Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 27 (2002) 1587–1599

www.elsevier.com/locate/pce

Modeling of the Guagua Pichincha volcano (Ecuador) lahars

Paolo Canuti, Nicola Casagli, Filippo Catani, Giacomo Falorni *

Department of Earth Sciences, University of Firenze, Via G. La Pira, 4, I-50121 Firenze, Italy
Accepted 23 July 2002

Abstract
Lahars, here defined as debris flows of volcanic origin, are rapid mass movements that pose a serious threat to cities located in the
vicinity of many volcanoes. Quito, capital city of Ecuador and placed at the foot of the Pichincha volcano complex, is exposed to
serious inundation hazard as part of the city is built on numerous deposits of large lahars that have occurred in the last 10,000 years.
The objective of this paper is to model the potential lahars of the Pichincha volcano to predict inundation areas within the city of
Quito. For this purpose two models that apply different approaches were utilized and their results were compared.
The programs used were LAHARZ, a semi-empirical model conceived by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and
FLO-2D, a hydraulic model distributed by FLO Software Inc. LAHARZ is designed as a rapid, objective and reproducible au-
tomated method for mapping areas of potential lahar inundation (Proc. First Int. Conf. on Debris Flow Hazards Mitigation, San
Francisco, USA, ASCE, 1998, p. 176). FLO-2D is a two-dimensional flood routing model for simulating overland flow on complex
surfaces such as floodplains, alluvial fans or urbanized areas (FLO-2D Users manual, version 99.2). Both models run within
geographical information systems (GIS).
Fieldwork was focused on collecting all available information involved in lahar modeling. A total of 49 channel cross-sections
were measured along the two main streams and stratigraphic investigations were carried out on the fans to estimate the volume of
previous events. A global positioning system was utilized to determine the coordinates of each cross-section. Further data collection
concerned topography, rainfall characteristics and ashfall thicknesses. All fieldwork was carried out in cooperation with the In-
stituto Geofisico of the Escuela Politecnica Nacional.
Modeling in a GIS environment greatly aided the exportation of results for the creation of thematic maps and facilitated model
comparison. Evaluation of the models was performed by comparing simulation results against each other and against the geometry
of existing lahar deposits.
Ó 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Lahars; Modeling; Pichincha; Inundation; GIS

1. Introduction present on the Pichincha; snow is present only a few

The city of Quito (2800 m), capital of Ecuador, is
located on a long narrow plain at the foot of the active
Pichincha volcano complex (Fig. 1) and is partially built
upon deposits of several lahars that have occurred in the
last 10,000 years. The complex comprises a young, ac-
tive cone, the Guagua Pichincha (4794 m), located 10
km southwest of the city and the more ancient, now
extinct Rucu Pichincha edifice that separates Quito from
the active volcano. A permanent ice or snowcap is not
* bed, generating lahars. These flow down the steep nar-
Corresponding author. Fax: +39-55-2756296.
E-mail addresses: canuti@geo.unifi.it (P. Canuti), ncasagli@
geo.unifi.it (N. Casagli), catani@geo.unifi.it (F. Catani), gfalorni@
geo.unifi.it (G. Falorni).
1474-7065/02/$ - see front matter Ó 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
PII: S 1 4 7 4 - 7 0 6 5 ( 0 2 ) 0 0 1 8 0 - 8
days per year.
The Rucu Pichincha edifice protects the city from the
direct effects of an eruption, such as pyroclastic flows
and surges, but plays an important role in the formation
of the subsequent lahars that often accompany major
events. During eruptions volcanic ash from the Guagua
Pichincha mantles its slopes, greatly reducing the infil-
tration of water and causing accelerated rainfall runoff
(Waldron, 1967; Pierson et al., 1996). Large quantities
of ash are eroded and the subsequent mixture of water
and ash, upon reaching the stream thalwegs, is capable
of eroding boulders and rocky debris from the stream-
row valleys that dissect the volcano flanks and inundate
the fans on the Quito plain. The two major valleys, lo-
cally known as the Rumipamba (6.97 km2 ) and the
1588 P. Canuti et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 27 (2002) 1587–1599

Fig. 1. Settings of the study area. The Pichincha complex comprises the active Guagua Pichincha (A) and the older extinct Rucu Pichincha (B).
Incised in the flanks of the Rucu are the Rumipamba (C) and Rumiurcu (D) streams. Shaded areas represent the limit for direct effects of eruptions:
dark shaded area high hazard; lighter shade minor hazard. Dashed lines represent ashfall limits: smaller dashes 10 cm ashfall limit, longer dashes 5
cm ashfall limit (modified from Instituto Geofisico website).

