Public Leadership Credential

Evidence for Decisions:

Causes and Consequences COURSE B OUTLINE
The big idea of the course is to get people to think carefully and systematically about how policies and programs
impact the world. A truly evidence-based policy takes into account what has worked and not worked in the past, and
can be evaluated for its impact. This requires us to define the causal chain and the counterfactual, identify and
evaluate the evidence to demonstrate impact, and account for alternative explanations and unintended
consequences of our policy decisions. By the end of this course, learners will be equipped with the tools to truly
detect evidence of the impact of policies on the world, and use these tools for better policies in the process.

Topic Content Assignments

Drawing out existing beliefs about Individual assignments

the world (priors) • Writing assignment
Priors and • Discussion
Week 1

Counterfactuals Understanding what would have

happened if a policy never existed Group assignments
(counterfactual) • Synchronous hour meeting
• Group case analysis
Tool: Theory of Change

Methods to translate priors into a Individual assignments

concrete representation of impact • Writing assignment
• Case analysis
The theory of change as a • Discussion
Week 2

Evidence for a representation of causal

Theory of Change mechanisms expected to produce
this impact
Focus on causal links and evidence
to confirm or negate causal links
Group assignments
• Synchronous hour meeting
• Group case analysis

Impact evaluation and the Individual assignments

approximation of the counterfactual • Case analysis
in the real world • Quiz
Week 3

Threats to the
Systematic ways to rule out Group assignments
Counterfactual alternative explanations • Synchronous hour meeting
• Group case analysis
Tool: Central threats to the
counterfactual
 Topic Content Assignments

Study designs for different goals, Individual assignments

resources, and timelines • Case analysis
• Quiz
Week 4

Introduction to matching,
Study Designs difference-in-differences, regression Group assignments
discontinuity, and randomized • Synchronous hour meeting
control trials • Group case analysis

Tools: Basics of 4 study designs

Rationale and strengths of Individual assignments

qualitative research and how it can • Writing assignment
Mixing Qualitative be incorporated into program • Case analysis
Week 5

evaluation
and Quantitative Group assignments
Methods Use of mixed methods for more • Synchronous hour meeting
rigorous understanding of a • Group case analysis
program or policy

Updating priors with new evidence Individual assignments

learned from evaluation • Peer review assignment
Week 6

Updating Your
Detection of unintended Group assignments
Priors consequences • Synchronous hour meeting
• Group peer consultations
Revisiting your theory of change

Materials
All course materials will be provided each week, including videos, readings, and assignment templates.

This course uses global examples from across sectors to help you develop your capacity for causal evidence.
Examples include global traffic congestion, US economic mobility, community health organizing in Tanzania and
Indonesia, Jamaican social programs, and many others.

Scoring
You will not receive a letter grade in this course. Instead you will receive Pass or No Pass based on your performance.
A small percentage of exceptional performers are recognized with Pass with Distinction. Scoring weights:
35% - Individual assignments and quizzes 25% - Participation
35% - Group assignments 5% - Community credit

Course Policies
See onlinelearning.hks.harvard.edu for full FAQs.

2019.01.15