nh, rng buc v t do. Mt tham s b rng buc khi n
trong mt tp hp vi cc tham s khc. Cc m hnh cn phi c nhn dng hon chnh
c th c lng c (bc 3) v kim nh gi thuyt v quan h gia cc bin.
C cc dng m hnh c cu trc l just-identified, overidentified, hay underidentified.
+ just-identified model: trong tng ng 1-1 gia data v cc tham s cu trc. Ngha l,
s phng sai d liu v s hip phng sai bng vi s tham s c c lng. Tuy nhin,
mc du kh nng ca m hnh l t c mt gii php duy nht cho tt c cc tham s,
just-identified model khng c s quan tm ca khoa hc gia v bi n khng c t do v
do khng th b loi b.
+ Overidentified model: l m hnh trong s tham s c th c lng c th nh hn s
im d liu (data points) (ngha l, phng sai, hip tng quan ca cc bin quan st
c). Tnh trng ny to kt qu ra t do dng cho php loi b m hnh, do c s
dng mt cch khoa hc hn. Mc ch ca SEM l ch ra mt m hnh nh vy p ng cc
tiu chun ca overidentification.
+ Underidentified model: l m hnh trong s tham s c c lng vt qu s
phng sai v hip tng quan. Nh vy, m hnh bao gm thng tin khng ngha (t d

80

liu u vo) cho vic t c 1 gii php xc nh v c lng tham s; ngha l, v s

cc gii php l kh d cho 1 underidentified model.
c lung m hnh (Model Estimation)

Trong bc ny, cc gi tr khi u ca tham s t do c chn sinh ra 1 ma trn hip

tng quan tng th c c lng (estimated population covariance matrix), S(q), t m
hnh. Cc gi tr khi u c th c chn bi ngi nghin cu t thng tin ban u, bi
cc chng trnh my tnh c s dng xy dng SEM, hay t phn tch hi quy a bin.
Mc tiu ca c lng l sinh ra mt S(q) hi t trn ma trn hip tng quan tng th
quan st c, S, vi ma trnphn d (residual matrix) (khc bit gia S(q) v S) tr nn ti
thiu. Nhiu phng php c th c s dng sinh ra S(q). Vic chn cc phng php
c hng dn bng c tnh ca data bao gm kch thc v phn phi mu. Hu ht cc
tin trnh c s dng l lp.
Hnh thc tng qut ca hm ti thiu l:
Q = (s - s(q))W(s - s(q))
Trong :
s = vector bao gm phng sai v hip phng sai ca cc bin quan st c.
s(q) = vector bao gm cc phng sai corresponding v hip phng sai nh c d on
bi m hnh.
W = ma trn trng s
(mt vi tc gi xem Q nh l F)
Ma trn trng s, W, trong hm trn, ph hp vi phng php c lng c chn. W
c chn ti thiu Q, v Q(N-1) cho vic thch hp hm, trong hu ht cc trng hp
mt thng k phn phi X2. Kt qu thc hin ca X2 b nh hng bi kch thc mu, sai
s phn phi, nhn t phn phi, v gi thit rng cc nhn t v sai s l c lp (Ullman
1996).
Mt vi phng php c lung c s dng thng dng nht l:
Generalized Least squares (GLS)
FGLS = tr[([S - S(q)]W-1)2]
Trong :
tr = ton t theo di (trace operator), cng cc yu t trn ng cho chnh ca ma trn
W-1 = ma trn trng s ti u, phi c chn bi nh nghin cu (chn la thng thng
nht l S-1)
Maximum Likelihood (ML)
FML = log|S| - log|S| + tr(SS-1) - p
Trong trng hp ny, W = S-1v p = s lng bin c o lng Asymptotically
Distribution Free (ADF) Estimator (Hm c lng t do phn phi tim cn)
FADF = [S - s(q)]W-1[S - s(q)]
W, trong hm ny, bao gm cc yu t xem xt trong kurtosis.

Ullman (1996) v Hoyle (1995) tho lun v cc thun li v gii hn ca cc hm c lng

trn y.
ML v GLS hu ch cho d liu phn phi chun khi cc nhn t v sai s l c lp, ADF

81

hu ch cho cc d liu khng phn phi chun, nhng ch c gi tr khi kch thc mu ln
hn 2.500. Ullman ch ra hm c lng tt nht cho d liu khng phn phi chun v/hoc
ph thuc gia cc nhn t v sai s l Scaled ML. Bt k hm no c chn, kt qu mong
i ca tin trnh c lng l t c mt hm thch hp gn n 0. Mt hm thch hp vi
s im l 0 ch ra rng ma trn hip phng sai c c lng ca m hnh v ma trn hip
phng sai mu nguyn thy l tng ng.
nh gi thch hp ca m hnh (Assesing Fit of the Model)

Nh phn tch, gi tr hm thch hp gn n 0 c mong i cho thch hp m hnh.

Tuy nhin, ni chung, nu t s gia X2v bc t do nh hn 3, m hnh l thch hp tt
(Ullman 1996).
c tin cy trong kim nh thch hp m hnh, kch thc mu t 100 n 200 c
yu cu (Hoyle 1995).
Ullman (1996) tho lun s a dng ca cc hm thch hp phn phi khng-X2, m ng ta
gi l cc ch s thch hp so snh (comparative fit indices.) Hoyle (1995) cp n iu
ny nh cc ch s thch hp ph thuc (adjunct fit indices). Mt cch cn bn, nhng
phng php ny so snh thch hp ca mt m hnh c lp (mt m hnh khng nh
khng c quan h gia cc bin) thch hp m hnh c c lng. Kt qu ca vic so
snh ny th thng l mt s gia 0 v 1, vi 0.90 hoc ln hn c chp nhn nh l cc
gi tr ch ra thch hp. C Hoyle v Ullman ngh s dng nhiu ch s khi xc nh cc
thch hp m hnh.
Hiu chnh m hnh (Model Modification)

