East Africa at Glance of Severe Food Insecurity: A Case of

Uganda Experiencing Armyworm Outbreak

Collins Otimgiu, Uganda

Abstract

Uganda is experiencing the army worm outbreak which not only poses severe food insecurity but
also nutrition and economic development challenges across the country. The outbreak was
spotted in form of caterpillars and confirmed across 20 districts of Uganda. Notwithstanding
other factors the outbreak is not only threatening the country with food insecurity but also can
lead to famine and hunger, malnutrition, disease outbreak, unemployment, and above all
retarding Uganda’s economic growth and development. The proposed study will assess the
impact of army worm outbreak on food security in Uganda. A desk-based approach will be used
to review the relevant data and information on the general impacts of army worm outbreak on
food security in Uganda. As far as ensuring a stable food security in Uganda, the prospected
study will highlight some remedial measures for example distribution of pesticides, farmer
education and sensitization and effective early warning systems to address the army worm
outbreaks in Uganda. Unless urgent and proactive actions are taken to avert the current and
future Fall Army worm outbreaks in the country, Uganda in particular and the Eastern African
region in general whose main economic activity is agriculture will likely to be hit by severe food
insecurity and its associated impacts.

Keywords: Food Security, Pest Control, Resiliency, Armyworm

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INTRODUCTION
Food insecurity is the state of being without reliable access to sufficient, affordable
and nutritious food (FAO, 2016). In September 2015, countries adopted a set of
goals to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure prosperity for all as part of a
new sustainable development agenda dubbed “the Sustainable Development
Goals” (SDGs) replacing the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) which
ended in 2015. The SDG2 addresses the issue of “ending hunger, achieve food
security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture” respectively
by 2030. Target 2.1 of SDG2 focuses specifically on access to food “…in
particular the poor and people in vulnerable situations, including infants, to safe,
nutritious and sufficient food all year round.”

Globally, more than 800 million people go hungry or without sufficient food
everyday (FAO, 2016). In Africa, food security and nutrition is at the heart of the
continent’s development agenda with greater commitment to ending hunger,
achieving food security and advancing optimal nutrition for all Africans (FAO,
Voices of the Hungry Project, 2016).

Specifically in sub-Saharan Africa, the African Union (AU)’s Agenda 2063

adopted in June 2014, with priorities defined in the 2014 Malabo Declaration on
“Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and
Improved Livelihoods” is committed to ending hunger by 2025. This agenda is
driving African countries to do business differently by engaging in multi-sectoral
processes and evidence-based decision making. Accordingly, African Heads of
State and Government pledged, among other goals, to end hunger by 2025,
focusing on the triple targets of increased production, reduced losses and waste and
improved nutrition.
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Though food production had increased slightly in sub-Saharan Africa for the last
30 years by 2012, it has remained stagnant for the last 5 years. Agricultural
productivity remains very low in the region, particularly for cereals at below 1500
kg per hectare. Considered potential food basket, recent trends show that sub
Saharan countries are increasingly becoming net food importers.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s food import has grown consistently faster than export and
reached a record high of around US$50 billion in 2008, representing a deficit of
about US$32 billion (FAO, 2016). The region has been relying on imports to fill
15 to 20 percent of cereal availability. The purpose of this paper is therefore to
assess the impact of army worm outbreaks on food security in Uganda, with a
critical prior view of the situation of food insecurity in East Africa.

METHODOLOGY

Desk-based approach will be used to review the relevant data and information. The
datasets used in this study were obtained from different official reports and studies
such as FAO reports, Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), Ministry of
Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, SDGs, African Union, and individual
scholars’ studies. Thematic analysis was used basing on triangulation tools and
content analysis.

