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S憲章 発撃等墨 等 ぎ発桑野鹿 奪

Sys骨em等 耳的重訂痛 貞門gand
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0㌢讃 監￠獅 野営e
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JohnD.
Ster
man
Mas
sachus
ett
sInst
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SloanSchoolofMa nageme
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幽腰 甘言
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3

ear
lyyears
.Ex pla
inthedec
lineinincidencebegi
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ngabout1995andthe
evenst
eeperdecli
neinmo r
tali
ty.Explainwhythenumberofpeopl
eli
vlng
wit
hAI DSc onti
nuestoi
ncrease(Figure9-12)
.
Tr ea
tme nt
ssucha sHAARThol dthepromi s
et oconvertHI Vinfect
ion
from ade athsente
ncet oac hronici nfecti
onwi t
hl owmor tali
ty.Basedo n
yourdi agram,wha tcha ngesinbe ha vi
ormi ghtari
s easasidee f
fectofthe
de vel
opme ntofHAART?Howmi ghtthesec ha
nge saff
ectthec ontac
trate
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e c
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reasetheinc i
denceof
HI Vi nfec
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hi mpli
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suc ce
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fultreat
mentss ucha sHAART?

C.Si
mul
ati
ngt
heHI
V/AI
DSe
pide
ic
m .
De vel
opaf orma lmode loftheHI V/AI DSe pidemi cba sedont hestructur eyou
identi
fya bove. Todos oyouwi l
lne edtous eanumbe rofnonl i
nearbe ha vioral
functi
ons( e.
g.,toc apturethewa ype rc
eptionsofr iska lt
e rthec ontac trateor
infect
ivity).Gui delinesf orthede velopme ntofs uc hnonl ine arfunc t
ionsa re
foundi nc hapter1 4.Wo r
k( atleastiniti
ll
a y)wi t
has i
ngl ea ggregates tocka nd
lows
f t
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re,a nddonotdi saggrega t
eyourmode lintos ubpo pulations .Sim -

ulateyourmode lunde ratleasttwoc ondi t

ions :()ont
1 heas sumpt i
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havioralc hangea ndnoi mpr ove me ntint reatme ntsa nd ( 2)includi ngt he
feedbacksyoui dentif
iedi npa rtBt hatmi ghtleadt oc ha nge sint hec ont ac
t
rate,i
ni nfecti
vlty,andi nmor t
a l
ity.Explainther esults.Tes tthepolic yre com-
me ndati
onsyoui dentifi
edi npa rtB･ Discusst hepol i
cyl mPl icati
ons ･
8

9.
3 l
NNOVAT10N DI
FFUSt
ONASINFECT1
0N:
M oDELt
NG NEW I
DEASAND NEW PRODUCTS
Thedi ffusiona ndadopt i
onOfne wi de asa ndne wpr oduc tsof t
enf ollowsS- shape d
growt hpa tt
erns.Wha tarethepos i
tivef e
e dbackstha tgene r
a t
et hei nitialexpone n-
tialgrowt hofas ucces s
fuli nnova tion,a ndwha ta rethene gativef ee dbackst hat
limititsgr owt h?Cons i
dert hes prea dofc abl
et el
evi si
on( Figur e4- 9). Theg rowt h
oft hepo pulati
o nofc ablet elevis
ions ubs cri
bersca nnotbee xpl ainedbyt hebi rth
ofc hildre ntoe xist
ingC ables ubsc ribe r
s,thought heof fspringofhe avyTVvi ew-
ersdot endt og rowupt obec ol
lChpot atoes･Wha tthena ret hepos i
tivel oopsr e-
spons i
bl ef ortheg r
owt hoft hec ablei ndus t
ry?
Thes preado frumor sa ndne wi de as,t
hea doptionofne wt echnol ogl eS,andt he
growt hofne wp r
oduc tscana l
lbevi ewe da sepidemi cssprea dingbypos it
ivef e
e d-
bac ka st hosewhoha vea dol)t
e dthei nnova t
ion" i
nf ect
"t hos ewhoha venot .The
conc eptofpos iti
vef eedba cka sadr iverofa doptiona nddi ffus i
oni sve ryge neral
andc a nbea ppliedtoma nydoma inso fsocialcontagion( e.g.,thef ee dbacks tuC
r -
tureoft hec oca i
nee pidemi cde scr i
be di ns ect
ion7. 3).Ar umors pre adsa sthos e
whoha vehe ardi tt
ellthos ewhoha venot ,whot hengoont ot ellstil
lot hers･Ne w
ideass pr eada sthosewhobe l
ievet he mc omei ntoc ontactwi tht hos ewhodonot
8
Forth
epurpos
eoft
h i
scha
lle
n geit
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cept
abl
etomod e
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etran
sit
io
ns血･
omonecat
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ryof
i
nf
ect
edindi
vi
dualt
othenex
tasfirs
t-
orde
rproc
ess
es.Morere
ali
si
tcmodel
sre
pre
sen
tthei
ncub
a -

t
io
nandmo r
ta
li
tydi
st
ri
b u
ti
onsderi
v e
dfro
me mpl
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cls
a t
udie
smoreaccur
at
el
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ouht
g heuseof
h
ighe
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orde
rdel
ays(s
eechap
ter11).
324 P
artI
II Th
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nami
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a ndpe r sua det he mt oa do ptthene wbe lie f･Thene wbe lieversi nt um t he npe rsua de
ot he rs･Ase a rlya dopt er sofne wt echnol ogya nde ar lypur cha ser sofane wpr oduc t
e xpos et he irf riends ,fa mi lies ,anda cqua int ancest oi t,somea repe rsua de dt ot ryl t
orbuyi tt he ms elve s ･Ina llthes ec a ses ,t hos ewhoha vea l
re adya dopt e dt hepr od-
uc t, i
de ao rte chnol ogyc omei ntoc ont a ctwi ththos ewhoha venot ,expos lngt he m
toi ta ndi nf e ctings omeoft he mwi tht hei de a,orthede siretobuyt hene wpr oduc t
a ndf urthe ri nc reas lngt hepopul ationofa dopt ers･Anys i
tua tioni nwhi chpe ople
imi ta tet hebe ha vior ,be l
ie fs,o rpur cha sesofot hers,a nys it
ua ti
oni nwhi c hpe ople
jumpOnt heba ndwa gon,de scr ibesas itua t
ionofpos i
tivef e edba ckbys oc ilc
a on-
ta glOn･ Ofc our se ,onc et hepopul ationofpot ent i
ala dopt ersha sbe ende pl eted, the
a do ption( inf e ction)r atef al
lst oz ero. 9
Int hec a blet elevi sionc ase, impor tantf actorsinahous ehol d' sde c isiont os ub-
sc ribe( as sumi ngc ablei sa va ila blei nt hec ommuni ty)i ncludef avor abl ewor dof
mo uthf ro mt hos ewhoa lrea dys ubs c ribea ndpos it
ivee xpe rie nc esvi e wl ngC abl ea t
thehome soff ri
e ndsa ndf ami ly. Pe opl ehe ara boutpr ogr amsonl ya va ilableonc - a
bl ea ndf e elthe ymus ts ubs c ribet obehi pa ndkn Owl edge ablea mongt he irpe e rsin
sc hoo lora tt hewor kpl a ce･ Addi tiona lly, pe oplema ys ubs cribet oke e pupwi tht he
Jones es ,tha ti s ,toma inta inore nha nc et he i
rs tatus( ort he i
rpe rce ptionoft he irs ta
-
tus )a mongt he irpe e rgr oup. Al loft hes ec hanne lsofa wa rene ssa ndmot iva tions
fora dopt ionc re atepos itivef ee dba cksa na logoust ot hec onta glOnl oopl nt heba si
c
epi de mi cmode l.
Fi gur e9-13a da ptst heSIe pi de mi cmode l( section9. 2.1 )t ot heca seofi nno-
va tion di f fus ion.Thei nfe ctiouspopul a t
ion now be c ome st hepopul ati
on of
ado pt er s,A-t hos ewhoha vea dopt e dt hene wi de aorpur cha sedt hene wpr oduc t.
Thes us cept ibl epo pul ationbe come sthepoolofpot e ntia lado pt ers ,P.Ado pter sa nd
pot ent ila
a do pt erse nc ount eronea not he rwi thaf r
e que nc yde teri ne
m dbyt hec on-
tac tra te,C･ Un li kei nfe ctiousdi sea ses ,Wo rdofmout he nc ount erst ha tmi ghtl ead
toa do ptionc oul doc curbyt elephone,ma il,ema i
l,orot herr e mot eme ansa nddo
not requl rePhys icalpr oxi mi ty.Asi ni nf ec ti
o usdi s
e as e,note ve rye ncount err esul t
s
ini nf ec t
i on. Thepr opor tionofc ont ac tst hata resufi c i
e ntl
ype rs uasivet oi nduc e
thepot entiala do ptert oa doptt hei nnova tioni st e
rme dhe ret hea do ptionf ra ction
andde not edi( sinc et hea do pt ionf rac tioni sa nalogoust ot hei nf ectivityofadi s
-
ea sei nt hee pide mi cmode l).
Thee qua tionsf ort hes impl ei nnova tiondi ffusionmode la rei dent icalt ot hos e
fort heSImode lofc hr oni ci nfe ctionde scribedi n9･ 2･1･ Us ingt het e rmi nol ogyl n
Fi gure9- 1 3, themode li s
A-I
NTEGRAL(
AR,
Ao) (
9-29)
p-I
NTEGRAL(
-AR,
N-A｡
) (
9-30)
AR-°
ip(
A/N) (
9-31
)

Asi
ntheSImode
l,t
het
ota
lpopul
ati
onNi
scons
tant
:
P+A-N (
9-32)

9
Thel
it
er
at
ur
eond
i軌I
Si
ono
fne
wpr
odu
ctsa
ndo
fso
cia
lan
dte
chn
ica
lin
nov
ati
onsi
shu
ge･
Agoodpl
acetos
ta
rti
sEver
et
tRoge
rs(19
95),
DIHu
siono
flnnov
ati ,
onsacl
ass
icoig
rinal
ly
pu
bli
she
din196 Fo
2. rdi
fusi
onmode
lsappl
i
edtot
hesal
esofnewpro
duc
ts
,seePar
ker(
1994)
a
ndMa ha
jan,
Mu l
l
er,
andBas
s(1
990).
 Ch
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NewP
rod
uct
s325

FIGURE9- 13
Adop ti
onofan ew
i
deaorpr odu ctas
anepi demi c
Pot en ti
aladopt ers
comei nt
oc ont act
withadopt er s
throu ghsoci al
i
n t
er ac ti
ons.
Af ractionoft hese
cont ac t
sr esu一 tin
i
n f
ec tion,thati s,
adop tionoHhe
newi deaor
purch as eoft he
newpr oduc t･
Compar et o Thei nter
pret
ati
oni sthes a
mea si
nt heSImode l
･ Pe oplei ntherelevantc om一
Figur e9- 4･ munltyC Omeintocontacta tarat
eofcpe oplepe rpersonpe rda y･Thetotalra t
ea t
whichcont act
saregeneratedbyt hepot entialadopterpooli sthe ncP･Thepr opor -
ti
onofa doptersi
nthetotalpopul ati
on,A/ N, givesthepr oba bili
tythatanyoft he se
conta
ctsiswi t
ha nadopterwhoca npr ovidewo rdofmo utha bouttheinnova tion･
Final
ly,t
hea dopti
onfraction,i
, i
st heproba bili
tyo fado ptiongi venaC Ont
a CtWi t
h
anadopter.Asbefore,t
hesee quationscons ti
tutea nexa mpl eoft heloglSt
icgr owth
modeldiscussedinsect
ion9. 1.
1 .Thebe ha vi
o rofthemode li stheclass
icS- S
ha ped
growthoft helog
ist
iccurve( Figure9- 1)･