Nu ma trn phng sai/hip phng sai c c lng bng m hnh khng m phng mt
cch thch hp ma trn phng sai/hip phng sai mu, cc gi thuyt c th c hiu
chnh v m hnh c kim nh li. iu chnh 1 m hnh, cc ng dn mi c v
thm hay cc ng dn c c b i. Ni cch khc, cc tham s c thay i t c nh
ti t do hoc t t do n c nh. iu quan trng nh l khi trong cc th tc thng k
khc, l vic hiu chnh m hnh sau vic kim nh ln u lm gia tng c hi ca vp phi
sai lm loi I.
Cc th tc thng thng c s dng cho vic hiu chnh m hnh l Lagrange Multiplier
Index (LM) v Kim nh Wald. C hai loi kim nh ny bo co cc thay i trong gi tr
X2 khi cc ng dn c iu chnh.
LM yu cu d c hay khng vic gia tng cc tham s t do gia tng s thch hp ca m
hnh. Kim nh Wald yu cu c hay khng vic xa b cc tham s t do gia tng s thch
hp m hnh.
iu chnh t l sai lm loi 1 gia tng, Ullman (1996) yu cu s dng mt gi tr xc
sut thp (p<0.01) khi tng thm hay b cc tham s. Ullman cng yu cu so snh gi tr
cho (cross-validation) vi cc mu khc. V trt t ca cc tham s t do c th nh hng
n vic la chn ca cc tham s khc, LM nn c p dng trc kim nh Wald (ngha

82

l, cng thm vo tt c cc tham s trc khi bt u xa chng) (MacCullum 1986, trch

dn ca Ullman 1996).
Trnh by m hnh cui cng (Final Presentation of Model)

Khi m hnh t c thch hp chp nhn c, cc c lng ring bit v cc tham

s t do c nh gi. Cc tham s t do c so snh vi gi tr rng (null value), s dng
thng k phn phi z. Thng k z t c bng cch chia tham s c lng cho sai s
chun ca c lng . T l ca kim nh ny phi vt +/-1.96 quan h tr nn c
ngha. Sau khi cc quan h ring bit trong m hnh c nh gi, cc c lng tham s
c chun ha cho vic trnh by m hnh cui cng. Khi cc c lng tham s c
chun ha, chng c th c gii thch tham chiu vi cc tham s khc trong m hnh v
cng ca ng xu hng c lin quan trong m hnh c th c so snh.

83

Ph lc 3
Nhm to thun li cho bn c khi tm hiu SEM, xin gii thiu vi bn c nghin cu sau
y (c p dng SEM) tc gi Phm c K, Bi Nguyn Hng. Bn nn c thm cc nghin cu
khc c pht trong lp, v mt s bi vit di dng file pdf c gi qua email. Tc gi

ca quyn bi ging ny la chn 2 bi nghin cu ny gii thiu vi cc bn bi 2 tc

gi ca bi nghin cu vit rt tt, lnh vc lng trung thnh, dch v thng tin di ng cng
gn gi vi rt nhiu bn.
Bi vit 1.
Nghin cu m hnh s trung thnh ca khch hng dch v thng tin di ng ti Vit Nam

Phm c K, Bi Nguyn Hng

Khoa Qun l Cng Nghip-HBK TP.HCM

I. GII THIU

Trong bi cnh khi m th trng thng tin di ng (TTD) cc nc cnh tranh mnh m do
m ca th trng v gim mnh cc u th ca v th c quyn, vi s tham gia ca nhiu
nh cung cp, dng cc chin lc cnh tranh hn hp bao gm cc chin lc v gi cc,
cht lng dch v c bn, dch v gia tng, qung co khuyn mi, gim gi v chm sc
khch hng (CSKH), to cho h ngy cng c nhiu s la chn, vi xu hng chuyn sang
mng khc hp dn hn, tc ng n s bn vng v thu bao ca cc mng di ng.
Cc nghin cu thc nghim ti nhiu nc trn th gii trong lnh vc TTD nh n [1],
Canada, M[14] v Trung Quc[21], cho thy m hnh cht lng dch v theo Parasuraman v
cc m hnh truyn thng khc[9] khng gii thch s tho mn v s trung thnh ca
khch hng. Mt s nghin cu gn y ti Bangladesh, Hn Quc, i Loan cp thm
mt s nhn t tc ng khc (chi ph vt cht, tinh thn, ri ro, sc hp dn ca dch v thay
th, mc mt thit trong quan h c nhn gia khch hng v nh cung cp,..) m khch
hng phi cn nhc mi khi c nh chuyn sang nh cung cp khc[10] [22]. Kt qu nghin
cu ca tc gi M-K Kim ti Hn Quc cn ch ra rng khch hng mc d tho mn vi cht
lng dch v ca nh cung cp hin ti nhng vn chuyn sang nh cung cp khc, hoc s
dng nhiu dch v ca nhiu nh cung cp ng thi.Cc tc gi Fornell, 1992; Ahmad &
Buttle, 2002 cng cho rng mt khi th trng tr nn cnh tranh quyt lit th chin lc
phng th duy tr khch hng hin c cn quan trng hn so vi chin lc cng kch
nhm m rng quy m ton b th trng bng n lc gia tng cc khch hng tim nng[12].
Chin lc phng th ca nh cung cp truyn thng Telstra(Australia) trc s thm nhp
ca Optus (Anh-M) nm1990 l mt v d in hnh[3]
Th trng TTD ti Vit Nam ang trong giai on chuyn dn t mt th trng c quyn
do nh nc kim sot sang th trng cnh tranh vi tc pht trin cng ngh di ng
nhanh, chu k cng ngh rt ngn, li th do chi ph u t ngy cng gim mang n
nhng c hi cho nh cung cp dch v mi tham gia th trng, ng thi l thch thc i
84

