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THE PHILIPPINES
Gloria inExcelsis
Paul A. Rodell
Philippine political life always holds the potential for theatre and volatility, but
going into 2001 no one could have predicted the momentous events that
would soon rock the nation. By year's end, the Philippines had seen more
drama than most other countries witness in a decade.
In January, President Joseph Ejercito Estrada, who is often referred to by
a
his nickname "Erap", was overthrown by massive uprising that quickly became
known as "People Power 2", named after the first People Power revolution that
difficulties and charges of military corruption and collusion with the kidnappers.
hopeful signs of better times ahead. In addition, the Supreme Court rendered
a important decision in the Marcos era cocofund levy case. WTiile
potentially
the final settlement of this case probably lies in the distant future, lesson to be
drawn from the mixing of politics and business in the Philippines should not
be overlooked.
Through all the political, judicial, economic, ethnic, and military problems,
President Macapagal-Arroyo has stood like an island of stability and maturity.
She has done especially well in foreign affairs even while her domestic agenda
proceeds in fits and starts, and the economy barely holds steady. Her ruling
coalition has held together, the military is loyal, and her approval rating remains
Ousting Erap
In October 2000, Luis "Chavit" llocos Sur's governor, and scion of
Singson,
that province's powerful political family, broke from his crony and political
ally, Philippine President Joseph Estrada. Singson's break soon took on more
seriousness than a simple political parting of the ways when he declared that
Estrada headed a national gambling syndicate and skimmed a percentage of
the profits from jueteng, a low-tech numbers game played mostly by the rural
poor.
As an acknowledged co-conspirator, Singson's testimony gained
instantaneous credibility and before long, additional revelations emerged
alleging that the President siphoned off tax revenues from the tobacco
industry, manipulated the stock market for friends, and was connected to
soon Filipinos were riveted to their television and radio sets as witnesses detailed
the process of collecting and delivering pay-offs and even how Estrada signed
the name Jose Velarde on bank records for his false accounts into which the
monies were deposited. Even as the legislators debated points of evidence and
cross-examined witnesses, an "Erap Resign" movement soon
spread throughout
the metropolitan area and to a number of provinces. Prominent in the
demonstrations wereformer presidents Coraz?n Aquino and Fidel V. Ramos,
along with outspoken Manila Archbishop Cardinal Jaime Sin. Despite the
defection of dozens of lawmakers from Estrada's party, and the resignations of
his trade secretary, five senior economic advisers, and Vice-President Gloria
from her Cabinet of secretary of social welfare, an
Macapagal-Arroyo position
informal tally showed supporters in the Senate were in the
that the President's
majority, making impeachment unlikely. The only hope was the possibility that
one or more of the Estrada senators might bolt to the
opposition.
Theproverbial straw that broke the camel's back, came on 16 January
2001 when the senators voted on whether or not to open an envelope alleged
to contain key bank account documents. An earlier envelope had already
produced damning evidence about the Velarde account and it was believed
that the second would definitively prove Estrada's guilt. The debate before the
vote was particularly acrimonious and when the hands were shown all hopes
that one or more of the President's supporters might cross the political divide
were dashed. The vote was a close 11 to 10. This bitter defeat for the
resignation movement was already well established and necessary alliances and
logistics were already in place. As well, Filipinos take pride in the original
so there was
People Power revolt of 1986 that ousted the Marcos government;
a feeling that going back to the barricades was something that could be done
was even a patriotic duty. But by 2001, the modern media,
successfully, and
and especially contemporary communication an
technology, played
role. Unlike the Marcos years when the media was tightly
unprecedented
controlled, during Estrada's presidency the country's television networks and
its newspapers were free, and the population was already fully informed and
had already considered the evidence against their President. Additionally, the
craze contributed
nation's cell phone textmessaging directly to the mobilization
effort.4 Friends quickly and inexpensively sent textmessages to each other and
some
kept the spirit of resistance going through anti-Erap jokes, quite lewd,
and the co-ordination of many thousands of people was greatly simplified. To
a surprising degree,, this was a cell phone text message revolution.
