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Chapter 8: Production Decline Analysis: BQ DT DQ Q
Chapter 8: Production Decline Analysis: BQ DT DQ Q
8.1 Introduction
Production decline analysis is a traditional means of identifying well production
problems and predicting well performance and life based on real production data. It uses
empirical decline models that have little fundamental justifications. These models include
• Exponential decline (constant fractional decline)
• Harmonic decline, and
• Hyperbolic decline.
While the hyperbolic decline model is more general, the other two models are
degenerations of the hyperbolic decline model. These three models are related through
the following relative decline rate equation (Arps, 1945):
1 dq
= −bq d (8.1)
q dt
where b and d are empirical constants to be determined based on production data. When d
= 0, Eq (8.1) degenerates to an exponential decline model, and when d = 1, Eq (8.1)
yields a harmonic decline model. When 0 < d < 1, Eq (8.1) derives a hyperbolic decline
model. The decline models are applicable to both oil and gas wells.
kh( pt − p cwf )
q= (8.2)
⎡ ⎛ 0.472re ⎞ ⎤
141.2 B0 μ ⎢ln⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ + s ⎥
⎣ ⎝ rw ⎠ ⎦
The cumulative oil production of the well after the production decline time t can be
expressed as:
8-1
t kh( pt − p cwf )
Np = ∫ dt (8.3)
⎡ ⎛ 0.472re ⎞ ⎤
141.2 Bo μ ⎢ln⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ + s ⎥
0
⎣ ⎝ rw ⎠ ⎦
The cumulative oil production after the production decline upon decline time t can also
be evaluated based on the total reservoir compressibility:
ct N i
Np = ( p 0 − pt ) (8.4)
Bo
t kh( pt − p cwf )
∫ dt =
ct N i
( p 0 − pt ) (8.5)
⎡ ⎛ 0.472re ⎞ ⎤ Bo
141.2 Bo μ ⎢ln⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ + s ⎥
0
⎣ ⎝ rw ⎠ ⎦
Taking derivative on both sides of this equation with respect to time t gives the
differential equation for reservoir pressure:
kh( pt − p cwf ) dp t
= −ct N i (8.6)
⎡ ⎛ 0.472re ⎞ ⎤ dt
141.2μ ⎢ln⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ + s ⎥
⎣ ⎝ rw ⎠ ⎦
dq kh dp t
= (8.7)
dt ⎡ ⎛ 0.472re ⎞ ⎤ dt
141.2 B0 μ ⎢ln⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ + s ⎥
⎣ ⎝ rw ⎠ ⎦
Eq (8.6) becomes
⎡ ⎛ 0.472re ⎞ ⎤
− 141.2ct N i μ ⎢ln⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ + s ⎥
⎣ ⎝ r ⎠ ⎦ dq
q=
w
(8.8)
kh dt
8-2
or the relative decline rate equation of
1 dq
= −b (8.9)
q dt
where
kh
b= . (8.10)
⎡ ⎛ 0.472re ⎞ ⎤
141.2 μct N i ⎢ln⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ + s ⎥
⎣ ⎝ rw ⎠ ⎦
dpt
− b( pt − p cwf ) = (8.11)
dt
By separation of variables, Eq (8.11) can be integrated
t pt
dpt
− ∫ bdt = ∫ (p (8.12)
t − p wf )
c
0 p0
(
pt = p cwf + p 0 − p cwf )e −bt
(8.13)
Substituting Eq (8.13) into Eq (8.2) gives well production rate decline equation:
kh( p0 − p cwf )
q= e −bt (8.14)
⎡ ⎛ 0.472re ⎞ ⎤
141.2 Bo μ ⎢ln⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ + s ⎥
⎣ ⎝ rw ⎠ ⎦
or
bct N i
q= ( p0 − p cwf ) e −bt (8.15)
Bo
which is the exponential decline model commonly used for production decline analysis of
solution-gas-drive reservoirs. In practice, the following form of Eq (8.15) is used:
q = qi e −bt (8.16)
where qi is the production rate at t = 0.
