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(Robeco Sam Methodology), MSCI (MSCI ESG Research) and FTSE Russell. Kaushal Ladha, CFA
The SETHI Index has 63 corporates, 21 of them are included in the Dow (66) 2658 5000 ext 1392
Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI), 42 are in the MSCI and 29 companies
Kaushal.l@maybank-ke.co.th
have been ranked in S&P’s The Sustainability Yearbook 2021 putting
Thailand in the 7th spot globally behind the US, Japan, South Korea, the
UK, France and Taiwan. Our first Thai Green Day showcased eight
companies that have high stature in both the DJSI and MSCI: ADVANC, EA, SET performance
(x)
GPSC, HMPRO, PTTGC, SCC, DTAC and TU. SCC, PTTGC and TU made it to 25 23.6x
S&P’s Gold Class category (news here). 23 +2SD: 22.5x
21
+1SD: 19.2x
Overall operating outlook is improving 19
17 Mean: 15.8x
SCC and PTTGC are riding the crest of petrochem spreads thanks to 15
climate disruption in the US (polar vortex min Feb-21) and recovery in 13
-1SD: 12.5x
11 -2SD: 9.2x
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-11
Jan-20
Jan-21
uptick for its services. We expect these three to see sequential
improvement in operating outlook, especially when Thailand re-opens its SET - Fwd PE
borders. EA remains focused on RE and is making significant strides in EV. Share price performance
Thailand has just disclosed its ambitious plan to be an EV manufacturing 70
2020 YTD MTD
%
hub in southeast Asia. 60
60
50
ESG should be highlighted in corporate presentations 40
40
Sustainalytics ranks TU and SCC as having high ESG risks but with 30 23
with home improvement retailer HMPRO, while mobile phone operators -30
ADVANC EA GPSC HMPRO PTTGC SCC DTAC TU SET index
ADVANC and DTAC are rated medium risk. This lack of coherent outcomes
from various methodologies argue that there is value for bringing up ESG Source: Maybank Kim Eng
in management’s conversations with investors.
THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK KIM ENG SECURITIES (THAILAND) PCL
SEE PAGE 37 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Corporate Day
Table of Contents
Highlights ................................................................................................................................... 3
Companies
Definition of terms
SET – Stock Exchange of Thailand
ESG – Environment, Social and Governance
RE – renewable energy
EV – electric vehicle
KPI – Key Performance Indicator
AIS – is the brand name of ADVANC’ services derived from Advanced Info
Service
IoT – Internet of things
EEC – Eastern Economic Corridor
GHG – greenhouse gas
SBU – strategic business unit
MwHr – megawatt hour
CO2 – carbon dioxide
SPP – Small Power Producer
Ft – fuel transfer
IU – industrial user
Highlights
The SET actively promotes companies participating in international efforts to
encourage sustainability and ESG. Its commitment plays a critical role in the
adoption of ESG principles among companies in Thailand.
Fig 1: SET’s actively pushes the ESG agenda in DJSI… … and MSCI; TH has the highest number of
constituents in the MSCI Standard Index
ESG tracker Sustainalytics indicates that the majority of the companies fall into
the medium-risk profile. Surprisingly, our small sample of eight corporates that
attended the Thai Green Corp Day also exhibits the same risk distribution as that
of Sustainalytics.
Fig 2: Sustainalytics universe distribution –risk profile Fig 3: Thai Green Corp participants – distribution
Sustainalytics Methodology
Scores Rating
0-10 Negligible risk
10-20 Low risk
20-30 Medium risk
30-40 High risk
Negative momentum Risk is coming down
Source: Sustainalytics
TU is the first Thai corporate that has tapped SLL, the newest category in
Sustainable Financing. SLL differs from other Sustainable Finance schemes
because it is linked to a set of KPIs and has built in additional incentives that
matter to the corporates’ value creation. We expect more to follow and this
avenue will help advance ESG agenda especially when it becomes embed into
financial planning.
