In the Name of Allah,

The Most
compassionate
And The Most
Merciful!
Historical impacts of climatic events on the production of major field
crops in district D.G Khan, Multan and Bahawalpur from 1980-
2015

By
Sikandar Bashir
B.Sc. (Hons.) Agriculture

A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirement for degree of

M.Sc. (Hons.) Climate Change

INSTITUTE OF SOIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES (ISES),

FACULTY OF AGRICULTURE,
UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE, FAISALABAD
(PAKISTAN)
 DECLARATION
I hereby declare that the contents of the thesis, “Historical impacts of climatic events on the
production of major field crops in district D.G Khan, Multan and Bahawalpur from
1980-2015’’ are product of my own research and no part has been copied from any published
source (except the references, standard mathematical and genetic models/ equations/ formulae/
protocols etc.). I further declare that this work has not been submitted for award of any other
diploma/degree. The University may take action if information provided is found inaccurate at
any stage. (In case of any default the scholar will be proceeded against per HEC plagiarism
policy).

Sikandar Bashir
2012-ag-2372
To
The Controller of Examinations,
University of Agriculture,
Faisalabad.

We, the Supervisory Committee certify that the contents and form of thesis submitted
by Sikandar Bashir Regd. No. 2012-ag-2372 have been found satisfactory and recommend
that it be processed for evaluation by the External Examiner (s) for the award of degree.

Supervisory Committee:

Chairman --------------------------------------
(Dr.Khalid Hussain)

Member ---------------------------------------
(Dr.IrshadBibi)

Member -------------------------------------
(Dr.AshfaqAhmad )
 Oh, Allah Almighty open our eyes,
To see what is beautiful,
Our minds to know what is true,
Our heart to love what is Allah

Dedicated
To
My Respected
Father Bashir Ahmad Khan Kalyar

Whose encouragement and sincere prayers initiate me to achieve high academic

goals
 ACKNOWLDGEMENTS
All worships and praises are only due to the Lord of creation, the most beneficent, merciful
and compassionate, Whose blessings and exaltation flourished my thoughts and thrived my
ambitions to have the cherish fruit of my modest effort in the form of this manuscript.
I offer my humblest thanks and countless salutations to the Holy Prophet Muhammad (PBUH),
who is forever, a torch of guidance for the entire humanity.
I owe my deepest gratitude to my great supervisor Dr. Khalid Hussain, Assistant Professor,
Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, who in spite of his busiest
tiring routine work provided his dexterous and valuable suggestions throughout research
efforts.
Thanks are extended to the members of my supervisory committee. Dr.IrshadBibi, Assistant
professor, Institute of soil and environmental sciences and Dr.Ashfaq Ahmad, Professor,
Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture Faisalabad for their sincere cooperation
and invigorating encouragement during the course of present investigation.
I’m also very thankful to my dear lab mates Muhammad Asad Iqbal, Tauqeer Qadir,
Amira Athar, Khadija Ummer, Laiba Ali, Hira Hijab. I also want to extend my gratitude to
my beloved friends Ali Khan Kalyar, Muhammad Rab Nawaz Kalyar, Muhammad
Haseeb Ur Rehman, Muhammad Zubair,Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq and Munawar Wazeer
Kalyar, Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture Faisalabad for their valuable
suggestions and support during my research activities and thesis write up.
I can’t forget prayers of my beloved Father Bashir Ahmad Khan and Mother, for being
supportive strenuous efforts done by them in enabling me to join the higher ideals of life and
also their financial and moral support, patience and prayers they had made for my success.

Sikandar Bashir
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter Title Page No

1 Introduction 1

2 Review of literature 7

3 Materials and methods 35

4 Results 33

5 Discussion 87

6 Summary 89

References 91

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter Title Page No.

