Assignment 3

Submitted by: Ananth Ramesh (worked with Vinay Sagar Mudlapur)

USC ID: 9441892027
Email: ananthra@usc.edu
Date: 09/10/18
Due on 09/10/18 11:59 P.M.

1. Imagine that you are the manager of an engineering department that

processes requests for quotations for new designs. Your past experience
indicates that you receive 7 requests per month. What is the probability
that you will receive more than 4 requests next month? The average time
it takes one of your engineers to process such a request is 30 hours, with
a range of 20 to 60. How many engineers should you have to be able to
complete at least 90% of the work each month (everyone works 160
hours per month)? (0.15 points) (Some of this needs to be simulated)

I am stuck at this point and cannot solve the second part of the question.
2. Who were Poisson and Dirichlet? (0.1 points)

Simeon Denis Poisson was a French Mathematician, Engineer and

Physicist whose most notable works include the generalization of
Laplace’s second order partial differential equation for potential
(known as Poisson’s equation or the potential theory equation), his
memoirs on definite integrals and discussions of Fourier Series.
The Poisson distribution in probability theory is named after him.

[Source: Wikipedia.org]
Johann Peter Gustav Lejeune Dirichlet was a German
mathematician who made deep contributions to number theory
(including creating the field of analytic number theory), and to
the theory of Fourier series and other topics in mathematical
analysis; he is credited with being one of the first
mathematicians to give the modern formal definition of a
function. He was in close contact with Poisson (who was his
academic advisor during his time in Paris).
3.     You have three suppliers (A,B,C) for a specific part
and you purchase equal numbers from all three in
random order. The parts are not marked for origin.
Their defective rates 0.3, 0.2 and 0. 1% respectively.
You are looking at a defective part. What is the
probability that the part came from A? (0.1 points)

Since there are 3 suppliers A,B and C, the share of parts

supplied by each supplier is 33% or 0.33 (and the parts
are not marked with which supplier they are procured
from).

Defective rates are 0.3, 0.2 and 0.1% for A,B and C
respectively, and let “d” be the defective part.

Probability of getting a defective part is given by,

P(total defective parts from supplier A,B,C) = P(Aᴒd) +

P(Bᴒd) + P(Cᴒd) = P(d)
= 0.33*(0.3/100) + 0.33*(0.2/100) + 0.33*(0.1/100) =
0.00198 = 0.198%

Probability of defective part from supplier A is given by,

P(A|d) = [P(Aᴒd)] / P(d)] = (0.00099) / 0.00198 = 0.5 =

50%
4.     Consider a communication source that transmits packets
containing digitized speech. After each transmission, the receiver
sends a message indicating whether the transmission was
successful or unsuccessful. If a transmission is unsuccessful, the
packet is resent. Suppose a voice packet can be transmitted a
maximum of 8 times. Assuming that the results of successive
transmissions are independent of one another and that the
probability of any particular transmission being successful is p,
determine the probability mass function of the number of times a
packet is transmitted. Then obtain an expression for the expected
number of times a packet is transmitted. (0.2 points)

Let a successful transmission be denoted by ‘S’ and failure to transmit

be ‘F’.
Let X denote number of trials (discrete random variable) to test if
transmission is successful or not.
For X=1, p(1) = {S} = p, where ‘p(X=x)’ defines the probability mass
function of the discrete random variable X.
Similarly, for X=2, p(2) = {FS} = (1-p)p, where (1-p) denotes the
probability of failure occurring before success ‘p’.
It can be extended to ‘x’ values, for X=x, p(x) = (1-p)x-1 *p
Therefore, the probability mass function for x=8 is given by,
p(8) = (1-p)7*p
The pmf is given by,
p(x) = { [(1-p)x-1*p, for x=1,2…..8] or [0, otherwise] }
The expected number can be calculated by,
Sum from x=1 to 8 of the pmf [(1-p)^(x-1)*p]
5
(0.1 points)
a) To find number of different crews possible, we can choose
any 3 out of 20 (order is not important). Therefore, there are
20C3 ways = 20! / (3!) * (20-3)! = 1140 ways
b) By excluding the best machinist, we can choose 3 out of the
remaining 19 machinists, which is done by,
19C3 ways = 19! / (3!) * (19-3)! = 969 ways

c) We can solve this by first finding out the crews which don’t
have any of the top ten machinists and then subtracting it from
the total number of crews possible. Choosing the crew from
the bottom 10 machinists can be done by,

10C3 ways = 10! / 3! * (10-3)! = 120 ways

d) Since there are a total of 1140 possible crews (from (a))

and 969 crews do not have the best machinist in them (from
(b)), the probability that the best machinist will not work that
night is given by,
P(best machinist not working that night) = no. of crews
without best machinist / total number of crews = 969 /
1140 = 0.85 = 85%
6. Ten people are playing Black Jack (2 cards down for each). The dealer is using
two decks. You will be the first to receive the first face up card. Your two down
cards are a 2 and a 7. What is the probability that your face up card will be a face
card (Jack, Queen, or King)? Suppose it is not one of these, what is the
probability that the next person’s face up card will be a face card? (0.2 points)

Since there are 2 decks there are total 104 cards, of which 20 cards are already dealt
to the 10 people.

