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Normal Distribution
and Regression
Prepared by: Engr. Franz Ivan E. Serrato
Content of this module
● Normal Distribution
Required:
Probability that the
employee owes less
than 18,500
P(x<18500)
Normal Distribution
Example:
1. The average Pag-ibig salary loan for RFS Pharmacy Inc employee is Php 23,000. If the debt is
normally distributed with a standard deviation of Php 2,500. Find the probability that an
employee owes less than Php 18,500.
Given: Solution:
Mean, xത = 23,000 𝑥 − 𝑥ҧ
Standard Deviation, s = 2,500 𝑧=
𝑠
Required:
Probability that the
employee owes less
than 18,500
P(x<18500)
Normal Distribution
Example:
1. The average Pag-ibig salary loan for RFS Pharmacy Inc employee is Php 23,000. If the debt is
normally distributed with a standard deviation of Php 2,500. Find the probability that an
employee owes less than Php 18,500.
Given: Solution:
Mean, xത = 23,000 𝑥 − 𝑥ҧ
Standard Deviation, s = 2,500 𝑧=
𝑠
18500 − 23000
Required: 𝑧=
2500
Probability that the 𝑧 = −1.8
employee owes less
than 18,500 Is it to the left of z?
P(x<18500) Is it to the right of z?
Is it between zero and z?
Normal Distribution
Example:
1. The average Pag-ibig salary loan for RFS Pharmacy Inc employee is Php 23,000. If the debt is
normally distributed with a standard deviation of Php 2,500. Find the probability that an
employee owes less than Php 18,500.
Given: Solution:
Mean, xത = 23,000 𝑥 − 𝑥ҧ
Standard Deviation, s = 2,500 𝑧=
𝑠
18500 − 23000
Required: 𝑧=
2500
Probability that the 𝑧 = −1.8
employee owes less
than 18,500 Since the question asks
P(x<18500) the probability that x is
less than 18,500, the
solution should be the
area to the LEFT of z=-1.8
Normal Distribution
Example:
1. The average Pag-ibig salary loan for RFS Pharmacy Inc employee is Php 23,000. If the debt is
normally distributed with a standard deviation of Php 2,500. Find the probability that an
employee owes less than Php 18,500.
Given: Solution:
Mean, xത = 23,000 𝑥 − 𝑥ҧ
Standard Deviation, s = 2,500 𝑧=
𝑠
18500 − 23000
Required: 𝑧=
2500
Probability that the 𝑧 = −1.8
employee owes less
than 18,500 Since the question asks
P(x<18500) the probability that x is
less than 18,500, the
solution should be the From the table, the area between zero and
area to the LEFT of z=-1.8 z=-1.8 is 0.4641
Normal Distribution
Example:
1. The average Pag-ibig salary loan for RFS Pharmacy Inc employee is Php 23,000. If the debt is
normally distributed with a standard deviation of Php 2,500. Find the probability that an
employee owes less than Php 18,500.
Given: Solution:
Mean, xത = 23,000 𝑥 − 𝑥ҧ
Standard Deviation, s = 2,500 𝑧=
𝑠
18500 − 23000
Required: 𝑧=
2500
Probability that the 𝑧 = −1.8
employee owes less
than 18,500 Since the question asks
P(x<18500) the probability that x is
less than 18,500, the
solution should be the From the table, the area between zero and
area to the LEFT of z=-1.8 z=-1.8 is 0.4641
Required:
Probability that the age of a
random employee is in
the range between 35
and 46
P(35<x<46)
Normal Distribution
Example:
2. The average age of bank managers is 40 y/o, assume that the variable is normally distributed. if
the standard deviation is 5 years, find the probability that the age of randomly selected bank
managers will be in the range between 35 and 46 years old.
Given: Solution:
Mean, xത = 40 𝑥 − 𝑥ҧ
Standard Deviation, s = 5 𝑧=
𝑠
35 − 40
Required: 𝑧1 =
5
Probability that the age of a 𝑧1 = −1
random employee is in
the range between 35 46 − 40
𝑧2 =
and 46 5
P(35<x<46) 𝑧2 = 1.2
Normal Distribution
Example:
2. The average age of bank managers is 40 y/o, assume that the variable is normally distributed. if
the standard deviation is 5 years, find the probability that the age of randomly selected bank
managers will be in the range between 35 and 46 years old.
