LOUISIANA STATEWIDE SURVEY MEMORANDUM

DATE​: Tuesday, November 12, 2019

TO​: Interested Parties
FROM​: Christopher Kratzer – VP, Research & Analysis
RE​: Survey of Likely 2019 General Election Voters

The information below was gathered by ​Cygnal​ through an advanced multi-mode ( Live Calls + SMS +
Email + IVR) survey of likely 2019 general election voters in Louisiana, conducted November 7, 2019 –
November 9, 2019. This survey has a sample size of n800 and a MoE of ±3.46% at a 95% confidence
interval.

TL;DR
Just days away from the election, the Governor’s race is tightening up and getting too close to call.
Rispone is gaining on Edwards, and while voters are split over his image, Rispone’s strong favorability
among conservative voters and his ability to coalesce other primary candidate’s voters has pulled him
within 2-points of the incumbent.

A slight majority of respondents feel like Louisiana is headed in the right direction.
53% of voters believe that Louisiana is headed in the right direction. While the overwhelming majority of
Democrats are pleased with the direction of the state (RD: 76%), Republicans are not (RD: 28% / WT:
69%). Independent voters responded similarly to the topline numbers (RD: 53% / WT: 38%).

Overall, the generic Republican holds a 6-point lead over the generic Democrat.
51% of respondents plan to vote for a Republican candidate on Saturday (Dem: 45%). Independent
voters slightly lean left, with 51% planning to cast a Democratic vote. The generic Republican is most
popular among voters over age 50 (55%), but under-performs by double-digits with voters under age 50
(R candidates: 38% / D candidates: 58%). Men in Louisiana showed solid support for the generic
Republican (57%), but females are split over the decision (R candidates: 46% / D candidates 50%).

Respondents are even over their opinion of Rispone, but his popularity with conservatives is
tightening the race.
Trump’s image in Louisiana is divisive but comes out positive overall, with a slight majority (51%)
indicating that they have a favorable opinion of the president. Edwards’ image is stronger, with a net fav
of +12; alternatively, Rispone’s image is more divisive (fav: 48% / unfav: 45%). Edwards is most
favorable with voters under 50 (64%), and self-identified moderate (81%) and liberal (87%) voters.
Voters over 50 (52%), along with self-identified conservative voters (77%), also have a favorable
opinion of Edwards overall. Rispone is popular with conservative voters, with 83% of those who are
“very conservative” and 67% of those who are “somewhat conservative” indicating that they have a
favorable opinion of Rispone. Jeff Landry (+27 net fav) and Bill Cassidy (+14 net fav) both have strong
images statewide with the 2019 electorate.

Just days away from the election, Rispone has closed the gap significantly.
Edwards holds a slim 2-point lead over Rispone. Only 2.5% of respondents are still undecided in this
race. The majority of Independent voters are breaking for Edwards (Edwards: 56% / Rispone: 41%), as
well as the vast majority of self-identified moderate voters (Edwards: 77% / Rispone: 21%)...but we
repeat ourselves. 51% of voters over 50 plan to cast their vote for Rispone (Edwards: 46%), while
voters under 50 have placed themselves firmly behind Edwards (62%). Females are giving more of
their support to Edwards (54%), but a majority of males plan to cast their vote for Rispone (53%).

Louisiana’s stance on impeachment is definitive: Keep the Trump Train rolling.

56% of constituents responded that Trump should not be impeached and removed from office (40% yes
impeach). Males in Louisiana overwhelmingly support Trump staying in office (64%), and a slight
majority of females feel the same way (50%).

METHODOLOGY
This probabilistic survey was conducted November 7 – 9, 2019, with 800 likely 2019 general election
voters. It has a margin of error of ±3.46%. Known registered voters were interviewed via live phones,
SMS, interactive voice response, and email invitation. This survey was weighted to likely 2019 general
election voter universe.

ABOUT THE FIRM

Cygnal​ is a national public opinion and market research firm that specializes in data-driven approaches
to decision making. Cygnal was recently named the #1 private pollster in the nation and the #2 pollster
overall by Nate Silver’s ​538​, as well as the #1 most accurate polling and research firm in the country for
2018 by ​The New York Times​. Its team members have worked on more than 1,000 corporate, public
affairs, and political campaigns and worked in nearly every state.