Fig 5: Sustainable Finance - increased considerably in 2020 driven by Sustainability Bonds, Green Bonds, Social Bonds and
Sustainability Linked Loans
Presenters:
Ms Nattiya Poapongsakorn- Head of IR & Compliance
Mr.Wacharapong Leethochawalit, Investor Relations Manager
Ms.Yada Keeratipongpakdee - IR Specialist
Rating: BUY
Current price: THB173.5
Target price: THB234.0
Key Takeaways:
Operating guidance for 2021 maintained at low single digit growth in service
revenues and EBITDA, a recovery from the 5.1% drop in service revenues (-6.5% in
mobile) and 2.1% decline in EBITDA due to network investment. The 2021 capex
plan ranges from THB25-30b, lower than the THB35b spent in 2020. Investment
will focus on enhancing 4G experience and building out 5G that paced according
to emergence of case use. At the end of 2020, ADVANC had 41.4m mobile phone
subscribers, 239k are in 5G. The 5G subscribers generate close to THB600/mth
ARPU, 10-15% higher than post-paid ARPU but this was too small to lift the
overall ARPU that by 4Q20 posted 9.4% YoY decline in postpaid and 11% YoY fall
in prepaid. Blended ARPU including the 239k 5G subscribers was THB234/mth,
down 6.8% YoY.
5G is the focus in 2021. By the end of Feb-21, the 5G subs base reached 400k
and ADVANC is confident that it can reach the 1.0m subscriber target by the end
of the year. As of Dec-20 it already had 5,400 cell sites and has achieved 95%
coverage in the EEC area, a critical KPI tied to the spectrum payment conditions
for the 2600Mz. All things equal and assuming that 5G ARPU is about
THB600/mth, this has the potential to raise blended ARPU by 4%. The user case
for 5G remains narrow and mostly in product/services that are already well-
served by 4G and 4.5G. However, AIS will continue to nurture high-ARPU
customers that are looking for faster services and enhanced AR/VR experience
and pick regions that are of high potential. For example, after the EEC, AIS is not
densifying 5G in Khon Kaen province, one of the important provinces in the
northeast.
Digital innovation has been identified as the most material variable to both
ADVANC stakeholders and operations. Cyber wellness and online safety, the
aspect identified as most visible and important social factor is ranked 5th in the
materiality index – more of a reputational risk. Digital innovation, however, is
tied to its ability to be an effective enabler of economic change and add value. It
has well-laid out processes to incubate new ideas and applications under the AIS
Open Innovation framework. As of 2020 it had 80 partners that between them
have launched 39 new products. ADVANC hopes to add on THB500m of revenues
from the digital innovation efforts by 2023, up from THB76m in 2020.
Cyber security and data privacy is the second most material factor to ADVANC.
With the enactment of the Private Data Protection Act, it will step up to become
a leading provider of cyber security services and cyber security operation center
for enterprise customers. Data protection is a fairly new concept in Thailand and
corporates have to invest not only for the hardware but also for the processes,
and AIS intends to become the service provider of choice when it comes to cyber
security.
Source: Company
Core net profit 31,190 27,434 28,624 30,601 31,428 210 140
Core EPS (THB) 10.49 9.23 9.63 10.29 10.57 200 130
Core EPS growth (%) 5.1 (12.0) 4.3 6.9 2.7 190 120
Net DPS (THB) 7.34 6.92 6.71 7.17 7.37 180 110
Core P/E (x) 20.3 19.1 18.0 16.9 16.4 170 100
P/BV (x) 9.1 6.9 6.2 5.5 4.9 160 90
Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20
Net dividend yield (%) 3.4 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.2
ROAE (%) 49.2 37.9 36.0 34.4 31.6 ADVANC - (LHS, THB) ADVANC / Stock Exchange of Thai Index - (RHS, %)
Rating: BUY
Current price: THB60.75
Target price: THB47.50
Key Takeaways:
Focus on hybrid wind and solar projects. EA’s renewable capacity has surged
from 8MW to 644MW in the past few years, focused on wind and solar projects in
Thailand. Management guided that conventional renewable projects no longer
meet their internal hurdle rate of double digits, therefore they see opportunity
in hybrid wind and solar projects, a combination of storage and other generation
sources to mitigate the intermittent nature of renewables. EA has not set any
renewable targets, however they are open to explore interesting opportunities
on a project-by-project basis.
Bottleneck for energy storage system is rare earth metals. China accounts for
the vast majority of rare-earth production worldwide. The next 2 big producers
are the US and Australia. Management has guided that there should be no
concerns on sourcing the necessary metals to support current capacity targets.
However, once EA scales up its production, it will enter long-term contracts to
secure supply. From a sustainability perspective, although rare earth metals are
essential to a wide array of green technologies, common risks revolving around
production of these earth metals is illegal mining, labour violation and worker
security issues, etc.