There are 12 face cards in each deck so the total face cards in both the decks are
12*2 = 24 face cards.

I have a 2 and a 7 face down and I will receive the first face up card.

Probability of me getting a face card as the first face up card,

P(face card as face up card) = 24 face cards / 102 cards = 24/102 = 0.235 =
23.53%
(Since I already have 2 and 7)

The probability of the next person getting a face card as their face up card if I don’t get
it in the first attempt is a dependent probability (it depends on whether I get the first
face card or not).

Now the deck is reduced by 1 card since I didn’t get a face card.

P(face card as the second face up card) = 24 face cards / 101 cards = 24/101 =
0.2376 = 23.76%
7. There are 1000 different components in the system that your department has just
designed. The objective is that for each of the systems that you deliver to a customer,
it should have a probability of 0.999 of functioning properly. Your system is such that
at most 8 components can be bad for it to still function. What must be the maximum
probability for each of your components to fail for you to achieve your objective?
Assume that all the probabilities are independent and equal to each other. (0.25 points)

Probability of proper functioning system = 0.999

Probability of a non-functioning system = 0.001
Number of components which can be bad for system to still function normally = 8
Pmf for system to not function is given by,
0.001 = (p^8)*(1-p)^992*(1000C8)
[Selecting 8 random components from 1000 components]
I am stuck at this point and cannot solve further.
Trend of H1B Petitions Filed FY 2007 Through 2017: Beneficiary Country of Birth (Top Twenty)
Country
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
India 166,575 157,608 122,475 135,931 155,791 197,940 201,114 227,172 269,677
China, Peo 26,370 24,434 22,411 21,119 23,227 22,528 23,924 27,733 32,485
Canada 12,230 10,713 10,407 8,887 9,098 9,400 7,399 6,772 4,147
Philippine 10,730 10,277 10,704 8,721 7,480 7,204 5,576 4,897 4,298
South Kor 8,562 7,111 7,871 7,342 6,761 6,688 5,478 5,267 5,050
United Ki 5,394 4,088 4,308 4,325 4,511 4,172 3,520 3,267 2,555
Mexico 4,259 3,680 3,599 3,260 3,439 3,602 2,985 2,769 2,462
Taiwan 5,105 4,241 4,270 3,651 3,241 3,130 2,330 1,988 1,697
Japan 4,259 3,803 3,683 3,012 3,033 2,765 2,381 2,497 2,512
Pakistan 4,112 3,687 3,035 2,660 2,531 2,292 2,192 2,024 2,048
France 3,056 2,498 2,495 2,595 2,644 2,557 2,346 2,353 2,111
Turkey 2,775 2,538 2,724 2,467 2,169 2,066 1,788 1,598 1,512
Germany 2,913 2,374 2,253 2,225 2,172 2,030 1,755 1,664 1,553
Brazil 2,415 2,028 2,041 2,023 2,020 1,966 1,658 1,665 1,711
Colombia 3,168 2,482 2,182 1,875 1,737 1,650 1,319 1,256 1,164
Venezuela 2,531 1,930 1,952 1,897 1,755 1,676 1,362 1,331 1,230
Nepal 1,353 1,533 1,437 1,361 1,613 1,922 1,722 1,865 1,894
Russia 2,446 1,760 1,544 1,434 1,570 1,499 1,318 1,323 1,275
Italy 1,262 1,159 1,302 1,299 1,398 1,540 1,370 1,339 1,247
Spain 1,079 974 933 1,018 1,233 1,140 1,230 1,201 1,110
of Birth (Top Twenty)

2016 2017 Total Average Mean of Average = 14,230

300,902 302,293 2,237,478 203,407 Std Deviation = 44901.07
35,720 41,475 301,426 27,402 Minimun = 1,091
3,704 4,010 86,767 7,888 Maximum = 203,407 Alpha 2
4,269 3,777 77,933 7,085 Beta 6
4,547 4,328 69,005 6,273
2,287 2,077 40,504 3,682 Beta Distribution Values
2,315 2,581 34,951 3,177 1,091
1,528 2,517 33,698 3,063 Cumulative Pdf
2,401 1,301 31,647 2,877 14578.65 0.074559087 9.80192E-06
1,998 1,791 28,370 2,579 28066.4 0.237244998 1.35337E-05
1,992 1,733 26,380 2,398 41554.15 0.4232832 0.000013605
1,504 1,442 22,583 2,053 55041.89 0.595627229 1.17407E-05
1,481 1,333 21,753 1,978 68529.64 0.736625514 9.11258E-06
1,709 1,710 20,946 1,904 82017.38 0.8413696 6.45706E-06
1,006 1,018 18,857 1,714 95505.13 0.912546748 4.18041E-06
1,152 1,026 17,842 1,622 108992.9 0.956619957 2.45048E-06
1,639 1,479 17,818 1,620 122480.6 0.9811584 1.27547E-06
1,154 1,103 16,426 1,493 135968.4 0.993141289 5.69536E-07
1,208 1,086 14,210 1,292 149456.1 0.998058193 2.05288E-07
1,094 988 12,000 1,091 162943.9 0.9996288 5.31445E-08
176431.6 0.999965164 7.58166E-09
189919.3 0.999999421 2.55152E-10
203407.1 1 0
1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000
 Time (in hours)
Activities Best Most Likely Worst Mean Std Dev
A 5 11 17 11 2
B 2 9 21 9.833333 3.166667
C 4 10 19 10.5 2.5
D 7 16 29 16.66667 3.666667
E 8 18 28 18 3.333333

