InaM2C18228 page 1 of 13

InaM2C18228
Summary Sheet

Team Control Number

InaM2C18228

Conflicts among groups often occur as a result of merely one or more people
spreading incorrect news both intentionally and unintentionally. In Indonesia, people often
received fake news, especially through social media. Fake news can be classified into 3 kinds
of groups, whether the news dies by itself after some time, dies after the true news debunks it,
or the news spreads continuously and uncontrollably, even after the true news is released.
Recently there was a woman activist who spread a news. The news caused some
political problems and it spread very fast through social media, including Facebook and
YouTube. After a few days, she confessed that the news was a lie. Although she had already
confessed, this seemingly petty lie has caused unimaginable consequences that even caught
nationwide attention. As a hoax has the ability to alter people’s mindset for the worst, it must
be stopped as soon as possible, before it can spreads uncontrollably. Therefore, creating a
model to predict how fake news spreads is a necessity.
We make an equation to classify fake news. This equation is based on disease
spreading model called SIR Model. We use SIR model with modification as an illustration of
the hoax spreading process from its appearance until its disappearance. Our model considers
the interest factor, content of the news, and spreading population, so it should be flexible to
any kind of social media in any condition. Therefore the equation need the majority
condition of the people at the shortest rate possible.
To prevent fake news spreading, we make a strategy based on personal analysis and
survey. The Survey was conducted on 541 respondents on 15th until 17th October 2018
through Google Form. The purpose of the survey is to find the best strategy to prevent the
spreading of fake news based on current society condition.
Although we neglect unpredictable conditions such as changes in population,
spreading through word of mouth, spreading through comments and tags, and many others
assumptions, our model is practical enough to classify fake news. With our model, people can
understand better how a hoax spreads and how to classify it.
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Introduction
Sir Winston Churchill once said, “Truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it and
ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.” A piece of news often becomes
incontrovertible as nowadays it is much easier to spread news than before, regardless of
whether it is real or fake.
Indonesia is listed as one of many countries with the most social media users.
Indonesian people frequently use social media to spread news, which unfortunately often
contains false news. By estimating the news spreading area and its spreading range as well as
considering the content of the news, we propose a model of calculation to describe the
process of spreading, to classify fake news into groups based on its conditions, and to
minimize the spread of fake news.

Problem Restatement
A hoax can be defined as fabricated false information that can mislead people, but is
served as if it is a series of facts. Fake news can be spread in many ways: through narration,
photos, or videos. According to liputan6.com, social media is the main media for fake news
to spread. It was proven through a survey of 1,116 respondents by Masyarakat Telematika
Indonesia. The survey proved that 62.8% of respondents received fake news from social
media and the rest from websites, televisions, print media, email, and radio.
Based on the survey we can conclude that social media plays a dominant role in the
spreading of fake news and its rapid spread. Even though there are people who are astute
enough compared to others who are gullible, sometimes they pass on a fake news because
they repeatedly receive the same news.
The spread of fake news can be classified as:
1. The news dies by itself after some time.
2. The news dies after the true news debunks it.
3. The news spreads continuously and uncontrollably, even after the true news is
released.
These problems lead us to do 2 tasks:
1. Determine the process and conditions to decide which group the fake news
belongs.
2. Determine the best strategy to prevent the spreading of fake news.

General Assumptions and Justifications

 The total population will not change.
This is because the calculations are based on one condition as its reference for
the calculation value to become stable. So, all changes, both in terms of increasing or
reducing the number of population area are considered as 0.

 Variables like comments and tags are ignored in the calculations.

We ignore the number of comments and tags because we assume that the
effect of a hoax spreading comes directly from the person who makes the fake news.
(the medium effect in the variable is ignored).
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 Social media is the only way to spread fake news, so any kind of word of mouth will
not be counted.
We ignore all forms of spread by word of mouth because it cannot be
predicted accurately. We also limit the kind of social media we use to make this
modelling more specific and targeted. It aims to get systematic calculations that
generate directly from the spread of fake news through social media.

 Fake news spreading pattern is similar to disease spreading pattern.