q 2 q3 q
It can be shown that = = ...... = n = e −b . That is, the fractional decline is constant
q1 q2 qn−1
8-3
for exponential decline. As an exercise, this is left to the reader to prove.
i.e.,
Np =
qi
b
( )
1 − e −bt . (8.18)
Np =
1
(qi − q ) . (8.19)
b
ln (q ) = ln (q i ) − bt (8.20)
which implies that the data should form a straight line with a slope of -b on the log(q)
versus t plot, if exponential decline is the right model. Picking up any two points, (t1, q1)
and (t2, q2), on the straight line will allow analytical determination of b-value because
ln (q1 ) = ln (q i ) − bt 1 (8.21)
and
ln (q 2 ) = ln (q i ) − bt 2 (8.22)
give
1 ⎛q ⎞
b= ln ⎜⎜ 1 ⎟⎟ .
(t 2 − t1 ) ⎝ q 2 ⎠
(8.23)
If production rate and cumulative production data are available, the b-value can be
obtained based on the slope of the straight line on an Np versus q plot. In fact, rearranging
Eq (8.19) yields:
8-4
q = qi − bN p (8.24)
Picking up any two points, (Np1, q1) and (Np2, q2), on the straight line will allow analytical
determination of b-value because
q1 = q i − bN p1 (8.25)
and
q 2 = q i − bN p 2 (8.26)
give
q1 − q 2
b= . (8.27)
N p 2 − N p1
Depending on the unit of time t, the b can have different units such as month-1 and year-1.
The following relation can be derived:
ba = 12 bm = 365 bd . (8.28)
where ba, bm, and bd are annual, monthly, and daily decline rates.
q = qi (1− b')
t
(8.29)
q 2 q3 q
Again, it can be shown that = = ...... = n = 1 − b' .
q1 q 2 qn −1
Depending on the unit of time t, the b' can have different units such as month-1 and year-
1
. The following relation can be derived:
8-5
Example Problem 8-1:
Given that a well has declined from 100 stb/day to 96 stb/day during a one-month period,
use the exponential decline model to perform the following tasts:
Solution:
1 ⎛q ⎞
bm = ln ⎜⎜ 0 m ⎟⎟
(t1m − t 0 m ) ⎝ q1 m ⎠
⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 100 ⎞
= ⎜ ⎟ ln⎜ ⎟ = 0.04082/month
⎝ 1 ⎠ ⎝ 96 ⎠
q0 m − q1m 100 − 96
b' m = = = 0.04 /month .
q0 m 100
From
one gets
b' y = 0.3875/year
8-6
b y = 0.04082(12) = 0.48986/year
q0 − q1 ⎛ 100 − 61.27 ⎞
N p ,1 = =⎜ ⎟365 = 28,858 stb
by ⎝ 0.48986 ⎠
or
⎡ ⎛ 100 ⎞⎤⎛ 1 ⎞ 1
bd = ⎢ln⎜ ⎟⎥⎜ ⎟ = 0.001342
⎣ ⎝ 96 ⎠⎦⎝ 30.42 ⎠ day
N p ,1 =
100
0.001342
( )
1 − e −0.001342 (365 ) = 28,858 stb
N p,2 =
61.27
0.001342
(
1 − e −0.001342(365 ) ) = 17,681 stb
N p ,3 =
37.54
0.001342
(1 − e −0.001342(365) ) = 10,834 stb
q3 = qi e − bt = 100e −0.04082(12 )( 3) = 23.00 stb/day
N p,4 =
23.00
0.001342
(
1 − e −0.001342(365 ) ) = 6,639 stb
N p ,5 =
14.09
0.001342
(
1 − e −0.001342(365 ) ) = 4,061 stb
In summary,
8-7
Rate at End of Year Yearly Production
Year
(stb/day) (stb)
0 100.00 -
1 61.27 28,858
2 37.54 17,681
3 23.00 10,834
4 14.09 6,639
5 8.64 4,061
68,073
1 dq
= −bq (8.31)
q dt
q0
q= (8.32)
1 + bt
which gives:
q0
Np = ln(1 + bt ) . (8.33)
b
Np =
q0
[ln(q0 ) − ln(q )] . (8.34)
b
8-8
8.4 Hyperbolic Decline
When 0 < d < 1, integration of Eq (8.1) gives:
q t
dq
∫q q1+d = −∫0 bdt (8.35)
0
which results in
q0
q= (8.36)
(1+ dbt )1/ d
or
q0
q= a (8.37)
⎛ b ⎞
⎜1 + t ⎟
⎝ a ⎠
where a = 1/d.
