Journal of South American Earth Sciences 29 (2010) 161–170

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Journal of South American Earth Sciences

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TITAN2D simulations of pyroclastic flows at Cerro Machín Volcano, Colombia:

Hazard implications
H.F. Murcia a,b,*, M.F. Sheridan c, J.L. Macías b, G.P. Cortés a
a
Observatorio Vulcanológico y Sismológico de Manizales, INGEOMINAS, Manizales, Colombia
b
Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Coyoacán 04510 D.F., Mexico
c
Department of Geology, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York, USA

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Cerro Machín is a dacitic tuff ring located in the central part of the Colombian Andes. It lies at the south-
Received 22 December 2008 ern end of the Cerro Bravo–Cerro Machín volcanic belt. This volcano has experienced at least six major
Accepted 18 September 2009 explosive eruptions during the last 5000 years. These eruptions have generated pyroclastic flows associ-
ated with Plinian activity that have traveled up to 8 km from the crater, and pyroclastic flows associated
with Vulcanian activity with shorter runouts of 5 km from the source. Today, some 21,000 people live
Keywords: within a 8 km radius of Cerro Machín. The volcano is active with fumaroles and has shown increasing
TITAN2D
seismic activity since 2004, and therefore represents a potentially increasing threat to the local popula-
Pyroclastic flows
Volcanic hazard
tion. To evaluate the possible effects of future eruptions that may generate pyroclastic density currents
Cerro Machín Volcano controlled by granular flow dynamics we performed flow simulations with the TITAN2D code. These sim-
Colombia ulations were run in all directions around the volcano, using the input parameters of the largest eruption
reported. The results show that an eruption of 0.3 km3 of pyroclastic flows from a collapsing Plinian col-
umn would travel up to 9 km from the vent, emplacing a deposit thicker than 60 m within the Toche
River valley. Deposits >45 m thick can be expected in the valleys of San Juan, Santa Marta, and Azufral
creeks, while 30 m thick deposits could accumulate within the drainages of the Tochecito, Bermellón,
and Coello Rivers. A minimum area of 56 km2 could be affected directly by this kind of eruption. In com-
parison, Vulcanian column-collapse pyroclastic flows of 0.1 km3 would travel up to 6 km from the vent
depositing >45 m thick debris inside the Toche River valley and more than 30 m inside the valleys of
San Juan, Santa Marta, and Azufral creeks. The minimum area that could be affected directly by this kind
of eruption is 33 km2. The distribution and thickness of the deposits obtained by these simulations are
consistent with the hazard map presented by INGEOMINAS (Geological Survey of Colombia) in 2002.
The composite map of the simulated flow deposits suggests that after major explosive events such as
these, the generation of lahars is probable.
Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Cerro Machín Volcano (CMV) is one of the most dangerous ac-
tive volcanoes in Colombia. Its hazard map was published by the
Geological Survey of Colombia (INGEOMINAS) in 2002 (Méndez
et al., 2002). This map is based on the results of many studies
(Cepeda et al., 1995, 1996, 1999a,b; Méndez, 1999, 2001, 2002;
Rueda, 2000; Cortés, 2001a,b) that mainly examine the detailed
distribution of pyroclastic fall, surge and flow deposits, and lahars
emplaced around the volcano during the past 10,000 years. With
this hazard map INGEOMINAS has demonstrated the magnitude
of past and potentially future eruptions of a poorly-known volcano
* Corresponding author. Address: Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional
Autónoma de México, Coyoacán 04510 D.F., Mexico.
E-mail addresses: hugofmurcia@gmail.com, hmurcia@ingeominas.gov.co (H.F.
Murcia).
in the Colombian Andes. Recent studies have improved the knowl-
edge of the eruptive history of the volcano (Pinilla and Pino, 2002;
Domínguez, 2003; Rueda, 2005) and lahar generation (Hurtado and
Murcia, 2003; Murcia et al., 2008a). It is now clear that Machín Vol-
cano has produced six major dacitic eruptions during the past
5000 years and has generated lahars running out more than
100 km. The last eruption, that occurred 900 years ago, produced
ash fall and pyroclastic flows around the volcano. The effects of
these eruptions are unknown by local villagers due to the absence
of historical activity. Recent shallow earthquake swarms reported
in April 2004 (GVP, 2004) accompanied by ground deformation,
variations in temperature and cation composition of hot springs,
and radon outputs prompted scientists to consider the volcano in
a pre-crisis period (Londoño et al., 2007). Currently, CMV exhibits
hydrothermal activity, and since 2004, has increased its seismicity
which it is constantly monitored by INGEOMINAS.

