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Inductive reasoning starts with a specific scenario and makes conclusions about a general
population. For our lake example, if you found a trout fish in a lake, you would assume that it is not
the only fish in that lake. You may further conclude that all the fish in the lake are trout. You have
induced from specific scenario information about the general population of the lake.
An interesting point with induction is that it allows for the conclusion to be false. It is simply a process
of logical reasoning from a specific observation to a general theory of a population. The conclusion
that all the fish in the lake are trout is very likely to be wrong; however, the process of induction was
pure and logical. You could call it a valid guess.
Mathematics relies on both logic and creativity, and it is pursued both for a variety of
practical purposes and for its intrinsic interest. For some people, and not only
professional mathematicians, the essence of mathematics lies in its beauty and its
intellectual challenge. For others, including many scientists and engineers, the chief
value of mathematics is how it applies to their own work. Because mathematics plays
such a central role in modern culture, some basic understanding of the nature of
mathematics is requisite for scientific literacy. To achieve this, students need to
perceive mathematics as part of the scientific endeavor, comprehend the nature of
mathematical thinking, and become familiar with key mathematical ideas and skills.
Typographical conventions[edit]
Main article: Typographical conventions in mathematical formulae
As is the case for spoken mathematical language, in written or printed mathematical discourse,
mathematical expressions containing a symbolic verb, like , are generally treated as clauses
(dependent or independent) in sentences or as complete sentences and are punctuated as such by
mathematicians and theoretical physicists. In particular, this is true for both inline and displayed
expressions. In contrast, writers in other natural sciences disciplines may try to avoid using
equations within sentences and may treat displayed expressions in the same way as figures or
schemes.
As an example, a mathematician might write:
Mathematics is no exception.
DEFINITION expression
An expression is the mathematical analogue of an English noun; it is a correct
arrangement of mathematical symbols used to represent a mathematical object of
interest.
The most common expression types are numbers, sets, and functions.
all look different, but are all just different names for the same number.
This simple idea—that numbers have lots of different names—is extremely important
in mathematics!
DEFINITION sentence
A mathematical sentence is the analogue of an English sentence; it is a correct
arrangement of mathematical symbols that states a complete thought.
What is Mathematical Intuition? The question of what exactly intuition is, in general, is relevant to a
variety of domains, including philosophy, mathematics, psychology, and education (Westcott, 1968).
Philosophers, such as Bergson and Spinoza, have contrasted intuition with reason and logic, a view that
can be found in some modern conceptualizations of mathematical intuition to be discussed below.
Mathematicians have traditionally regarded intuition as a way of understanding proofs and
conceptualizing problems (Hadamard, 1954). Psychologists have examined the role of intuitive thinking
in a variety of domains including clinical diagnosis, creativity, decision making, reasoning, and problem
solving. A growing body of research in cognitive psychology has been devoted to studying the process of
insight, which is defined as a sudden understanding of something, an “Aha!” experience, after a period
of trying to solve a problem unsuccessfully (e.g., Mathematical Intuition 5 Davidson, 1995; Gick &
Lockhart, 1995; Seifert, Meyer, Davidson, Palatano, & Yaniv, 1995).
http://gseacademic.harvard.edu/~starjo/papers/intuition.pdf
CHAPTER 3;
The most commonly used measures of central tendency are the mean, median
and mode.
While the mean and median are used to find the approximate "center" of a set
of data,
the mode is used to find the most "popular" value in the data set.
Mode (most):
(least reliable indicator of central tendency)
• is the value in the data set that occurs most often. See how to use your TI-83+/TI-84+
When data is presented in a frequency table form, graphing calculator with mean, mode,
the mode is the value with the highest frequency.In median
a histogram, the highest bar is the mode. Click here.
If there is no repeated value in the set, there is no See how to use your TI-83+/TI-84+
mode. Note: If there is no mode, be sure to write graphing calculator with mean, mode,
"no mode" and do not write zero (0). median and grouped data (frequency
tables.)