Fig 11: EA has transitioned from a power producer to energy Fig 12: Next phase of growth for EA will be in building its
services energy system ecosystem
ROAE (%) 28.5 20.3 21.0 18.5 15.5 Energy Absolute - (LHS, THB)
Energy Absolute / Stock Exchange of Thai Index - (RHS, %)
ROAA (%) 9.2 6.9 8.3 8.6 8.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.1 24.1 25.2 24.5 24.9 -1M -3M -12M
Net gearing (%) (incl perps) 128.3 135.4 100.5 76.4 58.1 Absolute (%) (3) 35 81
Consensus net profit - - 6,258 7,211 9,475
Relative to index (%) (8) 27 26
MKE vs. Consensus (%) - - 2.1 (8.2) (32.9)
Source: FactSet
Source: Company; Maybank
Material S issues
511 employees, of which 24% are female
Average training hours has increased YoY, from
8.62hrs/y/person in 2017 to 11.66hrs/y/person in 2019. The
target is 12hrs/y/person.
In 2019, 8 employees were under the Executive program for
future leaders.
In 2019, there were zero work accidents and zero
occupational illness.
In 2015, an operating unit has been created named “EASE” or
EA Social Enterprise to contribute to the society on
sustainable self-reliance. There are three themes:
consumers, farmers and earth. In 2019, the project sent
higher volume of organic products to the market consisting of
vegetables and rice of more than 10.5 tons, +23% YoY. Under
the program, the average farmer income increased to
THB373/day, +9% YoY and 18% higher than minimum daily
wage.
No community complaints in 2019.
Presenters:
Mr. Thitipong Jurapornsiridee, CFO
Mrs. Sirobon Boontaworn- SVP, Corporate Finance
Rating: BUY
Current price: THB76.0
Target price: THB100.0
Key Takeaways:
Fuel mix in the future – GPSC’s fuel mix stands at 67% gas, 16% coal, 11%
renewable and 5% petroleum pitch. Management shared going forward it will no
longer be investing in coal-based projects. In terms of future growth, it will be
largely focused on gas projects (replacement projects) and renewables (solar +
wind). replacement for SPP whose power purchase agreement has matured– Glow
Energy Phase 2 (192MW) will COD in 4Q22. GPSC targets renewable capacity at
30% by 2025 from the current 11-12%.
Axxiva M&A – GPSC acquired 11% of China-based Anhui Axxiva New Energy
Technology for THB500m. Proceeds will be used to fund phase 1 of Axxiva’s semi-
solid battery (24M) manufacturing plant with a production capacity of 1GW. COD
is expected in 2Q22. Axxiva has a secure off-taker, China’s EV car manufacturer,
Chery. The venture is beneficial for both as Axxiva can leverage on GPSC’s
experience in its 30MwHr battery pilot project (COD in 2Q21), while GPSC can
gain exposure to China’s EV market and raw material procurement. Management
highlighted that it’s not looking at energy storage system as a standalone
business but as a part of the overall energy ecosystem that it wants to capture.
Gas and coal outlook – Management guided that FY21 gas prices on average will
be 8-9% lower YoY, while coal prices will be slightly higher. Gas prices bottomed
in 4Q20 at THB215/mmbtu and are expected to continue to remain low in 1H21,
albeit slightly higher. Margins on its IU segment (SPP based) will improve YoY as
drop in Ft prices (-0.1243 THB/KwHr) have lagged that of gas prices. There is risk
gas prices rise faster than expected in 2H21 as crude surges; 4Q20 onwards has
beat expectations (gas lags crude 6-12months). Higher coal prices will not have
an impact as it falls under a cost-pass through mechanism under the IPP scheme.
Management has guided it will continue to evaluate the merits of securing a LNG
shipping licence given volatility in prices.
Fig 16: GPSC targets to raise renewables to 30% of its fuel mix Fig 17: GPSC is looking at battery manufacturing within a
by 2025 broader context of energy solutions
Source: Company
Source: Company
Source: Company
P/BV (x) 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 Global Power - (LHS, THB)
Global Power / Stock Exchange of Thai Index - (RHS, %)
Net dividend yield (%) 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.7 2.7
ROAA (%) 2.4 3.0 3.2 3.7 3.7 -1M -3M -12M
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.2 13.7 13.7 12.5 12.0 Absolute (%) 1 12 38
Net gearing (%) (incl perps) 74.7 67.0 57.1 51.4 44.6
Relative to index (%) (4) 6 (5)
Consensus net profit - - 8,561 9,135 9,944
MKE vs. Consensus (%) - - (3.4) 6.3 (2.2) Source: FactSet
Presenters:
Ms. Wannee Juntamongkol, Executive Vice President
Mr. Rakpong Aroonwatdhana, Senior Vice President
Rating: BUY
Current price: THB14.6
Target price: THB15.7
Key Takeaways:
Operations have shown signs of improvement QTD with the 14 Mega Home
chain leading. However, for the 95 HomePro store chain including 9 of the
HomePro S, most product categories are still showing sales decline but in low
single digit. Affordability is the main drag, especially in stores that are located in
the tourism destinations. HMPRO’s management expects sequential improvement
as the year unfolds and with favourable base effect is confident it can achieve
same store sales growth on par or slightly lower than GDP. In 2020, HomePro’s
same store sales contracted 8.5% YoY and the worst dip was in 2Q of -17% YoY.
