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0.99=R10 0.99=R10
i.e. R=0.991/10 =.09989 i.e. R=0.991/10 =.09989
C- The system shown in Fig.Q12 is made up of ten . ﻣن ﻋﺷرة ﻣﻛوﻧﺎت12 ﯾﺗﻛون اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﻣوﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺷﻛل-ج
components. Components 3, 4 and 5 are not identical
ﻏﯾر ﻣﺗطﺎﺑﻘﺔ وﯾﺟب ﺗوﻓر ﻣﻛون واﺣد ﻋﻠﻰ5 و4 و3 اﻟﻣﻛوﻧﺎت
and at least one component of this group must be
available for system success. Components 8, 9 and 10 10 و9 و8 اﻟﻣﻛوﻧﺎت.اﻷﻗل ﻣن ھذه اﻟﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ﻟﻧﺟﺎح اﻟﻧظﺎم
are identical and for this particular group it is necessary ﻣن اﻟﺿروري أن ﯾﻌﻣل، وﺑﺎﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﮭذه اﻟﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ﺑﺎﻟذات، ﻣﺗطﺎﺑﻘﺔ
that two out of the three components functions .اﺛﻧﺎن ﻣن اﻟﻣﻛوﻧﺎت اﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺑﺷﻛل ﻣرض ﻟﻧﺟﺎح اﻟﻧظﺎم
satisfactorily for system success.
1-Write an expression for the system reliability in terms of . اﻟﻣﻌطﺎةR ﺗﻌﺑﯾرا ﻋن ﻣوﺛوﻗﯾﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم ﻣن ﺣﯾث ﻗﯾم
ً اﻛﺗب-1
the R values given. 0.8 = أﯾﺿﺎ ﻗﯾﯾم ﻣوﺛوﻗﯾﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم إذا ﻛﺎﻧت ﻣوﺛوﻗﯾﺔ ﻛل ﻣﻛون- 2
2- Also evaluate the system reliability if the reliability of
each component = 0.8. 98
1- Rs =12R5-17R6 + 13R8-9R9+2R10
2- Rs = 0.663538893
Question Two Question Two
A- Evaluate the reliability of the system shown in Fig.Q21 ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام اﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎل اﻟﺷرطﻲ وطرق21 ﺗﻘﯾﯾم ﻣوﺛوﻗﯾﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﻣوﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺷﻛل-أ
using conditional probability and cut set methods if each .0.99 ﺿﺑط اﻟﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ إذا ﻛﺎن ﻟﻛل ﻣﻛون ﻣوﺛوﻗﯾﺔ
component has a reliability of 0.99 111
fig.Q21 fig.Q21
(a) Conditional probability method أ( طرﯾﻘﺔ اﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎل اﻟﺷرطﻲ
It was previously noted that any component can be selected to ﯾﻣﻛن أن ﯾﻘﻠل.وﻗد ﻟوﺣظ ﺳﺎﺑﻘًﺎ أﻧﮫ ﯾﻣﻛن اﺧﺗﯾﺎر أي ﻣﻛون ﻟﺑدء اﻟﺗﺣﻠﯾل
initiate the analysis. Judicious selection can reduce the effort ﯾؤدي ﺗﺣدﯾد اﻟﻣﻛون.اﻻﺧﺗﯾﺎر اﻟﺣﻛﯾم ﻣن اﻟﺟﮭد اﻟﻣطﻠوب ﻟﻠﺣﺻول ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣل
required to obtain a solution. The selection of component F إﻟﻰ ﺗﻘﻠﯾل اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻷﺻﻠﻲ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻧظﺎﻣﯾن اﻟﻔرﻋﯾﯾن اﻟﻣوﺿﺣﯾن ﻓﻲ اﻟﺷﻛﻠﯾنF
reduces the original system to the two subsystems shown in
ج ﯾﺗﻛون اﻵن5.5 ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟرﻏم ﻣن أن اﻟﺷﻛلfig.Q21-1c. وQ21-1b
fig.Q21-1b and fig.Q21-1c. Although Figure 5.5c now consists of
series/parallel components, fig.Q21-1b does not, and this