Click here.
* is most typically used with categorical data.
Note: mode = most
Mean Use the mean to describe the most "typical" value of a set that does not have an outlier.
(An outlier is an extreme value that differs greatly from the other values in the set.).
"average"
Pros: Cons:
• most popular measure in business, • yields inflated or deflated result
engineering and computer science. when extreme values (outliers) or
• yields one distinct answer. skewed data are present. The mean
• useful for comparing sets of data. has a tendency to be pulled toward
extreme values.
Median Use the median to describe the most "typical" value of a set that does have an outlier.
(An outlier is an extreme value that differs greatly from the other values in the set.)
"middle" Pros: Cons:
• outliers (extreme values) or skewed data • not as popular (or used as often)
do not affect the median as strongly as they affect as the mean.
the mean.
• yields one distinct answer.
• useful for comparing sets of data.
Mode Use the mode to describe the most "popular" value of a set.
Pros: Cons:
"most"
• works with numeric and non- • may not be one distict answer - there may be more
numeric data. Most used with than one mode in a set (or no mode in a set).
non-numeric data. • since there is the possibility of more than one
• outliers (extreme values) do answer, how do you decide which one best describes
not affect the mode. the central tendency?
• if no values in the set repeat, the mode is useless
(as there is "no" mode).
• misleading as a central tendency if found far away
from the rest of the data.
• not as popular as the mean or median.
https://mathbitsnotebook.com/Algebra1/StatisticsData/STmmm.html
CHAPTER 4; Introduction
Nature of data
The data for regression and correlation consist of pairs in the form (x,y). The
independent variable (x) is determined by the experimenter. This means that the
experimenter has control over the variable during the experiment. In our experiment,
the temperature was controlled during the experiment. The dependent variable (y) is
the effect that is observed during the experiment. It is assumed that the values
obtained for the dependent variable result from the changes in the independent
variable. Regression and correlation analyses will determine the nature of this
relationship, if any, and the strength of the relationship. It can be a consideration that
all of the (x,y) pairs form a population. In some experiments, numerous observations
of y are taken at each value of x. In these cases, each set of values of y taken at a
particular value of x form a subpopulation of the data.
Graphical representation
Data are represented using a plot called a scatter plot or scatter diagram or x-y
plot. During analysis we try to find the equation of a line that fits the data. This is
called the regression line. From algebra, we recall that points which are (x,y) pairs
can be plotted on the Cartesian coordinate system. We also recall that a straight line
on the Cartesian coordinate system has the equation y = mx + b, where m is the slope
of the line, and b is the y-intercept of the line. The slope is always the coefficient of
the x term in the equation. Following this pattern, the slope of the regression line can
be given using various forms of equations, for example, y = ax + b, y = a + bx, etc. By
looking at the equation we can determine the slope and the y-intercept.
Scatter diagrams can show a direct relationship between x and y. Let us have
an equation, y = a + bx where b is the slope. The direct relationship exists when the
slope of the line (b) is positive. An inverse relationship exists when the slope of the
line is negative. When the slope
b=0, then there is no relationship. The nature of the relationship is discussed as part
of correlation.
https://www.kean.edu/~fosborne/bstat/09rc.html
CHAPTER 4;
Type I Error: is the type of error that involves the rejection of a null hypothesis
that is actually true (i.e. a false positive).
Type II Error: is the type of error that occurs when we do not reject a null
hypothesis that is false (i.e. a false negative).
These errors cannot be eliminated; they can be minimised, but minimising one type of
error will increase the probability of committing the other type.
The probability of making a Type I error depends on the criterion that is used to accept
or reject the null hypothesis: the p value or alpha level. The alpha is set by the
researcher, usually at .05, and is the chance the researcher is willing to take and still
claim the significance of the statistical test.). Choosing a smaller alpha level will
decrease the likelihood of committing Type I error.
For example, p<0.05 indicates that there are 5 chances in 100 that the difference
observed was really due to sampling error – that 5% of the time a Type I error will occur
or that there is a 5% chance that the opposite of the null hypothesis is actually true.