0895-9811/$ - see front matter Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jsames.2009.09.005
162 H.F. Murcia et al. / Journal of South American Earth Sciences 29 (2010) 161–170
In this paper we used the volcanic stratigraphy and the eruptive
dynamics of past eruptions of CMV (Rueda, 2005) to simulate gran-
ular flows with the TITAN2D code (Patra et al., 2005; Sheridan
et al., 2005; TITAN2D User Guide, 2007) and interpreted the results
to evaluate the direct effects around the volcano in terms of depos-
its thicknesses. Today, we have better information of the volcano
(volume and distribution of the deposits) and we rely on a code
that is able to be applied with detailed and realistic electronic rep-
resentations. The results of the simulations were compared with
the boundaries shown in the hazard map of the volcano (Méndez
et al., 2002) as well as hazard areas defined previously (Obando
and Ramos, 2003; Obando et al., 2003), using the FLOW3D code
(Kover, 1995; Sheridan and Kover, 1996).
2. Cerro Machín Volcano
CMV is located in the central part of the Colombian Andes (lat
4°290 N; long 75°230 W; 2750 m asl). It is situated 150 km southwest
of Bogotá, and 17 km northwest of Ibagué (Fig. 1A). CMV is located
at the intersection of the Cajamarca and Machín faults with N20°E
and N42°W trends, respectively (Rueda, 2005). Its edifice was built
over metamorphic rocks belonging to the Cajamarca Complex
(Cepeda et al., 1995), and its origin is related to the subduction
of the Nazca Oceanic Plate below the South America Continental
Plate (Hall and Wood, 1985). The absence of an ice-cap and its
low relief means that Machín is often overlooked as a minor edifice
in the Cerro Bravo–Cerro Machín volcanic belt. However, the vol-
cano is considered one of the potentially most dangerous active
volcanoes of Colombia, taking into account its high explosive po-
tential, dacitic composition and magnitude of past eruptions
(Cortés, 2001a). It has a 2.4 km wide tuff ring crater opened to
the southwest that hosts a complex of dacitic lava domes (Fig. 1B).
Fig. 1. (A) Location map showing the three groups of active volcanoes in Colombia. CMV is located in the northern group. (B) SPOT image showing the morphology of the
volcano with its crater and three internal domes (image base provided by Jair Ramirez – INGEOMINAS – Colombia). Solid arrows show the crater rim while dashed arrows
show the domes.
2.1. Stratigraphic summary
Rueda (2005), in the most recent study concerning the pyroclas-
tic activity of the volcano, defined the following six units or erup-
tive events that occurred during the last 5000 years. In detail these
units consist of: Espartillal (5000 years ago), P0 (4600 years ago)
and P1 (3600 years ago) fall, surge, and pyroclastic pumice flow
deposits; El Guaico (2600 years ago) block-and-ash, and pyroclas-
tic pumice flow deposits; P2 (1200 years ago) fall and pyroclastic
pumice flow deposits; and the Anillo (900 years ago) fall, and
block-and-ash pyroclastic flow deposits. The pyroclastic flow
deposits associated with the Espartillal, P0, P1 and P2 events were
produced by Plinian eruptions. In contrast the pyroclastic flow
deposits associated with the El Guaico and Anillo events were gen-
erated by the destruction of summit lava domes during Vulcanian
activity. Each of these units, with the exception of the Espartillal,
can be correlated with five lahars deposits emplaced tens of kilo-
meters downstream from the volcano in the El Espinal and Guamo
volcaniclastic fans (Cortés, 2001a,b; Murcia et al., 2008a). Table 1
shows some important characteristics of these pyroclastic flow
and surge deposits.
2.2. Hydrography
CMV is drained by the Santa Marta Creek to the east, San Juan
Creek to the north, and Toche River to the west and southwest.
The drainage of the Toche River is captured by the Bermellón River
after which it is called the Coello River (Fig. 2). The latter flows in a
NNW–SSE direction for about 88 km prior to the confluence with
the Magdalena River. Finally, the perennial flow of the Magdalena
River continues in a northward direction for at least 1400 km
where it debouches into the Atlantic Ocean.
 H.F. Murcia et al. / Journal of South American Earth Sciences 29 (2010) 161–170 163