The Mega Home chain was performing better, ending the year with slightly
positive sales growth.
Gross margin enhancement of 20-30bps is top priority for 2021. In 2020, the
flow of the higher margin private label goods (mainly imported) was disrupted by
Covid-19 lockdowns and subsequent shortage of containers slowing shipment
further. As for now shortage of containers still remains but to a lesser degree and
HMPRO is planning to source more of the products internally. Improvement in
merchandise flow and increase in private label merchandise volume is expected
to enhance margin.
Overseas expansion continues and one more store will be opened in Malaysia
bringing the total number of stores to seven. Thanks to government stimulus, the
HomePro stores in Malaysia are outperforming their Thai counterparts and the
chain is getting close to P&L breakeven. It is possible that Malaysia stores will hit
breakeven this year. HMPRO will enter Vietnam this year when travel is allowed.
For now, the plan is to launch an online store focusing on Thai products that are
popular among the Vietnamese consumers, mainly in the softline segment. This
tentative entry will allow HMPRO to understand the market better before getting
into operations of physical stores.
Eco Product is the lynch pin for its ESG agenda. The aim is to become a retailer
of environmental friendly home improvement products. HMPRO has established
criteria to qualify as Eco Products including factors such as water use, electricity
consumption, biodegradable and natural materials etc. Eco Products are slightly
more expensive but also allows for higher mark ups as the quality is high.
Fig 21: HMPRO materiality matrix Fig 22: Progress at the end of 2020
Source: Company
Source: Company
Source: HMPRO
Presenters:
Miss Pattaralada Sa-Ngasang, EVP, Finance and Accounting
Mr.Jittasak Soonthornpan, VP, Corporate Finance & Investor Relations
Mrs. Savanit Boonyasuwan Srilerdfah, VP, Sustainability Strategy & Management
Mr. Natthakorn Kraikul, Manager, Sustainability Strategy
Rating: BUY
Current price: THB63.00
Target price: THB75.0
Key Takeaways:
Improved outlook – Management shared a benign outlook for its portfolio. GRM
recovery will continue as Covid19 impact eases. For HDPE, they see strong
demand for packaging and electrical appliances as economies recover and expect
stronger spreads YoY. For PX, they highlight massive new PTA supply coming
online in China, which will increase demand for PX and support margins. Phenol
margins will remain strong on robust sanitizer demand, however 2021 outlook
will be softer as new capacity comes online.
Transitioning from single use plastic – Governments across the region are
placing bans on single-use plastic, most notably China early last year. PTTGC is in
process of transitioning away from single-use plastic production and targets 0
production in the next 3 years. As of now, single-use plastic accounts for 4-5% of
PTTGC’s production capacity, but PTTGC has been able to partially divert the
line to the construction sector. PTTGC’s partnership with US-based Naturework is
a step in exploring bioplastic, however the economics of these projects remain
weak, which may limit scale.
Fig 26: Management has guided improved outlook for its Fig 27: PTTGC’s ESG journey
olefin segment (accounts for 50% of its EBITDA)
Source: Company
Source: Company
Source: Company
Rating: BUY
Current price: THB395.0
Target price: THB430.0
Key Takeaways:
Growth comes from capacity and efficiency gains. The debottlenecking of Mab
Ta Phut olefin cracker in Dec lifts volume capacity by 10% and raises plant
efficiency. In the case of ConsMat continued cost savings measures are
retrofitting will also drive efficiency gains while in the Packaging efficiency gains
will be brought about by the T-model of integration (horizontal and new
verticals). Capex outlay for this year is set at THB65-75b, higher than in 2020
(THB58.3b) as the greenfield petrochemical plant in Long San, Vietnam is nearing
completion (about 75% currently). This plant will raise SCC’s overall petrochem
capacity by 53% to 8m tonnes in 1H23 when the plant hits the optimal utilization
rate. SCC’s capex outlay will drop back to the normal range of THB40-50b once
the petrochemical plant in Vietnam is completed.