9.
3NI TheLogはt
icMode!ofE
nnov甜 onDi
ff
usi
on:
EXampヨ
es
Thedi ffusionofma nyne wpr oduc tsfollowr oughl yl oglStictr
aJe CtOries ･Asa ne x-
ample ,Figure9- 14s howss alesoft heDi gi talEqui pme ntCo r
por ati
oI IVAX 11 /750
minicomput erinEur ope( Modュ s1 992) ･
TheVAXs e ri
eswa save r
ys ucc e ssfulline
ofmi nicomput er
s .
The ys oldf ora bout$1 00,000t o$1 50,000auni t,de pe ndingon
whichpe ripher a
ls( suc ha st apedr ives)we rei nclude d,a ne xc ell
e ntva luec om-
paredt ot hema infr amesoft heda y･Typi ca lc ustome r
swe rel argec ompa nie s
,
res
earc hor ganizati
ons ,anduni versit
ies, whous edt he mf orda tapr oc ess l
nga ppl i
-
cat
ionsa ndtos u
ppor tscientificande nglne er l
ngc omput ati
oni nR&Dl a bs,pr od-
uctde velopme ntde pa rtme nts,a nda cade mi cr e s
e ar
c h.The11 /750wa si nt roduc ed
in1981 .Sa l
esf oll
ow t hec las s
icbe l
l-sha pe dpr oduc tlif
ec yc le,pe aki ngl nmi d
1984.Thepr oduc twa swi t
hdr awnf rom t hema r
ke ta round1 98 9･Ac c umul ated
sal
esf ollowa nS- Sha pedpa t
h.Si nc etheus e fullifetimeoft heVAXi sl ongc om-
paredt othet i
mehor izonf ort hepr oduc tlifec ycle,iti sreasona blet oa s sumet hat
fewuni tswe red isca rdedpr 10rt O1 989whe nt hepr oduc twa swi t
hdr awnf rom t he
marke t.The r
e forecumul atives alesisagoodme asur eoft heins ta
lle dba se･
Tof itthel oglS
ti cpr oduc tdi f
fusionmode ltot heVAXs alesda ta,a ss umet he
tot
alpopul a t
ionN -c umul atives alesby1 989( abo ut7600uni ts)･ Ther e ma i
ni ng
para
me teroft hemode l,repre sentl
ngt hepr oduc toft hec ontac tratea nda dopt ion
326 Pa
rtI
II Th
eDy
nami
cso
fGr
owt
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GURE9
FI -
14
Sal
esoft he
Di
gitalEqulPment
Corporat
ionVAX
ll/
750i nEurope
Top:Salesrate
(quart
erl
ydat a
atannualrates).
Bottom:Cumul a
-

ti
vesales(roughly
equa日ot he
1981 1983 1984 1986 1988
i
ns t
aHedbase) .
8000

600
0

の
l
l
ll
■
≡
■ 4000
=
〉

2000

1981 1983 1984 1986 1988

℃e:Mo
SouJ dJ 1992,
S( p.58)
.

f
ract
ion(c
i),Canbees t
imatedeas
ilybyli
ne a
rregressi 1
on.0Fi
rst
,re
cal
lfr
om equa-
t
ion(9-
8)thatthesolut
iontothel
ogist
icequati
onc a
nbee xpr
ess
ed(us
ingthevai-
r
a
blenamesf ortheinnovat
iondif
fusi
onmode labove)as

a R e
xp(
got
, (
9-3
3,

whe eA i
r sthenumbe rofa dopters(t
heinstal
ledbase),A｡i stheini
ti
a li
nstal
led
base,Nist hetotalequil
ibrium orfina
lvalueofa dopt
ers,andgoistheinit
ialfr
ac-
ti
onalgrowt hr a
teoft hei nst
a l
ledbase,whicha ttheinit
ialti
mewhe nthereare
veryfew adoptersisequa ltothenumbe rofinf
e c
tivecontact
s(ci).
Takingthena t
-
urall
ogofbot hs ides ,

l
l
-
,
lR ] -i
r
l
lR ]Ig
ot
L (
913
4,

yi
eldsarela
tionshi
pthati
sli
neari
nthepar
amet
ersandca
nbees ti
mat
edbyordi
-
na
ryl eas
tsquares.Not
ethatsnceN - A -P(
i thedi
ferencebet
weent
hetota
l

1
0si
ncetheado
ptio
nr a
tedeen
p dsontheprod
uctoft
heconta
ctr
ateandinfe
cti
vlt
y,C
i,the
se
p
aramet
ersca
nnotbeest
imat
edsepa
rat
elyfr
oms al
esda
ta.Howeve
r,marketr
esear
chtech
nique
s
s
uchast
estmark
ets,f
ocusgr
oups,s
urve
y s
,andsooncanhel
pthemo d
elerdeve
lopest
imat
esof
t
headop
tl
O nf
rac
ti
ona ndcol
l
taCt
rat
e.Forfo
reca
sti
ngpurp
o s
es,
Onl
yt h
ep ro
ductcii
sneeded.
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NewP
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s327

popula
tiona ndthenumberofadopte
rsisthenumberofpot
ent
ialado
pte
rs),
equa
-
ti
on(9-34)C anbewr i
tt
enmoreintui
ti
velyasafunc
tionoft
herati
oofadopte
rst
o
pote
ntia
la dopte
rs(A/P):

･ ; )- ln (
n( % )I g ot (
913
5,
Eq ua t
ion( 9- 34)or( 9- 35)i sk
n owna sthel ogis t
ic( ors impl y, logi t)tra ns for ma t
io n.
Fi gur e9- 1
5S howst hel ogl tt r ans for ma tionoft heVAX s alesda t
a,a longwi tht he
e stima te dl ine arr egr es sion･ Theda taa rec loset ol ine a r,whi chi ndi ca tese xc e l
lent
c orre spo nde ncet ot hel ogl Sticmode l.Thebo ttompa ne lsofFi gur e9- 15C ompa r e
thee stima tedl og lSticc ur vet ot hes a l
e sa ndi ns ta ll
e dba seda ta.
Whi let hel o gi stici nnova tiondi ffusi onmode lf itst heVAX s alesda taqul te
well ,thee s tima tionoft hemode lwa sr etr ospe c ti
ve:t hee ntir es aleshi stor ywa s
us ed,a ndt hees tima tionme thodr e quiredk n owl edgeoft hef i nalva lueoft hei n-
sta lledbas e.I nmos tbus ines ss it
ua t
ions ,howe ver,t hec lient swa ntt oknow t he
like lyg rowt hpa thpr os pe c tive ly,whe nt hema rke tpot ent iali snotk nown,S othe y
c ande c idewhe the rthema rke twi l
lbebi ge noug ht oj us tifye ntrya ndpl a ns tr at
e gy
fo rc apa c it
ya cqui sition, pr lC l
ng,ma r
ke ting,a nds oon･Onewa yt of itt hel ogi stic
gr owt hmode ltoda t apr lOrt OS atur ationi st oes tima tet her a tea twhi cht hef rac -
tiona lgr owt hr atede cline swi thgr owi ngpopul ation.Re ca l
lf rom e qua tion( 9- 1)
ha
t tthef raciona
t lgr owt hr a teoft hel ogl Sticmode lde cline sline rl
a ya st hepo pul
lationg rows .Fig ur e9- 16S howst hef r actiona lgr owt hr atei nca blet ele vi sions ub-
sc riber si nt heUS,a longwi tht hebe stl ine arf i
t( Ca lcul atedbyor di na ryl ea st
squa res ).Ase xpe c ted, thef rac tiona lgrowt hr a t
ede c linesa sthepopul ati ong rows ,
thought he rei sc ons ide rabl eva ia
r t
iona roundt hebe stl ine rf
a it. Thel ogl Sticg rowt h
pa thi mpl i
e dbyt he sepa rame tersf i
t stheda t
awe l
lt hrough1 994a ndpr edic ts
ama xi mum ofa bout74mi llionhous ehol dss ubs c r
ibi ngt oc a ble ,re ache ds hor t
ly
afte r201 0.
The rei s,ho we ve r,c ons ide r abl eunc ert a
int yi nt hi spr edic tion.Fi rs t,the rei s
unc ertaint yr ega rdingt hebe s tf itti
ngl inea rf ractiona lgr owt hr ate･ Thea c t
ua lfrac -
tiona lgr owt hr a t
eva riess ubs t ant i
a llya roundt hebes t恥 Ot he rpa rame ter sf ort he
straig htl inewi llfitne a rlya swe llye tyi eldl argedi fe renc e si nt hema xi mumnum-
be rofs ubs c riber sa ndt imet os atur ation. Se cond, t
hebes tf i
twa ses tima tedf ort he
pe riod1 969 11 99 4; pr lOrt O1 969t hef ra c
tiona lgr owt hr a tewa smuc hhi ghe r.Thi s
ist ypi ca lofgr owt hpr oc e sses :Thef ractiona lgr owt hr a tee a rlyi nt hehi stor yofa
ne wpr oduc tori nnova tioni sof tenve r yhi ghs inc et hepo pul a t
io nofa dopt er siss o
sma ll(a ndofc ou rse, whe nane wpr oduc ti sint roduc edt hegr owt hr a t
ef ort hef irst
repo rt
ingpe riodi si nf ini t
e ). Cha ngi ngt hehi storic alpe riodove rwhi cht hel ogi st
ic
mode li ses tima te dwi llthe r efo rec ha nget hebe stfitpa r ame ter sa ndt hef or ec ast.
Thi rd, thel ogl Stcmode
i lpr esume sal inea rde clinei nt hef rac tiona lgr owt hr atea s
thepo pul ationgr ows .The r ei s ,howe ve r,noc ompe ll
i ngt he or eticalba s isf o rlin-
ea rly･Ot
t he rs hape sf ort hef ra ctiona lg r
owt hr atec ur vewi llyi eldve rydi fe rent
pr edic tions . Tbi llus tra e,Fi
t gur e9- 17S howst hec abl et el evi sionda taa ga lnStt he
be stf itofbot hth el ogi sti
ca ndGompe rtzc ur ve s( equa tion( 91 14) ).TheGompe rtz
curvef i t
st heda taa bouta swe lla st hel ogi sticc ur vebuts ugge stsc ont inue dg rowt h
tone ar ly1 50mi l
lions ubs c ribe r sin2020,doubl et hef ina ll eve lpr edi c tedbyt he
logl Sticmode l.
328 Pa
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

proces s:apos i
tiveloopt hatgenerat
est heinitialperiodofa ccelera
tlngg rowt hand
ane ga t
ivefee dbackthatc ausesthegr owt htos lowa sthec a
rryingC aPaCltylSaPI
proache d･Anys ystemgr owingbypos iti
vef eedbac kmus ti
ncludet hesetwot ypes
ofloops ,couple dnonline ar
ly;anygrowt hmode lmus tbecharacterizedbyaf ra
c-
ti
ona lgrowt hra t
et ha
tul ti
ma t
e l
ydeclinest oz eroa sthepopul at
iona pproa chesit
s
carr
yl ngC apacity.Howe ve r
,asdi s
cuss eda bove, t
hel oglSti
cmode lma kesr est
ri
c-
ti
vea s s
umpt lOnSa boutthena tureofthegr owt hpr oce ss･
Advoc atesoft heloglSt
lc
mode lof te
npr e se
nte vidences el
ecti
ve lytos howhowwe l
lthemode lfitscerta
in
330 P
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da tab uto mi tt hema nyo the rg rowt hpr oc ess esf orwhi chi tdoe snot .Thes ame
c ons id erationsa ppl yt oa llo t
he rs lng lee qua t
iong rowt hmode lss ucha st he
Ri c ha rdso rWe ibul lfami ly.
Thea bi l
ityo ft hel og lSt i
cmode lt of itawi d er ang eofg rowt hpr oc e
ss esa ls o
illus tratess eve ra limpo r t
a ntl essonsa bo utt heva l
id i
tyo fmo delsi nge ne raLFi rst,
thec on tr
a stbe twe enthef o re castso ft hel og lStica ndGo mpe r t
zmode lsf orthec -a
bl et ele visi
o nc ases howni nFi gure9- 1 7S ho wst ha td i
fferen tdiffus ionmode lsc an
pr od uc ewi ldlyd ife rent pr ed ictionswhi lef ittingt heda tae qua l
lywe ll･Thea bi l
ity
tof itt hehi storic alda tadoe sno t,t he refor e,pr ovideas trongba sisf ors e l
e ctlng
amo nga lterna tivehypot he s esa bo utt hena tur eo rs treng t
ho fdi fe r
e ntf eed ba cks
tha tmi g htber e spons iblef わras ys tem' sdyna mi cs･
Se cond, gettlngmo reda tado esno tso lvet hepr o blem. Es tima ti
ngt hepa rame -
ter so fd i
fe r
e ntg rowth mode ls,a ndhe nc ethet raje ctoryOfg ro wt h,bye conome t-
rict ec hniq ue sr e qulreSal onge no ug hs e to ft i
mes eriesda tat opr ovi des tabl e
pa ra me tere stima te sandt odi scrimi na tea mo ngt hed iff
e rentg rowt hmo de l
s ･Ina
re vie wofi nno va tiondi fus io nmode lsf orne wpr oduc tsa l
e sfor eca st
ing, Ma ha jan,
Mul ler, a
ndBa s s( 199 0)no tet ha t" byt het imes ufficiento bs ervaionsha
t vede ve l-
o pe df o rr eli
a blee sti
ma tion,i tist ool atet ous et hee sti
ma t
e sforf ore ca s
tlngPur -
pos es,"Byt het imec a blet elevi sionha spr og resse df are noug ht od i scrimina te
be twe ent hel ogi stica ndGompe rtz( andpos s iblyo the r)mo de ls,s omuc hoft he
d i軌I Sionl i
f ec yc lewi llbepa sttha tthemod e lwi l
lnol onge rbeus efu l･Thewi ldly
d iffere ntf orec astsofc abled iffus iona reg ene ra t
e d40ye arsa ftert hei nt r
o duc tion
o fc abl e ,a氏e ra bo utha lftheho us ehol dsi nt heUSha da lread ya do ptedi t,andwe ll
af tert hee nt ryt ot hei ndus tryoff ormi da bl ec o mpe ti
to r
s ･
Thi rd,ama inpur pos eo fmo de lingl StOd esigna ndt estpo l
ic iesf ori mpr ove -
me nt .Tod os o, thec l
ie ntmus tha vec o nfide nc et hatth emo de lwi llr espondt opol i-
cie st hes amewa yt her e als ys temwoul d. Fi t
tingt hel og is
ticc u r
ve( o ra nymo de l)
toada tas etdo esno ti dent ifyt hes pe cificf e ed ba ckpr oc esse sre spons iblef ort he
dyna mi cs.Thea bi l
ityofamode ltof itt hehi sto ri
c alda tabyi tselfpr ovi de snoi n-

