MIGRATION

AND
URBANIZATION
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/charts/immigrant-and-emigrant-populations-country-origin-and-
destination?width=1000&height=850&iframe=true
Harris – Todaro Migration Model
 Result of Harris-Todaro model

One of the remarkable and contributing results of the Harris-Todaro

model is that unemployment may emerge in the urban areas as a result of
the migration from rural to urban areas. The model bases the distribution
of labor among sectors not only on the cross-sectoral wage gap but also on
the prospects finding legal jobs in the city. After migrating from rural to
urban areas, even after an increase in wages and incomes in urban areas, the
unemployed people do not want to return to the rural areas and they
become the part of the informal sector in the cities.
 Variables of Migration Models
§ Level of wage or income
§ Wage or income gap between two regons
§ Lack of safety and high crime
§ War
§ Environmental disasters (such as flooding, drought)
§ Finding a job
§ Relatives and urban life
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHWwxBEfikw
 URBANIZATION RATE
1950 1970 1990 2019 2030 2050

World 29.4 36.6 43.0 56.0 59.9 66.0

Developed 54.5 66.6 71.2 81 82.1 85.0

Developing 17.6 25.3 35.2 53 55.8 63.0

Africa 14.4 23.5 32.0 42.5 47.7 56.0

Asia 17.5 23.7 31.9 49.9 55.5 64.0

Eurpe 51.3 62.8 70.6 75 77.4 82.0

N America 63.9 73.8 75.4 82.2 87.0 87.0

Urbanisation and the rise of the MEGACITIES
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDS_BqDeZ4k
 Population of MegaCities and their Problems
1980 1995 2018 2030 Problems
Tokyo 23.3 32.5 37.4 37.2 Eartquake
Delhi 3.5 9.7 28.5 36.0 Pollution
Bombay (Mumbai) 5.8 12.4 20.0 28.0 monsoon and flood
Sao Paulo 7.6 14.8 21.6 23.4 Crime
Dhaka 1.4 6.6 19.5 27.3 Crime & Crowded
New York 16.2 16.1 18.8 23.6 Traffic
Calcuta 6.9 10.9 14.6 19.0 monsoon and flood
Shangai 6.0 7.8 25.5 30.7 Traffic & Crowded
Karachi 3.1 7.1 15.4 24.8 Pollution
Istanbul 2.8 6.6 14.7 16.7 Traffic
Urbanization = Development >> ?

https://www.yourarticlelibrary.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/1-2.jpg
Annual Cost of Traffic Congestion in the United States
Annual Delay (000 hours) Congetion Cost (million $)

Los Angeles 971,478 19,490

New York 811,609 16,466

Chicago 352,759 7,150

Miami 265,947 5,367

San Francisco 253,838 5,175

Washington 247,811 5,010

https://static.tti.tamu.edu/tti.tamu.edu/documents/mobility-report-2019.pdf
INFORMAL SECTOR

yeniasya.com.tr
persistence of informal sector
 POPULATION
AND
HUMAN CAPITAL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUwmA3Q0_OE
 World Population (History and Estimation)
0 1000 1250 1500 1750 1800 1900 1920
0.30 0.31 0.40 0.50 0.79 0.98 1.65 1.86
1940 1980 1990 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050
2.30 4.44 5.27 6.47 7.79 8.55 9.20 9.74

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Low Fertility Rate (est.) 6.78 7.79 8.36 8.72 8.91

Middle Fertility Rate (est.) 6.84 7.79 8.55 9.20 9.74

High Fertility Rate (est.) 6.90 7.79 8.73 9.77 10.58

: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/
Optimum Population
Population Growth Rate of Selected Countries
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsBT5EQt348
Demographic Transition Model
Todaro & Smith (2011) Economic Development
Reasons of Falling the Birth Rate in Europe
THE IDEA OF HAVING AS MANY CHILDREN AS YOU CAN TAKE
CARE OF

CHANGING LIFESTYLE WİTH URBANIZATION

INCREASED WOMEN LITERACY AND EMPLOYMENT

FAMILY PLANNING
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fg7jIjmLyWs&a
b_channel=PolyMatter
Todaro & Smith (2011) Economic Development
Few words on population aging
LOW-LEVEL EQUILIBRIUM POPULATION TRAP
«Malthusian Population Trap»

Todaro & Smith (2011) Economic Development

 Criticism of Neo-Malthusian Model

§ It doesn’t consider technological progress

§ It does not consider the empirical and analytical
testing methods
§ It depends on wrong variables
 When and under what conditions are developing nations likely to
experience falling birth rates and a slower expansion of population?

1. An increase in the education of women and a consequent change in their role and status
2. An increase in female nonagricultural wage employment opportunities, which raises the price or cost of
their traditional child-rearing activities
3. A rise in family income levels through the increased direct employment and earnings of a husband and
wife or through the redistribution of income and assets from rich to poor
4. A reduction in infant mortality through expanded public health programs and better nutritional status for
both mother and child and better medical care
5. The development of old-age and other social security systems outside the extended family network to
lessen the economic dependence of parents, especially women, on their offspring
6. Expanded schooling opportunities so that parents can better substitute child “quality” for large numbers
of children
Aging is matter !
TURKEY’S DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
and
POPULATION POLICY