1 Introduction 1
2 Review of Literature 7
2.1Temperature 11
2.1.1Effects of temperature on Sugarcane 12
2.1.2Effects of temperature on Wheat
2.1.3Effects of temperature on Maize 18
2.1.4Effects of temperature on Rice 20
2.2. Rainfall and relative humidity (RH) 22
2.2.1 Effect of rainfall and relative humidity (RH) on Sugarcane 25
2.2.2 Effect of rainfall and relative humidity (RH) on Wheat 27
 2.2.3Effect of rainfall and relative humidity (RH) on Maize 29
3 Materials and Methods
3.1 Bahawalpur
3.2Multan
3.3D.G Khan 30
3.4 Climatic Variables 31
3.5 Main Crops
3.6 Relationships 31
3.7 Feasible generalized least square 31
3.8Crops vs Rainfall 32
3.9Crops vs Humidity 32
3.10 Crops vs Temperature 33
3.11 Crops vs Sunshine hours 33
3.2Statistical analysis
4 Results and Discussion
Crop production system under changing climate
4.1 Bahawalpur
Correlation of different climatic parameters with the yield of Wheat in
Bahawalpur
Correlation of different climatic parameters with the yield of Rice in
Bahawalpur
Correlation of different climatic parameters with the yield of Maize in
Bahawalpur
Correlation of different climatic parameters with the yield of Sugarcane in
Bahawalpur
4.2 Multan
Correlation of different climatic parameters with the yield of Wheat in Multan
Correlation of different climatic parameters with the yield of Rice in Multan
Correlation of different climatic parameters with the yield of Maize in Multan 62
Correlation of different climatic parameters with the yield of Sugarcane in
66
Multan
D.G Khan 70
Correlation of different climatic parameters with the yield of Wheat in D.G
70
Khan
Correlation of different climatic parameters with the yield of Rice in D.G
Khan
Correlation of different climatic parameters with the yield of Maize in D.G
78
Khan
Correlation of different climatic parameters with the yield of Sugarcane in
82
D.G Khan
5 Discussion
6 Summary
References
 List of Tables
Table No. Title Page No.
4.1 Area(ha) of different crops in various regions of Punjab 34
4.2 Regression analysis for Bahawalpur region data 35
4.3 Regression analysis for Multan region data 36
4.4. Regression analysis for D.G Khan region data 37
List of Figures
Figure
Title Page No.
No.
4.1.1 Correlation of Maximum temperature with the yield Wheat in Bahawalpur 39
4.1.2 Correlation of Minimum temperature with the yield Wheat in Bahawalpur 39
4.1.3 Correlation of Rainfall with the yield Wheat in Bahawalpur 40
4.1.4 Correlation of Humidity with the yield Wheat in Bahawalpur 40
4.1.5 Correlation of SRAD with the yield Wheat in Bahawalpur
4.1.6 Correlation of Maximum temperature with the yield Rice in Bahawalpur 43
4.1.7 Correlation of Minimum temperature with the yield Rice in Bahawalpur 44
4.1.8 Correlation of Rainfall with the yield Rice in Bahawalpur 44
4.1.9 Correlation of Humidity with the yield Rice in Bahawalpur 44
4.1.10 Correlation of SRAD with the yield Rice in Bahawalpur 45
4.1.11 Correlation of Maximum temperature with the yield Maize in Bahawalpur 47
4.1.12 Correlation of Minimum temperature with the yield Maize in Bahawalpur
4.1.13 Correlation of Rainfall with the yield Maize in Bahawalpur
4.1.14 Correlation of Humidity with the yield Maize in Bahawalpur
4.1.15 Correlation of SRAD with the yield Maize in Bahawalpur 49
4.1.16 Correlation of Maximum temperature with the yield Sugarcane in Bahawalpur 51
4.1.17 Correlation of Minimum temperature with the yield Sugarcane in Bahawalpur
4.1.18 Correlation of Rainfall with the yield Sugarcane in Bahawalpur 52
4.1.19 Correlation of Humidity with the yield Sugarcane in Bahawalpur 52
4.1.20 Correlation of SRAD with the yield Sugarcane in Bahawalpur 53
4.2.1 Correlation of Maximum temperature with the yield Wheat in Multan 55
4.2.2 Correlation of Minimum temperature with the yield Wheat in Multan 55
4.2.3 Correlation of Rainfall with the yield Wheat in Multan 56
4.2.4 Correlation of Humidity with the yield Wheat in Multan
4.2.5 Correlation of SRAD with the yield Wheat in Multan
4.2.6 Correlation of Maximum temperature with the yield Rice in Multan
4.2.7 Correlation of Minimum temperature with the yield Rice in Multan
4.2.8 Correlation of Rainfall with the yield Rice in Multan
4.2.9 Correlation of Humidity with the yield Rice in Multan
4.2.10 Correlation of SRAD with the yield Rice in Multan
4.2.11 Correlation of Maximum temperature with the yield Maize in Multan
4.2.12 Correlation of Minimum temperature with the yield Maize in Multan
4.2.13 Correlation of Rainfall with the yield Maize in Multan
4.2.14 Correlation of Humidity with the yield Maize in Multan
4.2.15 Correlation of SRAD with the yield Maize in Multan 65
4.2.16 Correlation of Maximum temperature with the yield Sugarcane in Multan 67
4.2.17 Correlation of Minimum temperature with the yield Sugarcane in Multan 67
4.2.18 Correlation of Rainfall with the yield Sugarcane in Multan 68
4.2.19 Correlation of Humidity with the yield Sugarcane in Multan
4.2.20 Correlation of SRAD with the yield Sugarcane in Multan 69
4.3.1 Correlation of Maximum temperature with the yield Wheat in D.G Khan 71
4.3.2 Correlation of Minimum temperature with the yield Wheat in D.G Khan
4.3.3 Correlation of Rainfall with the yield Wheat in D.G Khan
4.3.4 Correlation of Humidity with the yield Wheat in D.G Khan
4.3.5 Correlation of SRAD with the yield Wheat in D.G Khan
4.3.6 Correlation of Maximum temperature with the yield Rice in D.G Khan
4.3.7 Correlation of Minimum temperature with the yield Rice in D.G Khan
4.3.8 Correlation of Rainfall with the yield Rice in D.G Khan
4.3.9 Correlation of Humidity with the yield Rice in D.G Khan
4.3.10 Correlation of SRAD with the yield Rice in D.G Khan
4.3.11 Correlation of Maximum temperature with the yield Maize in D.G Khan
4.3.12 Correlation of Minimum temperature with the yield Maize in D.G Khan
4.3.13 Correlation of Rainfall with the yield Maize in D.G Khan
4.3.14 Correlation of Humidity with the yield Maize in D.G Khan
4.3.15 Correlation of SRAD with the yield Maize in D.G Khan
4.3.16 Correlation of Maximum temperature with the yield Sugarcane in D.G Khan
4.3.17 Correlation of Minimum temperature with the yield Sugarcane in D.G Khan
4.3.18 Correlation of Rainfall with the yield Sugarcane in D.G Khan
4.3.19 Correlation of Humidity with the yield Sugarcane in D.G Khan
4.3.20 Correlation of SRAD with the yield Sugarcane in D.G Khan