Table 1
Parameters of surge and pyroclastic flow deposits of Cerro Machín Volcano for the six eruptive units described during the past 5000 years (Rueda, 2005).

Eruptive unit Age (years ago) Length (km) Max. thickness (m) Area (km2) Volume (km3) Minimum pulses of pyroclastic flows
Espartillal 5000 8 40 2.8 0.11 2
P0 4600 7 50 1.7 0.1 4
P1 3600 6 100 18 1.8 6
El Guaico 2600 5 50 4.5 0.3 3
P2 1200 – 40 2.2 0.1 1
Anillo 900 – 1 19 0.02 2

Fig. 2. Shaded relief map of CMV and surrounding areas obtained with contour intervals of 50 m. Note the rivers, urban communities and roads. The main road, corresponds
to one of the most important roads in the country. (The yellow names represent small villages or hamlets, and the blue names are the names of the creeks; the most important
names in the area are in white).

2.3. Nearby population hosts the largest population with 19,789 people, according to the
last census of Colombia (DANE, 2005). The rest of the population
Some 21,000 people live within a radius of 8 km around CMV. is dispersed in small villages and hamlets including: Yerbabuena,
The largest town, Cajamarca, located 7 km to the SW of the volcano La Estrella, La Escarcha, El Copal, Toche, La Aurora and El Rodeo
164 H.F. Murcia et al. / Journal of South American Earth Sciences 29 (2010) 161–170
to the north, El Guaico, El Paraiso, San Lorenzo Alto, San Lorenzo
Bajo, Chupadero y Las Violetas to the south, Santa Maria, La Aurora,
El Pando and Tapias to the east, and Santa Ana y Aguacaliente to
the west (Fig. 2). The largest city near the volcano is Ibagué which
has 468,647 inhabitants (DANE, 2005) and lies at 17 km to the
southeast.
2.4. Previous simulations
The first computational analysis of Cerro Machín for hazard
evaluation was performed by INGEOMINAS in 1996 using
FLOW3D; however these results were not published. After that,
Obando and Ramos (2003) and Obando et al. (2003) applied the
same code to simulate pyroclastic flows by using the results of pre-
vious stratigraphic studies (Méndez, 1999, 2001). The FLOW3D
model simulates gravity flows on a Digital Elevation Model
(DEM) that represents the topographic surface as a Triangulated
Irregular Network (TIN) of elevations (Kover, 1995). For this exer-
cise, Obando and Ramos (2003) and Obando et al. (2003) assumed
the energy line concept (Heim, 1932) to determine the H/L ratio or
Heim Coefficient, the viscosity was determined by trial and error
based on the distribution of the actual deposits, and velocities
resulting from different column-collapse heights (100, 120 and
150 m) of pyroclastic flows.
3. Flow simulations
In order to simulate the gravity-driven pyroclastic flows of CMV
we used the TITAN2D geophysical mass flow model, freely avail-
able from the Geophysical Mass Flow Group of the State University
of New York at Buffalo, USA (www.gmfg.buffalo.edu). This model is
a computer program based on a ‘‘thin layer model” (that simulates
granular flows over digital elevation models (DEM) of natural ter-
rains displayed by an open-source GRASS Geographic Information
System (GIS) (v. TITAN2D User Guide, 2007). Input for the com-
puter code includes: simulation time, minimum thickness of the fi-
nal deposit, internal and bed friction angles, starting coordinates,
and initial speed and direction of the flow. Additionally, the pro-
gram allows the definition of the specific starting pile dimensions
(thickness and area -shape- for a static source) or a dynamic flow
source (extrusion flux rate, start and end time of the extrusion,
and area -shape- for the starting material). The outputs of the pro-
gram are flow depth and momentum in a dynamic representation.
These outputs yield the deposit limit, runout path, average flow
velocity, inferred deposit thickness, and travel time.
TITAN2D code has been widely applied at many volcanoes to
simulate pyroclastic flows, debris avalanches and lahars. However,
the results of most studies to date have only been shown in meet-
ings and include: Pyroclastic flows at Arenal Volcano, Costa Rica
(Berrocal and Malavassi, 2006), Mount Taranaki, New Zealand
(Procter et al., 2004a), Colima Volcano, México (Bursik et al.,
2005; Rupp et al., 2006), Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat
(Widiwijayanti et al., 2007; Ogburn et al., 2008; Hidayat et al.,
2008), Tacaná Volcanic Complex, México (Murcia, 2008), El Chichó-
n Volcano, México (Macías et al., 2008), Cerro Machín Volcano,
