SCENARIO-BASED MAPS USING FLO-2D AND IFSAR-DERIVED DIGITAL

ELEVATION MODELS ON THE NOVEMBER 2006 RAINFALL-INDUCED LAHARS,

MAYON VOLCANO, PHILIPPINES

Francesca Llanes1,2, Peter Khallil Ferrer1,2, Romer Gacusan1,2, Victoriano Realino II1,2, Julius Obrique2, Rodrigo
Narod Eco1,2 and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay1,2
1
National Institute of Geological Sciences, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines
2
Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards, Department of Science and Technology, Quezon City, Philippines
Email: francesca.llanes@nigs.upd.edu.ph

KEY WORDS: Mayon Volcano, Lahar, FLO-2D, IfSAR

ABSTRACT: On 29-30 November 2006, Supertyphoon Durian caused floods and lahars that swept the southern and
eastern flanks of Mount Mayon in southeastern Luzon. The weather station in Legazpi City, located at the base of the
volcano, recorded a total rainfall of 495.8 mm over a period of 36 hours. Heavy and intense rains during the first 18
hours breached six dikes that formed new pathways for the water and debris to flow through. Several communities
downstream were buried in thick volcanic deposits, causing most of the 1,266 fatalities reported.
Pre- and post-disaster SPOT 5 images were used to map the extent of lahars. Affected areas were barangays (villages)
Maipon and Tandarora in Guinobatan municipality, Sua in Camalig municipality, Budiao and Busay in Daraga
municipality, Pawa and Padang in Legaspi City and San Antonio in Sto. Domingo municipality.
Changes in the topography after the event will invariably change the flow dynamics of future floods and lahars. We
used FLO-2D, a two-dimensional numerical modeling software for floods and debris flows, to simulate the lahars
using different rainfall scenarios. Rainfall data from Legazpi City based from 5-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, and
100-year return periods was simulated over 5-meter spatial resolution airborne IfSAR-derived digital terrain model
acquired in 2013, more than six years after the event. The simulations using the 100-year return rainfall had an
accumulated amount of 490.3 mm in a span of 24 hours and was set as the worst-case scenario for the lahar extents.
The hazard maps show possible lahars in some of the old channels as well as new pathways where lahars could flow
in succeeding events. Dikes that were constructed since the 2006 event are part of the topography of the 2013 IfSAR
image and may also have affected the results of the simulation.

1. INTRODUCTION

This paper builds on the work published by Paguican et al. (2009) that investigated the 2006 lahars of Mayon Volcano.
The previous workers utilized post-disaster satellite images and extensive ground mapping to characterize how these
lahars were generated and how the damage it caused can be mitigated in the future. Using the same post-disaster
SPOT 5 image for comparison, the authors of this paper conducted numerical modelling using high-resolution satellite
images to generate detailed lahar hazard maps of the municipalities most heavily affected by the lahars in 2006.

On 29 November 2006, Supertyphoon Durian (Philippine code name Reming) ravaged southeastern Luzon with an
accumulated rainfall of 495.8 mm over a period of 36 hours. Heavy rainfall caused volcanic debris to be remobilized
as lahars down the flanks of Mount Mayon, the damage of which was unprecedented. Communities were displaced,
homes and livelihoods devastated, and 1,266 people were proclaimed dead (Rabonza, 2006). To mitigate damages
from future lahars, Mayon Volcano is used as a case study for simulating lahars on FLO-2D, a flood-routing software
that can also generate debris flow hazard maps. These maps can be utilized by local government units in urban
planning and disaster evacuation. Moreover, this method can be repeated for other volcanoes in the Philippines and
tropical volcanoes worldwide that have experienced rainfall-induced lahars.

1.1 Mount Mayon

Mayon Volcano is one of the three active volcanoes (PHIVOLCS, 2008) located in the tectonically active Bicol
Region, the southernmost landmass of Luzon Island, 330 km southeast of Manila (Arguden, 1990). It is one of the
most active volcanoes in the world and is famous because of its perfect composite cone. Resting at an elevation of
2,469 m from the coast, the volcano is comprised of andesite and basaltic andesite lavas with pyroclastic flow and
lahar deposits in the lower flanks (Rodolfo, 1989).

These lavas makes up most of the volcano, from the summit up to the 500-meter elevation (Punongbayan, 1985).
Pyroclastic flows occur from the crater up to 1,500 m elevation but it is primarily deposited between 500 to 300 m on
debris fans that average 7.5 degrees in slope (Moore and Melson, 1969; Newhall, 1977, 1979). Lahars interchange
with pyroclastic flow deposits from 300 to 200 m and below this elevation, lahar deposition and activity dominate the
flanks.