وھذا، ﻻQ21-1b ﻓﺈن اﻟﺷﻛل، ﻣﺗوازﯾﺔ/ ﻣن ﻣﻛوﻧﺎت ﻣﺗﺳﻠﺳﻠﺔ
fig.Q21-1Sequential reduction using conditional probability اﻟﺣد اﻷدﻧﻰ ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام اﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎل اﻟﺷرطﻲfig.Q21-1
subsystem must be further decomposed. The selection of " ﯾﻧﺗﺞ ﻋن اﺧﺗﯾﺎر اﻟﻣﻛون "أ" "ﺟﯾد" و "ﺳﻲء.ﯾﺟب أن ﺗﺗﺣﻠل اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﻔرﻋﻲ
component A to be considered 'good' and 'bad' produces the two ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ.fig.Q21-1e وQ21-1d اﻟﻧظﺎﻣﺎن اﻟﻔرﻋﯾﺎن اﻟﻣوﺿﺣﺎن ﻓﻲ اﻟﺷﻛﻠﯾن
subsystems shown in fig.Q21-1d and fig.Q21-1e. In the case of
، " ﺟﯾدةA" ﻷﻧﮫ ﻋﻧدﻣﺎ ﺗﻛونBand 0 ﻻ ﺗظﮭر اﻟﻣﻛوﻧﺎت، Q21-1d اﻟﺷﻛل
fig.Q21-1d, components Band 0 do not appear because, when A
is 'good', the signal reaches E irrespective whether Band D are ﺟﯾدًا أو ﺳﯾﺋًﺎ وﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲD ﺑﻐض اﻟﻧظر ﻋﻣﺎ إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﻧطﺎقE ﺗﺻل اﻹﺷﺎرة إﻟﻰ
good or bad and therefore they become irrelevant. The reliability : ﯾﻣﻛن اﻵن اﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎج ﻣوﺛوﻗﯾﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻧﺣو اﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ.ﯾﺻﺑﺢ ﻏﯾر ذي ﺻﻠﺔ
of the system can now be deduced as follows:
Rs = Rs(if F is good) RF+ Rs(if F is bad) QF Rs = Rs(if F is good) RF+ Rs(if F is bad) QF
Rs(if F is bad) = 1-(1- RBRDRE)(1- RARC) Rs(if F is bad) = 1-(1- RBRDRE)(1- RARC)
Rs(if F is good) = Rs(if A is good) RA + Rs(if A is bad) QA Rs(if F is good) = Rs(if A is good) RA + Rs(if A is bad) QA
Rs(if A is good) = 1 - QCQE Rs(if A is good) = 1 - QCQE
Rs(if A is bad) = RBRDRE Rs(if A is bad) = RBRDRE
substituting gives اﻻﺳﺗﺑدل ﯾﻌطﻲ
Rs = [(1- QCQE)RA+ RBRDREQA]RF Rs = [(1- QCQE)RA+ RBRDREQA]RF
+ [1- (1- RBRDRE)(1- RARC]QF + [1- (1- RBRDRE)(1- RARC]QF
(b) Cut set method Using visual inspection or one of the two )ب( طرﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ اﻟﻣﻘطوﻋﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام اﻟﻔﺣص اﻟﺑﺻري أو أﺣد اﻟطرﯾﻘﺗﯾن
methods described in Section 5.3.4, the minimal cut sets of the ﻓﺈن ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺎت اﻟﻘطﻊ اﻟدﻧﯾﺎ ﻟﻠﺷﺑﻛﺔ اﻟﻣوﺿﺣﺔ ﻓﻲ، 5.3.4 اﻟﻣوﺿﺣﺗﯾن ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺳم
network shown in Figure 5.4 are (AB), (AD), (AE), (CE), (BCF)
ﺗﻘﯾﯾم اﻟﻘﯾﻣﺔ.(CDF) (( وBCF ،(CE) ،(AE) ،(AD) ،AB) ) ھﻲ5.4 اﻟﺷﻛل
and (CDF). Evaluation of the precise value of system reliability
using the rigorous techniques described in Section 5.3.2becomes ، 5.3.2 اﻟدﻗﯾﻘﺔ ﻟﻣوﺛوﻗﯾﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام اﻟﺗﻘﻧﯾﺎت اﻟﺻﺎرﻣﺔ اﻟﻣوﺿﺣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺳم
very tedious using hand calculations since in the case of this 6 وھﻲ ﻣﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻐﺎﯾﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام اﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﺎت اﻟﯾدوﯾﺔ ﻷﻧﮫ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ھذا اﻟﻧظﺎم ﻣﻊ
