Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Advanced
Packaging Trends
in this Era of
Digital New Age
Market Briefing
23-April-2019
Santosh KUMAR
Director & Principal Analyst | kumar@yole.fr
Favier SHOO
Technology & Market Analyst | shoo@yole.fr
© 2019
MARKET-APPLICATION ROADMAP DRIVEN BY MEGA TRENDS
≤ 2018 : Technology Benchmark 2019 - 2030 : MEGA TRENDS for Digital New Age
COMPUTING COMPUTING
IO Counts IO Counts
2x2 10x10 20x20 50x50 >>50x50 2x2 10x10 20x20 50x50 >>50x50
Package Size (mm) Package Size (mm)
Only major trends/markets are considered
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DIGITAL NEW AGE: NEW TRENDS
Disruptive Technology
Motion sensing
Olfactometry Driver-less
HD Voice
Augmented
Imaging Processing human
Audio
Hyper
Data Center Robot home
Next-gen
assistant
Holographic
Smartphone interaction
Virtual with AI
assistant
Smartphone Smartwatch
with AI
Mobile
Smelling
AI
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TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP: FROM NANO-SCALE TO MICRO-SCALE..
Die to Substrate
200 to 150 μm 150 to 80 μm 60 to 40 μm <40 μm
Advanced Packaging
RDL L/S (μm) 15/15 to 9/9 μm 10/10 to 8/8 μm 8/8 to 5/5 μm < 2/2 μm
Average trends of the various industry players 2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 4
PACKAGING MARKET GROWTH
2014 2023
Advanced Packaging
$84 B
Conventional Packaging
$53 B
Global Packaging
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CONSUMER MARKET OVERVIEW: TOTAL UNITS IN 2018
IoT
ENTERTAINMENT 3%
17%
530
90
COMPUTING
258 9%
105
MOBILE
68%
3 Billion Units
WEARABLES
3%
2066
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APPLICATION PROCESSOR ENGINE (APE) - TRENDS IN SMARTPHONES
Processor packaging thickness*
FCCSP FCCSP
MCeP FCCSP
600 FC CSP
500 MCeP
MCeP
?
400
Fan-Out Fan-Out? Fan-Out?
ePLP-PoP
300 inFO-PoP inFO-PoP inFO-PoP
200
2015 2016 2017 2018 ≥2019
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FAN-OUT APPLICATIONS
Orange: Devices that can be found in Green: Devices that could be found Grey: Devices that will likely remain on WLCSP or
FOWLP packages today in the future in FOWLP flip-chip package or move to 3DIC or Embedded
die
Apple iPhone 7 (2016)
A10 APE – InFO package (TSMC) Applications out of mobile market
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FAN-OUT PACKAGING EVOLUTION
A long and volatile journey yet history is still in the making…
Chip-First Early Fan-Out Activities Chip-First Chip-Last Recent Fan-Out Inflection Possible Scenario
Face-Down (long history, high volume) Face-Up Fan-Out Creation of many new technology and IP
Fan-Out Fan-Out
HD HD
FOWLP
FOPLP
FOWLP FOPLP
vs
Milestone
M-Series made
creation Achieved FOPLP
eWLB RCP possible
licensing licensing
RCP eWLB and first and first RDL-First InFO InFO first ePLP first 1 new player in HD FO
creation creation volume volume R&D creation volume volume Cost Pressure in Core FO
≤2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
HD FO
vs
Core FO
vs
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FAN-OUT MARKET: BUSINESS MODEL EVOLUTION
OSAT Foundry IDM
2015 2017 2019 2024
10%
19%
6% $3,864 M*
28% CAGR +19%
© 2019
CELLULAR TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
From 2G to 5G: Less than a 30 year journey
Other standards from IEEE family
including WiMAX and iBurst
TDD-
CDMA2000 EV-DO Rev LTE-
CDMA CDMA2000 1xRTT 1xEV-DO A/B/C TDD-LTE Advanced LTE-A
5G sub-6GHz 5G mmWave
TD-SCDMA TD-HSPA Pro
Cloud Computing
Autonomous Vehicle
Frequency(GHz)
Advanced AI assistant Medical Robot
5G use cases
extend far Wireless VR
Robotic Service
beyond the
mobile phone,
from IoT to
autonomous AR
Drone Delivery
vehicles, creating Real-time Translation
New Gaming Content
new challenges
for the network Smart City
in terms of data 360° Video Telepresence
Industrial Automation
rate and latency 4K video streaming
Smart Grid
agility. 2025
Connected 2024
Asset Tracking
Agriculture 2023
Wearable
2022
Port Management
Connected Home 2021
2020
2019
Remote Surveillance
2018
Shared Utilities
2017
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RF FRONT-END COMPONENTS
RFFE is a sophisticated set of technologies and components situated between the modem and the antenna, and is
responsible for physically transmitting and receiving information over the air.
