Lecture 2

A Practical Method of Passenger Flow

Forecasting for Nanning-Guangzhou and
Guiyang-Guangzhou High-speed rail

Prof. Lei NIE 聂磊

School of Traffic and Transportation
Beijing Jiaotong University
北京交通大学交通运输学院
1
 OUTLINE
◼ Introduction

◼ Model

◼ Case study

◼ Reference
1. Introduction

3
 1. Introduction

 Nanning-Guangzhou and Guiyang-Guangzhou high-speed

rail operated in the end of 2014, but there aren’t
corresponding conventional rail lines so that the rail
passenger flow data of this region is lacked.
 It is hard to forecast the high-speed rail passenger flow
only based on the travel characteristics.
 To propose a feasible method to forecast passenger flow
of the new high-speed rail in the case of lack of data.
 The method is to compare this line with other operated
lines in terms of passenger traffic structure, line distances,
station numbers and distribution.
 Chooses Ningbo-Fuzhou high-speed rail which is similarly
lack of conventional rail as a reference. The differences in
economics and the population are taken into consideration
 Four-step method is applied to calculate the relevant
parameters.
1. Introduction

 The region contains 1089 OD pairs.

Guiyang
Ll Cm
Dy N
Sd Rj Cj
Sj Guilin
Wt
Yf Ys
Gc
Lz Zs Hz
Hj
Wz Gn
Pn Tx Yn Zq Guangzhou
Gp
Nanning
Lt Gg Njk Yf SsFs
Sz

Bh

Figure 1. Route Map of Nanning-Guangzhou High-speed rail

1. Introduction

 The high-speed rail operated in the end of 2014. The

ideal method to forecast passenger flow of high-speed
rail is based on the passenger flow features of this
region, like the airline and conventional railway
passenger flow.
 The known passenger flow of this region, like airline
and conventional railway passenger flow, is not enough
to forecast high-speed rail passenger flow.
 The data of airline daily flow in 2012 is just related to
only 48 OD pairs with a total passenger flow of 43,297.
 The related conventional railway is just covered part of
OD pairs and total daily flow is 39,000 persons.
1. Introduction

 A feasible method is to find another operated high-

speed railway to make a comparison.
 Ningbo-Fuzhou is chosen after comparing with different
high-speed rails. Passengers in both two regions didn’t
have convenient conventional railway for travel. The
station number and line length are quite similar in both
regions. The differences in terms of average station
distance, GDP and population could be calculated in
four-step method.
 1. Introduction

Table 1. Comparison of Ningbo-Fuzhou, Nanning-

Guangzhou and Guiyang-Guangzhou high-speed rail

Nanning-Guangzhou and
Ningbo-Fuzhou
Comparison Guiyang-Guangzhou high-
high-speed rail
speed rail
Conventional
None Little
Railway

559 (Nanning-Guangzhou)
Similarity Line length 569
857 (Guiyang-Guangzhou)

Station number 23 35
Average station 40 (Nanning-Guangzhou)
28.2
Difference distance 42.9 (Guiyang-Guangzhou)
GDP balanced unbalanced
Population balanced unbalanced
2. Model

9
 2. Model

The four-step methods

Trip Production:
 The original unit method is used in the phase of trip
production, which regards each person or family’s trip
production as an original unit. Hence, the total trip
production of the whole studied region is the result of
original unit timing total population or families which is
given by
y = k  pop (1)

 Where y is the total trip production of the whole studied

region, i.e. total flow of passenger flow; k is the original
unit, i.e. average trip production of every person and pop
is the total population of the studied region.
 2. Model

Trip Generation and Attraction

 The flow of trip generation Pi and trip attraction Aj are
regarded as linearly relevant to the corresponding
population, which are respectively given by

Pi = a + bX i (2)

Aj = c + dZ j (3)

 Where Xi and Zj are the population of regions covered by

station i and station j respectively and a, b, c, d are
parameters.
 2. Model

Traffic Distribution
 Modified Gravity model. In order to distinguish different
characteristics between online and overline passenger
flows, provincial and trans-provincial passenger flows, a
certain time is added to the travel time from station i to j
as penalty.
 
( popi  pop j )  ( gdpi  gdp j ) (4)
Tij = 
(tij + tl  l + t p  p )
 2. Model

Assignment
Based on the OD passenger flows, Dijkstra method is
applied to assign passenger flows to their shortest paths
without constraint of path capacity. Hence, the result of
traffic assignment in each segment can be finally gotten.
3. Case study

14
 3. Case Study
Trip Production Forecasting
 The passenger flow of Ningbo-Fuzhou high-speed rail in
2010 is 23,167,000 persons, while the population of the
corresponding region is 31,090,000 persons. Thus, the
average trip times are 0.75 times per person per year.
 The population covered by Nanning-Guangzhou and
Guiyang-Guangzhou high-speed rail is approximately 61.89
million persons.
 Assuming that Nanning-Guangzhou and Guiyang-
Guangzhou region has a similar trip times for each person,
the forecasting total flow of this region will be
approximately 45.99 million in 2015, which means the daily
average passenger flow will be 126,000 persons.