With a p<0.01, there will be 1 chance in 100 that the difference observed was really due
to sampling error – 1% of the time a Type I error will occur.
The p level is specified before analysing the data. If the data analysis results in a
probability value below the α (alpha) level, then the null hypothesis is rejected; if it is
not, then the null hypothesis is not rejected. https://latrobe.libguides.com/maths/hypothesis-
testing
CHAPTER 5;
The binary number system is an alternative to the decimal (10-base) number system that we use every day. Binary
numbers are important because using them instead of the decimal system simplifies the design of computers and
related technologies. The simplest definition of the binary number system is a system of numbering that uses only
two digits—0 and 1—to represent numbers, instead of using the digits 1 through 9 plus 0 to represent numbers.
To translate between decimal numbers and binary numbers, you can use a chart like the one to the left. Notice how 0
and 1 are the same in either system, but starting at 2, things change. For example, decimal 2 looks like 10 in the
binary system. The 0 equals zero as you would expect, but the 1 actually represents 2. Here’s how to translate
between binary and digital. In every binary number, the first digit starting from the right side can equal 0 or 1. But if
the second digit is 1, then it represents the number 2. If it is 0, then it is just 0. The third digit can equal 4 or 0. The
fourth digit can equal 8 or 0. And so on. If you write down the decimal values of each of the digits and then add
them up, you have the decimal value of the binary number. In the case of binary 11, there is a 1 in the first position,
which equals 1 and then another 1 in the second position, so that equals 2. Add 2 + 1 together and you get 3.
As numbers get larger, new digits are added to the left. To determine the value of a digit, count the number of digits
to the left of it, and multiply that number times 2. For example, for the digital number 100, to determine the value of
the 1, count the number of digits to the left of the 1 and multiply that number times 2. The number is 2 × 2, which
equals 4. The total value of binary 100 is 4, since the numbers to the left of the 1 are both 0s. Now you know how to
count digital numbers, but how do you add and subtract them? Binary math is similar to decimal math. Adding
binary numbers looks like that in the box to the right above.
To add these binary numbers, do this: Start from the right side, just as in ordinary math. In the column of numbers
on the far right side, add 0 + 1 as you would normally to get 1. Write a 1 down in the solution area. But in the
second column, 1 + 1 doesn’t equal 2, it equals binary 2, which is written 10. Any time you add 1 + 1 in binary
math, write down a 0 and carry the 1 to the next column. In the third column, you now have 0 + 1 plus the 1 you
carried over. According to our rule, that equals 0, so write 0 and carry the 1 to the next column. Now in the fourth
column you have 1 + 1, + the 1 you carried over. Any time you have a column that adds up to decimal 3, you write
down a 1 in the solution area and carry a 1. In the fifth column you have only the 1 that you carried over, so you
write down 1 in the fifth column of the solution. The same problem in decimal math is 10 + 15 = 25.
Computers rely on binary numbers and binary math because it greatly simplifies their tasks. Since there are only two
possibilities (0 and 1) for each digit rather than 10, it is easier to store or manipulate the numbers. A simple device
like a switch or a transistor that has two distinct states, like “on” and “off,” can become a number storage unit or part
of a calculator. Computers need a large number of transistors to accomplish all this, but it is still easier and less
expensive to do things with binary numbers rather than decimal numbers.
The original computers were used primarily as calculators, but later they were used to manipulate other forms of
information, such as words and pictures. In each case, engineers and programmers sat down and decided how they
were going to represent a new type of information in binary form. The chart shows the most popular way to translate
the alphabet into binary numbers (only the first six letters are shown). It is called the American Standard Code for
Information Interchange or ASCII.
