I.The Challenge of The Future PDF

Logistics
Class 1:
The Challenge of the Future
Class 1 The Challenge of the Future
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Class 1 The Challenge of the Future Class 1 The Challenge of the Future
Logistics Logistics
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Logistics Logistics
CourseKit CourseKit
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Logistics Logistics
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Course textbooks Course textbooks
Grading Grading
Assignments - 30%
Pitch project - 35%
Final exam - 35%
Logistics contacts Logistics contacts
Last name
A-Chang
Chen-E
F-I
J-Lee
Lei-Ng
Ni-Sc
Se-Th
Ti-Z
Logistics contacts Logistics contacts
Last name Contact Last name Contact email

A-Chang Rick Barber A-Chang Rick Barber barber5@stanford.edu
Chen-E Juan Batiz-Benet Chen-E Juan Batiz-Benet jbenet@cs.stanford.edu
F-I Sebastian Gill F-I Sebastian Gill sgil@stanford.edu
J-Lee Sean Kandel J-Lee Sean Kandel skandel@cs.stanford.edu
Lei-Ng Joseph Lau Lei-Ng Joseph Lau jhlau@stanford.edu
Ni-Sc Steven Na Ni-Sc Steven Na nayinan@stanford.edu
Se-Th Rob Ryan Se-Th Rob Ryan robryan@stanford.edu
Ti-Z Leslie Wu Ti-Z Leslie Wu lwu2@stanford.edu
Logistics contacts outline
Last name Contact email

A-Chang Rick Barber barber5@stanford.edu
Chen-E Juan Batiz-Benet jbenet@cs.stanford.edu
F-I Sebastian Gill sgil@stanford.edu
1. purpose
J-Lee Sean Kandel skandel@cs.stanford.edu 2. brief history of progress
Lei-Ng Joseph Lau jhlau@stanford.edu 3. the case for CS
Ni-Sc Steven Na nayinan@stanford.edu 4. future of progress
Se-Th Rob Ryan robryan@stanford.edu 5. why companies?
Ti-Z Leslie Wu lwu2@stanford.edu 6. why startups?
7. where to start?
TA office hours begin next week

See CourseKit for time slots
Pick the session that works best
Why we’re here outline
Humanities CS-183 1. purpose

2. brief history of progress
3. the case for CS
Macro 4. future of progress
5. why companies?
6. why startups?
Engineering 7. where to start?
Career
A brief history of progress A brief history of progress
100,000 100,000
GDP per capita (log)
10,000 10,000
1000 1000
100 100
Courtesy: Gibney Courtesy: Gibney
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
70
90
10
30
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70
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10
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YEAR YEAR
100,000 100,000

10,000 10,000
1000 1000
100 100
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
70
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10
30
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70
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YEAR YEAR
100,000 100,000
10,000 10,000
1000 1000
100 100
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
70
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10
30
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70
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YEAR YEAR
100,000 100,000

10,000 10,000
1000 1000
100 100
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
70
90
10
30
50
70
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10
30
50
70
90
10
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YEAR YEAR
100,000 100,000
10,000 10,000
1000 1000
100 100
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
30
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70
90
10
18
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YEAR YEAR
100,000 100,000

10,000 10,000
1000 1000
100 100
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
70
90
10
30
50
70
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10
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70
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YEAR YEAR
100,000 100,000
10,000 10,000
1000 1000
100 100
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
18
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YEAR YEAR
100,000 100,000

10,000 10,000
1000 1000
100 100
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
18
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YEAR YEAR
100,000 100,000
10,000 10,000
1000 1000
100 100
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
30
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70
90
10
18
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YEAR YEAR
A brief history of progress Something changed
Per-capita GDP, 1950s - present
$30,000%
100,000
10,000
$3,000%
%
50
60
70
80
90
00
10
1000
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
Real 1990s $USD Source: GGDC.net
100
Courtesy: Gibney
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
30
50
70
90
10
18
19
20
18
19
17
18
18
19
19
17
18
19
YEAR
The future: then The future: now
outline Rapid progress - data
1. purpose
3. the case for CS
4. future of progress
5. why companies?
6. why startups?
7. where to start?
Rapid progress - hardware Rapid progress - software
outline Progress in the 21st century
1. purpose
vertical or
2. brief history of progress intensive
3. the case for CS progress
5. why companies?
6. why startups?
7. where to start? horizontal or
extensive progress
Progress in the 21st century Progress in the 21st century
vertical or vertical or
intensive intensive
progress progress
doing new things doing new things
technology
horizontal or horizontal or
extensive progress extensive progress
copying things that work copying things that work
globalization
Progress in the 21st century The nature of progress
vertical or
intensive technology
progress
doing new things
technology
0 to 1
horizontal or globalization
extensive progress
copying things that work
globalization
1 to n
The nature of progress The challenge of 0 to 1
technology
0 to 1
globalization
1 to n
“An engineer is the closest thing to a magician
that exists in the real world.”
- Elon Musk
The challenge of 0 to 1 The challenge of 0 to 1
The challenge of exceptionalism
The challenge of exceptionalism The challenge of exceptionalism