The SCC group’s business has very high carbon footprint. Aside from coming up
with high-value and environmental friendly products that are targeted to account
for 67% of revenues by 2030, the group has to come up with new processes to
create more carbon offsets. In petrochem this means increased recycling and it is
now testing chemical-based recycling that creates polymer that have qualities on
par with virgin plastics. The technology is patented and will be rolled out by late
this year or early next year. The most extractive business in the portfolio is the
ConsMat division, especially cement in which it is the largest in Thailand in terms
of capacity. Generating carbon offset via reforestation cannot get SCC to its net
zero goal by 2050. Currently, the cement refractories are being retrofitted to
produce the more environmental friendly hydraulic cement and eliminate the use
of coal in the clinkering process by 2050. Recycling waste heat to produce power
reduces electricity use from grid. In the planning stage is carbon sequestration
directly from the cement operations. The Packaging division is an intensive user
of water and SCC actively treats and recycles water to use in cooling broilers and
machinery to help the group achieve 23% water withdrawal reduction by 2023.
Given technological advances in material science coupled with its very active
R&D programmes, SCC now has more options to pursue a more aggressive ESG
agenda.
Source: Company
Net dividend yield (%) 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.0 Siam Cement - (LHS, THB)
ROAE (%) 11.8 12.6 12.7 11.9 10.7 Siam Cement / Stock Exchange of Thai Index - (RHS, %)
ROAA (%) 5.4 5.8 6.2 5.9 5.4 -1M -3M -12M
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.1 10.0 10.6 10.8 11.0
Net gearing (%) (incl perps) 55.9 48.0 48.7 48.8 46.9 Absolute (%) 8 4 22
Consensus net profit - - 37,477 38,424 41,028 Relative to index (%) 3 (2) (15)
MKE vs. Consensus (%) - - 6.1 2.6 (8.5) Source: FactSet
Source: Company, Maybank Kim Eng
Rating: BUY
Current price: THB32.75
Target price: THB47.0
Key Takeaways:
Guidance of low single digit drop in revenues and EBITDA now looking too
conservative. DTAC reports that operating conditions have begun to improve in
February indicating that growth in 2021 revenue and margin is possible. While
price competition is still intense it now occurs in some areas where consumers
are still optimizing household expenses. Improvement in economic activity (and
income) can help ease the intensity of competition.
Digital drive to keep customers. In 2020 growth in the DTAC app users rose 40%
and in the provincial areas growth was 70%. DTAC now has the highest data usage
among mobile service providers at 20GB per subscriber per month. As a result, it
also leads the industry in terms of postpaid ARPU. The strategy to achieve high
ARPU is to consistently deliver enhanced customer experience, fast speed and
offer services that are viable to its subscribers. Data analytics is important and
DTAC has been able to classify its users into four categories: 1) the new rurals; 2)
the remote deskers; 3) the non-stop streamers; and 4) critical users. Each group
focuses on different service criteria and it is up to DTAC to meet them and
hopefully encourage use and drive ARPU. DTAC will leverage its app to encourage
use of services and enhance its mind share among user thus helping drive
subscriber acquisition. Part of its sustainability agenda is to help small
entrepreneurs, targeting those in the 40% lowest income group, to enhance their
earnings power through the use of internet and online tools. The program aims to
help DTAC business users to improve income by at least 15%.
Closing the gap in 5G. Unlike competitors, DTAC did not acquire 5G spectrums
aggressively in the 2020 auction as spectrum costs were deemed expensive. To
continue delivering quality services it boosted its 2300MHz network with massive
MIMO transforming making its mid-band spectrum to quasi 5G. DTAC already
received the 700MHz and this will be used to expand coverage and boost 5G
capabilities augmenting its 26GHz spectrum (high band). By 2Q21, DTAC will
already have closed the 5G gap with its competitor.
Data privacy and cyber safety is also high in the sustainability agenda. The
Personal Data Protection Act (PDPA) has just been enacted in Thailand and
specific (supporting) regulations are starting to follow. PDPA will impose extra
cost to users in terms of hardware and processes and DTAC aims to showcase its
strong network and stringent data protection control to convince users especially
enterprise to use their services. Protection from cyberbullying is a social agenda
that DTAC considers important. To this end, it conducts yearly training involving
over 100,000 teenagers to recognize and identify to become effective in helping
others from becoming victims.
