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number 4, 2020
Overview
The COVID-19 pandemic is not
Hammer or nudge? Science-
only confronting the world with a
new and deadly virus – it has also
brought ‘science’ back into the lead of
based policy advice in the
policymaking. One can only welcome
this dramatic recognition of the value
and role of science to society amid the
COVID-19 pandemic
COVID-19 public health challenge.
T
However, the science-based policy he COVID-19 pandemic is not only confronting the world with a new
advice for measures to combat COVID-
and deadly virus – it has also brought ‘science’ back into the lead of
19 has also some worrying features.
Three are being discussed here. They policymaking. The global science community is busier than ever and open
have led to a strong national bias in science is becoming the norm as researchers routinely share their data.
both science-based policy advice and Meanwhile, the vaccine research community, both in public and private
in the national policies implemented research labs, is working together day and night in developing, experiment-
to combat COVID-19. Alternative ing and testing possible new vaccines. One can only welcome this dramatic
approaches are discussed focusing in
recognition of the value and role of science to society amid the COVID-19
particular on the European Union.
public health challenge. As if scientists wake up in a new world of facts and
evidence-based policy.
1
Written by Luc Soete . Edited by However, the science-based policy advice for measures to combat
Howard Hudson, UNU-MERIT COVID-19 has also some worrying features. First, a certain degree of arro-
gance of disciplinary knowledge with the rejection of any debate coming
© United Nations University 2020
from researchers outside of the virology and epidemiological professions.
ISBN 978-92-808-5015-4
Second, the imposition of confinement restrictions independently of other
Licensed under the Creative Commons behavioural or social sciences insights on the broader impact of such unique
Deed ‘Attribution-NonCommercial- societal experimentation. And third, the way current science-based policy
NoDerivs 2.5’ advice combatting COVID-19 appears imprisoned in national data, leading
to a strong national bias in policymaking.
The views expressed in this publication
are those of the authors and do not
necessarily reflect the views of United It leads us to present some alternative, more speculative views on
Nations University. the regional impact of the COVID-19 outbreak. These views are presented
as illustrations of the need to remain in science-based policy advice, even
when confronted with a dramatic pandemic such as COVID-19, open to
alternative views. They start from the wide disparity in COVID-19 contam-
ination, hospitalisation and fatalities. To what extent can the study of the
local environments which became breeding grounds not just of COVID-19
contamination but also of COVID-19 illness and mortality, provide addi-
tional insights. And in the same vein, to what extent are regions confronted
www.unu.edu
with the differential impact of sation and fatality rates. That vari-
COVID-19 not in a better position able will also be very different over
to design appropriate exit policies. time. Thus, historical comparisons
with previous pandemics such as
Crush the virus? the ‘Spanish Flu’ in the early 20th
century, apart from the major dif-
Viruses know no borders ferences in the characteristics of
and in our globalised world, the the infection with the Spanish Flu
undetected virus in pre- or asymp- – affecting more young people and
tomatic carriers – individuals not having a shorter incubation period
exhibiting any symptoms of the – ignore the very different social
disease (yet) – appears to have and economic environments within
led to an unusually fast ‘super- which individuals interacted 100
propagation’ of COVID-19 across years ago.
the world. Hence the calls for a
radical ‘hammer approach’2 in the The theoretical effective-
policy response to the COVID-19 ness of lockdown in these SIR
outbreak. Such a policy response models combined with the limited
is based on the well-known, so- medical, and in particular intensive
called SIR (Susceptible-Infectious- care facilities in most countries,
Removed) model3. Susceptible even the most developed ones, has
population runs into infected popu- led one naturally to focus on imme-
lation and gets infected at a rate β diate policies to reduce the degree of
which is the contact rate leading contact within a population leading
exponentially to new infections ultimately to various forms of con-
minus the rate γ of the infected pop- finement. And based on the histori-
ulation recovering or passing away. cal evidence from the Spanish Flu
Policy will be focused on reduc- pandemic5 in the USA, highlighting
ing the so-called basic reproduc- the fact that states with the tightest
tion number (R0=β/γ) indicating restrictions fared best economically
how many new cases one infected subsequently, strict confinement
person generates. Quite naturally, appears the best policy to imple-
lockdown will be considered the ment. Hence the standard policy
most effective way of reducing this view proposed and endorsed by the
reproduction number because doing World Health Organization on the
so reduces both the number of sus- need for testing and the fast imposi-
About the Author tion of strict confinement policies.
ceptible and infected populations.