Given: Solution:
Mean, xത = 40 𝑥 − 𝑥ҧ
Standard Deviation, s = 5 𝑧=
𝑠
35 − 40
Required: 𝑧1 =
5
Probability that the age of a 𝑧1 = −1
random employee is in
the range between 35 46 − 40
𝑧2 =
and 46 5
P(35<x<46) 𝑧2 = 1.2
Correlation Analysis:
Correlation is a statistical method used to determine whether a relationship between variables
exists. A variable here is characteristic of the population being observed or measured.
Types of Relationships:
1. Simple
2. Multiple
Pearson Product Moment of Correlation
Data gathered needs to be treated statistically, Pearson Product Moment of Correlation is one of
the things we use to do it.
Correlation Analysis:
Correlation is a statistical method used to determine whether a relationship between variables
exists. A variable here is characteristic of the population being observed or measured.
Types of Relationships:
1. Simple
2. Multiple
Simple Relationship - in this relationship two variables are present, these are Independent Variables
and Dependent Variables
The correlation coefficient is defined as the covariance divided by the standard deviation of the
variables. This is the formula to be used:
𝑛 σ 𝑥𝑦 − (σ 𝑥)(σ 𝑦)
𝑟=
2 2
𝑛(σ 𝑥 ) − σ 𝑥 2 𝑛(σ 𝑦 ) − σ 𝑦 2
Pearson Product Moment of Correlation
Pearson Product-Moment of Correlation or simply correlation (Pearson r)
- It is the most widely used measure in statistics to measure the degree of relationship between
the linear related variables. The Pearson r correlation would require both variables to be
normally distributed. Correlation refers to the departure of two random variables from
independence.
The correlation coefficient is defined as the covariance divided by the standard deviation of the
variables. This is the formula to be used:
𝑛 σ 𝑥𝑦 − (σ 𝑥)(σ 𝑦)
𝑟=
2 2
𝑛(σ 𝑥 ) − σ 𝑥 2 𝑛(σ 𝑦 ) − σ 𝑦 2
In solving correlation, making a table will help our solutions easier and organized. The table looks
like this:
𝑥 𝑦 𝑥2 𝑦2 𝑥𝑦
… … … … …
… … … … …
σ𝑥 σ𝑦 σ 𝑥2 σ 𝑦2 σ 𝑥𝑦
Pearson Product Moment of Correlation
𝑛 σ 𝑥𝑦 − (σ 𝑥)(σ 𝑦)
𝑟=
2 2 2 2
𝑛(σ 𝑥 ) − σ 𝑥 𝑛(σ 𝑦 ) − σ 𝑦
In solving correlation, making a table will help our solutions easier and organized. The table looks
like this:
𝑥 𝑦 𝑥2 𝑦2 𝑥𝑦
… … … … …
… … … … …
σ𝑥 σ𝑦 σ 𝑥2 σ 𝑦2 σ 𝑥𝑦
Pearson Product Moment of Correlation
𝑛 σ 𝑥𝑦 − (σ 𝑥)(σ 𝑦)
𝑟=
2 2 2 2
𝑛(σ 𝑥 ) − σ 𝑥 𝑛(σ 𝑦 ) − σ 𝑦
In solving correlation, making a table will help our solutions easier and organized. The table looks
like this:
𝑥 𝑦 𝑥2 𝑦2 𝑥𝑦
… … … … …
… … … … …
σ𝑥 σ𝑦 σ 𝑥2 σ 𝑦2 σ 𝑥𝑦
𝑛𝐸 − 𝐴𝐵
𝑟=
(𝑛𝐶 − 𝐴2 )(𝑛𝐷 − 𝐵2 )
Note that this is only a strategy you can use to memorize the formula.
Relying on the actual formula is still way safer.
Pearson Product Moment of Correlation
Example:
The owner of a chain of fruit shake stores would like to find the correlation between atmospheric temperature and sales
during the summer season. A random sample of 12 days is selected with the results given below. Compute for the value
of r.