Rumiurcu (11.07 km2 ), and in which the largest and

most hazardous lahars form, have been selected for
lahar modeling (Fig. 2).
The objective of this paper is to apply two computer
models for delineating the lahar inundation areas within
the city of Quito. The models were selected on the basis
of their different approach with the aim of comparing
results.
Recent development of Quito has extended the limits
of the urbanized area up to, or near, the apexes of nu-
merous alluvial fans and has extensively modified the
topography. Many of the largest streams, including the
two investigated in this paper, have been channeled into
culverts and subterranean conduits for most of their
length on the fan. These have small diameter openings
and would be immediately obstructed by debris if a la-
har were to occur today. Several deposits of major
lahars are present on the fans, and have been investi-
gated in order to date their time of occurrence, delineate
their areal extension and estimate their overall volume.
The recent reactivation of the Guagua Pichincha
volcano (in 1999) raised the awareness of the local au-
thorities and of the population concerning the exposure
of the city to volcanic hazards and stimulated new and
more detailed research. The framework for this paper is
provided by a project stipulated between the Munici- Fig. 2. Shaded relief of the Pichincha massif and of the Quito plain.
pality of Quito and the local Instituto Geofisico for The catchments of the two streams are also highlighted.
 P. Canuti et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 27 (2002) 1587–1599
assessing these hazards. The studies carried out to date
have focused principally on generic hazard assessments
of the Pichincha volcano or have concentrated on re-
searching specific aspects of the phenomena (e.g. Barberi
et al., 1992; Mothes and Hall, 1998). No studies have
focused on applying computer models for delineating
the extent of the inundation areas within the city of
Quito. This paper aims to ascertain the effects of po-
tential lahars by analyzing the data available from
previous studies and integrating it with additional in-
formation collected during dedicated field investiga-
tions.
Modeling was performed with two GIS-based appli-
cations implementing different approaches. A semi-
empirical model (LAHARZ) based on equations deduced
from the statistical and geometrical analyses of past
events was compared with a hydraulic model (FLO-2D)
based on the St. Venant equations. Modeling results were
exported to ArcView for additional processing and aid-
ing result comparison.
The unique settings of the Pichincha lahars make
modeling complex. Numerous lahars have occurred in
prehistoric times but, as fan conditions today are en-
tirely different due to anthropic activities, a direct
comparison of past inundation areas with model output
cannot be considered as the only method for validation
of the results. However, more useful information is
gained concerning model input parameters from the field
investigation of the deposits. This saves time in the model
calibration phase, reducing or eliminating the necessity
of sensitivity analyses, as many parameters are derived
directly from deposit properties. A sensitivity analysis
was carried out only for debris flow volume.
2. Fieldwork and data analysis
2.1. Fieldwork
The fieldwork carried out on the upper flanks of the
Pichincha focused on measuring a total of 49 channel
cross-sections of the two streams that flow onto the
Rumipamba and Rumiurcu fans in Quito. The cross-
sections were measured out at approximately constant
intervals (
100 m), with spacing adjusted according to
local stream reach conditions. In locations in which
channel geometry changed abruptly, sharp bends or
hydraulic jumps were present, the cross-sections were
placed closer together, with intervals of as little as 20 m.
A portable global positioning system was utilized for
establishing the location of each cross-section.
A methodology proposed by Johnson (1984) was
used to estimate flow concentration of past Pichincha
lahars. Samples were taken from the deposits and water
was admixed in small increments until the deposit ma-
terial was mobile. This procedure was repeated for every
1589
Table 1
Age and relative volume of lahar deposits on the fans of the two in-
vestigated streams
Age (yrs BP) Volume (m3 )
Rumipamba
980 1:6  106
1400 7:4  106
2300 9:0  106
Rumiurcu
800 7:9  105
980 5:0  105
2300 3:7  106
8200 1:0  106
major lahar deposit. An average value of 66% of sedi-
ment by volume was estimated.
The fieldwork carried out on the two selected alluvial
fans by the Instituto Geofisico had the aim of estab-
lishing the volume of past lahars and, secondarily, of
correlating these with the ashfall thicknesses (Mothes
and Hall, 1998). Stratigraphic data was collected from
construction site excavations as the investigated areas
are heavily urbanized and few naturally occurring out-
crops are present. Deposit thickness and areal extension
were interpolated to estimate the volume of the deposits
(Table 1).
2.2. Ashfall thickness
An eruption of the Guagua Pichincha or of one of the
surrounding volcanoes would mantle the flanks of the
Rucu Pichincha with a layer of ash. The thickness of this
layer and the characteristics of the subsequent rain-
storms determine the volume of the lahars. Based on the
last four eruptions of the volcano and on the direction of
the prevailing winds, Barberi et al. (1992) indicate that
the maximum ashfall thickness that can be expected to
mantle the eastern flank of the Rucu Pichincha follow-
ing a major eruption is 40 cm. Prehistoric Guagua
Pichincha eruptions and catastrophic eruptions that had
a large-scale regional impact from surrounding volca-
noes have deposited as much as 90 cm of ash (Table 2)
during catastrophic eruptions (Hall and Mothes, 1994).
However, as their frequency is relatively low and in the
last 5500 years no volcanoes have originated ashfalls
over 40 cm, the value proposed by Barberi et al. (1992)
was used as worst case scenario.
2.3. Water sources
In the case of the Pichincha volcano the amount of
water available for lahar mobilization and flow is the
most important factor controlling lahar volume. In
volcanic settings the most common sources of water are
of three types: melting of a summit glacier or snow cap;
crater lakes; rainfall. Additional water sources include
1590 P. Canuti et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 27 (2002) 1587–1599