The educational challenge The educational challenge
The narrative challenge
The challenge of exceptionalism The challenge of exceptionalism

The educational challenge The educational challenge
The narrative challenge The narrative challenge
Indeterminism vs. determinism Indeterminism vs. determinism
Luck vs. skill
The future of intensive growth The future of intensive growth
progress progress
time time
The future of intensive growth The future of intensive growth
progress progress
time time
The future of intensive growth The nature of progress
$100,000$
$10,000$
$1,000$
$100$
technology
0$
0$
0$
0$
0$
0$
0$
0$
0$
0$
$
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
$30,000%
globalization
$3,000%
%
%
50
60
70
80
90
00
10
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
The nature of progress outline
1. purpose
technology 2. brief history of progress
3. the case for CS
0 to 1
5. why companies?
6. why startups?
7. where to start?
globalization
1 to n
The economic case - narrow The economic case - narrow
Internal Internal
Coordination Coordination
costs “Optimum” costs “Optimum”
External External
Firm size Firm size

Everyone One large Everyone One large
a contractor entity a contractor entity
The economic case - narrow The economic case - narrow
Internal Internal
Coordination Coordination
costs “Optimum” costs “Optimum”
External External
Firm size Firm size

Everyone One large Everyone One large
a contractor entity a contractor entity
The economic case - broad The economic case - broad
Metcalfe, tribes, yoga and Path
Metcalfe, tribes, yoga and Path Metcalfe, tribes, yoga and Path
The Austrian critique The Austrian critique
Emotional thinking
Metcalfe, tribes, yoga and Path Metcalfe, tribes, yoga and Path
The Austrian critique The Austrian critique
Emotional thinking Emotional thinking
The consultant problem(s) The consultant problem(s)
The information age
The legal case The legal case
The legal case The legal case
The legal case outline
1. purpose
3. the case for CS
5. why companies?
6. why startups?
7. where to start?
Big companies Big government
Big nonprofit Startups
Why startup? Why startup?
Financial
Why startup? Why startup?
Financial Financial
Personal Personal
Mission
To make money To be remembered
Source: Kahneman and Deaton
To change the world The cost of failure
financial
non-financial
The cost of failure The cost of failure
lost pay financial lost pay financial

lost equity lost equity
non-financial non-financial
risk aversion
relationships
skills
The cost of failure The cost of failure
lost pay financial lost pay financial

lost equity lost equity
perceived perceived
actual
non-financial non-financial
risk aversion risk aversion
relationships relationships
skills skills
The cost of failure outline
lost pay financial

lost equity
perceived
1. purpose
3. the case for CS
“0-1” 4. future of progress
actual 5. why companies?
“1-n” 6. why startups?
non-financial 7. where to start?
risk aversion
relationships
skills
Where to start Where to start
What is
valuable?
What is What is
valuable? valuable?
What are
What can What can
others
I do? I do?
not doing?
The key question The key question
intellectual version
What important truth do very few people
agree with you on?
The key question Where to start
What is
valuable?
intellectual version
What important truth do very few people
agree with you on?
business version What are

What can
What valuable company is nobody building? I do?
others
not doing?
What is What is
valuable? valuable?
What are What are

What can What can
others others
I do? I do?
not doing? not doing?
Where to start
What is
valuable?
What are
What can
others
I do?
not doing?
Class 1 The Challenge of the Future

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Logistics

Class 1 The Challenge of the Future

CourseKit CourseKit .com

Course textbooks Course textbooks

Course textbooks Course textbooks

Logistics contacts Logistics contacts

Last name Contact Last name Contact email

Logistics contacts outline

Last name Contact email

TA office hours begin next week

Humanities CS-183 1. purpose

A brief history of progress A brief history of progress

GDP per capita (log)

GDP per capita (log)

A brief history of progress A brief history of progress

GDP per capita (log)

GDP per capita (log)

A brief history of progress A brief history of progress

GDP per capita (log)

GDP per capita (log)

A brief history of progress A brief history of progress

GDP per capita (log)

GDP per capita (log)

A brief history of progress A brief history of progress

GDP per capita (log)

Per-capita GDP, 1950s - present

The future: then The future: now

Rapid progress - hardware Rapid progress - software

Progress in the 21st century Progress in the 21st century

The nature of progress The challenge of 0 to 1

The challenge of exceptionalism

The challenge of 0 to 1 The challenge of 0 to 1

The challenge of exceptionalism The challenge of exceptionalism

The challenge of exceptionalism The challenge of exceptionalism

The future of intensive growth The future of intensive growth

The future of intensive growth The nature of progress

The economic case - narrow The economic case - narrow

Firm size Firm size

Firm size Firm size

The economic case - broad The economic case - broad

Metcalfe, tribes, yoga and Path

The economic case - broad The economic case - broad

The legal case The legal case

Big companies Big government

Why startup? Why startup?

To make money To be remembered

Source: Kahneman and Deaton

The cost of failure The cost of failure

lost pay financial lost pay financial

lost pay financial lost pay financial

The cost of failure outline

lost pay financial

Where to start Where to start

The key question Where to start

business version What are

What are What are

Class 1 The Challenge of the Future

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