Although it is pretty complicated to do so, sounds and pictures can also be converted into binary numbers, too. They
have to be divided up into small elements (“samples” in audio or “pixels” for pictures), and then every element has
to be assigned a number. The result is a huge array of binary numbers, and the volume of all this data is one reason
why image files on a computer are so large, and why it is relatively slow to view video or download audio over an
internet connection.
https://ethw.org/Binary_Numbers_and_Binary_Math
Integers
Introduction to Integers
Today we are going to introduce ourselves to a unique idea in maths. It
is called an ‘Integer’. What is an integer? Let’s suppose a farmer has 17
sheep and all but 9 of them die. So how many does he have left now?
Yes, 9! This is actually the idea that we shall discuss here. Let’s
understand what is an integer. Let us first understand the basics of
integer here.
Numbers used for counting in everyday life are called natural numbers
eg. 2 pens, 6 chocolates etc. The addition of 2 natural numbers is a
natural number, for example, 2 + 3 = 5. Also, the multiplication of 2
natural numbers is a natural number. For example, 2 × 3 = 6.
All natural numbers along with zero (0) are called whole numbers.
Therefore zero (0) is not a natural number as you cannot count zero. But
zero is a whole number. Thus every natural number is a whole number.
Zero is the only whole number that is not a natural number.
Negative numbers are a concept i.e. they do not exist in reality. But for
the purpose of calculation, we imagine a number system in which all
natural numbers are preceded by a negative sign, for example, -1, -2, -3,
-4….and so on. Their value is less than 0 and as the numbers increase
the value of the unit decreases, for example -1 > -2> -3> -4> -99 >-
20000 and so on.
The addition of 2 negative numbers is also a negative number, for
example (-2) +(-4) = (-6). Also the subtraction of a negative number
may or may not be a negative number, for example (-2) -(-4) =-2 +4 =
2.
What is an Integer?
An integer is any number which is included in a set of combination of
all the above numbers types. i.e. if we construct a set of all natural
numbers, whole numbers, and negative numbers then such a set is
called an Integer set, it can be represented as,
The set of integers does not include fractions i.e p/q form or numbers
which are in decimals eg: 2.4, 3.2 etc. The set of integers is an infinite
set which means it has no ending on either side. That is because for
every number on either the positive or negative side there is always one
another number at an increment or decrement of 1 respectively. Hence
the set of integers cannot be bound and is thus inexhaustible.
x + x + 1 = 129
so, 2x = 129 – 1
2x = 128
x = 64
if x = 64 then, x+1 = 65.
Hence, the numbers are 64 and 65.
https://www.toppr.com/guides/maths/integers/introduction-to-integers/
Example
2x+3y>12x+3y>1
2⋅1+3⋅2>?12⋅1+3⋅2>?1
2+5>?12+5>?1
7>17>1
The graph of an inequality in two variables is the set of points that represents all solutions to the inequality. A linear
inequality divides the coordinate plane into two halves by a boundary line where one half represents the solutions of
the inequality. The boundary line is dashed for > and < and solid for ≤ and ≥. The half-plane that is a solution to the
inequality is usually shaded.
Example
y≥−x+1y≥−x+1
https://www.mathplanet.com/education/algebra-1/linear-
inequalitites/linear-inequalities-in-two-variables
CHAPTER 7:
The Mathematics of Finance concentration studies the foundations of financial
theory, including asset pricing and financial institutions. Students learn how
financial markets work, how to price assets and measure risk, and how asymmetric
information between buyers and sellers impact markets. The relationship between
financial markets and the macroeconomy is also typically studied by most students.
A written thesis is strongly encouraged as part of the MA degree and is generally
conducted in conjunction with a professor’s research in a topic at the forefront of
modern finance.
The Mathematics of Finance concentration at the Master’s level is best suited for
someone who wants to pursue a career in financial markets, including investment
and wealth management as well risk measurement and management. The
concentration also provides a strong background for candidates who eventually
want to pursue a PhD in economics or finance. The concentration at the PhD level
is suitable for candidates who want to produce original research either as a
practitioner in industry or as an
academic. https://www.amcs.upenn.edu/academics/sample-programs-study/mathematics-
finance
SIMPLE INTEREST
I=Pt
- is the simple annual (or nominal) interest rate (usually expressed as a percentage)
S=P+I
S = P (1 + t)
- S is the future value (or maturity value). It is equal to the principal plus the
interest
earned.
