TECHNOLOGICAL RISK MANAGEMENT

&
THE 4TH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

Pol HOORELBEKE
Vice President HSE Audits, Major Accident Investigations and REX
Delft LP2019
PURPOSE OF THE PRESENTATION

Our industry is in the middle of the 4th industrial

revolution.

How will the 4th industrial revolution impact the way we

manage process safety?

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 The influence of the First and Second Industrial
Revolution on th emanagement of safety in industry

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4
FIRST AND SECOND INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

● The First Industrial Revolution took place from the 18th to 19th centuries in Europe
and America. It was a period when mostly agrarian, rural societies became industrial
and urban. The iron and textile industries, along with the development of the steam
engine, played central roles in the Industrial Revolutions

● The Second Industrial Revolution took place between 1870 and 1914, just before
World War I. It was a period of growth for pre-existing industries and expansion of new
ones, such as steel, oil and electricity, and used electric power to create mass
production. Major technological advances during this period included the telephone,
light bulb, phonograph and the internal combustion machine

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 « UPSTAIR, DOWNSTAIRS » LIFE IN THE 19TH CENTURY

Child work at machine

Young coal miners

Child « hurriers »

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Second International (1889 – 1916) – Socialist movement

1. Henri Van Kol (1852-1925) – Dutch

2. Manuel Ugarte (1875-1951). Argentin
3. Antonin Nemec (1858-1925). Czech
4. 4 Edouard Vaillant (1840-1915). French
5. Frantisek Soukop (1871-1940). Czech
6. Rosa Luxemburg (1871-1919). Polish
7. Victor Adler (1852-1918). Austrian.
8. Karl Kautsky (1854-1938). Germand
9. Maksymilian Walecki (1877-1937). Polish
10.Emile Vandervelde (1866-1938). Belgian.
11.Jean Longuet (1876-1938). French.
12.Enrico Ferri (1852-1929). Italian
13.Amilcare Cipriani (1843-1918). Italian
14.Pieter Jelles Troelstra (1860-1930). Ducth
15.Henry Hyndman (1842-1921). English
16.Ernest Belfort Bax (1854-1921). English
17.Olav Kringen (1867-1951). Norwegian
18.Sen Katayama (1859-1933). Japanees
19.Georgii Plekhanoc (1856-1918). Russian
20.Alexandre Desrousseaux (1861-1955). French
21.Peter Knudsen (1848-1910). Danish
22.Morris Hillquit (1869-1933). American.
23.Achille Cambier. Argentin
24.Dadabhai Naoroji (1825-1917). Indian
25.Edward Anseele (1856-1938). Belgian.

Leaders of the 2nd International at Amsterdam Congress 1904

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IMPACT OF 1ST AND 2ND IR ON SAFETY

● Awareness of Occupational Health and Safety at work

(quest for justice):

- 1864: The International Workingmen's

Association (IWA, 1864–1876) aimed at uniting a
variety of different socialist, communist and trade
organizations that were based on the working class.
Five to Eight million members

- 1889: Second International (1889 – 1916) – Socialist

movement

- 1919: Creation of ILO - the International Labor Office

(article 392 of the Treaty of Versailles)

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 20th century: more understanding of causes of work related accidents

The Pitsburgh Survey (1908) draws attention on safety

provisions in the US Steel Corporation: technical measures,
machine guarding, Committees of safety, inspection
activities, checklists, the « Human Element »

Herbert William Heinrich (1886 - 1962 ):

• 75,000 accidents
• Heinrich‘s Law (1-29-300) Frank Bird (1921 - 2007 ):
• 88:10:2 ratio (unsafe acts-unsafe 1 753 498 accidents, 297 companies
conditions-) Rule 1:10:30:600
Loss Causation Model

James Reason (1938 - ):

• Aviation industry
• Importance of Human Error and
Organizational accidents

Organizational Behavior
Holnagel (2004)
Management
• Functional Resonance Accident
• Psychological approaches
Model (FRAM)
• Sociological approaches

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IMPACT OF 1IR & 2IR ON SAFETY: STANDARDIZATION

1917 • DIN (Deutsches Institut für Normung) in Germany

1918 • British Engineering Standards Committee (founded in 1901) is transformed
in the British Engineering Standards Association (BESA)

• American National Standards Institute. The first standard (American

Standard Safety Code, ASSC) was approved in 1921 for protection of eyes
and head of workers in industry

1926 • International Standards Association (ISA) (transformed in 1947 in ISO)

• Association française de normalisation (AFNOR) in France

…..