This time Filipinos did not wait
for the Archbishop to call them to the
streets as he had done against Marcos. One hour after the trial broke down,
student protesters gathered noisily on Katipunan Road in front of the Jesuit
university the Ateneo de Manila, a short distance from the main campus of the
University of the Philippines. Then they marched to the EDSA shrine, a giant
statue dedicated to Our Lady Queen of Peace and erected in honour of the
1986 anti-Marcos movement. When they arrived, the area around the shrine
was already filled with protesters from all over Metro Manila. Cardinal Sin
arrived to say mass and address the crowd. This time itwas the
at midnight
Cardinal responding to the people, not they responding to him.
Former President Ramos returned from an overseas trip and marched
from the airport to the demonstration, picking up supporters along the way.
The protesters were also getting support from many other quarters. Businessmen
from the nearby suburban financial issued an especially
district of Makati
country from the Batanes islands in the north, to Zamboanga City on the tip
of Mindanao in the south.5 Soon, the area around the shrine was filled with
Especially poignant were the defections of Cavite governor Ramon Revilla, Jr.,
Estrada's godson, and movie star and former girlfriend Nora Aunor who
described how Estrada beat her "like a punching bag".
Many observers soon noted that the crowd at the EDSA shrine behaved
much differently from that which came out to oppose the government in
1986. Even in his last days, Marcos was still feared and there was no assurance
that the small military mutiny the protesters came out to protect would spread.
In 1986, the possibility of violence was very real as soldiers and tanks approached
the city's masses huddled on the EDSA highway. But there was no evidence of
fear among the anti-Estrada rally participants. Instead, the atmosphere was
as the crowd welcomed a
jubilant parade of celebrities and enjoyed a near
continuous concert delivered by some of the country's leading entertainers.
This was a political rally where the youth played a key role both in supplying
numbers and taking initiative. It was as though a new generation was laying its
claim to political participation.
But the story behind the story was the role played by Armed Forces
chief of staff General Angelo Reyes who met with his most trusted officers
on 18 January to evaluate the condition of the military and the possibility
of violence. By the following morning he had decided that he must pre
empt some adventurous officers from moving against the crowd. To do so,
he would have to defect to the opposition and take the entire Armed
Forces high command with him. General Reyes notified Macapagal-Arroyo
of his plan, and then called Estrada and asked him to resign for the good
of the country. Not receiving a satisfactory response from Estrada, Reyes
spent the remainder of the day lining up the support of the commanding
officers branch of the military. At 4 p.m., he and six of his fellow
of each
during the martial law regime were still enjoying their plunder. In fact, Estrada
and many of his closest advisers and active supporters had been associated
with Marcos. Raul V. Fabella, dean of the University of the Philippines School
of Economics, strongly counselled "retribution" as essential for the future health
of the economy and fundamental Philippine democratic institutions. The
commentators further asked whether Filipinos will squander their current
as
did in 1986, or if will cleanse the political
opportunity they they finally
system so that another Estrada does not emerge. Mounting one future People
Power movement after another cannot be a viable solution for bad government
because the economy and the social fabric of the nation cannot be expected
to sustain the
pressure.8
society. Perhaps without realizing it, Estrada laid the groundwork for his
initial legal defence when he refusedto formally resign the
presidency,
claiming that he was still the lawful President. Furthermore, he was still
against the former head of state. On 25 April, Estrada was arrested at his home
in San Juan, Metro Manila, despite the efforts of thousands of Manila's poor
who surrounded the house to protect their hero. The a special
Sandiganbayan,
anti-graft court, charged Estrada with "plunder" to the amount of 4 billion
pesos. The charge does not allow bail and carries a maximum
penalty of
death. After arriving at Camp Crame, the bedraggled-looking former President
was with a name and number plate on his chest in the manner
photographed
of a common criminal.9 The release of this photograph to the media by
unknown policemen acting against explicit orders sparked an instantaneous
reaction among his millions
of supporters in Manila's slums.
