(As on 17-07-2017)

Commodity Profile for Rice- July, 2017

Contents

1. Rice Estimates for India (Crop Year: October 2016- September 2017)............................... 2
2. Rice Estimates for World ..................................................................................................... 2
3. India’s Rice Production and Area under Cultivation............................................................ 3
4. Global Production ................................................................................................................. 3
5. Major Exporting and Importing Countries of Rice in the world .......................................... 4
6. India’s Major Export Destinations for Basmati as well as Non-basmati Rice ..................... 5
7. India’s Trade Flow for Rice during 2009-10 to 2016-17 .................................................... 6
8. Domestic and International Price Movement for Long White Rice 25% Broken ................ 6
9. Minimum Support Price (MSP) for Rice during 2012-13 to 2016-17 ................................. 7
10.1 Rice arrivals in Major Domestic Mandis ........................................................................... 7
10.2 Price Movement for Rice in Major Domestic Mandis ........................................................ 8
11 Future Prices for Rice……………………………………………………………………….8
12. Trade Policy ........................................................................................................................... 9
12.1 Export Policy ....................................................................................................................... 9
12.2 Import Policy ....................................................................................................................... 9
13. Significant changes for the month …………… ………………………… …………….. 9

1|Commodity Profile for Rice -July, 2017.

 1. Rice Estimates for India (Crop Year: October 2016- September 2017)
(Unit: Million Tonnes)
Table-1: Rice Production, Trade and Availability
2016-17 May, 2017
2016-17 Particular Source
(Estimated)
Opening Stock ( beginning of the crop
14.16 17.27 22.82 DoF & PD
year)
104.32 109.15** Production 109.15** D&ES
0 0 Total Imports 0.00* DoC
118.48 126.42 Availability 131.97
10.34 11.13$ Total Export 7.14* DoC
17.27 NA Ending Stock in Central Pool 22.10*** DoF & PD
Total Available for domestic
90.87 NA 102.73
consumption
Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution (DoF&PD), Department of Commerce (DoC), Directorate of
Economics & Statistics (D&ES), Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC).
o * The figure of export and import is for October 16- May, 2017.
o ** Production as per 3rd advance estimate for 2016-17 released on 09.05.2017 by DES.
o *** FCI stocks ending in May, 2017 are 22.10 million Tons against 20.79 million Tons in corresponding period
last year.
o $ During 2016-17 Export of non-basmati and basmati rice has been assumed to be 7.30 million tones and 3.83
million tons respectively on the basis of last three average .
o Availability: opening stock in central pool plus production plus Imports; Total Availability for Domestic
Consumption: Availability minus (total export plus ending stock in central pool).
o For preparing estimate for 2016-17, production as estimated by DES and export is average of last three years &
ending stock is not available.

2. Rice Estimates for World

(Unit: Million Tonnes)
Table-2: Production, Trade, Consumption and Stock of Rice
Particulars 2014-15 2015-16 (Estimated ) 2016-17
(Forecast)
Production 480 473 483
Trade 42 39 40
Consumption 476 475 482
Carry Over Stock 120 118 119
Source: International Grains Council (IGC)

 Global rice production and trade in 2016-17 are forecasted to be increased by 2.11% and 5.56%
respectively over previous year respectively. The world consumption is also anticipated to up
about 1.47%. Slightly changes increased (0.85%) has been forecasted in global carry over stock
in 2016-17.

2|Commodity Profile for Rice -July, 2017.

3. India’s Rice Production and Area under Cultivation

Figur 1: India Rice Area and Production

47 120
Area (in Million Hectares)

Production(in Million Tonnes)

45 110
43 100
41
90
39
37 80
35 70

Area Production

Source: Directorate of Economics & Statistics (D&ES)

*3rd advance estimates
 India’s rice production has increased at CAGR of 1.43 percent during 2002-03 and 2016-17.
 Area under rice cultivation has not increased substantially during same period.

4. Global Production
Figur 2 : Major Rice producing countries(in Mn Tn)
160
140
Million Tonnes

120
100
80
60
40
20
0

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Source: United State Department of Agriculture

 China was the leading rice producer followed by India, Indonesia and Bangladesh in 2016-17.