vi nh cung cp dch v hin ti. Cnh tranh gia cc mng TTD hin nay ch yu da
vo gim gi cc v khuyn mi lin tc to nn ln sng thu bao di chuyn t mng ny
sang mng khc ngy cng ph bin. T l thu bao ngng hot ng so vi tng thu bao
trn mng hin chim t l rt ln mng VinaPhone (1/4), MobiFone (1/3), Viettel(1/2) &
S-Fone (2/3). Kt cc ca kiu cnh tranh bng gi cc dn ti tnh trng trong tng s
14.3 triu thu bao cng b, thc cht ch c 10.4 triu thu bao thc hot ng, do s thu
bao o chim t 25-30% (mt khch hng s dng cng lc t 2-3 mng di ng). Tnh
trng ny cho thy khch hng hin nay khng cn trung thnh vi nh cung cp nh trong
th trng c quyn trc nm 2003[19].
Trong tng lai, khi s thu bao ngy cng tin n im bo ho v gi cc khng cn l
li th i vi ring doanh nghip (DN) no th vic tm kim v to khch hng mi s rt
kh khn, i hi nhiu chi ph dnh cho qung co-khuyn mi[12],
Xt gc v m, thc trng trn th hin mt th trng pht trin thiu bn vng, tiu cc
v lng ph ti nguyn ca ngnh[19]
V vy, vic nghin cu m hnh trung thnh ca khch hng dch v TTD ti Vit Nam c
ngha v mt nghin cu khm ph, ng gp mt thang o mi v mt m hnh l thuyt
mi. V mt thc tin, vic gi chn khch hng, lm cho khch hng tr nn trung thnh
hn mang tnh cp thit, c bit i vi hai nh cung cp dch v truyn thng hin nay l
MobiFone v VinaPhone, khi m th trng TTD ti Vit Nam ang trong giai on pht
trin mnh, v t l thm nhp hin mi ch t 14 my/100 dn, cn thp hn nhiu so vi
cc nc trong khu vc v th gii (70-80 my/100 dn). Kt qu nghin cu s cung cp
thng tin cho cc nh qun l hoch nh chin lc s dng hiu qu ngun ti nguyn vin
thng, ng thi gip cc nh cung cp dch v TTD hoch nh v thc hin hiu qu hn cc hot
ng tip th, CSKH.
II. CC M HNH NGHIN CU S TRUNG THNH CA KHCH HNG TTD

Nhiu nghin cu trc y cp mi quan h nhn qu gia cht lng dch v, s tha
mn v s trung thnh trong m hnh truyn thng c tng qut ho nh Hnh 1:

Hnh 1. M hnh tch hp s trung thnh ca khch hng [9]

85

S tha mn l s p ng v s nh gi ca khch hng v trng thi mn nguyn (Oliver,

1997)[12]. S tha mn theo Parasuraman (1994) l kt qu tng hp ca Cht lng dch v,
Cht lng sn phm v Gi hoc theo Mittal et al (1998) l Cht lng dch v ct li, Dch
v c nhn v Gi [22]. Trong lnh vc dch v TTD tho mn cng c o lng thng qua
05 thnh phn cht lng dch v ca Parasuraman[5][7][10][17][20], theo M-K. Kim et al, l: Cht
lng cuc gi, Dch v gia tng, Cu trc gi cc, Dch v khch hng v S thun tin [12]
. M hnh o lng khi nim s trung thnh tin trin qua ba giai on, u tin n ch
o hnh vi mua lp li (Jacoby & Chestnut, 1978) c nh gi l qu gin lc do b
qua cc yu t tnh hung (Omally, 1998; Dick & Basu, 1994), hoc khng th gii thch s
trung thnh t nguyn hay trung thnh p buc (Hirschman, 1970; Johnson, 1982;
Levinger,1979; Ping, 1993) nn yu t thi c a vo gii thch cho s trung
thnh (Linderstat, 1998)[9]. Cui cng yu t nhn thc c a vo v khch hng phi
tri qua giai on trung thnh nhn thc trn c s kin thc hay nim tin c v thng
hiu (Glember & Brown, 1996). Nh vy, s trung thnh i hi cng lc nim tin (nhn
thc), cm tnh (thi ) v hnh ng mua lp li (hnh vi)[9]. y l phng php tip cn
kiu tch hp. S tha mn cao s gim bt li ch cm nhn ca cc dch v thay th v
dn n s trung thnh cao hn (Anderson & Sullivan, 1993), cht lng nhn thc v s
tha mn nh hng n s trung thnh (Johny, 2001), s tha mn dn n hnh vi mua li
v dn n s trung thnh. Kt qu cc nghin cu thc nghim 100 cng ty thuc 13
ngnh dch v (c ngnh vin thng) c th tng qut ho nh hnh 2, ngha l cht lng
nhn thc c th nh hng trc tip ln s trung thnh hoc cng c th nh hng gin tip
ln s trung thnh thng qua s tha mn.

Hnh 2: M hnh l thuyt s trung thnh ca khch hng [9]

Hn ch ca m hnh ny l qu gin lc khng th hin y cc yu t tc ng n s

trung thnh. Phng php tip cn khi nim s trung thnh kiu tch hp c s dng
trong nhiu nghin cu ti M, Canada, chu u [14], n [1] trong lnh vc dch v TTD

86

th hin r tnh a hng ca s trung thnh nhng v c bn vn l m hnh truyn thng

nu trn (Hnh 1).
1. M hnh tip cn theo kiuRo cn chuyn i

Do cu trc th trng v bn cht cnh tranh bin i trong nhng nm gn y, nhiu

nghin cu cho thy cc m hnh truyn thng v s trung thnh km ph hp gii thch
thc tin v cnh tranh trong cc ngnh dch v ni chung, v ngnh dch v TTD ni ring.
Cc nh nghin cu cng pht hin cc khi nim mi c tc ng iu chnh i vi cc
m hnh truyn thng. C th, cc m hnh nghin cu ti th trng mt s nc chu gn
y thng tip cn theo khi nim Ro cn chuyn i nh cung cp, cp tnh hung
khch hng khng tha mn dch v hin ti, mun chuyn sang dch v khc s gp phi
gnh nng nh kh khn v ti chnh, tm l, x hi, ri ro,(Hnh 3).

Hnh 3: M hnh l thuyt s trung thnh ca khch hng dch v TTD

Ro cn chuyn i nh cung cp trong lnh vc dch v TTD thng cp l 1) Chi ph

chuyn i (tn tht do chuyn i, chi ph thch nghi mi v chi ph gia nhp mi), 2) S
hp dn ca mng khc (v danh ting, hnh nh, cht lng, gi cc,..) v 3) Quan h
khch hng (thm hi, chm sc, tin cy, mt thit, trao i thng tin,gia khch hng vi
nhn vin nh cung cp dch v)[10][12][13][22]. Ro cn chuyn i cng cao cng c tc dng
gi chn khch hng. Ngi ta thng chia ro cn chuyn i ra lm hai loi: ro cn tiu
cc (loi th nht), ro cn tch cc (loi th 2 &3); hoc phn bit bng: ro cn ni sinh
(loi th 1&3); ro cn ngoi sinh (loi th 2)
2. M hnh tip cn kiu tch hp

