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Income Statement
($millions) Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected
For the year ended December 31 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Revenue $ 2,300.0 $ 2,350.0 $ 2,410.0 $ 2,475.0 $ 2,550.0 $ 2,613.8 $ 2,679.1 $ 2,746.1 $ 2,814.7 $ 2,885.1
Growth rate n/a 2.2% 2.6% 2.7% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Cost of goods sold 1,775.0 1,805.0 1,845.0 1,890.0 1,945.0 1,999.5 2,049.5 2,100.7 2,153.3 2,207.1
Gross profit 525.0 545.0 565.0 585.0 605.0 614.2 629.6 645.3 661.5 678.0
Distribution expenses 75.0 80.0 80.0 85.0 88.0 91.5 93.8 96.1 98.5 101.0
SG&A expenses 165.0 170.0 180.0 185.0 187.0 190.8 195.6 200.5 205.5 210.6
EBITDA 285.0 295.0 305.0 315.0 330.0 331.9 340.2 348.8 357.5 366.4
Depreciation/Amortization 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 109.8 112.5 115.3 118.2 121.2
EBIT 195.0 200.0 205.0 210.0 220.0 222.2 227.7 233.4 239.3 245.2
Interest Expense 14.0 14.0 13.0 13.0 12.0 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6
EBT 181.0 186.0 192.0 197.0 208.0 209.6 215.1 220.8 226.7 232.6
Taxes 45.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 51.0 52.4 53.8 55.2 56.7 58.2
Net Income $ 136.0 $ 139.0 $ 144.0 $ 148.0 $ 157.0 $ 157.2 $ 161.3 $ 165.6 $ 170.0 $ 174.5
Common Size
Revenue 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Revenue Growth Rate n/a 2.2% 2.6% 2.7% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Cost of goods sold % of Revenue 77.2% 76.8% 76.6% 76.4% 76.3% 76.5% 76.5% 76.5% 76.5% 76.5%
Gross profit % of Revenue 22.8% 23.2% 23.4% 23.6% 23.7% 23.5% 23.5% 23.5% 23.5% 23.5%
Distribution expense 3.3% 3.4% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
SG&A expense % of Revenue 7.2% 7.2% 7.5% 7.5% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3%
Depreciation expense % Revenue 3.9% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%
EBITDA MARGIN 12.4% 12.6% 12.7% 12.7% 12.9% 12.7% 12.7% 12.7% 12.7% 12.7%
EBIT MARGIN 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.6% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%
Income Tax Rate 24.9% 25.3% 25.0% 24.9% 24.5% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Net Income Margin 5.9% 5.9% 6.0% 6.0% 6.2% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Dividend Payout % 55.1% 56.1% 55.6% 56.1% 54.1% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0%
Dividends $ 75.0 $ 78.0 $ 80.0 $ 83.0 $ 85.0 $ 86.4 $ 88.7 $ 91.1 $ 93.5 $ 96.0
Cash $ 25.0 $ 39.0 $ 47.0 $ 70.0 $ 102.0 $ 146.9 $ 190.0 $ 234.3 $ 279.8 $ 326.6
Accounts receivable 225.0 240.0 255.0 260.0 275.0 286.4 293.6 300.9 308.5 316.2
Inventory 425.0 435.0 465.0 490.0 505.0 499.9 512.4 525.2 538.3 551.8
Prepaid expenses 55.0 57.0 58.0 60.0 65.0 65.3 67.0 68.7 70.4 72.1
Total Current Assets 730.0 771.0 825.0 880.0 947.0 998.6 1,063.0 1,129.1 1,197.0 1,266.7
Fixed Assets - net 600.0 615.0 630.0 645.0 660.0 676.5 693.3 710.6 728.4 746.6
Total Assets 1,330.0 1,386.0 1,455.0 1,525.0 1,607.0 1,675.0 1,756.3 1,839.7 1,925.4 2,013.2
Revolver borrowings - - - - - - - - - -
Accounts payable 150.0 155.0 160.0 165.0 170.0 164.3 168.5 172.7 177.0 181.4
Accrued expenses 165.0 160.0 165.0 170.0 180.0 183.0 187.5 192.2 197.0 202.0
Total Current Liabilities 315.0 315.0 325.0 335.0 350.0 347.3 356.0 364.9 374.0 383.4
