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Characterization of the distribution of physical and mechanical properties of

rocks at the Tutupan coal mine, South Kalimantan, Indonesia

Conference Paper · September 2013

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 Rock Mechanics for Resources, Energy and Environment – Kwaśniewski & Łydżba (eds)
© 2013 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-1-138-00080-3

Characterization of the distribution of physical and mechanical properties

of rocks at the Tutupan coal mine, South Kalimantan, Indonesia

M.A. Azizi
Mining Engineering Department, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia
Mining Engineering Department, Trisakti University, Indonesia

S. Kramadibrata & R.K. Wattimena

Mining Engineering Department, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia

I.D. Sidi
Civil Engineering Department, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia

ABSTRACT: Uncertainties of factors that influence slope stability have been acknowledged by many geotech-
nical engineers, and these are drawn from the characterization of the geotechnical parameters of the slope. The
characterization is associated with a process of identifying the distribution of random variable values used in
the design of a single slope of an open mine, and also part of the probabilistic method which is an alternative
approach in estimating the stability of a slope with a Failure Probability value (FP). This paper explains the char-
acterization process using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) method, which will determine the most appropriate
function for the distribution of the random variable. The characterization results can be used in determining the
Safety Factor including the level of confidence and Probability of Failure based on the best fitting function.

1 INTRODUCTION distribution functions, namely: normal, lognormal,

Slope design has over the years become the domain
of geotechnical engineers. While this has benefited
the technology of theslope design processes, it has
also separated the the mine design engineers from the
responsibility of the risk versus reward relationship.
Given the uncertainties that prevail within the
geotechnical discipline, there always exists a proba-
bility that a slope may not perform aspredicted, and in
the worst case can result in a catastrophic failure.
The rock slope stability analysis affected by the ran-
dom input parameters such as internal friction angle,
cohesion, water pressure, seismic acceleration and
density, which cannot be properly represented by a sin-
gle value as input parameters in slope stability analysis.
The uncertainty in the values of rock mass properties
is a major factor in slope stability analysis.
Each input parameter has a certain distribution
function. There are several methods used in character-
izing a data distribution, namely: Chi-Square Method,
Kolmogorov-Smirnov method, and the method of
Anderson Darling. This paper uses the Kolmogorov-
Smirnov method. The principle of this method is based
on a comparison between the experimental cumula-
tive distribution function and cumulative distribution
theoretical assumptions.
The 4 assumptions of the cumulative distribu-
tion function will be compared with the empirical
beta, gamma.
The results of the characterization process will be
used for the calculation of the safety factor and fail-
ure probability of slopes, and the distribution data are
obtained from Tutupan Coal Mine, South Kalimantan,
Indonesia.
2 BASIC THEORY
2.1 Probability distribution function
Probability distribution function describes the spread
of a random variable that is used to estimate the prob-
ability of the occurrence of a parameter value. It has
typical and unique properties of distribution that make
one function different from others. But this does not
rule out the possibility that a distribution function is
a derivative from another function. For example, the
exponential distribution function is a special form of
the gamma distribution function withshape parameter
(a) is 1. Likewise, a uniform distribution function is
a special form of the beta distribution function with
shape parameter values α = 1 and β = 1. A triangu-
lar distribution function is also a special form of the
beta distribution function with shape parameter values
α1 = 1 and α2 = 2.
This paper employs 4 assumed continuous distri-
bution functions, i.e. normal, lognormal, beta, and

213
Table 1. Assumed probability density function (Tse, 2009). Table 2. Critical value (Tse, 2009).

Distribution Probability density function Mean & Varians Significance level α 0.10 0.05 0.01

x−µ 2 1.22 1.36 1.63


1 −1
Normal fx (x) = √ e 2 σ
µ Critical value √ √ √
σ 2π σ2 n n n
−∞ < x < ∞
1
ln x−µ 2 µ+ σ2