fo rma tiona ta lla bo utwhe the ri t

sr espo ns et opo licieswi llbec or rect･
Toi l
lus t
r ate,not et hatthel ogl Sticmode l,l i
kea llfirst10rd ergr owt hmode ls,
pr esu me stha ttea do pt erpo
h pul ationo rins talle dba s
emo vess tea dilyupwa rd･ The
numbe ro fa t ersc a
d o pnne ve rde c l
ine. Ye tt heh istoryofne wpr oduc tsa ndne w
tec hno logle e S pletewi
is rthi nno va ti
onswhos epa tterno fe me r
ge nc ei sboo ma nd
bus to rfluc t t n. Iti
u a se as
ioyt oi ma gi neC redi bles c enariosi nwhi ch, fore xa mpl e,
ca blet e l
ev n edeis io cline s ,inc
u slud ingr islngp rlCeS,de c li
nlngqua lityofpr 0-
gr amml ng n e ngc
, l Crompe tit
i
a Slonf rom ne wt echnol og iesS uc ha sdi g itals atellite
br oa dc asts n tent
a er
dne t, ande
h ve nade
i clinei nt elevisionvi e wing( we ll
,pe rha ps
tha tl asto ne nt e d
is ible ). Ye
' tthel
c r ogi stcmode
i l
,a nda l
l丘r sto rde rmo de ls,c an
ne ve rg e net e nti
ra ngb utg
a rowt
y h･ The
h semode lsd ono tinc lud et her ichf eed ba ck
stru ctu rene ee t e d ne rat
d emo r
ec
o ompl
g exa ndr ealisticpa tt
e rnss uc ha sov ershoo t
andos c ilt n
la io ershoo ta ndc
o r o v ol l
a ps e｡
In no t n
v a io i
onus ua llyI
d iffu s nvol ve sma nypos i
tivef eed bac ksdr i
vi ngg r owt h
be side sw o rd th( seec
o f m ha pter1 0f
o u ore xa mpl e s)･Fo rexa mpl e ,thea vailability
oft h ird- t
p ar y ei sapo
so 氏 w we 血 ld r
ariverofpr oduc ta tt
r acti
v ene ssfb∫c omp ute rs･
Int u rn, t t ee
h ir d -p a r lope rswiyllwrd itesvof t
wa ref ort hos epl atformst he ybe l
ie ve
ha vet he etg r et a e tpo
s te ntia
ml.Thust
a rk hel a rge rthei ns t
alledba s eofapa rticula r
Ch
apt
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-Sh
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dGr
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andt
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NewP
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s331

comput er( s
uc ha stheVAX) ,themo res of twa r ewi llbewr itt
e nf o rit, themo rea t
-
tra ctivei tbe c ome st opo ten tia lc us to me r s,a ndt hel arge rthei ns talledba s ewi llbe･
Thepos itives oftwa rea va ila bilityl oo p( a ndma nyo th ers)C ans timul ateg r owt hjus t
a sthewo r do fmo uthl oo pc a n. Be c aus et he seot h e rpos it
ivel oo psa reo mi ttedf rom
thes impl einno v ationdi f fus ionmode l,s t
a tistica le stima te soft hes tr
e ngth oft he
wo rdo fmo u hl
t oo pwi llr ele
f c tt hei mpa ctofa llpos itivel oopsc o ntribut ingt ot he
g rowt h. Thei mp ortanc eofwor dofmo uthwi llbeg re atl
yo ve res t
ima tedwhi leat
thes amet imet hes trengt ho fa llt heo mi ttedl oo psi sa ssume dt obez e ro･The
mode lwo uldi nd icatet ha tagoodpol icyt os timul a t
et hee arlyg rowt ho ft hemar-
ke two uldbet os trengt he nwo rdofmo uth( say , bys po nso ringc onf ere nc eso rhi r
-
ingke yo pinio nl e ade rsa ss poke s pe opl e). Ho we ve r,thebe stpo licyma ya ctua l
ly
bet os ti
mul a t
es of twa rea va ila bi lit
ybypa rtne r lngWi ht
t hi rd- pa rtyde ve lope rs.
Suc hamod e lwi llno tyi e ldr e liabl epol ic yr ec o mme nda t
ionsd e spitet hee xc e ll
ent
hi stor icalf it.Amo de lma yf itt heda t
ape rf ectlyf o rthewr ongr ea sons I
I si td ifficultt oove re mpha s izet hei mpl ic atio nsf o rmod e lersa ndc l
ie nt s.The
abi lityo famo d elt or epl ic atehi sto rica lda t ado e sno t,byi t
s elf,indi c atet ha tthe
mode li sus efu l.An df a iluret or epl ica tehi storic alda tado esno tne c ess arilyme an
amod e ls houl db ed ismi sse d. Theut ilityo famo de lc anno tbej udg edbyhi sto ri
c a
l
fita lo neb ut req uir esthemo de lert ode cidewhe th ert hes truc t
ur ea ndde cisio nrul es
o fthemod e
lc o 汀e SpO ndt ot hea c tua ls t
r uc turea ndd ec i
sionr ul esus edbyt her e a
l
pe o plewi ths u fi cientf ide li
t yf ort hec l
ie nt'spur pos e･ Todos or eq uire st hemod-
ele ra ndc lientt oe xami net hea ss umpt io nsOft hemo de lind e tail,toc ond uc tf i
eld
stud ie so fde c isionma ki ng, andt oe xpl or et hes ens itivltyO fmo de lre sultst opl au-
sibl ea lterna tivea ssumpt io ns( a mo ngo the rt es ts)･ De te r
mi ni ngwhe t
he ramode l
pr ovi d esas o un dba sisf ord e cis ionma kingl Sne v erama t
terO nl yo fs tais
t tic alt est
-
1ngO rhi s torica lfitbuti se sse nt iallya nduna vo ida bl yava l
u ej udgme ntt hemod-
ele ra ndc lientmus tma ke .
Unf ortuna te ly,c lien tsa ndmode lersf req ue nt lyg ivehi s torica lfi tt oomuc h
we ight .J ud ingt
g hea ppr o pri ate ne s sOft hemod el '
ss tuc
r ture ,
i tsro bus tne ss ,a ndi t
s
se ns itivltyt Oa ssumpt i
o nst ake st ime,whi lehi storic alf i
tc anbede mo ns trated
qui c kly.Gr aphss howi ngaC l os ef itbe twe e nda taa ndmo de la red r ama tica nd
co mpe lli
ng. Cl ient sa ret ooe asi lys wa ye dbys uc hg raphsa ndbyi mpr e ssivet ables
ofR2a ndo the rs tatistics ･Mode ler s,e ve nwhe nt he yknowbe t
ter ,tooo f teno ve r
-
empha sizes ta ti
s ic
t ss ho wi ngho wwe llt he irmod e lsf i
ttheda t atope r s
ua det hea u-
die nc et ha tthes t
r onghi s tori ca lf itoft hemo de lme ansi tmus tbec o rr
e ct.
Yo us ho uldn otc o nc ludef ro mt hisdi scus sio nt ha thi storica lfiti suni mpo r
tant
ort ha tyo udon otne edt oc ompa r eyourmod el st ot henu me r
ic alda ta ･Ont hec on-
trary , co mpa rlngmod elo utpu tt onu me ricalda tai sapowe r f
u lwa yt oi de nt ifyl i
m-
itatio nso rfla wsi nmode lf or mul a tions . Butt he rei sap rofoun dd ife renc ebe twe en
us inghi sto r
ic ald a t
at oi de nt ifyf la wss oyourmo de lsc anbei mpr ove da ndus ing
his toric alf i
tt oa s sertt heva lidi yo
t fyourmode l .Int hel atterc a se,s howi nghow
we llthemod elf itst heda tai sade fens ivema ne uve rde s
ig nedt opr ote ctamode l
andt hemo delerf ro mc riticis ma nds ealst hec lient -a ndmod eler-o fff ro ml ean
r-
1ng.I nt hef orme rc ase ,t hehi stor ic alf iti sus e dt of indpr obl emsa nds timul a t
e
lea ni
r ng. Exa mi n inghi sto ric alf its ho uldbepa rto fal a rgerp ro ce sso ft es tlnga nd
mode li mp rove me n td esig ne dt oyi e ldamode ls ui tablef orpo licyde s i
gna ndd ec i
-
sionma ki ng( Seec hapt er21 ).
3
32 Pa
rtI
II Th
eDy
nami
cso
fGr
owt
h