system with 6 cuts; the number of terms in the exact equation is ﯾﻌد ﺗﻣرﯾﻧًﺎ، وﻣﻊ ذﻟك.63 ﺗﺧﻔﯾﺿﺎت ؛ ﻋدد اﻟﻣﺻطﻠﺣﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻟدﻗﯾﻘﺔ ھو
63. However, it is a useful and logical exercise to deduce all 63
واﻟﺗﺄﻛﯾد ﻋﻠﻰ أن اﻟﻧﺗﯾﺟﺔ ﻣﻣﺎﺛﻠﺔ63 ﻣﻔﯾدًا وﻣﻧطﻘﯾًﺎ ﻻﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎج ﻛل اﻟﻣﺻطﻠﺣﺎت اﻟـ
terms and confirm that the result is identical to that obtained
using the conditional probability approach. The results obtained اﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗم.ﻟﺗﻠك اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗم اﻟﺣﺻول ﻋﻠﯾﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام ﻧﮭﺞ اﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎل اﻟﺷرطﻲ
using the suggested approximations are as follows: Consider ً ﺧذ ﺑﻌﯾن اﻻﻋﺗﺑﺎر أوﻻ:اﻟﺣﺻول ﻋﻠﯾﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧدام اﻟﺗﻘدﯾرات اﻟﻣﻘﺗرﺣﺔ ھﻲ ﻛﻣﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ
first the result that will be obtained if only second order events اﻟﻧﺗﯾﺟﺔ اﻟﺗﻲ ﺳﯾﺗم اﻟﺣﺻول ﻋﻠﯾﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﺳﺗﺧدام أﺣداث اﻟﺗرﺗﯾب اﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﻓﻘط
are used and the evaluation is reduced to one of summating the : ﻓﻲ ھذه اﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ.وﺗﻘﻠﯾل اﻟﺗﻘﯾﯾم إﻟﻰ ﻧﺗﯾﺟﺔ ﻟﺗﻠﺧﯾص اﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻت اﻟﻣﻘطوﻋﺔ
cut probabilities. In this case:
Qs = QAQB+ QAQD+ QAQE+ QCQE Qs = QAQB+ QAQD+ QAQE+ QCQE
=0.000400 =0.000400
Rs = 0.999600 Rs = 0.999600
i.e., an imprecision of +0.5% is introduced in the value of ٪0.0002- ﺑﻘﯾﻣﺔ ﻋدم اﻟﻣوﺛوﻗﯾﺔ وﯾﺗم ﺗﻘدﯾم٪0.5 + ﻣﻌﻧﻰ أﻧﮫ ﯾﺗم ﺗﻘدﯾم دﻗﺔ
unreliability and -0.0002% is introduced in the value of ﻓﻛر اﻵن ﻓﻲ اﻟﻧﺗﯾﺟﺔ اﻟﺗﻲ ﺳﯾﺗم اﻟﺣﺻول ﻋﻠﯾﮭﺎ إذا ﺗم.ﻓﻲ ﻗﯾﻣﺔ اﻟﻣوﺛوﻗﯾﺔ
reliability. Consider now the result that will be obtained if all of ﻣﻘﺻورا ﻣرة أﺧرى ﻋﻠﻰ واﺣد ﻣن اﺳﺗﺧدام ﺟﻣﯾﻊ اﻟﺗﺧﻔﯾﺿﺎت وﻛﺎن اﻟﺗﻘﯾﯾم
ً
the cuts are used and the evaluation is again limited to one of
ﻓﻲ ھذه اﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ.ﺗﻠﺧﯾص اﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻت اﻟﺧﻔض
summating the cut probabilities. In this case
Qs = QAQB+ QAQD+ QAQE+ QCQE+ QBQCQp+ QCQDQp Qs = QAQB+ QAQD+ QAQE+ QCQE+ QB QC Qp + QC QD Qp
= 0.000402 (upper bound to system unreliability) = 0.000402 ()اﻟﻌﻠوي ﻣﻠزﻣﺔ ﻟﻌدم ﻣوﺛوﻗﯾﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم
Rs = 0.999598 Rs = 0.999598
i.e., the imprecisions are +1.0% and -0.0004% in the values of ﻓﻲ ﻗﯾم ﻋدم اﻟﻣوﺛوﻗﯾﺔ٪0.0004- و٪1.0 + ﺑﻣﻌﻧﻰ أن ﻗﯾم ﻋدم اﻟدﻗﺔ ھﻲ
unreliability and reliability respectively. If the three sets of
ﻓﺈن، إذا ﺗﻣت ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺎت اﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ.واﻟﻣوﺛوﻗﯾﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺗواﻟﻲ
