Anoop Randhawa

Summary:
Gavin Schmidt talks about how we live in a complex environment and how this is visible
to us in various ways. The environment is complex, but at the same time, familiar. The
patterns repeat but they’re never exactly the same. These patterns are there at all of the
different scales, but you cannot simply take these patterns and make a smaller climate. As
Gavin explained in the TED talk, “it’s the whole or it’s nothing”. Furthermore, the scales that
give you these kinds of patterns vary over a vast range of magnitude. To be exact, around
14 orders of magnitude. Additionally, we need to be able to approximate the sub-scale
processes in some way. However, this is a challenge. These different models already
involve thousands of calculations, and we can keep on adding more questions to them. In
fact, these models are already around a million lines of code. Climate models are a key
aspect of this TED talk. But, what does a climate model look like? Schmidt mentions that an
old type of a climate model is a punch card. The punch cards are no longer used, but we still
use Fortran. But, how do we take the complexity of climate models and change it all into a
line of code? Well as Schmidt explains, “we do it one piece at a time”. For example, say
we’re
looking at sea ice in the Arctic, we can look at all of the different equations that go into
making the ice grow/melt/change shape and we can code all of this. The same goes for the
other pieces as well. Add all of those pieces together, and you have a beautiful
representation of what’s going on in the climate system. All of the things that you see in the
climate system are emergent properties that are a result of the interaction of those
small-scale processes. Now let’s say we kick this system, what happens to these emergent
properties? Well you may first be thinking, “​how do we kick the system?​”. There’s actually
several ways to kick the system. Some ways include wobbles in the earth's orbit, and
changes in the solar cycle to name a few. A term that Gavin mentions during the TED Talk is
“model skill”. But, what exactly is model skill? Well, you should first note that models are
always wrong. They are what we call approximations. So, what you really have to think
about is “whether a model tells you more information than you would’ve had otherwise”. If it
does, then the model is skillful. The technical definition is “a model result is skillful if it gives
better predictions than a simpler alternative”. Now why do we look at models in the first
place? The answer lies in the phrase, “if we had observations of the future, we obviously
would trust them more than models, but unfortunately observations of the future are not
available at this time”. The future is unknown and uncertain, but we have some choices
placed right in front of us. We can do some work to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide
into the atmosphere. We can do a lot more work to truly reduce the emissions of carbon
dioxide. Or we can continue on with our lives and leave it to fate. To conclude the
presentation, Gavin Schmidt recalled a powerful phrase that Sherwood Rowland once said
when he was accepting his Nobel prize, “what’s the use of having developed a science well
enough to make predictions if, in the end, all we’re willing to do is stand around and wait for
them to come true?”. As Gavin says at the end, “the models are skillful but what we do with
the information from those models is totally up to you”.

Personal Takeaway:
The “Emergent Patterns of Climate Change” TED Talk covered some points that really
interested me. But, from this entire TED Talk, Sherwood Rowland’s powerful message is
what really hit hard for me. When Sherwood Rowland was accepting his Nobel Prize for the
chemistry that led to ozone depletion, he asked the audience: “What’s the use of having
 Anoop Randhawa

developed a science well enough to make predictions if, in the end, all we’re willing to do is
stand around and wait for them to come true?”. This is a crucial question we should all be
asking ourselves. We have all of this scientific evidence right in front of our eyes. These
models and graphs are showing that if we simply leave it to fate and do nothing about
climate change, a “global disaster” will unfold. In fact, we are already starting to see this
“global disaster” unleash itself . Yet, there is hardly any change being made. When will
governments, politicians, and civilians start working towards making changes? How long will
it take for people to realize how large and important of an issue climate change is? By the
time change does start being made, will it be too late? Climate change is a complex
problem. Therefore, the solution will require a globally-coordinated response, and efforts on
the city- and regional-level. But, it’s important for us to realize that each one of us can help
make a difference as well by changing our ways of living more and more every day.