Colombia (Murcia et al., 2008b), Tungurahua Volcano, Ecuador
(Stinton, 2008), and Merapi, Java (Charbonnier and Gertisser,
2009); debris avalanches at Mount Rainier, USA (Sheridan et al.,
2005), Nevado de Toluca Volcano (Grieco et al., 2007) and
Jocotitlán Volcano, México (Groppelli et al., 2008); and lahars at
Popocatépetl Volcano, México (Muñoz et al., 2004), Misti Volcano,
Perú (Delaite et al., 2004; Stinton et al., 2004), Ruapehu Volcano,
New Zealand (Procter et al., 2004b; Cronin et al., 2004), Tacaná Vol-
canic Complex, México (Murcia, 2008) and at Montserrat Island
(Darnell et al., 2008).
For the purpose of this study, we ran more than 200 simulations
in order to get the best correlations with the geological record.
Here, we present the best results obtained in 16 simulations of
pyroclastic flows. To run the simulations, we use a DEM gridded
by 10  10 m cells produced from topographic contour lines every
50 m. We varied the volume, initial speed, initial direction and
simulated time, and we kept constant the starting coordinates,
internal and bed friction angles, and minimum thickness.
3.1. Values determination
In order to find the areas affected with a column-collapse event
produced by Plinian activity (i.e. P1 eruption), we combined graph-
ically the individual deposit thickness resulting from eight simula-
tions with different initial directions (starting at 0° with
increments of 45° -eight in total-). The initial site of the simula-
tions was set in a semi-circular arrangement from the crater center
that has UTM coordinates (854420E; 987950N). To find the areas
affected by a column-collapse from Vulcanian activity (i.e. El Gua-
ico eruption), we modified the input values according to this kind
of eruption. The main input values used for the two types of sim-
ulations are described below:
3.1.1. Simulated volume
We simulated pyroclastic flows in agreement with the volumes
reported by Rueda (2005). We split these volumes into the number
of pulses corresponding to outcrop scale observations and used the
largest value obtained. For pyroclastic flows produced by column-
collapse from Plinian activity (Espartillal, P0, P1 and P2 events) we
determined volumes between 0.3 and 0.025 km3, and for pyroclas-
tic flows produced by dome destruction from Vulcanian activity (El
Guaico and Anillo events) we determined volumes between 0.1
and 0.01 km3. The total volumes of eruptive units included that
of their associated pyroclastic surge deposits. However, due to
the thinness of this kind of deposits, their volume can be ignored
for our calculations. One exception is the pyroclastic surge deposits
of the Espartillal unit that reached a thickness of 4.75 m. However
it is important to take into account that pyroclastic surge are not
granular flows, and are therefore not simulated by TITAN2D.
3.1.2. Simulation time
The criterion to determine this value was in agreement with the
average final velocity of the simulation. For longer simulations, low
average final velocities were obtained. Different tests showed that
flow runouts were minimal when the velocity was less than 4 m/s.
Final velocities close to 3 m/s were obtained in each simulation.
3.1.3. Minimum thickness of the final deposit
The minimum area affected by pyroclastic flows includes the fi-
nal distribution of the deposits and the flow path without account-
ing for related pyroclastic surges. The final thickness of simulated
deposits varies depending on the topography, the substrate mate-
rial, the flow volume, among other factors. This figure needs to be
specified in the computer code because some of the computational
cells on the outer margin of the flows for each simulation time step
might contain a very thin layer of material that is physically unre-
alistic (Stinton, 2007). Abrupt lobate deposit terminations of be-
tween 0 and 1 m thick have been observed on pumice flow
deposits, at Lascar Volcano, Chile in the eruption of 1993, and on
Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in the eruption that began in
1995 (Calder et al. (2000) and Calder et al. (1999), respectively).
Stinton (2007) used minimum thicknesses of 0.5 and 1 m to simu-
late pyroclastic flows with volumes in the order of 106 m3. To ob-
tain realistic results, considering volumes on the order of 108 m3,
we used a minimum thickness of 1 m to confine the final distribu-
tion of the resulting deposits.
 H.F. Murcia et al. / Journal of South American Earth Sciences 29 (2010) 161–170 165

