4839 E Hwy 32

Salem, Missouri 65560

Special Investigations

January 24, 2020

Larry Goldberg
Goldberg Group Architects
805 N. 36th Street, Suite B
St. Joseph, Missouri 64506

Re: Woodbury County Housing Needs

Mr. Goldberg,
Pursuant to your request, I have reviewed the housing history for the above referenced
jurisdiction and arrived at a preliminary estimate for housing needs projected over 20
years. By applying the growth history of the most current 20 years I have concluded that
the jurisdiction’s need for space could reach as much as 590 beds by the year 2039. This
figure is based on actual custody history of growth percentage in the same historical
order as previous experience. A peaking factor has been applied using the customary
85% rule to accommodate classification issues that require separation. Such issues will
reduce the availability of beds due to the need for separation among classes.
I have attached the chart showing a 33 year history and one representing the projected
growth to include provision for the peaking factor.

Thanks,

Joseph M. Weber

Joseph M. Weber Phone: 573-729-4429

Senior Investigator Cell : 573-368-9880
Email: joeweber@fidmail.com
This chart represents a *33 year history of average daily population.
 Data provided by jurisdiction

Year   Max. # Beds   ADP   % of Growth 

1987  108  75.9 
1988  108  80.1  5.53% 
1989  108  104.5  30.46% 
1990  108  130.9  25.26% 
1991  158  137.5  5.04% 
1992  158  134.8  ‐1.96% 
1993  158  129.5  ‐3.93% 
1994  158  134.2  3.63% 
1995  158  163.8  22.06% 
1996  158  178.1  8.73% 
1997  158  196.2  10.16% 
1998  158  194.2  ‐1.02% 
1999  198  191  ‐1.65% 
2000  238  193.3  1.20% 
2001  238  200.4  3.67% 
2002  238  218.9  9.23% 
2003  238  227.5  3.93% 
2004  238  230.9  1.49% 
2005  238  247.1  7.02% 
2006  238  237.3  ‐3.97% 
2007  274  231.3  ‐2.53% 
2008  274  207.1  ‐10.46% 
2009  274  212.2  2.46% 
2010  274  202  ‐4.81% 
2011  274  218.8  8.32% 
2012  274  226.1  ‐2.08% 
2013  274  248.5  0.57% 
2014  274  256.3  8.01% 
2015  274  263.2  13.79% 
2016  274  272.5  31.58% 
2017  234  211.4  ‐0.38% 
2018  234  219.8  8.81% 
2019  234  235.8  7.77% 

Joseph M. Weber Phone: 573-729-4429

Senior Investigator Cell : 573-368-9880
Email: joeweber@fidmail.com
The following chart represents an estimated average daily population projected over the
next 20 years based on the last 20 years of growth history. A peaking factor using the
85% rule has been applied to accommodate for classification issues due to a need for
separation between classes.

ADP Growth Projection 
#  Year  Projected ADP  Growth History  Peaking Factor 
1  2020  238.6  1.20%  280.8 
2  2021  247.4  3.67%  291.1 
3  2022  270.2  9.23%  317.9 
4  2023  280.9  3.93%  330.4 
5  2024  285.1  1.49%  335.4 
6  2025  305.1  7.02%  358.9 
7  2026  293.0  ‐3.97%  344.7 
8  2027  285.6  ‐2.53%  335.9 
9  2028  255.7  ‐10.46%  300.8 
10  2029  262.0  2.46%  308.2 
11  2030  249.4  ‐4.81%  293.4 
12  2031  270.1  8.32%  317.8 
13  2032  264.5  ‐2.08%  311.2 
14  2033  266.0  0.57%  312.9 
15  2034  287.3  8.01%  338.0 
16  2035  326.9  13.79%  384.6 
17  2036  430.2  31.58%  506.1 
18  2037  428.5  ‐0.38%  504.2 
19  2038  466.3  8.81%  548.6 
20  2039  502.5  7.77%  591.2 
 

Joseph M. Weber Phone: 573-729-4429

Senior Investigator Cell : 573-368-9880
Email: joeweber@fidmail.com