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INSIDE RF SIP
PAs SKY78140
Skyworks RxDM
AFEM-8072 LNA
Avago MHB PAMiD
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RF CONTENT EVOLUTION IN MOBILE PHONE
Dual connectivity
4x4 MIMO
In every RF content – relative scale
cellular Carrier Aggregation
generation Ultra high band
evolution Wi-Fi 2x2 MIMO
leads to new Carrier Aggregation
High band
technology
and additional Diversity
RF content.
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MOBILE BROADBAND RF FRONT-END EVOLUTION
Disruption
mmWave module mmWave module
continuous support for HB module HB+MB module HB+MB module HB+MB module
More complexity
Same technology
carrier aggregation.
New Radio bands to be Densification More CA
integrated into ultra
high band module with Band refarming
dual connectivity. MB module
Finally, mmWave should
come on top of that
beyond 2020.
Antenna outside phone body Antenna “on phone case” Antenna on flex PCB Antenna in/on package
35
Discrete PA pkg. Single-side SiP Double-side SiP Enhanced double-side SiP
30
25
Level of integration
20
15
Frequency bands
10
Discrete pkg
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TECHNOLOGY TOOLBOX FOR RF SiP FOR 5G MOBILE
Double side
BGA assembly
Double side
High accuracy , mold
high speed pick
& place
Embedded
active &
passives
Packaging Compression
Molding
innovations
needed at
various levels
Conformal &
compartmental
Low loss shielding
materials
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ANTENNA IN PACKAGE (AIP) SOLUTIONS
Flip chip
Source: ASE
Various
solutions are
proposed for
integrating
antenna element
AiP Fan-out
with RF
components for
5G mobile Source: TSMC
communication
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ASSEMBLY / PACKAGING MARKET FOR RF SiP FOR MOBILE
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 21
TOTAL ASSEMBLY/PACKAGING MARKET FORECAST FOR RF SiP IN MOBILE
CAGR2017-2020 ~11%
WLP
8%
The share of
WLP for RF
components
2023
assembly prior ($5.3B)
to SiP assembly
will decrease
from 9% in
2017 to 8% in
2023
SiP
92%
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RF FEM MARKET FORECAST
By share of various RF FEMs SiP (in $M)
WiGig FEM
WiFi FEM WiGig FEM
WiFi FEM
PAMiD
PAMiD
mmW FEM
PAMiD market MMMB PA
Rx DM
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Automotive Packaging
Trend
HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY?
x2
$2.3T
Two industries,
both controlled
by giant $1.2T
companies with
~$250B in
revenue
Automotive electronics
$142B
$3.7B
Automotive packaging
≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ $250B
25
THE TWO CURRENT BIG TRENDS FOR VEHICLES
Automated vehicles sold
• ~1 - 2Mu in 2022
Automation
• ~5Mu in 2027 (Level
3*)
Thermal vehicles
Impact of Non-thermal vehicles sold
electrification
should be • ~14Mu in 2022
limited in the EV/HEV/hybrids Electrification**
next 5 years • ~25 - 30Mu in 2027
but, at long
term, the story
is different.