3|Commodity Profile for Rice -July, 2017.

5. Major Exporting and Importing Countries of Rice in the world

Figur 3: Major Rice Exporting Countries

12.00
10.00
Million Tonnes

8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
India Thailand Viet Nam Pakistan USA Uruguay Brazil Italy Argentina Paraguay

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Source: Comtrade

 India was the largest exporter of rice in 2015-16 followed by Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan.

Fingure 4: Major Rice Importing Countries

4.00
3.50
3.00
Million Tonnes

2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
China Saudi Iraq Benin Iran UAE Nigeria USA UK France
Arabia

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Source: Comtrade

 China was the leading importer in 2015-16 followed by Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

4|Commodity Profile for Rice -July, 2017.

6. India’s Major Export Destinations for Basmati as well as Non-basmati Rice

1000
Figure 5: Basmati Rice 80
900

Unit Value: Rs. Thousand/Tonnes

70
Export: Thousand Tonnes

800
60
700
600 50
500 40
400 30
300
20
200
100 10
0 0
Saudi Iran U AE Iraq Kuwait UK Yemen USA Oman Qatar
Arab

2015-16 (Qty) 2016-17(Qty) 2015-16 (Unit Value) 2016-17 (Unit Value)

Source: Department of Commerce

 2016-17, Saudi Arab was the leading importing country for Basmati rice from India followed by
Iran and UAE.
 Unit price of basmati rice has decreased in 2016-17 over the previous years.

Figure 6: Non-Basmati Rice

1000.0 50

Unit Value : Rs. Thousand

Export : Thousand Tonnes

800.0 40
600.0 30

/Tonnes
400.0 20
200.0 10
0.0 0
Benin Senegal Nepal Guinea Cote d' Somalia Iraq U AE South Liberia
Ivoire Africa

2015-16 (Qty) 2016-17(Qty) 2015-16 (Unit Value) 2016-17 (Unit Value)

Source: Department of Commerce

 In 2016-17, Benin, Senegal, and Nepal were amongst India’s top three importing countries for
non-basmati.
 In 2016-17, Senegal imports from India was less than over previous year. It may be due to slightly
increase in the unit price to Rs. 18.77 thousand per Tons in 2016-17 from Rs. 17.55 thousand per
Tons in 2015-16

5|Commodity Profile for Rice -July, 2017.

7. India’s Trade Flow for Rice during 2010-11 to 2017-18
(Unit: Million Tonnes)
Table 3: India’s Trade Flow for Rice
Export Import
Year
Basmati Non-basmati Basmati Non-basmati
2011-12 3.18 4.00 0 0
2012-13 3.50 6.64 0 0
2013-14 3.76 7.00 0 0
2014-15 3.70 8.23 0 0
2015-16 4.04 6.37 0 0
2016-17 4.10 6.81 0 0
2017-18(April-May) 0.79 1.02 0 0
Source: Department of Commerce

 India exported substantial quantity of both Basmati as well as Non-basmati rice to the world,
and import in the same categories were insignificant during 2011-12 and 2017-18 (April-
May).

8. Domestic and International Price Movement for Long White Rice 25% Broken
Figure 7: Thailand, Vietnam and India Long White Rice 25% Broken (USD/MT)
460.00
440.00
420.00
400.00
380.00
360.00
340.00
320.00
300.00
Feb-17
Feb-17
Oct-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Sep-15
Sep-15
Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16
Apr-15

Sep-16

Apr-17
Apr-17
Feb-15

Jul-15
Jul-15

Apr-16
Jan-16

Jul-16
Jul-16
May-15
May-15

Aug-15

Jan-16
Mar-16
Mar-16
Jan-15
Mar-15
Mar-15

Jun-15

Nov-15
Nov-15

May-16
May-16

Aug-16
Aug-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17
Jun-16

Nov-16

Jun-17

Thailand Vietnam India

Source: Oryza (A website on rice)

 The price of the Indian long grain high quality white rice is showing a mixed trend.

6|Commodity Profile for Rice -July, 2017.