Table 2 crease is associated to a decrease in rainfall intensity;

Age and thickness of ashfalls on the slopes of the Rucu Pichincha listed this implies that a higher number of wet days occur at
in chronological order (based on data from Hall and Mothes, 1994)
the higher elevations. Another noteworthy characteristic
Volcano Age (yrs BP) Ashfall (cm) is the erratic distribution of the rainfall: it often rains at
Guagua Pichincha 342 15 one pluviometer while at another one placed only a few
Guagua Pichincha 419 10
hundred meters away no rainfall is recorded.
Quilotoa 785 20
Guagua Pichincha 980 40
Guagua Pichincha 1400 30 2.4. Lahar characteristics
Pululahua 2300 10
Ninahuilca 2370 10 According to the time of occurrence, lahars can be
Ninahuilca 5500 35
divided into ‘‘primary’’ lahars, defined as debris flows
Cotopaxi 6000 50
Guagua Pichincha 8200 30 that are directly triggered by an eruption, and ‘‘sec-
Ninahuilca 8500 55 ondary’’ lahars that are post-eruption events. In the case
Ninahuilca 11,500 15 of the Pichincha there is a practical reason for this dis-
Guagua Pichincha 12,000 90 tinction as it is possible that primary lahars are larger.
Rainstorms accompanying major eruptions sometimes
produce intense precipitation, probably much more in-
water vapor contained in the eruption column, tense than the ordinary rainfall that occurs at the high
groundwater and the damming of streams by lava flows altitudes of the volcano. However, as of yet it has not
or other volcanic debris. been possible to identify the triggering mechanisms of all
Notwithstanding the considerable elevation of the the lahars present on the fans and to correlate the events
Pichincha volcano, its proximity to the equator prevents with eruptions.
the formation of a summit glacier or even of a perma- Secondary lahars have been observed at volcanoes in
nent snow cap. Although snowfalls may occur several similar settings, such as Mount Pinatubo (Philippines)
times a year they are limited to the summit area, are and the Irazu (Costa Rica), providing important infor-
relatively shallow and melt within a few days. In historic mation concerning the origin and characteristics of these
times, however, chroniclers have related of occasional events. In particular, it was noted that a mantle of ash
deep snowfalls that made access to the summit difficult tends to destroy the natural vegetation, smoothing the
(Aguilar, 1868). The presence of a deep layer of snow topography and greatly reducing rainfall infiltration due
during an eruption could have provided a large quantity to the rapid formation of a thin, impermeable superficial
of water for the formation of lahars as the interaction of crust in the ash layer (Waldron, 1967; Pierson et al.,
hot pyroclastic material with snow or ice is one of the 1996). A direct consequence of reduced infiltration is
main water sources at many volcanoes. In any case the accelerated runoff and erosion. At the Irazu volcano
occurrence of a major eruption during a period in which rainfall runoff has been estimated to vary between 80%
a thick snow cover was present on the volcano would and 100% depending on the rain intensity. Even mod-
have represented an improbable coincidence. Today this erate precipitation can lead to flash floods that, through
mechanism is even less realistic as climate warming has sheet, rill and gully erosion rapidly entrain ash, soil and
further reduced snowfall. debris and transform from water floods to debris floods
No crater lakes are present at the Pichincha volcano, and flows. Upon reaching the channels these flows scour
leaving rainfall as the only major source of water for the loose debris from the channel bed and valley sides, en-
Pichincha lahars. Rainstorms often accompany large training large boulders and trees, and can lower the
eruptions at volcanoes but even post-eruption rainfall streambed by several meters.
can trigger lahars (Waldron, 1967; Pierson et al., 1996). At the Irazu a consequence of the bed level lowering of
The available rainfall data was analyzed to determine the Rio Reventado, the largest stream heading on the
precipitation characteristics in the study area. This was southern side of the volcano, was the failure of several
not difficult for the relatively low lying Quito area as portions of the valley walls bounding the stream. These
lengthy rainfall records dating to the end of the 19th mass movements continuously produced large quantities
century exist but, unfortunately, little information re- of debris that fed the debris flows but, more importantly,
garding precipitation characteristics at the altitudes of sudden failure of newly formed landslides threatened to
the lahar source areas was available. A qualitative dam the channel. This would have led to the impounding
analysis of partial data provided by a specific project, in of water and the probable subsequent breaching of the
which a series of pluviometers were placed high up on landslide dam. The settings of the Rio Reventado are
the volcano flanks (up to 4200 m) (Ayabaca et al., 1996), very similar to those of the two streams heading on the
permitted to infer some general trends at the higher el- Pichincha volcano, where the valleys are actually more
evations of the Pichincha volcano. In general, rainfall incised, and many quiescent landslides have been mapped
appears to increase constantly with altitude but this in- (Gallo-Plaza, pers. comm.), indicating that similar mech-
 P. Canuti et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 27 (2002) 1587–1599 1591