3.1.4. Internal friction angle
This parameter corresponds to the natural slope of the free-sur-
face that would form if a cylindrical pile of the granular material
was placed on a flat plane and allowed to collapse under its own
weight (TITAN2D User Guide, 2007). Sheridan et al. (2005) showed
that simulations are not sensitive to this parameter, within a rea-
sonable range of values. However, a large range of values have
been used for the friction angle in different studies. For example,
Pitman et al. (2003) used a value of 30° to model granular flows
on an inclined plane and over a realistic terrain, while Bursik
et al. (2005) used a value of 37° and Rupp et al. (2006) used values
between 30° and 37° to model block and ash pyroclastic flows at
Colima Volcano, México. Widiwijayanti et al. (2007) and Hidayat
et al. (2008) used values between 15° and 25° to model dome-col-
lapse pyroclastic flows in Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat,
while Macías et al. (2008) used a value of 30° to model column-
collapse pumice flows in El Chichón Volcano, México. In our simu-
lations, we also found that variation of the internal friction angle
did not influence the runout and final distribution of the deposits.
Thus, we used a constant value of 34° in all simulations, this value
being 1° higher than the natural angle of repose.
3.1.5. Bed friction angle
For different simulations, we found that the variation of this
parameter has a strong influence on the final distribution of the
deposits. This parameter corresponds to the minimum slope that
an inclined surface must obtain before the material placed on it be-
gins to slide from its static position (TITAN2D User Guide, 2007).
Stinton et al. (2004) in an application to Little Tahoma Peak Ava-
lanches, USA, found that the distribution of the deposits changed
greatly with the variation of the bed friction and demonstrated
the importance of using variable bed friction values, depending

Fig. 3. Shaded relief map showing the overlapped area and thicknesses resulting from eight combined TITAN2D simulations of pyroclastic flows formed by a 720 m Plinian
column-collapse, each one with a volume of 0.3 km3. The simulations were performed through 360° with initial directions separated by 45°.
166 H.F. Murcia et al. / Journal of South American Earth Sciences 29 (2010) 161–170