Fig 38: DTAC’s financial summary Fig 37: Goals in waste management
Fig 38: DTAC’s financial summary Fig 39: Share price performance
FYE Dec (THB m) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E 65.0 140
Core net profit 5,422 5,107 5,508 6,162 6,801 50.0 110
Core EPS (THB) 2.29 2.16 2.33 2.60 2.87 45.0 100
40.0 90
Core EPS growth (%) nm (5.8) 7.8 11.9 10.4
35.0 80
Net DPS (THB) 2.87 2.99 1.57 1.65 1.73
30.0 70
Core P/E (x) 23.3 15.4 14.1 12.6 11.4
25.0 60
P/BV (x) 5.1 3.2 3.4 3.1 2.8 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20
Net dividend yield (%) 5.4 9.0 4.8 5.0 5.3 Total Access C. - (LHS, THB)
Total Access C. / Stock Exchange of Thai Index - (RHS, %)
ROAE (%) 23.1 20.7 23.5 25.8 25.6
ROAA (%) 3.4 3.0 3.1 3.5 4.0 -1M -3M -12M
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.9 5.8 5.9 4.9 4.1 Absolute (%) 3 (3) (14)
Net gearing (%) (incl perps) 268.7 333.0 387.4 289.0 202.1
Consensus net profit - - 3,639 3,907 4,417
Relative to index (%) (2) (8) (40)
MKE vs. Consensus (%) - - 51.4 57.7 54.0 Source: FactSet
Rating: HOLD
Current price: THB14.6
Target price: THB14.5
Key Takeaways:
Operating performance expected to moderate from the 2020 high but growth
is still projected, underpinned by 3-5% for sales in THB terms (2THB31/USD) and
gross margin at 17%. Sales of ambient seafood will slow as demand boost from
pantry loading especially at the height of Covid-19 lockdown will fade away but
this will be offset by improvement in seafood sales to the Food Service sector as
restaurants, hotels and catering begin to normalize. The annual price negotiation
with European retailers is taking place (typically occurs during late 1Q-early 2Q)
and there is resistance to raise the tuna product price as household income
remains under pressure but TU will compensate for this by cross selling products,
continue to squeeze more efficiency in the operations and push more value-
added products. Tuna material prices are expected to see some inflation but on
average should stay in the range of USD1,400-1,450/tonne – a very manageable
level management guides..
New product development (NPD) will focus on high value added and this can
be facilitated via continued efforts to add more value to the by-products which is
48% of tuna and push towards to zero waste from the current ratio of 5%. NPD
generates 20-25% margins and its contribution to GM upliftment will become
visible when sales account for 20% of the overall portfolio. Currently this is less
than 5%. TU has committed USD30m to its corporate venture fund that aimed at
nurturing food tech start-ups and drive innovation in the food industry. This is
not yet generating positive contributions but there are a number of promising
ventures, especially in the area of alternative protein and functional nutrition.
Fig 40: Milestones for 2025 Fig 41: Activities for 2021 and beyond
Climate change agenda
*Traceability is the backbone of seafood sustainability. Our products will be traceable from *Setting science-based target in line with ‘towards 1.5 c future’ approach set by Science-Based
capture to final product in order to inform our work programs, our customers and our
*Target Initiative (SBTi) covering all GHG emissions scope (Scopes 1-3)
consumers. Setting comprehensive climate change strategy including decarbonisation and climate risks
management
*By 2025, our branded tuna will be sourced from vessels and suppliers that demonstrate
*Continuing to improve energy efficiency in line with commitment to ‘double energy
Operational Best Practice to prevent IUU fishing and modern slavery. productivity by 2041 from 2016 baseline’ as part of our work with EP100, Climate Group global
initiative on smarter energy
*By 2025, our branded aquaculture products will be responsibly-sourced from farms that meet
Sustainable packaging
internationally recognized Global Seafood Sustainability Initiative (GSSI) benchmarked *Continue to explore our packaging development to meet our goals of ensuring “100% re-
standards or Aquaculture Improvement Projects (AIPS) meeting scientific ratings standards. usable, recyclable or compostable in our branded packaging by 2025” and ensuring “30%
recycled content in our branded packaging by 2025”.