Once again, the EDSA shrine became the scene of a huge political throng,
this one in favour of the jailed former President, and, by many accounts,
larger than the assembly that ousted him from power just months earlier.
While the sincerity of the vast majority of the pro-Erap crowd could not be
rumours soon circulated that
doubted, prominent political allies of the former
President were intent on using "EDSA 3"10 to overthrow the Macapagal-Arroyo
government and return Estradato power. Also as possible co
implicated
conspirators were the indigenous church, the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC), and
Mike Velarde, leader of a charismatic Roman Catholic movement known as El
Shaddai. Meanwhile, there were reports that some former Estrada
administration officials were co-ordinating logistics such as
feeding the
demonstrators and paying recruits from slum areas. The crowd reached a peak
of a reported 270,000 on 26 April, but declined to about 100,000 two
days later
only to return to its earlier numbers as 1 May approached when a march on
responded. At 2 a.m. on 1 May, a long line of marchers broke away from the
shrine area and headed for the palace downtown where supporters of the
President attempted to call out their numbers to protect the government.
Police and government forces completely failed in their less than rigorous
efforts to stop the marchers, and by the first rays of the new day the true size
of the massive crowd that reached the palace became clear. Presidential
supporters sought safety in a nearby college campus and anti-riot police were
overwhelmed. It was only in the final approach to the palace that police,
marines, and members of the Presidential Security Group were able to turn
back the enraged mob with tear gas and water cannons. Commercial and
around the Mendiola near the palace suffered heavy
public property Bridge
and many people were injured, but six deaths were
damage thankfully only
reported.13
personal anger of its participants and did not have the support of a broad
social coalition representing a variety of civil organizations and political parties,
trade unions, business groups, the vocal Left, or the dominant Roman Catholic
Church. Above all, and despite numerous rumours, the military remained
May Elections
No sooner had the debris of the 1 May revolt been cleared than the country
lurched towards non-presidential "off-year" elections on 14 May. Although there
were over 15,000 electoral seats at stake at all levels of government, the greatest
attention was reserved for the critical race for control of the Senate. The two
were the administration's party, the People's
major opposing political machines
Power Coalition (PPC), which fielded a full slate of thirteen senatorial hopefuls,
while eleven Estrada loyalists and others grouped themselves under the banner
of the Puwersa ng Masa (Force of the Masses) (PnM). Two other political
parties had a few more candidates in the contest, and there were seven
independents, the strongest among them being the well-known and respected
news commentator Noli De Castro who was also "adopted" by the PnM.
The PPC lobbied hard for a 13-0 sweep to send a clear signal rejecting
Estrada and his political allies. Initially, the PPC seemed to have good reason
to hope for success. After all, their President proved her resolve in the crucial
hours of EDSA 3, and then vigorously pursued the alleged masterminds behind
it. Clearly, this President would not allow one coup after another to weaken
her government as had happened to Coraz?n administration.
Aquino's
Meanwhile, the revelations about Estrada's presidency, the disastrous senatorial
vote on the second and the implication of having been behind the
envelope,
failed 1May riot, all seemed to destroy the credibility of the PnM candidates.
Yet, opinion polls from before and after 1 May consistently showed that only
entirely successful, and in the first party-list election in 1998 only fourteen
sectoral representatives gained the required 2 per cent of the vote.