Phn tch su m hnh kho st ch s hi lng ca khch hng mt s ngnh dch v ti th

trng M, chu u cng nh m hnh nghin cu s tha mn ca khch hng dch v di
ng ti Canada, da theo m hnh Fornell at al (1996)[14] th quan h gia s tho mn v s
trung thnh c s dng nh mt khi nim ng nht (Hnh 4), trong s trung thnh
tim n gm cc thnh phn: Kh nng mua li (Nhn thc), Mc chp nhn gi
(Thi ) v S than phin (Hnh vi).
87

Hnh 4: M hnh l thuyt s trung thnh khch hng dch v TTD

So vi m hnh tip cn kiu ro cn chuyn i ca M-K.Kim et al (2004)[12], thnh phn

kh nng mua li gi thit khng b nh hng bi ro cn chuyn i, ngha l khch
hng t do la chn khi c nhu cu, khng b rng buc vi nh cung cp (thu bao tr tin
trc). Ngc li mc chp nhn gi ca khch hng c o lng trong iu kin
thc c hin din ca Ro cn chuyn i[14] (thu bao tr tin sau b rng buc bi hp
ng vi nh cung cp). Kh nng mua li hm s a thch ca khch hng c tnh bn
vng i vi nh cung cp (Soderlund,1998), y l thnh phn truyn thng trong m hnh
c in, v mc chp nhn gi hm khch hng trung thnh sn sng tr gi cao hn,
hoc khng chuyn sang nh cung cp khc c gi thp hn trnh ri ro cm nhn do xy
ra s thay i no . Khch hng cng c quan h lu di v cng trung thnh th mc
chp nhn gi cng cao, t so snh gi vi nh cung cp khc (Ruyter et al, 1999)[14] .
3. nh gi cc m hnh

Khi nghin cu s trung thnh ca khch hng dch v TTD, cc nh nghin cu thng
tip cn theo hai trng phi: Cc m hnh nghin cu ti th trng chu u v Bc M
(Hoa K, Canada) tip cn kiu tch hp theo Thi , Nhn thc v Hnh vi th hin qua
Mc chp nhn gi, Kh nng mua li v S than phin gii thch cho s trung
thnh ca khch hng[14].
Cc m hnh nghin cu ti th trng chu th tip cn theo cc yu t lin quan n kh
khn m khch hng gp phi nh: Chi ph vt cht, chi ph tinh thn, ri ro khi chuyn i
nh cung cp, to nn khi nim gi l Ro cn chuyn i nh cung cp dch
v[10][12][13][22]. Hn na cc nghin cu ny cn chng minh c rng Ro cn chuyn i
ng vai tr bin iu chnh mi quan h gia s tha mn v s trung thnh. Ni cch khc,
vi mt mc tho mn nht nh, mc trung thnh c th thay i tu thuc bin
thay i ca Ro cn chuyn i [12]

88

Tm li, s trung thnh trong cc m hnh chu Au v Bc M l mt khi nim hai th

nguyn trong yu t Mc chp nhn gi c ngun gc t ri ro nhn thc tng
ng vi ro cn chuyn i trong cc m hnh nghin cu th trng chu . Tuy
nhin, m hnh chu Au v Bc M nhn mnh yu t gi nh mt thnh phn chnh ca ro
cn chuyn i trong khi cc m hnh chu coi ro cn chuyn i l s nh i gia
gi tr nhn thc v chi ph b ra khi khch hng c nh chuyn sang nh cung cp khc
(Ratchford, 1982).
4. xut m hnh cho nghin cu th trng TTD ti Vit Nam

Trong bi cnh th trng TTD Vit nam ang cnh tranh ngy cng gay gt vi s tham
gia ca 06 nh cung cp dch v, s lng khch hng chuyn i qua li gia cc mng ngy
cng gia tng th vn nghin cu m hnh s trung thnh ca khch hng vi ro cn
chuyn mng thc s mang tnh thc t v cp thit hin nay.
M hnh c xut s dng thang o 05 thnh phn cht lng dch v trong lnh vc
TTD [1,5,6,7,9,10,15,16,17,20,21,22], kt hp cc m hnh nghin cu gn y c xt thm yu t
Ro cn chuyn mng, c nhiu t chc v c nhn trn th gii [2,4,8,11,12,13,18] tin hnh,
la chn cc nhn t c xem l ph hp vi th trng TTD ti Vit Nam hnh thnh
m hnh l thuyt v cc gi thuyt nh Hnh 5
Cn c vo cc d liu th cp ca cc mng Vinaphone, MobiFone, Viettel Mobile nh: bo
co cht lng dch v, thng k cc khiu ni, phn nh ca khch hng qua tng i v ti
cc giao dch Ti cc lp o to nghip v ca Vinaphone t thng 12/2005 n thng
02/2006, kt hp thm d hn 800 giao dch vin ca 22 Bu in tnh thnh khu vc pha
nam, thng xuyn tip xc vi khch hng bng 02 cu hi m:

89

Hnh 5: M hnh l thuyt

-

nh gi cht lng dch v TTD da trn nhng yu t no?

Nhng yu t no khin khch hng chn mng mi, dng thm mng, ngng s dng, tip tc trung
thnh vi mng hin ti?

Sau khi la chn, cn nhc sp xp, c kt qu nh bng 1.