RESULTS

East Africa
East Africa, which comprises of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, South Sudan, Burundi
and Rwanda, is frequently affected by food shortages and pockets of hunger due to
a complex mix of factors including unstable social and political environments,
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macroeconomic imbalances in trade, natural resource constraints, natural disasters,
poor food distribution network and inadequate food trade between the member
countries. These countries also experience high weather variability which has been
compounded by climate change and the absence of good governance (Omiti, et.al.,
2011). Ye, the region has a huge untapped potential to produce enough food for
themselves and surplus for trade (United Nations, 2010).

The 2015 FAO Global Information and Early Warning Report mention East
African countries with severe food insecurity as Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya and
South Sudan. In February 2017, the Government of Kenya declared the drought a
national disaster and made an appeal for national and international support. By July
2017, drought in Kenya has left 2.7 million people in need of humanitarian
assistance. In South Sudan, 4.6 million people are in urgent need of food. In East
Africa, the Disasters Emergency Committee estimates that 16 million people are in
need of humanitarian assistance across South Sudan, Kenya as well as
neighbouring Somalia and Ethiopia. Prolonged droughts, combined with ongoing
conflict, have left more than 16 million people hungry.

East Africa region has been faced with persistent and chronic food insecurity due
to several compounding factors. First there has been persistent slow or rather
inadequate growth of the agricultural sector. Secondly, most soils in the region are
infertile due to prolonged and intensive land use. Thirdly, the production systems
practiced in the region are highly dependent on rainfall (Omiti et al., 2011).
Fourthly, pests and diseases in both crop and livestock systems cause substantial
damage during production and storage processes. These constraints tend to
aggravate the risk adverse behaviour of farmers (Barrett et al., 2005).

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Population growth is a salient and critical factor that will have implications on food
availability; there are implications for national planning and socio-economic
development including food security. No effective policies are in place to cope
with the unprecedented pressure in the region. Natural resources especially land
and water are increasingly diminishing, implying that technology and innovation
will have a big role to play in ensuring that agricultural commodities are produced
at higher yield per unit of land, water, energy and time (Omiti, et.al., 2011).

In the region mired of constraints, East African countries are structurally finding it
difficult to escape from food insecurity given the inadequate food supply
conundrum resulting from a complex mix of factors including; unstable social and
political environments, macroeconomic imbalances in trade, natural resource
constraints, and natural disasters (e.g., drought, floods, pests such as locusts,
disease) and the absence of good governance (Pingali et al., 2015).

Uganda
The FAO puts the number of people in Uganda who are food insecure at
approximately 6.6 million. The 2015 FAO Global Information and Early Warning
Report lists Uganda among the 29 African countries with populations likely to
suffer hunger or lack of access to sufficient food. Dubbed the bread basket of East
Africa, poverty still limits people’s access to nutritious food, especially in the north
and east of the country (World Food Program, 2017). While the poverty rate
declined from 31 percent (2005/2006) to 19.7 percent (2012/2013), impetuous
population growth has meant that the absolute number of poor people has not
decreased.

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On average, Ugandans consume 400 kilocalories less than they need every day.
One in three school children have no food to eat during the school day. Inadequate
diets are at the roots of persisting nutritional problems which undermine the health,
growth and development of Ugandan children. Stunting affects more than one
quarter (27 percent) of children under 5, with rates climbing up to 40 percent in
northern Uganda. Anaemia rates stand at 58 percent at the national level, with
much higher peaks – up to 70 per cent – in poorer regions and in the refugee
population.

Although agriculture accounts for 25 percent of the country’s GDP and employs 77
percent of the adult population (MOFPED, 2016), productivity for smallholder
farmers remains low. Storage facilities are often inadequate to protect harvested
crops from pests, moisture and mould, which results in losses of up to 30 percent.

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Report
(2017), an estimated 10.9 million people in Uganda are experiencing an Acute
Food Insecurity situation, of which 1.6 million are in a crisis situation. The report
indicate that the number of people at risk of becoming food insecure may reach
11.4 million by end of 2017, of which 1.4 million may fall into Phase 3 (crisis
situation).