Pearson Product Moment of Correlation
Example:
The owner of a chain of fruit shake stores would like to find the correlation between atmospheric temperature and sales
during the summer season. A random sample of 12 days is selected with the results given below. Compute for the value
of r.
𝐱 𝐲 𝐱𝟐 𝐲𝟐 𝐱𝐲
σ𝐱 = σ𝐲 = σ 𝐱𝟐 = σ 𝐲𝟐 = σ 𝐱𝐲 =
Pearson Product Moment of Correlation
Example:
The owner of a chain of fruit shake stores would like to find the correlation between atmospheric temperature and sales
during the summer season. A random sample of 12 days is selected with the results given below. Compute for the value
of r.
𝐱 𝐲 𝐱𝟐 𝐲𝟐 𝐱𝐲
79 147
76 143
78 147
84 168
90 206
83 155
93 192
94 211
97 209
85 187
88 200
82 150
σ𝐱 = σ𝐲 = σ 𝐱𝟐 = σ 𝐲𝟐 = σ 𝐱𝐲 =
Pearson Product Moment of Correlation
Example:
The owner of a chain of fruit shake stores would like to find the correlation between atmospheric temperature and sales
during the summer season. A random sample of 12 days is selected with the results given below. Compute for the value
of r.
𝐱 𝐲 𝐱𝟐 𝐲𝟐 𝐱𝐲
79 147 6,241
76 143 5,776
78 147 6,084
84 168 7,056
90 206 8,100
83 155 6,889
93 192 8,649
94 211 8,836
97 209 9,409
85 187 7,225
88 200 7,744
82 150 6,724
σ𝐱 = σ𝐲 = σ 𝐱𝟐 = σ 𝐲𝟐 = σ 𝐱𝐲 =
Pearson Product Moment of Correlation
Example:
The owner of a chain of fruit shake stores would like to find the correlation between atmospheric temperature and sales
during the summer season. A random sample of 12 days is selected with the results given below. Compute for the value
of r.
𝐱 𝐲 𝐱𝟐 𝐲𝟐 𝐱𝐲
𝐱 𝐲 𝐱𝟐 𝐲𝟐 𝐱𝐲
𝐱 𝐲 𝐱𝟐 𝐲𝟐 𝐱𝐲
𝐱 𝐲 𝐱𝟐 𝐲𝟐 𝐱𝐲 𝑛 σ 𝑥𝑦 − (σ 𝑥)(σ 𝑦)
𝑟=
79 147 6,241 21,609 11,613 2 2 2 2
𝑛(σ 𝑥 ) − σ 𝑥 𝑛(σ 𝑦 ) − σ 𝑦
76 143 5,776 20,449 10,868
𝐱 𝐲 𝐱𝟐 𝐲𝟐 𝐱𝐲 𝑛 σ 𝑥𝑦 − (σ 𝑥)(σ 𝑦)
𝑟=
79 147 6,241 21,609 11,613 2 2 2 2
𝑛(σ 𝑥 ) − σ 𝑥 𝑛(σ 𝑦 ) − σ 𝑦
76 143 5,776 20,449 10,868 12(183,222) − (1029)(2115)
𝑟=
78 147 6,084 21,609 11,466 12(88,733) − 1029 2 12(380,887) − 2115 2
𝐱 𝐲 𝐱𝟐 𝐲𝟐 𝐱𝐲 𝑛 σ 𝑥𝑦 − (σ 𝑥)(σ 𝑦)
𝑟=
79 147 6,241 21,609 11,613 2 2 2 2
𝑛(σ 𝑥 ) − σ 𝑥 𝑛(σ 𝑦 ) − σ 𝑦
76 143 5,776 20,449 10,868 12(183,222) − (1029)(2115)
𝑟=
78 147 6,084 21,609 11,466 12(88,733) − 1029 2 12(380,887) − 2115 2
𝑟 = 0.9270572554
84 168 7,056 28,224 14,112
𝒓 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟑
90 206 8,100 42,436 18,560
𝐱 𝐲 𝐱𝟐 𝐲𝟐 𝐱𝐲 𝑛 σ 𝑥𝑦 − (σ 𝑥)(σ 𝑦)
𝑟=
79 147 6,241 21,609 11,613 2 2 2 2
𝑛(σ 𝑥 ) − σ 𝑥 𝑛(σ 𝑦 ) − σ 𝑦
76 143 5,776 20,449 10,868 12(183,222) − (1029)(2115)
𝑟=
78 147 6,084 21,609 11,466 12(88,733) − 1029 2 12(380,887) − 2115 2
𝑟 = 0.9270572554
84 168 7,056 28,224 14,112
𝒓 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟑
90 206 8,100 42,436 18,560
𝐱 𝐲 𝐱𝟐 𝐲𝟐 𝐱𝐲 𝑛𝐸 − 𝐴𝐵
𝑟=
79 147 6,241 21,609 11,613 (𝑛𝐶 − 𝐴2 )(𝑛𝐷 − 𝐵2 )
12(183,222) − (1029)(2115)
76 143 5,776 20,449 10,868 𝑟=
12(88,733) − 1029 2 12(380,887) − 2115 2
78 147 6,084 21,609 11,466 𝑟 = 0.9270572554
84 168 7,056 28,224 14,112 𝒓 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟑
90 206 8,100 42,436 18,560
Regression Analysis is a simple statistical tool used to model the dependence of a variable on one
or more explanatory variables. It is the method used to describe the nature of the relationship
between variables, that is, either positive or negative, linear, or nonlinear.