9
.3.
3 Th
eBa
ssDi
f
fus
ionMode
一
Oneoft hef lawsi nt hel ogi s
ticmode lofi nnova ti
ondi fus ioni st hes tart
uppr ob1
len.I nt hel ogi stic( andt heot he rsimpl egr owt hmodel sincl udi ngtheRi chards
andWe ibul lfami lies), zeroi sane quilibri
um: thel ogisticmodelca nnote xpl a
int he
genes i
soft hei nitialadopt ers.Pr i
ort othei ntr oduct i
onofca blet elevision,t he
numbe rofca bles ubs c r
ibe rswasz ero; prlOrtOt hef irstslesoft
a heVAXmi nicom-
puter,thei ns tal
l edbas ewasz e ro.Whe ngr owt hpr oces sesbegi n,pos iti
vef eed-
backsde pendi ngont hei nstall
edbas ea r
ea bs entorwea kbeca uset herea renoor
onlyaf e
wa dopte rs.Ini ti
a lgrowthi sdr i
ve nbyot he rfeedba c ksout si
det hebound-
aryoft hes impl edi ff usionmode ls.The reares eve r
a lcha nne lsofawa renes st
ha t
cans ti
mul a teear lya dopt ionofne wi nnova ti
onsbes i
deswor dofmout ha ndr elated
feedbac ke fec tst hatde pendont hes izeoft hea dopt erpopul ation.Thes einc l
ude
advertisi
ng,medi are por t
s ,anddi r e
cts al
ese fforts.
FrankBas s( 1969)devel ope damodelf ort hedi ffusionofi nnova tionst hat
overcomest hes tartuppr obl em.TheBa ssdi ffus i
onmodelhasbe comeoneoft he
mos tpopul armode lsf ornew pr oduc tgrowt ha ndi swi del yus edi nma rke t
ing,
st
rategy, ma na geme ntoft echnol ogy, andot he rfie l
ds .Bas ssol vedt hestart
uppr ob1
1em byas suml ngt hatpot entiala dopt ersbe comea wa reoft hei nnova tiont hrough
externali nfor ma tions our ceswhos ema gnitudea ndpe rsuas ivenes sa rer oughl y
constantove rtime.
Theor lglnalBas smode lwa sintroduc edpr i
ma r i
lyasat oolf orf orecas t
lng
salesofne w produc ts,a ndBas sdidnots pe ci
fyt hena tureofthef eedba cksa tthe
ope rati
ona llevel .Thepos iti
vef eedba cki sus ua l
lyi nter
pretedaswor dofmout h
(soc i
ale xpos urea ndimi ta
tion)a ndthee xte
rna lsour cesofa warenessa nda doption
areus ua l
lyi nterpr etedast heef fectofa dve ris
t ing( Figure9- 18Showst hef eedba ck
st
r uctureoft hemode lwi t
ht hisinterpretati
on) .1
1
I
nFi gur e9- 18t het otaladopt i
onr a teisthes um ofa doptlOnSr esul t
ingf rom
wor dofmout h(andi mpl icit
lyot herpos iti
vef eedba cksdr i
venbyt hepopul ati
onof
adopt ersort heins t
all
edba seoft hepr oduc t)anda doptionsresult
ingf rom a dve r -

ti
slnga nda nyot he rext e r
na linf
lue nces .Adopt ionsf r
om wor dofmout ha refor-
mul a t
ede xa ct
lyasi nt hel ogisticinnova tiondi 軌s ionmode l(equa tion( 9-31 )).
Bas sa ssumedt hepr oba bili
tyt hatapot entialadopt erwi lladoptasther esultofe x-
pos uret oagl Vena mountOfadve rtisl
nga l
ldthevol umeofa dve rt
isinga ndot her
exte na
r li nf
luencesea chpe ri
oda r
econs t
ant.The reforetheext ema linflue nces
caus eac ons tant血. actionoft hepot enti
a ladopte rpopul ati
ont oadoptea cht imepe-
ri
od. Henc ethea dopt ionr at
e,AR,i s
AR-Ado
pti
onf
romAd
ver
ti
sl
ng+Ado
pti
onf
rom Wo
rdo
fMo
uth (
9-36)

Ado
ptl
Onf
romAdve
rti
si
ng-a
P (
9137)

1i
Th eor
lglnal
mo de
l,i
nc ont
inuou
stime,wasspec
ifi
edasdA/dt-AR-a P+b PA, whe
re
aandbwe repara
me ter
stobee s
timat
edstat
is
ti
cll
a yfromthedat
ao nsle
a soradopte
rs.Bas
s(1969)
di
dn o
t ex
plici
tl
yd is
cussth
ef e
edbackloopst
ruc
tur
eo ft
hemo delorspe
cif
ywh att
hep r
oce
ssesof
ad
opti
onWe reOPerati
onll
a y,1
nSteadca
ll
ingt
hemi nnova
ti
onandimi t
at
ionOthersref
ertot
hetwo
l
oopsasextern
alan dint
ena
r l i
nfl
uence
so nado
ptl
On .
Themo delwasals
oc r
it
ic
izedforomi
tt
lng
ec
onoica
m n doth
e rvari
abl
esthatafec
thea
t dopt
iondeci
si
onsucha spr
lCeOradver
ti
slnge
ffo
rt
(
seethechall
engesb e
low;seeal
soBa s
s,Kri
shnan,an
dJ a
ln1994).
 Ch
apt
er95
-Sh
ape
dGr
owt
h:Ep
ide
mic
sJn
nov
ati
onDi
ff
us
io
n,a
ndt
heGr
owt
hof
NewP
rod
uct
s333

FIGURE9- 18
TheBas sdif
fusi
on
model
Themode一
i
ncludesan
extern
a一sourceof
awarenessand
adopti
on,usuaHy
i
n t
erpret
edas
theeff
ectof
advert
isi
ng,

Ad
opt
ionf
romWo
rdo
fMo
uth-c
iPA/
N (
9-38
)
whe
retheparamete ra,adve
rtl
Slngefecive
t nes
s,i
sthefra
cti
ona
la dopt
ionrat
e
f
romadver
tis
ing(1/timeperi
od).
Thetwos our
ce sofadopt
iona r
eass
ume dtobei
ndepe
ndent
.Coll
ectl
ngter
ms ,
t
hemodelcanbee xpress
edmor ecompact
lyas
P+c
AR-a iPA/
N (
9-39
)

Whenani nnovatio
ni sint
roduc e
da ndthea dopt
erpopulat
ioni sze
ro,theonly
s
our
ceofa dopt
ionwi l
lbee xterna
linf
luence
ss uchasadver
tlS
lng.Theadvert
isl
ng
e
fectwillbelargestatt
hes ta
rtofthedifusionproce
s sa
nds tea
dil
ydimi ni
shas
t
hepoolofpotenti
aladopte
r sisdepl
eted.

PhaseSpaceof的eBassDi
甘f
usi
onMode目
Liket hel ogl St
icgrowt hmode l, t
heBa ssmode lha stwos t
ocks .
Howe ve r,be cause
P+A -N, Onlyoneoft hes estocksi sindepe nde nt,a ndthemode lisac t
ua llyfirst
l
order.Us ingt hef acttha tP - N - A,e xpr e sse qua t
ion( 9-39)i nt ermsoft he
adopte rpo pulat
ionA.Dr a wt hepha seplotf ort hemode l(ag raphs howi ngt he
adoptionr a teasaf unctionoft hea do pterpopul a t
ion) ADrawt hepha sepl otfort hree
conditions :( i
)a dverti
s i
nge fe cti
ve nessisz e roa nda llado pti
onoc c urst hrough
wo rdofmout h,(i)wor
i dofmout hisz ero(ci-0)a nda lladoptionoc cur sthrough
adve r
tising,a nd( i
ii)botha dvertisi
nga ndwor dofmout hc ontri
butetoa dopt i
on･
Wi thoutus l
ngS imul ation,us ethepha s epl ottos ket
c hthebe haviorove rtime
ofthea dopt erpopul a
tion, potentiala dopterpo pul ation,anda doptionr atef ore ach
ofthet hr eec asesabove. Howdoe sa dvert
lSlnga lterthepol ntatWhi chl oopdom-
inances hif tsfrom posiivet
t one gati
vef e
edba c k?Howdoesa dverti
slnga f
fe c
tt he
timlng,S ymme tr
y,a ndot hera spect soft hedyna mi csc ompa redt ot hel ogl St
ic
mode l?
334 P
art
III Th
eDy
nami
cso
fGr
owt
h

Af t
eryouhavea ns
weredt
hes
equest
ions,buildandsimula
tethemodeltotes
t
yourint
uit
ion.Runthemodelf
ort
hethr
eec a
sesa bove,a
ndtryothercombi
nati
ons
ofparameter
stoexplor
ethera
ngeofbe
ha vi
orsthemode lcangenera
te.

9.
3.4 Behavi
oroft
heBassMode一
TheBa ssmode ls olve st hes ta rtuppr obl e m oft hel ogi st
ici nnova tiondi f fusi
on
mode lbe ca uset hea dopt ionr atef rom a dve rti
singdoe snotde pe ndont hea do pter
popul a tion. Whe nt hei nnova tiono rne wpr oduc ti sint roduc ed,t hea dopt lOnr ate
c ons istse nt i
r elyofpe o plewhol e ane da boutt hei nnova t
ionf rome xterna lsour ces
ofi nf o-a tions ucha sa dve rt
ising. Ast hepoolofpot e
nt iala dopt ersde c line swhi le
thea dopt erpo pula ti
ong r ows ,thec ont r ibut i
onofa dve rtisingt Othet ota la dopt i
on
ra tefa llswhi let hec ont ribut ionofwor dofmout hr ises. Soon, wo rdofmout hdom-
ina tes,a ndt hedi ml Sionpr oc esspl a ysouta sint hel ogl Sticdi 乱s ionmode l.
Asa ne xa mpl e,c ons ide ra ga int heVAX ll / 750s alesda ta( Figur e9- 1 4).To
mode lt heVAXpr oduc tl ifec yc lewi tht hel ogi sticdi ffus ionmode li twa sne ces-
sa ryt os tartt hes imul atio na ftert hepr oduc twa si ntroduc ed,S ot ha tt he rewa sa
nonz er oi ns talledba se. Ac los el ooka tFi gure9- 15S howst ha tt hepur el oglStic
mode lunde restima tess ale sdur ingt hef irs tye ara ndaha l
f, andove re st
ima tess ales
att hepea k,c ons istentwi tht hehypot hes istha ti nitia
la do ptlOnSWe reS timul at
e d
notbywo rdofmout ho rothe rpos itivef ee dba cksbutbye xtena
r lsour ce sofa wa re-
nes ss uc ha sma rke t
inge ffor t.Fi gur e91 19C ompa rest hebe havi oroft heBa ss
mode ltot hel ogl Sticdi ffus ionmode landt heVAXs alesda ta. Asi nt hes imul ati
on
oft hel ogl Sticmode l,thet otalpopul a ti
onNi sa ss ume dt obe7600uni ts.Adve rt
is-
1nge fe c ti
ve nes s,a, andthenumbe rofc ont a
c t
sr e sultingl na dopt 10 nf romwor dof
mout h, c i,we ree stima t
edbyr egr es siont obe0. 01 1pe rye ara nd1 .33pe rye ar,re-
spe ctive ly.Thec ont ri
but ionofs a l
e sf rom a dve rtisingt Otot als alesi ss ma llafter
thef irs tye ar,a sse eni nthebot tompa ne lofFi gur e9- 19.Ne ve rt
he le s
s ,thi smod-
es tcha ngei nt hef ee dba cks truc tureoft hedi 軌l Si onpr oc e ssimpr ove st hemode l's
abi li
tyt of itthes al
esda ta ,bot hi nt hef irs t2ye arsa nda tt hepe a k. Mos timpor t
ant,
thei nc lus ionoft hea dve rtlSlnge f
f ec ts ol vest hes tartuppr obl em oft hel oglStic
mode l.
TheBa ssmode li sas igni fica nta ndus efule xte nsionoft heba sicl oglStic
mode lofi nnova t
iondi 軌s ion･Themode lits
e lf,orva riantsofi t,i sbr oa dl ya p-
plic ablet oawi der angeofdi ffus iona ndgr owt hphe nome na,a ndt herei sal a
rge
li
t eratur ea ppl yi ngt heBa ssmode la ndr e latedmode lst oi nnova t
io nd i軌s iona nd
sle
a sofne wpr oduc ts( see ,e.g. ,Ma ha j
a n, Mul ler,a ndBa ss1 990a ndPa rke r1 994
forr evi e ws ).

