Disruption Risk Assessment

The disruption risk assessment helps identify how healthy or at risk a busi-
ness model in your portfolio actually is and how much attention it needs to
be improved and de-risked. The assessment includes two dimensions:

1. Business model performance 2. Business model trend

strengths and weaknesses  opportunities and threats 
reveals positioning on exploit indicates likely future positioning
portfolio x-axis on x-axis

Performance – Strength and Weakness Assessment

Frontstage

Our products and services perform worse Our products and services are highly differ-
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3
than those of our competition. entiated and loved by our customers.

We lost over 20% of our customer base in the We increased our customer base by at least
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3
last six months. 50% over the last six months.

We are 100% dependent on intermediaries to We have direct market access and fully own
get products and services to customers and -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 the relationship with the customers of our
they are making market access difficult. products and services.

All our customers could theoretically leave All our customers are locked in for several
us immediately, without incurring direct or -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 years and they would incur significant direct
indirect switching costs if they left. and indirect switching costs if they left.

Backstage
Our key resources are significantly inferior
Our key resources can’t easily be copied or
to those of our competitors and they have
emulated for the next couple of years and
deteriorated over the last six months. -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3
they give us a competitive advantage (e.g.,
New entrants compete with new, better, or
intellectual property, brand, etc.).
cheaper resources.
The performance of our key activities is
Our key activities can’t easily be copied or
significantly inferior to that of our compet-
emulated for the next couple of years and
itors and has deteriorated over the last six -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3
they give us a competitive advantage (e.g.,
months. New entrants compete with new,
cost effectiveness, scale etc.).
better, or cheaper activities.

Over the last six months we lost access Our key partners are locked in for years
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3
to key partners. to come.

Profit Formula

We doubled our revenues over the last six

We lost over 20% of our revenues in the last
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 months and are growing significantly faster
six months.
than our competitors.

Our cost structure grew faster than revenues Our cost structure shrunk compared to
and is significantly less effective than that of -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 revenue growth and is significantly more
our competitors. effective than that of our competitors.

Our margins shrunk by over 50% in the last Our margins increased by at least 50% in
six months and/or are significantly lower the last six months and/or are significantly
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3
than those of our competition (e.g., over 50% higher than those of our competition (e.g.,
lower). over 50% higher).

COPYRIGHT: Strategyzer AG
Disruption Risk Assessment
The disruption risk assessment helps identify how healthy or at risk a busi-
ness model in your portfolio actually is and how much attention it needs to
be improved and de-risked. The assessment includes two dimensions:

1. Business model performance 2. Business model trend

strengths and weaknesses  opportunities and threats 
reveals positioning on exploit indicates likely future positioning
portfolio x-axis on x-axis

Trend – Opportunities and Threats Assessment

Trends Impact on Frontstage

New entrants are gaining traction with
Competition for our products and services is
cheaper, better, or substitute products
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 shrinking and our products and services are
and services that may make our business
likely to gain traction and benefit from that.
model obsolete.

The markets in which we are active are The markets in which we are active are
projected to shrink significantly over the -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 projected to grow significantly over the
coming years. coming years.

Various trends (tech, cultural, demographics) Various trends are making it harder for our
are reducing the friction for our customers to -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 customers to desert us and the friction for
leave us and never come back. them to leave is increasing.

Social and cultural trends that are projected Social and cultural trends that are projected
to grow are driving customers away from us -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 to grow are driving customers towards us
(e.g., sustainability, fashion, etc.). (e.g. sustainability, fashion, etc.)

Trends Impact on Backstage

Technology trends that substantially under- Technology trends that substantially

mine our business model or make it obsolete -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 strengthen our business model are
are gaining traction. gaining traction.

New regulations make our business model New regulations make our business model
significantly more expensive or impossible significantly cheaper or easier to operate
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3
to operate and give our competitors an and give us a competitive advantage over
advantage. our competitors.

Suppliers and value chain actors are Suppliers and value chain actors are
changing in a way that puts our business -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 changing in a way that radically strengthens
model at risk. our business model.

Trends Impact on Profit Formula

An economic downturn in the next six Our business model is resilient and would
months would be lethal to our business even benefit if an economic downturn
ECONOMIC -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3
model (e.g., due to high cost structure, happened in the next six months (e.g., due to
debt obligations, etc.). weak competitors).

Our business model depends on key Our business model does not depend
resources or other factors that may on key resources or other factors that
GEOPOLITICAL be affected by geopolitical or other -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 are affected by geopolitical or other
external forces (e.g., commodity prices, external forces (e.g., commodity prices,
trade wars, etc.). trade wars, etc.).

There are a significant amount of venture

There are little to no venture capital
VC FUNDING capital funding start-ups in our arena and -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3
funding start-ups in our arena.
this has grown over the last six months.

COPYRIGHT: Strategyzer AG