anisms may have been active here in the past. This leads
us to believe that landslide dams may well have been the
cause of the larger debris flows that occurred within the
Rumipamba and Rumiurcu streams. Specific studies
concerning this aspect have not yet been carried out.

2.5. Lahar volumes and bulking

Fieldwork highlighted an important feature of the

Pichincha lahars: all deposits contain large quantities of
rocky debris scoured from the streambed that signifi-
cantly augmented the overall volume of the events. The
process of sediment entrainment is known as bulking
and can often lead to relevant increases in lahar volume.
In the case of the Pichincha lahars it was difficult to
accurately quantify the bulking factor as outcrops were
limited and randomly distributed over the fan. The size
of the largest boulders was measured as these are visible
along the channel (Fig. 3) near the fan apex while lateral
and distal thinning of deposit thickness and diminishing
clast sizes were estimated from observations within
construction sites. Data available from the literature Fig. 3. Lateral deposits of past lahars within the Rumiurcu stream.
Note the person at bottom-centre of the image for scale.
indicate that bulking factors usually range from 1 (no
bulking) to 4 (four times initial volume) for large flows,
while small events with an overabundance of water can volume, as in reality only a fraction of the total ash
bulk by as much as 15–20 times their initial volume present on the slopes would actually be involved. Not-
(Gallino and Pierson, 1985). withstanding this, in the Rumipamba basin an ashfall of
A simple analysis was carried out to determine min- almost 130 cm would be required to produce a lahar
imum bulking factors for the Pichincha lahars. Initial with a volume comparable to the 2300 years BP event
lahar volume is controlled mainly by ashfall thickness, (9:0  106 m3 ). Furthermore the failure and mobiliza-
rainfall and basin morphology. Infiltration was consid- tion of this amount of ash would require approximately
ered negligible, as justified by the data from the Irazu 2:3  106 m3 of water, considering a 1:3 water–sediment
volcano, hence 100% of rainfall runoff from the upper ratio, which translates into a rainfall of over 420 mm
portions of the catchments participates in lahar forma- during a single storm. These circumstances are not
tion (Table 3). The volumes obtained with these calcu- possible as neither an ashfall nor a rainfall with these
lations were then compared with the investigated fan characteristics can reasonably be expected to occur at
deposit volumes (Table 4). the Pichincha volcano. This provided support of the
If the lahar solid phase were composed totally of ash, important role played by sediment entrainment in in-
this method should produce an overestimation of lahar creasing the overall volume of the Pichincha lahars.