As early as April, it became apparent that the Commission on Elections
had caved in to powerful vested interests such as the Philippine Medical
Association and the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry who sought
entry into the party-list system in an attempt to elect their own candidates to
the House. Worse still, Estrada's son JV Ejercito and some from
personalities
the deposed administration, including former Flagship Projects Secretary Robert
Aventajado, former Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno, and former Legislative
Liaison Officer Jimmy Policarpio, attempted to sneak into Congress using the
party-list system. Suspect party-list organizations approved by the Commission
included a group whose acronym spelled out JEEP (a propaganda vehicle
from Estrada's 1998 presidential campaign) and another group called the
"True Marcos Loyalists". Even political parties that had fallen on hard times
and were no longer national power-wielders such as the Liberal and Nacionalista
parties had their candidates approved for the election. These individuals and
groups were far from the labour, peasantry, urban poor, indigenous cultural
communities, fisherfolk, youth, women, overseas workers, elderly, handicapped,
veterans, and professional by the Constitution as
people designated eligible to
enter their representatives in the party-list system.16
As the vote count emerged, itwas clear that the election held few surprises
at the local level as most dominant provincial families continued to hold sway
over their local bailiwicks, and with very few new names
Congress emerged
and faces. On the other hand, the anticipated drama of the senatorial contest
lived up to expectations. As the PPC hoped, Estrada's downfall did affect some
of his allies, and before long itbecame apparent that Miriam Defensor-Santiago
and Juan Ponce Enrile would fail in their re-election bids. But, the voters did
not reject the PnM to the degree that administration candidates
hoped. Estrada's
wife, Loi Ejercito, ran as one of the PnM eleven and she received a
surprisingly
high sympathy vote that soon placed her among the winners. Some of her
party-mates such as Edgardo Angara and Panfilo Lacson did well. It seems that
many Estrada candidates still had voter appeal, especially among the poor who
took their anger out against the administration senatorial bets. Thus, the
political and class polarization evident in EDSA 3 promised to continue through
the PnM senators.
In the end, the 2001 election saw
relatively little violence although there
were the usual of fraudulent vote counts and other irregularities,
charges
including one vote tampering operation captured on videotape. When the
vote count was finished, the early poll predictions by neutral polling
organizations such as the Social Weather Station of an 8-4-1 outcome were
realized as four PnM candidates ? Lacson, and
Angara, Ejercito-Estrada,
? senate seats. were
Honasan, gained They joined by independent candidate
Noli De Castro who emerged as the top vote-getter. Although the PPC did not
get the 13-0 outcome itwanted, the administration still had a slight majority
in the Senate and it easily controlled the House of Representatives. In an
attempt to reach out to opposition supporters, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo also
promised to embark on missions to Metro Manila slums and
"healing"
Mindanao's Christian communities, constituencies that had voted heavily in
favour of PnM candidates.17 The Senate chose close administration ally, Franklin
Drillon, as its leader while the House elected as its Speaker,
overwhelmingly
Jose de Venecia, Jr., who iswell known for his ability to negotiate compromises
and achieve legislative success. Once control of both houses was assured and
with all of her people in position in the executive branch, the President went
before the public in her first State of the Nation address in which she outlined
an ambitious programme for economic recovery and social development.18
In the meantime, the controversy over the party-list system and its abuse
continued, and grew even more intense. On 26 June, the Supreme Court
ordered the Commission on Elections to cease
proclaiming party-list winners
and review the qualifications of those running for office under this method.
Eventually, some elected candidates were denied seats and only a few winners
were declared because the vote count had been so debased
by interlopers that
only a handful of legitimate candidates garnered the required 2 per cent of
the total vote count.19
against the other seem more than a bit exaggerated, the game being played
Filipino businessman and restaurant owner of the same name.20 The case soon
unravelled and in September the hearings went into a temporary state of
limbo while the government reviewed its case for another assault on Lacson.
Meanwhile, the opposition was not silent. The President and her husband
became the target of various allegations of corruption and abuse of power and
influence. The integrity of the accusers was often questionable, and by the end
of the year, the President seems to have refuted all to her integrity
challenges
and that of her husband.
