Principles of Transportation Engineering

Learning Module Series

Unit 2: Traffic Stream Models & Traffic Flow Fundamentals
Lesson 2: Relationships between Flow, Density, and Speed, the Greenshields Model

Relationships between Flow Speed & Density

A relationship exists among the three most important traffic variables: flow rate, space
mean speed, and density. A dimensional analysis of the units will show that flow rate
(veh/hr) is simply the product of density (veh/km) and space mean speed (km/hr), or:

q = k × 𝜇𝑠

As mentioned earlier, density is the most difficult variable to measure. It can be

obtained indirectly using this relation.

The relationship among the three variables, 𝜇𝑠 , k, and q is called the traffic stream
model. Two specific points on the model can also be established (referring on the graph
shown above):
a. As concentration approaches zero (light traffic), mean speed approaches the
mean free-flow speed 𝜇𝑡 and the flow approaches zero.
b. as concentration approaches its maximum value, called jam density, k j,
speed approaches zero and flow again approaches zero.
 Principles of Transportation Engineering
Learning Module Series
Unit 2: Traffic Stream Models & Traffic Flow Fundamentals
Lesson 2: Relationships between Flow, Density, and Speed, the Greenshields Model

 Greenshield’s Linear Speed-Concentration Models

Greenshields, as one of the early investigators of traffic characteristics, proposed a
linear relationship between flow and concentration that is usually expressed:

𝑘
𝜇 = 𝜇𝑓 (1 − )
𝑘𝑗

Where:
𝜇𝑓 = free flow speed
𝑘𝑗 = jam density

This model is simple to use and several investigators have found good correlation
between the model and field data. See figure below:
 Principles of Transportation Engineering
Learning Module Series
Unit 2: Traffic Stream Models & Traffic Flow Fundamentals
Lesson 2: Relationships between Flow, Density, and Speed, the Greenshields Model

 Linear Regression

Linear regression attempts to model the relationship between two variables by fitting
a linear equation to observed data. One variable is considered to be an explanatory
variable, and the other is considered to be a dependent variable. For example, a
modeler might want to relate the weights of individuals to their heights using a linear
regression model.
Before attempting to fit a linear model to observed data, a modeler should first
determine whether or not there is a relationship between the variables of interest.
This does not necessarily imply that one variable causes the other (for example,
higher SAT scores do not cause higher college grades), but that there is some
significant association between the two variables. A scatterplot can be a helpful tool
in determining the strength of the relationship between two variables. If there
appears to be no association between the proposed explanatory and dependent
variables (i.e., the scatterplot does not indicate any increasing or decreasing trends),
then fitting a linear regression model to the data probably will not provide a useful
model. A valuable numerical measure of association between two variables is the
correlation coefficient, which is a value between -1 and 1 indicating the strength of the
association of the observed data for the two variables.

A linear regression line has an equation of the form Y = a + bX, where X is the
explanatory variable and Y is the dependent variable. The slope of the line is b, and a
is the intercept (the value of y when x = 0)

Outliers and Influential Observations

After a regression line has been computed for a group of data, a point which lies far
from the line (and thus has a large residual value) is known as an outlier. Such points
may represent erroneous data, or may indicate a poorly fitting regression line. If a
point lies far from the other data in the horizontal direction, it is known as an
influential observation.

Residuals

Once a regression model has been fit to a group of data, examination of the residuals
(the deviations from the fitted line to the observed values) allows the modeler to
investigate the validity of his or her assumption that a linear relationship exists.
Plotting the residuals on the y-axis against the explanatory variable on the x-axis
reveals any possible non-linear relationship among the variables, or might alert the
modeler to investigate lurking variables.
 Principles of Transportation Engineering
Learning Module Series
Unit 2: Traffic Stream Models & Traffic Flow Fundamentals
Lesson 2: Relationships between Flow, Density, and Speed, the Greenshields Model

The Linear Regression Equation

Linear regression is a way to model the relationship between two variables. You might
also recognize the equation as the slope formula. The equation has the form Y= a +
bX, where Y is the dependent variable (that’s the variable that goes on the Y axis), X
is the independent variable (i.e. it is plotted on the X axis), b is the slope of the line
and a is the y-intercept.

The first step in finding a linear regression equation is to determine if there is a

relationship between the two variables. This is often a judgment call for the
researcher. You’ll also need a list of your data in x-y format (i.e. two columns of data—
independent and dependent variables).

The Correlation Coefficient

Correlation coefficient formulas are used to find how strong a relationship is between
data. The formulas return a value between -1 and 1, where:

 1 indicates a strong positive relationship.

 -1 indicates a strong negative relationship.
 A result of zero indicates no relationship at all.

 A correlation coefficient of 1 means that for every positive increase in one variable,
there is a positive increase of a fixed proportion in the other. For example, shoe
sizes go up in (almost) perfect correlation with foot length.
 A correlation coefficient of -1 means that for every positive increase in one variable,
there is a negative decrease of a fixed proportion in the other. For example, the
amount of gas in a tank decreases in (almost) perfect correlation with speed.
 Zero means that for every increase, there isn’t a positive or negative increase. The
two just aren’t related.
The absolute value of the correlation coefficient gives us the relationship strength.
The larger the number, the stronger the relationship. For example, |-.75| = .75, which
has a stronger relationship than .65.
 Principles of Transportation Engineering
Learning Module Series
Unit 2: Traffic Stream Models & Traffic Flow Fundamentals
Lesson 2: Relationships between Flow, Density, and Speed, the Greenshields Model

The Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient

One of the most commonly used formulas in stats is Pearson’s correlation coefficient
formula. In determining the correlations of data in greenshield’s model. We will be
using this formula:

Sample Problem 1: (Greenshield’s Model)

Data on density and speed were obtained from a four-lane, two-way rural highway (in one
direction only):

Density, veh/km Speed, kph

75 45
15 85
142 10
100 30

Determine the relationship between density and speed.

(See video posted on our private fb page for the solution)

 Principles of Transportation Engineering
Learning Module Series
Unit 2: Traffic Stream Models & Traffic Flow Fundamentals
Lesson 2: Relationships between Flow, Density, and Speed, the Greenshields Model

Problems for Practice:

1. The following data is obtained from a survey along Enrile Avenue:
Flow, veh/hr Speed, km/hr
1600 80
3705 39
3900 65
2400 20
1000 15
4000 50

Perform regression analysis on speed-density relation and estimate the maximum flow or
capacity.