Debt Outstanding 200.0 195.0 190.0 185.0 180.0 180.0 180.0 180.0 180.0 180.0
Total Liabilities 515.0 510.0 515.0 520.0 530.0 527.3 536.0 544.9 554.0 563.4
Common Stock 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 $ 125.0 $ 125.0 $ 125.0 $ 125.0 $ 125.0
Retained Earnings 690.0 751.0 815.0 880.0 952.0 1,022.7 1,095.3 1,169.9 1,246.4 1,324.9
Total Liabilities and Equity $ 1,330.0 $ 1,386.0 $ 1,455.0 $ 1,525.0 $ 1,607.0 $ 1,675.0 $ 1,756.3 $ 1,839.7 $ 1,925.4 $ 2,013.2
In balance - - - - - - - - - -
Assumptions (BLUE)
Revenue $ 2,300.0 $ 2,350.0 $ 2,410.0 $ 2,475.0 $ 2,550.0 $ 2,613.8 $ 2,679.1 $ 2,746.1 $ 2,814.7 $ 2,885.1
Cost of goods sold 1,775.0 1,805.0 1,845.0 1,890.0 1,945.0 1,999.5 2,049.5 2,100.7 2,153.3 2,207.1
Minimum required cash level n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a $ 20.0 $ 20.0 $ 20.0 $ 20.0 $ 20.0
Accounts receivable DSO 36 37 39 38 39 40 40 40 40 40
Inventory turnover (Cogs) 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Prepaid Expenses as a % of Revenue 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Accounts Payable Days of COGS 31 31 32 32 32 30 30 30 30 30
Accrued Expenses % of Revenue 7.2% 6.8% 6.8% 6.9% 7.1% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
Operating activity
Net Income $ 139.0 $ 144.0 $ 148.0 $ 157.0 $ 157.2 $ 161.3 $ 165.6 $ 170.0 $ 174.5
Plus/(Less):
Depreciation/amortization 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 109.8 112.5 115.3 118.2 121.2
Change in accounts receivable (15.0) (15.0) (5.0) (15.0) (11.4) (7.2) (7.3) (7.5) (7.7)
Change in inventory (10.0) (30.0) (25.0) (15.0) 5.1 (12.5) (12.8) (13.1) (13.5)
Change in prepaids (2.0) (1.0) (2.0) (5.0) (0.3) (1.6) (1.7) (1.7) (1.8)
Change in accounts payable 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 (5.7) 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4
Change in accrued expenses (5.0) 5.0 5.0 10.0 3.0 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9
Cash from operating activity 207.0 208.0 231.0 247.0 257.6 261.3 268.0 275.0 282.1
Investment activity
Capital expenditures (110.0) (115.0) (120.0) (125.0) (126.2) (129.4) (132.6) (136.0) (139.3)
Net cash from investment activity (110.0) (115.0) (120.0) (125.0) (126.2) (129.4) (132.6) (136.0) (139.3)
Financing activity
Repayment of debt (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) - - - - -
New borrowings - - - - - - - - -
Dividends (78.0) (80.0) (83.0) (85.0) (86.4) (88.7) (91.1) (93.5) (96.0)
Net cash from financing activity (83.0) (85.0) (88.0) (90.0) (86.4) (88.7) (91.1) (93.5) (96.0)
Net increase/(decrease) in cash 14.0 8.0 23.0 32.0### 44.9 43.1 44.3 45.5 46.8
Cash beginning of year 25.0 39.0 47.0 70.0 102.0 146.9 190.0 234.3 279.8
Total 39.0 47.0 70.0 102.0 146.9 190.0 234.3 279.8 326.6
Minimum required operating cash n/a n/a n/a n/a 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Cash Surplus/(Deficit) n/a n/a n/a n/a 126.9 170.0 214.3 259.8 306.6
Revolver borrowings n/a n/a n/a n/a - - - - -
Revolver repayment n/a n/a n/a n/a - - - - -
Cash end of year $ 39.0 $ 47.0 $ 70.0 $ 102.0 146.9 190.0 234.3 279.8 326.6
Debt outstanding
Beginning $ 180.0 $ 180.0 $ 180.0 $ 180.0 $ 180.0
Less: Repayments - - - - -
Add: New borrowings - - - - -
Ending 180.0 180.0 180.0 180.0 180.0 180.0
Retained Earnings