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 MAJOR ACCIDENTS IN THE ’60 - ’80 PERIOD
1965 1973
Rotterdam (Nl) St Amand les Eaux (Fr)
Explosion during cleaning BLEVE road tanker
sea going vessel 9 killed, 45 injured
16 killed
1966 1974
Feyzin (Fr) Flixborough (UK)
BLEVE refinery VCE chemical site
18 killed, 81 injured 28 killed , 104 injuries

1967
1975
Martelange (Be)
Beek (Nl)
BLEVE truck
22 killed, 47 injured VCE steamcracker
14 killed, 107 injured
1968
Pernis (Nl)
1976
VCE refinery
Seveso (It)
2 killed, 85 injured
Release of TCDD
1968 115,000 people exposed
Amsterdam (Nl)
Explosion oiltanker
1977
in refinery
Brindishi (It)
13 killed, 2 injured
VCE steamcracker
1969 3 killed, 107 injured
Bingen (Ge)
500 l endosulfan leak
600 km water pollution 1971 1978
20 million fish killed Amsterdam (Nl) San Carlos (Sp)
Butadiene explosion BLEVE road tanker 11
9 killed, 22 injured 216 killed, 200 injured
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 ● The Third Industrial Revolution, or the Digital Revolution, refers to the
advancement of technology from analog electronic and mechanical devices
to the digital technology available today.

● 3IR started during the 1980s and is ongoing.

● Advancements during the Third Industrial Revolution include:

- the personal computer;

- internet and

- information and communication technology (ICT).

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IMPACT OF 3IR ON SAFETY

● Development of advanced calculations codes

• Computational Fluid Dynamics & Finite Element models
• Dynamic dispersion modelling
• Explosion modelling
● Development of Risk based approaches
• Quantitative Risk Assessments
• Fault Tree Analysis
• Risk Based Inspection
• …
● Computer aided methods
• HAZOP
• Accident Databases
• …..
CURRENT REQUIRED FIELD OF KNOWLEDGE FOR THE
SENIOR PROCESS ENGINEER: A COMPLEX SUBJECT

Specific methods, techniques and knowledge

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Key issues related to Technological Risk Management
Asset integrity is the capability to operate an asset so that it safeguards life and
environment whilst meeting production objectives during the operational phase
of its lifecycle

o Compliance with
o Safe Operation approved standards
Operating o Meeting project
o Procedures Design
o People competency Integrity requirements
Integrity o Incorporating
recommendations
from TRA in the design

Integrity
Leadership

o Compliance with
o Plant Inspection Construction project specs
Technical o Materials
o Maintenance Integrity
Integrity QA/QC

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 ANTWERP REFINING AND PETROCHEMICAL COMPLEX

16
17
Deep Offshore 18
 YAMAL LNG
 Yamal LNG is Russian OPCO: 51% Novatek,
20% Total and Chinese 20% CNPC and 9%
Silk Road Found
 TOTAL owns19% of Novatek
 600 km north the artic circle
 2 montsh without sun
 2 months without night

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20
FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION (4IR)

● The Fourth Industrial Revolution builds on the Digital Revolution, representing new
ways in which technology becomes embedded within societies and even the human
body.

● The Fourth Industrial Revolution is marked by emerging technology breakthroughs in a

number of fields, including robotics, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, quantum
computing, biotechnology, the IoT, 3D printing and autonomous vehicles.

