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CH. 1
ﺷﺮح ﻣﺒﺴﻂ ﺑﺎﻟﻠﻐﺘﻴﻦ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ واﻹﻧﺠﻠﻴﺰﻳﺔ
أﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻬﺔ ﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎرات اﻟﻤﺎﺿﻴﺔ
ﺇﻋـــــﺪﺍﺩ
ﺃﺳﺘﺎﺫ /ﻗﺎﺳﻢ ﻣﻀﻮﻱ
ﺟﻮال 0502180703
CHAPTER ONE:
THE NATURE OF PROBABILITY & STATISTICS:
ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت واﻹﺣﺼﺎء
Statistics:
Is the science of conducting studies to collect, organize, summarize, analyze and draw
conclusions from data.
. هﻮ اﻟﻌﻠﻢ اﻟﺬي ﻳﻬﺘﻢ ﺑﺠﻤﻊ وﺗﻠﺨﻴﺺ وﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ وﺿﻊ اﻻﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺟﺎت: اﻹﺣﺼﺎء
أﻗﺴﺎم اﻹﺣﺼﺎء
Descriptive Inferential
وﺻـــــــــــﻔﻲ اﺳﺘــــــــﺪﻻﻟﻲ
Descriptive statistics:
consists of the collection organization, summarization, and presentation of data.
. ﻳﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ﺟﻤﻊ وﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ وﺗﻠﺨﻴﺺ وﻋﺮض اﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎت:اﻹﺣﺼﺎء اﻟﻮﺻﻔﻲ
Inferential statistics:
consists of generalizing from samples to populations, performing estimations and
hypothesis test, determining relationships among variables, and making predictions.
ﻓ ﻲ اﻹﺣ ﺼﺎء اﻻﺳ ﺘﺪﻻﻟﻲ ﻧﻘ ﻮم، ه ﻮ ﻋﻤﻠﻴ ﺔ اﻟﺘﻌﻤ ﻴﻢ ﻣ ﻦ اﻟﻌﻴﻨ ﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤ ﻊ:اﻹﺣ ﺼﺎء اﻻﺳ ﺘﺪﻻﻟﻲ
.ﺑﺎﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮوض وﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت ﺑﻴﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮات ووﺿﻊ اﻟﺘﻨﺒﻮءات
أﻗﺴﺎم اﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ
Qualitative Quantitative
ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ وﺻﻔﻲ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ آﻤﻲ
ﻣﺜﻞ: ﻣﺜﻞ:
اﻟﻠﻮن ) :اﺣﻤﺮ – أﺧﻀﺮ ...اﻟﺦ( اﻟﻌﻤﺮ ٥ :ﺳﻨﻮات ١٠ ،ﺳﻨﻮات
اﻟﺠﻨﺴﻴﺔ ) :ﺳﻌﻮدي – آﻮﻳﺘﻲ – ﻋﻤﺎﻧﻲ اﻟﻄﻮل ١٦٠ :ﺳﻢ ١٥١ ،ﺳﻢ
...اﻟﺦ( اﻟﻮزن ٦٠ :ك ٥٦ ،آﻴﻠﻮ
ﻓﺼﻴﻠﺔ اﻟﺪم (A, AB, O, B) : اﻟﺮاﺗﺐ ١٠٠٠٠ :رﻳﺎل
اﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻮﺻﻔﻲ اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺗﻜﻮن اﺳﻢ )ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﺠﻨﺴﻴﺔ؟ ﺳﻌﻮدي ،ﻣﺼﺮي ...اﻟﺦ(.
اﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻜﻤﻲ ﻳﻌﺘﺒﺮ داﺋﻤﺎ ﻋﻦ ﻣﻘﻴﺎس )اﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻨﻮات ،اﻟﻄﻮل ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻨﺘﻤﻴﺘﺮ ،وهﻜﺬا(.
ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺮﻗﻴﻢ ﻣﻔﺮدات اﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ )ﻃﻼب اﻟﺠﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻣﺜﻼ( ﻣﻦ ١إﻟﻰ ١٠٠٠
ﻼ ﻟﻮ آﻨﺎ ﻧﺮﻳﺪ
ﺛﻢ اﺧﺘﻴﺎر اﻟﻄﻼب رﻗﻢ ... ، ٣٠ ، ٢٠ ،١٠إﻟﻰ ﺁﺧﺮ رﻗﻢ ﻣﻄﻠﻮب ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﺜ ً
٥٠ﻣﻔﺮدة ﻧﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺑﻌﺪ اﺧﺘﻴﺎر ٥٠ﻣﻔﺮدة.
