Rules in Probability

Josephine A. Villamin
Asst. Prof. IV
Classical Probability
Example: Toss a fair coin three times
Possible outcome:{HHH, THH, HTH,
HHT, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}

Event A: “Getting no H” → TTT

Event B: “Getting exactly one H” → HTT,
THT,TTH
Event C: “Getting at least one H” → HTT,
THT, TTH, THH, HTH, HHT, HHH

Probability of each outcome is 1/8

Basic Probability Rules

 Principle:
If you can calculate a probability using logic
and counting you do not need a probability rule
(although the correct rule can always applied)
 Probability rule one
 The first rule simply remind us of the basic property of
probability
 Probability Rule One:
For every event A, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1

Example: Blood Type

Blood Type O A B AB

Probability 0.44 ? 0.10 0.04

1. A person in the U.S. is chosen at random. What is the
probability of the person having blood type A

 P(A) = 1- ( P(O) + P(B) + P(AB) )

 = 1- (0.58) = 0.42
Probability rule 2
 The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes is 1
 Probability rule Three
 Probability Rule Three (Complement Rule)
 - P (not A) = 1- P (A)
 - that is, the probability that an event does not occur is 1 minus
the probability that it does occur)
 The complement event of A – is a separate event consists of all
possible outcomes that are not in A , (event A does not occur)

Venn Diagram- is a simple way to visualize events and

the relationships between them using rectangles and circles
Example: Blood Types

- A person with type A can donate blood to a person with

type A or AB
- A person with type B can donate blood to a person with
type B or AB
- A person with type AB can donate blood to a person with
type AB only
- A person with type O blood can donate to anyone
1.What is the probability that a randomly chosen cannot donate
blood to everyone? In other words, what is the probability that a
randomly chosen person does not have blood type O ? W e need
to find P(not O). Using the complement Rule, P(not O) = 1-
P(O) = 1-0.44 = 0.56
In other words , 56% of the U.S. population does not have blood
type O
 Probabilities Involving Multiple Events
 P (A or B) = P (Event A occurs or event B occurs or both occur
 P (A and B) = P (both event A occurs and event B occurs)

 In Probability, “OR” means either one or the other or both.

and so P(A or B) = P( event A occurs or event B occurs or BOTH
occurs
Probability Rule Four
 The distinction between events that can happen together
and those that cannot is an important one.
Disjoint : Two events that cannot occur at the same time are
called disjoint or mutually exclusive. (We will use disjoint)
It should be clear from the picture that

- In the first case, where events are not disjoint, P( A and B) ≠ 0

- In the second case, where the events ARE disjoint, P(A and B) = 0
Probability Rule Four
(Addition Rule for Disjoint Events)

 If A and B are disjoint events, then P(A or B) =

P(A) + P(B)
* When dealing with probabilities, the word “or”
will always be associated with the operation of
addition, hence the name of this rule, “The
Addition Rule”
 Example: Blood Type

- A person with type A can donate blood to a person with type A or AB

- A person with type B can donate blood to a person with type B or AB
- A person with type AB can donate blood to a person with type AB only
- A person with type O blood can donate to anyone

- 1. What is the probability that a randomly chosen person

is a potential donor for a person with blood type A?
 From the information given, we know that being a potential
donor for a person with blood type A means having blood
type A or O.
 We therefore need to find P(A or O). Since the events A and
O are disjoint, we can use the addition rule for disjoint
events to get:
 P(A or O) = P(A) + P(O) = 0.42 + 0.44 = 0.86.
 It is easy to see why adding the probability actually makes
sense.
 If 42% of the population has blood type A and 44% of the
population has blood type O,
 then 42% + 44% = 86% of the population has either blood
type A or O, and thus are potential donors to a person with
blood type A.
Finding Rule Five
The General Addition Rule
 P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
Note : It is the best to use logic to find P(A and B), not another
formula
 Principle:
 If you can calculate a probability using logic and counting
you do not NEED a probability rule (although the correct
rule can always be applied)
Example: Periodontal Status and Gender
 Consider randomly selecting one individual from those
represented in the following table regarding the periodontal status
of individuals and their gender. Periodontal status refers to gum
disease where individuals are classified as either healthy, have
gingivitis, or have periodontal disease.
 Let’s review what we have learned so far. We can calculate
any probability in this scenario if we can determine how
many individuals satisfy the event or combination of events.
 P(Male) = 3009/8027 = 0.3749
 P(Female) = 5018/8027 = 0.6251
 P(Healthy) = 3750/8027 = 0.4672
 P(Not Healthy) = P(Gingivitis or Perio) = (2419 +
1858)/8027 = 4277/8027 = 0.5328
We could also, calculate this using the complement rule: 1 –
P(Healthy)
 We also previously found that
 P(Male AND Healthy) = 1143/8027 = 0.1424
Recall rule 5, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B). We now use
this rule to calculate P(Male OR Healthy)
-P(Male or Healthy) = P(Male) + P(Healthy) – P(Male and Healthy)
= 0.3749 + 0.4672 – 0.1424 = 0.6997 or about 70%
We solved this question earlier by simply counting how many
individuals are either Male or Healthy or both. The picture below
illustrates the values we need to combine. We need to count
-All males
-All healthy individuals
-BUT, not count anyone twice!!
Example: Important Delivery
 It is vital that a certain document reach its destination within
one day. To maximize the chances of on-time delivery, two
copies of the document are sent using two services, service A
and service B. It is known that the probabilities of on-time
delivery are:
 0.90 for service A (P(A) = 0.90)
 0.80 for service B (P(B) = 0.80)
 0.75 for both services being on time (P(A and B) = 0.75)
(Note that A and B are not disjoint. They can happen
together with probability 0.75.)
 The document will reach its destination on time as long as it
is delivered on time by service A or by service B or by both
services. In other words, when event A occurs or event B
occurs or both occur. so….
 P(on time delivery using this strategy)= P(A or B), which is
represented the by the shaded region in the diagram below:
Rounding Rule of Thumb for Probability
-Follow the following general guidelines in this course. If in
doubt carry more decimal places. If we specify give exactly
what is requested.