There are groups of people who spread hoaxes, people who get infected, and
people who give debunked news. It is very much similar to the disease spreading
pattern. Therefore, we use SIR model as a reference for our fake news spreading
formula.

 The debunked news will only spread after the fake news has reached a significant
number of users.
The debunked news will spreading only after the hoax becomes viral, because
people will verify the news if it is viral. For the data that is less accurate, we assume
that the debunked news will only spread about a day after the hoax spreads.

 The post spreads only among friends.

We assume that the range of news spreading is not public, in the sense that its
initial distribution can only be accepted by followers or friends in social media before
it spreads more widely. This aims to obtain a more specific scale of distribution.
 Mutual friends are ignored.
We assume that there are not any same mutual friends in social media, because
the small number will not give big impact to the final result. Therefore, this number
can be ignored.

PROBLEM NO.1 - The Spreading Process of Fake News

1.1 Introduction of Model
Initially, we made a scheme to illustrate the process of hoax spreading.

Scheme 1.1 – Spreading Sample

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This data was obtained on Wednesday, 17th October 2018 from Facebook.
 A is the first spreader of fake news.
 The fake news is believed by some of A’s friends, but there is one of A’s friends who
spreads the fake news.
 The fake news then spread across the Facebook users one by one, until the true news
debunks it.

This is more or less how fake news spreading happens. It can be seen that the
dissemination process is similar to the virus spreading pattern. So, from a mathematical point
of view, we need to make the spreading pattern formula.
Therefore, we looked for factual data as examples. First, we decided to search the data
through surveys. Then, we browsed the data from the Internet.

1.2 Survey Analysis

The Survey was given to 541 respondents on 15th until 17th October 2018 in Google Form.
Questions & Results
1 You will watch / read / see a news, if..
 90.2% respondents read news if the content interests them.
 5.7% read news only if their friends suggest them
 4.1% read news from their region
It means that contents are very influential on the number of the
news readers.
2 What will you consider while you are watching a news on
YouTube?
 63.2% consider the amount of ‘views’
 36.8% are in favor with the amount of ‘likes’
We assume that the amount of ‘views’ in YouTube videos is equal
to the amount of ‘likes’ in Facebook posts. We also assume that the
amount of ‘likes’ in YouTube videos is the same with the amount of
shares in Facebook posts.
3 What do you do when you read a piece of news?
 70,6% like to read all of the materials in the news
 16,6% like to read only the title of the news
 12,8% are not interested in reading the news at all

4 Will you verify the news if you think that it is wrong?

 21.4% have a habit to always verify the news
 27% often verify the news
 33.5% seldom verify the news
 18.1% never verify the news
Therefore, more fake news will spread since it is not verified at first
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5 Do you often forward the news that you read?

 0.9% always forward the news
 37% sometimes forward the news
 41.4% rarely forward the news
 20.7% never forward the news
We can see that the number of people who do not forward the news
is fewer than people who forward the news. It is dangerous since
this can become the source of the fake news spreading.
6 What will you do when you know the news that you read is a
hoax?
 41.7% enquire other sources after a hoax is revealed
 20.6% check its truth with credible friends
 5.4% ask its accuracy to the news spreader
 30.4% do nothing because they do not believe the news from
the very beginning
 2% do nothing although they previously believe the news.
7 What content do you like?
 34.8% like entertainment
 18.5% like politics
 16.8% like technology
 13.1% like health
 8.7% like sports
 8.1% like education.

1.3 Theoretical Approach and Equation

We approach this problem using a similar concept as the spread of disease, known as
SIR Model. With the similar method, we assume that some people can spread the fake news
to multiple people although they cannot infect people who already knew the news. From this
method, we can calculate approximately how far fake news spread and how fake news is
classified.

1.3.1 SIR Model

SIR Model is a model that is used to determine a spread of disease
pattern. With some developments, we found a first set of dependent variables
that counts people in 3 categories:

S = the number of people who are susceptible to the hoax.

