2018 Outlook For Energy: A View To 2040

2019
OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY:

2018 OutlookA PERSPECTIVE
for Energy: A View to 2040 TO 2040
October 2019
The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates of both historical levels and projections of challenging topics such as energy demand, supply, and
trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from many external sources including the International Energy Agency. Separate
from ExxonMobil’s analysis, we include a number of third party scenarios such as the EMF 27 scenarios and the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario. Third-party scenarios
discussed in this report reflect the modeling assumptions and outputs of their respective authors, not ExxonMobil, and their use and inclusion herein is not an endorsement by
ExxonMobil of their likelihood or probability. Work on the Outlook and report was conducted during 2018 and the first half of 2019. The report contains forward looking
statements, including projections, targets, expectations, estimates and assumptions of future behaviors. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy
supply, the growth of energy demand and supply, the impact of new technologies, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and
exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, the ability to scale new technologies on a cost-effective basis, unexpected technological
developments, the development of new supply sources, changes in law or government policy, political events, demographic changes and migration patterns, trade patterns, the ‹#›
development and enforcement of global, regional or national mandates, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the
Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY
Energy is essential for society's progress
U.N. 2017
Human
Development
Index
THE SIZE OF THE CIRCLES DEPICTS

RELATIVE SIZE OF POPULATION
~50% World Population
2015 Energy Demand per Capita (1000 BTU/person/day)
Source U.N. Human Development Reports 2018, World Bank DataBank 2019, EM analyses, updated 9/11/2019
Energy trends vary by sector and geography
Global energy demand by sector Relative energy demand by region

Primary energy – Quadrillion BTUs Percent of primary energy (%)
Growth '17-'40
Residential/Commercial
Other Non-OECD
Industrial
India
Electricity China
Generation
Other OECD
Europe OECD
Light-duty Transportation
Commercial Transportation United States

Transportation Demand Driven by Non-OECD

By Sector Growth 2017-2040
MBDOE MBDOE
75 Rail 12 OECD
NonOECD
Aviation
8
Marine
50
4
Heavy Duty
0
25 Net
-4
Light Duty
-8
0 Light Duty Heavy Marine Aviation Rail
2000 2020 2040 Duty
New Light Duty Vehicle Fuel Consumption

New Vehicles by Type Light Duty Vehicle Demand
Million MBDOE
150 10
Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell
Hybrid
Natural Gas & LPG
8
Diesel
Gasoline
100
6 United States
4
China
50
Other AP Non-OECD
India
2
Europe OECD
AP OECD
0 0
2017 2025 2040 2000 2020 2040
Global energy mix shifts to lower-carbon fuels

Global energy mix
Quadrillion BTUs Percent of primary energy (%)
2017 Other
Oil renewables
Wind/Solar
Natural gas Nuclear
Natural gas
Coal
Electricity
Other
renewables Oil
Nuclear
Wind/Solar
Coal
Liquids demand driven by transportation & chemicals

Global liquids by region and sector
MBDOE
Other
Chemicals
Commercial
transportation
Light-duty
transportation
'17 '25 '40
North Latin Africa Europe Russia/ Middle Asia

America America Caspian East Pacific
Liquids supply highlights regional diversity

By region and type
MBDOE
Other / Biofuels
Natural Gas Liquids
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
Deepwater
Conventional Crude & Condensate
. Demand
Net
Net exports
imports
'17 '25 '40

Global Natural Gas Demand and Supply

Demand by Sector Demand by Region Supply by Delivery Type
BCFD BCFD BCFD
600 600 600
Transportation
Asia LNG
Res/Comm
Pacific
400 400 400 Pipeline
Africa
Industrial Middle East

Latin America
200 200 200
North America
Local Production
Electricity
Generation Europe
Russia/Caspian
0 0 0
2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040
Gas supply highlights regional diversity

Gas supply highlights regional diversity
Share of growth 2017-2040
BCFD Supply type Production
LNG imports
Pipeline imports
Local unconventional production
Local conventional production
Total production
Net
exports Net
imports
'00 '17 '25 '40

PURSUING A 2ºC A perspective on the role of oil and natural gas and the
PATHWAY importance of technology in a decarbonizing world
11
Emissions vary with policy and technology assumptions
Global energy-related CO2 emissions

Billion tonnes
EMF27-base-FT
scenarios
2019 Outlook for Energy
EMF27-450-FT
scenarios
EMF27-FT cases include CO2 emissions from energy and industrial processes
EMF27 full technology scenarios data downloaded from: https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/AR5DB

Assessed 2ºC scenarios: 2040 global energy mix
2040 global demand by energy type from assessed 2oC scenarios

Exajoules
Non-bio renewables
Bioenergy
Bioenergy w/ CCS
Nuclear
Coal
Coal w/ CCS
Natural gas
Natural gas w/ CCS
Oil
Oil w/ CCS
EMF27 full technology scenarios data downloaded from: https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/AR5DB
*IEA WEO 2018 SDS includes CCS but breakdown by energy type is not readily identifiable
Supply / demand gap warrant investment

Global oil supply and demand Global natural gas supply and demand
MBDOE BCFD
Outlook demand
High demand based
High demand based on assessed 2ºC
on assessed 2ºC scenarios
scenarios
Outlook demand
New supply required Average demand Average demand

based on assessed based on assessed
2ºC scenarios 2ºC scenarios
New supply required
Low demand based
on assessed 2ºC
Low demand
scenarios
based on
assessed 2ºC
scenarios
Decline without Decline without

investment investment
Excludes biofuels; Source: IEA, EM analyses Source: IHS, EM analyses