15
 3. Case Study
Trip Generation and Attraction Forecasting
 Symmetrical OD pairs have a same passenger flow. In
Ningbo-Fuzhou high-speed rail, its overline passenger flow
is less than online passenger flow.
 Based on Table 2 , Relationship between trip generation (or
trip attraction) of each station and the population covered
by it for online passenger flows can be well fitted by the
equation
Pin −line =684+10.1X in −line

16
 3. Case Study

Table 2. Population and trip generation (trip attraction) of

online nodes of Ningbo-Fuzhou high-speed rail in 2011

Nodes Population Trip generation / attraction

(million persons) (persons)
Ningbo 762 7474
Taizhou 599 4755
Wenzhou 793 9991
Ningde 282 3461
Fuzhou 716 8838

17
 Table 3. Population and trip generation (trip attraction) of
overline regions of Ningbo-Fuzhou high-speed rail in 2011
Nodes Population Trip generation / Nodes Population Trip generation
(million attraction (million /attraction
persons) (persons) persons) (persons)
Table 2. Population and trip generation (trip attraction) of online nodes
ofFuqing
Ningbo-Fuzhou
128 high-speed
278 rail in 2011
Jinan 685 34
Hanjiang 42 96 Taian 551 16
Putian 279 747 Qufu 64 18
Quanzhou 817 1684 Tengzhou 169 14
Jinjiang 107 797 Xuzhou 858 84
Xiamen 358 5903 Suzhou 536 11
Shanghai 2325 8337 Bengbu 318 41
Songjiang 170 151 Dingyuan 103 9
Jinshan 80 65 Chuzhou 393 19
Jiashan 57 128 Nanjing 806 356
Jiaxing 452 675 Zhenjiang 312 91
Tongxiang 68 247 Danyang 81 45
Haining 66 124 Changzhou 462 114
Yuhang 117 152 Huishan 43 6
Hangzhou 872 7251 Wuxi 640 208
Shaoxing 439 972 Suzhou 1049 218
Shangyu 78 255 Yangchenghu 7 16
Yuyao 84 751 Kunshan 72 171
Beijing 1990 157 Liuan 563 15
18
Tianjin 1327 42 Hefei 749 83
Table 4. Trip attraction of Nanning-Guangzhou
and Guiyang-Guangzhou rails in 2015
With above results, the total passenger flow is 126,000 persons
Nodes Population Trip Nodes Population Trip
(million generation (million generation
persons) /attraction persons) /attraction
(persons) (persons)
Nanning 762 10274 Sandu 32 1232
Guigang 444 6342 Rongjiang 34 1262
Guiping 194 3238 Congjiang 33 1249
Pingnan 72 1732 Sanjiang 37 1298
Tengxian 57 1545 Wutong 7 920
Wuzhou 311 4690 Guilin 1310 17069
Yunan 49 1445 Yangshuo 31 1224
Nanjiangkou 4 882 Gongcheng 29 1195
Yunfu 255 3992 Zhongshan 42 1363
Zhaoqing 423 6075 Hezhou 211 3448
Sanshui 63 1617 Huaiji 104 2126
Foshan 775 10435 Guangning 61 1588
Guangzhou 1367 17771 Beihai 166 2896
Guiyang 468 6639 Liuzhou 405 5861
Longli 23 1119 Yongfu 27 1176
Changming 2 864 Shenzhen 1119 1995
Duyun 48 1438 19
 3. Case Study
Traffic Distribution Forecasting
 There are 33 stations covered by Nanning-Guangzhou and
Guiyang-Guangzhou High-speed rails in initial stage. Thus,
a 33×33 matrix is used for traffic distribution. Table.5 to
Table.7 give three results of the flow between main OD
pairs,

20
 3. Case Study
Table 5-1. The daily average flow of online passenger flows in
Nanning-Guangzhou High-speed rail (persons)
Nn Gg Gp Pn Tx Wz Yn Njk Yf Zq Ss Fs Gz
Nn 0 985 464 230 187 552 83 44 193 276 71 479 996
Gg 985 0 312 156 130 378 53 25 135 191 50 337 690
Gp 464 312 0 90 75 216 33 26 76 111 30 192 397
Pn 230 156 90 0 40 116 16 0 39 57 13 97 206
Tx 187 130 75 40 0 113 17 17 38 53 12 91 197
Wz 552 378 216 116 113 0 57 39 128 177 42 303 645
Yn 83 53 33 16 17 57 0 25 81 116 30 197 411
Njk 44 25 26 0 17 39 25 0 42 75 21 150 283
Yf 193 135 76 39 38 128 81 42 0 322 76 544 1164
Zq 276 191 111 57 53 177 116 75 322 0 112 841 1841
Ss 71 50 30 13 12 42 30 21 76 112 0 185 448
Fs 479 337 192 97 91 303 197 150 544 841 185 0 3523
Gz 996 690 397 206 197 645 411 283 1164 1841 448 3523 0