I = the number of people who receive the hoax.
R = the number of people who receive debunked news and or do not believe
the hoax.
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Each variable works as function of time, estimated in hours or days. So, we get
3 kinds of new variables: S(t), I(t), and R(t). To calculate how the progress of
the spreading overtime, a differential equation is used.
 The Susceptible Equation is as follows
𝑑𝑆
δ𝑆(𝑡) = = −µ𝑓𝑛 . 𝑆(𝑡). 𝐼(𝑡)
𝑑𝑡
 The Infected Equation is as follows
𝑑𝐼
δ𝐼(𝑡) = = µ𝑓𝑛 . (𝑆(𝑡). %𝐼 ). 𝐼(𝑡) − µ𝑡𝑛 . 𝐼(𝑡). 𝑅(𝑡)
𝑑𝑡
 The Recovered Equation is as follows
𝑑𝑅
δ𝑅(𝑡) = = µ𝑡𝑛 . 𝐼(𝑡). 𝑅(𝑡)
𝑑𝑡

1.3.2 Interest Ratio (μ)

In the differential formula, the spread constant is needed as a measuring
level or phase of changes. We analyze that there are variables which can affect
the spread constant.
- Spreading Area (A)
- Interest Factor (I)
- Content Rate (m)
Interest factor depends on the types of social media. The percentage for
calculation uses the result of the survey: comparison of 63.2% and 36.8%.
𝑛

𝑖 = ∑ 𝑥𝑘 %𝑘
𝑘=1

The value of m in this formula is affected by the content type. The content
priority order from the survey results in the data as follows:
1. Entertainment (m = 10)
2. Politics (m = 9)
3. Technology (m = 8)
4. Health (m = 7)
5. Sports (m = 6)
6. Education (m = 5)
By estimating the spreading area (A), interest factor (I), and content rate (m),
we form an formula to find interest ratio (μ) for every news, especially fake
news.
∑𝑛𝑘=1 𝑥𝑘 %𝑘 𝑚
µ= + log
𝐴 5
Information :
𝑥 = sub-factor of 𝑖
% = Percentage of sub-factor
m = content rate (5,6,…,10)
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This variable (μ) will act as a constant to classify each fake news into
each group. We estimate that this variable will have a range from 0 to 1. In
some conditions, μ can be more than 1 if the news is very viral. So, we can get
the conditions and scenarios on how the fake news goes into each group.

1.4 Solution Approach

From the theory and equation stated above, we summarize some conditions and
scenarios for each group:
1. The news dies by itself after some time.
Condition: μ come near to 0
Scenarios:
 The content is not popular.
 The hoax does not receive public interest, so it does not affect them.
 The hoax dies even without the true news being exposed.
2. The news dies after the true news debunks it.
Condition: μ is between 0 to 1
Scenarios:
 The content is quite popular.
 The hoax receives public interest, and soon the news of justification emerged
from those who know the original facts.
 The hoax then disappears after the debunked news occurs within a certain
period of time.
3. The news spreads continuously and uncontrollably, even after the true news is released.
Condition: μ come near or even more than 1
Scenarios:
 The content is very popular.
 The hoax greatly affects the public.
 The debunked news cannot cover the hoax because it has spread widely.

1.5 Implementation Formula

We try to connect the formula with the actual data as an example. We looked for data
from 2 social media, Facebook and YouTube. The data will be used as an example of
calculation to classify hoax in each category. The hoax spreading data is summarized as
follows:
Population
Content Source Like Share
Views Subs
1 Technology Facebook 146 892 1,201
2 Politics Facebook 1,000 1,241 141,618
3 Entertainment YouTube 3,700 - 172,129 195,490
4 Politics YouTube 10,000 - 1,700,000 596,000
Table 1.5.1 – Example of Hoax Data
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By using the equation stated before (µ) and data stated above, the spread of the hoax can be
plotted. So we get the result as follows :
 Example 1
µ = 0.55427, so this goes into 2nd group.
 Example 2
µ = 0.26296, so this goes into 2nd group.
 Example 3
µ = 0.94094, so this goes into 3rd group.
 Example 4
µ = 0.88944, so this goes into 2nd group.
This is in accordance with reality in public, where the 2nd type of hoax is the most numerous.