*We will work to ensure safer, cleaner oceans by driving economically viable and sustainable *We will aim to align with the Ellen MacArthur Foundation (EMF), New Plastics Economy Global
solutions to the problem of ghost fishing gear and marine plastic pollution globally. Commitment
Fig 42: 2020 milestones Fig 43: Plans for ethical recruitment platform
Source: Company
Source: Company
Fig 45: TU’s financial summary Fig 46: Share price performance
FYE Dec (THB m) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E 20.0 150
Net dividend yield (%) 5.3 5.3 5.4 6.5 7.7 Thai Union Group - (LHS, THB)
ROAE (%) 8.8 13.8 12.5 13.0 14.8 Thai Union Group / Stock Exchange of Thai Index - (RHS, %)
ROAA (%) 2.5 4.3 4.1 4.4 5.2 -1M -3M -12M
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.8 10.9 11.6 10.8 10.0
Net gearing (%) (incl perps) 133.4 114.1 107.0 95.3 83.7 Absolute (%) 4 8 (5)
Consensus net profit - - 6,104 6,396 6,402 Relative to index (%) (1) 2 (34)
MKE vs. Consensus (%) - - (3.8) 0.2 20.6 Source: FactSet
Research Offices
ECONOMICS REGIONAL EQUITIES SINGAPORE THAILAND
Suhaimi ILIAS Anand PATHMAKANTHAN Thilan WICKRAMASINGHE Head of Research Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research
Chief Economist Head of Regional Equity Research (65) 6231 5840 thilanw@maybank.com Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399
Malaysia | Philippines | Global (603) 2297 8783 • Banking & Finance - Regional Maria.L@maybank-ke.co.th
(603) 2297 8682 anand.pathmakanthan@maybank-ib.com • Consumer • Strategy • Consumer • Materials • Services
suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com
WONG Chew Hann, CA CHUA Su Tye Jesada TECHAHUSDIN, CFA
CHUA Hak Bin Head of ASEAN Equity Research (65) 6231 5842 chuasutye@maybank.com (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395
Regional Thematic Macroeconomist (603) 2297 8686 • REITs - Regional jesada.t@maybank-ke.co.th
(65) 6231 5830 wchewh@maybank-ib.com • Banking & Finance
chuahb@maybank.com LAI Gene Lih, CFA
ONG Seng Yeow (65) 6231 5832 laigenelih@maybank.com Kaushal LADHA, CFA
LEE Ju Ye Research, Technology & Innovation • Technology • Healthcare (66) 2658 6300 ext 1392
Singapore | Thailand | Indonesia (65) 6231 5839 Kaushal.l@maybank-ke.co.th
(65) 6231 5844 ongsengyeow@maybank.com Kareen CHAN • Oil & Gas – Regional
leejuye@maybank.com (65) 6231 5926 kareenchan@maybank.com • Petrochemicals - Regional
MALAYSIA • Transport • Telcos • Utilities
Linda LIU
Singapore | Vietnam | Anand PATHMAKANTHAN Head of Research Eric ONG Vanida GEISLER, CPA
Cambodia | Myanmar | Laos (603) 2297 8783 (65) 6231 5924 ericong@maybank.com (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394
(65) 6231 5847 anand.pathmakanthan@maybank-ib.com • Retail Research Vanida.G@maybank-ke.co.th
lindaliu@maybank.com • Strategy • Property • REITs
Matthew SHIM
Dr Zamros DZULKAFLI Desmond CH’NG, BFP, FCA (65) 6231 5929 Yuwanee PROMMAPORN
(603) 2082 6818 (603) 2297 8680 matthewshim@maybank.com (66) 2658 6300 ext 1393
zamros.d@maybank-ib.com desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com • Retail Research Yuwanee.P @maybank-ke.co.th
• Banking & Finance • Services • Healthcare
Ramesh LANKANATHAN INDIA
(603) 2297 8685 LIAW Thong Jung Ekachai TARAPORNTIP Head of Retail Research
ramesh@maybank-ib.com (603) 2297 8688 tjliaw@maybank-ib.com Jigar SHAH Head of Research (66) 2658 5000 ext 1530
• Oil & Gas Services- Regional (91) 22 4223 2632 jigars@maybank.com Ekachai.t@maybank-ke.co.th
William POH • Automotive • Strategy • Oil & Gas • Automobile • Cement
(603) 2297 8683 Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT
william.poh@maybank-ib.com ONG Chee Ting, CA Neerav DALAL (66) 2658 5000 ext 1470
(603) 2297 8678 ct.ong@maybank-ib.com (91) 22 4223 2606 neerav@maybank.com Surachai.p@maybank-ke.co.th
FX • Plantations - Regional • Software Technology • Telcos • Auto • Conmat • Contractor • Steel
Saktiandi SUPAAT YIN Shao Yang, CPA Kshitiz PRASAD Suttatip PEERASUB
Head of FX Research (603) 2297 8916 samuel.y@maybank-ib.com (91) 22 4223 2607 (66) 2658 5000 ext 1430