90

Bng 1: Cc nhn t v thuc tnh o lng ca m hnh

5. Kt lun

T cc phn tch v nh gi cc m hnh nghin cu s trung thnh ca khch hng dch v

TTD trn th gii, m hnh l thuyt cho nghin cu thc nghim ti th trng TTD ti
91

Vit Nam c xut nh hnh 5. Trong m hnh ny s trung thnh ca khch hng s
dng dch v thng tin di ng c quyt nh bi 02 nhm yu t: l nhm yu t S
tha mn nhm yu t cht lng dch v ca cc nh cung cp v nhm yu t Ro cn
chuyn mng ca chnh loi dch v ny. Trong nhm yu t S tha mn (cht lng
dch v) c 5 yu t: cht lng cuc gi, cu trc gi, dch v gia tng, tnh thun tin v
dch v khch hng. Trong nhm Ro cn chuyn mng cng gm 5 yu t: cc tn tht,
chi ph thch nghi mi, chi ph gia nhp mi, s hp dn ca cc mng khc (i th cnh
tranh) v mi quan h khch hng
M hnh trong hnh 5 l mt m hnh a nhn t, vic tm hiu tng tc gia cc nhn t ny
vi s trung thnh ca khch hng s gip cho cc c quan qun l nh nc trong hoch
nh chnh sch pht trin ngnh TTD nh: s lng cc nh cung cp dch v, chnh sch
pht trin th trng n nh bn vng, u t hiu qu v tit kim ti nguyn ca ngnh,..
Ring vi gc cc nh cung cp dch v thng tin di ng Vit Nam th kt qu ng
dng m nghin cu ny gip a ra cc gii php nhm nng cao cht lng dch v gi
chn khch hng qua vic nng cao lng trung thnh ca khch hng, bnh n th trng, gia
tng s thu bao v gia tng li nhun.
TI LIU THAM KHO
[1] Apoorva Palkar (2004), Determinants of Customer Satisfaction for Cellular Service Providers, Vol. 28,
No,1, Jan-March 2004.
[2] Arthur Lin (2004), Antecedent and Consequences of Customer Switching Cost for the Mobile Phone Market,
Progress report.
[3] Nguyn Sn Hi, Tp ch Bu chnh vin thng v Cng ngh thng tin. MPT (10/2006)
[4] Claes-Robert Julander (Jan,2003), Effect of Switching Barrier on Satisfaction, Repurchase Intentions and
Attitudinal Loyalty, SSE/EFI Working paper Series in Business Administration. No. 2003:1.
[5] Eli M.Noam, The Quality of regulation in Regulating Quality: A Proposal for an Intergrated Incentive
Approach to Telephone Service Performance, in Price Caps and Incentive Regulation in Telecommunications,
ed. Micheal Einhorn (Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1991) 168-189.
[6] Garvin, Competing on the Eight Dimension of Quality
[7]J.D.Power and Associates, A Marketing Information Firm, www.Jdpower.com.
[8] Klemperer, Paul(1987), Markets with Consumer Switching Cost, the Quarterly Jounal of Economics,
102:375-394.
[9] Lu ting Pong, Johnny(2001), An Intergrated Model of Service Loyalty, Academy of Business &
Administrative Sciences 2001 International Conferences, Brussels, Belgium 23-25 July, 2001.
[10] Masud Parvez(ID#0120016), (2005), A relational Study on Service Quality, Switching Cost, Trust,
Customer Satisfaction and Customer Loyalty in the context of Grameenphone, Independent University,
Bangladesh.
[11] Mengze Shi(2005), Managing Consumer Switching Cost through Loyalty Incentives, Progress Report, Feb
14,2005.
[12] M-K. Kim et al., (2004), The effects of customer satisfaction and switching barrier on customer loyalty in
Korean mobile telecommunication services, Telecommunications Policy 28, (145-159)
[13] Moon-Koo Kim & Jong-Hyun Park (2003), The effect of switching barrier on customer retention in Korean
Mobile Telecommunication services, Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute, Korea.
[14] Ofir Turel & Alexander Serenko (2004), User Satisfaction with Mobile Services in Canada, Proceedings of
the Third International Conference on Mobile Business,
[15] Parasuraman, A. V. A. Zeithaml, & L.L.Berry (1985), A conceptual Model of Service Quality and its
Implications for Future Research, Jounal of Marketing.

92

[16] Parasuraman, A. V. A. Zeithaml, & L.L.Berry (1988), SERQUAL: A multiple-Item scale for measuring
consumer perceptions of service quality, Jounal of Retailing.
[17] Richters & Dvorak,A Framwork Of Defining the Quality of Communications Services
[18] Ruyter. K.D.,M.Wetzels&Bloemer (1998), On the relationship between perceived service quality, service
loyalty and switching cost, International of Service Industry Managerment, 19(5), pp.436-453.
[19] Trung tm thng tin, B BCVT (2005-2006), Tng hp bo ch tun, MPT,
[20] Trung tm nghin cu tip th Trng i hc Marketing (2003), Bo co kt qu nghin cu d n kho
st th trng dch v in thoi di ng ti TP.HCM, Hp ng dch v s 116/-MARC ngy 13/08/2003.
[21] Wen-Hai Chih & Tzy-Wen Tang & I-Ju Chen (2002), The Service Quality Perceptional Analysis of Mobile
Phone User in Mainland China, National Dong Hwa University.
[22] Shih-Ping JENG (2003), Customer Loyalty in Competitive Market : Alternative Attractiveness, Switching
Cost, and Satisfaction Effects, Fu Jen Catholic University
Tp ch BCVT-CNTT s thng 2/2007