COMPOUND INTEREST
FV = PV (1 + )
i=𝐣
PV = FV (1 + )
−n OR PV =
𝐅𝐕
(𝟏 + 𝐢)�
https://www.georgebrown.ca/uploadedFiles/TLC/_documents/Formula%20Sheet%20for%20Financial%
20Mathematics.pdf
CHAPTER 7:
Amortization is the process of incrementally charging the cost of an asset to expense over its
expected period of use, which shifts the asset from the balance sheet to the income statement. It
essentially reflects the consumption of an intangible asset over its useful life. Amortization is
most commonly used for the gradual write-down of the cost of those intangible assets that have
a specific useful life. Examples of intangible assets are patents, copyrights, taxi licenses, and
trademarks. The concept also applies to such items as the discount on notes receivable and
deferred charges.
The amortization concept is also used in lending, where an amortization schedule itemizes the
beginning balance of a loan, less the interest and principal due for payment in each period, and
the ending loan balance. The amortization schedule shows that a larger proportion of loan
payments go toward paying off interest early in the term of the loan, with this proportion
declining over time as more and more of the loan's principal balance is paid off. This schedule
is quite useful for properly recording the interest and principal components of a loan payment.
If an intangible asset has an unlimited life, then it is still subject to a periodic impairment test,
which may result in a reduction of its book value.
For example, ABC International has spent $100,000 to acquire a broadcast license that will
expire and be put up for auction in five years. This is an intangible asset, and should be
amortized over the five years prior to its expiration date. The entry in each year would be:
Debit Credit
The difference between depreciation and amortization is that amortization is associated with
charging intangible assets to expense over time, and depreciation is associated with charging
tangible assets to expense over time. Similarly, depletion is associated with charging the cost of
natural resources to expense over their usage period.
https://www.accountingtools.com/articles/what-is-amortization.html
CHAPTER 7:
CHAPTER 8:
Article I of the US Constitution states that "representatives and direct taxes shall be
apportioned among the several states . . . according to their respective numbers" but offers
no specific rule for achieving this goal. The Constitution also requires a census every ten
years to ensure that representation stays in line with changing populations. As expected,
the 2000 Census numbers show a dramatic shift in population from the urban Northeast to
the South and Southwest, and there will be a corresponding shift of twelve seats in the
House of Representatives. But what method is actually used to determine this result? The
answer forms a fascinating tale that spans two centuries and involves some of the country's
greatest statesmen and mathematicians - with the most telling mathematical insights
generally supplied by the former rather than the latter.1
Before launching into this story, however, the skeptical reader may be wondering what all
the fuss is about. Why not simply compute the exact share of seats for each state
(the quotas) and round them to the nearest integers? The difficulty is best illustrated by an
example. Consider a federation of three states with a "house" of 21 representatives (see
below).
Here ordinary rounding does not work because all three states get rounded down, and thus
only 20 seats are apportioned. The earliest proposed solution to this difficulty is due to
Alexander Hamilton (1792): round the quotas in the usual way, and if any seats are left
over, give them to the states with largest remainders. In the present example, state B, with
remainder .41, would get rounded up to 3 seats under Hamilton's method.
Jefferson prevailed over Hamilton in the 1790s debate - not because Congress recognized
its mathematical subtlety, but largely because it gave one more seat to Virginia, which at
that time was by far the most populous and most important state. Jefferson's method
continued in use through the 1830s, even as it came under increasingly bitter attack in
Congress because of its blatant favoritism toward large states. (If Jefferson's method were
in use today it would give California 55 seats, even though California's quota is only 52.45.)