In addition, the analysis estimated that 26 percent of the total population in the
country is facing stressed food insecurity (IPC Phase 2). This population has
minimum adequate food consumption, employing insurance strategies and is
unable to afford some essential non food expenditures. All regions in the country
have a stressed population with East Central having the highest population (at 1.88

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million) followed by South Western (1.24 million), Teso (1.1 million) and West
Nile (1.04 million).

The low crop and livestock production negatively impacted household food stocks
leading to increased reliance on markets for food. Deteriorating water and pasture
conditions mainly in the “Cattle Corridor” have resulted in migrations of livestock
keepers, reduction in livestock production and increased spread of livestock
diseases. Increasing demand from external markets has also induced food price
increases, making it difficult for poor households to access food from the market.

Moreover, 5 percent of the total population in the country was found to be in Crisis
(IPC Phase 3). This population has widening food consumption gaps with
deteriorating dietary diversity and high malnutrition rates. They are found in
Central 1 (0.58 million), Karamoja (0.12 million), Teso (0.2 million), East Central
(0.38 million) and South Western (0.31 million) regions.

The affected population includes the poorest households with reduced food
consumption score, low meal frequencies of up to one meal a day and low dietary
diversity of less than three food groups. They have poor purchasing power as their
incomes are low and no food stocks at household level.

Worst of all, the prolonged dry spell due to the La Niña event coupled with
increasing incidences of crop and livestock pests and diseases such as Cassava
Brown Streak, Cassava Mosaic, Maize stalk borer, Striga and Banana Bacterial
Wilt considerably affected production reducing the availability and accessibility of
food for this population.

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In this paper, we are examining Armyworm outbreak in Uganda as a contributing
factor to food insecurity in Uganda in particular and East Africa in general.

Fall Armyworm Outbreak

As a result of the climate change and climate variability, Uganda is experiencing
outbreak of new pests and diseases such as the coffee twig borer, banana bacterial
wilt, cassava brown streak disease, tomato leaf miner, maize lethal necrosis and
now the Fall Armyworm. This will negatively impact the nation’s food and
nutrition security and wealth creation efforts. The population is urged to be on the
lookout and report any new pest or disease to the nearest Agricultural Officer.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF) and her
agencies (NARO, UCDA, CDO, and NAADS) are working tirelessly to develop
effective control methods and these are being availed to farmers. In the second
season of 2016, MAAIF received reports of a severe outbreak of Fall Armyworm
“caterpillars” on maize plants in the districts of Kasese in western Uganda,
Kayunga in the central region and Bukedea in the eastern region.

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A reconnaissance visit made to these districts found that almost 40% of the maize
crops in the fields visited were attacked by an unknown pest. The National
Agricultural Research Organization (NARO) has confirmed identity the pest
as a moth commonly known as the fall army worm (Spodoptera frugiperda) using
DNA sequencing.

The Fall Army Worm is native to tropical and subtropical regions of the Americas.
How it arrived in Africa is not clear. There is suspicion, however, that the pest
could have been introduced as a result of increased in trade (imports) of
Agricultural commodities across continents and the pest’s migratory nature of
2000km per annum could have facilitated its entry into Uganda.

First observed in Nigeria in January 2016, the pest is now reported in several other
countries including Togo, Ghana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Malawi,
Mozambique, Namibia and Kenya. The pest is known to feed on more than
80 plant species, including cereals (maize, millet, sorghum, sugarcane, rice and
wheat), legumes (cowpea, groundnuts and soybean), cotton and many pasture
grasses (Rhodes grass, Kikuyu grass, Lucerne and other pasture grasses) that are
the source of cattle feed in the country.

The destructive stage of the pest is the caterpillar. It can be identified by its
inverted Y mark on the front of the head and four large spots towards the end of
the abdomen. The caterpillar feeds aggressively on most parts of the plant
including the leaves, stems, maize cobs and tassels except the roots.