Assessed 2oC scenarios based on EMF27 full technology/450ppm cases targeting a 2 oC pathway Assessed 2oC scenarios based on EMF27 full technology/450ppm cases targeting a 2 oC pathway
Supply / demand gap warrant investment

Global oil supply and demand Global natural gas supply and demand
MBDOE BCFD
Outlook demand
High demand based
High demand based on assessed 2ºC
on assessed 2ºC scenarios
scenarios
Outlook demand
New supply required Average demand Average demand

based on assessed based on assessed
2ºC scenarios 2ºC scenarios
New supply required
Low demand based
on assessed 2ºC
Low demand
scenarios
based on
assessed 2ºC
scenarios
Decline without Decline without

investment investment
Excludes biofuels; Source: IEA, EM analyses Source: IHS, EM analyses

Assessed 2oC scenarios based on EMF27 full technology/450ppm cases targeting a 2 oC pathway Assessed 2oC scenarios based on EMF27 full technology/450ppm cases targeting a 2 oC pathway
Technology key to reducing societal costs of 2ºC pathway
2017 energy-related direct CO2 emissions by sector

Billion Tons
Technology Breakthrough Opportunities
Power grid reliability & long-duration storage:

Batteries, chemical storage, hydrogen
Lower-carbon commercial transport: algae &

cellulosic biofuels, fuel cells, batteries
Non OECD Lower-carbon industrial processes: carbon capture,

hydrogen, process intensification
Advanced, less carbon-intensive materials for

efficient buildings and infrastructure
OECD Negative emissions: bioenergy with carbon capture,

direct air capture, CO2 utilization
Residential / Light-duty Commercial Industrial Power

Commercial transportation transportation generation
Key takeaways from 2040 projections

Energy is fundamental for modern life Commerce and trade drive transportation energy
consumption up more than 25 percent
Access to modern energy is intrinsically linked with improvements in
quality of life. Over the next few decades, increasing populations and Increased on-road efficiency and more EVs will lead to a decline in
rising prosperity will increase demand for homes, businesses and light duty vehicle fuel demand. Overall transportation fuel demand
transportation - and the energy that powers them.
growth is driven by increased commercial activity - moving more
people and products by bus, rail, plane, truck and marine vessel.
Global energy demand rises by 20 percent; demand Energy-dense, affordable and widely available oil will remain the
trends differ for OECD and non-OECD predominant transportation fuel.
Continued innovation will help OECD economies expand while

reducing their energy demand by about 5 percent and energy-related Global energy related CO2 emissions peak, but remain
CO2 emissions by nearly 25 percent. In the non-OECD countries, above assessed 2oC scenarios
energy use and emissions will rise along with population growth,
increased access to modern energy and improving living standards. Increased energy efficiency and a shift to lower carbon energy
sources will help curb CO2 emissions, but not sufficiently to reach a
2oC pathway. Creative technology solutions are still needed to
Global electricity demand rises 60 percent achieve society’s climate aspirations.
The trend to electrify buildings, factories, cars and buses, along with
smart appliances and greater automation, spurs the need for more Oil and Natural Gas remain important energy sources
electricity everywhere. Solar, wind, and natural gas contribute the and require significant investment
most to meeting growth in electricity demand.
Oil and natural gas make up about 55 percent of global energy use
Almost half of the world’s energy is dedicated to today. By 2040, 10 of the 13 assessed 2oC scenarios project that oil
industrial activity and gas will continue to supply more than 50 percent of global
energy. Investment in oil and natural gas is required to replace natural
New homes and roads will be constructed and household appliances decline from existing production and to meet future demand under all
produced as a result of rising population and urbanization. Steel, assessed 2oC scenarios.
cement and chemicals are essential materials to satisfy these needs
which, today, are energy-intensive products.

2018 Outlook For Energy: A View To 2040

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2019

OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY:

Energy is essential for society's progress

THE SIZE OF THE CIRCLES DEPICTS

~50% World Population

2015 Energy Demand per Capita (1000 BTU/person/day)

Energy trends vary by sector and geography

Global energy demand by sector Relative energy demand by region

Commercial Transportation United States

Transportation Demand Driven by Non-OECD

New Light Duty Vehicle Fuel Consumption

Global energy mix shifts to lower-carbon fuels

Liquids demand driven by transportation & chemicals

North Latin Africa Europe Russia/ Middle Asia

Liquids supply highlights regional diversity

'17 '25 '40

North Latin Africa Europe Russia/ Middle Asia

Global Natural Gas Demand and Supply

600 600 600

Industrial Middle East

Gas supply highlights regional diversity

'00 '17 '25 '40

Emissions vary with policy and technology assumptions

Global energy-related CO2 emissions

2019 Outlook for Energy

EMF27 full technology scenarios data downloaded from: https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/AR5DB

Assessed 2ºC scenarios: 2040 global energy mix

2040 global demand by energy type from assessed 2oC scenarios

Natural gas w/ CCS

EMF27 full technology scenarios data downloaded from: https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/AR5DB

Supply / demand gap warrant investment

New supply required Average demand Average demand

Decline without Decline without

Excludes biofuels; Source: IEA, EM analyses Source: IHS, EM analyses

Supply / demand gap warrant investment

New supply required Average demand Average demand

Decline without Decline without

Excludes biofuels; Source: IEA, EM analyses Source: IHS, EM analyses

Technology key to reducing societal costs of 2ºC pathway

2017 energy-related direct CO2 emissions by sector

Power grid reliability & long-duration storage:

Lower-carbon commercial transport: algae &

Non OECD Lower-carbon industrial processes: carbon capture,

Advanced, less carbon-intensive materials for

OECD Negative emissions: bioenergy with carbon capture,

Residential / Light-duty Commercial Industrial Power

Key takeaways from 2040 projections

Continued innovation will help OECD economies expand while

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