which gives:
aq0 ⎡ ⎛ b ⎞ ⎤
1− a
Np = ⎢ ⎜
1 − 1 + t ⎟ ⎥. (8.38)
b(a − 1) ⎢⎣ ⎝ a ⎠ ⎥⎦
a ⎡ ⎛ b ⎞⎤
Np = ⎢ q 0 − q ⎜1 + t ⎟ ⎥ . (8.39)
b(a − 1) ⎣ ⎝ a ⎠⎦
8-9
decline model may be verified by plotting the relative decline rate defined by Eq (8.1).
Figure 8-5 shows such a plot. This work can be easily performed with computer program
UcomS.exe.
Np
8-10
q
t
Figure 8-3: A plot of log(q) versus log(t) indicating a harmonic decline
Np
8-11
Δq
−
qΔt
ne
D ecli
n ic
Ha r mo
line
olic Dec
Hyperb
Exponential Decline
8-12
1. Select points (t1, q1)
and (t2, q2)
2. Read t3 at q3 = q1q2 q
⎛ b ⎞ t + t − 2t3
3. Calculate ⎜ ⎟ = 1 2 2
⎝a⎠ t3 − t1t2
4. Find q0 at t = 0 1
Computer program UcomS.exe can be used for both model identification and model
parameter determination, as well as production rate prediction.
8-13
Solution:
A plot of log(q) versus t is presented in Figure 8-7 which shows a straight line.
According to Eq (8.20), the exponential decline model is applicable. This is further
evidenced by the relative decline rate shown in Figure 8-8.
1 ⎛ 135 ⎞
b= ln ⎜ ⎟ = 0 .1 1/month
(5 − 20 ) ⎝ 607 ⎠
Projected production rate profile is shown in Figure 8-9.
10000
1000
q (STB/D)
100
10
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
t (month)
8-14
Figure 8-7: A plot of log(q) versus t showing an exponential decline
0.15
0.14
-Δ q/Δ t/q (Month-1) 0.13
0.12
0.11
0.1
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
3 203 403 603 803 1003
q (STB/D)
1000
900
800
700
q (STB/D)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0 10 20 30 40
t (month)
8-15
Table 8-2: Production Data for Example Problem 8-3
Solution:
A plot of relative decline rate is shown in Figure 8-10 which clearly indicates a
harmonic decline model.
q0 = 10,000 stb/day at t = 0
q1 = 5,680 stb/day at t = 2 years
10,000
−1
5,680
b= = 0.38 1/year .
2
8-16
0.4
0.35
-Δq/Δt/q (year-1)
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00
q (1000 STB/D)
12
10
q (1000 STB/D)
0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
t (year)
Solution:
A plot of relative decline rate is shown in Figure 8-12 which clearly indicates a
hyperbolic decline model.
Select points:
8-17
t1 = 0.2 year , q1 = 9,280 stb/day
t2 = 3.8 years, q2 = 3,490 stb/day
Read from decline curve (Figure 8-13) t3 = 1.75 yaers at q3 = 5,670 stb/day.