1.6 Graph Scheme and Analysis

It is certain that there will be other news which give correction to the hoax. The process
of this spreading can be described in the form of cartesius of differential equation. There will
be a change line which indicates the hoax spreading from the beginning until the end.
 The Susceptible Phase (δS(t) ) indicated with red line.
 The Infected Phase (δI(t) ) indicated with blue line.
 The Recovered Phase (δR(t) ) indicated with cyan line.

With MathLab Application, we make the graph scheme from SIR differential equation. The
results are stated below:

Percentage

Time (days)
Graphic 1 – Phase of Changes without Recovery

S(t) line shows the changes of people who are susceptible to hoax. Changes on S(t)
line is equal to I(t) line, where those who are susceptible will become the infected. There is
no changes on R(t) line, because there are no debunked news yet.
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Percentage

Time (days)
Graphic 2 - Phase of Changes with Recovery
When the debunked news appears, the changes on R(t) line will start to show up.
Obviously, R(t) line will start from 0 because the debunked news will appear after a hoax
becomes viral. But, the changes on I(t) line will not be as big as the changes on S(t) line,
because not everyone will spread the hoax.

This scheme above is one of the examples of hoax spreading pattern that was obtained from
this following data:
Population
Content Source Like Share
Views Subs
Hoax YouTube 10,000 - 1,700,000 596,000

Debunked News YouTube 14,000 - 3,557,041 1,500,000

Source and content of the news are not included. %𝐼 = 58.6%

PROBLEM NO. 2
Strategy to Prevent the Spreading of Fake News
Based on our survey and analysis we propose some strategies to prevent hoaxes. They are
important in order to avoid the negative effects of hoaxes.

 Official sites should explain the original information as clear as possible.

According to our survey, people tend to read all of the materials in the news.
This fact is very important because it shows that people do not read other sources to
compare the information. Furthermore, official sites like Liputan6, Kompas, and
Detik should provide the same information without contradictions. Different
information could lead people to debate about which information is true or false.
Those debates will end up people searching the truth in some other irresponsible sites.
This is proven by our survey of 541 respondents about what they will do when they
receive fake news. So, official sites should be the only trusted sites.
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 Comment section in official sites should be used as optimal as possible.

People who comment in official sites should be responded immediately so that
they immediately get the official confirmations and do not make other assumptions
which can possibly lead to fake news. Therefore, news agency operator must work
optimally so that hoaxes will not be formed only because certain people feel they are
better informed than others.

 The government should arrange and review laws that regulate sanctions for
Internet users who spread negative content.
There are 2 articles that regulate the dissemination of news information:
 Article 45A paragraph 1 about the dissemination of false information.
 Article 45A paragraph 2 about the dissemination of information that causes hate.
The government should be assertive in giving sanctions for those who violate the
articles. Public also needs to be more understanding in filtering information and
adhering the government regulations.

 Giving counseling to the public in a form of an explanation about the

consequences of spreading a hoax.
By providing counseling, we can give a sense of awareness to the public so
that the case of spreading a hoax decreases. If someone gives a hoax to someone else,
that person can be caught into criminal law that can harm themselves. Besides
harming themselves, spreading a hoax can also harm others.

 Some useful information for the users:

Report fake news through the tool provided in each social media, like using
the “Report” button in Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, etc. You can also report fake
news to the Minister of Information and Communications by sending an email to
aduankonten@mail.kominfo.go.id

Strengths and Weaknesses

The result of this modelling can be used as the determinant for hoax spreading pattern
and its debunked news. The condition found in our model can be regarded as factual, due to
its flexibility to adapt many variations of spreading at any kinds of social media. The formula
can be improved to get more accurate result.
The formula for finding µ is easy to calculate because it has a fixed percentage to find
the result. The percentage can be found in the Internet or based on surveys. Every existing
interest factor can also be included in the formula. So the formula becomes flexible for many
kinds of social media.
However, there are some weaknesses in our modelling. The accurate μ value (for
YouTube) can only be achieved under normal condition, where the number of subscribers is
bigger than the number of viewers. Although the case rarely happens, sometimes the µ can
have a value more than 1 if the viewers is much more than the subscribers.
Our model is also made based on a lot of assumptions, but it does not estimate the
sudden change. This may cause our calculations to differ from the real conditions and impact
the accuracy. But, this model is already capable enough to estimate the spreading of a hoax.
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Conclusion and Future Work