Luc Soete (born 15 September However, and as pointed out by
1950, Sint-Jans-Molenbeek) is the ‘ The hammer’ is there-
Daron Acemoglu4, there is a lot of
former director of UNU-MERIT,
uncertainty about the parameters fore the preferred policy approach
former Rector Magnificus of
Maastricht University, and used in these epidemiological SIR for virologists and epidemiolo-
now Dean of the Institute for models. Ultimately, the contact rate gists. Through extreme measures
European Studies and Vesalius β is an economic and social vari- like social distancing, confinement,
College, VUB (Free University able which will reflect very differ- lockdown and travel restrictions,
of Brussels). Correspondence to: the ‘hammer’ crushes the spread of
ent types of interactions between
l.soete@maastrichtuniversity.nl
parts of the population with as a the virus and brings the R0 value
result different infection, hospitali- quickly well below 1. From this per-
2 Policy Brief
www.merit.unu.edu
4 Policy Brief
www.merit.unu.edu
diabetes and high blood pressure national. The latter ignored how the
appeared to be the most ‘susceptible concentration of more susceptible
population’ for becoming ill because groups in society differed not only
6 Policy Brief
www.merit.unu.edu
Conclusions effective European way, exploiting
now also more fully the notion of
Healthwise, a regional ‘subsidiarity’ in addressing COVID-
COVID-19 policy focus will natu- 19. Doing so, it would bring back
rally focus on the most vulner- the notion of solidarity between
able, susceptible parts of the local regions, as opposed to the current
population in combatting the pan- lack of solidarity between indi-
demic; the opposite as it were of vidual European Member States.
the smart specialisation develop- Solidarity between regions in the
ment strategies typically pursued EU as actually encapsulated in the Footnotes
in European regions, namely weak European Treaties and reflected 12) Andrée, B.P.J. (2020), Incidence of
regional vulnerabilities specialisa- in the particular attention given COVID-19 and Connections with Air
tion. Implementing regional con- to the so-called cohesion funds in Pollution Exposure Evidence from the
finement or quarantine raises of European integration would pos- Netherlands, Policy Research Working Paper
course complex implementation and sibly be the best response to rebuild 9221, April.
maintenance issues. How to prevent European values at this time of 13) A recent paper by Martelletti, L and
people from being mobile between COVID -19 crisis, contributing not Martelletti, P., Air Pollution and the Novel
a confined region and other regions just to economic convergence across Covid-19 Disease: a Putative Disease Risk
Factor, SN Compr. Clin. Med, https://doi.
within a country?14 For sure, it is Europe but also to health and social
org/10.1007/s42399-020-00274-4 claims
easier to close a national border convergence. that the “SARS virus and other respiratory
than to confine a particular region, diseases such as COPD (chronic obstructive
as Italy witnessed when it attempted pulmonary disease) find fertile ‘territory’ in air
to do so in the early stages of the pollutant particles and, in a linear relationship,
COVID-19 outbreak. But les- they survive longer and become more aggressive
in an immune system already aggravated by
sons could be learned. Ultimately,
these harmful substances.” In another recent
it raises similar practical problems study of Yaron Ogen, Assessing nitrogen
of immediate, sudden closure and dioxide (NO2) levels as a contributing factor to
restricting the mobility of individu- coronavirus (COVID-19), Science of the Total
als to what are considered essential Environment 726 (2020) 138605 https://doi.
activities. The main point is that org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138605, a
regional spatial analysis has been conducted
putting a region into quarantine
for 66 administrative regions in Italy, Spain,
is likely to have a more limited France and Germany. Results show that the
impact on the overall economy than concentration of COVID-19 fatality cases
national confinement policies. It was in five regions with the highest NO2
will also enable one to introduce concentrations combined with downwards
deconfinement policies more gradu- airflow preventing an efficient dispersion of
air pollution. As the paper highlights: “These
ally, taking into account regional
results indicate that the long-term exposure to
differences in contamination levels. this pollutant may be one of the most important
Here too more targeted responses contributors to fatality caused by the COVID-
in the exit strategy in line with the 19 virus in these regions and maybe across the
geographical characteristics will be whole world.”
more effective. 14) Of course it can be argued that many
European countries have had experience
And from a European per- in cross-border regions with such regional
spective, such regional approach confinement policies having closed their
borders.
would open up the policy window
of addressing COVID-19 in a more
INSIDE:
Policy Brief
The United Nations University – Maastricht Economic and Social
Hammer or nudge?
Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU-MERIT) is
a research and training institute of United Nations University based
Science-based
in Maastricht in the south of the Netherlands. The institute, which
collaborates closely with Maastricht University, carries out research and
policy advice in the
training on a range of social, political and economic factors that drive COVID-19 pandemic
economic development in a global perspective. Overall the institute
functions as a unique research centre and graduate school for around Some 25 years after
100 PhD fellows and 140 Master’s students. It is also a UN think tank
addressing a broad range of policy questions on science, innovation
the Schengen Accord,
and democratic governance. COVID-19 has
undermined the notion of
European values in favour
of primarily national
expert advice and values:
a first collateral damage of
COVID-19 in Europe.
The Netherlands
6211 AX Maastricht
Boschstraat 24
Innovation and Technology
social Research institute on
Maastricht Economic and
Uniter Nations University -