66 6.69577

0.5

Average Time to finish the task = 66.225 hours

#NAME?
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82.70257
66.71862
68.21306
86.3768
73.67102
61.47926
82.94904
54.08242
73.16465
76.48902 Histogram
70.3845
70.33789 14
70.87679 12
70.37174
69.95412 10
71.52321 8 Bin Frequency
70.33634 51.78005 1
81.83391 6 57.54618 3
Frequency

83.1691 4 63.3123 2 Frequency

68.23462 69.07843 10
81.84245 2 74.84455 12
51.78005 0 80.61068 3
68.49624 More 6 e
2 83 3 69 0 97 5 04 91
1
31
8
or
67.6499 1 8 6 8 0 3 M
54 17 02 26 51 75
64.79683
8 00 5 46 1 23 7 84 4 45 1 06
.7 . .3 .0 .8 .6
68.48407
51 57 63 69 74 80
68.16966
61.57485 Bin
56.27555
72.13678
80.14581
56.52497
69.20178
63.77279
68.99916
69.88171
75.26907
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Frequency

e
or
M
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#NAME?
 Time (in hours)
Activities Best Most Likel Worst Mean Std Dev
A 5 11 17 11 2 9.49616 7.951466
B 2 9 21 9.8333333333 3.166667 7.967423 10.64873
C 4 10 19 10.5 2.5 10.09239 8.980238
D 7 16 29 16.666666667 3.666667 13.32645 14.57798
E 8 18 28 18 3.333333 18.1429 14.68136

66 6.69577 59.02532 56.83979

60.64477 60.66965

alpha 12 min 59.12091

beta 18 max 67.88205
59.12091
1 59.70499 1.363616E-07 2.543171E-06
2 60.28906 0.0001787699 0.0014776304 Chart Title
3 60.87314 0.0069402928 0.0327803718
1.2
4 61.45721 0.0611456982 0.1768212443
5 62.04129 0.232085792 0.4072573564
6 62.62537 0.509959409 0.5046442217 1
7 63.20944 0.7745692044 0.3713702493
8 63.79352 0.9300905654 0.1666692294 0.8
9 64.37759 0.9865230989 0.0443034708
10 64.96167 0.9985745839 0.0063633962 0.6
11 65.54574 0.9999333708 0.0004088258
12 66.12982 0.9999990924 0.000008003 0.4
13 66.7139 0.9999999986 1.959231E-08
14 67.29797 1 3.377593E-13 0.2
15 67.88205 1 3.6511E-236
0
59 60 61 62 63 64 65
 8.675303 9.266286 11.08946 10.74886 10.15773 9.863863 9.05271 10.09644 9.893035 9.211795
8.747627 10.78204 11.12691 12.60794 7.335626 14.09598 10.66365 8.896224 12.95995 8.646926
9.731316 8.439159 9.81078 10.48747 9.536098 12.91198 9.119164 11.02834 12.35718 8.249827
12.41685 14.42498 15.6802 17.81742 18.40378 14.72471 14.09657 17.38536 16.86028 15.24496
15.52887 15.49514 14.94921 16.17193 15.06983 17.63852 15.68414 14.30941 14.99101 13.98811

55.09997 58.4076 62.65656 67.83362 60.50307 69.23505 58.61623 61.71578 67.06146 55.34162
59.96744 64.92429 67.0303 59.12091 65.46527 67.88205 62.70021 64.66702 63.69386 59.44637

Chart Title

62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69
8.501833 9.40981 11.07367 10.15494 8.392287 9.550863 9.395643
7.852626 10.23935 8.020971 11.88871 7.228983 7.642927 9.693779
8.894418 10.29414 8.976166 11.00016 10.88905 12.18951 10.38011
14.99408 16.65611 19.33441 19.17131 19.35098 15.59337 15.88312
15.6422 13.02767 15.67018 12.62991 17.35085 16.94723 15.21924

55.88516 59.62709 63.0754 64.84504 63.21215 61.9239 60.57189

61.88817 61.70688 60.53404 65.746 66.79067 63.84967 63.64042