results are compared, the minimal cut set method, even with the
approximations, gives results that are sufficiently precise for ﺗﻌطﻲ ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ دﻗﯾﻘﺔ ﺑﻣﺎ ﻓﯾﮫ، ﺣﺗﻰ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺗﻘرﯾب، طرﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺣد اﻷدﻧﻰ ﻟﻠﺿﺑط
most applications. The magnitude of the imprecision decreases ﯾﺗﻧﺎﻗص ﺣﺟم ﻋدم اﻟدﻗﺔ ﺑﺷﻛل ﻣﻠﺣوظ ﻣﻊ زﯾﺎدة.اﻟﻛﻔﺎﯾﺔ ﻟﻣﻌظم اﻟﺗطﺑﯾﻘﺎت
significantly as the component reliabilities increase and can be إﻟﻰ ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺿﺋﯾﻠﺔ إذا، ﺣﺗﻰ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻣﺛﺎل اﻟﺣﺎﻟﻲ، ﻣوﺛوﻗﯾﺔ اﻟﻣﻛون وﯾﻣﻛن ﺗﻘﻠﯾﻠﮫ
decreased, even in the present example, to a negligible value if
the probabilities of two cuts occurring simultaneously, P(C1
P (C1 ، ﺗم ﺗﺿﻣﯾن اﺣﺗﻣﺎﻟﯾﺔ ﺣدوث ﻋﻣﻠﯾﺗﯾن ﻟﻠﺗﺧﻔﯾﺿﺎت ﻓﻲ وﻗت واﺣد
∩C2) etc., are included. In the present example this would ﻣﺻطﻠ ًﺣﺎ15 ﻗد ﯾؤدي ھذا إﻟﻰ إدﺧﺎل، ﻓﻲ ھذا اﻟﻣﺛﺎل.∩وﻣﺎ إﻟﻰ ذﻟكC2)
introduce 15 further terms in the equation of system unreliability إﺿﺎﻓﯾًﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻋدم ﻣوﺛوﻗﯾﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم وﺗﻘﻠﯾل ﻗﯾم ﻋدم اﻟﻣوﺛوﻗﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﺗﻘرﯾرﯾن
and reduce the values of unreliability for the two approximations
)اﻟﺣد اﻷدﻧﻰ ﻟﻌدم ﻣوﺛوﻗﯾﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم( و0.000396 اﻟﻠذﯾن ﺗم إﺟراؤھﻣﺎ ﻟـ
made to 0.000396 (lower bound to system unreliability) and
0.000398, respectively ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺗواﻟﻲ، 0.000398
B- Consider the cooling system of the continuous process اﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﺘ ﺪ ﻟﻤﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻤﺮة اﻟﻤﻮﺿﺤﺔ ﺸ ﻞ ﺗﺨﻄ-ب
plant shown schematically in Fig.Q22 and the وﺗﺴﻠﺴﻞ اﻷﺣﺪاث اﻟ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ اﻧﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎ اﻷﻧﺒﻮب اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻋﺎدة22 اﻟﺸ ﻞ
sequence of events that may follow a break in the pipe
normally used to supply the cooling water (initiating ﻳﺆدي ﻓﻘﺪ ﺎﺷﻒ اﻟﺘﺪﻓﻖ، ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺤﺪث ﻫﺬا.(ﻟ و ﺪ ﻣ ﺎە اﻟﺘ ﺪ )ﺣﺪث اﻟ ﺪء
event). When this happens a loss of flow detector D ﺿﻊ اﻋﺘ ﺎرك أن ﻠﺘﺎ.P2 وP1 إ ﺸﻐ ﻞ اﻟﻤﻀﺨﺎت اﻟ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﺎﻟ ﻬ ﺎءD
causes both electrically driven pumps P1 and P2 to
operate. Consider that both pumps are required for وﻣﻀﺨﺔ واﺣﺪة ﻟﻨﺠﺎح اﻟﻨﻈﺎم، ٪100 اﻟﻤﻀﺨﺘ ﻣﻄﻠ ﺘﺎن ﻟﻨﺠﺎح اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﻨﺴ ﺔ
100% system success, 1 pump for 50% system success اﺳﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺷﺠﺮة. و ﺤﺪث ﻫﺬا اﻟﻔﺸﻞ إذا ﻓﺸﻠﺖ اﻟﻤﻀﺨﺎت اﻟﻌﻤﻞ، ٪50 ﺑﻨﺴ ﺔ
and that failure occurs if both pumps fail to operate.