The evident bias of Jefferson's method ultimately led to its abandonment in 1840, when it
was replaced by a method first proposed by the great orator Daniel Webster in 1832. Like
Jefferson, Webster began with a common divisor d, but instead of dropping the fractional
part of the quotients he argued that they should be rounded in the usual way: above one-
half up, below one-half down. As in the case of Jefferson's method there always exists a
range of divisors that apportions the required number of seats and does so in a unique way
(barring ties).
The methods of Webster and Hamilton were used off and on until 1900, when Webster's
approach definitively replaced Hamilton's. The reason was the bizarre behavior of
Hamilton's method when the house size changed. In the 1880s, for example, an increase in
the house size from 299 to 300 seats would have caused Alabama's allotment to decrease
from 8 seats to 7. This so-called "Alabama paradox" led Congress to abandon Hamilton's
method - thus showing that intuitive mathematical principles can, at least occasionally, play
a role in politics.
It could be objected that, in recent times, the house size has been fixed at 435, and thus the
Alabama paradox is no longer relevant. But Hamilton's method also displays unacceptable
behavior when the house size is fixed and the populations change. In particular, a state that
is gaining population can give up seats to a state that is losing population, a phenomenon
known as the "population paradox." For both of these reasons Hamilton's method is
unacceptable.
But are there any methods that do better? In fact, there is a large class of methods, of which
Jefferson's and Webster's are particular examples, that avoid both paradoxes. All of them
are based on the principle of the common divisor invented by Jefferson. To explain how
they work, consider a set of state populations p1, . . ., pn and a house size h. Choose
a common divisor d and let qi(d) = pi/d be the quotient of each state i. Next select a rounding
threshold r(a) between every pair of successive nonnegative integers a and a + 1. If i's
quotient falls in the interval a < qi(d) < a + 1 and it exceeds r(a) round it up, otherwise round
it down. Finally, adjust the value of d until the rounded numbers sum to h. Each choice of
rounding thresholds defines a divisor method.
These methods can be justified in two different ways. On the one hand they are the only
ones that avoid the Alabama and population paradoxes. On the other hand, each can be
shown to optimize an objective function subject to the constraint that the allocations add up
to h and are integer-valued. (In fact, d is the Lagrange multiplier associated with the adding-
up constraint.)2
Five divisor methods have played an important role in US apportionment debates: three
were proposed by famous statesmen (Jefferson, Webster, and John Quincy Adams) and
two by scientists (Joseph Hill, a statistician at the Census Bureau, and James Dean, a
professor at Dartmouth). The dates they were proposed, and the associated rounding
thresholds that define them, are shown below.
The methods are arranged from left to right so that the rounding thresholds are in
descending order: a + 1 > a + 1/2 > [squareroot]a( a + 1) > a(a + 1)/(a + 1/2) > a. Webster
rounds at the arithmetic mean, Hill at the geometric mean, and Dean at the harmonic mean.
(Jefferson always rounds down, Adams always rounds up.) This ordering has the following
implication: consider any two such methods, M and M', and suppose that M lies to the left of
M'. If M and M' yield different solutions, then necessarily M gives more seats to larger states
and fewer seats to smaller states as compared to M'.
History shows that in fact Jefferson's method strongly favors large states, while Adams's
method is biased toward small states. The crucial question is whether any method treats
small and large states even-handedly. To examine this question empirically, let us evaluate
solutions by each of the five methods in each of the twenty-two censuses from 1790-2000.
In each census year we first omit the very small states with quota less than one-half, since
these must get one seat in spite of their size. Then we divide the remaining states into three
categories: large, middle and small, with the middle category taking up the slack if the
number of states is not divisible by three. For each method and each census year, we
compute the per capita representation in the large states as a group and in the small states
as a group. The percentage difference between the two is the method's relative bias toward
small states in that year. Finally, to estimate their long-run behavior, we compute the
average bias of each method up to that point in time. The results are shown in the
accompanying graph.
Only Webster's is close to being unbiased; in particular the current method (Hill's)
systematically favors the small states by 3-4%. These results can be verified rigorously
under various assumptions about the probabilistic distribution of populations.
