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A dice game
[Year 2019 – 2020]
(1) A player bets on the sum 15. What are the chances of winning?
(2) On which sum should he bet, to have the highest chance of winning?
(3) On average, how many times the four dice must be thrown until one gets the most
probable sum?
(4) Consider the questions (1)-(3) in the case of four regular hexagonal dice.
(5) A number of n differently coloured dice, each dice being a regular polyhedron with k
faces, are thrown simultaneously. What are the chances that the sum S appears?
(Check whether you obtain (1) and (41) as particular cases)
THE SOLUTION
We have to calculate :
p1
W
p2 , where p1 is the number of possibilities to obtain sum 15 with 4 dice
and
p2 is the total number of possibilities.
Obviously, each dice shows every digit from 1 to 6. So, it’s easy to say that
p2 64 1296
In the following, we have to compute in how many ways we can obtain sum 15.
a b c d 15
Using the Sticks and Stones (also named Stars and Bars) method, we find that there
14
364
are 3 ways to have a group of 4 positive integers (a,b,c,d), such that a b c d 15 .
Now, we must substract the cases where at least one of a,b,c,d are greater than or equal
to 7. Without losing the generality, we assume that a max(a, b, c, d ) .
7
if a 7 , there are 2 ways
6
if a 8 , there are 2 ways
5
if a 9 , there are 2 ways
4
if a 10 , there are 2 ways
3
if a 11 , there are 2 ways
2
1
if a 12 , there is 2 way
if a 13 min(b, c, d ) 0 , which is clearly false.
Summing these values and multiplying them by 4 (to account for each of the 4 variables
7 6 5 4 3 2
4
2 2 2 2 2 2
being greater than or equal to 7), there are cases that are
14
364
included in 3 , but are not possible (because a, b, c, d 1 ). We also observe that there
cannot be two numbers from a,b,c,d (a,b for example) , such that a, b 7 , due to the fact
a b c d 15
that a, b, c, d 1
So,
14 7 6 5 4 3 2
p1 4 364 4 21 15 10 6 3 1 364 4 56 364 224 140
3 2 2 2 2 2 2
p 140 35
W 1
The chances of winning, if a player bets on sum 15 are p2 1296 324 .
Method 2.
Due to the fact that 6 1296 is a very small number (for the computer), we can take all
4
the possibilities and count the ones that added up give 15.
With a precision of 5 decimals, we can see that, the exact answer is 0.10802 .