Calculations

Step 1 Score Predictor sheet based on data from 2016-2019 Reddit Surveys

Goal: Formula- 95% CI

Date based 95% CI Upper R2
Test * Score ** Goals Completed *** Data year Prediction Std. Dev. Lower Limit Limit weighted
Free 120 % 79 2016 244.45 4.33 235.97 252.94 245.26
Kaplan % 2017 238.77 3.00 232.89 244.64 238.77
NBME 12 2018 241.40 4.90 231.79 251.00 241.05
NBME 13 2019 243.04 2.94 237.27 248.81 242.38
NBME 15 AVERAGE 241.92 3.79 234.48 249.35 241.86
NBME 16
NBME 17 Study period
NBME 18 Start End Days
NBME 19 1
NBME 20
NBME 21
NBME 22
NBME 23
NBME 24 227
Rx %
UWSA1 241
UWSA2 239
Uworld % 74

* Use percentages for Free 120, Rx, Uworld, Kaplan (e.g. 80% enter as 80)
** LEAVE FIELD BLANK IF YOU DON’T HAVE A SCORE/DATE; only enter data into red boxes with blue background
*** Ensure your date of test completed is within the Study Period window; otherwise this will cause erroneous calculations. Can leave blank; will then not be inclu

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 Calculations

Summary: Predictions based on yearly survey results are in fields H4:H7, with an average calculated in H8. Predictions have remained mostly stable
values were used as weighting to correct the prediction, but has minimal effect (result in L8). The 2018 data also have calculations based on NBME
UWSA Ave, and UWSA+NBME Ave and associated R2 values (formulas from u/SchoolinMedSchool). These were calculated separately and is availa
comparison. The "goals" fields are merely for your own tracking of results and motivation (you can play with numbers to get an idea of how to get to y
score by looking at the averages of the first set of calculations below the line [results in fields H32:H49] when you put in sample scores above [C4:C2
that Date-adjusted method does not utilize R2.

DO NOT ENTER OR CHANGE ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE - THESE ARE USED FOR CALCULATIONS
Relevant R2 values for this person
Equations Test 2016 data 2017 data 2018 data *2019 Data Average Day of study 2016 data 2017 data*
Free 120 239.23 235.46 238.82 237.43848 237.74 - 0.2457 1
Kaplan % - - - - - - -
NBME 12 - - - - - - -
NBME 13 - - - - - - - -
NBME 15 - - - - - - - -
NBME 16 - - - - - - - -
NBME 17 - - - - - - - -
NBME 18 - - - - - - - -
NBME 19 - - - - - - -
NBME 20 - - - - -
NBME 21 - - - -
NBME 22 - - - -
NBME 23 - - - -
NBME 24 241.57779 241.58 - -
Rx % - - - - - - -
UWSA1 245.83 241.30 242.34 243.27178 243.19 - 0.3805 1
UWSA2 243.24 239.53 236.60 240.30233 239.92 - 0.4178 1
Uworld % 249.51 - 247.84 247.95206 248.43 - 0.4956 -
Ave 244.45 238.77 241.40 242.11 242.17 0 1.5396 3
*Not avail.
Needs updated formula No Data
* linear formulas used for some as polynomial formulas generated incompatible numbers

R2 values across all data sets [DO NOT CHANGE] calcs for sumproducts
2016 2017 * 2018 2019 Test 2016 data 2017 data 2018 data * 2019 data

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 Calculations

Free 120 0.2457 1 0.4726 0.56725001 Free 120 - - - -

Kaplan % 0.2225 - 0.3612 Kaplan % - - - -
NBME 12 0.5499 - - NBME 12 - - - -
NBME 13 0.5429 1 0.4054 0.30506273 NBME 13 - - - -
NBME 15 0.3559 1 0.433 0.4523107 NBME 15 - - - -
NBME 16 0.3561 1 0.605 0.65990441 NBME 16 - - - -
NBME 17 0.4132 1 0.567 0.41266385 NBME 17 - - - -
NBME 18 0.4404 1 0.5831 0.58918359 NBME 18 - - - -
NBME 19 - 1 0.5368 0.18728346 NBME 19 - - - -
NBME 20 0.55510944 NBME 20 - -
NBME 21 0.56325335 NBME 21 - -
NBME 22 0.61836969 NBME 22 - -
NBME 23 0.62034953 NBME 23 - -
NBME 24 0.58197428 NBME 24 - -
Rx % 0.0452 - 0.302 Rx % - - - -
Bold = R2
UWSA1 0.3805 1 from0.5247 0.61911115 UWSA1 - - - -
UWSA2 0.4178 1 0.6126
corrected 0.68081729 UWSA2 - - - -
Uworld % 0.4956 - 0.457
polynomial 0.65571641 Uworld % - - - -
data sum 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
* R2 correlation not avail. for 2017 data

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 Calculations

Date-
adjusted only Date × R2
(u/XXXmothe Correctio
rboyXXX) n Other calculations from u/SchoolinMedSchool:
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! NBME Ave: R2=0.6842
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! y=0.6361x + 98.626
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! UWSA Ave: R2=0.626
y=0.0047x2-1.54377x+340.86
241.08

Ave of the above 2

#DIV/0!

UWSA+NBME Predicted R2 of 0.714 (u/SchoolinMedSchool)

#DIV/0!

e blank; will then not be included in date-adjusted calculation.

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 Calculations

ave remained mostly stable. The R 2

calculations based on NBME Ave,
ted separately and is available as a
et an idea of how to get to your goal
ample scores above [C4:C21]). Note

2
values for this person Weighted sum by R2
2018 data 2019 data 2016 data 2017 data 2018 data 2019 Data
0.4726 0.56725 58.78 235.46 112.87 134.69
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0.5247 0.6191111 93.54 241.30 127.15 150.61
0.6126 0.6808173 101.62 239.53 144.94 163.60
0.457 0.6557164 123.66 - 113.26 162.59 AVERAGE
2.0669 2.5228949 245.26 238.77 241.05 242.38 241.86

Weighted sum by R2 +2016

date correction
2017 2018 2019
2016 DoT 2017 DoT 2018 DoT 2019 DoT 2016 R2 2017 R2 2018 R2 2019 R2 Date×R2 Date×R2 Date×R2 DatexR^2

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 Calculations

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2016 2017 2018 2019

Correctio Correctio Correctio Correctio
n Factor n Factor n Factor n Factor

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