Given these findings, it is remarkable that the current method was adopted in part because
some of the country's leading mathematicians - including John von Neumann, Marston
Morse, and Luther Eisenhart - claimed that it was unbiased. Indeed in an NAS report to
Congress they claimed that Hill's method is to be preferred because it "stands in a middle
position as compared with the other methods." (It was fortunate for this reasoning that they
were considering an odd number of methods.) Theoretical calculations, buttressed by
empirical evidence (which was not considered by the mathematicians), show that on the
contrary Hill's method is biased and Webster's is not.
Of course, politics also played a role in the outcome, as it always has: the switch from
Webster's to Hill's method in 1941 gave one more seat to Arkansas and one less to
Michigan, which essentially guaranteed one more seat for the Democrats (the majority
party). It is also true, however, that the scientific arguments bolstered the Democrats' case.
Indeed, apportionment debates over the years exhibit an interplay between political and
mathematical logic. Jefferson's method was ultimately rejected because of large-state bias,
Hamilton's because of bizarre behavior when the house size grew. Changes in method had
to wait, however, for the underlying problem to be articulated and for the votes to be in
place.
This time around Hill's method happens to give the same solution as Webster's. It might be
a propitious moment to correct the situation: no state will be affected now, but the large
states can expect to gain in the future. Moreover, the large states have the votes, because
in matters pertaining to apportionment, the Senate generally defers to the House, where the
large states enjoy a comfortable majority.
Peyton Young is Scott and Barbara Black Professor of Economics at The Johns Hopkins
University and a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. He is the author, with M. L.
Balinski, of Fair Representation (the Brookings Institution, Washington, DC,
2001), http://www.brook.edu/es/dynamics.
References
For a detailed account of the history and mathematics of apportionment see M. L. Balinski
1
and H. P. Young, Fair Representation, 2nd edition, The Brookings Institution, Washington,
D.C., 2001.
2
H. P. Young, Equity In Theory and Practice, Princeton University Press, 1994, pp.188-9.
Cumulative Average Bias of Five Traditional Methods, 22 US Censuses
Note: On each curve the point at any census year is the average of the percentage biases
of the apportionments of the corresponding method up to and including that year. The
number of seats allocated is the actual number that was apportioned. Any state with quota
less than .5 is ignored. The remaining states are divided into thirds: large, middle, and
small, the "middle" third being slightly larger if the number is not divisible by three. The bias
percentage is the percentage by which the small states' representation per capita differs
from that of the large states.
https://www.aps.org/publications/apsnews/200104/backpage.cfm
CHAPTER 8:
The Mathematics of Voting
Published February 4, 2016 Irish Times Leave a Comment
Tags: Algorithms, Arithmetic, Social attitudes
Selection of leaders by voting has a history reaching back to the Athenian democracy. Elections
are essentially arithmetical exercises, but they involve more than simple counting, and
have some subtle mathematical aspects [TM085, or search for “thatsmaths” at irishtimes.com].
Rock-paper-scissors, a zero-sum game. There is a cyclic relationship: rock beats paper, paper beats scissors and scissors
beats rock [Image: Wikimedia Commons].
The scientific study of voting and elections, which began around the time of the French
Revolution, is called Psephology, from the Greek word psephos, a pebble: pebbles were used as
counting tallies in ancient times.
The Marquis de Condorcet, a French philosopher, mathematician and political scientist, was one
of the founders of the mathematical theory of voting. He had studied under the renowned
mathematician d’Alembert and he wrote several books on mathematics. He discovered a counter-
intuitive result now called Condorcet’s paradox.
Suppose we have three candidates, Alice, Bob and Chris (A, B and C). If a majority of voters
prefer A to B, and a majority prefer B to C, then it would appear obvious that there must be a
majority who prefer A to C. This combination of two results is known as transitivity. But
Condorcet showed that it may fail to hold. It is possible that more prefer C to A, resulting in a
cycle of preferences, A before B before C before A. This is reminiscent of the game Rock-Paper-
Scissors, where each choice wins over a second but loses to the third option. A concrete example
of Condorcet’s paradox is given below.