21
 3. Case Study
Table 5-2. The daily average flow of online passenger flows in
Nanning-Guangzhou High-speed rail (persons)

Gy Ll Cm Dy Sd Rj Cj Sj Wt Gl Ys Gc Zs Hz Hj Gn
Gy 0 335 358 369 275 263 203 90 50 976 58 61 58 146 87 50
Ll 335 0 0 66 51 0 0 0 0 133 0 0 0 26 28 0
Cm 358 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 222 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dy 369 66 0 0 62 57 44 15 0 191 8 8 9 30 15 12
Sd 275 51 0 62 0 45 36 0 0 144 17 17 19 32 17 0
Rj 263 0 0 57 45 0 48 0 0 156 23 0 0 22 24 0
Cj 203 0 0 44 36 48 0 28 0 184 18 18 20 34 18 0
Sj 90 0 0 15 0 0 28 0 0 315 22 23 26 52 11 17
Wt 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 203 20 21 23 38 20 0
Gl 976 133 222 191 144 156 184 315 203 0 315 291 309 771 234 142
Ys 58 0 0 8 17 23 18 22 20 315 0 18 20 52 16 9
Gc 61 0 0 8 17 0 18 23 21 291 18 0 21 54 16 9
Zs 58 0 0 9 19 0 20 26 23 309 20 21 0 68 19 10
Hz 146 26 0 30 32 22 34 52 38 771 52 54 68 0 51 32
Hj 87 28 0 15 17 24 18 11 20 234 16 16 19 51 0 48
Gn 50 0 0 12 0 0 0 17 0 142 9 9 10 32 48 0
22
 3. Case Study
Table 5-3. The daily average flow of online passenger flows in
Nanning-Guangzhou High-speed rail (persons)

Gy Ll Cm Dy Sd Rj Cj Sj Wt Gl Ys Gc Zs Hz Hj Gn
Nn 380 55 0 73 67 71 71 135 10 198 11 10 114 266 82 69
0 7 2 6
Gg 212 31 0 47 38 53 40 78 45 110 67 63 64 160 56 41
3
Gp 103 0 0 20 20 28 21 28 24 520 29 30 34 92 33 22
Pn 49 0 0 14 15 21 16 19 18 284 14 15 22 50 17 15
Tx 42 0 0 6 13 19 14 17 16 236 15 16 19 48 17 12
Wz 134 25 0 28 30 21 32 49 36 694 47 49 62 159 54 44
Yn 38 0 0 9 0 0 0 13 0 112 6 7 8 29 35 29
Njk 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 0 0 0 21 22 0
Yf 128 27 0 22 16 23 35 21 19 349 25 26 30 79 99 84
Zq 211 48 0 44 42 41 45 36 34 600 37 39 50 127 161 135
Ss 59 14 0 12 15 12 17 9 9 175 9 10 14 31 38 37
Fs 378 78 128 76 67 99 84 70 54 108 64 67 90 216 275 245
2
Gz 757 146 153 153 143 186 168 137 10 211 13 14 183 455 583 487
3 9 0 1 23
 3. Case Study

Table 8. Forecasting results based on different range of

passenger flow
Rang of Number of OD passenger flow passenger flow
passenger flow OD percentage (persons per day) percentage

0-100 652 69.7% 20187 16.0%

100-500 232 24.8% 51433 40.8%
500-1000 36 3.8% 26039 20.7%
≥1000 16 1.7% 28341 22.5%
Sum 936 100.0% 126000 100.0%

24
 3. Case Study
 There are 13 big nodes

Table 9. Forecasting results based on node rank

Node rank passenger flow passenger flow

(persons per day) percentage

Big node - big node 74027 58.8%

Big node - small node 46935 37.2%
Small node - small node 5038 4.0%
Sum 126000 100.0%

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 3. Case Study
Traffic Assignment (1)
25000
23555
23197

19775
20000

15000
13721

11487
11005
10066 10155
9684
10000 9357 9141

6298 6298

5000

0
Nn Lt Gg Gp Pn Tx Wz Yn Njk Yf Zq Ss Fs
Lt Gg Gp Pn Tx Wz Yn Njk Yf Zq Ss Fs Gz

Figure 2. Traffic assignment results of Nanning-Guangzhou

26
high-speed rail
 3. Case Study
Traffic Assignment (2)
20000

18000
17034 17234
16702
16447 16301 16377
16000 15627

14000

12000
11226
10407
10000 9374
8790
8262
7808
8000 7241
7096
6649

6000

4000

2000

0
Gy Ll Cm Dy Sd Rj Cj Sj Wt Gl Ys Gc Zs Hz Hj Gn
Ll Cm Dy Sd Rj Cj Sj Wt Gl Ys Gc Zs Hz Hj Gn Zq

Figure 2. Traffic assignment results of Guiyang-Guangzhou

27
high-speed rail
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