1.2 Lahars

A lahar is an umbrella term used to describe a volcanogenic debris flow, whether or not the phenomenon primarily
characterized a debris flow or a hyperconcentrated flow (Rodolfo, 1989). Lahars can be triggered during quiescent
periods and at times of volcanic activity, such as during or after an eruption.

In tropical climates like the Philippines, lahars are usually triggered by heavy rainfall that are brought about by
typhoons. These events can occur both during an eruption and long after any signs of volcanic activity has taken place.
Hot lahars are extremely dangerous because heavy rain can carry fresh ejecta into flows that can reach up to the
boiling point of water, such as in Mayon Volcano during the 1968 and 1984 eruptions (Moore and Melson, 1969;
Okkerman, 1985; Arguden, 1986; Rodolfo, 1989). However, "cold" lahars or flows that take place years after a
volcano has erupted can even be more life threatening.

Communities living right below and at the flanks of the volcano are given very little warning before lahars of this
kind take place. During the 2006 Mayon lahars, construction of dikes ten years previously provided a false sense of
security to the communities living downstream. The dikes have since experienced eruptions with the last one
occurring in August 2006 (Paguican, 2009) and these had considerably weakened the man-made structures by the
time Typhoon Reming made its landfall to the province.

From 1984 to 1991, at least 59 rain lahars have been documented to have occurred on Mayon Volcano. The only
documented rainfall-induced lahar after 1991 occurred after the 1993 eruption (Orense, 2007). Lahars triggered by
heavy rainfall are poorly documented because attention to volcanic hazards is mostly concentrated during an eruption,
when financial aid as well as scientists from institutions around the world pour in (Rodolfo, 1991).

Conducting extensive mapping of the channels inundated by lahars can be costly in terms of finances and personnel.
Numerical modeling can complement recent field investigations on site provided that high-resolution satellite images
can be acquired. While numerical modelling techniques are not enough to thoroughly study an area prone to lahars,
complemented with fieldwork data, it can provide detailed lahar hazard maps that can show significant changes in
the morphology of the channels.

2. METHODOLOGY

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IfSAR)-derived images with a spatial resolution of 5 meters were acquired
from the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority to generate high resolution debris flow hazard maps
for the southeastern flanks of Mount Mayon. These maps were generated using a combination of ArcGIS and FLO-
2D. Watersheds that form the municipalities of Santo Domingo, Legazpi, Daraga, Camalig, and Guinobatan were
delineated and selected using ArcGIS. The watersheds were first divided radially and each stretched from the cone of
the volcano up to the coast or low-lying plains. Each slice was further divided into an upper and up to two lower
watersheds. Afterwards, stream shapefiles were exported from the IfSAR image as a guide in selecting areas with
corresponding Manning's coefficients in FLO-2D. The division between upper and lower watersheds can be seen in
Figure 1.

FLO-2D is a flood-routing software used for flood and debris flow hazard maps. This software uses a dynamic-wave
momentum equation and a finite-difference routing scheme (Agdebe, et al., 2013). The digital elevation model was
resampled to 10 meters and the grid size of the area was set to 10 to maintain the resolution of the output hazard maps.
A representative elevation in each grid element was assigned by interpolation. After interpolation and infiltration,
Manning's n-value coefficients were then assigned to each grid element. All upper watersheds were situated in
mountainous and forested areas and were assigned a coefficient of 0.20 while lower watersheds which are usually
rice fields and built-up areas were assigned a value of 0.15. The coefficient assigned for stream channels was 0.05.
 Figure 1. IfSAR image of Mount Mayon showing the stream network and catchments of the southeastern flanks

Upper watersheds were simulated as flooding events using 100-year rainfall data. The resulting discharge from these
watersheds were assigned sediment concentration values by estimating the concentration by volume of each discharge
value. Hydrograph curves were dependent on the assigned estimated concentration by volume value of the frontal
wave and peak discharge. These estimates were based from the recommended values indicated in the FLO-2D Pro
User Manual (2009) wherein the range of concentration by volume should be 0.45-0.53 and 0.40-0.45 for the frontal
wave and the peak discharge, respectively. Mud and debris flow parameters were based from Glenwood 4 values,
which is the recommended parameters for running a debris flow on FLO-2D.