Marquis de Condorcet (1743-1794)
During the turbulent French Revolution, Condorcet fled Paris to avoid capture and possible
execution. Stopping at an inn, he betrayed his aristocratic status by ordering a twelve-egg
omelette. He was immediately arrested and imprisoned, and died soon afterwards in mysterious
circumstances.
Condorcet’s studies were considered to be a key contribution to the French Enlightenment. After
his death, his widow Sophie undertook to publish all his writings. This work was continued by
their daughter Eliza who had married Arthur O’Connor, a United Irishman.
In the 1950s, the mathematical theory of games, devised by John von Neumann, was used to
analyse voting systems. Later, Kenneth Arrow used mathematical arguments to show that certain
desirable properties of voting systems were mutually exclusive; thus, all systems are inherently
limited and compromises are unavoidable. Arrow’s impossibility theorem is the most frequently
quoted and applied result in voting theory.
In the single transferable vote system used in Ireland, voters rank the candidates in order of
preference. The idea of such a proportional representation (PR) system is that the number of
seats won by each party or group of candidates should be proportional to the number of votes
cast for them. PR systems tend to result in several political parties, whereas single vote or “first-
past-the-post” systems – as used in the UK and USA – usually result in dominance by just two
parties.
In the Irish system, the method of counting is set out in minute detail. The method is algorithmic
in nature; that is, it may be implemented as a series of clearly identifiable steps, under conditions
that are explicit and unequivocal. Although well defined, the process is complicated and gives
rise to endless debate and occasional disputes.
Nowadays, the benefits and weaknesses of a voting system are expected to be demonstrable in
mathematical terms. Modern research focusses on devising new criteria and new methods of
fulfilling them. With high-power computers, it is feasible to simulate elections and to study the
practical implications of modifications in voting and counting procedures. Large ensembles of
simulations yield statistically robust conclusions.
Condorcet’s Paradox: an Example
Suppose there are three candidates, A, B and C. Each voter chooses the candidates in order,
indicating a first, second and third preference on the ballot paper. We write (A > B > C) to
indicate that A is chosen first, B second and C third, and we write (A > B) to indicate that A is
preferred to B. Voters have six possible choices, shown in the following Table. Suppose there are
110 voters, who make the choices shown in the Table.
Each vote cast implies three preferences. For example, Option 1, (A > B > C ), implies A before
B, A before C and B before C, which we write ( A > B ), ( A > C ) and ( B > C ). Counting all six
pair-wise preferences, we have the numbers in the Table below. We see there are 60 choices for
A over B as against 50 for B over A, so A wins out over B. Similarly, B wins over C and C wins
over A. We have a cycle ( A > B > C > A ).
This is paradoxical: it
seems that majority wishes contradict each other. The expectation that preferences are transitive,
and that ( A > B ) and ( B > C ) imply ( A > C ), is not fulfilled. This is Condorcet’s paradox.
Applying Single Transferable Voting
The question remains: with the voter preferences indicated above, who wins? To determine this,
further “rules” must be agreed. We assume that only one candidate is to be elected; that is, we
consider a one-seat constituency. We tabulate the number of first, second and third preferences
here.
We see that A and B have the same number of first preferences while C has fewer. In
the STV system, candidate C is now eliminated, and 30 votes indicating C as first
preference are allocated to A or B depending upon the second preference of each.
These correspond to Option 3 and Option 6 above. Since Option 3 gives A as second
preference, 20 votes are transferred to A. Since Option 6 gives B as second preference,
10 votes are transferred to B.
After this ‘second count’, A has 60 votes while B has 50. Thus, A is elected.
It is paradoxical that, if B had been removed from the process at the outset, the expressed
preferences would indicate a preference for C over A, while the result using the STV system is a
win for A.
https://thatsmaths.com/2016/02/04/the-mathematics-of-voting/