⎛ 10,000 ⎞
log⎜ ⎟
a= ⎝ 6,280 ⎠
= 1.75
log(1 + (0.217 )(1.4) )
0.36
0.34
-Δq/Δt/q (year-1)
0.32
0.3
0.28
0.26
0.24
0.22
0.2
3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00
q (1000 STB/D)
12
10
q (1000 STB/D)
0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
t (year)
8-19
12
10
q (1000 STB/D)
8
0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
t (year)
* * * * *
Summary
This chapter presented empirical models and procedure of using the models to perform
production decline data analyses. Computer program UcomS.exe can be used for model
identification, model parameter determination, and production rate prediction.
References
Arps, J.J.: “ Analysis of Decline Curves,” Trans. AIME, 160, 228-247, 1945.
Golan, M. and Whitson, C.M.: Well Performance, International Human Resource
Development Corp., 122-125, 1986.
Economides, M.J., Hill, A.D., and Ehlig-Economides, C.: Petroleum Production
Systems, Prentice Hall PTR, Upper Saddle River, 516-519, 1994.
Problems
8.1 For the data given in the following table, identify a suitable decline model, determine
model parameters, and project production rate till the end of the 10th year. Predict
yearly oil productions:
8-20
Time (year) Production Rate (1,000 stb/day)
0.1 9.63
0.2 9.29
0.3 8.98
0.4 8.68
0.5 8.4
0.6 8.14
0.7 7.9
0.8 7.67
0.9 7.45
1 7.25
1.1 7.05
1.2 6.87
1.3 6.69
1.4 6.53
1.5 6.37
1.6 6.22
1.7 6.08
1.8 5.94
1.9 5.81
2 5.68
2.1 5.56
2.2 5.45
2.3 5.34
2.4 5.23
2.5 5.13
2.6 5.03
2.7 4.94
2.8 4.84
2.9 4.76
3 4.67
3.1 4.59
3.2 4.51
3.3 4.44
3.4 4.36
8.2 For the data given in the following table, identify a suitable decline model, determine
model parameters, predict the time when the production rate will decline to a
marginal value of 500 stb/day, and the reverses to be recovered before the marginal
production rate is reached:
8-21
Time (year) Production Rate (stb/day)
0.1 9.63
0.2 9.28
0.3 8.95
0.4 8.64
0.5 8.35
0.6 8.07
0.7 7.81
0.8 7.55
0.9 7.32
1 7.09
1.1 6.87
1.2 6.67
1.3 6.47
1.4 6.28
1.5 6.1
1.6 5.93
1.7 5.77
1.8 5.61
1.9 5.46
2 5.32
2.1 5.18
2.2 5.05
2.3 4.92
2.4 4.8
2.5 4.68
2.6 4.57
2.7 4.46
2.8 4.35
2.9 4.25
3 4.15
3.1 4.06
3.2 3.97
3.3 3.88
3.4 3.8
8.3 For the data given in the following table, identify a suitable decline model, determine
model parameters, predict the time when the production rate will decline to a
marginal value of 50 Mscf/day, and the reverses to be recovered before the marginal
production rate is reached:
8-22
Time Production Rate
(Month) (Mscf/day)
1 904.84
2 818.73
3 740.82
4 670.32
5 606.53
6 548.81
7 496.59
8 449.33
9 406.57
10 367.88
11 332.87
12 301.19
13 272.53
14 246.6
15 223.13
16 201.9
17 182.68
18 165.3
19 149.57
20 135.34
21 122.46
22 110.8
23 100.26
24 90.72
8.4 For the data given in the following table, identify a suitable decline model, determine
model parameters, predict the time when the production rate will decline to a
marginal value of 50 stb/day, and yearly oil productions:
1 1810
2 1637
3 1482
4 1341
5 1213
6 1098
7 993
8-23
8 899
9 813
10 736
11 666
12 602
13 545
14 493
15 446
16 404
17 365
18 331
19 299
20 271
21 245
22 222
23 201
24 181
8-24