The symptoms of damage include leaf perforation, defoliation, perforated cobs and
damaged grains. This feeding damage results in a reduction in both yield and grain
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quality. The adult moths move in large swarms at night with each female laying up
to 2000 eggs and the emerging caterpillars are aggressive feeders with the potential
to destroy a hectare within 72 hours in its later stages. The fall army worm is
particularly hard to control, as the moths are strong flyers, capable of covering
2000 km per year.

Status of the Fall Army Worm in Uganda

The pest was first detected in the three districts of Kayunga, Kasese and Bukedea
between May and July 2016. To date, the pest has been confirmed in over twenty
(54) districts including; Kibaale, Kamwenge, Masindi, Nwoya, Mayuge, Kyenjojo,
Mukono, Kamuli, Luwero, Rakai, Buliisa, Kabarole, Kumi, Serere Kibaale,
Kiryandongo, Luuka, Bugiri and Iganga and continues to spread to other districts
at a very high rate.

The Ministry of Agriculture and NARO have so far confirmed damages on maize
sorgum, rice, Kikuyu grass, Napia grass and sugarcane crops. As an emergency
intervention, MAAIF is advising farmers to use a pesticide combination of
Lambda-cyhalothrin (106g/l) and Thiamethoxam (141g/l) (STRIKER 247 SC
or ENGEO K 247 SC) and Rocket at a rate of 20-30mls in 15 – 20 litres of water
as we explore more sustainable management measures

Information, Education and Communication materials (IEC materials) on

identification and management of the pest have been developed and shared with all
the 116 Districts.

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Impact of the Fall Armyworm

While we are yet to establish the impact figures of the pest in Uganda, Zambia
estimated a loss of 130,000 hectares of maize to the pest in one season. Zambia
spent US$3,000,000 in an attempt to control the pest and Kenya has now set aside
US$1,000,000 for anticipated control of the pest.

Uganda produces close to four million metric tons of maize grain annually making
it the third highest crop produced. Maize contributes to the livelihoods of over 3.6
million households (UBOS2014). Based on the estimated yield loss of 15%-75%
elsewhere, the presence of the FAW in Uganda could translate to an annual loss of
at least 450,000 metric tonnes of maize that is equivalent to US$192,857,000.

The figures that we have are only reflective of maize however the pest affects more
crops mentioned earlier thereby heightening the potential loss to the economy. The
Government of Uganda has set aside UGX 4.5 billion which is now being used to
control this pest.

INTERVENTIONS

i. Constitution of a Taskforce

A task force with representation from the MAAIF, NARO, Private Sector, Uganda
National Farmers’ Federation, OWC and Office of the Prime Minister has been
constituted to develop action plans for effective management of the fall armyworm
both in the short and long term.

A Technical committee comprising of NARO and MAAIF is in place to guide on

implementation of pest outbreak management
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An Advisory committee is going to be constituted to help in advocacy and
lobbying for financial support

ii. Communication

In order to achieve consistency in messaging, we recommend that the designated

spokespersons are the Permanent Secretary and Minister in MAAIF and Director
General, NARO together with authorized Public Relations Officers from either one
or both entities

A strategic Communications plan that includes a robust stakeholder engagement

plan and budget has been developed.

Control measures were launched in Mukono District in 2017 and now the district
by district has started.

iii. Research

NARO has identified the pest as a moth known as Fall Armyworm (Spodoptera
frugiperda) using DNA sequencing

NARO observed in its confined field trial that BT maize is tolerant to the pest. This
confirms similar observations under studies conducted in the USA and Brazil.

NARO is monitoring, collecting and identifying any outbreak of the pest in new
areas. NARO is currently conducting studies on biology and ecology with the aim
of understanding the pest under our local conditions, and identifying potential
natural enemies for biological control.