Whilemany of the charges and the individuals making them give Philippine
politics the appearance of comic opera, the seriousness of the game was
brought
home shortly before the end of the year amid fresh rumours of coup plots.
Since Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo came into power, rumours of coup
possible
plots involving members of the martial law era Reform the Armed Forces
Movement (RAM), the Young Officers' Union (YOU), or agents connected to
Lacson from his days as PNP chief have been heard but always discounted. But
the danger seemed to become much too real on 28 December when military
agents seized nine members of a commando group and 100 blocks of C-4
plastic explosives. All the men were associated with Lacson from his PNP
command. Three on New Year's Eve, Baron Alexander a
days later Cervantes,
self-appointed spokesperson for YOU and agent for National Security Adviser
Roilo Golez who had reported a destabilization conspiracy, was shot once,
execution-style, at the back of the head, while he was waiting outside a drugstore
for an appointment.21
Investigation agents arrested Estrada confidant and alleged crime boss Charlie
"Atong" Ang in a Las Vegas casino, and his fate is currently being decided in
U.S. courts. Also being sought in the United States for extradition to the
were:
Yolanda Ricaforte, Estrada's alleged auditor for protection
Philippines
money, and former PAOCTF agents Cesar Mancao and Michael Ray Aquino.
At the same time, Dante Tan, who is blamed for a stock market scam involving
the BW Resources company, fled to New Zealand and efforts were made for
a special extradition request. In the meantime, the nation's Supreme Court
defeated a challenge by Estrada's legal team concerning the validity of the laws
he is charged with violating.22
The trial finally began in October, but quickly fell into disarray as
questions about his neutrality and conduct could be resolved. In both cases,
the justices were replaced by other jurists, but with these changes in personnel,
the trial had to be postponed until January 2002 and questions were already
raised about whether the cases should to new justices
being again be passed
to pre-empt legal challenges by Estrada's lawyers.23
Though originally created to clear the docket of
Philippine
judiciary's
numerous cases officials, the
involving wrongdoing by government
Sandiganbayan has a of worse than the courts itwas
acquired reputation being
intended to supplement. Hopefully, the Supreme Court's late 2001 actions will
break the Sandiganbayan's logjam and restore public confidence in this branch
of the legal system.
stake in the corporation to Japan's Kirin Brewer. On the same day, the Supreme
Court finally ruled that a 27 per cent stake in the company that had been
lay in a series of presidential decrees issued by Marcos from 1973 to 1980 that
taxed the nation's coconut farmers billions of pesos with
ending the monies
Macapagal-Arroyo administrations. For the past fifteen years the case has been
tied up in the slow moving courts as the basic nature of the monies
Philippine
was debated. Since the case involves as much as 130 billion pesos, plus control
of San and numerous charges of governmental
Miguel Corporation,
irregularities, there is little likelihood that the case will soon see resolution,
provincial capital of Puerto Princesa, and seized twenty resort guests and staff.
The guests included three Americans: a Christian missionary couple working
in the Philippines, and originally from Kansas, and Guillermo Sobrero, a
naturalized American originally from Argentina and residing in California.
The May 2001 raid was reminiscent of the attack in 2000 on a resort inMalaysia
in which the Muslim group captured a number of European tourists. However,
considering the distance of the Muslim southern islands from Palawan, the
no
May 2001 attack was not anticipated. The raiders met resistance and left
behind a stunned and devastated resort staff.28
Although estimates vary, the 2000 raid on the Malaysian resort netted the
Abu Sayyaf between US$15 and US$20 million dollars in ransom. As a result,
their ranks swelled as young men in this extremely poor area of the country
joined the Abu Sayyaf hoping to profit from the kidnapping trade. In addition
to personal the Abu a substantial portion of the
gain, Sayyaf's leadership used
precious year's ill-gotten gains to purchase high-powered boats and sophisticated
automatic weapons, all of which outclass the Philippine military's dilapidated
and outmoded equipment. Due to the element of surprise and fast boats, the
escaped into the jungle. Local officials and the nation were incredulous, and
the military's initial embarrassment was when the town priest,
compounded
Father Cirilo
Nacorda, charged collusion between the local military
commanders and the kidnappers. Captured hospital workers told Nacorda
that they saw money change hands as a few wealthy Dos Palmas captives paid
ransom and made a phony escape in the confusion. Eleven members of the
town's volunteer police force corroborated the charges and said that a company
of Scout Rangers abandoned their post at the back of the hospital in the late
afternoon just as darkness was setting in.