Table 3
Estimates of bulking factors based on possible ashfall thicknesses, contributing basin area and the volumes of the past lahar deposits
Stream Catchment area (km2 )a Ashfall (cm)b Ash volume (m3 )c Deposit volume (m3 )d Bulking factore
5
Rumipamba 5.35 10 5:35  10 – –
Rumipamba 5.35 20 1:07  106 1:6  106 1.5
Rumipamba 5.35 30 1:60  106 7:4  106 4.6
Rumipamba 5.35 40 2:14  106 9:0  106 4.2
Rumiurcu 7.92 10 7:92  105 5:0  105 0.6
Rumiurcu 7.92 20 1:58  106 7:9  105 0.5
Rumiurcu 7.92 30 2:38  106 1:0  106 0.4
Rumiurcu 7.92 40 3:17  106 3:7  106 1.2
a
Stream upper catchment area.
b
Potential ashfall thickness.
c
Volume of ash obtained by multiplying ashfall thickness by basin area.
d
Volume of deposits on fans.
e
Bulking factor obtained by dividing (d) by (c).
1592 P. Canuti et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 27 (2002) 1587–1599

Table 4
List of the comparisons carried out between model output and past
lahar deposits
No.a Model volume (m3 )b Deposit (m3 )c
Rumipamba
1 1:0  106 1:6  106
2 2:0  106 1:6  106
3 5:0  106 7:4  106
4 5:0  106 9:0  106
Rumiurcu
1 5:0  105 5:0  105
2 5:0  105 7:9  105
3 1:0  106 1:0  106 Fig. 4. Photo of the upper catchment of the Rumiurcu stream taken
4 4:0  106 3:7  106 from 4200 m a.s.l. Grassland type vegetation is known locally as
a
Comparison number. p
aramo. Note relatively gentle slope of valley bottom.
b
Volumes used in the model simulations.
c
Volumes of the fan deposits.
Table 5
Volumes and relative peak discharges of the simulated lahars. The
Further considerations, however, are due. In the values in column (3) were those used for the modelling
worst case ashfall scenario prospected by Barberi et al. Simulation volume Mizuyama (m3 /s)b Peak discharge
(1992), a maximum ash thickness of 40 cm can be ex- (m3 )a (m3 /s)c
pected on the upper flanks of the Pichincha. In the Rumipamba
Rumipamba catchment, neglecting sediment entrain- 5:0  105 603.87 584
1:0  106 1044.13 1241
ment, the ensuing lahars would have a maximum vol-
2:0  106 1805.37 2117
ume of 2:1  106 m3 . Thus to equal the volume of the 5:0  106 3723.40 4015
largest recorded event (9:0  106 m3 ), a bulking factor of
Rumiurcu
over 4 would be required. While this value is reasonable
5:0  105 603.87 409
from a physical standpoint it appears highly unlikely 1:0  106 1044.13 876
that rainfall would be sufficient to provide the quantity 2:0  106 1805.37 1679
of water necessary for mobilization. This also provides 4:0  106 3121.63 2920
support for a different hydrologic trigger for the largest a
Volume of simulated lahars.
b
events in the smaller Rumipamba basin. Peak discharge calculated with MizuyamaÕs equation (see text).
c
Despite the larger area of the Rumiurcu catchment, Peak discharge actually utilized for modeling.
the lahar deposits on the fan are generally smaller than
those on the Rumipamba (Table 1). This leads to bul- such as the failure of landslide dams, are not considered
king factors for the Rumiurcu lahars that are near one, here. A slightly lower maximum value of 4:0  106 m3 ,
apparently implying that sediment entrainment played a in good accordance with past events, is used for the
minor role in total lahar volume. This is in contrast with Rumiurcu fan.
field evidence, in which debris of fluvial origin is abun-
dant and often prevalent on the juvenile material. A 2.6. Hydrographs and digital terrain model (DTM)
possible explanation derives from the topography of the
catchment: its uppermost portion has a relatively wide The input hydrograph is one of the major problems in
U-shape with a gentle slope that is bounded by steep, the application of hydraulic models. In the case of the
grassy flanks (Fig. 4). Lahars probably form in this area Pichincha lahars, as no direct observations of past
and are then channelled into the narrower, steeper and events exist, order-of-magnitude peak discharges were
more forested mid-portion of the valley. If this were true obtained by applying an empirical formula conceived by
then the area actually contributing to initial lahar vol- Mizuyama et al. (1992):
ume would be only 3.5 km2 and a 40 cm ashfall would
Qmax ¼ 0:019V 0:79 ð1Þ
yield lahars with an initial volume of approximately
1:4  106 m3 . A comparison of this value with the largest The peak discharge ðQmax Þ thus obtained is a direct
deposit on the fan yields a bulking factor of 2.6, in function of event volume ðV Þ. To account for the dif-
good agreement with field evidence. ferent characteristics of the two catchments the output
The range of volumes utilized for modeling the Pi- values of the equation were arbitrarily adjusted taking
chincha lahars is shown in Table 5. A maximum volume into account, the differences in deposit volumes on the
of 5:0  106 m3 is used for the Rumipamba fan as this two fans, topographic parameters (basin area and
value appears to be in good agreement with rainfall shape) and channel characteristics (slope, straightness,
data; other possible debris flow triggering mechanisms, roughness, etc.) (Table 5).