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iv. Emergency Response

a. Procurement

MAAIF has procured some emergency pesticides (Lambda-cyhalothrin (106g/l)

and Thiamethoxam (141g/l) about 2,500 which is known to have worked
successfully elsewhere in the control of FAW.

MAAIF has also procured some light and pheromone traps for pest surveillance.

MAAIF has also procured some motorized pumps and all other related items.

b. Capacity Building

MAAIF in partnership with District Local Governments are creating awareness

and sensitization about the pest.

MAAIF in partnership with District Local Governments will conduct training of

farmers on safe use of agro-chemicals in management of the pest.

c. Implementation of Emergency Control measures

MAAIF in partnership with District Local Governments is mobilizing communities

to carry out the agreed control measures.

Feedback from district agriculture staff and farmers on the efficacy of the supplied
pesticides on the pest is being provided.

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CONCLUSIONS
While the agricultural sector continues to be increasingly affected by adverse
events such as Fall Armyworm, the financial risk management tools in place are
still insufficient to protect farmers from shocks, as well as hedging the Government
from its contingent liabilities resulting from the cost of financing emergency
response and rehabilitation.

The lack of small-farmers’ insurance against plant and animal diseases and pest
outbreaks and other protection mechanisms as well as the low coverage of safety
nets, compels the Government to intervene as insurer of last resort to preclude the
collapse of agricultural production in face of plant and animal diseases and pest
outbreaks.

Uganda’s agriculture sector would benefit from the design of a risk management
framework on pests control that lays out the policy instruments that are most
adequate in the country and sector context. As part of a comprehensive agricultural
risk management strategy, farmers need access to crop insurance and other risk
management tools that can protect them from crop failures due to Farm
Armyworm as well as from price volatility during surplus production years.

While the volatility of agriculture and its vulnerability to shocks have been high in
recent years, risk management policies continue to be reactive, and focused on
emergency response, rather than on prevention and mitigation. This reactive
approach generates uncertainty for the affected farmers, and results in delays in the
delivery of aid and rehabilitation interventions, as well as not being conducive to
effective targeting of public expenditure.

Agricultural sector risks (e.g. weather-related, plant and animal diseases and pest
outbreaks) need to be managed strategically, via an integrated framework.

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Effective management of agricultural risks requires the embracing of new
technologies by farmers, which will require a substantial improvement in the
provision of agricultural advisory services.

RECOMMENDATIONS

The Government should implement the reforms and investments that encourage
greater resilience in face of climate, plant and animal diseases and pest outbreaks
risks. This would reduce the country’s vulnerabilities to plant and animal diseases
and pest outbreaks and shocks, which negatively impact farmers and consumers,
and trigger episodes of food insecurity. The institutional framework on food
security, requires clarity of focus on policy objectives, and substantially improved
coordination. There is a need to undergo a paradigm shift from response to
preparedness.

Policy instruments aimed at helping farmers cope with weather-related risks should
be developed or updated to reflect evolving sector needs. Several investment-type
subsidies have been developed and tested in other countries aimed to encourage
adoption of on-farm risk management practices, such as grants for purchase of
irrigation equipment, and protected-field crop production.

In addition, a social assistance program – properly integrated into the country’s

social policy framework – would allow for better targeting and a more efficient
delivery of public support in times of crisis situations such as plant and animal
diseases and pest outbreaks.

Collecting good meteorological information is not enough, weather & climate

information should be translated into useful products with actionable
recommendations, customized to specific target audiences and agro-ecological

15
regions. Critical meteorological information should be made readily available to all
stakeholders as a public good.

There is a critical need to develop and adopt a comprehensive food insecurity

reduction strategy in view of the recurrence of this type of plant and animal
diseases and pest outbreaks, exacerbated by environmental degradation and
extreme weather events. Food insecurity hits hardest the poorest segments of
Uganda’s population, and within this socioeconomic group, children, the elderly,
and women of reproductive age are the most vulnerable to the long-term impacts of
malnutrition.