The army angrily denied the allegations, and Macapagal-Arroyo spoke in
defence of the military, but she quickly reassigned the commanding officers,
even as the Senate prepared to hold hearings to investigate the accusations.
Four hearing were eventually held in September, but reached no conclusion.
Later in December, additional allegations by Senator Serge Osmena rekindled
the controversy, and defence committee chair, Senator Ramon Magsaysay, Jr.,
promised to reopen the hearings once Osmena was
prepared to present his
evidence. While Nacorda's and Osmena's charges may never be substantiated,
this is not the first time that the military has been implicated as colluding with
the Abu Sayyaf. In 2000 some fifty-three Filipinos had been captured at the
Claretian School of Tumahubong, Basilan, and they told remarkably similar
stories.29
Ten days after their amazing escape from Lamitan, an Abu Sayyaf spokesman
announced that American hostage Guillermo Sobrero had been beheaded.
Not long after, a number of hostages gained their release after paying ransom,
despite the President's "no ransom" policy. For the next fewmonths, thousands
of Philippine troops scoured the island occasionally encountering, and either
killing
or
capturing
some of the gang's members, but the rescue of the
savage attack on New York's twin towers, but the long-drawn hostage drama on
Basilan gained international attention. As luck would have it, on 20 November,
the new Philippine President paid a previously scheduled visit to the WTiite
House where she and her American counterpart met for the first time. The
lady President discussed the hostage situation in Basilan and emphasized the
Abu Sayyaf's radical origins that allegedly included ties with Osama bin Laden's
Al-Qaeda group in Afghanistan. She also pledged to walk "every step of the
way" with the United States in the global war on terrorism. George W. Bush
was elated to have his firstAsian returned to
ally and Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo
Manila with approximately $4.6 billion in investments, development assistance,
trade commitments, and tariff concessions from the U.S. government and
equipment.
Meanwhile, at home, opposition Congressional leaders asked just what was
expected of the Philippines in return for the American largess.31 In 1991, the
Philippine Senate had voted to terminate the RP-U.S. Military Bases Agreement,
and Filipino sentiments are such that any agreement that looks like a return
to the past will encounter strong opposition. In fact, an American military
visited the as early as October to evaluate the Philippine's
delegation Philippines
anti-Abu Sayyaf operations. Two other groups of "special operations" advisers
visited the southern islands in early December while a third batch arrived in
mid-month. During their visits, these soldiers identified suitable barracks and
training facilities for what was expected to be a much larger group of American
military personnel.32 All these activities raised concerns about Philippine
sovereignty, and when the American trainers arrive in 2002, their presence
and activities are certain to be a subject of keen interest.
personnel were killed in the first attack on the town of Indanan, that action
was the insurgents' only victory. A little later, a frontal attack on the
headquarters
of the army's 104th Infantry Brigade in the town of Jolo resulted in only one
government death and the loss of forty-eight of the attackers. Soon government
forces all over the island were in charge and the rebels resorted to taking
118 civilian hostages that only prolonged the affair until 28 November when
and development to the people".33 By the end of the year and after working
out procedural matters, Malaysia was prepared to deport Misuari back to the
Finally, in 1996a new agreement was reached that created the ARMM
comprising of those provinces and cities that voted to join the configuration.