Deduce the event tree of the system, the probability of أﺣﺪاث اﻟﻨﻈﺎم واﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻞ ﻧ ﺠﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم إذا ﺎﻧﺖ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ اﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎت واﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ
each system outcome if all components and subsystems وﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﺪﻧ ﺎ اﻟ ﺗﺆدي إ0.99 اﻟﻔﺮﻋ ﺔ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﺎ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻧﺠﺎح ﻗﺪرە
have a success probability of 0.99 and the minimal cut
sets leading to partial and complete system failure. 127 .ﻓﺸﻞ ﺟﺰ و ﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم
Fig.Q22
Fig.Q22
Fig. Q22-1 Complete event tree ﺷﺠﺮة اﻟﺤﺪث اﻟ ﺎﻣﻠﺔQ22-1 ﺻﻮرة
e =∑ e =∑
0.5 0.5
Rw(t) = = 0.961723 Rw(t) = = 0.961723
0.5199 0.5199
R (0 + t ) R (0 + t )
R(t) = e R(t) = e
R (0) R (0)
R(t) = e Rw (t) R(t) = e Rw (t)
R(t) = Rc (t). Rw (t) R(t) = Rc (t). Rw (t)
= 0.990050 x 0.961723 = 0.990050 x 0.961723
= 0.952154 = 0.952154
(b) Using the same technique as in (a) above, we can ﯾﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ أن ﻧﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ، ( أﻋﻼهA) (ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻧﻔﺲ اﻷﺳﻠﻮب ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲb)
deduce
Rc(t) = 0.990050 (unchanged) Rc(t) = 0.990050 (unchanged)
. .
Rw(t) = = 0.945159 Rw(t) = = 0.945159
. .
and R(t) = 0.990050 x 0.945159 = 0.935755 and R(t) = 0.990050 x 0.945159 = 0.935755
B- A control system consists of three main components: a ﻣﺣول طﺎﻗﺔ: ﯾﺗﻛون ﻧظﺎم اﻟﺗﺣﻛم ﻣن ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﻛوﻧﺎت رﺋﯾﺳﯾﺔ-B
transducer, an amplifier and an actuator, having failure و0.05 و0.35 وﻣﻛﺑر ﺻوت وﻣﺷﻐل ﻟﮫ ﻣﻌدﻻت ﻓﺷل ﺗﺑﻠﻎ
rates of 0.35, 0.05 and 0.02 f/yr, respectively. All
components operate in their useful life period. ﺟﻣﯾﻊ اﻟﻣﻛوﻧﺎت ﺗﻌﻣل ﻓﻲ ﻓﺗرة. ﺳﻧﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺗواﻟﻲ/ f 0.02
i. Evaluate the probability of this system .ﺣﯾﺎﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﻣﻔﯾدة
surviving for 1 year without failure and its ﻗم ﺑﺗﻘﯾﯾم اﺣﺗﻣﺎل ﺑﻘﺎء ھذا اﻟﻧظﺎم ﻟﻣدة ﻋﺎم واﺣد دون.I
MTTF.
. اﻟﺧﺎص ﺑﮫMTTF ﻓﺷل و
ii. What is the minimum number of
transducers that must be connected in ﻣﺎ ھو اﻟﺣد اﻷدﻧﻰ ﻟﻌدد ﻣﺣوﻻت اﻟطﺎﻗﺔ اﻟﺗﻲ ﯾﺟب.II
parallel redundancy to increase the ﻣواز ﻟزﯾﺎدة اﺣﺗﻣﺎل ﺑﻘﺎء
ٍ أن ﺗﻛون ﻣﺗﺻﻼً ﺑﺗﻛرار
probability of the system surviving for 1 ؟0.9 اﻟﻧظﺎم ﻟﻣدة ﻋﺎم واﺣد دون إﺧﻔﺎق أﻛﺑر ﻣن
year without failure to greater than 0.9?