The 100-year return rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (RIDF) data from Legazpi City was used as the worst case
scenario and as a means to compare the mapped lahar extent (Paguican, 2009) overlaid on the post-disaster SPOT 5
image to the resulting hazard map. The accumulated rainfall for this RIDF is 490.3 mm which is comparable to the
495.8 mm accumulated rainfall during the 2006 event. The difference between the two is that the rainfall from the
available RIDF was distributed over a period of 24 hours while rainfall from the actual event lasted a total of 36 hours.
Since both rainfall data exceed the threshold for triggering debris flows (Rodolfo, 1991), all simulations were set to
run a total of 36 hours instead of 24 to best mimic the 2006 event.

Figure 2. Post-disaster SPOT 5 image dated 6 December 2012 showing the general vicinities of the 6 areas to be
compared with the FLO-2D hazard maps
Simulations were also done for one of the watersheds using 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return period. The accumulated
rainfall values for each of these are 260.5, 316.1, 386.4, and 438.6 millimeters, respectively. Results from these
simulations will provide scenario-based maps which can be used to compare the impending debris flow hazard extent
for each of the scenarios. Six areas (Figure 2) where dikes were breached and where communities suffered the most
damage were compared to the mapped lahar extent from Paguican et al. (2009) to identify the possible lahar pathways
based from satellite imagery acquired more than six years after the event.

3. RESULTS

During the onslaught of typhoon Durian in 2006, all containment dikes upstream of the lahar-ravaged communities
were breached and created new channels up to 100 m wide and 15 m deep (Paguican, 2009). The barangays Tandarora,
Maipon, Sua, Budiao, Busay, Mabinit, Pawa, Padang, and San Antonio were the areas affected by debris flows and
were highlighted in the paper published by Paguican et al. in 2009. The watersheds surrounding these areas were
simulated using 100-year rainfall based from data collected from Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

Figure 3 shows the six areas that were heavily affected by lahars in 2006. The image on the lefthand side of each
figure shows the trace of the lahars and breached dikes based from ground mapping and post-event satellite images
(Paguican, 2009). The images on the righthand side shows the FLO-2D simulation based on 5-meter resolution images
acquired in 2013. A post-disaster SPOT 5 image dated 06 December 2012 was used as the base map.

The leftmost set of images in Figure 3 shows the village of Tandarora in Guinobatan swept by lahars. There is also a
high probability of debris flow occurrence in the stream networks parallel to the river nearest Tandarora based from
the FLO-2D simulation. In Camalig, the town of Sua was completely inundated by lahars in both the lahar trace and
numerical simulations. The lahar trace shows that dike breaching occurred at the bend of the channel and in the 2013
topography, the FLO-2D result shows that dike breaching can still occur.

In the municipality of Daraga, both the villages of Budiao and Busay were affected by lahars. Lahars breached the
main channel and formed new streams that also inundated the village of Busay, located more than a kilometer
downstream. The FLO-2D simulation for Daraga shows that fewer deposits will be concentrated in the main channel.
Instead, it will accumulate and be deposited as the river curves to the east. While the village of Budiao may be spared
from future damages, the village of Busay will still be affected by the onslaught of lahars coming from the main
channel.

Another village that was swept by lahars was Pawa and the fourth set of images in Figure 3 shows the outline of the
lahar breaching the dike and covering the village on the western side of the river. The FLO-2D simulation shows dike
breaching that still covers Pawa. Possible debris flow occurrence and deposition also extends downstream to the
channels where the river diverges. The fifth area swept by lahars in 2006 covers the village of Padang. The area where
the village lay was within the extent of the lahar that flowed to the coast. In the FLO-2D simulation, the lahar flowed
to the main channel and breached the opposite channel where previously there were fewer deposits.

The sixth and last area investigated and mapped in 2009 (Paguican, 2009) is the village of Basud in Sto. Domingo.
Similar to the simulations in Budiao, Busay, Bonga, and Padang, the FLO-2D result is similar to the lahar outline
from the SPOT 5 image. The FLO-2D simulation eventually drains to the coast.

Scenario-based maps from 50-year, 25-year, 10-year, and 5-year rainfall data from Legazpi were also simulated in
the area surrounding Padang to compare the differences in lahar extents against the accumulated 24-hour rainfall
events.