on the substrate. Pitman et al. (2003) used a value of 15° for their
experiments although considered that a value of 25° would be the-
oretically more realistic. Bursik et al. (2005) and Rupp et al. (2006)
used values of 20° and 20–28° for Colima Volcano, Widiwijayanti
et al. (2007) and Hidayat et al. (2008) used values of 5–12° for
Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, and Macías et al. (2008) used
values of 10–12° for El Chichón Volcano, México. We used a value
of 15° in all simulations because it was the most appropriate value
for the flow volumes 108 m3 according to experimental data of
GMFG and the distribution of pyroclastic flow deposits of Machín
Volcano.
3.1.6. Initial speed
The probable initial velocity of the pyroclastic flows was deter-
mined by using a simple relationship between potential and ki-
p
netic energy, where the initial velocity is equivalent to 2gh, g
being the acceleration due to gravity and h the height of collapse.
Following this scheme we used initial velocity of 120 m/s to simu-
late Plinian column-collapse and 50 m/s to simulate Vulcanian col-
umn-collapse. These values correspond to column-collapse heights
of 720 and 130 m, respectively. The values are supported, for
example, by reports of pyroclastic flow velocities during the Plinian
eruption of El Chichón Volcano in 1982 (Macías et al., 2008), or by
direct observations, during the Vulcanian column-collapse of Souf-
rière Hills Volcano between 1995 and 1999 (Druitt et al., 2002).
The initial velocity of pyroclastic flows related to dome destruction
can be set at 0 m/s if they are generated by the gravitational col-
lapse of the dome sensu stricto (that however, is not our case) or
higher if they are generated by sudden expansion of pressurized
gases (e.g. Fink and Kieffer, 1993).

Fig. 4. Shaded relief map showing the overlapped area and thicknesses resulting from eight combined TITAN2D simulations of pyroclastic flows formed by Vulcanian
column-collapse with a 50 m/s initial velocity and a volume of 0.1 km3. The simulations were performed through 360° with initial directions separated by 45°.
 H.F. Murcia et al. / Journal of South American Earth Sciences 29 (2010) 161–170 167

3.2. Results
3.2.1. Plinian column-collapse pyroclastic flows
In our simulations these pyroclastic flows were able to travel up
to 9 km from the vent, emplacing deposits thicker than 60 m in the
Toche River valley. Thick deposits also accumulated in San Juan,
Santa Marta and Azufral creeks (>45 m), and Tochecito, Bermellón
and Coello Rivers (>30 m). Some pyroclastic flows were able to
overtop the 200-m-high ridge, Cuchilla de San Lorenzo, located
west of the volcano. The 1-m deposit isopach did not affect the vil-
lage of Cajamarca, however thinner deposits and the associated di-
lute cloud would likely impact it. The villages of Toche and Tapias
were affected directly. Fig. 3 illustrates the areas inundated by 1,
15, 30, 45, 60 and >60 m thick pyroclastic material around the vol-
cano in case of a 720 m high column-collapse. The minimum area
directly impacted by this eruption was 56 km2.
3.2.2. Vulcanian column-collapse pyroclastic flows
These pyroclastic flows were able to travel up to 6 km from the
vent, emplacing deposits thicker than 45 m in the Toche River.
More than 30 m of material was also deposited within the valleys
of San Juan, Santa Marta and Azufral creeks. However, some valleys