1 − 21
Lognormal fx (x) = √ e σ
e 2
xσ 2π 2 2
e2µ+σ (eσ −1 )
x>0
xα1 −1 (1 − x)α2 −1 α1 rejected. The equation of this cumulative distribution
Beta f (x) = ;
B (α1 , α2 ) α1 + α 2 function is as follows:
0≤x≤1 α1 α2
f (x) =0, x others (α1 + α2 )2 (α1 + α2 + 1)2

xα−1 e−x/β
Gamma f (x) = ;x>0 αβ
βα Ŵ (α)
f (x) =0, x others αβ2

x1 , x2 , . . . , xn are the values of the sample data that is

already set, and n is the sample size.
In the K-S test, the maximum difference between
Sn (x) the and F(x) for all ranges of x is a measure of the
difference between assumed theoretical distributions
and experimental data distribution. The maximum
difference of both distributions can be written as
follows:

Theoretically Dn is a random variable whose distri-

Figure 1. Probability Distribution Function.
gamma. These are considered to represent the prop-
erties of the distribution of the random variables (see
Table 1).
Figure 1 describes a Probability Density Function
(PDF) and Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF).
Probability density functionsexplains the area in which
the relative probability of a random number can be
assumed to be a unique value compared to the other
value. Failure probability (FP) is determined from
the distribution of the safety factor. The area under
the curve (FK < 1) is defined as a failure probability
value.
bution depends on n. To a certain significance level
α, K-S test compares the maximum difference of the
observations in above equation with the critical value
Dαn . Table 2 describes the critical value with a particular
significance level α. Thus with a significance level α,
the null hypothesis is rejected if Dn is higher than the
critical value. To facilitate this method assisted with
Matlab software Ver.7.12.0.
When all functions have a Dn value lower than the
critical value, it can be retested using 2 indicators,
i.e. Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian
Information Criteria (BIC). The Akaike information
criterion, denoted by AIC, proposes to penalize large
models by subtracting the number of parameters in the
model from its log-likelihood. Thus, AIC is defined as:

2.2 Fitting distribution function

If a theoretical distribution has been assumed, then
the validity of the assumed distribution could be con-
firmed or refuted by a statistical test with goodness
of fit. There are several methods to test the goodness
of fit of some assumed distribution functions, i.e. Chi
Square method, Kolmogrov-Smirnov (K-S) method,
and Anderson-Darling method. This paper only dis-
cusses the K-S method. The basic procedure of this
method includes a comparison between experimental
and theoretical cumulative frequency distribution of
the types of assumed distributions. If the difference of
both frequencies is higher than those of a certain sam-
ple size, the assumed theoretical distribution will be
where log L(θ̂; x) is the log-likelihood and p is thenum-
ber of estimated parameters in the model. Based on this
approach the modelwith the largest AIC is selected.
The above problem of the AIC can be corrected by
imposing a differentpenalty on the log-likelihood. The
Schwarz information criterion, also calledthe Bayesian
information criterion, denoted by BIC, is defined as:
The details of these methods can be seen in Tse
(2009).

214
2.3 Monte Carlo simulation
This method effectively simulates the response of the
SF performance function to randomly select discrete
values of the component variables. The process is
repeated many times to obtain an approximate discrete
PDF of the resulting SF values. The component ran-
dom variables for each calculation are selected from a
sample of random values that are based on the selected
PDF of the random variables. Although the PDFs can
take on any shape, the normal, lognormal, beta and
gamma distributions are among the most favored for
the analysis.
It should be noted that each Monte Carlo simula-
tion will use a different sequence of random values,
and the resulting probabilities, means, variances, and
histograms will be slightly different. As the number of
trials increases, the differences will become smaller. Figure 2. Empirical CDF.
Because the Monte Carlo simulation requires a
large number of calculations, it often has been viewed
as a less desirable option than the Taylor series or point
estimation method. However, with the general avail-
ability of faster desktop computers, the Monte Carlo
approach has gained wider acceptance due to its inher-
ent simplicity and the ability to use existing computer
programs with only minor modifications. Details of
this method can be read in Abramsom et al. (2002),
Baecher et al. (2003), and Tse (2009).