Though much smaller than what was originally agreed to in 1976, the ARMM
also had a Southern Philippine Council for Peace and Development (SPCPD),
and substantial government support was promised. Nur Misuari became ARMM
governor and chaired the SPCPD. Unfortunately, five years later Misuari had
very little social or economic progress to show for his efforts, and there were
numerous reports of corruption while much was made of his supposedly lavish
lifestyle.
of the end came on 29
The beginning April when the MNLF executive
council decided to oust Misuari as its chair and make him a "chair
powerless
emeritus", while they ruled as a body. Although still ARMM governor and
chair of the SPCPD, the loss of his MNLF power base made Misuari vulnerable.
This weakness was clearly revealed when the MNLF began tomake fundamental
publicly supporting his friend Anwar, Estrada avoided visiting Malaysia, and
received Anwar's wife at Malacanang. Not one who easily tolerates
cordially
criticism, Dr Mahathir considered the Philippine President's behaviour blatant
interference in Malaysia's internal politics, and relations between the two
countries cooled
considerably.
Shortly after coming into power, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo chose Malaysia
as the first country to which she would make a state visit. Recognizing that
the southern islands, have regional dimensions, she was intent on repairing
the diplomatic damage that her predecessor had done. Ostensibly, her primary
reason to visit Kuala Lumpur was to secure agreements to promote joint
Philippine-Malaysian development of the southern Philippines. However, during
her 7-8 August visit, she pointedly ignored the jailed former Deputy Prime
Minister and praised Dr Mahathir as "my model of a leader", while speaking
of the strong measures he took against currency speculation in
approvingly
1997.
In addition to achieving and diplomatic objectives, Macapagal
her economic
fighters from Misuari's MNLF. Since the subsequent appearance of the Abu
Sayyaf in the late 1990s, and especially after its year 2000 raid in Malaysia, Dr
Mahathir's government has revisited its previous practice of providing support
for Philippine Muslim insurgents. With January's change of government in
Manila, Kuala Lumpur's leaders have also been receptive to requests to act as
a peace broker. Before Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's arrival, Malaysia served as a
venue to promote reconciliation between the twomainstream insurgent groups,
a big factor that had to be decided first before the MILF was even willing to
consider a ceasefire with Manila. The MNLF-MILF were
signing negotiations
threatened at a number of points, but a final
agreement only was reached
Philippine military could concentrate more of its resources on the Abu Sayyaf
even as Nur Misuari was further isolated.
Days after being relieved as SPCPD chair, Misuari lost another political
battle. On 14 August, a was held
plebiscite throughout Mindanao that allowed
voters to determine, once again, the composition of the ARMM. Misuari and
his remaining supporters had vigorously, but unsuccessfully, opposed the
as a violation of the 1996 peace agreement that created the ARMM.
plebiscite
A greater problem forMisuari was that as part of his opposition to the plebiscite,
he also refused to run for re-election under its auspices.36 When it was
announced that new election would be held on 26 November for the newly
redefined ARMM, Misuari faced the certain loss of his position unless he could
privilege. The armed uprising failed to stop the election that saw victory going
to the administration-backed candidate, Farouk Hussin. As a member of the
MNLF executive council, Hussin had led the move to oust Misuari from the
organization's leadership. As the final votes were being tallied, Hussin promised
that he would not repeat Misuari's mistakes.
Conclusion
prospects for 2002 look good. Whether in the Philippine Congress, the economy,
or the Islamic southern islands, made progress on all fronts
Macapagal-Arroyo
and either outmanoeuvred or sidelined her opponents. Some difficulties ahead
for 2002 finishing off the Abu Sayyaf with American
include assistance but
without a nationalist backlash, the case against
creating pursuing Sandiganbayan
Estrada, and dealing with Panfilo Lacson and the remnants of his extra-judicial
PNP unit. A November 2001 survey conducted by the Social Weather Station
showed her with a 53 per cent approval rating which matched the highest
that former presidents Ramos and Estrada ever had in their
ratings
incumbencies. Especially important were the improvements in her approval
ratings among Manila's poor who had formed the bulk of Estrada's supporters.37
This increase is critical because itmay indicate a lessening of the extreme class
differences that Estrada and his political allies attempted to exploit for their
own ends. One can only hope.