Cr
岳t蔓
qui
ngt
heBassDi
ff
usi
onModel
Eve nthoughtheBa ssmode loftenworkswe ll
, t
hemode li
nvokesanumbe rofre-
stri
cti
vea ss
umptlOnS .Lis
ta sma nyassumptionsOft heBas
smode lasyoucan.In-
cludea ss
umptlOnSe xplici
tint heformulat
ionoft hemode la
nda ss
umpt l
OnSthat
areonlyimplici
t,espe ci
all
yt hoseconcer
nlnga ggregat
iona
ndthemode lboundary
(part
icula
rlyeff
ectsa ndfeedba cksomitt
edfromt hemode l
).
 Ch
apt
er9 S
ISh
ape
dGr
owt
h:Ep
ide
ic
m s
,In
nov
ati
onDi
fus
io
n,a
ndt
heGr
owt
hof
NewP
rod
uct
s335

FIGURE9 -19 8000

ノ
ミ
〇
TheBass

二 喜l
∴
こ
p
＼
andl ogisti
c 6000
di
ffusionmodel s
L
ogi
st
i S
cMo s
sMo
de.
'
compar edto の
actua一 VAXsales t
≡ 4000
=1 Cu
mul
at
iv
eSa
les

2000

0
1981 1983 1984 1986 1988

i
. 2000
(
q
>
･
l
i
=
:
F
u
)
d
J

.
t
=⊂
000000

⊃ 1000

1983 1984 1986 1988

2
J
t
a2^
[S
lE
un

･l

Ex
ten
din
g帥eBa
ssMode一
Asnot eda bove,theBas smode lassumesthetotalsizeofthema rket(t
otalpopul
a
-

tion,N)i scons t
ant Jnge ner a
l,thepopulat
ionofac ommuni tyort henumbe rof
hous e
holdsi nama rketgrowsove rti
met hr
oughbi r
ths,deat
hs,a ndmlgrati
on.In
thecont e
xtofi nnova ti
onswi thve r
yshortli
fecyc les(e.
g.,t
helatestgenerat
ionof
videoga mes )orac utediseasessuchasmeas les
,thea ssumpti
onofc onst
antpopu-
lati
oni sreasonable.Butf orinnovaionsordi
t se
as eswhos el
ifecyc l
esextendover
ma nyyea rs(e.g.
,thedi ff
us i
onofca blet
elevisi
onort heAI DSe pidemic),popul
a-
tiongrowt hcanbes igni
ficant･
336 P
artI
II Th
eDy
nami
cso
fGr
owt
h

A.Re is
v et heBas smode lt oi nc or por at egr owt hi nt hes izeoft he
totalmar ke t.
As sumet het ota lpo pul a tions iz ei sas toc ki nc r
e ase dbyaNe tPopul a t
ion
Increas eRa tet ha ta ggr e ga tesbi rths, de a
ths ,a ndne tmi gra t
ion( itise asy ,but
notne c essa ry,tor epr ese nte xpl ici
tbi rth,de a t
h,a ndne tmi gr at
ionr ates
sepa rately;S eec ha pte r1 2) .TheNe tPo pul ationI nc reas eRa teisgi ve nbyt he
totalpo pul ationa ndt heFr act iona lNe tlnc re aseRa te, whi c hc anbea ssume d
cons tant. Nowyoumus tde cidehowt hei ncr easei npopul ationi spa rti
tione d
betwe e npot e ntia la do pte rsa nda do pter s
. Thes impl esta ssumpt lOni st ha tall
increas esi npopul ations iz ea ddt othepoolofpot ent i
a ladopt e
r s･Re c alli
ng
thata l
lpe opl eorho us ehol dsi nt hepopul ationa r ee ithe rpot entia lora c t
ua l
adopt ers, reformul atethepot e ntiala do pterpo pul ationa sP-N IA･ Eve n
thought hepot e ntiala dopt e rpopul ationi sas tock, itisf ullyde t emi nedby
thetota lpo pul a tiona nda dopt e rpo pul ationa nds oc a nber e prese nteda san
auxiliaryva riabl e.
Appl yyoure xte nde dmode ltot hec abl et elevi sioni nd us t
ry. Theuni t
ofa dopt ionf orc a blet ele vi sioni snott hei ndi vidua l, buthous ehol ds( and
possiblybus ines ses ).Thec abl et elevi si
oni ndus tryi nt heUSbe ga nint he
early1 950S .Att ha ttimet henumbe rofhous ehol dswa sa bout40mi lli
on.
Byt hel a te1 990S ,the r ewe rene arl
y1 00mi llionhous eholds ,ana ve rage
hous ehol df or ma t
iongr owt hr a teofa bo ut1 .9%/ ye ar.Se l
ec tpa rame t
e rsfor
adve rt
islnge fe ctive nes sa ndwor dofmo utht ha ta ppr oxima telyr eplica t
et he
patternofc a blea dopt ion( Fi gur e9- 1 6).Iti snotne ce ssaryt oma tcht heda t
a
exac t
ly;a na ppr oxi ma tef iti ss ufficient ･Ex plor et hes ensitivityOft hemode l
tod ife rentpopul a t
iongr owt hr ates. Wha tist hei mpa ctofva ri abl e
popul ations iz eont hedyna mi cs ?
B.Re spons eoft otl mar
a ke ts i z
etopme e.
Inmos tma rkets,Onlyaf ra ctionoft het otalpopulationwi l
le vera doptane w
inno va t
ion. The丘' ac
tionoft hepopul ationthatmi ghte vera doptt ypl Call
y
de pendsont hebe nefitsoft heinnova tionr ela
tivetoi tscos t(it
spr iceanda ny
othe ra ssociatedcosts,e.g.,s witchingc os ts
,cos t
sofc ompl eme nta rya s
sets
,
trainingc ost
s,e t
c.;se
eRoge rs1995) .Innova t
ionsa renots tati
c:t he i
r
be nef i
tso洗e ni ncreas
eove rt i
mea sr ese a
rcha ndpr oductde velopme ntlead
toi mpr ove me ntsinfeature s, f
unc t
iona l
i t
y,qua l
it
y,a ndot he rattri
but esof
prod uc ta t
tr
a ct
iveness.Si mi larl
y,thepr lCeO fne wpr oduc tsof t
e nf all
s
slgnif i
ca ntl
yove rtimet hr oughl earnlngC urves,scalee c
onomi e s,a ndother
fee dbac ks(Seec hapter1 0) ･Modi fythemode lyo ude velope dinpa r
tAt o
inc l
udet hee fectofpr oduc tprleO
C nf-
hes i
zeoft hepot entiala dopt erpooh
As sumet hepot entia
la do pte rpopula t
ioni saf ract
iono ft het ot
a lpo pulati
on,
lesst hec urrentnumbe rofa dopters:
P=Fr
act
ionWi
ll
ingt
oAdo
pt*N-A (
9-4
0)
where
,ingener
al,t
heFr ct
a onWi
i ll
ingtoAdoptde
pendsontheover
all
at
tr
acive
t nes
softheinnovat
iono
rproduct(
it
sbenef
it
srel
ati
vetocost
s):
Fr
act
io
nWi
ll
ingt
oAdo
pt-i
(In
nova
ti
onAt
tr
act
ive
nes
s) (
9-41
)
Ch
apt
er9 S
-Sh
ape
dGr
owt
h:Ep
ide
mic
s,Ⅰ
nno
vat
i
onDi
軌lS
io
n,a
ndt
heGr
owt
hof
NewP
rod
uct
s337

Toke ept hemode lsimpl e,assumet ha ttheonl yfea t

ur eoft hei nnova tionthat
va ri
e si sth epr l
Ce. As i
mpl eass umpt lOni st hatthede ma ndc ur vefort he
pr oduc tl slinear. Fort hec a s
eofc abl ete l
e visi
on,a ssumet ha tde ma ndi sa
linea rfunc t i
onoft hemont hlyc ost( ignor eins t
allat
ionc harge s)･Si
nc enea rl
y
allUShous eholdsha vet elevision,a ssumet heFr ac ti
onWi llingt oAdo pt
woul dbe1 00% whe nc ablei sf reea ndwoul dfalltoz er oift hec ostwe re
$200 /mont h.
Tbt e stthemode l,a ss
umepr lCei sexoge nous .First,runt hemode lwith
pr ic
ec ons tantata ninitialva l
ueof$1 00/mont h. Tof oc usont hedyna micsof
thepr i
c ee ffecta lone, assumet heFr actiona lNe tInc reaseRa teforthet otal
po pul ationi sz e
r o.Si ncepr lCei sc ons ta
nt ,thetot a
lpopul ations houl dbe
co nstant ,andt hemode lreduc est ot heor lglnalBa s sformul a ti
on.Si mul ate
yourmode ltoche cktha titbe ha vesa ppr opr l
atelywhe nt hepnc eisc ons t
ant.
Nowt e s
tthei mpa ctofva ryingPr ic
e sbya ssumi ngt hepr i
c eOfc able
fallsove rtime. Fi rst,testthee ff ec
tofas udde nd ropl nPr l
Ce, tO,Say,
$25 /mont h. Tryt hepr i
c edr opa tdi fe re
ntpo intsint hedi ffusionl i
fec yc l
e.
C.I
syo
urmo
delr
obus
t?
Typi cally,pnc esf allove rt hel if
ec yc l
eofas uc ces s
fulne wpr oduc tor
innova tion. Butmode lsmus tber obus ta ndbe ha vea ppr oprlat
e l
yunde r
allpot entialc ircums t
anc es, notonl yt hehi storica lore xpe ct
e dbe ha vior.
Ac ommona ndi mpor tantwa yt ot estf orr obus tnes sisthee xtremec ondi -
tionst est(cha pt er21 ).Ina ne xtremec ondi t
ionst est,ani nputt oamode lis
as sume dtos udde nl yta keone xtremeva lues･ Themode lmus tc ontinuet o
be ha vea pp ropr latelye ve ni ft ha text remeva luewi l
lne vera ri
sei nr e al
ity.
Fo re xa mpl e,s udde nlydes troyl nga llinve ntoryl namode lofama nu-
fac turlngf im mus
r tforc ethes hipme ntra teimme diatelyt ozero. Ifs hipme nt
s
donotf a l
ltoz reo, themode ler( andc li
ent )imme diatelyknowt he r
ei saba si
c
la
f wi nt hemode l. Asa ne xtr emec ondi t
io nst estinyourmode l,s udde nly
raiset hepr icet oave ryl argenumbe r( suc ha s$1mi ll
ionpe rmont h)･ If
pr l
C eSWe retOr iset hatmuc h,wha tmus tha ppe nt ot hepot entiala dopt er
po pul ation?Tbt hepopul ationofs ubs cribe r
s ?impl eme ntthepr lC erisea t
va riouspo lntSi nt hel i
fT
ec yc le. Doe syourmode lbe ha vea ppropr lately?Wha t
probl e morpr oble msa rer evea ledbyt het est?Pr o pose,impl eme nt,andt est
revl sionst hatc orrecta nypr obl emsyoui de ntify.
D｡Interactionofdiffusionandt hele arningC ur ve.
Thepr icesOfma nyne wpr oduc t
sa nds ervicesf allove rti
mea slearnlng,
scaleeconomi es
,a ndot here ff
ectslowe rcostsa nda scompe tt
iionintensifi
es.
Ma kethep roductpr i
c earter.
doge r
10-t
isPa r
tOft hemode lstr
l
LiCt
ureby
incorporat
lngal earnlngC urve.Le aml ngOre xpe r
ie ncecurvesc apturethe
wa ylnWhi chproduc er s
,di s
tri
butors ,andot he rsint hevaluec hainlearnto
producea tlowerc ostsast heyga l
ne xperienc e.Us ua l
lycostsarea ssumed
tofallascumul a
tivee xpe rie
ncewi tht hepr oduc tors er
vicegrows ･I n
ama nufa c
turl
ngS ettl
ng, Cumul ati
vee xperi
e nc ei sus uall
ypr oxiedby
cumul at
iveproduc ti
on. Inas ervicei ndustry,c umul ati
vee xperiencemi ght
bette
rber eprese
nte da sde pendingont hec umul ativen umbe roft ransact
ions
3
38 P
arHI T
t h
eDy
nami
cso
fGr
owt
h

andwi lldependont hea dopterpopulationa ndt henumbe roft r

a nsact
ions
eacha doptergenerat
espe rtimepe r
iod. Typic al
ly,uni
tc ostsfal
lbyaf ixed
percentagewithe ver
ydoubl i
ngofe xper i
enc e.Costreduc t
ionso fl o啄 to
30% pe rdoubli
ngofc umula t
iveexperienc eha vebeendoc ume ntedi nawi de
rangeofi ndust
ries(se
e ,
e･g"Te pli
tz1 991 ;Gr uber1992; Argotea ndEppl e
1990)･ Toincor
por a
teal earningcurveint oyouri nnovationdiffusionmode l,
fi
rstassumet hatanyc ostreducti
onsa refullypa ssedint
opr i
ce:
Pr
ice-I
nit
ial
Pri
ce*Ef
fec
tofLe
arn
lngO
nPr
ice