The 2016 AfDB’s Strategy for Agricultural Transformation in Africa report

identified large-scale dissemination of productivity-increasing technology and
inputs, plus input intensity and capital intensity as a key requirement for achieving
successful business-led transformation of agriculture. The adoption of improved
farming techniques and practices, use of climate-resistant seed / breed varieties;
along with access to affordable agricultural credit and risk transfer instruments,
will increase productivity and output.

New agricultural production technologies are being tested and promoted by

research institutions around the world as key for increasing agricultural
productivity and successfully addressing food insecurity issues concerning plant
and animal diseases and pest outbreaks. Improved plant varieties, such as drought
resistant crops, and input optimization technologies should help farmers improve
yields while reducing waste and environmental impact.

Farmers need training in practically all aspects of farm management. Changing

climate and weather conditions have adversely impacted farmers’ ability to predict
when to sow their crop seeds. Farmlands are becoming less and less productive due

16
to soil degradation, exacerbated by recurrent dry spells and drought episodes in
some regions, while others are experiencing damaging extreme rainfall episodes
before the harvest, that also intensify soil erosion.

Training should be provided in the adoption of agricultural best practices and new
technologies should be introduced regarding plant and animal diseases and pest
outbreaks; access to quality inputs (including seed, and on the efficient and safe
use of fertilizers and pesticides), and also technology to increase their productivity
in a sustainable way; is also needed.

Farmers who can get the tools to maximize the use of their lands and control of
plant and animal diseases and pest outbreaks should be better prepared to raise
their own living standards as well as reduce their households’ risk of falling into a
situation of food insecurity.

It should also be recognized that achieving such goal will require strong
collaboration among government institutions, civil society organizations, and
academia and private investors to identify the best interventions in the short,
medium and long-term horizons. The government should therefore play an
essential role in developing the enabling environment for fostering private-sector
participation not only in the agricultural transformation but also in plant and
animal diseases and pest outbreaks control.

Investments in critical infrastructure should be improved. The agricultural sector

needs to be modernized in almost every aspect of the food production chain.
Adequate infrastructure is needed for transportation, distribution, and energy
distribution, all of which support the control of plant and animal diseases and pest
outbreaks.

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Government investment in increasing the land area under irrigation is key for
achieving the levels of productivity that will make the agricultural transformation
possible. Irrigation addresses the second most important constraint to high-yield
agriculture, water; second only to soil quality. The agricultural sector is in urgent
need of a major transformation to bring marginal productivity to substantially
higher levels and boost its GDP contribution as to lift millions of citizens out of
poverty.

The multi-dimensional nature of food security requires effective coordination,

collaboration, and coherence among multiple economic and social sectors, as well
as the engagement of key non-government stakeholders, at all levels of
administration, from the national to the community level. Due to the complex
nature of plant and animal diseases and pest outbreaks, effective coordination is
critical for achieving policy targets especially in the area of plant and animal
diseases and pest outbreaks.

Adoption of key concepts of the Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) framework as

part of the agricultural sector investment planning processes could substantially
increase agricultural productivity, while promoting the protection of the natural
environment and ecosystem services needed to ensure the sustainability of
agricultural output.

The proposed Uganda Climate Smart Agriculture Programme 2015-2025, jointly

implemented by the MAAIF and Ministry of Water and Environment, shall be
adopted and implemented to accelerate agricultural transformation through plant
and animal diseases and pest outbreaks without creating new, potentially
irreversible environmental and social challenges. The CSA Program’s Result
Areas, (i.e. (i) building resilience and associated mitigation in plant and animal
diseases and pest outbreaks; (ii) research for development and innovations in plant
18
and animal diseases and pest outbreaks; (iv) improving and sustaining agricultural
advisory services; and (vi) improved institutional coordination), directly address
key challenges and risks related to plant and animal diseases and pest outbreaks.

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