Ngun: http://www.mba-15.com/view_news.php?id=491

93

Bi vit 2. o lng mc trung thnh ca khch hng i vi dch v thng tin di

ng-Nghin cu ti th trng TP.HCM

Phm c K, Bi Nguyn Hng

Khoa Qun l Cng nghip-HBK TP.HCM
I. GII THIU M HNH NGHIN CU

Bi vit Nghin cu m hnh s trung thnh ca khch hng trong lnh vc thng tin di ng
ti Vit Nam, Tp ch BCVT&CNTT K 1 thng 2/2007 phn tch cc m hnh nghin
cu s trung thnh ca khch hng trong lnh vc dch v thng tin di ng (TTD) ca mt
s nc trn th gii v xut m hnh l thuyt p dng cho nghin cu ti th trng
TTD Vit Nam [10]. Bi vit ny s trnh by kt qu nghin cu thc nghim ti th trng
TP. H Ch Minh t 01/2006 n 05/2006 nhm kim nghim m hnh l thuyt xut [10]
v cung cp mt thang o s trung thnh ca khch hng trong lnh vc dch v TTD ti
Vit Nam. V mt thc tin kt qu nghin cu cung cp thng tin gip cho vic hoch nh
chnh sch s dng hiu qu ngun ti nguyn vin thng ng thi gip cc nh cung cp
dch v TTD xy dng chin lc tip th phng th hiu qu theo nh hng khch hng.
M hnh nghin cu s dng thang o 05 thnh phn cht lng dch v trong lnh vc
TTD, kt hp cc m hnh nghin cu gn y c xt thm yu t Ro cn chuyn mng,
c nhiu t chc v c nhn trn th gii tin hnh, la chn cc nhn t ph hp vi th
trng TTD ti Vit Nam [10].
Trong m hnh ny, cht lng dch v gm 05 thnh phn: Cht lng cuc gi, Cu trc
gi cc, Dch v gia tng, S thun tin v Dch v khch hng. Ro cn chuyn mng gm
03 thnh phn: Chi ph chuyn mng (tn tht pht sinh khi chuyn mng, chi ph thch nghi
mng mi, chi ph gia nhp mng mi); S hp dn ca mng khc, v Quan h khch hng.
II. PHNG PHP NGHIN CU
Xc nh cc bin o lng: nghin cu nh tnh nhm xc nh cc nhn t v cc thuc
tnh o lng. Hn 800 giao dch vin cc ca hng, i l Bu in tnh thnh pha Nam
c ly kin thm d trong khong thi gian t 01/2006 n 02/2006, s b hnh thnh
thang o ban u [10]. Tip theo tin hnh phng vn 150 khch hng kim nh tin
cy thang o. Sau khi hiu chnh mt s bin, thang o cui cng c s dng cho phng
vn chnh thc.
Mu v thng tin mu: kho st nh lng thc hin ti khu vc TP.HCM t thng
03/2006 n 05/2006, i tng chn mu l khch hng cc mng di ng MobiFone,
VinaPhone, S-Fone v Viettel, s dng dch v 6 thng tr ln, tin hnh phng vn khch
hng ti cc khu vc Qun, Huyn theo t l dn c hp l. Phng php ly mu phi xc
sut c phn t[14] theo gii tnh (nam-58%, n-42%), 5 nhm tui (18-24, 25-34, 35-44,
45-54, 55-64), th phn thu bao cc mng (Mobifone-52.8%, VinaPhone-21%, S-Fone 5.9%,
Viettel-20.3%), trong mi mng li chia theo t l thu bao tr trc v thu bao tr sau
(MobiFone-70/30, VinaPhone-80/20, S-Fone-60/40, Viettel-65/35). M hnh o lng gm
52 bin quan st, theo quy tc ti thiu l: 5 x 3 = 15 mu cho mt bin o lng (Bentle &
Chou, 1987), do s mu tnh ton ban u l: 52 x 15 = 780, sau khi pht hnh 1.170 mu,
kt qu thu c 917 mu hp l.
Thu thp v phn tch d liu: M hnh l thuyt nghin cu c xy dng da trn nn
tng l thuyt m hnh mng SEM (Structural Equation Modeling) [1,3,6] v k thut x l

94

III. KT QU NGHIN CU
3.1. Kt qu thng k m t
D liu phn tch dng c mu N= 917, vi thang Likert 5 khong cch cho kt qu cc gi
tr Skewness v Kurtosis cc bin o lng phn b trong khong [-1, +1] nn phn b gn
chun v phng php c lng ML (Maximum Likelihood) c chp nhn s dng [8].
Vi thang o Likert 5 khong (t 1: rt khng ng n 5: rt ng ), gi tr trung bnh
(mean) ca cc bin o cht lng dch v c s khc bit kh cao (mean=2.82 ->3.64), c
bit khch hng cha hi lng v gi cc (mean=2.84); Tng i h tr (mean=2.82); Mng
hay b nghn, rt mch (mean=3.1), Gii quyt khiu ni ko di v cha tha ng
(mean=3.11). Ngoi ra, cc bin o Vng ph sng v Tng i h tr c lch chun
kh cao (1.056 v 1.149) v kt qu phn tch ANOVA xc nhn c s khc bit trong nhn
thc gia khch hng ca cc mng di ng khc nhau i vi 02 bin o ny. Cc bin o
Ro cn cng c nh gi sai bit nhiu (mean=2.75->3.76), trong bin o Bt tin khi
i s in thoi nh gi kh cao (mean=3.76) chng t khch hng rt ngi chuyn i v
s b gin on thng tin lin lc. Ngc li, bin Quan h khch hng (mean=3.01) v S
quan tm ca nh cung cp (mean=2.75) c gi thp cho thy nh cung cp cha ch
trng cng tc chm sc khch hng. i vi S hp dn ca mng khc v cht lng
(mean=3.55), Gi cc r (mean=3.64) v Danh ting/Hnh nh (mean=3.41) c khch
hng nh gi cao. Khch hng nh gi S tha mn hi thp (mean=3.1) trong khi S trung
thnh li c nh gi kh cao (mean=3.64)
3.2 nh gi s b thang o:
T hp thang o Cht lng-Ro cn chuyn mng bao gm thang o Cht lng dch v
vi 05 thnh phn v 31 bin o lng ; thang o Ro cn chuyn mng vi 03 thnh phn
v 21 bin o lng. Kt qu phn tch tin cy thang o loi 02 bin (v c tng quan
bin tng nh hn 0.3) cn li 50 bin a vo phn tch EFA, cc thnh phn thang o sau
khi loi bin u c cc h s Cronbach Alpha > 0.6 t yu cu.
3.3. Phn tch nhn t khm ph (EFA)
S dng phn tch nhn t bng SPSS 13.0 cho kt qu EFA nh sau: thnh phn Dch v gia
tng v thnh phn Quan h khch hng c h s ti (Factor Loading) nh hn 0.5 nn b loi.
Thang o Cht lng dch v cn li 04 thnh phn l: Cht lng cuc gi, Cu trc gi
cc, Dch v khch hng v S thun tin. Thang o Ro cn chuyn mng cn li 02 thnh
phn l: Chi ph thch nghi, S hp dn ca mng khc.
3.4. Phn tch nhn t khng nh (CFA): Kt qu s dng phn mm AMOS 6.0 tin
hnh phn tch CFA cc thang o khi nim, kim nghim ph hp ca m hnh l thuyt
v kim nh cc gi thuyt nh sau:
Kim nghim m hnh t hp thang o Cht lng Ro cn
a) Kt qu phn tch nhn t khng nh (CFA): Cc h s ti t cc bin quan st ln cc