Automation 2017 A 3rd trend will appear 2027 * Level 3 = hands-off / ** Includes hybrids
guides
innovation. soon together with the
94Mu 105Mu
other two: More
vehicles vehicles
connectivity
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MORE AUTONOMY
Potential evolution of autonomous car sales by level of automation
Vehicle Level 0 Vehicle Level 1 Vehicle Level 2 Vehicle Level 3 Vehicle Level 4 Vehicle Level 5 Vehicle On Demand
3 4 5
Car sales (Munits)
2
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
By 2045, more than 70% of all vehicles sold will integrate autonomous capabilities!
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AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES - THE DISRUPTION CASE
Two distinctive paths for autonomous vehicle
Where?
Both strategies
end up at the
same place –
Autonomous
driving
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MAIN TREND 3: CONNECTIVITY
• Together with more autonomy and 5G future deployment, a 3rd main trend will appear: More connectivity in the car
• Connecting the car both internally and externally will become more and more important
• Numerous electronics-based applications will develop
Source: Bosch
Connecting Externally
• Connecting to other vehicles for safety and autonomous driving
• Connecting to external facilities
• Development aligned with 5G trend
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MICROELECTRONICS IN AUTOMOTIVE
Different electronics devices family MOSFET, IGBTs, DC-
DC convertor, GaN
HEMT etc.
Power
Screen,ToF conversion
sensor RADAR, LiDAR, CIS,
ADAS
Display sensors
Infrared Imager.
Magnetometer Ultrasonic
Processing
Lighting
& Storage
CPU/GPU, Memory, Front light, Rear light,
ECU, MCUs Interior lighting, etc
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GENERAL TRENDS IN AUTOMOTIVE PACKAGING
Reliability
Requirements
Power
Power density
Complexity of Integration
Data processing
Cost
Defects
Foot Print
Years
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ADAS COMPUTING HARDWARE TREND AP
ACC: Automatic Cruise Control ACC
Functionalities LKA: Lane Keeping Assist
AEB: Advanced Emergency Braking
CTA: Cross Traffic Alert
DM: Driver Monitoring
HP: Highway Pilot
Level 5
TJA: Traffic Jam Assist HP
AP: Auto Pilot ACC
PA: Park Assist LKA TJA PA
Ultrasonic
Fusion Fusion
Forward Camera
Surround Camera
LiDAR
Driver Camera
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TREND FOR HARDWARE FOR INFOTAINMENT
From MCU to fusion platform
• Instead of having multiple processing die for each infotainment application, the goal now is to merge all the
computing on a SoC. For upper ADAS level 3 to 5 infotainment system might take advantage of the GPU build in for
ADAS. Infotainment that require deep learning processing will come with this higher ADAS level cars. Two scenarios
could be possible:
Intelligence
VP – Intel Mobileye
FPGA – Xilinx ZYNQ
EyeQ5
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EXAMPLE OF SoC PLATFORMS FOR INFOTAINMENT USING AI
Company Product Computing Application
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CONCLUSION
• Advanced Packaging is viewed as the key solution to address the functional challenge and bridge the scale-gap
between die and to board.
• Currently, key players from different business models have Fan-Out packaging solutions with a strong emphasis
on cost and performance trade-off between Panel-level vs Wafer-level processing.
• The RF FEM SiP assembly market was $2.5B & $3.0B in 2017 & 2018 respectively and will have a CAGR of 11%
to reach $4.9B in 2023.
• 5G sub 6GHz require incremental innovation in packaging with small BOM increase while mmWave require
disruptive innovation. Antenna technology and placement is one of the most critical challenges for 5G
semiconductor systems.
• Automotive key trend: electrification, automation, infotainment. Hardware requirements for computing for
ADAS, infotainment will drive adoption of advanced packaging in automotive
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