Fig. 5. Shaded relief map showing pyroclastic flow hazard map, pyroclastic flow zone affected using FLOW3D and the distribution of the final deposits after a Plinian eruption
using TITAN2D in CMV.
168 H.F. Murcia et al. / Journal of South American Earth Sciences 29 (2010) 161–170
such as those of the Tochecito, Bermellón, and Coello Rivers were
not reached. In this case, the pyroclastic flows were blocked
by the 200-m-high Cuchilla de San Lorenzo ridge. Fig. 4 illustrates
the areas covered by 1, 15, 30, 45 and >45 m thick deposits around
the volcano for initial velocities of 50 m/s. A minimum area directly
devastated by this kind of eruption was 33 km2.
3.2.3. Comparable historical eruptions
Large historical column-collapse eruptions, similar to those re-
ported for CMV, have been documented, for example, at El Chichón
and Colima Volcanoes, México and Chaitén Volcano, Chile. Carey
and Sigurdsson (1986) reported that the 1982 eruption at El
Chichón Volcano completely flattened ca. 100 km2 of jungle associ-
ated with the emission of 1.1 km3 of magma. Similarly, Saucedo
(1997) reported a 0.45 km2 area affected by pyroclastic flows
(0.012 km3) in the 1913 eruption of Colima Volcano. Recently, Lara
(2009) reported ca. 4 km3 of material involved in the 2008 eruption
of Chaitén Volcano. Also, historical dome destruction eruptions
with relatively small or without column-collapses have been doc-
umented, for example, at Unzen, Soufrière Hills and Colima Volca-
noes. Nakada et al. (1999) reported <0.001 km3 of pyroclastic flow
deposits during the 1990–1995 eruption at Unzen Volcano. Druitt
et al. (2002) reported an average of 0.0019 km3 of pyroclastic flow
deposits during the 1995–1999 Vulcanian eruption of Soufrière
Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Saucedo et al. (2004, 2005) reported
<0.002 km3 pyroclastic flow deposits during the 1991–1999 erup-
tion at Colima Volcano, México. CMV eruptions seem to be more
similar to those occurred during the 1982 eruption of El Chichón
Volcano or during the 2008 eruption of Chaitén Volcano which in-
volved column-collapses.
4. Discussion: hazard maps
Volcanic hazard maps are an important tool to portray the dan-
ger posed by active volcanoes to the general public, and are very
useful for both local inhabitants at risk and local authorities for
planning purposes. As it was mentioned in the introduction of
the hazards map of El Chichón Volcano, México (Macías et al.,
2008), the first efforts to delimit volcanic zones began after the
1919 catastrophic eruption of Kelut Volcano, Indonesia (Neumann
Van Madang, 1960), although systematic assessment of hazard
mapping started only in the 1960s (Tilling, 1989). In Colombia, a
belated publication of the hazard map of Nevado del Ruiz Volcano
combined with difficulties in hazard communication during the
1985 volcanic crisis, prevented adequate dissemination of the vol-
cano hazards knowledge to the public and Civic Authorities, which
led to the loss of the lives of 23,000 people (Tilling, 1989). This
event still represents today the second largest volcanic catastrophe
of the 20th century. The important lesson learned by scientists was
that for any active volcano it is necessary to define its volcanic evo-
lution with the identification of past eruptions, their type and mag-
nitude, the distribution of the products and, if possible, to depict
scenarios of future eruptions with the aid of computer-assisted
programs to finally construct hazard maps, prior to volcanic unrest.
Hazard maps should be illustrative and easy to read. Fortu-
nately, INGEOMINAS has now published the hazard maps of Cerro
Bravo, Nevado del Ruiz, Nevado Santa Isabel, Nevado del Tolima,
Cerro Machín, Nevado del Huila, Puracé, Galeras, Cumbal, Chiles
and Cerro Negro volcanoes, while current maps are being prepared
for Azufral and Sotará volcanoes, and Doña Juana Volcanic Com-
plex. Among these maps, those of Galeras, Nevado del Huila, Puracé
and Cerro Machín volcanoes have used computer simulations as a
tool to aid in the delineation of hazard zones and to refine the con-
structed maps. The codes used for these simulations include TI-
TAN2D (Patra et al., 2005), FLOW3D (Kover, 1995; Sheridan and
Kover, 1996) and LAHARZ (Iverson et al., 1998; Schilling, 1998).
Both existing CMV maps include a hazard zone showing areas
that could be affected by pyroclastic flows (Méndez et al., 2002;
Obando and Ramos, 2003) (Fig. 5). The first map was published
by INGEOMINAS as the official hazard map of the volcano (v. INGE-