 P. Canuti et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 27 (2002) 1587–1599
Topographic data consisted of a DTM of the Pi-
chincha volcano with a resolution of 20 m that was
provided by the Municipality of Quito through the In-
stituto Geofisico (Fig. 2).
3. Models
3.1. LAHARZ
The overall aim of LAHARZ is to provide a ‘‘rapid,
reproducible, objective and inexpensive method to de-
lineate distal debris flow hazard zones’’ (Schilling and
Iverson, 1998). To achieve this the method employs the
results of scaling and statistical analyses of the geometry
of several lahars and debris flows in order to predict
downstream inundation areas in function of volume.
Two empirical equations were extrapolated from the
observation of 27 cases:
A ¼ 0:05V 2=3 ð2Þ
2=3
B ¼ 200V ð3Þ
in which A is the maximum inundated cross-sectional
area, B is the total planimetric area of inundation and V
is lahar volume.
LAHARZ runs within the Arc/INFO environment
and, coupled with a DTM, the equations automatically
delineate a range of valley cross-sectional areas and
planimetric areas based on user-specified volumes in
order to generate a set of nested hazard zones. The
maximum hazard area is determined by the smallest
events, as statistically these are the most frequent. For
this same reason as events increase in size the inundation
areas represent zones of decreasing hazard.
One of the principal attributes of LAHARZ is that it
requires a limited amount of data and little fieldwork.
The latter is often reduced to carrying out a reconnais-
sance in order to determine the location at which lahar
deposition commences (defined as the proximal hazard
zone boundary (PHZB)). At many active volcanoes
approximate lahar volumes are often available from
previous research. If this is not the case, a range of
probable lahar volumes can be estimated on the basis of
source area characteristics (area, probable ashfall
thicknesses, thickness of loose pyroclastic material, etc.)
and water sources. LAHARZ is therefore capable of
producing results quickly without exposing operators to
undue hazards from eruptions as field investigations are
reduced to a minimum.
In summary, model input consists of a DTM of the
volcano and the surrounding areas, a range of lahar
volumes and the definition of the PHZB. Additional
grids, such as flow direction, flow accumulation, etc.
required by LAHARZ are automatically generated.
The inundation areas produced by LAHARZ often
appear jagged. This is due to the modus operandi of the
1593
program; it fills the valley inundated cross-sectional area
calculated by Eq. (2) before moving downstream one
cell and repeating the process. Thus, if the cross-sections
have an irregular form, as is frequently the case on steep
alluvial fans, the rim of the inundation area may appear
jagged; a shallow cross-section followed by a deep one,
or vice versa, projected onto the planimetric area, will
produce a marked difference in cross-section width.
The results produced by LAHARZ and their com-
parison with the geometry of the field-measured deposits
are shown in Figs. 5 and 6.
3.2. FLO-2D
FLO-2D is a two-dimensional hydraulic model based
on volume conservation for routing debris floods and
flows on alluvial fans. This is performed by modeling
the progress of a flow hydrograph through the topo-
graphic domain both as channel flow and overland flow
(OÕBrien, 1999). The effects of structures such as bridges,
culverts, streets, buildings and levees can be modeled.
Cross-sections can be interpolated with the DTM for
improving model accuracy.
Two-dimensional flood routing is accomplished
through numerical integration of the equations of mo-
tion and of conservation of fluid volume. Debris flow
rheology is modeled by a shear-stress relationship writ-
ten in slope form:
Sf ¼ Sy þ Sv þ Std ð4Þ
where Sf is the total friction slope and is equal to the
sum of the yield slope ðSy Þ, the viscous slope ðSv Þ and the
turbulent-dispersive slope ðStd Þ components (OÕBrien,
1999). These can be written as:
sy KgV n2td V 2
sf ¼ þ þ ð5Þ
cm h 8cm h2 h4=3
in which sy is yield strength, cm is the specific weight of
the slurry, h is flow depth, K is an empirical resistance
parameter, g is fluid viscosity, V is flow velocity and ntd
is Mannings roughness coefficient. A quadratic solution
to the slope friction equation is incorporated in FLO-
2D. Of the above-mentioned parameters, h and V are
calculated by the model, K and ntd can be assumed from
overland and channel flow resistance characteristics,
leaving sy , cm and g as the parameters to be defined.
These are linked to the flow sediment concentration
ðCv Þ. For cm the relationship is:
cm ¼ c þ Cv ðcs  cÞ ð6Þ
where c is the specific weight of water and cs the specific
weight of the sediment, while for sy and g FLO-2D uses
two empirical relationships deduced from field obser-
vations:
sy ¼ a2 eb2 Cv ð7Þ
1594 P. Canuti et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 27 (2002) 1587–1599