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PROCESS SAFETY AND 4TH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

● Communication • Real time discussion and monitoring

● Big Data • Automation of hazard identification studies (e.g. Hazop)

- Digitalization of data • Identification of weak signals
- All data is linked • Big Data Mining (Huge amounts of data can be analyzed easily)
• Geo-localization of people

● Robotics
- Drones  Inspection of equipment
 Measurement of gas compositions
- Movement of robots  Humans can be removed from hazardous interventions

● Artificial Intelligence • Potential high risk deviations can be stopped automatically by robots
• Advanced trouble shooting

● Nano-technology  Intelligent materials and machines (auto-detection) before failure

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INDUSTRY 4.0

● Industry 4.0 is a name for the current trend of automation and data exchange in
manufacturing technologies. It includes cyber-physical systems, the IoT, cloud
computing and cognitive computing.

● Industry 4.0 creates what has been called a "smart factory". Within the modular
structured smart factories, cyber-physical systems monitor physical processes,
create a virtual copy of the physical world and make decentralized decisions.

Digital is one of the 3 challenges we have to face in the future

CEO speech @ Total Review Convention (March 15)

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ROADMAP FOR BECOMING A DIGITAL OIL AND GAS COMPANY

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 Holding
DIGITAL ORGANIZATION WITHIN TOTAL Chief Digital Officer
HSE Digital Reference
Group Data Officer
(senior manager in
Innovation Ecosystem
HSE Direction)
Digital Work Practice

Exploration & Refining & Marketing & Gas, RE

Production Chemicals Services & Power
Transverse

Close to Business DIGITAL

SUB-SURFACE

Hand in Hand with IT DIGITAL INDUSTRIAL

DIGITAL MARKETING

DIGITAL WORK PRACTICE

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 REAL EXAMPLE: DIGITAL@REFINERY_1 ROADMAP 2018-2019
Thematic Operational challenges Solutions

 Deploy mobile solutions to improve operators,  Use of drones for inspection (flare, tanks)
maintenance and inspections round  Deploy wireless sensors
Connectivity
…
 Retrieve missing process data

 APC plan prioritised per unit

 APC development  Trendminer
 Increase efficiency of trouble shooters,  Prism
 Increase plant availability and limit unplanned  ….
Asset
failures
performance

 Minimize engineering rework / improve quality and

decrease project costs
 Quantum project
Project efficiency

 Roadmap 2018-2019 with implementation of

quick wins ideas (14 prioritised) after a
successful Digital challenge via build’inn.
 Reduce unproductive time losses
 TIM apps selected for deployment #Myshift
Enhanced afterwards #Mynotif next #MyValve followed
operator by #MyPairing

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WORLDWIDE DRILLING REAL TIME SUPPORT CENTER (RTSC)

Houston 24/7
4 screens/rig
2 Drilling Analysts
Daily drilling reports
Alerts notifications

Pau CSTJF
Drilling engineers and analysts
Daily drilling analysis
Performance Monitoring
Real Time simulation
Improvement proposals

35 Wells monitored
Safer operations
Faster decisions
Learning curve accelerator

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DAILY REAL TIME COMMUNICATION WITH ALL CONTROL ROOMS
 CENTRAL CRISIS ROOMS MAKE EXTENSIVE USE OF 4IR TECHNOLOGIES

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 “Data is the backbone of TOTAL’s Digital Industrial Strategy, and the base of a set of services to be developed”

Services Owned, Controlled and Reliable Data Services

All strategic Physical

Digital Assets have a trusted IOT Data Driven
Collaborative Digital twin for Asset Performance
Environment Performance
Remote services Analytics
Asset lifecycle All strategic platforms and people connected Predictive capabilities
around a new operating model New Business
Extended enterprise
Models

efficiency standardization #cost #availability

Services
#operational excellence Mobility #cost
Enhanced
Digital Real-time data
Continuity Operator

collaboration
Simplification

Performance gains

3D
visualization

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 Quantum is the Digital Twin of an installation (greenfield & existing asset)

Quantum is an information management program enabling instant

visualisation of the installation with access to
all key up to date technical and operational information

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 Unification of different data platforms into ONE search platform
50 Million Documents (target 12-18 months)

Portail Matrix
Portail Touareg 10 Millions docs
6 Millions docs

Portail Reflex
Portail CTG
Portail RefMS
200 k docs

Portail SEEN
28 Millions docs

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DATA MINING OF BIG DATA

Common ground = Data Analytics

“Be an energy leader in

the CSE and data “Data is the backbone of
science field by 2023” TOTAL’s Digital Industrial Strategy,
R&D DIGITAL and the base of a set of services
to be developed“
CSE DDAP
Computational Data-Driven Asset
Science Performance
Engineering Data
Analytic Data
s Incubator