(65) 6320 1379 • Gaming – Regional kshitiz@maybank.com suttatip.p@maybank-ke.co.th
saktiandi@maybank.com.sg • Media • Aviation • Banks • Food & Beverage • Commerce
Christopher WONG TAN Chi Wei, CFA Vikram RAMALINGAM Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG
(65) 6320 1347 (603) 2297 8690 chiwei.t@maybank-ib.com (91) 22 4223 2607 (66) 2658 5000 ext 1404
wongkl@maybank.com.sg • Power • Telcos vikram@maybank.com jaroonpan.w@maybank-ke.co.th
• Automobile • Media • Transportation • Small cap
TAN Yanxi WONG Wei Sum, CFA
(65) 6320 1378 (603) 2297 8679 weisum@maybank-ib.com INDONESIA Thanatphat SUKSRICHAVALIT
tanyx@maybank.com.sg • Property Isnaputra ISKANDAR Head of Research (66) 2658 5000 ext 1401
(62) 21 8066 8680 thanaphat.s@maybank-ke.co.th
Fiona LIM LEE Yen Ling isnaputra.iskandar@maybank-ke.co.id • Media • Electronics
(65) 6320 1374 (603) 2297 8691 lee.yl@maybank-ib.com • Strategy • Metals & Mining • Cement
fionalim@maybank.com.sg • Glove • Ports • Shipping • Healthcare • Autos • Consumer • Utility Wijit ARAYAPISIT
• Petrochemicals (66) 2658 5000 ext 1450
STRATEGY Rahmi MARINA wijit.a@maybank-ke.co.th
Kevin WONG (62) 21 8066 8689 • Strategist
Anand PATHMAKANTHAN (603) 2082 6824 kevin.wong@maybank-ib.com rahmi.marina@maybank-ke.co.id
ASEAN • REITs • Technology • Banking & Finance Theerasate PROMPONG
(603) 2297 8783 (66) 2658 5000 ext 1400
anand.pathmakanthan@maybank-ib.com Jade TAM theerasate.p@maybank-ke.co.th
Aurellia SETIABUDI
(603) 2297 8687 jade.tam@maybank-ib.com (62) 21 8066 8691 • Equity Portfolio Strategist
FIXED INCOME • Consumer Staples & Discretionary aurellia.setiabudi@maybank-ke.co.id
• Property Apiwat TAVESIRIVATE
Winson PHOON, ACA Fahmi FARID (66) 2658 5000 ext 1310
(65) 6340 1079 (603) 2297 8676 fahmi.farid@maybank-ib.com Willy GOUTAMA apiwat.t@maybank-ke.co.th
winsonphoon@maybank.com • Software • Chartist and TFEX
(62) 21 8066 8500
willy.goutama@maybank-ke.co.id
SE THO Mun Yi TEE Sze Chiah Head of Retail Research VIETNAM
• Consumer
(603) 2074 7606 (603) 2082 6858 szechiah.t@maybank-ib.com
munyi.st@maybank-ib.com Quan Trong Thanh
Nik Ihsan RAJA ABDULLAH, MSTA, CFTe PHILIPPINES
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8184
(603) 2297 8694 Jacqui De JESUS Head of Research thanh.quan@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
nikmohdihsan.ra@maybank-ib.com (63) 2 8849 8844 • Banks
• Chartist jacquiannekelly.dejesus@maybank-atrke.com
• Strategy • Conglomerates Hoang Huy, CFA
Amirah AZMI (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8181
(603) 2082 8769 amirah.azmi@maybank-ib.com Romel LIBO-ON hoanghuy@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
• Retail Research (63) 2 8849 8844 • Strategy
romel_libo-on@maybank-atrke.com
• Property • Telcos Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8082
Fredrick De GUZMAN chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
(63) 2 8849 8847 • Oil & Gas
fredrickdaniel.deguzman@maybank.com
• Consumer Nguyen Thi Sony Tra Mi
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8084
Bernadine B BAUTISTA mi.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
(63) 2 8849 8847 • Consumer
bernadine.bautista@maybank.com
• Utilities Tyler Manh Dung Nguyen
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8180
Rachelleen RODRIGUEZ, CFA dung.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
(63) 2 8849 8843 • Utilities • Property
rachelleen.rodriguez@maybank.com
• Banking & Finance Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen
Head of Retail Research
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8081
tuyen.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
• Food & Beverage • Oil & Gas • Banking
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Indonesia London
Iwan Atmadjaja Greg Smith
iatmadjaja2@bloomberg.net gsmith@maybank-ke.co.uk
(62) 21 8066 8555 Tel: (44) 207-332-0221
Philippines
Keith Roy
keith_roy@maybank-atrke.com
Tel: (63) 2 848-5288
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