Cu
mul
at
iveEx
per
ien
ce
Ef
fec
tofLe
arn
lngO
nPr
ice-

Cumu
lat
iveEx
per
ien
ce-I
NTEGRAL(Ado
pti
onRat
e,
I
nit
ia
lCumula
ti
veEx
peri
enc
e)
Thee xpone ntcde t
e rmi ne shows trongt hel ea rningC urvei sa nds houl d
bene ga ti
ve( cos tsfalla sc umul a tivee xpe r i
enc egr ows ) .Tbr epr es
e nta
leaml ngC urvei nwhi c hc ostsf a ll30% f ore achdoubl i
ngofe xpe rienc e,
setc-l og2 (0.7)- -0. 51.12
Te s tyourmode lf orahypot he ticalma nuf act
ur ingf irmt ha tintroduc esa
newc ons ume rdur ablepr oduc tint heye ar2000. Thepr oduc tha shighma r
ket
potent ial. Sett hef ollowl ngpa rame ters :As sumet ha tloo鞄 oft het ota l
popul a t
ionof1 00mi lli
onho us ehol dswi l
lpur cha set hepr oduc tifiti sf ree
butt ha tde ma ndf allstoz eroi ft hepr icei s$2500pe runi t.Se ttheini ti
a l
pri
c et o$2000 /
ni
u t,ands eti nitiale xpe riencet o1 0mi llionuni ts(rele
f c ing
t
leani ngga i
ne donpr iorpr oduc tsa ndpr ototype s). Re s
e arc honc ons ume r
durabl ess howst ypi calpr oduc tlifec yc l
e sla s
tfrom a boutaye artoa slong
as20ye a rsormor e( Pa rker1 994) ,de pe ndingont hec os t,be ne fi
ts,size,
tr
ialabi lit
y,nove lt
y,a ndot he ra tt
r ibute soft hepr oduc t,a longwi t
ht her ol eof
compl eme nta rya ssetsa ndot he ri nfr astructure( comput e rsar en'tva luabl e
withouts oftwa re;at e levisioni sus elesswi t
houtpr ogr amml ngpe oplewa ntto
wa t
c ha ndne two r
ksorc ableope ra torstodi st
ribut eit)AToca pturet her a nge,
definet hef ollowi ngt wos cena riosf ort hedi ffusionoft hepr oduc t:aSl ow
scena rio, inwhi c hthepr oduc toft hec onta ctratea nda dopt ionf ractio n( ci)
is1.0/ye ar,andaFas tsc ena rio, inwhi cht hepr oduc toft hec ont ac
tr atea nd
adopt ionf ractionc ii s3. 0/ye ar.As sumef orbot hs c ena
ri ost ha t1% oft he
potent iala dopt e rpoolwi l
lpur cha s ea st her esultofa dve rtisi
ngpe rye ar.

12
Foralear
ningCur
veWh e
rec
ost
sCfal
lbyafi
xedf
rac
ti
onp
erd
oub
li
ngo
fex
per
ie
nceE,
cos
ts
a
reglV
enby
C-Co (E/Eo
)C.
WhenEh a
sd ou
b l
ed,c
ostsh a
vef
anenb
yafrac
ti
onf,s
o
(1- f
)Co-Co (
2Eo
侶 o)c

Or
c-ln(
1-f )
/ln
(2)-1og21-f
( )A
Forale
arni
ngCu
rVeit
w hf-0 .
30,
C-0 .
514
6.Sincef
,thefr
act
io
nalc
ostr
educ
ti
onperdou
bli
ng
ofexp
eri
ence
,hasamorein
tui
ti
veme a
nln
gthantheex
ponentc,
iti
scon
veni
entt
ofo
rmu l
at
ecin
t
h emode
lasacompute
dconst
ant
,C -ln1I f
( )n
n(2)andth
enspec
if
ytheco
str
educ
ti
o nf
rac
ti
onf
asacons
ta
nt.
Ch
apt
er9 S
-Sh
ape
dGr
owt
h:Ep
ide
mic
s,I
nno
vat
i
onDi
fus
io
n,a
ndt
heGr
owt
hof
NewP
rod
uct
s33
9

Be fbrer unnl ngyourmode l,dr awac ausaldiagr ams howi ngt hef ee dba ck
structurecre atedbyt hel earni
ngC urveandhowi tint er
a ctswi tht hes tructure
ofdi fus on.Wi
i thouts imul ati
on ,sketchthedyna mi csyo ue xpe ctforthe
fracti
onoft hema rketwi lli
ngtoa dopt,t
hepot entia
la do pterpo pulati
on,
adopt ionrate ,anda dopte rpopul at
ion.Alsoske t
c hthepa t
hofr evenue syou
expe ct.Assumet hepr oduc tispur chased,notleased,a ndi gnor erevenue s
thatma yder ivef rom s aleo fse
r vicesora f
ter
ma rketpr oduc tstot hea do pters
(revenuede pe ndsonl yont hea dopt i
onr at
eandpr i
c e)･
Af terske tchingt hedyna micsyoue xpect,runthemode lf orbot ht heFa s
t
andSl ow ca ses .Des cribet hedyna mics,andc ompa retoyouri ntui
tivees ti
-
ma tes.Expe rime ntwih di
t fe r
ents tr
engthsforthel earningC urver elat
ivet ot he
difus ionpr oc ess .Howdodi ff
us ionproc e
ssesa ndl eani
r ngC urvesi nte ra
c tto
determl net hegr owt hofane w pr oduct?Wha ta r
et hei mpl icationsofve ry
rapiddi 仇l Sionf orr eve nues,c apacit
ypl anning,a ndnew pr oduc tde velop-
me nt?Wha ti mpl i
c at
ionsf orstrategy(prici
ng,c apa ci
tya c quis i
tion,a ndma r
-
keting)doyoudr a
w?

9.
3.5 FadandFashi
on:
Mode軸 g竜
heAbamd⑳mmem昔o菅anE
FW⑳Va竜
iom
TheBa ssdi ffus i
onmode lisa na logoust ot heSImode lofc hroni ci nfe ction. Eve ry-
onee ve ntua llya dopt st hepr oduc ta nda dopt ersne ve ra bandont hei nnova t
ionor
discont inueus eoft hepr oduc t.The sea s sumpt 10nSa rea ppr o
pr iatef ors omei nno-
vationsbutdonota ppl yt ot hehugec ate goryoff ashionsa ndf ads ･
Af ad, byde finition, invol ve st hete mpor arya dopt i
onofane wi de ao rproduc t
,
followe dbyi tsa bandonme nt .I naf ad,t hosewhoa dopts oone rorl ater( usua lly
soone r)di scontinuet he i
rus eoft hepr oduc ta ndnol onge rge ne ratewor dofmout h
thatmi ghtl ea dt ofur the ra dopt ion. Thoug hma nyba byboome rswor eNe hruja ck-
etso rgr a nnydr essesi nt he1 960S , polye sterl e
isures ui t
so rr ainbow- col oredpl at-
forms hoesi nt he1 970S ,a ndpowe rsui tswi thye llowt i
esors houl de rpa dsint he
198 0S,f ewa r es eenwe arlngt he mt oda y･13Fa da ndf ashiona r eofc our sec om on
inthea ppa r
e lind ustrybuta l s
oa ris einne arlye veryot he rdoma i
n, fromhomef ur-
nishings , vac ationde stina ti
ons , cuis i
nes ,a ut
omobi les, andi nve stme nt stos tylesi n
thea rtsa ndmus i
c,a c ade mi ct he o riesint hes cience sandhuma nities ,a ndho tne w
buz zwor dsa ndg urusi nc or por ates t
rategy , o
r ganizationa lthe ory,a ndma nageme nt
cons ulting.
TheBa ssmode lc annotc a ptur ethedyna mi csoff adsi npa rtbe c aus ea dopt ers
neve rdi sc ontinuet he irus eoft hei nnova t
ion. Fur t
he r,be caus ethec ont actra t
ea nd
adopt ionf ractiona rec ons t
a nt,t hee arl
i esta dopter sareJ us ta Slike lyt oi nf ectpo-
tentiala dopt ersa sthos ewhoj us tpur c ha sedt hepr oduc t･Forma nyI nnova tions
(notonl yf ads ),howe ve r, pe opl e'spr ope ns it
yt oge ne ratewor dofmout h, andt heir
enthus ias ma ndpe r
s ua sive ne ss ,va ryove rt i
me. Us ually, wor dofmout hde c a
ysa s
peopl ebe comeha bitua te dt ot hei nnova ti
on･ Thos ewhoha ver ece ntlye mbr ace da

1
3Thef
ash
ioni
ndu
str
yfre
quen
tl
yrei
nt
ro
duce
sol
dfa
shi
ons
ITh
efas
hio
nsoft
he70swer
e
r
ecy
cle
dint
helat
e90S
,in
clu
din
gp l
at
fo
rmsho
esan
dbel
l
bot
toms
,bu
tth
ankf
ull
yno
tp o
lye
st
er
l
ei
sur
esui
ts
.
34
0 Pa
rtI
II Th
eDy
nami
cso
fGr
owt
h

ne wi de ao rpur cha sedane wi tema remuc hmor el ike lyt ot a lka bouti tt hant hos e
whoha vel ongs incea do pt edt hei nnova tione ve ni fthe yc ont inuet ous ei t.Indoor
plumbi ngc a nha rdlybec ons ide redapa s slngf a d, ye tpe opl edonotr ushoutt ote l
l
he
t irf riendshowwonde rfulflus ht oi l
e tsa re.
Int he1 980sSe l
c howa ndRi ght ers oldt ensofmi ll
ionsofc o pleSOft hega me
Tr ivia lPur s uit .Sa lesboome da sTr ivia lPur sui tbe ca meoneoft hehot testpr oduc ts
int het oya ndga mema rke t.Theboom wa sf edl arge lybywor dofmout ha nds o-
c i
a le xpos urea spe opl epl aye dita tt hehome soft he irfr iends .Af teraf ewyea rs,
howe ve r,sa less l
umpe d. Muc hoft hede clinec a nbea ttribut edt ot hef a mi l
iarma r-
ke ts atur ationl oop:t hega mewa ss os uc ce ssfult hec ompa nyde pl ete dt hepoolof
pe opl ewhoha dnotye tpur c ha sedac opy. Butt hef adingnove ltyoft hega mewa s
als oaf ac t
or . Thepopul ationofa dopt ersi ss til
ll a rgei nt hes e nset ha tma nype opl e
stillownac opyo fTr i
vi alPur suit. Howe ve r,mos toft hes ec opl e Sa rei na t
t i
csa nd
clos ets .Thepo pul a
tionofa ctivea dopt e rs, thos ewhos tillpl a yt hega mea ndge n-
era tewo rdofmout hc ont a c
tswi thot he rs, iss ma ll.
Di sc ont inua t
i onofus ea ndt hede c ayofwor dofmout hc ane a silybei nc orpo-
rate di nt hei nnova t
iondi fus
f ionf ra me wor kbydi sa ggre ga tlngt hea do pt erpopul a-
tioni nt odi ffe rentc a t
e gorie s,e ac hr epr e se ntlngdi fe rentde gr eesofus ea nd
pr ope ns iti
e st oge ne ratewor dofmout h. Thes impl este xt ens ionoft hemode list o
divi det het ot ala dopt erpopul ati
oni ntot woc a tegor i
es ,Ac tiveAdopt e r
sa ndFor -
me rAdo pte rs. Thed iscont i
nua ti
onr ate( ther atea twhi cha ctivea do pter sbe come
for me ra do pt ers )de pe ndsont hea ve ra gedur ationofus ef ort hei nnova t
ion( the
simpl esta s sumpt ioni stha tt hedi sc ont inua ti
onr atei saf irs t
- orde rpr oc es s).Wor d
ofmout ha ndhe nc ethea dopt ionr atewoul dbege ne rate donl ybyt hepopul at
ion
ofa ctivea dopt ers .
Ther evi se dmode li sa na logoust ot heSI Re pi de mi cmode l.Nowonl ya ct
ive
adopt ers( ana logo ust ot hei nfec tiouspopul ation)ge ne ra tewor dofmout ht ha t
mi ghti nduc ea ddi ti
ona la dopt ion. For me ra do pt ersa rea na logoust ot hepopul at
ion
ofr e cove r
e di ndi vidua ls.Ha vingpur c ha se dt hepr oduc tbutnol onge ra c ti
ve lyus -
1ngi t,t hef or
me ra dopt ersa renol onge ri nf ec tioust oot he r sa nda rea lsoi mmune
tor e infe ction-e xpos ur et oa dve r tlSlngOrWOr dofmout hf rom a ctivea dopt ers
won' ti nduc ea gingba byboome rst obuya not he rle isures uit･14
Theke yi ns i
g htf rom t heSI Re pi de i cmo
m de li st hec onc eptoft het l
PPl ng
pol nt: ex pos ur et Oi nfec t
iousi ndi vidua lswi llnotpr oduc ea ne pide mi ci fpe oplere -
cove ra ndde ve lopI mmuni t
yf a s
te rt ha nt he yc a ni nfe ctot he r s.Si mi larly,ne wi n-
nova tionsmi ghtf ailt ot akehol de ve ni ft he yge ne rat
epos it
ivewor dofmout h
be caus ea c tivea dopt ersdi scont inueus a gef as t
e rt ha nt he ype rs ua deot he rst o
adopt .Thoughadi stresslngl yl argenumbe rofbi z arref a shionsa ndus elesspr od-
uc tsa ree mbr ac edbyea ge rc ons ume rswhomi ndl es sl
ya llowma rke terst oma nlp-
ula t
et he i
rtas tes ,manymo r
ef ailt ot akehol d.
Int heSI Rmodel,t het ippl ngpoi nti sdefi ne dbyar epr oduc tionr ateofone.
Ther e produc tio nrat ei sthenumbe rofne wc asesg ene ratedbye a chi nf ec ti
vepr i
or