“Leverage data as an enterprise asset:

DSI implement a data-centric
architecture allowing for insightful
exploitation of data originating from
existing or new sources of data including
IoT“

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DRONES:
THICKNESS MEASUREMENT ON VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL SURFACES

• Arms to allow contact with surfaces

• Rotor to maintain drone in contact
• Equipped with specific ultrasonic module
• Water coupling system to allow measurement

Drone positioning Data acquisition Live monitoring and recording

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 DJI M200

High Frequency: 24Hz Real time, wireless, on

High Sensitivity ground concentration
CO2 @ 0.5 ppm
monitoring
CH4 @ 1ppb
saturation issues @ 20 ppm
Possibility to built a “Bi-range” device

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● R&D project (4 M€) by European consortium
(Universities + Industries), funded by EU.
● The hybrid drone shall fly to area, land & move on HMR (Hybrid Mobile Robot)
piping.
● For piping inspection:
- UT spot, UT grid, UT scan
- Close Visual Inspection, Corrosion profile
● 2 prototypes to be developed HMR & HRA HRA (Hybrid Robot with Arm)

Participants: CREATE, FADA-CATAC, TOTAL, Chevron Oronite, DASEL, AIR, OUY, USE

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ROBOTICS

Robot for fire fighting

Humanoid robot

Robot for in-pipe

inspection

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TIM APPS | WORK DONE & 2018 EXISTING WORKPLAN
2017 2018
#MyShift
Dematerialize field rounds and send data to PI
#MyNotif
In 2018 additional apps and
Initiate maintenance notifications technical modules will
#MySafety
complete the TIM apps
Raise HSE observations store
#MyValves
Report valves status to DCS
#MyTracking
Temporary manage equipments
#MyHandover
Consolidate shift handover report
#MySupport
Assist remotely operators
#MyDoc
Access pre-selected documents
#MyCheck
Accept intervention execution quality
#MyPairing
Associate physical tags to equipment
SECE
Conducting SECE rounds
Workbook
Conducting inspection rounds
MyTeam 39
Manage users for all applications
GEO-LOCALIZATION OF PEOPLE

● Several new systems are currently be tested:

- Via safety shoes

- Via helmet

- …

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The concept is still the same but the way assets are designed,
constructed and operated are changing

o Compliance with
o Safe Operation approved standards
Operating o Meeting project
o Procedures Design
o People competency Integrity requirements
Integrity o Incorporating
recommendations
from TRA in the design

Integrity
Leadership

o Compliance with
o Plant Inspection Construction project specs
Technical o Materials
o Maintenance Integrity
Integrity QA/QC

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 4IR : NEW OPPORTUNITIES & ADDITIONAL RISKS

● Opportunities
- Weak signals can be detected very fast (« immediately »)

- Potential high risk deviations can be stopped automatically by robots

- Hazardous interventions can be done without physical presence of humans

- Huge amounts of data can be analyzed easily

- Intelligent materials and machines (auto-detection) before failure

● Additional Risks
- Loss of control over the installation (« digital runaway »)

- Lack of understanding of the processes

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 NEW TECHNOLOGIES BRING NEW RISKS

● In the cockpit there are three flight

computers and digital instrument
panels operating in parallel: two
primary systems and one backup. Each
system is fed by an independent set of
sensors.

● To industry outsiders, it is a shock:

“what could have brought down one of
Boeing’s newest, most technologically
sophisticated airplanes”?

● For sure that the experts during the

investigation will reveal « weak
signals » but in one of the most
regulated industries … after the
accident

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SUMMARY

● The Fourth Industrial Revolution is a reality

● There is no doubt that there will be an impact on how technological risks will
have to be managed
● Re-engineering of our current approach towards (process) safety is needed:
- Automation of hazard identification studies and risk assessments
- Use of advanced reality for training of operators
- Use of digital in all safety management activities (work permits, standards,
safety tours, safety meetings, learning, etc.)
- Extensive use of robots for high risk tasks

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