This functional relationship may then be formally stated as an equation, with associated statistical
values that describe how well this equation fits the data.
Simple linear regression is the least estimator of a linear regression model with a single predictor.
The least-square model determines a regression equation by minimizing the sum of squares of
the vertical distances between the actual y values and the predicted values of y. Meaning,
simple linear regression fits a straight line through the set of n points in such a way that makes
the sum of squared residuals of the model as small as possible. This method gives what is
generally known as the "best-fitting" line. The difference between an observed value and the
predicted value is called the residual. The mean of the residual is always zero. The points that
fall outside the overall pattern of the other points are known as outliers.
Linear Regression Equation
Linear Regression Equation
The following are the formulas that we will use for Regression Analysis:
𝑦ො = 𝑏1 𝑥 + 𝑏0
𝑛 σ 𝑥𝑦 − (σ 𝑥)(σ 𝑦)
𝑏1 =
𝑛 σ 𝑥2 − σ 𝑥 2
𝑏0 = 𝑦ത − 𝑏1 𝑥ҧ
Where:
𝑦ො = 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑦
𝑥 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒
𝑦 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒
𝑏1 = 𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒
𝑏0 = 𝑦 − 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒
𝑥ҧ = 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒
𝑦ത = 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒
Linear Regression Equation
The following are the formulas that we will use for Regression Analysis:
𝑦ො = 𝑏1 𝑥 + 𝑏0
𝑛 σ 𝑥𝑦 − (σ 𝑥)(σ 𝑦)
𝑏1 =
𝑛 σ 𝑥2 − σ 𝑥 2
𝑏0 = 𝑦ത − 𝑏1 𝑥ҧ
Where:
𝑦ො = 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑦
𝑥 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒
𝑦 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒
𝑏1 = 𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒
𝑏0 = 𝑦 − 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒
𝑥ҧ = 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒
𝑦ത = 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒
Linear Regression Equation
Example:
The owner of a chain of fruit shake stores would like to find the correlation between atmospheric temperature and sales
during the summer season. A random sample of 12 days is selected with the results given below. Compute for the value
of r.
Linear Regression Equation
Same Example from Correlation:
The owner of a chain of fruit shake stores would like to find the correlation between atmospheric temperature and sales
during the summer season. A random sample of 12 days is selected with the results given below. Compute for the value
of r.
𝐱 𝐲 𝐱𝟐 𝐲𝟐 𝐱𝐲
79 147
76 143
78 147
84 168
90 206
83 155
93 192
94 211
97 209
85 187
88 200
82 150
σ𝐱 = σ𝐲 = σ 𝐱𝟐 = σ 𝐲𝟐 = σ 𝐱𝐲 =
Linear Regression Equation
Same Example from Correlation:
The owner of a chain of fruit shake stores would like to find the correlation between atmospheric temperature and sales
during the summer season. A random sample of 12 days is selected with the results given below. Compute for the value
of r.
𝐱 𝐲 𝐱𝟐 𝐲𝟐 𝐱𝐲