14
Asint
heext
ende
dSIRmo del
sd e
vel
op e
dinse
ctl
On9･
2,t
hepo
pula
ti
onofad
opt
erscoul
dbe
d
isag
gre
gat
edfu
rt
her,
fore
x a
mp l
e,i
ntocohor
tsofp
eopl
ewhoado
pte
dthei
nnova
ti
on1,2,...,
n
t
imeper
iod
sago
,tocap
tur
esitu
ati
onswhereth
econt
actr
at
eanda
dopt
10
nfra
cti
onde
caygradua
ll
y
r
ath
erth
aninaf
ir
st-
ord
erpat
ter
n(chapt
er12).
Ch
apt
er9 S
-Sh
ape
dGr
owt
h:Ep
ide
ics
m ,I
nno
vat
i
onDi
fus
io
n,ndt
a heGr
owt
hof
NewP
rod
uct
s341

torecover
ya ndisdef
inedbyt heproductofthecont ac
tnumbe r(t
henumbe rofin-
fect
iouscontact
sgener
atedbye achinfec
tivepri
ort orecovery)a
ndthepr obabil
ity
ofcontact
ingas us
cepti
bleindivi
dual(equati
on(9- 26))
.Us i
ngtheter
mi nologyof
theinnovati
ondi 軌sionf r
ame work,ther e
produc ti
onr at
ei st
heproduc tofthe
numbe rofpe r
suas
ivewor dofmout hc ontact
sge nerate
dbye a
cha c
tivea dopter
prl
OrtOdisconti
nuat
ionandt heprobabil
it
yofe ncounterlngapotent
ialadopter:

c
i
d
(;
),1 (
9-
45,
whe r
eci st hec ontac trate,ii sthea dopt ionf r
a ct
ion,di sthea veragedur ationof
ac t
iveusef ort hei nnova ti
on, Pi sthepopul ati
onofpot entia
la dopters ,andNi sthe
totalpopul ati
on･
Ifther epr oduc tionr atei sgr eat
e rt ha none,t hepos i
ti
vewor dofmout hf eed-
ba ckdomi natest hes ystema ndaf adi sbor n･Thef ade ndswhe nt hepoolofpo-
tentialadopt ersf all
se nought obr ingt her eproduc t
ionr atebe low one･I ft he
reproductionr a teisle sstha none, t
hepos itivewo r dofmout hloo pisdo mi na tedby
thene gativef eed ba c
ksa ndt herewi llbenoe pidemi cofa doption.
Howe ve r
,u nliket heSI Rmode l,a dopt ioni nt heBa s
si nnova tiond iffusion
frame worka lsoa r
isesf rom a dve rtl
Slnga ndot he re xter
nalinfluenc es.Int hes i
m-
pleBa s
smode lthee fe cti
ve nessofa dve r t
lS l
ngl Sac onst
ant, i
mpl yingt ha tthea d-
ve rt
lSl
ngbudge tisc onstantt hrought ime.Eve nwhe nthes yst
emi sbe low t he
tippingpoi nt,e ve r
yo newi l
le vent uallya doptt hei nnova t
ion( thoughi tma yt akea
ve rylongt ime )i
Inther ealwor l
d,a dve rtis
lngl Se xpe nsivea nddoesnotpe rsistinde 丘ni tely.
Thema rke ti
ngpl anf ormos tne wpr oduc tsi nclude sac ert
aina mo untf oraki ckof f
adc ampa igna ndot he riniti
alma rketinge for t
s･Ifthepr oduc tissucc essful,furthe r
adve rt
lSl
ngCa nbes uppor t
edo utoft her eve nuest hepr oduc tgene rates･I f
,how-
eve r,t
hepr oduc tdoe snott akeof f
, t
hema rke t
ingbudge tissoone xha us t
e da nde x-
ternalsour ceso fa dopt l
Onf all
.Adve rtlSlngl Snote XOge nOuS, aSintheBa ssmode l,
buti spartoft hef ee dbac kstruc t
ur eoft hes ys t
em. The r
eisat lPPlngPOl ntf ori dea s
andne wpr oduc tsnol e
s sthanf ordi se ases .

Modeh gF
:ads
A.Modi f
ytheBa ssmode l(Oryo urextensionsofitde velopedins ect
ion9･ 3･4)by
disaggregatl
ngt hea do pterpopul ati
oni ntoa ct
ivea doptersa ndforme ra do pte
r s･
As s
umewor do fmo uthi sonlyge nerat
edbya cti
veado pters.Cali
brateyourmode l
torepre s
entaf ad.As sumet hetotalpopulationis100mi lli
onho useholds ,t
ha tthe
averagedur ati
onofa ctiveus eis1ye ar,andt hat1%o fthepot e
ntialado pterswi l
l
adopta sther e
sulto fadve rtlS
lnge achye ar
･ Assumeac ontactrateof1 00pe rpe r
-
sonpe rye a
r.Ru nthemode lforthreecases:as t
rongwo r
dofmo uthc as
ewhe rethe
adoptionfracti
oni s0.025, ani nt
eme
r di
a t
ec asewhe r
et hea dopti
onf r
actioni s0.01,
andawe akc asewhe r
et hea doptionfracti
oni sO･001.Cont rastt
hebe havi orofthe
mode li ntheth r
e ec ases,How doe sthei nc l
usionofa dopt ionfrom a dver t
isi
ng
causet hebe havioroft hemode ltodifferfrom thepur eSI Rmode l?Ca naf i
rm
compe ns a
teforwe a
kwo rdofmo uthbyama ss
iveadve rti
singC a
mpa ign?
342 P
ar H Th
tI eDy
nami
cso
fGr
owt
h

B.Howd omosto r
ga nizat
ionsse ttheiradve
rti
si
ngbudgets?Dr awac a
usaldi
al
gr
amt hatca
pturesyou runde rs
tandingoft hewaylnWhi chadve rt
isl
ngisdeter
mined.Whatfeedbackl oopsa r
ec rea t
edbythetypi
c a
lbudg e
tingpr oces
s?How
mightt
heyaff
ectthedyna mi c
sofa do pti
on?Howmi ghtsu
cha na dvert
lS
lngPOli
cy
af
fectt
henatur
eo fthetippingPO i
n tforadopt
ionofanewpr oduc t
?
C･Wha tot
herproc
ess
esandinf
ormati
onsource
smightc
ontri
butetothedynam-
ic
so faf
ad?Devel
opacausa
ldia
g r
amc a
ptur
ingyou
ridea
s･Wha taddi
tiona
lfeed-
backloo
psarecr
eat
ed?Howmi ghtt
heyaff
ectt
hedynamics
?Gi veexamples.

93.
6 Repl
. acemeniPur
ehaseも
TheBa ssdi ffus i
onmode li sof tende scribe da saf i
rst-pur cha semode lbe c aus ei t
do e sno tc apt u resitua tionswhe rethepr od uc tisc o ns ume d,d iscarde d,o rupg ra de d,
a llo fwhi chl e adt or epe atpur cha ses.
Onepo pul arwa yt omod e lrepe atpur cha sebe hav iori stoa s
s umet ha ta do pte rs
mo veba cki ntot hepo pula tionofpot ent iala d opt erswhe nt he ir丘r stuni ti sdi s-
c ard e dorc ons ume d. Ther atea twhi cht hepr o duc ti sd iscar deda ndt he refo re血e
ra tea twhi c hpe opl emovef rom t hea dopt e rpo pul ationt ot hepoo lofpo tent ial
a do pt er
sd epe ndso nt henumbe rofa do pter sa ndt hea ve ragel ifeo ft hepr oduc t
(Fi g ure9- 2 0) .Mode lingr e pla ceme ntd ema ndi nthi sf ashio nisa nalogoust ot he
los so fimmun ltyt Oadi s e
a se･ Now, inste ado ff allingt oz ero,hepot
t ent iala do pte r
po pul at
ioni sc onst antlyr eple nishe da sa do pte rsd isca rdt hep rod ucta ndr eent ert he
ma rke t(Fi gu re9- 21 )
. Thea do ptionr ate( salesr a t
ef o rapr od uct)r ises, pe aks ,a nd
fa ll
st oar atet ha td epe ndso nt hea ve ragel ifeo fthepr o duc ta ndthepa r ame tersd e -
te rmi ningt hea do ptionr ate. Di scardsme a nt he rei sa lwa yss omef rac t
ionoft he
po pu lat
ioni nt hepo tentilc
a us tome rpool .Byva rylngt hepr od uc tlifea nds treng th
o ft hewo r dofmo ut hf e e
d ba ck,ther ateofd i
ffus io n,i nc l
ud ingt hehe i
ghtoft he
sa lespe aka ndt hed ept ho ft hebus twhe nt hema rke tsa turates ,
c anbeva rie d. The
mo d elsho wni nFi g ure91 20a ssume saf i
r st
10 rd erd isca rdpr oc essbutc a ne a sil
ybe
mo d ifie
dt or epr ese nta nyd istri
but ionofdi sc ardsa rou ndt hea ve r
a gepr odu c tlife
us inghi ghe r-o rderd e
l ays( cha pte r1 1).
Be causet hos ed isc ardingt hepr oduc tr ee ntert hepot e ntialcus tome rpool ,the y
ar et re a
tede xa c t
lyl ike丘r st-timebuye r sa ndmus tgot hr oug ha nothe rpr oc e sso f
be co ml nga wa reOfa ndbe ingpe rs
ua de dt obuyt hepr od uc tthr ougha dve rtlSlngO r
wo rdo fmo ut h. Ins omec a sest hel if
e ti
meo fthepr oduc tiss ol onga ndt hea ttri-
but e so fthepr od uc tc ha nges omuc ho ve rthi ss pa nt hatpr l
O re xperienc ei sl arge ly
irrel evanta ndr epe atpur cha sede c i
sionsa rer ea sona b lys i
mi lart oi nitialpur -
cha s ed ecisio ns .Bu Hbrmos t prod uc t
s, t
hec us tome rha sa lr
e adyma det hede c isi
o n
toc o nti
nueus lngt hepr oduc ta nds impl ypu rcha se sane wone･ Ins uc hc ase st he
initia landr epe atpu rcha s
ede ci
s i
onsmus tber e pre sente ds epa rately,a ss ho wni n
Fi gu re91 2 2.He ret hea dopt ionpr oces si ss epa ra tedf ro mt heno wofpur cha se s.
Thet otals alesr atei sthes umo finitialpur c ha se sa ndr e pe atpur cha ses. Ther epe at
pur c ha s
er a tei sthepr od uc to fthenumbe ro fa do pt ersa ndt hea ve ragenumbe ro f
uni tspu r
c ha sedbye a
c ha do pt erpe rtimepe rio d. Fi gure9- 23s howst ypl C almo de l
be ha v io
r.
 Cha
pte
r9 S-
Sha
pedGr
owt
h:Epi
demi
cs,
Inno
vat
ionDi
軌lS
ion,
al-
dth
eGr
owt
hofNe
wPr
oduc
ts343

GURE9-
FI 20
Model
ingpr
oduct
di
scar
dand
repl
acement
purchases
Customersdi
scar
d
t
heproductwit
ha
t
imeconstant
gl
venbyt he
AveragePr oduct
Li
fe,thenretum
t
ot hePotential
erPool
Adopt ･

GURE9
FI -21
uo!