Beginning $ 952.0 $ 1,022.7 $ 1,095.3 $ 1,169.9 $ 1,246.4
Add/(less): Net income/loss 157.2 161.3 165.6 170.0 174.5###
Less: dividends 86.4 88.7 91.1 93.5 96.0
Ending $ 952.0 $ 1,022.7 $ 1,095.3 $ 1,169.9 $ 1,246.4 $ 1,324.9
Fixed Assets
Beginning $ 660.0 $ 676.5 $ 693.3 $ 710.6 $ 728.4
Add: Capx 126.2 129.4 132.6 136.0 139.3
Less: Depreciation 109.8 112.5 115.3 118.2 121.2
Ending $ 660.0 $ 676.5 $ 693.3 $ 710.6 $ 728.4 $ 746.6
COST OF EQUITY
Risk-Free Rate (20 year U.S. Treasury) 2.05% https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
Market Risk Premium 5.2% http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/
Beta 0.45 Source from comparable public company analysis
Cost of Equity (CAPM) 4.4%
Company Size Risk 0.0%
Company Specific Risk 0.0%
Cost of Equity 4.4%
Debt
COST OF DEBT Outstanding % of Total Interest Rate Weighted
Asset Based Revolving Credit $ - 0.0% 5.00% 0.0%
Debt 180.0 100.0% 7.00% 7.0%
Total Material Debt $ 180.0 100.0% 7.0%
Tax rate 25.0%
After-Tax Cost of Debt 5.3%
Current Assets (excluding cash) $ 845.0 $ 851.7 $ 873.0 $ 894.8 $ 917.1 $ 940.1
Current Liabilities 350.0 347.3 356.0 364.9 374.0 383.4
Net Working Capital 495.0 504.4 517.0 529.9 543.1 556.7
VALUATION
Invested Capital Value $ 6,291.5 =NPV
Less: Total Outstanding Debt (180.0) (From Balance Sheet = Current & Long-Term)
Add: Cash 102.0 (From Balance Sheet)
EQUITY VALUE $ 6,213.5
EBITDA 2019 $ 331.9
Multiple of EBITDA 18.7
Details
Template: Capital IQ Default Comps
Currency: US Dollar
As-Of Date: Oct-16-2019
Summary Statistics TEV/Total Revenues LTM - TEV/EBITDA LTM - Latest TEV/EBIT LTM - Latest P/Diluted EPS Before Extra
Latest LTM - Latest
High 4.8x 22.1x 25.2x 43.3x
Low 2.2x 10.0x 11.9x 17.0x
Mean 3.0x 14.8x 18.3x 26.5x
Median 2.6x 14.2x 17.4x 24.6x
Displaying 11 Companies.
P/TangBV LTM - Latest NTM TEV/Forward Total NTM TEV/Forward EBITDA NTM Forward P/E (Capital IQ)
Revenue (Capital IQ) (Capital IQ)
9.2x 4.69x 21.91x 29.50x
9.2x 2.22x 10.55x 10.96x
9.2x 3.01x 14.57x 19.33x
9.2x 2.63x 13.51x 19.40x
Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE:CAG) > Quick Comparable Analysis > Operating Statistics
Details
Template: Capital IQ Default Comps
Currency: US Dollar
As-Of Date: Oct-16-2019
Summary Statistics LTM Gross Margin % LTM EBITDA Margin % LTM EBIT Margin % LTM Net Income Margin %
Displaying 11 Companies.
LTM Total Revenues, 1 Yr LTM EBITDA, 1 Yr Growth % LTM EBIT, 1 Yr Growth % LTM Net Income, 1 Yr Growth LTM Total Debt/Capital % LTM Total Debt/EBITDA
Growth % %
22.55% 9.68% 17.22% 22.96% 88.40% 5.7x
(3.42%) (17.93%) (21.07%) (65.33%) 4.07% 0.2x
3.03% (0.05%) (1.06%) (20.57%) 55.35% 3.9x
2.05% 3.05% 1.91% (19.16%) 60.68% 4.1x
NTM LT EPS Growth Rate 5 Year Beta
(Capital IQ)
3.93% 0.42
3.10% 0.54
7.82% 0.07
8.23% 0.81
3.14% 0.43
3.05% 1.01
7.00% 0.71
5.00% 0.05
7.00% 0.32 0.65
9.20% 0.13
3.20% 0.77 1.32
Comparable 1 AAA $ 25.00 25.500 $ 637.5 $ - $ 637.5 100% 0.85 $ 12.0 $ 625.5 $ 72.5 8.6
Comparable 2 BBB 34.00 33.100 1,125.4 463.9 1,589.3 71% 1.10 34.0 1,555.3 211.0 7.4
Comparable 3 CCC 29.00 34.500 1,000.5 328.0 1,328.5 75% 1.10 76.0 1,252.5 175.0 7.2
Comparable 4 DDD 22.00 29.700 653.4 387.0 1,040.4 63% 1.25 89.0 951.4 119.0 8.0
Comparable 5 EEE 30.00 35.500 1,065.0 425.0 1,490.0 71% 1.05 55.0 1,435.0 166.0 8.6
Comparable 6 FFF 41.00 32.000 1,312.0 310.0 1,622.0 81% 1.00 42.0 1,580.0 188.0 8.4