Fig. 5. Comparison of the inundation areas produced by LAHARZ on the Rumipamba fan with the geometry of past lahar deposits.

g ¼ a1 eb1 Cv ð8Þ (6) ðCv ¼ 66%Þ. The empirical coefficients a1 , b1 , a2 and

where ai and bi are coefficients defined by laboratory
experiment (OÕBrien and Julien, 1988).
The assessment of sediment concentration is therefore
crucial when modeling with FLO-2D. Simple trials were
performed in the field in which water was gradually
admixed with the deposit material until liquefaction was
attained. The quantity of water added was used to cal-
culate the volumetric sediment concentration with Eq.
b2 were subsequently determined from charts in which
sediment concentration is plotted against yield strength
and viscosity (OÕBrien, 1999).
FLO-2D is data intensive and requires detailed
fieldwork and laboratory analyses. This significantly
lengthens model setup and preliminary results are ob-
tained after some weeks. Topographic data must be
formatted according to specific requirements of FLO-
2D. Furthermore, in order to improve modeling
 P. Canuti et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 27 (2002) 1587–1599 1595

Fig. 6. Comparison of the inundation areas produced by LAHARZ on the Rumiurcu fan with the geometry of past lahar deposits.

accuracy in the channels, cross-sections were measured 4. Results

directly in the two streams as FLO-2D consents to in-
terpolate this field data with the DTM.
FLO-2D output regards many flow characteristics. In
addition to inundation area, information concerning
maximum and final values (as well as at user specified
intervals) of flow discharge, velocity, direction, depth
and concentration are provided.
Model output and comparison with past lahar inun-
dation areas are shown in Figs. 7 and 8.
The results obtained by the simulations carried out
with LAHARZ and FLO-2D were matched against the
inundation areas produced by past events with the aid
of GIS. Although extensive modifications of fan mor-
phology make large differences between past lahars and
simulation results inevitable they nonetheless provide a
standard for judging the different behavior of the two
models. Table 4 lists the simulation volumes and the
1596 P. Canuti et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 27 (2002) 1587–1599

Fig. 7. Comparison of the inundation areas produced by FLO-2D on the Rumipamba fan with the geometry of past lahar deposits.

deposit volumes with which they were compared for
both fans. On the Rumipamba fan the largest modeled
event is significantly smaller than the largest two lahar
deposits present on the fan. This should be kept in mind
when carrying out the comparisons.
Model results are displayed in Figs. 5–8. Preliminary
observation immediately highlights the substantial dif-
ferences between the inundation areas generated by the
two models on the Rumipamba fan. While LAHARZ
produces straight, elongated deposits, FLO-2D gives rise
to deposits that spread out rapidly from near the fan apex
until they cover a large area of the fan surface. The shape
of the inundation areas produced by both models also
differs significantly from the form of past lahar deposits.
 P. Canuti et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 27 (2002) 1587–1599 1597

Fig. 8. Comparison of the inundation areas produced by FLO-2D on the Rumiurcu fan with the geometry of past lahar deposits.

