Caloocan City Science High School

10th Avenue Corner P. Sevilla St. Grace Park, Caloocan City

Predicting the Probability of a Household Fire Occuring in a Given Month in Caloocan

ARENOS, Kurt Alleikhane C.

CARIAGA, Abigail P.
LAZO, Jhun Paul C.
SANTOS, Charles Angelo A.
11-Lepton

Mr. Guiller H, Suarez

Research Adviser

2018-2019
INTRODUCTION

Fires are one of the most dangerous calamities that can occur in our lives; it can start

suddenly and spread quickly in just a blink of an eye. It can cause your houses and your lives to

be in critical danger. (ROSPA, 2018). Household fires are one of the most common incidents that

can cause huge casualties (ICDO, 2013).

Caloocan city is one of the cities that bear a large population of informal settlers. Their

houses are built near each other, that is why when a fire occur, it can spread quickly. The number

of fire incidents went down by 51% in January to June of 2016, compared to the data gathered

from January to June 2017. The Bureau of Fire Protection recorded 26,969 incidents in the first

half of the year of 2016 and there were 13,215 incidents recorded in the first semester of 2017

(Rappler,2017). The number of fire incidents in the month of February 2018 went down by 50 %

compared to the data gathered last year in the same month (The Philippine Star,2018).

STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

The researchers aim to answer the following questions:

1. What is the likely number of fire accidents in any given month?

2. With the range centered around the mean, what is the range of the number of fire accidents

having a probability of more than 50% chance of occuring?

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

The researchers aim to help the Caloocan City Central Fire Station in preparing nearby

residents for future fire accidents by creating a probability distribution about the recent fire
accidents. In addition to that, the researchers would also like to know the expected number of fires

in a given month and the likely range of number of fire accidents with the probability of occuring

with more than 50% chance of occuring. Furthermore, the researchers also want the residents

living near the said fire station to be made aware of the mose likelihood number of fire accidents

of occuring near or on their houses.

METHODOLODY

To gather all the neccessary data the researcher presented a letter to the teacher in

charge and principal to be submitted to the Caloocan City Central Fire Station. After finalizing

the letter the researcher asked for the soft/hard copy of all the fire incident in the Caloocan near

the area.

The researcher then enumerate the number of fire incident in the Caloocan from July 2016 to

December 12, 2018 to compute for the average fire incidents in caloocan per month. After

gathering and collecting all the data evaluation was done. Through the computation of the

researcher, the desired information complying the statement of the problem was determined.

The researcher computed the average so that the Caloocan can improve the the awarenee and

preparedness of the citizens of Caloocan on fire incidents.