95


b) Cc ch s ph hp m hnh sau khi iu chnh t yu cu (Bng 1). Nh vy 04 thnh
phn ca Cht lng dch v v 02 thnh phn ca Ro cn chuyn mng t c tnh n
nguyn[8].
Bng 1: So snh ph hp ca m hnh trc v sau khi hiu chnh
Cc ch s nh gi
M hnh ban u
M hnh hiu chnh
2
(df)
747.871 (155)
423.269 (152)
2/ df
4.82
2.78
.000
.000
p
.921
.956
GFI
.893
.939
AGFI
.879
.943
TLI
.901
.955
CFI
.065
.044
RMSEA
2
Ghi ch: cc ch s c bn nh gi m hnh gm: Fmin = / df: Chi-square/bc t do;
GFI: Goodness-of-Fit Index; AGFI: Adjusted GFI; TLI: Tucker-Lewis Coefficient; CFI:
Comparative Fit Index; RMSEA: Root Mean Square Error of Approximation.
M hnh c cc ch s 2/ df < 3 ; GFI, AGFI, TLI, CFI >.9 v RMSEA <.06 c xem l m
hnh ph hp vi d liu th trng)[1,3,5].
c) H s tng quan ca cc khi nim thnh phn u < 1 v c ngha (p<.05) , do cc
khi nim ny t gi tr phn bit[8].
Kim nghim m hnh thang o Tho mn v Trung thnh
Thang o mc tho mn ca khch hng l thang o n hng, c o lng bng 02
bin quan st. M hnh thang o ny c kim nh bng CFA v kt qu cho thy m hnh
ny ph hp vi b d liu kho st th trng (2 = 0, 2/ df = 0 p = .000; Cc ch s AGFI =
1, GFI = 1, TLI= 1 , CFI = 1 v RMSEA = .000). Thang o ny c h s tin cy tng hp l
.794 v phng sai trch c l 82.9%. Cc h s ti ca thang o ny u kh cao (nh nht
l Q9b = .80). V vy, thang o mc tho mn ca khch hng t c gi tr hi t v
tnh n nguyn[8].
Tng t thang o mc trung thnh ca khch hng c o bng 03 bin quan st. Kt
qu kim nh m hnh ban u cho thy m hnh ph hp tt vi d liu th trng ( 2 =
2.688, 2/df = 1.34, p = .261; Cc ch s GFI = .998 , TLI = .998, CFI = .99 v RMSEA =
.019). Thang o c h s tin cy tng hp l .755 v phng sai trch c l 67.5%. Cc
trng s thang o u chp nhn c (nh nht l Q11b = .61) . Vy thang o mc trung
thnh ca khch hng cng t c gi tr hi t v tnh n nguyn [8].
Kim nghim ph hp ca m hnh l thuyt bng SEM:
Kt qu kim nh CFA bng phn mm AMOS thc hin theo nguyn tc iu chnh cc
quan h c MI > 4 (MI-Indice Modification, l h s iu chnh ng vi s thay i ca 2
trn mt bc t do) nhng s iu chnh ny phi m bo ph hp v mt c s l thuyt v
bao hm ngha v mt thc tin. Sau khi thc hin iu chnh, kt qu CFA cho thy cc ch
s nh gi ph hp ca m hnh l thuyt u c ci thin ng k nh hnh 1 ( 2/df =
2.37; GFI=.94; TLI=.94; CFI=.95; RMSEA = .039). V vy m hnh ny ph hp vi d liu
th trng. Hn na cc h s hi quy gia khi nim S tha mn v S trung thnh, cc h
s hi quy gia S tha mn , S trung thnh vi cc thnh phn ca chng l Cht lng
dch v v Ro cn chuyn i u nh hn 1 v khc 0 mt cch c ngha v mt thng k

96

(Hnh 1). V vy, c th kt lun l cc thnh phn o lng S tha mn, Ro cn v S

trung thnh vi cc thnh phn ca chng t c gi tr phn bit[8].

Hnh 1: Kt qu kim nh m hnh l thuyt

Kim nghim c lng m hnh bng phn tch BOOSTRAP
nh gi tnh bn vng ca m hnh l thuyt, phng php phn tch Boostrap c s
dng. y l phng php ly mu lp li c thay th t mu ban u (N=917), trong mu
ban u ng vai tr m ng (Schumacker& Lomax, 1996). S ln ly mu lp li trong
nghin cu c chn l B = 1.500 ln, kt qu c lng vi B ln t N mu c tnh
trung bnh v gi tr ny c xu hng gn vi c lng ca tng th. Kt qu chnh ca
c lng (bias) v sai lch chun ca n c gi tr nh v n nh cho php kt lun rng cc
c lng ML p dng trong m hnh l tin cy v c dng cho cc kim nh gi thuyt
tip theo.
3.5 Kim nh m hnh hi quy cu trc
Kim nh gi thuyt tng quan

Kt qu kim nh m hnh l thuyt (Hnh 2) cho thy gia cc khi nim (thnh phn) c
quan h (tng quan) vi nhau mt cch ngha nhng vn t gi tr phn bit, ngha l
97

c
Kim nh gi thuyt quan h nhn qu

Hnh 2: Kt qu kim nh m hnh cu trc

Nhn xt: T kt qu kim nh gi thuyt ca m hnh cu trc (hnh 2) cho thy
- Cc thnh phn Cht lng dch v c tc ng tch cc (trc tip) ln S tha mn v tch
cc (gin tip) ln S trung thnh l: Cht lng cuc gi (.40), Gi cc(.23) v Dch v
khch hng (.11),
- S thun tin v Chi ph thch nghi tc ng tch cc (trc tip) ln S trung thnh v Ro
cn.
- S hp dn ca mng khc c tc ng tiu cc (trc tip) lm gim ng thi c S tha
mn, S trung thnh v Ro cn,
- S trung thnh c gii thch bi s tho mn (.66) v Ro cn (.17) tng ng vi 79%
v 21%.
3.6. nh gi s khc bit c ngha gia cc nhm khch hng (Bng 2)
Bng 2: Kt qu phn tch ANOVA gia cc nhm khch hng

YU T
CHT LNG
CUC GI
GI CC

NH GI CAO/R
- Vinaphone, MobiFone
- Nhn vin, hc sinh-sinh vin
- Nam, Ln tui, Hc vn thp,V
tr x hi thp.
- Viettel Mobile
- Thu bao tr trc
DCH V KHCH - Ln tui
HNG
THUN TIN
- Thu bao tr trc
CHI PH
- VinaPhone
THCH NGHI
- Thu bao tr sau

NH GI THP/T

- Viettel Mobile
- Nh qun l
- N, Tr tui, Hc vn cao, V tr x
hi cao.
- MobiFone, VinaPhone
- Thu bao tr sau
- Tr tui
- Thu bao tr sau
- MobiFone
- Thu bao tr trc

98

THA MN
TRUNG THNH

- MobiFone
- VinaPhone
- Thi gian s dng dch v di

- VinaPhone
- MobiFone
- Thi gian s dng dch v ngn.