On the Rumipamba fan LAHARZ inundation areas
maintain a long narrow form down to the distal portion
of the fan for all simulation volumes. The only notice-
able change is in the modeled inundation width which
becomes proportionately larger for each volume incre-
ment. In the apical area model output slightly overesti-
mates the size of past inundation areas while, starting
from the central portion, this tendency is inverted and
the inundation areas become increasingly underesti-
mated in the distal zone and in the Quito plain.
In the case of the Rumiurcu fan the modeled inun-
dation areas produced by LAHARZ are much more
similar to the form of past lahar deposits. This is
probably due more to the particular shape of the Ru-
miurcu fan, that is long and narrow and does not have a
typical cone shape, rather than to improved model
performance.
The inundation areas estimated by FLO-2D appear
to largely overestimate the inundation areas produced
by prehistoric lahars in the apical and middle portions
of the Rumipamba fan (Fig. 7) while in the distal areas
the situation is reversed. It must be noted, however, that
upon entrance to the city, on the upper sector of the fan,
the streams are today channeled into culverts, a fact that
1598 P. Canuti et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 27 (2002) 1587–1599
is also embedded in the DTM. The point where this
occurs is the exact location at which the flow simulated
by FLO-2D abruptly floods the fan and rapidly spreads
out. As regards the Rumiurcu fan (Fig. 8) the model
results are consistent with the form of past lahar de-
posits although a secondary arm of the larger flows
travels southward, following the topographical depres-
sion of an ancient streambed. Again this is probably
attributable to the fact that the modeled debris flows are
forced onto the fan surface at the location of the sub-
terranean channel opening.
5. Conclusions
LAHARZ produces inundation areas of a general
validity that supply an indication of the areas more ex-
posed to hazard. Results are produced rapidly with
minimum risk to operators and a degree of hazard,
based on lahar volume, is specified. The particular
modeling conditions of the Pichincha lahars do not
represent the optimal settings for LAHARZ. This ap-
plication appears to be designed for forecasting inun-
dation areas on a large scale and in environments where
human activities have not extensively modified natural
conditions. A further consideration regards the method
LAHARZ applies for assessing inundation areas. After
applying Eq. (2) for estimating the inundated cross-
sectional area, LAHARZ fills the cross-section and then
moves downstream one cell and fills the next one and so
on, until the total planimetric area obtained from Eq. (3)
is filled. For this method to work correctly, however, the
topographic domain should be concave while in some
cases, and the Pichincha lahars are among these, the
topography can be convex, as on a fan. This likely leads
to an underestimation of cross-section width on fans.
FLO-2D can be extensively adjusted to diverse
modeling conditions, including urban areas. This un-
doubtedly represents an advantage in the case of the
Pichincha lahars. Although the form of the inundation
areas provided by the model differs noticeably from the
shape of the deposits present on the fan this can be
plausibly explained by the modifications brought about
by human activities. Firstly, worthy of note is the fact
that in the Quito plain, where the flows stop, actual
inundation areas are similar in shape and extension to
model output, with the latter occupying a slightly
smaller area. This seems reasonable as outflow from the
channel commenced higher up on the fan and debris is
deposited in the proximal area of the fan. The relatively
high altitude of the initial outflow point is due to the
presence of undersized subterranean conduits. Once
overland flow begins slope becomes the principal pa-
rameter controlling flow direction and velocity and a
convex topography implies a rapid spreading of the
flow, especially considering the smoothing effect on
surface roughness of the urban environment. FLO-2D
output also regards numerous other aspects of the lah-
ars, providing additional information for hazard pre-
diction, prevention and mitigation. The detail supplied
by FLO-2D, however, comes at the cost of a lengthy and
rather complicated preliminary phase in which much
data must be collected, fieldwork be carried out, and
model set up performed. Results are produced only after
several weeks or some months of work.
In conclusion LAHARZ and FLO-2D are two pro-
grams that adopt completely different approaches to
modeling lahars and that accordingly, at least in the case
of the Pichincha lahars, provide results that differ no-
ticeably. This, however, can be justified considering the
diverse objective of the applications, as LAHARZ aims
to rapidly provide indications concerning areas exposed
to inundation hazard during emergencies while FLO-2D
is proposed as a tool to be used in the middle and long-
term management of areas prone to inundation.
Acknowledgements
We are grateful to the many people that contributed
to this paper. Particular mention and thanks go to Mi-
nard Hall, Patricia Mothes, Hugo Yepes, Remigio
Galarraga, Jos
e Egred of the Instituto Geofisico of the
Escuela Politecnica Nacional in Quito as well as to the
entire staff and the students that helped with the field-
work. We are grateful to the Observatorio Astronomico
de Quito for providing the rainfall data for Quito.
Special mention is due to the Municipality of Quito for
supplying the Digital Elevation Model of the Pichincha
and of the city. We would also like to acknowledge
Thomas Pierson. The work for this paper was carried
out within a project commissioned to the Instituto
Geofisico by the Municipality of Quito for assessing the
volcanic hazards to which the city is exposed. Fieldwork
was carried out by personnel of the Instituto Geofisico
in collaboration with members of the Earth Sciences
Department of the University of Firenze.
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