Task 1 – Pre knowledge

Manuela Castro Diaz

COD: 1003966456

Tutor
Nury Yasmin Moreno

Theory of Decisions
Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia
School of Basic Sciences, Technology and Engineering
Industrial Engineering
2020
 EXERCISE 1 PROBABILITIES OF A GIVEN EVENT

Suppose you have three dice which are not altered, this assumes fair play and the odds of any one of
their heads coming out are equal. When rolling the three dice, you must determine that:

1. Exit number 6 on all dice.

2. The sum of the three dice adds up to 7.

Solution

1. Exit number 6 on all dice

There is only one way to get six in all (6,6,6)and if we consider that there is
6^3=216 different ways three dice can roll, then:

𝑃(6_1∩6_2∩6_3 )=1/216

2. The sum of the three dice adds up to 7.

Here are the ways the dice can fall, where the sum of the points is seven:

1 1 5
1 2 4
1 3 3
1 4 2
1 5 1
2 1 4
2 2 3
2 3 2
2 4 1
3 1 3
3 2 2
3 3 1
4 1 2
4 2 1
5 1 1

And with this list, we realize that there are 15 different ways for the sum to be 7,
then the sought probability is:
𝑃(𝑠=7)=15/216=5/72
 Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations.

a. Request the system of equations for equalization to 0 and 1.

b. Graph the equations on the Cartesian plane.
c. Find the solution of the system of equations.

Using the algebraic graphical method, determine the cut-off point and solution that satisfies the following systems of equation

1. Y = -3X + 5
2. Y = 3X + 2

Solution

a. Request the system of equations for equalization to 0 and 1.

𝑦=−3𝑥+5
x y 𝑦=−3𝑥+5 𝑦=−3(1)+5
0 5 𝑦=−3(0)+5 𝑦=−3+5
1 2 𝑦=5 𝑦=2

𝑦=3𝑥+2
x y 𝑦=3𝑥+2 𝑦=3(1)+2
0 2 𝑦=3(0)+2 𝑦=3+2
1 5 𝑦=2 𝑦=5

b. Graph the equations on the Cartesian plane.

c. Find the solution of the system of equations.

𝑦=−3𝑥+5 we replace the value of x in the first equation

 𝑦=3𝑥+2
𝑦=−3(0.5)+5
−3𝑥+5=3𝑥+2 𝑦=−1.5+5
−3𝑥−3𝑥=2−5 𝑦=3.5
−6𝑥=−3
𝑥=(−3)/(−6)

𝑥=0.5
ollowing systems of equations:
 Exercise 3. Operations with matrices.

a. Solve according to the matrix solution methods in Exercise 3.1.

b. Solve the matrix solution methods in Exercise 3.2.

The Markov chains use probabilities of previous states, from there that the matrix multiplication is
very important to solve this type of problems. Given the following matrices of size (n * m) or (m * m)
solve the product of them.

Exercise 3.1
𝐵=■8(0.3&0.4&0.3@0.5&0.3&0.2@0.3&0.3&0.4)
1. 𝐴=[0.1 0.3 0.6]

0.1*0.3 0.3*0.5 0.6*0.3

0.1*0.4 0.3*0.3 0.6*0.2
0.1*0.3 0.3*0.2 0.6*0.4

0.03 + 0.15 + 0.18 = 0.36

0.04 + 0.09 + 0.18 = 0.31
0.03 + 0.06 + 0.24 = 0.33

𝐴∗𝐵=[0.36 0.31 0.33]

Exercise 3.2

2. 𝐴= 𝐵=■8(0.3&0.5&0.2@0.1&0.3&0.6@0.2&0.3&0.5)
■8(0.5&0.3&0.2@0.1
&0.4&0.5@0.4&0.3&0.
3)

0.15 + 0.03 + 0.04 = 0.22

0.25 + 0.09 + 0.06 = 0.40
0.10 + 0.18 + 0.10 = 0.38

0.03 + 0.04 + 0.10 = 0.17

0.05 + 0.12 + 0.15 = 0.32
0.02 + 0.24 + 0.25 = 0.51

0.12 + 0.03 + 0.06 = 0.21

0.20 + 0.09 + 0.09 = 0.38
0.08 + 0.18 + 0.15 = 0.41

𝐴∗𝐵=■8(0.22&0.40&0.38@0.
17&0.32&0.51@0.21&0.38&0.
41)
 Bibliography

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 347-378), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixt
axmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition of the Unit 1.