3 DATA COLLECTION & METHODOLOGY

Data gathering of the physical and mechanical prop-

erties of the lithology (coal, mudstone and sandstone)
of Tutupan coal mines, South Kalimantan, Indonesia
was carefully conducted. These properties include unit
weight, cohesion, and internal friction angle. The num- Figure 3. Overlay empirical and assumed theoretical CDF.
ber of data from each lithology consists of 10, 33 and
16 for coal properties data, mudstone properties data,
and sandstone properties data respectively. Table 3. The results of fitting test on cohesion of mudstone.
Furthermore, the fitting test of K-S method was
Statistical
done using Matlab software Ver.7.12.0. By using equa-
parameter Normal Lognormal Beta Gamma
tion [1], the empirical data representation can be done
by sorting the data from smallest to highest value, Mean 0.191 0.193 0.191 0.191
which produces a histogram in the form of CDF (See Dn 0.096 0.118 0.095 0.096
Figure 2). Critical value 0.237 0.237 0.237 0.237
In the K-S method, the empirical distribution func- Log-likelihood 46.111 42.632 45.543 45.147
tion was compared with the 4 assumptions in the AIC 44.111 40.632 43.543 43.147
theoretical distribution function, i.e. normal, lognor- BIC 44.593 41.113 44.024 43.629
mal, beta, and gamma. If the distribution function of
the data is not actually, then Dn has a considerable
value. Thus, with a significance level α = 5%, the null
hypothesis is rejected if Dn is greater than the√critical value smaller than the critical value, the hypothesis is
value. The critical value for α = 5% is 1.36/ n. For then accepted.
example, a fitting test was conducted on the cohesion Besides that, we also have to see the AIC and
distribution of mudstone (see Figure 3). The amount BIC values of the 4 assumed theoretical distribution
of data is 33 and α = 5%, the critical value is 0.237. functions. By using equation [3] and [4], AIC and
To declare the assumptions of the functions fit and the BIC values can be determined. The largest value of
hypothesis is accepted, the Dn value must be smaller that distribution is normal distribution, i.e. respec-
than the critical value. The results of the fitting test on tively 44.111 and 44.593. Thus, it can be said that the
cohesion distribution of mudstone indicates that the 4 most appropriate distribution function is the normal
assumed theoretical distribution functions have a Dn distribution (see Table 3).

215
Table 4. The result of fitting test in rock properties of Table 5. The results of failure probability.
tutupan coal mine.
Lithology Coal Mudstone Sandstone
Statistical c φ γ
parameter (MPa) (Deg.) (kN/m2 ) Slope Height (m) 15 15 15
Slope Angle (deg.) 70 70 70
Mudstone SF Deterministic 5.5 2.7 2.8
Mean 0.169 23.6 22.68 SF Mean 5.5 2.8 2.8
Variance 0.004 23.5 0.38 Cohesion (kPa) 241 169 191
Std. Deviation 0.061 4.8 0.62 Cohesion (kPa) 57 68 66
Dn 0.096 0.090 0.324 Back Analysis
Critical Value 0.237 0.237 0.237 Deterioration (%) 76.3 59.8 65.4
Log-likelihood 46.11 −98.38 −30.42 FP (%) 0 1.3 0
AIC 44.11 −100.38 −32.42 FP (%) Back Analysis 56.5 46.2 49.8
BIC 44.59 −99.82 −31.93
Distribution Normal Normal Normal
Sandstone
Mean 0.191 27.8 21.48 • The results of the characterization of the properties
Variance 0.003 33.1 – of 3 rock lithology produce all types of variables
Std. Deviation 0.057 5.8 – tested had a normal distribution, except for the
Dn 0.144 0.121 – cohesion of coal that has a gamma distribution.
Critical Value 0.340 0.340 – • Characterization results are used to estimate the
Log-likelihood 23.54 −50.20 – value of the safety factor following the data distribu-
AIC 21.54 −52.20 – tion, which would further strengthen the confidence
BIC 22.34 −51.40 –
Distribution Normal Normal –
level of the FK value.

Coal
Mean 0.241 34.1 12.36 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Variance 0.003 5.4 –
Std. Deviation 0.051 2.3 – The authors would like to thank the committee ISRM
Dn 0.190 0.120 –
Critical Value 0.430 0.430 –
which gives the opportunity to present this paper, and
Log-likelihood 15.77 −22.13 – PT Adaro Indonesia for the support in providing data.
AIC 13.77 −24.13 –
BIC 14.77 −23.13 –
Distribution Gamma Normal – REFERENCES
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of rock. Only the cohesion of coalthat has gamma and Reliability John Wiley & Sons.
distribution, while others have normal distribution. Azizi, M.A., Kramadibrata, S., Wattimena, R.K. & Arif, I.
2010. Application of Probabilistic Approach on Slope
Stability Analysis, Annual Meeting of Indonesian Min-
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