IV. KT LUN
4.1. Kt qu nghin cu
ng gp ca nghin cu ny l xy dng m hnh l thuyt, kim nh cc gi thuyt v
cung cp mt thang o mi trong lnh vc TTD ti Vit Nam, lng ho cng tc ng
ca cc yu t thnh phn, trong ng ch l: thnh phn Cht lng dch v vn ng
vai tr quan trng (0.4) so vi Gi cc (0.23) v Dch v khch hng (0.11); S thun tin
tc ng trc tip ln S trung thnh m khng thng qua s tho mn, S hp dn ca mng
khc c tc ng tiu cc n c s tho mn v s trung thnh ca khch hng mng hin
ti; tc ng ca nhn t S tho mn chim 79% so vi Ro cn chuyn mng chim 21%
ln S trung thnh. Kt qu nghin cu cng ph hp vi mt s nghin cu ti cc th
trng i Loan[13] v Hn Quc[7]. Kt qu phn tch ANOVA c tng kt ti Bng 2
cn cung cp mt s thng tin hu ch cho cc nh qun l trong xy dng chin lc theo
phn khc th trng.
4.2. Hm i nh qun tr dch v
Kt qu nghin cu cho thy: tng cng s trung thnh ca khch hng th tng s tha
mn ca h i vi cht lng dch v l cha m cn phi tng ro cn chuyn mng
gi khch hng bng cch tng ro cn ni sinh (chi ph thch nghi) v gim nh hng ca
thnh phn ngoi sinh (s hp dn ca mng khc). V nguyn tc, doanh nghip (DN) cn
phi hp thc hin cc gii php theo nh m hnh cu trc (Hnh 2). y chnh l cc c
tnh th hai ca m hnh Kano[2] m cc nh qun tr cn quan tm.
Mt kt qu ng c lu na l: khch hng VinaPhone mc d c mc tha mn
thp nhng li c mc trung thnh kh cao. iu ny c gii thch bng: a) Chi ph
thch nghi c khch hng nh gi cao t kt qu thng k m t v t phn tch
ANOVA; b) S thun tin do ang c tha hng knh bn hng v chm sc khch
hng ti cc Bu in tnh, thnh (BTT). Chi ph thch nghi v S thun tin c nh gi
cao chnh l nguyn nhn lm tng S trung thnh. Mc d yu t Chi ph thch nghi hin
ang c nh gi cao (khch hng ngi chuyn sang mng khc) nhng yu t ny s b
suy gim rt nhiu trong tng lai khi B BCVT cho php cc mng lin kt c s d liu
chung v khch hng chuyn mng c gi nguyn s in thoi. Cn S thun tin cng s
b hn ch khi VinaPhone tin hnh c phn ho khng cn da vo knh phn phi ca cc
BTT nh hin nay. Do vy, Vinaphone cn ch ng xy dng ro cn mang tnh tnh cc
v bn vng hn. Ngc li, S hp dn ca mng khc c tc ng tiu cc lm gim c S
tho mn v S trung thnh. Cho nn, lm gim hiu ng S hp dn ca mng khc, cc
DN cn n lc thc hin gii php to li th cnh tranh nh sau:

4.3. Hm i vi vic hoch nh chnh sch

T kt qu nghin cu, c mt s xut i vi vic hoch nh chnh sch:

a) Kin ngh chnh ph rt ngn thi gian khu hao thit b ph hp vi chu k cng ngh
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b) C mc pht hnh chnh i vi DN ch tp trung pht trin thu bao bng gim
gi/khuyn mi m khng m bo cht lng dch v v cng khai kt qu thanh tra cht
lng dch v ca cc nh cung cp trn cc phng tin thng tin i chng.
c) Gim st quy trnh qun l cht lng dch v theo Quyt nh 33/2006/Q-BBCVT ca
B BCVT i vi ch tiu cht lng ng k ca cc nh cung cp dch v TTD bo v li
ch cho ngi tiu dng, m bo th trng pht trin bn vng,
d) Khuyn khch cc nh cung cp dch v s dng chung h tng mng v c s d liu
khch hng nh kinh nghim ti mt s nc trn th gii v khu vc (Hn Quc, i Loan)
nhm tit kim ti nguyn vin thng, gim t l khch hng chuyn mng, gim lng ph u
t v tng sc mnh cho ton ngnh trc khi m ca th trng hi nhp.
TI LIU THAM KHO
[1]. Bollen, K.A (1989), Structural Equation with Latent Variables, New York: John Wiley &
Sons.
[2]. Bi Nguyn Hng, Nguyn Thy Qunh Loan (2004), Qun l cht lng, NXB i hc
Quc gia TP.HCM,
[3]. Hair et al (2000), Applied Multivariate Statistics, Week 11, chap 11.
[4]. Hong Trng (2005), Phn tch d liu nghin cu vi SPSS, NXB thng k.
[5]. James L. Arbuckle(2005), Amos 6.0 Users Guide, Copyright 19952005 by Amos
Development Corporation, http://amosdevelopment.com
[6]. J.J. Hox (2003), An Introduction to Structural Equation Modeling, Family Science
Review, 11, 354-373.
[7]. M-K. Kim et al., (2004), The effects of customer satisfaction and switching barrier on
customer loyalty in Korean mobile telecommunication services, Telecommunications Policy
28, (145-159)
[8]. Nguyn nh Th v cc thnh vin (2003), o lng cht lng dch v vui chi gii tr
ngoi tri TP.HCM, ti nghin cu khoa hc, m s CS2003-19
[9]. Ofir Turel & Alexander Serenko (2004), User Satisfaction with Mobile Services in
Canada, Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Mobile Business,
[10]. Phm c K, Bi Nguyn Hng, Nghin cu m hnh s trung thnh ca khch hng
trong lnh vc dch v TTD ti Vit Nam, Tp ch BCVT&CNTT, 02/2007
[11]. Rich Zimmerman & Olga Dekhtyar (2004), AMOS-Analysis of Moment Structures,
University of Kentucky.
[12]. Scott MacLean, Kevin Gray (1998), Structural Equation Modeling in Marketing
Research, Jounal of the Australian Market Research Society.
[13]. Shih-Ping JENG (2003), Customer Loyalty in Competitive Market: Alternative
Attractiveness, Switching Cost, and Satisfaction Effects, Fu Jen Catholic University
[14]. Trn Xun Kim, Nguyn Vn Thi (2004), Nghin cu tip th, NXB Thng k.
Tp ch BCVT&CNTT thng 4/2007
http://opac.lrc.ctu.edu.vn/pdoc/15/4-Nghiencuusutrungthanhcuakhachhang.pdf

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