4. DISCUSSION

The IfSAR image used for the simulation was acquired in 2013, six years after the November 2006 lahars took place.
Therefore, it is unsurprising that the FLO-2D simulations using the 100-year rainfall data showed results that were
different from the lahar extents of the actual event. The channels that had been incised during the event may have
changed course or accumulated debris from previous events may have dammed this part of the river.
Figure 3. 5-meter resolution IfSAR-derived image showing the FLO-2D simulation results for the 5 municipalities in the southeastern flanks of Mayon against the mapped
lahar extents.
Dikes have also been reconstructed and added to various banks of the main channels of the six watersheds. These
changes to the topography is included in the IfSAR image and may have also affected the results of the simulations.
Alternatively, areas where lahar extents were diverted to opposite channels or were deposited further downstream can
be attributed to previous lahars already bulking up previous channels.

Apart from this, the rainfall event utilized for the simulations has a different peak discharge and accumulated total
from the actual event. The rainfall from the 2006 event accumulated a total of 495.8mm in a period of 36 hours while
the 100-year rainfall has an accumulated total of 490.3 mm in 24 hours. While the rainfall data from the actual event
is slightly higher than the 100-year rainfall total, the latter is concentrated within a smaller timeframe and can therefore
be more intense. Higher rainfall intensities can account for the excessive deposits around river bends or confluences
such as that in Sua and Pawa.

Simulation results for the other areas may be thinner or thicker than the actual event but this can be better calibrated
if the volume of lahar in a particular watershed can be incorporated as a parameter in FLO-2D. It will also be helpful
to compare the 100-year rainfall scenarios to other rainfall data to see if there are significant changes to the lahar
extent. The 100-year rainfall data shows a gradual increase in rainfall compared to described intensities of the actual
event, however as earlier discussed, it was concentrated within a smaller timeframe.

The debris flow threshold of Mayon Volcano can be described using the following RIDF equation:

I = 27.3D(-0.38) (1)

This equation was derived from 39 lahar-forming events by Rodolfo and Arguden in 1991. In the 2006 event, rainfall
not exceeding 5 mm/hr continued for more than 18 hours before climbing up to 5 mm/hr during the 12th to 18th hour.
Between the 18th and 24th hour, the rainfall intensity spiked up to a little less than 50 mm/hr, far exceeding the
threshold for lahar generation. Typhoon Reming reached its peak discharge by the 24th hour and steadily decreased
from more than 45 mm/hr to 30mm/hr by the 30th hour. Multiple dike breaching occurred during the 32nd hour as
the rainfall intensity continued to decrease and by the 36th hour the downpour ended (Paguican, 2009}.

In the 100-year rainfall event, rainfall was primarily distributed equally throughout its 24-hour duration with the
exception of a sudden jump from 43 % to 53 % during the 12th hour. Differences in peak discharge, with the peak of
the 100-year rainfall event occurring at least 6 hours before rainfall intensities started to climb during the actual event.
Both FLO-2D and onsite hazard mapping have not accounted the possibility of multiple surges when at the given
duration this is very likely to have occurred. More than one debris flow surge at the starting point of the lahar could
also account for the flow breaching dikes further downstream.

Figure 4. SPOT 5 image of the area of Padang village (A) and its equivalent scenario-based hazard maps for (B)
100-year; (C) 50-year; (D) 25-year; (E) 10-year; (F) 5-year RIDF
In running scenario-based hazard maps, it can be expected that the lahar extent should be proportional to rainfall data.
The higher the accumulated rainfall and the more infrequent the rainfall event is, the greater the possibility of lahars
flowing to formerly uncharted pathways. In the case of the watershed surrounding the village of Padang in Legazpi
City (Figure 4) however, there is very little difference between the 5-year simulation and the 100-year run. This result
can be attributed to the Padang watershed eventually leading to the coast, immediately flushing out any excess debris
out to open sea.

The situation is similar to Basud where the 100-year simulation eventually thins as it approaches the coast. Measures
to verify the lahar extents are to also simulate different rainfall scenarios for the other 4 lahar-affected areas in 2006.
Calibrating the 100-year rainfall data to a 200-year rainfall event can also help in verifying the potential of each of
the catchments for future dike breaching.

5. CONCLUSION

FLO-2D is a useful tool in debris flow hazard map generation. FLO-2D-based hazard and scenario maps can be
simulated for other volcanoes in the Philippines to be able to come up with a good estimate of the lahar extent that
could occur in the area. Simulations must be backed-up by historical data and it is important to validate the results
both in the field and using satellite images. Numerical modelling combined with remote sensing and field validation
can minimize costs of conducting full-scale hazard mapping of volcanoes. Results of these validated hazard maps are
also useful to the local communities living in areas prone to lahars.

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