9. Minimum Support Price (MSP) for Rice (Paddy) during 2013-14 to 2017-18
Table 4: MSP for Rice (Paddy) (Unit: Rs/ Quintal)
Rice Quality 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Common 1310 1360 1410 1470 1550
Grade ‘A’ 1345 1400 1450 1510 1590
Source: Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP)

 MSP for both quality of Paddy (see table 4) has increased during 2013-14 to 2017-18. This
figure has increased by 18 percent in the last 5 years.

10.1 Rice arrivals in Major Domestic Mandis.

(Unit in Tonnes)
% %
June, 2017 May, 2017 June-2016 Change(Over Change(Over
(Cumulative) (Cumulative) (Cumulative) Previous Previous
Mandi Month) year)
Burdwan 134928 124256 112566 8.59 19.87
Midnapore 4639 4264 3912 8.80 18.58
Banaganapalli 15833 15688 15307 0.93 3.44
Ramachandrapuram 4028 3733 3388 7.90 18.89
Devariya 33312 31612 26990 5.38 23.42
Sitapur 28709 28352 26690 1.26 7.56
Mysore 69738 60528 53722 15.22 29.81
Raichur 186457 178022 66636 4.74 179.82
Villupuram - NA - - -
Thiruchirappalli - NA - - -
Source: Agmarknet

 The figure for rice arrivals in major mandis shows that Burdwan and Raichur were leading in
June, 2017.

7|Commodity Profile for Rice -July, 2017.

10.2 Price Movement for Rice in Major Domestic Mandis

(Unit: Rs/Quintal)
Table 6 : Price Movement for Rice in Major domestic Mandis
Mandi Prices Prices Prices % %
June-2017 May-2017 June-2016 Change(Over Change(Over
Previous Previous
Month) year)
Burdwan 2296 2263 2076 1.46 10.62
Midnapore 2603 2391 2500 8.89 4.16
Banaganapalli 3525 3500 2200 0.71 60.23
Ramachandrapuram 4350 4389 3900 -0.90 11.54
Devariya 2190 2159 2116 1.44 3.48
Sitapur 2237 2235 2205 0.08 1.42
Mysore 3503 3638 2687 -3.72 30.35
Raichur 2485 2398 2183 3.63 13.79
Villupuram NR NR NR - -
Thiruchirappalli NR NR NR - -
Source: Agmarknet
 Domestic price movement in major mandies in India indicates growth in price in June, 2017
over the same period of the previous year.

11. Future Prices for Rice

(Unit: US$/Tonnes)
Table 7 : Future prices for Rice
Contract 10.07.17 One week ago One month ago 3 month ago 6 month ago % change
(03.07.17) (03.06.17 ) (03.04.17) (03.01.17) over 6
Months
Sept, 17 258.38 240.96 245.15 222.00 211.64 22.08
Nov, 17 264.33 260.36 251.10 227.74 217.15 21.73
Jan, 18 268.96 264.99 255.73 231.92 221.56 21.39
Mar, 18 273.37 269.40 258.60 235.23 221.56 23.38
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)

 Futures prices for rice are expected to increase over the previous year as shown in Table 7

8|Commodity Profile for Rice -July, 2017.

12. Trade Policy
12.1 Export Policy: Export of rice (except seed quality and other rice in husk) is free, subject to
condition circulated by DGFT. *
12.2 Import Policy: Import of seeds is restricted. Whereas, import of rice for human
consumption is permitted through State Trading Enterprises
Table 8: Import Duty
Bound Standard Applied
Exim Code Item Description Policy Duty Duty Duty
1006 10 10 Of Seed Quality Restricted 80 80 80
1006 10 90 Other Import 80 80 80
1006 20 00 Husked (brown) Rice allowed 80 80 80
1006 30 10 Rice, parboiled through FCI 70 70 70
1006 30 20 Basmati rice 70 70 70
1006 30 90 Other 70 70 70
1006 40 00 Broken rice 80 80 80

Source: Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), Department of Revenue and World Trade Organization (WTO)

*The export of rice of seed quality and other rice in husk (paddy) has been placed from Free to
Restricted category vide DGFT’s notification no. 23/2015-20 dated 7th October2015

13. Significant Changes for the Month: NIL

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from various
sources believed to be reliable. This Department will not be liable for any losses and damages in connection
with the uses of the information provided in the commodity profile.

9|Commodity Profile for Rice -July, 2017.