The improvement of SIR Model can be used as the basic guidance to understand the
process of hoax spreading. Through the constant value of its spreading, a hoax can be
classified into 3 kinds of groups as requested. The formula we created considers the factors of
interest, content, and spreading population. By using our model, we can understand how a
hoax spreads and how to stop a hoax spreading.
For further development, we will optimize the usage of SIR Model to calculate a more
accurate spreading constant (interest ratio). Anticipation for other factors such as uncommon
condition and changes on spreading pattern can also be taken into calculation to reduce the
relative error.
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References

Anonymous. 2018. Survey Mengenai Penyebaran Berita Hoax

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1H5jnyX0DSypmA1IyNVok1IigUmzlQ5Mz9BbJ9obd2M4
/edit?chromeless=1#responses
Ayuwuragil, Kustin. 2018. Youtube Jadi Aplikasi Media Paling Populer di Indonesia.
https://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20180406202852-213-288967/youtube-jadi-
aplikasi-media-paling-populer-di-indonesia 20 Oktober 2018
D. Smith, L. Moore, (n.d). The SIR Model for Spread of Disease - The Differential Equation
Model.https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-
the-differential-equation-model
Hidayat, Mochamad Wahyu. 2018. 3 Media Sosial Favorit Pengguna Internet Indonesia.
https://www.liputan6.com/tekno/read/2634027/3-media-sosial-favorit-pengguna-internet-
indonesia
Librianty, Andina. 2018. Survei: Media Sosial Jadi Sumber Utama Penyebaran Hoax.
https://www.liputan6.com/tekno/read/2854713/survei-media-sosial-jadi-sumber-utama-
penyebaran-hoax
Pertiwi, Wahyunanda Kusuma. 2018. Riset Ungkap Pola Pemakaian Medsos Orang
Indonesia
https://tekno.kompas.com/read/2018/03/01/10340027/riset-ungkap-pola-pemakaian-medsos-
orang-indonesia
Putri, Vindiasari. 2018. 6 Aturan di UU ITE ini perlu kamu tahu agar aman saat bermedsos
https://www.brilio.net/serius/6-aturan-di-uu-ite-ini-perlu-kamu-tahu-agar-aman-saat-
bermedsos-170707d.html
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Appendix
MathLab Coding

File sir3.m File de3_rhs.m

global b k function df = myfun(t, f)

close all; b = 0.889437;
clear all; k = 0.888721;
clc; s = f(1,:);
i = f(2,:);
s0=1 r = f(3,:);
i0=1e-5
r0=2e-5 df = [-b*s*i;
b*(s*0.586)*I - k*i*r;
w0=[s0,i0,r0]'; k*i*r];
[t,w]=ode23('de3_rhs',[0,50],w0);
s=w(:,1); i=w(:,2); r=w(:,3); end.
plot(t,s,'r')
hold on
plot(t,i,'b')
plot(t,r,'c')
title('SIR solutions')
legend('s(t)','i(t)','r(t)')

The Differential Equation

𝑑𝑆
δ𝑆(𝑡) = = −µ𝑓𝑛 . 𝑆(𝑡). 𝐼(𝑡)
𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝐼
δ𝐼(𝑡) = = µ𝑓𝑛 . (𝑆(𝑡). %𝐼 ). 𝐼(𝑡) − µ𝑡𝑛 . 𝐼(𝑡). 𝑅(𝑡)
𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝑅
δ𝑅(𝑡) = = µ𝑡𝑛 . 𝐼(𝑡). 𝑅(𝑡)
𝑑𝑡
With :
µ𝑓𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑎𝑘𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑤𝑠
µ𝑡𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑤𝑠
δ for change of phase