iii. Evaluate the new probability of surviving ﻗم ﺑﺗﻘﯾﯾم اﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎل اﻟﺟدﯾد ﻟﻠﺑﻘﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﯾد اﻟﺣﯾﺎة ﻟﻣدة .III
for 1 year and the MTTF after the ﺑﻌد اﻟﺗﺣﺳن ﻓﻲ )ب( ﺗم اﻟﻘﯾﺎمMTTF ﻋﺎم واﺣد و
improvement in (b) has been done.259 ﺑﮫ
Answers:
i. 0.657047
ii. 2.38 hr
iii. 3
iv. 0.908381
v. 4.14 hr
Question Five Question Five
A- The state space diagram and transition rate in f/hr of a ﻟﻌﻣﻠﯾﺔ ﻣﺎرﻛوفf / hr ﻣﺧطط ﻣﺳﺎﺣﺔ اﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ وﻣﻌدل اﻻﻧﺗﻘﺎل ﻓﻲFig.Q51ﯾوﺿﺢ اﻟﺷﻛل
continuous Markov process is shown in Fig.Q51. : اﺣﺳب.اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻣرة
Calculate:
.)أ( اﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻت اﻟﻣﻘﯾدة ﻟﻛل وﻻﯾﺔ
(a) The limiting probabilities of each state. .)ب( ﺗواﻓر اﻟﻧظﺎم
(b) The availability of the system. ﻟظروف ﺗﺷﻐﯾل اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﺗﺎﻟﯾﺔ ؛MITF ()ج
(c) The MITF for the following system operating
ھﻲ3 ھﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻻﺳﺗﻌداد واﻟدوﻟﺔ2 واﻟدوﻟﺔ، ھﻲ اﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﯾﺔ1 ( اﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ1)
conditions;
(1) state 1 is the normally up state, state 2 is a ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻔﺷل ؛ و
standby state and state 3 is the failure state; and . ﺣﺎﻻت ﻓﺷل3 و2 ھﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﺗﺷﻐﯾل واﻟﺣﺎﻻت1 ( اﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ2)
(2) State 1 is the operating state and states 2 and 3
are failure states. 306
Fig.Q51
Fig.Q51
Answers:-
0.9615, 0.0189 , 0.0196;0.9804,0.9615;100 hr, 50 hr
B- Use the frequency balance approach to evaluate the اﺳﺗﺧدم ﻧﮭﺞ ﺗوازن اﻟﺗردد ﻟﺗﻘﯾﯾم ﺗواﺗر اﻟﻣواﺟﮭﺔ وﻣدة-B
frequency of encountering and duration of residing in Q52 اﻹﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻛل ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣن اﻟﺣﺎﻻت اﻟﻣوﺿﺣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺷﻛل
each of the states shown in Fig Q52 where rates are . ﺳﻧﺔ/ ﺣﯾث ﯾﺗم اﻟﺗﻌﺑﯾر ﻋن اﻟﻣﻌدﻻت ﻓﻲ ﺣوادث
expressed in occurrences/yr. 337
Fig. 52
Fig. 52
Answers
0.9591, 0.0204, 0.0195, 0.001; 2.97 x 10-2 , 1.06 X 10-2 , 1.97 X 10-
2,
1.51 X 10-3 oce/yr, 32.3, 1.92, 0.99, 0.66 yr
B- What are the conditions for the function shown in ﻟﺗﻛون داﻟﺔ ﻛﺛﺎﻓﺔ6 ﻣﺎ ھﻲ ﺷروط اﻟوظﯾﻔﺔ اﻟﻣوﺿﺣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺷﻛل-ب
Fig.Q6 to be a probability density function? Under :اﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎل؟ ﻓﻲ ظل ھذه اﻟظروف ﺗﻘﯾﯾم
these conditions evaluate: .)أ( ﺗوزﯾﻊ اﻟﻔﺷل اﻟﺗراﻛﻣﻲ
(a) The cumulative failure distribution.
.)ب( وظﯾﻔﺔ اﻟﻧﺎﺟﻲ
(b) Survivor function.
(c) Hazard rate. .)ج( ﻣﻌدل اﻟﺧطر
(d) Expected value. .)د( اﻟﻘﯾﻣﺔ اﻟﻣﺗوﻗﻌﺔ
(e) Standard deviation. .)ھـ( اﻻﻧﺣراف اﻟﻣﻌﯾﺎري
219
Fig.Q6
Answers
a, b/V6, 0.75
Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) is a very basic measure ( ھو ﻣﻘﯾﺎس أﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺎﯾﺔ ﻣن اﻟﻣوﺛوﻗﯾﺔ اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧدﻣﺔMTTF) ﻣﺗوﺳط وﻗت اﻟﻔﺷل
of reliability used for non-repairable systems. It represents the
length of time that an item is expected to last in operation until it
ﯾﻣﺛل طول اﻟﻔﺗرة اﻟزﻣﻧﯾﺔ اﻟﺗﻲ ﯾُﺗوﻗﻊ أن ﯾﺳﺗﻣر ﻓﯾﮭﺎ.ﻟﻸﻧظﻣﺔ ﻏﯾر اﻟﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻺﺻﻼح
fails ﻋﻧﺻر ﻣﺎ ﺣﺗﻰ ﯾﻔﺷل