Notes
1. EDSA refers to Epifanio de los Santos Avenue, a multi-lane highway that rings the
Metro Manila area. It was on that major at the between the entrances
artery spot
to Camp Crame and Fort Bonifacio that protesters gathered in 1986 to protect
mutineers and the ascension of Coraz?n to the
military support Aquino presidency.
2. Sheila S. Coronel, ed., Estrada: Millions, Mansions and Mistresses (Quezon
Investigating
City: Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism, 2000).
3. Isagani A. Cruz, "The Gathering Storm", Philippine Daily Inquirer, 19 January 2001.
4. See Vicente Rafael, "The Cell Phone and the Crowd: Messianic Politics in Recent
Philippine History", Public Culture (forthcoming) ; currently, the article is available
on-line at
<http://communication.ucsd.edu/people/f_rafael.cellphone.html>.
5. "Stay on Edsa Until Evil Is Conquered by Good", "Business Leaders Back 'People
Power'", "'Shameless' Vote Irks Folks", and "Ramos Calls on Police to
Military,
Support People", Philippine Daily Inquirer, 18 January 2001.
6. "Time's Up for Erap", "AFP Deals Fatal Blow to Estrada Presidency", "Military
Defection: The Inside Story", and "It's Over: 10 Cabinet Men Resign", Philippine
Daily Inquirer, 20 January 2001.
20. See, Christine Herrera and Carlito Pablo, "The U.S. Trail", and Christine
Money
Herrera, "'Ping Has U.S. Homes, Too'", Philippine Daily Inquirer,August 6 2001;
Antonio T. Carpio, "Ping Stings Victor", Philippine Daily Inquirer, 12 August 2001;
and Carlito Pablo, Armand Nocum, and Martin P. Marfil, "Kim: I'm Pal But
Ping's
Not a Drug Lord", Philippine Daily Inquirer, 14 August 2001.
21. See the Philippine Daily Inquirer reports of Carlito Pablo and Martin P. Marfil,
"Military Grills Ex-Lacson Men Over Seized Explosives", 30 December 2001, and
Christian V. and Carlito Pablo, "Cervantes Waited for His
T.J. Burgonio, Esguerra,
Killer on New Year's Eve", 1 January 2002.
22. Armand .Nocum, to Estrada's Indian
"Atong Ang 'key' Crimes, Says Trader",
31. Inquirer News Service, "What's the Catch? Solon Asks Macapagal of $4-B US Aid",
Philippine Daily Inquirer, 27 November 2001.
32. Tim Weiner, "American Action Is Held Likely inAsia," New YorkTimes, 10 October
2001. See also France-Presse, "U.S. Soldiers in RP for 'Sensitive'
Agence Special Ops
Mission", in Philippine Daily Inquirer, 14 December 2001.
33. Don Kirk, "Filipinos Fear More Violence as 5 Muslim Provinces Vote", New York
Times, 26 November 2001; and Editorial, "Squandered Opportunities", Philippine
Daily Inquirer, 27 November 2001.
34. Nati Nuguid, "FirstTime Out", Philippines Free Press, 25 August 2001, pp. 8, 10, 12.
35. Donna S. Cueto, "Wanted: New Job forMisuari", Philippine Daily Inquirer, 12August
2001.
36. Edwin O. Fernandez, "NurMisuari Makes Self Scarce", Philippine Daily Inquirer, 26
August 2001.
37. Carlito Pablo, "SWS Survey Says Macapagal Rating at 'Record High'", Philippine
Daily Inquirer, 4 December 2001.