*In general you should carry probabilities to at least

4 decimal places for intermediate steps.
*We often round our final answer to two or three
decimal places.
*For extremely small probabilities, it is important to
have 1 or two significant digits (non-zero digits),
such as 0.000001 or 0.000034, etc.
Many computer packages might display extremely small values
using scientific notation such as
58×10-5 or 1.58 E-5 to represent 0.0000158
 Summary
Here is a summary of the rules we have presented so far.
1. Probability Rule #1 states:
For any event A, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
2. Probability Rule #2 states:
The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes is
1
3. The Complement Rule (#3) states that
P(not A) = 1 – P(A)
or when rearranged
P(A) = 1 – P(not A)
The latter representation of the Complement Rule is especially
useful when we need to find probabilities of events of the sort “at
least one of …”
4. The General Addition Rule (#5) states that for any two events,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B),
where, by P(A or B) we mean P(A occurs or B occurs or both).
In the special case of disjoint events, events that cannot occur
together, the General Addition Rule can be reduced to the Addition
Rule for Disjoint Events (#4), which is
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B). *
*ONLY use when you are CONVINCED the events are disjoint
(they do NOT overlap)
5. The restricted version of the addition rule (for disjoint
events) can be easily extended to more than two events.
6. So far, we have only found P(A and B) using logic and counting
in simple examples
Seatwork
1.Find the probability of getting a sum of at least 6 in a
single throw of 2 dice
2. If a number of four distinct digits formed from the
digits our distinct digits 1,2, 3,4,5 and 6, find the
probability that digits 5 and 6 are used.
3.The probability that a certain man will live 20 years
is1/3, and that his wife will live 20 years is 3/8. Find the
probability that
a. the man will be alive and the wife will be dead 20 years
hence;
b. one of them will be alive 20 years hence
4. We wish to determine the probability of boys and
girls in families with 3 children.
5. A box contains 6 white and 2 black balls; another
contains 3 white and 4 black balls. If one ball is
drawn from each, find the probability that (a) both
are white; (b) both are black ; (c) one is white and
one is black ; (d) not one is black.
 Answer:
1. P( at least 6) = 26/36=13/18
Sum of 6 = 5 ways
Sum of 7 = 6 ways
Sum of 8 = 5 ways
Sum of 9 = 4 ways
Sum of 10 = 3 ways
Sum of 11 = 2 ways
Sum of 12 = 1 way
26 way
6 x 6 = 36 ways = total number of ways the two dice will
fall in a single throw
2. P (5 and 6 are used)= 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36
3. P(man dies) =1-1/3 = 2/3
P( woman dies) = 1-3/8 =5/8
a. P (man is alive, wife dead) =1/3 x 5/8 = 5/24
b. 1. man alive, wife dead
2. man dead, wife alive
P(1) = 1/3 X 5/8 =5/24
P(2) = 2/3 X 3/8
P( 1 or 2) = 5/24 + ¼ = 11/24
4. a. all three boys: BBB
P(BBB) = P(B) X P(B) X P(B) = ½ X ½ X ½ = 1/8
b. all three girls; GGG
P(GGG) = P(G) X P(G) X P(G) = ½ X ½ X ½ = 1/8
c. 2 boys and 1 girl : we have three cases
1. BBG = P(B) X P(B) X P(G) = ½ X ½ X ½ = 1/8
2. BGB = P(B) X P(G) X P(B) = ½ X ½ X ½ = 1/8
3. GBB = P(G) X P(B) X P(B) = ½ X ½ X ½ = 1/8
Since two boys and one girl can occur in either 1,2 or 3, which are
all three mutually exclusive events
P(2 BOYS and 1 GIRL) = 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/8 = 3/8
d. 2 girls and 1 boy: also three cases:
(1) GGB or (2) GBG or (3) BGG
Therefore, by symmetry with:
P(2 GIRLS and 1 BOY) = 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/8 = 3/8
 5. a. Both are White P(W1W2) = P(W1) X P(W2)
= 6/8 X 3/7 = 9/28
b. Both are Black P(B1B2) = P(B1) X P(B2)
= 2/8 X 4/7 = 1/7
c. One is white and one is black: Two cases can be cited:
(1) W1B2 or (2) B1W2
P(W1B2) = P(W1) X P(B2) = 6/8 X 4/7 = 3/7
P(B1W2) = P(B1) X P(W2) = 2/8 X 3/7 = 3/28
Therefore: P(one is white and one is black)
=3/7 + 3/28 =15/28
 d. Not one is black: this implies that both are white.
P (not one is black) = P(Both are white) = 9/28 from (a)
Another method : P(not B1) = 1- P(B1) = 1-2/8 =3/4
P(not B2) = 1- P(B2) = 1- 4/7 = 3/7
Therefore, P (not B1 and not B2) = ¾ -3/7 = 9/28
Exercises
 1. Disability vs. Age Group
Adult with health problem(s) that requires the
use of special equipment
Age Yes No Total
35-44 30 762 792
45-54 117 992 1109
55-64 220 1428 1648
65+ 611 2422 3033
Total 978 5604 6582
 Find the P(oldest age group) = P(65+)
P(oldest age group or youngest age group) ?
P(45-64)?
P(45+)?