Behavioroft
he
Ie一d

Bassmodel wit
h
no

di
scardsand
d一

repur
chases
(
t
2

0
5
%)
101-

Showsthebehav-
OuO!

i
orofthemodel
2
5

i
nFi e9-
gur 20
10t2m

wit
hanAver age
0
J

ProductLi
fe
l- 5y s,
ear
4 5 6
a-0.
01,
C- 100,
andi-0,
025.
salt
()｡a
2
∝P
^ru
O!
Jt
=3S!
tt?
l
ndodl
C

4
0
BPu
eu
t
=7
0〓0% )
O!

2
0
tdop v

3 4 5 6
Year
s
344 Pa
rtI
II Th
eDy
nami
cso
fGr
owt
h

FIGURE9･ 22
Model i
ngrepeat 7 sad
' esRat
e雪
purchases [ni
li
al esi
Sal fniti
'
al R;peat L h e竺讐 :
一軒.
-
.Consumpti
on
Total saf
esconsi st perAdopt
er Purchase Purchase perAdopt
er
Rate Rate
ofiniti
aland
repeatpur chases･
Eachpot enti
a一
adopt erbuysI ni
tial
SalesperAdopt er
unitswhent hey
fi
rstadoptt he
produc tand
continuest o
purchaseatt he
rateofAver age
Consumpt i
onper
Adopt erthereaft
er .

FIGURE9- 23
Behaviorofthe
repeatpurchase
model
Behaviorofmodel 言d
Oi
;I
t,
ti
r
a
i J ★■
†十I
t★+ c♂ ＼A
.
p
かd
卯F
oy
.I
,
eps
inFigure9- 22, Adopt
i e
onRat .
プ 汐++ +
,

Withthesame
paramet ersasi n
Figure9- 21anda
tot
alpopul ati
onof
100mi ll
i
on,i nit
ial
2 3 4 5 6
purchasesof Ye
ars
1unitperper son,
andr epl
acement
purchasesof
0.2unitsper
Tt23

PersonPeryea｢ ･
^
al
JS
t2
t
正 Sal
!unu
t
O! u
ZS
H
!
)

0 1 2
Ch
apt
er9 S
ISh
ape
dGr
owt
h:Ep
ide
ic
m s
,I
nno
vat
i
onDi
fus
io
n,a
ndt
heGr
owt
hof
NewP
rod
uct
s34
5

Model
声ngt
heLi
feCycl
eofDur
abi
ePr
oduct
s
Themode linFi gur e9- 22doe snote xplicitlyr epre sentt hes t
oc kofpr oduc the ldby
thea dopterpo pul ation. Re pe atpur cha s
e sa remode leda sde pe ndi ngont hec urrent
adopt erpopul ation.Thi sf ormul ationi sa ppr oprlatef ornondur a blec ons uma bles
suc ha sfood,whe ret hel ifetimeoft hepr oduc ti sve rys hor tr e
la tivet ot hedi ffu-
sionpr ocessa ndt hea c
qul S l
tlOna ndc ons umpt lOnOrdi sc ar doft hepr oduc tdonot
ne edt ober epr ese nte dse pa r
a tely･ Ford ura blepr oduc ts ,howe ver ,itisus ua llyIm-
po rtanttor epr es entt hes toc ko fpr oduc tandt hedi sca rdr a tee xpl icit
ly･
Modi fyt hemode lshowni nFi g ur e9- 22t or epr es entt hea do ptiona ndi ns t
all
e d
ba seofac ons u me rdur abl es uc ha svi deoc a s
s et
ter e cor de rs( VCRs ).Yo uma yus e
eithe rthes i
mpl eBa ssfo rmul a t
ionort hee xtende dmode lyoude ve lope di ns ecti
on
9.3.4i nc l
udi ngt hee ffectofpr lCeOnt hes izeoft hema rke tandt hel e arni ngC urve
(whe nVCRswe rei ntroduc ed, t
hea ve ragepr icewa sa bout$2000 /
uni t, butbyt he
1990st hea ve ra gepr iceha df all
e nt o$200/ uni t)･
Thedi sc ardr a tef ordur a
bl epr oduc tsisof tens t
r ongl ya gede pe nde ntandi snot
we lla pproxi ma tedbyaf irst10rde rpr oce ss･Tomode lthei ns tal
l edba seofVCRs ,
crea tetwos toc ks ,Ne wVCRsa ndOl dVCRs .Thes tockofnewVCRsi si nc reas
e d
byt hePur cha seRa te.AsVCRsa ge,t he ymovei nt ot hes t
oc kofol dVCRs ･As -
sumet hea ve rageVCRre ma insne wf or3ye arsa ndt ha tthea gi ngr at
ei saf ir
st-
orde rpr oc ess.Thoughs omene w VCRsdobr eakdowna nda r edi sc ar ded,f or
simpl i
c i
tya ssu met hedi sc ar
dr ateofne wVCRsi sz ero･ As sumet hea ve ra gelife-
timeofol dVCRsi s5ye a rs,glVl ngat otala ve ragel ifeof8ye ars ･
Wha tde termi nest hepur cha ser ate?Fi rst,hous ehol dst ha tha vea dopt edthe
VCRwi llsee kt or epl acet hos et ha tbr eakdowna nda redi sca rded( ordi sc a rdaus -
ableuni ttobuyane wonewi thbe tterf eatur es)･Se cond, thos eho use holdswi llbuy
mor etha nthedi sca rdr atewhe nt henumbe rofVCRst he yc oll
e ctive lyde si
ree x一
cce dst henumbe rthe ya ctua llyha ve( andwi llbuyl es st ha nt hedi scardr ates houl d
he
t yf i
ndt heyha vemo ret hant he yde s i
re). Thepur c ha ser atei sthe nt hes umoft he
disc ardr at
ea nda na djustme ntf ori ns talledba se. Thea dj ustme ntf ort hei ns t
all
e d
ba sei smos ts impl yf om ul ate da sas impl ef i
r s
t-or de rne ga t
ivef eedba ckpr oc ess:
(
Desi
redVCRs-To t
alVCRs
)
Ad
jus
tme
ntf
orI
nst
al
le
dBa
se (
9-46
)
St
ockAdjus
tme
ntTime
whe r
et het otalnumbe rofVCRsi sthes umoft hene wa ndoldVCRs t
ocks ,andthe
StockAd justme ntTi mer epresentsthea veraget imer equiredforpe opletos hopfor
andpur c haseaVCR･ Definet hede siredst
oc kofVCRsa sdependingont henum-
berofhous eholdstha thavea doptedt heVCRa ndt hea veragenumbe rofVCRsde -
sir
edpe rhous ehold.Thec ha l
lenget oe xtendt heBa ssmode lins ect
ion9･ 3･4
int
roduc e dthenot iont hatthef racti
onoft hepo pul a
tionwi ll
ingtoa doptt heprod-
uctde pe ndsoni t
sove ra
lla tt
ractiveness,includi ngpr lCe･Thegr owthofma r
ke t
s
forma nyi mpo r
t a
ntPr oduc tsinvolve sbothapr oc es
sofa dopti
onbya ninc rea
slng
fract
ionoft hepo pul at
ionandagr adua li
nc r
ea sei nthenumbe rofuni tsowne dby
eachhous eholda sr ealprlCeSf a
lla nda shouse hol dincomer i
ses･Whe nt heywe re
fir
stintroduc ed,hous eholds" ma dedo"wi t
hj ustonec ar,phone,TV, andc omput er
･
Aspr lCeSf ell
,qua l
ityr ose,andt hei mportanceoft hesepr oductsindailylifegrew ,
346 Pa
rtHI TheDyn
ami
cso
fGr
owt
h

thenumbe rpe rho use holdg rew. Bye xpl i

c it
lyr epr ese ntlngt henumbe rofuni t sde -
siredpe ra do pte rthemode lca nr epr es ents it
ua tionswhe rea dopt ersi nc rease山e
numbe rofuni tsthe yde sirea st he i
ri nc omegr ows , aspr lCede cl
ine s,ora sothe ra t-
tri
but esofpr oduc ta ttractive nes si mpr ove. Fornow,a ssumet henumbe rofVCRs
de si
redbye a cha do pterhous ehol di sone.
Not et hati ft hede sireds toc kofVCRsi nc r
ea sesa bovet hea ctua ls t
ock( say
be causepr icesf alls omo rea dopt inghous ehol dsde cidet obuyas econdVCR) ,the
pur c
ha ser atewi l
lr is ea bovet hedi sc ardr atea ndt hes toc kwi lli nc reaseunt il
thega pl SC l
os ed. Shoul dt hede s i
reds tockofVCRsf a l
l, t
hepur cha ser atewi l lfall
be l
owt hedi scar dr atea ndt hes toc kofVCRswi llgr adua llyf all
.
Tes tt her obus tne ssofyourf ormul ationf ort hepur c ha s
er ate.I mpl e
me nta n
extremec ondi tionst estinwhi cht hedes i
r eds tockofVCRss udde nlyf all
stoz ero
froma ni nitials it
ua tio ninwhi cht hedes i
r eda nda ctua ls t
oc ksa ree qua la ndl a r
ge.
Modi f
yyourf or mul ationf ort hepur c ha sera tetoe ns uret ha titbe ha ve sappr opr 1-
atelye ve ni fthe rea r ema nymor eVCRst ha ndes ired.
VCRsf ort hehomema rketwe rei ntroduc edbySonyl n1 975.Byt heea r
ly
1990sa ppr oxi ma t
e l
y8 0%ofUShous ehol dsha da tle astoneVCR. Se lectpa ra me -
tersforyourmode ltha ta rer oughl ycons istentwi tht hes eda t
a.Us eyourj udgme nt
toes t
ima tetheot he rpa rame t
e rss ucha st hes tocka dj ustme ntti
me･ Fors impl icity,
assumet het ot alnumbe rofhous ehol dsi nt heUSi s1 00mi ll
iona ndc ons tant.Si m-
ulatethemode la nddi scus st her e sults. Inpa rticul ar,wha tisthepa tternofa dop-
ti
on?Wha ti sthepa tt
e rnofs a l
es ?
Sinc et hei nt roduc t
ionoft heVCRt hea ver agedur a ti
onofpr oduc tlifec yc l
e s
forcons ume re le ctroni cs,Comput ers ,andma nyot he rpr od uc t
sha ss hrun k. Lifec y
-

clesof jus taf ewye a rso re ve nl essa rec ommon. Simul atet hemode la ssumingt he
wor dofmo uthf eedba cki st hreet i
mesa ss tronga stheva lueyous e lectedf orthe
VCRc ase_ Howl o ngdoe sitnowt akef or80%ofhous ehol dstoa do ptt hepr oduc t ?
Wha taret hei mpl icationsf ors a l
e s?Why?Wha tdi fficultiesdos hor tpr oduc tl i
fe
cyclespos ef o rf i
rms ?

9.
4 SuMMAPY
S-Shapedg rowtha r
isesthroughthenonl ine arint eract
ionofpos itivea ndne gati
ve
feedbackloo ps.Anygr owlngqua ntlyc
t anbet houghtofa sapo pul ationgr owlng
ina necologl Ca
lnichewi thac e
rtainc arrylngC apaClty.S-Shapedgr owtha ris
es
whe nthec a
r r
yingCaPaC l
tyi sf
ixeda ndwhe nt her earenos lgni
fica ntde la
ysi nthe
react
ionoft hepopulation'sgrowthr at
ea st hec arrylngC apaClt
yl Sa ppr oac
he d.
Thestruc t
ureunder l
ylngS- s
ha pedgr owt ha ppl l
eSt OaWi der a ngeolgr owth
processe
s,notonl ypopulationgrowt h.
The seinc ludethea doptlOna ndd肝us ionof
newi deas,t
heg r
owthofde mandf orne wpr oduc ts,t
hes preado finf orma t
ioni na
communl ty,a ndthespreadofdi seases,inc ludingbi ologlCalpathoge nsandc om-
putervir
use s.