Project Screening: How To Say "No" Without Hurting Your Career or Your Company

Project Screening: How to say
“No” without hurting your

career or your company
Eduardo Miranda
ESCOM
April, 2001
Ericsson Research Canada © 2001, All rights reserved Eduardo Miranda, ESCOM, April 2001
More projects have gone awry for lack
of calendar time than for any other
reasons combined.
F. Brook, 1982
The Standish Group Report
l The Standish Group research shows a staggering 31.1% of projects
will be canceled before they ever get completed. Further results
indicate 52.7% of projects will cost 189% of their original estimates.
l Resolution Type 1, or project success: The project is completed on-time and on-
budget, with all features and functions as initially specified.
l Resolution Type 2, or project challenged: The project is completed and operational
but over-budget, over the time estimate, and offers fewer features and functions than
originally specified.
l Resolution Type 3, or project impaired: The project is canceled at some point during
the development cycle.
Many of these projects should have
never started under the conditions
they did
The House
Joe wants a house, ...
… and he wants it built in a day

Habitat for Humanity, World record 3:44:59
210 people
Epilog
l Joe understands that the requirement to have the house

built in a day is not only impossible to achieve, but also
contrary to his interests
l He retains you as the architect for the project
l After 4 months of hard work and some minor glitches, you

all celebrate Joe’s new house with a big party.
The Software
Bill calls you to his office and says…
We won’t be able
to make it.
Epilog
l …
The solution
l Project complexity visualization
l Decision rules
Visualizing software projects
Probability of
being late
Internal
Interfaces
Staff
Number of people necessary
How do programmers spend their time?
Job
Communications
32%
How do projects spend their time?
Interfaces
1400
1200
Comunication Paths
1000
800
600
400
200
0
5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Number of Subsystems
Intra -Team Inter -Team
Variances on the ISBG data set
Project Profile - Visualizing the project
complexity
60
50
40
30
20
10
Prob. of being late
0 Interfaces
6 Staff
12
18
24
Another view of the same profile
6 months
schedule
65 %
Probability of
60 %
being late
30
55 % 24 months
Internal
schedule
5 20 interfaces
10
15
Staff
Project Profiles Table
Decision rules
Can change
Criticality
technical
Internal On-time of
People approach or Recommendation
Interfaces Probability Delivery
increase
Date
productivity?
> 50% Go ahead
Re-evaluate. Be suspicious of
Yes breakthroughs. Very few
- Have qualified resources - Able to manage improvements pay-off the first time.
High
- Able to build team - Able to test
- Able to manage team - Able to integrate 35% < p <= 50% - Renegotiate schedule
No
- Enough leaders to co- - Renegotiate scope
ordinate
No Go ahead
- Renegotiate schedule
<= 35%
- Renegotiate scope
No to any of the - Renegotiate schedule
above - Renegotiate scope
- Renegotiate schedule
No to any of the above
- Renegotiate scope
Estimating people, interfaces and
probabilities
l Simple, understandable relationships
l Consistent with own experience
l Credible
l Minimum information
Number of people
ProjectStaff = NominalHeadcount + IntraTeamAdj + InterTeamAdj
ApplicationSize
NominalHeadcount =
Productivity * Schedule
NominalHeadCount
TeamSize =
NoSubsystems
TeamSize * (TeamSize − 1)
IntraTeamAdj = * Overhead
2
TeamSize * NoSubsystems * ( NoSubsystems − 1)

InterTeamAdj = * Overhead
2
Communications in an organization
Estimating the number of communication paths
Partitioned
Intra Team Communications
Communication
Model
Inter Team Communications
Number of interactions / internal interfaces
CommPaths = NoSubsyste ms * IntraTeamC omm + InterTeamC omm
TeamSize * (TeamSize − 1)
IntraTeamC omm =
2
NoSubsyste ms * ( NoSubsyste ms − 1)
InterTeamC omm =
2
Sources of schedule variations
Number of un-planned
iterations
+
Activity length and +
variance
- Schedule
Activity familiarity
Uncertainty
+
Performance uncertainty
+
-
Unknown unknowns
Uncertainty reduction
actions
Schedule uncertainty
Project 1
On-time
latest
completion
probabilities
Project 2 date
earliest planned planned latest

completion completion completion completion
date date +10% date
• Uncertainty (σ) Project 1 < Uncertainty (σ) Project 2

• On-time probability Project 1 > On-time probability Project
2
Uncertainty assessment
Prob. of not
Risk Factor completing the
task on-time (%)
Initial uncertainty value 5
New product development + [2.5, 5]
New technology / process being used + [2.5, 5]
If applicable
People capability / experience + [2.5, 5]
Multiple organizations involved + [2.5, 5]
Unknown unknowns + [2.5, 5]

Uncertainty Assessment (%) = S risk factors
On-time probability
( Latest − Planned + 10 %) 2
OntimeProb ability = 1 −
( Latest − Earliest ) * ( Latest − Planned )
Earliest = Planned − σ Project
Latest = Planned + 3 * σ Project
σ Project
= σ 2
Design
+σ 2
Developmen t
+σ 2
Integratio n
σ Design
= DesignLead Time * (Uncertaint y + NoSubsyste ms * .01)
σ Developmen t
= Developmen tLeadTime * (Uncertaint y + ProjectSta ff * .01)
σ Integratio n
= Integratio nLeadTime * (Uncertaint y + InternalIn terfaces * .01)
Project Profiles Table
HLR SCP
HLR
200~400%
100%
SCP
Concluding remarks
l Many projects are doom from the beginning
l In order to say “No” without jeopardizing your career a

shared understanding of the project complexity is needed
l The difference between a challenging project and a “Death
March” one, is not one or two people
l Agreed decision rules limit conflict to an assessment of
the inputs

Project Screening: How To Say "No" Without Hurting Your Career or Your Company

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Project Screening: How To Say "No" Without Hurting Your Career or Your Company

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Project Screening: How to say

“No” without hurting your

… and he wants it built in a day

l Joe understands that the requirement to have the house

l He retains you as the architect for the project

l After 4 months of hard work and some minor glitches, you

l Project complexity visualization

Intra -Team Inter -Team

> 50% Go ahead

l Simple, understandable relationships

l Consistent with own experience

TeamSize * NoSubsystems * ( NoSubsystems − 1)

Inter Team Communications

CommPaths = NoSubsyste ms * IntraTeamC omm + InterTeamC omm

earliest planned planned latest

• Uncertainty (σ) Project 1 < Uncertainty (σ) Project 2

People capability / experience + [2.5, 5]

Multiple organizations involved + [2.5, 5]

Unknown unknowns + [2.5, 5]

Latest = Planned + 3 * σ Project

l Many projects are doom from the beginning

l In order to say “No” without jeopardizing your career a

You might also like