Probability

of an event, Conditional Probability, Total Probability, Bayes’ Rule

1. If a letter is chosen at random from the English alphabet, find the probability that the
letter
(a) is a vowel exclusive of y;


(b) is listed somewhere ahead of the letter j;

(c) is listed somewhere after the letter g.

2. In a high school graduating class of 100 students, 54 studied mathematics, 69 studied

history, and 35 studied both mathematics and history. If one of these students is
selected at random, find the probability that
(a) the student took mathematics or history;


(b) the student did not take either of these subjects;

(c) the student took history but not mathematics.

 Probability of an event, Conditional Probability, Total Probability, Bayes’ Rule

3. The probability that a married man watches a certain television show is 0.45, and the
probability that a married woman watches the show is 0.5. The probability that a man
watches the show, given that his wife does, is 0.8. Find the probability that
(a) a married couple watches the show;

Exercises 71

2.87 A real estate agent has 8 master keys to open Assume P (A) = 0.3, P (B|A) = 0.75, P (B|A′ ) = 0.20,
several new homes. Only 1 master key will open any P (C|A∩B) = 0.20, P (C|A′ ∩B) = 0.15, P (C|A∩B ′ ) =
given house. If 40% of these homes are usually left 0.80, and P (C|A′ ∩ B ′ ) = 0.90.
unlocked, what is the probability that the real estate (a) Find P (A ∩ B ∩ C).
agent can get into a specific home if the agent selects
(b) Find P (B ′ ∩ C).
3 master keys at (b)
random before
a wife leaving
watches thetheshow,
office?
given that her husband
(c) Find P (C). does;
2.88 Before the distribution of certain statistical soft- (d) Find the probability that the river is polluted, given
ware, every fourth compact disk (CD) is tested for ac- that fishing is permitted and the sample tested did
curacy. The testing process consists of running four not detect pollution.
independent programs and checking the results. The
failure rates for the four testing programs are, respec-
tively, 0.01, 0.03, 0.02, and 0.01. 2.91 Find the probability of randomly selecting 4
(a) What is the probability that a CD was tested and good quarts of milk in succession from a cooler con-
failed any test? taining 20 quarts of which 5 have spoiled, by using
(b) Given that a CD was tested, what is the probability (a) the first formula of Theorem 2.12 on page 68;
that it failed program 2 or 3? (b) the formulas of Theorem 2.6 and Rule 2.3 on pages
(c) In a sample of 100, how many CDs would you ex- 50 and 54, respectively.
(c) at least one member of a married couple will watch the show.
pect to be rejected?
(d) Given that a CD was defective, what is the proba- 2.92 Suppose the diagram of an electrical system is
bility that it was tested? as given in Figure 2.10. What is the probability that
the system works? Assume the components fail inde-
2.89 A town has two fire engines operating indepen- pendently.
dently. The probability that a specific engine is avail-
able when needed is 0.96.
(a) What is the probability that neither is available 2.93 A circuit system is given in Figure 2.11. Assume
when needed? the components fail independently.
(b) What is the probability that a fire engine is avail- (a) What is the probability that the entire system
able when needed? works?
(b) Given that the system works, what is the probabil-
2.904. Pollution
Supposeofthe thediagram
rivers in of
theanUnited
electrical system
States has is asitygiven in the
that the Figure below.
component A is not(a) What
working?
been a problem for many years. Consider the following
events: is the probability that the system works? (b) Given that the system works, what is the
A : theprobability
river is polluted, 2.94 In the situation of Exercise 2.93, it is known that
that the component B is not the working? Assume
system does the What
not work. components fail
is the probability that
B : a sample of water tested detects pollution, the component A also does not work?
independently.
C : fishing is permitted.

0.7 0.7 0.7

B A B
0.95 0.9

A D
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

C C D E

Figure 2.10: Diagram for Exercise 2.92. Figure 2.11: Diagram for Exercise 2.93.
Probability of an event, Conditional Probability, Total Probability, Bayes’ Rule

5. In a certain region of the country it is known from past experience that the probability
of selecting an adult over 40 years of age with cancer is 0.05. If the probability of a
doctor correctly diagnosing a person with cancer as having the disease is 0.78 and the
probability of incorrectly diagnosing a person without cancer as having the disease is
0.06, what is the probability that an adult over 40 years of age is diagnosed as having
cancer?

6. Referring to Exercise 5, what is the probability that a person diagnosed as having

cancer actually has the disease?

7. A paint-store chain produces and sells latex and semigloss paint. Based on long-range
sales, the probability that a customer will purchase latex paint is 0.75. Of those that
purchase latex paint, 60% also purchase rollers. But only 30% of semigloss paint
buyers purchase rollers. A randomly selected buyer purchases a roller and a can of
paint. What is the probability that the paint is latex?