OMINAS, 2003), while the second one was created as a result of a
Bachelor thesis by using FLOW3D simulations. In this work, we
show the final distribution of simulated pyroclastic flows by using
the TITAN2D code, taking into account two different types of erup-
tions. We do not show a new hazard zone because that should in-
clude not only the final deposits, but also the areas covered by
moving of pyroclastic flows prior to the deposition. Besides it
should show thicknesses less than 1 m of pyroclastic flow deposits
and the ash cloud surge deposit associated. However, these zones
are in good agreement with the INGEOMINAS hazard map and
Obando and Ramos (2003) hazard zone, although the deposition
area presented in this work is somewhat smaller (Fig. 5).
As shown in Figs. 3 and 4, the two different eruption types (in
volume and magnitude) would likely accumulate thick deposits
in the surrounding valleys of CMV, threatening more than 20,000
inhabitants. The larger magnitude pyroclastic flows produced dur-
ing a Plinian eruption would likely affect the village of Cajamarca
and the hamlets of Tapias and Toche. Pyroclastic flows produced
during Vulcanian eruptions would likely affect the Toche Hamlet
only. In addition, the sudden deposition of large amounts of volca-
nic debris (P60 m in thickness) in the valleys of the Toche and Ber-
mellón Rivers, would block the drainage producing temporary
lakes that would eventually fail after few days or months produc-
ing destructive lahars, as was observed at El Chichón Volcano,
México, Pinatubo Volcano, Philippines, and Numazawako Volcano,
Japan (Macias et al., 2004; Arboleda and Martinez, 1996; Kataoka
et al., 2008). The lahars could reach the Magdalena River, as was re-
ported by Cortés (2001a,b) and Murcia et al. (2008a). Such scenar-
ios represent a hazard to more than 500,000 inhabitants that
include the towns of La Inspección de Policía de Coello, Carmen
de Bulira, Payandé, Gualanday, Chicoral, Coello, Espinal, Flandes
and Girardot. These potential scenarios are so far, the most hazard-
ous events associated with Machín Volcano for which future simu-
lations and hazard delineation are needed.
5. Conclusions
Recently, CMV has shown signs of volcanic unrest as increasing
seismicity, ground deformation, chemical variations of hot springs
and radon emissions (GVP, 2004; Londoño et al., 2007; Ordoñez,
2007, 2008). The geological record has shown that Machín has pro-
duced Plinian and Vulcanian-type eruptions during the past
5000 years (Méndez, 1999; Méndez et al., 2002, 2003; Rueda,
2005) with subsequent lahars that have traveled more than
100 km (Cortés, 2001a,b; Murcia et al., 2008a). TITAN2D simula-
tion results illustrated in this paper indicate that future eruptions
may threaten ca. 1 million people. The results also fit the hazard
zones published in the hazard map of the volcano and in earlier
simulations. Finally, we emphasize the need to maintain and im-
prove the monitoring network in the volcano, educating the public,
and developing a preliminary plan of evacuation.
Acknowledgments
This study was supported by NSF Grant 0711497 to Michael
Sheridan, CONACYT (Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología de
México) No. 47226 to José Luis Macías, and EHAZ program (Univer-
sity Exchange Program in Earth Hazards – A North American
Mobility Project – México – USA – Canada) through Hugo Delgado
 H.F. Murcia et al. / Journal of South American Earth Sciences 29 (2010) 161–170 169

(UNAM – México). We are especially grateful to Keith Dalbey, Brett GVP (Global Volcanism Program), 2004. Smithsonian Institution. <http://
www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1501-04=&volpage=weekly>.
Burkett and Dinesh Kumar (State University of New York at Buffalo,
Hall, M.L., Wood, C.A., 1985. Volcano–tectonic segmentation of the northern Andes.
USA) who provided technical assistance to run the necessary soft- Geology 13, 203–207.
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sey University – New Zealand) to first draft of this manuscript and Hidayat, D., Widiwijayanti, C., Voight, B., Patra, A., Pitman, B., 2008. TITAN2D Based
Modeling of Dome-collapse Pyroclastic Flows for Crisis Assessments on
with the thoughtful reviews of Roberto Sulpizio (Universita di Bari Montserrat. IAVCEI General Assembly, Reykjavik, Iceland.
– Italy), an anonymous reviewer and Eliza Calder (State University Hurtado, B.O., Murcia, H.F., 2003. Caracterización del depósito de flujo de escombros
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