ﻟﻮ أردﻧﺎ اﺧﺘﻴﺎر ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻃﺒﻘﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻃﻼب ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﻠﻚ ﻋﺒﺪ اﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ )ﺟﻤﻴﻊ اﻟﻄﻼب(
ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﻘﺴﻢ اﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ إﻟﻰ ﻃﺒﻘﺎت )ذآﻮر ،إﻧﺎث( واﺧﺘﻴﺎر ١٠٠ﻣﺜﻼ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺬآﻮر ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ اﻟﻘﺮﻋ ﺔ
واﺧﺘﻴﺎر ١٠٠ﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺎث ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ اﻟﻘﺮﻋﺔ آﺬﻟﻚ.
اﻟﻔﻜﺮة اﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ اﻟﻄﺒﻘﻴﺔ هﻲ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ اﻟﻄ ﻼب إﻟ ﻰ ﻗ ﺴﻤﻴﻦ وآ ﻞ ﻗ ﺴﻢ ﺗﺠﻤ ﻊ ﺑﻴﻨ ﻪ أﺷ ﻴﺎء
ﻣﺸﺘﺮآﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﺬآﻮر واﻹﻧﺎث.
ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻴﻨ ﺔ اﻟﻌﻨﻘﻮدﻳ ﺔ ﻓﺈﻧﻨ ﺎ ﻧﺨﺘ ﺎر آ ﻞ أﻓ ﺮاد اﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤ ﻊ ﺛ ﻢ ﺗﻘ ﺴﻴﻢ اﻷﻓ ﺮاد إﻟ ﻰ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋ ﺎت )ﻋﻨﺎﻗﻴ ﺪ(
ﺑ ﺪون أن ﻳﻜ ﻮن هﻨ ﺎك راﺑ ﻂ ﻓ ﻲ اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋ ﺔ ،ﻣﺜ ﺎل ﻟ ﻮ أردﻧ ﺎ اﺧﺘﻴ ﺎر ﻋﻴﻨ ﺔ ﻋﻨﻘﻮدﻳ ﺔ ﻣ ﻦ ﺟﻤﻴ ﻊ
اﻟ ﺪآﺎﺗﺮة ﻓ ﻲ ﺟﺎﻣﻌ ﺔ اﻟﻤﻠ ﻚ ﻋﺒ ﺪ اﻟﻌﺰﻳ ﺰ )ﺳ ﻌﻮدﻳﻴﻦ وﻏﻴ ﺮ ﺳ ﻌﻮدﻳﻴﻦ( ﻓﺈﻧﻨ ﺎ ﻧﻘ ﺴﻤﻬﻢ إﻟ ﻰ ٣
ﻼ )آﻞ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺳ ﻌﻮدﻳﻴﻦ وﻏﻴ ﺮ ﺳ ﻌﻮدﻳﻴﻦ( ﺛ ﻢ اﺧﺘﻴ ﺎر ﻋﻴﻨ ﺔ ﻋ ﺸﻮاﺋﻴﺔ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت ﻣﺜ ً
ﻣﻦ آﻞ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ.
دراﺳﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻼﺣﻈﺔ :هﻨﺎ ﻳﺴﺠﻞ اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة ودون ﺗﺪﺧﻞ ﻣﻨﻪ ،ﻣﺜﻞ وﻗﻮف اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ
ﻋﻨﺪ إﺷﺎرة اﻟﻤﺮور وﺗﺴﺠﻴﻞ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺤﺪث أﻣﺎﻣﻪ.
دراﺳﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ :ﻳﻜﻮن ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮان )ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ وﺗﺎﺑﻊ( وﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠ ﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴ ﺮ اﻟﻤ ﺴﺘﻘﻞ وﻣ ﻦ ﺛ ﻢ
ﻣﺤﺎوﻟﺔ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ.
ﻣﺜﻞ ﺣﻘﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻷﺷﺨﺎص ﺑﺪواء ﻣﻌﻴﻦ )ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ( وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ اﺳﺘﺨﺮج أﺛ ﺮ ذﻟ ﻚ اﻟﺤﻘ ﻦ
ﻋﻠﻰ ﺿﻐﻂ اﻟﺪم )اﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ(.
اﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻞ :هﻮ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺞ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ – اﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﺆﺛﺮ ) -ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﺪواء(
اﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ :هﻮ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻞ )ﺿﻐﻂ اﻟﺪم ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﺪواء(.
EXAMPLE:
An advertisement for a truck states that its is 15% more powerful than it's
competitor. This an example of:
A) changing the subject C) suspect samples
B) detached statistics D) ambiguous averages
EXAMPLE:
An advertisement for an exercise product states: "Using this product will
burn 74% more calories." This is an example of
A) changing the subject C) suspect samples
B) detached statistics D) ambiguous averages
EXAMPLE:
And advertisement stated that: (Most of the women have taken the road
less traveled) . This an example of:
A) changing the subject C) suspect samples
B) detached statistics D) ambiguous averages